第 1396 集：SpaceX 与 Michael Covel 在趋势跟踪电台

最近我谈到了SpaceX。

Recently, I talked about SpaceX.

现在人人都在讨论SpaceX。

Everyone's talking about SpaceX.

它的股价是每股135美元。

It priced at 135 a share.

开盘时接近1.50美元。

It opened near $1.50.

股价涨到了2.25美元，但现在又回落到大约1.50美元左右。

It went to $2.25, and then it's come back down to around $1.50 at the moment.

这波动可真够大的。

That is some major volatility.

过去两周，这家公司的基本面一点没变。

Now the company didn't change in two weeks.

火箭还是那些火箭。

The rockets are the same rockets.

变化的是价格，而价格根本不关心你信什么。

What changed was the price, and the price doesn't give a shit what you believe.

说白了，这一整件事用一句话就能讲清楚。

That is the whole episode in one sentence, frankly.

重点不是这笔交易。

The story is not the trade.

这个故事可能是我们这一代人见过最了不起的。

The story might be the greatest of our lifetime.

它依然不是交易，过去两周已经在全球面前证明了这一点。

It's still not the trade, and the last two weeks just proved that in front of the world.

价格根本不知道也不在乎你的分析逻辑。

A price doesn't know or care about your thesis.

它不会去读埃隆的传记。

It doesn't read Elon's biography.

它只会动。

It moves.

你唯一要做的，就是在行情启动前就准备好应对方案。

Your only job is to have a plan for that movement before it begins.

这才是真正的游戏。

That is the game.

这就是趋势跟踪。

That is trendfollowing.

你给我听清楚了。

Now hear me clearly.

我不是来告诉你SpaceX接下来会怎么走的。

I'm not here to tell you where SpaceX goes now.

我根本不知道。

I have no idea.

我从不预测，你也预测不了。

I don't predict, and you can't predict.

这正是关键所在。

That's the whole point.

我带你回顾一下最近这几周，因为它们就像一面最清晰的镜子，让我们看清自己的心理状态。

I'm walking you back through these last few weeks because they are the cleanest mirror that we have been handed recently to look at our own psychology.

每个人对SpaceX都有种感觉。

Everybody had a feeling about SpaceX.

每个人对马斯克也都有种感觉。

Everybody has a feeling about Elon.

我对马斯克的感觉特别好。

I have a great feeling about Elon.

我真的很欣赏他。

I love the guy.

他太厉害了。

He's awesome.

当然，他可能也有不少抱怨，但无所谓，谁还没点烦心事呢。

Now, of course, he might have some things to complain about, but whatever, we all do.

但从大局来看，他是个传奇人物，一个创业界的传奇。

But from a big picture standpoint, he's a rock star, an entrepreneurial rock star.

但我要说清楚，今天我不是在推荐股票。

But let me be clear about today, I'm not giving a stock tip.

我没说你们该买 SpaceX，该卖它，或者做空它。

I'm not telling you to buy SpaceX or to sell it or to short it.

我本人没持有它的股票，也说不出什么预测。

I don't have a position in it and I have no prediction.

今天我要给你们的，是比一个股票建议宝贵得多的东西。

What I'm going to hand you today is something way more valuable than a tip.

这是一种思维方式，适用于 SpaceX 和之后那十家公司。

It's a way of thinking that works on SpaceX and the 10 names after it.

一个建议只能让你吃一天饱饭。

A tip feeds you for a day.

一套方法却能让你受用一生。

A method feeds you for your lifetime.

咱们聊聊一家公司即将上市的事。

Let's talk a little bit about a company coming public.

等公司上市的时候，赚钱的好机会早就被内部人士在私下里拿走了，价格低得你连想都不敢想，而且你也接触不到他们。

By the time a company does come public, the easy money was made in private by people you're not going to meet at prices you will never see.

上市的根本目的，就是给内部人找个接盘的——也就是你。

The whole point of the offering is for the insiders to have somebody to sell to, you.

这并不算坏。

That's not evil.

这不过是公开市场里的常态罢了。

That is the structure in the open.

内部人士并没有违反任何规则。

The insiders are not breaking rules.

他们本身就是规则的制定者。

They are the rules.

