设定2026年目标，从黑色星期五和亚马逊品牌竞价中学习增量效应

这相当于我们日常的广告支出，所以我们仍然在这一小部分上投入了资金，然后测试了增加50%和增加100%的广告预算。

That got like our BAU spend, so we still spent in that small segment, and then we tested scaling up 50% and and tested scaling up a 100%.

我们发现，增加50%的预算带来了显著的增量效果和盈利，对此结果非常满意。

Now what we found was the 50% scale up was extremely incremental and profitable, happy with those results.

增加100%的预算得到的数据比较混乱，但根据现有信息，我们认为这不太可能是增量且盈利的。

100%, we got a noisy read, but based on the information that we have, we think it's unlikely that that was incremental and profitable.

因此，主要的结论是：我们未来可能想再次运行这个测试，以获得更清晰的结论；但如果我们只是想做一个方向性的判断，那么像过去几年那样大幅增加预算，对我们来说可能并不有利。

So the main takeaway is we'll probably wanna run this test again in the future to, like, get true clarity, but if we just wanna take a directional read here, it's likely not advantageous for us to be scaling up as much as that in in previous years.

至少在BFCM期间对四个戒指产品是这样，具体还要看你希望多频繁地应用这种逻辑。

At least four rings during BFCM, and it depends on how often you want to be applying that sort of logic.

所以，这就是主要的发现。

So that was the main thing.

我们未来还想做的是——我觉得这很有趣——我们特意将日常支出的10%作为所谓的‘对照组’，因为我们希望投入更多资金。

What we wanna do also in the future, and I think this is interesting, we deliberately made our BAU, like, quote unquote holdout 10% because we wanted to spend more.

比如说，说‘嘿，这会是一次代价高昂的实验。'

Like, would be a costly experiment to say, hey.

只有三分之一的国家会达到这个较低的支出门槛，而实际上，如果我们把国家平均分成三份，可能会对品种有更清晰的判断。

Only a third of the country is gonna get this, like, lower spend threshold, when in reality, we probably would have gotten more clarity around the breed if we'd split the country into even thirds.

因此，在这个关键的送礼期间，我们正在更加保守地设定基础ROAS。

So what we're also doing right now in this, like, key gifting period is just being a little bit more conservative with, like, setting that baseline ROAS.

这就是我们目前的情况。

So that's what we have right now.

这是对之前测试的跟进。

That's a follow-up on the test.

我知道推特上有很多关于应该多激进地扩大投放的争论。

I know there's a lot of debate on Twitter about, like, whether you should be how aggressively should you be scaling up.

这对我们的数据来说是一个很好的参考，表明应该在两者之间找到平衡。

This is a pretty good data point for us that says it's somewhere in between.

我们可能无法像希望的那样大规模扩展，并且必须关注边际回报的变化。

That, like, we probably can't scale up as much as we'd like, and we have to be conscious of that marginal rudder.

你们觉得怎么样？

So what do you guys think of that?

你有没有尝试过类似的东西？

Have you experimented with anything similarly?

如果你处于我的位置，你会如何利用这些信息继续推进？

And if you were in my shoes, what do you do with this information moving forward?

我可以问一下关于实验设计的问题吗？

Can I ask a question about the test design?

嗯。

Yeah.

所以你说的是一个三组支出测试。

So so you say, three cell stack spend test.

所以这是针对所有渠道的整个测试。

So this is a entire, like, every channel.

对吧？

Right?

所以你们有

So you had your

这只是元数据。

It's just meta.

哦，只是元数据。

Oh, just meta.

明白了。

Got it.

只是元数据。

Just meta.

明白了。

Got it.

明白了。

Got it.

它。

It.

它。

It.

有道理。

Makes sense.

我觉得你的结论是对的。

I think I think your conclusions right.

所以你基本上是在试图理解，在实际高峰期期间增加投入是否会带来额外的销量？

So you're you're basically trying to understand, like, does scaling up during the actual peak moment drive incremental sales?

还是说我们之前在高峰期前的所有投入才是关键？

Or is it all those spend that we did headed into peak moment?

你们验证了这一点：没错，实际上在这五天的高峰期期间增加投入确实带来了具有盈利性增量成本的额外订单，但你们也看到了回报递减的现象——从10%的投放量提升到50%时效果不错，但再提升到100%时，可能就没那么好了，因为每单增量成本变得不再盈利了，你们是不是这个意思？

And you guys validated that, no, actually spending up during this five day clip is driving incremental orders at a profitable incremental cost per order, but you saw diminishing return like, saw you liked what you saw from 10% scale to 50%, but then didn't see a good, maybe it wasn't, was it, did you get like a a readout on the 100%, but it was just like the cost per order, the cost per incremental order was like not profitable anymore, is that what you were saying?

这正是我们观察到的情况。

That's exactly what we saw.

明白了。

Got it.

现在有一个需要注意的地方，我也要特别感谢House团队的Noah，他对这些结果做了更深入的解读，我们与他们的团队紧密合作，共同解读这些数据。

Now now the the one flag, and and I'll also shout out Noah from House because he crushed the, like, deeper explanation, and we worked really closely with their team to kind of interpret these results.

他们特别强调，100%这一项的置信区间非常大，结果可能朝任何方向发展。

They really stressed that the confidence interval around that 100% cell readout was really big, so it could go anyway.

实际上，这些增量可能比这次结果所示的还要多，因此他们建议我们再次测试，使用更大的33%常规对照组。

It's plausible that these actually were more incremental than this readout shows, and that's why they encouraged us to test it again with that larger 33% kinda BAU holdout.

但我们在技术上发现，100%的大幅增加——更激进的投放规模——已经不再盈利。

But what we found technically is that that 100% scale up, the more aggressive scale up was no longer profitable.

我不知道除了你已经得出的结论之外，还有什么要补充的。

I don't know if I have anything additional outside of what you already concluded.

对吧？

Right?

不过我觉得你找到了那个最佳点，明年你可以用这个比例来规划你的预算。

Like, I think you found that sweet spot though, which I think then next year you can you can, like, use to flight your budget.

所以就是，好吧，我们打算在进入这个高峰期前，比上一阶段提升50%，而不是100%。

So it's like, alright, we're gonna go we're gonna scale up 50% from the prior period headed into this peak moment, not not a 100%.

所以我觉得你现在对‘我们应该提升多少’这个问题有了更明确的答案。

So I think you just have a much more confident like, how how much do we scale up?

好的。

Alright.

我们不会将预算翻三倍，但可能会将其增加一半。

We're not gonna triple budgets, but we're we might, yeah, one half them.

这是在美国还是其他地区？

This was this was in this was US or a different region?

这是在，是的。

This was in yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

好问题。

Great question.

这是我们在美国的戒指业务，为了明确日期，时间是11月26日至12月1日。

This was this was our rings business in The US, and then to clarify the dates, it was 11:26 to 12/01.

所以实际上就是BFCM期间的六天，很多人都在 aggressively 扩大规模。

So it was really just like the six days of BFCM where many people are scaling really aggressively.

我们只是想把这部分拆出来，看看在不同投入水平下的边际回报是多少。

We just wanted to tear that out a little bit and see what was our marginal return at different levels.

我尊重你们在那周大胆推进的勇气，因为我一直觉得，我们既不想错失机会，也不希望错过时机。

I respect the confidence to run to run it during that week because I think I've always felt like, hey, we don't wanna either miss out opportunities or, like, it's not a time.

