市场对美国抓获马杜罗一事反应平淡

那么，你认为过去七十二小时的经济状况如何？

And what do you suppose the economy makes of the past seventy two hours?

来自美国公共媒体，这里是《市场》节目。

From American public media, this is Marketplace.

在洛杉矶，我是凯·里兹达尔。

In Los Angeles, I'm Kai Rizdal.

今天是星期一。

It is Monday today.

这一期是1月5日。

This one is the January 5.

感谢大家一如既往的陪伴。

Good as always have you along, everybody.

如果你不知道周末发生了什么，刷一刷你常看的商业网站，或者瞥一眼股票行情，都完全不会给你任何线索，这在一方面，真的吗？

If you didn't know what had happened over the weekend, a scroll through your favorite business sites or a glance at a stock ticker would not in any way, shape, or form have given you a clue, which on the one hand, really?

但另一方面，我能理解。

But on the other hand, I get it.

那里仍然有很多未知的未知因素。

There's still a lot of unknown unknowns out there.

市场观察员萨布丽娜·本肖尔为我们梳理了当前市场的氛围。

Marketplaces Sabrina Benshore sorts us out with the market vibe right now.

你可能以为市场会有所反应。

You might have thought markets would do something.

你知道，我们正在讨论美国入侵另一个主权国家并俘获其领导人。

You know, we are talking about The US invading another sovereign state and seizing its leader.

这是一次重大的地缘政治事件。

This is these these are a significant geopolitical event.

布拉德利·桑德斯是资本经济公司北美地区的经济学家。

Bradley Saunders is a North America economist at Capital Economics.

但没有。

But no.

市场根本不关心。

Markets donotcare.dotcom.

不是真的。

Not really.

有时当世界变得特别疯狂时，投资者会涌入债券。

Sometimes when the world gets especially crazy, investors jump into bonds.

但他们没有。

They didn't.

或暂时抛售大量股票。

Or sell off a bunch of stocks temporarily.

但他们没有。

They didn't.

甚至油价也几乎没有波动，这一点凯尔稍后会谈到。

Even the price of oil barely flinched, which Kyle get to in a sec.

部分原因是世界已经够疯狂了。

And part of the reason is the world is already plenty crazy.

你有人工智能的建设，你知道，这是颠覆性的，然后你还有整个世界贸易秩序的彻底重组。

You have the AI build out, which, you know, is seismic, and then you've got this complete, you know, restructuring of the world trading order.

还有美国财政赤字达到了多年未见的水平，再加上欧洲和中东的战争。

And you have The US fiscal deficit reaching, you know, levels that it hasn't reached for a while and war in Europe and war in The Middle East.

简直感觉现在有太多事情在同时发生。

It's almost like there's so much going on at the minute.

委内瑞拉目前还未能引起足够关注，投资者可能对地缘政治事件有点麻木了。

Venezuela doesn't quite rise to the top right now, and investors are maybe just a little geopoliticked out.

埃里克·弗里德曼是北方信托财富管理公司的首席投资官。

Eric Friedman is chief investment officer at Northern Trust Wealth Management.

市场传递的信息是，除非某个因素显著改变消费者或企业活动，否则传统资产类别不会有广泛的反应。

What markets are saying is that unless it's a variable that really alters consumer or business activity, there isn't really much of a broad based reaction across more traditional asset classes.

尽管如此，市场上仍有一些角落对这件事确实做出了反应。

Now all that said, there are some nooks and crannies of the market that definitely did have an opinion on this whole thing.

有一些公司能从在委内瑞拉新建或升级基础设施中获益。

There are companies that benefit from the ability to actually put in new infrastructure or upgrade infrastructure in Venezuela.

像哈里伯顿这样的基础设施公司股价上涨了。

Infrastructure companies like Halliburton popped.

他们并不是唯一这样做的。

They weren't the only ones.

市场对大型石油公司的反应总体上是积极的。

The market reaction has been generally positive for the big oils.

斯蒂芬·多佛是富兰克林邓普顿投资的首席市场策略师。

Stephen Dover is chief market strategist at Franklin Templeton Investment.

能够处理委内瑞拉独特原油类型的墨西哥湾沿岸炼油商股票大幅上涨。

Stocks of Gulf Coast oil refiners, which can handle Venezuela's unique type of crude, shot up.

多佛表示，从长远来看，另一个行业也可能受益。

And Dover says down the line another industry might benefit.

我们正进入一个新世界，全球国防支出肯定会增加。

We are in a new world that definitely is going to require more defense spending globally.

因此，这可能是国防股票逐步上涨的众多原因之一。

So this might be one of many reasons why defense stocks creep up.

