Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer 8/21/26

这些东西我都懂。

I know this stuff.

而且大多数专业人士，他们其实就想要你的手续费。

And most of the professionals, they they kind of just want your fees.

我不帮别人管钱，我自己也不买股票，除了我的教堂信托。

I'm not managing anyone else's money and I don't own stocks except for my chapel trust.

所以我把赚来的钱捐给慈善机构，然后带着你一步步了解怎么管理CBC投资俱乐部的信托。

So I give away my winnings to charity and I walk you through the whole process of running the trust for the cbc investing club.

这跟华尔街那套完全相反。

It's the anti well establishment.

不是看起来那样。

It's not look.

光出来告诉你我喜欢哪些股票是不够的，因为如果你不理解它们，你就没法真正拥有它们。

It's not just enough to come out here and and tell you which stocks I like because you can't own them if you can't understand them.

你必须知道自己买的是什么。

Knowing what you own is a must.

这是我的核心原则之一。

It's one of my cardinal rules.

就是说，如果你对自己拥有的东西和持仓没有清楚的了解，当股票走势不利时，你根本不知道该怎么办。

Says if you don't have a good grasp of how you owe of what you own and what your holdings are, you won't have any idea what to do when the stocks turn against you.

相信我，不可避免的，某个时候，它们会跌的。

And believe me, inevitably, some point, they will.

你无法知道何时该持有，何时该卖出，借用股票大师凯特·罗杰斯那句不朽的话。

You can't know when to hold them and know when to fold them in the immortal words of stock sage Kate Rogers.

除非你清楚自己到底持有的是什么，以及什么可能会让你卖出。

Unless you know what the heck it is that you're actually holding and what might make you fold.

不幸的是，华尔街那些晦涩难懂的术语泛滥，让你更难知道自己想要什么。

Unfortunately, the profusion of arcane terminology on Wall Street makes it much harder to know what you want.

所以让我们继续词汇课，再学一个极其重要的术语，它经常被使用，但几乎没人给你解释过。

So let's continue our vocabulary lesson with another ultra important piece of verbiage that's hardly ever explained to you even though it's used constantly.

风险回报。

Risk reward.

风险回报分析基本上就是短线选股的核心。

The risk reward analysis pretty much defines short term stock picking.

那它到底是什么意思呢？

So what does it mean?

好。

Alright.

我们把它拆开来看。

Let's break it down into into its component parts.

评估风险就是搞清楚最坏的情况。

Assessing risk is all about figuring out the downside.

你在某只股票上可能亏多少钱？

How much you potentially stand to lose in a given stock?

短期内它能跌到多深？

How far can you consistently fall in the near term?

而评估回报呢，就是看它可能涨多少。

Assessing the reward, on the other hand, means figuring out the potential upside.

如果一切顺利，这只股票能涨多少？

How much the stock could rally if everything goes right?

太多投资者在分析股票时只关注潜在的上涨空间，这是一个非常大的错误。

Too many investors only focus on the potential upside when they're analyzing stocks, and that is a great, great mistake.

对你来说，理解风险这一面要重要得多，因为大亏损带来的痛苦远比同等规模盈利带来的快乐要强烈得多。

It's much more important for you to understand the risk side of the equation because the pain from a big loss hurts a lot more than the pleasure from an equivalent size gain.

相信我。

Trust me.

但具体怎么计算风险回报比呢？

But how exactly do we figure out the risk reward?

好的。

Okay.

这取决于两类不同的投资者群体。

These are determined by two different cohorts of investors.

回报，也就是上涨空间，取决于成长型基金经理愿意为这只股票支付多少钱。

The reward, the upside is defined by how much growth oriented money managers could be willing to pay for stock.

他们决定了顶部。

They create the top.

风险，也就是下行空间，是由价值型基金经理的行为决定的。

The risk, the downside is created by what what value oriented money managers do.

价值型基金经理在下跌过程中愿意支付的价格，决定了底部。

What value or money managers would pay on the way down, they create the bottom.

要判断风险，你需要考虑在下跌过程中，价值型投资者会在什么价位开始买入。

To figure out the risk, you need to consider where the value guys will start buying on the way down.

要判断上行空间，你需要思考在上涨过程中，即使最看多的成长型投资者也会在什么价位开始卖出。

To solve for the war, you need to think about where even the most bullish of growth guys will start selling on the way up.

当被问到时，我通常会把风险回报比简化成一个粗略的估计，比如涨五跌三。

When you when asked, I usually boil the risk reward down to something quick and dirty, like five up, three down.

但我是怎么得出这个结论的呢？

But how do I get there?

你怎么知道成长型基金经理会在什么价位开始卖出，价值型投资者会在什么价位开始买入呢？

How do you know where growth money money managers will start selling and value guys will start buying?

好的。

Okay.

要做到这一点，你需要了解他们的思维方式，这又需要翻译另一个华尔街的行话。

For that, you need some insight into how they think, and that requires translating another piece of esoteric Wall Street lingo.

它叫做“合理价格下的增长”。

It's called growth at a reasonable price.

顺便说一句，我真的很相信这一点。

I really believe this, by the way.

合理价格下的增长，简称GARP。

Growth at reasonable price, a k a GARP.

当我们谈论合理价格下的增长时，这不是主观的。

When we talk about growth at reasonable price, that's not subjective.

这是一种分析股票的方法，最早由传奇人物彼得·林奇推广，通过比较股票的增长率与其市盈率来判断。

It's a method of analyzing stocks first popularized by the legendary Peter Lynch by comparing a stock's growth rate to its price earnings multiple.

如果你想弄清楚增长型投资者愿意为一只股票支付的最高价格，你需要能够按照GARP的视角来看待世界。

If you wanna figure out the maximum the growth guys would be willing to pay for a stock, you need to be able to look at the world according to Gar.

你想从彼得·林奇那里学到更多吗？

You wanna learn more from Peter Lynch?

