关税对谁的伤害最大？

又是股市糟糕的一天，我们仍在讨论关税问题。这里是美国公共媒体的《市场天地》。在华盛顿特区，我是金伯利·亚当斯，代替凯·里斯代尔。今天是4月4日星期五。感谢您的收听。

Another rotten day in the markets, and we're still talking tariffs. From American public media, this is Marketplace. In Washington DC, I'm Kimberly Adams in for Kai Risdale. It's Friday, April 4. Thank you for joining us.

这一周可真够呛。虽然今日经济数据的头条是三月份新增了22.8万个就业岗位，但这份月度就业报告却被本周铺天盖地的关税新闻蒙上了阴影。要讨论的太多，时间却太少。我们请到了《华盛顿邮报》的凯瑟琳·兰佩尔和《政客》杂志的萨迪克·帕雷迪。嘿，两位好。

Well, that was a week. And while the headline econ number of the day is the 228,000 jobs added to the economy in March, that monthly jobs report comes with quite the shadow cast over it because of the sheer wave of tariff news we got this week. So much to discuss, so little time. We have Katherine Rampell at the Washington Post and Sadiq Paredi at Politico. Hey, you two.

你们这周过得怎么样？

How's your week been?

嗨，金伯利。

Hi. Hi, Kimberly.

你这周如何？

How's your week?

我熬过来了。

I survived it.

我想听听你们二位的看法——虽然必须声明股市完全不等同于经济，但无法忽视市场对这些关税的反应。我们正经历着自疫情爆发以来最严重的跌幅。凯瑟琳，你觉得这说明了什么？

So I'd love to hear from the both of you because with the disclaimer that the stock market is not the economy at all, you cannot ignore the market reaction to these tariffs. We're seeing drops like we haven't seen since the start of the pandemic. So what does that say to you, Katherine?

报告指出市场并未充分预见到特朗普就是关税狂人这一事实。他早就公开表示要采取这类措施。但不知为何，这些危险信号被忽视了。现在我们正承受后果。公平地说，实际关税甚至比他竞选时宣扬的还要严苛。

It says that markets did not adequately prepare for the fact that Trump is the tariff man. He told us he was going to do something along these lines. And for whatever reason, those, I don't know, red flags were ignored. And now we're dealing with the consequences. Although to be fair, I think the tariffs were even worse than even he had televised on the campaign trail.

他最初说全球征收10%关税，现在变成全球最低10%，而对某些主要贸易伙伴的税率更高。没错，市场正在消化这个噩耗，反应非常剧烈。

He said 10% tariffs globally. Now he's saying 10% minimum tariffs globally with them being a lot higher on some of our biggest trading partners. So yeah. Markets are digesting the news and getting very ill.

萨迪普，你我都在白宫记者邮件列表里，他们发布的通稿里可全是捷报频传。

I mean, Sadeep, you're on the same White House press distribution list than I am, and and you were they're seeing saying nothing but that it's been wins.

是啊，这根本说不通。显然有人在玩舆论游戏，试图转移公众视线。我们正见证历史性时刻——标普500以当前模式运行75年来，每周五天交易，仅有四次出现过如此剧烈的两日跌幅。

Yeah. That does not really work. There's there's obviously a a messaging game here to try to have everybody avert their eyes. We are living through a truly historic moment. The in in the the seventy five years we've had the S and P 500 trading in this fashion five days a week, there have been only four times the stock market has dropped this much in two days.

其中一次就是现在。另外三次分别是1987年股灾、2008年全球金融危机和2020年疫情崩盘。在智能手机时代竟会出现这种人为制造的经济崩溃，实在令人震惊。没有外部压力迫使如此，这是精心策划的关税决策，其计算方式明显反常，彻底打乱了市场节奏。

One of them was these four. The others were the nineteen eighty seven stock market crash and the global financial crisis in two thousand eight and the COVID crash in 2020. This is a remarkable thing to happen in what is essentially a cell phone to to to have a a moment where you're you're deliberately doing this and crashing the economy. There was no outside force that was making this happen. This was a deliberate decision to come up with tariffs that were, obviously, calculated in a somewhat bizarre way that threw everybody off course.

当你做出这种举动，就是在刻意设定未来走向的标杆，人们自然会作出反应，对当前经济政策带来的不确定性产生应激。

And when you you do that, you're deliberately setting a marker for for what comes next, and people are naturally reacting to it, and reacting to the uncertainty that's coming from economic policy right now.

凯瑟琳，关于这些关税，我们能否确定相关价格上涨何时会真正影响到普通民众的生活？

Well, what can we sort of pin down in terms of these tariffs, Catherine, in terms of when these price increases related to them will actually start showing up for regular folks.

