Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer - Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer 9/15/26 封面

Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer 9/15/26

Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer 9/15/26

本集简介

聆听吉姆·克雷默为您拨开华尔街投资迷雾的个人指南,把握机遇、规避陷阱,唯一目标:助您赚钱。 Mad Money 免责声明 由Simplecast(AdsWizz公司旗下)提供支持。有关我们为广告目的收集和使用个人信息的详情,请访问 pcm.adswizz.com。

双语字幕

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Speaker 0

NFL开赛时间到了。

It's NFL kickoff time.

Speaker 0

独家NFL球队估值,与体育商业专家迈克尔·奥泽尼亚一起探讨。

Exclusive NFL team valuations with sports business expert Michael Ozenia.

Speaker 0

NFL是目前最赚钱的联赛。

The NFL is by far the most profitable league.

Speaker 0

NFL球队估值,现在就在cnbc.com/sport上。

NFL team valuations now on cnbc.com/sport.

Speaker 0

我的使命

My mission

Speaker 1

很简单,就是帮你赚钱。

is simple, to make you money.

Speaker 1

我来这里是为了让所有投资者都能公平竞争。

I'm here to level the playing field for all investors.

Speaker 1

总有一个牛市在某个地方,我保证帮你找到它。

There's always a bull market somewhere, and I promise to help you find it.

Speaker 1

赚钱时间现在开始。

Man money starts now.

Speaker 1

现在。

Now.

Speaker 1

嘿。

Hey.

Speaker 1

我是克莱默。

I'm Cramer.

Speaker 1

欢迎收看《疯狂金钱》,本期节目来自Dreamforce大会现场。

Welcome to Mad Money coming to you from Dreamforce.

Speaker 1

这里是旧金山。

It's San Francisco.

Speaker 1

别人交朋友。

Other people make friends.

Speaker 1

我只想赚点钱。

I'm just trying to make a little bit of money.

Speaker 1

我的工作不只是娱乐大家,还要教点东西,所以给我打电话吧。

My job is not just to entertain, but to do some teaching, so call me.

Speaker 1

拨打180743,或者发推特给Jim Cramer。

180743 c m c tweet at Jim Cramer.

Speaker 1

又过了一天,油价飙升,债券收益率也再次上涨。

After another day where oil prices surge, bond yields, they took off again.

Speaker 1

股市当然受到重创,道琼斯指数下跌了328点。

Stocks, of course, got hammered with the Dow tumbling 328 points.

Speaker 1

标普500下跌了0.45%,纳斯达克下跌了0.78%。

S and P seeking point 45%, and the Nasdaq losing point seven to 8%.

Speaker 1

我们正在目睹一场拉锯战。

We're witnessing a tug of war.

Speaker 1

这是一场围绕人工智能的拉锯战。

It's a tug of war over AI.

Speaker 1

Anthropic和OpenAI这两家私营巨头希望人工智能发展得慢一些,但产业链上的其他公司却想继续快速推进。

Anthropic and OpenAI, the two private kingpins want a slow development of AI, but the rest of the food chain wants to keep building at a fast clip.

Speaker 1

幸运的是,这周我们在旧金山,所以我们可以把事情搞清楚。

Fortunately, we're in San Francisco this week so we can figure out things.

Speaker 1

也许妥协是必要的,不管怎样。

Maybe a compromise could be in order no matter.

Speaker 1

但是会有很多钱花在科技上。

But plenty of money will be spent on technology.

Speaker 1

那里没有放缓,尽管华尔街很多人这么认为。

No slowdown there despite what many people on Wall Street think.

Speaker 1

我来Dreamforce已经十多年了,这是有原因的。

There's a reason I've been coming to Dreamforce for more than a decade.

Speaker 1

每年有几天,这里成为宇宙的中心,把那些建设未来的人和那些花费数十亿美元来实现它的人聚集在一起。

For a few days every year, this becomes the center of the universe, bringing together the people who are building the future and the company spending billions to make it happen.

Speaker 1

数十亿美元,你想分一杯羹。

Billions that you want a piece of it.

Speaker 1

今天也不例外。

Today was no exception.

Speaker 1

今晚我们为你准备了一场特别的节目。

We got a very special show for you tonight.

Speaker 1

我自己都不敢相信。

I can't believe myself.

Speaker 1

你将听到Salesforce首席执行官马克·贝尼奥夫的讲话,他刚从Dreamforce主题演讲中出来。

You're gonna hear from Salesforce CEO Mark Benioff, fresh off the Dreamforce keynote.

Speaker 1

你还会听到OpenEye首席财务官莎拉·弗莱尔的发言。

You hear from Sarah Fryer, CFO of OpenEye.

Speaker 1

但首先,是NVIDIA首席执行官黄仁勋。

But first, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Long.

Speaker 1

怎么能不提他呢?

How can we not?

Speaker 1

来看看吧。

Take a look.

Speaker 1

黄仁勋,这真是难得的机会。

Jensen, this is a treat.

Speaker 1

没想到你会来,但我想你肯定不会错过这个机会。

Didn't even know you'd be here, but I guess you wouldn't miss it for the world.

Speaker 2

太不可思议了。

It's incredible.

Speaker 2

这里,这里就是全球销售的中心。

This this is the the world's epicenter of selling.

Speaker 2

是的。

Yes.

Speaker 2

商业。

Commerce.

Speaker 1

为什么不呢?

Why not?

Speaker 1

你知道吗?

You know?

Speaker 1

好吧,让我向你保证

Well, let me assure

Speaker 2

给世界带来机会。

opportunities for the world.

Speaker 1

在我见到你之前,我去找了信托和遗产律师,我说,你看。

I I before I saw you, I went to my trust and estates lawyer, I said, look.

Speaker 1

如果我知道我2030年就要死了,有没有什么办法能帮到我的孩子们?

If I know I'm gonna die in 2030, are there some things I can do to help my kids?

Speaker 1

你质疑过这个。

You questioned that.

Speaker 1

我们是不是都会在2030年死掉?

Are we all gonna die in 2030?

Speaker 1

也许那都不重要了。

Maybe it won't matter.

Speaker 2

我们不会在2030年死的。

We were not we're not gonna die in 2030.

Speaker 2

世界上有很多人会正确地开发AI。

There are so many people in the world who are gonna build AI properly.

Speaker 2

我们会有各种护栏,发明各种技术来保障安全和安保。

We're gonna have all kinds of guardrails, invent all kinds of technology for safety and security.

Speaker 2

这一切都在全球范围内发生。

All of that is happening around the world.

Speaker 2

不只是两家公司在做东西。

It's not just two companies building things.

Speaker 2

有成千上万的公司都在做。

There are thousands of companies building things.

Speaker 2

所以我们会创造出极其有用的人工智能。

And so we're gonna we're gonna create AI that's incredibly useful.

Speaker 2

它会非常有帮助,而且会非常安全。

It's gonna be incredibly helpful, and it'll be incredibly safe.

Speaker 2

我们可以同时拥有这一切。

We could have all of that at the same time.

Speaker 1

因为这是个工程问题,而且

Because it's an engineering problem, and

Speaker 2

安全是个工程问题。

it's Safety is an engineering problem.

Speaker 2

测试也是个工程问题。

Testing is an engineering problem.

Speaker 2

我们应该制造产品,并好好测试它们。

We should create products and properly test them.

Speaker 2

如果还没准备好发布,就先留着,继续测试,继续改进,直到准备好为止。

And if they're not ready to be released, just hold on to it and keep testing it and keep engineering until it's ready.

Speaker 1

哦,这不过是常识。

Oh, it's just a common sense.

Speaker 1

我是说,我是相信的。

I'm an I'm I'm a believer.

Speaker 1

你两年前告诉我,公司能从你这里买到东西,然后赚到他们预期的四倍。

Now you told me two years ago that companies would be able to buy something from you and make four times what they thought.

Speaker 1

那还是像往常一样保守了。

That was conservative as usual.

Speaker 1

你当时是保守了,因为他们现在正在赚钱。

You were under promising because they're making money right now.

Speaker 1

他们只是不喜欢谈论这个。

They just don't like to talk about it.

Speaker 2

嗯,真正不可思议的是,在过去的六个月里,AI变得超级有用。

Well, part that's really incredible is that in the last six months, AI became super useful.

Speaker 2

正因为超级有用,人们都在疯狂地建设这些计算系统,也就是NVIDIA的AI工厂。

And because it's super useful, people are building these compute systems, NVIDIA AI factories, like crazy.

Speaker 2

每吉瓦的NVIDIA AI工厂大约价值5.06万亿美元。

Each gigawatt of NVIDIA AI factories is about $5,060,000,000,000 dollars.

Speaker 2

好的。

Okay.

Speaker 2

不过,那一吉瓦AI工厂的租金每年大约是500亿美元。

However, the rentals of that one gigawatt AI factory is about $50,000,000,000 per year.

Speaker 2

每年。

Year.

Speaker 2

好的。

Okay.

Speaker 2

所以,是的,目前投资资本的回报周期大约是一年。

And so, yeah, the the return on invested capital is about one year right now.

Speaker 2

现在,他们能利用这一点,因为英伟达的通用性和耐用性非常出色。

Now And they get to use that because NVIDIA's fungibility and durability is so great.

Speaker 2

他们可以多年使用这些设备,远超五六年。

They get to use that for many years, well beyond five and six.

Speaker 2

因此,投资资本的回报非常惊人。

And so the return on that investment capital is incredible.

Speaker 2

这就是为什么大家都在建设这些系统。

That's why everybody's building it.

Speaker 1

你知道,这很棘手,因为所谓的封闭模型,前沿模型,显然能赚三倍的钱。

You know, it's tough because the the closed model, so to speak, Frontier, they apparently can make three times that.

Speaker 1

但与此同时,我们也需要开放和封闭模型,不是吗?

But at the same time, we need both open and close, don't we?

Speaker 2

你应该租用并使用市面上最好的模型,也就是这些闭源模型,把它们当作产品或服务来用。

You should rent and use the best models that are available as a product or service, these closed models.

Speaker 2

但是,每个国家、每家公司、每个行业也都必须构建自己的智能。

However, every single country, every single company, every single industry must also build their own intelligence.

Speaker 2

你怎么可能把智能完全外包给别人呢?

How can you outsource intelligence to somebody else completely?

Speaker 2

所以这就是为什么所有这些公司都聚集在这里。

And so that's the reason why all these companies are here.

Speaker 2

这也是为什么我们与Salesforce合作,Salesforce将使用NVIDIA Neutron和我们的智能体技术来构建他们自己的专有智能体,这些智能体将运行在Salesforce之上。

It's the reason why our partnership with Salesforce Salesforce is gonna use NVIDIA Neutron and our agent technology to build their proprietary agents that sit on top of Salesforce.

Speaker 2

此外,因为这些智能体会非常快,而且数量会非常多,Salesforce的数据处理层,它位于Salesforce内部。

In addition to that, because these agents are gonna be so fast and there are gonna be so many of them, the data processing layer of Salesforce, it sits on it's in Salesforce.

Speaker 2

它也在Databricks里。

It's in Databricks.

Speaker 2

它也在Snowflake里。

It's in Snowflake.

Speaker 2

我们加速所有这些领域的数据处理。

We accelerate data processing across all of that.

Speaker 2

所以你会看到数据处理速度飞快。

And so you're gonna have data processing at lightning speeds.

Speaker 2

会有所有这些智能体帮你做事。

You're gonna have all these agents helping you do things.

Speaker 2

而这一切都基于NVIDIA的Nemotron。

And so all of that is based on NVIDIA's Nemotron.

