财富负效应

今天，我们将讨论工作、日益减少的401(k)账户，以及小型车的消失。

Today, we'll talk jobs, dwindling four zero one k's, and the disappearance of the subcompact car.

当然，我们也会谈到关税。

And, of course, we'll cover tariffs too.

本节目由美国公共媒体出品，这里是《市场》。

From American Public Media, this is Marketplace.

在纽约，我是克里斯滕·施瓦布，代替凯·里兹多尔为您主持。

In New York, I'm Kristen Schwab in for Kai Rizdoll.

今天是4月1日，星期二。

It's Tuesday, April 1.

很高兴您与我们同在。

Good to have you with us.

今天的头条数字与那个以T开头的词无关，不过我们稍后也会谈到关税。

The headline number of the day has nothing to do with the t word, though we will get to tariffs in a bit.

今天，我们首先关注JOLTS报告，也就是劳工统计局今天早上发布的职位空缺与劳动力流动调查。

Today, we kick things off with the JOLTS report or the job openings and labor turnover survey out this morning from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

今天的关键短语是‘变化不大’。

Changed little is the phrase of the day.

二月份有760万个职位空缺和540万人被雇佣，这两个数字与一月份大致相同。

February saw 7,600,000 job openings and 5,400,000 hires, both about the same as in January.

辞职和裁员的人数也没有太大变化。

And the number of quits and layoffs didn't change much either.

请记住，二月份的数据并未反映联邦裁员的大部分情况。

Remember, February's numbers do not reflect the bulk of federal layoffs.

我们可能要等到周五发布的三月就业报告，才能更清楚地了解这一情况。

We might get a better picture of that come the March jobs report out on Friday.

不过总体而言，这份JOLTS数据显示劳动力市场保持稳定且良好。

Overall, though, this jolts data shows what looks like a steady decent labor market.

但有一个例外：小型企业中的裁员有所增加。

With one asterisk, layoffs were up at the smallest of small businesses.

这些是指员工少于10人的公司。

That's companies with fewer than 10 workers.

市场观察频道的丹尼尔·阿克曼调查了小企业的人员配置决策。

Marketplaces' Daniel Ackerman looked into small business staffing decisions.

埃里克·桑德斯在南卡罗来纳州默特尔比奇经营着卡罗来纳景观与清洁公司。

Eric Saunders runs Carolina Landscaping and Cleanup near Myrtle Beach, South Carolina.

他只有几名全职员工，由于目前客户愿意花多少钱存在很大不确定性，他根本不会招聘新员工。

He's got just a couple full time employees, and with major question marks over how much his customers are willing to spend these days, he sure isn't hiring.

是的。

Yeah.

保持稳定。

Hold and steady.

除非市场发生变化，人们不再对每一分钱都如此担忧，否则现在要雇佣员工确实很难。

Unless the market changes to where people aren't so worried about every little cent they have, it's kinda hard to do anything right now with laborers.

劳工经济学家罗恩·赫特里克表示，面对不确定性保持稳定，正是今天JOLTS报告的主题。

Holding steady in the face of uncertainty was kind of the theme of today's JOLTS report, says Ron Hetrick, senior labor economist with Lightcast.

工人们不想换地方。

Workers don't wanna go anywhere.

雇主也不愿意雇佣。

Employers don't wanna hire.

大家都停滞不前。

Everybody just freezes.

然而，规模非常小的企业裁员速度比其他任何企业都快。

Really small businesses, though, were laying off workers at a higher rate than anyone else.

巴德学院的经济学家帕夫利娜·切列娃表示，这是一个值得关注的指标，因为尽管员工少于10人的企业仅占总就业人数的约八分之一。

Pavlina Cherneva, an economist at Bard College, says that's an indicator to watch because even though firms with fewer than 10 workers represent just about one eighth of total employment

在我看来，它们的行为是整个经济趋势的先行指标。

To me, their behavior is bellwether for overall trends in the economy.

切列娃表示，这是因为小企业别无选择，只能迅速应对经济变化。

Chernayva says that's because small firms have no choice but to respond quickly to a changing economy.

小企业主真的是日复一日、月复一月地经营。

A small business owner really is working day to day, month to month.

他们没有储蓄，缺乏流动性，也无法像大公司那样轻易获得信贷。

They don't have savings, liquidity, access to credit nearly to the same extent as a big company would.

因此，当小企业感到需要降低成本时，削减员工队伍便成为一个颇具吸引力的手段，”Progressive Think Tank Groundwork Collaborative的执行董事林赛·欧文斯表示。

So when small businesses feel the need to cut costs, reducing workforce is a tempting lever to pull, says Lindsey Owens, executive director of Progressive Think Tank Groundwork Collaborative.

我们对小企业不确定性的衡量指标已经飙升。

Our measures of small business uncertainty have skyrocketed.

因此，对于我来说，看到小企业开始裁员完全不令人意外。

And so for me, it is no surprise at all that we're starting to see the layoffs in small businesses.