其实，真没必要在这上面花太多心思。

And look, there's just no reason to really focus on this too much.

几十年来，这种事我们见得还少吗？

We've seen it over the decades.

IPO一出来，就这么回事。

IPOs, they come out.

有的飞上天，有的跌下来，有的又涨上去。

Some go to the moon, some come down, some go up.

各种波动，再正常不过了。

All kinds of volatility, completely normal.

不过咱们还是深入聊聊这种心理吧，因为信念这东西，在生活中真的很美好。

But let's get more into this psychology because belief is a beautiful thing in life.

而市场呢，就像慢慢漏水。

And markets it's a slow leak.

这其实是个陷阱。

It's a trap.

你觉得一家公司很棒，创始人超厉害，产品代表未来，不知不觉间，这种信念就变成了你的交易策略。

You decide a company is great, the leader is brilliant, the product the future, and without noticing, you let that conviction become your trading plan.

你买，是因为你相信。

You buy because you believe.

你持有是因为你相信。

You hold because you believe.

你加仓是因为你相信，而信念没有退出机制。

You add because you believe, and belief has no exit.

看看一旦你拥有了某样东西，信念会怎样影响你。

Look at what conviction does once you own something.

每一个正面的新闻都在印证你的判断。

Every good headline confirms you.

每一个负面的消息都被你当成买入的机会。

Every bad one is a buying opportunity.

价格下跌时，你看到的不是警告，而是折扣。

The price falls and you don't see a warning, you see a discount.

价格继续下跌，你看到的不是风险，而是你的信念在经受考验。

It falls more and you do not see risk, you see your conviction being tested.

你把它当成个人挑战，拼命证明市场是错的。

You take it personally and you dig in to prove the market's wrong.

这根本不是投资。

That's not investing.

这就像跟墙吵架，而墙永远赢。

That's an argument with a wall, and the wall always wins.

所有这些背后，其实都是自尊在作祟。

And underneath all of it sits ego.

真正的信仰者，不只是想赚钱。

The believer does not just want to make money.

他更想成为第一个看出来的人，第一个喊出方向的人，在别人都怀疑的时候，只有他看到了未来。

He wants to be the one who saw it first, who called it, who had the vision when everyone else doubted.

这笔交易已经变成了证明自己是对的较量。

The trade becomes about his identity, about being right.

一旦交易变成了争对错，你就已经输了——因为你再没法认赔出局，否则就得承认自己错了，而自尊宁愿亏钱，也不愿低头。

And the moment a trade is about being right, you have lost because now you cannot exit a loser without admitting you were wrong, and the ego would rather lose money than admit that.

我见过最厉害的交易员，那些顺势而为的，全都毫无自尊心作祟。

The best traders that I've seen, the trend following ones, no ego.

他们会坦率地说：我不知道这会走向哪里，但他们依然能保持平静，因为他们的优势从来不是为了证明自己是对的。

They will tell you flatly, I have no idea where this goes, and they stay with it in a total calm place because their edge was never about being right.

新手非得要证明自己是对的。

The amateur needs to be right.

专业人士则不同，他们追求的是严格执行策略。

The professional, the right strategy needs to be disciplined.

目标不一样，结果也天差地别。

They're not the same goal, and they lead to very different bank accounts.

听好了。

Look.

这里有个残酷的事实。

Here's a cruel part to this.

你可能对一家公司判断完全正确，但还是会被彻底击垮。

You can be right about a company and still get destroyed.

你只是买在了错误的价格上。

You bought at the wrong price.

你买得太多了。

You bought too much.

你一直拿着，熬过了下跌。

You held through a decline.

你根本没有生存计划，结果在最低点被逼出局，而那个改变世界的企业却在没有你资金的情况下复苏了。

You had no plan to survive, and you were forced out at the bottom while the world changer recovered without your money in it.

如果你撑不到那一天，就算对了未来也毫无意义。

Being right about the future is worthless if you cannot stay solvent long enough to be there for it.

先保生存，再谈远见。

Solvency first, vision second.

这种剧情我们见过很多次了：狂热上涨，人人都觉得自己是天才。

We have seen this movie before, the euphoric run, the everyone is a genius phase.

