Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer 8/3/26

这两家公司多年来股价一直在下跌，因为华尔街认为它们在Claude和ChatGPT时代已经失去了竞争力。

These two have spent years drifting lower as Wall Street assumes they've lost their mojo in the age of Claude and Chatty PT.

说实话，我从来不完全相信这种说法，但信不信似乎从来都不重要。

Look, I never believed wholeheartedly in that thesis, but it never seemed to matter whether I believed it or not.

就在上个月，Cognizant宣布扩大合作伙伴关系，而Accenture也推出了一整套与Google Cloud结合的Vagintic AI解决方案。

Just last month, Cognizant announced an expanded partnership with and Accenture unveiled a whole suite of Vagintic AI solutions that it's selling in combination with Google Cloud.

听起来它们好像完全没受影响。

Sound like they're oblivious.

不过说到底，市场情绪才是关键。

In the end, it's all about sentiment though.

当Accenture在6月份公布业绩不太理想时，股价暴跌，连带Cognizant也跟着遭殃。

When Accenture reported not so hot quarter in June, its stock got clobbered and took Cogsworth down with it.

到了7月底，Cognizant公布了非常相似的业绩数据，结果两只股票都大涨。

Then in late July, Cogsworth reported a very similar set of numbers, and both stocks roared.

我希望看到这两家公司拿出更好的数据，才会大力推荐它们。

Now I would have seen better numbers from these two before they pound the table.

但如果他们能稳住业绩，这两只股票就非常便宜了。

But if they can stabilize the results, the stocks are very cheap.

标普500里表现第三好的，也是七月份的一匹黑马，就是PayPal。

Third best performing the s p five, another one in July, another one shocker, PayPal.

它涨了32.5%。

That's up 32.5%.

虽然在新CEO恩里克·劳尔斯领导下，公司确实比上一任CEO时期好多了，但股价飙升主要是因为PayPal据说收到了来自大型私人金融科技公司Stripe的收购意向，而且还有私募股权公司支持。

Now while the company's certainly doing much better under new CEO Enrique Lawyers than his previous CEO, the stock roared because PayPal apparently got a a takeover overture from the giant private fintech company called Stripe with the backing of a private equity firm.

目前双方还没达成任何协议，但也没有直接拒绝。

Now they they haven't agreed to anything, but it hasn't been shot down.

挺耐人寻味的。

Quizzical.

七月份表现第四好的是Workday，涨了31%。

Fourth best performer in July was Workday, up 31%.

这是一只企业软件股，之前也被AI替代交易打压得很惨，现在距离2024年初的高点还跌了将近50%。

Now this is an enterprise software stock that's also been hammered by the AI displacement trade and still down nearly 50% from its peak in early twenty twenty four.

我们知道ServiceNow发布财报后股价大涨，当时看到那些新数据就知道了。

Now we know ServiceNow reported and roared when we saw those new numbers.

那也就是几周前的事。

It was just a couple weeks ago.

Workday也有可能复制这样的走势，如果本月晚些时候它的数据也能让人眼前一亮的话。

Workday could do the same thing if his numbers impress us later this month.

排名第五的是威利斯韬睿惠悦这家公司。

In fifth place was a company called Willis Towers Watson.

我平时很少提到他们。

I never talk about these guys.

这是一家大型商业保险经纪和员工福利咨询公司。

This is a major commercial insurance brokerage and employee benefits consultant.

七月份涨了28.5%。

28.5% gain in July.

平心而论，这家公司上周的财报确实不错，但我认为这波上涨主要还是跟利率有关。

To the company's credit, they had a good report last week, but I think this one's mostly about interest rates.

利率一涨，整个保险行业就变得有意思多了。

The entire insurance sector got a lot more interesting when rates go higher.

他们确实超出了最近的销售和盈利预期，所以这点我承认他们做得不错。

They did beat the most recent sales and earnings estimates, so I didn't give them that credit.

排在第六位的是芝加哥期权交易所全球市场。

Now in sixth place, there's the Cboe global market.

就是CBOE。

That's CBOE.

大型期权交易市场上涨了27.8%，这完全是因为整个月里波动性逐渐加剧。

Big options market places up 27.8%, and that's all about the volatility that gradually built throughout the month.

CBOE上周五也公布了不错的季度业绩，让它的股价又往上冲了一波。

Cboe also reported a solid quarter last Friday, giving its stock one more leg higher.

我觉得这个价格不算贵。

I don't think it's expensive.

排在第七位的是菲利普斯66，上涨了25%。

In seventh place, Phillips sixty six was up 25%.

我现在挺惊讶的，它是前十名里唯一的炼油公司，因为现在这个行业都火得不行。

Now I am surprised that it is the only oil refiner in the top 10 because they're all on fire right now.

菲利普斯66周三发布财报，根据上周四炼油巨头瓦莱罗的消息来看。

Phillips sixty six reports on Wednesday based on what we heard from refining giant Valero last thursday.

我非常有信心，菲利普斯66这个季度的业绩会非常出色。

I feel pretty darn confident that this quarter from Phillips sixty six will be excellent.

第八名是微软，涨幅24.6%，大部分涨幅来自上周三晚上公司发布财报之后。

Eighth place, Microsoft of 24.6% with most of that gain coming after the company reported blog quarter last Wednesday night.

考虑到这只股票今年大部分时间表现疲软，这真是个不错的惊喜。

Given how weak the stock had been for most of the year, it was a nice surprise.

他们的Azure云基础设施业务非常火爆，而且很多人甚至开始付费使用Copilot。

Their Azure cloud infrastructure business is on fire, and lots of people are even paying for a copilot.

另外，微软在资本支出上也很节制，所以股价才有这么惊人的涨幅。

Plus Microsoft helped align on capital spending, hence the stunning gains in the stock.

这是我的查普尔信托基金里一个很大的持仓。

It's a big position for my chapel trust.