但所有规模的企业情绪都已恶化，经济研究非营利组织Burning Glass研究所的盖伊·伯杰表示。

But sentiment has soured among businesses of all sizes, says Guy Berger of economic research nonprofit, The Burning Glass Institute.

只是而已

It's just that

大型企业就像，你知道的，我们总是开玩笑说它是一艘超级油轮。

A large enterprise is like you know, we always joke is a supertanker.

对吧？

Right?

它需要很长时间才能转向。

It takes time to turn around.

因此，人员编制的变化可能需要额外一到两个月才能显现。

So changes to headcount might take an extra month or two to play out.

我是丹尼尔·阿克曼，来自《市场》节目。

I'm Daniel Ackerman for Marketplace.

今天华尔街涨跌互现，市场正等待更多关于关税政策的消息。

Wall Street today, a little up, a little down as it waits to hear more on tariff policy.

当我们做数据报道时，会提供详细信息。

We'll have the details when we do the numbers.

在明天4月2日，也就是特朗普总统所谓的‘解放日’，美国计划对进口汽车、轻型卡车和汽车零部件征收25%的关税，这项措施上周已公布。

Tomorrow on April 2, or what president Trump has been calling liberation day, The US intends to impose a 25% tariff on imported vehicles, light trucks, and auto parts, which were announced last week.

可能还有其他关税正在考虑中，但特朗普尚未公布其完整计划。

There may be other tariffs on the table, but Trump has not yet announced his full plan.

不断变化且未公开的计划很难提前应对。

The thing about ever shifting and unannounced plans is they're hard to plan for.

所以我们联系了我们的一位常驻嘉宾。

So we called up one of our regulars.

格雷琴·布劳是宾夕法尼亚州埃里市物流Plus公司的报关经理。

Gretchen Blau is a customs broker manager at Logistics Plus in Erie, Pennsylvania.

你好，格雷琴。

Hi, Gretchen.

你最近怎么样？

How are you?

还不错。

Good.

现在问这个问题是不是有点敏感？

Is that a loaded question right now?

是的。

Yeah.

这周确实有点。

This week, it kinda is.

你能跟我讲讲自我们上次联系后发生了什么吗？

Can you catch me up on what's happened since we last heard from you?

现在工作情况怎么样？

What is work like right now?

嗯，有点混乱。

Well, it's a little crazy.

目前钢铁和铝的关税已经生效，而且明天还有一批新的关税要实施。

We have the steel and aluminum tariffs that are in effect, and then we have a bunch of other tariffs that are going into effect tomorrow.

钢铁和铝的关税是25%，没有任何豁免或例外。

The steel and aluminum, that has the 25% tariff on it with no exclusions, no exceptions.

但还有一些成品也适用这项关税，如果成品中钢铁或铝的成分占比很大，我们就需要把所有部件拆分成物料清单，然后只有钢铁或铝的部分征收25%的关税，其余部分不适用。

But there's also some finished goods that have this tariff on it as well where if a a large component of steel or aluminum in the finished good, we basically need to break everything out into a bill of material, and then that 25% only applies to the steel or the aluminum, and then the rest doesn't have the 25%.

这对很多进口商来说是个问题，因为我们都没预料到这种情况。

So that's presenting a problem for a lot of our importers because none of us were expecting that.

如果他们没有这些信息，那么25%的关税就会应用到整个产品上，但也没人希望这样，不过现在的问题是，到底是仓储成本高还是关税更高。

If they don't have that information, then everything has the 25% applied to the entire good, which no one really wants that to happen either, but you have way what costs more of the storage or the tariff at this point.

对。

Right.

嗯，这中间的门道可真不少。

Well, that's a that's a lot of ins and outs.

你们怎么才能跟上这些繁琐细节呢？规则总在变，我猜你们……

How do you even how do you even keep track of all the the nitty gritty when the rules are constantly changing and, you know I assume you

说实话，这并不容易。

guys Well, it's not easy.

你们得把每个细节都做到位，

Your i's

把每个T字都画清楚。

and cross your t's.

哦，这真不是总那么容易。

Oh, it it's not it's not always easy.

我们主要依赖联邦登记册的更新，但它的更新往往不及时。

Mostly, we're relying on the federal register when it's updated, but that's not always updated right away.

以前政府网站上会有事实摘要，但现在似乎都消失了。

We used to have fact sheets available on, the government websites, and those seem to have gone away.

所以我们很大程度上依赖新闻媒体和其他渠道来获取大量关于这些政策如何实施的信息，因为我们没有现成的资料。

So we're relying a lot on on, you know, just news publications and whatnot to get a lot a lot of the information as to how things are gonna apply because we don't have things readily available.

因此，我们努力让客户和运营团队及时了解情况，但当我们无法确定未来会发生什么时，要做到这一点并不总是容易的。

So we're trying to keep our our customers up to date and our operations folks up to date, and it's not always easy to do that when we're not quite sure what's gonna happen.

