不确定性是一种必然

我以最宏观和分析性的方式来说这一点。

I say this in the most macroeconomic and analytical way possible.

发生了什么？

What is happening?

来自美国公共媒体，这里是《市场》节目。

From American public media, this is Marketplace.

在洛杉矶，我是凯·里斯代尔。

In Los Angeles, I'm Kai Risdale.

今天是星期三，3月5日。

It is Wednesday today, the March 5.

一如既往，感谢大家的陪伴。

Good as always to have you along, everybody.

当然，政府经济数据所能传达的信息是有限的，但联邦统计体系仍是了解住房、就业市场、通货膨胀以及更多方面信息的首选来源。

While there is, of course, a limit to what government economic data can tell you, the federal statistical apparatus is the go to for information on housing and the job market and inflation and much, much more.

这些数据有助于人们了解经济现状及其可能走向，并为商业决策和政策制定提供依据。

Data that helps people understand where the economy is and where it might be going, and data that informs business decisions and helps policymakers make policy.

我之所以这么说，是因为商务部解散了两个有助于确保政府经济数据真实反映现状的小组。

I say all that because the Commerce Department has disbanded two groups that help make sure the government's economic data paints a realistic picture of what is going on.

联邦经济统计咨询委员会和经济分析局咨询委员会已经存在了几十年。

The Federal Economic Statistics Advisory Committee and the Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee have been around for decades.

Marketplace的凯莉·威尔斯解释了这些委员会解散后会发生什么。

Marketplace's Kaylee Wells explains what happens now that they're gone.

埃里卡·格罗申对此毫无准备。

Erica Groschen had no idea this was coming.

这完全出乎意料。

This came out of the blue.

直到昨天我收到邮件之前，一点风声都没有。

Nothing up until I got the email yesterday.

而她正是其中一个委员会的成员。

And she was on one of the committees.

康奈尔大学的经济顾问被告知，这个存在了几十年的委员会被解散，是因为其使命已经完成。

The economic adviser at Cornell University was told that the decades old committee was getting disbanded because its purpose had been fulfilled.

你不能通过取消这个沟通机制来完成一项持续性的使命。

You don't fulfill an ongoing mission by canceling this communication mechanism.

这项使命就是让一批在经济领域最顶尖的专家帮助政府。

That mission, to get a bunch of experts at the top of their economic fields to help the government.

当经济分析局想要开发新方法或涉足以往未曾涉及的新领域时，可以向委员会征求意见。

When the Bureau of Economic Analysis wants to develop a new methodology or maybe go into a new area where they haven't been before, they can run their ideas by the committee.

退休经济学家、委员会成员马歇尔·莱因斯多夫表示，提供咨询建议是主要好处之一。

Retired economist and committee member Marshall Rheinsdorf says advice was one major benefit.

另一个好处是政府透明度。

The other was government transparency.

这些委员会向公众开放。

The committees opened their doors to the public.

这给了他们一个机会，向更广泛的群体传达他们的信息。

It gives them a chance to reach out and get their message out to a broader community.

前委员会主席、彭博经济学和彼得森国际经济研究所的大卫·威尔科克斯表示，取消这两个委员会并不会节省太多资金，主要是因为成员们并没有领薪。

Getting rid of these two committees doesn't save much money, mainly because the members weren't getting paid, says former committee chair David Wilcox with Bloomberg Economics and the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

所以我们说的是每年两次，每次八张机票，住一晚不高档的酒店。

So we're talking about eight plane tickets twice a year, one night at a non fancy hotel.

这真的是一笔很小的开销。

This was really inexpensive stuff.

他说这笔钱花得非常值得。

And he says it was money well spent.

布鲁金斯学会的前委员会主席路易丝·沙纳表示，如果输入减少，政府收集的数据将随着时间推移而变差。

Former committee chair Louise Shaner with the Brookings Institution says with less input, the data that the government gathers will get worse over time.

而这些数据本应为GDP、生产率、就业和通货膨胀等问题提供答案。

And that data is supposed to provide answers on GDP and productivity and jobs and inflation.

取决于你提出的问题，你会依赖这些数据。

Depending on what question you're asking, you're gonna go to the data.

如果数据不好，你对这些问题的答案也不会好。

And if the data are not good, your answers to those questions are also not gonna be good.

沙纳表示，解散这些委员会是一个错误。

Shaner says disbanding the committees was a mistake.