CMC投资俱乐部的成员们都知道这一点。

Those members of the CMC investing club know that.

他们也知道我之前对这只股票持保留态度，我说希望他们干得漂亮，否则我们就得重新考虑是否继续持有这只股票了。

They also know that I had cool on it and saying that I hope they did a good job or we would have to reevaluate owning a stock.

结果很明显，他们干得非常出色，所以股票继续持有。

Well, clearly held order because they did a great job.

第九名是惠普公司，涨幅超过24%。

The ninth best performer HP Inc up more than 24%.

这将是催化剂。

That'll clue Catalyst.

我们知道惠普过去几年一直远远落后于戴尔，因为惠普主打的是消费市场。

We know HP has badly lagged Dell for the past couple of years because HP's consumer play.

而戴尔在数据中心领域有大量业务。

Dell has tons of data center exposure.

但到了七月，戴尔下跌了约6%，而惠普却大涨。

But in July, Dell was down about 6% while HP roared.

不过长期来看，我还是更愿意持有戴尔。

Long term, though, I'd still rather own Dell.

最后，第十名是德康。

Finally, number 10 was Dexcom.

记得我们以前经常聊这家公司，他们为糖尿病患者生产血糖监测仪。

Remember, we used to talk about them all time and make blood sugar monitors for people with diabetes.

那只股票在七月份涨了将近24%。

That stock was up almost 24% July.

医疗科技股之前一直不受待见，但七月份投资者在AI数据中心之外寻找科技增长点时，这个板块突然火了起来。

MedTech stocks had been out of favor for a while, but that group caught fire as investors searched for tech growth away from the AI data center complex in the month of July.

另外，德康上周发布了季度财报，我真希望它的股价能再便宜点。

Plus, tech come reported while quarter last week, I I just wish the stock would be cheaper.

以上就是表现好的股票。

Those are the winners.

那表现差的股票呢？机会又在哪里？

How about the losers where the opportunities are?

看看标普500里表现最差的十只股票，这些亏损归根结底都是因为华尔街在七月份对人工智能交易的态度发生了转变。

When you look at the 10 worst performers in the S and P 500, these losses all come down to Wall Street turning against the artificial intelligence trade, at least in the month of July.

桑德斯是做内存和数据存储的。

Sanders makes memory and data storage.

它跌了46.6%。

It was down 46.6%.

好几家网络设备公司都受到了冲击，康宁跌了近46%，排名第二差的Coherent跌了33.4%，排在第六。

Multiple networking players got hit with Corning down nearly 46%, Second worst performer coherent down 33.4%, six worst performer.

好几家半导体设备制造商也上了这个名单。

Several semiconductor capital equipment makers joined the list.

KLA跌了39.4%，Lam Research跌了32.4%，Applied Materials跌了将近30%。

KLA down 39.4% Lam Research down 32.4% Applied Materials down almost 30%.

这些公司我们都请来过节目。

We had them all on the show.

业务其实很强劲。

Business is strong.

有几家芯片公司也上榜了，比如Marvell Technologies，这家公司我一直很喜欢。

Couple chipmakers made the list like Marvell Technologies, one I've liked very much.

英特尔，这个信托名字真糟糕。

Intel, terrible trust name.

它们分别排在第四和第五差，跌幅分别为37%和35.4%。

They were the fourth and fifth worst down 3735.4% respectively.

Generac，他们生产备用发电设备。

Generac, they make backup power generations.

这公司我们节目里经常提到。

No stranger to the show.

他们有一个很大的数据中心业务。

They've got a big data center business.

股价下跌超过32%。

Stock is down more than 32%.

Flex，第九差，跌幅接近30%。

Flex, the ninth worst performer down almost 30%.

他们可是大型科技硬件制造商之一。

They're one of the big tech hardware manufacturers.

当然，上个月底我们得知，至少部分抛售跟这次濒临崩溃有关。

Of course, late last month, we found out that at least some of this sell off had to do with the near collapse.

有人说是彻底崩盘，但这取决于你怎么看。

Some people say total collapse, but it's all the way you look at it.

那些对冲基金和有限合伙人，过去两年大部分时间都在赚大钱，结果跑得太急，步子迈得太大，用了过高的杠杆。

All the hedge fund situational awareness LP that had been printing big gains for most of the past two years, got out got out over its skis, used too much leverage.

当许多AI股从高点回落时，他们遇到了麻烦。

They got in trouble when many of the AI stocks at own pulled back from their highs.

与此同时，他们一直在做空企业软件股，结果突然获得了收益。

At the same time, they've been shorting many enterprise software stocks and suddenly got a boost.

你看，他们平仓了， boom（砰的一声/一下子）。

You see, they unwound, boom.

现在，Situational Awareness公司已经卖出了几乎全部公开持仓。

Now that situational awareness has sold almost all of its public holdings.

人们很容易认为一切已经明朗，大多数AI股票会迅速反弹。

There's a temptation to give it all clear and say that most of the AI stocks will bounce right back.

我理解这种想法。

I get that.

但这些AI数据中心相关的股票，还需要重新找回上涨势头。

But these AI data center plays will still need to regain their momentum.

别忘了，除了核心业务之外，这里还有一些严重的问题。

Remember, there are some serious issues here away from just the core business.

利率飙升对它们造成了冲击。

The spike in interest rates hurt them.

新开源AI模型的出现，威胁到了领先AI实验室的定价能力。

The emergence of new open source AI models, they get threatened pricing power for the leading AI labs.

这些都是实实在在的不利因素。

Those are real headwinds.

以下是核心结论。

Here's the bottom line.

表面上，七月是个平静的月份，但当你看看各大板块截然不同的表现时，其实相当惨烈。

On the surface, July was a calm month, but when you look at the disparate performances of the major sectors, it was brutal.

眼看就要到年底了，没错，我们已经到了这么晚的时候。

As we head toward the final months of the year, yeah, we are that late in the year.

