7.1万美元还是20.5万美元？可能决定本轮周期的比特币走势

我觉得比特币已经重新进入了新的牛市环境，我会继续坚定看好它。

I think Bitcoin has reentered a new bull market environment, and I will continue to pound the table on

只要比特币保持在某个价位之上，我就会继续坚持这个观点。

that so long as Bitcoin stays above.

一年前的这周，比特币达到了历史最高点。

One year ago this week, Bitcoin hit its all time high.

从那以后，我们经历了一整轮熊市，现在看起来比特币正在试图确认新一轮牛市的开始。

Since then, we have had a full bear market, and now it looks like Bitcoin is trying to confirm the start of a new bull market.

但这是突破还是回踩，还是我们即将跌回熊市区域？

But is this a breakout or a retest, or are we about to fall back into bear market territory?

投资者需要了解什么？

And what do investors need

关于这一切，投资者需要知道些什么？

to know about all of this?

大家好，欢迎来到Milk Road Crypto节目，这个节目知道比特币只是在回踩突破位，但大家仍然对熊市心有余悸，而且时间线正在恐慌。

Hello, and welcome to Milk Road Crypto, the show that knows that Bitcoin is just retesting its breakout, but everyone is still traumatized from the bear market, and the timeline is panicking.

我是你的主持人，约翰·吉勒姆。

I'm your host, John Gillum.

今天是10月7日，星期三，今天我们请到了图表大师本人，我最喜欢的嘉宾之一，凯莱布·弗兰岑。

Today is Wednesday, October 7, and today we are joined by the chart master himself, one of my favorite guests, Caleb Franzen.

凯莱布是Cubic Analytics的创始人。

Caleb is the founder of Cubic Analytics.

当比特币跌破9.7万时，他就预测到了这次熊市。

He called this bear market when Bitcoin slipped below 97 k.

现在他转而看涨了。

He is now flip bullish.

他今天来给我们解释现在的情况，并分享一些干货。

He's here to explain what is going on and give us a whole bunch of alpha.

凯莱布是业内最聪明的分析师之一。

Caleb is one of the smartest analysts in the business.

如果你觉得不错，记得点赞和订阅。

If that sounds good to you, make sure you like and subscribe.

把这个节目分享给会喜欢它的人吧。

Share this episode with somebody who's gonna enjoy it.

另外提醒一下，我们今天的播客是免费的，这要感谢我们的优秀合作伙伴Nexo，这个数字资产平台让你在一个账户里就能交易、赚取收益和借款。

And as a reminder, our podcast today is free, and that would not be possible without our wonderful partners at Nexo, the digital asset platform that lets you trade, earn, and borrow all in one place, all in one account.

所以请留意节目后面关于他们的更多信息。

So keep an ear out for more information on them later in the show.

不过现在，欢迎回到Milk Road Crypto，我的好朋友Caleb。

But for now, welcome back to Milk Road Crypto, my good friend Caleb.

兄弟，你怎么样？

Sir, how are you?

咱们开始吧，伙计。

Let's rock and roll, man.

我喜欢你说投资者在这个市场里有点受创，因为我觉得这太贴切了。

I love how you said investors are a bit traumatized in this market because I think that's so appropriate.

我也是这么看的。

It's the same read I have on things.

所以我特别兴奋，想聊聊我对这个市场的感受，以及我们俩都看到的一些不同情况。

So I'm super excited to talk about what I'm feeling in this market and the different things that we're both seeing.

那咱们就开始吧，兄弟。

So let's get into it, man.

好的。

Alright.

嗯，让我们...

Well, let...

让我们先回顾一下现在的情况。

Let's catch up to where we are.

当比特币跌破97000的时候，你转为看跌了。

You flipped bearish when Bitcoin lost 97 k.

从那以后，我一直密切关注你的分析，现在你开始转向看涨了。

And since then, I've been monitoring your work very closely, and you've now started to pivot back in a bullish direction.

