本集简介
双语字幕
仅展示文本字幕，不包含中文音频；想边听边看，请使用 Bayt 播客 App。
你之所以会反复收听某些播客，是有原因的。
There's a reason you return to certain podcasts.
不是因为每一集都石破天惊，而是因为质量一直很稳定。
Not because every episode is groundbreaking, but because the quality is consistent.
同样的开场，同样的声音，同样的水准。
The same intro, the same voice, the same standard.
这种熟悉感并不无聊，反而让人觉得可靠。
That familiarity isn't boring, it's dependable.
一个交易平台也可以给人这种感觉，即使市场动荡，它的结构依然稳固。
A trading platform can feel like that, steady in its structure even when markets aren't.
Capital.com，无论市场状况如何，都保持清晰透明。差价合约涉及高风险，81.31%的零售投资者会亏损。
Capital.com Clarity regardless of market conditions CFDs involve a high level of risk Eighty one point three one percent of retail investors lose money.
一切都是为了钱。
It's all about the money.
我想成为那个人
I wanna be the person
成为家里创造世代财富的那个人。
in my family that creates generational wealth.
他们怎么赚钱、怎么花钱、怎么实现梦想。
How they earn it, spend it, and make dreams come true.
我不想粉饰什么。
I'm not gonna sugarcoat it.
确实很难，但非常值得。
It's hard, but it's so worth it.
《千禧一代的金钱》，每周六全新播出，东部时间三点，CNBC。
Millennial Money, all new Saturdays, three eastern, CNBC.
我的
My
使命很简单，就是帮你赚钱。
mission is simple, to make you money.
我来这里是为了让所有投资者都能公平竞争。
I'm here to level the playing field for all investors.
总有一个牛市在某个地方，我保证帮你找到它。
There's always a bull market somewhere, and I promise to help you find it.
《坏钱》现在开始。
Bad money starts now.
嘿。
Hey.
我是克莱默。
I'm Cramer.
欢迎收看《坏钱》。
Welcome to Bad Money.
欢迎来到克莱默。
Welcome to Cramer.
人们交朋友。
People make friends.
我只是想帮你在这里多赚点钱。
I'm just trying to make make you a little extra money here.
我的工作不只是娱乐大家，更是要教你点东西。
My job is not just to entertain, but to teach you.
所以打电话给我，号码是180743，或者在推特上@jim cramer。
So call me at 180743 or tweet me at jim cramer.
终于有个平静的一周了，虽然没涨，但我也知足了。
At last, a quiet week, even if we didn't gain any ground, I'll take it.
有人说这简直是浪费打车钱和五件干净的衬衫。
Some called it a waste of cab fare and five clean shirts.
我喜欢这句话。
I love that line.
我完全同意。
I couldn't agree more.
而波动收盘时，道指最终下跌95点，标普上涨0.17%，纳斯达克上涨0.39%。
And the volatile closeout with the Dow ultimately dipping 95 points, the speed advancing point 17%, and the Nasdaq rising point three nine.
让我们觉得还不错。
Left us thinking good.
一年中最难熬的月份只剩下十二天了。
Only twelve more days of the hardest month of the year.
不过话说回来，下周可能还是老样子。
Then again, next week may be more of the same.
只有几个重要的覆盖值得关注。
Only a few big coverage important.
有一个极其重要，而且我认为是积极的分析师会议，我稍后会详细讲。
There's one incredibly important and I think positive analyst meeting that I'm gonna cover in a moment.
我吗？
Me?
我趁着这段平静期，今天去中城老通用汽车大楼地下的苹果店，看了激动人心的新手机发布。
I used the tranquility as an opportunity to go see the exciting new phone launch at the Apple store in the basement of the old GM building today, Midtown.
iPhone 18让我眼前一亮，主要是因为它解决了我最头疼的问题——电池续航衰减。
And I was wowed by the iPhone 18, mostly because the bane of my existence, dimming battery life.
你猜怎么着？这款新手机一次充电能用大约36个小时，才需要再充。
Get this, this new phone gets something like thirty six hours per charge before it runs out of juice.
照片拍得真是绝了。
The pictures are incredible.
至少在我看来，它们看起来是专业级别的。
To me, at least, they look like the professional grade.
但我还是得用ChatGPT查一下那个老看到的傻词“光圈”，因为它就像“错位”那种词一样，让人摸不着头脑。
But I had to chat GPT of of that stupid word aperture that I see all the time because it's one of those terms like misalignment.
其实它并不是那个意思。
It wasn't really mean.
如果我是摄影师，如果我是个发烧友，我肯定会对这款手机垂涎欲滴。
If I were a photographer, if I was an aficionado, I'd be dying for this phone.
说实话，我买它就是为了电池续航，因为我受够了那种手机快没电的恐惧，尤其是在老鹰队得分的时候，我可不想没法在X上炫耀老鹰队的战绩。
I I I bought bought it for the battery life admittedly because I'm tired of live living in fear that my phone's about to die just when the eagle score touched down, and I can't boast e a g l e s on x.
我就喜欢这些小确幸。
I live for small things.
我在店里的时候，正好碰到苹果CEO约翰·特纳斯和CFO凯文·帕罗特，就顺便感受了一下现场的气氛。
While I was at the store, I pulled up with Apple CEO John Turners and CFO Kevin Parrott to take the temperature of the event.
他们既自信又兴奋，但这次基本上是双重发布，先是这款手机，然后一个月后Duo上市，那是一款大型折叠手机。
They were confident and excited, but what 's basically a double launch, first this phone, and then a month from now, the Duo comes out, and that's the big foldable phone.
那太厉害了。
That's huge.
我觉得18是金属的，但Duo是革命性的，对你们所有正在观看的人来说，它可能会变得不可或缺。
I think the 18 is your metal, but the Duo is revolutionary, and it could become indispensable for all of you who are watching.
我昨天玩了一下Duo。
I got to play with the duo yesterday.
有点让人惊叹。
Was kind of astounding.
我的意思是，首先，它虽然是可折叠的，但没有折痕。
I mean, first, it may be foldable, but there's no crease.
真的，一点都没有。
I mean, none.
我的意思是，你根本看不出来。
I mean, you can't tell.
你根本看不出来它是一体的。
You can't tell it's in one part.
这很重要，因为我觉得如果它看起来像是两块拼起来的，就不会那么优雅了，Elliot，那肯定会让人分心。
That matters because I think if you're looking like it was two pieces, it would not be as graceful, Elliot, it would certainly be distracting.
屏幕，太漂亮了。
The screen, gorgeous.
分辨率比我见过的任何东西都要好。
The resolution better than anything I've ever seen.
哦，还有那些不喜欢Kindle、喜欢翻页的人，它有一个像书页一样的屏幕，让你可以像翻精装书一样翻页。
Oh, and those of us who don't like our Kindles because we like turning pages, it's got a page like screen that lets you do it like a hardback.
太令人印象深刻了。
It's so impressive.
我告诉Parekh和Turnis，我打算把Duo当作第二部手机来买。
I told both Parekh and Turnis that I intend to buy the duo as a second phone.
没错。
That's right.
两部手机。
Two phones.
因为我无法想象在我工作或旅行时它会关机。
Because I can't imagine it ever being off when I'm working or when I'm traveling.
我不想为了接电话而切换设备。
I don't want to hop off to take a phone call.
事实上，当我们在飞机上有了星链，我敢打赌，你一定能在这个展开后变成迷你电视的口袋屏幕上完美地观看任何内容。
In fact, when we get Starlink on an airplane, I say, I bet you'll be able to watch anything perfectly on this pocket screen that unfolds into a very exciting mini television.
我错过了太多超级碗、太多比赛、太多七人制橄榄球赛，而这个设备可能标志着Wi-Fi霸权的终结。
I have missed so many Super Bowls, so many games, sevens, that this device may be the end of the tyranny of Wi Fi.
这很奇怪。
It was odd.
当我提到要买第二部手机时，两人似乎一点也不惊讶。
When I mentioned buying a second phone, neither man seemed surprised at all.
可能是因为据说这款双屏手机的评价是苹果历史上最好的之一。
Probably because the reviews for the duo are said to be among the best in Apple's history.
当然，他们没法保证有货。
Of course, they couldn't assure availability.
所以我记下了，得在10月16号预购这款双屏手机。
So I duly noted that I should preorder the duo on October 16.
我不想等到10月23号上市那天，因为谁知道到时候有没有货。
I don't wanna wait until October 23, the availability date, because who knows if they even have availability at the time.
不过，这算是高端问题吧。
High quality problem, though.
我知道价格不便宜，但我有一部17 Pro Max，而且我算过，有机会卖掉。
I know the cost is high, but I have a 17 pro max and I have a chance to sell when I priced it out.
可能能卖800美元。
It might go for $800.
那还不错。
That's not so bad.
如果我转到T-Mobile，那是我倾向的运营商，还能拿到更优惠的价格。
If I switch to t mobile, which is my orientation, I can get an even better deal.
听到那些华尔街分析师说苹果新手机因为DRAM半导体价格上涨而太贵，真是让我抓狂。
It drives me crazy when you hear all these Wall Street analysts talking about how Apple's new phones are too expensive because of rising DRAM semiconductor prices.
确实。
Sure.
如果你全价买，那当然贵，但谁会全价买呢？
They're too expensive if you're paying full price bozo, but who pays full price?
做点功课吧。
Do some work.
这些手机本来就被运营商大力补贴，反正都是同质化产品。
These things are heavily subsidized by the wireless carriers because they're all commodities anyway.
特纳CEO延续了苹果的传统，让产品自己说话，我觉得这个主意挺不错的。
CEO Turner's is continuing the Apple tradition of having the product speak for themselves, which I think is pretty good idea.
毕竟，翻开牌的时候，你不需要解释为什么K比Q大。
I mean, after all, when you turn the cards over, you don't have to explain that a king beats a queen.