然后价格突然想起地心引力，两周内就崩盘，而不是花两年，但真正让人学到教训的完整版本，其实更早。

And then the price, remembering gravity, all in two weeks instead of two years, but the full feature, the one that teaches the most is older.

如果你年纪够大，应该看过这一幕——九十年代末的互联网泡沫。

If you are old enough, have watched this exact film, the late nineties, the .com bubble.

互联网本以为会改变一切，结果真的改变了。

The Internet was going to change everything and it did.

这正是陷阱中的陷阱。

This is the trap inside the trap.

那些坚信技术的人没错，可还是输得一无所有。

The believers were right about the technology and still lost everything.

把这个记在心里。

Keep that in your pocket.

那时候，只要公司名字加个“.com”，股价立马就涨。

Back then, a company could add .com to its name and the stock would jump.

现在换成人工智能了。

Now it's AI.

我再强调一遍。

Again, let me be really clear.

我对SpaceX将来会怎样，真的一点都不知道。

I have no idea what's gonna happen with SpaceX.

我不是说这跟Pets.com一个情况，根本没法比。

I'm not telling you it's pets.com, not even coming close to that.

依我看，SpaceX可能是有史以来最棒的投资，最成功的交易，也可能是一连串不错的操作，但绝不是那种一蹴而就的。

For all I know, SpaceX could be the greatest investment ever, the greatest trade ever, or it could be great trades spread over time, but not straight up.

你得这么来看待这件事。

This is how you have to approach this.

重点不在于预测崩盘。

It's not about predicting a crash.

预测崩盘不过是反过来迷信，跟之前那毛病一模一样。

Predicting a crash is just believing in reverse, the same disease.

选难的那条路。

Do the harder thing.

我说了，选难的那条路。

I say do the harder thing.

站在这个巨大的故事面前，承认你根本说不清，这到底是改变一生的机遇，还是又一个坟场。

Stand in front of the enormous story and admit you cannot tell whether it is the trait of a lifetime or the graveyard again.

那就想办法参与进来，不管哪种情况都能撑得住。

Then build a way to participate that survives either one.

那些信徒既没有坚定的信念，也没有退出的计划。

The believers had no conviction and no exit.

当错误真的来临时，他们毫无缓冲，直接面对毁灭。

When wrong arrived, they had nothing between them and ruin.

我不希望这样的事发生在你身上。

I want you to make sure that doesn't happen to you.

那么，趋势跟踪交易者会把注意力放在哪里？

So where does the trendfollowing trader put his attention?

放在SpaceX的实际股价上？

On the actual price of SpaceX?

不是因为这个故事不存在，而是因为价格已经包含了所有故事。

Not because the story does not exist, but because the price already contains every story.

每个支持者、每个怀疑者，每只基金、每个创始人，所有这些最终都浓缩成这一个数字及其变动。

Every believer and skeptic, every fund and founder, all of it nets into that one number and its movement.

人群已经投过票了。

The crowd has already voted.

价格就是投票结果。

The price is the tally.

你知道吗？

You know what?

这简直让人抓狂。

That drives people crazy.

你的意思是，你会在不关心基本面的情况下交易SpaceX？

You mean you would trade SpaceX without caring about the fundamentals?

对交易来说，是的。

For the trade, yes.

我只关心价格有没有趋势、趋势方向是什么，以及怎么控制风险。

I care whether the price is trending, which way, and how to manage my risk.

你可以看看基本面，留意一下估值，然后放一边。

You can look at the fundamentals, you can notice the valuation, file it.

这挺有意思，但不该影响你的决策。

It's interesting, but it does not get a vote in your decisions.

这只是场边解说，不是战术指令。

It is color commentary, not the play call.

干嘛这么固执？

Why be so stubborn?

因为故事才是抓住你的地方。

Because the story is where they get you.

贪婪总是借着好故事登场。

Greed rides in on a good story.

恐惧则趁坏故事来袭。

Fear on a bad one.

希望、否认、自尊心。

Hope, denial, ego.

整个闹剧全靠叙事在撑着。

The whole circus travels on narrative.

价格本身是没有感觉的。

The price feels nothing.

它没法左右你。

It can't manipulate you.

