价内投资：不与独裁者投资，获得更好回报！

我是汉娜·弗莱。

I'm Hannah Fry.

随着我们越来越多地在生活和商业的各个方面依赖人工智能，我致力于探索如何构建人工智能所需的互联网。

And as we rely more and more on artificial intelligence in every facet of our lives and businesses, I'm on a mission to find out how we can build the Internet that AI needs.

更多内容请收听后续节目。

Learn more later in the podcast.

彭博音频工作室，播客、广播、新闻。

Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news.

嗯。

Yeah.

自由。

Freedom.

自由。

Freedom.

世界上有许多存在问题的国家。

There are many problematic countries on the world stage.

这些国家的政治行为不仅恶劣，而且对您的投资资金也不健康。

Not only are their political behaviors bad, but they're also unhealthy for your investment dollars.

然而，大多数新兴市场指数无论这些国家的政治活动如何，都会广泛投资于所有这些国家。

Most emerging market indexes, however, invest broadly across all of these countries regardless of their political activity.

如果能有一种方法避免专制政权、独裁者以及其他破坏您投资资本的不良行为者就好了。

If only there was a way to avoid authoritarian regimes, dictators and other bad actors that destroy your investing capital.

事实证明，确实有一只基金可以做到这一点。

As it turns out, there's a fund to do just that.

投资新兴市场，却不把资金导向地球上最糟糕的国家。

Investing in emerging markets without steering money to the worst countries on the planet.

我是巴里·里特尔茨，今天《金钱之间》这期节目，我们将讨论如何避开那些对您的财富构成威胁的国家。

I'm Barry Rithultz and on today's edition of At the Money, we're going to discuss how to avoid those countries that are dangerous to your wealth.

为了帮助我们梳理这一切及其对您投资组合的意义，让我们请来珀斯·托尔。

To help us unpack all of this and what it means for your portfolio, let's bring in Perth Toll.

她是生命与自由指数的创始人，也是自由100新兴市场指数ETF（代码FRDM）的创建者。

She is the founder of the Life and Liberty indexes and the creator of the Freedom 100 EM index ETF symbol FRDM.

她被《财富管理》杂志评为2020年值得关注的十人之一，并被《商业内幕》评为2021年改变商业的百人之一。

She was named one of 10 to watch in 2020 by Wealth Management Magazine and one of the 100 people transforming business by Business Insider in 2021.

她的Freedom 100 EM指数ETF目前管理资产超过20亿美元，并在过去一、二、三年内均跑赢标普500指数。

Her Freedom one hundred EM Index ETF now manages over $2,000,000,000 and has beaten the S and P five hundred over one, two and three years.

2025年，Freedom基金上涨了67%，而标普500指数仅上涨了近18%。

In 2025, Freedom was up 67% versus the S and P five hundred up almost 18%.

所以，Perth，我们先从基本概念说起。

So Perth, let's just start with the basic concept.

为什么要把新兴市场公司按照‘自由’这一标准进行筛选？

Why screen emerging market companies for a concept like freedom?

排除独裁者、专制者和其他不良行为者，会对市场表现产生什么影响？

How does screening out dictators, authoritarians and other bad actors impact market performance?

是的，谢谢Barry。

Yeah, thanks Barry.

我认为我们试图解决的问题是，以前新兴市场投资者无法在实现多元化配置的同时，避免资金流入专制国家。

So I think the problem we're trying to solve here is that emerging markets investors previously did not have a way to get a diversified emerging markets allocation without funneling money to autocracies.

传统上，指数的权重是按市值计算的。

So traditionally, the way indices are weighted is by market cap.

因此，在新兴市场中，像中国、俄罗斯和沙特阿拉伯这样的最大专制国家历来获得了最大的权重。

And so the largest autocracies in the emerging market space like China, Russia and Saudi Arabia historically has gotten the biggest weights.

在战争爆发前，这三个国家都在大多数新兴市场指数的前十名之列；在新冠疫情高峰期，中国占MSCI新兴市场指数的41%。

Those three countries prior to the war were all in the top 10 of most EM indices during the height of COVID, China was 41% of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index.

而现在，这一比例仍然接近30%。

And now it is still upwards of close to 30%.

因此，这些大型专制国家在新兴市场指数中占据了非常大的权重。

So some of these large autocracies get a very large weight in the emerging markets indices.

所以我们希望通过‘自由权重’而非市值权重来解决这个问题。

And so that's really the problem that we're trying to solve by freedom waiting instead of market cap waiting.

