A year later, is Trump’s investment in Intel… a win-win?

今天的节目，回顾过去这一周。

On the program today, the week that was.

说实话，这真是平淡无奇的一周。

And, honestly, it was a week.

来自美国公共媒体，这里是《市场》节目。

From American public media, this is Marketplace.

我是凯·里斯代尔，来自洛杉矶。

In Los Angeles, I'm Kai Risdale.

今天是星期五。

It is Friday today.

今天是7月24号。

This one is the July 24.

感谢大家一路相伴，一如既往。

Good as it always is to have you along, everybody.

正如我前几天说过的，这一周并没有太多数据出来。

This has not been, as I think I said a couple of days ago, a week with a whole lot of data in it.

但经济这盘棋可不只是看数据，对吧？所以我们接下来七分钟左右还有很多内容要聊。

But data is not the whole economic ballgame, you know, so we'll have plenty to do for the next seven minutes or so.

科特尼·布朗在 Axios 工作。

Courtney Brown is at Axios.

斯特西·范尼克·史密斯在彭博社。

Stacy Vanick Smith is at Bloomberg.

嘿。

Hey.

你也是。

You too.

嗨，凯。

Hi, Kai.

斯特西，

Stacy,

我先从你开始，就说说那些午夜生效的新关税吧——就是取代了午夜取消的那些关税，诸如此类的事。

I'm gonna start with you, and I'm gonna start with, the tariffs that went into effect at midnight to replace the tariffs that went away at midnight, blah blah blah.

这些细节我们都清楚。

We all know the details.

关键是这样。

Here's the thing.

在我看来，这些关税虽然对个人、小企业，甚至大企业都有影响，但现在简直就像经济背景音一样，没人当回事了。

Seems to me now that the tariffs, while impactful on an individual basis and with small businesses and, you know, big businesses too, they've kinda become like economic wallpaper.

来聊聊吧。

Discuss.

我觉得这话说得挺到位的。

I think that's a good point.

关税的问题确实已经没人关心了。

It does seem like the tariffs are dead long with the tariff situation

没错。

for sure.

不过我觉得，对消费者来说，情况还是有点不一样。

I think the difference is, though, for consumers right now.

我觉得消费者现在的情况完全不同了。

I think consumers are in a very different place.

我们从基金会拿到了数据，2025年关税每户家庭要多花大约一千美元。

We got numbers from the foundation that in 2025, tariffs cost households about a thousand dollars.

加上油价高企、通胀持续上升、工资却赶不上通胀，消费者现在买东西越来越吃力了。

I think with high gas prices, inflation continuing to climb, wages not keeping up with inflation, I think consumers are just in an increasingly difficult situation trying to pay for things.

这一千美元，今年可能还会更高，真的开始对消费者和企业产生实质性影响了。

And I think that thousand dollars, which is expected to be more this year, is really starting to change, for for consumers and businesses.

我觉得再这样下去，我们很快就要撞上天花板了。

I think maybe we're gonna get close to hitting a wall here pretty soon.

所以，Courtney，说到这个，倒不是说天花板的事，而是现在我们所有人还是得看总统的脸色行事。

Well so, Courtney, on that subject, not necessarily the wall, but what it's doing, we are all kinda still now subject to the president's whims.

对吧？

Right?

这些今天凌晨12点01分生效的关税，现在调查结束了，总统随时都能改。

I mean, these tariffs that went into effect at at 12:01 this morning, they can be changed now at the president's, discretion now that the investigations have been done.

所以，我们这边没什么确定性可言。

So there's not a lot of certainty coming our way.

是的。

Yeah.

我跟你说个关于墙纸的事，凯。

Let me tell you something about wallpaper, Kai.

要是图案难看又花哨，真的会让人很分心。

If it's ugly and if it's loud, it can be pretty distracting.

对吧？

Right?

我觉得我一些消息源可能也会用这种方式来形容关税。

And I think that's maybe how some of my sources would characterize tariffs.

对吧？

Right?

就像你说的，它们已经成了背景音，但依然非常明显。

They, as you say, have become a backdrop, but it's very clear.

这周我们学到的一点是，总统决心推进他的关税政策。

If we learned anything this week, it is that the president is committed to carrying out his tariff agenda.

他其实有几次可以退一步。

He has had a couple outs.

他本可以回头的。

He could have backtracked.

但他没有。

No.

他反而选择加码。

He decided to double down.