跟我说说，当时市场出现什么信号让你在跌破97000时转为看跌？现在又是什么改变了你的想法，让你看到看涨的价格走势开始出现？

Talk me through what was the signal in the market that caused you to flip bearish when we lost to 97 k, and and what's changed your mind now when you're you're seeing bullish price action starting to happen here?

我觉得我的一个超能力是……

I think one of my super...

不是想自夸，但作为投资者，我的一个超能力就是能根据数据改变想法、适应变化，对吧？

Not to pat myself too much on the back here, but one of my superpowers as an investor is my ability to change my mind and adapt based on data, right?

而且我觉得，投资的秘诀其实很简单。

And I think as much as possible, the recipe for investing is actually quite simple.

我们尽量多持有上升趋势的资产，尽量少持有下降趋势的资产。

We want to own uptrends as much as possible, and we want to own as little of downtrends as possible as well.

所以当我在2025年11月看到比特币开始出现我认为是下降趋势的特征时，我必须尊重趋势。

And so when I saw Bitcoin flipping into what I believed looked like downtrend characteristics in November 2025, I had to respect the trend.

而今天，我看到的局面完全不同了。

And, now, today, I'm seeing, quite a bit of a different dynamic.

我觉得，你知道，去年那个判断让我挨了不少批评，但没关系。

I think, you know, I received a lot of criticism on that call from last year, and that's fine.

我在很多方面确实是在跟大众对着干。

I was kind of going against the herd in a lot of ways.

而且我觉得我做出的一个关键区分是，我一直在重申我对股市的看涨观点。

And I think one of the key distinctions that I had is I continued to reiterate a bullish look on what I was seeing in terms of the equity market.

这让很多人感到困惑，因为如果我说比特币已经进入新的熊市，我怎么还能对股票保持看涨呢？

And that really confused a lot of people, because how could I still be bullish on equities if Bitcoin I was proclaiming was now in a new bear market?

这其实很简单，因为这两类资产当时呈现出两种不同的趋势。

It's just simply because both of those asset classes were exhibiting two different types of trends.

今天，当我观察市场状况和风险资产时，我看到比特币重新回到上升趋势，重新进入牛市动态，而股票市场也一直处于牛市动态中。

Today, as I look at market conditions, as I look at risk assets, I see Bitcoin reasserting itself back into uptrend behavior, back into bull market dynamics, while equities have continued to be in bull market dynamics.

这正是我喜欢作为投资者所处的全面风险偏好环境。

And that's the full type of risk on environment that I love to be an investor in.

在这种环境下，我们作为投资者才能获得回报。

That's where we get rewarded as investors.

我们实际上只有两种方式可以创造套利机会。

We can only manufacture arbitrage really in two ways.

我们可以低买高卖，或者高买更高卖。

We can buy low and sell high, or we can buy high and sell higher.

这真的是……

That's really...

这就是关键所在，简单明了。

That's the name of the game right there, plain and simple.

所以对我来说，约翰，你知道的，一切都归结于价格。

So for me, as you know, John, everything comes down to price.

我分析价格，因为我相信它是我们拥有的最好的水晶球，能告诉我们市场的真实预期。

I analyze price because I believe it's the best crystal ball that we have available to us to tell us what the market's expectations quite literally are.

所以，当所有风险和机会都能浓缩成一个数据点时，那就是价格。

And so, when all risks and opportunities can be condensed into one single data point, price.

我认为价格本身就包含了我们需要的所有信息，然后我们只需根据价格信号的变化和调整来适应。

I think that in and of itself contains all the information that we need, and then we can just adapt based on how price signals do change and adapt.

所以对我来说，去年让我转为看跌的就是价格。

So for me, what caused me to turn bearish last year was price.

好的。

Okay.

