Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer 9/11/26

这就是底线。

Here's the bottom line.

总的来说，这次甲骨文的财报让我比很久以来都更看好它的未来。

In the end, I came away from this Oracle quarter feeling more constructive about the company's future than I did in a long time.

这次电话会议平静、让人安心，几乎像一场正常的会议，公司交付了产能，收了客户的钱，还控制住了支出预期。

This was a calm, reassuring, almost normal call from a company delivering capacity, collecting customer money, and keeping its spending forecast under control.

我觉得这只股票现在有很大的回升空间。

I think the stock has a lot of room to recover here.

不过，数据中心成了政治皮球，你可能想等到大选之后再入场。

Although with the data center becoming political football, you might wanna stay on the sidelines until after the election.

但只要甲骨文继续这样表现，我其实不太担心它的前传。

But as long as Oracle keeps delivering like this, I'm actually not too worried about his prequel.

大家都回去休息了。

Everybody's back there for the break.

接下来，克拉默说历史可能即将重演。

Coming up, Cramer's Seeing Signs history may be about to repeat itself.

接下来，请继续收看他的应对计划。

Stick around for his plan to handle it if it does, next.

NFL开赛时间到了。

It's NFL kickoff time.

独家NFL球队估值，体育商业专家迈克尔·奥泽尼亚为您解读。

Exclusive NFL team valuations with sports business expert Michael Ozenia.

NFL是迄今为止最赚钱的联赛。

The NFL is by far the most profitable league.

NFL球队估值，现在就在cnbc.com/sport。

NFL team valuations now on cnbc.com/sport.

听听看，这是不是似曾相识。

Tell me if this sounds familiar.

现在是唐纳德·特朗普执政的第二年。

We're in the second year of a Donald Trump presence.

第一年股市表现不错，经历了一些早期动荡后，第二年也表现良好，主要由科技股领涨。

Stocks performed well in the first year, and after some early turmoil, they're doing well into the second year too, mostly led by tech.

但牛市也有明显的软肋。

But there are major chinks in the bull's arm.

油价一直在上涨。

Oil prices have been marching higher.

通胀数据已经偏离了美联储2%的目标。

Inflation readings have gotten away from the Fed's 2% target.

这很重要，因为特朗普总统刚任命了一位新的美联储主席，他需要证明自己。

That matters because we have a new Fed chairman, freshly appointed by president Trump, and he needs to be yes.

证明他是认真的。

Prove he's serious.

虽然这位新主席一直让人捉摸不透，但现在看来他准备收紧政策了。

While he's been tough to read, this new fed chief now seems poised to tighten.

与此同时，中期选举即将到来，看起来像是民主党大获全胜的一年。

Meanwhile, midterm elections are looming, and it looks like a democratic wave year.

这听起来是不是很像2026年？

Does this sound a lot like 2026?

对吧？

Right?

但其实不是。

It's not though.

我刚才描述的其实是2018年秋天的情况。

What I just described was the fall of twenty eighteen.

没错。

That's right.

我感觉我们正在重演八年前发生的事情，这其实是个坏消息，因为2018年秋天市场变得非常糟糕。

I feel like we're reliving what happened eight years ago, and that's actually bad news because the fall of twenty eighteen got real ugly for the market.

相似之处令人震惊。

Parallels are stunning.

2018年初，市场因为总统的关税政策而暂时受挫。

In early twenty eighteen, the market temporarily got derailed by the president's tariffs.

而今年，则是总统与伊朗的冲突。

This year, it was the president's war with Iran.

但总体来看，从2017年1月20日特朗普首次就职到2018年9月11日，标普指数上涨了27%。

But overall, from 01/20/2017, when Trump was first sworn in to 09/11/2018, the S and P was up 27%.

而这次，从就职典礼到今天，涨幅不到28%。

This time, from the inauguration to today, it's up under 28%.

2018年，油价在全年头九个月稳步攀升，从大约60美元一路涨到九月底的七十多美元。

In 2018, oil prices were climbing steadily higher throughout the first nine months of the year, going from around $60 to the mid seventies by the end of September.

今年，油价也是从60美元左右起步，但涨得更猛，现在已经在100美元附近了。

This year, oil has also started around $60, but it's rallied a lot harder, now sitting around $100.

回想2018年，我们当时担心的是通胀。

Back in 2018, we were worried about inflation.

那是在疫情导致价格冲击之前，所以当时的高通胀也就在2%到3%之间。

This was before the pandemic price shocks, so high inflation back then was still in the two to 3% range.

而今天，我们拿到了八月份的消费者价格指数，同比上涨了3.4%。

Today, we got the August consumer price index, and it was up 3.4%.

这足以让美联储加息，就像我在节目开头提到的。

That's enough to justify a rate hike from the Fed as I mentioned at the top of the show.

债券市场也有类似的情况。

You can see parallels in the bond market too.

2018年，十年期国债收益率是2.5%。

In 2018, the yield of ten year treasury, it was two and a half.

那挺好的。

That's sweet.

年初的时候，到九月底就超过了3%。

At the beginning of the year to over 3% by the end of September.

今年，十年期国债收益率从4.2%涨到了接近5%。

This year, the tenure's gone from 4.2% to just under 5%.

那美联储呢？

How about the Fed?

嗯，可能有点难记，但最初任命前美联储主席杰伊·鲍威尔的其实是特朗普总统。

Well, it's kind of hard to remember, but it was president Trump who originally appointed former Fed chief Jay Powell.

他在二月初接替了退休的珍妮特·耶伦。

He took over when Janet Yellen in early February, retired.

与此同时，美联储当时正处于加息周期中，鲍威尔基本上就是接过了那个政策的接力棒，在三月和六月又加了两次息。

At the same at the time, the Fed was well into a rate hike cycle, and Powell basically just picked up the mantle from that regime, adding a couple of additional rate hikes in March and June.