我还想特别感谢我的几位消息源，他们都说，特朗普总统绝不敢在中东冲突的背景下继续加征关税。

I also wanna give a shout out to my sources, several of which told me that president Trump wouldn't dare to double down on tariffs Oh, you with the backdrop of the Middle East conflict.

但他没有。

No.

他根本不可能那么做。

There's no way he would do that.

这种不确定性太多了。

It's too much uncertainty.

他面临石油危机，这推高了价格。

He's got the the oil shock, and that's driving up prices.

不会。

No.

他不会在关税问题上进一步加码。

He wouldn't double down on tariffs.

他一定会在关税问题上进一步加码。

He is going to double down on tariffs.

所以，如果你之前还有怀疑，这周就清楚了，他们对贸易政策是认真的。

And so if you had any doubt, this week shows you that they are very serious about their trade agenda.

斯黛西，我待会儿要跟你聊的下一项是这么写的：石油？战争？

Stacy, the next bullet item on my list of things to talk to you to about says, just back to what Courtney said, the bullet point literally is oil, question mark, war, question mark.

这差不多就是2026年至今的写照了。

That's pretty much a good sum up of twenty twenty six so far.

你明白吧。

You know?

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，你听我说。

I mean, listen.

石油只是另一个棘手的问题。

Oil is just another tough situation.

这个月早些时候，我们看到了一些相当不错的通胀数据。

We got some pretty promising inflation numbers earlier this month.

没错。

Yep.

现在看来，霍尔木兹海峡又关闭了。

And now it seems like Strait Of Hormuz is closed again.

油价又回到了每桶90美元左右。

Oil's back up around $90 a barrel.

你在这档节目里多次提到过，油价会影响方方面面。

As you've talked about so many times on the show, oil prices seep into everything.

这对消费者和企业来说都不是什么好消息。

So that is just not good news for consumers or for businesses.

我们好像一直陷在原地，没什么进展。

It just seems like we're in a real holding pattern here.

每次刚看到一点希望，事情快要有个了结，结果又回到原点。

Every time it seems like there's progress and things are about to come to conclusion, we're right back where we started.

明白了。

Alright.

但是，考特尼，你听我说。

But, Courtney, look.

整体来看，经济状况。

The economy, generally speaking.

对吧？

Right?

你瞧。

And look.

人们压力很大。

People are stressed.

劳动力市场招聘少、裁员也少，但经济还在增长。

There's a low fire, low hire labor market, but the economy is growing.

经济迟早会衰退，但不是明天就来。

There's going to be a recession at some point, but it's not coming tomorrow.

总的来说，也没那么糟，你说是吧？

All things considered, you know, not terrible?

如果你跟我一样，整天盯着图表上的线上下波动，那确实不算太糟。

Not terrible if you're like me and you spend a lot of time looking at lines on a chart go down or go up.

但我觉得，就像斯泰西说的，普通消费者在现实经济中的感受，那真是挺难熬的。

But I think, you know, to Stacy's point about the way that the the consumers are feeling out there in the real economy, I think it's gnarly.

对吧？

Right?

我一直想不通，从数据指标来看，经济怎么还能表现得这么好。

And I think it's it continues to confound me how well the economy is doing on, you know, an indicator basis.

刚刚公布的失业救济申请人数，是自上世纪六十年代末以来最少的。

We just got jobless claims that showed the lowest or the fewest claims since, you know, the late nineteen sixties.

但消费者信心却跌到了谷底。

That's But consumer sentiment is in the dumps.

大家都不开心。

People are unhappy.

那这种情绪会对经济造成什么影响呢？

And so, you know, what are the economic effects of that?

消费者会不会开始缩减开支？

Do we get to the point where consumers start to pull back?

还没发生，但不代表以后不会发生。

Hasn't happened yet, but doesn't mean it won't happen.

对。

Right.

没错。

Right.

对。

Right.

不过说实话，我本人一直等着消费者开始缩减开支，至少好长一段时间了——当然我不替你说话，可每次密歇根大学发布消费者情绪报告，我们都抱怨大家情绪差到极点。

Although I will say we have been looking for the I personally, I won't speak for you too, have been looking for consumers to pull back for a good long while now, and yet we keep we we say we're cranky as all get out when when the University of Michigan comes and says, how is your sentiment?

你感觉怎么样？

How do you feel?

可大家还是照花不误。

And yet we keep spending money.

是吧，斯泰西？

Right, Stacy?