但总体而言，目前市场并没有太在意。

But overall, for now, markets are just not too bothered.

在纽约，我是 Marketplace 的萨布里·贝尼肖尔。

In New York, I'm Subri Benishore for Marketplace.

事实上，今天华尔街的市场根本不受影响。

Wall Street today in point of fact, markets very not bothered.

当我们公布数据时，我们会提供详细信息。

We'll have the details when we do the numbers.

好的。

Okay.

石油，正如萨布里所承诺的那样。

Oil, as Sabri promised.

原油今天略有上涨。

Crude, up a bit today.

他提到，大型石油生产商和石油服务公司的股票上涨了不少，这些公司可能进入委内瑞拉行业进行重新开发，但这只是短期行为。

Shares, he mentioned this, the big oil producers and oil services companies, the ones that might go in to redevelop the Venezuelan industry, up quite a bit, but a short term play that is not.

琳达·达伦斯是大西洋理事会能源与基础设施副总裁。

Linda Darrance is the vice president for energy and infrastructure at the Atlantic Council.

欢迎收听本节目。

Welcome to the program.

很高兴来到这里，

It's great to be here,

凯。

Kai.

作为这场对话的专家，当你在周末听到特朗普总统说，我们将让那些大型石油公司进入委内瑞拉，投入数十亿美元修复其石油基础设施时——这是他的原话——你第一反应是什么？

So as the expert in the conversation, when you heard over the weekend president Trump say that he we were gonna have our, and this is the quote, very large oil companies go in there and spend billions of dollars and fix the Venezuelan oil infrastructure.

你的第一反应是什么？

What was your first reaction?

我的意思是，你看。

I mean, you know, look.

委内瑞拉拥有巨大的石油储量，所以我能理解为什么人们会感兴趣，想要开发这些资源。

There's huge reserves in Venezuela, and so I can see where the attraction is for a conversation about tapping those reserves.

事实上，美国公司，无论是埃克森还是雪佛龙，目前在委内瑞拉都有深厚的历史。

The reality is US companies, whether it's Exxon or Chevron currently, have a deep history in Venezuela.

因此，总统考虑让美国公司参与并开发这一资源基础，是有其合理性的。

So there's a rationale on why the president would be thinking about having US companies, engage and build out that resource base.

我们能谈谈这些储量吗？

Can we talk actually about those reserves for a minute?

当然，上周末我们一直听说，委内瑞拉拥有世界上最大的已探明储量等等。

So, of course, over the weekend, we've all been hearing they've had the largest proven reserves in the world and and all the rest of it.

测试这些储量难道没有经济层面的考量吗？

Is there not an economic component to testing those reserves?

也就是说，当油价达到每桶120美元时，把委内瑞拉那种重质原油全部开采出来是有经济意义的。

That is to say it makes economic sense to get all that oil out of the ground, this this heavy heavy crude that the Venezuelans have, at, like, a $120 a barrel.

但在如今大约每桶60美元的价格下，这种经济意义可能就没那么大了？

Maybe not so much economic sense at at where it is today, 60 ish dollars a barrel?

如果你是一家美国能源公司，正在考虑对委内瑞拉进行投资，你不会指望六个月就收回成本。

Well, you know, if you're a a US energy company looking at investment in Venezuela, you're not looking at this for, you know, a six month return.

你考虑的是长达数十年的投资。

You're looking at decadal investments.

我认为这确实是关键议题。

And I I think that that's really the conversation.

他们并不指望今天的油价。

That oil, they're not counting on a price today.

周末消息公布后，油价仅上涨了大约一美元。

It was only up about a dollar, following the news over the weekend.

因此，我认为吸引行业参与像委内瑞拉这样拥有巨大储量地区的，正是这一点——但他们不会仅仅因为短期快速回报而做出这样的决定。

And so that's where the attraction, I think, comes from the industry who wanna be engaged in places that have big reserves like Venezuela, but they're not gonna make that decision just based on a a quick turn and a quick buck.

不过，他们也会关注委内瑞拉如今所面临的地缘政治不确定性，可以说，这种不确定性堆积如山。

They're also, though, gonna look at geopolitical uncertainty of which Venezuela now has, boatloads, shall we say.

我认为这是一个非常好的观点。

I think that that's a pretty good point.

目前，副总统德尔西·罗德里格斯是委内瑞拉的临时领导人。

And, you know, the vice president, Delsy Rodriguez, is the interim leader of, of Venezuela right now.