关键问题是，这些低调的AI股票能否稳住阵脚，重新找回势头，甚至开始反弹。

The key question is whether these humble AI stocks can stabilize, regain their momentum, and even start rallying it.

希望过程能少一些戏剧性，多一些稳步上升。

Hopefully, a little less dramatically and a little more stair step.

记住，无论这些公司实际表现有多好，那种抛物线式的上涨总是会带来麻烦。

Remember, the parabolic moves that they had always spell trouble no matter how good the companies may actually be doing.

我们来接听电话。

Let's take calls.

先从密歇根的吉尔开始。

Let's start with Jill in Michigan.

吉尔。

Jill.

嗨，吉姆。

Hi, Jim.

你今晚怎么样？

How are you tonight?

我挺好的，吉尔。

I am good, Jill.

你呢？

How about you?

我很好。

I'm doing great.

我打电话来是想聊聊Palo Alto Networks。

I'm calling you about Palo Alto Networks.

哦，天哪。

Oh, jeez.

关于Nikesh Arora，Palo Alto的事。

About Nikesh Arora, Palo Alto.

今天它涨得很厉害。

It's just it was up huge today.

确实，Palo Alto和CrowdStrike才是真正能保护我们免受下一波Vagintic A攻击的公司。

It deserves that Paolo Alto and CrowdStrike are really the companies that are going to protect us from this next wave of Vagintic A.

嗯。

I.

Palo Alto，我觉得现金流不错。

Paolo Alto I think the cash is good.

而且，我还看到那个管现金的人打了会儿高尔夫。

And hey I saw the cash play a little golf.

他高尔夫打得也挺好的。

He's pretty good at golf too.

谁知道呢。

You never know.

这家伙说不定还是个全能型人才。

The guy can be even triple threat.

而且谁知道他还有别的什么动静呢。

And who else knows what else he's got up to.

不过我喜欢 Palo Alto。

But I like Palo Alto.

为了信托基金，我们持有它的股份。

We own him for the trust.

现在。

Now.

好的。

Okay.

至于今年剩下的时间，我很想看看AI股票能不能弥补七月这波糟糕的表现。

Going to the rest of the year, I'll be curious to see if the AI stocks can make up for this sour July performance.

我觉得市场会赚得更多，毕竟选股比盲目跟风靠谱多了。

I think the market will be too much more made money at putting my Swiss with picking bows.

很多时候很多股票都是跟着一起涨跌的，其实根本没什么特别的原因。

Then lots of stocks trade alongside each other oftentimes for no reason at all.

我来解释一下为什么以及你自己如何利用这个机会。

I'm explaining why and how you can take advantage of the action yourself.

还有你所有的来电，今晚闪电轮环节的快速问答。

And all your calls rapid fire tonight's edition of the Lightning Round.

所以请继续关注克拉默。

So stay with Cramer.

今天，我想聊聊一个最令人意外的翻身故事——必能宝。

Today, I wanna check-in one of the most surprising turnaround stories out there, Pindi Bose.

这家公司以邮件计量设备闻名，帮助办公室处理邮资。

It's a company that's best known for mail meters equipment that helps offices send postage.

数字化浪潮让它的业务面临挑战。

Business has been challenged by the rise of digitization.

但几年前，一家激进对冲基金介入，迫使必能宝削减成本并进军新业务。

But a couple years ago, an activist hedge fund got involved with the story, forcing Pitney Bowes to cut costs and get into new businesses.

去年春天，那家对冲基金的负责人库尔特·沃尔夫被任命为首席执行官。

In the spring of last year, the leader of that activist hedge fund, Kurt Wolfe, was named CEO.

去年八月我和沃尔夫聊的时候，股价已经涨得很好了，当时回到了12美元左右。

By the time I spoke with Wolfe last August, the stock had already had a great run, making it back to $12 and change at the time.

他当时说，这波反弹还有后劲。

He argued that the comeback still had legs.

现在差不多一年过去了，股价到了18美元左右，说明他完全说对了。

Now nearly a year later, the stock's at 18 and change, meaning he was dead right.

那它还能继续涨吗？

So can it keep running?

我们来和库尔特·沃尔佩一起仔细看看。

Let's take a close look with Kurt Wolpey.

他是必能宝的CEO，我们要关注这家公司。

He's the CEO of Pitney Bowes to fight after.

欢迎回到《疯狂金钱》。

Welcome back to Mad Money.

吉姆，谢谢你再次邀请我。

Thank you for having me again, Jim.

库尔特，你之前谈到可能发生的事情时，态度非常诚恳。

Well, Kurt, you were very earnest talking about what could happen.

我一直持怀疑态度，因为必能宝是个故事股，显然受到了电子邮件和大量语音通信的冲击。

I've been skeptical because Pitney Bowes is a story name that had obviously been challenged by by email, by lots of voice.

但你有很多创新的办法来应对。

But you had a lot of creative ways to be able to do things.

不过同时，你也意识到必须修复资产负债表。

But at the same time, you also recognize the balance sheet's gotta be fixed.

而且你知道公司有很多现金。

And you knew that there was a lot of cash.

你可以回购股票。

You could buy back stock.

跟我们说说你具体做了什么，现在进展如何。

Tell us the process of what you did and where you are now.

是的，吉姆，当然可以。

Yeah, absolutely Jim.

首先，我觉得退一步聊聊必能宝这家公司会很有帮助。

So first off, think it's helpful to step back and talk about Pitney Bowes.

我们有三大业务板块。

We have three businesses.

在邮件预分拣业务上，我们是邮件分拣领域的绝对主导者。

Our presort business, we are the dominant player in mail sortation.

在发送技术业务上，我们在邮资机市场占有大约60%到70%的份额。

Our SendTech business, We have about 60 to 70% market share of the mail meter industry.

同时，我们在运输软件领域也处于领先地位。

We're also a leader in the shipping software space.