这就是当前经济中消费者的真实状态。

That's that's the consumer reality in this economy.

这现象确实挺让人费解的。

It has been very strange to watch.

我总在想，好吧。

I keep thinking, okay.

接下来该轮到另一件事发生了。

Here's when the other shoe's gonna drop.

这正好跟你提到的消费者情绪有关。

It exactly because of what you said about consumer sentiment.

我们看到实际工资，也就是说，工资赶不上通胀了。

We see real wages, meaning, you know, wages aren't keeping up with inflation.

我一直预期消费者支出会收缩。

I keep expecting to see consumer spending get pulled back.

但到目前为止还没发生，而且消费者债务还在上升。

It has not happened so far, but also consumer debt is rising.

当然，我们也知道，借贷成本也在上涨。

And, of course, as we know, borrowing costs are on the rise too.

所以我不确定这种状况还能撑多久，但我们一直像冠军一样花钱，根本没怎么节制。

So I don't know how much longer this can go on, but we have, like, kept we've been spending like champions, and we have not pulled back really.

说到借贷成本，考特尼·布朗，这正是你进场债券市场的好机会，这周我们一直聊到这个话题。

Speaking of borrowing costs, Courtney Brown, here comes your chance to dip into the bond market, which we've been talking about a little bit this week.

我知道。

I know.

我知道。

I know.

你难道不喜欢上这个节目吗？

Don't you love coming on this program?

你看，三十年期国债利率已经连续一个月维持在5%了。

So, look, the thirty year's the thirty year's been at 5% for, like, a month.

十年期利率正在上升。

The tenure is rising.

不仅是政府，整个经济体系的借贷成本都在上涨。

Bar and cross costs, not just for the government, but across this economy are going up.

我不确定有多少人真正注意到了这一点。

And I'm not sure how many people are paying enough attention to that.

我在关注呢。

I'm paying attention.

这周我们报道了几则相关消息。

We had a few stories this week.

那当然了。

Of course you are.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

我确实挺享受的。

I I have fun.

我保证。

I promise.

我们有

We had

这周我们聊了几个关于这种现象的故事，我觉得接下来的美联储会议，我想问问美联储主席凯文·沃尔什。

a few stories this week on this phenomenon, and I think going into next week's Fed meeting, this is my question for Fed chair Kevin Walsh.

我的问题是，这些借贷成本的上升，对美联储的前景到底有多大影响？

Mean, how much do these rising borrowing costs affect the Fed outlook?

我的意思是，是不是市场已经在替美联储做它原本该做的事了？

I mean, is this doing the work that the Fed maybe would have have done?

既然债券市场已经在帮他们完成一部分工作，那他们现在还用得着这么激进吗？

Do they not have to be as aggressive now because the bond market's kind of doing some of that work for them?

这确实是个关键问题。

I mean, that is a key question.

不过有一点专业细节是，如果你仔细看看那些市场驱动的通胀预期指标。

But just one nerdy thing is that when you look under the hood a little bit, you check out, you know, market based indicators of inflation expectations.

这些指标目前看起来还算正常。

Those look okay.

没错。

Right.

所以并不是通胀机制在推高收益率。

And so it's it's it's not the inflation mechanism that's pushing yields up.

而是投资者要求政府支付更高的回报才愿意借钱给他们。

It's like investors are demanding more more of a premium to lend the government money.

对吧？

Right?

我们看到的就是这种情况。

That's what we're seeing.

那美联储该怎么应对呢？

And so how does the Fed respond to that?

这是个大问题。

Huge question.

有。

Have.

斯黛西，三十秒。

Stacy, thirty seconds.

你打算在韦尔什主席下周三的新闻发布会上问他什么问题？

What is your question for chairman Walsh come next Wednesday in his press conference?

你打算怎么在这么两难的处境中权衡取舍？

How are you gonna navigate, like, between this rock and hard place that you're in?

我觉得你很难加息，因为就业市场有点疲软，借贷成本已经很高了。

I feel like you can't really raise interest rates because the job market's kind of anemic and borrowing costs are already quite high.

但降息又风险很大，尤其是通胀虽然终于开始回落，却可能因为油价上涨而再度抬头。

But cutting interest rates seem really risky, especially with inflation, finally coming down but potentially on the rise because of oil prices.

我就是想知道，你到底在关注哪些指标？

I just I I would wanna know, like, what are you looking at?

你最看重的是什么？

What are you prioritizing?

你优先考虑的是什么？

Prioritizing?