八月底的时候，你写了一篇文章，说各种证据表明比特币熊市最糟糕的时期已经过去了。

And at the end of August, you wrote a piece about how the weight of evidence suggests that the worst of the Bitcoin bear market is over.

那你在八月底看到了什么，让你改变了想法，从看跌转向了看涨呢？

What were you seeing at the end of August that changed your mind here and caused you to flip from that bearish outlook, towards a more bullish one?

我觉得主要发生了两件事。

So I think two main things happened.

如果你想看我的屏幕，我觉得这是一个很好的起点。

And if you actually wanna go to my screen on this, I think this is a great little starting point for us.

这是从去年十月开始的比特币走势，也就是2025年十月。

This is Bitcoin since last October, so October 2025.

我在这里加上了两百日移动平均线云图。

And all I've added on here is that two hundred day moving average cloud.

我不觉得两百天有什么特别神奇的地方，但在我作为技术分析师的十一年里，这个方法一直很有效，所以我会继续依赖它。

I don't think there's anything necessarily magical about two hundred days, but it's been a proven technique for me that's worked, in my eleven years as a technician, so I'm going to continue to rely on it.

当我看到这次突破行情发生时，我记得大概是在8月21号左右，我不得不非常关注它，因为这在下跌趋势和熊市的背景下，跟之前任何一次都不一样。

And when I saw this breakout move happening, I believe that was on like August 21 or somewhere around there, I had to pay a lot of attention to that because it was quite literally different than at any other point in the context of that downtrend and that bear market.

你会注意到，那正是我们在2026年5月被拒绝的位置。

You'll notice that's exactly where we got rejected in May 2026.

在2026年1月可能重新测试时，我们甚至都没有触及那个位置。

We didn't even snip it in that January 2026 potential retest.

所以这次突破行情可以说是完美落地了。

And so this breakout move has quite literally stuck the landing.

这里的走势和之前的下跌趋势动态看起来非常不同。

This move right here looks very different than this downtrend dynamic.

所以，这本身就是非常关键的一点。

So, that in and of itself is really key.

如果你愿意，可以停止共享我的屏幕了。

You can stop sharing my screen there if you'd like.

我觉得另一个我关注的主要因素是，我称之为“动量推力”的东西。

And I think the other main thing, that I paid attention to was something that I was referring to as a momentum thrust.

具体来说，我关注的是比特币在8月中下旬的那根单周K线中，涨幅达到了20%或更多。

And in particular, what I was looking at was Bitcoin had gained in that single weekly candle in mid to late August, 20% or more.

我当时就说，天哪，这根K线可真大。

And I was saying, man, that's a huge candle.

纵观比特币的历史，有多少次……

Throughout Bitcoin's history, how how...

首先，比特币有多少次做到过这样？

First of all, how many times has Bitcoin done this?

其次，过去它做到的时候，也就是单周涨幅超过20%的时候，比特币未来的回报率是怎样的？

And second of all, when it has done it in the past, when it's gained more than 20% in a single week, what are forward returns for Bitcoin?

我查了一下数据，结果非常乐观。

And I looked and the data was like super optimistic.

我当时就想，哇，这本身就很好地说明了我们作为投资者应该怎么定位自己。

I was like, wow, okay, that in and of itself is a great reflection of how we should be trying to position ourselves as investors.

所以在八月底，我说，好吧，我不知道接下来的路径会怎样，但我们看到技术面突破了200日均线云，而且出现了这种动量推力。

So in late August, I said, okay, I don't know what the path is going to be going forward, but we're seeing this technical breakout above the two hundred day moving average cloud, and we're getting this momentum thrust.

数据是怎么说的呢？

What what did the what did the data say?

数据显示，六个月后、一年后，价格应该会大幅上涨。

And the data tells us that price should be significantly higher six months later, one year later.

我不知道我们会走哪条路到达那里。

And I don't know what path we're going to take to get there.