例如，明天加拿大和墨西哥将面临25%的关税，同时还会有报复性关税，但我们还不确定这些关税会涵盖哪些其他国家的产品。

For example, tomorrow, there's there's scheduled to be 25% on Canada and Mexico and also retaliatory tariffs, which we aren't quite certain what those are gonna include, for other countries.

你知道吗，我昨天跟一位小型香蕉进口商聊过，她说自己几乎没有其他选择。

You know, I talked to I talked to a small scale banana importer yesterday who was talking about how she just doesn't have a lot of alternatives.

她必须从墨西哥进口。

She's gotta import from Mexico.

是的。

Right.

你从客户那里听到多少关于购买美国货或支持美国产品的说法？

What are you hearing from your clients about buying in America or buying American?

嗯，你在Facebook帖子的评论里经常能看到这种说法，但那并不总是现实的。

Well, you know, you you see that a lot on on comments on Facebook posts and whatnot, but that's not all that's not always realistic.

有很多在美国制造的产品，但其中包含了外国零部件。

There's a lot of stuff that you can buy that's made in America that has foreign components.

这给这里的制造商带来了困扰，因为他们现在必须为零部件支付更多费用。

And, you know, it it hurts manufacturers here because now they have to pay more for their components.

购买美国制造的产品，并不总是一个可行的替代方案。

Buy America, it it's not always always the the alternative.

另一个问题是，如果这些零部件的制造重新回到美国，建立工厂并让它们投入运营以在美国本地采购，将需要一些时间。

And the other the other thing is if, you know, the manufacturing does come back to United States for these component parts, it's gonna take some time to build the plants and and get things operational in order to source them here in The US.

作为亲身观察关税如何影响企业运营的人，也包括你自己的工作，你能在未来几个月或一年内做多少规划？还是说现在只能一天一天地应对？

You know, as somebody who has an intimate look on the ground of how tariffs are impacting businesses, also your own work, how much planning can you do for the next few months or the year ahead, or is it just more of a day by day in the moment kind of work workplace right now?

通常来说，我们只能应对当下的情况。

Well, it tends to be just an in the moment type thing.

当我们看到加拿大和墨西哥的关税时，情况真的很难规划——它们又回来了。

It's really it's really hard to plan when as we as we saw with the the tariffs with Canada and Mexico, they're on again.

然后又取消了。

They're off again.

它们又回来了。

They're on again.

它们又取消了。

They're off again.

有时候你真的不知道每天会发生什么。

You don't know what's gonna happen from day to day sometimes.

还有报复性关税，我们甚至不知道它们会是什么样子。

And plus the retaliatory tariffs, we don't even know what those are going to be.

你今天有一整天的工作要忙吗？

Do you have a long day ahead of you?

你现在的日常工作是什么样的？

What are your workdays like right now?

我的工作就是回答很多问题。

My workdays are answering a lot of questions.

你知道，现在有很多不满的进口商，我得向每个人解释一切，有些人因为原本要进口的东西还在运输途中而不太高兴。

You know, a lot of upset importers right now kind of, you know, explaining everything to everyone, having people that aren't too happy because they had something on the water in order to import it.

这比他们预期的贵了25%。

It's cost 25% more than they were expecting.

人们试着向我解释，他们已经六个月前就采购了这些货物。

And people try and explain to me that, you know, they've had this purchased for six months.

为什么现在他们得付这笔钱？

Why do they have to pay this now?

我真的没法给他们一个满意的答复，因为很遗憾，我只是个传话的。

And I really don't have a good answer for them because I'm I'm just the messenger, unfortunately.

格雷琴·布洛是宾夕法尼亚州埃里市物流加公司的一名报关经理。

Gretchen Blow is a customs broker manager at Logistics Plus in Erie, Pennsylvania.

格雷琴，非常感谢你再次做客我们的节目。

Gretchen, thanks so much for coming back on the show.

谢谢。

Thank you.

正如我们刚才谈到的，由于关税，汽车价格很可能进一步上涨，而这一情况发生在汽车价格持续上涨的大背景下。

As we just talked about, cars are likely to get more expensive because of tariffs, and this is against the backdrop of the trend of cars getting more expensive.

因为最近，汽车行业一直在逐步淘汰一些价格最低的车型。

Because recently, the auto industry has been phasing out some of its lowest priced vehicles.

三菱已于去年12月停止生产Mirage车型，预计到今年夏天就会从经销商库存中消失。

Mitsubishi ended production of the Mirage in December, so it'll likely be gone from dealer lots by this summer.

据报道，日产计划在今年之后停产Versa车型。

And Nissan reportedly plans to discontinue the Versa after this year.

根据《汽车与驾驶员》杂志的数据，这两款车是目前仅存的两款起售价低于2万美元的新车。

These are the last two new car models with starting prices under $20,000 according to Car and Driver.

《市场》节目的亨利·埃普报道了这款正在消失的小型车。

Marketplace's Henry Ep reports on the disappearing subcompact.

2024款三菱Mirage没有任何花哨的配置。

There's nothing fancy about the 2024 Mitsubishi Mirage.

