Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer 7/9/26

为什么呢？

How come?

来看这段话，正是它拖垮了本季度的业绩。

Well, here's the paragraph that slew the quarter.

本季度业绩受到抑制，因为美国食品和饮料品类的表现放缓，消费者因通胀压力加大而收紧了预算。

Results were tempered in the in the quarter as US food and beverage category performance moderated with consumer budgets tightening due to rising inflation pressure.

这可是百事可乐新出来的说法。

Well, this is new verbiage from PepsiCo.

上个季度，首席执行官拉蒙·马圭尔还觉得自己已经把定价控制住了。

The previous quarter, CEO Ramon Maguire thought that he had pricing under control.

当时业绩在逐季改善，股价也表现强劲。

There have been sequential improvement and the stock was strong.

可现在，仅仅过了三个月，情况却恶化得多得多。

Now though, in just three months, things are looking much worse.

这个变化相当惊人，尤其是对于百事可乐这样备受尊敬的公司来说。

A pretty shocking development, especially for a well respected run company like PepsiCo.

这怎么就让我们措手不及了呢？

How did it take us by surprise?

也许我们华尔街的人就是一群自以为是的家伙。

Maybe we on Wall Street are just bunch snobs.

这个行业里那些做决策的大人物，根本不懂普通人的日子。

Most of the big trigger pullers in this industry don't know much about regular people.

他们从不去沃尔玛购物。

They don't shop at Walmart.

他们压根没进过美元树商店。

They've never been to a Dollar Tree.

他们大概也分不清六块钱一包的Fritos和七块钱一包的有什么区别。

And they probably don't know the difference between a $6 bag of Fritos and a $7 one.

他们从没想过，去便利店加油时，再买一包薯片，这笔额外开销加起来有多重。

They don't think about the added cost of a bag of chips on top of the money they spent at the pump when they go to the convenience store, which is a huge locus of snack spending.

所以我们全都震惊了，居然有人会对一包薯片涨价有意见。

So we were all aghast that there could be any pushback on the price of potato chips.

涨一美元真能有这么大的影响吗？

Could a dollar increase really make such a huge difference?

说实话，真的能。

Honestly, yes.

你看，华尔街那些人没考虑到两点。

See, the Wall Street guys aren't considering two things.

第一，汽油价格摆在眼前，大家都知道现在贵得离谱，比几个月前高多了，哪怕最近有点回落。

First, the price of gasoline is right in front of you, and we know it's exorbitant versus a few months ago, even as this pullback from ties.

汽油这么贵，消费者就不得不放弃一些像零食这样的开销。

When gas is that expensive, consumers need to give up on something like snacks.

以前一包薯片三美元的时候，根本不是事儿。

When a bag of chips was $3, it was not an issue.

但六美元呢？

But $6?

那可就是实实在在能省下的钱了。

Well, that's a real source of savings.

所以这次数据不及预期，确实让人感到震惊。

So there was genuine shock on this miss.

我一直很幸运，当了这么多年有钱人。

Now I've been lucky enough to be a rich guy for a long time.

听好了，我在这儿不玩虚的。

Look, I I play with an open hand here.

明白吗？

Okay?

我不会装模作样。

I'm not gonna pretend.

但我还记得穷的时候是什么滋味，我可以告诉你，让人难受的不是薯片本身的价格有多高。

But I remember what it was like to be poor, and I can tell you it isn't the absolute price of potato chips that has people upset.

而是价格没完没了地涨，年复一年地叠加，让上千万人觉得反胃。

It's the endless increases in price and the compounding of those price increases over the years that make tens of millions of people sick to their stomachs.

这个季度，我觉得一些最大的分销商实在忍不了了，要求降价。

This quarter, I think some of the largest distributors had enough and demanded price rollbacks.

我们知道沃尔玛承诺要下调价格。

We know that Walmart committed to rolling back prices.

事实上，他们在周一宣布降价时，特别点名了乐事薯片和百事可乐的饮料。

In fact, they specifically named Frito Lay chips and PepsiCo sodas in their announcement on price cuts on Monday.

如果沃尔玛施压百事可乐，要求他们降价，而价格却还在货架上居高不下，我一点都不意外。

It wouldn't shock me if Walmart forced PepsiCo's hand and demanded rollbacks as the price stayed in their aisles.

我觉得，正是传统超市的降价，加上便利店那令人震惊的高价，让百事可乐无论怎么努力都难以增长业务。

I think it was the rollbacks in the traditional grocers plus the sticker shock of the convenience stores that made it so no matter what PepsiCo did, it couldn't grow the business.

现在，他们已经尝试过各种办法来延缓这一刻的到来。

Now they've tried things to forestall this moment.

我知道他们想坚持自己的创新策略。

I know they wanna stick by their innovation playbook.

我理解这一点。

I respect that.

他们也是非常擅长削减成本的。

They're tremendous cost cutters too.

但也许他们只能咬牙承受损失，大幅降价了。

But maybe they just have to take the darn hit and cut the price of their products big time.

先拿下一大块市场份额，三个月后，回报自然会好很多。

Take a ton of market share, and then three quarters from now, they can have a much better return.

我和别人一样担心，这不过是价格缓慢下调的开始。

I fear as others do that this is the beginning of a slow roll back in pricing.