这就是为什么我当时基本上站出来说，那是我十个月来最不悲观的一次。

And that's why I basically came out and said, is the least bearish that I've been in ten months at the time.

而且我当时说，在我看来，熊市最糟糕的时期已经正式结束了。

And why I was saying that now officially, in my opinion, the worst of the bear market is over.

比特币这次回调吓坏了好多人，但我不是其中之一。

This pullback on Bitcoin is scaring a lot of people, and I am not one of them.

所以，如果你想看看我在卖什么、为什么不卖，我的观察名单上有什么，以及我打算什么时候向这些市场投入更多资金，今天就加入Milk Road PRO吧。

So if you wanna see what I'm not selling and why, what's on my watch list, and when I'm gonna be deploying more capital into these markets, you can join Milk Road PRO today.

只要一美元。

It's just a dollar.

链接在描述里。

The link is in the description.

我在Discord上日夜回答问题。

I answer questions day and night in Discord.

我们到时候见。

I'll see you there.

明白了。

Gotcha.

好的。

Okay.

那真是很有帮助的背景信息。

That's very helpful context on that.

我看到了你标记的另一个东西。

I I saw something else that you flagged.

你在图表和信号方面很厉害。

You're great on charts and on on signals.

你标记了21日均线已经上穿200日均线。

You flagged that the twenty one day moving average has crossed above the 200 moving average.

你说这种情况自2020年以来比特币只出现过八次。

You said that that's only happened eight times since 2020 for Bitcoin.

跟我们讲讲这个信号是什么，对你来说意味着什么，以及为什么你认为这是一个如此重要的时刻。

Walk us through what that signal is, what it means to you, and why this is such an important moment, in your opinion.

我其实没带那张具体的图表，但我带了一张基本上能覆盖它的图。

So I didn't bring that specific chart with me, but I brought one that basically layers on top of it.

在这张图里，我用蓝色表示21日指数移动平均线，用绿色表示200日指数移动平均线。

In this particular case, I have the twenty one day EMA in blue and the two hundred day EMA in green.

你提到的那个我标记的信号，正好出现在八月底的那个位置。

So the signal that you're referencing that I highlighted occurred right back here at the exact end of August.

我在这张图上额外加了一条55日指数移动平均线，用红色表示。

The only other addition that I have on here is the fifty five day EMA in red.

所以我们基本上就是在看比特币在不同时间框架下的平均价格，以及这些不同时间框架的平均价格之间是如何相互关联的。

So we're basically just looking at Bitcoin's average price over multiple different time frames and looking at how those average prices on those multiple different time frames are related to each other.

而且，对我来说，这方面的数据非常有说服力，非常乐观。

And, you know, for me, the data on this was super conclusive, super optimistic.

我这次带了很多不同的研究数据来，但我想特别提一下这个。

I brought a lot of different studies with me here on this particular case, but what I want to specifically reference is this one right here.

当比特币的21天EMA上穿200天EMA时，平均三个月回报率大约是33%。

When Bitcoin's twenty one day EMA crosses above the 200 EMA, the average three month return is basically 33%.

平均六个月回报率是43.4%，平均一年回报率是153%。

The average six month return is 43.4%, and the average one year return is 153%.

你会看到这里有几个案例确实出现了负回报。

You'll see here a few of these cases do come out with negative returns.

这些是平均值。

These are averages.

我拿这些数据不是要引用什么，而是想建立一些预期。

All I'm trying to do with this data is reference, or not sorry, not to reference, but to essentially build out some form of expectations.

如果这是过去客观的数据，不幸的是，这是我们唯一能依赖的数据，因为我们没有未来的数据。

If this is the objective data from the past, unfortunately, it's the only data that we can rely on because we don't have data from the future.

但如果这是过去的数据，我们想用它来形成对未来的预期或可能的结果，那对我来说，这非常关键，对吧？

But if this is the data from the past and we're trying to use that to form expectations about the future or potential outcomes, then this for me is super key, right?