牢牢盯住价格和你的规则，你就为自己的资金和情绪建起了一道墙。

Anchor to the price and your rules, and you have built a wall between your money and your feelings.

要是你被故事牵着走，那就是把情绪请进了你的账户。

Anchor to the story, and you have invited the feelings into your account.

好了，咱们说点实在的。

Now, look, let's be frank.

我们现在生活在一个很多人整天嚷嚷自己感受的时代。

We live in a time where so many people spend so much time professing their feelings.

如果你跟我一样，迟早会到这么个地步：我根本不在乎你对这事有什么感受。

If you're like me, you reach a point where you're like, I don't give a shit how you feel about anything.

我真的无所谓。

I don't care.

我不在乎某个陌生人、某个网红或者企业高管的感受。

I don't care about some random person, some random influencer, random corporate head and their feelings.

我不在乎路上随便哪个男人的感受。

I don't care about some man on the street and their feelings.

谁会在意呢？

Who gives a shit?

我们根本没必要在意。

We can't give a shit.

这纯粹是浪费时间。

It's a waste of our time.

我真正想倡导的，是一种男性化的思维重构。

What I'm really pushing for is kind of a masculine reordering of the thought process.

别误会我的意思。

Now don't get me wrong.

女性的神秘魅力确实非常重要。

The feminine mystique is terribly important.

女性的方式确实非常重要。

The feminine way is terribly important.

但说到市场，这种方式并不明智。

But that way, when it comes to the markets, is not wise.

市场需要我们保持一定的客观性。

The markets need us to have a certain objectivity.

市场不需要情绪化的主观判断，而这种情绪化的主观判断如今已渗透到整个社会。

The markets don't need a subjectivity of feeling, and that subjectivity of feeling permeates society today.

所以，如果你选择趋势跟踪这条路，就必须屏蔽掉外界的大量喧嚣——那些像高压水枪一样24小时不停向你涌来的戏剧性信息，这实在太难了。

And so it is terribly hard that if you're going to go down the trend following path, you have to block out so much of the world and its histrionics coming at you like a fire hose twenty four and seven.

我换个话题，聊聊SpaceX。

Let me shift gears a little bit on SpaceX.

我们来谈谈估值。

Let's talk about valuation.

你希望我承认SpaceX定价太高了，是按完美预期来估值的，它的估值和实际盈利完全不匹配。

You want me to say that SpaceX was too expensive, priced for perfection, valued at a number that made no sense next to its earnings.

行吧。

Fine.

随便吧。

Whatever.

巅峰时，它的估值超过了亚马逊，也超过了微软，而当时它的市值只基于一小部分流通股，却还在亏钱。

At its peak, was worth more than Amazon and more than Microsoft on a sliver of float while losing money.

荒谬吗？

Absurd?

大概是吧。

Probably.

那又怎样？

So what?

当然，一年内它的股价可能翻倍。

And of course, within a year, it could be double the price it is today.

谁知道呢？

Who knows?

估值听起来是投资中最合理的想法之一，但也是最糟糕的择时工具。

Valuation is one of the most reasonable sounding ideas in investing and one of the worst timing tools ever invented.

它根本不是用来择时的。

It's not a timing tool.

我的意思是，一样东西可能已经很贵了，却还能继续涨好多年。

I mean, something could be expensive and get more expensive for years.

一样东西可能已经很便宜了，却还能继续跌，直到彻底消失。

Something can be cheap and get cheaper until it's gone.

价格高只说明预期很高，并不能告诉你接下来会发生什么，而只有接下来发生的事才真正决定收益。

A high price tells you expectations are high, does not tell you what happens next, and what happens next is the only thing that pays.

过去二十年里，有多少聪明的怀疑者做空了那些估值最高的股票？他们对估值的判断完全正确，可还没来得及证明自己，就被市场碾压了——如果他们能撑到被证明的那一天的话。

How many brilliant skeptics shorted the most overvalued names of the last twenty years, dead right about the valuation, and got run over before they were ever proven correct, if they survived to be proven at all.

我们都知道那句名言：市场保持非理性的时间，可能比你撑住不破产的时间还要长。

We know the famous line, the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

大多数人只是随口引用这句话。

Most people quote it.