我觉得不如直接一刀切，干脆利落地处理。

I say rip the band aid off.

回到十年前的价格水平吧，别再一轮接一轮地涨价了，现实点吧。

Go back to prices from ten years ago before the endless increases and get realistic.

你要是频繁又大幅度地提价，面对现在这么注重健康、这么在意性价比的消费者，一袋零食的利润根本没你想象的那么高。

You raise prices too much, too often for a country that's now way obsessed, health obsessed, and g o b dash one obsessed, and you're just not gonna make as much money for a bag as you'd like to.

目前百事公司大约一半的销售额来自海外，这部分业务表现非常出色。

Now PepsiCo gets about half of its sales from overseas, and that business is terrific.

他们得把国际业务做得更大，才能缓解国内食品业务带来的压力。

They need to make international much bigger to lessen the impact of food related domestic pain.

说到底就是这么回事。

Here's the bottom line.

我现在担心，只有大幅降价才能扭转国内市场的下滑。

I fear now that only drastic pricing can reverse a domestic dive.

顺便说一句，我们在《街头喊叫》节目中采访拉蒙·马圭尔时，他对此持不同意见。

Something, by the way, the CEO Ramon Maguire disagreed with when we interviewed him on squawk on the street.

说实话，我觉得拉蒙并不是真的不同意我的看法。

In truth, I thought Ramon wasn't really disagreeing with me.

我觉得他当时是在跟股价的走势较劲，但作为一家上市公司的负责人，这么想可不太明智。

Think I he was suddenly disagreeing with the action in the stock, and that's actually not that great idea when you're running a publicly traded company.

我们现在连线纽约的克里夫。

Let's go to Cliff in New York.

克里夫。

Cliff.

克雷默先生，你真讨厌。

Boo you, mister Cramer.

太棒了

Booyah.

就像人们常说的

As they say in

在内衣广告里，我会尽量简短一点。

the underwear commercials, I'll try to be brief.

医疗健康类股票已经很久不被看好了。

Health care stocks have been out of favor for a long, long time now.

没错。

Right.

但说到CVS健康公司，你觉得是买入、卖出，

But when it comes to CVS Healthcare, would you say it's a buy, sell,

还是强烈买入。

or a It's a strong buy.

为什么？

Why?

因为大卫·琼纳已经从竞争中脱颖而出。

Because this David Joiner has come through the scrum.

我们哪里还能看到沃尔格林？

Where do we see a Walgreens?

它们已经寥寥无几了。

Very few of them.

瑞得艾德现在已经看不到了。

We don't see Rite Aid anymore.

他们已经退出市场了。

They're gone.

现在真正的竞争对手只有CVS和亚马逊，而CVS还拥有艾特纳。

The only real competitor is CVS is Amazon, and CVS is got Aetna.

亚马逊可没有艾特纳。

Amazon doesn't.

艾特纳的表现简直一骑绝尘。

Aetna is crushing it.

买CVS的股票吧。

Buy the stock of CVS.

我真希望自己当初为信托基金买了。

I sure wish I'd done it for my trust.

我们连线一下西弗吉尼亚的贾斯汀。

Let's go to Justin in West Virginia.

贾斯汀。

Justin.

嗨，吉姆。

Hey, Jim.

你最近怎么样？

How are doing?

我挺好的，贾斯汀。

I'm doing well, Justin.

你呢？

How about you?

我这边挺好的。

I'm doing great.

谢谢你抽出时间接我电话。

Thank you for taking my call.

能和您通话真是荣幸。

It's an honor to talk to you.

嗨。

Hey.

我正在看一只股票，它从2021年的高点下来了不少。

I'm looking at I'm looking at a stock that is down considerably still from its 2021 highs.

但今年到目前为止，涨得相当不错。

But year to date, it's had a heck of a run.

2026年到现在，它已经涨了将近70%。

It's up almost 70% in 2026.

吉姆，现在入手万豪酒店的股票是不是太晚了？不是。

Jim, is it too late to get into Marriott Hotels, No.

不是。

No.

还没到。

It's not.

不是。

No.

其实还没到。

It's actually not.

我觉得这是个长期赢家。

I think this is a long term winner.

我一直在说，哦，等等。

I've been saying this over oh, oh, hold it.

是万豪度假村还是万豪酒店？

Marriott Vacations or Marriott Hotels?

这是两个不同的故事，但我都喜欢。

Two different stories, but I like them both.

哦，度假这个还行。

Oh, the vac okay.

这是万豪度假。

That's Marriott vacation.

不如万豪酒店好。

Not as good as Marriott hotels.

我更喜欢万豪酒店。

I prefer Marriott hotels.

长期增长前景好得多。

Much better longer term growth.

抱歉我反应太急了。

I'm sorry that I reacted so quickly.

一听到万豪，我就特别喜欢。

I heard Marriott, and I liked it so much.

我实在忍不住了。

I couldn't restrain myself.

好吧。

Alright.

我担心，只有靠降价促销才能救得了百事可乐的股价。

I fear that only dress price cuts can save PepsiCo's stock.

这家公司本身很不错。

The company, it's a great company.

只是股价太高了，可能是因为菲多利的产品定价太贵。

It's just the stock's too hot because maybe Fritos are too high.