鲍威尔上任美联储主席才几个月，我们当时还真不知道他会往哪个方向走。

Still a few months into his tenure as Fed chief, we didn't really know which way Powell would jump.

但后来美联储在九月底又加了一次息，加了25个基点，接着十二月又加了第四次。

But then the Fed put through another quarter point rate hike in late September followed by a fourth one in December.

这两个巨头把股市给砸惨了。

These two titans crushed the stock market.

突然间，鲍威尔就开始对通胀宣战了，看起来他为了救经济，甚至不惜毁掉它。

Suddenly, Powell was on the warpath against inflation, and he seemed willing to destroy the economy in order to save it.

再看看今天的情况。

Compare that to today.

我们又迎来了一位新的美联储主席。

Once again, we have a new Fed chairman.

他叫凯文·莫里斯，五月上任的。

His name is Kevin Morris, took over in May.

过去几个月我们一直在试图摸清这个人的底细，说实话，没什么进展。

We've spent the past few months trying to get a read on the guy without much success, frankly.

但现在我们终于开始找到一些线索了。

But now we're finally starting to get some clues.

很多人觉得他在杰克逊霍尔的讲话偏鹰派。

Many felt his Jackson Hole address was on the hawkish side.

今天公布的CPI数据虽然符合预期，但依然偏高，联邦基金期货市场显示，下周美联储加息的可能性有87%。

And after today's in line, but still pretty hot CPI reading, Fed the funds futures market suggests there's an 87% chance that the Fed raises rates next week.

换句话说，如果他们不加息，那才让人意外。

In other words, it'd be a shock if they didn't.

然后还有地缘政治风险。

Then there are the geopolitical risks.

2018年的时候，是不断升级的对华贸易战，还有很多听起来像是冷战时期的说辞。

In 2018, it was an escalating trade war with China and a lot of rhetoric that sounded like it came straight out of the Cold War.

到了2026年，我们还得跟伊朗打更多仗，这场冲突拖得没完没了。

2026, well, we gotta shoot more with Iran that's dragged on endlessly.

最后，还有中期选举。

Finally, there are the midterms.

2018年，民主党最终重新控制了众议院，但没有拿下参议院。

In 2018, the Democrats ultimately regained control of the house, didn't pick up the senate.

我不喜欢在节目里谈政治。

I don't like getting into politics in the show.

我觉得那纯粹是浪费时间。

I think it's what it's just a waste.

但现在看来，民主党会拿下众议院，而参议院则更悬。

But it's looking like the democrats will take the house while the senate is more of a toss-up.

嗯，众议院有很多选区划分的问题。

Well, there's a lot of gerrymandering in the house.

不过看起来确实是这样。

So but it does seem like it.

我提这个是因为2018年第四季度对股市来说相当惨烈。

I bring this up because the fourth quarter of twenty eighteen was pretty brutal for stocks.

我记得那真是太惨了。

I remember it was terrible.

我当时在伦敦看老鹰队对美洲虎队的比赛。

I was over in London for the eagles jags game.

当时感觉就是，天哪。

It was like, oh my god.

我脑子都转不过来了。

My head was spinning.

我当时在哈里斯那个地方。

I was in this place, Harris.

我完全不知道。

I didn't know it.

标普500从9月底的高点到圣诞节后的低点，暴跌了20%。

The s and p five hundred plunging 20% from its late September highs to its lows just after Christmas.

天哪，那场面真是。

God, what appeared.

纳斯达克跌得更惨，从最高点到最低点跌了24%。

The Nasdaq was hit even harder down 24% peak to trough.

整个假期季都泡汤了。

It wasted the whole holiday season.

虽然市场在2018年9月底才达到技术性高点，但抛售在10月初就开始了。

While the market technically peaked in late September of of twenty eighteen, the sell off caught fire in early October.

负面催化剂接二连三地出现。

One two punch of negative catalyst.

那年10月3日，杰伊·鲍威尔暗示还会有几次加息。

On October 3 of that year, Jay Powell signaled that several more rate hikes were coming.

真不敢相信他会这么做。

Couldn't believe he did that.

第二天，副总统彭斯在哈德逊研究所发表了极其强硬的反华演讲。

And then the next day, vice president pence pence gave this extremely aggressive anti China speech at the Hudson Institute.

我们预计接下来的几个月会很难熬。

We expect the next few months to get clobbered.

当然，虽然和2018年有很多相似之处，但我们也有很多不同点。

Of course, while there are a lot of similarities with 2018, we got plenty of differences.

首先，华尔街对特朗普总统的运作方式已经非常熟悉了。

For starters, Wall Street's much more familiar with how president Trump operates.

大家普遍觉得，如果他真做了什么对股市特别糟糕的事，一旦市场下跌，他很可能就会收回成命。

There's a widespread sense that if he does something really ruinous for stocks, we'll likely walk it back once the market goes down and up.

另一方面，油价、通胀和利率的绝对水平都比八年前高得多。

On the other hand, oil inflation and interest rates are all much higher in absolute terms than they were eight years ago.

这让人有点不安。

It's disconcerting.

要说的话，2026年9月看起来比2018年9月还要糟糕一些。

If anything, September 2026 looks a bit worse than September 2018.

但当时真正的问题是鲍威尔太激进了，预测了一系列市场承受不了的猛烈加息。

But the real problem back then was that j pal got too aggressive, predicting a series of savage rate hikes that the market couldn't handle.

当他最终收回那个预测时，市场就强劲反弹了。

When he eventually reputed that forecast, the market came roaring back.

这次我觉得，沃勒似乎没那么热衷于不惜一切代价对抗通胀了。

This time, I think, worse seems like a less gung ho about fighting inflation by any means necessary.