这很简单。

It's easy.

去亚马逊买一本《华尔街》或者《战胜华尔街》。

Go to Amazon and buy one of them Wall Street or beat the street.

这两本书是有史以来最重要的投资书籍之一。

These are two of the most important investment books ever written.

现在这里有一个简单实用的经验法则，几乎从未让我失望过，虽然也有一些例外。

Now here's a quick and dirty rule of thumb that's hardly ever let me down, although there are some exceptions.

这个法则能真正帮助我们判断一只股票是否被高估或低估，基于成长型和价值型经理愿意支付的价格。

A rule that can really help us figure out when a stock might be overvalued or undervalued based on what the growth and value managers would be willing to pay.

如果一只股票的市盈率低于其增长率，那么这只股票可能很便宜。

If a stock has a price earnings multiple that's lower than its growth rate, then that stock's probably cheap.

而任何市盈率超过其增长率两倍的股票，可能就太贵了。

And any stock selling at a multiple that's more than twice the size of its growth rate, probably too expensive.

所以如果一只股票的市盈率是20倍，而它的增长率是10%，那它可能没有太多上涨空间了。

So if a stock's trading 20 times earnings and it has a growth rate of 10%, then it it probably doesn't have much more upside.

它已经达到了增长率两倍的上限。

It's reached the two times growth ceiling.

永远记住这一点。

Always remember that.

这里还有一条华尔街的秘诀，可以帮你简化这个过程。

Here's another piece of Wall Street shippers that can help simplify the process.

就是PEG比率，P-E-G。

The peg ratio, p e g.

也就是市盈率除以长期增长率，或者说市盈率除以长期增长率。

That's the price to earnings to growth rate or the p e multiple divided by a stock's long term growth rate.

PEG小于等于1非常便宜，大于等于2就贵得离谱了。

A peg of one or less is extremely cheap, and two or higher is prohibitively expensive.

卖，卖，卖。

Sell, sell, sell.

一个高增长的超级成长股，即使市盈率高达40倍，也可能仍然便宜，因为如果它的长期增长率超过40%，那么它的市盈率与增长率之比（PEG）就只有1，正好处于便宜的区间，而且如果增长持续加速，股价就会不断创出新高。

A high octane supervast grower could suffer 40 times earnings and still be inexpensive because if it has a 40% plus long term growth rate, giving it a peg of just one right at the cheap end of the spectrum, and the growth keeps excel kept accelerating, sending the stock to a new high after new high.

我觉得这很有道理。

That makes sense to me.

这些数字我是怎么得出的呢？

Where did I come up with these numbers?

观察。

Observation.

那些价值投资者会被市盈率与增长率之比（PEG）为1或更低的股票吸引，这为股价提供了一个底部支撑。

The value investors who will be attracted to stocks selling at pegs of one or less create a floor.

如果股票的市盈率等于或低于其增长率，你通常能找到买家。

You'll usually be able to find a buyer if the stock's multiples at or below its growth rate.

成长型投资者在买入高市盈率股票时，几乎不会支付超过增长率两倍的价格，也就是PEG为2，这意味着股价几乎不可能再涨得更高。

The growth investors should be buying high multiple stocks hardly ever pay more than twice the growth rate, a peg of two, which means there's almost no way that stocks go higher.

就拿谷歌来举例吧，那时候它还有超强的增长势头，长期增长率高达30%。

So stick with the example of Google back when it still held that mega growth mojo with a 30% long term growth rate.

如果它交易到60倍市盈率，那它就会变成卖出的对象。

It would have be become it become a sell if it traded to 60 times earnings.

这太高了，自从节目开播以来，这么多年我反复学到这一点。

Just too darn high as I have learned over and over and over again since the show began, oh, so many years ago.

就像我的其他方法或者别人的方法一样，这个方法也只是粗略的估算，带点主观性。

Like with any of of of my methods or anyone else for that matter, this one is rough approximation, a bit of subjectivity.

它很有用，尤其是在你试图评估风险回报的时候，但它并不总是正确的。

It's useful, especially when you're trying to figure out the risk reward, but it's not always right.

而且它只适用于那些基于盈利交易的公司，不适用于那些不盈利、股票基于销售额交易的公司。

And it only applies to companies that trade on earnings, not unprofitable companies with stocks that trade on sales.

另外，股票经常因为盈利预期过高而显得便宜。

Plus, stocks will often get cheap on an earnings basis simply because the estimates are too high.

在经济放缓的时候，你经常能看到这种情况。

You see this all the time going into a slowdown.

在这种情况下，股价可能会跌到远低于增长率一倍的底部。

In those cases, the stock could trade well below the one times growth floor.

它的市盈率与增长率之比可能会一直往下掉。

Its peg could just keep sinking and sinking.

而且它看起来便宜，其实是个价值陷阱。

And the fact that it looks cheap, it's a value trap.

这不是买入信号。

It's not a buy signal.

另一方面，买入周期性股票的最佳时机，比如那些烟囱工业类的股票，是在它们的市盈率看起来高得离谱的时候，因为那时候盈利预期太低了，需要上调才能跟上现实。

On the other hand, the best time to buy cyclical stocks, think the smokestack industrial types, is when their multiples look outrageously expensive because the earnings estimates are way too low and need to be raised to catch up with reality.

这种情况发生在经济触底即将反弹的时候。

That happens when the economy is bottoming and about to rebound.

归根结底，要了解你买的是什么，也要知道别人愿意出多少钱买。

The bottom line, know what you own and know what others will pay for.

这意味着在买任何东西之前，你需要理解风险回报，潜在的下跌和上涨空间，搞清楚成长型投资者会把天花板设在哪里，价值型投资者会把地板设在哪里。

That means you need to understand the risk reward, the potential downside and potential upside before you purchase anything by figuring out where the growth investors put in the ceiling and where the value investors create the floor.

来自内华达州的尼古拉斯。

Nicholas in Nevada.