所以我觉得这非常棒，很好。

So I think that's awesome and great.

而且我知道你们提到过，过去几年一直有疑虑，担心只是压低了平均值，然后过度花费。

And it's like, I know that you've talked about having the the suspicion of prior years of just kinda waiting down your average and overspending.

所以我觉得，你们是否认为这是一个非常积极的学习经验，会应用到未来的促销活动中？

So it's like, I feel like that's do you do you feel like that's like a really positive learning that you you'll take into, you know, future promos?

这让我对在扩张时保持保守态度更有信心了，尤其是当你考虑如何广泛地应用这一经验时。

It's probably it makes me feel more conviction around being conservative when it comes to scale, especially like and then it just depends on how widely do you want to apply that.

而且我们显然可以在未来其他时间再进行这个测试。

And we can obviously run this test at many other times in the future.

比如，我们可能想在父亲节发货截止日期前再次进行一次类似的测试。

Like, we might wanna run it again going into the Father's Day shipping cutoff, something like that.

还有另一个对我们来说非常重要的时期，我们从技术上讲可以扩大规模并获得很好的MER，但我对这些额外资金的边际回报可能持怀疑态度。

There's another really big period for us where we can technically scale and have a great MER, but I would maybe be skeptical about the marginal return of those additional dollars.

但比如明年计划黑五预算时，我们有了这个有价值的数据点，提醒我们不要像过去那样过于激进。

But like for, yeah, Black Friday next year when we're planning budgets, like we have this, I think, valuable data point that says, hey, let's not be as aggressive as we might have been in the past.

你觉得从戒指品类扩展到其他所有品类时，能普遍适用这个结论吗？

Do you feel comfortable kinda generalizing that across the rest of your business from going from rings to everywhere else?

是的。

Yeah.

好的。

Okay.

所以这正是你提到的，你认可我们在黑五周末期间进行了这项测试。

So that's the big one where it's like, you you you say you're giving me some credit for running it the week the weekend of Black Friday.

我们的测试是在一个规模小得多的品类上进行的，而如果在EDC业务上做这个测试，成本可能会高得多，因为那个周末EDC的规模是戒指业务的十倍。

I mean, we did do it on a on a significantly smaller category where it's like running this test would just be potentially much costlier for, like, our EDC business, which that weekend is 10 times bigger than Ring's.

当然。

Sure.

当然。

Sure.

所以，从方向上看，我认为这对EDC业务可能会有帮助。

So it's probably, like directionally, I think it can be helpful for EDC.

我认为关键在于，我们对在高流量时期扩大规模这件事应该保持怀疑态度。

I think it is I I I think it's conviction around this idea that scaling into high volume periods we should be skeptical of.

我们可以将这一点应用到EDC业务上，但并不是说，我们原本扩得多，现在就直接砍到一半。

And we can apply that to EDC, but it's probably not like, hey, instead of scaling as much as we do, we're gonna scale to half of that.

这种解读可能太过激进了，但也许缩减到75%或70%，我们会更有信心这样规划预算。

That's probably a bit too aggressive of an interpretation, but, like, 75% of it maybe, 70% of it, we might feel more confident in budgeting it out that way.

你们在加拿大提前做过类似的测试吗？

Did you run a did you run a similar one leading up to it in Canada?

我记得我们之前在一个播客里聊过这个。

I thought we talked about that on one pod.

是的，我们做过。

We did, yeah.

好的。

Okay.

所以我们确实做了。

So we did.

我们两个都做了。

We we ran both.

我们在美国做了Rings，在加拿大做了EDC，两者的结果基本相同。

We ran rings in The US and EDC in Canada, and both got basically the same result.

因此，我们知道加拿大的EDC业务也有非常相似的结果，这可能会让我们更有信心以同样的方式处理美国的钱包业务和EDC业务。

So you can, we might have more conviction knowing that the EDC business in Canada also had a very similar readout, and that might give us more conviction to approach the wallet business, the EDC business in the same way in The US.

是的。

Yeah.

我认为，如果你在几种不同的设置下得到了可重复的结果，这会让事情更有道理。

I think, yeah, if you get kind of reproducible results across a few a few different setups, I think that kind of makes it have more sense.

因为，是的，当我真正思考这个问题时，我在想：你能从加拿大推断到美国吗？

Because, yeah, I remember that when I was actually thinking about that, and I was like, can you can you infer Canada to US?

因为，显然这个市场会小得多，所以我觉得这才是更重要的事，但我觉得你们在两个地方都做了。

Because, like, obviously, that market's gonna be way smaller, so I I feel like that's that's a bigger thing, but I think because you've got it on both of them.

完全正确。

Totally.

这就像今年早些时候我们举办元宇宙峰会和绩效峰会时，有人说过一句很棒的话：你并没有真正的北极星指标。

And that's like when we did the the meta summit, the performance summit earlier this year, there was that great quote where someone was like, you don't really have like a North Star metric.

你拥有的是一组相互关联的星星，需要一起把握。

You have like a constellation of stars that you're trying to work with.

而这正是我们现在的情况——我们有两个指标，可以用来稍微引导自己。

And like, that's what this it's like, you've got two that we're we can kinda use to guide ourselves a little bit.

我还有一个。

So I got one.

我还有本季度的另一个测试。

I got another test of the quarter.

所以我们进行了有史以来第四次品牌搜索测试。

So we ran our fourth brand search test ever.

我们在促销期间进行了这个测试，因为最初我们的品牌搜索是在两年前做的。

Ran it during promo period because I'm like, our our journey originally, we ran brand search two years ago.

并没有带来显著增量，但我们一直保持投放，因为花费并不多。

Not really incremental, but like, we kept it live because we weren't spending that much.

我们推出了电视广告。

We launched TV ads.

所以也许这次的结果和那个有关，没错。

So maybe this was maybe that was yeah.

两年前，一年半前，我们推出了电视广告。

Two years ago, year and a half ago, we launched TV.

我们每天开始在电视广告上投入数千美元。

We started spending multiple grand a day on TV.

我们觉得，好吧。

We're like, alright.

我们现在想进行一次测试。

It's we we we now wanna test.

这可能是增量的，但我们花的钱已经足够多了，必须弄清楚。

It's probably incremental, but like we're spending enough where we we need to know.

不是增量的。

Not incremental.

关掉它。

Shut it off.

对吧？

Right?

嗯。

Mhmm.

然后我觉得我们又跑了一个第三个项目。

And then I think we ran a third one.

哦，然后我们就关掉了。

Oh, and then we shut it off.

我们发现66%的付费搜索流量或品牌搜索转化为了自然搜索。

We saw 66 percent of paid search traffic or brand search go to organic search.

真的没有任何可察觉的收入影响。

Really no no discernible revenue impact.

但我们当时在购物平台上遇到了大量经销商、骗子之类的问题。

But we had all these like resellers, scammers, stuff like that in in shopping.

所以我们打算只测试品牌购物，因为必须和他们竞争。

So So like, like, we're we're gonna gonna test just brand shopping, we got to compete with them.

那里并没有带来增量效果，尽管我们真的很讨厌Outlook。

No incrementality there, even though like we hated Outlook.

所以这第四个案例，我几个月前参加了奥利维亚举办的一个家庭活动。

So this fourth one, I was at this house event that Olivia hosted like a few months back.

有人提到他们在促销期间发现品牌搜索结果与其他时候不同，这很合理。

And somebody was talking about how they found different brand search results during promo period compared to others, you know, which makes sense.

