Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer 9/4/26

他们从投资者那里收取费用，也就是像你这样的人。

They collect fees from their investors, people like you.

他们赚多少钱完全取决于他们管理的资产规模，这意味着他们最大的动力不一定是提供好的业绩。

And the amount of money they make depends entirely on the size of their assets under management, which means their biggest incentive is not necessarily to deliver good performance.

不是的。

No.

他们真正擅长并且因此获得报酬的是募资。

What they're really being good at and what they get paid for is to fundraise.

这就是为什么一项又一项研究，一年又一年地表明，绝大多数主动管理型共同基金经理的表现都不如他们的基准。

And that's part of the reason why in study after study after study, year after year after year, it's been shown that the vast majority of actively managed mutual fund managers underperform their benchmarks.

换句话说，如果你投资一个主动管理型的大盘美国股票基金，它的表现很可能会低于标普500指数。

In other words, if you invest in an actively managed fund for large cap US stocks, then its performance will probably fall short of the S and P 500.

更糟糕的是，尽管持续跑输市场，主动管理型共同基金仍然收取业内最高的费用之一。

To make matters worse, despite consistently underperforming the market, actively managed mutual funds still have some of the highest fees in the business.

所以即使你的基金确实跑赢了基准，超额收益也很可能被高额管理费吞噬，最终你得到的投资回报还不如一个跟踪标普500的廉价指数基金。

So even if your fund does manage to beat its benchmark, the odds are good that any outperformance will be eaten up by big management fees and you'll end up with an investment that makes you less money than a cheap index fund that mirrors the S and P 500.

这行业可真有意思。

That's some industry.

这生意可比那个有趣多了。

That's fun business much more synchronous with.

我家那笔钱，扣掉所有费用后，年化收益率是24%，而同期标普500只有8%。

At my family compounded 24% annually after all fees versus 8% for the S and P over the same period.

对，我每分每秒都在琢磨那些费用，甚至在一年里我只涨了几个百分点、而大盘表现强劲的时候，我干脆选择不收管理费。

Yeah, I faded every second about those fees and even chose not to take them during a year where I was only up a couple percent versus a strong performance for the averages.

是的。

Yes.

我当时觉得特别丢人。

I was that ashamed.

共同基金经理会为你这么做吗？

Did mutual fund manager ever do that for you?

你可以在《街头骗子的自白》里读到所有细节。

You can read all about it in confessions of a street act.

我的自白书，可以说是，我的过度自白自传。

My tell all, let's say, my tell too much autobiography.

现在我要说的是，并不是所有主动管理型共同基金都不好。

Now here's the part where I'm I say not all actively managed mutual funds are bad.

有些基金有非常出色的经理，他们持续带来优异的业绩。

Some of them have fabulous managers who consistently deliver terrific results.

但即便如此，这里也有一个大问题。

But even here, there's a major problem.

当一只共同基金长期表现优异时，如果经理是个正派的人，他们就会停止接受新投资，因为一旦规模太大，就不可能再产生同样的收益。

When a mutual fund delivers great results for a long period of time, if the manager is a decent person, they'll stop accepting new investments because once they get too big, it's impossible to generate the same kind of gains.

所以有很多这样高质量的基金存在，但它们不再接受新资金。

So a lot of these high quality funds are out there, but they don't take new money.

而如果经理不是那么正派，他们就会不断吸纳更多资金，直到业绩开始下滑，最终损害你的利益。

And if the managers are not so great person, they'll keep taking more and more money until the performance starts to suffer hurting you.

已故的伟大人物约翰·博格尔，他是指数基金之父，曾问我，在我的对冲基金里，我是如何能如此持续地跑赢市场平均水平的。

When the late great john Bogle, he's the father of the index fund asked me how I could beat the averages so consistently at my hedge fund.

我说我限制了投资者的人数。

I said that I limited my investors.

我把它弄得像个俱乐部，你得被提名才能加入。

I made it like a club where you had to be nominated to get in.

这意味着我永远不会被新资金淹没，而新资金过多往往会导致糟糕的投资决策。

That meant I was never overwhelmed with new money, something that often leads to bad investment decisions.

博格尔表扬了我。

Bogle praised me.

我不得不承认我确实很喜欢，他说如果每个人都这么做，他们的业绩记录也会好得多。

I have to admit I did love that and said that if everyone did that, they'd have much better records too.

也许这才是我的对冲基金多年跑赢市场的真正秘诀。

And maybe that was the real secret to my hedge funds multi year outperformance.

顺便说一句，如果你想知道成功的其他秘诀，那还是我们在投资俱乐部教的内容。

By the way, if you want to know the other secrets to that success, again, that's what we teach at the investing club.

但回到主动管理型共同基金的话题。

But back to actively managed mutual funds.

大多数情况下，它们不值得投资。

For the most part, they're not worth it.

费用太高，而且大量基金表现不佳的证据实在太多了。

The fees are too high, and the evidence that the bulk of them underperform is just too staggering.

老观众都知道，我认为最好的策略是把低费用指数基金和你自己挑选的个股组合搭配起来。

Regular viewers know that I think your best strategy is to pair a low fee index fund with a portfolio of individual stocks that you picked yourself.