尼古拉斯。

Nicholas.

你好。

Hello.

最近怎么样，克莱默先生？

How's it going, mister Cramer?

我是来自内华达州拉斯维加斯的尼克·米歇尔。

This is, Nick Michelle from Las Vegas, Nevada.

我现在是加州的一名大一新生，想自己创办一家投资管理公司。

I'm a college freshman out here in California trying to start my own investment management company.

我就是想听听一些快速建议，可能有点个人化的，关于从大一新生的角度怎么运营公司。

I was just looking for some quick advice and kind of personal, I guess, on how to run that from a freshman's perspective.

好的，我跟你说，你还年轻，这意味着你得选一些风险更高的股票，比我平时在节目里讲的要激进一些。

Well, I'll tell you, you're young, and that means you have to go with higher risk stocks than I typically talk about on the show.

可能是一些小盘股，或者生物科技股，也可能是那些在人工智能领域刚起步的公司。

Maybe some smaller cap stocks, maybe some biotechs, maybe some companies that are on the ground floor of AI.

我不希望你手里全是那些老公司，因为就算它们倒闭了，你还有一辈子时间可以赚回来。

I don't want you to be loaded up with companies that are older because you have your whole life to make it back if they go away.

我们很多年纪大一点或者中年的观众可承受不起这种情况。

A lot of our older viewers and middle middle aged viewers cannot afford that to happen.

所以选那些高风险、潜在高回报的股票吧。

So go with high risk, potentially high reward stocks.

来自爱荷华州的马克，马克。

Mark in Iowa, Mark.

嗨，吉姆。

Hi, Jim.

我是快乐俱乐部会员，谢谢你接听我的电话。

I'm a happy club member, and thank you for taking my call.

谢谢你成为俱乐部会员。

Thank you for being a member of the club.

这太棒了。

It's terrific.

有什么可以帮你的？

How can I help?

嗯，吉姆，我有个关于房地产的问题想问你。

Well, Jim, I have a real estate question for you.

好的。

Okay.

高利率让家庭更难负担新的房贷。

Higher interest rates make it more difficult for families to afford a new mortgage.

这对包含独栋和多户住宅的房地产投资信托基金（REITs）会有什么影响？

What effect will this have on REITs containing single and multifamily units?

我觉得它们会面临压力，而且你问这个问题很自然。

Well, I think they're gonna be under pressure, and I think it's natural that you asked that question.

这也是我不推荐那些股票的原因之一，因为你确实想到了这些股票的克星是什么。

And it's one of the reasons why I'm not recommending any of those stocks because you correctly have thought about what is the nemesis of those particular stocks.

只要你理解了选股时的风险回报、成长股合理价格和市盈率相对增长比率，你就能更好地知道自己该付出什么，更重要的是，知道别人愿意出多少钱。

Now as long as you understand the risk reward, the GARP and the peg ratio associated with picking stocks, you're much better prepared to know what you owe and know what your what others, more importantly, will pay for.

接下来还有更多《疯狂金钱》的内容。

Now much more Mad Money.

你知道轮动和回调之间的区别吗？

And do you know the difference between a rotation and a correction?

我还没破解完华尔街的密码呢。

I'm not done cracking the Wall Street code.

当克拉默教授翻开字典的时候，你最好坐稳了。

And you better be seated when professor Cramer opens the dictionary.

另外，我和我的同事杰夫·马克斯会回答你们所有热门的投资问题，所以请继续收看。

Plus, my colleague, Jeff Marks and I are taking all of your burning investing questions, so stay with.

接下来，你能从一瓶牛奶中学到什么重要的投资教训？

Coming up, what big investment lesson can you learn from a bottle of milk?

克拉默会一直忙到牛回家。

Cramer's working till the cows come home.

请继续收看。

Keep it here.

自己管理钱财其实没那么吓人，只要有个翻译，比如像我这样的人，帮你解读那些专家们谈论股票时故意用的晦涩术语。

Managing your own money is a whole lot less daunting than it seems when you have a translator, someone like me, who can help you to code the intentionally obscure terminology that the experts use to talk about stocks all the time.

这就是为什么我一直在电视上给你们提供我的华尔街行话转英语词典，让你们能看透那些神秘和难懂的东西。

And that's why I've been giving you my televised Wall Street gibberish to English dictionary so that you can see through the mystery and understanding of and understanding.

我得讲讲投资的核心要点。

I gotta get to the essentials of investing.

这是我能做的最重要的事情。

It's the most important thing I can do.

这就是我的工作。

That's what I do for a living.

到目前为止，我一直在解释那些听起来复杂但其实很简单的术语。

So far, I've been explaining the complicated sounding pieces of jargon that are actually pretty simple.

这些是我们每天在CBC投资俱乐部做的事情，但难度是双向的。

Stuff we do every day at the CBC Investing Club, But the difficulty goes in two directions.

就像有很多概念看起来复杂得误导人，也有很多术语比它们表面看起来要复杂得多。

Just as there are many concepts that seem misleadingly complicated, there are also plenty of other terms that are much less simple than they appear.

拿交易和投资这两个概念来说吧。

Take the notion of a trade versus the notion of investment.

很多人说这两个词可以互换，没什么区别，但事实远非如此。

A lot of people say these two words are interchangeable, that there's no difference, but that couldn't be further from the truth.

它们是截然不同的。

They're distinct.

借用九十年代股市大师后代那句不朽的话，你得把它们分开。

And in the immortal words of those nineties stock gurus offspring, you got to keep them separate.

这难道不是在吹毛求疵吗？像我这样发量堪忧的人可不该这么做。

Isn't this just splitting hair, something that's not recommended for the follicle challenge like myself?

不是吗？

Isn't it?

这可是个SAT每日一词，可能会让你去翻真正的词典。

That's a SAT word of the day that might send you searching for a real dictionary.

才不是呢。

Nope.