而且，参加这些活动的时候，我就像个进了糖果店或者好时工厂，甚至M&M豆袋子里的孩子一样兴奋。
I mean, plus I'm a kid in a candy store or Hershey plant or even an M and M bag when I go to these events.
对于我们这些整天离不开苹果设备的人来说，最有趣的事情莫过于和苹果高管Greg Joswiat讨论新设计，我们都叫他Jos。
For those of us who live twenty four seven on our Apple device, there's nothing more fun than discussing the new designs with Apple exec Greg Joswiat, whom we all know as Jos.
我经常和他聊天。
I always talk to him.
他总是在那里。
He's always there.
他非常棒。
He's fantastic.
他有很多好点子。
He's got so many great ideas.
我跟他聊Wonderman每股收益，这是我常开的玩笑。
I talk to him about Wonderman per share, and that's my evergreen joke.
他总是会笑。
He always laughs.
这些产品和性别。
These products and gender.
不过，我觉得我从没见过乔斯对哪款苹果产品像对Duo这么兴奋。
I don't think I've ever seen Jaws more excited about an Apple product than the Duo, though.
我不怪他。
I don't blame him.
自从初代iPhone发布以来，我还没对哪次苹果发布会这么激动过。
I haven't been this excited about an Apple launch since maybe the original iPhone reveal.
这就是我对苹果想说的。
And that's what I have to say about Apple.
现在，我们来看看下周的安排。
Now let's take a look at the game plan for next week.
就像我之前说的，接下来没什么大事。
Like I mentioned before, there's not much on the horizon.
看起来挺无聊的，但我们准备了不少内容。
It looks boring, but we got an action pack.
你听过那种说法吧，日程排得满满当当的。
You ever hear like they say, it's a jam packed day.
就像大多数节目开始十二分钟左右，就是日程排得满满的一天。
Like, right around, like, twelve minutes into most shows, it's jam packed day.
我不这么说，因为有时候确实很满，有时候又不是。
I don't say that because sometimes it's jam packed and sometimes it isn't.
我们先从最重要的说起。
Let's start with the most consequential.
周三，我们有一位Okta的分析师。
On Wednesday, we have an Okta analyst.
对吧？
Okay?
就是这个。
This is it.
在过去一周硅谷的所有CEO中，Okta的Todd McKinnon可能是最让人受启发的，他说话温和，其实挺讨人喜欢的。
Of all the CEOs I had on the show this past week in Silicon Valley, Okta's Todd McKinnon may have been the most enlightening in his own soft, you know, sweet way actually.
他平静地解释说，他们公司专长的身份验证已经扩展到AI代理。
He calmly explained that his company specialty identity verification extends to AI agents.
那些小捣蛋鬼，蚂蚁，嗡嗡声，不管你说的是什么。
Those little gremlins, the ants, the buzz, whatever you're talking.
他相当自信能阻止我们听说的任何攻击，因为他知道每个代理的身份。
He was quite confident he could stop any of these attacks we've been hearing about because he know the identity of each agent.
它们确实有身份。
They do have identities.
一旦有了身份，他就知道它们的行踪。
And once you have the identity, he knows their whereabouts.
不管是成群结队还是只有几个，都没关系。
It wouldn't matter if it was a swarm or a handful.
这些代理都会被拦下来。
The agents, they'd be stopped.
你让我想到，如果这些AI公司里有这么多真正聪明的人，却让我们都为实际的网络安全解决方案担心，这怎么可能？
You got me thinking, how is it possible if we have all these real smart people at these AI companies, and they got us all worried about a practical cyber solution?
他们为什么不跟网络安全的人聊聊呢？
Why don't they, like, talk to the cybersecurity guys?
我敢打赌，周三我们会听到很多关于那件事的消息。
I bet we hear a lot about that on Wednesday.
如果我是的话，我会这么做。周二我们也有一些重要的财报。
I would do that if I were We've got some earnings of consequence too on Tuesday.
KB Holmes 会发布报告。
KB Holmes reports.
我觉得这会是房地产开发商又一个糟糕的数字，因为当美联储加息的时候，他们怎么可能表现得好呢？
I think it's gonna be one more lousy number from a homebuilder because how are they supposed to do it well when, like, the feds raising rates?
我是说，那是他们最头疼的事。
I mean, bane of their existence.
我最头疼的是电池续航。
Mine's battery life.
他们最头疼的，大概是卖不出房子吧。
Theirs is like, I don't know, not selling homes.
好的。
Okay.
基本上，这周我们从莱纳那里听到的情况，KB那边大概也会差不多。
Basically, the same thing we heard from Lennar over this week, we would probably hear from KB.
周三除了奥克塔的会议，还有两家对中小企业非常重要的公司要发布财报。
Wednesday, besides the Okta meeting, we have reports from two companies that are very important to small, medium sized businesses.
辛塔斯，他们做制服和工资单。
Cintas, they do uniforms, and paychecks.
其实，我不应该说他们只做制服。
Now, actually, I shouldn't say say do more than uniforms there.
是辛塔斯。
It's Cintas.
他们还有很多其他业务，但这是个相当不错的生意。
They've got a lot of other things, but it's a pretty good business.
佩切克斯负责工资处理和人力资源。
Paychecks handles payroll processing and human resources.
这两家都是带着强劲势头来发布财报的。
Both are coming in earnings with a full head of steam.
有道理。
Makes sense.
那个细分市场经济依然是最热门的，而且从历史上看，第一次加息不会对它造成影响。
That segment economy remains the hottest and historically won't be hurt by that first rate hike.
通用磨坊也会发布财报。
General Mills reports too.
我从来没想过这家非常稳健的公司会有6.72%的股息收益率。
One thing I never thought I'd see was a 6.72% dividend yield for this very consistent company.
但是，投入成本、GLP-1类药物和加工食品都在拖累股价，这就是为什么股息率会这么高。
But input cost, GLP dash ones, processed food are all taking their toll on the stock, which is how a deal gets so high.
这真是个危险信号。
What a red flag.
我不推荐买它。
I can't recommend it.
周四，我们会看到达登的财报。
Thursday, we get results from Darden.
好的。
Okay.
这是怎么回事？
What's that about?
那是橄榄园。
That's Olive Garden.
不过话说回来，达登是橄榄园的母公司，而橄榄园就是个金矿。
But anyway, Darden's the parent of Olive Garden, and Olive Garden's a gold mine.
话虽如此，叫我布林克粉吧，因为我已经买了三次了。
That said, call me a Brinker guy because it's three for me.
我喜欢他们。
I like them.
他们的计划更精简、更有力。
They have a smaller a stronger game plan.
顺便说一句，那个11美元的特价非常划算。
By by the way, that $11 special is very good.
最后，还有好市多。
Finally, there's Costco.
周四收盘后公布财报，股价表现不佳，而且它是个俱乐部会员制的名字，但最近这个俱乐部名字表现不太好。
Reports after the bell on Thursday, stocks acting poorly, and it's a club name, and it has not been a good club name.
他们现在很难吸引年轻人续费会员。
They're having problems getting younger people to re sign up for membership.
问题在于，年轻人更倾向于在家网购。
The issue, younger people are more likely to shop online at home.
他们房子通常不大，而且正是这种店内体验让好市多与众不同，还有那些超棒的试吃样品。
They don't really have big houses, and it's this in store experience that makes Costco so apart from others, and what great samples.
去好市多之前千万别吃东西。
You don't don't eat before you go to Costco.
记住，九月是最凉爽的月份。
Remember, September is the coolest month.
到目前为止，表现还行，不算特别好，但已经排得满满的了。
It's been okay, not great, jam packed so far.
但今天的好消息是，我们终于超卖了。
But the good news today is that we are finally oversold.
是的。
Yes.
官方数据是负5.6，我们可能该迎来一波反弹了。
Officially, minus 5.6, and we may be due for a bounce.
但归根结底，除非总统对伊朗说出什么极端的话，希望接下来几周能相对平静，顺利度过这个月，别让它变成——
But the bottom line, unless the president says something extreme out of peak with Iran, here's hoping we'll have a relatively sedate couple of weeks and get out of this month without it turning into
痛苦之屋。
The house of pain.
来自宾夕法尼亚的Jason。
Jason in Pennsylvania.
Jason。
Jason.
Jim，下午好。
Jim, good afternoon.
我是第一次打电话，但听你的节目很久了。
I'm a first time caller, long time listener.
我非常感谢你为个人投资者所做的一切。
I appreciate everything you do for the individual investor.
哦，谢谢你，杰森。
Oh, thank you, Jason.
我很感激。
I appreciate that.
2014年，我买了美光科技的股票。
In 2014, I bought a position in Micron Technology.
从那以后我就没动过。
I haven't touched it since.
十二年后，随着人工智能的繁荣，我那个仓位的价值大幅上涨。
Twelve years later and with the AI boom, that value of my position has increased dramatically.
我现在不缺钱，也不想交税，但我知道你说的‘贪心会被宰’是什么意思。
I don't need the money right now, and I don't wanna pay the tax man, but I know what you say about pigs getting slaughtered.
美光科技月底发布财报，今天股价突破了一千美元，但还是比历史最高点低了25%。
Micron reports at the end of the month, the stock crossed a thousand dollars today, but it's still 25% off its all time high.
你觉得现在是时候在美光上获利了结了吗？
Do you think that it's time to ring the register on Micron?
不，Jason。
No, Jason.
我不这么认为。
I don't.
我不这么认为。
I don't.
你这不是要卖出的情况，我这么说是因为它的市盈率只有13倍，可能只有额外收益的六倍。
You're not being this one sell and the reason I'm saying this is it sells at 13 times earnings, maybe six times the extra earnings.
我在乎市盈率倍数，而这是一只非常便宜的股票，所以我们在慈善信托里持有大量仓位。
I care about PE multiples, and this is one one incredibly cheap stock, which is why we have a giant position for for the charitable trust.