最后，我们还有一家银行。

Finally, have a bank.

我们为大约50万客户提供金融服务和解决方案。

We provide financial services and solutions to our roughly 500,000 customers.

所以，基本上这就是我们业务的概况。

So that's, you know, essentially the business in a nutshell.

至于我们为了扭转局面做了什么，就像你说的，我们解决了资产负债表的问题。

As far as what we've done to turn things around, as you said, we've addressed, you know, balance sheet issues.

我们最近从惠誉获得了双B减评级。

We recently got a double b minus rating from Fitch.

我们回购了大量股票，情况已经改善了。

We bought back a lot of stock and we've improved.

嗯，我觉得你的资产负债表现在很完美。

Well, think your balance sheet is perfect now.

谢谢。

Thank you.

是的。

Yes.

我们现在没有任何到期债务，直到

We don't have any maturities now until

2029年的债券？

Darts of '29?

到29年。

'29.

没错。

Absolutely.

那么，我跟你说过，六月底的时候，你宣布启动了战略评估流程的第二阶段。

So let me I've mentioned to you that at the end of June, you announced that you're initiating the second phase of of the phase of the strategic review process.

给我们更新一下进展吧。

Bring us up to date what's going on there.

对，这其实是很自然的下一步。

Yeah, so this is just logical next step.

过去一年我们一直在修复业务。

We spent the last year fixing the business.

我们提升了公司效率，培养了持续改进的文化。

So we addressed improving efficiency of the company, instilling a culture of continuous improvement.

而且我们确实找到了很多公司增长的途径。

And we really identified a lot of avenues for growth for the company.

作为下一步，我们做了很多内部探索和开发工作。

As as a next step, we did a lot of internal internal searching and developing.

现在我们正在把目光投向公司外部。

And now what we're doing is we're looking external to the company.

我们还能做些什么来为股东创造更多价值？

What can we do to deliver more value for our shareholders?

跟我说说，你们能实现什么样的实际增长？

Well, talk to me about what kind of real growth you can have.

这个目标合理吗？

Is that a reasonable goal?

当然可以。

Absolutely.

是的。

Yes.

对。

Yeah.

所以，对，我就想提我们业务的两个方面。

So, yeah, I would just point to two areas of our business.

你知道，物流软件是个增长领域，随着亚马逊和电商的发展，物流需求也在增长。

Shipping software is a growing space as you know, with Amazon and e commerce shipping is growing.

所以这是个很好的机会。

So that's a great opportunity.

你想

You wanna

根据当时最有利的方式规划路线，这对中小企业来说太棒了。

route things to what the most advantageous way at that moment, which to me is fantastic for a small medium sized business.

你几乎是必须的。

You're kind of a must.

完全正确。

Absolutely.

完全同意。

Completely agree.

还有我们的银行业务，这也是个很好的机会。

And then also our bank is another great opportunity, an area for opportunity.

就像你刚才提到的中小型企业，我们大概有五十万客户。

We have, as you talked about small mid sized businesses, we have roughly 500,000 clients.

他们都有银行方面的需求。

All have banking needs.

我们现在提供部分服务，但肯定还能做得更多。

We're currently providing some of their banking needs and we can certainly do more.

那这有点像 Square 或者 Block 的做法吗？就是他们提供一点预付款，或者你们是怎么操作的？银行那边又是怎么介入的？

Now, would that be like kind of like what Square tries to do or Block where they give a little bit of advances or you towards something or what what where does the bank go?

你们是靠什么来放贷的呢？

What does he what do you lend against?

对，这个因情况而异，我们目前正在进行三个试点项目。

Yeah, so it varies by we're running three pilots right now.

其中一些项目确实是基于某些资产或数据来放贷的。

Some of them do lend against.

所以针对我们的预分拣客户，我们开始做资产抵押贷款。

So with our pre sort customers, we're starting to do asset based based lending.

我们正在和三家PL公司合作，其中也涉及一些资产抵押贷款。

We're working with three pls, which also involves some asset based lending there.

但另一个机会，就像我提到的，是物流软件。

But the other opportunity is, as I mentioned, shipping software.

对。

Right.

邮局在客户寄件时是不提供信贷的。

The post office doesn't extend credit to customers when they ship.

所以我们可以做的是，为这些客户提供信贷，无论他们是小企业还是大企业。

So that's something that we can do is that we can extend credit to those customers, whether small business or large.

而且因为我们和这些公司有长期合作，有些甚至长达五十年，所以我们很清楚和他们做生意时承担的风险有多大。

And because we have a long history with these companies, some as long as fifty years, we have a pretty good idea of the credit risk we're taking when we do business with them.

好的。

Okay.

你在信里提到，你看，你有个对冲基金业务，还有那个Heste Capital，他们正在出售它。

In your letter, you talked about, look, you have the hedge fund business and that the Heste Capital and they were selling it.

我觉得你又一次很诚恳地说，你看，在你批评我之前，先等一下。

I thought you were quite earnest again in saying, look, before you hit me on this, wait a second.

我想说，我就是那个联盟。

I'm like, I'm the league.

以前你可能是最大的股东，但你没有得到股份上的补偿。

I used to you might be the largest shareholder, and you're not being compensated in share.

你的基本工资很低，而且你是在公开市场上买那些股票。

You you have a very low base salary, and you're buying those shares in the open market.

是的。

Yes.

对。

Yeah.

所以，我很感谢你这么说。

So I I appreciate you saying that.

所以有几件事要说：第一，我确实管理着一个深度价值投资基金，你知道我们和投资者之间需要做什么。

So a few things that point to one, I do manage a deep value investment fund and there's you know what we have to do with our investors.

我们做出的承诺，以及我们进行的投资类型。

Know the commitments we make, the types of investments we make.

但某件事不适合赫斯提亚，并不代表它就没有巨大的价值。

But just because something isn't a good fit for Hestia doesn't mean it's a great value.