他肯定会说类似‘很抱歉’这样的话。

And and he will say some version of, I'm sorry.

这听起来像是在要前瞻指引，但我不会给你任何前瞻指引。

That sounds like a request for forward guidance, and I'm not gonna give you any forward guidance.

对吧？

Right?

他肯定会这么说。

That's what he's gonna say.

明白吗？

Alright?

我们得走了。

We we gotta go.

彭博社的斯泰西·曼尼奇米思。

Stacy Mannichmith at Bloomberg.

Axios的布列塔尼·布朗。

Brittany Brown at Axios.

待会儿见。

See you two later.

再见。

Bye.

谢谢，凯。

Thanks, Kai.

谢谢，凯。

Thanks, Kai.

哦，

Oh,

天哪。

man.

华尔街本周收盘情况。

Wall Street to end the week.

科技股又不行了，而石油交易员们还在相信那些关于中东停火谈判的传言。

Technology stocks are apparently no good again, and oil traders continue to believe the rumors that get floated about ceasefire talks in The Middle East.

真是服了。

Go figure.

等到了那儿再细说数字。

Details numbers when we get there.

我知道，这周我们一直在聊债券市场。

We have, I know, been talking about the bond market a lot this week.

我刚跟考特尼聊过。

I just did it with Courtney.

不好意思。

Sorry.

但不是因为这不重要才说抱歉。

Not sorry because it really matters.

我们主要聊的是债券收益率，它最近因为几个原因一直在上升。

We've been talking about bond yields specifically, which have been rising for a couple of reasons.

第一，通胀还是老样子，顽固地居高不下，市场预期美联储会把利率维持在高位更久。

One, inflation is still and again being stubbornly persistent, so expectations are the Fed's gonna keep interest rates higher for longer.

还有政府不断累积的那笔巨额债务。

And there's all that debt the government keeps piling on.

昨天我和格雷格·伊普聊过这个事。

Greg Ip and I were talking about that yesterday.

政府借钱的成本有多高，直接影响到整个经济的借贷费用。

How much the government has to pay to borrow, of course, hits borrowing costs across the economy.

我昨天提到过三十年期房贷，房利美数据显示，平均利率达到了近一年来的最高点，企业贷款利率也可能跟着上涨。

Thirty year mortgages I mentioned yesterday, Freddie Mac says the average rate's the highest it's been in almost a year, and business loans could be headed upward too.

问题是，企业贷款没有像房利美那样的官方机构来追踪数据。

Thing is, there's no equivalent to Freddie Mac to track them.

所以《市场》节目的贾斯汀·霍自己联系了几家贷款机构，做了一次实地调研。

So Marketplace's Justin Ho called some lenders and did a survey of his own.

企业贷款和房贷的操作方式并不完全一样。

Business loans don't work exactly the same way mortgages do.

房贷利率通常是三十年固定不变，但企业贷款的利率变动频繁，这是伊利诺伊州拉塞勒州立银行首席贷款官克里斯·邓肯说的。

The interest rate on a mortgage is typically fixed for thirty years, but the rate on a business loan changes pretty frequently, says Chris Duncan, chief lending officer at LaSalle State Bank in Illinois.

我可以签一个五年期的贷款，但利率每年都会调整。

So I can have a five year term on a loan with an interest rate that changes every year.

因此，邓肯说，商业贷款不像房贷那样与长期国债直接挂钩。

As a result, Duncan says business loans aren't directly tied to long term treasuries the way mortgages are.

相反，它们通常与所谓的优惠利率挂钩，而这个利率紧密跟随美联储的动向。

Instead, they're often tied to something called the prime rate, which closely tracks what the Federal Reserve does.

所以当美联储加息时，你会发现优惠利率也会跟着上调。

So when the Fed comes in and they, raise their rate, you'll see that that prime rate will move.

当美联储降息时，优惠利率也会随之下降。

When they lower their rate, that prime rate moves down.

所以这两者之间的关联非常直接。

So that's a very direct correlation.

邓肯说，过去几个月他的银行商业贷款利率没怎么变，因为美联储一直维持利率不变。

Duncan says at his bank, interest on business loans hasn't changed much over the last few months because the Fed has held rates steady.

但邓肯认为，利率接下来会上升。

But Duncan says he thinks they're headed up.

我觉得这是由通胀以及美联储公开市场委员会必须考虑的种种因素推动的。

And I think that's getting forced by inflation and and all the factors that the Fed Open Market Committee has to take into consideration.