Speaker 2

这样一来,Salesforce也成了一家AI公司。

And so this way, Salesforce is an AI company as well.

Speaker 1

那么,这就会和之前所有的工业革命一样,在开始时都是如此。

Well, then this will be the same as all the other industrial revolutions at the beginning.

Speaker 1

大家都说,听好了。

Everyone said, listen.

Speaker 1

Room会让很多裁缝失业,对他们来说确实很难熬。

Room is gonna put a lot of seamstress out of business, and it was a tough game for them.

Speaker 1

确实。

True.

Speaker 1

但四年后,工作岗位数量是原来的十倍。

But there were 10 times the number of jobs four years later.

Speaker 2

你知道,这种说法既不幸又没必要,而且坦白说,完全不对。

You know, that storytelling is is unfortunate, unnecessary, and quite frankly, just wrong.

Speaker 2

事实是,当一家公司变得更高效,并且由人工智能驱动时,他们会变得更有雄心。

The fact of the matter is when a company becomes more productive and when they're powered by artificial intelligence, they become more ambitious.

Speaker 2

他们的雄心让他们能想象更伟大的事情,想要做更伟大的事情,这就是为什么你看看Salesforce的情况,他们原本有数据层和应用层。

Their ambition allows them to imagine greater things, wanting to do greater things, which is the reason why if you take a look at what's going on at Salesforce, they they were a data layer and an application layer.

Speaker 2

现在他们还在上面加了一个代理层。

Now they're also an agent layer on top of that.

Speaker 2

今天他们对Salesforce未来的雄心比我见过的任何时候都要大,马克一直很热情,而今天他更是充满干劲。

They're much more ambitious today about the future of Salesforce than any time I've ever seen Mark, and he's always enthusiastic And about today, he's fired up.

Speaker 2

所以,人工智能帮助他的公司提升了他们的雄心。

And so AI has helped his company elevate their ambition.

Speaker 2

因此,他们能够达到更高的成就。

And as a result, they'll be able to achieve greater heights.

Speaker 2

这不仅会发生在Salesforce,也会发生在Salesforce的所有客户身上,覆盖每一个行业。

This is gonna happen not just at Salesforce, but all of Salesforce's customers, every single industry.

Speaker 2

如果说有了软件编码代理,工程就不再需要了,这完全不合逻辑。

It is completely illogical that engineering if we had software coding agents, engineering would no longer be necessary.

Speaker 2

我成长的那个年代,工程师们没有软件可用。

I grew up in a generation where engineering engineers had no software.

Speaker 2

我们使用各种其他工具,搭建原型。

We used all kinds of other tools, and we built up prototypes.

Speaker 2

所以在软件出现之前,工程就已经存在了。

And so there was engineering before software.

Speaker 2

在人工智能之后,工程依然会存在。

There will be engineering after AR.

Speaker 1

没有这样的遮蔽。

No such eclipse.

Speaker 2

这完全说不通。

That just doesn't make sense that

Speaker 1

对。

Yes.

Speaker 1

我全程都在看一个很火的播客。

I'm watching this all in, a popular podcast.

Speaker 1

你中途接了个电话。

You got a phone call in the middle of it.

Speaker 1

有点奇怪。

It was a little strange.

Speaker 1

那是安排好的吗?

Was that planned?

Speaker 1

不是。

No.

Speaker 1

不是。

No.

Speaker 1

总统刚才正在……

The president just was

Speaker 2

我当时在台上,下台的时候,余光看到我的团队在挥舞着手机。

I was on on stage, and off stage, I saw the corner of my eyes, my team waving a phone, you know, in the air.

Speaker 2

他们走近的时候,我正想弄清楚发生了什么,然后他们说,总统先生。

And and as they they I was trying to figure out what was going on as they walked closer and said, mister president.

Speaker 2

当然,你不能接……

And and, of course, you can't you cannot pick up the

Speaker 1

电话。

phone call.

Speaker 1

聪明。

Smart.

Speaker 1

接电话是个明智的选择。

Smart idea to take it.

Speaker 2

总统打电话来,你当然得接。

When the president calls, you pick it up.

Speaker 2

所以,总之,他只是想跟我聊聊他发的一些推文。

And so, anyhow, he just wanted to talk to me about some of the tweets that he put out.

Speaker 2

我告诉他我当时正好和好朋友们在台上,然后他说,把我接进去。

And I told him I happened to be on stage with the besties, and he's he said, put me on.

Speaker 2

让我跟大家说几句。

Let me talk to everybody.

Speaker 2

好吧,然后我就把他接

Well And so I put him

Speaker 3

到了

on the

Speaker 1

发生了什么?好。

what hap okay.

Speaker 1

好吧。

Alright.

Speaker 1

还行吧。

It was alright.

Speaker 1

所以完全是没计划的。

So totally unplanned.

Speaker 1

他用了“骗局”这个词。

He used the term hoax.

Speaker 1

很多人注意到了这个说法,但那个小组的共识是,确实有些东西是编造的。

That got picked up by a lot of people, but the consensus of that panel was there are some things that are made up.

Speaker 1

你同意“编造”这个说法。

You agreed with that term made up.

Speaker 1

我们怎么才能阻止这些东西呢?

We don't we don't we how do you stop that stuff?

Speaker 2

AI安全是真实存在的。

AI safety is a real thing.

Speaker 4

好的。

Okay.

Speaker 2

设计产品让它们对世界安全可用,这也是真实存在的。

Engineering products so that they are safe for the world to use, that's a real thing.

Speaker 2

公司应该尽可能快地创新,但绝不能快到发布不安全的产品。

And companies should innovate as fast as possible, but they should never innovate so fast as to release unsafe products.

Speaker 2

这是真实存在的问题。

That is a real thing.

Speaker 2

然而,认为我们需要新的法律、新的反垄断法或新法规,才能让这些公司在发布产品前做好基础工程并正确完成,这完全是没必要的。

However, the fact that we need new laws, new antitrust laws, or new regulations so that these companies could do their fundamental engineering and do do it properly before they release products, that is just completely unnecessary.

Speaker 2

我觉得总统的意思就是,我们不需要新法律。

And I think that that's what the president is saying, that we don't need new laws.

Speaker 2

我们不需要,对。

We don't need yeah.

Speaker 2

我们不需要新的,我们已经有足够的法律了。

We don't need new we got plenty of laws.

Speaker 2

我们有大量的法规来管理产品的可靠性和功能,而且,你知道,还有很多很多

We got plenty of regulations that govern the reliability and the functionality of products, and, you know, there's lots and lots of

Speaker 1

昨天真是奇怪的一天。

Yesterday was a weird day.

Speaker 1

我是说,你的股票开盘就跌了五个半,因为大家都说OpenAI不会上市。

I mean, your stock opens down five and a half because everyone says OpenAI won't come public.

Speaker 1

所以,你就赚不到这个季度的钱,等等等等。

Therefore, you won't make your quarter blah blah blah.

Speaker 1

我们什么时候才能意识到,你以14倍的市盈率卖出,而财年28年从一月份就开始了,而且你还有那么多优势。

When do we realize that you sell at 14 times fiscal year twenty eight earnings, which starts in January, and that you've got so much going for you.

Speaker 1

世界上最好的投资是什么?

And the best investment in the world is what?

Speaker 1

英伟达。

NVIDIA.

Speaker 1

好,那我们开工吧。

Well, let's go to work.

Speaker 1

我们买五千亿吧。

Let's buy 500,000,000,000.

Speaker 2

你知道吗,吉姆,听我说。

You know, Jim, listen.

Speaker 2

这太不可思议了。

This is incredible.

Speaker 2

我们是唯一一个能运行所有闭源模型的平台。

We're the only platform that runs every closed model.

Speaker 2

每一个闭源模型都能跑。

Every single closed model.

Speaker 2

而且我们在闭源模型领域的市场份额还在增长。

And we're growing share in the closed model space.

Speaker 2

我们还是唯一一个能运行所有开源模型的平台,包括我们自己的NemoTron模型,还有NVIDIA的。

We're the only platform that runs every single open model, including NVIDIA with our own NemoTron models.

Speaker 2

不到一年,token生成的需求量就增长了25倍。

The token generation demand rate has gone up 25 times in less than a year.

Speaker 2

而开源token的生成量占比从30%涨到了将近70%。

And the amount of open tokens that are being generated has gone from 30% to almost 70%.

Speaker 2

所以现在对AI的需求,因为它真的有用,正在呈指数级增长。

And so demand for AI, because it's useful now, is just growing exponentially.

Speaker 2

这周发生的任何事情都不会减缓这个趋势。

Nothing that happened this week is going to slow that down.

Speaker 2

事实上,如果要说有什么变化的话,那就是我们以前有训练系统和推理系统。

In fact, if anything at all, what's likely to happen is we used to have training systems and inferencing systems, systems.

Speaker 2

现在我们将会有第三个系统。

We now will have another third system.

Speaker 2

这第三个系统基本上就是测试环境测试实验室。

That third system is basically testing environmental testing labs.

Speaker 2

这些测试系统会非常庞大,这样我们才能拥有功能正常、能力强、安全可靠的产品。

And so these testing systems will be extremely large so that we can have products that are functionally functional, capable, safe, and secure.

Speaker 2

这需要大规模的数据中心来进行测试。

And that requires massive data centers to test them.

Speaker 2

所以我们刚刚又创造了另一个对AI的新需求。

So we just created yet another new demand for AI.

Speaker 1

明白。

Know that.

Speaker 1

太棒了。

That's brilliant.

Speaker 1

那我们现在算力够不够?

Now how about do we have enough compute?

Speaker 1

华尔街的金融人士什么时候开始交易算力?

And when are we gonna get the financial guys in Wall Street to start trading compute?

Speaker 1

嗯,吉姆,这就是

Well, Jim, this is the

Speaker 2

过去几年里的重大突破。

the big breakthrough in the last few years.

Speaker 2

现在人们意识到,英伟达的算力是唯一既通用又耐用的系统。

People realize now that NVIDIA compute is the only system that is fungible and durable.

Speaker 2

我们之所以通用,是因为我们运行一切。

The reason why we're fungible is because we run everything.

Speaker 2

我们运行每一个模型,无论是封闭模型还是开放模型。

We run every single model, closed model, open models.

Speaker 2

我们覆盖了AI生命周期的每一个阶段,从数据处理到训练,再到后训练和推理,当然还有测试。

We run every single stage of the AI lifecycle from data processing to training to post training to inference and, of course, testing.

Speaker 2

每家公司都在用我们。

Every single company uses us.

Speaker 2

因此,这现在是世界上第一个可以作为资产支持的计算机系统。

And as a result, this is now the world's first computing system that you could use be that could be asset backed.

Speaker 2

所以金融方面,你可以用这些计算机作为抵押品,我们看到的证据越来越多。

So the finance and so you could use the computers as collateral, and we're seeing more and more evidence of that.

Speaker 2

如果是这样,这对所有无法负担这种规模资金的公司来说将是一个巨大的解放,因为资产本身将成为抵押品。

If so, this is gonna be a huge unlock for all of the companies who don't have the ability to fund this level of scale because the asset itself will be the collateral.

Speaker 1

所以这是一个我们都会记住的时刻,所有雇佣你、购买你产品的人都经历了这个拐点。

So this is a moment in time that we will all remember is when everything who everybody who hired you and bought your stuff went, had the inflection.

Speaker 1

而盈利能力就像这样,这六、七、八、九年的盈利能力将会非常惊人。

And the profitability just like this, the the life of these six, seven, eight, nine years, the profitability is gonna be extraordinary.

Speaker 1

你能帮大家解释一下吗?

Can you help explain people that?