我们现在资金状况怎么样？

What's where we at money at?

‘预制产品’这个名字听起来可能不怎么吸引人，但仔细看看股价，其实挺有潜力的。

The name preformed products might not sound all that interesting, but a closer look at the stock reveals something promising.

我打算再深入研究一下。

I'm digging deeper.

那养老地产股是不是要迎来新的转机了？

Then are the senior housing stocks getting a new lease on life?

天哪，现在还有谁关注这些股票？

Boy, who's looking at them lately?

我要深入这个领域，彻底挖一挖。

I'm going off the charts to serve this space.

当然，今晚所有来电都快得像闪电战一样。

And, of course, all your calls, rapid fire tonight's decision to lightning round.

继续锁定克拉默的节目。

So stay with Cramer.

前几天，我接到一个来自马萨诸塞州萨姆的电话，他问起一家叫Preformed Line Products Company的公司，股票代码是PLPC。

The other night, I got this terrific call from Sam in Massachusetts who asked about a company called Preformed Line Products Company, PLPC.

我当时就跟他说，这可是个好机会。

I told him that he had a winner.

今晚我想再回头聊聊这个，因为这家公司正好搭上了美国科技基建的顺风车。

Tonight, I wanna circle back to it because this one's a beneficiary from the great American tech build out.

和许多其他数据中心概念股一样，过去一周半，它的股价跌得挺狠。

And like many other data center plays, the stocks come down hard over the past week and a half.

这家公司专门设计和制造各种关键部件，用于新建基础设施。

Now this is a company that designs and manufactures all sorts of stuff that's critical when you're building new infrastructure.

比如连接器、非常巧妙的解决方案、电缆固定装置，还有为电缆、线路和光纤网络提供的保护产品。

Things like connectors, fascinating solutions, cable holders, and protection products for cables, lines, fiber optic networks.

我知道。

I know.

听起来是有点枯燥。

Boring.

那又怎样？

So what?

但我们现在需要这些东西来搭建新的电力基础设施，为所有这些数据中心供电，这无疑会为Preformed Line Products带来更多业务。

That we need this stuff for the new electric infrastructure to power all these data centers, and that means more business for preform line products.

他们在高压输电和低压线路硬件领域占据主导地位。

They dominate the market for heavy duty transmission, lower line hardware.

数据中心内部也是如此。

Same goes for inside the data center.

这些公司生产的设备，是你在大型服务器仓库里布设大量线缆和光纤时必不可少的物理基础设施。

These guys make the physical infrastructure you need if you want to run bundles of wires and fiber optic cable throughout a big warehouse full of servers.

这个话题我几乎每天晚上都会聊。

Now, this is something I talk about practically every night.

对吧？

Right?

人工智能的热潮对硬件的需求极其庞大。

The AI boom is incredibly hardware intensive.

几十年来软件一直主导一切，现在却全然不同了——得盖起巨大的厂房，塞满设备，甚至还要新建发电厂来供电。

After decades where software was in charge, now it's all about setting up massive buildings, filling them with tech, and even building new power plants to supply them with electricity.

正因如此，像卡特彼勒这样的公司才成了人工智能领域的赢家。

That's how something like a caterpillar has become a big AI winner.

这也解释了为什么预成型线路产品公司持续领先。

And it's why preformed line products keeps winning.

在最近一个财季，这家公司业绩远超预期，环比增长高达24%。

In its latest quarter, the company delivered a monster earnings beat, 24% growth just versus the previous three months.

换句话说，这两者是关联的。

In other words, that's linked.

他们的销售额符合预期，但同比仍增长了19%。

Their sales were in line, but that still represented 19% year over year growth.

这只股票长期以来表现非常出色，复利效果很好。

And this stock's been a great long term compounder.

过去十二个月上涨了105%，今年至今也涨了67%。

It's up a 105% over the past twelve months and up 67% just year to date.

但六月股价冲上400美元后，现在又回落到了300到400美元之间。

But after soaring above 400 in June, the stock is now pulled back to the 300 and forties.

预成型线路产品的走势图，跟其他所有AI相关股票的走势一模一样。

The preformed line products chart looks like every other AI related stock chart.

今年大幅上涨，但最近稍微歇了口气。

A huge run this year that's taken a breather lately.

不过考虑到今天这一类股票又反弹了，我也不确定。

Although given how this group's bounced today, I don't know.

这段调整可能已经结束了。

The breather could be over.

不过话说回来，即使经历了这波上涨，Preformed的市值依然很小，还不到17亿美元。

That said, even after these gains preformed is still tiny, with a market cap of under $1,700,000,000.

现在入手肯定不算早，但你也未必就买晚了。

You're definitely not early if you buy it up here, but if but you might not be late either.

你看，这是一家规模不大的公司，但在电网升级和数据中心大规模建设中扮演的角色却越来越重要，而这些领域我们都知道还处于早期阶段。

See, this is a small company with an increasingly large role to play in grid upgrades and the great data center build out, which we know is still early.

而且Preformed在机器人和自动化领域也有一定的潜在机会。

And Preformed also has some potential exposure to robotics and automation.

他们甚至正在研发新一代的架空电力线路机器人安装系统。

They're even working on next generation robotic installation systems for overhead power lines.