你知道，你正在创造大量需求。

There's, you know, you're you're generating all this demand.

你不想错失这些机会。

You don't wanna lose out on it.

会有人竞标这个。

There's gonna be other people bidding on it.

我记得即使是一年前，扎克·斯塔克还给我们发过短信。

I remember even like a year ago, Zach Stuck actually, like, texted us.

他谈的是关于我们。

It was like about us.

他当时说：嘿。

He was like, hey.

你们没有品牌搜索，这看起来挺糟糕的，因为你们抢走了我们的搜索流量。

This looks pretty bad that you guys, like, don't have brand search, you know, because, like, you peel our search.

于是我心想：好吧，咱们来测试一下。

And so I was like, alright, like, let's let's test it.

对我来说，这感觉风险更低，因为最坏的情况不过是亏点钱。

Like, this felt like a lower risk one to me because it's like, worst case scenario, we just lose a little money.

即使在同期，几乎也没有增量效果。

Almost no incrementality even during the same.

每新增一个用户的成本大概是700美元。

It was like a $700 cost per new.

然后总的来看，增量几乎可以忽略不计， barely。

And then like, even even total was like, you know, it's like tiny bit incremental, but like, barely.

所以我跟奥利维亚在推特上开玩笑说，别让我再运行另一个分支了，

So I told I I joked with Olivia on Twitter, but I'm like, do not let me run another branch or

什么的。

something.

你看到那个了吗？

Did you see that up well?

我紧张得坐立不安。

I was on the edge

我坐在椅子边缘。

of my seat.

我真的以为你会回来，说：‘哦，对了。’

I really thought you were gonna come back and be like, oh, yeah.

嗯，这是逐步增加的。

Well, it's incremental.

现在我们得弄清楚如何在一年中的不同时间点进行。

Now we gotta figure out how to do it at like different points throughout the year.

是的。

Yeah.

那可能会是一个更难的决定之类的，但没有。

That would, I guess, been a harder harder decision or whatever, but no.

就是完全没有。

Just just none.

我现在很高兴，我不得不去我的谷歌代表那里说：伙计们，别再让我花钱去做了。

And I'm so happy now I had to go to my Google reps and be like, guys, stop telling me to spend to do it.

这是数据。

Here's data.

一大堆数据。

A bunch of data.

你已经有了完整的，是的，

You've got a full, yeah,

一系列针对品牌搜索的SARS增量活动。

a full galaxy of SARS towards

品牌搜索是增量的。

brand search up being incremental.

你有做这些吗，科迪？

Do you do you do any of it, Cody?

你是完全没在品牌搜索词上花钱，还是稍微花一点只是为了存在？

Like, are you at $0 spent on on brand search terms or are you spending, like, a little bit just to be there?

我得查一下。

I gotta check.

我在墨西哥城的时候看了一下通话笔记，我记得他们说，我们要为我们自己以20倍的投入来运行。

I was looking at like the notes while I was in Mexico City of like of a call and I think they're like, oh, we're gonna run it like a 20 x for us.

我都不确定。

And I'm like, I don't even know.

我的意思是，这有什么意义呢？

Like, what's what's the point?

你知道的。

You know?

所以我觉得这事该做了。

So I I I think it should be done.

是的。

Yeah.

最近，我跟每个营销人员交谈时，他们都说同样的话：压力很大，预算紧张，目标比以往任何时候都高，我必须证明哪些有效，而不仅仅是报告数据，这就是营销的新现实。

Lately, every marketer I talk to says the same thing, the pressure's on, budgets are tight, goals are higher than ever, and I have to prove what's working, not just report it, that's the new reality of marketing.

你不能依赖猜测或平台提供的数据，你需要清晰、无偏见的因果证据，来确认真正推动增长的因素，而这正是House的用武之地。

You can't afford to rely on guesses or platform reported results, you need clear, unbiased, causal proof of what's actually driving growth and that's exactly where house comes in.

增量测试是衡量真实影响的科学方法。

Incrementality testing is the scientific way to measure true impact.

这是理解真实影响最无偏见的方式，能看清哪些因素真正推动了增长，哪些只是噪音，从而让你能基于事实而非直觉来重新分配预算。

It is the most unbiased way to understand true impact, To see what's moving the needle and what's just noise so you can reallocate spend based on fact, not faith.

所有营销运营人员都在 HexClad、Jones Road、Beauty And Ridge 使用 Houzz 进行增量测试，它正成为现代测量体系的核心组成部分。

All of the marketing operators use Houzz for their incrementality testing at HexClad, Jones Road, Beauty And Ridge and is becoming a core part of the modern measurement stack.

Houzz 帮助你在各个渠道运行真实实验，从而回答真正重要的问题，比如：哪些渠道真正推动了增量收入，哪些只是在抢功劳？

House helps you run real experiments across your channel so you can answer questions that actually matter like, which channels are truly driving incremental revenue and which are just taking credit?

我到底应该在 Meta、Google 和 YouTube 上投入多少预算？

How much should I really be spending on Meta, Google, and YouTube?

亚马逊或零售销售上的广告有什么光环效应？

What's the halo effect of ads on Amazon or retail sales?

我该如何设计我的营销活动，让每一分钱都带来真正可衡量的成效？

And how should I structure my campaign so every dollar goes towards real measurable impact?

Houzz 的独特之处在于将无偏见、严谨的科学方法与面向营销人员的简洁设计相结合。

What sets Houzz apart is the combination of unbiased, rigorous science and marketer friendly design.

底层的数学运算非常复杂，但平台本身却极其简单。

The math under the hood is very complex, but the platform itself is very, very simple.

你只需选择一个问题，几分钟内启动测试，就能获得清晰、真实、可直接使用的成果；此外，每位客户、每个品牌都会配备一位专属的测量策略师。我必须说，Houzz 的测量策略师团队非常专业，极具战略眼光，他们会帮助你设计测试方案，确保你获得具有统计显著性且可执行的结果。

You choose your question, you launch your test in minutes and you get clear actual results you can actually use, plus every customer, every brand gets a dedicated measurement strategist and I will tell you what the house measurement strategist team is very dialed in, they are very strategic, helping you set these tests up in a way where you're gonna get statistically significant results that are actionable.

最终，会有一位深谙增长领域的人，能够将数据转化为策略，解读结果，并在你的团队中建立可重复的实验文化。

And ultimately, there's someone who has lived in the world of growth and they know how to translate data into strategy, interpret the results and build a repeatable culture of experimentation across your team.

在每一美元营销预算都受到严格审视的时代，你需要知道什么是真实的。

In a world where every marketing dollar is under a microscope, you need to know what's real.

通过访问 haus.io/operators，用 Haus 测量真正重要的指标。

Measure what matters with Haus by going to haus.iooperators.

访问 haus.io/operators，自信地分配你的预算。

That's haus.io/operators and start allocating your budget with confidence.

我这里有个很好的过渡，因为我觉得这对我们公司的业务更相关，康纳。

I've got a good segue here, because I think it's more applicable to our businesses, Connor.

但这个问题被提出来了。

But so this came up.

同样的想法。

Same idea.

奥利维亚在推特上问了这个问题。

Olivia asked on Twitter.

这是几天前的事了。

This was this was a couple days ago.

其他人有没有注意到，亚马逊最近在品牌关键词上的出价比以往更积极了？

Anybody else noticing that Amazon is bidding more aggressively on brand terms than in the past?