这就是我每晚反复讲、不断向俱乐部会员灌输的内容。

That's what I talk about night after night and preach endlessly to club members.

但如果你没有时间研究个股，或者你的401k计划不允许你这么做，让我告诉你投资共同基金的聪明方法。

But for those of you who don't have the time to do to research individual companies or if your four zero one k plans just won't let you do it, let me tell you the smart way to invest in mutual funds.

理想情况下，你想要一个便宜、低成本的指数基金，它反映整个市场，比如跟踪标准普尔500指数的基金。

Ideally, you want a cheap, low cost index fund that mirrors the market as a whole, one that mimics the Standard and Poor's 500.

指数基金的费用极低。

Index funds have ultra low fees.

有了标普500指数基金，你就能参与市场的强势表现，而不用花时间挑选个股。

And with an S and P index fund, you've got a vehicle that lets you participate in the strength of the market without having to spend the time picking individual stocks.

记住，把钱投到共同基金里的全部意义，就是为了省下你自己管理股票投资组合所需的时间和精力。

Remember, the whole point of putting your money in a mutual fund is to save you the time and effort required to manage your own portfolio stocks.

所以我觉得，当人们开始持有好几只共同基金的时候，那真是疯了。

That's why I think it's insane when people start owning multiple mutual funds.

从本质上讲，基金本身就应该是分散投资的。

By its very nature, funds should be diversified.

我知道市面上有很多行业基金和ETF，但像你这样的普通投资者，真的没必要碰那些。

Now I know there are lots of sector based mutual funds and ETFs out there, but there's really no reason for home gamers like you to have any exposure to those.

如果你打算花时间去琢磨某个行业，那还不如把时间花在挑选个股上。

If you're going to take the time to try to play individual sectors, that time would be much better spent picking individual stocks.

至于ETF，大多数情况下，它们是用来交易的，不是用来投资的。

As for ETFs, in most cases, these vehicles are for trading, not investing.

我不赞成交易。

I'm not in favor of trade.

很多ETF每天都会重新平衡，这对长期表现来说，影响真的很大。

Many ETFs rebalance every day, and that can take a real toll on any kind of long term performance.

即使你看对了方向，也可能亏很多钱。

You can lose a lot of money even if you're right.

当然，这里也有很多例外，比如GLD，我就挺喜欢这个ETF的。

Of course, there are plenty of exceptions here too, like the GLD, which I like the ETF.

这是投资黄金的简单方式。

It's a simple way to play gold.

还有那些跟踪标普500的ETF，我也很喜欢。

And I like the test, of course, that mimic the S and 500.

但总的来说，如果你不是专业人士，也没有在管理个股投资组合，那对这些东西就应该非常小心，别随便碰。

But in general, if you're not a pro and you're not managing portfolio of individual stocks, then you should be very careful about fooling around with most of this stuff.

说到底就是这么回事。

Here's the bottom line.

归根结底，我觉得一个便宜的标普500指数基金，是让你被动管理资金最不差的方式，比绝大多数主动管理型共同基金都要好。

At the end of the day, I think a cheap S and P 500 index fund is the least bad way to passively manage your money better than the vast bulk of actively managed mutual funds.

但指数基金什么都会持有，好的、坏的、丑的，全都包括。

But an index fund owns everything, the good, the bad, the ugly.

而且你确实有时间去做功课。

And you do have the time to do your homework.

我相信你自己选股，把那些不好的和难看的排除掉，就能跑赢指数基金。

I believe you can beat the performance of an index fund by picking stocks yourself, maybe leaving the bad and the ugly out of it.

如果你现在没时间，那就坚持用指数基金，或者加入投资俱乐部。

Now if you don't have the time now, stick with the index fund or and join the investing club.

我们会帮你做功课。

We will help you do the homework.

功课。

Homework.

我们接听田纳西州埃里克的电话。

Let's go to Eric in Tennessee.

埃里克。

Eric.

嘿，吉姆。

Hey, Jim.

我是来自帕克城的埃里克。

This is Eric from Park City.

我的问题是关于股票的基本面估值。

My question is in regard to fundamental valuation of a stock.

如果你只能看四个指标来评估，你会选哪四个指标来看？

If you could only had access, if you only had access to four indicators to examine, what four measurements would you choose to look at?

好的。

Okay.

我会看销售额。

I would look at sales.

我会看盈利。

I would look at earnings.

我会看利润率。

I would look at margins.

我会看总可寻址市场，看看潜力有多大。

I would look at total the total addressable market, see how things could be.

如果只是告诉我这是某家公司，这些指标就能让我有个大概的了解。

All those will give me exactly if you just told me it was x y z corp.

只要手头有一些历史数据，我就能告诉你我大概会怎么想。

I can give you a sense of what I'd be thinking provide I had some historical data ahead of me.

我们接听加州佩罗斯的来电。

Let's go to Perroz in California.

佩罗斯。

Perroz.

嗨，吉姆。

Hey Jim.

我只是想感谢你的节目。

Just wanted to thank you every for your show.

对我来说，跟着你一起了解市场，真的是一次很棒的学习经历。

It's been a great, learning experience for me, navigating the markets with you.

非常感谢。

Thank you so much.

是的，我想说。

Wanted to yeah.

不客气。

You're welcome.

真的很感谢。

Really appreciate it.

