填补联邦数据空白

今天是政府停摆的第七天，这意味着我们已确确实实进入了第二个没有关键联邦数据的工作周。这里是美国公共媒体旗下的Marketplace节目。在纽约，我是克里斯汀·施瓦布，暂代凯·里兹达尔。今天是10月7日星期二，很高兴有您相伴收听。

It's day seven of the government shutdown, which means we are solidly standing in a second business week without crucial federal data. From American Public Media, this is Marketplace. In New York, I'm Kristen Schwab in for Kai Rizdahl. It's Tuesday, October 7. Good to have you along.

经济学家和经济新闻记者需要数据。数字能让我们了解经济过去的状态、当前的状况以及未来的走向。但幸运的是，数据有多种形式。今天我们获得了一些来自私营部门的数据。投资公司凯雷发布了一份关于9月份就业情况的报告。

Economists and economic journalists need data. Numbers give us a sense of where the economy has been, where the economy is now, and where the economy is heading. But data, thankfully, come in many forms. Today, we got some from the private sector. The investment firm Carlyle released a report about employment in September.

该公司估计上个月仅新增了17,000个工作岗位，从宏观角度看这个数字相当微不足道。凯雷只是目前向公众提供此类数据的众多公司之一。而天下没有免费的午餐，私营公司为何要主动公开这些数据？Marketplace的丹尼尔·阿克曼对此进行了调查。

The company estimates that just 17,000 jobs were created last month, which in the grand scheme of things is pretty paltry. Carlyle is just one of many companies now providing this kind of data to the public. And because nothing is ever really free, why would a private firm just offer this up? Marketplaces' Daniel Ackerman looked into it.

今天凯雷的报告基本上与我们从其他数据来源听到的情况一致。

Today's Carlyle report tells basically the same story we've been hearing from other data sources.

都描绘出美国劳动力市场增长极其缓慢或停滞的连贯图景。

A pretty consistent picture of really slow or stalled growth in The US labor market.

塞莱斯特·卡拉瑟斯是田纳西大学的劳动经济学家，她表示企业会通过不同方式收集经济数据。

Celeste Caruthers is a labor economist at the University of Tennessee, and she says companies collect economic data in different ways.

凯雷通过其投资组合获取数据，ADP则通过薪资系统收集信息。

Carlyle from their investment holdings, ADP from payrolls.

由于这些公司在收集信息方面受到限制，经济政策研究所的Elise Gould认为，与联邦数据相比，对这些报告应持保留态度。

And because these firms are limited in how they're able to collect information, Elise Gould with the Economic Policy Institute takes these reports with a small grain of salt compared to the federal data.

并非它们不可信，而是它们无法月复一月、年复一年地提供同样全面的图景。

It's not that they're less trustworthy. It's that they don't provide the same kind of comprehensive picture month after month, year after year.

Gould表示，政府的数据更为丰富。

Gould says the government data is just richer.

我们能获取非常准确的人口统计信息，包括种族、性别、教育水平以及居住地等所有细节。

We get very accurate information about demographics. So everything from race and gender to education level to where they live.

此外，政府对其信息收集方式非常透明。Employ America的Preston Mui指出，并非所有私营企业都如此公开。例如凯雷的报告。

Plus, the government is clear about how they collect all that information. Preston Mui of Employ America says not all private sector firms are so forthcoming. For instance, the Carlyle report.

很难确切判断其可信度，因为数据构建的具体细节并不明确。他们仅表示这是基于其专有数据集。

It's It's hard to say exactly how seriously to take it because the details of exactly how they constructed the data were not really apparent. They just said that it was based on their proprietary dataset.

凯雷未回应采访请求。Mui提到，即使在政府正常运作时，私营公司也能提供一些政府无法获取的数据集。

Carlyle didn't respond to an interview request. Muy says that private companies can provide some datasets that the government simply can't even when it is up and running.

我特别喜欢的是Indeed的工资追踪器，它能监测招聘信息中的工资增长情况。

One that I really like is the Indeed wage tracker, which looks at wage growth in job postings.

至于私营企业为何会免费公开这些数据？

As for why private firms would just publish this data for free?

我们将其视为公共服务。

We do it as a public service.

John Challenger是Challenger Gray and Christmas公司的CEO。这是一家职业过渡服务公司，他们帮助企业处理裁员事宜，因此已经收集了这些数据。

John Challenger is CEO of Challenger Gray and Christmas. That's an outplacement firm. They help companies deal with layoffs, so they already collect that data.