因此，加拉加斯仍由马杜罗政权控制，这些地面上的政治风险将严重阻碍大规模资本支出投资。

So Caracas is still having, Maduro's regime in control, and those above ground political risks are really gonna alienate the ability for large scale CapEx investments.

对吧？

Right?

如果你是一家主要的美国生产商，你会突然把原本计划用于西德克萨斯和二叠纪盆地的资金投入委内瑞拉吗？

If you're a major US producer, are you gonna allocate dollars that you had intended for West Texas and the Permian to Venezuela all of a sudden?

我大概不会。

I'd probably not.

在人们做出这种大规模决策之前，我们需要看到更多的商业确定性。

You know, we're gonna need to see a little bit more business certainty before people make that kind of large scale move.

让我快速转向这件事的地缘政治层面。

Let me turn you very quickly to the geopolitics of this thing.

目前大量委内瑞拉石油都销往中国。

A whole bunch of Venezuelan oil right now goes to the Chinese.

这会让事情变得稍微复杂一点，你不觉得吗？

That complicates things just a tiny bit, wouldn't you say?

我的意思是，当然。

I mean, sure.

委内瑞拉石油流向中国，但中国目前每天进口量已超过一千万桶，达到一千二百万桶。

Venezuelan oil goes to the Chinese, but the Chinese are now importing well over 10,000,000 barrels a day, 12,000,000 barrels a day.

这有点像美国大约20年前页岩革命前的状态。

It kind of where The United States was in, about 20 ago before the shale revolution.

对吧？

Right?

因此，这只是中国整体供应中的一小部分，我相信他们正在关注其他供应商，比如俄罗斯。

So this is a small sliver of of overall Chinese supply, and I'm sure that they're looking at other suppliers like Russia.

许多委内瑞拉石油流向了一些小型炼油厂，也就是小规模的微型炼油厂，而不是大型炼油企业。

A lot of the Venezuelan oil has gone to some teapot refineries, little small guys, micro refineries, not the big guys.

所以，这部分需求可能会有所减少，但我相信中国经济不会因此受到太大冲击。

And, and so maybe some of that ebbs, but I'm sure the Chinese economy isn't gonna be hit too hard by this.

正如你所指出的，委内瑞拉的石油在每天约一亿桶的全球石油供需总量中只占很小一部分。

As you pointed out, Venezuela is a tiny slice of the 100 ish million barrels a day, oil, both supply and demand.

现在世界需要委内瑞拉的石油吗？

Does the world need Venezuelan oil right now?

我们还不错。

We're doing fine.

供过于求。

There's a glut.

我的意思是，短期内可能供过于求，但每个油田的回报都在递减。

I mean, there may be a glut in the near term, but, you know, there's every single reservoir has a diminishing return.

是的。

Yeah.

随着这些产量下降成为现实，你必须持续投资，才能维持我们今天的供应规模。

And as those production declines are realized, you gotta keep investing to actually re you know, achieve the supply scale we have today.

而在一些管理不善、资金短缺、投资不足的地方，比如委内瑞拉，要恢复产能所需的时间和准备期，远长于佩米安盆地钻机六个月到九个月的周转周期。

And sometimes, especially in places that have, you know, such incredible mismanagement, capital shortfalls, and underinvestment in the case of Venezuela, that's gonna require more time and more lead time than, than a six month, nine month turnaround on a Permian rig.

是的。

Yeah.

让我请你做个地缘政治的平衡分析，然后你就可以回去继续忙你的本职工作了。

Let me let me ask you to do the geopolitical balancing act here, and then I'll let you get back to your day job.

这对大型美国石油公司来说，成本效益分析是什么？

What's the what's the cost benefit analysis here for the the big American oil companies?

是委内瑞拉石油的长期潜力，还是仍然未知的政治和地缘政治不确定性与不稳定性？

Is it the long term potential of Venezuelan oil, or is it the still unknown political and geopolitical uncertainty and instability?

我的意思是，美国总统对解决委内瑞拉局势非常坚定。

I mean, the the president of The United States is pretty adamant about getting the situation right in Venezuela.

总统甚至在讲话中表示，如果委内瑞拉的新领导层不配合，可能会有第二波军事行动。

The president going so far in his remarks even say there could be a second wave, of military, efforts should the new leadership in Venezuela not get in line.

所以我认为，我们需要做的就是等待，观察华盛顿会采取什么行动，而美国公司所拥有的所有专业知识和知识，都应为那一刻做好准备——当委内瑞拉真正开放时，能够实现部分石油供应进入美国市场。

And so I I think, you know, what we need to do is wait, watch Washington do what it needs to do, and all of the expertise and all that knowledge that that American companies do have, should be being prepared for that moment when it actually does open up and be able to realize some of that supply coming to The US market.