那这些相似之处又怎么说呢？

So so what about these parallels?

你会怎么做？

What do you do?

我不是说你就该把所有东西都卖了，因为历史会重演。

I'm not saying you should just sell everything because history is gonna repeat itself.

那太傻了。

That's stupid.

凯文·沃什在2018年的时候就在场。

Kevin Walsh was around 2018.

他大概不会重蹈鲍威尔的覆辙。

He's probably not gonna repeat Powell's mistakes.

而且，在2018年第四季度那波大幅抛售之后，我们在2019年迎来了一波非常强劲的反弹，那一年市场涨了将近30%。

Plus, after that steep sell off in the fourth quarter of twenty eighteen, we had went on to have this incredibly powerful rally in 2019, market up nearly 30% that year.

到了2019年初，鲍威尔改变了态度，开始连续三次降息。

After PayPal changed his tune by early twenty nineteen, he went around cutting rates for three times.

2018年9月创下的高点，在2019年10月底就被突破了。

The highs that we set in September 2018 were taken out by late October of twenty nineteen.

除了少数情况外，即使担心回调，坚持持有并留在市场几乎总是值得的。

Except for a few circumstances, it almost always pays to stay course and remain in the market even if you're worried about a pullback.

所以，我会这么做。

So here's what what what what I'll do.

如果股市真的开始变得不稳定，我要告诉你，别慌。

If things do start getting squirrelly for stocks, I'm gonna tell you, do not freak out.

如果你担心2018年重演，我希望你减持一些盈利的股票。

If you're worried about a repeat of 2018, I want you to trim some of your winners.

落袋为安，这正是我们为Chapel Trust所做的。

Take something off the table, and that is exactly what we've been doing for the Chapel Trust.

把现金比例提高到15%左右，比平时高一些。

Take your cash position up to the mid teens, watch higher than usual.

如果你没有恐慌，而且手头有不错的现金仓位、现金余额，那你就能利用任何市场疲软的机会，去买回那些因为担心市场而不是担心公司本身而减持的高质量股票。

If you're not panicking and you have a nice cash position, nice cash balance, then you'll be able to use any weakness to actually buy the high quality stocks that you trimmed because you were concerned about the market, not the companies.

所以，这就是底线。

So here's the bottom line.

归根结底，当前时刻和2018年秋天有一些令人不安的相似之处，而且这些相似之处并不好。

At the end of the day, there are some eerie similarities between the current moment and the fall of twenty eighteen, and they're not good.

我不认为这次历史会重演，但可能会押韵。

I don't think history will repeat will repeat this time, but it might rhyme.

而这一点，可以说，你只需要留意一下。

And that's something, let's say, you just need to keep an eye on.

我想接听听众来电。

I wanna take calls.

我想接听来自佛罗里达的凯文的电话。

I wanna go to Kevin in Florida.

凯文。

Kevin.

嗨，吉姆！

Booyah, Jim.

老鹰队加油！

Let's go eagles.

来吧，干就完了！

Let's do it.

好的。

Alright.

老鹰队加油！

Let's go birds.

这周我们有场重要的比赛。

We got a big game this week.

这我们知道。

We know that.

我有点紧张，因为，你知道，你看，我就是，叫我紧张先生吧。

I'm a little nervous because we you know, look, I'm I'm just call me nerves.

就这么说吧。

Let's just say that.

然后我们来看看，要不聊只股票？

And let's go to let's how about a stock?

那聊只股票怎么样？

How about a stock then?

波音。

Boeing.

波音。

Boeing.

吉姆，我很喜欢那位新CEO。

Jim, I love the new CEO.

我觉得他已经扭转了局面，但你知道，现在他们又面临罢工的问题。

I think he's turned things around, but it's you know, now they have another strike room.

而且我好像持有这只股票好多年了，感觉它一直横盘不动。

And it seems like I've owned the stock for years, and it seems like it's it sideways.

它到底什么时候才能振作起来，开始上涨呢？

When is it going to finally get its stuff together and go?

你看，凯文是佛罗里达来的，他口音跟我一样。

See, Kevin's from Florida, he's got the same accent I have.

所以我在琢磨。

So I'm trying to figure out.

你可能是从第十街来的，基督徒。

You might have been from tenth in Christian.

我是这么想的。

That's what I think.

我觉得你是从第六街来的，里德。

I think you're or sixth in Reed.

我们在费城总是这么干。

That's how we always do it in Philadelphia.

第一街，然后另一条街。

1 Street and then another.

我们太本地化了。

We're so local.

真是疯了。

It's crazy.

我觉得波音准备要涨了。

I think that Boeing is ready to go up.

但问题在这里。

But here's the problem.

每次原油涨一块钱，股票就跌一块钱。

Every time crude goes up a dollar, the stock goes down a dollar.

你想想看。

And that think about it.

那其实就是这个比例。

That was actually the ratio.

我就在研究这个。

I just work on this.

而且因为今天原油下跌，波音涨了5美元。

And because today, crude was down, Boeing went up $5.

这完全没道理，太蠢了，因为实际上，航空公司需要更多飞机，因为新飞机更省油。

And it is just total no, it's so stupid because in truth, company the airlines need more planes because the planes are more fuel efficient.

所以在这种环境下他们其实表现更好，但没人关心这个。

So they actually do better in this environment, but nobody cares.

他们知道航空公司得借钱买飞机，利率又高，还觉得油价高就是坏事。

They know that airlines have to borrow money to buy planes and rates are higher, and they think that oil somehow is bad.

但最终的结果是，股价纹丝不动。

But what ends up happening is the stock does nothing.