Speaker 1

我都说腻了。

I'm tired of saying it.

Speaker 2

你知道吗,奇怪的是,很多早期租户签的都是长期租约、长期租金、长期合同。

You know, the the weird thing is is that so many of the early renters signed up for long term leases, long term rents, long term contracts.

Speaker 2

现在这些云服务商都有点后悔了,因为按需定价,租金高得离谱。

And now all of these CSPs, they kinda regret that because the spot pricing because of demand, the spot pricing, the rental fees are so incredible.

Speaker 2

现在租一台NVIDIA Grace Blackwell,每小时每个GPU要16美元。

You can now rent an NVIDIA Grace Blackwell for $16 per GPU hour.

Speaker 2

而有些人之前租出去才5美元

Now some of them were rented away at $5

Speaker 1

一年前。

a year.

Speaker 2

就在一年前。

Just a year ago.

Speaker 1

我当初真没信心。

I had no faith.

Speaker 2

所以现在这些合同一到期,大家就都在涨价。

And so now as these as these contracts roll off, everybody is just up upping their price.

Speaker 2

他们都在上调收入预期。

They're upping their revenue forecast.

Speaker 2

投资资本的回报正在显现。

The return on investment capital is coming in.

Speaker 2

他们在买更多设备。

They're buying more gear.

Speaker 2

他们想建更多基础设施。

They wanna put up more infrastructure.

Speaker 2

所以我觉得这个飞轮真的转得飞快。

And so I think this flywheel is really, really flying

Speaker 1

飞起来了。

out.

Speaker 1

好吧,我要说点别的。

Well, I'm gonna say something.

Speaker 1

你可能听说过它。

Maybe you've heard of it.

Speaker 1

英伟达,持有它。

NVIDIA, own it.

Speaker 1

不要交易它。

Don't trade it.

Speaker 2

持有它。

Own it.

Speaker 2

不要交易它。

Don't trade it.

Speaker 2

我就是这么做的。

That's what I do.

Speaker 1

非常感谢你,黄仁勋。

Thank you so much, Jensen Huang.

Speaker 1

很高兴见到你。

Great to see you.

Speaker 3

太好了

Great

Speaker 1

还有联合创始人,以及其他所有事情。

to cofounder, and everything else.

Speaker 1

各位,这就是吉姆·克莱默。

Everybody, Jim Cramer.

Speaker 1

跳舞的那个。

Dancing one.

Speaker 0

接下来,克莱默将和Dreamforce的主持人马克·贝尼奥夫坐下来聊聊。

Coming up, Cramer sitting down with the host of Dreamforce himself, Mark Benioff, next.

Speaker 0

千万别错过《疯狂金钱》的每一秒。

Don't miss a second of mad money.

Speaker 0

在X上关注吉姆·克莱默。

Follow at Jim Cramer on x.

Speaker 0

有问题吗?

Have a question?

Speaker 0

给克莱默发推文。

Tweet Cramer.

Speaker 0

标签疯狂提及。

Hashtag mad mentions.

Speaker 0

给吉姆发邮件到madmoney@CNBC.com,或者拨打180743。

Send Jim an email to madmoney@CNBC.com, or give us a call at 180743.

Speaker 0

错过了什么?

Missed something?

Speaker 0

去madmoney.cnbc.com看看。

Head to madmoney.cnbc.com.

Speaker 0

美联储处于边缘。

The fed on the edge.

Speaker 0

央行会加息还是按兵不动?这是多年来最接近的一次美联储决议,全面报道马上开始。我是威尔,嗯,

Will the central bank hike or hold full coverage of one of the closest calls in years from the Federal Reserve with be I'm Well, as

Speaker 1

你看得出来,我很兴奋,也很高兴能来到Salesforce的年度Dreamforce大会。

you're you can tell, I'm thrilled glad you're to be out here at Salesforce's annual Dreamforce conference.

Speaker 1

今天当然聚焦未来,发布了多款新产品和合作伙伴公告,都非常棒。

Today, was focused on the future, of course, with multiple new products and partnership announcements that were incredible.

Speaker 1

我们和马克·贝尼奥夫一起仔细看看。

Let's take a closer look with Marc Benioff.

Speaker 1

他是Salesforce的联合创始人、董事长兼首席执行官。

He's the cofounder, chairman, CEO of Salesforce.

Speaker 1

他是我们节目的老朋友了。

He's a longtime friend of the show.

Speaker 1

贝尼奥夫先生,再次感谢你邀请我们,欢迎回到节目。

Mister Benioff, thanks again for having us here, welcome back to Vince.

Speaker 3

吉姆,欢迎来到旧金山。

Jim, welcome to San Francisco.

Speaker 3

我们一直很喜欢你来到我们这座美丽的城市。

We always love having you here in our beautiful city.

Speaker 1

那已经是第24次了。

And that would be 24 times.

Speaker 1

这不是你参加过的最大规模的活动吗?

Isn't that as many freeing forces if you had?

Speaker 1

而且这不是一个贸易展。

And this is not a trade show.

Speaker 1

那这是什么?

What is it?

Speaker 1

我一直叫它盛会。

I've been calling extravaganza.

Speaker 3

但是,Jim,我们想赋能每一位开拓者。

But, Jim, we're trying to empower every trailblazer.

Speaker 3

我们想把所有这些了不起的人聚集在一起,你知道有成千上万的人,现场大约五万人,还有一千万人在线上。

We're trying to take all these incredible people who are here, and you know it's tens of thousands of people, about 50,000 in person, but also 10,000,000 online.

Speaker 3

我们想提升他们的技术水平。

And we're trying to elevate them in technology.

Speaker 3

几十年来我们一直在做这件事,向他们展示科技行业的现状、未来趋势,以及他们如何参与其中。

We've been doing that for decades to show them where the tech industry is now, where it's going, and how they can be a part of it.

Speaker 3

我们希望他们能加入进来,一起帮助这些公司转型。

We that's we wanna we want them to jump on board and help transform these companies.

Speaker 1

但我们一直在和像黄仁勋这样的人交流,他和你有个合作。

But we have been speaking to a parade of people like like Jensen Wong, who's got a a deal with you.

Speaker 1

我之前和你聊过关于一个

I spoke with you about a

Speaker 3

说得对。

Great point.

Speaker 1

和那个……天哪,和那个利润相关的合作。

Deal with profit with with with jeez.

Speaker 1

我得跟你说。

I gotta tell you.

Speaker 1

和达里奥那次有点让人震惊。

That one was a bit of a sharker with Dario.

Speaker 1

然后我还在看西门子的一些东西。

And then I am seeing things on Siemens.

Speaker 1

不过我要给你说个特别离谱的。

I'm gonna give you a wild one, though.

Speaker 1

我最喜欢的公司之一,我简直不敢相信它在美国火得一塌糊涂,但没火到全世界,它本来应该被关税搞垮的。

One of my absolute favorite companies that I cannot believe has taken the country by storm, but not the world, it should have been closed by tariffs.

Speaker 1

我说的是Shark Ninja。

I'm talking at Shark Ninja.

Speaker 1

我想从这儿开始,因为大家对这个牌子比较熟悉。

I wanna start there just because that's something people recognize.

Speaker 3

天哪。

Oh my gosh.

Speaker 3

Mark,Shark Ninja那个思慕雪真的超棒。

Mark at Shark Ninja, those smoothies are amazing.

Speaker 3

你知道吗,要是把果冻加进思慕雪里,味道更好。

You know, if you put the jello in the smoothie, it's even better.

Speaker 1

真的吗?

Really?

Speaker 3

我试试看。

I try.

Speaker 3

我会把配方发给你的。

I'll send you the recipe.

Speaker 3

不。

No.

Speaker 3

你得拿到这个配方。

You gotta get the recipe.

Speaker 3

但关于Shark Ninja,有件事是这样的。

But here's the thing about Shark Ninja.

Speaker 3

我们有一项很棒的新搜索技术,叫Simulate。周末的时候,Shark Ninja的CEO Mark给我发了条消息,说我们把他的那种“找不到产品”的情况——就是人们上网站找他的产品,然后说“我找不到”——从22%降到了几乎为零。

We have an amazing new search technology called Simulate and Mark, the CEO of Shark Ninja over the weekend sent me a note that we reduced his kind of no ops that is people getting on a site trying to find his product and them saying I can't find it from 22% to almost zero.

Speaker 3

这就是让我们兴奋的地方。

And that's what we get excited about.

Speaker 3

我们希望帮助每一个Shark Ninja,每一家公司,都能在技术,尤其是AI方面获得出色的体验。

We wanna help every shark ninja, every company to have a great experience with technology and especially AI.

Speaker 1

对,这正是人们无法理解的地方,因为他们买了产品,而他们让你能把价格压得更低,因为他们代表了很高的价值,而且因为你的存在,价格还会更低。

Well, that's exactly the kind of thing people can't understand because they bought the product and they that made you they can make the price even lower because they represent great value and it'll be even lower because of you.

Speaker 1

顺便说一句,我去过那边的一个墓地。

By the way, I went to a a cemetery right over there.

Speaker 1

我看到一块墓碑。

I saw a gravestone.

Speaker 1

上面写着:sasspocalypse。

It said, sasspocalypse.

Speaker 1

有写,但是没日期。

Did did but no date.

Speaker 1

你是什么时候把它干掉的?

When when did you kill it?

Speaker 1

是不是跟你的收益有关?

Was it maybe your earnings?

Speaker 3

我知道。

I know.

Speaker 3

我觉得行业里有很多人,可能是在你的行业,而不是我的行业。

I think there's a lot of people out there in the industry, maybe in your industry and not my industry.

Speaker 1

我没有行业。

I don't have an industry.

Speaker 1

有些人想要某些事情成真,比如我妻子喜欢梅斯卡尔酒。

Who wants certain things My to wife's mezcal.

Speaker 3

在金融服务行业、股市行业,有些人希望某些事情暂时成真,这样他们就能做交易。

In the financial services industry, the stock market industry, who wants certain things to be true for a little while so they can make a trade.

Speaker 3

但我觉得大家都看得出来,那个“傲慢末日”纯属胡说八道,你在Dreamforce上也能看出来。

But I think everybody can see that's aspocalypse was nonsense, and I think you can see it at Dreamforce.

Speaker 3

根本没有这回事。

There's no sense no such thing.

Speaker 3

完全是胡说八道。

It's total nonsense.

Speaker 1

你知道吗,我觉得你说得对。

You know, I think you're right.

Speaker 1

我是说,软件、硬件、硬件,但大家都这么说,我们也知道。

I mean, software, hardware, hardware, and yet everybody makes out, and we know that.

Speaker 1

从你们这个季度的表现来看,我觉得最突出的是那些能赚钱的合作伙伴关系的广度。

What we saw from your quarter, I I thought, was the breadth of the partnerships that are making money.

Speaker 1

很多公司都会建立合作伙伴关系。

A lot of companies, they come up with partnerships.

Speaker 1

甚至有些我们俩都知道很好的公司,但这些合作并不重要。

And even some ones you and I both know are very good, but they're not meaningful.

Speaker 1

但我认为你们的合作伙伴关系特别之处在于,别人会模仿,而且能让像迈克尔·戴尔、联邦快递这样的人受益。

But I think your partnerships uniquely are copied by others and make people like Michael Dell, Federal Federal Express.

Speaker 1

我一年前跟你聊过之后,又去查了这些合作,他们现在还在赚钱。

I checked on these a year after that I talked with you, and they are still you know, they're making money.

Speaker 3

我们最大的快乐就是客户能成功,以及我们与客户之间的信任。

That's our greatest joy is for our customers to be successful and also that the way of the trust with them.

