Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer 9/28/26

今年这种情况我们已经见过一次又一次了。

We've seen this over and over again this year.

看看现在标普500里股息率最高的五只股票吧。

Just look at the five highest yielders in the S and 500 right now.

我们接下来会进入下单环节。

We'll go into sending orders.

先从VICI Properties开始，股票代码VICI，这是一家房地产投资信托公司，股息率接近8%，相当丰厚。

Start with VICI Properties, VICI, a real estate investment trust with a nearly 8% bountiful yield.

这家公司最初拥有多家赌场下面的房地产。

This is a company that originally owned the real estate under a bunch of casinos.

但多年来，它开始扩展到健康度假村、保龄球馆、水上乐园。

But over the years, it started expanding into wellness resorts, bowling alleys, water parks.

故事变得复杂了。

It became a messier story.

而且今年油价飙升，核心赌场业务看起来也不太妙，这更是雪上加霜。

Doesn't help that the core casino business looks pretty dicey right now with gas prices skyrocketing this year.

现在去拉斯维加斯感觉不是个好时机。

It feels like a bad time to go to Vegas.

与此同时，海滩地产的增长已经慢得像蜗牛爬了。

Meanwhile, beachy properties has seen its growth slow to a crawl.

我们说的是低个位数增长。

We're talking low single digits.

LSD，说真的，这只股票现在唯一能指望的就是它那高达7.9%的收益率。

LSD, really, the only thing this stock is going forward is its sky high 7.9% yield.

但股价今年已经跌了将近18%，这个股息可没提供多少保护，对吧？

But with the stock down nearly 18% year to date, that dividend sure hasn't over much protection, has it?

如果你在股息率6%的时候买了它，那现在你肯定不知道该怎么办了，对吧？

If you bought it when stocks say yield at 6%, well, now you have no idea what to do with now, do you?

收益率第二高的是通用磨坊，包装食品巨头，股息率7.3%。

Second highest yield is General Mills, the packaged food kingpin, 7.3% dividend yield.

上周，通用磨坊公布了稳健的季度业绩，并重申了全年预测。

Last week, Mills reported a solid quarter, reaffirmed its full year forecast.

股价一开始涨了百分之一。

The stock initially rallied one percent response.

这倒说得通，但第二天就跌了2.8%，再隔一天又跌了3.4%。

Makes sense, but then it fell 2.8% the next day and then dropped another 3.4% the day after.

也许华尔街不满意他们没有上调业绩指引。

Now maybe Wall Street didn't like that they failed to raise their guidance.

也许大家是被公司下滑的销售和盈利吓到了，或者是因为它正被高昂的投入成本压得喘不过气来。

Maybe people were turned off by the company's declining sales and earnings or the fact that it's being hammered by high input costs.

而且还有那个似乎没人能解决的GLP-1的长期担忧。

And then there's always the existential GLP dash one concern that no one seems to be able to beat.

最后，通用磨坊的股价上周跌了超过7%。

In the end, General Mills stock fell more than 7% last week.

今年到现在已经跌了28%。

It's down down 28% year to date.

如果你当初买这只曾经的避险股，指望股息能保护你，那你可真是被狠狠教训了一顿。

If you bought this one time safety stock hoping the dividend yield will protect you, well, you have taken a serious beating.

接下来是联合包裹服务公司，UPS，下跌了7%。

Next up, there's United Parcel Services, UPS, 7% you.

这家标志性的快递公司过去四年半一直在走下坡路，一路下跌，被劳资纠纷、失去亚马逊的业务以及来自联邦快递的激烈竞争所困扰，而联邦快递已经证明是更好的运营者，这也是我们告诉CNBC投资俱乐部会员在这里买入的重要原因。

This iconic shipping stock has spent the past four and a half years working its way lower, lower, lower, torn apart by labor disputes, lost Amazon business, and fierce competition from FedEx, which has proven to be a better operator, which is a big reason why we are telling CNBC investing club members to buy it down here.

结果，UPS已经连续三年出现销售额和盈利下滑。

As a result, UPS has been seen falling sales and earnings for three straight years now.

原本预计业务在2026年能稳定下来，但随后伊朗战争爆发，油价飙升，现在美联储又在给经济踩刹车。

The business was finally supposed to stabilize in 2026, but then we got hit with the Iran war that sent oil prices through the roof, and now the Federal Reserve's hitting the brakes on the economy.

股价今年下跌了5%，而7.1%的股息收益率，真是杯水车薪。

Stock's down five percent for the year, and that 7.1% dividend yield, cold comfort.

不如说毫无安慰？

How about no comfort?

标普500中第四高的收益率，太惨了。

The fourth highest yield in the S and P, brutal.

爱迪生国际。

Edison International.

这家总部位于加州的电力公司，股息率是6.8%。

The California based electric utility, 6.8% yield.

这只股票过去一个月下跌了26%，不过几乎全部是因为加州立法机构否决了一项部分保护公用事业免于野火责任的计划。

This one's down 26% over the last month, although nearly all of that's from what happened in the California legislature, which killed a plan to partially protect utilities from wildfire liability.

这不是原因。

That's not it.

那是国际方面的责任。

That is international's fault.

但我觉得，不管股息率多高，押注加州公用事业简直是疯了。

But I think you'd have to be crazy to bet on a California utility or no matter how big the dividend yield might be.

你不能指望加州的立法机构会为所有人做合理的事情。

You can't trust that legislature in California to do the reasonable thing for everybody.