交易和投资不是一回事。

A trade is not the same as an investment.

如果你把两者混为一谈，如果你把交易当成投资，那就违背了我交易的第一条戒律，就像《洛奇3》里那位真正的T先生说的那样。

And if you treat the one like the other, if you treat a trade, if you turn a trade into investment, breaking my first commandment of trading that in true Mr.

我对你投资组合的预测就是：痛苦。

T fashion, allied best of the Rockies, Rocky three, my prediction for your portfolio is pain.

当你把买股票当作交易时，你是在为一个具体的催化剂而买，也就是某个你预期会推动股价上涨的未来事件。

When you buy a stock as a trade, you're buying for a specific catalyst, some anticipated future event you think will drive the stock higher.

也许这家公司即将公布季度业绩，而你认为它会交出超出预期的成绩单。

Maybe the company is about to report its quarterly results and you think it will deliver better than expected numbers.

不过我不建议去赌财报，因为单份财报里变数太多，太混乱，即使业绩亮眼，股价也可能被砸得很惨。

Although I don't recommend trying to gain earnings, there's just too much chaos and confusion in individual earnings report, which can cause the stock to get clobbered, even if delivered stellar numbers.

这个催化剂也可能是你预测的某个事件的消息。

The callous can be news about some event you're predicting.

比如，一家制药公司的新药获得FDA批准，或者甚至只是某个你预期会积极的临床试验数据。

For example, let's say a pharma company getting FDA approval for a big new drug or even just some clinical trial data you think will be positive.

这些数据点如果朝着你预期的方向发展，就能推动股价上涨。

These are data points that can send a stock story if they go your way.

所以当你做一笔交易时，你要知道，在催化剂事件发生前有一个买入时机，事件发生后有一个卖出时机。

So when you make a trade going into it, you know that there's a moment to buy before the catalyst and a moment to sell after the catalyst happens.

有时候你的交易不会成功。

Sometimes your trades won't work out.

你等待的事件不会发生。

The event you're waiting for won't happen.

或者你预期的数据点结果不如你想象的那么乐观。

Or maybe the data point you're expecting simply turns out to be less positive than you expected.

不管怎样，当你把买股票当作一笔交易时，它是有保质期的。

Either way, when you buy a stock as a trade, it has a limited shelf life.

你只会在一个短暂的时间窗口内想持有它。

There's only a brief window where you want to own it.

一旦窗口期过去，你就必须卖出。

Once the window passes, you must sell.

希望你能成为那个正确的催化剂，然后赚上一笔不错的收益。

Hopefully, you'll turn out to be the right the right catalyst and you'll rack up a nice game.

这种情况确实会发生。

That happens.

没必要继续耗着。

No point in sticking around.

赶紧落袋为安，在利润蒸发之前锁定收益。

Ring the register and lock in your profits before they evaporate.

但如果你判断错了，那猜猜会怎样？

But if you try to be wrong, well, guess what?

你还是得卖。

You still need to sell.

我希望你这样想。

I want you to think of it like this.

你买一瓶牛奶，过了保质期就不会再喝了。

When you buy a bottle of milk, you don't drink it after the expiration date.

对吧？

Right?

你会把它扔掉。

You throw it away.

交易的逻辑其实很相似。

The logic of trading is pretty similar.

你不能因为多买一点就把它叫做长期投资，因为如果没有催化剂，你就没有理由持有这只股票，而且你永远不应该在没有理由的情况下持有任何东西。

You can't just buy more and call it a longer term investment because without the catalyst, you got no reason to own the darn stock and you never ever should own anything without a reason.

我见过无数人因为把交易变成投资而亏钱。

I've watched an endless parade of people lose money by turning trades into investments.

他们为在股票过了保质期之后还继续持有找各种借口。

They come up with alibis for staying in a stock long after its expiration date.

他们真的在自欺欺人，以为自己做得对，但结果往往是被市场狠狠教训。

They're really fooling themselves into believing they're doing the right thing, and then more often than not, they get crushed.

所以记住，没有催化剂，你就没有交易。

So remember, without a catalyst, you don't have a trade.

如果你发现自己处于那种情况，那你最好卖掉并止损。

If you find yourself in that position, then you better sell and cut your losses.

没有催化剂，就没有意义。

No catalyst, no point.

另一方面，投资是基于长期的投资逻辑。

An investment, on the other hand, is based on a long term thesis.

也就是认为一只股票有潜力在很长一段时间内为你赚大钱。

The idea that a stock has the potential to make you serious money over an extended period of time.

你不仅仅是在押注某一个具体的催化剂。

You're not just banking on one specific catalyst.

你期待的是公司在不远的将来会发生很多好事。

You're expecting many good things will happen in the company's not too distant future.

但这并不是说买了股票就可以不管不顾了。

And that's not an excuse to buy a stock and then forget about it, though.

投资也可能出错，所以我一直告诉你们，买入股票后要持续审视它们。

Investments can go wrong too, which is why I'm always telling you to keep examining your stocks after you buy them.

这叫买作业，不是买股票。

That's called buying homework, not buying whole.

当然，我们在CBC投资俱乐部里，会帮你做这些功课，针对我们的慈善信托股票。

Of course, we help you with that homework for our charitable trust names in the CBC Investment Club.

所以，当你喜欢的股票作为投资在短期内下跌时，只要基本面仍然稳健，加仓是合理的。

So when a stock you like as an investment goes down in the short term, it makes sense to buy more as long as the fundamentals are still sound.

相应的，你也不会在股票第一次上涨时就急着卖出。

The corollary here is that you don't ring the register after the first time the stock jumps at price.

作为投资，你追求的是更长期、更大的收益。

With an investment, you're looking for a longer gains, larger gains.

你要做的不是短线买卖，而是以更长的时间周期来衡量。

And what you do is you measure it not in terms of trade and sell, but it's a much longer period of time.

