朝九晚五——外加晚六到十一。周末或许也要加班。

显然，这个经济正在经历某种旅程。

Clearly, this economy is on some kind of journey.

问题是，它最终会走向何方？

The question is, where is it gonna wind up?

来自美国公共媒体，这里是《市场》节目。

From American public media, this is Marketplace.

在洛杉矶，我是凯·里斯达尔。

In Los Angeles, I'm Kai Risdall.

今天是星期一。

It is Monday.

今天是3月17日。

Today, this one is the March 17.

感谢大家一如既往的陪伴。

Good as always to have you along, everybody.

本周结束时，我们将更清楚地了解那些负责让经济保持正轨的人——也就是美联储——对当前发生的一切有何看法。

We're gonna come out the other end of this week with a better idea of what the people whose job it is to keep this economy on the straight and narrow, that would, of course, be the Federal Reserve, what they think about everything that is going on.

央行将于明天和周三召开会议讨论利率问题，主席鲍威尔及其团队还将就我们经济的未来前景、失业率、通胀率和利率的预测发表看法。

The Central Bank meets tomorrow and Wednesday on interest rates, and chair Powell and the gang will also give us their sense of what our economic future might be, their projections for unemployment and inflation and interest rates.

不过在此期间，我们觉得有必要先做个背景铺垫，以确保大家都能跟上进度。

In the meanwhile, though, we were thinking a bit of a scene setter might be in order just to make sure everybody is up to speed.

因此，我们邀请了穆罕默德·埃尔-埃里安。

So we have called Mohamed El-Erian.

他是剑桥大学女王学院的院长。

He's the president of Queens College Cambridge.

埃尔-埃里安博士，很高兴您再次做客我们的节目。

Doctor El-Erian, good to have you back on the program, sir.

谢谢您的邀请。

Thank you for having me.

您如何看待当前美国经济正在发生的变化？

What is your sense of what's being done to the American economy right now?

目前所做的努力，是试图在国内和国际两个层面重新调整经济结构。

So what's being done is an attempt to reorganize it both domestically and internationally.

在国内，我们看到政府正在大力推动改革。

Domestically, we're seeing major efforts going on with the government, of course.

希望借此简化流程并提高效率。

The hope is to streamline and make it more efficient.

我们还被承诺将推出多项措施，以减少对私营部门的监管。

And we've been promised a number of measures to deregulate the private sector.

在国际方面，我们看到了建立更公平贸易体系的努力。

In terms of international, we've seen attempts at a fairer trading system.

无论在国内还是国际上，这都是件非常棘手的事情。

This is a really tricky thing to do both domestically and internationally.

这将涉及特朗普总统所说的短期‘小动荡’，而其他人则视之为一段非常颠簸的旅程。

It will involve what president Trump called little disturbances in the short term, what others see as a very bumpy journey.

完全不确定的是，最终的目的地会是什么样子。

What is completely uncertain is what the destination looks like.

‘重组’这个词听起来似乎很温和，但让我们谈谈两个方面：短期和长期。

Reorganize seems charitable, but let's let's talk about, two things, the short term and the long term.

短期内，你自己已经表示，今年经济衰退的可能性从几周前的10%左右上升到了30%左右。

In the short term, you yourself have now come out and said your estimates on the chances of recession this year are now 30 ish percent instead of the 10 ish percent they were a couple of weeks ago.

你能否回想一下，有没有哪位美国总统通过其政策导致美国陷入衰退？

Do you recall a time when a president of The United States through his policies has sent The United States into a recession?

我想不起来。

I don't.

这种现象你通常在发展中国家看到，最近在阿根廷就发生过，其理念是拆除现有体系，以建立一个新的体系。

This sort of thing you see in developing countries, you've seen it recently in Argentina, where the notion is you dismantle an existing system in order to put another one up.

想象一下，你正在一架飞机上，突然决定拆掉引擎并换上一个新的。

Think a little bit about you being on a plane, and suddenly the decision is to dismantle the engine and put a new one on.

当你试图这样做时，维持飞行高度实际上非常困难。

It's actually very difficult to maintain altitude when you're trying to do that.

那么最坏的情况是什么？

What's the worst case then?

最坏的情况是，美国经济放缓至所谓的失速速度。

So the worst case is that The US economy slows to what's called stall speed.

那我们给它一些具体数字吧。

So let's give it some numbers.

嗯哼。

Mhmm.

年初时，国际货币基金组织认为我们的增长率约为2.7%。

Coming into the year, the IMF thought that we would grow at about 2.7%.