假设关税确实实施——过去特朗普总能找到某种缓冲手段至少推迟或暂停部分关税——若如预期般未来一周内生效，我认为消费者首先会感受到价格波动的将是易腐品。主要是水果和蔬菜。我们已看到耐用品的提前囤货现象，比如汽车、家电、家具等企业为应对潜在关税而预先储备的商品。

Assuming the tariffs are actually implemented, and in the past, Trump has found some sort of off ramp to at least delay or suspend tariffs, some of the tariffs, assuming they are implemented, which it looks like they will be within the next week. I think the first things we would probably see, you know, in terms of price increases flowing through to consumers would be perishables. So basically fruits and vegetables. We saw a lot of front loading of durable goods. What you know, things like cars, appliances, furniture, things that companies could stock up on in anticipation of the potential tariffs.

在企业消化这些库存前会有段缓冲期，届时价格可能因补货成本预期而上涨。但像水果蔬菜这类商品——我们从拉美国家进口大量浆果等农产品，目前墨西哥似乎暂免关税（尽管可能随后实施），若最终对墨西哥牛油果、番茄等农产品加征关税，考虑到这些超市低毛利商品本就利润微薄，供应商更难自行消化关税成本，且因无法提前囤积易腐品，影响将立竿见影。

So we'll have a little while before companies work through that inventory, and and we'll probably see some increase because they they're thinking ahead to, like, the cost of replacing those goods. But for things like, you know, fruit, vegetables, we get a lot of fruit from Latin American countries, berries, things like that. For now, it looks like maybe Mexico has been spared. Again, those tariffs may be coming, but we get a lot of avocados, tomatoes, other produce from Mexico. If those tariffs ultimately materialize, one should expect that given for those products, first of all, they're very low margin products, the kinds of fruits and vegetables you buy at the grocery store, so it'll be harder for the suppliers to eat those tariffs, but also because they they couldn't prepare in advance because the fruit would rot.

因此我认为这将是首要观察领域。

So I I think that would be where I would look first.

我想转向本应作为头条的就业数据。Sadeep，你从这份报告中解读出什么？

I wanna turn to the jobs numbers, which would normally be at the top of the show. Sadeep, what did you take from this report?

在这个特殊时期仍能看到强劲就业报告确实令人惊叹，它划出了一条清晰分界线。尽管各方不断释放'解放日'将至、关税迫近的信号，但企业和消费者——乃至整个经济体系——都表现出观望态度。雇主在威胁笼罩下持续招聘，核心消费支出保持坚挺，这些都彰显经济体系对干扰因素的过滤能力。若仅是虚惊一场，我们本可平稳过渡。

It it was it's really quite remarkable to me to see a strong jobs report in a in a week like this because it shows a clear line of demarcation. There has been Mhmm. A lot of telegraphing that liberation day is coming, tariffs are on the way, and a lot of businesses and consumers, like the entire economy, kind of shrugged this off and said, show like, I'll wait and see what actually happens. The fact that employers were still hiring the last couple of months despite all of those threats, the the fact that actual, like, core consumer spending has continued to stay stay strong, that's a really good sign about the economy's ability to look through what could have been noise. And if it were just noise, we would have probably continued on just fine.

但现在转折点已至。影响虽非立现，企业将在数日内感受到供应链阵痛，继而引发部分行业的渐进式萎缩。我们经历过鸡蛋、培根等商品的价格波动，当日常杂货未及考虑汽车电视等进口商品就先涨价时，这种通胀记忆将深刻留存。

But this is the marker now, and we will see. It probably won't happen immediately. It takes time for businesses to adjust, but they'll start feeling the pain in their supply chains within days, and that will lead to the slow bleed of cuts in certain sectors. The the inflationary dynamic, we've lived through this with egg prices, with bacon, with all sorts of things over the last few years, this will will stick in people's minds if you're suddenly paying more for your groceries even before you think about the cars and the TVs and everything else you're buying from overseas.

美联储主席鲍威尔今日在阿灵顿面向财经记者的讲话中提到：'我们面临高度不确定的前景，失业率与通胀同时高企的风险并存'——即滞胀。这双重使命本应协同，如今却相互掣肘，令美联储陷入两难。凯瑟琳，你怎么看？

So Fed chair Jerome Powell spoke today at a conference for business journalists just across over from DC in Arlington, Virginia. And among the things he said was, we face a highly uncertain outlook with elevated risks of both higher unemployment and higher inflation, aka stagflation. This is the two parts of the Fed's dual mandate, but they're kinda not working so nicely together. It puts the Fed in a bind. No, Catherine?