他们嘴上说着这句话，却根本不当回事，或者干脆忘了。

They quote that line and then they ignore it or forget it.

这里有个让人想不通的关键点。

Here's kind of the twist that breaks people.

历史上最贵的那些股票，反而造就了历史上最惊人的上涨趋势。

The most expensive stocks in history have produced some of the largest trends in history.

那些看起来荒谬透顶的高估值股票，价格一路狂飙，趋势跟踪者跟着涨势赚得盆满钵满，而价值派却在一边大喊基本面不对劲。

The thing that looked absurdly overvalued kept going and going, and the trendfollower who simply rode the price made a fortune while the value purist screamed about fundamentals from the sidelines.

贵，不等于该卖。

Expensive is not a sell signal.

贵，只是反映了一种市场情绪。

Expensive is a description of mood.

市场对完美的定价，可能会长时间维持在完美水平，真正安全的做法是跟着价格往上走，设置止损，而不是站在前面拿着估值模型硬扛，结果被碾得粉碎。

A market price for perfection can stay priced for perfection for a very long time and the only way to participate safely is to follow the price up with a stop, not to stand in front of it with a valuation model and get run over.

当SpaceX上市、估值直冲云霄时，我并没有把它当成买入或卖出的理由，只是把它看作一个天气指标。

When SpaceX comes public and the valuation goes vertical, I didn't treat that as a reason to buy or sell, it was just a weather point.

预期太高了，所以价格随时可能剧烈波动，而过去两周恰恰就是这样。

Expectation's enormous, which means the moves could be violent in both directions, and violent in both directions is exactly what happened the last two weeks.

有参考价值，但不一定算信号。

Useful, but not necessarily a signal.

价格才是最终的裁决。

Price is the ultimate verdict.

而且说实话，你永远也别想搞清楚SpaceX的真正价值。

And here's the thing, you're never gonna know the right price for SpaceX.

没人能搞清楚。

Nobody does.

根本就不存在这么个东西。

There is no such thing.

我们需要做的是察觉到大量资金朝哪个方向涌动，跟着走，等势头一停就退出。

What we need is to detect when a lot of money is moving in one direction, ride it while it lasts, and step off when it is.

我们不是在评估这家公司的价值。

We are not valuing the company.

我们跟踪的是资本的动向。

We are following the behavior of capital.

资本会留下痕迹，这些痕迹就是趋势。

Capital leaves footprints and those footprints are the trend.

我们跟着这些痕迹走。

We follow the footprints.

我们不会去问脚本身是怎么想的。

We do not interview the feet.

让分析师去争论它值多少钱吧。

Let the analyst argue about what it's worth.

你要看的是它实际在做什么。

You will be watching what it does.

价值只是观点。

Worth is an opinion.

动向才是事实。

Movement is fact.

跟着事实交易。

Trade the fact.

这一点在整个体系中至关重要。

Now this is a terribly important part of all of this.

核心原则是：永远不要把账户中一大笔资金押在单笔交易上。

The principle, the big principle, never risk a meaningful chunk of your account on any one single trade.

不管多看好、多有把握，尤其别在你自以为确定的时候下重注——因为当你最自信的时候，往往最危险。

Not your favorite, not your highest conviction, especially not the one you are certain about because certainty is when you are most dangerous.

一个有纪律的交易者，无论是做SpaceX还是比特币，每笔交易都只冒固定的小比例风险。

A disciplined trader, SpaceX or Bitcoin or whatever, risks a small fixed predetermined fraction on any one trade.

任何一笔交易都不该威胁到你的生存。

No single bet is allowed to threaten your survival ever.

趋势跟踪策略的根本，就在于你能持续参与下一笔交易。

The whole strategy of trendfollowing is dependent on you being there for the next trade.

生存不是一种防御手段。

Survival is not a defense.

生存才是进攻。

Survival is the offense.

你得留在牌桌上，才能等到回报。

You stay in the game so the game can pay you.

很多人可能在200美元的价格全仓押注SpaceX，不到两周就亏了一半。

A lot of people probably bet their fortune on SpaceX at price level 200 and they've lost half in less than two weeks.

股价可能会反弹，但这种做法算什么计划？

It could go back up, but what kind of plan is this?