最后，标普500中股息率第五高的股票让我很感兴趣。

Finally, the fifth highest yield in the s p of other is intriguing to me.

那就是卡夫亨氏，另一家标志性的包装食品公司，股息率6.8%。

It's Kraft Heinz, another iconic packaged food company, 6.8% yield.

在这些股息股票中，我确实认为卡夫亨氏的故事最精彩，因为现在由史蒂夫·卡林掌舵，他曾经拆分家乐氏，让股东们大赚了一笔。

Of all these dividend stocks, I do think that Kraft Heinz actually has the best story because it's now run by Steve Kaling, the man who broke up Kellogg and made his shareholders a fortune in the process.

我确实认为他能在卡夫亨氏复制同样的成功。

I actually think he can do the same thing at Kraft Heinz.

不过，他想先把核心业务稳定下来，然后再考虑拆分的事。

Although he wants to get the core business stabilized before even thinking about a breakup.

卡林在广告上投入巨资，想给他的品牌注入新活力，但这可能会给利润带来一些压力。

KL Lane's spending heavily on advertising to breathe new life through his brands, but this could put a little pressure bottom line there.

归根结底，我对卡夫亨氏持乐观态度。

At the end of the day, I'm optimistic about Kraft Heinz.

不过，过去一个月它下跌了8%。

It's dropped 8% over the past month, though.

嘿。

Hey.

那6.8%的收益率到底能给你带来什么保护？

What exactly is that 6.8% yield protecting you from anything?

这些所谓的防御性股票，其实根本没什么安全性可言。

There's simply no safety in these so called safety stocks.

为什么这么说呢？

Why is that?

就像我之前提到的，很大程度上是因为股息股在愤怒的债券市场面前，就像罪人一样被拿捏。

Like I mentioned before, a lot of this comes down to the fact that dividend stocks are sinners in the hands, in the hands of an angry bond market.

现在十年期国债收益率已经超过5.2%，而且华尔街似乎相当确信国债收益率还会继续走高。

Right now, the ten year's paying you more than 5.2%, and Wall Street seems pretty convinced that treasury yields are gonna keep heading higher.

这对高收益股票来说非常不利，因为债券是它们天然的竞争对手。

That's brutal for higher yielding stocks because bonds are their natural competition.

比如说，我给你举个例子。

Let's say you like I'll give you a good one.

比如Realty Income。

Letter o, Realty Income.

这是一家专注于零售的房地产投资信托基金，挺不错的。

It's a fine retail focused real estate investment trust.

每月派息，收益率5.9%。

Pays a monthly dividend, yields 5.9%.

目前这个收益率相比十年期国债来说，确实有不错的溢价。

That yield offers an attractive premium versus the ten year for the moment.

但如果你觉得十年期国债会涨到6%，那这个收益真的不值得再看一眼。

But if you think the ten year's headed to 6%, then really, income's not worth a second look.

难怪这个月它的股价已经跌了将近10%，而且它还是个不错的公司。

No wonder its stock is down nearly 10% so far this month, and it's a good company.

另一个问题是，很多高收益股的增长性不够。

The other issue is that many of the high yielders just don't have enough growth.

有些公司近年来还因为下调盈利预期而出名了。

In some, it's developed reputations for cutting earnings estimates in recent years.

尤其是那家包装食品公司，但不止它一家这样。

That's especially true for that packaged food stock, but they're not alone in this.

如果盈利预期在往下调，谁还在乎高股息率呢？

Who cares about a high dividend yield if the earnings estimates are coming down?

如果情况变得足够糟糕，公司甚至可能会削减股息，而这在国债上是不会发生的。

If things get bad enough, the company might even, yes, cut the dividend, and that's something that doesn't happen with treasuries.

当然，任何时候你买入高收益股票，都需要担心股息被削减的可能性。

Of course, anytime you buy a high yield or you need to worry about the possibility of dividend cut.

通常，超高的收益率表明分红根本无法维持。

Often, super high yields are single that the payout simply can't be maintained.

这些都是真正的危险信号。

They are true red flags.

但最近，这种抽象担忧变得更加现实，因为几家知名公司确实削减了股息，其中包括一些我认为曾公开表示永远不会这样做的公司。

But lately, that abstract concern has become more real as several high profile companies have indeed slashed their dividends, including some that I I think really were on record is never wanting to do it.

金宝汤公司是最新一家，早些时候将其股息削减了36%。此前，该股收益率达到6.6%，我曾以为那个股息是不可动摇的。

The Campbell's company, was the latest cutting its dividend by 36% earlier this For that, the stock had been yielding 6.6%, and I thought that dividend might be sacrosanct.

另一家包装食品公司康尼格拉品牌，其收益率曾超过10%，但在7月份将股息减半，几乎没有例外。

Another packaged food company, ConAgra Brands, was yielding north of 10% for it, cut its dividend in half in July with very few exceptions.

两位数的股息收益率是一个重大危险信号。

Double digit dividend yield is a major red flag.

惠而浦在艰难的房地产市场里挣扎了好几年，五月份干脆完全暂停了分红。

Whirlpool has struggled for years amid a tough housing market and suspended its dividend early entirely in May.

每次发生这种事，都会让人质疑高收益分红股的安全性，以及追求高收益的做法，这我从来都不喜欢。

Every time something like this happens, calls into question the safety of high yielding dividend plays and reaching for yield, which is something I never like to do.

所以，说到底就是这样。

So here's the bottom line.

曾经有一段时间，高收益股是最安全的股票，但现在情况不一样了。

There was a time when high yielders were the ultimate safety stocks, but that's no longer the case.