企业贷款利率可能上涨的另一个原因是，银行可能不得不为储户支付更高的利息。

Another reason rates on business loans could rise is because banks might have to start paying more interest to depositors.

特别是如果美联储为了抑制通胀而加息，存款利率也会跟着变动。

Particularly, if we see the Fed raise interest rates to kinda calm inflation, you'll see some deposit interest rates move.

大卫·雷林是明尼苏达州日出银行的首席执行官。

David Reiling is the CEO of Sunrise Banks in Minnesota.

他说，企业贷款利率对存款利率特别敏感，因为银行正是用这些存款来发放贷款的。

He says rates on business loans are especially sensitive to interest on deposits since banks use those deposits to make those loans.

存款成本越高，给小企业客户的贷款利率也就越高。

So the higher those deposit costs are gonna be, the higher the loan rates are gonna be for small business customers.

但社区精神银行的首席执行官布拉德·博尔顿说，现在并不是企业贷款变得更贵的好时机。

But it's not a great time for business loans to get more expensive, says Brad Bolton, CEO of Community Spirit Bank in Red Bay, Alabama.

我在阿拉巴马州农村和密西西比州东北部看到，借款人的负担因能源成本上涨而加重。

What I'm seeing here in rural Alabama and Northeast Mississippi is our borrowers are really being hampered by higher energy costs.

博尔顿说，他的许多借款人从事林业和运输业，这两个行业都消耗大量燃油。

Bolton says many of his borrowers are in the timber and trucking industries, both of which consume a lot of fuel.

所以他一直在和借款人协商，延长贷款期限，降低月供。

So he's been working with his borrowers to extend loan terms and reduce monthly payments.

你可能不得不把贷款期限从通常的四十八个月延长到六十个月，只为让小企业主的还款压力没那么大。

Maybe you're having to stretch that term out to, you know, sixty months instead of where you would normally finance it for forty eight just to keep the payment manageable for that small business owner.

让还款压力可控，有助于银行留住客户。

And keeping payments manageable helps the bank keep its customers.

我是Justin Ho，来自Marketplace。

I'm Justin Ho for Marketplace.

英特尔昨天公布了盈利情况。

Intel reported profits yesterday.

上个季度销售额增长了25%，是十五年多来最大的增幅。

Sales up 25% last quarter, the biggest increase in more than fifteen years.

这家曾经的巨头公司，如今总算有了起色。

It is quite the turnaround for the once mighty company.

毕竟，正是它让硅谷有了‘硅’这个名号。

It helped put the silicon in Silicon Valley after all.

但英特尔在过去十多年里过得并不顺遂。

But Intel has had a rough past decade or so.

这对美国纳税人来说意义重大，因为他们现在持有英特尔近百分之十的股份。

This is of more than passing interest to American taxpayers who now own nearly 10% of that company.

特朗普政府以国家资本主义的方式介入，用大约90亿美元的补贴换取了这些股份——这些补贴是英特尔在拜登时期通过《芯片法案》获得的。

The Trump administration's adventures in state capitalism took the stake in exchange for about $9,000,000,000 in grants that Intel got from the CHIPS Act back in the Biden years.

顺便说一句，这笔股份如今估值大约是400亿美元，上下浮动难免。

That stake, by the way, now worth about $40,000,000,000, give or take.

Marketplace的梅根·麦卡蒂·卡里诺带来这份投资进展报告。

Marketplace's Megan McCarty Carino has this investor update.

塔夫茨大学的历史学家克里斯·米勒说，英特尔的复苏背后有诸多因素。他撰写了《芯片战争：全球最关键科技的争夺战》一书。

A lot of factors have played into Intel's comeback, says Tufts historian Chris Miller, who wrote Chip War, the fight for the world's most critical technology.

公司经历了多年的重组和制造体系改革，政府支持确实起了作用，但最重要的是——

There's the years long overhaul of corporate and manufacturing structures, government support, yes, but most importantly

由于人工智能的兴起，英特尔生产的CPU芯片需求大幅增长。

The demand for the CPU chips that the company produces has surged because of AI.

这正是英特尔收入增长、股价表现强劲的主要原因。

That's the primary reason that Intel's revenues have increased and its, stock price has done very well.

曾经推动英特尔在个人电脑市场占据主导地位的中央处理器，早在人工智能热潮初期就被英伟达的显卡超越了。

The humble central processing unit that powered Intel's dominance in personal computing had been overshadowed by GPUs from NVIDIA early in the AI boom.