它是一款可选掀背版或轿车版的小型车。

It's a small car available as a hatchback or a sedan.

蒂姆·贝达德在佛蒙特州伯灵顿附近他经营的三菱经销商展厅里，向我展示了黑色的轿车版本。

Tim Bedard shows me the sedan version in black at the Mitsubishi dealership he owns near Burlington, Vermont.

它配有电动门锁、电动车窗、定速巡航、可调方向盘和空调。

It has the power locks, the windows, cruise control, tilt steering wheel, air conditioning.

你知道，它的配置足够舒适。

You know, it has enough amenities to make it comfortable.

但无法回避的是，车内的空间确实非常有限。

But there's no getting around the fact that there's just not a lot of room inside.

尽管车身小巧，贝达德表示，这恰恰是它的主要卖点。

Though its small size, Bedard says, contributes to its real selling points.

这款车的亮点在于价格、保修和燃油效率。

The beauty of the car is price tag, warranty, fuel efficiency.

18,000美元，十年保修，每加仑39英里，比任何非混合动力车都更省油。

$18,000, ten year warranty, 39 miles per gallon, better than any car that isn't a hybrid.

根据凯利蓝皮书的数据，这个标价比目前新车的平均价格低了3万美元。

And that sticker price, $30,000 less than the average new car right now according to Kelley Blue Book.

但阿尔德表示，他销售的新车中约有三分之一是米拉格，尽管它们不太可能吸引太多目光。

But Ard says it makes sense that about a third of the new vehicles he sells are Mirages, though they're not likely to turn many heads.

没人会说，哇，真棒。

No one's like, oh, wow.

你有一辆米拉奇？

You have a Mirage?

哇。

Wow.

酷。

Cool.

来自多伦多的克莱顿·西姆斯几年前买了一辆2021款米拉奇。

Clayton Seams of Toronto bought a 2021 Mirage a couple years ago.

他是加拿大汽车媒体Driving.ca的编辑，当时选车时有一些严格的标准。

He's an editor with the Canadian automotive publication driving.ca, and he had some strict criteria when he was shopping for his own car.

我手头有15000美元现金。

I had $15,000 cash.

我想买一辆不用贷款或租赁就能付清的车。

I want a car I could buy without a car loan or a lease.

安迪想要一辆在城市里容易驾驶和停车的车。

Andy wanted something that was easy to drive and park in the city.

Mirage正好符合要求，尽管它有一些局限性

The Mirage fit the bill, and despite its limitations

在高速行驶时噪音很大，而且音响系统说实话

It's very noisy at highway speed, and the stereo is honestly

并不怎么样。

not very good.

但他其实非常喜欢它。

He actually really likes it.

感觉就像在开一辆九十年代的车。

It just felt like driving a car from the nineties.

那是过去的事了。

That was back.

而且它很简单。

And it was simple.

它配备手动变速箱。

It had a manual transmission.

它那种极简的方式反而有种魅力。

It was charming in a way of how basic it was.

但埃德蒙兹洞察部门负责人杰西卡·考尔德威尔表示，如今大多数购车者并不追求简单。

But basic is not what most car buyers are looking for these days, says Jessica Caldwell, head of insights at Edmunds.

我们更喜欢SUV、皮卡，以及载物空间更大的车型。

We like SUVs, trucks, vehicles with just more cargo capacity.

所以即使尺寸偏小，它仍然是SUV的造型，而不是带后备箱的轿车造型。

So even if it is a bit on the smaller side, it still is more of an SUV format rather than a sedan format with a trunk.

她说，多年来，大型车辆的销量一直在上升，而经济实惠的小型轿车则不然。

For years now, she says sales of larger vehicles have been climbing, affordable, smaller cars on the other hand.

我们看到，尽管许多美国人目前正面临经济困难，但对这类车型的需求却在消失。

We're just seeing the demand for these vehicles, go away despite the fact that a lot of Americans are dealing with financial difficulties right now.

考尔德威尔表示，汽车制造商已回应这种需求下降，从产品线中取消了小型车型。

Caldwell says automakers have responded to that declining demand by dropping smaller vehicles from their lineups.

福特Fiesta、丰田Yaris、本田Fit，全都停产了。

The Ford Fiesta, Toyota Yaris, Honda Fit, all gone.

但这种变化不仅仅是因为消费者偏好。

But the change isn't just about consumer preferences.

更大的车型利润更高，因为制造一辆小型车的成本并不比制造一辆SUV低多少，CARFAX的主编帕特里克·奥尔森说。

Bigger vehicles are more profitable because making a subcompact isn't that much cheaper than making an SUV, says Patrick Olson, editor in chief at CARFAX.

一些新型SUV甚至使用了过去小型车的同一平台。

Some newer SUVs are even built on the same platforms as the old subcompacts.

例如，本田HR-V就是已停产的本田Fit的姊妹车型。

Honda's HR V, for example, is the sibling of that discontinued Honda Fit.