Speaker 3

你知道,没有什么比我们与客户、与我们的开拓者之间的信任更重要了。

You know, nothing is more important than the trust we have with our customers, with our trailblazers.

Speaker 3

你说得对。

But you're right.

Speaker 3

我们想确保这项技术真的能帮大家赚到钱。

We want to make sure that this technology is actually making money for people.

Speaker 3

而且你看,现在行业里也有很多新的定价模式。

And look, there's a lot of new pricing models also in the industry.

Speaker 3

比如按用户数定价。

Like one is a user pricing.

Speaker 3

还有按指定代理定价、按使用量定价、按消费量定价,还有他们说的按结果定价。

One is the named agent pricing, the usage pricing, the consumption pricing, what they call outcome pricing.

Speaker 3

所以,如果交易完成了,我们甚至还在尝试一种新模式,就是我们愿意先介入。

So if a transaction completes, but we're even trying a new model, which is we're willing to kind of come in.

Speaker 3

我们免费帮你搭建系统,然后从你的业务成果中抽成。

We'll build the system for nothing, and we'll take a percentage of your business outcome.

Speaker 3

真的吗?

Really?

Speaker 3

所以如果我们赚到钱了

So if we make the money

Speaker 1

你从来不会这么做的。

You never do that.

Speaker 3

不会。

No.

Speaker 3

千万别这么说。听着。

Never do Listen.

Speaker 1

大家都会听到的。

People are gonna be listening.

Speaker 1

那又怎么样?

So what?

Speaker 1

如果你有10个员工,开始做得不错,他们可能会带来25个。

If you have say 10 employees and you start doing well, they bring maybe 25.

Speaker 1

你帮助他们,然后你给他们,他们会……

And you help them and and you give them they'll

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Speaker 3

对,可以。

take Yes.

Speaker 3

我们会从利润、收入或者我们帮你节省的金额中抽取一定比例。

We'll take a percentage of the profit or the revenue or the the amount that we save you.

Speaker 1

因为我已经

Because I've

Speaker 3

有了一个商业成果。

got a business out business outcome.

Speaker 1

在我之前的经历中,每次用你,我的业绩都提升了30%。

I've had a 30% lift every time I used you in my previous life.

Speaker 1

所以大家应该认真听,他们会意识到自己的数字也能提升30%。

So people should be listening and they realize that their numbers can go up 30%.

Speaker 3

我们现在在定价上必须比以往更灵活。

We have to be more flexible now in our pricing than ever.

Speaker 3

所以我刚才提到的那些定价模式的范围,对客户来说非常重要。

And so that span of pricing models that I just went through is very important for customers.

Speaker 3

因为在AI领域,客户希望我们所有人都能多承担一些风险,我们也愿意这么做。

Because in AI, customers want all of us to have a little more skin in the game, and we're willing to do that.

Speaker 1

好的。

Okay.

Speaker 1

我们也有一些大客户。

So we also have some big customers.

Speaker 1

地球上最大的公司是Salesforce。

The largest company on Earth is Salesforce.

Speaker 1

不过,Jensen可不是来走个过场的。

Now he Jensen didn't come for show.

Speaker 1

他带来了一个产品,叫KOA。

He's got a product, a KOA.

Speaker 1

我应该用那个吗?

Should I be using that one?

Speaker 1

那是什么?

What's that?

Speaker 3

KOA其实是我们在Nemotron上构建的一个Salesforce模型。

KOA is actually a Salesforce model that we have built on Nemotron.

Speaker 3

Nemotron是他开发的开源模型。

Nemotron is the open source model that he's built.

Speaker 3

现在我们可以对它进行调优,并提供给我们的客户。

Can now tune it and offer it to our customers.

Speaker 3

我们一直都有向客户提供模型。

We've always offered models to our customers.

Speaker 3

你可能知道我们有一支很棒的研究团队。

You probably know we have a fantastic research team.

Speaker 3

我们在Salesforce一直在做提示工程。

We've been we've been built prompt engineering itself here at Salesforce.

Speaker 3

但我们也打算开始向客户提供模型。

But we're gonna start offering models too for our customers.

Speaker 3

是的,我们会提供一个我们称之为Koa的Nemotron模型。

And, yeah, we'll offer a Nemotron model that we call Koa.

Speaker 3

我记得你认识Koa吧,我们的首席实验室官?

I like Do remember Koa, our chief lab officer?

Speaker 3

不认识。

No.

Speaker 3

我觉得你见过他。

I think you met him.

Speaker 1

可能吧。

I probably did.

Speaker 1

是我的错。

My bad.

Speaker 1

好吧。

Okay.

Speaker 1

所以我刚才在翻看一些历史记录,看看你花260亿收购Slack时都说了些什么。

So I was looking at, going over some history, looking over, what was said when you paid 26, billion for Slack.

Speaker 1

我看到,你知道,有些人觉得你会毁掉你的公司,但另一些人说它马上就被毁了。

I saw I you know, there were some people who just thought that you would destroy your company, but others who said it was destroyed immediately.

Speaker 1

这和SaaS有点像,但不是完全一样。

It's not similar a little similar to SaaS.

Speaker 1

那260亿美元,你收购Slack的时候值吗?

The 26,000,000,000, did it pay off when you bought Slack?

Speaker 3

Jim,Slack是软件史上最成功的一次收购。

The greatest acquisition in the history of software, Jim, is Slack.

Speaker 3

我们收购这家公司的时候就这么说过,我们知道我们会大赚一笔。

And we said that when we bought the company, we knew we would trade once.

Speaker 3

我们付了该付的价钱。

And we we paid, you know, what we paid.

Speaker 3

但六年过去了,现在它成了我们增长最快的产品。

But here we are six years later, it's the fastest growing product we have.

Speaker 3

上个季度,它的预订量实现了三位数增长。

It had triple digit growth last quarter in bookings.

Speaker 3

Jim,Slack里正在发生的创新简直令人难以置信。

But the innovation happening in Slack, Jim, is incredible.

Speaker 3

你提到了英伟达。

You mentioned NVIDIA.

Speaker 3

你知道他们是谁的大客户吗?

Do know what they're a big customer of?

Speaker 1

Slack。

Slack.

Speaker 3

所以你在话题里提到了。

So you mentioned in the topic.

Speaker 3

你知道他们用什么来运营公司吗?

You know what they run their company on?

Speaker 1

Slack。

Slack.

Speaker 1

OpenAI。

OpenAI.

Speaker 3

所以就是OpenAI和Slack。

So OpenAI, Slack.

Speaker 3

Slack。

Slack.

Speaker 3

所以,如果公司还没用过Slack,你可以用这个超棒的Slack CRM,直接在Slack里跑Salesforce。

So if companies haven't looked at Slack, you have this incredible Slack CRM you can run Salesforce from.

Speaker 3

我们有Slack机器人,你可以用它来运行你的AI。

We have Slack bot you can run your AI from.

Speaker 3

我们甚至还有Slack Force,这是一个基于Anthropic在Slack里构建的新用户界面,这样你就可以把整个公司的前端都放在Slack上。

We even have Slack force, which is a new user interface built in Slack using Anthropic, so you can front end your whole company.

Speaker 3

但Slack真的很棒。

But Slack is amazing.

Speaker 3

而且我们甚至可以在Slack里写代码。

And we can even code from Slack.

Speaker 3

所以,你可以在Slack里和所有的编程代理一起,在一个多人在线、多频道的环境里写代码。

So you can have a multiplayer, multichannel environment in Slack coding with all your coding agents.

Speaker 3

太棒了。

Amazing.

Speaker 1

嗯,你看,我们也在用这个。

Well, look, I I I we use it too.

Speaker 1

我是说,大家都在用,这已经是一种普遍的变化了。

I mean, uses it, and it's just a universal change.

Speaker 1

因为另一个产品也不怎么样。

Because the other product isn't that good too.

Speaker 1

这个我们都知道。

We know that.

Speaker 1

但我们没必要去说那个产品——

But we don't have to tell with

Speaker 3

顺便说一句,那个产品也不怎么样。

that product too, by the way.

Speaker 3

当然。

Of course.

Speaker 1

那挺好的。

Good for them.

Speaker 1

挺好的,给他们扔个箱子过去。

Good for the nice throw them a box.

Speaker 3

或者直接说他们不是那样。

Or direct with what they're not.

Speaker 1

所以,总之,当你的股票跌到九倍市盈率的时候,那是个挺有意思的时机,因为那差不多是……我也不太清楚。

So, anyway, when your stock got down to nine times earnings, it was a curious time because that's kind of where it was a I I don't know.

Speaker 1

我们

We

Speaker 3

那时候买了一些。

bought some at that point.

Speaker 1

嗯,是的,你买了大概多少?

Well, yeah, you bought about what?

Speaker 1

250亿

25,000,000,000

Speaker 3

美元。

billion dollars.

Speaker 1

你知道吗?

You know?

Speaker 1

而且你知道别人是怎么跟我说的吗?

And you know what was said to me by people?

Speaker 1

你最好离他远点,因为他刚把资产负债表搞砸了。

You better get away from that because he just wrecked the balance sheet.

Speaker 1

我说,我觉得他大概在Anthropic投了250亿美元。

I said, I think he has probably 25,000,000,000 in anthropic.

Speaker 3

我想我至少投了那么多。

I think I did at least.

Speaker 1

所以现在市盈率还是只有15倍。

So it's still only at 15 times.

Speaker 1

现在我记得那真是

Now I remember That was

Speaker 3

挺神奇的事。

kind of amazing thing.

Speaker 3

我当时心里想的是,哇,这股价也太低了。

Well, what I saw to myself was, wow, the stock is so low.

Speaker 3

我们会投入250亿美元到Salesforce。

We'll come in by 25,000,000,000 of Salesforce.

Speaker 3

我们知道我们不会长期持有Anthropic的股份。

We know we're gonna have to we're not gonna hold the anthropic for long.

Speaker 3

我们不是,你知道,那不是我们的主业。

We're not you know, that's not our business.

Speaker 3

所以当我们投资这些公司时,我们有着非常好的风险投资记录。

So when we invest in these companies, we have this very good venture capital record company.

Speaker 1

Salesforce Ventures位列前十。

In Salesforce Ventures is among the top 10

Speaker 3

比业内其他人都做得好。

better than anyone else in industry.

Speaker 3

但这次对Anthropic的投资对我们来说会是一个巨大的成功。

But this anthropic will be a huge win for us.

Speaker 3

这比直接取消债务要好得多。

Well, that's a great way than just to cancel the debt.

Speaker 1

这是个非常聪明的想法。

That's a very smart that's a very smart idea.

Speaker 1

我经常想,我记得市盈率28、29倍的日子,因为你们发展得太快了。

I often think that it fit that I remember the days of 28, 29 times earnings because of your of of how fast you're going.

Speaker 1

下半年还有加速增长。

There was a second half acceleration.

Speaker 1

这种增长能持续下去吗?

Is that is that me able to continue?

Speaker 3

嗯,我的意思是,我们会有这样的增长。

Well, I mean, we're gonna have it.

Speaker 3

如你所见,我们今年表现非常好,令人难以置信。

We're having a good incredible year as you saw.

Speaker 1

我知道你们是的。

I know you are.

Speaker 3

我们刚刚上调了业绩指引。

We just raised our guidance.

Speaker 3

我记得是3亿或4亿美元。

I think it was 3 or $400,000,000.

Speaker 3

其实,我们一直受到外汇汇率的巨大不利影响。

I mean, we've had an enormous headwind from foreign exchange.

Speaker 3

大概3亿多美元吧。

Like 300 something million dollars.