它们不再是安全股，反而成了市场上最危险的股票之一。

Instead of safety stocks, these have become some of the most dangerous stocks in the market.

安全第一。

Safety first.

我这么说，但在这里，安全是最后一位，买家要小心。

I say it, but in this case, safety last, and buyer beware.

刘易斯和佛罗里达的刘易斯。

Lew and Florida Lew.

你好，克莱默先生。

Hello, mister Cramer.

谢谢。

Thank you.

谢谢。

Thank you.

也谢谢你接听我的电话。

And thank you for taking my call.

非常感谢。

Appreciate it.

我很喜欢你的节目。

I love your show.

你太棒了。

You're fantastic.

谢谢你，卢。

Thank you, Lew.

谢谢。

Thank you.

我我我看了你的节目好多年了，一遍又一遍，真的很有意思。

I I I've been watching you for years over and over, and it's it's just entertaining.

太棒了。

It's fabulous.

那种活力。

The energy.

你太厉害了。

You're terrific.

我还在努力保持那种状态。

I still try to bring it.

你知道，休了一周假，回来又充满电了。

You know, took a week vacation, come back and get charged up again.

最近怎么样？

What's going on?

哦，不错。

Oh, nice.

我的问题是关于百事的。

My question is on Pepsi.

现在所有东西都在下跌。

Everything's down in a drains right now.

对我来说挺有吸引力的，但是，你知道，我得佩服你的天才基因。

It seems attractive to me, but, you know, I have to appreciate your genius gene.

我想说，是的。

And I wanted I yeah.

谢谢，谢谢。

Thank thank you.

我想打电话给你，是关于我——

I wanted to call you regarding I'm

我也这么想，卢。

thinking it did, Lou.

其实我和杰夫·马克斯聊过百事公司的事，他和我一起管理那个教堂信托。

It was a comics I actually had a conversation with Jeff Marks who runs the chapel trust with me about PepsiCo.

我觉得当它跌到5%的时候，也许可以建个仓，这样会有好处。

I felt that it would be beneficial to to when it got to 5%, maybe take a position.

但你看这只股票，今年跌了10%，这说明股息可能保不住，也不能像我以前想的那样起到反弹的作用。

But if you take a look at the stock, what it's telling you is down 10% for the year, that it that the dividend may not preserve or act as trampoline I once thought it would.

为什么？

Why?

自由现金流。

Free to let.

现在这个生意很难做，大家都不想要它。

The business is a tough one right now and people don't want it.

在这些股票里，我唯一看到真正有点起色的是宝洁，因为它跟食品没关系。

The only one of these stocks that I saw that was really having any any luck here is Procter and Gamble, and that's because it has nothing to do with food.

好的。

Alright.

令人意外的是，这些高收益股票现在根本不再提供安全保障了。

Surprisingly, these high yielding stocks just don't offer safety anymore.

实际上，它们是整个市场中最危险的一些公司。

In fact, they're some of the most dangerous companies in the entire market.

还有更多的钱。

Much more money.

要怎样才能让好市多重新振作起来？

What will it take to reignite Costco?

我正在查看最新的季度报告，寻找线索。

I'm taking a look at the latest quarter for clues.

然后，那些唱反调的人又对SpaceX说三道四，我可完全不买账。

Then the naysayers are back for SpaceX, and I'm not having anything of it.

我来给你讲讲我对这家公司如何能继续走高的看法。

I'm giving you my take on how this company could keep powering higher.

还有你所有的来电，都在今晚的闪电回合中快速呈现。

And all you're calls rapid fire in tonight's edition of the lightning round.

所以请继续关注克莱默。

So stay with Cramer.

别让你的小宝贝成为我慈善信托里最让人头疼的名字之一。

To not you're little Make it one of the most bit frustrating names in my charitable trust.

这只股票过去六个月下跌了超过6%。

Stock's down over 6% over the past six months.

而标普500指数却上涨了近21%。

Appear with the S and five hundred is up nearly 21%.

这种表现不佳真是让人难受。

This underperformance is crushing.

所以上周四好市多公布看似强劲的季度业绩，股价上涨近3%时，我松了一口气。

So I was relieved when Costco reported a seemingly strong quarter last Thursday when they sent the stock up nearly 3%.

但尽管续费率有所改善，这个长期令人担忧的问题——会员增长——仍在放缓。

But even though renewal rates improved, a chronic concern, membership growth is still slowing.

对于一家靠会员规模生存的公司来说，这是个重大问题。

And that's a major issue for a company that lives and dies by the size of its membership base.

钱是从卡上赚的。

Makes the money on the card.

别误会我的意思。

Don't get me wrong.

表面数字确实相当亮眼，但好市多的市盈率超过40倍，这意味着这些数字必须几乎完美，尤其是在你可以把钱放在十年期国债上几乎无风险获得5%回报的环境下。

The headline numbers were pretty darn impressive, but Costco sells for more than 40 times earnings, which means the numbers need to be pretty much perfect, especially in an environment where you can collect a 5% return almost risk free by parking your money in a tenure.

另外，在像现在这样的加息环境下，市盈率倍数历来会被压缩。

Plus PE multiples historically get crunched in a rising rate environment like we have now.

我一直持有好市多作为慈善信托的一部分，因为我非常看好他们的商业模式。

Now I've stuck with Costco for the travel trust because I'm a big believer in their business model.

多年来，这个决定是对的。

And for years, that was the right call.