所以我想问你一个问题。

So I just wanted to ask you a question here.

我知道乔·特拉诺瓦是你的好朋友，我非常重视基本面和技术分析，并且用这两者来做投资决策。

I know Joe Terra Nova is a huge friend of yours, and I'm I'm huge on fundamental and technical analysis and use them both to make my investment decisions.

所以我的问题是，即使公司基本面表现强劲，是否也应该结合技术分析呢？

So my question is, even though the company is showing strong fundamentals, is it a good idea to incorporate technical analysis as well?

当然。

Always.

我觉得一切都应该考虑进去。

I think everything should be included.

我来告诉你为什么。

I'll tell you why.

因为无论是什么在做决策，很多大型基金经理都会用这些决策，而且他们会用技术分析，这意味着你也应该把它们纳入你的思考中。

Because whatever makes decisions and a lot of big fund managers use those decisions and they use technicals means that you should include them into your thinking too.

即使你认为不应该，所有可用的好信息都应该进入你的决策过程，包括技术分析。

Even if you think they shouldn't, all available information that is good should go into your decision making, technical analysis.

好的。

Alright.

指数基金什么都有，好的、坏的、丑的。

An index fund owns everything, the good, the bad, and the ugly.

所以如果你确实有时间自己做功课，我相信你可以通过自己选股来跑赢指数。

So if you do have the time to do your own homework, I believe you can beat the performance of an index by picking stocks yourself.

更有《疯狂金钱》艾德的味道。

Much more Mad Money Ed.

我要给你讲讲从大学到退休的财务安全保障。

I'm giving you the lowdown on financial security from college all the way to retirement.

稍后，我的同事杰夫·马克斯会加入我，回答你们更迫切的问题。

And later, my colleague, Jeff Marks, will join me to answer some of your more burning questions.

所以请继续锁定克莱默的节目。

So stay with Cramer.

无论你选股多厉害，如果你不了解那些复杂的规则，比如该把钱放在哪种账户里，或者怎么管理个人财务，或者怎么在人生重大开销上花最少的钱获得最大的回报，那你可能会错过一些巨大的收益，或者因为隐藏费用而损失一大笔钱。

No matter how good you are at picking stocks, if you don't know the Byzantine rules about what kind of accounts to keep your money in or how to manage your personal finances, or how to get the most bang for your buck when it comes to major lifetime expenses, then you could be missing out on some terrific gains or losing a fortune to hidden fees.

我承认，这类事情不像选股那么有趣。

I admit this kind of stuff isn't as fun as picking stocks.

你知道，就像选股那样。

You know, like picking stocks.

但在你的一生中，它真的能帮你积累比几次漂亮的选股更多的财富。

But over the course of your lifetime, it really can help you build up more wealth than a couple of great stock picks.

而且事实很简单，我不想让你白白把钱留在桌上，只是因为没人愿意费心给你解释，比如退休投资的那些细节。

And the simple truth is that I don't want you leaving the money on the table just because nobody could be bothered to explain it to you, say the finer points of retirement investing.

考虑到这一点，让我来解释一下，你是该用传统的401(k)还是IRA，还是选择罗斯IRA——这个术语我相信你已经听过无数次了。

With that in mind, let me explain whether it makes sense for you to use a regular four zero one k or an IRA, or for you to go with a Roth IRA, which is a term I'm sure you've heard countless times.

我知道我已经没完没了地讲过个人退休账户，也就是IRA，还有401k计划的好处了。

Now I know I've talked endlessly about the benefits of using the individual retirement account or the IRA for short, and a four zero one k plan to invest for retirement.

我不想在这里老调重弹。

I don't wanna beat a dead horse here.

但这个问题我每天都会收到大量提问。

But this is a subject I get a ton of questions about every day.

我该把钱放进罗斯IRA账户还是普通账户呢？

Should I put my money in a Roth IRA account or a regular one?

我们先从罗斯IRA说起，只要年收入低于15.3万美元，任何人都可以往里存钱。

Let's start with the Roth IRA, which anyone can contribute to as long as they make less than a $153,000 a year.

我觉得，除了劳动所得税抵免和疫情期间的临时刺激措施，罗斯IRA可能是自反贫困战争结束以来，政府为低收入家庭做的最好的事情了，那场战争充其量也就是打了个平手，贫困可能还略占上风。

I think that aside from the earned income tax credit and all the temporary COVID stimulus, the Roth IRA may be the single greatest thing our government has done for low income families since the end of the war on poverty, which at best end in a draw with poverty possibly waiting on points.

如果我是森林之王，我会把IRA的投资限额设成和401k一样。

If I were the king of the forest, I'd make the limits for the IRA investing the same as the limits for four zero one k.

这将会是我今年余下时间的一个主题。

That's gonna be a theme of mine for the rest of the year.

这太荒谬了，居然不是这样。

It's ridiculous that they aren't.

但行业似乎并不在意，因为他们从401k计划中赚的钱多得多。

But the industry doesn't seem to care because they make a lot more money off of four zero one k plans.

我找不到其他原因，为什么你能往IRA里存的钱大约是401k的三倍。

There's no other reason I can find for why you can contribute roughly three times as much money to an IRA.