正如你所知，我们的炼油厂是为重质原油设计的。

As you know, our refineries are set up for heavy crudes.

嗯。

Mhmm.

而且存在复杂而精密的炼油系统，长期来看能够从这种供应中获益，美国石油公司对此心知肚明。

And and there are complicated, complex refining systems that can actually benefit from this supply long term, and ARC oil companies know that.

对。

Right.

伊丽莎白·特拉沃尔几周前为我们做了这个报道。

Elizabeth Travol did that story for us, a couple of weeks ago.

请允许我以最大的尊重说，总统对此事的处理以及其内阁官员的言论，并不能让人感到地缘政治的稳定。

Let me just with all possible respect, the president's handling of this and and the remarks from his cabinet officials don't lend themselves to a feeling of geopolitical stability.

没错。

No.

但我们也才刚刚过去三天，当时三角洲部队进入了加拉加斯。

But we're also only, you know, three days past the moment when, Delta Force entered into Caracas.

我们需要政府进行数月的审慎努力。

We need months of of deliberate effort by the administration.

而从华盛顿的所有迹象来看，这正是白宫的意图。

And and from all signals here in Washington, that's the intent, of this White House.

琳达·达兰斯是大西洋理事会能源与基础设施副总裁。

Linda Darrance is the vice president for energy and infrastructure at the Atlantic Council.

达兰斯先生，感谢您抽出时间。

Mister Darrance, thanks for your time, sir.

我非常感激。

I do appreciate it.

能与您交谈真是太好了。

It's great to be with you.

抛开地缘政治不谈，在2026年第一个完整的星期里，我们将对2025年最后几个月的经济状况有一个清晰的了解。

Geopolitics aside, here in this first full week of 2026, we're gonna get a pretty good picture of how the last few months of 2025 went for this economy.

职位空缺数据、工厂订单以及工人生产率等数据都将陆续公布。

Data on job openings and factory orders and worker productivity too are all gonna be coming out.

而到了周五，重头戏来了——12月的就业报告。

And then on Friday, the biggie, the December jobs report.

在这样一个值得关注的事项层出不穷的一周里，市场观察节目的卡拉·哈维尔拨打了若干电话，了解人们将重点关注哪些内容。

So in a week where there is no shortage of things to focus on, Marketplace's Carla Javier made some calls to see where people are gonna be directing their attention.

我们联系了一些投资银行经济学家、微观经济学教授和个人理财专家，询问他们本周最期待关注的数据，他们会告诉您。

Get some investment bank economists, a microeconomics professor, and a personal finance expert on the line and ask them what they're most excited to see this week, and they'll tell you.

我们将重点关注的数据都是关于就业市场的。

The key data that we're gonna be watching for is all about the job market.

2026年初，我们的大部分注意力将放在美国劳动力市场上。

Most of our attention in early twenty twenty six will be on The US labor market.

我特别感兴趣的是JOLTS，即职位空缺与劳动力流动调查。

I'm particularly interested in seeing the JOLTS, the job opening and labor turnover survey.

就业报告是最有趣的信息。

The jobs report is really the most interesting piece of information.

由于政府停摆，去年年底很难获得有关劳动力市场的及时联邦报告。

Timely federal reports about the labor market were hard to come by late last year due to the government shutdown.

但这些数据很重要，因为它们是美联储本月晚些时候开会决定利率政策时考虑的重要因素。

But those data are important because they're a big part of what the Federal Reserve will consider when it meets later this month to determine what to do with interest rates.

雷德学院的埃琳·考德尔·亨特表示，企业在制定计划时也会关注这些数据。

Erin Caudle Hunt at Reed College says businesses pay attention too as they plan.

如果很多人被解雇，我就更难卖出东西了。

If lots of people are being separated from their jobs, it's gonna be harder for me to sell things.

这是因为就业市场的状况也会影响消费者的感受和支出，BMO资本市场公司的詹妮弗·李表示。

That's because how the job market is doing also influences how consumers feel and spend, says Jennifer Lee at BMO Capital Markets.

拥有一份工作并知道有稳定的收入，我认为这充分体现了消费者的信心。

Just having a job and knowing that you have a steady income, I think, speaks volumes for consumers, for consumer confidence.

我们还将从密歇根大学获得这方面的更新信息。

Which we'll also get updates on from the University of Michigan.

情绪会渗透到整个经济中，Bankrate的泰德·罗斯曼表示。

Feelings trickle through the economy, says Ted Rossman at Bankrate.

大约三分之二的经济活动由消费者支出驱动。

About two thirds of economic activity is driven by consumer spending.