萨姆这次真是捡到宝了。

Boy, does Sam have a good one here.

我刚接到这个电话时，第一反应是，这简直是个迷你版的Quanta。

At first when I got the call on this one, I called it a mini quanta.

这让我想起不久前节目中提到的一家公司，叫Sterling Infrastructure，给我留下了特别深的印象。

And it's also reminded me of an outfit that was on the show not too long ago that I really, really struck me as a great one called Sterling Infrastructure.

这家公司专门做施工、工程和承包，大量参与我们一直听说的电力基础设施和数据中心建设。

These are the guys doing the construction, engineering, contracting, buying a lot of the power infrastructure and data center build outs we keep hearing about.

我们曾经邀请过Sterling的首席执行官约瑟夫·库蒂洛来做节目。

We had Sterling CEO, Joseph Cutillo on the show.

那是2月27号的事。

That was February 27.

你猜怎么着。

Get this.

他们的股价当时是420美元。

The the the stocks are 420.

我是说，四百多块。

I mean, 400 twenties.

才过了几个月，现在就跌到70美元了。

Just a few months later, and it's down to 700.

过去十二个月里，股价涨了超过两倍。

It's up more than 200% over the past twelve months.

投资斯特林基础设施，已经算是不错的选择了。

You can do a lot worse than being in another Sterling infrastructure.

现在，斯特林旗下的Preform产品覆盖了AI基础设施栈的多个环节。

Now, Preform line products in Sterling operate in different parts of the AI infrastructure stack.

首先，斯特林是提供服务的，而Preform则生产实体产品。

To start, Sterling is a services provider while Preform makes physical products.

但它们的共同点是，都卡在了历史上最大规模建设之一的关键瓶颈上。

But they're similar in that they're both tied to key bottlenecks in one of the biggest build outs in history.

斯特林解决的是最前端的瓶颈——物理建设、工程设计和场地准备。

Sterling helps solve the bottleneck at the very beginning, physical construction, engineering and site prep.

Preform则解决的是电网数字化的瓶颈，安装先进导体，并提供连接和保护数据中心及电网核心设备的硬件。

Preform solves the bottleneck in digitizing the power grid, hanging the advanced conductors and providing the hardware that helps connect and protect the guts of the data center and the grid around it.

天哪，我觉得这两家公司都挺有前景的，市场似乎也认同我的看法。

Wow, I think both are good places to be and the market seems to agree with me.

这两家规模较小的公司，正好受益于数据中心建设所需的全部资本支出和相关系统连接。

These are two smaller companies that benefit from all the CapEx construction, everything that goes into a data center, and the systems connecting them.

从每一根电缆、每一条线路、每一个连接器，到让整个建设运转起来的每一件硬件，都离不开它们。

Every cable, every line, every connector, and every piece of hardware that makes the build out work.

Preform 还可能从白宫推动国内能源基础设施建设、保障电网安全的举措中获益。

Pre Farmed also has the potential benefit from the White House's efforts to bolster domestic energy infrastructure and secure the power grid.

比如今年四月，特朗普援引《国防生产法》，授权联邦政府进行采购、承诺采购，以及采取专业行动，扩大对美国基础设施至关重要的企业的制造和部署能力，Preform 就是其中之一。

Like when Trump invoked the Defense Production Act back in April, that order authorized federal purchases, purchase commitments, and expert action to expand manufacturing and deployment capacity for companies critical to American infrastructure, companies like Preform.

综合来看，我觉得 Preform 线路产品正契合当下的时机。

Put it all together, and I think Preform Lime Products is a good fit for this moment.

我并不是说这家公司肯定能拿到联邦政府的订单，但政府已经明确表达了它认为哪些领域是战略重点。

Again, I'm not saying the company will definitely get a check for Uncle Sam, but the government's telling you exactly what it thinks is strategic.

电网基础设施、导体、变压器、输电设备、变电站，以及围绕它们的整个供应链。

Grid infrastructure, conductors, transformers, transmission equipment, substations, and the supply chain around them.

这些正是 PLPC 的核心业务。

That's PLPC's bread and butter.

当你想到人工智能基础设施建设时，可能第一个不会想到这种公司，就像我开头提到的那些。

This kind of company might not be your first thought when you imagine what goes into the great AI build out, like what I talked about at the top of the show.

但在人工智能热潮之前，这家公司其实是个很普通的成长型企业。

But before the AI boom, this was a really pedestrian grower.

为什么呢？

Why?

你看，过去二十多年，美国的电网几乎没什么大发展。

Well, look, the electric grid hasn't grown much in this country in the last couple decades.

但现在，政府正投入巨资，让电网变得更快、更强大——说白了，就是让建设难度也相应增加了。

But now there's a colossal amount of spending to make the grid more much faster and more powerful, Certainly make it a little bit harder, so to speak.

我觉得PLPC正好搭上了市场最大趋势的顺风车。

I think PLPC is a great derivative player on the market's biggest theme.

考虑到最近股价回调，现在入手是个不错的时机。

I think you're getting a nice entry point here given the recent pullback.

没错。

Sure.

过去一年股价翻了一倍，但在如今这个极度关注数据中心的市场里，买一家市盈率35倍的公司股票，已经不算离谱了。

It's doubled over the last year, but I don't think it's crazy anymore to buy a stock like preform at 35 times earnings in this data center obsessed market.