现在你得花钱在谷歌上竞价，才能阻止亚马逊的广告出现。

Now you have to pay Google text to prevent the Amazon text.

仔细想想，这确实挺荒唐的。

Really kinda messed up when you think about it.

我当时说，这件事被严重忽视了。基本上，我加入了一个与奥利维亚和该品牌相关的讨论帖，他们发现的情况——这和我们过去在Ridge的经历完全一致：亚马逊的业绩远超其原始预测和目标。

And I said this was like really under discussed, and basically what I got added to a thread with Olivia and the brand that was kind of like, had this question, and what they were finding, and this is exactly what we found at Ridge in the past, is Amazon was performing significantly above their original forecasts and goals.

他们发现，更偏向于 anecdotal 的是，亚马逊在品牌关键词竞价上似乎更活跃了。

What they found was like, and this was more anecdotally, it seemed like Amazon was more active on their brand bidding terms.

而且，亚马逊在这些搜索广告中使用了更激进的促销文案。

And on top of that, Amazon had more aggressive promo messaging in those search ads.

亚马逊在广告中宣传的是其平台上该品类的折扣比例，这个折扣甚至高于品牌自身黑色星期五促销的力度。

Amazon was talking about the percent off of like the category on Amazon, which was higher than what the brand was running for their Black Friday sale.

所以我觉得这非常非常有趣，我们过去也遇到过同样的情况，于是我调出了这些数据，因为我们发现亚马逊的EDC增长速度远远超过了.com上的EDC增长。

And so I thought that was super, super interesting, and what we've seen in the past, so I pulled this data, because we've experienced the same thing, where all of a sudden Amazon is like, what we would look at is Amazon EDC growth outpacing EDC growth on .com.

这到底是为什么呢？

And it's like, why would that be happening?

这至少对我们来说，是一个非常重要的原因。

And this is like a really big reason why it does, at least for us.

在过去的四年里，我们发现当亚马逊竞标我们的关键词时，他们总能获得很高的页面顶部展示率。

And what we've seen over the past four years, when Amazon bids on our terms, they always get a high top of page rate.

不是绝对的第一位，但总能出现在前两到三位。

Not absolute top of page, but they're showing up in like the top two, three months.

通常都在95%左右。

It's always like mid 90 percents.

2022年，他们的印象份额只有20%，2023年是39%，2024年是64%，而今年他们达到了60%。

In 2022, they only hit 20% impression share, 23, 39%, 24, 64%, and then this year they were at 60%.

所以他们一旦出价，就总是非常激进，而现在他们的出价频率是以往的三倍。

So they basically, they bid, they always bid aggressively when they bid, and now they're bidding three times more than they usually do.

而且我刚才提到，由于我们正在投放电视广告、顶部漏斗层的Meta广告和YouTube广告，实际上带来了更多品牌搜索查询，比例上远超以往。

And I was saying on top of that, because we're running TV and top of funnel meta ads and YouTube, we're actually driving more brand queries, like disproportionately more brand queries.

我们带来了更多搜索量，而亚马逊在这些搜索词上出价更加激进；只要我们对自己的品牌搜索出价不够谨慎，亚马逊就能轻易刷高自己的数据，实现比我们原本预测更显著的增长。

We're driving more queries and Amazon's bidding more aggressively on those, and basically whenever Amazon wants, if we're not thoughtful about our own brand search bidding, they can like pad their own stats and achieve like more significant growth than than we would have otherwise forecasted.

因为康纳，我觉得你们也处于类似的境地。

Because Connor, I feel like you guys have to be in a similar bucket.

你们得更多地考虑这种权衡。

You have to be thinking about that trade off a little bit more.

是的。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

今年这个问题对我们来说不存在，但过去几年里，这曾是个大问题。

We we had this is not a problem for us this year, but in the last couple years, it was a huge problem.

亚马逊曾经在我们自己的品牌关键词上出价超过我们。

Like Amazon was outbidding us on our own branded terms.

你可以进去看看是谁在竞价你的关键词。

You know, you can go in and like see the like, who's bidding on your terms.

我们为此事向我们的亚马逊代表提出了意见。

And we were, we made a bit of a fuss about it to our Amazon reps.

我不知道他们把这反馈给了谁，但现在他们这样做的频率低多了。

And I don't know who they kind of like, sent that back to, but they are doing it way less now.

因为去年和前年，我们对他们在我们的关键词上出价过高感到非常不满。

Because we were we were pretty we were pretty we were pretty upset with them about it, like last year and the year before, with how much they're bidding on our terms.

如果我们愿意，我们可以走这条路，但其实没必要。

We can go down this route if we want, we don't have to.

我们注意到，我们在亚马逊内部非品牌词的投放上走得太远了，比如我们观察到品牌词的展示量与点击量之间的差距，以及我们在亚马逊上品牌搜索词的点击占比，相比去年大幅下降。

What we noticed is that we actually swung the pendulum too far non brand inside of Amazon, where like we were looking at the delta between impressions and clicks on our brand terms and like the percent of clicks that we were getting in Amazon on our branded search terms had dropped a lot year over year.

因此，我们才意识到问题严重，决定加强投入。

And so that's where we actually beefed up where we said, crap.

我们之前太过偏向非品牌词，现在只获得了品牌词70%到80%的点击量。

We're we we swung too far to our brand because now we're not we're only getting, like, 70 to 80% of the clicks on our brand terms.

所以我们实际上增加了在亚马逊上对品牌关键词的出价，我知道这又是另一个话题，但今年我们并没有太担心亚马逊。

So we actually beefed up in Amazon brand term bidding, which I know is, again, a different topic here, but we did not have to we didn't worry as much about Amazon this year.

但我觉得这是因为去年我们对此提出了强烈抗议，我认为他们已经不再那么积极地对我们关键词出价了。

But I again, I think it's because we made a stink about it last year, and I think they they've, like, stopped bidding so aggressively on our terms.

我们同时也增加了在亚马逊之外的媒体渠道上的投入。

We've also in turn spent more money on off Amazon media opportunities.

所以这就像，你知道的，我们在和他们合作。

So it was kinda like, you know, we're playing ball with them.

所以我觉得他们现在也稍微更愿意和我们合作了。

So I think they're playing ball with us a little bit more now.

但，是的。

But, yeah.

嗯。

Yeah.

这是我们去年比今年更常处理的问题。

It's something we dealt with, like, in last year more than this year.

是的。

Yeah.

这太有趣了。

That's super interesting.

我想我们对亚马逊没有那种影响力。

We're I guess we don't have that sort of pull with Amazon.

我们得自己弄清楚这一点。

We had to figure that out.

但，不管怎样。

But, yeah, anyway.

他们拥有这么多资源，我的意思是，我们之前稍微聊过这一点，比如你们能接触到的亚马逊以外的媒体数量，简直惊人——在线视频、流媒体电视、Prime Video、体育赛事等等，我们今天正要和亚马逊的代表会面。

They have so much they've I mean, we talked a little bit about this, like the amount of off Amazon media that you can like, it's insane how much media they have, you know, online video, streaming TV, Prime Video, sports, like we're we're meeting with our Amazon reps today.

我们稍后可能会谈到2026年战略规划相关的内容。

And we might get into this in a little bit with like the the, like 2026 strategy setting stuff.

但我对亚马逊拥有的所有媒体资源感到非常兴奋，我们会继续在那里加大投资。

But I am like thrilled with all the media that they have, and we're gonna continue to invest more and more there.