安迪说，如果消费放缓，可能会导致经济放缓。

Andy says if spending slows down, that could lead to an economic slowdown.

罗斯曼表示，美联储发布的消费者信贷数据可以让我们更清楚地了解今年早期假日购物季的情况。

Rossman says the consumer credit update from the Federal Reserve can tell us a bit more about how the early holiday shopping season went.

不过，摩根士丹利的迈克尔·盖平表示，周五发布的就业报告仍是值得关注的重点。

Still, the jobs report out Friday is the big one to keep an eye on, says Michael Gapin at Morgan Stanley.

他说，这些信息通常对债券市场的影响比对股票市场更大。

He says that information usually moves bond markets more than it does equity markets.

但如果这是就业恢复和劳动力市场状况良好的信号，我也预计股票市场会对此做出积极反应。

But if it's a signal that hiring has rebounded and and the labor market looks healthy, I would expect equity markets to react favorably to that as well.

虽然现在每个人都关注就业市场，但加平表示，另一个值得关注的是通货膨胀。

While everyone's interested in the job market right now, Gapin says the other thing to keep an eye on will be inflation.

我是卡罗拉·哈维尔，来自《市场》。

I'm Carla Javier for Marketplace.

接下来。

Coming up.

我现在开始明白保险是如何运作的了。

Now I'm starting to realize how insurance operate.

只能赶紧等待。

Just hurry up and wait.

我同意你的看法，但首先，我们先来看一下数据。

Can't argue with you there, but first, let's do the numbers.

今天道琼斯工业指数上涨了594点。

Dow Industrial's up 594 points today.

这是百分之一点二十五。

That's one and a quarter percent.

收盘于48,977点，蓝筹股表现如此。

Closed at 48,977, did the blue chips.

纳斯达克指数上涨了160点，约百分之零点七，收于23,395点。

The Nasdaq climbed a 160 points, about seven tenths percent, finished at twenty three three ninety five.

标普500指数上涨43点，相当于百分之零点六七，收于6,902点。

The S and P 500 up 43 points, two thirds of 1%, six niner zero two.

今天，石油生产商中，雪佛龙——唯一一家在委内瑞拉运营的美国石油公司——当日上涨了5.1%。

Oil producers today, Chevron, the only US oil company operating in Venezuela jumped 5.1% on the day.

我刚刚提到的雪佛龙，还有康菲石油，当然也上涨了2.6%。

Chevron, which I just mentioned, ConocoPhillips, of course, gained two and six tenths percent.

炼油商菲利普斯66上涨了7.2%。

Refiner Phillips sixty six expanded seven and two tenths percent.

国防股怎么样？

Defense stocks, how about them?

国防承包商洛克希德·马丁上涨了2.9%。

Defense contractor Lockheed Martin grew 2.9.

基础设施开发商哈里伯顿当天飙升了7.8%。

Infrastructure development firm Halliburton surged seven and eight tenths of 1% on the day.

债券价格上涨了。

Bond prices went up.

当这种情况发生时，十年期债券收益率下降至4.15%。

When that happens, the yield goes down 4.15% on the ten year.

您正在收听《市场》。

You're listening to marketplace.

这是《市场》。

This is marketplace.

我是凯·里斯达尔。

I'm Kai Risdahl.

正如萨布里一开始提到的，今天的大型市场指标表现得非常平静。

The big market indicators today as Sabri started us off with, very not bothered.

但正如你可能在这里听过一两次的那样，市场和经济并不如此。

But as you have perhaps heard here a time or two, markets, economy, not.

《市场》节目的贾斯汀·霍对此进行了更深入的分析。

Marketplaces' Justin Ho dug into things a little bit.

目前悬而未决的一个问题是，美国对委内瑞拉的袭击可能如何影响美元价值。

One question hanging in the air right now is how The US attack on Venezuela could affect the value of the dollar.

我们已经收到了客户提出的大量问题，而且他们对未来的走向感到非常担忧。

We already gotten a lot of questions from clients and a ton of concern about where things are gonna be headed going forward.

这是来自Monnex USA交易总监胡安·佩雷斯的说法。

That's Juan Perez, director of trading at Monnex USA.

他说，他的许多客户是正在考虑是否应在当前汇率下进行跨境支付的公司，他们想知道美元是会上涨还是下跌。

He says many of his clients are companies trying to figure out whether they should make cross border payments at today's foreign exchange rates, and they wanna know if the dollar is gonna go up or down.

但佩雷斯表示，问题在于，他其实并没有确切的答案。

Problem is, Perez says, he doesn't really have an answer.