这种做法算什么计划？

What kind of plan is this?

纪律在哪里？

Where's the discipline?

策略是什么？

What's the strategy?

如果你的策略就是把全部身家押在马斯克身上，完全信任他，那我无话可说。

I can't argue with you if your strategy is, I'm betting the house on Elon, I'm trusting Elon, and that's it.

这确实是一种合理的策略。

That is a legitimate strategy.

从风险角度看，可能有点高，但毕竟是一种策略。

From a risk standpoint, it might be a touch high risk, but it's a strategy.

对你来说，难点在于：如果你相信这种策略，那就拿它跟趋势跟踪之类的其他策略做个对比。

I think the challenge for you is to say, well, if that is one strategy that you believe in, compare it to another strategy like trendfollowing.

在入场之前，你就已经定好了这笔交易最多能亏多少，固定且小额。

The mindset of before I enter, I have already decided how much I'm willing to lose on this trade, Small and fixed.

每个市场交易都得有这种纪律。

The same discipline as every market you trade.

根据这个亏损限额和你的出场点，仓位大小自然就出来了。

From that number and your exit, the position size falls out.

数学会告诉你该买多少股。

The math tells us how many shares.

你不能因为一时兴奋就随便定交易仓位。

You're not picking your trading size from excitement.

这完全是基于风险和数学推导出来的。

This is derived from risk, from math.

如果你希望长期留在市场里，等你老了还有一笔积蓄，那就得把资金分散到多个投资上。

And ultimately, if you want to be around for the long run, if you want to be around when you're an old guy, you have some capital, You gotta spread your capital across multiple positions.

SpaceX只是一个仓位，可能有人当初只投了一点点，五十年后我们还会听说他靠它赚了大钱。

SpaceX is one position and there will be some one person who had some small position and we'll hear about them fifty years from now and they made a bloody fortune perhaps on SpaceX.

但同样会有很多人，你根本听不到他们的消息，因为他们已经破产了。

And there will probably be just as many people that you never hear about who went broke.

说到SpaceX，它真是时间压缩的绝佳例子——上市时股价大概是一百三十五或一百五十，几天内就冲到二百二十五，然后又跌回一百五十。

As I talk about SpaceX, it's such a great example for the compression of time coming public at I think one thirty five or one fifty, going to two twenty five in just a few days, and then back down to one fifty.

这就是我们现在的世界。

This is our modern world.

对吧？

Right?

我们总觉得得在一周内发财。

We've got to get rich within a week.

这正是我们被灌输的东西。

That's what we're being sold.

SpaceX真正卖给你的，就是普通大众的这种想法。

That's what SpaceX is really selling you, the general public.

不仅你要发财，这点我完全同意，我们都该有这个目标，有什么不对吗？

That not only do you have to get rich, which I agree with completely, we should all want that goal, why not?

但SpaceX暗地里在让人相信，你要是四天内没发财，那就是你错了。

But what SpaceX is doing covertly is convincing everyone that you're wrong if you don't get rich in four days.

这不就是他妈的彩票吗？

Isn't that the fucking lottery?

说白了，这就是彩票心态。

I mean, that's the lottery mindset.

别跟我说这事儿没发生。

And don't tell me it's not happening.

当然在发生。

Of course, it's happening.

全世界都在关注SpaceX上市。

The whole world is watching SpaceX go public.

全世界都在讨论第一位万亿富翁。

The whole world is talking about the first trillionaire.

说实话，我支持像马斯克这样的人成为第一位万亿富翁。

And damn it, I support the idea of a guy like Elon being the first trillionaire.

为什么不行呢？

Why not?

他确实推动了很多事情发生。

He made a bunch of shit happen.

他配得上这份成就。

He deserves it.

但这和我们买卖他的股票是两回事。

But that's independent of us trading his stock price.

你看，他是通过长期做出一系列与买卖股票无关的决定才富起来的。

Look, he got rich over a long time making a lot of different decisions that had nothing to do with buying and selling a stock.

所以，你指望三四天就暴富，这其实是SpaceX现在这种状况带来的可悲后果。

So the idea that you might get rich in three or four days, and again, this is the sad artifact of what has happened with SpaceX.