我们向政府寻求回应，但经济分析局没有发表评论，商务部也没有回复我们的请求。

We asked the government for a response, but the Bureau of Economic Analysis didn't provide a comment, and the Commerce Department didn't respond to our request.

我是凯莉·威尔斯，来自《市场》节目。

I'm Kaylee Wells for Marketplace.

篡改经济数据是极其危险的。

One messes with economic data at one's peril.

今天的华尔街。

Wall Street today.

到底发生了什么？

What is happening indeed?

正如你可能已经听说的，特朗普总统对关税的态度有所改变，但只是有点儿，而且很有限。

As you've likely heard, president Trump has changed his mind on tariffs, kinda, and only a little bit.

来自加拿大和墨西哥的汽车和卡车获得了暂缓，但仅限一个月。

Cars and trucks from Canada and Mexico get a reprieve, but only for a month.

然而，交易员们还是抓住了能抓住的任何利好。

Traders though took the win where they could get it.

细节、数据，你们都懂的。

Details, numbers, you all know the drill.

虽然暂停对汽车和卡车征收关税确实是福特、通用和斯特兰蒂斯的好消息，但请也关心一下美国农民。

While the pause in car and truck tariffs is indeed good news for Ford and GM and Stellantis, spare a thought, would you, for the American farmer.

不仅昨天已实施了针对墨西哥和加拿大的其他关税，中国也同样如此。

Not only are there there the rest of those tariffs on Mexico and Canada that went into effect yesterday, China as well.

下个月还将有总统昨日承诺将影响农民出口的关税 looming。

There are tariffs looming next month that the president promised yesterday will affect farmers' exports.

因此，我们自然觉得是时候给艾普丽尔·哈姆斯打个电话了。

So we, of course, thought it was a time to give April Hammes a call.

她是我们在爱荷华州的玉米和大豆农民。

She is our corn and soybean farmer in Iowa.

你好，艾普丽尔。

Hi, April.

你好。

Hello.

你今天怎么样？

How are you today?

我很好，但这不是重点。

Well, I'm fine, but it's not about me.

重点在你。

It's about you.

你一直

You've been

我们这儿爱荷华州正经历一场大暴雪。

doing We got a full blown snowstorm going on here in Iowa.

这太棒了。

It's great.

洛杉矶那边在下雨。

Well, rain in LA.

我能说什么呢？

What can I tell you?

给你。

There you go.

我想知道你在想什么，你在这里手舞足蹈地谈论新闻和所有事情。

I wanna know what you're thinking about gestures wildly here, the news and everything.

天啊。

God.

所有事情？

Everything?

是的。

Yeah.

哇。

Wow.

嗯，我听一个电视主持人说过，就在我刚说完这句话，事情就会发生变化。

Well, like, I heard a or a TV guy say, just as soon as I say this, something's gonna change.

这真的太对了。

And it's so true.

我看到了社交媒体上总统发给农民们的那些内容，还有

I got the social media, whatever, that the president sent out to farmers and

嗯。

Mhmm.

你知道，这会带来痛苦，但也会很有趣。

You know, it's gonna hurt, but it's gonna be fun.

我只想说，他对‘有趣’的定义和农民们的定义完全不同，因为

And all I have to say is his definition of fun is way different than the farmer's definition because

太多了。

So so much

关税一点都不有趣。

tariffs are not fun.

我们来聊聊这个吧。

Let's talk about that for a minute.

首先，这并不是你第一次经历特朗普总统的关税政策了。

First of all, this is not your first rodeo with with tariffs from president Trump.

对吧？

Right?

上次一点都不好玩。

It wasn't fun last time.

没错。

Exactly.

这次你有没有做好更充分的准备？

Are you are you more prepared this time somehow?

没有。

No.

就像我说的，还是老一套。

Well, like I say, same song.

这不是第二段。

It's not the second verse.

这次是整个副歌部分。

It's a whole chorus this time.

是的。

Yeah.

因为他把墨西哥和加拿大都包括进来了，消费者会受到伤害。

Because he's including Mexico and Canada, and the consumers are gonna get hurt.

通常受伤害的是农业从业者，但这次受影响的范围会更广。

Usually, it's the ag people that get hurt, but now it's gonna be a lot more

嗯。

Mhmm.

更多是消费者方面的东西。

Of the consumer things.