我觉得它快要涨了，因为油价可能见顶了，除非那边出什么大乱子。

I think it's about to go up because I think oil might be peaking unless there's some catastrophe over there.

我想连线佛罗里达的约翰。

I wanna go to John in Florida.

约翰。

John.

吉姆，你知道蓝马蹄铁很喜欢英伟达，也很喜欢你吉姆·克莱默。

Jim, you know Blue Horseshoe loves NVIDIA and loves Jim Cramer.

哦，天哪。

Oh, man.

接下来我要讲的是阿纳康达·科珀斯。

I got an Anaconda Koppers next.

我跟你说。

Let me tell you.

怎么了？

What's up?

怎么了？

What's up?

谢谢你跟詹森提了双倍回购的事，而且几天后又跟进提出了四倍回购。

Thank you for confronting Jensen with a double buyback and following up days later with a quadruple buyback.

希望你能跟詹森谈谈四倍股息的事，因为台积电的股息是1美元11美分，而英伟达只有25美分。

Hopefully, you will talk to Jensen about a quadruple dividend because TSMC is a dollar and 11¢, and NVIDIA is only 25¢.

我今天的问题是，每次我看到英伟达涨一美元或50美分，AMD就涨12美元。

My question today is every time I looked at NVIDIA going up a dollar or 50¢, AMD goes up $12.

我是不是应该买AMD？

Should I be buying AMD?

我昨天跟俱乐部开电话会议时承认，AMD和戴尔，我被我的限制搞糊涂了。

My conference call yesterday with the club, I admitted that AMD and Dell, I was confounded by my restrictions.

每次我在电视上说我们可能会买AMD，我们可能会买戴尔，这两只股票是市场上最好的两只。

Every time I was talking about on TV, we're probably gonna buy AMD, we're probably gonna buy Dell, those are the two best stocks this market.

我自己都烦自己。

I frustrated myself.

因为我的限制，我没法下手。

I couldn't I wasn't able to pull the trigger because of my restrictions.

AMD是个很棒的公司。

AMD's a fantastic stuff.

非常棒的公司。

Fantastic company.

而且丽莎·苏也很棒。

And Lisa Sue's great.

买吧。

Buy it.

就这么简单。

End of story.

如果你担心2018年底那种抛售会重演，也许可以稍微减点仓。

If you're worried about a repeat of the late year sell off of 2018, maybe take a little off the table.

现在的对比真的很明显。

Comparisons are really here in here.

我看到了一些相似之处。

I'm seeing some real rhymes.

不过别慌。

Don't panic though.

记住，我只是想让你手里有点现金，等股价跌下来再买回来。

And remember, I just want the cash so that you can buy stock back after they've come down.

还有更多的钱。

Much more money at.

在昨天非常成功的投资俱乐部交流之后，我现在要回答更多你的市场问题。

I'm taking some more of your market questions after yesterday's very successful investing club back and forth.

不过我觉得那有点情绪化。

I thought it was a little visceral though.

我现在接听所有来电，为今晚的《闪电回合》画上圆满句号。

And I'm taking all your calls wrapping fine tonight's edition of the Lightning Round.

在这个国家最黑暗的日子之一——9·11事件25周年之际，我要回顾一下9月11日及其持久影响，至少是我不想被遗忘的影响。

And on the twenty fifth anniversary of one of our darkest days in this country, I'm taking a look back at September 11 and its lasting impact, or at least an impact that I don't want forgotten.

请继续关注。

Stay with me.

今天所有主要股指都从昨天的下跌中反弹了。

Get all the major averages today bounce back from yesterday's decline.

但市场徘徊在历史高位附近，是时候退一步，回答你对股市可能走向的担忧和问题了。

But with the market hovering near all time highs, it's time we take a step back and address your questions about concerns about where stocks could be headed.

昨天我们开了一个很不错的会。

Yesterday, we had it was actually a pretty great meeting.

就是那个投资俱乐部的月度会议，我和杰夫·马克斯带大家过一遍俱乐部的持仓。

This investing club monthly meeting where Jeff Marks and I, we walk people through the club's positions.

我们会展示我们的决策是怎么做出来的。

We show you how our decisions are made.

我们会讨论当前的持仓，然后回答俱乐部成员的问题。

We discuss our current holdings, and then we take questions from our club members.

那是我在会议里最喜欢的部分。

Well, that's my favorite part of the meeting.

就是回答你们的问题。

It's taking questions from you.

但你知道吗？

But you know what?

我们总是没时间把所有问题都回答完。

We never have time to get to all of them.

所以今晚我要带你们看看月度会议里到底发生了什么，同时也希望能给你们一些急需的市场信息。

So I'm gonna give you an inside look tonight at what happens at the monthly meetings while also doling out, I hope, some much needed market information.

顺便说一下，如果你想参加下个月的会议，就加入俱乐部吧。

By the way, if you want to be a part of the next monthly meeting, join the club.

扫我身后这个二维码就行，或者我觉得更简单的是，

Just scan the QR code here behind me or even easier, I think.

去 cmbc.com/investingclub 这个网址。

Go to c m b c dot com slash investing club.

我想你会喜欢的。

I think you're gonna like it.

真的，我真心这么觉得。

I really do.

我要是没提的话，别忘了现在加入还会送你一本书——《如何在任何市场里赚钱》。

I I wouldn't be mentioning, don't forget throwing in a book right now, How to make money in any market if you do that.

好了。

Alright.

首先，我们收到新泽西州阿伦的一个问题，他问：DraftKings跌得这么低，是不是已经变成投机性投资了？

First, we got a question from, Arlen in New Jersey who asked, has DraftKings drifted so low it has become a speculative investment?

