这些行业正面临价格上涨的压力

正因为你们永远都不会嫌关税新闻太多，今天节目就来聊聊这个话题。

Just because you never can have enough tariff news, that's what's on the show today.

好的。

Okay.

这不对。

That's not true.

你们是可以嫌关税新闻太多的。

You can have enough tariff news.

来自美国公共媒体，这里是《市场》节目。

From American Public Media, this is Marketplace.

在洛杉矶，我是莱尔·里扎尔。

In Los Angeles, I'm Kyle Rizal.

今天是星期四。

It is Thursday.

今天是3月20日，一如既往感谢大家的陪伴，各位。

Today, this one is the March 20, good as it always is to have you along, everybody.

特朗普总统的关税正在影响经济中的许多方面，过去几周我们已经多次讨论过这些影响。

President Trump's tariffs are affecting a lot of things in this economy, and we have talked about those things a lot the past couple of weeks.

但美国经济发生的事情绝对不可能只停留在美国国内。

But what happens in the American economy most definitely does not stay in the American economy.

要么已经实施，要么即将出台报复性关税。

There are retaliatory tariffs either already in place or coming soon.

全球增长遭受的打击几乎必然会发生，同时还可能带来一些所谓的非预期后果——尽管这些后果或许从未被认真考虑过。

There are the hits to global growth that are almost certainly coming, and there are what might be termed unintended, although perhaps unthought about works as well, consequences.

总统表示，对进口商品征税——因为关税本质上是对美国消费者的征税——

The president says taxing imports, because again, tariffs are taxes on American consumers.

总统认为这将促进国内生产。

The president says that will boost domestic production.

美国消费者将购买更多美国制造的商品，而美国制造商也将向海外消费者卖出更多产品，这听起来不错，但别忘了关税会对美元价值造成什么影响。

American consumers will then buy more American made goods, and American manufacturers will then sell more to consumers overseas, which fine until one remembers what tariffs are going to do to the value of the dollar.

《市场》节目的贾斯汀·何为我们开启今天的报道。

Marketplace's Justin Ho gets us going.

问题就在这里。

Here's the issue.

如果你想从其他国家购买商品并进口，通常需要用该国的货币来购买。

If you want to buy goods from another country and import them, you typically have to buy them in that foreign country's currency.

所以如果我们想从荷兰买奶酪，就需要用欧元来买，因为那里是以欧元计价的。

So if we want to buy, some cheese from The Netherlands, we need some euros to buy the cheese with because that's where they sell it in.

进步政策研究所的埃德·格雷瑟表示，如果美国政府对这种奶酪征收关税，它的价格就会上涨。

Ed Gresser at the Progressive Policy Institute says if the US government slaps a tariff on that cheese, it becomes more expensive.

消费者会减少购买。

Consumers buy less of it.

杂货店的进货量也会减少，这意味着

Grocery stores stock less, which means

对欧元的需求相对于美元下降了。

The demand for euros has gone down relative to the dollar.

对欧元需求的减少会使其相对于其他货币的价值下跌。

And lower demand for euros pushes down the currency's value relative to others.

这将导致美元走强。

That would then lead to a stronger dollar.

凯瑟琳·多明格斯是密歇根大学的经济学教授。

Catherine Dominguez is an economics professor at the University of Michigan.

到目前为止，今年美元的价值一直在下降。

So far this year, the dollar's value has been ticking down.

多明格斯表示，这在很大程度上是因为进口商一直在抢在总统加征关税之前大量进口商品。

Dominguez says that's in large part because importers have been trying to bring in extra goods ahead of the president's tariffs.

因此，我们实际上购买了更多的进口商品，因而需要更多的外币，从而推高了外币相对于美元的价值。

So we've actually been buying more imports, therefore, needing more foreign currency, therefore, driving up the value of foreign currency relative to the dollar.

但一旦新关税开始对进口产生影响，美元的价值很可能再次走强，这将使美国出口商品对外国买家来说更昂贵。

But once new tariffs start taking a bite out of imports, the dollar's value is likely to strengthen again, and that will make American exports more expensive for foreign buyers.

这意味着现在以美元计价的美国商品相对于以其他货币计价的商品将失去竞争力。

Meaning that now US goods denominated in dollars would be less competitive relative to goods denominated in other currencies.

那时，美国公司可能会把注意力转向向国内消费者销售更多商品，甚至可能开设新工厂并创造新的就业机会。

That's when American companies are likely to turn their attention to selling more goods to domestic consumers, maybe even open up new factories and create new jobs.

但哈佛大学经济学教授亚历·伊茨霍基指出，这里有一个重大的权衡需要考虑。

But there's a big trade off to keep in mind, says Aleg Itzhoki, an economics professor at Harvard.

一些工作岗位将会流失，因为美元升值会使出口变得无利可图。

Some jobs would be lost because it would be unprofitable to export because of the stronger value of the dollar.

与此同时，其他跟随美国步伐对美国商品加征关税的国家，也会转向内需。

Meanwhile, other countries that follow The US's lead and slap tariffs on American goods will end up turning inwards too.

加拿大的工厂将转而服务加拿大消费者，而不是向美国出口。

The Canadian factories will turn to service the Canadian consumers instead of exporting to The United States.