确实如此。滞胀本身就很糟糕，因为没人想要高通胀，也没人想要经济衰退、增长放缓或失业率大幅上升。这些问题本身就够糟了。而滞胀更可怕的地方在于——这正是美联储可能面临的困境——他们并没有能同时解决这两个问题、一举实现双重使命的政策工具。如果他们要应对高通胀，通常的疗法就是加息。

Exactly. Stagflation besides, you know, sucking on its own because nobody wants high inflation, Nobody wants a recession or slow growth or, increase big increases in unemployment. Those things are bad on their own. The even worse feature of stagflation, which is what the Fed is potentially confronting, is that they don't really have a tool that attacks both of those problems and achieves both halves of their dual mandate at once. If they're dealing with higher inflation, the remedy for that is is generally raising interest rates.

若他们面对的是高失业率和经济衰退，解决措施则恰恰相反：需要降息。所以他们陷入了两难境地，无论采取哪种措施，都可能无法履行其两大职责中的一项。而且你知道，除了显而易见的财政政策、贸易政策、撤销特朗普实施的所有措施外，他们确实没有太多其他工具可用——但近期这些都不太可能实现。

If they're dealing with higher unemployment and a recession, the remedy for that is the opposite. It's cutting interest rates. So they're in this bind where no matter what they do, they are potentially failing one half of their of their two biggest duties. And and there, you know, there isn't really a a lot of tool there aren't a lot of tools available other than the obvious, fiscal policies, trade policies, undoing all of the stuff that that that Trump has done, but that doesn't seem likely in in the in in the immediate future anyway.

什么？我们需要国会采取行动？总之，《华盛顿邮报》的凯瑟琳·兰佩尔和Politico的萨迪普·雷迪都在现场。非常感谢二位。

What? We need congress to do something? Anyway, Katherine Rampell is at the Washington Post, Sadeep Reddy at Politico. Thank you both so much.

谢谢，金伯利。

Thanks, Kimberly.

今天的华尔街啊...具体数据我们稍后播报时再细说。就像刚才提到的，三月份新增22.8万个就业岗位，普遍超出经济学家预期。劳动力参与率小幅上升，失业率实际变动不大，微升至4.2%。这些都显示出劳动力市场相当稳健。

Wall Street today ugh. We'll have the details when we do the numbers. So like we were just saying, 228,000 jobs added in March, generally more than economists expected. Labor force participation rate up a bit, and the unemployment rate didn't actually move that much, ticked up to 4.2%. All signs of a fairly resilient labor market.

但正如我们所说，这些数据采集于三月中旬，而现在已是四月，新的全面关税预计将在下周生效。市场专栏记者斯蒂芬妮·休斯研究了贸易政策变化对未来就业可能产生的影响。

But like we said, that data was collected in mid March, and now it's April with new broad tariffs expected to take effect over the next week. Marketplaces Stephanie Hughes looked at how our changing trade policy could affect employment moving forward.

那句'过往表现不预示未来结果'的老话，或许适用于这份就业报告。

That saying past performance is no guarantee of future results, it could apply to this jobs report.

三月份情况还不错，但九月中旬看起来如何呢？

Things were good in mid March, but what did it look like in mid September?

燃烧玻璃研究所的经济学家盖伊·伯格指出，进口关税意味着进口商品价格将上涨，比如连帽衫、耳机和威士忌。如果对这些商品的需求下降

Economist Guy Burgers with the Burning Glass Institute. Tariffs on imports will mean higher prices for, let's say, imported hoodies and headphones and whiskey. And if demand for all that falls

通过这条供应链流向终端消费者的商品将会减少。

Less stuff is going to be going through that chain to the end consumer.

这意味着我们将需要更少的人手来运输、储存和销售这些商品。

Which means we're gonna need fewer people to transport, store, and sell that stuff.

流入零售渠道的商品会减少，可能就不需要那么多销售人员了。

Less of it's gonna go into retail's hands. You probably need less salespeople.

本土制造业岗位也可能受到冲击，短期内尤为明显。瑞银经济学家乔纳森·平格尔举例说，汽车制造商将面临进口零部件成本上升的问题。

Manufacturing jobs here could be hit too, particularly in the short term. UBS economist Jonathan Pingle says, take automakers, who'll be paying more for imported car parts.

如果因生产成本大幅上涨导致车价飙升，这些汽车的需求量很可能会下降，自然也就不需要那么多工人来生产了。

If the price goes up a lot because the production costs have gone up a lot, the demand for those cars is probably gonna fall, and that probably need needs less workers to produce those cars.