这真是实力的展示。

This is such a show of strength.

那么这意味着未来美元的价值会持续上涨吗？

Does that mean going forward that the US dollar is just gonna rise in value?

对吧？

Right?

这是一种解读。

That's one interpretation.

还是说，这件事让全世界如此担忧，以至于美国将被进一步孤立，从而提升了其他货币的价值？

Or does this concern the world so much that it's going to isolate The United States even more in which it creates higher value for alternatives?

另一个重大悬而未决的问题是，这是否会影响美国经济。

Another big open question is whether this could affect The US economy.

凯西·博斯特扬尼克是全国保险公司首席经济学家。

Kathy Bostjanzik is chief economist at Nationwide.

她说，自己一直在回应客户关于油价可能如何变化的提问。

She says she's been fielding questions from clients about what could happen to oil prices.

这对委内瑞拉的石油生产可能产生什么影响？

What impact could this, have on oil production, from Venezuela?

那么，最终如何传导到消费者价格通胀？

And then eventually, how does that feed through to consumer price inflation?

博斯扬奇克表示，如果委内瑞拉增加石油产量，在其他条件不变的情况下，这应该会降低油价，从而提振消费支出。

Bostjancic says if Venezuela does hike oil production, all else equal, that should lower oil prices, which should boost consumer spending.

但博斯扬奇克表示，即使是这一基本理论也值得怀疑。

But Bostjancic says even that basic theory is iffy.

这可能需要多年才能显现出来。

It may take years for that to play out.

并非金融领域的每个角落都担心美国强行罢免委内瑞拉总统所带来的影响。

Not every corner of the finance sector is worried about the effects of The US forcibly removing Venezuela's president.

但来自佐治亚州梅肯市美国自豪银行的首席执行官多米尼克·马尔坦表示，他的许多客户对经济不稳定越来越担忧。

But Dominic Mjartan, CEO of American Pride Bank in Macon, Georgia, says many of his clients have been getting more concerned about economic instability.

所以我认为，在他们看来，这种地缘政治不稳定只会加剧这一情况。

So I think in their mind, this geopolitical instability is just going to add to it.

亚登表示，一些客户一直在应对收入下降和成本持续高企的问题。

Yarden says some clients have been dealing with weakening revenues, also persistently high costs.

因此，他们中的许多人变得谨慎，这也影响了银行。

As a result, many of them are being cautious, which affects the bank too.

那我会开设另一个分行吗？

So am I am I going to open another branch?

我会雇佣更多人吗？

Am I going to hire more people?

我会进入新市场吗？

Am I going to expand into new markets?

一年前，我会毫不犹豫地说当然。

A year ago, I would have said absolutely.

经济正在蓬勃发展。

Economy is booming.

一切都很顺利。

Everything is going well.

但今天，他说，可能不会了。

But today, he says, probably not.

我是Justin Ho，来自《市场》节目。

I'm Justin Ho for Marketplace.

去年三月，大约在伊顿大火八到十周后，我们前往阿尔塔迪纳，与住在洛杉矶山麓地区的几位商家交谈，他们的生计在那场造成19人死亡、数万栋建筑被毁或受损的大火中化为乌有。

Last March, about eight or ten weeks after the Eaton fire, we went up to Altadena to talk to some business owners up there in the Foothills above LA, people whose livelihoods had been destroyed in the fire that killed 19 and destroyed or damaged tens of thousands of structures.

乔伊·加洛韦是一位第二代地产主，是我们当时采访的人之一。

Joey Galloway, a second generation property owner, was one of those people we talked to.

我不喜欢去那里，因为我讨厌看到那些废墟。

I don't like going up there because I hate looking at all that debris.

是啊。

Yeah.

就是，太让人沮丧了。

Like, it's just, like, depressing.

我说，我想现在就把它们清理掉。

I said, I wanna get it cleared out now.

他说，你不能碰它。

He's like, you can't touch it.

本质上，我无法行动，因为我无法像我想的那样快速行动。

In essence, I couldn't move as I can't move as fast as I wanna move.

乔在去年三月的那次采访中提到的废墟，就是他的其中一栋建筑。

That debris Joe is talking about in that interview from last March is one of his buildings.

曾经有七家商铺的地方，现在只剩下外墙的砖墙还立着。

Just the exterior brick walls are still standing where seven businesses used to be.

我父亲四十二年前买下了这栋楼。

My father bought this building forty two years ago.

这栋楼原本属于一个非裔美国家庭。

An African American family owned it.

他认识那个业主。

He knew the owner.

所以我父亲买下了它。

So my dad bought it.