我猜测，如果国际货币基金组织今天更新预测，这个数字将会是2%或更低。

I suspect if the IMF were to update its projection today, that number will be 2% or below.

这为什么重要？

Why does that matter?

因为美国经济的失速临界点大约是1%。

Because stall speed for The US economy is about 1%.

那么，经济衰退的概率就会显著上升。

Then the probability of a recession suddenly goes up significantly.

如果我们真的陷入衰退，你将会看到几件事情发生。

If we then fall into recession, you're gonna see a couple of things happening.

你会看到劳动力市场受到冲击，而收入是低收入群体在耗尽储蓄并背负大量债务后维持生计的唯一依靠。

You're gonna see the labor market getting hit, and income is the only thing keeping people going at the low income stages after they've run down all their savings and incurred a lot of debt.

企业将从观望转向长期推迟投资计划。

And businesses are gonna go from a wait and see to postponing investment programs for a long time.

在这种环境下，加上当前的通胀水平，美联储无法通过降息来挽救局面。

And in this environment and with inflation where it is, the Fed will not be able to get us out with interest rate cuts.

这就是人们所担心的负面情景。

That that is the negative scenarios that people are worried about.

我想再回顾一下美联储及其影响的问题。

I wanna go over that again, the idea of the Federal Reserve and what happens.

因为正如你和其他人指出的，美联储将面临通胀加剧的挑战，这是因为关税以及价格水平可能上涨，同时劳动力市场趋于疲软，这对美联储来说是非常不利的处境。

Because as you and others point out, the Fed is going to be challenged with rising inflation dynamics, right, because of the tariffs and and price levels probably going up, with a softening labor market, and that is a very bad place for the Fed to be.

是的。

Yeah.

这就是所谓的滞胀迹象，美联储的双重目标在这种情况下相互冲突，产生负面影响。

That's the so called whiff of stagflation, where the two mandates of the Fed compete with each other in a negative sense.

听好了。

Look.

如果美联储真的认真对待其2%的通胀目标，我们就不会讨论美联储何时降息以及降多少了。

If the Fed was really serious about its 2% inflation target, we would not be talking about when will the Fed cut rates and by how much.

我们会讨论美联储何时加息。

We'd be talking about when is the Fed gonna hike rates.

所以我认为，当真正面临抉择时，美联储目前会容忍高通胀，以保护实体经济。

So I think when push comes to shove, the Fed will tolerate high inflation for now in an attempt to protect the real economy.

但如果冲击来自外部，美联储能做的也有限。

But there's only so much the Fed can do if the disturbances are coming from elsewhere.

外部指的是什么？

Elsewhere meaning?

比如，狗狗币正在发生的情况。

Meaning, for example, what's happening with DOGE.

首先，它减少了联邦雇员的收入不安全感。

One, it decreases the income insecurity of federal employees.

当你的收入不安全感上升时，你会减少支出。

And when your income insecurity goes up, you spend less.

第二，它正在扰乱许多已有其他承诺的固定付款。

Two, it is disrupting a lot of committed payments that had other commitments on their side.

因此，我们看到许多联邦承包商不得不裁员。

So we're seeing a lot of federal contractors having to lay off people.

所以，在DOGE方面正发生着很多干扰。

So there's a lot of disturbances going on on the DOGE side.

而在关税方面，当你不确定关税水平会如何时，就会推迟大量影响当前和未来增长的决策。

And then on the tariff side, when you're not sure what the level of tariff is gonna be, then you will postpone lots and lots of decisions that contribute to both current and future growth.

到目前为止，我们只是在口语上对当前经济可能发生的状况有一些感觉。

We have had so far, colloquially, vibes about what might be happening to the economy now.

我们还没有确切的数据，这在我看来是个挑战，因为确切的数据很可能不会太好。

We don't have yet hard data, and that seems to me to be a challenge because the hard data is gonna be kinda not very good.

所以，软数据——也就是调查数据——会率先发生变化。

So the soft data, which is survey data, turns first.

调查数据已经发生了显著的变化。

And the survey data has turned in a very significant manner.

它涉及人们对未来前景、就业以及收入下降的信心，以及人们对通胀上升的预期。

It has involved people's confidence about future prospects, about employment, and about income coming down, and people's expectation of inflation going up.

通常，软数据需要三到六个月才能反映在硬数据中。

Normally, it takes about three to six months for the soft data to be reflected in the hard data.

所以，我们现在正处于软数据明显疲软的第二个月。

So we are, call it, in month two of the soft data really weakening right now.