对。

Right.

我认为必能宝就是这样的公司，所以我一直在从赫斯提亚提取分红，直接以必能宝CEO的身份购买公司股票。

And I think that Pitney Bowes is, which is why I've been taking distributions out of Hestia to take shares directly in the company as the CEO of Pitney Bowes.

我看好这家公司有巨大的发展空间。

I see a tremendous runway for this company.

就像你说的，关于薪酬，我拿了康涅狄格州法律允许的最低工资，这样我几乎所有的激励都基于股票，因为我对这家公司的机会感到无比兴奋。

And as you said, well with compensation, I took the lowest legal salary that you can get in the state of Connecticut so that I could have almost all my incentive based on shares because I am incredibly excited about opportunities for this company.

那么，这其中有多少取决于国内生产总值和经济增长呢？

So how much of it depends on the gross domestic product and growth?

我是说，中小型企业，有些人会说，比如Shopify会告诉你情况很好。

I mean, the small medium sized businesses, some people say, I mean, like Shopify would tell you it's really good.

我们知道ADP也说情况很好。

We know that paycheck says it's really good.

你的客户们怎么样？

How are your customers doing?

客户们情况很好，吉姆。

Customers are doing great, Jim.

是的。

Yeah.

我真的很喜欢这家公司的一点是，我们不太受经济周期影响。

One thing I do love about this company is we're not very cyclical.

所以，如果有人关注我们，需要记住的是，即使经济下滑。

So, you know, anybody looking at us something to keep in mind is the economy takes a downturn.

对我们影响也不大，但我们业务中有两个部分对经济敏感。在预分拣业务中，我们为客户做营销邮件，而营销往往更受经济周期影响，与经济更紧密相关。

It doesn't really hit us much, but we do have two sec two parts of our business that are economically sensitive Within Presort, we do marketing mail for customers and marketing tends to be more cyclical, more tied to the economy.

我们目前没有看到任何疲软的迹象。

We're seeing no weakness there.

至于我们的银行客户，显然他们的财务状况会影响违约率等指标，但我们完全没有看到任何压力信号。

And then our bank, obviously, the financial conditions of our customers weighs in on delinquency rates and other, and we're seeing no signs of stress at all.

好的。

Okay.

我知道你们已经扭转了局面，但你们预计SendTech还是会下滑。

So I know that the you've turned things around, but you you do expect SendTech to that has the decline.

只是下滑幅度变小了。

It's just declining less.

你觉得它有可能转正吗？

Can that break into the positive, you think?

我们认为有可能。

We think that it can.

好的。

Okay.

所以短期内，我们再次强调，我们尽量做到极度透明。

So and in the short term, and again, we try to be incredibly transparent.

对。

Right.

我是投资者。

I'm an investor.

不。

No.

我的意思是，是的。

I mean Yeah.

我是投资者，

I'm an investor in

整个事情。

whole thing.

一直都很透明。

Been transparent.

所以我才问你，因为你可以直接说，我知道你可能只会回答，还没到时候呢，吉姆。

That's why I asked you because you could say, I know you might just say, look, not yet, Jim.

但你显然觉得这是有可能的。

But you're obviously thinking it could.

对，绝对是这样。

Yeah, absolutely.

我觉得这主要会通过航运软件领域来实现。

And I think it'll come primarily through the shipping software space.

还有一些其他方面我就不展开细说了，比如我们提供的按需邮件服务。

There's some other things I won't get into the weeds too much as a mail stream on demand product we offer.

这块确实有机会，但你知道的，我们的邮资机业务预计会下滑，不过我们也看到了很多增长机会。

There's opportunity there, but you know the mail meter business we do expect to decline, but we see a lot of opportunities for growth.

我们确实面临一些短期逆风，但这些都不在我们的核心业务范围内。

We do face some short term headwinds, but those are outside of our core business.

我们对前景非常乐观。

We're very optimistic about it.

跟大家说说公司回购了多少股。

Tell people how many shares the company bought back.

我觉得这点挺重要的。

I thought that was really important.

我记得我们大概回购了五千万股。

I believe we bought back 50,000,000 shares roughly.

这个我应该清楚，大概是五千万股左右。

Should I should know, but about 50,000,000.

不是。

No.

我要找的就是这个数。

That's the number I'm looking for.

总之，感谢 Kurt Wolfe。

Anyway, wanna thank Kurt Wolfe.

他是 Pitney Bowes 的 CEO，这次他给出的回答和上次来节目时承诺的一样到位。

He's the CEO of Pitney Bowes for delivering exactly what he said he did last time he came on.

也许你能再来一次。

Maybe you can do it again.

当然可以。

Absolutely.

为什么不行呢？

Why not?

《疯狂金钱》又回到脑中了。

Mad Money is back into the brain.

谢谢，吉姆。

Thanks, Jim.

接下来，他是华尔街反应最快的人，所以我们请你们帮忙来考考他。

Coming up, he's the fastest mind on Wall Street, so we're putting him to the test with your help.

马上进入闪电回合。

Bring on the lightning round next.

是时候开始白色回合了。

It is time to set the white round.

然后闪电回合就结束了。

And then the lightning round is over.

准备好了吗？

Are you ready?

滑雪甲板。

Ski deck.

灯光室在脑海中清晰起来。

The light room clears in mind.

从德克萨斯州的詹姆斯开始。

Start with James in Texas.

詹姆斯。

James.

吉米·奇尔。

Jimmy Chill.

当然。

You betcha.

来自孤星之州的大NFC，好嘞！

Big NFC's booyah from the Lone Star State.

很高兴你来做客。

Good to have you on the show.

最近怎么样？

What's going on?

嘿。

Hey.

我想听听你对一只股票的看法，这只股票今年二月IPO，是数据中心建设、电网基础设施以及高能耗工业设施的关键环节。

I wanna get your take on a stock that IPO back in February this year is in the critical path for all data center build outs, power grid infrastructure, and industrial facilities with energy intensive operations.