好的。
Alright.
听我说。
Listen to me.
九月对市场来说可能非常难熬。
September can be a rough really rough for the market.
所以希望接下来的几周我们能有个好日子。
So here's hoping we have a date couple weeks coming up.
那岂不是很好？
Would that be great?
今晚的《疯狂金钱》节目内容满满：Robinhood吸引了年轻投资者，但它又在做什么来让他们一生都保持参与呢？
On Mad Money Tonight, jam packed Robinhood has captured the young investor, but what is it doing to keep them engaged throughout their lives?
我从CEO那里了解更多。
I'm learning more from the CEO.
那么，现在是时候看空铜了吗？
Then is it time to get bearish on copper?
我要从图表上分析这种对经济至关重要的非贵金属，然后西门子正处在工业AI运动的前沿。
I'm coming I'm going off the charts on this non precious metal that's integral to the economy, and then Siemens is at the forefront of the of the industrial AI movement.
我会从公司高层那里了解更多信息。
I'm finding out more from the company's top brass.
所以请继续关注克莱默。
So stay with Cramer.
给吉姆发邮件到madmoney@CNBC.com，或者拨打我们的电话180743。
Send Jim an email to madmoney@CNBC.com, or give us a call at 180743.
错过了什么吗？
Missed something?
请访问madmoney.cnbc.com。
Head to madmoney.cnbc.com.
厌倦了那些花三十秒列奖项的公司吗？
Getting bored of companies who spend thirty seconds listing their awards?
我们也一样。
So are we.
这才是你真正需要知道的。
Here's what you actually need to know.
Capital.com在Trustpilot上评分4.6，在TradingView上评分4.8。
Capital.com is rated 4.6 on Trustpilot and 4.8 on TradingView.
这些评分来自像你一样的真实用户的评价。
That's based on real reviews by people just like you.
加入超过75万使用Capital.com的交易者。
Join over 750,000 plus traders who use Capital dot com.
Capital.com。
Capital.com.
清晰交易。
Trade with clarity.
差价合约涉及高风险。
CFDs involve a high level of risk.
81.31%的零售投资者会亏损。
Eighty one point three one percent of retail investors lose money.
一切都是为了钱。
It's all about the money.
我想成为家里那个创造世代财富的人。
I wanna be the person in
我想成为家里那个创造世代财富的人。
my family that creates generational wealth.
他们怎么赚钱、怎么花钱、怎么让梦想成真。
How they earn it, spend it, and make dreams come true.
我不想粉饰太平。
I'm not gonna sugarcoat it.
这很难，但非常值得。
It's hard, but it's so worth it.
《千禧一代的金钱》，每周六全新播出，东部时间三点，CNBC频道。
Millennial Money, all new Saturdays, three eastern, CNBC.
好的。
Alright.
你对Robinhood Markets的股票怎么看？这家在线经纪平台深受年轻投资者青睐，其股价与比特币紧密相连。
What are you making the stock of Robinhood Markets, the online brokerage platform of choice for younger investors with a stock that's kind of joined at the hip with Bitcoin.
今天它涨了超过9%，多亏了比特币的涨势，而且比三月份的低点涨了将近90%。
It shot up over 9% today, thanks to Bitcoin rally, and it up nearly 90% from its March lows.
但还是没有回到一月份高点时的交易水平。
But it's still not back up to where it was trading in its highs in January.
不过，Robinhood现在有很多事情在发生。
Still, there's a lot going on at Robinhood.
这周早些时候，我在硅谷的时候，去了他们位于门洛帕克的总部，和Robinhood Markets的联合创始人、董事长兼CEO Vlad Tennant聊了聊。
Earlier this week, when I was out in Silicon Valley, I got to speak with Vlad Tennant, the cofounder, chairman, and CEO of Robinhood Markets at their headquarters in Menlo Park.
来看看吧。
Take a look.
Vlad，这段时间真是非同寻常。
Vlad, it's been a remarkable time.
你基本上抓住了人们对不同投资工具的需求。
You have kind of captured what people want in different instruments.
你把它们都带到了大家面前。
You're bringing them all.
我想问你，你们做的事情有多少是纯粹因为用户想要，而不是你们坐在房间里自己琢磨出来的？
I wanted to ask you, how much of what you do is literally because people want it as opposed to necessarily what you guys sit back in a room and offer?
我觉得这两方面都有，是个很好的结合。
I think that it's it's a good mix of both.
有很多东西，比如客户要求更多的交易资产、国际股票之类的，我们确实有源源不断的客户需求清单。
I think there's a lot of things where, you know, obviously, where where customers are asking us for more trading assets, international stocks, and things of that nature, and we we we have a endless road map from customers.
但也有一些事情，是我们有自己的看法和观点，其实没人特别要求那个东西，但我们觉得行业会往那个方向发展，我们相信能做出更大更好的产品。
But there's also things where we have an opinion and a point of view, and really nobody's asking us for that specific thing, but we think that's where the industry is gonna go, that we we believe we can build bigger, better products.
比如说，你看代币化和预测市场，那其实就是我们自己对产品有想法，然后我们就做出来了。
So for example, when you look at tokenization and prediction markets, that was just, you know, we we had a view of of what we wanted the product to be and we we built that.
还有，Robinhood正在做很多事情。
There is one, you know, Robinhood is working on a lot of stuff.
就像我们刚才聊的，我们过了一遍各种产品，信用卡、特朗普账户、代币化、美股等等。
You know, we we just as we were talking went through a long list of different products, Credit cards, Trump accounts, tokenization, you know, US equities.
我觉得所有这些背后其实只有一个核心想法，那就是所有权。
And the way I think about it is there's really one idea that's core to everything, and and that's ownership.
我们认为所有权至关重要，不仅仅是因为如果人们成为所有者，他们就会切身参与其中，能够获得经济上的好处，而且在一个更多人拥有高质量金融资产的社会里，这个社会本质上会更稳定。
We believe that ownership is essential, not just because if people are owners, they have skin in the game, they can benefit financially, but also a society where more people own high quality financial assets is inherently a more stable society.
这也是我们做所有事情的根本出发点。
And that's kind of underlying everything that we do.
但是，你怎么确定这不会变成过度的赌博呢？
But but how do you be sure that that that isn't too much gambling?
我知道我们俩已经聊了好几年了。
I know that you and I have talked for over multiple years.
我们不想鼓励赌博。
We don't wanna encourage gambling.
我们也阻止不了。
We can't stop it.
我们想鼓励投资。
We wanna encourage investing.
在什么情况下你会觉得，也许有些工具不适合我们的用户？
At what point do you say maybe some of these instruments aren't right for our people?
这个问题我们确实想了很多。
And that's a question that we think about a lot.
关键在于，没有健康的市场，所有权就无从谈起，而没有交易者，市场也无法运转。
The thing is ownership doesn't work without healthy markets, and markets don't work without traders.
所以，交易者是必不可少的。
So you need traders.
Robinhood 没有交易者也不行。
Robinhood doesn't work without traders either.
如果把活跃交易者看作我们业务的一部分，他们其实就是我们业务的引擎室和基石。
If you think about active traders as a part of our business, it's really the engine room and the foundation of our business.
我们为交易者打造的产品，能帮我们吸引客户，并引导他们使用那些可能没那么吸引人，但长期来看更重要的产品。
So the products that we build to serve traders allow us to acquire customers and get them into products that, you know, are perhaps a little bit less sexy, but long term more important.
我给你举个例子。
I'll give you an example.
实际上，在 Robinhood，我们确实激励一款产品。
There's actually one product that we incentivize at Robinhood.
你可能猜不到是什么。
You probably wouldn't guess what it was.
我确实不知道。
I do not know.
我们鼓励大家为退休储蓄。
We incentivize retirement.
所以，如果你在Robinhood开一个退休账户，并且是黄金会员，你会得到3%的配比奖励，也就是说，你每存入100美元，我们就会从公司账上额外匹配3%。
So, if you open up a retirement account at Robinhood, and you're a gold member, you get a 3% contribution match, which means every $100 you contribute, we match out of our corporate balance sheet 3%.
而且，我们的想法是，现在很多人已经不再像以前那样，在一家公司从18岁干到退休了。
And, you know, our view in that was a lot of people now have gone away from the traditional lifelong employment model where you're working at a company, you know, from 18 years old to retirement.
所以人们会频繁跳槽。
And so people are moving around.
账户的流动性也更强了，对传统的401(k)计划的依赖也减少了。
The accounts are much more portable, and there's less reliance on the conventional four one k.
所以我们想为此打造一个产品，这也是我们鼓励大家做的事情。
So we wanna build a product for that, and that's what we incentivize.
但我们也发现，退休广告并不是最能吸引人的。
But what we've also found is that, you know, retirement ads aren't the best at pulling people in.
所以我们实际上通过多种不同的渠道获取客户，包括预测市场、股票交易、加密货币。
So we actually get customers from a wide variety different means including prediction markets, stock trading, crypto.
一旦他们进入Robinhood，我们发现他们采用我们所有产品的比例相当高，并且开设退休账户，建立全面的金融关系。
And once they come into Robinhood, we've actually seen that at relatively high rates, they're adopting all of our products and opening up retirement accounts and building a comprehensive financial relationship.
但我要告诉你，这有点傻，因为每次我说，好吧，他们做得太多了，我觉得太近了。
But I'll tell you, it's silly you meant because every time I I say, okay, they're doing too much, I think it's too close.
预测可能太像赌博了。
Prediction may be too much gambling.
然后我看一下你们提供的3%的信用卡，那比很多信用卡都好。
I then look at a credit card that you do 3%, and that's better than so many credit cards.
我看一下你们每次做的事情。
I look at the what you're doing per time.
我说，哇，那真不错。
I said, boy, that's pretty good.
所以这就是为什么我从这里开始说起。
What what so it this is why I start with this.