但由于美元走强，美国向全球出口的商品总量将会减少。

But US will be able to export less goods all around the world because of the stronger dollar.

伊茨霍基表示，我们这里讨论的是一个效率更低的全球经济。

Itzhoki says what we're talking about here is a less efficient global economy.

因为我们原本处于一种高效的状态：在加拿大生产以供应美国市场是最优选择。

Because we started an equilibrium when it was efficient to produce in Canada for the American market.

结果就是效率下降，而最终消费者为此付出了代价。

You lose efficiency as a result, and that's the tax that the consumers are paying at the end of the day.

一种导致价格上涨和经济增长停滞的税。

A tax that causes prices to rise and economic growth to stall.

我是Justin Howe，来自Marketplace。

I'm Justin Howe for Marketplace.

本周四，华尔街表现不佳。

Wall Street on this Thursday, not a winner.

不算差，但也不算好。

Not bad, but not a winner.

等我们核算完数据后，会带来详细内容。

We'll have the details when we do the numbers.

今天我们从美国全国房地产经纪人协会获得了最新的现有房屋销售数据，二月份增长了4.2%。

We got the latest data on existing home sales from the National Association of Realtors today, up 4.2% in February.

这是月度数据，听起来不错，但你听到一月份的数据相比十二月下降了4.7%时，就会觉得没那么乐观了。

That's month to month, which sounds pretty good until you hear that January's data was down 4.7% from December.

房地产数据确实会有所波动。

Now housing data can and does bounce around.

天气、抵押贷款利率，只是数据中的正常波动。

Weather, mortgage rates, just plain noise in the data.

而现在，随着春季购房季的到来，市场看起来比今年早些时候略显乐观。

And right now, heading into the spring home buying season, the market does look slightly rosier than it did earlier this year.

但住房市场实际上也会因地区不同而有巨大差异。

But housing markets can also vary and vary a lot actually depending on where you are looking.

Marketplace 的 Mitchell Hartman。

Marketplaces Mitchell Hartman.

这个怎么样？

How's that one?

最近，我陆续联系了全国各地的经纪人和房地产中介，发现我听到的一些说法几乎可以在各地原封不动地复制粘贴。

I've been doing a kind of round robin of calls to brokers and realtors across the country recently, and some of what I heard could have been copied and pasted from one place to another.

我们一直面临房源短缺，因此对卖家来说是好市场，对买家来说则很困难。

We've had a shortage of inventory, so it's a good market for sellers, difficult market for buyers.

房源更少，价格上升，买家之间争相抢购房产。

Less inventory, prices going up, buyers competing for properties.

我们看到活动激增，库存极其有限，且有多重出价。

We're seeing a frenzy of activity, very limited inventory, and multiple offers.

这是来自芝加哥凯尔威廉姆斯公司的迈克·弗兰克，锡拉丘兹冷泉银行的黛比·考尔菲尔斯，以及俄勒冈州波特兰市约翰·L·斯科特公司的以色列·希尔。

That's Mike Frank at Keller Williams in Chicago, Debbie Caulfels with Coldwell Banker in Syracuse, and Israel Hill at John l Scott in Portland, Oregon.

考尔菲尔斯指出，并非所有地方都出现如此低的库存。

Caulfels points out we're not seeing such low inventory everywhere.

房地产永远是地方性的。

Real estate's always local.

我们总是这么说。

We always say that.

全国其他地区，比如佛罗里达，你知道，公寓市场有很多房源，原因多种多样，比如保险和公寓费用。

Other parts of the country, Florida is an example, you know, condo market, a lot of listings there for a variety of reasons, insurance and condo fees.

刚才我们听说波特兰的房地产活动非常火爆，但考尔菲尔斯表示，锡拉丘兹地区的房源数量今年迄今已下降约10%。

Now we just heard that Portland's a frenzy of housing activity, but Kaufeld says in the Syracuse area, listings are slowing, down about 10% year to date.

北卡罗来纳州夏洛特的房地产经纪人史蒂夫·斯科特也表示情况类似。

Similar story in Charlotte, North Carolina says realtor Steve Scott.

即使开发商推出了各种优惠，市场还是有点冷清。

It's a little slow even with all the incentives that the builders are putting out.

你知道，市场很冷清。

You know, it's slow.

与此同时，夏洛特正迎来一波新买家。

Meanwhile, Charlotte's got a wave of new buyers coming in.

我们这里有很多从北方搬来的退休人士，也有一些从南方回来的人，因为他们不喜欢佛罗里达。

We have a lot of retirement people moving here from the North and some return from the South because they didn't like Florida.

这让首次购房者难以竞争。

Making it hard for first time buyers to compete.

但往南去看看德克萨斯吧。

But head south to Texas.

我仍然能看到一些负担得起的房子，你知道的，30万美元左右，适合首次购房者。

I'm still seeing affordable houses, you know, 300 thousands for my first time homebuyers.

休斯顿 Compass 房地产的莫莉·亚博勒·斯蒂尔表示，郊区正在兴建大量面向首次购房者的新房。

Molly Yarborough Steel at Compass Real Estate in Houston says plenty of new starter homes are going up in the suburbs.