IPO锁定期明天就到期了，而超大规模数据中心资本支出似乎还在加速，现在是买入时机，还是观望管理层是否会进行第三次IPO后增发？

With IPO lockup expiring tomorrow and hyperscaler CapEx spending for data centers seemingly still speed ahead, is it time to buy, or is it a wait and see if management goes for a third post IPO sale?

这家公司是Forgent Power Solutions，股票代码FPS。

The company is Forgent Power Solutions, stock symbol FPS.

我知道这只股票。

I know it.

我挺惊讶它居然没涨。

I was surprised it hadn't gone up.

我当时想，天哪，它一直没被市场注意到，但你提到了锁定期这个因素。

I figured, jeez, it just been unrecognized, but you bring up this idea of the lockup.

我得说，这家公司并不便宜，但我觉得跟同板块的其他股票相比，它还算合理。

I would tell you that this company is not cheap, but I think that the stock is right versus the others that are in the group.

它一直没怎么动。

It hasn't moved.

我们连线一下马萨诸塞州的萨姆。

Let's go to Sam in Massachusetts.

萨姆。

Sam.

吉姆，听我说。

Jim, listen.

如果能源和内存都存在瓶颈，我最近一直在关注一家叫NDEC的公司。

If we have a bottleneck in energy and we have bottleneck in memory, I've been looking at the company NDEC.

它提供了一种更节能的数据传输方式。

It makes a more energy efficient type of way to transmit, the data.

所以我想听听你对NDEC的看法，现在市值不到10亿美元。

So I'm curious what you think about NDEC here at under 1,000,000,000.

好的。

Okay.

这只股票嘛，你知道，它之前已经大幅回调过了。

This one is starting to, you know, it's had a big move back.

让我这么说吧。

Let me do this.

我不想轻率地评价这个。

I I don't want to be glib about this.

我需要更了解它。

I need to know better.

我现在需要更了解它，因为它涨得太多了。

I need to know this anymore because it just moved up so much.

我不能随便说一句‘没问题’就完事了。

I can't just say it's fine.

那样做不对。

That wouldn't be right.

我们连线一下南卡罗来纳州的詹姆斯。

Let's go to James in South Carolina.

詹姆斯·吉米·奇尔。

James Jimmy Chill.

奇尔。

Chill.

我是奇尔。

I'm Chill.

嗯，

Well

老会员了，加入俱乐部很久了。

long time long time and club member.

哇。

Wow.

我是说，这真是三连击。

I mean triple play there.

怎么了？

What's up?

嘿。

Hey.

吉米，我打电话给你是因为这家公司的联席CEO在6月6日公开市场买入了价值5000万美元的股票。

Jimmy, the company that I'm calling you about, the co CEO of this company purchased $50,000,000 worth of stock on June 6 in the open market.

其他高管也买入了超过500万美元的股票。

The rest of senior management purchased well over $5,000,000.

他们正在等待FDA批准，预计会在11月14日或更早公布。

They are waiting on FDA approval, which should come anytime between November 14 or sooner.

他们的试验结果比已经销售这种药物的那家公司要好得多。

Their trials have produced much better results than the one company that's already selling this this drug.

吉米，我打电话说的这家公司是Summit Therapeutics，股票代码SMMC。

The company I'm calling about, Jimmy, is Summit Therapeutics, SMMC.

好的。

Okay.

这家公司有问题。

It has issues.

嗯，好吧。

Well, okay.

这么说吧。

Let's put this way.

这是个不错的投机机会。

It's a great spec.

好的。

Okay.

我们就先这么看吧。

Let let's leave it like that.

这个可以当作你的投机标的。

This can be your spec.

记住，在任何市场都能赚钱，但关键在于你如何选择一个投机标的。

Remember, in, how to make money in any market but how you can have a Spec.

就让那个成为你的投机标的吧。

Let that be your Spec.

我不想有太多投机标的，因为你知道，市场上好公司太多了。

I don't want to be more than one Spec because you know what there's so many good companies out there.

我觉得大概每五个里有一个，如果你真的认真挑的话，每十个里有两个。

I think every one out of every five two out of every 10 if you're really pressing it.

但这就是我对投机标的的看法。

But that's how I feel about Spec.

你可以放心去投机。

You're okay to speculate.

我们连线一下亚利桑那州的杰克。

Let's go to Jake in Arizona.

杰克。

Jake.

谁是来自凤凰城的吉姆·雅各布？

Who's Jim Jacob from Phoenix.

你最近怎么样？

How you been.

又创纪录了。

Another record.

不错。

Good.

很好。

Good.

Carvana刚刚又发布了一个创纪录的季度。

Carvana just posted another record quarter.

这是回调还是买入机会，还是投资者应该等待？

Is this a pullback or a buying opportunity or should investors wait.

不，这是个买入机会。

No it is a buying opportunity.

我得跟你说，我仔细看过之后，觉得情况真的很好。

I've got to tell you when I went over things, I thought things were really good.

我是说，有时候股票就是会被强行抛售。

I mean sometimes the stock gets forced out there.

很多人确实很讨厌Carvana。

People really hate Carvana.

这个季度表现不错。

This was a good quarter.

Ernie Garcia干得不错。

Ernie Garcia did a good job.

顺便说一句，把Shack也拿出来说说。

And by the way, put the shack at us.

所以看看Shack，Shack看起来不一样了。

So the shacks and look at shack, shack looks different.

我是说，沙克，你知道的，他一直是个很好的代言人。

I mean shack you know good always good spokesperson shack.

他是个赢家。

He's he's winner.

但这不应该影响你的判断。

That should not influence your decision.

不过我还是得提一下。

But I do point it out.

我们连线纽约的查理。查理？

Let's go to Charlie in New York Charlie.

你好，先生。

Booyah Mr.

克莱默先生。

Cramer.