我在2023年买了这只股票，现在如果卖掉的话，刚好回本，还没算上过去三年这笔钱放在别处投资的机会成本。

I bought this stock back in 2023, and I break it breakeven at this point if I sold it now, not counting the lost opportunity to invest in that money elsewhere over the last three years.

还值得继续持有吗？

Is it worth holding on to?

感谢你为我们做的一切。

Thanks for all you do for us.

首先，不客气。

First of all, you're welcome.

我觉得这个问题问得很好。

I think it's terrific.

这个问题很难回答。

This is a very hard one.

我来告诉你为什么。

I'll tell you why.

因为现在大家都迷上赌博了，所以很多网站都流量很大。

Because everyone's gripped by gambling and so therefore, we we are a lot of sites are getting a lot of traffic.

但我发现DraftKings现在，我是说，他们和其他公司一样，都绷得很紧。

But I found that DraftKings is now I mean, they're they're stretched like all the other guys.

他们得花更多钱，我觉得，才能拉到客户。

They got to spend a little more money, think, to get customers.

他们可能会跟你说不是这样，但这就是我对这个行业的看法。

They may tell you otherwise, but that's how I feel about this group.

所以我要说，是时候了。

So I'm going to say, it's time.

是时候该放手了。

It's time that you move on.

这个行业太拥挤了。

It's just too crowded a group.

虽然我喜欢梦幻体育，但我前几天看到Jason Robins，他是个非常出色的CEO。

And while I like draft games, I saw Jason Robins on the other day, he's a terrific CEO.

这个板块太难了，所以我觉得你必须得走。

The group is just too hard and that's why I think you have to go.

好的，接下来是来自科罗拉多的斯科特提问：当你有一只大涨的股票时，你怎么知道是该锁定利润离场，还是只是回调之后还会继续涨？

Alright, next we have Scott from Colorado who asks, when you have a big gainer stock, how do you know it is time to protect the gain and exit versus it being only a pullback before more gains.

这看起来非常难判断，因为基本面可能仍然非常看涨，但市场，也就是羊群效应，可能转向，通过抛售把股价压低。

This seems exceedingly hard to tell because the story may still be very bullish, but the market, the herd can turn and send the stock lower via selling.

我喜欢“羊群”这个说法，我经常这么想。

I love that the herd and that's how I think about it a lot.

好的，所以这个问题是我在月度会议开始时演讲中最重要的部分，这是一个跨领域的问题。

Alright, so this is the question that was the top of my piece of that when I I do a speech at the beginning of the of monthly meeting, which is this is a cross discipline issue.

当你喜欢一只股票，但你已经有了很大的涨幅，而你在想是否可能失去这些涨幅时，这其实是个很简单的问题。

And when you like a stock, but you have a big game, and you're trying to figure out whether you might lose the big game, it's a very simple issue.

你必须锁定利润，因为我们不能让盈利变成亏损，而且纪律必须战胜信念。

You must take the game because we can't have a, gain turn into a loss, and we have to have discipline trumping conviction.

所以，你有一只你深信不疑的股票，对吧？

So you've got a stock where you have a conviction in, right?

但你得保住收益，必须按纪律来。

But you have to protect the gain, you have to go with the gate.

就这么简单。

It is plain and simple.

我知道，卖出那些利润很难，而且你卖的是真正的好股票，但这就是两难之处，只有通过卖出这个跨领域的纪律才能解决。

I know it's hard to take those profits and you're selling a really good stock, but that's the dilemma and it's only answered by that cross discipline of sell.

接下来，印第安纳州的比利说，吉姆，你好啊！

Next up, have Billy from Indiana who says, booyah, Jim.

比利，你好！

Booyah, Billy.

当然，还有杰夫。

And of course, in Jeff.

这个美国主食品牌在过去十二个月里下跌了将近20%。

This American staple is down almost 20% in the last twelve months.

牛肉价格无疑是一个因素，但拜托，这可是麦当劳啊。

The price of beef is no doubt a factor, but come on, this is McDonald's for crying out loud.

每个街角都有一家。

There's one on every extreme corner.

麦当劳，买、卖还是持有？

Buy, sell, or hold McDonald's.

感谢你所做的一切。

Thank you for all you do.

好的。

Okay.

我希望你在这里买入。

I want you to buy it here.

我跟你说。

I'm gonna tell what.

我觉得麦当劳有计划。

I think McDonald's has plans.

他们非常谨慎，但正在努力重塑这家店。

They are very cagey, but they are trying to reinvent the place.

而且我觉得你现在买入的价格非常低。

And I think that you're getting it at an exceedingly low level.

如果它还在300美元的水平，我是不会推荐的，因为那风险太大了。

I wouldn't recommend it if it were still at the 300 level because that's too risky.

但现在这个价位，我支持你。

But where it is now, I'm with you.

我觉得他们能做到。

I think that they could do it.

顺便说一句，其他公司没有麦当劳那么雄厚的资金，但我得提前给你提个醒。

By the way, the other guys are not as well capitalized as McDonald's, but I'm gonna give you a little heads up here.

你可能不想听，但我还是要告诉你。

You might not wanna hear it, but I'm gonna give it to you.

Jersey Mike's 更好。

Jersey Mike's is better.

Jersey Mike 前几天和首席执行官 Charlie Morrison 聊了聊，之前上市的时候也聊过。

Jersey Mike spent some time with Charlie Morrison, CEO the other day, also before when it came public.

我觉得这个风险小得多，而且他们能开几千家店，管理团队也非常出色。

I think it's got a lot less risk, and they can put up thousands of them and it's got a terrific management.

我喜欢麦当劳，但我也想让你考虑一下这家Jersey Mike's。

I like McDonald's, but I want you to consider this Jersey Mike's too.

现在有个叫Bob的朋友问，十年期国债收益率到多少时，你会考虑在投资组合里加长期债券？

Now we have Bob who asked, at what ten year treasury interest rate would you consider adding a long bond to your portfolio?