再说一遍，这就是我们在投资俱乐部里做的事情。

And again, that is what we do at the investment club.

说到底，华尔街那些术语并不都是那么复杂难懂。

Bottom line, not all Wall Street gibberish is aceptively complicated.

有些东西其实很简单，比如交易和投资之间的区别。

Some of it's aceptively simple, like the distinction between a trade and investment.

别把这两者搞混了。

Don't confuse them.

记住，它们不是一回事。如果你因为某个催化剂去做交易，不管成功还是失败，最后却把它当成投资，那就是大错特错。投资是对企业未来的长期押注。

Remember, they're not the same, and it's a big mistake to turn a trade based on a catalyst, whether successful or unsuccessful, into an investment, which is a long term bet on the future of the business.

他们的钱回来了。

Their money's back.

休息一下。

Break.

接下来，要是市场能像乔·迪马乔那样可靠就好了。

Coming up, if only the market were as reliable as Joe DiMaggio.

当行情变绿的时候，别忘了洋基快艇。

When the tape turns red, remember the Yankee Clipper.

克莱默接下来会解释。

Cramer explains next.

欢迎回到《疯狂金钱》的“华尔街黑话翻译成大白话”特辑。

Welcome back to the Wall Street gibberish to plain English translation guide edition of Mad Money.

今晚我一直在解释那些特别晦涩难懂的投资概念和金融术语，帮你成为更好的投资者，让理财这件事看起来没那么吓人。

All night, I've been explaining overly arcane and esoteric investing concepts and financial jargon to help you become a better investor and make the whole process of managing money seem less daunting.

那你还需要知道什么呢？

So what else you need to know?

好。

Okay.

这里有一个业内最让人头疼、也最容易被误解的术语。

Here's one of the most dreaded and poorly understood terms in the business.

回调。

Correction.

这名字起得可真委婉。

What a euphemism.

所谓回调，就是市场之前一路高歌猛进，然后突然掉头，接着被狠狠打压。

A correction is when after the market's been roaring, it turns around, and then it gets crushed.

可能跌幅高达10%，让你觉得世界末日要来了，天要塌了，你这辈子再也不想碰股票了。

Maybe the client was as much as 10%, making you feel like the world is ending, of course, the sky is falling, and you never want to own another stock again in your life.

但这恰恰是错误的反应。

And that's precisely the wrong reaction.

虽然感觉很难受，但股市从回调中恢复过来是常有的事。

It may feel horrible, but stocks can come back from corrections.

它们总是能从大幅下跌中反弹，尤其是在经历了一波大涨之后。

They bounce back from big declines all the time, especially coming off a major run higher.

你可以这样想。

Think of it like this.

就像乔·迪马吉奥连续56场比赛都有安打，但第二天没上垒，这并不意味着你以后再也赚不到钱了。

When the market goes on a 56 game hitting streak like Joe DiMaggio and then doesn't get on base the next day, that doesn't mean you'll never make money again.

这也不意味着你所有的持仓都会被摧毁。

It doesn't mean all your holdings will be pulverized.

这只是当市场涨得太快太猛时会发生的情况，所以你应该预期到回调。

It's just what happens when we go up, say, too far too fast, and that's why you should expect corrections.

这种情况可能发生在个股上，也可能发生在整个市场指数上。

They can happen to an individual stock and index the whole market.

甚至债券也可能出现这种情况，就像我们在2022年开始的那场大债券回调中看到的那样，然后在2023年春天又卷土重来。

They could even happen to bonds as we saw in a great bond retreat that started in 2022, then rage beginning in the spring of twenty twenty three.

而且你很可能永远无法预见这些回调，所以你不应该因为没能提前预料到而自责。

And you'll most likely never see these corrections coming, so you shouldn't beat yourself up for not anticipating them.

抛售是股市中很自然的现象。

Sell offs are a natural feature of the stock market landscape.

我知道，我们不必喜欢它们。

We don't have to like them, I know.

但我们确实需要承认，无论怎样，它们都会发生。

But we do need to acknowledge that they will happen no matter what.

所以当它们不可避免地迎面而来时，你不应该慌乱，更不应该恐慌。

So you shouldn't get flustered or worse, panic when they inevitably smack you right in the face.

我再给你讲一个投资术语：执行。

Let me give you another piece of investing vocabulary, execution.

这个比较难，因为它相对主观。

Now this is a tough one because it's comparatively subjective.

我们说的执行力，是指管理层落实计划的能力。

When we talk about execution, we mean management's ability to follow through with its plans.

当你持有一只股票时，执行力相关的风险有很多种，比如并购搞砸了、新产品发布失败、成本控制不好。

When you own a stock, there are all kinds of risks associated with execution, messed up mergers, failed new product launches, bad cost controls.

糟糕的管理团队能把生意搞砸的方式几乎是无穷无尽的。

The number of ways a bad management team can screw up is business is practically infinite.

这也是我喜欢那些有成熟管理团队的公司的一个原因，因为他们不太容易犯这种非受迫性失误。

That's one of the reasons why I like companies with proven management teams, because they're much less likely to make these kinds of unforced errors.

这也是为什么，比如说，当我在节目里请CEO来访谈时，你认真听非常重要。

And it's a big reason why, for instance, it's so important for you to pay attention when I bring CEOs on the show with those interviews.

没有人比经营公司的人更了解这家公司。

Nobody knows a company better than the people running it.

而且既然你不太可能亲自给这些CEO打电话，你就想在节目里亲耳听听他们怎么说自己的生意。

And since you probably can't get these CEOs on the phone yourself, you wanna hear what they have to say about their business firsthand on the show.

执行这个概念在理解为什么值得为行业龙头公司多花钱时也至关重要。

This notion of execution is also crucial when it comes to understanding why it's worth paying up for best of breed companies.

这里要特别强调，行业龙头。

Big emphasis here, best of breed.

任何行业里的顶尖公司，几乎都拥有经验丰富的管理层。

The top players in any given industry almost always come with proven executives.