她说，竞争最激烈的房源是价格超过100万美元的房屋。

She says the fiercest competition is for homes over $1,000,000.

她看到的主要是

Where she's seeing

很多现金支付，这让我很惊讶，居然有这么多人手头有这么多现金。

A lot of cash offers, which is so amazing to me that this many this many people have this much cash.

但最近几周金融市场大幅下跌，部分流动现金可能开始减少。

But with financial markets down sharply in recent weeks, some of that ready cash may start to dry up.

我是米切尔·哈特曼，来自《市场》节目。

I'm Mitchell Hartman for Marketplace.

这其实不关我的事，但你今天效率高吗？

It's none of my business, really, but were you productive today?

你是否在预期的时间内，甚至更短的时间内完成了所有工作？

Did you get all your work done in the expected amount of time or ideally less time?

我问这个问题是因为，工人生产率——明确地说，是上升的工人生产率——是经济学家密切关注的关键指标之一。

I ask because worker productivity, rising worker productivity to be clear, is one of those key metrics that economists watch pretty closely.

最基本的形式是每小时工作生产的商品数量。

At its most basic, the formula is widgets produced per hour worked.

工人生产率越高，在相同时间内生产的商品就越多。

The more worker productivity there is, the more widgets that get made in the same amount of time.

这正是推动经济增长以及顺理成章的工资上涨的原因。

That's what leads to economic growth and not coincidentally rising wages.

美国的生产率近年来持续上升，去年增长了2.7%，远高于平均水平。

Productivity in The United States has been on the upswing, up 2.7% last year, well above average.

历史上，生活水平的重大提升——作为生产率的替代指标——大多是由新技术推动的。

Historically, most of the big jumps in living standards, which is a proxy for productivity, have been driven by new technologies.

蒸汽机的出现、电力的普及，当然还有计算机的广泛应用。

The introduction of the steam engine, widespread electrification, computers too, of course.

许多经济学家希望，我们目前看到的生产率提升可能是由人工智能驱动的又一轮长期增长的开端。

And a lot of economists are hoping that the boost in productivity we're seeing right now might be the start of another long surge driven by AI.

Marketplace的梅根·麦卡蒂·卡里诺对此进行了调查。

Marketplaces Megan McCarty Carino took a look at that.

几年前，两位经济学家就本十年内生产力将增长多少打了一个友好的赌。

Two economists made a friendly bet a few years ago about how much productivity will grow this decade.

埃里克·布林约尔松和罗伯特·戈登在预测网站Long Bets上登记了这个赌注，赌注金额为400美元。

Eric Brynjolfsson and Robert Gordon registered the wager on the prediction website long bets, and the stakes are $400.

但我认为这更像是一场声誉上的赌注。

But I think it's more of a reputational bet.

这是布林约尔松的说法。

That's Brynjolfsson.

他是斯坦福大学的教授，负责数字经济发展实验室，对生产力持乐观态度。

He's a professor at Stanford where he directs the Digital Economy Lab, and he's bullish on productivity.

他关于开始使用AI大语言模型的客户服务代理的研究显示，他们的生产力提高了多达34%。

His own research on customer service agents who started using an AI large language model showed their productivity improved as much as 34%.

其他关于软件开发、商业咨询、写作和销售的最新研究也显示了类似的结果。

And other recent studies on software development, business consulting, writing, and sales showed similar results.

这是我见过的最大增幅。

These are the biggest gains I've ever seen.

我的意思是，短短几个月内就看到两位数的增长，这几乎是前所未有的。

I mean, to see, like, double digit gains just within a few months is almost unheard of.

在另一方，罗伯特·戈登，西北大学教授，著有《美国增长的兴衰》。

In the other corner, Robert Gordon, professor at Northwestern and author of the rise and fall of American growth.

这不会是一场革命。

It's not gonna be a revolution.

它不会彻底改变人性。

It's not gonna blow out human nature.

我认为这些说法都被大大夸大了。

I think that's all greatly overblown.

他认为人工智能会提升生产力，但指出过去二十年尽管有从智能手机到应用程序经济等各种高科技创新，生产力增长却一直温和。

He believes AI will raise productivity but points to the last twenty years or so of modest gains despite high-tech innovations ranging from smartphones to the app economy.

这些成就与用卡车代替马匹、用飞机代替火车所带来的改变相比，真的微不足道。

Those things really are minor compared to the difference it made to have trucks instead of horses, to have airplanes instead of trains.

目前，布林约尔松暂时领先，但尚不清楚我们目前看到的生产力提升是否标志着持久的人工智能繁荣的开始。

For now, Brynjolfsson has pulled to the lead, though it's not clear yet if the bump productivity we're seeing is evidence of the start of a durable AI boom.

约瑟夫·布里格斯是高盛全球投资研究部的高级经济学家。

Joseph Briggs is a senior economist for Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.

如果我们从整个经济的角度来看，影响仍然显得微不足道。

If we look at an economy wide basis, the impacts still look quite negligible.

高盛预测，一旦生成式人工智能得到广泛应用，十年内可能将美国的生产率提高15%。

Goldman Sachs has forecast that once generative AI has been widely adopted, it could raise productivity in The US by 15% over ten years.