只要他们停止对我们品牌关键词出价，就可以获得我们更多的媒体资源和顶部漏斗流量。

So as long as they stop bidding on our brand terms, they can have more of our media and and top funnel.

这就是我们和他们达成的协议。

And that that's the deal we've made with them.

太棒了。

Love it.

我得试试这个。

I'll have to give that a shot.

好的。

Alright.

你们想聊聊2026年的规划吗？

You guys wanna talk 2026 planning?

嗯。

Yeah.

来吧。

Let's do it.

好的。

Alright.

所以，亚伦·奥伦多夫，我们在Operators Network的可爱老板，把这些问题整理在一起。

So Aaron Orendorf, our our beloved boss at at the Operators Network, some of these questions together.

也许，科迪，我先请你来分享。

Maybe Cody, I'll kick it to you first.

我打算先回答我们这里的第二个问题。

I'm gonna go with the second question we have here.

在12月31日午夜钟声敲响之前，你认为CMO或增长负责人最应该做的一件事是什么？

What what would you say is the single most important thing for a CMO or growth lead to do before the clock strikes midnight on December 31?

CMO或增长负责人。

CMO or growth lead.

我的意思是，你必须要有你的计划。

I mean, you gotta have your plan.

你知道，这很可能需要来自CEO的正确配合。

You know, it's it's probably gonna come right combination from CEO.

这不仅仅是营销，营销并不是唯一的增长杠杆。

Like, it's not just marketing is is not the only growth lever.

所以，理想情况下，高管团队必须非常专注。

So, you know, ideally, it's this c suite being really, you know, dialed in.

但没错，你确实得有个计划。

But I mean, yeah, you gotta have your plan.

我们通常会开始规划，说实话，我希望我们能更早开始。

We start, you know, I wish we started earlier.

我们大概在十月就开始规划了。

We start October probably of planning it.

我觉得我们有点落后了。

I think we're a little behind the eight ball.

通常，这是由财务驱动的，通常是CEO和CFO主导规划，与各部门负责人开会，确定我们的产品、渠道和市场拓展策略，不管你怎么做，可能是客户分群建模、新客户与老客户的组合，也可能还包括更多需求规划，从库存角度来考虑。

Usually, it's like it's it's a very it's like finance driven, usually it's like CEO, CFO who will be driving the plan, meeting with, you know, department heads, figuring out what's our, you know, product channel market expansion strategy, you know, what what does that look like from, you know, however you do it, whether it's, you know, cohort modeling, new versus repeat, probably some combination of that as well as more of a, you know, demand plan, which is looking at it from inventory.

当然，渠道也很重要。

Obviously, you know, channel as as well.

但我觉得你得有数据，得清楚地知道，基于当前业务的增长情况。

But I think you have to have your numbers and and be like, okay, like, based on how the business is currently grow growing.

对吧？

Right?

这就是我们预计会发生的情况。

This is what we think is gonna happen.

我不能过于乐观，比如说，你知道吗？

I can't be overly optimistic where it's like, oh, you know what?

我们要做一大堆CRO相关的事情。

We're gonna do all this CRO stuff.

我们要把CAC从70美元降到40美元。

We're gonna take it from a $70 CAC to a $40 CAC.

你不能这么想。

Like, you can't do that.

但我觉得你首先得清楚自己现在的位置。

But I think you first gotta know where you're at.

然后，如果你不喜欢现状，你就得做出一些改变。

And then, you know, if you don't like it, like, you gotta make some changes.

我不喜欢我现在看到的这一切，而要达到我在未来两年想要实现的数字，这其实是另一回事。

Like, I don't like everything that I'm seeing right now and and to get to really the numbers that I wanna get to in the next two years, like I mean, that's that's actually the other thing.

我不确定你们计划得有多远。

We're trying I don't know how far out you guys plan.

我肯定Hexaclad在这个阶段规划得更长远，但我们的业务比你们俩都新。

I'm sure Hexaclad plans further at at this stage, but we're, you know, we're newer business than both of guys.

我不确定我们是否需要一个五年的路线图。

Like, I don't know if we need a five year road map.

但现阶段，我们需要两到三年的规划，而且它总会发生变化。

We need a two to three at at this point though, you know, and it's always gonna be changed.

我觉得我在这方面太过短期主义了。

And I'm like, we I think we've I've been too short term in it.

但我觉得，财务计划是一回事，而从营销计划的角度来看，比如我经常在推特上分享这一点，今天我们要开董事会，所以是复盘。

But so I think, you know, the financial plan is one thing, but I think from a marketing plan, it's like, if here's how I, you know, I share I I I tweet about this a little bit, but like, first for we have a board meeting today and so it's review.

对吧？

Right?

这就是我们现在的情况。

Here's here's where we're at.

这是我们的数据，你知道的，分析结果。

Here's our numbers, you know, analysis.

这就是原因。

Here's why.

对吧？

Right?

比如，康纳，你在亚马逊这块做得非常好。

Like, Connor, you did a really good example, a really good job with like the Amazon stuff.

对吧？

Right?

你不能只是说这个下降了或者上升了。

You can't just be like, this is down or this is up.

这必须是，这就是原因。

It's gotta be like, here's here's why.

这是数据。

Here's data.

这是一种直觉，也是一种预感。

Here's an intuition, and here's a hunch.

对吧？

Right?

所以，我觉得我们有很多地方做得不够好，我们希望在这方面有所提升，你知道的。

And so there is a bunch of things that I think that we are not doing well that we wanna get better at, you know.

我们并没有跟上社交媒体平台的变化，你知道的。

We are not necessarily adapting with social platform changes, you know.

我们作为品牌，没有调整我们的渠道策略。

We're not changing our channel strategy as a brand.

我们没有以正确的方式或在正确的地方出现。

We're not showing up in the right ways or places.

对吧？

Right?

这就是原因，然后突然间。

That's why and then boom.

这是行动计划。

Here's here's action plan.

这和我期望我的增长总监做的是一样的，你知道的。

And it's the same thing, like, I would expect from, like, you know, my director of growth.

嘿。

Hey.

这是我们在本月的进展情况。

Here's how we're pacing for the for the month.

这是我认为的原因。

Here's why I think.

这是我要采取的措施。

Here's what I'm gonna do about it.

我觉得无论处于什么层级，每个人都应该对此负责。

Like, I think anyone should be accountable to that whatever level.

我虽然对整个公司负责，但我认为每个人都应该能够做到这一点，并向自己管辖范围内的上级展示。

I'm just responsible for the whole company, but I think anyone should really be able to have that and show to their their higher ups of whatever their jurisdiction is.

所以，这就是我们要做的。

So it's here's what we're gonna do.

我这里有大约14个重点事项。

I got essentially 14 big rocks.

我知道你们称之为基石，就是我们真正要聚焦并改变的14件事。

I know you call it cornerstones, like 14 things that we're really gonna focus on and and change.

组织计划：这是我们为实现目标需要的人才。

Org plan, here's who we're gonna need to do it.

这是我们所需要的新岗位。

Here's, you know, new roles we're gonna need.

这是我们组织结构需要的调整，以及财务计划。

Here's changes of our org we're gonna need, and then financial plan.

然后这就变成了我们的预算。

Like, that then it goes into a to a budget for us.

好吧。

And it's like, alright.

如果这件事成功了，这就是我们需要投入的资本。

If this goes successful, like, here's here's the the capital investment that that that's gonna take.

这就是我的做法。

So that's how I'm approaching.