让我们回到我们出发时的起点，那就是特朗普总统对这个经济所做的事情，也同样在影响全球经济。

Let's get back to where we started on the way out here, and that is the idea that that what president Trump is doing to this economy is also being done to the global economy.

全球秩序正在以闪电般的速度被拆解，我和我想知道的是，当你与世界各地的人交流时——就像你经常做的那样，与那些具有重大影响力的人交流——他们对我们的所作所为有何感受？其次，这可能意味着什么？

The global order is being, disassembled at lightning speed, and I and I guess I wonder, as you talk to people around the world, as you do, in very significant positions of of influence, what is their sense of of, first of all, what we're doing, and and second of all, what it might mean?

我认为人们很犹豫。

I think people are hesitant.

他们感到担忧。

They're worried.

有一种观点认为，你不能用空无取代某物，因此他们希望更清楚地了解这一切之后我们将走向何方。

There's this whole notion of you cannot replace something with nothing, so they'd like to have greater clarity on where are we going after all this.

这种所谓的公平贸易体系是什么样子的？

What does this notion of a fairway trading system look like?

因此，他们对这段旅程和最终目的地都存在不确定性。

So they have uncertainties both about the journey and the destination.

穆罕默德·埃里安，他在剑桥大学女王学院。

Mohamed El-Erian, he's at, Queen's College Cambridge.

他在安联公司。

He's at Allianz.

他曾经在太平洋投资管理公司工作。

Used to be at PIMCO.

埃里安博士，感谢您抽出时间，先生。

Doctor El-Erian, thanks for your time, sir.

非常感谢。

I appreciate it.

谢谢。

Thank you.

今天在华尔街，交易员们显然认为，是的，一切都会好起来的。

On Wall Street today, traders were clearly of the, yeah, it's all gonna be fine.

有计划还是没计划？

Plan or no plan?

我们做核算的时候会提供详细数据。

We'll have the details when we do the numbers.

理论上，特朗普总统征收关税的全部目的，是为了提振美国制造业。

In theory, the whole point of president Trump's tariffs is to give American manufacturing a boost.

为此，我们今天从纽约联邦储备银行获得了纽约州制造业指数，这是对纽约州制造商关于需求、投入成本、就业和整体商业活动的调查。

And to that end, we got from the New York Federal Reserve today the Empire State Manufacturing Index, a survey of manufacturers in New York state about demand and input costs, employment, general business activities.

对吧？

Right?

三月份，该指数降至一年多来的最低水平。

In March, that index fell to its lowest level in more than a year.

市场观察员贾斯汀·霍得出了宏观经济学的结论。

Marketplaces Justin Ho draws the macroeconomic conclusions.

需求下降了。

Demand is lower.

根据纽约联邦储备银行的帝国州制造业指数，需求降低，制造商的库存积压，就业水平也在放缓，同时投入品和产成品的价格都在上涨。

Inventories are piling up on manufacturers' shelves, and employment levels are cooling off according to the Empire State Manufacturing Index, and prices on both inputs and finished products are up.

这两项指标都达到了近几年来的最高水平。

Both of those measures rose to their highest level in a couple of years.

富国银行的高级经济学家蒂姆·奎兰表示，这是关税已经造成摩擦的最新迹象。

Tim Quinlan, a senior economist with Wells Fargo, he says this is the latest indication that tariffs are already causing friction.

你上周看到消费者情绪指数时就已经察觉到了。

You saw it with, last week's consumer sentiment measures.

你从零售销售数据中也看到了，而纽约联储的这项指标也明显显示出疲软态势。

You saw it with retail sales numbers, and you're certainly seeing some softness in this gauge from the New York Fed.

纽约的制造业部门包含许多容易受到关税影响的行业。

New York's manufacturing sector includes a lot of industries that are vulnerable to tariffs.

拉塞尔·韦弗是康奈尔大学工业与劳动关系学院的研究主任。

Russell Weaver is research director with Cornell's School of Industrial and Labor Relations.

有一些公司，例如，正在生产风能和太阳能所需的零部件。

There are firms that, for example, are producing parts for wind energy, for solar energy.

我们看到这类产业增长了很多，但还有很多基础产业。

We've seen a growth in a lot of that, but there are also a lot of staples.

因此，纽约州仍然存在汽车和钢铁产业。

So we do still have auto and steel industries present in New York states.

有一个特别的因素可能拖累了这一指数。

One factor in particular might have weighed on the index.

本月早些时候，当纽约联邦储备银行进行调查时，加拿大曾威胁要对向纽约州及其他两个州出口的能源加征附加费，以回应特朗普政府的关税政策。

Earlier in the month, when the New York Fed conducted the survey, Canada had threatened to slap a surcharge on energy exports to New York and two other states in response to the Trump administration's tariffs.