这正是我们作为企业的核心业务。我们按行业和地区追踪趋势，因此努力在每月初发布可靠的信息。

It's just the focus of what we do as a business. We look for trends by industry and region, so we work hard at trying to create solid information that comes out at the beginning of each month.

此外，北卡罗来纳大学经济学家Gerald Cohen表示，这类公共服务对业务也有益处。

Plus, it doesn't hurt that this kind of public service can also be good for business, says Gerald Cohen, an economist at the University of North Carolina.

我认为这有点营销成分。

I think it's a bit of marketing.

但科恩表示，在政府数据暂停发布期间，这已是我们能获得的最佳信息。我是Marketplace的丹尼尔·阿克曼。

But Cohen says with government data on hiatus, it's the best we've got. I'm Daniel Ackerman for Marketplace.

今日华尔街，是因为政府停摆？还是金价上涨？无论原因何在，交易员们显然对所见景象感到不安。具体数据将在稍后播报中详细分析。我们已多次报道过僵持不下的房地产市场。

Wall Street today, was it the shutdown? Was it rising gold prices? Whatever it was, traders did not like what they saw. We'll have the details when we do the numbers. We've done plenty of stories on the sticky housing market.

报道涉及高房价和高抵押贷款利率——尽管近两个月利率略有回落。房地美数据显示，30年期固定利率平均值现为6.34%，虽低于全年均值，但对购房者仍属高位。因此许多买家直接放弃贷款。据realtor.com今日报告，今年上半年成交房屋中近三分之一被全现金支付的买家购得。

Stories about high prices and high mortgage rates, though rates have come down a bit in the last couple months. The average thirty year fixed is 6.34% according to Freddie Mac. That's below the one year average, but still plenty high for home buyers. So many of them are skipping mortgages altogether. Almost a third of all homes sold in the first six months of the year went to buyers who made all cash offers according to a report out today from realtor.com.

Marketplace记者卡拉·哈维尔将深入调查这些买家的身份及其对房地产市场的影响。

Marketplaces' Carla Javier looks into who these buyers are and how they're impacting the housing market.

全美房地产经纪人协会的汉娜·琼斯表示，现金购房在疫情时期竞争激烈的房市尚属合理，但如今呢？

Cash offers made sense back in the competitive pandemic housing market, says Hannah Jones at the National Association of Realtors. But now?

要知道，我们现在处于竞争稍缓的房地产市场。有趣的是现金交易比例仍居高不下，这某种程度上也标志着投资活动活跃度，同时反映出当前房市中积累的财富规模。

You know, we're in this slightly less competitive housing market. And so it's interesting to see that, you know, cash share is still relatively high because it it is also it's this flag of, you know, investor activity to some degree, and it's also a flag of, you know, how much wealth is in the housing market right now.

琼斯指出，对于低价房产，现金买家多为投资者，他们要么出租房产，要么试图转手获利。

When it comes to cheaper homes, Jones says the cash buyers tend to be investors who either rent the place out or try to flip it for profit.

也可能是那些无法获得抵押贷款批准的买家，因此他们寻求全款购房。

It also could be, buyers who maybe can't, get approved for a mortgage, and so they're looking to buy in all cash.

但琼斯指出，还有另一类全款买家在竞购更高价的房产。他们通常更富有、年长，并且曾拥有过住房。

But Jones says there's another group of all cash buyers making bids on more expensive homes. They tend to be wealthier, older, and they've owned homes before.

有些家庭确实处于这样的境况：只要出售现有房产，就能全款购置下一套住宅。

There are households that are definitely in a situation where if they sell their home, they can buy their next home in all cash.

如果他们持有房产足够久，增值部分可能覆盖新房成本，尤其是选择缩小面积或搬至更实惠地区时。全款支付能增加报价对卖家的吸引力，同时降低买家支出。加州大学圣地亚哥分校的迈克尔·雷赫尔在疫情前夕亲历了抵押贷款报价败给全款交易的案例后，与同事量化研究了现金支付对普通买家的影响差异。

And if they've been in their house long enough, gains in value might offset the cost of a new house, especially if they downsize or move somewhere more affordable. Paying in cash makes an offer more attractive to sellers. It also costs less for buyers. Michael Reher at the University of California San Diego found that out after he made a bid on a house backed by a mortgage right before the pandemic and lost out to an all cash offer. So he and a fellow researcher looked at how much a difference cash made for the average buyer.