但有多少人会就此坐等一辈子，盼着下一个SpaceX出现，还以为这种奇迹每五分钟就来一次？

But how many people now are just gonna sit around and wait for the rest of their life for the next SpaceX, assuming there's going to be another one like what every five minutes.

这样一来，大家就只能盯着屏幕，拼命想抓住时机，押上全部身家，指望三四天内赚几百万。

Then the game is to be in front of your screen trying to time it all, betting a fortune, and the game is going to be sitting in front of a screen trying to time it all, betting whatever fortune you have, that you're gonna make millions in three days, four days.

我们活在一个疯狂的世界里。

We live in a crazy world.

如果你真能接受这个世界就是这么疯狂，这本身也是一种机会。

I think if you can actually accept the idea that we live in a crazy world, that is also an opportunity.

因为这么多人被‘四天内赚大钱’的幻想迷住了，对那些有清晰计划、有稳健策略——比如趋势跟踪——的人来说，反而是个长期的好机会。

Because if so many people are seduced by the idea that they're gonna make a bloody fortune within four days, that is a great opportunity over the long run for people with a good plan, a good strategy like trendfollowing.

你不想当那个赌上一切的河上赌徒。

You don't want to be the riverboat gambler, the all in bet.

那不是你应该扮演的角色。

That's not what you want to be.

说实话，我也明白，围绕这个话题，很多人觉得这全靠与生俱来的天赋。

Look, I understand also as a side tangent to this whole conversation, a lot of people think this is all about some kind of innate gift.

你生下来就带着这种能力。

You were born with it.

不是这样的。

No.

这跟是不是天生有天赋一点关系都没有。

It's not about being born with anything.

关于趋势跟踪这个策略，已经有大量实例证明它可以被传递，从一个人传给另一个人，所以你完全也可以成为第三个人。

There is more than enough evidence of trendfollowing, the strategy, transferring from one person to another person to believe that you can be that third person.

很多人以为这不过是乌龟交易员的故事。

A lot of people think that it's just the turtle trader story.

这可不只是乌龟交易员的故事。

It's not just the turtle trader story.

我曾经去过拉里·海特的办公室。

I've been in Larry Heights offices.

在拉里·海特的办公室里，远不止他一个人赚得盆满钵满。

Plenty of people in Larry Heights offices beyond Larry Heights have made a bloody fortune.

趋势跟踪是最能复制的技能。

Trend Following is the ultimate transferable skill.

但它不是万无一失的保证。

It's not the ultimate transferable guarantee.

没人能保证你一定能赚钱。

Nobody can guarantee that you're gonna make money.

但如果你肯下功夫，搞清楚趋势跟踪到底是什么、它的核心要素有哪些、哪些人成功了、他们为什么成功、又是怎么学会这些策略的——

But if you do your homework and you find out what something like trendfollowing is, what constitutes it, who have been the winners, why have they been the winners, how did they learn their strategies?

你沿着这条路走下去，告诉我交易圈里还有哪个地方能有这样的学习氛围？

If you go down this path, tell me another world in the trading world where there is this kind of environment, this environment of learning.

哪儿还有这样的地方？

Where is it?

像汤姆·巴索和杰里·帕克这样的交易员，天天在X平台、播客里分享经验，从不藏私。

You've got guys like Tom Basso and Jerry Parker online, on X, on podcasts, talking and sharing nonstop.

他们不会告诉你明天会发生什么。

They're not telling you what's gonna happen tomorrow.

他们不会预测SpaceX的动向，但他们和我今天一样，分享的是思维方式。

They're not telling you what's gonna happen with SpaceX, but they're sharing the mindset just like I am today.

趋势跟踪这个领域最厉害的地方，就在于它的思考方式、纪律性和逻辑性。

The thought process, the discipline, the thinking, that is so cool about the trendfollowing world.

有这么多人愿意聚在一起，分享经验，让更多人了解这种交易策略。

So many people willing to come together to share to let other people know about this particular type of strategy.

但你一定要记住这一点。

But I want you to take this with you.

故事不是交易本身。

The story is not the trade.

价格比叙事更真实。

The price is more honest than the narrative.