平格尔表示，如果关税持续存在，制造业可能会回流美国。但在某些情况下，这可能需要一年，甚至更长时间。此外，并非每一个海外制造业岗位都能转化为本国的新就业机会——它可能被机器人取代。

Pingle says if tariffs stay in place, manufacturing could move back to The US. But that could take, in some cases, a year, in other years, plural. Also, not every manufacturing job abroad equals a new job for a person here. It could equal a job for a robot.

可以想象，原本需要10名海外工人的工作，现在可能只需3名美国工人加上技术手段来完成其余7人的工作量。

You could imagine 10 people overseas becomes three US workers plus the other seven people's jobs being done by technology paired with The US worker.

部分行业的就业受影响较小。领英经济学家科里·坎坦加指出，例如那些在本土创造和消费的服务业。老龄化社会特别需要的医疗保健就是典型代表。

Jobs in some industries will be less affected. LinkedIn economist Corey Cantanga says, think services that are created and used here. One that's especially needed by an aging population is health care.

我们将需要更多护工来照料老年群体，也就是照料我们所有人。

We're going to need workers to take care of our elderly to take care of us.

但瑞银的乔纳森·平格尔总体认为，这些关税将损害经济增长、削弱国家财富，并最终降低劳动力需求。市场观察栏目，斯蒂芬妮·休斯报道。

But overall, UBS's Jonathan Pingle says these tariffs are gonna hurt economic growth, hurt our national wealth, and ultimately hurt demand for workers. I'm Stephanie Hughes for Marketplace.

德克萨斯州是全美增长最快的州之一，但人口激增也意味着用水需求上涨。以西奥德萨为例，当地许多居民家中没有自来水——而这个地区正拥有价值数十亿美元的繁荣石油产业。如何筹措资金建设输水管道等新基础设施成为重大难题。MARFA公共电台记者米奇·博尔登带来报道。

Texas is one of the fastest growing states in the country, but the population boom there also means an increase in the demand for water. Take West Odessa, where many residents don't have running water. And this is in a region where the multibillion dollar oil industry is thriving. But figuring out how to pay for new infrastructure to get water lines where they need to be is a big problem. MARFA Public Radio's Mitch Borden has the story.

当卡特琳娜·塔瓦雷斯驾车带我穿行西奥德萨社区时，可见大多数住宅和房车旁都摆放着笨重的储水罐。

As Katerina Tavares drives me around the West Odessa neighborhood, there are bulky water tanks alongside most of the homes and RVs.

这里有个黑色水箱，那边还有个绿色水箱。房车区有三个水箱在运作。

There's a black tank right here. There's they've got a green tank back there. RV plays with three tanks.

居民们用这些大型容器储水，因为他们没有其他可靠水源。西奥德萨是个未建制社区，当地官员认为约有5万居民。近年来这个西德州社区发展迅猛，许多人因廉价土地和宽松法规迁居至此。你可能会看到住宅区中央的小牧场、堆满石油钻探设备的工作场，或是密集排列在单一地块上的移动房屋。

Residents store water in these large containers because otherwise they don't have a reliable source. West Odessa is an unincorporated community that local leaders believe has around 50,000 residents. And in recent years, the West Texas community has been growing fast. Many people came here for cheap land and few regulations. You might see a small ranch in the middle of a residential neighborhood, workyards filled with oil drilling equipment or mobile homes packed tightly on single lot.

这就是西奥德萨。看看，你们有漂亮的房子，旁边却是摇摇欲坠的破旧移动屋。

This is West Odessa. Mean, look. Y'all have a beautiful home, and then you have random mobile homes falling apart.

随着人口增加，社区已扩展到现有供水管网之外。因此需要这些水箱——灌满数千加仑的水既耗时又耗钱。塔瓦雷斯把车停到邻居家，向我解释他们的取水方式。

And as more people have moved here, the community has expanded beyond existing water lines. Hence, the tanks, which can take a ton of time and money to fill with thousands of gallons of water. Tavares pulls up to her neighbor's house and tells me how they do it.

他们会开平板卡车，带着各式水箱去能找到便宜水源的地方。她告诉我每周要花两三小时运水。

They'll have their flatbed. They'll have different kinds of tanks. They go out wherever it is that they can either find it less expensive. And she told me it takes her about two to three hours per week to haul water.

塔瓦雷斯是'西奥德萨水战士'组织成员，该组织正努力让更多居民接入公共供水系统。去年创建该组织的帕蒂·卡波夫表示进展艰难。

Tavares is part of a group called the West Odessa Water Warriors, which is trying to get more residents connected to the water utility. Patty Kapoff, who founded the group last year, says it's not been easy.

你以为产油区很有钱？其实我们很穷。这里的人口已经完全失控了。

You'd think prolific oil fields, right? We would have money, but we don't. And, you know, this population just got out of control.