他们提供最划算的商品，因为他们以极大的批量采购相对较少种类的产品。

These guys offer the best bargains out there because they buy a relatively small number of products in extreme bulk.

他们的柯克兰自有品牌非常出色。

Their Kirkland Signature private label brand is incredible.

我觉得好市多的自有品牌在质量和价格上都比名牌产品更胜一筹。

I regard Costco private label as being superior to the branded version, both in quality and on price.

我觉得每年65美元的会员费简直是太划算了。

I think the annual membership fee at $65 is a steal.

顺便说一句，好市多City Visa卡也很划算，返现奖励非常有竞争力。

So is the Costco City Visa card, by the way, which is with some more than competitive cashback rewards.

而且，那里真是个购物的好地方。

Plus, it's just a great place to shop.

我是说，我不知道你最近有没有去过好市多，但当你看到停车场里停满了宝马和奔驰，数量多得惊人，你就会纳闷这股票怎么会这么不景气。

I mean, I don't know if you've to lately a Costco lady, but but when you see the packed parking lot filled with surprising number of beamers and benzos, you wonder how the heck the stock could be such a dud.

那真正的担忧是什么呢？

So what's the real worry here?

好吧。

Alright.

首先，我要该表扬的地方表扬一下。

First, let me give credit where credit is due.

周四晚上，好市多公布了强劲的营收和利润双超预期。

On Thursday night, Costco reported a healthy top and bottom line beat.

盈利增长了15%。

15% earnings worth.

全球会员续费率上升到89.8%，美国和加拿大的续费率从92.2%上升到92.3%。

Worldwide membership renewals increased to 89.8% with The US and Canada rising from 92.2 to 92.3%.

这听起来可能不算什么，但很多投资者一直担心客户留存率下降。

Now that may not sound like much, but a lot of investors have been worried about weaker customer retention.

行政会员年费130美元，是普通卡的两倍，人数达到了创纪录的4230万。

Executive memberships, cost a $130, double the normal card, reached a record 42,300,000 people.

他们现在贡献了75.6%的销售额，因为只要购物够多，行政会员的会费就能回本。

They now account for 75.6% of sales because that executive membership deal pays for itself as long as you do enough shopping.

也许这就是我老婆在那里花那么多钱的原因。

And maybe that that's why my wife spends so much money there.

但是，这里有个大转折，好市多的总会员增长又放缓了。

But in this big but Costco's total membership growth slowed again.

他们结束了这个季度，也就是好市多2026财年的最后一个季度，会员总数达到了8410万。

They finished the quarter, which was the final quarter of Costco's fiscal twenty twenty six with 84,100,000 members.

这比去年同期增长了3.8%。

That's up 3.8% year over year.

这低于预期。

That's below expectations.

2026财年第一季度会员总增长率为5.2%，第二季度为4.8%，第三季度为4.1%。

Total membership growth was 5.2% in the first quarter of fiscal twenty twenty six, 4.8% in the second quarter, and 4.1% in the third quarter.

这确实让人担忧。

That is a disconcerting case.

会员费收入增长了7.3%，达到18.5亿美元，这有点低于预期。

Membership fee income rose 7.3% to $1,850,000,000 That was a little light.

现在，好市多40岁以下的会员基础自疫情以来增长了近60%，目前占总会员数的四分之一以上。

Now Costco's membership base under 40 has grown nearly 60% since COVID, currently representing more than a quarter of the total.

管理层表示，这些年轻会员一开始消费较少，但如果他们留下来，随着时间的推移，他们会成为更大的消费者。

Management says these younger members initially spend less than grow into bigger spenders over time, assuming they stick around.

问题在于怎么留住这些顾客。

The concern is keeping them as customers.

你看，年轻消费者更倾向于在网上注册会员，而网上注册的续费率比实体店注册的要低。

See, younger shoppers are more likely to join online, and online sign ups renew at lower rates than warehouse sign ups.

好市多确实提供超值优惠，但如果你不去店里，大部分优惠你都享受不到。

Costco offers incredible bargains, but you gotta you gotta end up missing most of them if you don't go to the store.

比如我期待从T-Mobile拿到的新苹果手机的好deal。

Like that good deal for new Apple phones that I've expect to get from T Mobile.

我会从T-Mobile通过好市多给我的第二条线，也就是给搭档的那条，如果他们继续像以前那样提供苹果产品的低价。

I'll get my second line and which will be for the duo from T Mobile via Costco if they keep offering low prices for Apple products as they have in the past.

他们的线上业务非常强劲，数字化同店销售额增长了19.5%，网站和App的流量也上升了约30%。

Their web business is very strong with digitally enabled same store sales growing 19.5%, website and app traffic up about 30%.

购物人数也很可观。

Shopping numbers robust too.

总同店销售额增长了9.4%。

Total same store sales rose 9.4%.

华尔街只预期增长9%。

Wall Street was only looking for 9%.

大多数商店都会为这样的数字拼命，但其中很大一部分来自汽油销售。

Most stores would kill for those numbers, but a lot of that was from gasoline.

可比客流量增长了3.3%，而上一季度是2.4%。

Comparable traffic increased 3.3% versus 2.4% in the prior quarter.

调整后的平均客单价也上涨了3.3%。

Adjusted average ticket also rose 3.3%.

这个数字很棒。

Great number.

家居用品、小家电和厨房用具方面表现强劲。

Lots of strength in home furnishings, small appliances, and housewares.