因此，用在铝或钢等材料和成本上只多花一点点，他们就能为这些车型标出更高的价格，因为市场对这类车的需求更大。

So for not a lot more cost and material in terms of aluminum or steel to build the car, they could put up higher price tag on it because there's more demand for that vehicle.

联邦燃油经济性法规也起到了作用。

Federal fuel economy regulations play a role too.

特朗普政府目前正在审查这些规定，但目前的规定要求小型车的燃油效率必须优于大型车。

The Trump administration is currently reviewing them, but right now, they require smaller vehicles to get better mileage than bigger ones.

奥尔森表示，这促使汽车制造商转向生产更大的车型。

Olson says that gives carmakers an incentive to go large.

更大的SUV和皮卡更容易达到这些标准，而最小的车辆则不然。

Bigger SUVs, bigger pickup trucks because it's easier to meet those standards than it is for the smallest of vehicles.

伯灵顿三菱经销商蒂姆·贝达德表示，汽车行业对更大车型的日益关注，已经让新车市场变得混乱。

The industry's increasing focus on larger vehicles has thrown the new car market out of whack, according to Burlington Mitsubishi owner Tim Bedard.

随着SUV和跨界车席卷市场，我们几乎忽略了大多数人的生活成本已经变得非常高昂，无法负担一辆平均3万美元的跨界SUV，消费者现在该怎么办？

With the influx of SUVs and crossovers that have taken over the market, we kinda lost sight that life was and has gotten very expensive for most people and can't afford an average crossover SUV of $30,000, what's the consumer do now?

至少到夏天之前，贝达德预计他的展厅还会继续有米拉格车型可供销售。

At least until the summer, Bedard expects to have Mirages available on his lot.

之后，对价格敏感的消费者最好的选择可能是二手车，但它们的价格比疫情前高出32%。

After that, a used vehicle might be the price conscious consumer's best option, but they're 32 percent more expensive than they were just before the pandemic.

我是亨利·阿普，来自《市场》节目。

I'm Henry App for Marketplace.

接下来

Coming up

我们现在看到的最大成本波动，正如你所想象的，是鸡蛋。

Biggest cost fluctuations we're looking at right now, as you can imagine, eggs.

鸡蛋无处不在，不仅出现在面包店和早餐店，连鸡尾酒酒吧里也有。

Eggs are everywhere, not just bakeries and breakfast joints, but cocktail bars too.

但首先，我们来看一下数据。

But first, let's do the numbers.

道琼斯工业平均指数下跌了11点，基本持平，收于41989点。

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 11 points, essentially flat, to close at forty one thousand nine eighty nine.

纳斯达克指数上涨了150点，涨幅0.9%，收于17449点；标普500指数上涨21点，涨幅0.4%，收于5633点。

The Nasdaq gained a 150 points, nine tenths percent, to finish at seventeen thousand four forty nine, and the S and P 500 found 21 points, four tenths percent, to end at fifty six thirty three.

据报道，美国司法部即将批准美国资本一公司以350亿美元收购发现金融公司。

The Department of Justice is reportedly close to approving Capital One's buying Discover for $35,000,000,000.

资本一金融公司下跌了0.6%。

Capital One Financial Corporation lost six tenths percent.

发现金融公司下跌了0.1%。

Discover Financial Corporation fell one tenth percent.

与此同时，抵押贷款公司Rocket本周宣布以94亿美元收购竞争对手Mr. Cooper集团。

Meanwhile, the mortgage company Rocket this week announced its acquisition of rival, mister Cooper Group, in a $9,400,000,000 deal.

Rocket的股价上涨了4.4%。

Rocket Rocket shares grew four and four tenths percent.

Mr.

Mr.

Cooper集团股价上涨了4.6%。

Cooper Group added four and six tenths percent.

债券价格上涨。

Bonds rose.

十年期国债收益率下跌至4.16%。

The yield on the ten year t note fell to 4.16.

您正在收听《市场》。

You're listening to marketplace.

这里是《市场》。

This is Marketplace.

我是克里斯滕·施瓦布。

I'm Kristen Schwab.

今年第一季度已正式结束。

The first business quarter of the year has officially closed.

随之而来的是大量关于401(k)、IRA和共同基金的季度对账单信封和邮件。

With that comes envelopes and emails of quarterly statements for four zero one k's, IRA's, and mutual funds.

但不幸的是，这些摘要中充满了负号，显示投资者在过去三个月里亏损了多少。

And unfortunately, those summaries will be full of minus signs showing how much investors lost over the last three months.

在这个节目中，我们经常谈论财富效应，尤其是在过去的几年里。

On this show, we often, especially over the last handful of years, we often talk about the wealth effect.

简单来说，当股票和房产等资产随时间升值时，人们即使只是账面上变富了，也会感觉更富有，从而更可能增加消费。

Basically, how when assets like stocks and homes go up in value over time, people feel richer even if it's just on paper and are likely to spend more because of it.

那么，当投资缩水时会发生什么？

So what happens when investments shrink?