哇哦。

Woah

对，查理，怎么了？

yeah Charlie, what's up?

我能叫你詹姆西吗？

Is it okay if I call you Jamesy?

有何不可？

Why not?

我爸就是这么叫我的。

That's what pop called me.

好的，詹姆西。

Alright, Jamesy.

Reddit 交出了强劲的业绩，但股价还是跌了。

Reddit delivered strong numbers, the stock still got punished.

作为股东，看着公司表现不错却还是被抛售，真的很让人沮丧。

As a shareholder, it's incredibly frustrating watching a company execute and get sold anyway.

这是不是买入的机会？

Is this a buying opportunity?

我在努力。

I'm trying

让你自己告诉我。

to tell me yourself.

不是。

No.

不对。

No.

不是。

No.

市场的意思可能是他们得跟谷歌重新谈一笔交易。

The market is saying that maybe they need to do a new deal with Google.

我们也不知道那笔交易具体会是什么样子。

We don't know what that deal is going to be.

我可不是Reddit的卖家。

I I'm not a seller redder here.

我很惊讶这只股票跌得这么惨。

I was surprised that this stock got hit as bad as it did.

它本不该跌成这样的。

It should not have done so.

我同意你的看法。

I'm with you.

各位，这就是

And that, ladies and gentlemen, conclusion of the

快问快答环节的结束。

lightning round.

快问快答环节由查尔斯·施瓦布赞助。

The lightning round is sponsored by Charles Schwab.

接下来，克拉默将分析股票篮子如何干扰个股的涨幅。

Coming up, Cramer's running through how stock baskets are interfering with the gains from individual companies.

马上回来。

Next.

股市有时候就是这么荒谬，让那些只盯着单个公司命运的人摸不着头脑。

There's a silliness to the stock market that confounds those who focus on the fortunes of individual companies.

今天早上我在X上就提到了这一点，我写道，引用一下，‘外交等于买入波音’。

I alluded to it this morning on x when I wrote, quote, diplomacy equals buy Boeing.

轰炸等于卖出波音。

Bombing equals sell Boeing.

实际上，认为波音的前景取决于与伊朗战争的结局，这想法太疯狂了。

In reality, it's crazy to think Boeing's prospects hinge on the outcome of the war with Iran.

确实。

Sure.

有些海湾国家的航空公司，可能因为战争影响财务状况，买不起或负担不了波音的飞机。

There are some airlines from Gulf states that might not be able to buy or afford Boeing planes with the war hurting their finances.

嗯，总的来说，由于航空燃油价格上涨，航空公司可能买不起那么多新飞机了。

Well, generally, the airlines might not be able to afford as many new planes thanks to the rising cost of jet fuel.

至少大家是这么想的。

At least that's what people seem to think.

不过，这只股票还是涨了17美元，证明了我那个精炼的帖子观点。

Still, the stock did trade up $17 proving my pithy posted thesis.

但波音这家公司，不是作为交易玩物的波音，其价值取决于现金流和生产能力。

But Boeing the company, not Boeing the trading plaything, gets value on cash flow and production.

他们每月能交付多少架飞机，而不是像对伊朗战争这样的短期担忧。

How many planes they can deliver per month, not on short term concerns like the war on Iran.

它积压了超过6200架商用飞机的订单，这大约相当于十年的产量。

It's got a backlog of over 6,200 commercial planes, which is about ten years of production.

所以，这些考虑因素毫无意义。

So these kinds of considerations are meaningless.

不过，在日常交易中，这对波音股票来说并不重要。

On a day to day basis though, that doesn't matter to Boeing the stock.

你看，交易员会创建股票篮子，包括一个外交篮子和一个战争篮子。

See traders create baskets of stocks, including a basket for diplomacy and a basket for war.

几乎每次特朗普总统说他要狠狠打击伊朗时，那个包含波音的篮子就会遭受重创。

Almost every time president Trump says he's gonna hit Iran hard, the basket gets that it has the Boeing in it gets hammered.

结果这个周末，外交手段占了上风，你就知道股价会飙升，事实也确实如此，因为，嗯，如果走外交路线，买的就是这只股票。

Then this weekend, diplomacy prevailed, and you knew the stock would soar, which is exactly what happened because, well, this is what you buy if there's diplomacy.

公司对这些投资组合没什么办法，即使它们过度影响了自家股票的价格。

Companies can't do much about these baskets even as they over influence the prices of their stocks.

只有当公司发布财报时，股价才似乎与公司基本面保持一致。

The only time the stocks seem to align with the underlying business is when the companies report.

这时候信号多于噪音，这就引出了下一组与战争相关的扭曲现象——零售商。

There's more signal than noise, which brings me to the next set of war related distortions, the retailers.

在华尔街看来，零售商对战争非常敏感。

As Wall Street sees it, the retailers are very sensitive to the war.

当总统说我们要攻击伊朗时，资金流向就会放缓，那些在油价上涨时表现良好的低价零售商，比如好市多和沃尔玛，就会受到影响。

When the president says we're gonna attack Iran, the money flow slows to the low price retailers that thrive when the price of oil rises, namely Costco and Walmart.

当战争暂停时，另一个零售投资组合就会接手，转向那些非必需消费品零售商。

When the war goes on hold, a different retail basket takes over the discretion of retailers.

看到塔吉特、梅西百货、威廉姆斯-索诺玛的股票今天上涨，我一点也不意外。

Wasn't surprised to see the stocks of Target, Macy's, Williamson, number running today.

那些编制这类股票组合的交易员把这三家公司的股价跟 discretionary spending（非必需消费支出）绑在一起，觉得油价一涨就会拖累它们。

Traders who create these baskets regard those three as hostage to discretionary spending, and that gets hurt by higher gasoline prices.

我觉得这种分析颗粒度太细了，完全没意义。

I think this kind of granularity is totally fatuous.