我有一些年长的朋友，老是吹嘘说在早期那会儿，他们买了收益率接近15%的三十年国债。

I have older friends who continuously brag about buying 30 year treasuries for nearly 15% yield to maturity in the early nineteen days.

那样的话，似乎连股票投资者都会考虑债券，你说得对。

It would seem that even an equity investor could consider bonds at that point, and you are right.

对吧？

Okay?

就算现在，如果十年期国债收益率能达到5%，我觉得根据你的年龄，比如你50岁，放一些进去是可以的。

Even right now, if you can get the ten year for 5%, I think it's okay to put, depending upon your age, 50 per you know, you're 50, you wanna put some in.

如果你60岁，也放一些进去。

If you're 60, you put some in.

如果你70岁，那就多投一些。

If you're 70, you put more in.

不过我不希望你完全退出普通股。

I don't want you to get out of common stocks though.

我只想让你投一部分在债券里，因为一旦你买了债券，即使它们能复利，你也永远赚不到足够的钱，因为我们国家是个贪婪的资本主义地方。

I only want some in bonds because once you do bonds, even though they can compound, you're never going to make enough money because our country is a rapacious capitalist place.

如果你50岁或60岁就开始买太多债券，等你到80岁或90岁时，钱就不够用了，别跟自己过不去。

And you will not, if you start buying too many bonds when you're 50 or 60, have enough money when you get to 80 or 90, and don't bet against yourself.

那是一张牌。

That's a card.

他们会坐着的。

They'll sit.

再次感谢你们所有的俱乐部成员。

Thanks again to all your club club members.

看吧。

Look.

我希望你加入这个俱乐部。

I want you to join the club.

我昨天的会议开得非常好。

I'm yesterday's meeting was really good.

你得回到那些好的方面去。

You gotta go back to what's good.

再次感谢大家。

Thanks again to everybody.

市长大人回来了。

Mayor money's back.

开始吧。

Up.

你有问题。

You've got questions.

克拉默有答案。

Cramer's got the answers.

接下来，准备好迎接一场快速的闪电问答吧。

Get charged up for a fast fire lightning round next.

时候到了。

It is time.

现在是白色回合的时间。

It's time for the white round.

然后闪电问答就结束了。

And then the lightning round is over.

准备好了吗？

Are you ready?

白色回合就是这么来的。

That's how the white round comes from.

我们从美属萨摩亚的PT开始。

We'll start with PT from American Samoa.

PT。

Pt.

嘿，吉姆。

Hey Jim.

有好消息。

Good news.

今年我的梦幻选秀选到了马克·桑切斯。

I got Mark Sanchez in my fantasy draft this year.

马克·桑切斯。

Mark Sanchez.

哎呀，老兄，我跟你说，你真是个怀旧的人。

Well man I tell you you're a throwback.

这点我可以告诉你。

I'll tell you that much.

我会把他的球衣寄给你。

I'll send you the jersey his own.

那天我弄到了一个签名。

I got a sign up from that day.

怎么了？

What's up?

怎么了？我的最佳赢家来了。

What's up is my best winner.

我该留着它吗？

Should I keep it?

Sphere，S T H O。

Sphere s t h o.

Sphere真的很棒，你知道吗，我得告诉你，有一点是在告诉多兰家族他们不是天才。

Sphere is really, you know, I got to tell you, want one point is telling the Dolans that they're not geniuses.

我对此表示怀疑。

I question that.

我觉得Sphere太棒了。

I think Sphere is amazing.

我们连线一下新泽西州霍姆斯特德的安东尼。

Let's go to Anthony in my homestead, New Jersey.

安东尼。

Anthony.

嘿，吉姆。

Hey, Jim.

我关注你很久了。

Long time follower.

我很喜欢这个节目。

Love this show.

嘿。

Hey.

有个问题想问你。

Quick question.

我持有霍尼韦尔航空航天公司的股票。

I own Honeywell Aerospace.

我应该买入、持有，还是继续加仓？

Should I buy, hold, or accumulate more?

我没办法建议你持有这只股票，因为Albany那边的情况，而且Jim Cramer是CEO，他三次告诉Phil LaBeau说情况很好，但实际上并不是这样。

I I can't counsel owning that because of Albany and Jim Cramer is the CEO and he told Phil LaBeau three times that things were going quite well and they weren't.

我听说情况很好，但实际上并不是这样。

I heard they were going quite well and they weren't.

所以我对Honeywell Aerospace没什么好话可说。

And so therefore I have nothing good to say about Honeywell Aerospace.

我们连线加州的Brenda。

Let's go to Brenda California.

Brenda。

Brenda.

嗨，Jim。

Hi Jim.

你好吗？

How are you.

我很好。

I'm good.

你好吗？

How are you.

我挺好的。

I'm fine.

谢谢你。

Thank you.

我是俱乐部会员，非常感谢你为我们所做的一切。

I'm a club member and I thank you so much for all all you do to help us.

谢谢。

Thank you.

吉姆，我的情况是这样的，我有一只股票涨了800%。

My situation, Jim, is I have a stock that was up 800%.

现在它已经回撤了。

It has pulled back to now.

现在涨幅是400%。

It's up 400%.

问题是，我是应该落袋为安，还是继续持有呢？

The question is, should I ring the register and move on, or should I stick with it?

这只股票现在是11块。

The stock is at 11.

你知道，听我说。

You know, look.

它们可能会有小幅反弹，但那些大机构已经进入这个市场了，所以股价才会下跌。

They can have a little bit of bounce, but they the other guy big guys have come into that market, and that's why the stock's going down.

我更倾向于你看，它已经跌了51%。

I prefer you see it's down 51%.