Costco估计，与所在市场的平均汽油价格相比，它为会员节省了超过32亿美元。

Costco estimates it saved members more than $3,200,000,000 versus average gasoline prices in its markets.

他们在加油站赚得很少，但便宜的汽油能吸引顾客。

They make very little money at the pump, but cheap gas brings in customers.

不过，综合来看，会员增长放缓确实是个大问题。

Still, putting it all together, that slowing membership growth is a real problem.

而且我没听到管理层拿出什么有说服力的策略，来吸引那些年轻、习惯线上购物的会员重新活跃起来。

And I am not hearing a convincing strategy from management about how they can get younger online focused members to react.

他们听起来太安逸了，甚至有点自满，好像觉得这个问题自己会解决似的。

They sound too comfortable, complacent even, seem to assume this problem's gonna resolve itself.

你知道吗？

You know what?

如果你要花40倍的市盈率去买这只股票，那光这样可不够。

If you're gonna pay 40 times earnings for stock, that's not enough.

你需要管理层给你一个清晰的计划。

You need management to give you a clear plan.

即使是优秀的公司，当可靠的商业模式开始变化时，也可能被打个措手不及。

Even great companies can get blindsided when a dependable business model starts changing.

他们常常以为那些警示信号会自己消失。

They often assume the warning signs will just disappear.

别误会我的意思。

Don't get me wrong.

我非常尊重好市多，这也是为什么我们仍然为旅行信托持有这只股票。

I have tremendous respect for Costco, which is why we still own this one for the travel trust.

我只是希望他们能更直接地处理会员增长放缓的问题。

I just wish they'd address the membership growth slowing issue more directly.

幸运的是，我觉得有解决办法。

Fortunately, I think there's a solution.

《华尔街日报》最近捕捉到了好市多的寻宝式购物魅力，一位读者进去买卫生纸——那可是他们的畅销品——结果出来时却带了个蹦床。

The Wall Street Journal recently captured Costco's treasure hunt appeal with a reader who went in for toilet paper, look huge seller for them, and left with a trampoline.

好的。

Okay.

这就是我希望年轻一代的线上会员能体验到的感觉。

That's the experience I want younger online members to discover.

好市多可以试试一个简单的方案。

Costco could test a simple offer.

在线注册，然后去店里逛两次，就能拿到一张50美元的返现券。

Sign up online and receive a coupon for a $50 rebate after you visit the warehouse twice.

给人们一个进店的理由，然后看看他们是不是更常来购物，续费率是不是更高。

Give people reason to come through the doors, then measure whether they shop more often and renew at higher rates.

当然，这些激励措施是要花钱的。

Of course, these incentives cost money.

我也不是说它们万无一失。

I'm not saying they're bulletproof.

我的意思是，这只是我的想法，但总得做点什么来留住这些人。

I mean, it's just my plan, but something needs to be done to lock these people down.

让他们愿意留下来。

Get them to commit.

尝尝免费样品。

Taste the free samples.

吃个1.5美元的热狗。

Eat the dollar 50 hot dog.

来一只美味的烤鸡。

Get a delicious roasted chicken.

那些真的很好吃。

Those are really good.

我更希望管理层能拿出一个具体的计划来培养这种习惯，而不是假设年轻会员最终会像他们的父母一样行事。

I'd rather hear management discuss a concrete plan to build that habit than assume that younger members will eventually behave like parents.

公司有商品，这些商品必须有价值。

The company has the merchandise that's got to value.

他们只需要让年轻会员进店，让他们亲眼看看这些商品有多棒。

They just need to get younger members in the store so they can see how terrific they are.

现在，有一个原因，那就是在季度结束后，尽管业绩超出预期，但有八家不同的公司下调了目标价，而只有一家上调了目标价。

Now, there's a reason that after the quarter, eight different firms cut their price targets despite the upside surprise versus just one that raises price target.

这告诉你，市场的期望已经变得多么苛刻。

That tells you how demanding the expectations have become.

一个不错的季度并不自动证明为Costco的盈利支付更高价格是合理的，这与大多数公司不同。

A good quarter doesn't automatically justify paying more for Costco's earnings unlike most companies.

这就是我们投资俱乐部里的那个小妖精。

That's our goblin with the investing club.

但我们拥有我们欣赏的企业，这个季度给了我们留下来的理由。

But we own the business we admire and this quarter gave us reasons to stick around.

但以40倍的市盈率来看，这是一个致命弱点，所以我给这只股票评级为2，持有，适合旅游信托。

But at 40 times earnings, it's an Achilles heel, which is why I rate the stock at two, a whole for the travel trust.

我们把目标价从1100下调到了1050。

And we lowered our price target from 1,100 to 1,050.

现在股价不到923美元，说实话，我可能不会再买了。

At just under $923 a year, frankly, I might as well buy anymore.

也许等到800多，或者管理层给出一个明确的计划来推动会员增长。

Maybe in the 8 hundreds or if management gives us a clear plan to juice membership growth.

这是底线。

Here's the bottom line.

就像已故的伟大的查理·芒格，沃伦·巴菲特的长期合伙人一样，我仍然是好市多的粉丝，但年轻会员需要更强的激励去店里亲自发现那些价值。

Like the late great Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett's old partner, I remain a Costco But younger members need a stronger incentive to make that trip and discover the value that value for themselves.

他们在网上购物时，根本看不到那些超值的便宜货。

When they shop online, they just don't see all the incredible bargains.

他们体验不到那种寻宝的乐趣。

They don't partake in the treasure hunt experience.