抱歉，是往401k里存的钱是IRA的三倍。

I'm sorry, to a four zero one k as an IRA.

401k是IRA的三倍。

Three times four zero one k over an IRA.

我们需要让人们至少能存100，比如说，这样怎么样？

We need to allow people to put at least a 100 let's say, how about this?

你每年往IRA里存1万美元，这比目前的限额高很多，甚至比1975年刚开始设立这些账户时，按通胀调整后的初始缴款限额还要高一点。

You put $10,000 in IRA per year, much more in the current cap and even a little higher than what the contribution limit would have been if you just started these accounts in 1975 and adjusted the initial guidelines for inflation.

是的。

Yes.

我主张一万美金，不然就拉倒。

I'm championing $10,000 or bust.

在这件事上我是站在你这边的，不达目的我绝不罢休。

I am your friend on this, and I will not stop until we get it.

我之前跟你们说过，普通IRA让你用税前收入投资，然后收益可以年复一年、十年又十年地复利增长，完全免税，直到你退休后开始取钱为止。

I told you all about our regular IRA, lets you take pretax income, invest it, and then your gains can compound year after year, decade after decade, totally tax free until you decide to start withdrawing money once you retire.

但罗斯IRA就不一样了。

But a Roth IRA, that works differently.

罗斯IRA是用税后收入来缴款的。

With a Roth, you make contributions using after tax income.

所以换句话说，跟普通IRA不同，往罗斯IRA里存钱不会减少你的税单，至少一开始不会。

So in other words, unlike a regular IRA, putting money into a Roth won't decrease your tax bill, at least not upfront.

但另一方面，一旦你的钱进了罗斯IRA，以后就再也不用交税了。

On the other hand, once your money's in a Roth IRA, you'll never pay taxes on it again.

只要你的钱还在账户里。

As long as your cash remains in the account.

你不需要交资本利得税。

You don't pay capital gains tax.

你也不需要交股息税。

You don't pay dividend tax.

而且当你取钱的时候——我应该说，59岁半之后取钱是没有罚款的——你取出来的钱也不用交任何所得税。

And when you withdraw it, which you can do without penalty after the age of 59 and 59.5, I should say, you don't pay any income tax on your withdrawals.

一分都不用。

None.

基本上，罗斯IRA就是现在交税，这样你退休后三四十年就不用再交任何所得税了。

Basically, the Roth, you pay taxes now, so you don't have to pay any income tax thirty or forty years from now when you're retired.

罗斯IRA还有一个好处。

There's one more positive point about a Roth.

五年之后，你可以取出你投入的本金，不是收益，只是你投入的那部分，而且不会被罚10%，而如果你在59岁半之前从普通IRA取钱，就会面临这个罚款。

After five years, you can withdraw the money you've invested, not your gains, just the amount you contributed, and you won't get hit with a 10% penalty, which is what happens when you try to withdraw money from a regular RA before you hit that magic age of 59.5.

这和普通IRA非常非常不同，普通IRA是现在投入的钱不用交税，账户里的收益也不用交税。

That's a very that's very, very different from a regular IRA, where you don't pay any taxes on your contributions now, and your gains don't get taxed within the account.

但是一旦你开始取钱，每一分钱都要交税，而且是按普通收入来交税。这意味着，当你在决定选罗斯IRA还是401k，还是普通IRA或401k的时候，你得想清楚，是现在交税用罗斯账户更划算，还是等退休后再交税用普通账户更划算。

But once you start withdrawing the money, every penny you take out is taxed, and it's taxed at ordinary income, which means that when you're trying to decide between a Roth IRA or a four zero one k and a regular IRA or a four zero one k, you need to determine whether it makes more sense to pay income tax now with a Roth or to wait and pay income tax once you've retired with a regular account.

简单来说，你就是在判断，退休后你的税率档位是更高还是更低。

In short, you're trying to figure out whether you'll be in a higher tax bracket if you retired or lower one.

显然，这个问题很复杂，很大程度上取决于你的具体情况、职业，还有你的年龄。

Obviously, is really a complicated question that has a lot to do with the specifics of your situation, your career, and simply how old you are.

但我的快速判断标准是，如果你的边际税率在22%或以下——这适用于大多数美国人——我觉得你就选罗斯账户。

But my quick rule of thumb for anyone whose marginal tax rate is 22% or less, which is most of America, I think you'd go with a Roth.

宁可现在先交税，也别让罗斯IRA白白错过终身免税复利的机会。

Better to take the hit upfront than allow your Roth IRA to compound tax free for the rest of your life.

记住，如果你没时间自己挑选一个包含5到10只股票的多样化投资组合，最明智的做法就是把退休金放在一个跟踪标普500指数的低成本指数基金里。随着年龄增长，你可以加一些债券，但说实话，在真正退休之前，股票应该占你退休投资的绝大部分。

Remember, for those of you who don't have the time to pick your own diversified portfolio of five to 10 stocks, the smartest thing you do is just park your retirement money in a low cost income fund that mirrors the S and P five As you get older, you can add some bonds, but really until you actually retire, stocks should make up the lion's share of your retirement investments.

我知道我以前说过这个，但我会一直重复，直到他们不让我上节目为止，因为这太重要了。

I know I've said this before, but I'll keep repeating it until they kick me off the air because it's so necessary.