这其实就是那种事情。

It was just kinda one of those things.

我爸爸就让我去跟那个家伙聊聊。

My dad just let me go talk to this guy.

你那时候还是个孩子。

You were a kid.

你当时大概十二岁左右吧。

You were, like, 12 ish.

对吧？

Right?

对。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

比尔·盖洛韦，乔伊的爸爸，是这个地区最著名的黑人商人之一。

Bill Galloway, Joey's dad, was one of the most prominent black businessmen in the region.

所以这座建筑对乔伊来说远不止是一座普通的建筑。

So this building is really more than just a building for Joey.

今年三月，在阿尔塔登纳的每个角落，你都能看到黑色的残骸散落在住宅和商业用地之间。

Back in March, everywhere you looked in Altadena, blackened debris was scattered across residential and commercial lots.

你看到一些大楼摇摇欲坠，但更奇怪的是，紧挨着的另一栋楼却完好无损。

You saw buildings on the brink of collapse, but also, and this was the wild thing, right next door would be a building that hadn't been touched.

就在烧毁的那栋楼对面的巷子另一头，是乔伊的另一栋建筑。

Like, just across the alleyway from the one that burned, another one of Joey's buildings.

过去一年里，我们一直与乔伊和其他商家交谈，上个月我们回去时发现，变化很多，但没变的也很多。

We've been visiting with Joey and other business owners over the past year, and what we saw when we went back at the end of last month was that a whole lot has changed, but a whole lot really hasn't.

你知道吗，从莫尔卡里开车上来，经过这些住宅区，如果你不知道这里发生过火灾，根本察觉不到任何异常。

You know, a lot of these residential areas driving up here from Moorcarry, if you didn't know there'd been a fire, you wouldn't know there'd been a fire.

对吧？

Right?

我的意思是，可能只有几棵被烧焦的树，仅此而已。

I mean, a couple of burned trees maybe, but that's about it.

清理了这么多东西，然后你就到了商业区。

So much has been cleared, and then you get to the commercial space.

这次我们在阿尔塔登纳商业区的一条商业街上见到了乔伊，那里是他命名为‘马里波萨交汇处’的地方。

We met Joey this time in the middle of Altadena's business district on a commercial block that he has branded Mariposa Junction.

他的两栋建筑位于马里波萨大道和湖滨大道的拐角处。

His two buildings are at the corner of Mariposa And Lake Avenues.

他从一辆大皮卡上下来，穿着卡哈特T恤、工装靴和卡其裤。

He gets out of his big pickup wearing a Carhartt t shirt, work boots, and some khaki pants.

你好吗，乔伊？

How are you, Joey?

很高兴见到你。

Good to see you.

嗨，乔伊。

Hi, Joey.

很高兴见到你。

Good to see you.

我很好。

I'm good.

我很好。

I'm good.

我其实想问一下。

I'm actually gonna question.

嗯。

Well.

‘好’这个词太强烈了。

The good's too strong of a word.

好吧，继续说下去。

Well, keep going on that.

你的意思是，我的意思是，你看。

What do you mean you're it's like I mean, look.

几周前你举办了一场派对。

You had a party a couple of weeks ago.

这些企业中有一栋楼是开放的。

The businesses and one of the buildings is open.

来吧。

Come on.

开放吗？

Are open?

这是看待这种情况的积极一面。

That is the positive light the positive light on this situation.

我们确实举办了一场盛大的重新开业活动

We did have a big grand regrand opening

去年秋天。

last fall.

顺便说一下，邀请了。

Invite, by the way.

感谢。

Appreciate

那个。

that.

为此道歉。

Apologize for that.

我们举办了一次重新盛大开业仪式，包括剪彩活动，由帕萨迪纳城市学院基金会和帕萨迪纳城市学院小企业开发中心主办，嗯。

We had a a regrand opening, a ribbon cutting that was hosted by Pasadena City College Foundation and Pasadena City College Small Business Development Center Mhmm.

还有富国银行。

And Wells Fargo.

每位租户都从他们那里获得了补助金，他们还支付了剪彩活动的费用。

Each tenant received, grant money from them, and they also paid for the, ribbon cutting.

乔在过去一年里最常提到的事情，你在我们从首次采访中播放的那段视频里也听到了，就是办事耗时太长。

The thing Joe has talked about the most over the past year, and you heard it in that clip we played from our very first interview, is how long it's taking to get things done.

官僚程序、寻找承包商、油漆工、屋顶工，以及在这些工种的需求远远超过供给时，找人进行烟雾和环境清理。

Red tape, finding contractors and painters and roofers and people to do smoke and environmental remediation when demand for those trades so far outstrips supply.