若将支付方式从贷款转为全款，他们能以低于原价10%的价格购得同一房产。

If they were to switch from mortgage to cash, they could buy the same home for 10% less.

但需注意：该研究完成于新冠疫情前。Redfin首席经济学家达里尔·费尔韦瑟指出，此后全款交易的盛行反映出当前市场准入门槛之高。

One caveat though, that research was done before COVID. In the time since, Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather notes that the prevalence of cash offers reflects a market that's tough to break into.

对于没有现金储备、仅能承担小额首付的首次购房者而言，在当前高利率环境下确实举步维艰。

People who are first time homebuyers who don't have cash, who can only afford small down payments, it's, it's been quite hard for them in this high interest rate environment.

因为现金减少意味着卖家面临融资可能失败、交易可能破裂的更大风险。我是Marketplace的卡拉·哈维尔。

Because less cash means more risk for sellers that financing may fall through, and the deal may fall apart. I'm Carla Javier from Marketplace.

我们可以通过就业和房地产市场数据来了解经济状况，但有时仔细观察那些极其具体、甚至可以说是小众的数据，或许能揭示那些宏观数据无法展现的细节。二手商品销售能解释特定行业及企业与消费者的动态，比如二手车、二手服装，以及Marketplace记者马特·莱文报道的建筑设备。

We can look at jobs and housing market data to tell us a lot about the economy, But sometimes squinting at super specific, dare I say niche data, may tell us something else that the big broad stuff can't. Sales of secondhand goods can explain what's happening in certain industries and with businesses and consumers. There's used cars, thrifted clothing, and as marketplaces Matt Levin reports, construction equipment.

这是萨克拉门托东南部Bar None拍卖场的预展日。这个18英亩的泥地场地像是个井然有序的废品场与二手车行的混合体。次日将有2000多件物品进行线上拍卖，从破旧的救护车到便携式桑拿房应有尽有。

It's a preview day at Bar None Auction Yard in Southeast Sacramento. The 18 acre dirt lot feels like a blend of well organized junkyard and used car dealership. With 2,000 plus items set for online auction the next day from beat up ambulances to portable saunas.

部分物品会来自政府机构。

Some stuff will come from government agencies.

杰夫·胡伯是Bar Nun的市场部负责人。

Jeff Huber is Bar Nun's marketing head.

另一部分则来自个人、企业或公司自身，他们想处理掉旧设备，可能是为了给新设备腾空间，或者只是需要回笼资金。

The other piece is just individuals, corporations, businesses themselves, older equipment that they're looking to offload, maybe to make room for new stuff, or maybe they just need to free up some cash.

胡伯正带我参观拍卖会的重头戏——被Bar Nunn员工称为'主街'的场地区域。

Huber is giving me a tour of the auction's biggest attractions, a stretch of the yard the Bar Nunn employees call Main Street.

大家可以看到正前方有一台漂亮的大型轮式装载机。再往后是一台平地机。接着还有一台大型挖掘机。此外还有些迷你挖掘机。

And you'll see right in front of us, have a nice big wheel loader. Beyond that, we have a motor grader. Then we have a nice big excavator. Then we got some mini Xs.

一排排重型施工设备林立，随处可见卡特彼勒和约翰迪尔的标志。胡伯带我走到一台滑移装载机前——这种全地形山猫式设备——他不太确定能否启动它。

Rows upon rows of heavy construction equipment, lots of Caterpillar and John Deere logos. Huber walks me to a skid steer, kind of an all terrain bobcat type thing, and he's not sure it's gonna start up.

有些设备可能会没电。

Now some things will be dead.

我们运气不错。

We're in luck.

所以如果你过来

So like if you were to come out

然后你准备转动钥匙

and you were to you were to turn the key

却毫无反应的话，我们会帮你尝试给车辆和设备搭电。

and nothing happens, we will try to jump the vehicles and the equipment for you.

Bar nine并不保证设备已完全可用，这就是为什么约翰·范·塔塞尔正在仔细检查他考虑竞标的半挂卡车拖车。

Bar nine doesn't certify that the equipment is actually ready to use, which is why John Van Tassel is doing a very close inspection of the semi truck trailer he's thinking of bidding on.