但布里格斯认为，人工智能要反映在生产率数据中还需要几年时间。

But Briggs thinks it will take a couple of years for AI to show up in productivity data.

你需要重新设计工作流程。

You need to restructure workflows.

你必须让员工能够熟练使用它，而这些都需要时间。

You have to have workers comfortable using it, and all of these things take time.

布里格斯表示，企业正在对该技术进行大量投资，尤其是在法律等行业。

Briggs says companies are making big investments in the technology, especially in industries like law.

安妮·达蒂什是硅谷律师事务所威尔逊·桑西尼的首席创新官，该事务所服务大量科技初创企业。

Annie Datish is the chief innovation officer for Silicon Valley law firm Wilson Sunsini, which works with a lot of tech startups.

该公司开发了一款AI工具，用于审查云服务协议。

The firm developed an AI tool to help review agreements for cloud services.

我们经常要谈判这些协议。

We'd be negotiating them a lot.

虽然量很大，但都是标准格式，这时自动化和AI就开始变得有意义了。

It would be high volume, but a standard form, and suddenly automation and AI start to make sense.

威尔逊·孙西尼公司使用基于自身最佳实践训练的AI来定制协议。

Wilson Sunsini uses AI trained on its own best practices to customize the agreements.

然后由人类律师进行审核并最终定稿。

Then a human lawyer reviews and finalizes them.

这项技术最终将帮助公司更快地服务更多客户，但目前还达不到这个程度。

The tech should eventually help the firm serve more clients faster, but it's not quite there yet.

想想你雇用新人的时候。

Well, think about when you hire a new person.

对吧？

Right?

一开始它们总会拖慢你的进度，但一旦训练好了，就能接手任务。

They're always gonna kind of slow you down at first, but then they get trained up, and then they can take over tasks.

目前，AI还比较新手。

Right now, the AI is still kinda green.

所以你仍然要像监督新人一样监控和指导它，这理论上会拖慢你的速度。

And so you're still monitoring it and supervising it like it's that new person, which will theoretically slow you down.

斯坦福大学的埃里克·布林约尔松表示，当一项强大的新技术在经济中普及时，你常常会看到这种模式。

It's a pattern you often see when a powerful new technology diffuses through the economy, says Stanford's Eric Brynjolfsson.

起初，看起来什么都没发生，直到突然间生产力开始飙升，形成他所说的J型曲线。

At first, it looks like nothing is happening until suddenly productivity takes off in what he calls a j shaped curve.

比如蒸汽机、电力、内燃机，当我们测量这些技术时，往往真的花了数十年时间。

With, you know, the steam engine, with electricity, with internal combustion engine, when we measured that, it often took literally decades.

电力真正实现全面回报花了大约三十年。

It took about thirty years for electricity to really have its full payoff.

他认为，AI会更快地带来生产力提升，因为它不需要专门的硬件或技能就能使用。

He expects AI to deliver productivity benefits much faster since it doesn't require specialized hardware or skills to use.

他有到2029年为止的时间来赢得这场赌注。

He's got until 2029 to win the bet.

AI带来的生产率激增是否会对大多数工人有利，他对此并不确定。

Whether a productivity boom from AI will be a win for most workers, That he's not so sure about.

我是梅根·麦卡蒂·卡里诺，来自《市场》。

I'm Megan McCarty Carino for Marketplace.

曾经有一段时间，阿拉斯加生产的原油比美国其他任何州都多。

There was a time when Alaska produced more crude oil than any other state in the union.

但那是在1988年。

That time, though, was 1988.

自那以后的几十年里，这个第四十九州的石油产量下降了约75%。

And in the decades since, oil production in the forty ninth state has dropped by around 75%.

但本周能源信息署发布了一份报告，称阿拉斯加的石油产量明年将增长，这可能是几十年来最大的产量增幅。

But there is a report out this week from the Energy Information Administration that says Alaskan oil output's going to grow next year, the biggest production increase perhaps in decades.

丹尼尔·阿克曼将为您详细介绍阿拉斯加原油的兴衰以及可能的再度崛起。

Daniel Ackerman has more on the rise and fall and maybe the rise again of Alaskan crude.

阿拉斯加的石油产量在20世纪70年代全球能源价格冲击后开始快速增长。

Oil production in Alaska first took off in the nineteen seventies after a series of global energy price shocks.

杰夫·克拉洛维奇是市场情报公司Argus Media的员工。

Jeff Kralowicz is with the market intelligence firm Argus Media.

他说，这一增长得益于横贯阿拉斯加管道的建设。

He says that growth was helped along by the construction of the Trans Alaska Pipeline.

这条管道能够将阿拉斯加北部的大量原油运送到南部的瓦尔迪兹港进行销售。

Which was able to take all of this crude from the Northern part of Alaska to the Port Of Valdes in the southern part of the state and sell it.

不过，怀俄明大学的经济学家查尔斯·梅森表示，如今许多北部油田在业内被称为‘成熟油田’。

Now though, a lot of those northern oil fields are what they call in the business mature, says Charles Mason, an economist at the University of Wyoming.