这就是我们一位非常聪明的观众萨姆给我们提出的这个精彩想法的核心要点。

So here's the bottom line in this very cool idea that one of our brilliant viewers, Sam, brought to us.

Preform Line Products Company 虽然规模不大，却是人工智能基础设施建设中不可或缺的一环。

Preform Line Products Company is a small but critical part of the AI build out.

如果你认同这个故事，也相信这家公司到2028年能实现每股近13美元的盈利——这正是分析师们的预测——那我完全支持你现在就建仓。

If you believe in this story and you believe the company can earn nearly $13 per share in 2028, which is what the analysts are projecting, then you got my blessing to put us position on right here.

当然，理想情况下，股价还能再回调一点。

Now look, ideally, the stock would pull back a little bit more.

我之所以敢在这个位置进场，是因为我觉得数据中心的建设短期内根本不会放缓，而且股价其实已经回撤了不少。

You get bad in the position weakness because I don't see the data center build up slowing down anytime soon, but the stock has already pulled back.

我觉得你现在入手的价格已经好很多了，本来还以为得再等一阵子呢。

I see you're getting it at a much better level, and I thought you'd get anytime soon.

现在入手，正是回本的好时机。

Get money back at.

马上来

Coming

接下来登场的是华尔街反应最快的人，我们打算借助你们的帮助来考验他一下。

up, he's the fastest mind on Wall Street, so we're putting him to the test with your help.

接下来进入闪电问答环节。

Bring on the lightning round next.

俱乐部会员。

Club member.

吉姆，我想听听你对这家由创始人领导、利用人工智能试图颠覆万亿美元行业的公司的看法。

Jim, I wanted to get your thoughts on this founder led company using AI to try to disrupt a multi trillion dollar industry.

吉姆，这家公司的客户增长非常亮眼，故事也越来越有意思了。

Jim, the customer growth is impressive, and the story just keeps on getting more and more interesting.

吉姆，夏天来了。

Jimbo, Summer is here.

外面热得不行。

It's scorching outside.

所以吉姆，你对人工智能和这家公司怎么看？

So tell me Jim what do you think about some Al and and the one.

真希望他们

Wish they

能赚点钱，弗兰克。

could make some money Frank.

我的意思是，那会很好。

I mean that would be good.

你知道吗，要是他们真开始赚钱了，我会改变对他们的看法。

You know it would change my view of they started making money.

那样的话，这家公司和它的股票都会更有吸引力。

That would make it into a better stock and a better company.

不过我觉得你刚才的演讲非常出色。

But I think you put on a tremendous presentation.

我们连线一下俄亥俄州的内德，内德。

Let's go to Ned in Ohio, Ned.

克雷默教授，很高兴再次见到您。

Professor Cramer, good to done to you again, sir.

您今天过得怎么样？

How's your day going?

我今天？

My day going?

我觉得还算中规中矩吧。

I think it's fair to Midland.

有点这个，有点那个， mostly 那个。

I get a little of this, a little of that, mostly that.

这话是从别的节目抄来的。

That's a steal from another show.

您说吧。

Go ahead.

不好意思。

Sorry.

好的。

Okay.

我本来担心今天又排不上队，因为周二和周三我都去排队想跟您聊了。

Well, I was afraid I was gonna strike out today because I was in the queue to talk to you on Tuesday and then Wednesday.

所以之前两次都没轮上，今天总算成了，三回里中了一回。

So I was over two until today, and I'm one for three now.

嘿，多茨。

Hey, Dots.

第三十三号平均数，还有电话室的同事们表现太棒了。

Figure 33 average, and the phone room people are fabulous.

我特别喜欢电话室的同事们。

I love the phone room people.

是的，教授。

Yes, sir.

我想跟您聊聊一家公司，它提供的担保股息大约是3.7%。

I wanted to talk I I wanted to ask you about a company that pays a secured dividend of around 3.7%.

这家公司拥有或控制着数百万英亩的林地。

It has millions of acres of owned or controlled timberlands.

他们从事商业和住宅建筑用木材产品的业务。

It's in the construction wood products business for commercial and housing construction.

他们还涉足房地产领域。

They they're in real estate.

他们的股价跌了不少，但在我看来，以现在的利率来看，这倒是个不错的买入机会，而且未来还有增长空间。

They also their stock prices drifted down quite a bit, but, it seems to me it's it would be a pretty good buy with that interest rate, and it has room to grow over time.

这家公司叫威瑞豪瑟，先生。

The company is Weyerhaeuser, sir.

哦，威瑞豪瑟。

Oh, Weyerhaeuser.

明白了。

Okay.

问题是这样的，威瑞豪瑟。

Here's the problem, Weyerhaeuser.

如果利率上升，这只股票就会下跌，大家都觉得利率还会继续涨。

If rates go up, this stock goes down and people think rates are going higher.

如果你觉得利率最终会回落，那现在就是入手的好时机。

If you think rates are going to low going lower ultimately, then you would start buying the stock right here.

我对这只股票的看法比华尔街其他人都更乐观。

I'm more bullish on it than the rest of Wall Street.