然后你就稍微，嗯，四处走走看看。钻到车底检查刹车和轮胎，因为轮胎可不便宜。

And then you just kinda yeah. Just do a little walk around. You get under, check your brakes, check your tires, because tires are expensive.

尽管拖车甲板的木质部分有明显裂缝，线上竞拍却早已热闹非凡。确实如此。

Even with a pretty big crack on the wood section of the deck, there's been plenty of early bidding online. Yeah.

现在这辆拖车，我刚看到报价是10,500美元，我可能会出到15,000美元。

So this trailer right now, I think I just looked at it at 10,500 and I'd probably go up to 15,000 on it.

全新的大型拖车价格可能高达3万美元。范·塔塞尔从事建筑业，是北加州一家桥梁建设公司的卡车司机兼设备操作员。但他此行其实是为了副业——自己的货运生意。

New big rig trailers can run you $30. Van Tassel works in construction. He's a truck driver and equipment operator for a Northern California bridge building company. But he's actually here for his side hustle, his own trucking concern.

我在发展自己的事业。经营货运经纪业务，既做货物中介也亲自运输，想用自己的设备争取些固定客户。这里面有很多...

Getting my own thing going. I have a freight brokerage, and so I do freight brokering and then hauling trying to pick up some of my own accounts with my own equipment. There's a lot

如今二手设备市场的买家都在自立门户。Bar none的区域经理布拉德·法尼尼表示，这反映了建筑业现状：虽非萧条，但比前两年确实放缓了。

of getting my own thing going buyers in the used equipment market these days. Bar none territory manager Brad Fanini says that tells you something about how the construction industry is faring. Not slow per se, but slower than a couple years ago.

于是你买台小型挖掘机，周末加班干活养家。这就是现实。所以副业就这么开始了。这些人手头有空闲时间。

So you buy a little excavator and go work Saturday and Sunday to try and feed your family. I mean, that's what you do. So it's where the side hustle kinda kicks in. It's these guys are they've got free time on their hands.

住宅建设尤其滞后。房屋竣工量比去年下降约7%。关税也是因素之一，但芬尼尼表示，卡特彼勒经销商的价格上涨对线上拍卖商未必是好消息。

Residential construction is especially lagging. Housing completions are down about 7% from last year. Tariffs are also part of the equation, but Fennini says a run up in sticker price at the Caterpillar dealership isn't necessarily good news for online auctioneers.

这有点像双刃剑。懂我意思吗？我们希望客户去买新设备，这样我们才能从转售旧设备中获利。

It's kind of a double edged sword. You know what I mean? You know, we want customers going in there buying new equipment, and that way we can take the advantage of of selling their old equipment.

我确实查看了线上拍卖。说实话，还没eBay热闹。但总共拍出了约800万美元的货品，包括肯·迪尔贝克次周从场地提走的5x10自卸拖车。

I did check out the actual online option. Honestly, it's not much more exciting than eBay. But in total, about $8,000,000 worth of stuff was sold off. That includes the five by 10 dump trailer Ken Dilbeck picked up from the yard the following week.

我出价4600，加上税和注册费总共5600。划算吗？很划算了。

I bid 4,600 and after taxes and everything, registration, it came to 5,600. Is that a good deal? That's a good deal.

这辆自卸拖车其实是全新品。有时拍卖行会处理到手的新货。但迪尔贝克靠二手市场重启了装修公司，他说拍卖场是小承包商的生命线。

The dump trailer is actually brand new. Sometimes bar none auctions new items they get their hands on. But Dilbeck has relied on the used market to relaunch his remodeling company. He says auction yards are a lifeline for smaller contractors.

我正在重新创业，买了价值5万块的设备，按原价得花20万，根本负担不起。

I'm trying to start my company up again and everything, and I bought $50,000 worth of stuff, and that would have cost me 200,000, and you can't afford that.

迪尔贝克表示，在这里取走他的自卸拖车后，他实际上正前往另一个拍卖场，装载他花费1500美元购买的其他物品。我是Marketplace的马特·莱文。

After picking up his dump trailer here, Dilbeck says he's actually headed to another auction yard to load it with $1,500 worth of other stuff he bought. I'm Matt Levin for Marketplace.

接下来

Coming up

现在有了AI，只需十到十五秒。

Now with AI, it takes, ten to fifteen seconds.