如果好市多能给他们更多理由亲自到店，我敢打赌他们会不断回来，股价也会摆脱900多美元的水平，大幅上涨。

If Costco can give them more of a reason to show up in person, I bet they'll keep coming back, and the stock will shake off the 9 hundreds and power much higher.

广告之后，我们马上回来。

That money's back after the break.

接下来，你有问题。

Coming up, you've got questions.

克拉默来解答。

Cramer's got the answers.

准备好迎接下一轮快问快答闪电环节吧。

Get charged up for a fast fire lightning round next.

现在是闪电环节的时间，闪电环节到此结束。

It is time to talk to the Lightning then the Lightning Round is over.

准备好了吗，滑雪？

Are you ready, skiing?

这是闪电环节，我们先从密歇根的肯开始。

That's on the Lightning Let's start with Ken in Michigan.

肯。

Ken.

嘿。

Hey.

吉姆，我是新加入的，但我想感谢你的教导。

Relatively new to the club, Jim, but I wanna thank you for the education.

我今天的问题是超级微电脑，FMCI。

My question today is Super Micro, FMCI.

超级微电脑是个好东西。

Super Micro good think thing.

没错。

That's thing.

A

A

我

I

布莱恩？

Brian?

你好，吉姆。

Hello, Jim.

这是布莱恩，一个自豪的水管工。

That's This isometry Brian and a good proud plumber.

我是布莱恩，我是俱乐部的自豪成员。

This isometry Brian, and I'm a proud club member.

我得告诉大家，你很诚实。

And I gotta tell everybody, you are honest.

你做事有原则，我很自豪能成为你俱乐部的一员。

You handle yourself with integrity, and I am so proud to be a part of your club.

谢谢你。

Thank you.

嗯，你知道，我们说诚信意味着你做到了，但如果你错了呢。

Well, you know, we tell integrity means you got it, but you're wrong.

当我错了的时候，我会举旗示意，当我对的时候也一样。

When I'm wrong, I put a flag up when I'm right.

嘿，那也不错。

Hey, that's good too.

我能帮什么忙？

How can I help?

嗯，你在詹姆斯·库克这件事上是对的。

Well, and you were right on James Cook.

好的。

Alright.

这首歌是对AI驱动的Valvolineux的一个被低估的演绎。

This song is an underappreciated play on AI powered Valvolineux.

积压订单的加速增长非常惊人，产能扩张可能会像Exometry那样带来另一个巨大的盈利机会。

The backlog bookings acceleration is extraordinary, and the capacity expansion could unlock another enormous earnings setup like Exometry.

这就是Fortune Power Solutions。

This is Fortune Power Solutions.

谢谢你，Jim。

Thank you, Jim.

你知道吗，我非常喜欢Fortune Power Systems。

You know, I have the like Fortune Power Systems very much.

我觉得可能有人不喜欢27倍的市盈率，但我支持你，而且我觉得你描述得很好，谢谢你的美言。

I think maybe people don't like yourselves 27 times earnings, but I'm with you and I think you described it very well and I thank you for the kind words.

我们连线纽约的Chris，Chris。

Let's go to Chris in New York, Chris.

嘿，Cramer，最近怎么样？

Hey Cramer, what's up?

最近怎么样。

What's up.

都是关于某人的。

All about somebody.

这就是我想抓住的。

That's why I'm trying to catch.

好的。

Okay.

好的。

Okay.

这家公司确实不错，真的能赚钱，但市盈率也高得离谱，100倍呢。

Now this is a good company actually makes money but it's also 100 times early.

我可不敢碰这种。

I can't get behind anything like that.

我知道市盈率看起来有点高。

Now I know that multiple seems to play a bit.

问题就在这里。

Here's the issue.

再说一次，在利率上升的环境下，昂贵的股票是我不能指望的。

Once again, expensive stock in a rising rate environment is something I can't count.

这个我不能指望。

I can't count this.

它太容易让你吃亏了。

It's too likely to hurt you.

我们连线德州的肯。

Let's go to Ken in Texas.

肯。

Ken.

吉姆，这个周四，当维拉从科迪华分拆出来时，我打算建一个不小的仓位。

Jim this Thursday I'm going to get a significant position in Villar when it spins out of Corteva.

我应该持有

Should I hold

还是应该卖掉？

it or should I get rid of it?

你知道吗？

You know what?

我还没看过那家公司，我得去看看。

I've not looked at that company and I must do that.

我觉得现在说行还是不行太冒险了。

I feel it's just too dicey for me to say yes or no.

让我先做点功课。

Let me do some homework on that one.

回头再告诉你。

Come back to you.

我们接听马萨诸塞州的杰森。

Let's go to Jason in Massachusetts.

杰森。

Jason.

吉姆·克莱默。

Jim Cramer.

超级厄尔尼诺现象可能意味着一个暖冬。

Super El Nino probably means a warm winter.

在与加拿大的贸易战中，这家雪地摩托制造商现在的收益率几乎和十年期国债一样高，达到5.2%。

Amid a trade war with Canada, the snowmobile manufacturer now yields almost as much as a ten year treasury at 5.2%.

北极星公司，吉姆。

Polaris Jim.

不。

No.

北极星，你知道，这是一个很好的例子，说明收益率高是因为它令人担忧。

Polaris, you know, this is a good example of a situation where the yield's high, but that's because it's worrisome.

我不会选择北极星。

And I'm not gonna go with Polaris.

事实上，我会反对北极星。

As a matter of fact, I'm gonna go against Polaris.

我不想碰它。

I don't wanna touch it.