但，准备得更充分了吗？

But, more prepared?

没有。

No.

实际上，我们现在农业界的情况更糟了，因为利率比以前高，生产成本也大幅上升。

Actually, we in the ag community are worse off now because the interest rates are higher than they were before, and our cost of production's way up.

但我们现在所处的世界真有意思

But, it's an interesting world we have out

是啊。

there.

确实如此。

It is indeed.

而且昨晚他发表了一番演讲，你知道，会有一些动荡，但我们对此并不在意。

And then this so there was a speech last night, and, you know, it's there's gonna be disturbance, but we're okay with that.

不过，我觉得他可能根本没打电话问过你是否同意。

Although, I don't think he probably called you to check if you were okay with that.

他昨天在社交媒体上做的另一件事是，准备从4月2日起只在国内销售，这在我看来没什么道理。

The other thing he did yesterday, though, on on social was get ready to sell only domestically starting April 2, and that doesn't seem to me to make a whole bunch of sense.

没错。

No.

很高兴你提到这一点。

I'm glad you said that.

是的。

Yeah.

我们60%的大豆是出口的。

60% of our soybeans are exported.

我们20%到25%的玉米是出口的。

20 to 25% of our corn is exported.

所以你不可能一夜之间就在国内建立起这些市场。

So you don't build those markets domestically overnight.

我们就是做不到。

We just can't.

你得建设工厂之类的东西。

And you have to build, you know, plants and things like that.

这其中涉及很多方面。

There's a whole lot that goes into it.

所以这不可能一夜之间发生。

So it's not gonna happen overnight.

我听过一些农民的采访，他们说，如果这些关税只持续几个月，那也没关系。

And I've heard some farmers, interviews with farmers that said, oh, it's okay if these tariffs only last a couple months.

但如果超过这个时间，那就不可接受了。

But if it's more than that, it's not okay.

我当时就想，兄弟，你别再自欺欺人了。

And I went, pull your head out of the sand, buddy.

这关税会持续更久的。

It's gonna last more than that.

所以是的。

So yeah.

前几天我跟一个以前负责伊利诺伊大学大豆创新实验室的人聊过，那个实验室即将关闭。

I I talked to a guy the other day who used to run, because it's about to be shut down, something called the soybean innovation lab at the University of Illinois.

对。

Yep.

是的。

Yeah.

在那番对话进行到一半时，我不禁想到你和大豆，还有政府为你们所有人开拓市场所做或已经做的工作。

And that, of course, in the middle of that conversation, I got to thinking about you and soybeans, and and just the the the work that the government does or has done, in building markets for all y'all.

‘你们所有人’指的是像这样的人。

And all y'all means like Kind of person.

美国农民。

American farmers.

对吧？

Right?

而现在呢

And and that's now

你现在听起来像个南方人。

You sound like a southerner now.

你这话有点吓到我了。

You're kinda scaring me there.

凯。

Kai.

嗯，我去亚特兰大上学了。

Well, I went I went I went to school in Atlanta.

你知道的？

You know?

那是很久以前的事了。

It was a long time ago.

哦，原来如此。

Oh, there you go.

但这里的情况也差不多是这样。

But but that's kinda what's going on here too.

对吧？

Right?

你们寻找市场的各种机制正在被瓦解。

The the mechanisms by which you all find markets is being dismantled.

是的。

Right.

我几乎从不参与推特、X或者其他现在叫什么的平台

I never hardly engage on Twitter, x, or whatever it's

现在的名字。

called now.

聪明的选择。

Smart one.

但嗯，确实如此。

But well, yeah.

但外面有一些人一直在贬低USAID，却以为那是USDA。

But there's these people out there that are smack talking USAID only thinking it's USDA.

我参加过两次USDAID的行程。

And I've been on two USDAID trips.

行程。

Trips.

是的。

Yeah.

我们谈过

We talked

关于那件事。

about that.

乌干达。

Uganda.

是的。

Yeah.

没错。

Yep.

在那里做了出色的工作。

And did great work there.

人们并不了解这些工作，以及他们从农民那里购买的、用于养活世界的产品。

And people don't understand the work and then the products they buy from farmers to feed the world.

看到这一切发生，真是令人沮丧。

So it's very disheartening to see all of this going on.

你和我已经聊了很久。

You and I have been talking for a long time.