再说一遍，我是CEO级别的，但从市场营销的角度来看，显然希望你们多分享一些，但很多内容都会由市场营销来推动。

Again, I'm, you know, CEO CEO level, but I think from a marketing perspective, obviously, like, definitely want you guys to share more, but a lot of that is going to be driven by, you know, marketing.

我们的渠道策略是什么？

What's our channel strategy?

我们打算怎么做？需要花多少钱？

How are we going, you know, what do we need to spend?

我们的创意策略是什么？

What's our creative strategy?

因为显然，这是其中非常重要的部分。

Because obviously, that's such a big part of it.

我们想要推出哪些新渠道？

What are new channels we want to be launching?

所有这类事情。

All that kind of stuff.

为了澄清一下，财务计划基本上就是按月划分的收入和支出目标，涵盖你关心的任何维度，比如回头客、用户分群等。

And just to clarify, financial plan, basically, like, revenue and spend targets by month across whatever dimensions you care about returning customer, cohort based, etcetera.

完整的损益表，但没错，这是很大一部分

Full p and l, but but, yeah, that's a big part of

。

it.

嗯。

Yeah.

嗯。

Yeah.

完全正确。

Totally.

组织计划，或者说，我其实想弄清楚它们是如何相互关联的。

Org plan, what are the or actually, maybe I'm trying to think how they ladder up into one another.

财务计划，14个你想改进的方面。

Financial plan, 14 things that you wanna improve.

我喜欢这些。

Love those.

而组织计划则是，你需要哪些人来执行财务计划以及你想要改进的其他任何事情？

And then org plan is, like, what are the people you need to do both the financial plan and whatever else you you need to be improving?

是的。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

我觉得这是个不错的点。

Think that's a good one.

康纳，你们是怎么考虑这个问题的？

Connor, how are you guys thinking about it?

或者，再问一个问题。

Or or or the the just a question again.

作为Hexaglide的增长负责人，你觉得呢？

What what are you as head of growth at Hexaglide?

在年底前，进入2026年之前，你认为最重要的是要确定什么？

What do you feel is most important to nail down before the end of this year going into 2026?

我觉得去年挺有意思的，因为我们做了超级碗的营销活动。

I think well, last year is funny because we had the Super Bowl campaign.

所以，我们很难平衡年底的总结工作和2026年的规划工作。

So, like, we got it it was tough to, like, balance all the the year end wrap and then also the 2026 planning stuff.

所以今年情况有点不同。

So this year, it's a little different.

我认为招聘计划 definitely 需要把这些事情彻底理清楚。

I think hiring plans, like, definitely need to have that stuff really dialed in.

不是每一个细节都必须完全确定，但至少要有招聘计划的雏形，明确你的预算大致范围。

Not not every last detail needs to be figured out, but, like, having your hiring plans dialed in, at least having some semblance of what your budget is.

如果你连总收入和广告投放目标都没有，就不可能在一月份顺利起步。

I mean, you can't hit the ground running in January if you don't, like, have some total revenue and ad spend targets.

所以这两件事你 definitely 需要完成2025年的复盘，不仅要做完工作，还要消化并真正理解这些数据——数据到底在告诉你关于业务的什么信息？

So those two things definitely you definitely need to have your 2025 recapping done and, like, have not only have done the work, but also have ingested the work and really understand, like, what are the data what what are the data points saying about your business?

哪些地方出错了？

What went wrong?

哪些方面没有达到预期？

What didn't what didn't go that well?

根据这些数据，哪些方面表现得特别好？

What did went really well based on those data points?

我认为所有这些事情，你都必须在进入新年之前完成。

I think all those things you have to have, like, done headed into headed into the new year.

我不认为你必须把2026年的计划每一处细节都完全定下来，但你应该已经取得了不少进展，计划也已初具雏形，只需要再花一两周时间最终敲定，并与团队坐下来明确计划内容。

I don't think you necessarily need to have, like, every last bit of your 2026 plan completely finished, but you should have, like, a lot of momentum on it and, like, it should be coming together to the point where you need, like, another week or two to, like, really finalize it and sit down with the team and, like, distribute what the plan is.

所以我们现在的情况是，招聘计划已经基本确定了。

So that that's where we're at right now where we're, like, we have our hiring plans pretty dialed in.

我们正在逐步敲定全年的预算。

We're starting to, like, have our budgets for the year dialed in.

接下来两周，我们将全面投入报告和复盘工作。

We're about to get, like, headfirst into reporting and recapping over the next two weeks.

然后，我们也会有一点重叠，大概一周或两周后就开始。

And then we'll also kind of with a little bit of overlap, like, probably starting in a week or two.

我一直在做大量2026年的规划，现在也开始与团队会面，讨论我认为那些关键的——我称之为‘目标’的东西。

Like, I've been doing a lot of 2026 planning, but, like, starting to meet with the team to talk about kinda, like, what I think are the big, I call them, like, objectives.

我觉得这和‘岩石’是一回事。

I think it's the same thing as rocks.

就是今年最重要的几件大事。

Like, here are the big, like, things for the year.

然后，当我们进入一月份时，我们将真正开始围绕这些目标进行细化和落地。

And then we'll, like, really start to crystallize and operationalize around those as we hit, like, the January.

黑色星期五，你即将大获成功。

Black Friday, you're about to crush it.

真正的挑战是保持黑色星期五之后、假期之后，一直到明年全年的势头。

The real job is keeping that momentum going past Black Friday, past holiday, and all the way into next year.

Prussian 帮助品牌将旺季的成果转化为可预测且盈利的增长动力。

Prussian helps brands turn peak season wins into predictable, profitable velocity.

通过一套专有的机器学习模型和以因果性为核心的验证层，Prussian 揭示了真正推动 Lyft 增长的因素。

Powered by a suite of proprietary machine learning models and a causality first validation layer, reveals what actually drove Lyft.

它整合了调查数据。

It combines surveys.

它结合了多触点归因、增量分析，以及对未来一美元媒体投入将带来的实际增量利润的预测。

It combines multi touch attribution and incrementality, and then a forecast for your next dollar in media will drive real incremental profit.

Cotery、GUESS、HexClad、Jones Road Beauty、Mary Roos 等众多顶级品牌都在使用 Prussian 来量化 Shopify 和亚马逊零售渠道的溢出效应，以便团队精准确定再投资方向。

Top brands like Cotery, GUESS, HexClad, Jones Road Beauty, Mary Roos, and many more are using Prussian to quantify halo effects across Shopify, Amazon retail, so their teams know exactly where to reinvest.

那么，Prussian 能帮助你回答哪些实际问题？

So what actual questions can Prussian help you answer?

让我们深入探讨一下。

Let's dig into it a little bit.

第一个问题：在购物季，我需要增加、减少还是重新分配预算？

Question number one, do I need to increase, decrease, or reallocate spend for the shopping season?

Prussian 能显示在预算增加或减少的情况下，推动第四季度最佳表现的最优媒体组合。

Prussian shows the optimal media mix to drive the strongest q four performance whether your budget grows or shrinks.

第二个问题：我该把额外的第四季度预算投到哪里？

Question number two, where should I put additional q four budget?

Prescient 基于当前的 VFCM 动态、你的行业以及最优广告预算分配，提供推荐方案。

Prescient delivers recommendations based on current VFCM dynamics, your vertical, and your optimal ad spend allocation.