Target 最近表现好，纯粹是因为去年年底换了管理层。

Target just happens to be doing better ever since the management switch late last year.

我们这边也受益于 CEO Laura Albert 出色的工作。

We have snow in better benefiting from the great work of CEO Laura Albert.

梅西百货的新管理层表现非常出色，把公司扭亏为盈了。

Macy's relatively new management has done a terrific job turning things around.

与此同时，好市多和沃尔玛都是那种长期稳健的优质零售商。

Meanwhile, Costco and Walmart, they're both excellent evergreen retailers.

不管战争局势如何，你都值得持有它们的股票。

You should own them regardless of the state of the war.

当然我们也清楚，业绩依然很重要，而且随着财报发布日的临近，那些受情绪影响的板块效应就会减弱。

Now we know that earnings still matter, and the power of the baskets recedes as you approach the actual day of reporting.

比如，拉尔夫·劳伦这家公司，周四就要发财报了。

For example, Ralph Warren, the company, reports Thursday.

这只股票之前一直被归在可选消费篮子里。

That stock's been part of the discretionary spending basket.

不过今天它似乎是在独立交易。

It seems to be trading on its own today though.

可能是担心业绩达不到预期，但我认为它这个季度会表现不错。

Out of fear perhaps that it might not make the numbers, I think it's headed for a good quarter.

话虽如此，拉尔夫·劳伦的股价已经涨了很多，也许该歇一歇了。

That said Ralph Lauren's had such a great run that maybe it's too for a breather.

这些篮子对我来说简直是噩梦，我可是真正花功夫研究公司基本面的。

These baskets are indeed a nightmare for people like me who actually do the homework and how companies are doing.

就拿“情境意识”这个案例来说吧。

Consider the case of situational awareness.

那是一家对冲基金，遭遇了巨额亏损，成了过度杠杆的牺牲品。

That's a hedge fund that got hit with horrendous losses, became a victim of over leverage.

这只基金的表现太传奇了，甚至有人专门编了指数来模仿它的操作。

The performance of this fund was so legendary that there were baskets created to mimic the fund's moves.

那个被称为神童的经理纳波利顿，显然认为硬件才是王道，而软件只是陪衬。

Neapolitan, the boy genius manager, apparently believed that hardware was king and software was pawned.

这两类都被打包成了指数产品。

Both traded as baskets.

不管基本面表现如何，软件指数都跑输了大盘，因为硬件跟人工智能挂钩，而软件则被视为人工智能的受害者。

The software basket underperformed the market regardless of performance of the underlying fundamentals because hardware was linked to AI and software was seen as a victim of AI.

上个月，随着Wonder Boys公司的倒闭，这种动态发生了逆转。

That dynamic reversed itself last month with the demise of the Wonder Boys firm.

现在这些股票又开始回归基本面交易了。

And these stocks are now trading the fundamentals again.

这就是为什么ServiceNow这家基本面最扎实的软件公司股价会走弱的原因。

Hence why ServiceNow, which has the best fundamentals case of the software companies, has sort of laid.

我觉得它还有上涨空间。

I think it's got further to run.

这次解禁也带动了Salesforce的股价。

The jailbreak has also unleashed the stock of Salesforce.

虽然大家觉得ServiceNow在AI方面更有优势，所以它更像是赢家。

Although ServiceNow is perceived to have more AI, so therefore it's more of a winner.

这些篮子基金最不好的地方在于，它们每天控制着交易节奏。

The worst thing about the baskets, they control the trading on a daily basis.

但好处是，在公司财报发布前，股票与基本面脱钩，这反而创造了真正的机会。

The best thing, they create real opportunities as the stocks divorce themselves from the fundamentals until the company's report.

当篮子的估值在真实财报面前崩塌时，就能获得巨大的收益。

There are big gains to be had when the worth of the baskets blows up in the face of real earnings.

很高兴看到基本面依然重要，哪怕它只在每年四次的财报季发挥作用。

It's good to see that the fundamentals still matter even if it only happens during earning season just four times a year.

Alexa，还有更多内容。

Alexa, there's always more.

只是为了你的钱袋子着想。

Just for your money.

我是吉姆·克莱默。

I'm Jim Cramer.

明天见。

See you tomorrow.

吉姆·克莱默在本播客中表达的所有观点仅代表他个人，不代表CNPC或其母公司及关联公司的立场，这些观点可能此前已通过电视、广播、互联网或其他媒体发布。

All opinions expressed by Jim Cramer on this podcast are solely Cramer's opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNPC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by Cramer on television, radio, internet or another medium.

你不应将克莱默的任何观点视为具体的投资建议或策略指引，而应仅视作他个人意见的表达。

You should not treat any opinion expressed by Cramer as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy but only as an expression of his opinion.

克莱默的观点基于他认为可靠的信息，但CNBC及其关联公司和子公司不保证其完整性和准确性，也不应将其作为依据。

Cramer's opinions are based upon information he considers reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such.

如需查看完整的《疯狂金钱》免责声明，请访问cnbc.com/madmoney免责声明页面。

To view the full Mad Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com/madmoney disclaimer.

是什么让你有信心去做一件以前没人做过的事？

What made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before?

我不怕失败。

I have no fear of failure.

那些改变格局的先锋女性。

Trailblazing women changing the game.

我最喜欢的一条建议是：想想你老板的老板需要什么。

One of my favorite pieces of advice, think about what your boss's boss needs.

领导力可以有很多种不同的表现形式。

Leadership can look in many, many different forms.

归根结底，还是要相信自己。

It really does come down to just trusting yourself.

人生苦短，

Life is short, and

你得敢想大的，才能做成大事。

you just gotta think big to accomplish big things.

朱莉娅·布尔斯廷主持CNBC的《变革者》和《权力玩家》节目。

Julia Boorstin hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players.

每周二，在你收听播客的任何平台都有新集更新。

New episodes every Tuesday wherever you get your podcasts.