这跟传统观念太不一样了。

It's so contrary to the conventional wisdom.

那罗斯401(k)呢？

How about a Roth four zero one k?

好的。

Alright.

这个和罗斯IRA的运作方式一样。

This one works just like a Roth IRA.

也就是说，你用税后收入缴款，之后这笔钱就再也不用交税了。

Meaning, you make contributions with after tax income, and then you never pay taxes on that money again.

不过因为它是401(k)计划，所以它的缴款上限比IRA要高得多。

Except because it's a four one k plan, it has of, yes, again, a much higher contribution limit than an IRA.

还有一个很大的不同点。

There's one other big difference.

和罗斯IRA不同，罗斯401(k)没有任何收入限制。

Unlike a Roth IRA, a Roth four zero one k doesn't have any kinds of means testing.

不管你赚多少钱，只要你的雇主决定提供这个选项，你都可以享受罗斯401(k)的好处。

No matter how much money you earn, you can take advantage of a Roth four zero one k as long as your employer decides to give you the option.

当然，所有这些决定都取决于你对未来的看法。

Of course, all these decisions depend on what you think the future will look like.

如果你认为税率在你的一生中最终会大幅上升，那么罗斯401k——现在交税、将来不用交税——就是正确的选择，即使你现在收入很高。

If you believe the taxes are headed ultimately hot up, much higher over the course of your lifetime, then a Roth four zero one k where you pay your taxes now and pay nothing in the future is the way to go, even if you're making a lot of money in the present.

但归根结底，这既超出我们的控制，也超出我们的预测能力。

At the end of the day though, this is both beyond our control and beyond our ability to predict.

底线是，你现在的收入越低，你的税率就越低。

The bottom line, the lower your present income, then the lower your tax rate.

罗斯401k或罗斯IRA让你现在按低税率交税，退休后就不用再为这笔钱担心税务问题了。

A Roth four four zero one k or Roth IRA lets you pay those low rates now and never worry about taxes again for your retirement money.

所以，你赚得越少，罗斯账户就越适合你。

So the less money you make, the more likely that a Roth is for you.

就这么简单。

It's that simple.

而且，在为退休储蓄时，不要担心三四十年后可能发生的灾难性情况。

And when you're saving for retirement, don't worry about what could go catastrophically wrong thirty or forty years in the future.

只要专注于现在做出最好的选择就行了。

Just worry about making the best choices right now.

广告之后，Mad Money 节目继续。

Mad Money is back after the break.

最近，我们听到了很多关于学生贷款沉重负担的讨论。

Lately, we've heard a lot about the crushing burden of student loans.

以及政府应该或不应该做些什么来减轻这种负担。

And what the government should or shouldn't do, make some of that burden go away.

疫情期间，我们经历了几年的还款暂停期，这有助于刺激经济。

We lived through a years long moratorium on repayments during the pandemic, which helps supercharge the economy.

一项又一项的研究表明，毕业时没有债务的学生，最终比那些还有学生贷款余额的同学要富有得多。

In study after study, kids who graduate with no debt end up being worth a lot more money than their classmates who have outstanding student loan balances.

不过，就像我之前说的，学生债务比信用卡债务便宜得多。

Although, as I said before, student debt is a heck of a lot cheaper than credit card debt.

所以真的不用太担心这个计划。

So it really don't sweat the program too much.

问题在于，学生贷款实在太多了，而且破产也没法免除。

Problem here is that it's simply that there's so darn much of it, and you can't get rid of it in bankruptcy.

所以，如果你现在是父母，或者打算成为父母，我现在就告诉你，能为孩子未来做的最好的事情之一，就是尽可能多地帮他们支付大学学费。

So for any of you who are parents or think of becoming parents, let me just tell you right now that there are very few things you can do for your kid's future that are better than paying for as much of their college education as you can afford.

当然，如果我要列一个马斯洛式的财务需求层次，我会说，为自己退休储蓄和投资更重要，这也是我在节目早些时候讲过的。

Of course, if I were to make a kind of a Maslow style hierarchy of financial needs, I tell you that's more important for you to save and invest for retirement, which is why I talked about how earlier in the show.

为什么要把自己放在孩子前面？

Why prioritize yourself over your children?

很简单。

Simple.

因为如果你没有退休金，你觉得谁会来养你？

Because if you don't have that retirement money, who do you think is gonna support you?

孩子吗？

The kids?

如果你想要孙子孙女，你就得有退休金。

If ever want grandchildren, you'll need a retirement fund.

否则，你的孩子就得花大把时间来照顾你了。

Otherwise, your children will spend ages taking care of you instead.

不过，等你每年都存够了退休金，接下来就该考虑孩子的大学教育了，哪怕孩子还只是个学步的小孩。

However, after you saved enough for retirement in a given year, then it's time to start thinking about college, even if your kid's only a toddler.

而存大学教育金最好的方式，毫无疑问，就是所谓的529计划。

And the best way to save for college, hands down, is through what's known as a five twenty nine plan.

这种计划各州规定不同，但基本规则全国通用。

Now, these plans vary by state, but the general rules apply across the country.

529计划有两种类型。

Now, there's two kinds of five twenty nine plans.