行业龙头的股票通常比那些便宜的竞争对手更贵，但它们物有所值。

Best of breed stocks are typically more expensive than their cheaper competitors, but they're worth the price.

好的管理团队不太容易犯错，更重要的是，他们不太容易被大问题压垮，而且更有可能找到解决办法。

A good management team is less likely to make mistakes and more important, less likely to get buried by big problems and more likely to figure out how to solve them.

最后，还有一个华尔街的术语，就是让人头疼的“板块轮动”，也就是资金从一个板块流向另一个板块，或者从一个大的群体流向另一个大的群体，比如从周期性板块转向长期增长板块。

Finally, one last piece of Wall Street shippers, the dreaded rotation, which is just when money flows out of one sector into another or one big group into another big group, like a cyclical to secular rotation.

这种情况通常发生在经济放缓的时候。

The kind of thing we get when the economy is slowing.

所以周期性股票就不吃香了。

So the cyclicals go out of style.

现在，这可能和你听说的正确投资方式完全相反。

Now, is probably completely antithetical to what you've been told about the right way to invest.

传统观念认为你应该自己选股票，顺便说一句，传统观念觉得这是最了不起的事，因为你本来就不该能跑赢市场。

The conventional wisdom is that you're going to pick your own stocks, something which, by the way, the conventional wisdom regards as being the height of it is because you're not supposed to be able to beat the market.

所以他们看低你。

So they sell you short.

然后你应该找高质量的公司，无论顺境逆境都坚持持有。

And then you should find high quality companies and stick with them through thick and thin.

最后，如果你坚持得够久，你就能赚到一些钱。

Then eventually, if you hold out long enough, you'll make some money.

现在，这就是我花那么多时间试图向你揭穿的“买入并持有”的愚蠢理念。

Now, is this is the brain dead philosophy of buy and hold that I spend so much time trying to debunk to you.

这是一种僵尸意识形态。

It's a zombie ideology.

尽管市场表现已经彻底证明它是错的，就像我们在CBC投资俱乐部里一直教你的那样，它们还是不肯消亡。

They refuse to die even though it's been utterly discredited by the market's performance as we're always teaching you in the CBC investing club.

这并不意味着你应该玩轮动游戏，只持有当下流行的板块。

That doesn't mean that you should play the rotation game and only own the group that's in style.

完全不是。

Not at all.

记住分散投资的重要性，这是另一个重要的投资词汇，简单来说就是确保你不要把所有的鸡蛋放在一个篮子里，一个板块的篮子里。

Remember the need for diversification, another important piece of investing vocabulary, which simply means making sure you don't have all your eggs in one basket, one sector basket.

对我来说，你的投资组合中任何一个板块的占比不超过20%，这样就算是分散了。

To me, you're diversified with no more than 20% of your portfolios in any single sector.

这样，如果板块轮动让你的周期性股票下跌，你也不会被彻底打垮，因为你还有一些成长型股票，它们表现更好，甚至同时还在赚钱。

That way, you won't get annihilated if, for example, a sector rotation takes down your cyclical stocks because you have some secular growth names that are holding up much better or even making money at the same time.

科技股很重要，因为科技股往往一起波动。

Wall tech, very big because tech tricks together.

底线是，不要害怕轮动和调整。

Bottom line, don't be afraid of rotations and corrections.

不要被那些用这些词的人吓到。

Don't be intimidated by people who use the words.

还有，记住，虽然很难量化，但执行力在选择股票时是一个关键因素。

And remember, even though it's hard to quantify, execution is a crucial factor when it comes to picking stocks.

你要找那些有经验丰富、成熟管理团队的公司，他们不太容易掉链子。

You want companies with proven seasoned management teams that are less likely to drop the ball.

跟着克莱默走。

Stick with Cramer.

接下来，杰夫·马克斯将加入克莱默，帮你解答最紧急的问题。

Coming up, Jeff Marks joins Cramer to help handle your most urgent questions.

我们回来后，话筒交给你。

The floor is yours when we return.

吉姆·克莱默。

Jim Cramer.

我是第一次打电话来，也是俱乐部的快乐会员。

I'm a first time caller, a happy club member.

我想感谢你，你是投资界的平民英雄。

I wanna thank you for being the people's champion of investing.

谢谢你帮我成了百万富翁。

Thank you for helping me become a millionaire.

我总说，这节目我最喜欢的就是直接回答你们的问题。

I always say my favorite part of the show is answering questions directly from you.

然后我会请来杰夫·马克斯，我的投资组合分析搭档，帮我回答你们最迫切的问题。

Then I'm bringing in Jeff Marks, my portfolio analyst partner in crime, help me answer some of your most burning questions.

对于投资俱乐部的成员们，两位，你们应该不需要我多介绍了。

Now for those of you who are a part of the investing club, both people, you're gonna need no introduction.

不过，对于还不是会员的朋友，我希望你们很快能加入，而且我得说，杰夫的见解和我们的互动，能让我更好地为你们服务。

For those of you who aren't members, though, I I hope you will be soon, and I would say that Jeff's insights and our back and forth help me to do a better job for you.

所以，拜托了，我希望你们加入俱乐部。

So, please, I want you to join the club.

今晚，我和杰夫会全面覆盖，直接接听电话，回答你们的一些邮件问题，那我们就来接听一些电话吧。

Tonight, Jeff and I are covering all grounds, going directly to phone lines, and answer some of your email questions, so let's take some calls.

新泽西的安德鲁。

Andrew in New Jersey.

安德鲁。

Andrew.

嘿，吉姆。

Hey, Jim.

克莱默先生。

Mister Cramer.

布耶！

Booyah.

布耶！

Booyah.

你好吗？

How you doing?

还不错。

Not bad.

你呢？

How are you?

我过得挺好的。

I'm I'm doing pretty good.