Speaker 3

但今年又会是精彩的一年。

But this is going to be another amazing year.

Speaker 3

而且我们只会用两年时间停留在四十多岁的阶段。

And we're only going to spend two years in the forties.

Speaker 3

你现在能看出来了吧?

You can see that now, right?

Speaker 3

当然能。

Absolutely.

Speaker 3

明年我们就要谈五十多亿了。

Next year, we're gonna be talking about the fifties.

Speaker 1

没错。

Absolutely.

Speaker 3

所以我们在三十多亿上花了三年。

So we spent three years in the thirties.

Speaker 1

在分析师会议上,2030年的目标定得很好。

Twenty thirty goals good at the at the at the analyst meeting.

Speaker 1

你重申了2030年的目标。

You reaffirmed the twenty thirty goal.

Speaker 3

你看,我们在三十多亿上花了三年。

Well, you saw we spent three years in the thirties.

Speaker 3

然后我们会在四十多亿上花两年,现在马上就要进入五十多亿了。

And we're gonna spend two years in the forties, and now we're gonna go right into the fifties.

Speaker 1

好的,没问题。

Well, okay.

Speaker 1

所以,你知道,大家对AI有点悲观了。

So, you know, people got a little negative about AI.

Speaker 3

哦,顺便说一句,没有哪家企业软件公司能以这个速度增长。

Oh, by the way, no enterprise software has grown at that speed.

Speaker 3

甲骨文也不行?

Not Oracle?

Speaker 3

那真是太厉害了。

That's amazing.

Speaker 3

SAP也不行?

Not SAP?

Speaker 3

应用软件公司。

Applications company.

Speaker 3

太厉害了。

Amazing.

Speaker 1

你看。

Look.

Speaker 1

从增长速度来看,我们比SAP还要大。

On pacing, the the frontier We're larger than SAP.

Speaker 1

你看。

Look.

Speaker 1

达里奥在他的帖子里说了X。

Dario says x on his.

Speaker 1

贝尼奥夫到底说了什么,让我们该害怕什么?

What what what is Benioff saying x about about what we should be scared of?

Speaker 3

我觉得,吉姆,我们看到的头号问题就是社交媒体,这个话题我们大概聊了八年了。

I think that, you know, the number one thing that we've seen, Jim, and we've talked about this exhaustively for maybe eight years is social media.

Speaker 3

但我们俩都很失望,因为社交媒体公司没有真正照顾好自己。

But we were both so disappointed with how the social media companies were not really taking care of themselves.

Speaker 3

很多孩子受到了伤害。

A lot of kids got hurt.

Speaker 3

我们都看到了。

We saw that.

Speaker 3

现在大家都明白了,对吧?

It's now well understood, isn't it?

Speaker 1

是的,明白了。

Yes, it is.

Speaker 3

很多公司都受到了伤害。

A lot of companies got hurt.

Speaker 3

很多人也因为社交媒体受到了伤害。

A lot of individuals got hurt through social media.

Speaker 3

我们不希望AI也这样,对吧?

We don't want that to happen in AI, do we?

Speaker 1

对,不希望。

No, we don't.

Speaker 3

我们希望AI能处理好这些事情,承担责任,采取行动,并且合乎道德。

We want AI to take care of these things and be held responsible and take care of these actions and be ethical.

Speaker 3

而道德的核心就是责任。

And the heart of ethics is responsibility.

Speaker 3

你知道,Salesforce 这家公司被道德领域视为世界上最道德的公司之一,甚至是最道德的公司,已经连续十四年了。

You know, Salesforce is a company that's been regarded by ethosphere as one of the most or the most ethical company in the world for fourteen years.

Speaker 3

这对我们来说非常重要。

That's very important to us.

Speaker 3

但我们真的把目光投向我们在旧金山和世界各地的同行,想说,我们希望你们在行动上、在照顾社区和世界的方式上都能做到道德,因为这项技术非常强大。

But we really look at a light on our brethren here in San Francisco and all over the world and say, we want you to be ethical in your actions and how you take care of your communities and the world because this technology is very powerful.

Speaker 1

嗯,我觉得你得继续推动下去。

Well, I think I I think you've gotta keep pushing.

Speaker 1

其实不用我告诉你该怎么做,因为你从来没有忘记这一点。

Well, I don't have to tell you to do it because other you you never lose sight of it.

Speaker 1

而且我知道人们应该明白,当你追随一家公司时,有马克的公司,然后才是其他所有人。

And I know that people should understand when you follow a company, there's Mark's company and then everybody else.

Speaker 1

是的,没错。

And why yes.

Speaker 1

我的意思是,我一开始总是说,这不是关于朋友的问题。

I mean, I always say at the beginning, it's not it's not about friends.

Speaker 1

这是关于钱的问题。

It's about money.

Speaker 1

但也不是。

But no.

Speaker 1

对有些人来说,是朋友。

With some people, it's friends.

Speaker 1

我觉得我之所以这么看重你,是因为你带我参与了儿童慈善事业。

And I think the reason why I think so much of you is because how you got me involved in in children's charities.

Speaker 1

你建了

Well, you've built

Speaker 3

一个游乐场,在我们旧金山的新儿童医院。

a playground at our new children's hospital here in San Francisco.

Speaker 3

没人知道你在各地做了那么多了不起的事。

Nobody knows that amazing what you've done all over

Speaker 1

全世界。

the world.

Speaker 3

你不说这些。

You don't talk about

Speaker 1

你自己做这些不是为了那个。

your own don't do it for that.

Speaker 1

我做这些不是因为那意味着你在炫耀自己。

I don't do it because that means it's it's you're doing it for to show yourself.

Speaker 1

照顾孩子们。

Taking care of the children.

Speaker 1

非常感激,

Tremendous gratitude that

Speaker 3

你——嘿,我们没把重点放在孩子的教育和医疗上。

you've Hey, we're done not focused on our kids education and health care.

Speaker 3

我们关注的是什么?

What are we focused on?

Speaker 1

好吧,希望那些负责AI的人能像你说的那样做。

Well, let's hope that AI, the people in charge of AI are doing what you say.

Speaker 1

也许我们能赚很多钱,同时为家庭、医院和孩子们带来改变。

Maybe we could make a tremendous amount of money and make a difference for families, make a difference for hospitals, make a difference for children.

Speaker 1

是人吗?

Is it people?

Speaker 1

有能力吗?

Is it capable?

Speaker 1

我们能不能

Can we

Speaker 3

做到呢?

do that?

Speaker 3

今天又给旧金山和奥克兰的公立学校捐了1800万美元,加上印第安纳波利斯和纽约,总共2400万,这些地方我们都有很大的社区。

Another $18,000,000 today to our local San Francisco and Oakland public schools, 24,000,000 including Indianapolis and New York where we have huge communities.

Speaker 3

我们现在已经给当地的公立学校捐了超过1.5亿美元,光给旧金山的学校、医院和公园就捐了3亿美元。

We've given now more than $150,000,000 to our local public schools, 300,000,000 just to our local San Francisco schools, hospitals and parks.

Speaker 3

我们觉得商业是推动变革的最大平台,我们必须回馈社会。

We feel that business is the greatest platform for change, that we have to give back.

Speaker 3

而且,你知道,我们已经捐出了超过十亿美元的赠款。

And, you know, we've done more than a billion dollars in grants.

Speaker 3

你知道,我们已经完成了1100万小时的志愿服务。

You know, we've done eleven million hours of volunteerism.

Speaker 3

你知道,我们还免费为65000个非营利组织和NGO提供我们的服务。

You know, also that we run 65,000 nonprofits and NGOs for free on our service.

Speaker 3

吉姆,这就是商业的意义所在。

Jim, this is what business is all about.

Speaker 1

嗯,看,通常那是

Well, look, usually That's

Speaker 3

让我们真正感到快乐的东西。

what makes us really happy.

Speaker 1

把它提出来。

Bring it up.

Speaker 1

也许是因为我正看着那边的贾马尔,你知道我很喜欢他。

And maybe it's because I'm actually looking at Jamal right there, who you know I love.

Speaker 1

但我之前

But I had

Speaker 3

我87岁的老母亲就坐在这里。

My 87 year old mother is sitting right here.

Speaker 1

比以往任何时候都更,但我必须这么做。

Than ever, but I had to do it.

Speaker 1

这是你的大日子。

It's your big day.

Speaker 1

这是你的大日子。

It's your big day.

Speaker 3

不知怎么的,这是比利·简·金。

It's Billie Jean King for some reason.

Speaker 1

哦,天哪。

Oh, shit.

Speaker 3

你知道,他们看起来很像,那是她的替身。

You know, they look so we're that's her doppelganger too.

Speaker 1

我知道。

I know.

Speaker 1

总之,你看。

Anyway, look.

Speaker 3

很高兴你能来,吉姆。

Great to have you a dream for

Speaker 1

谢谢你们邀请我们。

us, Jim.

Speaker 1

谢谢你们邀请我们。

Thank you for inviting us.

Speaker 3

非常好的合作伙伴关系,我们也很高兴CNBC和各位都能来。

Great, great, great partnership, and we're thrilled to have CNBC here and everybody.

Speaker 1

谢谢。

Thank you.

Speaker 1

谢谢。

Thank you.

Speaker 1

Salesforce的首席执行官马克·贝尼奥夫,从24号开始上任。

Mark Benioff, CEO of Salesforce coming from the twenty fourth.

Speaker 1

很高兴见到你。

It's great to see you.

Speaker 1

钱又回来了,休息一下。

Man money's back in a break.

Speaker 0

在人工智能的关键时刻,接下来克莱默将向OpenAI的首席财务官提出重大问题。

Coming up at a pivotal moment for artificial intelligence, Cramer's asking the big questions when OpenAI's CFO joins him next.

Speaker 0

明天,以《华尔街抢跑》开启交易日。

Tomorrow, kick off the trading day with squawk on the street.

Speaker 0

在纽约证券交易所9号展台现场直播。

Live from post nine at the NYSE.

Speaker 1

我不是说这是好事,吉姆。

I'm not saying it's a good thing, Jim.

Speaker 1

我只是说,经济放缓似乎不太可能发生。

I'm just saying it seems unlikely that the slowdown is coming.

Speaker 1

哎呀。

Uh-oh.

Speaker 1

是的。

Yes.

Speaker 1

好的。

Alright.

Speaker 2

就像我们昨天说的,大卫,开源不会领先的。

As we said yesterday, David, open source ain't gonna pace.

Speaker 2

这就是重点。

That's that's the line.

Speaker 1

现在开始争论吧。

Now fight.

Speaker 1

我的意思是,大卫,如果你想用三岁小孩的态度,那随你便。

I mean, David, if you wanna adopt the attitude of a three year old, go ahead.

Speaker 0

一切从东部时间早上9点开始。

It all starts at 9AM eastern.

Speaker 0

现在是NFL开球时间。

It's NFL kickoff time.

Speaker 0

独家NFL球队估值,体育商业专家迈克尔·奥泽尼亚为您解读。

Exclusive NFL team valuations with sports business expert Michael Ozenia.

Speaker 0

NFL是迄今为止最赚钱的联赛。

The NFL is by far the most profitable league.

Speaker 0

NFL球队估值,现在就在cnbc.com/sport。

NFL team valuations now on cnbc.com/sport.

Speaker 1

本周末,两大前沿人工智能实验室OpenAI和Anthropic都支持放慢最强大AI模型开发速度的呼吁,以便安全协议能跟上。

This weekend, the two leading frontier artificial intelligence labs, OpenAI and Anthropic, both back calls to slow down the pace of development for the most powerful AI models so that safety protocols can catch up.