早期你会获得一定量的产量，但随后产量往往会逐渐下降。

So you get a certain amount of production early on, and then it tends to taper off.

而要阻止这种下降的唯一方法就是钻更多的井。

And the only way you arrest that is by having more wells drilled.

梅森表示，近年来阿拉斯加的钻井活动有所减少，部分原因是环保措施，但也因为北极苔原并非理想的商业开发之地，大西洋理事会的艾伦·沃尔德说道。

Mason says that's been happening less lately in Alaska in part because of conservation measures, but also because the Arctic Tundra isn't an easy place to do business, says Ellen r Wald of the Atlantic Council.

如果你需要修建管道，只能在冬季将管道运送到所需地点，因为必须使用冰路。

If you're gonna need to build pipelines, you can only transport those pipelines to where you need them to be during the winter because you have to use ice roads.

更便宜的水力压裂技术帮助其他一些州的产量超过了阿拉斯加，但阿拉斯加的两个新石油开发项目预计将提升产量。

Cheaper fracking has helped some other states surpass Alaska's output, but two new oil developments in Alaska are expected to boost production.

但远未达到峰值水平，沃德说。

Not to anywhere near peak levels, says Wald.

但我认为这很有意义，因为他们投入了所有的投资和基础设施。

But I do think that this is meaningful because they put in all of the investment and infrastructure.

这可能会使未来的扩展更容易。

Which could make future expansion easier.

来自阿格斯媒体的杰夫·克拉洛维奇表示，这些变化也可能影响到国内石油经济的其他领域。

Jeff Kralowicz of Argus Media says the changes could also be felt elsewhere in the domestic oil economy.

加利福尼亚州许多新建或改造的炼油厂都是为加工阿拉斯加原油而设计的。

A lot of the new refineries or the refinery modifications in California were designed to run Alaskan crude.

因为随着加州自身原油产量的下降，那里的炼油厂现在更依赖来自北极的石油。

Because as California's own production of crude has fallen, refineries there are now more reliant on oil from the Arctic.

我是丹尼尔·阿克曼，来自《市场》。

I'm Daniel Ackerman for Marketplace.

接下来。

Coming up.

趋势，本质上是一种用于广告和销售的结构。

A trend is, at its core, a structure for advertising and selling something.

如果你觉得趋势已经够快了，那来看看微趋势吧。

If you thought trends move fast, meet micro trends.

但首先，我们来看一下数据。

But first, let's do the numbers.

现在工业板块下跌了11点。

Now industrial's down 11 points.

我们就称之为持平，41953。

We'll call that flat forty one thousand nine five three.

纳斯达克下跌59点，约三分之一个百分点，报17691点。

The Nasdaq off 59 points, about a third of 1%, 17,691.

标普500指数下跌12点，约百分之零点二，报5662点。

The S and P five hundred down 12 points, about two tenths percent, fifty six and sixty two.

米切尔谈到了房地产。

Mitchell was talking about housing.

PulteGroup在全美45多个市场运营，股价上涨了百分之零点二。

PulteGroup, which operates in more than 45 markets around the country, rose two tenths percent.

MI Homes在中西部和南部地区建房，股价上涨了约百分之零点五。

MI Homes, which builds in the Midwest and South, gained about a half percent.

今天是春季的第一天，所以有些春季节股票。

Today is the first day of spring, so some vernal stocks.

1800Flowers，股票代码FLWS，今天下跌了百分之一点六。

One eight hundred Flowers, ticker symbol, FLWS, wilted one and six tenths percent today.

Sonoco，股票代码SUN，今天下跌了百分之零点一。

Sonoco traded as SUN, darkened one and one tenth percent today.

债券下跌。

Bonds down.

十年期国债收益率为4.24%。

Yield on the ten year T note, 4.24%.

您正在收听《市场》节目。

You're listening to marketplace.

这里是《市场》节目。

This is Marketplace.

我是凯·里兹达尔。

I'm Kai Rizdahl.

好的。

Alright.

我们来从学术角度聊聊通货膨胀，不是那种‘天啊，鸡蛋价格真高’的意思。

Let's talk about inflation here for a second in the academic sense, not the, oh, man, egg prices are really high sense.

通货膨胀是指经济中商品和服务价格在一段时间内普遍上涨。

Inflation is a broad based increase in the price of goods and services throughout the economy over time.

正如我们昨天告诉您的，鲍威尔主席和美联储的同事们正密切关注物价水平，因为目前已实施的特朗普关税，以及将于4月2日生效的新关税。

And as we told you yesterday, Chair Powell and the gang at the Fed are keeping a close, closer, we should say, eye on price levels given the Trump tariffs that are already in place and the ones that are coming on the April 2.

但并非所有关税都同等重要，也不是所有价格都会以相同方式做出反应。

But not all tariffs are created equal, and not all prices react the same way.

市场频道，萨布里·贝内肖尔为您带来更多信息。

Marketplaces, Sabri Benechor has more on that.

MFA公司是一家位于密苏里州哥伦比亚的农民合作社。

MFA Incorporated is a farmers' cooperative based in Columbia, Missouri.

它由四万名牧场主和农民共同拥有。

It's owned by 40,000 ranchers and farmers.