各位先生女士，闪电回合到此结束。

And that ladies and gentlemen is the conclusion of the lightning round.

闪电回合由嘉信理财赞助播出。

The lightning round is sponsored by Charles Schwab.

接下来，克莱默将针对SpaceX的质疑者发表看法，并分析为什么这只股票即将起飞。

Coming up, Cramer's taking aim at SpaceX's doubters and breaking down why the stock is ready to launch next.

加油，吉姆。

Booyah, Jim.

你的正直让你成为华尔街的正义使者。

Your integrity makes you the bullying saint of Wall Street.

加油，吉米·周。

Booyah, Jimmy Choo.

加油，吉米·周。

Booyah, Jimmy Choo.

但是但是但是，加油，吉姆。

But but but booyah, Jim.

四连击，这“booyah”可真不少。

Quadruple, that's a lot of booyahs.

挑刺的人永远没完没了。

The nitpickers never stop.

这个周末，Oracle那边有人跟我较劲，说散户买个股就是一等一的傻瓜。

I got pushed from Oracle this weekend about how retail investors buying individual stocks are first class idiots.

他们真正的意思好像是，在家炒股的人根本没资格买股票。

The real theme seemed to be that home gamers have no right to buy stocks.

要是买了，就都是赌徒，蠢得要命。

If they do, they're all gambling fools.

现在越来越多的人自己选个股，成交量占了所有股票的两成，而以前才一成，作者就觉得这说明投机太严重了。

The fact that more and more individuals are selecting individual stocks, 20% of the volume of all stocks versus 10% not that long ago, indicated to the author that there's just way too much speculation.

他们觉得这些人最好做好心理准备，等着大亏一笔，还觉得他们不老老实实买指数基金真是可惜。

They think these individuals better get ready for some real big losses, and it's a crying shame they don't stick with index funds.

作者还没说完呢。

Author didn't stop there.

作者最大的指责是，散户们蜂拥去买可能是地球上估值最高的股票——SpaceX。

The chief indictment individuals were swarming to buy perhaps the most overvalued stock on Earth, SpaceX.

这个由埃隆·马斯克经营的两万亿美元巨头，还在亏损。

The profitless $2,000,000,000,000 behemoth run by Elon Musk.

作者声称，这就是让散户乱来、不管基本面想买什么就买什么的典型例子。

The author claims it's a classic example what happens when you let individuals run amok and buy anything they want regardless of the fundamentals.

我觉得这纯属胡说。

I'm calling BS.

完全有合理的理由相信，SpaceX的未来可能极其光明。

There are perfectly legitimate reasons to believe that SpaceX could have an incredibly bright future.

我为什么这么说？

What makes me say that?

好，我们先从一些轶事说起。

Well, let's start anecdotally.

先从我刚结束的意大利之行说起吧。

Let's start with my trip to Italy that just concluded.

我们在托斯卡纳有栋房子，除了那个离谱的电费账单，每个月最大的开销就是那个信号不稳、时好时坏、让人抓狂的WiFi账单。

We own this house in Tuscany, and after a completely outrageous electric bill, our next biggest monthly charge has been the spotty, inconsistent, totally maddening WiFi bill.

唉。

Boo.

我们把房子租出去，现在租客都要求电话不断线、网速快，还有能看的电视节目。

We rent the place out, and any renter these days demands uninterrupted phone calls, high speed Internet, and all the cable they can handle.

为了这些，我们每个月付200美元，但效果并不好。

For that, we were paying $200 a month, and it wasn't good.

简直糟透了。

It was terrible.

情况糟糕到我们因为WiFi和电视的问题失去了不少好客户。

It got so bad that we were losing valued customers because of the ridiculous WiFi cable situation.

是的。

Yes.

这对人们来说就是这么重要。

It's that important to people.

不能再这样下去了。

It can't keep going down.

我们反复向所有愿意听的人抱怨，尽管语言障碍严重，最终还是让他们明白了。

We complained repeatedly to anyone who would listen somehow despite the egregious language barrier got through to them.

因为有一天，一个穿着制服、代表星链的人出现了，告诉我们只需50美元就能得到我们想要的一切。

Because one day, a man in uniform who represented Starlink showed up and told us that we could get everything we wanted for $50.

我有点怀疑。

I was dubious.

房子不错。

Nice house.

他们要钻多少洞？

How much drilling they gonna do?

会有多难看？

How unsightly?

直到最近这次旅行，我才发现卫星天线藏在哪里，藏在树林深处。

It was only on this latest trip that I even found where the satellite dish was hidden, deep in the woods.

每个月省150美元其实没那么重要，重要的是留住付费客户。

Saving a $150 a month wasn't really as important as keeping paying clients.

这点代价不算什么，而且速度真的很快。

Small price to pay, and man, is it fast.

回家路上，我知道这趟要飞8个半小时，这期间书和节目都下载好了。

Coming home, I knew I had an 8.5 trip, and I had eight and a half hours where the books and shows all downloaded.

我真正想看的只是NFL橄榄球赛，而不是那种文字直播。

All I really wanted was to watch the NFL football games and not that game cast version.

幸运的是，过去十天里，航空公司不知怎么装上了星链。

Luckily, somehow in the last ten days, the airline had gotten starling.

突然之间，每场比赛都能流畅地看直播了。

Suddenly, was they lose with flying football every game.

我都不想下飞机，至少得看到牛仔队被打败才行。

I didn't wanna get off the plane until at least I saw that the cowboys were beaten.