理查德·沃格尔是法明代尔州立学院商学院的院长。

Richard Vogel is dean of the school of business at Farmingdale State College.

他说，尽管加拿大最终没有采取行动

He says even though Canada ultimately held off

仅仅是这种可能性的出现，就开始影响人们的思维和规划。

Just the possibility of it coming in starts to weigh in on people's, thought processes and their planning.

纽约州制造业指数也往往月与月之间波动较大。

The Empire State Manufacturing Index also tends to be volatile month to month.

但全国经济公司首席经济学家凯西·博斯扬奇克表示，该指数能让我们提前洞察全国制造业的动态。

But Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide, says the index can give us an early glimpse of what's happening to manufacturing across the country.

我回顾了过去十年的数据，看看相关性如何，结果表明，当纽约地区出现某些变化时，通常也反映了全国层面的情况。

I went back just the last ten years to see what's the correlation, and it does suggest that when we see some changes happening in the New York area, that tends to be reflective also at the national level.

博斯扬奇克表示，目前纽约州制造业指数显示出放缓趋势。

And Boschanczuk says right now, the Empire State Manufacturing Index is pointing to a slowdown.

我是市场频道的贾斯汀。

I'm Justin for Marketplace.

今天早上我们收到了2月零售销售报告，仅比上月上涨了百分之零点二，远低于预期。

We got the report on February retail sales this morning, up just two tenths percent from a month earlier, well shy of expectations.

鉴于近来消费者和企业主面临的种种经济压力，我们认为今天应该听听我们常驻零售业人士的看法。

And given all the economic of late among consumers and business owners alike, we figured we should hear from our retail regulars today.

这是第一个。

So here's the first one.

阿什莉·莫金斯，北达科他州法戈市Unglued店的老板。

Ashley Morkins, the owner of Unglued in Fargo, North Dakota.

我们二月的业绩是有史以来最好的。

We had our best February we've ever had.

二月比去年二月增长了7%，但一月下滑了，而三月的零售业务前景似乎会更慢。

We were up 7% than last February, but we were down in January, and March is shaping up to be slower on the retail side.

不过，我们三月的活动表现得更好。

However, our events in March are going better.

我们目前最大的挑战是资金问题，而不是其他任何事情。

Our biggest challenge right now is finances more than anything else.

因为2024年的结束没有达到我们预期的水平，零售业务也 definitely 没有实现我们的目标，去年我们最终亏损了。

Because 2024 didn't end as strong as we wanted it to, and we definitely didn't meet our goals on the retail side of things, we ended at a loss last year.

这种情况有时会发生，所以对我来说并不可怕，因为我们知道如何扭转局面。

This is something that happens sometimes, so it's not scary for me because we we know ways that we can come back with it.

我们至今还没有整体上调过价格。

We have not had to raise our prices overall yet.

我们寄售的创作者通常自己设定所有零售价格。

Our makers with our consignment typically do set all their retail prices.

不过，我一直在为此做准备。

I kind of am just preparing for that though.

许多创作者制作产品所用的原材料显然来自海外。

So many of the supplies that makers make their product with are definitely coming from overseas.

因此，我预计他们手工制品的原材料成本会上涨。

And so I do anticipate that their supply costs are gonna go up for their handmade work.

我确实感到怀疑并有些焦虑，因为随着人们对金钱越来越担忧，关税的威胁不断加剧，情况会变成什么样。

I am definitely, suspicious and have some anxiety about what it's gonna look like as, things keep getting people more worried about their money, with the threat of tariffs.

所以我非常好奇，这是否意味着人们会更谨慎地花钱，试图储蓄，为未来做打算，而这又会对零售店产生什么影响。

And so I'm super curious if that means that people are gonna be holding their money more and trying to save it, looking ahead to the future and what will that mean for a retail store.

确实如此？

What indeed?

那是艾什莉·莫金。

Ashley Morkin there.

Unglued 是她的店铺。

Unglued is her shop.

她所在的城市是北达科他州的法戈。

Fargo, North Dakota is her city.

几分钟后是第二位零售商。

Retailer number two in a couple of minutes.

即将登场。

Coming up.

我们正尽力避免向客户做出过度承诺。

We're doing our best to avoid overpromising to our customers.

少承诺，多交付。

Underpromise and overdeliver.

就是这样。

That's the way.

对吧？

Right?

不过首先，我们来看一下数据。

First, though, let's do the numbers.