它销售大量化肥。

It sells a lot of fertilizer.

你知道，

You know, the

我们业务中最大的两个不确定因素是天气和政府。

two biggest wildcards in our business are weather and the government.

克里斯·德莫斯是植物营养品的高级总监，他说，最不可预测的因素始终是政府。

Chris Demoss is senior director of plant foods, and he says the least predictable one has always been the government.

原本这个月初，来自加拿大的钾肥将被征收关税，但这一措施已被推迟到4月2日。

Potash fertilizer from Canada was gonna get tariffs at the beginning of this month, but that was pushed back to April 2.

它们会产生影响。

They're gonna have an impact.

毫无疑问。

There's no doubt.

因为我们国内使用的80%的钾肥都来自加拿大。

Because 80 of what we use domestically comes from from Canada.

但无论影响有多大，都会被推迟。

But whatever that impact is, it's gonna be delayed.

因为已经有一批肥料在春季前就到位了。

Because there were a

春季已经运来了大量肥料。

lot of tons that were already in place for this spring.

所以，随着夏季的到来，再到秋季，我们可能会更清楚地了解这一切意味着什么。

And so, you know, we'll probably have a better understanding of what all this means as we get the summer period and then go into the fall.

对于其他产品，延迟会短得多。

For other products, the delay is gonna be much shorter.

奥默·沙里夫预测，从中国进口商品的20%关税将在四月开始出现在标签上。

20% tariffs on goods from China are gonna start showing up on stickers in April, predicts Omer Sharif.

他是通胀洞察部门的负责人。

He's head of inflation insights.

很多种类的

A lot of sort

家具和家居用品。

of furniture and household goods.

比如，你知道的，家用电器。

Things like, you know, household appliances.

家具尤其是一个大类。

Furniture in particular is a big one.

炊具和餐具。

Cookware, cutlery.

他说，我们71%的炊具和餐具是从中国进口的。

71% of our cookware and cutlery is imported from China, he says.

45%的鞋类也是如此。

45% of all footwear is.

这些商品的价格往往会转嫁给消费者。

And the prices for these goods tend to get handed on to consumers.

2018年洗衣机就是这种情况。

That's what happened with washing machines in 2018.

关税上涨了20%。

Tariffs went up 20%.

价格也上涨了18%。

Prices went up 18%.

安德森经济集团分析了未来几个月多层关税对汽车的影响。

Anderson Economic Group analyzed the impact of the multiple layers of tariffs on cars over the next few months.

帕特里克·安德森是首席执行官。

Patrick Anderson is CEO.

这些制造商在北美生产的典型车型，关税成本将增加4000至10000美元。

The typical model produced by these manufacturers in North America would see a tariff cost increase of between 4 and $10,000.

他的建议是现在就买下那辆车。

His advice is buy that car now.

来自加拿大的番茄和来自墨西哥的牛油果将在四月迅速涨价。

Tomatoes from Canada and avocados from Mexico would see jumps pretty quickly in April.

其他行业的影响不会太大。

Other industries would not see much effect.

比如石油的关税。

Tariffs on oil, for example.

加拿大最终会承担这个成本，因为我们这里供应量太大了。

Canada would end up eating that because, we have we have so much supply here.

建筑商对建筑材料感到担忧。

Builders are nervous over construction materials.

埃利亚·奥利瓦雷斯·罗森是标普全球评级公司新兴市场首席经济学家。

Elijah Olivares Rosen is chief economist for emerging markets at S and P Global Ratings.

钢铁和铝是一方面，此外从加拿大进口的一些商品，比如木材，对住房行业至关重要。

Steel and aluminum is one, and also some goods that are imported from Canada, such as lumber, are very important for housing.

因此，这可能对美国的通胀产生不成比例的影响。

So that could have a outsized impact on inflation in The US.

但目前，这一切仍主要是一场等待的游戏。

But for now, all of this is still mostly a waiting game.

在纽约，我是Marketplace的苏布里·贝尼肖尔。

In New York, I'm Subri Benishore for Marketplace.

如今生活节奏很快，如果你是一个年轻人，试图跟上社交媒体动态中的一切，那么节奏会更快。

Life today moves fast, and it moves even faster if you're a young person trying to keep up with everything that goes by you on your social media feed.

不仅仅是潮流，还有微潮流。

Not just trends, but micro trends.

比如，我可不是瞎说的，沿海祖母风和乡村小屋风。

Things like, and I am not making this up, coastal grandmother aesthetic and cottagecore.

虽然‘市场核心’这一风格尚未流行起来，但我们联系了《纽约时报》时尚版的凯莉·霍尔特曼，她前几天刚写过这方面的文章。

And while marketplace core has somehow not caught on yet, We've called Callie Holterman from the style desk at the New York Times who wrote about this the other day.

我们来聊聊吧。

We're gonna catch up.

Callie，欢迎来到节目。

Callie, welcome to the program.

很高兴你来参加。

Good to have you on.

谢谢你们邀请我。

Thanks for having me.

好的。

Alright.

时尚潮流我懂。

So trends I get in fashion.

对吧？

Right?

这东西一直都有。

That's, you know, been a thing forever.

微趋势，帮我解释一下。

Micro trends, help me out.