因为我觉得你们比其他任何公司都更了解大众的潮流，那些将从婴儿潮一代传给Z世代的数万亿美元，你们最清楚这些钱会流向哪里。
Because I think you are in touch with the zeitgeist of all the people, more people than any other firm who are going to get the trillions of dollars from the generational handoff of baby boom to people who are in Gen z.
而且你们正好提供了他们想要的东西，尽管他们自己都不太确定自己想要什么。
And you have what they want, although they aren't even sure enough of what they want.
你们提供了各种各样的选择，而其他公司没有，这就是为什么你们如此成功。
You offer the vast panoply, and the other guys don't, which is what I'm leading to is why you're so darn successful.
嗯，我们很感激。
Well, we appreciate that.
我觉得还有很多事情要做。
I think there's a lot more to do.
我们看看我们能提供的所有产品，以及我们正在提供的产品。
I think that we look at all the products that that that we could offer, that we are offering.
我仍然觉得还有很多事情要做。
I still think there's a lot more to do.
你自己也提到了这一点。
And you mentioned it yourself.
超过一百万亿的财富正在从老一辈人手中转移到年轻一代。
Over 100,000,000,000,000 in wealth is passing from older generations to younger.
而且，你知道，当我们思考这意味着什么时，这将是未来几十年里规模巨大且不断加速的资产转移。
And, you know, when we look at what that means, that's accelerating and very large asset transfer over the next several decades.
而且，你知道，这些客户的需求在不断变化。
And, you know, these customers, their needs evolve.
他们一开始的需求相对简单，比如，他们想找个地方买股票，可能还会开个个人退休账户。
So they start out with relatively simple needs like, you know, they want a place to buy stocks, maybe they'll have an IRA.
随着时间的推移，他们的需求会变得更加复杂。
Over time, they'll get more complex.
他们开始询问信托服务，我们现在提供不同类型的信托。
They start asking for trusts, which we now offer different types of trusts.
他们想要遗产规划。
They want estate planning.
他们想要私人财富管理和私人银行业务。
They want private wealth management, private banking.
我们的挑战，我觉得对我个人来说是个很兴奋的挑战，就是怎么才能把这些高净值客户才能享受的产品，以非常低的价格提供给大众市场。
And our challenge, and I think this is like an exciting one for me personally is how can we offer these high net worth quality products to the mass market at very low prices?
我觉得这个挑战很让人兴奋，因为作为工程师和技术人员，你可以通过技术手段大力推进这件事。
And I think that's an exciting challenge for me because as an engineer and a technologist, you can actually push pretty hard by by using technology.
以前，你得走进那种有大柱子的建筑，跟那些穿着西装、收费昂贵的人打交道，才能获得这些服务。
It used to be that you had to go into a building with big columns and talk to expensive people wearing suits in order to get some of these services.
如果你的资金少于25万美元，他们甚至都不愿意跟你谈。
They wouldn't even talk to you if you have less than, you know, $250,000
在他们机构里。
With with their institution.
而有了技术，我们可以把大门开得更大，让数千万人都能进来。
And, you know, with technology, we can make the front door much bigger and open it up to tens of millions.
但是你怎么知道——我一直觉得你是在让金融民主化，我们第一次请你来的时候，那时候你其实还只是个应用，我们就请过你。
But how do you know I mean, I've always felt that you were democratizing finance, is when we first had you on long before you actually really just when you an app, we had you on.
你当时确实是在推动金融民主化，或者说是制造更多可交易的东西，我不知道你是否认为这完全是件好事。
You you were definitely about democratizing finance or manufacturing more things to trade, which I don't know whether you I think is actually point blank a good thing.
我们非常努力地不去引导客户往某个方向走。
We try really hard not to push our customers in one direction or another.
我的意思是，如果说我们有什么鼓励的，那就是通过3%的匹配来鼓励退休储蓄。
I mean, if if there's anything we do incentivize, it's it's retirement with the 3% match.
话虽如此，我们也认识到人们会交易，而且这甚至不是两类不同的人。
That said, we recognize also people trade things, and it's not even two different groups of people.
并不是说一边是交易者，另一边是追求安全的人。
It's not like you have the traders and, you know, the safety seekers.
在每个人心里，在大多数人心里，有一部分想要安全和保障，想要确保自己的财务未来是稳固的。
Inside every person, inside most people, there's a part of you that wants safety, wants security, and wants to make sure your financial future is secure.
然后还有另一部分有自己的观点，想要把投资组合的一部分拿出来做不同的交易。
Then there's another part that does have a point of view, and you know, wants to take a portion of your portfolio and put it in in different trades.
我知道我自己也是这样，
I know I'm the same,
但是你知道，我觉得应该拿十分之一出来。
but have a You know, I say one tenth should go.
十分之一应该是因为我希望人们参与进来，但他们想投机。
One tenth should be because I want people to be in, but they wanna speculate.
我管这叫投机。
I I call it speculation.
我觉得每个人都有权利去投机。
I think everyone has a right to speculate.
这是非常人性化的事情。
It's it's a very human thing.
你知道，每个人内心都有冒险的部分，也有追求安全的部分，我觉得这在你的财务生活中确实会体现出来。
You know, inside every human, there's sort of like a risk taking part and also a safety seeking part, and I think that does intersect in your financial life.
嗯，这就是为什么
Well, that's why
这一切都
it's all
都在一个屋檐下，这挺好的。
under one roof, which is good.
我的意思是，我知道有人会参与预测市场。
I mean, I know that but someone they're gonna do people are gonna be in predictions markets.
我宁愿它在一个大家都熟悉的地方。
I'd rather have it be in a place where it's, you know, a known place.
我可不想待在一个没人听说过的地方。
I don't want to be in some out out no one's ever heard of.
你有潜力打造一个无所不能的终极应用。
You have you have the potential for the ultimate killer app that does everything.
没错。
That's right.
而且我觉得所有这些资产都非常非常有用。
And I think that all of these assets, I think, are very, very useful.
对。
Mean Right.
如果你看看预测市场，以及它和所有权的关系。
If you look at prediction markets and how that ties into ownership.
通过预测市场，你可以直接将自己的想法或见解变现。
You can directly with prediction markets, monetize an idea or an insight.
所以如果你对加密货币市场的立法结构有特定看法，比如《清晰法案》，我们就有相关的市场。
So if you have a particular view on crypto market structure legislation, the Clarity Act, we have a market on that.
如果你对美联储利率有看法，你可以直接交易美联储利率，而不必交易期货或其他相关产品。
If you have a view on Fed rates, well, you can trade the Fed rate rather than, you know, trading futures or other products that are tied to it.
而且人们交易的合约类型将会大幅增加。
And there there's gonna be a huge increase in the types of contracts that people trade.
我们现在还处于起步阶段。
Like, we're we're at the very beginning.
我们已经看到了一些多元化的发展。
We're already seeing some diversification.
很多人看到这个会说，这不就是体育博彩嘛。
A lot of people look at it and say, well, this is just sports.
展开剩余字幕（还有 426 条）
全都是体育。
It's all sports.
但我们已经看到像加密货币这样的其他类别占据了不成比例的份额。
But we're already seeing other categories like crypto taking a disproportionate share.
而且我觉得几年之内，体育实际上会变成少数。
And I think within a few years, sports will actually be in the minority.
类似于整体上的活跃交易，体育一直是吸引人们、获得流动性、激发兴趣和建立基础的好工具。
Similar to active trading at large, sports has been a great tool to bring people in, get liquidity, get interest, establish.
这有点像是一个楔子，但我认为这个行业也在远远超出体育的领域扩展。
It's it's sort of like a wedge, but I think the industry is is also expanding far beyond sports.
吉姆，出来一下。
Jim, come out here.
就最后一件事。
Just one last thing.
特朗普的账户表现怎么样？
How are the Trump accounts doing?
因为我们对节目里的那些内容非常有热情。
Because we feel passionately about those on the show.
而且我们知道你是关键人物之一，我敢打赌，你在特朗普账户下的资金肯定比任何其他公司都多。
And we know that you're one of the key well, you'd I bet you'd have more money under the Trump accounts than any other firm.
嗯，目前我们是唯一的
Well, so currently, we're the sole
特朗普账户的经纪商和初始受托人，与纽约梅隆银行合作，他们是财务代理，当然还有美国财政部和政府。
broker and initial trustee of the Trump accounts in partnership with BNY, who's a financial agent, and of course, US Treasury and the administration.
所以这就像我们常说的，所有权是Robinhood创立的核心理念。
So this has been a we talk about ownership being the one idea that Robin Hood's founded on.
没有比从出生、从零岁开始更好的方式来实现这一理念了。
No better way to make that a reality than to start at birth from age zero.
教孩子们了解复利，让他们与这个国家的伟大公司建立联系，而且我们以非常非常低的成本做到这一点。
You teach the kids about compound interest, you you create a connection with the great companies of this country, and we do it at very, very low cost.
所以这个项目效果非常显著。
So the program's been extraordinarily effective.
预注册人数达到了七百万。
7,000,000 signed up prelaunch.
就在上周，迈克尔·戴尔通过他的基金会捐了一大笔钱，把这个项目启动起来了。
And just last week, we've seen Michael Dell who kick started this thing with a massive donation from from his foundation.
他的资金已经开始发放给孩子们了。
His funds have started rolling out to the children.
我们看到越来越多的东西在建设当中。
And what we've seen is more and more things are being built.
我们还会推出一个大型雇主计划，这样雇主就能管理特朗普账户，为员工缴纳款项，我们正在开发这个功能。
We're gonna have a big employer program, so employers will be able to manage the Trump accounts, contributions to their employees, and and we're building that out.
捐赠者方面，一开始是迈克尔·戴尔，但还有其他人，对吧。
Donors, it started with Michael Dell, but there's also Right.
本·肖特韦尔、布拉德·格斯特纳，还有很多其他人。
Ben Shotwell, Brad Gerstner, so many others.