我对自由指数和ETF的起源故事非常感兴趣。

I'm really fascinated by the origin story of the Freedom Index and the ETF.

是什么让你觉得传统的新兴市场基准已经失效了？

What made you decide traditional emerging market benchmarks were broken?

是的，我在中国和美国都长大过。

Yeah, so I grew up in both China and The US.

我出生在北京，九岁时去了美国。

I was born in Beijing and I came to The US when I was nine.

大学毕业后，我在香港工作了一年左右。

And then I worked in Hong Kong after college for about a year.

在那里，我看到了美国市场、当时（2004年）的香港市场和中国大陆市场之间的差异，意识到政策如何影响一个社会和市场的未来。

And there saw the difference between The US market, the Hong Kong market at the time, this was 2004 and the mainland Chinese market and saw that policies impacted the future of a society and the future of markets.

其中一项让我印象深刻的是我出生和成长时中国实行的计划生育政策。

One policy that really struck me was the one child policy under which I was born and grew up in China.

这项政策造成了当今世界最严重的人口危机。

And that policy has caused the biggest demographic crisis in the world today.

而且我们这一生可能都无法从这场危机中恢复。

And probably we won't recover from that in our lifetimes.

因此，这让我意识到，国家层面的治理确实会对社会和市场产生影响。

So that's one of the things that made me realize that governance on the country level actually has an impact on society and markets.

但当我回到美国后，我在富达公司做了十年的财务顾问。

But also coming back to The US, I worked at Fidelity for ten years as a financial advisor.

我有一些位于洛杉矶和休斯顿的客户说，我不想，比如，我有一个俄罗斯客户说，我不想投资俄罗斯，因为那相当于资助恐怖主义。

And I had clients in the LA and Houston markets who said, I don't wanna, for example, I had a Russian client that said, I don't wanna invest in Russia because it's like funding terrorism.

那是2014年的事。

And that was in 2014.

所以你可以看到，他当时有多有远见。

So you can see how prescient that was.

这正是我想为资产配置者提供一种方式的原因——让他们始终能配置新兴市场，却不资助专制政权，而大多数投资者本无意如此。

And this is kind of why I wanted to have a way for allocators to always have that emerging markets allocation without funding autocracies, which is usually not the intention of most investors.

非常有趣。

Really interesting.

所以你和一些合作伙伴一起创建了这个自由指数，能为我们听众定义一下市场意义上的‘自由’吗？

So you created this freedom index with some of your partners, define freedom for our audience in market terms.

当我们说这是一个‘自由加权’投资组合，而不是‘市值加权’投资组合时，具体衡量的是什么？

When we say this is a freedom weighted portfolio as opposed to a market cap weighted portfolio, what exactly is being measured?

这如何转化为一个指数？

How does that translate into an index?

是的，首先我们需要那些关于自由的量化指标。

Yeah, so the first thing is we'd need those quantitative metrics for freedom.

因此，我们使用了由卡托研究所和弗雷泽研究所发布的第三方自由指数和数据集。

And so we use a third party index and dataset called the Human Freedom Index and Dataset by the CATO Institute and the Fraser Institute.

这两个智库完全由私人资金支持。

And these are two think tanks that are completely privately funded.

它们不接受任何政府资金，甚至不接受其总部所在的美国或加拿大政府的资金。

They don't take any government money, not even from The US or Canadian governments where they're based.

它们考察了87个不同的自由变量。

And they look at 87 different variables for freedom.

这些变量包括公民自由、政治自由和经济自由。

And that includes things like civil freedoms, includes political freedoms and economic freedoms.

因此，你同时关注个人自由和经济自由，这对我而言很重要，因为我来自一个在这两方面都存在问题的国家。

So you're looking at both personal and economic freedoms, which was important to me coming from a country that had issues with both.

比如恐怖主义、人口贩卖、酷刑等属于公民自由类别，言论自由、媒体表达、民事诉讼程序、刑事诉讼程序则属于政治自由类别。

Things like terrorism, trafficking, torture are like in the civil freedoms category, freedom of speech, media expression, civil procedure, criminal procedure, like political freedom category.

而经济自由则是我们更为熟悉的领域，比如税收、商业法规、私有财产权、法治、货币政策的稳健性、国际贸易自由——自由贸易程度越高越好，以及持有银行账户等方面的自由。

And then economic freedoms are things we're all more familiar with, like taxation, business regulations, private property rights, rule of law, soundness of monetary policy, freedom to trade internationally, the higher the free trade, the better, and the freedom to hold off from bank accounts and so forth.