而且时不时地，就像今天这样，我会问你为什么要做这件事。

And and every now and then, just like today, actually, I ask you why you do it.

但这似乎确实是一个转折点——彼得：。

But this does seem to be -PETER: a turning point.

我之所以对你这么说，是因为我见过你，而且我们已经聊了一段时间。

And I will say this to you only because I've met you and we've been talking for a while.

我开车去了。

Drove my Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

你开过联合收割机。

Did drive your combine.

是的。

Yeah.

你可不是年轻人了。

You ain't no spring chicken.

我想知道，会不会有那么一天，情况变得太糟，让你干脆说：管他呢。

And I guess I wonder if there's a point at which this could get so bad that you would just say, the heck with it.

我不干了。

I'm done.

我退出了。

I'm out.

我要把东西都卖了。

I'm gonna sell off.

哦，

Oh,

不。

No.

我已经种地四十年了。

I have had, this is my fortieth year farming.

我即将种植我的第四十季作物，对此我感到非常自豪。

I'm gonna be planting my fortieth crop, and I'm very proud of that.

你知道的？

You know?

所以我见识过起起落落。

So I have seen the ups and downs.

我们现在经历的，他们称之为一场革命。

And what we're going through now is, what did they call it, a revolution.

埃隆总统和马斯克先生想当革命者。

Elon the president and mister Musk wanna be revolutionaries.

嗯，咱们走着瞧吧。

Well, you know, we'll see.

希望这对每个人都有好处，但我也不确定。

Hopefully, this is better for everyone, but it's I don't know.

我觉得我的农场能挺过这一关。

I think my farm will weather this.

我只是希望其他年轻农民能挺过这一关。

I just hope other younger farmers get through this.

是的。

Mhmm.

这真的非常可怕。

It's very it is very scary.

但我有个爷爷活到了101岁，

But, I mean, I had a grandpa who lived to be a 101 years old,

而且你

and you

想想看，是啊。

think of what yeah.

他刚开始种地时只有三匹马，却一直坚持到

He started farming with three horses and lived

哇。

Wow.

拥有一台自动驾驶拖拉机。

To have an autosteer tractor.

所以这真的是我的指引方向。

So that really is my guiding light.

你知道，他经历了很多，这个农场还会经历更多，但我依然会在这里。

You know, he went through a lot, and this farm will go through more, but I'll still be here.

谢谢，艾普丽尔。

Thanks, April.

我们很快再和你聊。

We'll talk to you soon.

当然。

You bet.

保重。

Take care.

我将在几分钟后告诉你十年期国债的收益率，就像我几乎每天做的那样，因为十年期国债和债券市场总体上能让你很好地了解这个经济体的状况。

I will, in a couple of minutes, give you the yield on the ten year Treasury note as I do nearly every day because the ten year and the bond market generally can give you a good sense of what's going on in this economy.

这是一个基准，影响着从你的房贷、车贷到企业投资的所有方面。

It's a benchmark that affects everything from how much you'll pay for a mortgage to a car loan to a business investment.

几周前，我们告诉过你们，财政部长斯科特·贝桑特表示，他希望十年期国债收益率下降。

Couple of weeks ago, we told you Treasury Secretary Scott Besant had said he wants the yield on the ten year to go down.

而截至今天，自一月中旬以来，收益率已下降了超过半个百分点，在这么短的时间内降幅相当明显。

And as of today, it's off more than a half a percentage point since mid January, a pretty steep drop in a pretty short period of time.

这是一份好坏参半的消息。

Well, this is good news, bad news package.

苏珊·瓦赫特是宾夕法尼亚大学沃顿商学院的房地产与金融学教授。

Susan Wachter is a professor of real estate and finance at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania.

好消息是，当十年期收益率下降时，整体资金成本和利率会发生什么变化。

The good news is what happens to the overall cost of money, interest rates, when the ten year yield drops.

抵押贷款利率正在大幅下降，原因正是十年期国债收益率也在下降。

Mortgage rates are declining substantially, and the reason they are is because the ten year Treasury is declining as well.

如果你正打算买房呢？

Which if you're trying to buy a house?

我和我的家人不同，我的房贷利率非常高。

I, unlike my family members, have a very high interest rate on my mortgage.

妮可·萨维是富国银行的经济学家。

Nicole survey is an economist with Wells Fargo.