我真希望那句话不是在说撰写和主持一档商业新闻节目。但首先，让我们看看数字。道琼斯工业平均指数下跌91点，跌幅0.2%，收于46,602点。纳斯达克指数下跌153点，跌幅0.67%，收于22,007.88美元，标普500指数下跌25点，跌幅0.4%，收于67.14美元。黄金价格飙升至每盎司4,003美元的新纪录收盘价。

I really hope that quote isn't about writing and hosting a business news show. But first, let's do the numbers. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 91 points, two tenths percent to finish at forty six thousand six zero two. The Nasdaq lost a 153 points, two thirds percent to close at $22,007.88, and the S and P five hundred shed 25 points, four tenths percent to end at $67.14. Gold rushed to a new record closing at $4,003 per ounce.

这一价格反映了投资者对美元疲软和美国经济不确定性的焦虑。丹·阿克曼报道称，由于政府未发布经济数据，凯雷集团正在自行发布。凯雷集团股价飙升1.75%。债券上涨。十年期国债收益率降至4.13%。

The price reflects investor anxiety about the weak dollar and uncertainty about The US economy. Dan Ackerman reported that Carlyle is now releasing economic data since the government hasn't been. Carlyle Group surged one and three quarters percent. Bonds rose. The yield on the ten year keynote fell to 4.13%.

您正在收听的是Marketplace。这里是Marketplace，我是克里斯汀·施瓦布。今天我们收到了纽约联邦储备银行发布的九月份消费者预期调查。调查显示，消费者对经济并不乐观。

You are listening to Marketplace. This is Marketplace. I'm Kristen Schwab. We got September's survey of consumer expectations today from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. It says consumers are not feeling so great about the economy.

他们预期通胀和失业率都将上升。当然，消费者并非一个统一的群体。他们对经济的感受受到个人因素的影响。这正是我在《生活经济》系列中试图捕捉的内容。我跟踪了一群生活迥异的人，从刚进入就业市场的年轻人到刚刚离开职场的退休人员。

They're expecting inflation to go up and unemployment to go up too. Of course, consumers are not a one size fits all group. They have personal reasons that inform how they feel about the economy. It's something I've been trying to capture in my series, Lived Economies. I'm following a group of people living very different lives from young adults just entering the job market to retirees who've just left it.

卡里姆·阿达西是一名药剂师。他与妻子汉农住在加利福尼亚州的埃尔克格罗夫。今年早些时候我去拜访这对夫妇时，他们有一个女儿。现在他们有两个了。卡里姆，感谢你的到来。

Karim Adasi is a pharmacist. He lives in Elk Grove, California with his wife, Hannon. When I visited the couple earlier this year, they had one daughter. Now they have two. Kareem, thanks for being here.

谢谢。谢谢。谢谢。很高兴能回来。

Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. It's good to be back.

恭喜你们迎来新宝宝。她叫什么名字来着？

Well, congrats on the new baby. What's her name again?

夏天。

Summer.

夏天。她现在多大了？

Summer. And how old is she at this point?

她是5月16日出生的。所以马上就要五个月大了。

She she was born May 16. So she is about to be five months.

太好了。你和汉农最近怎么样？

Great. And how's it going for for you and Hennan?

挺好的。从养育一个孩子过渡到两个孩子，比我们预想的要困难得多，不过我们正在努力适应。

Good. Good. You know, the transition from one to two kids is a lot more significant than we thought it would be, but, you know, we're managing.

你和汉侬能抽出些时间休息吗？

Were you and Hannon able to take some time off?

是的。汉侬还在休产假，她下周就要回去工作了。我也休了些陪产假，生日那天——7月14日——我复工了。

Yeah. So Hannon is still on maternity leave. She starts back to work next week, and I was able to take some paternity leave on I started back at work on my birthday, so July 14.

既然你们俩都快重返职场了，那 childcare 方面怎么安排？费用大概多少？

Well, with both of you returning to work soon, what does what does childcare look like for you in that cost?

我们很幸运找到了一位住在附近的温柔女士。至于两个孩子的费用...说实话我们还在计算，但肯定在每月2000到3000美元之间。

Yeah. So we're fortunate enough to have found, this really sweet woman that actually lives in our neighborhood. And for both kids, I don't know. I mean, we're still trying to kinda figure out with both kids how much it's gonna cost. But, I mean, it's gonna be in the 2 to $3,000 a month range for sure.