所有这些因素加在一起，87个不同的变量和子变量综合成一个国家综合评分，我们将其作为方法论的主要输入依据。

So all of these things added together, 87 different variables and sub variables combined into the composite country score, which we use as the main input into our methodology.

基于这个由第三方评估的自由度国家评分，我们将其转化为国家权重和配置比例，并据此进行投资。

So with that country score that measures freedom by a third party, we turn that into country weights and allocations and then invest accordingly.

自由度高的国家获得更高权重，自由度评分低的国家权重较低，而表现最差的国家会在自由度加权过程中自动被排除。

The higher freedom countries get a higher weight, the lower freedom scoring countries get a lower weight and the worst offenders are automatically excluded as part of the freedom waiting process.

那么24个新兴市场国家中，你们会考察多少家公司，最终有多少家能进入指数？

So 24 emerging market countries, how many companies do you look at and then how many end up in the index?

在指数中，一旦经过自由度评分，我猜它也是按市值加权的吧？

And in the index, once it's freedom scored, I'm assuming it's also market cap weighted.

对吗？

Is that right?

所以在国家层面，它是100%按自由度加权的。

So on the country level, it is a 100% freedom weighted.

不过在我们开始进行自由度加权之前，我们确实会对市场规模和流动性进行筛选。

Before we embark on freedom weighting though, we do have a screen for market size and liquidity.

因此，规模过小或流动性不足的市场不属于合格范围。

So markets that are too small or too illiquid are not part of the eligible universe.

所以我们最初有24个国家的候选范围，经过筛选后大约剩下18个合格国家，比如捷克共和国虽然自由度很高，但规模不够大。

So we do have a 24 country initial universe and then about an 18 country eligible universe because countries like Czech Republic, for example, are very free, but not big enough.

秘鲁自由度也很高，但流动性不足。

Peru, very free, but not liquid enough.

所以这些国家不会纳入自由度加权过程。

So those are not included in the freedom waiting process.

完成这个资格筛选流程后，大约剩下18个国家，这些国家完全按照自由度进行加权。

So about 18 countries are left once you have that eligibility process down, and those are a 100% freedom weighted with it.

因此，自由度最高的国家权重也最高。

So the highest freedom countries have the highest weight.

该方法的运作方式是，你必须在那18个同类国家中得分高于平均水平才能被纳入。

And the way the methodology works is that you have to be above average among those 18 peer countries in your score to be included.

因此，我们提供的是符合条件国家中最具自由度的新兴市场国家。

So we are providing freest emerging market countries in the eligible universe.

有一些国家的得分非常接近临界线，每年都会进出名单。

There are some very borderline countries that go in and out every year.

给我们举些例子。

Give us some examples.

印度就是一个处于临界线的国家。

So India is a borderline country.

印度的得分在18个同类国家中恰好处于平均水平。

The score for India is just about average among all the 18 country peers.

这包括像台湾、智利、波兰、韩国这样较自由的国家，以及像中国、沙特阿拉伯、埃及、土耳其这样自由度较低的国家。

So this is including countries like Taiwan, Chile, Poland, South Korea on the freer side, and then countries like China, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey on the less free side.

因此，印度正好处于中间位置。

So India is about right in the middle.

所以有时会入选，有时又会被排除。

And so sometimes it's in and sometimes it's out.

真的很有趣。

Really intriguing.

一旦有了这个国家列表，你们如何从这些被青睐的前九或前十个国家中的所有公司中筛选，来构建指数？指数中包含多少家公司？

And then once you have this list of countries, how do you screen through all of those companies within the favored top nine, top 10 countries to put together the index and how many companies go into the index?

是的，一旦我们确定了每个国家的自由度加权权重，就会选取市值最大、流动性最强的10家成分公司。

Yeah, so once we have the freedom weighted country weights within each country, we take the 10 largest, most liquid constituents.

这些公司的权重在其自由度加权的国家权重基础上按市值加权计算。

And those are market capitalization weighted within their freedom weighted country weights.

我们会排除国有企业，这是为了将经济自由的主题贯穿始终。

We do exclude state owned enterprises, and that's just to bring the economic freedom theme all the way through.

政府对私人市场的干预越少越好。

So the less government interference in private markets, the better.

在证券层面，我们只做这一项筛选。

And that's the only thing we do on the security level.

所以我们想真正地将自由因素单独分离出来。

So we wanted to really isolate the freedom factor.

这个产品主要采用自上而下的国家层面策略。

Mostly a top down country level strategy on this product.

所以最初吸引我的是中国。

So what first attracted me to this has been China.