对于像她这样在过去几年买房并计划再融资的人，或者那些在当前环境下无力购房的人来说，利率下降是好事。

For people like her who bought houses in the past couple of years with a plan to refinance or who maybe can't afford to buy in the current environment, rates coming down is a good thing.

但利率下降的原因非常重要。

But the reasons that the rates are coming down really matter.

我认为当前十年期国债收益率的驱动因素是政府希望看到的吗？

Do I think that the drivers of the ten year Treasury yield today are what the administration would like to see?

很可能不是。

Likely not.

这种下跌背后的原因正是坏消息所在。

The drivers of that decline are where the bad news comes in.

以下是T公司的美国首席经济学家布莱里娜·乌鲁奇。

Here's Blarina Urucci, chief US economist at T.

罗素价格。

Rowe Price.

推动利率下行的因素之一，是人们对经济增长前景日益增长的不确定性，以及美国经济正出现增长担忧的普遍感觉。

One of the factors driving it lower is, this growing uncertainty about the outlook for growth and this growing sense that a growth scare, is emerging in The US economy.

关税——就像几天前艾莉丝·哈米斯刚提到的——以及消费者信心减弱、零售额下滑，所有这些都可能拖累经济增长。

Tariffs, like April Hemmis was just talking about a couple of minutes ago, weakening consumer confidence as well, falling retail sales, all of those things could weigh on economic growth.

以亚特兰大联储对第一季度GDP的估算为例，我认为我前几天提到过，这是自疫情初期以来的最低水平。

Case in point, the Atlanta Fed's estimate of first quarter GDP that I think I mentioned the other day is the lowest it's been since early in the pandemic.

我认为我们可能会看到几个月的疲软数据，不仅体现在经济增长上，也体现在劳动力市场表现上。

I think we're likely to get a few months of soft data, both in terms of how the economy is growing, but also how the labor market is doing.

说到周五发布的劳动力市场就业报告，我不确定我是否提到过。

Speaking of the labor market jobs report on Friday, not sure I've mentioned that.

所以我认为，增长担忧的叙事在一定程度上推动了十年期收益率下行。

So I think the growth scare narrative is partly driving the ten year yields lower.

较低的增长预期意味着美联储未来可能降息，或被迫降息。

Slower growth expectations mean that the Fed can cut or might be forced to cut interest rates down the road.

我认为这确实是其中一部分原因。

I think that's definitely part of the story.

那么，国债收益率下降是否意味着家庭和企业借贷成本更低了？

So do treasury yields coming down mean cheaper borrowing for households and businesses?

绝对是的。

Absolutely yes.

然而，这是否也可能表明经济正在走弱？

However, could that also be a sign that the economy is weakening?

同样，绝对是的。

Also, absolutely yes.

接下来。

Coming up.

我可以按需订购，而不必大批量购买。

I could kinda order just what I need rather than things in bulk.

创业者们正在付诸行动。

Entrepreneurs getting it done.

不过首先，我们来看一下数据。

First, though, let us do the numbers.

是的。

Yeah.

今天令人开心的音乐。

The really happy music today.

受关税消息影响，道琼斯工业平均指数上涨485点，涨幅1.1%，报43006点。

Dow Industrials up 485 points on that tariff news, one and a tenth percent, forty three thousand zero zero six.

纳斯达克指数上涨267点，涨幅1.5%，报18552点。

The Nasdaq added 267 points, one and a half percent, eighteen thousand five fifty two.

标普500指数上涨64点，涨幅1.1%，报5842点。

The S and P five hundred climbed 64 points, 1.1%, fifty eight and forty two.

福特汽车公司今天上涨了5.8%。

Ford Motor Company accelerated 5.8% today.

斯特兰蒂斯上涨了9.2%。

Stellantis increased nine and two tenths percent.

通用汽车今天上涨了7.2%。

General Motors revved up seven and two tenths percent today.

今日公布的财报显示，Dine Brands Global（苹果园和IHOP的母公司）本季度收入略低于去年同期，但依然强劲。

In earnings out today, Dine Brands Global parent company of Applebee's and IHOP reported slightly lower revenue than the same quarter last year, but still strong.

Dine Brands今天上涨了3.4%。

Dine Brands coupled up 3.4% today.

Brinker International旗下的Chili's下跌了1.5%。

Brinker International with its own Chili's chilled one and a half percent.