但过去一年里，随着人工智能工作流程的变化，企业越来越多地依赖智能代理，发现把CPU和GPU搭配使用效果更好。

But over the last year, as AI workflows have changed and as companies have relied more on agents, they found that pairing CPUs with GPUs provides better performance.

分析师安杰洛·齐诺在CFRA表示，有联邦政府作为投资者，英特尔正借此扩大产能，以满足这一需求。

Having the federal government as an investor is helping Intel build out its manufacturing capacity to meet that demand, says analyst Angelo Zino at CFRA.

这还带动了其他公司也纷纷加大投资。

It actually pushed others to also make investments.

对吧？

Right?

软银投资了20亿美元。

SoftBank invested 2,000,000,000.

英伟达又追加了50亿美元，用于扩大本土芯片产能。

NVIDIA, another 5,000,000,000 to help expand domestic chip production.

所以如果你是一家像英伟达这样的公司，想在美国政府面前留下好印象，那让英特尔分一杯羹再合理不过了。

So if you're a company like NVIDIA, if you wanna position yourself in a favorable light with the U.

美国

S.

政府，那让英特尔分一杯羹再合理不过了。

Government, it would make all the sense in the world to try to get Intel some of your business.

塞普特研究合伙公司的分析师杰伊·戈德堡也指出，特朗普政府曾暗中推动大型科技公司与英特尔合作。

Analyst Jay Goldberg at Seaport Research Partners also points to reports the Trump administration has worked behind the scenes to push big tech companies to partner with Intel.

特朗普政府鼓励大家仔细看看，结果客户发现确实不错，就开始下单了。

The Trump administration encouraged people to take a closer look, and customers found they like what they saw enough to go start buying stuff.

他说，短期内这笔交易对双方来说都挺见效的。

In the short term, he says, the deal seems to be paying off for both parties.

但我认为，关于这是否是好的政策，以及未来会怎样，还有很多疑问。

But I think there are still a lot of questions about whether or not this is good policy, what what this means in the future.

目前，政府的需求和市场需求基本一致，但这种情况未必能一直持续下去。

Right now, what the government wants aligns pretty well with what the market wants, but that might not be the case forever.

我是 Marketplace 的梅根·麦卡蒂·卡里诺。

I'm Megan McCarty Carino from Marketplace.

接下来。

Coming up.

她才28岁，却像50岁一样。

She's 28 going on 50.

各位，时间到了。

Time comes for everybody, gang.

不过在那之前，我们先来看一下数据。

But first, let's do the numbers.

道琼斯工业指数今天上涨了235点，约0.5%，收于51,947点。

Dow Industrial's up two thirty five today about a half percent, finished at 51,947.

纳斯达克指数下跌了161点，约三分之二个百分点，报24,975点。

The Nasdaq subtracted a 161 points, about two thirds percent, 24,975.

标普500指数基本持平，报7,411点。

S and P 500 basically flat seventy four and eleven.

过去五天里，道指下跌了百分之零点四。

For the five days gone by, the Dow gave up four tenths percent.

纳斯达克下跌了百分之二点一。

The Nasdaq down 2.1%.

标普500指数下跌了百分之零点六。

S and P five hundred subtracted six tenths of 1%.

尽管英特尔当季业绩出色，销售额大幅增长，但其股价当天仍下跌了百分之七点九。

Despite the great quarter and the big jump in sales at Intel, shares subtracted 7.9% on the day.

本周早些时候，AT&T发布的财报让华尔街眼前一亮。

Earlier this week, AT and T delighted Wall Street with a strong report.

今天轮到Verizon，新增的手机用户数几乎是市场预期的两倍。

Today, it was Verizon's turn, added close to twice as many phone subscribers as people had been guessing.

此外，当天股价也上涨了百分之五点八。

Also, dialed up about five and eight tenths percent on the day.

生产HOKA和UGG鞋履的这家公司，顺便说一句，很多人不知道它们是同一家企业，业绩超过了华尔街预期，并上调了今年的业绩预测。

The maker of HOKA and UGG footwear, who knew they were the same company, by the way, topped Wall Street predictions, raised its projections for this year.

Deckers Outdoor 股价下跌了百分之零点二。

Deckers Outdoor ran down two tenths of 1%.

您正在收听《市场》节目。

You're listening to Marketplace.