问题的一大症结在于，西奥德萨部分地区虽有自来水供应，但大片区域却完全无法获取。当地水务系统由埃克特县公用事业区运营，该机构无力承担铺设管道至西奥德萨偏远地区所需的数百万美元资金。

A big part of the problem is some parts of West Odessa have access to running water, while large swaths just don't. The local water system is run by the Ector County Utility District, which doesn't have the millions of dollars needed to run water lines to the far corners of West Odessa.

核心矛盾在于，99%的用水需求者都位于辖区之外，那些地方根本没有任何基础设施。

The main issue is 99% of the people that are asking for water are outside the district, so there is no infrastructure out there whatsoever.

达里尔·庞多近期当选为该公用事业区董事会成员。要实现供水目标需要更多居民缴纳费用，这已引发了不少棘手讨论。

Darryl Pondo was recently elected to the utility district's board of directors. Lots more people would have to pay into the system for this to work, which has sparked some difficult conversations.

有位居民对我说：达里尔，你是说我可能活不到通自来水那天？我回答说我可能都活不到那天。我说完成这个工程的或许不是我孩子，而是我的孙辈。

One citizen tell me, she goes, Darryl, you mean to tell me that I probably won't be alive by the time you get me water? I said, I might not even be alive. I said, it might not be my kids, it might be my grandkids that are finishing this up.

他表示目前有些项目正在推进以扩大洁净自来水覆盖范围，但尚无任何方案能彻底解决当前规模的用水危机。事实上，随着人口迁入，整个德克萨斯州的社区都面临水资源枯竭的忧虑。立法者虽在讨论加大水利投资，但西奥德萨居民如卡塔琳娜·塔瓦雷斯仍感到被遗弃。

He says there are some projects in the works that will expand access to clean and running water, but nothing that will fix the problems at the scale that is necessary. In fact, across Texas, communities are worried about running out of water as more people move in. Lawmakers are talking about investing more in water projects, but people out here in West Odessa like Catarina Tavares feel abandoned.

这对他们不是问题，也非优先事项。

It's not an issue for them. It's not a priority for them.

这并非总是关乎向新开发区延伸管道。像塔瓦雷斯家这样的情况，是老水井已经干涸了。

And it's not always about expanding lines to new developments. In some cases, old water wells have dried up, which is what happened to Tavares.

这是基本需求。自来水是我们所有人都需要的基本生活保障。我的意思是，这本来不该成为现在的问题。多年前就该解决了。多年前。

This is a basic need. Running water is a basic need that we all have. I mean, this should have this should not be a problem right now. It should have been fixed years ago. Years ago.

目前，她和邻居们仍会四处取水填满容器，以维持家中水龙头运转。在德州西奥德萨，我是Marketplace的记者米奇·波登。

For now, she and her neighbors will keep filling their water containers wherever they can to keep their faucets running. In West Odessa, Texas, I'm Mitch Borden for Marketplace.

接下来。

Coming up.

你将看到某种近乎全民普惠体系的雏形。

You get to something that starts to almost look and feel like a universal system.

这个州正在补贴育儿费用。但首先，咬紧牙关，让我们看看数字：道琼斯工业平均指数暴跌2231点，跌幅5.5%，收于38314点；纳斯达克指数重挫962点，跌幅5.8%，报15587点；标普500指数下跌322点，跌幅6%，收于5074点。

The state that's subsidizing childcare. But first, grit your teeth, and let's do the numbers. Well, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2,231 points, five and a half percent to close at 38,314. The Nasdaq dropped 962 points, five and eight tenths percent to finish at 15,587. And the S and P 500 lost 322 points, 6% to end at fifty seventy four.

本周行情惨淡，道指累计下跌7.9%，纳斯达克指数跌幅达10%进入熊市区域（即较峰值下跌20%以上），标普500指数累计下挫9.1%。银行股今日与消费股、科技股同步受挫：花旗集团跌7.8%，美国银行跌7.6%。

For the very rough week it was, the Dow lost seven and nine tenths percent. The Nasdaq lost 10% entering bear market territory, meaning a drop of 20% or more from its peak, and the S and P lost nine and a tenth percent. Bank stocks took a hit today along with consumers and investors. Citigroup fell seven and eight tenths percent. Bank of America was down seven and six tenths percent.

债券价格上涨。十年期国债收益率降至4.00%。您正在收听的是Marketplace。这里是Marketplace，我是金伯利·亚当斯。

Bonds rose. The yield on the ten year t note fell to four point o o percent. And you're listening to Marketplace. This is Marketplace. I'm Kimberly Adams.