芝士工厂的股价仅微跌0.1%。

Cheesecake Factory dipped just a tad a tenth of 1%.

债券下跌，因此十年期国债的承诺收益率为4.28%。

Bonds fell, and thus has promised yield on the ten year t note, 4.28%.

您正在收听《市场》。

You're listening to marketplace.

这里是《市场》。

This is Marketplace.

我是凯·里斯达尔。

I'm Kai Risdahl.

在这里粗略地讲，这个经济由两个截然不同的部分组成。

Painting in very broad strokes here, this economy has two distinct parts to it.

一个是商品部分，即我们制造、销售和购买的东西；另一个是服务，比如理发、你的会计师，诸如此类。

The goods part, stuff that we make and sell and buy, and services, haircuts, your accountant, things like that.

前几天我们向你们更新了商品领域的情况，特别是制造业。

We gave you an update on the goods sector the other day, manufacturing specifically.

那次更新的结果是好坏参半。

That update was distinctly mixed.

今天，我们来看看服务业——今天早上发布了两项调查，一项来自供应管理协会（ISM），另一项来自标普全球。

Today, the services sector, two surveys came out this morning, one from the Institute for Supply Management, ISM, the other from S and P Global.

ISM显示增长。

ISM showed growth.

但标普全球却表示，服务业表现令人担忧地疲弱。

S and P Global though said services are worryingly weak.

这是原话。

That's a quote.

同一个行业，两项调查，结果却看似截然不同。

One sector, two surveys, two seemingly different outcomes.

这是怎么回事呢？你可能会问。

What gives, you ask?

以下是丹尼尔·阿克曼的说法。

Here's Daniel Ackerman.

以下是ISM的史蒂夫·米勒对其团队乐观调查的评价。

Here's what Steve Miller of ISM says about his group's optimistic survey.

这是一些健康的改善。

It's some healthy healthy improvement.

以下是标普全球的克里斯·威廉姆森对其团队悲观调查的评价。

And here's what Chris Williamson of S and P Global says about his group's pessimistic survey.

目前报告的产出增长是自2023年11月以来最弱的。

It's now reporting the weakest output growth since November 2023.

造成这种差异的原因有几个，包括谁在填写这些调查问卷。

There are a few things that could be causing this discrepancy, including who's answering the surveys.

富国银行投资研究所的加里·施洛斯伯格表示，ISM调查主要针对的是高管层的采购和供应链负责人。

Gary Schlossberg with Wells Fargo Investment Institute says the ISM survey is mostly of corner office type purchasing and supply executives.

标普全球的数据则还调查了车间一线人员，因此更贴近实际运作情况。

The SP global number, they also survey people on the shop floor, so it's a little closer to the action.

还有一个问题是，你们在什么时候对这些人进行调查。

Then there's the question of when you're surveying these people.

看好的ISM报告允许公司在整个二月内提交回复。

The glass half full ISM report allowed companies to respond throughout February.

看衰的标普全球调查则只在本月后半段收集数据，当时市场正在下跌，关税风险迫近。

The glass half empty S and P survey only took answers in the second half of the month when markets were dropping and tariffs were looming.

尤其是在这种时候，月初时情况可能看起来不错，但到了月末却可能急剧恶化。

Especially at times like this, things can look good early in the month and collapse late in the month.

因此，施洛斯伯格表示，每月一次的数据发布有时不足以跟上变化。

So Schlossberg says once a month data drops aren't always enough to keep up.

正因如此，我们密切关注高频数据，以验证月度数据所显示的情况。

It's for that reason we keep an eye on the high frequency data to corroborate what we're seeing in the monthly numbers.

包括每周的零售销售和抵押贷款申请报告。

Data including weekly reports on retail sales and mortgage applications.

这两项调查至少有一个共同点，ISM的史蒂夫·米勒和标普全球的克里斯·威廉姆森都注意到了这一点。

There was at least one common thread between the two surveys, which Steve Miller of ISM and Chris Williamson of S and P Global both noted.

人们非常担心潜在的关税影响。

There's a lot of concern around potential tariff impact.

这种关税影响对我们意味着什么？

This tariff impact, what's that gonna mean for us?

随着这些关税现已生效，下个月的调查可能会得出所有人都认同的答案。

With those tariffs actually in effect now, next month's surveys could have answers everyone agrees on.