我是个66岁的老头，以前搞技术的，现在特别关注股息。

I'm a 66 year old guy, cat ex tech guy, and I'm all about dividends.

在当前这种现金环境下，加上我们拿到的回报，我与其说是个问题，不如说是个请求，想听听你对未来能不能这么做的看法。

And in this cash environment right now and the returns we're getting on them, I have more of a request than a question, and try to get your thoughts on being able to do that in the future.

我在想，有时候你能不能多做一些对比，先说明你不是税务顾问，但更经常地指出哪些公司、哪些投资享受20%的资本利得税率，而不是现金，你知道，所得税税率从25%到37%不等。当然。

I was wondering if, at times, you could do more of a contrasting, acknowledging that you're not a tax adviser, but acknowledging more often which which which companies, which investments have the favorable 20% capital gains rates versus cash, which, you know, for you know, the income tax brackets range from anywhere from 25 to 37% Sure.

对于那些收入更高的人来说。

For some of those higher end people who show.

然后我的第二个问题，额外加分的是，在年底临近的时候，我们会考虑很多税务亏损收割，你会不会直接说，这只股票我建议持有。

And then part two of my question, real extra core credit is at the end of the year as we approach the end of the year and and we do think about a lot of tax harvesting of the losses loss harvesting for tax purposes, Would you ever go so far to say, this stock, I'm recommending a hold.

但如果你考虑到30天洗盘规则，也许你想卖掉它，收割亏损，然后等30天再买回来。

But if you're thinking about the thirty day wash rules, maybe you wanna sell it, harvest the loss, and then buy it back for thirty days.

你会做到那种程度吗？

Did you ever go that far?

对。

Yeah.

不。

No.

这些都是非常有意思的问题。

These are These are very interesting issues.

我得告诉你，在我写的第一本书里，我就说过，别怕税务员。

And I've got to tell you, in my first book I wrote, do not fear the taxman.

重要的是股票的质量。

What matters are the quality of the stocks.

所以，如果我觉得一只股票会很好，我绝不会为了洗售而卖掉它。

So I would not ever sell a stock if I thought it was gonna be great for a wash sale.

再说一遍，如果我觉得它会很好，会变得更好。

Again, if I thought it was gonna be great, get improved.

我真的不想因为长期或短期的问题而卖掉任何股票。

And I really don't wanna sell any stock basis on because you might be long term, short term.

杰夫，我觉得我们是在投资，而且是长期投资。

Jeff, I think that we're investing, and we're investing for the long term.

如果一家公司表现不好，我们就卖掉它。

And if a company does poorly, we sell it.

如果一家公司表现好，我们就不动它。

And if a company does well, we don't touch it.

我觉得税务不应该成为我们考虑的因素。

And I don't think the tax person should figure into our equation.

对。

No.

而且，当然，我们在慈善信托里的所有资本利得和股息收入，每年都会捐给慈善机构。

And, of course, all of our capital gains and dividend income at the charitable trust has each year gets donated shit to charity.

但是，是的，我觉得如果你确实有

But, yeah, I think if you do

具体的税务问题，最好找税务顾问，因为他们能给你最专业的建议。

have a really specific tax question, seek a tax adviser because they'll give you the best qualified advice.

对。

Yeah.

但我们非常关注股票的表现。

But we're we're focused we're very focused on how stocks performing.

没错。

Right.

而且每个人可能有不同的做法和想法。

And people people could all be in all different practice and have all different ideas.

是的。

Yeah.

我们不如连线缅因州的凯文吧？

Why don't we go to Kevin in Maine?

凯文。

Kevin.

吉米。

Jimmy.

耶！

Booyah.

耶！

Booyah.

耶！

Booyah.

凯文，最近怎么样？

And, Kev, what's up?

感谢你帮助数百万人把自己培养成更好的投资者。

Thank you for helping millions of people build themselves into a better investor.

你一个人就鼓励了数百万美国人进入股市，否则他们不会这么做，包括我自己。

You are single handedly responsible for encouraging millions of Americans to get into the stock market who otherwise would not have, myself included.

所以，谢谢你。

So thank you.

吉米，你让我今天很开心。

Jimmy, you're my day.

好的。

Okay.

谢谢。

Thank you.

兄弟。

Buddy.

我真的很感激你为我们这些普通人所做的一切。

I do appreciate everything that you do for all of us regular people.

吉米，我有个问题。

Jimmy, quick question.

我的图表上只有三个工具：价格、成交量和OBV，也就是能量潮指标。

My charts have only three tools on them, price, volume, and OBV or on balance volume.

我现在手里有几只涨了十倍的股票，还有一只涨了三十倍的。

I'm sitting on a few 10 bags and one thirty bag.

吉米，如果逼你只能从图表上选一个工具，除了价格和成交量之外，你会选哪个？

Jimmy, if you were forced to choose only one tool on your chart other than price and volume, which one would it be?

好的。

Okay.

这太棒了。

This is terrific.

我会看超卖和超买的情况。

What I would check is to see the oversold overbought.

是不是跌得太深了？

Is it too down far down?

是不是涨得太高了？

Is it too far up?

我选股也用同样的方法。

And I use the same thing for stocks.

我希望我们有一个震荡指标，我是说，针对股市，比如标普500。

I wish we had an oscillator for I mean, for the stock exchange the s and p.

我希望我们有一个适合个股的免费震荡指标。

I wish we had an oscillator free suitable stocks.

这就是我会关注的东西。

That's what I'd be looking at.

对。

Yeah.

嗯，我不是技术分析师。

Well, I'm not a technician.

对我来说有点难说，但我觉得移动平均线也是技术分析师经常提到的指标。

It's a little harder for me to say, but I think also moving averages is is something that technicians often often quote.

所以那会是我的另一个参考。

So that would be my the other Right.

比如有些

Like some

拉里·威廉姆斯说的东西我真的很喜欢。

of the stuff that Larry Williams says I really, really like.

好的。

Alright.