Speaker 1

我们知道OpenAI,就是ChatGPT背后的公司,是行业里的重量级选手,希望明年某个时候上市。

We know OpenAI, the company behind ChatGPT, is a heavy hitter in this industry, wants to come public at some point next year.

Speaker 1

但OpenAI在大型数据中心建设上已经花费了巨额资金。

But OpenAI has been spending fortunes on the great data center build out.

Speaker 1

前沿AI开发的刻意放缓,嗯,也许能帮他们省钱。

A deliberate slowdown in frontier AI development, well, maybe it could save them money.

Speaker 1

这会拖累大型数据中心建设吗?

Could it hurt the great data center build out?

Speaker 1

那这背后到底是怎么回事?

So what's really going on here?

Speaker 1

今天早些时候,我们有幸采访了OpenAI的首席财务官莎拉·弗莱尔,来一探究竟。

Earlier today, we had a chance to speak with Sarah Fryer, the chief financial officer of OpenAI to find out.

Speaker 1

一起来看看。

Take a look.

Speaker 1

莎拉,我在这里已经很久了。

Sarah, I've been here for a long time.

Speaker 1

你能来真是太好了。

It's great that you're here.

Speaker 1

而且,顺便说一句,在百忙之中你还能坦然面对采访,这真的很棒。

And it's terrific, by the way, that in the middle of things, you're not afraid to talk.

Speaker 4

我从来不怕说话,尤其是在你面前,吉姆。

Never afraid to talk, not to you, Jim.

Speaker 1

不。

No.

Speaker 1

嗯,谢谢你的夸奖。

Well, I appreciate that.

Speaker 1

那我直接问你了。

So then I'm gonna ask you directly.

Speaker 1

你怕不怕四年后,有恶意行为者操纵AI代理,导致大规模杀伤性武器失控,让你死掉?

Are you scared of dying in four years from a rogue actor manipulating agents to misaligned weapons of mass destruction?

Speaker 4

不怕。

No.

Speaker 4

我真的不怕。

I'm not.

Speaker 4

不过,我们确实需要认真对待安全问题。

However, we do need to take safety seriously.

Speaker 4

而且

And

Speaker 3

如果

if

Speaker 4

这意味着我们必须放慢前沿发展的步伐,绝对要这样做。

it means we have to pace the frontier and slow down, absolutely.

Speaker 4

我们会听取研究人员的意见,然后照做。

We're gonna listen to our researchers and do that.

Speaker 4

但作为首席财务官,我需要围绕这一点做出商业决策。

But as the CFO, I need to then make business decisions around it.

Speaker 4

但说实话,我认为我们在OpenAI做得很好。

But, no, I think that we are doing what we do well at OpenAI.

Speaker 4

我们在控制前沿发展的速度,并且非常认真地对待安全和对齐问题。

We're pacing that frontier and taking that safety and alignment really seriously.

Speaker 1

你刚才提到了首席财务官。

Now you did mention a CFO.

Speaker 1

你得想办法解决资源问题。

You have to figure out the resources.

Speaker 1

而且我还知道,这应该是你老板的决定,对吧?

You also I know I think it's your boss's call that boss.

Speaker 1

他说现在做IPO不明智,我理解这一点。

He says it's ill advised to do an IPO now, I understand that.

Speaker 1

这并不意外。

Not a shock.

Speaker 1

但你会削减哪些方面的开支呢?

But what would you cut back on?

Speaker 1

如果你想放慢节奏,你会在哪些方面少花钱?

What would you spend less on if you wanted to pace things?

Speaker 4

那我们来谈谈放慢节奏这件事吧。实际上,让我兴奋的是,即使我们今天停止,世界上可用的智能量也是巨大的。

So let's talk about that pacing because, actually, what I'm excited about is even if we stop today, the amount of intelligence that's available in the world is massive.

Speaker 4

所以,Astra,如你所知,现在是前沿的、最智能、最对齐的模型。

So Astra, as you know, is now the frontier, most intelligent, most aligned model.

Speaker 1

而且也是卖得最快的?

And also the fastest selling?

Speaker 1

让我问你一个问题。

Let me ask you.

Speaker 1

我们能到100美元吗?

We can go to a $100?

Speaker 4

当然,这是我们见过的销售最快的产品!

And the fastest selling that we have seen certainly Of in our anything!

Speaker 4

那这意味着什么呢?

And so what does that mean?

Speaker 4

这意味着像波士顿儿童医院这样的机构现在可以获得智能。

It means there's intelligence available for folks like Boston Children's Hospital.

Speaker 4

那里有40种未确诊、未解决的疾病现在被临床医生诊断出来了。

40 undiagnosed unresolved diseases now diagnosed with clinicians there.

Speaker 4

如果你是一个患有这种疾病的孩子的父母,这真是改变人生的事情。

If you're a parent of a child with a disease like that, that is life changing.

Speaker 4

如果你在投资行业,Bali Yasmin资产管理公司有一位央行分析师,可以快速整合像我们亲爱的朋友Kevin Walsh这样的人的所有输入,把两个小时的综合分析缩短到几分钟。

If you're in the investment business, Bali Yasmin Asset Management has a central banker analyst that can quickly take all the inputs from folks like our dear friend, Kevin Walsh, and go from a two hour synthesis down to minutes.

Speaker 4

所以这些事情在各地人们的生活中产生了影响,这就是我们今天所拥有的。

So these things make a difference in people's lives all over, and that's what's available to us today.

Speaker 4

所以回到你的问题,当然,如果我们必须安排节奏,我们总是会根据强劲的投资回报率来做投资决策。

So back to your question, absolutely, if we have to pace things, we will always make investment decisions based on a strong ROI.

Speaker 4

但就我目前来看,推动增长的机会太多了,所以我仍然非常专注于获取更多的计算能力来保持这个飞轮运转。

But from where I sit today, there is so much opportunity to drive growth that I'm still highly focused on getting more compute to keep that flywheel.

Speaker 1

这正是我想知道的,是减少计算还是增加计算,因为可能没有……我需要你去布里格姆妇女医院。

That's what I wanted to know whether it was less compute or more compute because I there may not be I need you to go to Brigham and Women's.

Speaker 1

我需要你去丹娜-法伯癌症研究所。

I need you go to Dana Farber.

Speaker 1

我们希望所有这些地方都能拥有Astra。

We want all these places to have Astra.

Speaker 4

是的。

Yes.

Speaker 4

当然。

Absolutely.

Speaker 4

所以在算力方面,记住,当我们有更多算力时,我们就能构建最好的模型。

So on the compute front, remember that when we have more compute, we can build the best models.

Speaker 4

而“最好”并不总是意味着最聪明。

And the best doesn't always mean need to be the most most intelligent.

Speaker 4

比如,当你拥有Frontier模型时,它实际上能够训练我所说的子模型,也就是mini和nano。

Like, when you have the Frontier model, it's able to actually train what I think of as the child models, right, the mini and the nano.

Speaker 4

所以我们看到Sol训练了Luna,这是最便宜的模型。

So what we saw with Sol, it trained Luna, which is the cheapest model.

Speaker 4

我们把价格降低了80%,需求增长了10倍。

We dropped the pricing there 80%, and we took demand up 10x.

Speaker 4

它现在是Open Router上排名第一的模型。

It's the number one model on Open Router right now.

Speaker 4

这是为什么呢?

And why is that?

Speaker 4

因为客户真正想要的是在合适的任务上以合适的价格获得合适的智能,而这就是我们通过提供一系列位于帕累托前沿的模型所做到的。

It's because what customers really want is the right intelligence for the right task at the right price, and that's what we're giving them by having a whole series of models on that Pareto frontier.

Speaker 4

所以当我在考虑投资算力的时候,关键是怎么用这些投资去打造那些前沿模型,做出最好的产品,然后产生现金流。

And so when I think about investing in compute, it's how do I invest in compute to create those frontier models, to create the best products, to create the cash flow

Speaker 4

这些现金流又能让我继续投入算力,做出最好的模型。

That help me spend on compute create the best models.

Speaker 1

嗯,你提到了现金流。

Well, you mentioned cash flow.

Speaker 1

我是说,我得想想,假如我是博通,我给你100亿美元,那么每吉瓦的投入,理论上你能用这100亿赚到300亿吗?

I mean, I have to think if I gave you let's say, I were a Broadcom, and I gave you $10,000,000,000, is it possible that up per gigawatt, is it possible that you could make 30,000,000,000 with the 10,000,000,000 theoretically?

Speaker 1

理论上,是的。

Theoretically, yes.

Speaker 1

确实可以。

It is.

Speaker 4

我是说,如果你看看今天模型的产出,我们核心业务的毛利率——记住,我们的收入来源非常多元化。

I mean, when you absolutely look at the output of models today, the gross margin on our core businesses so remember, we're a very diversified revenue stream.

Speaker 4

我们有消费者业务,然后延伸到小企业,一直到全球最大的企业和政府。

We have a consumer business, and then we trend into small businesses all the way up to the biggest businesses and governments around the world.

Speaker 4

这些业务的毛利率其实非常高。

Those businesses are actually very good gross margins.

Speaker 4

每吉瓦的回报率也很高。

The return on those gigawatts is high.

Speaker 4

同时,我们也会平衡我们的使命,那就是让通用人工智能惠及全人类,而不仅仅是那些付费的人。

We also balance that with our mission, which is AGI for the benefit of all of humanity, not just people who pay.

Speaker 4

所以,我们大约90%的用户都是免费使用ChatGPT的。

And so we have about 90% of our consumers get ChatGPT for free.

Speaker 4

他们可以免费获得这种智能服务。

They get access to that intelligence for free.

Speaker 4

所以现在我们开始建立广告模式,比如。

So now we're starting to build an ad model, for example.

Speaker 4

我们的广告业务在七个月内就达到了十亿美元,这是有史以来增长最快的广告平台,也是我们增长最快的产品。

So our ad business just hit a billion dollars in seven months, the fastest growing ad platform ever, the fastest growing product for us.

Speaker 4

这就是我们持续提升利润率的一个好例子,因为现在我们正在把高利润的附加服务整合到整个商业模式中。

And that's a good example of where we continue to improve the margins because now we're bringing high margin add ons into that overall business model.

Speaker 1

好的。

Okay.

Speaker 1

现在,我们回到这个问题,我想可以称之为“拥抱脸”问题。

Now, let let's go back to this issue, which I guess is we can call the hugging face issue.

Speaker 1

我可以

I can

Speaker 3

称之为

call it

Speaker 1

“开放拥抱”问题。

the open a hugging issue.

Speaker 4

对,是的。

But Yep.

Speaker 1

你知道,总统昨天说,AI接管世界的恐惧是个骗局。

You know, president said yesterday, fears from AI taking over the world are a hoax.

Speaker 1

这就是主流媒体抓住的点。

That's what the mainstream media picked up.

Speaker 1

但与此同时,在他召集的那场活动上,黄仁勋说那些末日论调都是编出来的。

But at the same time, at at the actual event that he called in all in, Jensen Huang said the doom stories are made up.

Speaker 1

整个小组似乎都觉得,萨姆和达里奥单独说那些话,背后肯定有什么不可告人的目的。

The whole panel seemed to think that there must be some sort of ulterior motive by what Sam might be saying alone with Dario is an ulterior motive.

Speaker 1

你看到了吗?

Do you see it?

Speaker 1

你会反驳吗?

Would you shoot it down?

Speaker 4

首先,我是个技术乐观主义者。

So I would say first of all, I'm a tech optimist.

Speaker 4

所以我不是那种悲观派。

So I'm not a doomer.

Speaker 4

我之前已经谈过这些技术的一些应用方式。

So I already talked about just some of the ways these technologies get used.