嗯。

Mhmm.

嗯。那新增孩子的其他开销呢？你们的支出和预算有变化吗？

Mhmm. What about the other costs of adding another kid? Has your have your expenses changed? Has your budget changed?

说实话，我并没有特别注意到什么。只是有个周末我去好市多采购时，发现什么都缺货了。塔利亚的尿布，夏天的尿布，所有东西都莫名其妙地断货了。要知道我们通常不会等到最后一刻才去买。

Not anything that I've noticed per se. There was a weekend where I went to Costco and we were like out of everything. Diapers for Talia, diapers for Summer. Like, we were just out of everything for whatever reason. I can't I don't you know, we usually don't wait till last minute.

那是我第一次在好市多花了大约3400美元。那一刻真的让我意识到，是的，我现在是个父亲了。

And it was the first time where I spent, like, $3,400 at Costco. And I it just, like, really hit me that, yeah, I'm I'm a I'm a dad now. Like

那就是那个决定性时刻。

That was the moment.

就是那一刻。就是那个瞬间。

That was the moment. That was the moment.

好市多就会给你这样的体验。不过说起来，我听说你们收到了一份相当惊人的医院账单？

Costco will do that to you. Uh-huh. I hear actually though that you all got a pretty surprising hospital bill.

对，对。这件事真的让我很恼火，因为据我理解，分娩时间刚好卡在新保险年度开始后。结果我们还没达到免赔额，所有费用都要自付。最后我们收到了大约8000美元的医院账单。

Yeah. Yeah. It it it really it really annoyed me because from what my understanding is it got to the point where the delivery was right after the, like, new insurance year. And so none of you know, we didn't have any of the deductibles paid and all of that. And so, yeah, we ended up be ended up having it was around a $8,000 hospital bill.

哇，这太夸张了。

Oh, wow.

是啊是啊。我想我花了陪产假的大部分时间——如果不是全部的话——都在和医院以及健康顾问沟通。我甚至尝试通过医院申请经济援助，但他们说我们的收入太高了。所以这又回到了我们之前讨论的普遍问题：我们的收入让这些援助计划都遥不可及，却又不足以让我们不为钱发愁。

Yeah. Yeah. And I tried I think I think I spent majority, if not the whole paternity leave talking to the hospital and talking to, like, a health advocate. I even tried to apply for, like, financial assistance through the hospital, but they said our income was too high. And so it kinda went back to the general concept that we talked about earlier was we make too much money for any of these, like, assistance programs, but we don't make enough for to not be stressed about money.

你知道，在支付了新生儿账单又重返工作岗位后，生活完全不同了。你对当前经济状况感觉如何？自从我们上次交谈后有变化吗？

You know, after that bill with a new child going back to work, Life is very different. How are you feeling about the economy right now? Has it changed since I last talked to you?

这是个好问题。我不确定是否有变化，但可以说我更接受现实了。就我个人而言，作为卡里姆·阿达西，我对经济无能为力。即便我认为现在物价高得离谱，生活成本难以承受，这依然改变不了我需要养家糊口、满足他们需求的事实，你明白我的意思吧。嗯。

That's a great question. I don't know if it's changed, but I would say I'm a little more accepting of the reality. At this point, there's nothing that me individually as Kareem Adasi can do anything about the economy. And, you know, just because I think the economy is really expensive right now and things are so unaffordable, doesn't change the fact that I still need to provide for my family and get them what they need and all of that, if that makes sense. Mhmm.

是的。卡里姆·阿达西住在加利福尼亚州的埃尔克格罗夫，他是我们系列报道《生活经济》中跟访的人物之一。非常感谢你，卡里姆。

Yeah. Kareem Adasi is in Elk Grove, California, and he's one of the people we're following in our series, Lived Economies. Thanks so much, Kareem.

谢谢，克里斯塔。

Thanks, Krista.