是的。

Yeah.

我真不想这么迟才告诉你微趋势这件事，当然，我确实拖得太久了。

I I hate to sort of come with the news of microtrends to you, which, of course, I'm slow to bring you.

没错。

That's right.

没错。

That's right.

你在微趋势这件事上本该更快一点的。

You you should have been faster on the microtrends thing.

总之。

Anyway.

但近年来，尤其是新冠疫情以来，出现了许多看似时尚趋势的现象。

But in recent years, especially sort of since COVID, there have been all of these things that seem kind of like fashion trends.

也许这是一种上衣，或者像猎豹图案这样的印花，甚至是一句简单的标语，比如‘黑帮妻子’风格。

Perhaps it's a type of top or a print like Cheetah print or even a little phrase like the mob wife aesthetic.

但我接触的年轻人们说，这些潮流往往在几个月甚至几周内就兴起又消退。

But, young people I talked to said they kind of rise and fall in a matter of of months or even weeks.

关于这一点，真正有趣——同时也是令人不安的——部分在于，这些被卷入其中的年轻孩子，他们大多是十几岁的青少年，其实很清楚正在发生什么。

The the really interesting part about it well, many parts about it, which were, by turn interesting and horrifying, is that the the younger kids, because these are like teenagers ish, right, who are, you know, getting absorbed by all this, they know what's happening.

完全正确。

Totally.

在过去几个月里，我花了很多时间与青少年和二十多岁的人交谈，了解他们对当前潮流生态的感受。

I spent the past few months talking to a lot of teenagers and people in their twenties about sort of what the trend ecosystem feels like to them right now.

他们一次又一次地向我讲述了一些令人深思的独白，说他们知道自己注意力的价值。

And over and over, they they sort of gave me these kind of sobering monologues about how they know that their attention is very valuable.

他们明白，像TikTok这样的短视频平台和快时尚正在协同作用，加速潮流的更替周期。

They understand that things like short form video platforms like TikTok and fast fashion are are kind of working together to speed up the trend cycle.

然而，有时他们仍会感到被卷入其中，这种状态会让人觉得困惑且被困住。

And yet, at times, they can still feel caught up in it, and that can feel like a kind of confusing and and trapped place to be in.

是的

Yeah.

我猜也是。

I bet.

而且他们也知道这一点。

It is also and they know this too.

而且，总的来说，他们比上一代人更有环保意识，因此对此感到内疚。

And and, you know, being more environmentally aware, I suppose, than than older generations by and large, they feel bad about it.

他们知道这一切都与消费有关。

They know it's all about consumption.

对吧？

Right?

就是快速购买东西，然后转身再买更多东西。

It's about buying things quickly and then turning around and buying more things.

绝对如此。

Absolutely.

是的。

Yeah.

趋势的核心本质上是一种广告和销售的结构。

A trend is, at its core, a structure for advertising and selling something.

它也可以成为一种更有趣的自我表达方式，但我认为，消费层面的问题目前深深困扰着许多年轻人。

It also can be a kind of more fun mode for self expression, but I think the consumption aspect of trends is really heavy on the minds of a lot of young people right now.

当你进入像抖音或Instagram这样的平台时，你总会听到‘消费’这个词，而它常常与‘过度消费’形成鲜明对比。

And you hear the word consumption, and it's kind of opposite overconsumption all the time when you get onto a platform like TikTok or Instagram.

对。

Right.

尽管承认社交媒体确实为很多人带来了许多好处，但这正是社交媒体可能带来负面影响的第3972个理由，天啊。

And and while acknowledging that social media, you know, has done a lot of good for a whole lot of people, this is reason 3972 that social media can be bad, man.

是的。

Yeah.

我听到很多年轻人说，每年或每两年就出现一波微趋势的现象，就像我上中学时那样。

I heard from a lot of young people who sort of said that the proliferation of microtrends every year or couple of years the way that might have been the case when, like, I was in middle school.

每周可能会出现好几个，这加剧了人们的不安全感或自卑感，尤其是当你没有并且通常买不起这些东西时。

There can be several a week, and it ratchets up the feeling of insecurity or inadequacy, or if you if you don't have and can't afford often that item.

对。

Right.

关于买不起这个问题，我的意思是，快时尚确实便宜，这些东西大多也不贵。

So on the whole can't afford thing, I mean, you know, fast fashion is cheap, and a lot of these things are not incredibly expensive.

但它们累积起来，你知道，也不是小数目。

But they add up, and, you know, it's not nothing.

完全没错。

Totally.

我采访过一位年轻女性，她说在中学时，真的曾恳求父母，因为她刚转到一所新学校。

I spoke to one young woman who talked about, I think, in middle school, really, like, begging her parents, saying she just started at a new school.

她非常想融入其中。

She really wanted to fit in.

她提到，她上学时看到班上每个女生都戴着发圈。

And she mentioned the fact that she went to school and saw every girl at school had scrunchies.

然后她回家后刷TikTok，又看到了二十多个女孩戴发圈的视频。

And then she went home and scrolled through TikTok and saw, you know, another 20 videos of girls with scrunchies.