我们连线纽约的萨尔。

Let's go to Sal in New York.

萨尔。

Sal.

吉姆，你最近怎么样？

Jim, how are you?

挺好，老兄。

Alright, buddy.

最近怎么样？

What's happening?

没什么大事。

Nothing much.

好的。

Alright.

几周前，你节目里请了联邦快递货运的首席执行官。

A couple of weeks ago, you had the CEO of FedEx Freight on your show.

是的。

Yeah.

继续持有吧，老兄。

Take your long, baby.

不过你们说他表现真棒。

But you guys he was awesome.

我的意思是，确实很棒。

I mean, it was awesome.

你们一直在聊他们运行的自动驾驶路线，但有个问题，吉姆。

And you guys are talking about all the autonomous routes that they're running, but there was only one issue, Jim.

你们根本没提是哪家公司为联邦快递货运运营这些路线，也没说这些路线有多成功，准点率和安全率有多高，还有他们那些出色的合作伙伴。

You didn't talk about the company who's running those routes for FedEx Freight and how successful those routes are and the on time percentage and the safety percentage and all the great partnerships that that company has.

吉姆，是时候请来Waymo的联合创始人克里斯·埃姆森了。

Jim, it's time for you to bring on Chris Ermson, the one of the co founders of Waymo.

该让你的节目请克里斯来做客了。

It's time for you to bring Chris on your show.

吉姆，你觉得Aurora创新这家公司怎么样？要不要请克里斯来？

Jim, what do you think about Aurora innovation and bringing Chris on?

我现在就给他打电话。

I'm calling him right now.

我简直等不及了。

I can't even wait.

好的。

Alright.

我们等到节目结束再说。

We're wait till the end of show.

我们马上请这位嘉宾上节目。

We're getting that fellow on the show.

我不会对Aurora创新做任何评判。

I am not going to make a determination on a roar innovation.

所以，Chris Urmson，他以前其实是Waymo的创始人。

So I guess Chris Urmson on that he used to be by the way is the founder of Waymo.

我打算好好聊聊这位先生。

I'm going to really build over this guy.

是的。

Yes.

全方位地深入探讨他的经历。

All over him.

但在他上节目之前，我不会下任何结论。

But I will not render a verdict until I have him on the show.

就是这样。

There it is.

现在我们连线亚利桑那州的哈维。

Now we're gonna go to Harvey in Arizona Harvey.

很高兴跟你聊天，吉姆。

Good to talk to you Jim.

谢谢你。

Your Thank you.

那我可能也聊聊股票吧。

Well I'll probably just talk stocks too.

也。

Too.

我的意思是，既然说到这儿了。

I mean, you know, while we're at it.

对吧？

Right?

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

其实我刚才给你打过电话。

The well, I was calling you.

我是个老工程师，所以喜欢卡彭特科技和Simplecast。

I I'm an old engineer, so I like Carpenter Technology, Simplecast.

我也喜欢，不只是因为卡彭特科技是费城最棒的公司之一。

And so do I and not just because it's car tech is one of Philly's best.

你的分析做得真不错。

You've got a terrific copy there.

这走势图也太漂亮了。

What a great chart too.

我觉得现在可以买一些，等它再跌一点也买，但 definitely 要在这儿加仓。

I think I would buy some here and buy some of the coming down, but definitely add some right here.

好了，各位，这就是闪电环节的全部内容。

And that ladies and gentlemen, of the lightning round.

闪电环节由嘉信理财赞助。

The lightning round is sponsored by Charles Schwab.

接下来，养老社区股票在动荡市场中会不会成为资金的安全港？

Coming up, could assisted living stocks be a safe haven for your money in a turbulent market?

克雷默将深入探究这个问题。

Cramer's going off the charts to find out.

下一个。

Next.

今天，我想聊聊我们这个时代一个伟大的长期增长故事，它跟数据中心一点关系都没有。

Today, I wanna tell you about one of the great secular growth stories of our era that really has got nothing to do with the data center.

说的是美国养老住房短缺的问题。

Talking about the senior housing shortage in this country.

几十年来，我们一直都知道美国人口正在老龄化。

And we've known about America's aging population base for decades.

我的同龄人越来越老，这事儿早就不是什么新鲜事了。

There's nothing new about my fellow baby boomers getting older and older.

但加上现在严重的老年住房短缺，一下子就有大把的钱可赚了。

But throw in massive senior housing shortage that we're having, and suddenly there's a lot of money major.

所以今天我们要深入探讨，有请丹·菲茨帕特里克帮忙。

That's why we're gonna go off the charts with the help of Dan Fitzpatrick.

他是个非常出色的分析师，创办了‘股市导师’，还主持自己的播客《菲茨因子》。

Oh, he's a terrific technician who's the founder of stock market mentor and the host of his own podcast, the Fitz factor.

我们来仔细看看一些表现最出色的老年住房类股票。

Take a closer look at some of the best performing senior housing stocks.

这些走势简直让人惊掉下巴。

You can't blow your socks off.

这些图表你根本不敢相信。

You can't believe these charts.

首先，让我先铺垫一下背景。

First, let me set the stage.

目前美国80岁以上的人口是1470万，到2030年将增长到近1900万。

The number of Americans over the age of 80 is set to grow from 14,700,000 today to nearly 19,000,000 by 2030.