第一种，有些州允许你用529计划来对冲学费上涨的风险。

First, some states let you use a five twenty nine as a hedge, way to hedge against tuition inflation.

你可以按现在的价格购买大学学费积分，将来再用。

You can buy college tuition credits at today's prices and then use them in the future.

不过，我说的不是这种，尤其是在现在这种大环境下，国家层面的政客都在讨论公立大学免学费了。

That's not what I'm talking about, though, especially not in a world where major national politicians are talking about making tuition free public universities.

不是。

No.

我想让你用529储蓄计划。

I want you to use a $5.29 savings plan.

再说一次，这些计划是由各州管理的。

Again, these are run by states.

但一般来说，529计划不让你自己管理投资组合。

But generally speaking, a five twenty nine doesn't let you manage your own portfolio.

你只能从不同的共同基金里选，就像很多401k计划一样。

You have to pick between a mix of different mutual funds, just like with many four zero one k plans.

这不是我最喜欢的方式。

This is not my favorite way to do things.

我更希望你能自己掌控资产，但529计划好处太多了，所以这个缺点我愿意接受。

I prefer you to have control over your assets, but five twenty nines have so much going for them that I'm willing to swallow this one flaw.

记住，当你只能选基金的时候，就选那种成本低、跟踪大盘的，比如标普500指数基金。

Remember, when you can only choose between funds, go for a low cost fund that mirrors the market like an s and p 500 index fund.

那么，529计划有什么规则呢？

So what are the rules for a five twenty nine plan?

好的。

Alright.

假设你刚有了第一个孩子。

Let's say you've just had your first child.

恭喜你。

Congratulations.

如果你负担得起，就应该马上以孩子为受益人开一个529账户。

If you can afford it, you should start a five twenty nine with your kids as the beneficiary right then and there.

我就是这么做的。

That's what I did.

嗯，也许等几天再说。

Well, maybe wait a couple of days.

毕竟你刚生了孩子。

After all, you just had a baby.

虽然我当时没这么做。

Although I didn't.

读过《街头行骗自白》的人都知道，我整个生孩子期间都在大量喝酒。

Anyone who's read Confessions of a Street Act knows I traded big blocks of alcohol throughout the whole birthing.

说实话，那是我最风光的时候。

Admittedly, my finest hour.

虽然那些交易在财务上还算成功，但对家里的事情真没什么帮助。

Although the trades only worked out financially, if not familiar, Didn't really help things at home.

529计划是这样的。

Here's how $5.29 works.

投入的钱不能抵税。

The contributions are not tax deductible.

所以你得用税后的收入来支付。

So you're paying for this with after tax income.

一旦你的钱进了529计划，收益就不用交税，可以年复一年地免税复利增长，这正是我非常喜欢的一点。

Once your money's in the $5.29 plan, you don't pay any taxes on your gains, so they can compound tax free year after year, which is what I like so much.

这很像世界个人退休账户，只不过是为了大学教育而不是退休。

It's a lot like a World IRA, except for college rather than retirement.

由于联邦赠与税法的规定，如果你是单身，每年可以存入17000美元；如果已婚并联合报税，则可以存入34000美元。

Because of federal gift tax laws, you can contribute 17,000 a year if you're single, or 34,000 if you're married and you file your taxes jointly.

这可是一大笔钱。

That is a heck of a lot of money.

哦，顺便说一下，孩子的祖父母也可以往同一个529计划里存钱。

Oh, and by the way, your kid's grandparents can contribute to the same five twenty nine plan too.

如果你没有钱，祖父母也可以以你的孩子为受益人开设一个529计划。

And if you don't have the money, a grandparent can also start a five twenty nine with your kid as the beneficiary.

不过从助学金申请的角度来看，最好由父母来操作。

Although for financial aid reasons, it's better to have a parent to do it.

现在假设由于某种原因，你或你的父母手头有一大笔钱。

Now let's say for some reason you or your parents are sitting on a really huge sum of money.

529计划的一个好处是，你可以一次性存入五年的供款，而无需缴纳联邦赠与税，只要你在接下来的五年内不向该计划的受益人写任何支票，这其实不难，因为谁会向一个七岁的孩子写支票呢？

One of the cool things about a five twenty nine plan is that you can front load five years worth of contributions without incurring the federal gift tax as long as you don't write any checks to the plan's beneficiary over the next five years, which is not hard because who writes checks to a seven year old?

换句话说，单亲父母或祖父母一开始就能往529计划里投8万5千美元。

In other words, a single parent or grandparent could potentially invest $85,000 into a five twenty nine plan right from the start.

如果已婚并联合报税，你可以投17万美元。

Or if you're married and filing jointly, you can contribute a $170,000.

之后的五年里，你再往里投钱就会触发赠与税，这可不是你想要的。

For the next five years after that, you won't be able to contribute anything without getting hit by the gift tax, which is something you don't want.

但说实话，一旦你往529计划里投了那么多钱，之后基本就不用再投多少了。

But honestly, once you've dropped that kind of money to a five twenty nine, you won't need to make that many more contributions.

不过关键是要尽早把钱放进孩子的529计划里。

The key here though is that you want to get that money into your kid's five twenty nine as early as possible.

因为这些计划最大的好处就在于复利的力量。

That's because the greatest of these plans is all about the power of compounding.