正如我们之前所说，这场贸易战将冲击每个人的钱包。耶鲁预算实验室估计，新鲜农产品价格将上涨4%，服装价格上涨17%。这种通胀对低收入人群打击最为严重。耶鲁预算实验室的数据显示，特朗普的关税将使最贫困家庭的可支配收入每年至少减少1700美元。Marketplaces的凯莉·威尔斯将为我们解析。

Like we said earlier, this trade war is gonna hit everybody's wallet. The Yale Budget Lab estimated fresh produce prices will go up 4%, clothing prices up 17%. That kind of inflation hits people with the lowest incomes hardest. The Yale budget lab figures Trump's tariffs will slash disposable income in the poorest households by at least $1,700 a year. Marketplaces Kaylee Wells explains.

简而言之，最低收入家庭在必需品上的支出更多。Global Data TS Lombard的史蒂夫·布利茨表示，受影响最严重的类别将是服装。

Simply put, the lowest income households spend more money on necessities. Steve Blitz with Global Data TS Lombard says the category that'll hit them hardest is apparel.

这确实是他们感受最深的地方，因为他们和其他人一样需要购买衣服。

That's really where they're gonna feel the most because they buy clothes like everybody else.

他指出，虽然可以延长衣物使用时间、缝补破洞，但每个人偶尔都需要新内衣和衬衫。特拉华大学的盛璐教授从事时装与服装研究。

He says, yes, you can hold on to clothes longer, mend tears, but everybody needs new underwear and shirts sometimes. Sheng Lu teaches fashion and apparel studies at the University of Delaware.

当前互征关税的结构尤其会导致针对平价市场的产品价格上涨。

The current reciprocal tariff structure especially leads to a price hike for products targeting the value market.

这意味着来自孟加拉国、柬埔寨、斯里兰卡等面临最高关税国家的最廉价服装。刘表示，这使得低收入消费者陷入困境。

Meaning the cheapest clothes, which come from Bangladesh, Cambodia, Sri Lanka, countries that face some of the highest tariffs. Liu says that puts low income buyers in a tough position.

与较富裕的消费者相比，他们的选择本就更为有限。

They already have more limited choices compared to more affluent consumers.

因为如果你已经在购买最经济实惠品牌的内衣，那就没有更便宜的选择可换。你只能接受更高的价格。亚利桑那州立大学农业商业教授蒂姆·理查兹表示，这也是低收入群体在食品杂货店面临的困境。

Because if you're already buying your underwear from the most affordable brands, there's nothing cheaper to switch to. You just have to pay the higher price. That's a problem people with lower incomes face at the grocery store too, says Tim Richards, who teaches agribusiness at Arizona State University.

收入较高的前50%人群，他们大约将收入的10%用于食品支出。但若观察收入最低的20%人群，他们收入的30%都花在了食物上。

The top half of of income earners, they spend about 10% of their of their income on food. But if you look at the lowest 20% of income earners, they spend 30% of their income on food.

理查兹指出，高收入消费者还可以选择降级消费，比如从有机蔬菜转向更便宜的普通蔬菜。

Richard says those higher income shoppers can also trade down from, say, the organic vegetables to the cheaper ones.

关税真正有害的一点在于，那些无法找到替代品的人最终承受了更大的冲击。

It's one of the real harmful things about tariffs is that the people that are, less able to substitute away end up paying the bigger hit.

理查兹表示这还会影响健康，因为更健康的食品往往价格更高。如果连最便宜的蔬菜都负担不起，人们就只能放弃购买。我是Marketplace的凯莉·韦尔斯。

And Richard says that has health impacts because healthier foods tend to be more expensive. And if you can't afford the cheapest vegetables, then you don't buy any. I'm Kaylee Wells for Marketplace.

美国的儿童保育服务是市场失灵的典型案例。日托费用已接近家庭承受极限，这种经济约束使得保育机构难以提供足够名额来满足需求，或提供我们明知对孩子有益的优质服务。疫情充分暴露了这个问题，此后有几个州政府试图通过帮助更多家庭负担保育费用来恢复平衡，其中一个州甚至承诺为日托费用买单——不仅面向低收入家庭，还包括许多中产阶级家庭。Marketplace的萨凡纳·彼得斯将从新墨西哥州为我们带来报道。

Childcare in The United States is a classic example of a failing market. Daycare prices are already about as high as families can bear, and that constraint makes it hard for childcare centers to offer enough slots to meet demand or the quality of care that we know is good for kids. The pandemic really highlighted this problem, and since then, a couple of state governments have been trying to bring things into balance by helping more households afford care, including one state that's offering to foot the day care bill, not just for low income families, but many in the middle class as well. Marketplaces Savannah Peters brings us this story from New Mexico.