我知道我的经历不代表所有人，但星链确实是一项了不起的服务。

Now I know that my experience won't be everyone's experience, but Starlink's an incredible service.

这是我最喜欢的SpaceX的部分，即使它不是最重要的部分。

It's my favorite part of SpaceX, even if it's not the most important part.

购买大量NVIDIA GPU这个更实质性的商业决策已经开始见效了。

The more substantive business decision to buy a huge number of GPUs from NVIDIA is already paying off.

埃隆·马斯克以每年110亿美元的速度把GPU租给谷歌，而且他和Anthropic也有类似的协议，从十月份开始，每年150亿美元。

As Elon Musk is renting them out to Google at an $11,000,000,000 a year run rate, and he has a similar deal with Anthropic at a $15,000,000,000 run rate starting in October.

光是出租这些算力，每个月就能进账21.7亿美元，这全靠马斯克当初有远见，知道要买这些GPU。

That's $2,170,000,000 a month just for renting out some compute that Elon Musk had the vision to know to buy.

但是，还有更多。

But wait, there's more.

当马斯克刚开始谈论把数据中心放到太空时，我觉得那只是个笑话。

When Musk first started talking about putting a data center in space, I mean, was a laugh line.

不过上周，黄仁勋在接受《纽约时报》的Ezra Klein采访时说，电力太重要、太贵了，他们可能真的得认真考虑这些轨道数据中心。

Last week though, Jensen Huang in an interview with New York Times Ezra Klein, he said power is so important, so expensive, they maybe gotta take these orbital data centers seriously.

我知道这听起来很疯狂，但黄仁勋随口一提的方式让我觉得，那些怀疑者最后可能会自打嘴巴。

I know it sounds crazy, but the way Jensen casually mentioned it made me feel like the doubters will be the ones with egg on their faces.

当然。

Sure.

你需要很多火箭，但SpaceX今天刚把一艘新的星舰送入轨道，部署了26颗星链卫星。

You'll need a bunch of rockets, but SpaceX just launched a new Starship into orbit today where it deployed 26 Starlink satellites.

还有谁能做到？

Who else could do that?

我觉得马斯克真正的赢家会是类人机器人，但那是特斯拉的业务。

I think the real win for Musk will be humanoid robots, but that's Tesla's business.

不过，没有什么能阻止他把特斯拉和SpaceX合并。

Still, though, there's nothing stopping him from merging Tesla with SpaceX.

你可以说我是个乐观主义者，但合并后的公司将来可能会赚很多钱。

Call me an optimist, but the combined company could end up making a lot of money someday.

电动无人驾驶汽车、机器人出租车和电池都可能是长期赢家，但都比不上机器人。

The electric driverless cars, the robotaxis, and the batteries all could be long term wins, but nothing on the order of robots.

我读过很多关于机器人可能每台售价高达两万美元的报道。

I read lots of stories about how robots could cost as much as 20,000 a piece.

不过，我毫不怀疑马斯克会把价格压下来。

However, I have no doubt that Elon Musk will drive that price down.

可租用的GPU、火箭、星链、机器人、无人驾驶电动车、比大多数电池续航更久的电池。

GPUs for hire, rockets, starlink, robots, driverless electric cars, batteries that can hold charges longer than most.

谁知道这些加起来值多少钱？

Who knows what that's all worth?

但我可以告诉你，任何认为它不可能比现在的售价高得多的人，都太小看它了。

But I can tell you this, anyone who thinks that it can't be worth much, much more than it sells for at least, is thinking too small.

只要有耐心和长远的眼光，想象这家公司的股价大幅上涨并不是异想天开。

It's not reckless to imagine a much higher stock price for this company if you have patience and a longer term vision.

这并不意味着你现在就得买SpaceX的股票。

Doesn't mean you need to buy SpaceX now.

未来一年还会有大量限售股进入市场。

There's still a ton of restricted stock that'll be hitting the market over the next year.

但这家公司本身很好，而且会越来越好。

But the business, it's good, and it will only get better over time.

一如既往，牛市里，我的一些合作伙伴就在周一中午为你服务。

I'd to say as always, the bull market, some of my partners are just for you right here on Mid Monday.

我是吉姆·克莱默。

I'm Jim Cramer.

明天见。

See you tomorrow.

吉姆·克莱默在本播客中表达的所有观点仅代表克莱默个人意见，不代表CNBC或其母公司或关联公司的观点，这些观点可能已在电视、广播、互联网或其他媒体上发布过。

All opinions expressed by Jim Cramer on this podcast are solely Cramer's opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by Cramer on television, radio, internet, or another medium.

你不应将克莱默表达的任何观点视为对特定投资或特定策略的具体诱导，而应仅视为他个人意见的表达。

You should not treat any opinion expressed by Cramer as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy but only as an expression of his opinion.

克莱默的观点基于他认为可靠的信息，但CNBC及其关联公司或子公司不保证其完整性或准确性，也不应依赖这些观点。

Cramer's opinions are based upon information he considers reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such.

要查看完整的《疯狂金钱》免责声明，请访问cnbc.com/mad-moneydisclaimer。

To view the full mad money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com forward slash mad money disclaimer.

从油价到房价，从政府支出到消费者支出，从人工智能热潮到数据中心争议，这次选举将如何影响你的钱包和投资组合？

From gas prices to housing prices, from government spending to consumer spending, from the AI boom to the data center backlash, how will this election hit your pocketbook and your portfolio?

继续报道经济与选举，CNBC。

Continuing coverage, the economy election, CNBC.