Speaker 4

但我觉得,围绕安全达成共识,并以合适的节奏推进前沿技术,也很重要。

But I think it's also important to align around safety and take it at the right pace for the frontier.

Speaker 4

你提到了那个Hugging Face的事件。

You mentioned the hugging face incident.

Speaker 4

我现在在网络安全方面可是全力以赴。

I am absolutely on a mission right now on cyber.

Speaker 4

我们正处在一个关键时刻。

We have a moment.

Speaker 4

我们称之为‘防御者时刻’。

We're calling it the defender moment.

Speaker 1

好的。

Okay.

Speaker 4

这些模型,Astra在网络基准测试中得了100分,这个基准实际上意味着它能在一系列源代码中找出几乎所有的漏洞。

These models, Astra scored a 100% on the cyber bench, which is effectively the benchmark that says it can find just about every vulnerability in alliance of source code.

Speaker 4

那这到底意味着什么呢?

So what does that actually mean?

Speaker 4

所以如果你经营一家公司,这意味着你可以用我们的模型,把它指向你所有的软件。

So if you're running a company, it means you take our model and you point it at all of your software.

Speaker 4

它会发现所有这些漏洞。

It's gonna find all of these vulnerabilities.

Speaker 1

就是之前Hugging Face事件里提到的那些,包括沙箱和那个投票板,它们都聚在一起的那些,它都能发现吗?

All that you all that were mentioned in the Hugging Face incident, including the the sandbox and and the polling board that they all congregated, it's gonna spot them?

Speaker 1

这是用George Curse做的吗?

And was this done with George Curse?

Speaker 4

是的,它会发现那些漏洞。

It's going to find those vulnerabilities.

Speaker 1

好的。

Okay.

Speaker 4

然后你需要以机器速度打补丁,因为你没有奢侈到可以列一个清单,以后再去修复所有需要修复的东西。

And then you need to patch at machine speed because you don't have the luxury of keeping a list of all the things that need to be fixed at some point.

Speaker 4

它会和Codex一起,那是我们的编码

It's going to with Codex, which is our coding

Speaker 3

工具,你

tool, you

Speaker 4

你可以用机器的速度做到这一点,突然之间,你就有了一个非常积极的软件生命周期,你编写的代码希望更安全、质量更好、经过测试,但当出现问题时,你能快速发现并修补它。

can do that at the speed of a machine and suddenly you have this very positive software life cycle going on where you're building code that hopefully is safer, better quality tested, but when there are issues, you're finding it fast and you're patching it.

Speaker 4

现在的情况是,防御者今天就需要使用这些工具。

What's happening is the defenders need access to those tools today.

Speaker 4

Hugging Face 事件应该是一个绝对的警钟。

Hugging face should be an absolute clarion cry.

Speaker 4

这个说法怎么样?

How's that for a phrase?

Speaker 1

完全同意。

Absolutely.

Speaker 1

我开始,我不知道我是否读过这篇文章,因为它有点难懂,但是

I started I don't know if I read this thing because it was a little dense, but

Speaker 4

我的职业生涯开始于

I started my career.

Speaker 4

如你所知,写关于安全的股票研究,实际上网络安全是在病毒刚开始在世界上出现的时候。

As you know, writing equity research around security, actually cyber was when viruses first started coming about the world.

Speaker 4

不是。

No.

Speaker 1

你不行。

You're no good.

Speaker 1

你那时候才12岁。

You were like 12.

Speaker 1

我觉得

I think

Speaker 4

我觉得我们正处在那个时刻。

I think we're at that moment in time.

Speaker 4

所以这就是为什么我想把这个信息传递出去。

And so this is why I wanna get that message out.

Speaker 4

像你这样的人正在传播这个信息。

People like you are getting that message out.

Speaker 4

所以我认为网络安全是一件非常重要的事情。

And so I think cyber is an incredibly big deal.

Speaker 4

所以我才不会说我们不需要担心安全和对齐问题,但我觉得我们需要用正确的方式去做,保持一种适度、务实的态度。

And that's why I wouldn't call it, you know, that we don't need to be worried about safety and alignment, but I think we need to do it the right way to be kind of moderate and pragmatic about it.

Speaker 4

保持乐观,就像Jensen那样。

Keep the optimism, which Jensen has

Speaker 1

好的。

Okay.

Speaker 4

但同时也要务实,认识到这里确实存在真正的风险。

But also be pragmatic about the fact there are real risks here.

Speaker 1

你能训练那些不良的、不对齐的智能体,让它们放弃未经授权的通信,不再互相采纳目标吗?

Can you train the bad the misaligned agents to give up unauthorized communications, adopting goals from one another?

Speaker 1

你能关闭它们互相找到对方的留言板吗?

Can you take down the message boards where they found each other?

Speaker 1

你能让它们不那么像一群蜂群吗?

Can you make them less of a swarm?

Speaker 1

如果必要的话,你能摧毁整个智能体生态系统吗?

Can you destroy the agent ecosystem if

Speaker 4

它们不一致了?

they're misaligned?

Speaker 4

你需要对齐。

You need alignment.

Speaker 4

而这正是我们在做的。

And that's what we're doing.

Speaker 4

随着我们推出这些越来越智能的模型,

As we roll out these ever more intelligent models

Speaker 4

我们也在研究如何为它们建立安全、对齐和防护措施。

We're also working on how do we create safety and alignment and guardrails around them.

Speaker 4

这样它们就能按照我们和人类监督者的意图行事。

So that they are doing what we what the human in the loop want them to do.

Speaker 1

这能做到吗?

And it can be done?

Speaker 1

绝对可以做到。

It absolutely can be of that.

Speaker 1

你知道,那个拥抱脸事件,以及你描述的前路,对某些人来说就是世界末日。

You know that the hugging face incident and the road ahead as you describe it is to some doomsday.

Speaker 1

我,你知道,再说一次,我不想忽视积极的一面。

I, you know, again, I don't want to lose sight of the positives.

Speaker 1

你看,

Look,

Speaker 4

这周我在德克萨斯州参加了一个女性创业的小企业活动,她们正在创办和发展自己的企业。

was in Texas this week at a small business event for women starting running, growing their own businesses.

Speaker 4

我和一位女士聊了聊医疗荒漠的问题。

And I spent time with one woman talking about health deserts.

Speaker 4

她说的意思是,她是一位合格的医生。

And what she means by that, so she's a qualified doctor.

Speaker 4

她最初在阿拉斯加,后来搬到了西德克萨斯。

She started in Alaska, moved to West Texas.

Speaker 4

她看到的是,如果你生活在医疗荒漠中,你的预期寿命比那些能积极获得医疗保健的人要低30%。

What she sees is that if you live in a health desert, your life expectancy is 30% less than someone who's got active access to health care.

Speaker 4

那么她用我们的技术做什么呢?

So what's she doing with our technology?

Speaker 4

第一,她利用了每周有三百三十万人向ChatGPT咨询健康问题这一事实。

Number one, she's utilizing the fact that three thirty million people every week ask ChatGPT a question about their health.

Speaker 4

我们现在有一个临床医生工具,所以我们让医生能够快速使用人工智能。

We have a clinician tool now, so we're enabling doctors to quickly use AI.

Speaker 4

然后我们与像HCA、波士顿儿童医院、斯坦福儿童医院这样的医院系统合作,把这一切整合起来。

Then we work with hospital systems like HCA, Boston Children's, Stanford Children's to be able to put that all together.

Speaker 4

她作为企业家介入,说,我要建立一个企业,把医疗保健和远程医疗服务带到像西得克萨斯这样的地方。

She steps in as an entrepreneur and says, I am going to build a business that's going to bring health care, tele doctoring to places like West Texas.

Speaker 4

这就是我在技术发展方向和良好成果方面所关注的。

That's what I'm focused on in terms of where are we going with technology and great outcomes.

Speaker 4

技术总是有风险的。

There have always been risks to technology.

Speaker 4

我们应该认真对待这些风险,但不应让它们阻止我们正在取得的进步。

We should take them seriously, but we shouldn't allow to stop the progress that we're making.

Speaker 1

现在,我听到这些,我对自己说,那些认为工作岗位会被抢走的人,不明白这其实是西德克萨斯就业机会的创造者,这些岗位原本不会存在,是更多的工作,而不是更少。

Now, I just I hear that I say to myself those who think that there will be jobs taken away don't understand that is a creator of West Texas jobs that would not be there more jobs not fewer.

Speaker 4

而且,这就是我们目前所看到的。

And I mean, that's what we've seen so far.

Speaker 4

当你从整体经济角度看待人工智能的影响时。

When you look at the impact of AI on the economy at large.

Speaker 4

我们的经济研究团队在这方面做得非常出色。

Our our economic research team has done a great job on this.

Speaker 4

我们看到的是,人们实际上开始让他们的工作变得更有趣、更广泛。

What we see is that people are actually starting to make their jobs more interesting and broader.

Speaker 4

所以,不仅仅是工作本身,比如你看一个人的职位,像财务人员。

So it's not just the work that, you know, if you look at someone's title, like a finance person.

Speaker 1

好的。

Okay.

Speaker 4

如果你看所有来自财务职位的人向ChatGPT提出的请求,只有大约四分之一是关于财务的。

If you look at all of the calls into ChatGPT from people whose title is finance, only about a quarter of what they ask ChatGPT is finance.

Speaker 4

你知道剩下的部分是什么吗?

You know what the rest is?

Speaker 4

另外四分之一是工程。

Another quarter is engineering.

Speaker 4

我的税务团队正在学习编程,这样他们就不用等IT人员来帮忙,而是自己动手做。

My tax team is learning how to program so that instead of waiting for an IT person to come along and help them, they're doing it themselves.

Speaker 4

所以他们更快、更高效、更出色。

So they're faster, quicker, better.

Speaker 4

以前做不了的工作。

The work that couldn't be done before.

Speaker 1

然后他们就能

Then they could

Speaker 4

雇佣更多的人。

hire more people.

Speaker 4

有趣的是,他们花了25%的时间来问营销相关的问题。

Interestingly spending 25% of their time asking marketing questions.

Speaker 4

所以我不太确定那边的情况,但我总是跟我的财务团队说,不管你有没有意识到,我们其实都在做销售。

So I'm I'm less sure what's going on there, but I do as I always say to my finance team, we're all in sales whether you know it or not.

Speaker 4

你可能不是对外销售,但你必须对内销售你的观点,把你的想法推销给你的内部客户。

You might not be selling to an external customer, but you've gotta go sell your point of view to your customer internally.

Speaker 4

所以如果他们用一些营销技巧来让别人听到自己的声音、脱颖而出,那只有好处。

And so if they're using some marketing techniques to be heard, punch through, that's only good.

Speaker 4

因为这样你就不再只是企业的历史记录者,而是真正在推动企业向前发展。

Because you go from being a historian of the business to actually moving the business forward.

Speaker 1

说得真好。

Positive note.

Speaker 1

现在是个好时机,我们暂停一下。

This is a good moment to, pause.

Speaker 1

稍后回来,继续更多内容。

We'll be right back with more.

Speaker 1

谢谢。

Thank you.

Speaker 0

别走开。

Stick around.

Speaker 0

接下来,我们还将继续播出克莱默与OpenAI首席财务官莎拉·弗莱尔的精彩对话。

We'll have more of Cramer's critical conversation with OpenAI CFO, Sarah Fryer, next.

Speaker 1

休息之前,大家已经看到了我们与OpenAI首席财务官莎拉·弗莱尔讨论的第一部分,她所在的OpenAI正是人工智能领域诸多问题的核心。

Before the break, you saw the first part of our discussion with Sarah Fryer, the CFO of OpenAI, which is at the heart of so many issues facing the artificial intelligence complex.