第三个问题：Prescient 能否衡量跨渠道效应，尤其是 Shopify 和 Amazon 之间的效应？

Question number three, can Prescient measure cross channel effects, especially between Shopify and Amazon?

可以。

Yes.

Prescient 独特地追踪了两个平台上的光环效应和广告影响，揭示了何时应减少投入，何时应加大投入。

Prescient uniquely tracks halo effects and ad impact across both platforms revealing where to dial back and where to double down.

这实际上是 Hexcut 最初与 Prescient 合作要解决的问题之一：了解在 .com 和 Amazon 上广告支出的总体影响。

This is actually one of the very first problems that Hexcut onboarded with Prescient to solve is understanding the total impact across both .com and Amazon over ad spend.

Prescient 的模型基于 60 亿美元的广告支出进行基准测试，因此你获得的建议并非只是理论。

Prussian's models are benchmarked against $6,000,000,000 in ad spend, so the recommendations you are getting aren't just theory.

它们实际上已经经过数十亿美元真实媒体预算的验证。

They've actually been tested against billions of real media dollars.

如果你准备了解下一美元广告投入将带来最大利润的渠道，请访问 prussianai.com/operators，使用 Prescient 预测你的增长。

And if you are ready to see where your next dollar media will drive the most profit, visit prussianai.com/operators to forecast your growth with Prussian.

好的。

Okay.

我有一个想法，因为我们本周在洛杉矶与高管们进行了两天的会议，目前正在开展大量 2026 年规划工作。

So the one thought that I had, because we just we had we did two days this week with the executives in Los Angeles, and we're doing a bunch of 2026 planning.

我同意你的观点，康纳。

And I I I'm with you, Connor.

或者我们都达成一致了，但感觉我们现在好像在同时处理多个时间线。

Or we're all on the same page here, but, like, it feels like it's all kind of like, I feel like at Ridge we're working on multiple timelines right now.

对吧？

Right?

比如，我们现在的付费媒体团队正忙于处理假日促销的收尾工作。

Like our paid media team right now is like, they are worried about the day to day of closing out our holiday sale.

我们还在担心第四季度的复盘。

We're worried about our postmortem on Q four.

我觉得这特别重要，因为你们刚经历了一年中最关键的时期，趁记忆还新鲜，应该立即审计和复盘哪些有效、哪些无效，以便为明年积累所有信息。

I think that's a really important one, where like you don't wanna overlook, you just had your most important period while everything's fresh in mind, like you should be auditing and debriefing on what worked, what didn't, so you have all that information for next year.

我们的目标是在12月18日前完成这项工作。

Our goal is to have that done by December 18.

然后你还有2026年的高层目标，但同时你提到了超级碗，我觉得这个点很好。

And then you have, yeah, high level objectives for 2026, but then at the same time, you bring up the Super Bowl, which I think is a good one.

比如，我们一月份就要上线一些项目，但其实早在一个半月前就应该启动了。

Like, we have things going live in January that we needed to start a month and a half ago.

我们需要确立一个2026年的目标。

And we need to we needed to have what is essentially a 2026 goal.

如果我们希望这些内容在明年一月上线，那应该在三个月前就决定好了。

If we want that to go live in January, that should have been decided three months ago.

所以我忍不住觉得，最近Rich在同时处理多个时间线方面确实进步了很多，因为过去我认为自己在处理这些问题时太过单一化了。

So I can't help but feel, I've been feeling recently Rich has actually gotten way better at working on those multiple timelines, because historically, I think I've been too monolithic in how I've approached it.

我们以前总是到1月3日才开始行动，而对一月的营销活动几乎没有提前准备，因为我们当时全神贯注于第四季度的工作。

We used to show up January 3 or whatever, and have not worked on the January campaigns that much, because we were just so focused on Q four.

而现在，我们的时间和团队已经分散在如此多的不同时间线上，我觉得我们的2026年目标早就该早早规划好了。

And it's only now at this point where it's like our time and our team is just distributed across so many different timelines that I feel like a lot of our 2026 objectives had to have been laid out a long time ago.

你们有没有这种感觉？

Do you guys do you guys feel that at all?

而且我觉得这很大程度上是由财务因素决定的，对吧？

It just and and I guess it's dictated a lot by, like, accounting, right?

比如税务，我们需要完成财务结算。

Like taxes, where it's like, yeah, have a financial gear that we need to close.

但实际上，组织的日常运作需要分布在一种完全不同的灵活时间线上。

When in reality, like a lot of like the day to day of the org has to be spread on like a way different sort of fluid timeline.

是的。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

而且我不是想说我们的完整计划已经完成了。

And and I don't I don't I don't mean to like say that like we have our full plan even done.

是的。

Yeah.

我觉得你刚才说得非常好。

I think you you articulated that really well.

我以前觉得我们需要在12月31日前完成全部预算。

Like, I used to think like we needed our full budget done like December 31.

实际上，我们甚至到一月、二月才最终敲定我们正式的预算。

Like, we actually finalized it in in January, even like in February of like our official.

但确实，你没法马上开始。

But yeah, you can't get started.

比如，如果你有一月的发布计划，我们就得尽量安排三到四个月的时间线。

Like, if you have a January launch, you gotta we we we try to be on a three, four month timeline.

所以我们现在正在拍摄，同时也在进行数月的战略规划。

So, you know, we're we're doing shoots now and we're doing strategy for months.

而产品开发的时间线是最长的。

And and it's product development timelines are are the longest.

这些项目通常要提前两年就开始规划。

Those are often two years out.

所以这些项目在推进时，运营团队的工作内容则完全不同。

So those are working on then, you know, operations team has has something different.

而且我认为，根据你所处的层级，比如如果你是经理或媒体购买员，你目前可能还是主要关注眼前的事情。

And also I think level where you are where, you know, if you're if you're, you know, manager or media buyer, you're you're probably mostly focused on right now still held it.

所以如果你是增长部门的总监或副总裁，你会想：好吧，我得跟进当前的进展，但也得为更远的未来做规划。

So if you're a director VP of growth, you're you're thinking, alright, I gotta I gotta check-in on what's going on now, but I gotta plan a little further out.

如果你是高管层，你可能就会想：我们2028年要做什么？

And then if you're c suite, you're probably like, hey, like, what what are we doing in 2028?

至少你的大脑里有一部分会思考这个问题。

Like, at least there's probably some part of your brain that's thinking about that.

我敢保证，你的增长经理根本不会考虑2028年的事。

I guarantee you, your manager of growth is not thinking about 2028.

完全正确。

Totally.

但这也正是初创公司的特点。

But but that's also a startup too.

对吧？

Right?

不管处于哪个层级，你都得知道，自己今天的工作节奏是什么。

Like, no no matter what level, like, there's some there's there's some amount of, hey, I I still need to know what my pacing is today.

当然，100%同意。

Well, 100%.

不，这没办法回避。

No, there's there's no way around it.

这就是为什么我一直说，新年是我最喜欢的节日之一，虽然这有点跑题，但新年是我最喜欢的节日，因为我觉得文化上我们把它当作一个重新塑造自我的时刻，你可以设定新的目标和决心，完全可以这么做。

That's why I'm like, like, I always say that New Year's New Year's is one of my favorite holidays, because like, there's a little bit of a side tangent, but like New Year's is one of my favorite holidays because it's so, I think it's so cool that culturally we take it as this moment to like feel like we can reinvent ourselves, and you set these new goals and resolutions, you can set that.