这让我觉得，对她来说，这种感觉被加剧了：如果没有这个，我就融入不了。

And it, I think, ratcheted up that feeling for her of, oh, I'm not going to fit in without this.

但随着我们对话的深入，她是好几个年轻人中的一员，向我表达过：我能感觉到这种情况正在发生，我正努力让自己抽身出来。

But as our conversation went on, she was one of several young people who expressed to me, I can feel that this is happening, and I am really trying to take a step back from it.

而这么多的年轻人，他们明明知道正在发生什么，

And so many of these young people who, again, know what is going on

是的。

Right.

正试图从潮流循环中后退一步，尽管有时他们发现这很难做到。

Are, I think, trying to take steps backwards from the trend cycle, although sometimes they are finding that difficult to do.

那你对这个问题怎么看？

Well, so where do you land on this?

对吧？

Right?

这会一直持续下去吗？会变得越来越快，还是最终会因为青少年觉得实在受不了而自然消退呢？

Is is is this gonna keep going, and will it get faster and faster, or is it eventually gonna, you know, die out because teenagers just go, I can't do this anymore?

这挺有意思的。

It's funny.

我向很多专家提过这个问题，听到的都是完全相左的看法。

I've posed this question to so many experts, and I heard a lot of really conflicting things.

一方面，有些人认为TikTok现在岌岌可危。

On one hand, there are people who think that, you know, TikTok is in jeopardy right now.

另一方面，我认识一位每天写趋势简报的人，他说他认为Z世代正在长大，开始看透这些潮流了。

On the other hand, one person I talked to who writes a daily trend newsletter said, you know, I do think Gen z is is growing up, and they're wising up to trends.

但在他们身后，Alpha世代正迅速崛起，她认为Alpha世代对潮流的敏感度会比前几代人更高。

But coming up right behind them is Gen Alpha, and she thinks that members of Gen Alpha will be even more clued into trends than the generations that came before.

我刚才还抱有一丝希望，结果你又提到了Alpha世代。

I I had such hope there, and then you got to Gen Alpha.

抱歉啊。

Sorry about that.

没关系。

That's alright.

好的。

Alright.

凯莉·霍尔特曼，来自《纽约时报》时尚版。

Kelly Holtman at The New York Times at StyleDesk.

凯莉，非常感谢。

Kelly, thanks a lot.

感谢你抽出时间。

I appreciate your time.

是的。

Yeah.

谢谢你的邀请。

Thanks for having me.

最后做个补充，今天要结束时提到的：Klarna，这家先买后付服务公司，宣布与DoorDash达成一项新合作。

This final note on the way out today, which, I mean, okay, Klarna, which is a buy now, pay later service, has announced a new partnership with DoorDash.

所以你可以在食物送达时付款。

So you can pay for your food when it gets delivered.

你可以将其分成四期轻松支付。

You can split it into four easy payments.

顺便说一下，没有利息。

No interest, by the way.

或者你可以将付款推迟到与你发薪日相符的日期。

Or you can put it off to a date that aligns with your payday.

这里值得一提的是，Klarna 计划在纽约证券交易所上市。

It is perhaps worth a note here that Klarna is set to go public on the New York Stock Exchange.

股票代码是 K L A R，如果你感兴趣，或者需要为食物使用先买后付服务的话。

Ticker symbol is gonna be k l a r, should you be interested, or in need of, you know, buy now, pay later for your food.

约翰·巴克利、约翰·戈登、诺亚·卡迪亚斯、The Parker、阿曼达·皮彻和斯蒂芬妮·西克是市场编辑团队。

John Buckley, John Gordon, Noya Cardiath, The Parker, Amanda Peacher, and Stephanie Seek are the marketplace editing staff.

阿米尔·比巴维是主编，我是凯·里兹达尔。

Amir Bibawi is the managing editor, and I'm Kai Rizdal.

我们明天见，各位。

We will see you tomorrow, everybody.

这是APM。

This is APM.

美国的住房系统正面临自然灾害和住房成本上涨的双重压力。

America's housing system is under strain from natural disasters to the rising cost of shelter.

我们所面对的挑战以及所采纳的解决方案，将塑造未来一百年的居住方式。

The challenges we face and the solutions we embrace will shape how we live for the next hundred years.

我是《市场晨报》主持人大卫·布兰卡西奥，我一直在与《旧屋广播》合作制作一期特别播客，探讨美国人如何在这个变化的世界中重新构想住房。

I'm David Brancaccio, host of the Marketplace morning report, and I've been working with this old house radio hour on a special podcast episode that explores how Americans are reimagining housing in this changing world.

这期节目名为《建造明天》。

It's called building tomorrow.

从加利福尼亚州的防火住宅，到德克萨斯州的微型住宅社区，再到东北部超高效节能住宅，这期特别节目融合了创新、新商业模式和个人故事，探索韧性、可负担性与气候现实如何重新定义‘家’的含义。

From wildfire resistant houses in California to tiny home communities in Texas to a super duper energy efficient house in the Northeast, this special blends innovation, new business models, and personal stories to explore how resilience, affordability, and our climate reality are redefining what home looks like.

要收听，请在您的播客应用中搜索《市场晨报》。

To listen, go to Marketplace Morning Report in your podcast app.