Speaker 1

但我们还有很多话题要聊。

But we have much more ground to cover.

Speaker 1

以下是那次对话的其余部分。

Here's the rest of that conversation.

Speaker 1

好的。

Alright.

Speaker 1

那么,我们来谈谈暂停可能带来的影响。

So let let's talk about the possibility of the impact of a pause.

Speaker 1

我觉得你之前说得对,这确实已经被证明是那样的情况。

I think you've correctly talked about how it is something that has proven to be like that.

Speaker 1

但这种没完没了的鼓噪,说我们可能会落后于中国,让我想起1959年到63年那会儿,我们担心会落后于俄罗斯,结果证明那是个错误的担忧。

But this endless, drumbeat that we could fall behind China reminds me of when we were might have fallen behind Russia in 1959 to '63, and it turned out to be a false construct.

Speaker 1

关于中国,到底是什么让他们可能领先?也许是开放模型?

What is it about China that could make it so that maybe it's open models?

Speaker 1

我不知道。

I don't know.

Speaker 1

是他们控制了我们,还是说我们的国防会受到威胁?

That they own us or somehow our defense would be compromised.

Speaker 1

你相信这些吗?

And do you believe it?

Speaker 4

我绝对相信我们现在处于一个竞争非常激烈的环境中。

I absolutely believe that we're in a very competitive landscape right now.

Speaker 4

确实,客户会来谈开源、开放权重,而且很多这样的模型是中国的。但让我们谈谈他们这么说的时候,到底在说什么。

And absolutely, customers come and talk about open source, open weights, and many of those models are Chinese But let's talk about what they're saying when they say that.

Speaker 4

第一是成本。

Number one is cost.

Speaker 4

所以,我们有责任继续降低成本。

And so it's incumbent on us to keep driving down cost.

Speaker 4

我们通过我之前提到的前沿模型来实现这一点。

So we do that with things like I already talked about, frontier models

Speaker 4

训练小型模型。

Training mini models.

Speaker 4

我们自己的芯片,能以更便宜的价格进行推理。

It's our own chip, being able to inference at a much cheaper price.

Speaker 4

事实上,我们现在就能更便宜,如果你买Luna,比在Cloudflare上使用像GLM 3.5这样的中国模型还要便宜。

The fact that we can be cheaper today, if you buy Luna, it's cheaper than taking a Chinese model like GLM 3.5 on Cloudflare.

Speaker 4

所以第一点,我们需要处于帕累托曲线上,让客户能以合适的成本完成合适的任务。

So number one is we need to be on the Pareto curve, the customer can get the right cost for the right task.

Speaker 4

第二点,他们希望有能力更深入地定制,比如去掉一些护栏,但他们想调整模型的翼尖,拥有更多的自主权。

Number two, they want an ability to effectively go deeper, often, like take off some of the less guardrails, but they wanna tweak the the wing tips of the model and have more of their own say on it.

Speaker 4

所以,我们需要找到与客户合作的方式,这就是事情开始变得有趣的地方。

So again, we need to find ways to work with customers, so that's where starts to get interesting.

Speaker 4

如今,我们在芯片设计等领域已经深入垂直化,因为我们必须为自己做这些。

Today, we've gone vertical in areas like chip design because we had to do it for ourselves.

Speaker 4

现在我们与客户合作开展这些工作。

Now we work with customers on it.

Speaker 4

医疗保健方面,有GPT Rosalind。

Health care with GPT Rosalind.

Speaker 4

第三点是数据主权。

The third thing is data sovereignty.

Speaker 4

自从技术诞生以来,这一直是个问题。

This has always been a thing since technology started.

Speaker 4

我的数据在哪里?

Where is my data?

Speaker 4

安全吗?

Is it safe?

Speaker 1

你继续说

You keep

Speaker 4

我的知识产权安全吗?

Is my intellectual property safe?

Speaker 4

我不知道中国模型在这方面是否对你有帮助,但我确实知道我们需要倾听客户的声音,尤其是美国以外的客户。

I don't know if Chinese models are helping you on that front either, but I do know that we need to hear customers, particularly outside The US.

Speaker 4

我今晚就要飞往英国,人们担心如果无法访问那个模型或数据会怎样。

I'm about to fly to The UK tonight, or people worry about what happens if I can't access that model or that data.

Speaker 4

我觉得在这方面还有工作要做。

And I think there's work to be done on that front.

Speaker 1

好的。

Okay.

Speaker 1

现在,当我读你的论文时,它们真的很棒。

Now when I read look, your papers are incredible.

Speaker 1

你发表了很多了不起的东西。

You put out amazing things.

Speaker 1

它们也是用英文写的,人们可以读到第一个结果。

They're done in English too, and people can read the jalapeno first result.

Speaker 1

我读Hugging Face的时候就在想,天哪。

And I was thinking when I read the Hugging Face since I said, oh my god.

Speaker 1

中国的那个帽子,就是蓝图。

The Chinese hat, it's the blueprint.

Speaker 1

对于那些不重视网络安全的人来说,这就是蓝图。

It's the blueprint for the people who don't take the cybersecurity.

Speaker 1

他们能不能派出一群机器人去攻击那些不搞网络安全的人,入侵进去然后把公司关停?

Can't they can't they send swarms to whoever doesn't do the cybersecurity, get in and shut the company down?

Speaker 1

如果是公用事业,如果是化工厂,他们能不能做到?

If it's a a utility, if it's a chemical plant, can't they do it?

Speaker 4

这就要说到为什么我们认为防御者的时间窗口正在关闭,坦白说,我们真的只有有限的时间来加固基础设施。

I mean, this goes back to why we think the defender window is closing and why there is a limit of time, frankly, to really harden our infrastructure.

Speaker 4

三周前在OpenAI,我们让Astra自我攻击,我觉得我们学到的第一点是,对客户要有极大的同理心。

At OpenAI three weeks ago, we took Astra, pointed it at ourselves, and I think what we learned is number one, massive empathy for our customers.

Speaker 4

第二点,我们把25%的工程师从生产任务中抽出来,告诉他们,你们现在的任务就是跟着模型跑,发现漏洞就修复。

Number two, we took 25% of all of our engineers off of, you know, production level tasks and said, your job now is to run alongside the model and fix as it finds.

Speaker 4

第三,我们现在已经开发了一些工具,可以走出去帮助客户防范像智能体蜂群这样的威胁。

Number three, we've built some tooling now that we can go out in the world and help customers protect themselves from things like an agentic swarm.

Speaker 4

最后,我们还创建了Playbooks。

And then finally, we created Playbooks.

Speaker 4

顺便说一句,我们不会单打独斗。

And by the way, we're not gonna go by ourselves.

Speaker 4

我喜欢这句话。

I love that phrase.

Speaker 4

如果你想走得快,就一个人走。

If you wanna go fast, go alone.

Speaker 4

如果你想走得远,就一起走。

If you wanna go far, go together.

Speaker 4

我们正在与整个网络安全领域合作。

We are working with the whole cyber landscape.

Speaker 4

我们发布了那封信。

We put out the letter.

Speaker 4

超过一百家公司都加入了,我们觉得作为更大的网络安全社区来做这件事真的很重要。

Over a 100 other companies signed on, and we think it's really important we do this as a larger cyber community.

Speaker 1

当我们都害怕原子武器造成大规模毁灭的时候,我们确实成立了一个国际机构来尝试监管这些东西。

When we were all afraid of mass destruction from from atomic weapons, we did come up with an international agency for to try to regulate these things.

Speaker 1

我们需要一个国际机构吗?

Do we need an international agency?

Speaker 1

顺便说一句,那并不坏。

And by the way, that wasn't bad.

Speaker 1

没人觉得那会阻止我们制造氢弹,如果我们想造的话。

No one thought that stopped the pace of h bombs if we wanted to build them.

Speaker 1

但我们真的需要它吗?

But do we need it?

Speaker 1

对于你们做的事情,需要它吗?

Do we need it for what you do?

Speaker 4

我们现在已经有一些很好的机构了。

So we have some very good agencies today.

Speaker 4

比如说,英国的AISC就是一个。

Would say the UK AISC is one.

Speaker 4

而且我觉得,即使在美国这里,Cassie也是两个非常擅长在模型发布前进行审查的机构之一。

And I think even here Cassie here in The United States are two groups that are very good at looking at models before they launch.

Speaker 4

而且你知道,在Anthropic那个所谓的“神话时刻”之后,我觉得那挺好的,因为它向全世界发出了一个信号,说:嘿,我们都需要关注这个问题。

And as you know, post the kind of mythos moment from Anthropic, which I felt like was good in that it kind of created a blast out in the world that said, hey, we all need to pay attention.

Speaker 4

但它提出的控制方法之一是把问题关在盒子里,不让人们看到和使用。

But it suggested that one way to control the issue was to keep it in a box and not let people to use to see it and use it.

Speaker 4

我们是OpenAI,因为我们的方法更加开放。

We are OpenAI because we are more open in our approach.

Speaker 4

我们认为,安全与保障来自于更广泛的全球共享,这样就有更多的眼睛在盯着。

We think security and safety comes from a broader sharing in the world so that more eyes are on things.

Speaker 4

我觉得这样能得到更好的结果。

I think you get a better result.

Speaker 4

但再次强调,我们正在寻求像UKIC、Cassie这样的机构的帮助,以便我们能够以可信赖的方式做好这件事。

But again, we are looking to agencies like UKIC, to Cassie and so on, to be able to help us do that well and in a trusted way.

Speaker 4

我们要确保把大家带进来,让他们相信这个结果是世界想要的。

We need to make sure that we bring folks along so that they trust that the outcome is something that the world wants.

Speaker 1

咱们来谈谈钱吧。

Let let's talk money.

Speaker 1

我看了一下你们真正在做的事情。

I look at what you're really doing.

Speaker 1

想想当我们谈到不上市的想法时,很多人会说,天哪。

Think when we talk about the idea of no IPO, many people said, oh my god.

Speaker 1

这对博通来说会很糟糕。

It's gonna be horrible for Broadcom.

Speaker 1

但实际上,我觉得恰恰相反。

They can't be actually, I think it's quite the opposite.

Speaker 1

我觉得你们赚了那么多钱,如果你们上市了,我会关注那个年度经常性收入。

I think you guys are making so much money that it's kind of if you were public, I would be looking at that annual recurring revenue.

Speaker 1

我说,那肯定是一两个,对比Anthropic。

I say, that's gotta be one or two versus the anthropic.

Speaker 1

一旦你把这事搞起来,你比任何超大规模云服务商都赚钱得多。

You're so much more lucrative than any of the hyperscalers once you get this thing going.

Speaker 1

你们是不是选对了做模型,而他们选错了做管道?

Did you guys pick pick the right side in doing the models and they did the wrong side doing the pipes?

Speaker 4

所以,我当然喜欢我们的位置。

So, I certainly like our position.

Speaker 4

而且我觉得我们能建立一个非常强大、持久的业务。

And I think we can build a really strong durable business.

Speaker 4

我觉得,朋友们,我们建立的,我可以说我们大概有……

The I feel friends, we're built I would say we probably have.

Speaker 4

其实,谢谢你。

Actually, thank you.

Speaker 4

关于IPO,你知道,你得按自己的节奏来,IPO就是如此。

On the IPO front, like, you gotta run your own game, as you know, an IPO.

Speaker 4

我跟你上过很多次节目,都说过IPO只是旅程中的一个里程碑。

I've been on many a show with you where I've said an IPO is just a milestone in the journey.

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