道琼斯工业指数今天上涨了353点。

Dow Industrial's up three fifty three today.

涨幅为百分之零点九，从41,000到841。

That's nine tenths percent, 41,000 to 841.

纳斯达克指数上涨了54点，百分之零点三，从17,000到808。

Then Nasdaq climbed 54 points, three tenths percent, 17,000 to 808.

标普500指数增加了36点，约百分之零点六，从56,75到56,75。

S and P 500 added 36 points, about six tenths percent, fifty six and seventy five.

在圣帕特里克节这一天，让我们关注一些与翡翠之岛有关的股票。

On this Saint Patrick's Day, let's check-in with some stocks with connections to the Emerald Isles.

我们开始吧？

Shall we?

美敦力公司自2015年收购科维登后，法律总部设在爱尔兰戈尔韦，今日上涨了百分之零点三。

Medtronic, which has its legal headquarters in Galway, Ireland since acquiring Covideon in 2015, added three tenths percent.

总部位于都柏林的埃森哲公司，专注于信息技术服务和管理咨询，今日上涨了百分之二点二。

Dublin based Accenture, which specializes in IT services and management consulting, enlarged two and two tenths percent.

今天，这家爱尔兰裔美国公司斯穆菲特韦斯特洛克，主营纸板和纸制包装，今日上涨了2.2%。

Today, Smurfit WestRock, that's an Irish American company that makes cardboard and paper packaging printed up 2.2% today.

根据美国人口普查数据，如果你感兴趣的话，美国有三千一百五十万爱尔兰裔人口，占总人口的9.5%。

According to The US census, should you be curious, there are 31 and a half million people of Irish descent in The United States, 9.5% of the entire population.

债券价格上涨了。

Bond prices went up.

十年期国债收益率下跌至4.3%。

Yield on the ten year t note fell to 4.3 percent.

你正在收听《市场》。

You're listening to marketplace.

这里是《市场》。

This is Marketplace.

我是凯·里兹达尔。

I'm Kai Rizdal.

今天节目一开始，穆罕默德·埃尔-埃里安谈到了软数据与硬数据、感觉与可验证的统计数据之间的区别。

Mohamed El-Erian was talking up at the top of the program today about soft data versus hard data, vibes versus verifiable statistics.

理解我们所获得的关于经济的所有硬数据几乎都是所谓的滞后指标，这一点非常重要。

It's important to understand that virtually all the hard data we get about this economy are what are called lagging indicators.

它们告诉我们过去发生了什么，而不是未来将要发生什么。

They tell us what happened, not what's going to happen.

正如埃尔里安医生所说，要等到几个月后，这些硬数据才会告诉我们经济中实际发生了什么。

So as doctor Ehlerian said, it's going to be a couple of months before that hard data tells us what's been going on in this economy.

但几周前发布的二月就业报告中，作为硬数据，有一项指标似乎预示着一些趋势。

But in the February jobs report that we got a couple of weeks ago, hard data, remember, there was a line item that seems to be a bit of foreshadowing.

二月，从事多份工作的人数达到历史最高水平，接近900万人，其中约60%的人从事传统的副业，即全职工作之余再兼一份兼职。

The number of people working more than one job hit an all time high in February, almost 9,000,000 people, and about 60% of them are doing the traditional moonlighting thing, working full time with a part time gig in their off hours.

其他人则拼凑多个兼职工作，以维持生计。

Others are stringing together multiple part time jobs trying to get by.

市场节目的马特·莱文今天为我们报道副业话题。

Marketplace's Matt Levin is on the side hustle beat for us today.

阿尼卡·塞德曼·加蒂去年春天开始在纽约市的一家快闪餐厅做兼职。

Anika Seidman Gatti started picking up shifts last spring for a pop up restaurant in New York City.

白天，她是纽约一所大学的学生心理治疗师。

By day, she's a therapist for students at a New York college.

她一直习惯于同时打多份工，这从她二十多岁就开始了。

She's used to working multiple jobs, dated for most of her twenties.

但最近一个周末，她从周四到周六连续做服务员，有时工作到午夜之后。

But after a recent weekend working as a server from Thursday through Saturday with shifts that sometimes ended after midnight

现在我三十多岁了，感觉有点不一样。

Now I'm in my mid thirties, so it feels a little different.

身体真的很累。

The body's very tired.

累。

Tired.

当然，像那样度过一个周末后，周日绝对不想从沙发上爬起来。

Definitely, not not getting up off the couch on Sunday after after a weekend like that.