Marketplace的米切尔·哈特曼为您报道。

Marketplaces Mitchell Hartman reports.

美国银行资产管理公司的罗布·海沃斯表示，股市之前一直表现良好，直到突然不再如此。

Things were going really well for the stock market until they weren't anymore, says Rob Hayworth at US Bank Asset Management.

二月份，标普500指数曾触及历史新高，但本季度结束时，今年迄今的收益已转为负值。

In the February, we had the S and P five hundred touching new all time highs, and we finished the quarter in negative territory for the year so far.

标普500指数下跌了4.5%。

S and P five hundred down four and a half percent.

纳斯达克指数下跌了10%。

Nasdaq down 10%.

全国人寿的经济学家凯西·布尚西克表示，这将产生心理影响。

Economist Kathy Busjancic at Nationwide says there'll be a psychological impact.

当你看到股价急剧下跌时，这就是负面财富效应。

When you see this sharp decline in equity prices, that's the negative wealth effect.

消费者开始减少支出。

Consumers start to pull back.

但关键是。

But here's the thing.

对许多美国人来说，他们大部分的财富都集中在房产上。

For a lot of Americans, the majority of their wealth is in their homes.

最新数据显示，房价仍在上涨。

Latest data continued to show appreciation in home prices.

因此，就财富效应而言，这种情况仍然存在。

So that, in terms of, like, a wealth effect, is still intact.

至于股市，CFRA研究公司的萨姆·斯托瓦尔表示，历史表明，像我们最近看到的那样，急剧下跌后迅速反弹的情况通常不会导致长期低迷。

And as for stocks, Sam Stovall at CFRA Research says history shows that a sharp decline followed by a quick rebound, like we've seen recently, doesn't usually lead to a prolonged downturn.

但他表示，大多数小额投资者可能并不了解这一点。

But he says most small investors probably don't know that.

他们最有可能让情绪成为投资组合的最大敌人。

They're the ones that are most likely to allow their emotions to become their portfolio's worst enemy.

目前尤其焦虑的一群人是55岁及以上的群体，他们在经济不确定性加剧的背景下，看到自己的退休账户缩水，惠顿商学院的奥利维亚·米切尔表示。

One group that's especially nervous right now, people 55 and up, seeing their retirement accounts decline in the midst of rising economic uncertainty, says Olivia Mitchell at the Wharton School.

许多理财顾问建议，只需淡定应对波动。

A lot of financial advisers advocate, just ride the bumps.

从长远来看，你会没事的。

You'll be alright in the long run.

米切尔七十多岁了，根本没听进去。

Mitchell is over 70 and not really listening.

我本人大约两周前就把美国股票全部清仓了。

I myself got basically completely out of US equities about two weeks ago.

至于近期股市亏损是否会转化为消费减少，美国银行的罗布·海沃斯表示，这种程度的下跌并不总会抑制零售销售。

As for whether recent losses on stocks will translate into less spending on stuff, Rob Hayworth at US Bank says declines of this magnitude don't always squelch retail sales.

我们看到的消费者支出最大驱动因素，其实是人们是否有工作，以及收入是否在增长？

The biggest driver we see for consumer spending is really do people have jobs, and are their incomes growing?

他补充说，这比股市下跌带来的负面财富效应更重要。

More, he says, than the negative wealth effect from a falling stock market.

我是米切尔·哈特曼，来自《市场》。

I'm Mitchell Hartman for Marketplace.

今天早上，我们得以一窥农民和牧场主对经济的感受。

We got a window this morning into how farmers and ranchers are feeling about the economy.

普渡大学的农民情绪指数在三月有所下滑。

Purdue University's farmer sentiment index slipped in March.

农民对未来前景的预期减弱，超过40%的人将贸易政策列为悲观情绪的主要原因。

Farmers have weaker expectations for the future with more than 40% of them citing trade policy as the top driver of pessimism.

对农业出口市场的五年预期也降至调查历史最低点。

And five year expectations for ag export markets hit an all time survey low.

市场平台的萨凡纳·彼得斯为您带来农业前景黯淡的更多详情。

Marketplaces Savannah Peters has more on agriculture's cloudy outlook.

研究公司Oppenheimer的管理总监克里斯滕·欧文表示，农民习惯于应对不确定性。

Farmers are used to dealing with the unknown, says Kristen Owen, managing director with the research firm Oppenheimer.

我们通常认为不确定性来自天气和病虫害。

We usually think about uncertainty coming from weather, coming from pests.

我们通常认为联邦政策能够保护农业经济免受这些混乱因素的影响。

And we usually think of federal policy as insulating the farm economy from those chaotic forces.

但目前，它反而雪上加霜。

But right now, it's piling on.

欧文表示，原本就在艰难的农产品价格环境中为保本而焦虑的农民，现在有了更值得担忧的事情。

Owen says farmers who were already stressed about breaking even in a tough commodity price environment now have bigger things to worry about.

我们该把粮食和农产品销往全球哪些地方？

Where do we send grain, and where do we send agricultural products globally?