我觉得这可能是目前最好的慈善平台了。
I think this could be the best philanthropic platform out there.
好吧，我们可能只能聊到这儿了。
Well, we may have to leave it at that.
还有很多话题可以聊。
There are many more things to talk about.
不过我们确实得走了，但我想感谢你，Vlad，你让很多人开始接触金融。
We do have to run though, but I wanna thank you Vlad for you turn on a lot of people to finance.
你通过很多不同的方式，让他们学会储蓄，让他们能够退休，还让他们能在信用卡上多赚一点。
And in many different ways, you get them in only to save, and you get them to retire with retirement and you get them to be able to earn a little more on a credit card.
我觉得这是很大的成功。
I think that's a great success.
而且通过代币化，可以在全球范围内实现。
And through tokenization, do it all over the world.
好的。
Okay.
这就是为什么我是Robinhood的董事长、总裁兼CEO。
That's why I'm 10 of chairman, president, CEO of Robinhood.
谢谢你抽出时间，兄弟。
Thanks for the time, man.
非常感谢。
Appreciate it.
接下来，铜价一直在冲击历史新高，但可能不会持续太久。
Coming up, copper has been pushing for record highs, but it may not last for long.
克莱默有图表可以证明这一点。
Cramer's got the charts to prove it.
接下来。
Next.
34万亿美元。
$3,400,000,000,000.
那是capital.com在2025年的交易量，得益于一个鼓励用户采取深思熟虑、稳健策略的平台。
That was capital.com's trading volume in 2025, driven by a platform that encourages a considered measured approach from its users.
这个平台背后有多年工程、测试和优化的积累。
One with years of engineering, testing, and refining behind it.
花了很多时间构建系统，让它们在市场动荡时依然稳定。
Hours spent building systems that stay steady when the markets don't.
因为规模不是一朝一夕建成的，而是靠持续积累。
Because scale isn't built in a moment, it's built in consistency.
Capital.com，清晰交易。差价合约涉及高风险。
Capital.com Trade with clarity CFDs involve a high level of risk.
81.31%的零售投资者会亏损。
Eighty one point three one percent of retail investors lose money.
花掉它，让梦想成真。
Spend it, and make dreams come true.
我不想粉饰太平。
I'm not gonna sugarcoat it.
这很难，但非常值得。
It's hard, but it's so worth it.
《千禧一代理财》，全新一期，周六东部时间三点，CNBC。
Millennial Money, all new Saturdays, three eastern, CNBC.
最近，铜价一直在多年高点附近徘徊。
Lately, price of copper has been hanging around within spitting distance of moly year highs.
通常情况下，这预示着经济强劲，因为任何建筑项目，包括数据中心，都需要大量铜。
Normally, that's a sign of strength for the economy because you need a lot of copper for any kind of construction, including the data center.
但有时候，价格涨得太高，反而会适得其反。
But sometimes the price can get so high that it becomes self defeated.
我们现在是不是已经到了那个临界点？
Have we reached that point now?
今晚，我们将和拉里·威廉姆斯一起深入图表分析。
Tonight, we're going off the charts with Larry Williams.
他是一位传奇的技术分析师和市场历史学家，在我学会开车之前，他就已经是业内顶尖的了。
He's that legendary technician and market historian who's been the best in the business since before I learned how to drive.
这并不能回答这个问题。
This is not an answer to this question.
这很有意思。
It's fascinating.
记住，拉里这几年跟我们一起的表现真是非常出色。
Remember, Larry's had a truly incredible track record with us in recent years.
他在2020年4月准确预测了新冠疫情的底部，那是有史以来最精彩的预测之一。
He called the COVID bottom in April 2020, one the greatest calls ever.
当时其他人都还觉得经济要崩溃了。
Everyone else still thought the economy was collapsing.
五个月前，他让我们远离黄金，结果黄金在五月和六月就大跌了。
Five months ago, he told us to steer clear of gold before it got slammed in May and June.
现在他说铜已经进入了极度高估的脆弱阶段。
And now he says that copper's entered a vulnerable phase of extreme overvaluation.
最近，商业对冲者一直在疯狂抛售铜期货。
Lately, commercial hedgers have been selling copper futures like crazy.
而大小投资者却积累了大量的净多头头寸。
While both large and small investors have accumulated enormous net long positions.
在拉里看来，这是散户和专业投资者之间的对决，而专业投资者就是商业对冲者，他总是倾向于跟随专业人士，也就是商业对冲者，这是你需要知道的最重要的事情。
As Larry sees it, this is a case where the public versus the professionals is all about the it's the most important thing you need to know, and the professionals are the commercial hedgers, and he always wants to go with the pros, the commercial hedgers.
问题出在哪里？
What's the issue here?
首先，超大规模数据中心运营商已经开始用光纤电缆替代铜缆，光纤既更快又更便宜。
For starters, the hyperscalers have started replacing copper with fiber optic cable, which is both faster and cheaper to use.
此外，一旦美联储开始加息，这通常会对大宗商品价格产生相当大的负面影响。
On top of that, once the Federal Reserve starts raising interest rates, it eventually tends to have a pretty negative impact on commodity prices.
尽管这可能需要一段时间才能显现出来，就像从数据中心移除铜缆一样缓慢。
Although that can take some time to play out as well the copper being pulled out of a data center slow.
八月底，我们听到另一位图表分析师朗的言论，他当时非常看好铜，但那是在美联储认真打击通胀之前。
At the end of August, we heard from another chartist, Lang, who was very bullish on copper, but that was before the Fed got serious about stamping out inflation.
那也是在OpenAI和Anthropic开始讨论需要放缓AI发展步伐之前。
It was also before OpenAI and Anthropic started talking about the need for an AI slowdown pacing.
现在世界已经大不相同了。
We're a very different world now.
与此同时，图表看起来也不太乐观。
At the same time, the charts, well, they don't look pretty.
首先，看看这张铜的周线图，下面黑色的是拉里的估值模型。
First, check out this weekly chart of copper with Larry's valuation model down at the bottom in black.
看到了吗？
Okay?
这个模型显示的是铜相对于美元指数的估值。
The model shows you the valuation of copper versus the dollar index.
每当它达到超买水平，也就是黑色估值线超过红色线的时候，往往会引发铜价本身的抛售。
Whenever it reaches overvalued levels where the black valuation line goes above the red one right here, it tends to trigger a sell off in the underlying metal.
过去几年里，这种情况我们已经见过一次又一次。
We've seen this over and over and over again in the last couple of years.
有些跌幅比其他时候要剧烈得多。
Some of these declines were a lot more extreme than others.
但不管怎样，这个指标达到超买水平，绝对不是什么好兆头。
But either way, this indicator reaching overvalued levels has been a pretty darn bad sign.
哇。
Woah.
然后还有一个问题，就是谁在铜价涨到这些水平的时候还在买入。
Then there's the issue who's buying copper descended up these levels.
看一下这个铜期货的周线图，就是那个Think Gator的图。
Take a look at the think Gator's this weekly chart of the copper futures.
对吧？
Okay?
这个很重要。
Now this is important.
CFTC的交易员持仓报告在图表底部。
This CFTC's commitment of traders data is down at the bottom.
就是那个COT报告。
That's the Cot report.
对吧？
Okay?
这个调查显示了大投机者、小投机者和商业对冲者在商品中的持仓情况。
This is a survey that shows you how large speculators, small speculators, and commercial hedgers position in the commodity.
大型投机者是专业的资金管理人，小型投机者可能是像你一样的散户。
Large speculators are professional money managers, small speculators are home gamers maybe like you.
而商业套期保值者则是真正从事铜业务的商家，要么是生产商，要么是消费者。
And commercial hedgers are businesses that actually deal in copper, either as producer or consumer.
拉里喜欢跟着商业套期保值者下注。
Larry likes to bet with the commercial hedgers.
对吧？
Okay?
因为他们最了解这个行业。
Because they're the ones who best understand the industry.
他们每天都在这个行业里。
They're in it every day.
同时，他对大型看涨投机者非常怀疑，尤其是当他们的仓位开始变得极端的时候。
At the same time, he's very skeptical of the largest bull speculators, especially when the positions start getting extreme.
你看底部，可以看到两条线。
When you look at the bottom, you can see two lines.
黑色线显示的是未平仓合约量。
Black shows open interest.
明白吗？
Okay?
意思就是铜期货市场的总交易情况。
The meaning the total market action of copper futures.
蓝色线代表小型投机者，通常他们信息最不灵通。
The blue line shows small speculators, generally the least informed.
最近，投机者大量买入铜，以至于未平仓合约量大幅上升。
Lately, speculators have become heavy, heavy buyers of copper to the point where it's driven up the open interest substantially.
但之前几次我们看到小型投机者极度看涨铜时，结果都导致了大幅下跌。
But the last couple times we saw small speculators get very bullish on copper, well, it led to some serious declines.
现在我们来看一个更宏观的视角。
Now let's take a broader view.
这张图展示的是铜价与三类交易者的持仓报告数据对比。
This next chart shows you copper versus the commitments of traders data for all three groups.
好的。
Okay.
商业套期保值者用红色表示。
Commercial hedges are in red.
投机者用绿色表示，大型投机者用蓝色表示。
Speculators are in green, and large speculators are in blue.
拉里指出，两类投机者在铜期货上都持有大量净多头头寸，但商业套期保值者，呃，不是这样。
Larry points out that both kinds of speculators have low have large net long positions in copper, but the commercial hedgers, uh-uh.
你看，他们持有多年来的最大净空头头寸。
See, they've been the largest net short position in years.
哦，天哪，这很重要。
Oh, boy, this is important.
还有谁会买呢？
Who's left to buy?
拉里认为，两类投机者都已经精疲力尽，而商业套期保值者不会在铜价处于多年高位时转为看多。
Larry thinks the both speculators have exhausted themselves and the commercial headers aren't gonna turn positive with copper prices at their highest level in years.