你显然在中国长大，在香港工作过，对这方面有深入的见解。

And obviously you grew up in China, you worked in Hong Kong, you have a whole lot of insight into this.

每当我跟投资者讨论中国时，他们听到我说‘自1995年以来的三十年里，中国市场的表现实际上下跌了几个百分点’时，总是感到震惊。

Whenever I discuss China with investors, they're always shocked when I say, hey, you know, over the past thirty years since 1995, China's markets essentially down a couple of digits.

如果你把股息的总回报也算上，涨幅大约是100%。

If you want to include total return in dividends, it's up about 100%.

同一时期，标普500指数的总回报率则上涨了2700%。

The total return for the S and P five hundred over the same period is plus 2700%.

对中国而言，对西方投资者来说，这一直是个相当糟糕的投资。

China has turned out to be a fairly terrible investment for Western investors.

你认为为什么中国表现得如此落后？

Why do you think China has been such a laggard?

投资中国公司的主要问题是这些公司必须把国家利益放在首位。

So the main problem with investing in Chinese companies is that these companies that have to put state interests first.

因此它们不会通过为客户提供最佳价值来追求最大成功。

So they are not gonna try to succeed the most by providing the best value for their clients.

它们会试图讨好政府。

They're going to be trying to carry favor with the government.

当利益如此分化时，投资者实际上是在补贴优先考虑国家利益的成本。

So when your interests are divided like that, investors are subsidizing the cost of putting the state's interests first.

尤其在中国，国家利益可能与美国的利益或外国投资者的整体利益相矛盾。

And as we know with China specifically, the state's interest may be in contradiction with American interests or interests of foreign investors in general.

以其中一些公司为例，比如腾讯，它有一个叫微信的应用。

So some of these companies, for example, Tencent, right, has an app called WeChat.

早在所有关于维吾尔族的新闻爆出时，众所周知政府利用微信来打压异见人士和维吾尔族人口。

And it was well known back in the day when all the Uighur news was coming out that the government was using WeChat to crack down on dissidents and on the Uighur population.

当然，微信必须将所有政府想要的数据交给政府，因为他们自身的商业利益和其他利益相关者的利益并非首要，政府的利益才是第一位的。

Of course, WeChat has to give all the data over to the government that they want because their own business interests and other interests of their stakeholders do not come first, but the government's interests come first.

因此，在投资于这样一个所有公司都更受国家利益而非自身利益主导的国家时，这些就是其中的风险。

So these are kind of the dangers of investing in a country where all the companies are more subject to the state's interest than their own.

当我们审视像TikTok这样的应用时，问题在于中国的国家监控、安全机构及其类似CIA的版本，在多大程度上参与追踪、管理和操纵美国青少年所看到的内容。

And when we look at an app like TikTok, the question is how involved is China's state surveillance, security and their version of the CIA tracking, managing, manipulating what US teenagers see.

这确实是中国公司面临的一个问题，不是吗？

Is really an issue with Chinese companies, isn't it?

确实如此，但TikTok完全是另一个问题，它涉及对外国利益和外国政府的干预。

It is, but TikTok is a whole separate issue altogether where you're talking about interference in foreign interests and foreign governments.

所以，是的，那是一个完全不同的问题，我们甚至没有在这个指数中讨论，但绝对地，独裁和威权主义在全球化的世界中具有传染性，自由也是如此。

And so, yeah, that's a totally different issue that we don't even address in this index, but absolutely dictatorship and authoritarianism is in a globalized world is contagious, but so is freedom.

因此我们相信，人们越投资于自由，尤其是在金融界，在华尔街，我们就处于特权和权力的位置。

And so we believe that the more people invest in freedom, especially here in the finance world, on Wall Street, we are in a position of privilege and power.

能够引导资产，无论是你自己的资产还是他人的资产，这是一种权力的位置。

It's a position of power to be able to direct assets, whether it's your own assets or other people's assets.

在新兴市场投资中，没有中立可言。

And in emerging markets investing, there is no neutral.

你要么将资产用于善事，不幸的是，有时则用于作恶。

You're either directing assets for good or in some cases for evil, unfortunately.

因此，我们不希望处于将资产导向助长专制主义的位置。

And so we don't wanna be in the position of directing assets to enable more authoritarianism.

如果我们能够，我们希望置身于推动世界自由的地方。

And if we can, we want to be in the places that are promoting freedom in the world.

让我们谈谈另一个专制统治的国家。

So let's talk a little bit about another country where authoritarianism rules.