这不到四年时间就增长了百分之三十。

That's a 30% increase in less than four years.

随着这些人年纪越来越大，到2030年，老年住房和辅助生活行业需要新建大约六十万个单元。

As these people get older, the senior housing and assisted living industry will need to build about 600,000 new units by 2030.

但在美国建新住房非常困难，而且我们都知道，老年住房的建设已经大幅放缓，跌到了十多年来的最低点。

But it's very hard to put up new housing in this country, and we know that senior housing construction slowed dramatically, shrinking to its lowest level more than a decade.

简而言之，老年住房的需求在加速上升，但供应却根本跟不上。

In short, demand for senior housing is accelerating, but supply just isn't keeping up.

在菲茨帕特里克看来，这意味着现有的老年住房资产价值很可能会大幅上涨。

As Fitzpatrick sees it, that means existing senior housing assets are likely to become a lot more valuable.

这里其实分两类不同的角色。

Now there are two distinct categories here.

一类是房东，也就是老年住房的业主；另一类是运营商，他们实际管理这些设施。

You've got the owners, basically landlords for senior housing, and then the operators who actually run these facilities.

菲茨帕特里克觉得，这里的投资机会到处都是。

Fitch thinks opportunities are all over the place here.

咱们先看看最大的那只股票的周线图吧？

Why don't we start with the weekly chart of the biggest one?

如果你关注这个领域，肯定知道是威乐泰尔。

The one everybody knows if you're following this industry, that's Welltower.

它是一家房地产投资信托公司，拥有美国最大的老年住宅组合之一。

It's a real estate investment trust that owns one of the largest senior housing portfolios in America.

威乐泰尔拥有房产，然后和不同的运营商合作来管理这些设施。

Welltower owns the law the real estate and partners with with different operators to manage many of them.

但归根结底，威乐泰尔就是个房东。

But ultimately, Welltower's a landlord.

从周线图上看，威乐泰尔过去三年一直保持着强劲的上涨趋势。

When you look at the weekly chart, you can see that Welltower's been in a magnificent three year uptrend.

走势太干净利落了。

That is so clean.

一点都没有要放缓的迹象。

No signs of slowing down at all.

这很合理。

And it makes sense.

他们在老年人口急剧增长的时代拥有大量养老住宅。

They own lots of senior housing in a world where the 80 demo is skyrocketing.

菲茨帕特里克指出，那条蓝色的40周均线显示了机构明显的买入行为。

Fitzpatrick points out that the forty week moving average, blue, okay, shows strong institutional buying.

每次威乐塔股价回调，价格都会回到这里看看。

Every time wealth tower share pulls back, the price will be at look at this.

专业投资者就会进场，大举买入。

And the professionals come in and they load up the truck.

交易区间的顶部说明，机构在股价涨到一定高度后就会撤出。

The top of the trading range shows you that how far the stock can run for these institutions back away.

还有一定的空间。

Some room there.

但帕特里克认为，这只股票还能继续上涨。

But Patrick believes this stock can keep chugging higher.

他认为你现在就可以入手Well Tower，但最好留点余地，在工作日再加仓一点。

He thinks you could buy well tower right here, right now, but you should leave room to buy a little more on weekdays.

也许下一次股价回调到40日或40周均线附近时再买。

Maybe the next time the stock pulls back to around its forty day forty week moving average.

稍微再低一点就行。

A little bit here.

明白了。

Okay.

这是一条非常稳固的支撑线。

And that's a very solid that's a very solid line of support.

这个图表真漂亮，各位。

That that's a very pretty chart, people.

接下来，我们聊聊像Pennant Group和National Healthcare Corp这样的养老地产运营商。

Next, let's talk about senior housing operators like Pennant Group and National Healthcare Corp.

看看Pennant的周线图。

Check out the weekly chart of Pennant.

天哪。

Oh, man.

作为老年社区的运营方，最大的开销不是人力，也不是运营成本。

As an operator of senior living communities, the biggest expense isn't people, isn't business.

抱歉，也不是房产。

I'm sorry, isn't buildings.

而是人力。

This is people.

明白吗？

Okay?

所以Pennant一直在引入人工智能，提升员工效率，用更少的人做更多的事。

That's why Penn has been embracing artificial intelligence to make its employees more efficient, basically do more with less.

菲茨帕特里克知道，Pennant在2024年底曾涨到36美元左右，之后回落了40%。

Fitzpatrick knows that Pennant peaked at around $36 in late twenty twenty four for pulling back 40%.

但从那以后，股价每次跌到22美元附近，都会有买家进场。

Since then though, the stock has repeatedly found buyers at the $22 level.

这支撑力度真不错。

Nice force support there.

接下来二十个月，股价横向盘整，形成了一个像碗一样的底部形态。

Over the next twenty months, penetrated sideways forming a round base that looks like a bowl.

我特别喜欢碗形整理形态。

I love bowl patterns.

每次股价下跌，机构投资者就会进场买入，把价格推上去，而且从来没停止过。

Basically, every time the stock comes down, institutional money managers would step up and and basically profit back up and they never stopped buying the stock.

就在几周前，下方37美元以下的所有卖盘都被消化光了。

Finally, just a couple weeks ago, this all that supply below 37, well, it was soaked up.