如果特朗普政府实施关税的国家采取对等关税措施，美国玉米、大豆及其他农产品出口的需求可能会下降。

If countries targeted by Trump administration tariffs respond with tariffs of their own, demand could fall for American corn and soybeans and other ag exports.

负责这项调查的迈克尔·兰格迈尔表示，农民情绪在三月没有更低，这有点出人意料。

Michael Langemeier, who runs the produce survey, says it's sort of surprising farmer sentiment wasn't lower in March.

许多受访者认为，是的，看起来我们确实要面临关税了。

A lot of the respondents are thinking that, yes, it looks like we're gonna have tariffs.

它们会对农民收入造成负面影响，但他们期待某种补偿。

They're gonna have a negative impact on farm income, but they're expecting some compensation.

比如上一届特朗普政府在贸易战期间向农民支付的数十亿美元联邦援助。

Compensation like the billions in federal relief paid to farmers during the last Trump administration trade war.

这项调查的受访者中有三分之二预计会得到类似的补偿。

Two thirds of respondents to the produce survey are expecting something similar.

乔什·加克尔是美国大豆协会的成员。

Josh Gackle is with the American Soybean Association.

农民们更希望有一个开放、公平、自由的市场，可以销售我们的产品。

Farmers would much, much rather have an open and fair and free market that we can sell our products to.

加克尔在北达科他州库鲁姆种植大豆、玉米和大麦，他说当地的情绪非常紧张。

Gackle farms soybeans, corn, and barley in Coolum, North Dakota, where he says the mood is pretty jittery.

如果你去一个

If you go to a

当地咖啡馆，坐下来和一群邻居聊天，最先谈起的话题就是今天大豆的价格是多少？

local cafe and you sit down at a table with a group of neighbors, the first thing that comes up in the conversation is what is the price of soybeans today?

玉米的价格是多少？

What's the price of corn?

小麦的价格是多少？

What's the price of wheat?

在他的小镇上，加克尔说每个人的生计都与不断变化的贸易政策息息相关。

In his small town, Gackle says everyone's livelihood is tied up in shifting trade policy.

我是萨凡纳·彼得斯，来自《市场》节目。

I'm Savannah Peters for Marketplace.

昨天，萨布里·本尼肖尔报道了酒吧和餐厅近来处境艰难的情况。

Yesterday, Sabri Benishore did a story on how things have been a bit tough lately for bars and restaurants.

消费有所下降，招聘也减少了。

Spending has been down, and so has hiring.

这是另一个服务行业的故事，主角是一家黑胶唱片酒吧的共同所有者。

Here's another service industry story, this time from the co owner of a Vinyl listening bar.

这是我们系列节目《我的经济》的最新一期。

It's the latest installment of our series, My Economy.

我叫布莱恩·泰德雷卡斯，是俄亥俄州克利夫兰市‘坏药’酒吧的老板之一。

My name is Brian Tederakis, and I am one of the owners of Bad Medicine in Cleveland, Ohio.

我们自称是黑胶唱片酒吧或高保真酒吧，完全不使用任何流媒体服务。

We call ourselves a listing bar or a hi fi bar, so we don't do any streaming whatsoever.

没有Spotify，也没有任何在线音乐。

No Spotify, no title.

所有音乐都通过黑胶唱片和复古高保真系统播放。

Everything's played through vinyl records on a vintage hi fi system.

很多朋友和家人第一次来的时候，通常都不会空手而来。

A lot of my friends and family when they come in the first time, they're usually not empty handed.

我刚从一位很久没见的朋友那里得到了几张很棒的黑胶唱片。

So I just got some cool records from a friend I haven't seen in a while.

上周末，他第一次来店里，带了爱丽丝·科尔特兰的唱片。

Over the weekend, he stopped by for the first time and brought Alice Coltrane.

我在Bad Medicine兼职工作。

I work at Bad Medicine, I would say part time.

我每天都会不停地想着它。

I think about it all day, every day.

我平时会发邮件、做些其他事情，但我有一份全职工作，用来支付我的薪水，直到酒吧能负担得起为止。

I'm shooting emails and working on things on the side, but I do have a full time day job that pays my salary until the bar can do that.

目前我们有四位前厅员工（不包括我自己），还有两位后厨员工。

We have four front of the house employees currently, not including myself, and we have two back of the house employees.

其中一个是主厨合伙人，另一个是兼职线灶厨师。

One of them is a chef partner and the other one is a a part time line cook.

员工薪酬一直是我们在讨论的问题，我们要确保薪酬合理。

Compensating staff is always something that we talk about and, you know, make sure that it's appropriate.

我们所在的州允许使用小费税收抵免，可以支付低于最低工资的薪酬，但我们支付的工资远高于此，实际上高出三到五倍。

We're one of the states where you have a tip tax credit where you can pay below minimum wage, but we pay well and above that, three to five times more as a matter of fact.