西蒙·加蒂36岁，她的心理咨询工作是全职，每周五天，收入大约为100美元。

Simon Gatti is 36 and makes about a $100 at her counseling job, which is full time, five days a week.

上个月她在那家餐厅一个周末赚了1100美元，这笔钱帮她应付了2000美元的房租、一些长期存在的信用卡债务，以及最近重新开始的学生贷款还款。

The $1,100 she made from one weekend at that restaurant last month came in handy between her $2,000 rent and some long standing credit card debt and recently resumed student loan payments.

经济很紧张。

Money is tight.

当看到月底手头剩的钱比以前少的时候，知道还能有一点额外收入，确实感觉好很多。

When it comes to looking at at the end of the month how much money I have when that number is smaller than it used to be, then, it definitely feels better to know that there's a little bit of extra money coming in.

根据劳工统计局的数据，今年二月，约有5.4%的美国工人拥有第二份工作。

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, about 5.4% of all US workers in February had a second job.

但由于政府只询问了人们在过去一周是否有多个工作，因此实际上漏掉了许多兼职者。

But because the government only asked if someone had multiple jobs in the past week, it's actually missing a lot of moonlighters.

这5.5%只是冰山一角。

This five and a half percent is just the tip of the iceberg.

隆尼·戈尔登是宾夕法尼亚州立大学的经济学家。

Lonnie Golden is an economist at Penn State.

根据他2023年的研究

According to his research in 2023

超过20%的劳动者在过去六个月里从事过额外的工作。

Over 20% of workers, are working additional jobs, at least in the last six months.

戈尔登表示，过去只有在经济衰退时，才会出现从事多份工作的人数激增。

Golden says it used to be that it took a recession to spike the number of people holding multiple jobs.

但过去十五年左右，随着优步、TaskRabbit以及经济的数字化零工化，副业现在已经变得很普遍。

But over the last fifteen years or so with Uber and TaskRabbit and the digital gigification of the economy, side hustles are now just common.

借助平台技术，人们更容易接受额外的工作，尤其是专业人士，但也包括非专业人士。

With platform technology, it's easier for people to take on additional jobs, particularly professionals, but nonprofessionals as well.

经济与政策研究中心的经济学家迪恩·贝克表示，现在判断劳动力市场疲软是否导致更多人从事多份工作还为时过早。

Economist Dean Baker at the Center for Economic and Policy Research says it's too early to say whether a weakening labor market is causing more people to work multiple jobs.

但考虑到过去几个月的经济不确定性，有些人寻求备选方案是可以理解的。

But given the economic uncertainty of the past few months, it makes sense some are exploring backup options.

如果人们不确定自己的主要工作是否能保住，谨慎行事是完全可以理解的。

People are reasonably being cautious if they aren't sure that their main job's gonna be there.

备份计划是斯特菲·克劳开始兼职做房地产经纪人的重要原因。

A backup plan is a big reason Stephanie Crow started moonlighting as a realtor.

她全职担任萨克拉门托一家律师事务所的办公室和设施经理。

She works full time as an office and facilities manager for a Sacramento law firm.

我见过很多没有安全网的人，你知道，这就让人不禁想，等等。

I've seen a lot of people who don't have a parachute, you know, and it's just kind of like, wait a second.

我有吗？

Do I have that?

我没事吧？

Am I okay?

克劳和她的丈夫都从事多份工作，合起来年收入大约14万美元。

Both Crowe and her husband work multiple jobs and collectively make a $140 or so a year.

他们家里有两个青少年孩子。

They have two teenage children in the house.

2020年她丈夫心脏病发作后，克劳开始学习房地产相关课程。

When her husband had a heart attack in 2020, Crowe started taking real estate classes.

房地产这份工作让她感觉更有保障，额外的收入也很不错。

The realtor job makes her feel more secure, and the extra income's nice.

她估计过去几年里自己赚了大约5万美元。

She figures she's made about $50 over the last couple years.

这帮助很大。

It helps a lot.

你知道，能够不用计算器就去买 groceries，这真是莫大的福气。

You know, just being able to go buy groceries without a calculator, I mean, that's a huge blessing.

克劳说，她最终希望全职从事房屋买卖工作。

Crow says eventually she'd like to help buy and sell houses full time.

有时候，你的副业会变成你的正职。

Sometimes your side hustle can turn into your regular job.

我是马特·莱文，来自《市场》。

I'm Matt Levin for Marketplace.

虽然我们今天并没有计划在节目中如此强调氛围的变化，但在这里的第二任特朗普政府时期，能源和环境中的氛围转变确实是正在发生的事实。

While we didn't actually plan to be so vibe heavy on the program today, changing vibes are absolutely what are at play in energy and environment here in the second Trump administration.