我建议你先卖一半，等反弹的时候再卖另一半。

I prefer you to sell half now and sell half on the bounce.

这就是我要给你的建议。

That's what I'm going to recommend to you.

可以说，这已经是过去式了。

It's it's yesterday's story so to speak.

嘿，我要去找比尔和马泽夫斯基。

Hey I'm going to Bill and Matzewski.

比尔。

Bill.

嘿，吉姆，你觉得金科尔公司是做什么的？

Hey Jim what do you think a Kim Cole corporation makes.

我更喜欢BWXT一点，但我觉得这家Camco是真的有实力。

I like BWXT a little more but I think I think that this Camco's for real.

我真的这么认为，因为我觉得我们会拥抱核能，但这需要三到五年的时间。

I really do because I think we are going to embrace nuclear power but it's a three three to five year issue.

记住，要三到五年才能看到真正的收益。

Remember that take three to five years before you see any real earnings.

嗯，在行业真正增长之前，他们已经有收益了。

Well they have earnings before you see any real growth in the industry.

我们连线德克萨斯州的迈克尔。

Let's go to Michael in Texas.

迈克尔。

Michael.

嘿，吉姆，我的股票亏惨了。

Hey Jim my stock is in the hole.

我是该留着还是该转投XO？

Should I stay or should I go to XO.

我很惊讶布拉德·雅各布斯居然是个赢家。

I am very surprised that Brad Jacobs is a winner.

这其实是个输家。

This is a loser.

我不想放弃布拉德，但说实话，这跟家得宝的情况一样，只不过家得宝有股息，而且会员们都在里面。

I don't think Brad I don't want to give up on Brad but I'll tell you it's the same thing as Home Depot except for Home Depot's got a yield and people in the club.

你知道，他们觉得我在家得宝上判断错了。

You know they feel like I'm wrong at Home Depot.

QXO感觉非常不对劲，但这是布拉德·雅各布斯，我不想跟他对着干。

QXO feels very wrong but it's Brad Jacobs and I don't want to bet against him.

我想连线密歇根的史蒂夫。

I want to go to Steve in Michigan.

史蒂夫。

Steve.

吉姆，你好吗？

Jim how are you.

我很好，史蒂夫。

I am good Steve.

你好

How are

吗？

you doing.

我很好。

I'm good.

嘿，吉姆。

Hey Jim.

我是老听众了，第一次打电话进来。

I'm a longtime listener first time caller.

好的。

Okay.

我通过股息再投资计划积累了大量这家公司的股票，长期定期购买。

I accumulated large number of shares of this company through dividend reinvestment plan, made a purchase over a long period of time on a regular basis.

我应该卖出、继续买入，还是持有Aflac？

Should I sell, continue to buy, or hold Aflac?

Aflac的股票不贵，而且它也没有那种惊人的增长，但我觉得在这个基本没怎么变的位置，风险也不大。

Aflac is not an expensive stock, and it doesn't have a, you know, a killer amount of growth, but I don't think it has that much risk down here where it's basically unchanged.

我觉得你持有Aflac还可以，不算特别好，也不算差。

I think you're okay, not great, not bad in Aflac.

各位，这就是闪电回合的全部内容。

And that, ladies and gentlemen, of the lightning round.

闪电回合由嘉信理财赞助。

The lightning round is sponsored by Charles Schwab.

在911事件25周年纪念日即将到来之际，克莱默正在反思那天的意义。

Coming up on the twenty fifth anniversary of nine eleven, Cramer's reflecting on the significance of that day.

接下来。

Next.

今天，我们为世贸中心的遇难者默哀了两次，还为25年前在五角大楼遇难的人默哀了一次。

Today, we had two moments of silence for the fall at the World Trade Center and another moment of silence for those who were killed at the Pentagon on nine eleven twenty five years ago.

那种感受非常真切。

It's visceral.

布莱恩特公园里为每位逝者摆放的空椅子，以及那些勾勒出倒塌建筑轮廓、仿佛它们依然屹立的璀璨夜灯，同样令人动容。

As are the empty chairs for each person no longer with us placed in Bryant Park, and the amazing night lights that traced out the crushed buildings as if they were still standing.

我向所有这些纪念活动致敬。

I salute all those efforts.

它们真诚地缅怀了那天所有逝去的人，但这还不够。

They are sincere remembers of all those who died that day, but they are not enough.

我不禁在想，我们今天到底为什么要工作？

I find myself wondering, why are we working today at all?

为什么要三次默哀？

Why three silent moments?

不如设立一个纪念日？

How about a day of remembrance?

事情刚发生时，我们尽力团结在一起。

When it first happened, we did our best to join together.

从那以后，我们念过遇难者的名字，举办过感人的纪念活动，但时间过去很久了，很多亲历者也相继离世。

Ever since then, we've read the names, we've offered beautiful commemorations, But a lot of time has passed, and a lot of people have passed on with them.

现在，全国有三分之一的人在911那天要么才五岁，要么更小，要么还没出生。

Now one third of the country was five years older or five years old or younger, or not even born on 09/11.

他们可能不记得或根本不知道美国遭袭、数千人遇难的那一天。

They can or don't remember that day when America was attacked and thousands died.

顺便说一句，那些遇难者不是军人。

By the way, the people who died were they weren't soldiers.

他们不是随时准备战斗的战士。

They weren't combatants ready for action.

他们只是普通人在一个美好的早晨去上班，却因此失去了生命。

They were just regular people going to work on a beautiful morning, they lost their lives for that.

默哀片刻和念名字根本不足以让这些人的记忆延续下去。

Moments of silence and a reading of names just aren't enough to keep these people's memories alive.