俄罗斯，我怀疑很多人是在俄罗斯入侵乌克兰、其股票暴跌至零时，首次认识到你们对新兴市场投资方法的可取之处。

Russia, I suspect a lot of people first recognized the merit of your approach to emerging market investing when Russia invaded Ukraine and effectively their stocks plummeted to zero.

如果你持有俄罗斯股票，它们在每个人的资产组合中几乎都被减记为零。

If you are holding Russian stocks, they pretty much got marked down to nothing in everybody's portfolio.

请告诉我们一些关于俄罗斯在自由指数中的表现以及该国发生了什么？

Tell us a little bit about how Russia has fared in the Freedom Index and what's been going on in that country?

是的，俄罗斯从未被列入FRDM指数。

Yeah, so Russia has never been an included country in the FRDM Index.

当俄罗斯入侵乌克兰时，我们是唯一一个因这一原因未包含俄罗斯的新兴市场指数。

And when Russia invaded Ukraine, we were the only emerging markets index that did not have Russia in it for this particular reason.

他们的市场跌至零，没人预料到这一点。

And their market went to zero, no one saw that coming.

因此，当时这根本不可能被纳入价格预期之中。

So this was definitely not something that was priced in at the time as a possibility.

实际上，俄罗斯曾是MSCI和其他新兴市场指数的前十大国家持仓之一。

It was actually in the top 10 country holdings in the MSCI and indices and emerging markets indices.

是的，当时投资者受到了沉重打击。

Yeah, investors got hit quite hard during that time.

正是在那时，据我回忆，大多数投资者才意识到威权主义风险。

And that was the time when, as I recall, most investors woke up to autocracy risk.

中国、俄罗斯，还有许多实行国家主导经济的国家。

So China, Russia, a lot of countries with state run economies.

能给我们讲讲你们为什么决定不是仅仅减持，而是完全排除这些国家吗？

Walk us through your decision to instead of just underweight them, just totally exclude them.

这样做的考虑是什么？

What's the thinking there?

是的，即使我们只是减持专制国家，我们仍然会把资金流向它们。

Yeah, so even if we underweight autocracies, we would still be funneling money towards them.

我的意思是，我们基金目前有20亿美元。

I mean, our fund has $2,000,000,000 right now in it.

MSCI指数有数千亿美元的资金跟踪这些指数。

MSCI indices has hundreds of billions tracking them.

因此，即使在专制国家投入一点点，也不是我们想要的。

And so even a little bit in an autocracy is really not what we want.

我们不认为这是最佳的投资地点。

We don't believe that's the best place to invest.

而且，我们也相信，在专制国家之外的新兴市场中，有大量良好的投资机会。

And also, we believe that there's so many good opportunities in the emerging markets universe outside of autocracies.

人们之所以想到金砖国家，只是因为BRICS这个缩写。

People only think of the BRICS because of the BRICS acronym.

但像智利、波兰这样的国家，在市值加权指数中的权重不到1%，但它们拥有市场规模和流动性，足以支持像ETF这样的产品规模化，投资者也能参与这些国家正在发生的巨大增长。

But there's countries like Chile, countries like Poland that get less than 1% weight in the cap weighted indices, but that have the market size and liquidity to have scale in a product like an ETF and investors can participate in the tremendous growth that has gone on in those countries.

我们的投资者已经从中受益。

And our investors have been able to benefit from that.

我们相信，这些国家是你可以找到更自由的国家或拥有未来最佳增长故事的地方。

We believe those are the countries where you can find the freer countries or the places that have the best growth stories of the future.

而这正是我们想要投资的。

And that's where we want to be.

那么总结一下，如果你是一位希望进行国际投资的投资者，如果你想获得全球新兴市场的敞口，但又不希望将资金输送到那些在国际舞台上确实存在一些最恶劣行为、并因此股市表现不佳的国家，那么请考虑一个基于自由——政治、公民和经济自由——的基金，它能为你提供这种敞口，同时避免所有负面影响。

So to wrap up, if you're an investor that wants exposure internationally, if you want global emerging market exposure, but you don't want to funnel money to countries that really engage in some of the worst behaviors there are on the international stage and have seen their stock markets perform poorly because of it, consider a fund that's based on freedom, on political, civil and economic freedom to give you that sort of exposure without all of the downsides.

例如，可以看看自由100指数和ETF FRDM。

Take a look, for example, at the Freedom 100 Index and the ETF FRDM.

这确实是一个引人入胜的故事。

It's really a fascinating story.

我是巴里·鲁霍尔茨。

I'm Barry Rutholz.

这是彭博社的《At the Money》。

This is Bloomberg's At the Money.