而这还只是针对他那栋仍然完好的建筑。

And that's just for his building that's still standing.

我想先铺垫一下，提醒大家。

I wanna set the stage here for just to remind people.

两栋楼，其中一栋没有烧毁。

Two buildings, one of which did not did not burn.

租户已经回来了。

Tenants are back in.

对吧？

Right?

六户中有五户回来了，或者全部六户都回来了。

Five out of six or all six.

对吧？

Right?

六户中有五户？

Five out of six?

六户中有五户。

Five out of six.

六栋中有五栋，第六栋是家餐厅，我们大概刚完成一半的装修。

Five out of six, and the sixth one is, is a restaurant, and it's we're probably halfway through that build out.

好的。

Alright.

我们得指出另一栋楼，它现在还只是个空壳。

We do have to point out the other building, which is still just a shell.

这是以前开五金店的那栋楼。

This is the one that had the hardware store.

我们将会采访吉米·罗洛迪尼。

We're gonna talk to Jimmy Rolodini.

为什么一栋好，另一栋却不好？

And what is how is one good and one not?

到底发生了什么？

What's going on?

虽然我从未经历过这种情况，但现在我开始理解保险公司的运作方式了。

I'm although I've never been through this situation before, now I'm starting to realize how insurance operate.

只是

Just

急着等。

hurry up and wait.

你知道，他们会在我一件事上给我通融，但在其他事情上却抵制。

You know, I they they'll give me leeway on one thing and push back on other things.

他们抵制的那些事情毫无道理。

And the things that give me push back on don't make sense.

我给你举个例子。

Let give you an example.

他们认定这座建筑必须拆除。

They've they've deemed the building needs to be torn down.

对。

Right.

对。

Right.

对。

Right.

对。

Right.

我们谈过这个。

We talked about that

他们已经书面通知我，并且给了我拆除这座建筑的资金。

last They've given me in writing, they've given me the money to demo the building.

是的。

Yeah.

最新的说法是，你可以拆除建筑，但我们不会支付重新浇筑地基和混凝土板的费用。

The latest is is you can demo the building, but we're not gonna pay to put the slab back in and foundation.

天哪。

Oh, man.

抱歉。

Sorry.

不好意思，我笑了。

I'm sorry to laugh.

这简直太让人震惊了。

That's kinda oh my god.

所以你们给了我钱，也同意我拆掉一切，但却不肯付钱让我重建地基。

So so you you've given me the money and the okay to rip everything out, but you're not gonna pay me to put the foundation back in.

哇。

Wow.

乔伊估计重新铺设地基得花六位数。

Joey figures relaying the foundation will run him into the 6 figures.

自从火灾发生以来，他一直在申请保险赔偿，以补偿两栋楼的租金损失，但时间正在流逝。

He's been collecting insurance to cover his loss of rental income on both buildings since the fire, but the clock is ticking.

重建拖得越久，他的保险覆盖期限就越可能在被烧毁大楼的租客搬回来之前用完。

And the longer it takes to rebuild, the higher the odds his coverage runs out before his tenants in the burned out building can move back in.

对于仍能居住的大楼里的租客来说，今年的租金将提前到期。

For the tenants in the building that's still standing, rent is gonna be coming due early this year.

我们沿着通往Sure的方向走一小段吧。

Let's just take a little walk down towards Sure.

我们看看。

Let's see.

我们在马里波萨路上。

We're on Mariposa.

我们要沿着湖边走下去，看看情况如何。

We're gonna go down the lake and and just see what's what.

我们有麦金蒂盖特画廊。

So we've got the McGintysgate Gallery.

我们有个设计店。

We've got the design shop.

这里将是餐厅吗？

This is gonna be the restaurant?

它会是什么类型的餐厅？

What kind of restaurant is it gonna be?

它将是欧洲风格的葡萄酒熟食店，提供啤酒和葡萄酒。

It's gonna be European style wine deli, beer wine.

好的。

Alright.

你知道的，会有一些热食，但也许也会有一些冷三明治或熟食拼盘之类的东西。

You know, some some hot items, but, you know, maybe some cold sandwiches or charcuteries, things like that.

打印。

Printing.

这个

The

肉类和奶酪。

meats and cheeses.

什么是

What's

贝蒂的？

Betsy's?

Betsy's是新开的。

Betsy's new.

对吧？

Right?

Betsy在火灾前三个月开业的。

Betsy Betsy opened three months before the fire.

哦，对了。

Oh, that's right.

对的。

That's right.

没错。

That's right.

他们那家餐厅。

They restaurant.

对吧？

Right?