我觉得，文化上我们围绕这一点来聚焦，真是太棒了。

Like, it's I think it's a it's just awesome that we like culturally center ourselves around that.

但反馈总是说：你应该一直这样做。

But then the feedback is always like, well you should be kinda doing that all the time.

你不应该等到年底才去设定我们的目标，我们在Ridge有12个目标。

Like you shouldn't wait till the end of the year to like set your we have 12 things at Ridge.

我们经常讨论这个问题，比如科迪，你要每个月重新预测下个月的计划，不断调整策略。

And we talk about this a lot where it's like, can be, know, Cody, you reforecast the next month on like a monthly basis, where you're like constantly adjusting the strategy.

在三月我们结束周年促销后，我们会从中吸取经验，并调整2026年的计划。

There are things, once we wrap up our anniversary sale in March, that we'll learn from that we'll adjust the 2026 plan for.

所以我觉得挺有意思的，我们花了很多时间思考这些年度计划，但我觉得季度性的调整同样重要。

So I just, I think it's kind of funny, We at least spend a lot of time thinking about these yearly plans, when I almost think like the quarterly adjustments are just as important.

至少在Bridge，我们可以改进围绕这一点的系统。

And at least at Bridge, think we can like improve around the systems around that.

太棒了。

Sick.

好的。

Alright.

我得去

I gotta

同意。

Agreed.

没有备注。

No notes.

同意这一点。

Agreed with that.

是的。

Yeah.

100%。

100%.

好的。

Okay.

康纳，在更具体的目标设定方面，你过去在播客中提到过一些。

Connor, in terms of more tactical goal setting, You've talked about this a bit on the podcast in the past.

你能详细说说你们在Hexpad是怎么做的吗？

Can you walk through how you guys do it at Hexpad?

我总是拿你的‘卓越金字塔’开玩笑。

I always I tease you about the Pyramid of Excellence.

我忘了那叫什么了，但没错。

I forget what it's called, but Yeah.

给我们讲讲吧。

Walk us through it.

没错。

Yeah.

嗯。

Yeah.

所以我们被教导过一个叫做清晰金字塔的框架。

So we I I was taught this framework called the pyramid of clarity.

它只是一个目标设定框架，就像OKR一样，只是一个目标设定框架。

It's just a goal setting framework, the same way that OKRs are, are it's just a goal setting framework.

它提供了一种逐步的方法，让你有所依托。

It's just like gives you a step by step kind of approach and like something to lean on.

我不认为有对错之分。

I don't think there's a right or wrong way.

但我喜欢这个框架。

But we I like that framework.

我认为是Asana的团队提出的，它对我们很有效。

I think the guys from Asana, like came up with it, and it works for us.

它的不同层级主要包括：你有使命，这有点像作为品牌你想要实现什么，对吧？

So it basically the the different levels of it are, you have like your mission, which is kind of like, what are you trying to accomplish as a brand, right?

对我们来说，就是想把高端的、让烹饪变得愉快的体验带给每个人，把高品质的厨具推向世界。

So like for us, it's like, we're trying to like bring premium like, bring game bring make cooking enjoyable for everyone, like bring premium cookware out to the world.

那么你的策略就是你打算如何实现它。

Your strategies then are like how you're gonna do it.

这些策略本质上是过滤器。

So these are like, meant to be filters.

对吧？

Right?

你所决定做的每一件事，都应该通过这些战略过滤器之一。

It's like everything that you decide to do should like pass through one of these strategic filters.

比如我们去年的一个策略就是：只播下能长成参天大树的种子。

So like a good example of of our one of our strategies last year was like, only plant seeds that can go grow into giants.

这就像一个战略过滤器。

So, that's a like a strategic filter.

所以，科迪，你经常提到这一点，过去你曾犯过投资于没有增长潜力的渠道的错误。

So, like, Cody, you've talked a lot about this where, like, in the past, you've made the mistake of investing in channels that didn't have upside.

对于我们Hexcloud来说，这是一个非常有用的筛选标准，因为我们总是不断收到关于新渠道、新媒体机会的邀约。

For us at Hexcloud, like, that's a really helpful filter because we're always getting, like, hit up about new channels, new media opportunities.

然后我们再往下深入一层。

And then what what then we move down one level.

我现在正在做的，就是在回顾2025年时，把我们的战略筛选标准写下来，我正在撰写这些战略筛选标准。

So like, that's what I'm doing right now is like, I'm writing like our strategic filters kind of as we recap 2025, like, I'm writing our strategic filters.

然后你再往下走一层，那就是目标。

And then you go down one level, which is the objectives.

我觉得这大概相当于你们所说的‘岩石’。

I think that's, like, probably the equivalent of your guys' rocks.

目标就是那些真正意义上的‘只种能长成参天大树的种子’。

The objectives are, like, the actual, like, only plant seeds that can go into giants.

这本身在战术层面上并没有实际意义，但目标更像是沿途的战术路标。

That doesn't actually mean anything, like, tactically speaking, but the objectives are more of, like, the tactical goalposts along the way.

比如，我们再回到‘只种能长成参天大树的种子’这个例子。

So, for example, like, let's go back to that only plant seeds that can grow into giants example.

这将相当于战略。

That would be like the strategy.

然后，与之对应的、层层递进的目标可能是：我们想在亚马逊的非亚马逊媒体机会上投入x美元，或者我们想通过对照实验来验证Pinterest的效果，并至少投入x美元——这更像是一种战术性目标。

And then an objective that would ladder into that would be, like, we want to spend x dollars on Amazon's non, like Amazon media opportunities, or hey, we want to, we want to, like, lawn, like, we want to validate Pinterest with a holdout test and spend at least x like that would be more of like a tactical objective.

核心理念是，你每年设定的每一个目标或每一个‘岩石’（无论你怎么称呼它）都必须与至少一项战略保持一致。

And the idea is that each objective you set or each rock, whatever you want to call it for the year has to be strategy aligned with at least one strategy.

然后你再往下推进。

And then then you move in.

这就是我在规划2026年时努力填好的内容。

So that's like, that's what I try to have filled out for our 2026 planning.

这就是我和团队一起审查的内容。

Like, that's what I'm reviewing with the team.

我是负责撰写战略过滤标准的人。

I'm the one writing the strategic filters.

然后我会和团队一起审阅这些内容。

And then I I'll review those with the team.

然后我会为增长团队的每个部分制定自己的目标，并让每个渠道负责人也这样做。

And then I will write my own objectives for each part of the growth team and have each channel lead do the same.

我们会聚在一起讨论并达成一致。

We'll come together and talk about it and agree on it.

这就是我在进入2026年时努力做到的事情。

That's what I try to like, have done as we go into 2026.

然后是基础部分。

And then basic.

是的。

Yeah.

你能分享一下你正在考虑的2026年的一些筛选标准吗？

Do you have are you able to share any of the twenty twenty six filters that you're thinking about?

当然，让我回到你文档中的一个问题，康纳，我们来找找

Yeah, let me so, like, going going back to one of your questions from the doc here, Connor, you let's find

在这里。

it here.

我太喜欢这个了，我特别喜欢这一个。

I love that I love that one.

别种那些不会长成什么的树？

Don't plant trees that won't turn what is it?

参天大树？

Giants?

不会长成

That won't turn

参天大树。

into giants.

只种那些能长成参天大树的种子。

Only plant seeds that can that can turn into giants.

我真的很喜欢这句话，还有它表达的方式。

That's I I really like that that and just like how it's said.

是的。

Yeah.