目前我们最关注的成本波动，你可能猜到了，就是鸡蛋。

The biggest cost fluctuations we're looking at right now, as you can imagine, eggs.

蛋清鸡尾酒很受欢迎，人们经常点，但一个蛋清现在要一美元左右，这就有点难办了。

So egg white cocktails are very much a thing people request them all the time, but, you know, an egg white costs about a dollar now, so it gets a little bit difficult.

我们使用一种素食替代品，叫鹰嘴豆水。

We use like the vegan version called Aquafaba.

就是鹰嘴豆的水。

It's chickpea water.

它的味道并不完全一样。

It doesn't have the same taste to it.

质地非常相似，而且在不提高价格或收取任何附加费方面，它一直非常可靠。

The texture is pretty similar, but as far as not having to raise prices or charge anyone a surcharge or anything like that, it's been been pretty dependable.

酒吧最初几个月是亏损的，但主要是因为我们当时在学习经营环境，花了很多钱。

The bar has been negative the first couple months, but it was predominantly because we were doing so much spending as we're, you know, learning the space.

过去两个月，我们每月末都不再亏损了，所以我们现在期待更好的前景。

And the past two months, we have not been in the negative at the end of the month, so we're hoping for greener pastures now.

经营酒吧很有压力，但同时也非常有成就感。

It's stressful owning a bar, but it's also very gratifying.

我的本职工作没什么创意空间，所以我喜欢去那里，发散鸡尾酒创意。

My day job, I don't get to be very creative, so I love to go in there, bounce cocktail ideas.

这是我表达创意的方式。

That's my creative outlet.

这是我能够去展现自我工作的场所。

That's my place that I get to go and express my work.

这是我用丙烯颜料创作的地方。

It's my acrylics.

那就是，你知道的，凡·高颜料，我把威士忌和糖混在一起。

That's, you know, that's Van Gogh paints, I mix whiskey and sugar together.

布莱恩·特达里斯，俄亥俄州克利夫兰‘坏药’酒吧的联合老板。

Brian Tedarakis, co owner of Bad Medicine in Cleveland, Ohio.

本系列的成功离不开您的支持。

This series only works with your help.

请访问 marketplace.org/myeconomy，告诉我们您的经济状况。

Tell us about your economy at marketplace.org/myeconomy.

最后再提一句，关于汽车的另一件事，我在《底特律自由报》上看到的。

This final note on the way out, another note about cars, saw this in the Detroit Free Press.

本月的汽车销量数据今天公布了。

Monthly auto sales came out today.

福特汽车公司的销量比去年同期下降了略多于百分之一。

At Ford Motor Company, sales were down a bit more than a percent compared to the same quarter last year.

但这并不是最有趣的部分，因为这个数字包含了对汽车租赁公司等的销售。

That's not really the interesting part here because that number includes sales to car rental companies and the like.

有趣的是，上个季度的零售销售额增长了5%。

The interesting part is retail sales were up 5% last quarter.

分析师将这一增长归因于消费者试图在明天的关税生效前提前购买。

Analysts attribute the spike to consumers trying to get ahead of tomorrow's tariffs.

福特Maverick在三月份创下了有史以来最高的月销量纪录。

The Ford Maverick saw an all time monthly sales record in March.

Maverick是在墨西哥制造和组装的。

The Maverick is built and assembled in Mexico.

我们的数字和点播团队包括凯莉·巴伯、乔丹·曼吉、迪伦·米蒂宁、珍妮特·温、奥尔加·奥克曼、艾伦·罗尔夫斯、爱德华·西尔弗、弗吉尼亚·K·史密斯和托尼·瓦格纳。

Our digital and on demand team includes Carrie Barber, Jordan Manji, Dylan Mietinen, Janet Wynn, Olga Oxman, Ellen Rolfes, Edward Silver, Virginia k Smith, and Tony Wagner.

弗朗西斯卡·莱维是数字与点播业务的执行总监，我是克里斯汀·施瓦布。

Francesca Levy is the executive director of digital and on demand, and I'm Kristen Schwab.

我们明天还会在这里回来。

We'll be back here tomorrow.

这里是APM。

This is APM.

您可以收听《市场》节目，了解各行各业的领袖和普通人如何参与并影响经济。

You can turn to Marketplace to hear from powerful leaders and everyday people about the economy and their roles in it.

现在，我们希望也能得到您的支持。

And now we hope we can turn to you.

在规划未来时，《市场》正面临真实的威胁与挑战。

Marketplace is facing real threats and challenges as we plan for the future.

作为公共媒体节目，您的捐赠是我们预算中至关重要的部分。

As a public media program, donations from you are a critical part of our budget.

因此，现在您可以采取的一项行动，将产生深远的影响。

So here's one action you can take right now that's gonna have a long lasting impact.

设立每月定期捐赠，支持我们的工作。

Start a monthly donation to support our work.

每月5美元是个不错的起点。

$5 a month is a great place to start.

请前往 marketplace.org/donate 捐赠，谢谢。

Head to marketplace.org/donate, and thanks.