本节目由《明日疗法》赞助播出。

This Marketplace podcast is presented by Tomorrow's Cure.

如果您对推动医疗进步的创新感兴趣，那《明日疗法》正是为您准备的。

If our health care coverage leaves you wanting to learn more about the innovations shaping medicine, tomorrow's cure is for you.

这是梅奥诊所出品的2025年艾美奖提名冠军播客。

It's the chart topping twenty twenty five Ambi award finalist podcast from Mayo Clinic.

全新一季已回归，由获奖记者林赛·西弗特担任新主持人，深入探讨正在改变医疗格局的前沿突破。

Back for a brand new season with new host award winning journalist Lindsey Sievert, tomorrow's cure explores the innovations changing the healthcare landscape.

本季邀请多位顶尖医生、研究员和医学专家对话，内容涵盖人工智能诊断、前沿癌症疗法，以及正在提升患者护理水平的外科技术。

Featuring conversations with leading physicians, researchers, and medical experts, the new season examines everything from AI powered diagnostics and cutting edge cancer therapies to surgical technologies improving patient care today.

不知道从哪儿开始听？

Not sure where to start?

收听本季首期节目，嘉宾包括MD安德森癌症中心的放射物理学家佩吉·泰勒博士。

Listen to the season premiere featuring MD Anderson radiation physicist Doctor.

以及梅奥诊所的放射肿瘤学家亚当·霍尔茨曼博士。

Paige Taylor and Mayo Clinic radiation oncologist Doctor.

亚当·霍尔茨曼。

Adam Holtzman.

他们探讨了碳离子疗法为何在医学界引发关注，以及它对精准癌症治疗未来意味着什么。

They discuss why carbon ion therapy is generating excitement in the medical community and what it could mean for the future of precision cancer treatment.

那就开始吧。

So go ahead.

请在苹果播客、Spotify，或你常用的播客平台关注《明天的治愈》。

Follow Tomorrow's Cure on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.

几十年来，企业一直围绕成本和效率来构建采购与供应链。

For decades, companies built their procurement and supply chains around cost and efficiency.

但如今，光靠这些已经不够了。

Today, that's no longer enough.

战争、贸易摩擦以及贸易区域化，已经彻底改变了游戏规则。

Wars, trade conflicts, and the regionalization of trade have changed the rules.

企业仍然需要控制成本，但更要降低风险，快速应对各种突发状况和冲击。

Companies still need to control costs, but they also need to reduce risk and respond faster to disruptions and shocks.

GEP 正是帮助全球领先企业实现这一目标的解决方案。

GEP helps the world's leading enterprises do exactly that.

通过其原生人工智能的量子智能平台与服务，GEP 帮助企业全面掌握供应链动态，预测并管理风险，在全球价值链中做出更明智的资本决策。

Through its AI native quantum intelligence platform and services, GEP helps companies gain visibility, predict and manage risk, and make smarter capital investments across their global value chain.

GEP 拥有超过七千名员工，分布在三十个办事处，服务全球一千多家机构。

More than 7,000 employees across 30 offices support over 1,000 organizations worldwide.

GEP 将自主型人工智能与三十年的采购和供应链数据及专业经验相结合。

GEP combines agentic AI with three decades of procurement and supply chain data and expertise.

了解更多，请访问 gep.com。

Learn more at gep.com.

这是《市场》节目。

This is Marketplace.

我是凯·里斯达尔。

I'm Kai Risdall.

下次你去超市买菜，走到饮料区时，麻烦多停一会儿。

Next time you're grocery shopping and you find yourself in the soda aisle, do me a favor and linger for a minute.

仔细看看。

Take a closer look.

你看到的不只是那些老面孔，宣传方式也不再是老一套了。

It's not all the usual suspects that you'll see, and it's not all the usual messaging.

现在的汽水都标榜含益生菌、益生元、电解质，甚至还加上了适应原成分。

Sodas are now probiotic, prebiotic, electrolyte loaded, not to mention adaptogenic as well.

功能性饮料成了热门词，Z世代对它们特别追捧。

Functional beverages is the buzzword, and Gen Z is all over them.

我们联系了《福布斯》的莫妮卡·佩特鲁奇来聊聊这个话题。

We've called Monica Petrucci at Forbes to talk it over.

谢谢你能来。

Thanks for coming on.

非常感谢您邀请我来。

Thank you so much for having me.

我觉得我们得先明确几个术语。

We need, I think, to define some terms here.