在阿尔伯克基市中心的克里斯蒂娜·肯特早教中心，课程内容由孩子们主导。此刻，兔子教室里的两三岁幼童们正将课程引向《侏罗纪公园》的方向。

At Christina Kent Early Childhood Center in Downtown Albuquerque, the kids guide the curriculum. And right now, the two and three year olds in the bunny classroom are guiding it in a Jurassic Park kind of direction.

你知道这些恐龙中任何一只的名字吗？

Do you know the names of any of these dinosaurs?

小兔子们正在和他们的老师丹妮尔·莱因特森一起翻弄一篮子三角龙和腕龙的玩具，老师已经规划了几周的恐龙主题活动。

The bunnies are digging into a basket of toy Triceratops and Brachiosauri with their teacher Danielle Reinertson, who has a few weeks of dino activities planned.

如果他们想换别的活动，是的，我们可能会转向其他内容。

And if they wanna move on to something else, yeah, we'll probably move on to something else.

比如制作家庭肖像画，或者观察真正的毛毛虫如何蜕变成彩绘女郎蝴蝶。莱因特森和另外两名老师带领着这个18名幼儿的班级。这里的成人孩子比例很低，这也是该中心获得新墨西哥州五星级质量评级的原因之一，但同时也导致运营成本高昂。

Something else like making family portraits or watching real caterpillars transform into painted lady butterflies. Reinertzen and two other teachers lead this class of 18 toddlers. That's a low grown up to kid ratio. And one reason why this center earns a five star quality rating from the state of New Mexico, but also what makes running it so expensive.

我们的利润空间相当有限。

Our margins, are fairly narrow.

中心主任桑德拉·卡彭特说道。

Says director Sandra Carpenter.

连续多年，该中心一直处于亏损状态。

Consistently for a number of years in a row, the center was running in the red.

就像走钢丝一样，中心勉强收取的费用仅够支付工资和维持基本运营，但仍有大量家庭难以负担学费。

And walking this sort of tightrope where the center was barely charging enough to cover payroll and keep the lights on, but still lots of families struggled to make tuition payments.

总会有一部分家庭——我们是否要将其债务转给催收机构？还是将其列为年度亏损？

You always have a certain amount of families that you do we send them to collections? Do we take it as a loss for the year?

但在2021年，新墨西哥州的大规模投资改变了这一局面。该州大幅扩大了儿童保育援助的资格范围，并提高了接受保育券的中心的报销费率。现在卡彭特表示，新墨西哥州为她中心60%的家庭支付了全部学费。

But then in 2021, New Mexico made some big investments that changed that dynamic. It dramatically expanded eligibility for child care assistance and boosted the reimbursement rate centers receive for accepting child care vouchers. Now Carpenter says New Mexico pays the entire tuition bill for 60% of families at her center.

这让 childcare 项目能真正聚焦于我们的核心——孩子们身上。

It's allowed childcare programs to really focus where we wanna focus, which is on the kids.

这项扩展计划的资金来自几个主要由石油和天然气收入支撑的州立投资基金。

The money for this expansion comes from a couple of state investment funds fed mostly by oil and gas revenue.

你可以选择什么是重要的，而新墨西哥州真正决定在幼儿教育上大展拳脚。

You can make choices about what's important, and New Mexico has really decided to go big on early childhood.

海莉·海恩斯在新墨西哥大学研究儿童保育政策。她表示，现在年收入不超过12.4万美元的新墨西哥州四口之家可以免费送孩子上日托中心——这是该州收入中位数的两倍。

Haley Hines studies childcare policy at the University of New Mexico. She says a New Mexican family of four making up to a $124,000 a year can now send their kids to daycare for free. That's twice the state's median income.

你会触及一个几乎开始看起来和感觉上像是一个通用体系的东西。

You get to something that starts to almost look and feel like a universal system.

目标还包括改变儿童保育服务提供商的商业考量，帮助他们摆脱桑德拉·卡彭特所描述的那种如履薄冰的状态。

The goal is also to change the business calculus for childcare providers and help them get off that tightrope, Sandra Carpenter was describing.

我们能否以这种方式改造这个体系？能否提高其质量？能否激励提供商开设新教室，因为他们知道将获得这种可靠的高收入来源？

Could we transform the system that way? Could we make it higher quality? Could we incentivize providers to open new rooms because they know they're gonna have this reliable higher revenue source?

海因茨表示，新墨西哥州的策略是向这个失灵的市场注入大量公共资金，试图让它为每个人更好地运转。简单吧？对吧？我正想说，如果每个州都有石油资金，也许我们就能解决儿童保育危机了。

New Mexico's play, Heinz says, is to inject lots of public money into this broken market to try and make it work better for everybody. Easy. Right? Right. I was gonna say if every state could have oil money, maybe we could solve the childcare crisis.