我是丹尼尔·阿克曼，来自《市场》。

I'm Daniel Ackerman for Marketplace.

关税的狂轰滥炸几乎掩盖了这一切，但本周对劳动力市场来说至关重要。

It's been mostly lost in the tariff fire hose, but this is a big week for the labor market.

2月的就业报告将在周五公布。

The February jobs report comes on Friday.

下周一是首次申请失业救济金的数据发布日。

First time claims for unemployment benefits are tomorrow.

记得，上周这些数据大幅上升了。

Remember, they were up a bunch last week.

今天，薪资处理公司ADP表示，私营部门的招聘已放缓至自7月以来的最低水平，且小型企业上月裁员了。

Today, the payroll processing company ADP said private sector hiring slowed to its lowest level since July and that small businesses cut jobs last month.

市场观察员萨曼莎·菲尔兹对此有更多报道。

Marketplaces Samantha Fields has more on that.

本周，基层协作组织的伊丽莎白·彭·科迪对周五的就业日并不期待。

This week, Elizabeth Penn Coddy at the Groundwork Collaborative is not excited for Friday, jobs day.

我不期待一份乐观的就业报告。

I'm not expecting a rosy jobs report.

最近的联邦裁员还不是原因。

Recent federal layoffs aren't even the reason.

对于大多数人来说，现在还太早，数据还没体现出来。

It's too soon for most of them to show up.

但最近从ADP、失业救济申请和消费者情绪调查中出现的所有数据点

But all the data points coming out lately from ADP, unemployment claims, consumer sentiment surveys

它们共同讲述了一个相似的故事：劳动力市场出现疲软的风险相当大。

They are coming together to tell a similar story that there is a considerable risk for softening in the labor market.

一些疲软迹象已经显现。

Some softening has already been showing up.

国家社会保险学院的米歇尔·埃弗莫尔一直在关注她所跟踪的一个指标——持续每周失业救济申请人数。

Michelle Evermore at the National Academy of Social Insurance has been seeing it in one of the indicators she keeps tabs on, continued weekly unemployment claims.

这意味着那些失业后继续申请救济的人。

That means people who are unemployed and continue to file claims after they become unemployed.

这个数字一直在上升，表明被裁员的人找到新工作越来越难。

That number has been rising, which indicates it's getting harder for people who get laid off to find jobs.

这种降温部分是美联储通过加息来抑制通胀、试图引导经济实现软着陆时所促成的。

This cooling is partly something the Federal Reserve engineered as it raised interest rates to try to bring inflation down and try to steer the economy to a soft landing.

我认为我们勉强成功着陆了，但我觉得过去一两个月里出现了很多新的不确定性。

And I think we kinda stuck the landing, but I think that there's been a lot of new uncertainty in the past month or two.

我最近聊过的几乎所有经济学家都用了‘不确定性’这个词。

Almost every economist I've talked to lately has used that word, uncertainty.

燃烧玻璃研究所的盖伊·伯杰说，这是因为。

Guy Berger at the Burning Glass Institute says that's because.

不确定性具有破坏性，而且目前非常高。

Uncertainty is disruptive, and it's very high right now.

例如，关税会不会实施？

For instance, are tariffs happening or not?

数十亿美元的联邦支出会不会被冻结？

Is billions in federal spending frozen or not?

我们甚至不清楚，即使政策已经出台，具体会如何执行。

We don't exactly know even when policies are implemented exactly how they're going to be implemented.

如果你是雇主，这将是一个非常艰难的经营环境。

And if you're an employer, that's a tough landscape to operate in.

Lightcast的罗恩·赫特里克表示，对许多企业来说，目前最好的选择就是暂停。

Ron Hetrick at Lightcast says for many businesses, it's easier right now to just pause.

如果你是一家公司，

If you were a company and

如果你正打算扩张或招聘，那么这些公司的投资者可能会问你：你疯了吗？

you were saying, I'm looking to expand or I'm looking to hire, you would have investors in those companies saying, are you crazy?

并说现在不是做这些事的合适环境。

And saying this is not the environment to do that in.

我是Samantha Fields，来自《市场》节目。

I'm Samantha Fields for Marketplace.

疫情的一个非常有趣的附带影响是，我们在2020年和2021年看到大量新企业的诞生。

One of the really interesting side effects of the pandemic, we're talking back in 2020, 2021 here, was the number of new businesses that people were starting.