这里提到的术语是‘功能性饮品’。

The term at hand is functional beverage.

那到底什么是功能性饮品呢？

What is that?

是的。

Yeah.

功能性饮品就是指任何能带来健康益处或额外营养价值的饮料。

So a functional beverage is essentially any beverage that offers some kind of health benefit or added nutritional value.

比如含益生菌或益生元、有助于消化的，或者含电解质、帮助补水的，范围其实非常广。

So that could be anything for pre or probiotics for digestive health or electrolytes for hydration, but it can span pretty far and wide.

根据你参加的那场大会来看，这些饮品现在特别火。

And they are, based on this, conference or convention I suppose you went to, they are all the rage.

是的。

Yes.

我认为，从2021年左右开始，这个品类一直稳步增长。

So they have been growing pretty steadily, I think since about 2021.

整个品类预计到2030年将接近三万四千亿美元的规模。

The category in general is projected to reach around almost 340,000,000,000 by 2030.

正如你所说，今年在那个高端食品展上，到处都是这类产品。

So, yeah, as you said, they were all over the floor at the fancy food show this year.

我能稍微说两句吗？就是那种‘你们这些年轻人，别在我家门口闹腾’的老派观点？

Could I just can we spare me a moment here for the for the hey, you kids get off my lawn part of this?

以前喝汽水，不就是因为它好喝，想歇会儿、放松一下吗？

Whatever happened to just like having a soda because it tastes good, you know, and you just want to hang out for a minute?

对。

Yeah.

我觉得人们对这种东西的兴趣，正慢慢在减弱。

I think that interest is kind of fading away a little bit.

我觉得普通消费者普遍

I think consumers in general

对这一点还挺包容的。

polite about that.

当然，传统汽水和果汁还是有市场的。

Well, there definitely still is a market for the traditional soda and juice.

对吧？

Right?

但另一方面，有个新兴市场在增长，就是大家越来越不看重所谓的空热量了。

But there is this other kind of side of the market that's growing, which is folks are less interested in quote, unquote empty calories.

对吧？

Right?

人们更倾向于选择那些能充分利用每一份营养的饮品和零食。

They're interested in beverages and also snack foods in general that make the most of everything that they're eating and drinking.

而且现在人们喝酒也比以前少了。

And and also people aren't drinking alcohol as much.

对吧？

Right?

这肯定是原因之一。

That's gotta be part of

是的。

Yeah.

没错。

Exactly.

年轻消费者，尤其是Z世代和千禧一代，喝酒越来越少。

So younger consumers, especially like Gen Z and millennials are drinking less alcohol.

他们更想要一些不含酒精、但又能带来某种好处的饮品，比如补水或者助消化之类的。

They're looking for more, you know, fun drinks that aren't alcohol, but maybe offer some kind of benefit, hydration or better digestion, things like that.

我读到这篇文章时很惊讶，我好久没去星巴克了，但他们现在推出了一种叫蛋白冷泡的东西。

I was amazed to read in this piece, and I haven't been in Starbucks in a good long while, but they have something called a protein cold foam.

对。

Yes.

是的

Yep.

什么？

What?

没错

Exactly.

所以这种产品不再只是小众选择，不再只在直售渠道或小型健康商店里能找到，现在几乎到处都是了。

So it's it's becoming less of a niche, kind of product that you'll find at either direct to consumer or in small health focused stores, and it's kind of becoming everywhere.

就像你说的，你家附近的星巴克，还有沃尔玛这样的地方，都专门设了功能性饮品的专区。

Like you said, your local Starbucks, places like Walmart have dedicated areas for functional beverages.

现在真的到处都能看到了。

It's just kind of everywhere now.

不过它们真的有效吗？

Do they work though?

当然有效。

Yeah.

这正是关键问题。

That's the question.

对吧？

Right?

所以这中间其实有个范围。

So there are there's kind of a range.

你得一个个来看每种饮品。

So you kind of have to take each different beverage into account.

比如益生菌饮料，像Olipop或者Poppy。

You know, there are gut health drinks like Olipop or Poppy.

它们都添加了膳食纤维。

Those have added fiber to them.

还有电解质粉剂、代酒精饮品，有些里面加了适应原草本或真菌，比如南非醉茄或灵芝。

And then there are electrolyte pouches, there are drinks that are alcohol alternatives, things that have adaptogen of herbs or mushrooms in there like ashwagandha or reishi.

这些都

Those are