杰西卡·布朗是南卡罗来纳大学研究儿童保育市场的经济学家。她说，为新墨西哥州项目提供资金的投资基金是独特的，但其他州应该借鉴。儿童保育具有双重作用：既促进父母参与劳动力市场，又对儿童发展至关重要。布朗指出，如果新墨西哥州能让更多儿童获得高质量保育，研究表明这些孩子未来会赚更多钱，减少对政府援助的需求。目前，新墨西哥大学的研究人员表示，扩大的补贴正在帮助提供商投资于提高教师工资、改善设施，在某些情况下还实现了规模扩张。

Jessica Brown is an economist at the University of South Carolina studying childcare markets. She says the investment funds that pay for New Mexico's program are unique, but other states should be taking notes. Childcare serves this dual purpose in facilitating labor force participation of parents, but also being really important for the child development. If New Mexico can get more kids into high quality care, Brown says there's research showing those kids will make more money and need less government help down the road. For now, researchers at the University of New Mexico say the expanded subsidy is helping providers invest in higher teacher salaries, better facilities, and in some cases, expanding.

让她跳舞。

Get her to dance.

在克里斯蒂娜·肯特早期儿童中心原址的街对面，有一栋将容纳五个新的婴儿、幼儿和学前班教室的建筑。主任桑德拉·卡彭特知道，既然更多家庭能负担得起保育费用，该中心现在可以填满这些教室了。

Across the street from the original Christina Kent Early Childhood Center is a building that will house five new infant, toddler, and pre k classrooms. Director Sandra Carpenter knows the center can fill those classrooms now that more families can afford care.

这是否为我们奠定了足够的基础，使我们能够说‘是的，让我们承担这笔贷款’？确实如此。我认为十年前学校在财务上还没有能力做出这样的决定。

Has that set the stage and the foundation for us to be able to say, yes. Let's take on a loan. It has. I don't think the school ten years ago was in a financial position to make that kind of decision.

现在利润空间稍大一些，它就能迈出这一步。在阿尔伯克基，我是Marketplace的萨凡纳·彼得斯。

Now that its profit margins are just a little wider, it can take the leap. In Albuquerque, I'm Savannah Peters for Marketplace.

今天最后要提的是，正如我们一直所说，这些关税的影响在某些领域会比其他领域更为严重。例如在游戏行业。Polygon报道称，桌面游戏行业对关税消息陷入全面恐慌，因为诸如特殊骰子、木质和塑料配件几乎全部来自中国，可能面临54%的关税。电子游戏玩家的情况也好不到哪去。CNBC有消息称，任天堂正在推迟备受期待的Switch二代预购，引用其说法是‘评估关税潜在影响及不断变化的市场状况’。

This final note on the way out today, as we've been saying, the effect of these tariffs will hit harder in some areas than in others. For example, in gaming. Polygon is reporting that the tabletop gaming industry is in full panic with the tariff news since things like specialty dice and wooden and plastic components almost all come from China and could be subject to a 54% tariff. Digital gamers aren't much better off. CNBC has news that Nintendo is delaying preorders for the highly anticipated Switch two to quote, assess the potential impact of tariffs and evolving market conditions.

我们的主题音乐由BJ Liederman创作。Marketplace的执行制作人是Nancy Fargali。Donna Tam担任执行编辑。Neil Scarborough是副总裁兼总经理。我是Kimberly Adams。

Our theme music was composed by BJ Liederman. Marketplaces executive producer is Nancy Fargali. Donna Tam is the executive editor. Neil Scarborough is the vice president and general manager. And I'm Kimberly Adams.

祝大家周末愉快。我们周一再见。这里是APM。我是Kimberly Adams，Marketplace旗下播客《Make Me Smart》的主持人，这个节目让当下变得清晰易懂。每周我都会深入探讨科技、文化和经济领域的重要事件，欢迎持续关注。

Have a great weekend. We will be back on Monday. This is APM. I'm Kimberly Adams, host of Make Me Smart, a podcast from Marketplace that makes today make sense. Join me throughout the week as I dig into the biggest stories in tech, culture, and the economy.

无论是就业市场的氛围评估，还是中美关系的最新动态，《Make Me Smart》都能帮助你理解这些头条新闻如何实际影响你的日常生活。欢迎在你喜欢的播客应用上收听《Make Me Smart》。

Whether it's a vibe check on the job market or the latest on China US relations, Make Me Smart helps you understand how the headlines actually impact your daily life. Listen to Make Me Smart on your favorite podcast app.