既然在529计划里不用交税，如果你能想办法投入8万5千美元，并且把这笔钱投到跟踪市场的低成本指数基金里，按照经验法则，长期来看你每年平均能赚大约8%。

Given that you don't pay taxes within the five twenty nine, if you can somehow contrive to contribute $85,000 worth of bat, and you invest that money in a low cost index fund that mirrors the market, the rule of thumb is that over time, you'll make an average of roughly 8% per year.

8%。

8%.

那么等你的新生儿长到18岁时，你的钱应该已经翻了三倍。

Then by the time your newborn is 18, you should have tripled your money.

8.5万变成了34万。

$85 turns into $340,000.

这笔钱足够支付昂贵的私立大学教育，还能顺便覆盖一部分法学院费用。

That's enough for an expensive private college education and a decent chunk of law school to boot.

我知道大多数人没法这样一次性投入529计划，但如果你能做到，这是最好的策略。

I know most people can't front load a $5.29 plan like this, but if you can front load, it's the best strategy.

哦，还有，对于祖父母来说，这听起来可能有点沉重，但你的529计划缴款不会计入遗产税。

Oh, and for grandparents, this may sound kind of grim, but your five twenty nine plan contributions won't count towards your estate tax.

嘿，借用《布莱恩的一生》里的一句话，永远要看到死亡积极的一面。

Hey, to borrow a line from the life of Brian, always look on the bright side of death.

关于为大学和研究生院储蓄的最后一点，529计划里没用到的钱，你可以转给其他亲属。

Last thing about saving for college and grad school, any money in a five twenty nine plan that you don't use, you can transfer to another relative.

我们说的是兄弟姐妹、父母，甚至表亲。

We're talking siblings, parents, even first cousins.

顺便说一句，如果你存了这么多钱，结果你那个不领情的孩子决定不上大学，你可以直接从529计划里把钱取出来。

By the way, if you save all this money and your ungrateful kid decides not to go to college, you can just withdraw the money from your five twenty nine plan.

直接拿走就行。

You just take it.

不过，你得为收益部分交税，还要付10%的罚金。

Although, you'll have to pay taxes on any of your gains along with a 10% penalty.

说到底就是这么回事。

Here's the bottom line.

供孩子上大学，不如先保障自己的退休生活，至少在财务上是这样。

Paying for your kid's college education isn't as important as providing for yourself in retirement, at least not financially.

但如果你有孩子，在当年退休储蓄存够之后，往529大学储蓄计划里存钱，应该是你接下来的优先事项。

But if you have children, then after you've made enough retirement contributions for the year, putting money in in a 05/29 college savings plan should be the next item on your agenda.

跟着克莱默走。

Stick with Cramer.

哦，对。

Oh, yeah.

吉姆·克莱默。

Jim Cramer.

我是第一次打电话进来，也是俱乐部的开心会员。

I'm a first time caller, a happy club member.

我想感谢你，你是投资界的平民英雄。

I wanna thank you for being the people's champion of investing.

谢谢你帮我成了百万富翁。

Thank you for helping me become a millionaire.

我常说，节目里我最喜欢的部分就是直接回答你们的问题。

I always say my favorite part of the show is answering questions directly from you.

今天，我请来了杰夫·马克斯，我在Prime的投组合分析搭档，帮我回答你们最迫切的问题。

Today, I'm bringing in Jeff Marks, my portfolio analyst partner in Prime, help me answer some of your most burning questions.

对于投资俱乐部的成员来说，杰夫不需要多介绍。

Now for those of you who are part of the investing club, Jeff will need no introduction.

如果你还不是会员，我希望你也能加入。

For those of you who aren't members, I hope you so will.

你得赶紧加入才行。

You gotta join already.

我觉得杰夫在我们来回讨论中的见解，帮我为所有《疯狂金钱》的观众做得很好。

I would say Jeff's insights on our back and forth helped me do a great job for all Mad Money viewers.

而且我觉得，在某些方面，比说给会员听更重要。

And I think in some ways more important than to say it, members of the club.

如果你喜欢这个，一定要加入俱乐部。

And if you like this, be sure to join the club.

有意思的是，你知道吗，他和我每天都争论，而且我们意见不合。

What's really interesting, just so you know, is that he and I go at it every day, and we don't agree.

如果我们都同意，那还有什么意义呢？

If we all if we agreed, what would be the point?

首先，我们接听来自加利福尼亚的格雷戈里的问题，他说，嗨，吉姆。

First up, we're taking questions from Gregory in California who is, hi, Jim.

我两个月前开始加入投资俱乐部，我早该相信你的。

I started with Investing Club two months ago, and I should have trusted you.

谢谢。

Thank you.

现在你引起了我的注意。

You have my attention now.

谢谢。

Thank you.

有没有一个客观的方法来确定内在价值？

Is there an objective way to determine intrinsic value?

如果有，关于这个主题的清晰信息又在哪里？

If so, where is clear information on the subject again?

这一点我们俩可能有分歧。

Now this is something that you and I may disagree on.

我更像艺术派。

I am more, art.

你更像科学派。

You are more science.

当我考虑一家公司是否具有内在价值时，我常常会想，没有它我们行不行？

When I think about a company that has intrinsic value, I often think about, can we do without it?