商业套保者押注这些价格会下跌。
The commercials are betting that those prices will come down.
拉里说，从历史上看，他们的表现比任何一类投机者都要好。
And historically, Larry says, they have a better track record than either kind of speculator.
所以这又是一个信号，表明铜价可能接近顶峰了。
So this is another sign that copper could be approaching its peak.
这里还有什么其他情况？
What else is going on here?
好的。
Okay.
拉里总是在寻找重复出现的模式。
Larry, always looking for patterns that repeat themselves.
好。
K.
现在听好了。
Now get this.
看看这张铜的周线图。
Take a look at this weekly chart of copper.
对吧？
Okay?
这是威廉姆斯交易周期。
It's Williams trading cycles.
从过去的走势来看，他发现了一个主导周期，每三百天重复一次。
At the past action here, he's detected a dominant cycle that repeats itself every three hundred days.
我们在2024年看到了。
We saw it in 2024.
在2025年也看到了。
We saw it in 2025.
而且它和走势的吻合度出奇地高。
And it fits the action surprisingly well.
大部分主要波动都对应着周期预测中的高点或低点。
Most of the major moves coincide with peaks or troughs in the cycle forecast.
那么，这个周期现在告诉我们什么呢？
So what does the cycle tell us in this present moment?
我想让你看看最近的图表，上面有预测到未来的周期走势。
I want you to check out the recent chart with the cycle forecast projected into the future.
目前，铜价正处于周期的高点，而这个高点即将转为非常负面的走势。
As of right now, copper is at a high point in the cycle, which is about to turn very negative.
根据拉里的追踪指标，现在不会进场买入。
Given Larry's tracker, would not come in here and start buying this right now.
现在就是这种情况。
This is where it is.
明白吗？
Okay?
当它涨到这个高度时，你就卖出。
When it gets up to this height, you sell it.
明白吗？
Okay?
涨到这个高度，你就卖掉。
Gets up this height, you sell it.
现在这个位置，是买入的最差时机，但所有人都对铜非常看好。
Right here, we're at the worst possible level to buy and everybody's so bullish on copper.
我们来看看铜的日线图怎么样？
How about if we drill down on copper's daily chart?
好的。
Alright.
上周，这种红色金属完成了拉里最可靠的形态之一，铜突破了交易区间，创出新高收盘，然后立刻下跌。
This past week, the red metal completed one of Larry's most reliable patterns as copper broke out of a trading range with a new high close, then immediately broke to the downside.
现在，拉里想等最后一次短期反弹，希望铜能进入超买区域，因为已经涨得很高了。
Right now, Larry wants to wait for one last short term rally in the hope that copper goes to overbought levels because it's up up there.
他觉得，做空它就像在桶里射鱼一样容易。
He thinks shoot it, shorty it would be like shooting fish in a bow.
底线是这样的。
Here's the bottom line.
拉里·威廉姆斯解读的图表显示，铜价即将下跌。
The charts interpreted by Larry Williams suggest that copper prices are poised to roll over.
考虑到美联储现在正在收紧政策，我觉得这很有道理。
Given that the Fed's now in tightening mode, I think that makes a lot of sense.
当美联储不再是你的朋友时，铜价最容易下跌。
When the Fed is no longer your friend, the path of least resistance for copper is lower.
那些是我见过的最糟糕的图表之一。
Those were some of the most damning charts I've ever seen.
如果我持有铜，或者顺便说一句，持有FCX或南方铜业，我想我周一就会卖掉。
If I were in copper and I saw that or by the way, FCX or Southern, I guess I'd sell them Monday.
天哪，资金又回到了突破点。
Man, money's back here to the break.
接下来，克莱默将与西门子CEO对话，了解该公司如何从人工智能的崛起中受益。
Coming up, Cramer sitting down with the CEO of Siemens to learn more about how the company is benefiting from the rise of AI.
下一条。
Next.
在参加Salesforce年度Dreamforce大会时，我有机会和西门子聊了聊，这家德国工业巨头，欧洲最大的工业企业。
When I was at Salesforce's annual Dreamforce conference, I got the chance to catch up with Siemens, the German industrial powerhouse, biggest industrial in Europe.
最近，西门子从大规模的数据中心建设中获益不少。
Lately, Siemens has been benefiting from the great data center build out.
电气化和气候控制产品的订单非常多，他们的工业自动化业务也火得不行。
Lots of orders for electrification and climate control products, and their industrial automation business, it's on fire.
我和西门子总裁兼首席执行官罗兰德·布什博士进行了深入交流。
I got to dig deep with doctor Roland Bush, the president and CEO of Siemens.
一起来看看。
Take a look.
布什博士，欢迎来到《Hand Money》节目。
Doctor Bush, welcome to Hand Money.
谢谢你的邀请。
Thanks for having me.
谢谢你的邀请。
Thanks for having me.
我真的很兴奋。
Well, I'm so excited.
首先，你们是欧洲最大的工业公司，但我觉得你们在使用人工智能方面可能也是最前沿的。
First of all, you're you are the largest industrial company in Europe, but I think you may also be the most forward when it comes to using artificial intelligence.
人工智能。
Intelligence.
你们整个公司都因此焕然一新了。
Your entire company has been reinvented because of it.
是的。
Yes.
确实如此。
Indeed.
其实，我们的主题，也就是我们的战略，可以用一句话概括。
Actually, our theme is our strategy is in one sentence.
我们把现实世界和数字世界结合起来。
We combine the real and the digital worlds.
我们在工业时代就是这么做的，所以AI正在加速我们的战略，这非常令人兴奋。
We do that industrial age, so that means AI is accelerating our strategy, and that's super exciting.
所以这真的关乎工业AI，也就是当非确定性技术遇到确定性世界，也就是现实世界时的情况。
So it's really all about industrial AI that when a nondeterministic technology hits a deterministic world, which is the real world.
我的意思是，在自动化工厂时，我们不能允许在车间里出现幻觉。
I mean, we cannot allow hallucination on a on a shop floor when you automate a plant.
所以，这是一个大主题，而且——
So and that's that's a big theme, and
我相信我们有一个——
I I believe this is a we have a
我们在这里可以发挥很大的作用，因为我们了解现实世界。
fair share to play here because we know the real world.
我们知道如何自动化工厂。
We know how to automate automate factories.
我们知道如何制造火车，但我们也知道如何构建数字孪生，我们可以把这两者结合起来。
We know how to build trains, but we also know how to build digital twins, and we can bring this together.
当Jensen提出那个想法时，我说，这只会对那些拥有巨大工厂的公司有用。
When Jensen introduced that idea, I said, well, it's going to be only work for companies that have massive, massive factories to build.
结果发现，你们就是这样的公司。
And it turned out to be you.
对你们来说非常合适。
Works perfect for you.
哦，是的。
Oh, yeah.
绝对是这样。
Absolutely.
而且，仅西门子一家就有25万名员工。
So and we have we have 250,000 people in Siemens alone.
加上House of Near，总共32万。
With House of Near, 320,000.
我们确实在运营这些业务。
We are we are operating stuff.
所以，其实世界上每三条生产线中就有一条是西门子技术自动化的。
So every I mean, actually, every third line in the world is automated by Siemens technology.
每三条生产线中就有一条。
Every third line.
天哪。
Oh my.
我们知道，我们知道你们的竞争对手。
We know we know your competitors.
实际上，他们的规模只有你们的一小部分。
In fact, they're a fraction of your size.
我觉得有一件事特别让人兴奋，就是你在主题演讲中和Mark对话的时候，是的。
Now one of the things that I think is very exciting when you were talking with Mark at the keynote Yes.
这一点非常清楚。
It is very clear.
很多人以为他们用AI只是为了做客服中心。
A lot of people think that what what's that that they're using AI for call centers.
对。
Yes.
你知道，我我看看。
You know, I I look.
我觉得客服中心的工作。
I think a call center job.
我有很多朋友做这个，但就知识产权含量来说，这工作不算高。
I have many friends who have them, but they're they're not the highest in terms of of of intellectual property.
而你，却把它用在工程级别的答案上。
You, on the other hand, are using it for engineering grade answers.
这真是大胆的举动。
Now that's a gutsy thing to do.
这行得通吗？
Is it working?
正是如此。
Exactly.
这体现在你设计产品、制造产品以及运营产品的方式上。
And this is this takes place in the way how you design products, how you manufacture them, and how you operate them.
在所有阶段，当你使用数字技术和AI技术时，都会看到巨大的变化。
In all phases, you'll see a tremendous change when you use digital technologies and AI technologies.
那么，让我给你举个例子，关于产品设计。
Then let me give you an idea of a of a design of a product.
首先，你猜怎么着，一切都从数据开始。
So first, it starts, guess what, with the data.
用的是Teamcenter，这是我们的一款PLM软件，也就是产品生命周期管理软件。
With Teamcenter, this is our PLM software, product life cycle management software.
这些数据都由它来管理。
They hold the data.
这非常有意思，因为首先，大多数模型还没有接触过这些数据。
And this is super interesting because not number one is most of the models didn't see these data yet.
它们甚至读不了这些数据，因为这些是设计数据和工程数据。
They can even not read them because they have design data, engineering data.
它们还会追踪你做了哪些修改。
They also trace what you changed.
修改记录特别有意思，因为模型能从中学习你为什么做出改动。
Changes are super interesting because the model can learn why you changed something.
同时，这也关系到如何为制造环节编写指导说明，确保可操作性。
And it's also the serviceability of how you orient the instructions for your manufacturing.
所以，这就是一个单一数据源。
So this is a single source of truth.
如果在此基础上加上我们的工程软件，就能设计产品，而借助AI和增强现实，你可以加速这个过程，甚至能从以往的设计中学习，更快地创造出新设计。
And if you put now our engineering software on top, can design products, but with AI and an adrenthic eye, you can accelerate, and you really can even learn from your older designs and create new ones much faster.