那我们现在来看看一些邮件吧。

So now let's go for some emails.

我们先从俄亥俄州的黛安开始，她问：我正在努力建立公司的仓位，但目前的持股量还没达到理想水平，那你怎么在获利了结和继续建仓之间取得平衡呢？

We're gonna let's start with Diane in Ohio, and she asked, I am trying to build position in the company and at the stage of not own owning as much as desired, how do you balance taking profits and building a position?

谢谢。

Thank you.

好的。

Okay.

所以如果你建了一个小仓位，然后股价上涨了，你就直接卖掉。

So if you own you put in a small position, and if it jumps up, you just sell it.

那意味着你错过了。

That means you missed it.

你没抓住机会。

You didn't get it.

没关系。

That's okay.

我们会抓住下一个机会的。

We'll get the next one.

否则，你要做的是在下跌过程中以金字塔式的方式逐步加仓。

Otherwise, what you do is you build it on the way down in pyramid style.

而且你会有一个更好的成本基础，努力改善成本基础，前提是投资逻辑仍然正确，这才是关键。

And what you'll do is you'll have a better basis trying to improve the basis, provide the thesis is still right, and that's what matters.

对。

Yeah.

我觉得只是因为仓位小，并不意味着你应该打破纪律，变得贪婪。如果股票已经大涨，看起来有点超买，我们也不想追高。

I think just because it's a smaller position, that doesn't that doesn't mean you should break discipline and be greedy if the stocks had a huge run, looks a little bit overextended, but we also don't wanna chase stocks either.

而且不能因为仓位小，就仅仅因为你觉得它可能会涨就随便买入。

And just because it's small, just start buying because you think it may go higher.

没错。

Right.

你需要纪律，这总是归结到这一点。

You wanna discipline, it always comes back to.

对。

Yeah.

我是说，你看。

I mean, look.

我真的很讨厌等待。

I I hate having to wait.

我讨厌建金字塔式的仓位。

I hate having to build a pyramid.

但这没关系。

It doesn't matter.

这不是情绪化的游戏。

This is not a game of emotions.

这是基于实证分析的游戏，而且一直有效。

It's a game of empirical analysis, and it's worked.

好的。

Alright.

现在我们接听来自伊利诺伊州的克里斯，他问，在多元化投资组合中，你如何处理不同行业的权重？

Now let's go to Chris in Illinois who asks, how do you address the weighting of different sectors in a diversified portfolio?

你是匹配标普500或市场权重，还是根据宏观趋势等指定行业权重？

Do you match the S and P or market weighting, or do you specify sector weightings based on macro trends, etcetera?

好的。

Alright.

这个问题上，我们的俱乐部和大多数人很不一样。

Now this is another one where the club is very different from most people.

我们做的事情是寻找好公司。

What we do is we look for good good companies.

如果公司好，我们不在乎它属于哪个行业。

And if the companies are good, we don't care about the sector.

我们当然不想全都买半导体，但我们专注于找到对的股票。

Now we don't wanna have all semiconductors, but we are about finding the right stocks.

如果某个行业有很多好股票，我们就选那个行业里最好的那一个。

And if there are a lot of stocks in that sector, we pick the best one in the sector.

对。

Yeah.

但这不是我们的思考方式。

But it's not the way we think of things.

不是。

No.

我们是分散投资的，但如果有我们看好的大主题，比如电气化、清洁能源、基础设施，那我们不介意在那个领域加大投资，因为这些是多年期的趋势，正在吸引大量投资资金。

We're diversified, but if there's a, mega theme that we like, whether it be, electrification, clean energy, infrastructure, then, we're not opposed to investing more heavily in that space because these are multiyear trends that are seeing a huge flow of investment dollars.

这就是你来我们俱乐部的原因。

And that's why you come to the club.

我们不走寻常路，但我们很严谨。

We are unconventional, but we are rigorous.

我喜欢说，总有一个牛市在某个地方，我保证在这里，在《疯狂金钱》节目里，为你找到它。

I like to say there's always a bull market somewhere, and I promise y'all to find it just for you right here on Mad Money.

我是吉姆·克莱默。

I'm Jim Cramer.

下次见。

See you next time.

Jim Cramer在本播客中表达的所有观点仅代表Cramer个人意见，不代表CNBC或其母公司或关联公司的观点，这些观点可能已在电视、广播、互联网或其他媒体上发布过。

All opinions expressed by Jim Cramer on this podcast are solely Cramer's opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by Cramer on television, radio, Internet, or another medium.

你不应将Cramer的任何观点视为对特定投资或特定策略的具体诱导，而应仅视作他个人意见的表达。

You should not treat any opinion expressed by Cramer as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy but only as an expression of his opinion.

Cramer的观点基于他认为可靠的信息，但CNBC及其关联公司或子公司不保证其完整性或准确性，也不应依赖这些观点。

Cramer's opinions are based upon information he considers reliable but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such.

如需查看完整的《Mad Money》免责声明，请访问cnbc.com/madmoneydisclaimer。

To view the full Mad Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com/madmoneydisclaimer.

是什么让你有信心去做一件以前没人做过的事？

What made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before?

我不怕失败。

I have no fear of failure.

开拓创新，改变游戏规则。

Trailblazing changing the game.

我最喜欢的一条建议是，想想你老板的老板需要什么。

One of my favorite pieces of advice, think about what your boss's boss needs.

领导力可以有很多种不同的表现形式。

Leadership can look in many, many different forms.

归根结底，还是要相信自己。

It really does come down to just trusting yourself.

人生苦短，

Life is short, and

要想成就大事，就得敢想大。

you just gotta think big to accomplish big things.

朱莉娅·布尔斯汀主持CNBC的“变革者”和“权力玩家”节目。

Julia Boorstin hosts CNBC changemakers and power players.

每周二更新，欢迎在各大播客平台收听。

New episodes every Tuesday wherever you get your podcasts.