长达两年多的时间里，根据人口普查局的数据，所谓的新增企业数量飙升至前所未有的水平。

For more than two years, and this data is from the Census Bureau, what are formerly called business formations were off the charts.

这其中很多是因为人们失去了原有工作，或在家办公有了更多空闲时间，又或者只是开始思考自己想要过一种怎样的新生活。

A lot of that was people having lost their old jobs or working from home with some extra, shall we say, time on their hands, or maybe just thinking about a different life they might want to live.

还有，别忘了当时四处流动的那笔疫情救济资金。

Also, not to be forgotten, all that pandemic relief money floating around out there.

再快进五年，除了这些新企业的申请之外，经济中的其他几乎所有方面都回到了疫情前的状态。

You fast forward five years, most everything else in this economy is back to where it was in the before times except for those new business applications.

创业者们依然势头强劲，许多人正在创办适应后疫情时代现实的企业。

Entrepreneurs are still on a tear, and a lot of them are starting businesses that are adapted to post pandemic realities.

Marketplace 的贾斯汀·霍将为您带来更多相关内容。

Marketplace's Justin Ho has more on that.

乔埃拉·尼帕基博正在她位于加利福尼亚州奥黑的咖啡车里制作饮品。

Joella Nipakkibo is whipping up some drinks inside the coffee van she owns and operates in Ojai, California.

好的。

Alright.

这是肉桂燕麦抹茶加蜂蜜。

Here's the cinnamon oat matcha with honey.

迪帕克·阿基博在一年半前搬到这里，和妻子以及刚出生的孩子一起从旧金山迁来，当时她创办了这家企业；她至今仍拥有一家名为 Pinhole Coffee 的实体咖啡馆。

Deepak Akibbo launched the business less than a year and a half ago after moving here with her wife and newborn from San Francisco, where she still owns a brick and mortar cafe called Pinhole Coffee.

迪帕克·阿基博表示，她决定将新业务设在一辆房车里的一个重要原因是改善自己的工作与生活平衡。

Deepak Akibbo says a big reason she decided to run her new business out of a van was to improve her work life balance.

我可以随时出现，不必每天开门营业，还能有时间陪伴孩子。

I could pop up whenever I want to and not have to open up every single day and still have time to be with my child.

以房车形式运营也有助于迪帕克·基基博应对后疫情时代给许多企业带来的沉重压力——高昂的成本。

Running it out of a van also helps Deepak Kikibo deal with a post pandemic reality that's weighing on a lot of businesses, high costs.

迪帕克·基基博表示，她给员工的工资约为每小时20美元，外加小费。

Deepak Kikibo says she pays her employees about $20 an hour plus tips.

还有牛奶和咖啡豆的成本。

And then there's the cost of milk and coffee beans.

她说，这些压力影响了她的两家业务，但房车的运营成本低得多。

She says those pressures affect both of her businesses, but the van's overhead is much lower.

除了她自己，房车只有一名全职员工，而且她也不需要囤积那么多物资。

It only has one full time employee other than her, and she doesn't need to stockpile as many supplies.

我每次只买更少的牛奶、更少的一次性用品和更少的咖啡。

I'm just buying less milk at a time, less disposables, less coffee.

我可以只订购我真正需要的东西，而不是大批量购买。

I could kinda order just what I need rather than things in bulk.

与此同时，在辛辛那提，乔丹·安东尼·布朗经营着一家成本高得多的新企业。

Meanwhile, in Cincinnati, Jordan Anthony Brown has been running a new business with much higher overhead.

这是一家名为‘Aperture’的正餐餐厅。

It's a sit down restaurant called the Aperture.

我们正在逐渐确立自己的定位，更偏向于高端休闲风格，价格上接近高档餐厅。

We're settling into our identity a little bit and definitely more of upscale casual, kind of bordering on fine dining in terms of price point.

安东尼·布朗表示，他最近将晚餐人均价格从一年前的约65美元提高到了如今的80至90美元。

Anthony Brown says he recently raised his prices from around $65 a person for dinner a year ago to $80 or $90 today.

这部分涨价是为了应对食品和工资成本的上涨。

Part of that was to cover the rising costs of food and wages.

但他表示，这也反映了后疫情时代的另一种现实。

But he says it also reflected another post pandemic reality.

人们想要的是高档餐饮体验。

People want a fine dining experience.