于是，同样的机构买盘把股价一路推得更高。

So the same institutional buying pushed pendant higher and higher.

现在，他们正以极高的成交量推高股价。

Now they're running it up on high volume at this point.

就在这里，你能明显看出成交量很大。

Right there, you can tell that's high volume.

最后，股价突破了37美元这个关键的阻力位。

At the end, the stocks broke it out above its key ceiling and resistance at 37.

今天，股价已经涨到40美元左右了。

Today, it cost about 40.

从这里走势的强劲程度来看，我得跟你说件事。

And and it's and based on the depth of the fright of the of the action here, I gotta tell you something.

这股票完全有可能冲到55美元。

This thing can sail to $55.

我同意菲茨的看法，年底前能到这个水平。

I agree with Fitz before the end of the year.

那可是一波相当不错的上涨。

That would be a very nice move.

你真得抓住这次机会。

You wanna be in on that move.

我看这里根本没什么阻力。

I don't see much resistance at all.

最后一个是国家医疗公司。

Last but not least, there's National Healthcare Corp.

看看日线图。

Take a look at the daily chart.

这家养老机构的业绩一直很稳定。

This is another operator of senior housing has been putting up good numbers.

菲茨帕特里克指出，国家医疗的股价经常回调到50日均线附近。

Fitzpatrick points out that National Healthcare is a reliable repeating pattern where the stock pulls back to the fifty day moving average.

然后机构投资者就会果断买入。

And then institutional buyers snap it up.

我的意思是，这种抢购的情况在别的股票上可不常见。

I mean, this is just different where people snap it up.

这条紫色线就是50日均线。

But this one is the purple line, the fifty day.

一旦股价涨得离50日均线太远，这些机构就会暂停操作，等更好的入场时机。

If the stock gets too far above the fifty day moving average, the same institution to close-up shop, wait for a better entry point.

过去一年里，我们已经看到这个模式出现了七次。

We've seen the same pattern seven times over the past year.

菲茨帕特里克说，这种模式需要一段调整期，才能再次启动新一轮上涨。

Now, Fitzpatrick do this kind of pattern needs periodic rest before it can trigger another rally.

他指出，国家医疗公司的股价多次形成平台整理，每次都为下一次买入创造了机会。

He points out that National Healthcare has experienced a series of flat tops that only led to next buying, next buying opportunity.

在五十日均线这个支撑位附近，这只股票的均线正慢慢跟上股价的走势。

As the floor support at the fifty day, this is another one that takes the fifty day, moving average gradually catches up with the share price.

他认为股价即将上行到一个新的台阶，但很快就会出现一次小幅回撤，那会是个不错的入场时机。

At this point, he thinks the stock's moving up to another level, but it won't be too long before we had another shallow pullback that could make for an excellent entry point.

这是你图表的最低点。

Here's the the bottom is bottom of the line of yours.

这三张图表简直不可思议。

These are three unbelievable charts.

我本来没打算讲丹的这个案例。

I had not Dan came into this.

我之前根本不知道有这么一个牛市。

I I did not know about this bull market.

很高兴他把这事儿带到了我们面前。

I'm glad that he brought it to us.

这表明像威乐塔、潘坦集团和国家医疗这样的高端养老地产股，都在稳步上涨。

It suggests that the senior housing plays like Welltower, Pennant Group, and National Healthcare are all gradually trending higher.

他认为你应该等回调时再出手。

He thinks you should wait for weakness and then pounce.

我很难不同意，因为高端养老住房的短缺问题，长期来看实在太严重了。

I find it hard to disagree because the senior housing shortage is phenomenal long term team.

事实上，我甚至想比他还激进一点。

As a matter of fact, I actually wanna be more aggressive than he is.

我觉得总有个地方会有更好的机会。

I'd like to say there's always a more market somewhere.

我向你保证，我一定帮你找到，就在这儿。

I promise I'd find it just for you right here, man.

钱。

Money.

我是吉姆·克莱默。

I'm Jim Cramer.

明天见。

See you tomorrow.

吉姆·克莱默在本播客中表达的所有观点均为他个人意见，不代表CNBC及其母公司或关联公司的立场，这些观点可能此前已通过电视、广播、互联网或其他渠道发布。

All opinions expressed by Jim Cramer on this podcast are solely Cramer's opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by Cramer on television, radio, internet or another medium.

您不应将克莱默的任何观点视为促成特定投资或采取特定策略的建议，而仅应将其视为他的个人看法。

You should not treat any opinion expressed by Cramer as a inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy but only as an expression of his opinion.

克莱默的观点基于他视为可靠的信息，但CNBC及其关联公司或子公司不保证其完整性和准确性，不应依赖这些信息做出决策。

Cramer's opinions are based upon information he considers reliable but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such.

如需查看完整的《疯狂金钱》免责声明，请访问cnbc.com/madmoneydisclaimer。

To view the full mad money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com/madmoneydisclaimer.

7月16日星期四，CNBC体育与Boardroom联手参与Fanatics Fest，探讨塑造体育未来的新理念与战略。

Thursday, July 16, CNBC Sport and Boardroom join Fanatics Fest for game plan, groundbreaking ideas shaping the future of sports plan.