巴黎气候协定已经不复存在。

Gone are the Paris Climate Accords.

取而代之的是‘钻吧，宝贝，钻吧’。

In is Drill Baby Drill.

但这是一个你当然可以对抗市场趋势的故事，因为事实是，随着全球能源需求不断上升，人类将需要从各个来源获取能源。

But this is one of those, sure, you can fight the market if you want stories, because the fact of the matter is that with global energy demand on the rise, humanity is gonna need energy from everywhere.

Marketplace 的伊丽莎白·特罗瓦尔带来了这个报道。

Marketplace's Elizabeth Troval has that one.

路易斯安那州立大学的格雷格·厄普顿表示，能源来源的多样化是保持价格稳定的重要原因。

Price stability is a big reason to rely on a variety of energy sources, says Greg Upton with LSU.

即使目前天然气是最具成本效益的新型发电来源，但如果你全面依赖任何一种能源——包括天然气——其风险在于，这种商品的价格当然会波动。

Even if natural gas right now is the least cost kind of new generation source, the cost to doing that, if you go all in on any source, and this includes natural gas, is that, of course, the price of that commodity can fluctuate.

所以如果天然气价格飙升

So if natural gas prices spike

这可能导致电价大幅上涨。

This could lead to really large increases in electricity prices.

但如果发生这种情况，美国可以转向其他能源，比如太阳能、风能、煤炭、核能和地热能。

But The US can turn to other energy sources if that happens, like solar, wind, coal, nuclear, and geothermal.

而且，价格比总统更有可能促使某些能源上线或下线。

And prices are actually more likely than a president to bring certain energy sources off or online.

丹尼尔·雷米就职于非营利组织‘未来资源’。

Daniel Ramey is with the nonprofit Resources for the Future.

煤炭的生产和消费在美国大幅下降，这主要是因为我们以极低的成本生产天然气。

Coal production and consumption has declined dramatically in The United States, and that's primarily because we're producing natural gas at a very low cost.

因此，他认为在特朗普政府时期，煤炭将继续衰退。

Which is why he believes coal will continue to decline under the Trump administration.

由于天然气和可再生能源的竞争，可再生能源几乎肯定会持续增长。

Because of the competition from natural gas in renewables, renewables are almost certainly to keep growing.

这些技术在未来四年里，在整体能源格局中会发生显著变化吗？

Will those technologies shift dramatically from today to four years from now in the overall energy picture?

这是一个巨大的转变。

It's a big shift.

可能不会有太大变化。

Likely not too much.

摩根·巴齐隆来自科罗拉多矿业学院。

Morgan Bazillion is with the Colorado School of Mines.

他说，不仅能源结构可能保持现状，一些排放减缓和监测措施也将如此。

He says it's not just the energy mix that is likely to stay the course, so will some emissions mitigation and monitoring.

如果他们要将产品卖给一家全球公司，而这家公司再将其运往液化天然气设施，那么这家公司会希望确保其供应链尽可能低排放且高效。

If they're going to sell their product to a global company that then ships it to LNG, that company wants to ensure that their supply chain is as low emissions and efficient as possible.

随着美国向海外出口更多液化天然气，从事出口的公司将持续面临国际标准的约束。

As The US pushes more of its LNG or liquefied natural gas abroad, the companies that do the exporting will continue to be held to international standards.

我是伊丽莎白·特罗瓦尔，来自《市场》。

I'm Elizabeth Troval for Marketplace.

现在是第二家零售商，科琳娜·布鲁斯，位于华盛顿州西雅图的Noir Luxe Candle Bar的老板。

Retailer number two now, Colina Bruce, owner of Noir Luxe Candle Bar up in Seattle, Washington.

这通常是我们的淡季，但说实话，我们仍然看到相当多的活动。

So this is typically what we would consider to be our slow season, but, honestly, we're still seeing a really good amount of activity.

总的来说，这个月的销售额比去年同期增长了约10%，这让我们非常兴奋。

Overall, our sales are up about 10% this month compared to this time last year, so that's super exciting for us.

我们目前的库存状况有些困难。

Our inventory situation is a bit challenging right now.

我们的许多供应商都缺货，这让我们非常沮丧。

Many of our suppliers are back stocked, which has been super frustrating.

但我们正在尽力避免向客户做出过度承诺。

But we're doing our best to avoid over promising to our customers.