等它真正形成市场趋势后再行动，就像对待其他任何市场一样。

Wait for it to become a market, then treat it just like another market.

风险要小，不管喜不喜欢这个标的，都保持同样的小幅度。

Risk small, the same small whether you love the name or not.

设好止损，严格执行。

Set your stop and obey it.

快点割肉，让盈利奔跑。

Cut losses fast and let your winners run.

要便宜地、频繁地犯错，这样才能偶尔大赚一次；别因为一个故事就让你觉得稳了，把全部筹码都押上去。

Be wrong cheaply and often so you can be right hugely once in a while, and never push the whole stack to the middle because a story made you feel certain.

这正是赌博和趋势跟踪的区别。

That's the difference between gambling and trendfollowing.

一种是把感觉包装成信念。

One is feeling dressed up as conviction.

另一种是你能用一辈子的系统。

The other is a system you can run for the rest of your life.

炒作来了，以后还会再出现，下一个标的、再下一个标的，都会如此。

The hype came and it will come again on the next name and the one after that.

新闻标题会炸裂，信徒们会疯狂涌入，赌徒们会孤注一掷，而系统会咆哮着告诉你别人都赚翻了，唯独你没赶上——但你会保持冷静。

The headlines will scream, the believers will charge, the gamblers will bet it all, and the machine will roar that everyone is getting rich without you, and you will be calm.

在第一笔交易之前，你的规则就已经写好了。

You will have your rules written down before the first print.

在点击买入之前，你就清楚自己能承担多少风险，你会听市场说话，然后跟着走。

You will know your risk before you ever click buy, and you will let the market tell you what it is doing and you will follow.

不是最聪明的人赢，也不是最坚信不疑的人赢，而是那些一生中把风险管得最好的人赢。

Not the smartest person in the room, the most disciplined, not the one who believed the hardest, the one who managed the best over a lifetime.

只有这样的人，才能真正胜出。

That is the only one who wins.

别把这一切误解成披着智慧外衣的胆小怕事。

And do not mistake any of this for caution dressed up as wisdom.

我不是让你变得畏首畏尾。

I'm not telling you to be timid.

胆小的人，也抓不住大趋势。

Timid people never catch the big trends either.

我让你要自律，这完全是另一回事。

I'm telling you to be disciplined, which is a different thing entirely.

自律的交易者会真刀真枪地入场，顺势而为，等机会来了就全力抓住。

The disciplined trader takes real positions, rides real trends, and reaches for the outlier when it comes.

他只是在确保自己不会出局、风险固定、 ego 放在门外的前提下这么做。

He simply does it with his survival protected, his risk fixed, and his ego at the door.

大胆和自律并不是对立的。

Bold and disciplined are not opposites.

鲁莽的人并不勇敢。

The reckless are not brave.

他们只是莽撞，而在这个零和游戏中，市场迟早会从他们身上收走一切。

They are just reckless and the market collects from them eventually every time in this great zero sum game.

真正的胆识，是坚持三十年，等到一生一次的机会出现时，你还在场。

Real boldness is staying in the game for thirty years and being there when the trade of a lifetime finally shows up.

保持自律。

Stay disciplined.

保护你的本金。

Protect your capital.

跟随趋势。

Follow the trend.

我们下一次再见。

And I will see you on the next one.

我会看到那一天，那些清醒的人会明白如何在上涨、下跌和意外的市场中赚钱。

I see a time when those awake will understand how to make money in up, down, and surprise markets.

无论你是新手交易员还是经验丰富的老手，是大学生还是理财顾问，是想防范崩盘还是只想赚大钱，趋势跟踪在不确定的时代都能为你提供答案。

Whether new trader or experienced, college student or financial advisor, protecting against a crash or just trying to make a lot of money, Trend Following offers everyone an answer in uncertain times.

想立即开始，请给我发邮件，michaelcovel.com。

To get started immediately, send me an email, michaelcovel dot com.

我会把正确的趋势跟踪步骤发给你，还有我的免费视频。

I will send you the right trendfollowing steps to take along with my free video.

但如果你只想买入持有，相信政府，相信华尔街，那这个方法完全不适合你。

But if you want to buy and hold, trust the government and trust Wall Street, This is absolutely not for you.