似乎每天都有关于人工智能投资和进展的新公告，这意味着无论我们是否喜欢，AI已经到来。越来越多的企业和社区正在接受这一趋势，包括部落民族。他们利用AI增强政府运作、发展企业并保护语言。但AI也给印第安地区带来了独特风险。市场部的萨凡纳·彼得斯参加了凤凰城的一场峰会，部落领袖们在那里探讨了AI的风险与回报。

It seems like there's a new announcement about investments and advancements in artificial intelligence every day, which is to say AI is here whether we like it or not. More businesses and communities are embracing that outlook, including tribal nations. They're using AI to augment government operations, grow their enterprises, and preserve their languages. But AI also poses unique risks in Indian country. Marketplaces Savannah Peters went to a summit in Phoenix where tribal leaders discussed AI's risks and rewards.

莫龙戈印第安部落采用独特的方式自治。以下是该部落首席行政官杰森·卡里索萨的描述方式。

The Morongo Band of Mission Indians governs itself in a unique way. Here's how the tribe's chief administrative officer, Jason Carrizosa, describes it.

我们就像一个超级民主政体。我们没有宪法或类似的东西。

We're like a super democracy. We don't have a constitution or anything like that.

相反，莫龙戈法律是由数百项公民批准的条例、决议和公投提案拼凑而成的。

Instead, Morongo law is a patchwork of hundreds of citizen approved ordinances and resolutions and ballot referenda.

所以如果我需要询问一个治理问题，部落议会是否有权以这种方式行事？

So if I need to ask about a governance issue, does the tribal council have the authority to act in this manner?

过去要得到答案需要一番挖掘，还可能会耽误议会会议。

Getting an answer used to take some digging and could hold up a council meeting.

现在有了人工智能，只需要十到十五秒。

Now with AI, it takes, ten to fifteen seconds.

卡里索萨自己构建了一个由人工智能驱动的法律数据库。这是一个专有工具，帮助他的部落政府更高效地运作，并做出尊重其历史的决策。

Carrizosa built an AI driven legal repository himself. It's a proprietary tool that helps his tribe's government run more efficiently and make decisions that honor its past.

我会问，给我讲讲第21号条例的来龙去脉以及它对职业行为意味着什么。对吧？然后它就会完美地给出答案，分毫不差。

I'll ask, tell me a little narrative on ordinance 21 and what it means for professional conduct. Right? And then it'll fire it out perfect, like, to the t.

卡里索萨表示，人工智能可能在难以招募人员的政府部门成为力量倍增器，并帮助莫龙戈的企业增加收入以资助社区服务。但他也清楚其中存在风险。

Carrizosa says AI could be a force multiplier in hard to staff government departments and help Morongo's enterprises bring in more revenue to fund community services. But he also knows there are risks.

部落首先会考虑的是，我们的数据在哪里？我们如何评估这方面的风险？

That's the first thing tribes are gonna look at, like, where is our data? How do we factor in risk for that?

部落国家与其他政府一样持有公民的敏感数据，但他们还需要考虑族谱记录中的成员身份、语言材料，以及严密守护的传统和文化知识。

Tribal nations hold sensitive data about their citizens just like any other government, but they also have enrollment in genealogical records to think about. Language materials, fiercely guarded traditional and cultural knowledge.

我们显然是一个几个世纪以来在数据和文化遗产方面饱受剥削的群体。

We're obviously a community that has been exploited for our data and for our culture for centuries.

特雷西·莫里斯是亚利桑那州立大学部落数字主权中心的主任。峰会开始时，她请听众扫描二维码参与一项调查。

Tracy Morris directs the Center for Tribal Digital Sovereignty at Arizona State University. At the start of the summit, she asked the audience to scan a QR code for a poll.

大家需要拿出手机，我们就这样操作。

You need to get your phones out. This is how we do this.

她想知道这些部落领导人和工作人员中有多少人在日常工作中使用某种形式的人工智能。

She wanted to know how many of these tribal leaders workers are using some form of AI in their daily work.

这这很能说明问题。你们大多数人。

That's that's pretty telling. Most of you.

然后莫里斯问大家在使用哪些类型的AI工具。是封闭的专有模型还是像ChatGPT这样的开源机器人。大约三分之二的人仅使用开放数据源，这相当令人担忧。因为这意味着主权国家可能会失去对他们努力保护的信息的控制。但对印第安地区来说还有另一个熟悉的风险。

Then Morris asked what kinds of AI tools everyone was using. Locked down proprietary models or open source bots like ChatGPT. Like, two thirds were just using open data sources, which was rather frightening. Because it means sovereign nations could lose control of information they've worked hard to protect. But there's another familiar risk for Indian country.