它有多特别？

How special is it?

它的总市场规模有多大？

What's the total addressable market?

我认为市值是否等同于机会？

Do I value the market cap as equal to the opportunity?

这是我个人的看法。

That's a very my own way to look at it.

而你，我觉得你更注重分析，更精确。

You, on the other hand, I think you're far more analytic and more precise.

嗯，条条大路通罗马。

Well, there's more than one way to skin a cat.

我觉得一种方法是看这家公司的市盈率，和同行比较，然后对比营收增长、毛利率、自由现金流这些指标，把它们一一对比。

I think one way you could do it is look at the price to earnings multiple of that company versus some of its peers, then compare things like revenue growth, gross margins, free cash flow, and can stack them up one against each other.

这可以是一种判断股票相对于同类公司是便宜还是昂贵的方法。

And that could be a way to term to to determine if a stock is cheap or expensive versus the group.

完全同意。

Totally.

而且我觉得，当我看公司的时候，我会说我想强调，比如说，礼来而不是百时美施贵宝。

And I I think that when I I look at companies and I say that I wanna emphasize, let's say, Eli Lilly over Bristol.

我看重的是增长率，这样我就不太担心市盈率了，但你总是把我拉回现实，提醒我有时候市盈率如果飙得太高，可能会带来问题，而我们最终是受托人，必须做正确的事。

I look at the fact that the growth rate makes it so that I'm not as worried about the price to earnings ratio, but then I've got you bringing back to Earth to always remind me that sometimes price to earnings ratio, if it goes sky high, could create problems, and we are in the end at trust, and we must do what's right.

接下来，我们有来自纽约的罗伯特问，嗨，吉姆。

Next, we have Robert New York who asked, hi, Jim.

我不想显得贪心，但如果我打算长期持有一只股票，而我知道它极有可能继续上涨，我为什么还要在这家公司上获利了结呢？

I don't want to sound like a pig, but if I'm planning to hold a stock for the long term, why should I take profits in the company when I know there's an excellent chance the stock will continue to rise?

好的。

Okay.

那么，原因如下。

So here's why.

你不能变成那家公司。

You can't become the company.

当我看到礼来公司，我认为它是有史以来最大的制药公司。

When I look at an Eli Lilly, which I think has got the biggest pharmaceutical

之一

of

我已经提过两次了。

all time, I mentioned it twice now.

抱歉，但我一直想着它。

I'm sorry, but it's on my mind.

我们很容易变成礼来基金，因为它变得太强势了。

We could easily become the Eli Lilly fund because it becomes dominant.

我们可能变成苹果基金，因为它也变得太强势了。

We could become the Apple fund because it's become dominant.

所以我们一直努力做到不押注于单一公司，这就是为什么我们觉得你需要适当减仓。

So what we try to do at all times is make it so that we do not swing from one company, and that's what makes us feel like you've got to do some trimming.

对。

Yeah.

我觉得减持和清仓之间也有区别。

I think there's also a difference too between trimming versus selling.

如果从2022年学到了什么，那就是即使是世界上最好的公司，拥有最好的产品和出色的资产负债表管理，也没有谁能免受大幅回调的影响。

If we've learned anything from 2022, it's that even the best companies in the world with the best products, great balance sheet management, no one was immune to a significant pullback.

所以如果你能避免这种情况，那么即使公司再好，减持也是更有利的。

So if you can avoid, something like that, then it it favors trimming, even if it's such a great company.

杰夫，说得太好了。

Jeff, perfectly put.

现在我想说，总有一个牛市在某个地方，我正努力在《疯狂金钱》节目里为你找到它。

Now I'd like to say there's always a bull market somewhere, and I'm I'm trying to find it just for you right here at Mad Money.

我是吉姆·克莱默。

I'm Jim Cramer.

下次见。

See you next time.

Jim Cramer在本播客中表达的所有观点仅代表Cramer个人意见，不代表CNBC或其母公司、关联公司的立场，这些观点可能已在电视、广播、互联网或其他媒体上发布过。

All opinions expressed by Jim Cramer on this podcast are solely Cramer's opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by Cramer on television, radio, Internet, or another medium.

你不应将Cramer的任何观点视为对特定投资或特定策略的具体建议，而应仅视作他个人观点的表达。

You should not treat any opinion expressed by Cramer as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy but only as an expression of his opinion.

Cramer的观点基于他认为可靠的信息，但CNBC及其关联公司和子公司不对其完整性和准确性作任何保证，也不应依赖这些观点。

Cramer's opinions are based upon information he considers reliable but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such.

如需查看完整的《疯狂金钱》免责声明，请访问cnbc.com，搜索“Mad Money免责声明”。

To view the full Mad Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com forward slash Mad Money disclaimer.

NFL开赛时间到了。

It's NFL kickoff time.

周三，迈克尔·奥泽尼安将带来独家NFL球队估值。

Wednesday, exclusive NFL team valuations from Michael Ozenian.

周四，CNBC体育频道将在澳大利亚直播NFL史上首场比赛，届时将采访总裁罗杰·古德尔。

Thursday, CNBC Sport live from the NFL's first ever game in Australia with commissioner Roger Goodell.

周三开始，敬请关注CNBC。

Starts Wednesday, CNBC.