当我们的供应商向我们超额销售，而我们不得不等待货物到达时，这确实有点棘手。

And that can kind of be tough when our suppliers oversell something to us and we end up having to wait for it to arrive.

我们知道，如今人们的消费更加谨慎了。

We know that people are being much more intentional with their spending these days.

因此，我们专注于通过体验创造更多价值，并努力提供独特的产品。

So we're just focusing on creating more value through our experiences and trying to offer unique products.

我们最近接到一个为女性峰会制作健康礼盒的订单，之前我们也做过健康礼盒，但这次我们必须从所有单品中精心挑选，而且订单量很大，这让我们开始思考是否可以提供更多健康套装，甚至考虑推出订阅盒子服务。

We recently got a bid to do a wellness box for a women's summit which we had, we've done wellness boxes before but in this particular instance, we had to curate the box from all of the items and it was a large order and so that kind of got our wheels going about things like you know offering more wellness sets or even thinking about subscription boxes.

我认为在积极规划和保持灵活、随时准备应变之间找到平衡很重要，同时也要愿意创新，尝试新事物。

I think it's important to strike a balance between like being proactive and planful and then just staying agile and being ready to adapt, to things and being and being willing to be innovative and try new things.

科莉娜·布鲁斯，Nora Luxe 蜡烛吧的老板，她住在西雅图。

Colina Bruce, the owner of Nora Luxe Candle Bar, she's in Seattle.

今天临走前的最后一条信息：债券市场再次能告诉你很多关于当前局势的信息。

This final note on the way out today in which once again the bond market can tell you a whole lot about what's going on.

我在彭博社看到，今年到目前为止，高校发行的市政债券比2024年同期增长了40%以上。

Saw this on Bloomberg that municipal bond sales by colleges and universities are up more than 40% so far this year compared to the same period in 2024.

正如你在其他新闻中看到的，高校正受到特朗普政府的针对，因此正试图在税收政策或资金拨款可能发生变化之前筹集资金。

Colleges, as you have probably seen elsewhere in your news feeds, are being targeted by the Trump administration and so are looking to secure financing ahead of possible changes in tax policy or funding cancellations.

今年到目前为止，这些债券的销售额已达100亿美元，超过了2017年创下的纪录。

$10,000,000,000 in those bond sales so far this year, topping the mark set in 2017.

而且，巧合的是，这恰好是特朗普总统任期开始之际。

Also, as it happens, the beginning of a Trump presidency.

我们的日常制作团队包括安迪·科宾、尼古拉斯·吉约姆、玛丽亚·霍伦霍斯特、伊鲁·埃克巴诺比、莎拉·利森、肖恩·麦肯西和索菲亚·托伦齐奥。

Our daily production team includes Andy Corbin, Nicholas Guillaume, Maria Hollenhorst, Iru Ekbanobi, Sarah Liesen, Sean McHenry, and Sofia Torenzio.

我是凯·里斯代尔。

I'm Kai Risdale.

我们明天再见，各位。

We will see you tomorrow, everybody.

现在是晚上8点。

This is 8PM.

嗨。

Hey.

我是大卫·布隆卡乔。

David Broncaccio here.

希望你一切安好，护照也已更新，因为今年秋天我将组织一次意大利之旅，诚邀你参加。

I hope you're well and that your passport is up to date because I am hosting a trip to Italy this fall, and you, you are invited.

入住世界级的托斯卡纳别墅，步入美第奇家族的世界——这个强大家族的影响力和权力促成了文艺复兴以及我们至今仍颂扬的艺术，更不用说银行业了。

Stay at a world class Tuscan Villa and step into the world of the Medici, the formidable family whose influence and power helped give rise to the Renaissance and the art we still celebrate today, not to mention the banking system.

我们将参观世界上最早的银行，在蒙特卡蒂尼的温泉中游泳，并欣赏乌菲兹美术馆的艺术品。

We're gonna visit the world's oldest bank, swim in the thermal spa waters in Montecatini, and take in the art of the Uffizi.

所有这些之后，我们将通过更美好的餐食和品酒，深入探讨这些经历背后的意义。

All of this, and then we'll try to put it all into context with great conversation over even better meals and wine tasting.

请加入我，并请记住这一点。

Please join me and know this.

参与这次旅行将为公共媒体提供重要支持。

Buying into this trip will provide essential support for public media.

欲了解今年秋天托斯卡纳之旅的更多详情，请访问 marketplace.org/travel 预订您的席位。

Discover more about this fall's Tuscany adventure at marketplace.org/travel to reserve your spot today.

网址是 marketplace.org/travel。

That's marketplace.org/travel.