我们作为一个民族不应被落下，这是我们必须跟上步伐的努力之一。

We as a people were not meant to be left behind, and this is one of those efforts in which we know we have to keep pace.

保拉·斯塔尔是切罗基族的首席信息官，这是首批采用全保留地人工智能政策的部落之一，鼓励使用安全的闭源模型。我认为

Paula Starr is the chief information officer for the Cherokee Nation, one of the first tribes to adopt a reservation wide artificial intelligence policy, encouraging use of a secure, closed source model. I think

最令人惊讶的应用案例是

the most surprising use case for

我们

us

绝对是利用AI建模3D打印乌龟壳。

definitely was our three d printing of turtle shells using AI to build a model.

切罗基沉浸式学校的学生们正用这些贝壳制作跺脚舞时佩戴的摇铃。斯塔尔表示，这符合切罗基公民的反馈意见，这些意见帮助塑造了该部落的人工智能政策。

Students at a Cherokee immersion school are using those shells to make shakers worn during stomp dance. Star says that's in line with feedback from Cherokee citizens that helped shape the nation's AI policy.

只要我们能保持文化根基，他们支持我们作为政府去探索这项技术。

They are good with us exploring it as a government as long as we keep it culturally grounded.

但保持文化根基也可能意味着需要保持谨慎。

But staying culturally grounded can also mean hanging back.

噢，我们非常规避风险。这很有趣，就像基因里的倾向性，我们对变革有多抗拒。

Oh, we're very risk averse. It's funny. It's like a genetic disposition, how resistant we are to change.

杰森·卡里佐萨正在制定一项政策，以鼓励并规范莫龙戈部落对人工智能的使用。他表示，其中一个挑战可能是让社区接受这一政策。萨凡纳·彼得斯在凤凰城为您报道《市场观察》。

Jason Carrizosa is working on a policy to encourage and put guardrails around AI use at Morongo. He says one challenge could be getting the community to buy in. In Phoenix, I'm Savannah Peters for Marketplace.

今天节目结束前，我在彭博社看到这条消息：在我们等待下周公布的9月消费者价格指数之际（当然前提是政府不会长期停摆），这里有些食品杂货新闻。鸡肉市场价格自夏季峰值以来已下跌18%，原因很简单——供应终于赶上了需求。

This final note on the way out today, saw this in Bloomberg. Here's some grocery news as we wait for September's consumer price index to come out next week, barring a prolonged government shutdown, of course. The market price for chicken has fallen 18% since its summer season peak. The math is pretty simple here. Supply is finally catching up with demand.

当牛肉价格飙升时，消费者转向鸡肉。随后鸡肉供不应求导致价格也急剧上涨。如今价格回落对饱受食品账单上涨困扰的消费者是好消息，但对指望鸡肉价格弥补牛肉业务损失的肉类生产商则不然。数字团队由乔丹·曼吉、佐尼尔·马哈拉杰、珍妮特·温、奥尔加·奥克斯曼、弗吉尼亚·K·史密斯和托尼·瓦格纳组成，我是克里斯汀·施瓦布。

When beef prices skyrocketed, consumers ran to chicken. Then there wasn't enough chicken to keep up, so chicken prices spiked too. The cost coming down is good news for consumers who've been facing rising grocery bills. Not so good news for meat producers who've been counting on chicken prices to make up for their loss of business in beef. Jordan Manji, Zoneel Maharaj, Janet Wynn, Olga Oxman, Virginia K Smith, and Tony Wagner are the digital team, And I'm Kristen Schwab.

我们明天会回到这里。现在是晚上8点。

We'll be back here tomorrow. This is 8PM.

我是金伯利·亚当斯，《让我变聪明》的主持人，这是Marketplace出品的一档让当下变得有意义的播客。每周我都会深入探讨科技、文化和经济领域的重要故事。无论是就业市场的氛围评估，还是中美关系的最新动态，《让我变聪明》都能帮助你理解这些头条新闻如何实际影响你的日常生活。在你喜欢的播客应用上收听《让我变聪明》吧。

I'm Kimberly Adams, host of Make Me Smart, a podcast from Marketplace that makes today make sense. Join me throughout the week as I dig into the biggest stories in tech, culture, and the economy. Whether it's a vibe check on the job market or the latest on China US relations, Make Me Smart helps you understand how the headlines actually impact your daily life. Listen to Make Me Smart on your favorite podcast app.