它们没有完全反映出这个国家真正团结起来的那段艰难岁月。

They don't fully reflect a gritty time when this nation actually pulled together.

我担心我们需要做得更多。

I'm concerned that we need to do more.

我们需要把那天发生的事情教给所有永远不会知道曾经发生过什么的人。

We need to teach what happened that day to all those who will never know that anything happened at all.

我们需要一个日子来思考那次袭击的可怕本质。

We need to have we need to have a day to ponder the horrendous nature of that attack.

我知道只有一个纪念九一一的博物馆，所以不可能让成千上万甚至数万辆校车那天都涌到那个了不起的地方。

I know there's only one museum commemorating nine eleven, so you can't have thousands or tens of thousands of school buses arriving that day to go through the remarkable place.

但如果我们有一个全国性的纪念日，学校放假，那就能让人集中注意力。

But if we had a national day of remembrance when schools are off, it would concentrate the mind.

人们会被吸引到市中心，去那个令人难以置信又无比悲伤的博物馆，了解更多关于那几分钟恐怖时刻的细节。

People will be drawn to downtown and to that incredible and incredibly sad museum to learn more about those minutes of terror.

这是必要的。

This is needed.

9·11改变了一切。

September 11 changed everything.

对我来说，那一天永远难以忘怀。

It will always be easy for me to remember.

我当时就在离现场不远的地方，处于封锁状态，等着出去，生怕我们成为下一个目标。

I was down here close to the site on lockdown, waiting to get out lest we'd be hit next.

当安保人员放我们出来时，双子塔已经倒塌了。

When security let us out, the towers had fallen.

天空一片昏暗，还下着雪。

The sky was dark, and it was snowing.

当然，其实太阳还没落山。

Of course, the sun hadn't actually set.

那是被吹散的黑烟。

It was black smoke that blew away.

雪？

The snow?

是部分烧毁的研究笔记。

Partially incinerated research notes.

我伸出手，接住了一些Dean Witter的研究碎片。

I held my hands out and caught some pieces of Dean Witter research.

我不知道天上还掉下来什么，但心里有种不祥的感觉。

I didn't know what else was falling from the sky, but I had a sad feeling about it.

消防部门带我去了东河，在那里接受医疗检查，我踩着三英寸厚的那些人造雪艰难前行。

As the fire department led me to the East River, where I'd be checked for medical issues, I trudged through three inches of that artificial snow.

那双鞋我再也没擦过。

I never shined those shoes again.

那时候，我们家住在新泽西州的萨米特，一个被《60分钟》节目报道为当天事件中受灾最严重的城镇之一。

Back then, my family was living in Summit, New Jersey, a town that sixty minutes profiled as among the hardest hit from the day's events.

我辅导那些失去父亲的孩子。

I coach kids who lost their dads.

我的女儿们认识太多父亲再也没能回家通勤的孩子。

My daughters knew the children of too many fathers that never commuted at home.

我们不会忘记。

We won't forget.

因为离事件发生地太近，想忘都难。

The proximity to the events made it easy not to forget.

但很难想象，如果没有一个纪念日，那些对911没有亲身经历的一亿一千四百万美国人，怎么能真正理解这件事，或者了解美国人为何以及如何遭到袭击。

But it's hard to imagine how, without a day of remembrance, the 114,000,000 people who don't have any firsthand knowledge of nine eleven will ever fully get their heads around it or know anything about the how and why of Americans were attacked.

所以我觉得我们需要一个日子，让人们去了解它。

That's why I think we need a day where people can learn about it.

让全国每个人都意识到这一点。

Make everyone in the country aware of that.

鼓励人们，尤其是年轻人，来这里的博物馆看看。

Urge people, young people to come here to the museum.

那会怎么样？

What would happen?

如果没有这个联邦假日，我担心有一天这场大灾难会被遗忘。

Without that federal holiday, I fear that one day the cataclysm will be forgotten.

那一天将不再永远铭记。

The day will no longer live in infinite.

9月11日跟9月10日或12日将没什么区别。

There will be little difference between September 11 and the tenth or the twelfth.

我们得比那做得更好。

We need to be better people than that.

我喜欢说，总有一个牛市在某个地方，我保证我会为你找到它，就在《疯狂金钱》这里。

I like to say there's always a bull market somewhere, and I promise you I'll find it just for you right here on Mad Money.

我是吉姆·克莱默。

I'm Jim Cramer.

周一见。

See you Monday.

吉姆·克莱默在本播客中表达的所有观点仅代表克莱默个人意见，并不反映CNPC或其母公司及关联公司的观点，这些观点可能已由克莱默在电视、广播、互联网或其他媒体上发布过。

All opinions expressed by Jim Cramer on this podcast are solely Cramer's opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNPC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by Cramer on television, radio, internet, or another medium.

你不应将克莱默表达的任何观点视为对特定投资或特定策略的具体诱导，而应仅视作他个人意见的表达。

You should not treat any opinion expressed by Cramer as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy but only as an expression of his opinion.

克莱默的观点基于他认为可靠的信息，但CNBC及其关联公司和子公司不保证其完整性或准确性，也不应依赖这些观点。

Cramer's opinions are based upon information he considers reliable but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such.

如需查看完整的《疯狂金钱》免责声明，请访问cnbc.com/mad-moneydisclaimer。

To view the full mad money disclaimer, please visit c n b c dot com forward slash mad money disclaimer.

现在是NFL开球时间。

It's NFL kickoff time.

与体育商业专家迈克尔·奥泽尼亚一起独家解析NFL球队估值。

Exclusive NFL team valuations with sports business expert Michael Ozenia.

NFL是迄今为止最赚钱的联盟。

The NFL is by far the most profitable league.

NFL球队估值，现在就在cnbc.com/sport。

NFL team valuations now on cnbc.com/sport.