这能缩短你的周期时间，最终让你更快获得更好的成果。
It shortens your cycle time and eventually gives you better outcome faster.
我知道你为别人做这些。
Now I know you do that for others.
你也为自己做。
You do it for yourself.
是的。
Yes.
我相信，当你节省了那笔钱，它不一定对工人来说是净损失。
I have to believe that when you save that money, it isn't necessarily a deadweight loss for workers.
我觉得可能恰恰相反。
I think it might be the other.
你有能力用AI去雇佣、发展和做更多的事情。
You have an ability to hire and grow and do more things with AI.
哦，是的。
Oh, yes.
我的意思是，我并不太担心失业问题。
I mean, I'm not so much concerned about losing jobs.
对我来说，关键是工作确实在变化。
For me, the point is that jobs do change.
所以，如果你处于
So it's a if you're in
像我们这样的位置，如果你成长了，就有机会创造新的工作岗位。
a position like us, if you grow, you have an opportunity to create new jobs.
但是一旦你培训员工使用技术，你确实会发现新工作，也会失去一些。
But once you train your people on using technology, you can really find you find new jobs, you lose some.
这是很清楚的。
That's clear.
但即使在车间，当我们运行——让我说——自主制造站点时，这就是我们前进的方向。
But even on the shop floor, when we are running, let me, autumn autonomous manufacturing sites, that's what we are heading for.
你仍然会看到人们在那边工作。
You will see still people working there.
你有
You have a
很多情境化的工作。
lot of contextualization.
人类始终在流程中参与。
You have the human in the loop always.
我的意思是，即使那里有几百台机器人在运行，某种程度上，你还是需要协调它们。
I mean and even if you have hundreds robots running there, to some extent, you need to orchestrate them.
所以，会有新的工作岗位出现。
So therefore, there will be new jobs.
我们会在培训和再教育上投入大量资源。
We'll invest a lot in training and education.
通过这样做，你可以大幅提升生产力，速度快得多。
And by doing that, you can drive productivity much, much faster.
好的。
Okay.
现在你最近有53%的业务在欧洲，28%到24%在美洲。
Now you have 53 of your business most recently in Europe, 28% 24% in America.
你的目标是在美洲增加更多业务吗？
Is your goal to have more business in America?
首先，这是目标；其次，这也是不可避免的。
I mean, number one, it's the goal, and number two, we can't even can't avoid it.
所以不是的。
So it's not Yeah.
市场相当
The market is pretty
也是个外交家。
a diplomat too.
你身兼多职。
You have many different hats.
我跟你说。
I'll tell you.
美国市场确实是增长最快的市场。
The American market is really the fastest growing market.
不仅仅是数据中心。
It's it's not only data center.
很多因素汇聚在一起。
It's it's a lot which comes together.
而且，他们在软件、IT新技术和AI技术方面也收取费用。
Also, they take rate on on software, IT new technologies, AI technologies.
所以我们现在有四分之一的业务来自美国，而且这个比例还在增长。
So we are we are now in a a quarter of our business come to United States, and this is increasing.
那具体是哪些业务？比例是多少？
Now which ones where's the percentage?
是数字产业、智能基础设施，还是移动出行？
Digital industries or smart infrastructure or mobility?
还是说这些业务都在美国？
Or are they all in The United States?
这些业务都在美国。
They're all in The United States.
真的吗？
Really?
好的。
Okay.
所以说到交通出行，因为我们国家的铁路实在太差了。
So mobility, because our country is so bad at rail.
我们会变得更好吗？
Are we gonna get better?
会的。
Yes.
会的。
Yes.
靠我们的火车。
With our trains.
绝对会。
Absolutely.
那太好了。
So That would be nice.
我们最大的火车制造基地之一就在萨克拉门托，现在我们在东海岸又新增了一个。
If one of our largest manufacturing site for trains sits in Sacramento, we added a new one now on the East Coast.
所以，我们正在大力投资。
So, therefore, we are investing.
我们制造火车。
We build trains.
美铁正在用我们的火车更新他们的车队。
Amtrak is renewing their fleet with our trains.
所以，我们在铁路领域有很强的影响力，同时在电气化方面也是如此。
So therefore, a very strong footprint, but also on the electrification side.
我们刚刚又投资了2亿美元，扩大中低压电气化设施。
We just invested another 200,000,000 expanding our electrification sites for medium voltage, low voltage.
所以这是一大笔钱。
So it's a it's a lot of money.
在我们内部，我想，过去十年里，我们总共投资了，顺便说一下，软件方面。
Within us, I think, last ten years, we invested in total by the way, software.
我们的软件业务总部设在美国。
Our software business is headed in United States.
这些投资来自过去大约二十年里的大量收购，总额达到300亿美元。
It comes from a lot of acquisitions over the course of the last twenty or so years when there's 30,000,000,000.
其中大部分都花在了并购上。
Most of that in in just m and a.
而且大部分投资都在美国，我们还在继续加大这里的投入。
Most of that is in United States, and we keep on investing here.
既然说到这个，我得跟你推销一下美国。
If do that, I have to tell you one of the things I'm gonna put a sales pitch for America here.
你们的美国存托凭证（ADR）没问题。
You ADRs are fine.
你们现在就是用这个交易的，但交易量非常非常小。
That's what you traded, but very, very little trade.
你们应该来美国上市。
You should come and list in America.
在纽约证券交易所上市，因为你们是欧洲最大的工业公司，而且欧洲——我觉得大家可能没意识到——欧洲市场现在非常火爆。
List on the New York Stock Exchange because you're the biggest industrial company in Europe, and Europe's been I don't think people realize, but Europe's been red hot.
你觉得你的市场比我们的好。
You think your market's better than ours.
是的。
Yes.
你说得有道理。
You have a point here.
但是
But
我当然觉得。
I sure do.
让我说说
Let me touch
我要感谢西门子CEO罗兰·布什。
I wanna thank Roland Bush, the CEO of Siemens.
吉姆。
Jim.
你知道吗？
You know what?
你真是……我真不敢相信能见到你，因为你们公司太棒了。
You're just a I can't believe I got to meet you because your company's so amazing.
非常感谢。
Thank you very much.
有你在真好。
Having you.
谢谢。
Thank you.
天哪，明天就还钱。
Man, money back tomorrow.
接下来，他是华尔街反应最快的人，所以我们要在你的帮助下考验他。
Coming up, he's the fastest mind on Wall Street, so we're putting him to the test with your help.
接下来是闪电问答环节。
Bring on the lightning round next.
好的。
Sound.
然后闪电回合就结束了。
And then the lightning round is over.
你准备好了吗？
Are you ready?
史蒂夫？
Steve?
爸爸。
Daddy.
现在闪电回合结束了。
Now the lightning round over.
我要从路易斯安那的里克开始。
I'm gonna start with Rick and Louisiana.
里克。
Rick.
嘿，吉姆。
Hey, Jim.
我听了很久了，第一次打电话进来，而且我是你的超级粉丝。
Longtime listener, first time caller, and a huge fan.
感谢你为投资者所做的一切。
Thanks for doing everything you do for for investors.
好的，谢谢你打来电话。
Well, thank you for calling.
嘿。
Hey.
我是美国房地产公司的总裁，我参与所有与住房相关的事务。
I'm president of the United Real Estate Company, and I'm I'm involved in all things housing.
但今天，我打电话来是想聊聊Rocket Mortgage。
But today, I'm calling about Rocket Mortgage.
Rocket在房地产行业确实面临一些阻力，但他们有一个非常强大的抵押贷款平台，而且我觉得他们正在抢占市场份额。
Rocket's facing headwinds for sure in the housing sector, but they have a tremendous mortgage platform, and I I think they're taking share.
我需要知道是否应该继续建仓。
I need to know if I should continue building.
你知道吗？
You know?
我是说，我得告诉你，加息对这些家伙来说是最糟糕的事情。
I mean, I gotta tell Be the rate hike is the worst thing for these guys.
而且，你知道，股价已经反映了加息预期，但现在我们不得不面对多次加息。
And and, you know, the stock is predicting a rate hike, but now we have to have multiple rate hikes.
它并没有预测到多次加息。
It's not predicting multiple rate hikes.
所以，我觉得我不能推荐这个股票。
So therefore, I think I cannot recommend the story.
抱歉。
I'm sorry.
接下来有请伊利诺伊州的杰瑞。
How about Jerry in Illinois?
杰瑞？
Jerry?
吉姆，我是你CNBC节目的忠实粉丝。
Jim, I'm a big fan of your show in CNBC.
我尽量买入并持有股票。
I try to buy and hold my stock.
但我觉得我买了这只股票。
But I think I purchased the stock.
去年，在他们与英伟达合作之后，我买了这只股票。
Last year, I purchased this stock after they partnered with NVIDIA.
它叫Nvidia，NVTS。
It's called Nvidia, N V T S.
你觉得英伟达是不是
Do you think Nvidia is
这就是那个，女士们先生们，这就是闪电轮的结束。
the one that's that's that's the the that, ladies and glues that's up the lightning round.
这个
The
闪电回合由查尔斯·施瓦布赞助。
lightning round is sponsored by Charles Schwab.
接下来，我们在旧金山之行中学到了一件重要的事情。
Coming up, we've learned one big thing on our trip to San Francisco.
科技领袖们并不害怕人工智能。
Tech leaders don't fear AI.
稍后我们会做个回顾。
We've got a recap next.
吉姆·克莱默。
Jim Cramer.
我是第一次打电话进来，也是俱乐部的开心会员。
I'm a first time caller, a happy club member.
我想感谢你，你是投资界的平民英雄。
I wanna thank you for being the people's champion of investing.
谢谢你帮我成了百万富翁。
Thank you for helping me become a millionaire.
今天结束前，我忍不住要回顾一下我在旧金山度过的那个精彩一周。
I couldn't end today without reflecting back when the great week I had out in San Francisco.
我在西部的时候，人工智能安全是每个人最关心的话题。
While I was out West, AI safety was at the forefront of everyone's minds.
我有一个大问题。
And I had one big question.
我们都会在2030年之前死掉吗？
Are we all gonna die by 2030?
成为恶意人工智能攻击的受害者？
Victims of a hostile artificial intelligence attack?
来看看这些答案。
Take a look at the answers.
我们都会在2030年死掉吗？
Are we all gonna die in 2030?
也许这都不重要了。
Maybe it won't matter.
我们不会在2030年死掉的。
We were not we're not gonna die in 2030.
世界上有很多人会正确地开发AI。
There are so many people in the world who are gonna build AI properly.
我们会设置各种防护措施，发明各种安全技术。
We're gonna have all kinds of guardrails, invent all kinds of technology for safety and security.
这些都在全球范围内发生着。
All of that is happening around the world.
不只是两家公司在做这件事。
It's not just two companies building things.
有成千上万的公司都在做。
There are thousands of companies building things.
所以我们会创造出极其有用的AI。
And so we're gonna we're gonna create AI that's incredibly useful.
它会非常有用，而且会非常安全。
It's gonna be incredibly helpful, and it'll be incredibly safe.
我们可以同时拥有这一切。
We could have all of that at the same time.
我们确实需要认真对待安全问题。
We do need to take safety seriously.
如果这意味着我们必须放慢前沿技术的步伐，那绝对没问题。
And if it means we have to pace the frontier and slow down, absolutely.
我们会听从研究人员的意见，这样做。
We're gonna listen to our researchers and do that.
所以我不认为我们不需要担心安全和对齐问题，但我觉得我们需要以正确的方式去做，保持适度和务实。
And that's why I wouldn't call it, you know, that we don't need to be worried about safety and alignment, but I think we need to do it the right way, to be kind of moderate and pragmatic about it.
保持詹森那样的乐观，但也要务实，认识到这里确实存在真正的风险。
Keep the optimism, which Jensen has, but also be pragmatic about the fact there are real risks here.
我不是那种悲观主义者。
I'm not a a doomerism type guy.
我是个乐观派，我觉得有很多技术，特别是网络安全方面的，能帮助这些智能体不失控。
I'm a the glass is half full, and I think there are plenty of technologies specifically around cybersecurity that can help these agents from going rogue.
而且，你知道，当有人试图预测2030年有10%的概率会发生什么，如果这预测真那么准，他们应该去炒股才对。
And, you know, when someone is trying to come up with these predictions of 10% in 2030, if if if that was so accurate, you know, they should be working on playing the stock market.
我是说，真不知道他们怎么能做出这种预测。
I mean, don't know how you can come up with these sort of predictions.
但我确实知道，智能体是危险的。
What I do know is that the agents are dangerous.
智能体需要被控制。
The agents need to be controlled.
你需要有可见性，并且要能保护你的组织。
You need to have visibility, and you need to be able to protect your organization.
这些都是事实。
All that is true.
但归根结底，智能体做的事情，它们只是被训练过
But at the end of the day, what the agents are doing, they've only been trained
去做的事情。
to do.
AI是一项了不起的技术。
AI is an amazing technology.
我觉得我们面前是一个千载难逢的机会，去拥抱一个将在各个方面都产生巨大影响的东西。
I think what we have in front of us is once in a lifetime opportunity to embrace something that is so gonna be so impactful across the board.
而且我不觉得它会慢下来。
And I don't see how it's gonna slow down.
我不觉得研究人员会不想赢。
I don't see researchers not wanting to win.
就像我说的，在任何竞争性运动中，我都没见过有人说，哦，等等。
As I've said, there's no competitive sport where I found people saying, oh, wait a minute.
让我们一起休息一下，因为我们应该放慢速度。
Let's all take a break together because we should slow it down.
我觉得正确的讨论应该是如何确保AI能够安全可靠地交付，这样我们就能用它做好事。
I think the right conversation is how do you make sure that AI can be delivered safely and securely so we can use it for good things?
这才是该讨论的话题。
That's the conversation to have.
我觉得那种对AI感到恐惧、想停下来等等看的想法，跟现实完全背道而驰。
I think the idea that we should be fearful of AI and we should wait and we should slow down, it's just antithetical to what's gonna happen.
我们知道AI技术潜力巨大，而让它更强大的方式就是给它更多数据。
We know that there's tremendous potential in AI technology, and the way you make it more powerful is you give it more data.
给它更多连接。
You give it more connections.
给它更多算力。
You give it more power.
给它更多能力。
You give more capability.
我希望这一切发生，也希望这些好处能惠及每家公司、每个组织。
And I want that to happen, and I want the benefits to accrue to everyone's company and everyone's organizations.
我希望美国赢。
I want America to win.
我希望全世界都能赢。
I want the world to win.
但要在降低风险的同时做到这一点，唯一的方法就是可视性和控制。
But the only way to do that while also mitigating the risks is visibility and control.
而且我们现在的处境很理想，因为实现可视性和控制的关键在于身份识别。
And we're in a perfect situation because the key to visibility and control is identity.
你必须知道这些智能体在哪里。
You have to know where these agents are.
我们希望AI能处理这些事情，承担责任，采取行动，并且合乎伦理。
We want AI to take care of these things and be held responsible and take care of these actions and be ethical.
而伦理的核心就是责任。
And the heart of ethics is responsibility.
但我们真的把目光投向我们在旧金山以及世界各地的同行，说：我们希望你们在行动中、在照顾社区和世界的方式上合乎伦理，因为这项技术非常强大。
But we really look at a light on our brethren here in San Francisco and all over the world and say, we want you to be ethical in your actions and how you take care of your communities and the world because this technology is very powerful.
它只是一个工具。
It is a tool.
我们用这个工具。
We use that tool.
人们也用这个工具。
People use that tool.
就像任何工具一样，是的，重要的是要对工具的使用进行治理和保障。
And like all any tool, yeah, it's important to put governances, safeguards on how we use the tool.
但归根结底，它仍然是一个工具，能让我们的社会、人类达到更好的生活水平，但它仍然只是一个工具。
But it is still, at the end of the day, a tool that will make, our society, humanity reach a better level of living, but still a tool.
它不是一只会自己乱跑的活生生的动物。
It's not a live animal that will run wild by itself.
我的看法是，最终任何推出产品的公司都需要对质量、可靠性和安全性负责。
My view on it is that ultimately, any company that's putting out a product needs to stand behind the quality, reliability, and safety.
我的意思是，这是基本的要求。
I mean, that's a kind of a fundamental table stakes issue.
公司必须把这件事做好。
Companies need to get it right.
政府也做不到完美。
Governments don't get it right.
15家公司也做不到完美。
15 companies don't get it right.
这就像建公司时要做的基本功。
It's kind of the hygiene of what you're doing building a company.
这些都是年轻的公司，产品开发速度非常快，技术进步也极其迅速。
These are young companies developing products really really fast and the advancements are taking place very very quickly.
这意味着，作为产品公司，你需要通过工程、质量、可靠性和安全来打好基础。
All that means is as a product company, there's the hygiene you put in place through engineering, quality, reliability, safety.
他们会搞定的。
They'll figure it out.
但答案不是大家一起踩刹车，因为我甚至不知道一个产品怎么解决这个问题，而另一个产品又怎么解决。
But the answer is not, let's all collectively tap on the brakes because I don't even know how one product solves that versus another.
安全是一个工程问题。
Safety is an engineering problem.
测试是一个工程问题。
Testing is an engineering problem.
我们应该创造产品，并对其进行适当的测试。
We should create products and properly test them.
如果产品还没准备好发布，那就先留着，继续测试，继续改进，直到它准备好为止。
And if they're not ready to be released, just hold on to it and keep testing it and keep engineering and until it's ready.
我喜欢说，总有一个牛市在某个地方，我保证会努力为你找到它，就在《Map Money》节目里。
I like to say there's always a bull market somewhere, and I promise to try to find it just for you right here on Map Money.
我是吉姆·克莱默。
I'm Jim Cramer.
下次见。
See you next time.
吉姆·克莱默在本播客中表达的所有观点仅代表克莱默个人意见，不代表CNBC或其母公司或关联公司的观点，这些观点可能已在电视、广播、互联网或其他媒体上由克莱默提前发布。
All opinions expressed by Jim Cramer on this podcast are solely Cramer's opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by Cramer on television, radio, Internet, or another medium.
你不应将克莱默表达的任何观点视为对特定投资或特定策略的具体诱导，而应仅视作他个人观点的表达。
You should not treat any opinion expressed by Cramer as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy but only as an expression of his opinion.
克莱默的观点基于他认为可靠的信息，但CNBC及其关联公司或子公司不保证其完整性和准确性，也不应以此为依据。
Cramer's opinions are based upon information he considers reliable but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such.
如此。
Such.
要查看完整的《疯狂金钱》免责声明，请访问cnbc.com/madmoney免责声明。
To view the full mad money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com/madmoney disclaimer.
厌倦了那些花三十秒列举奖项的公司吗？
Getting bored of companies who spend thirty seconds listing their awards?
我们也一样。
So are we.
以下是你真正需要知道的。
Here's what you actually need to know.
Capital.com在Trustpilot上评分为4.6，在TradingView上评分为4.8。
Capital.com is rated 4.6 on Trustpilot and 4.8 on TradingView.
这基于像你一样的真实用户的评价。
That's based on real reviews by people just like you.
加入超过75万使用capital.com的交易者。
Join over 750,000 plus traders who use capital.com.
Capital.com，清晰交易。差价合约涉及高风险，81.31%的零售投资者会亏损。
Capital.com Trade with clarity CFDs involve a high level of risk eighty one point three one percent of retail investors lose money
关于 Bayt 播客
Bayt 提供中文+原文双语音频和字幕，帮助你打破语言障碍，轻松听懂全球优质播客。