如果这个信号基本上是在比特币大约8万5千美元或者8万美元的时候出现的，那么六个月后高出43%会是什么样子呢？

If this signal was basically happening at like $85,000 per BTC or 80 ks per BTC, what does it look like 43% higher six months later?

一年后平均价格会是多少，如果回报率是153%的话？

What is the actual price on average one year later with 153% returns?

所以对我来说，我整理了所有这些在过去大概六到八周内出现的研究。

And so for me, I built out all of these different studies that have occurred over the course of the last basically six to eight weeks.

从我的角度来看，能不能……

And from my perspective, can...

好吧，我相信我们会更详细地逐一讨论这些，对吧？

Well, I'm sure we'll go over each of these a bit more independently, right?

但数据是相当有说服力的，对吧？

But the data is pretty conclusive, right?

我们的上涨倾向显然应该存在。

Our upside bias should obviously be in place.

嗯，这张幻灯片很棒。

Well, this is a great slide.

各位听众，我强烈建议大家去YouTube看看现在屏幕上的内容，因为Caleb整理了大量的关于比特币以及它在特定市场条件下表现的研究。

And for those listening, I would highly recommend you flip over to YouTube and check out what's on the screen right now because Caleb has assembled a enormous amount of studies about Bitcoin and and how it behaves under certain market conditions.

Caleb，给我们详细讲讲这张幻灯片上的内容，以及为什么投资者需要理解这些。

Caleb, step us through a little bit more of what's on this slide and and why this is important for investors to understand.

好的，再说一下，你知道，我们……

Well, so again, you know, we...

我提到了八月中下旬出现的那个动量推力，六个月后，比特币平均上涨了51%。

I I referenced that momentum thrust that occurred in the mid to end of August, and, you know, six months later, Bitcoin's up 51.

一年后，比特币平均上涨了85%。

One year later, Bitcoin's up 85% on average.

这样的数据，我真的想忽视吗？

Is that data that I really want to fade?

在图表上所有其他数据的证据面前，我真的想忽视这个数据吗？

Is that data that I want to fade in light of the evidence of all the other data on this chart?

因为有一项研究，你知道，肯定会有看空的人引用一些研究，显示比特币的回报可能不佳。

Because one study, you know, I'm sure there's going to be bears out there who have studies that they're referencing that show poor returns for BTC, perhaps.

我是说，祝他们好运吧。

I mean, good luck to them.

但在我看来，当我们有这么多证据都指向六个月后、一年后的平均回报是正面的，我现在作为一个从去年十一月就一直看空的人，面临一个选择。

But from my perspective, when we have all this weight of the evidence pointing towards positive outcomes six months later, one year later, in terms of average returns, I now have a choice as someone who's been bearish since last November.

我要不要看着这些数据说，我一直看空。

Am I going to look at this data and say, I've been bearish.

这现在有点成了我的招牌了。

That's become a bit of my shtick now.

我得维护我的名声。

I have a reputation to uphold.

所以，是的，这些数据都在，但我就是要把头埋进沙子里，假装它们不存在，这样我就能继续看空。

So, yeah, all this data exists, but I'm just going bury my head in the sand and pretend like it doesn't so I can continue to be bearish.

绝对不行。

Absolutely not.

我来这儿是为了赚钱的。

I'm here to make money.

其实，我之所以做投资者，分享分析，就是因为我想在市场上赚钱。

I mean, the only reason why I'm an investor and why I'm sharing analysis is because I want to make money in the market.

我分享的分析，正是我赚钱的方法。

And the analysis that I share is exactly how I'm doing that.

所以，我之前提到的另一个指标，就是让我在去年年底转为看跌的那个指标。

And so, another thing that I referenced potentially is this indicator for me that obviously allowed me to flip bearish at the end of last year.

就是那个两日200移动平均线云图。

This is the two day 200 moving average cloud.

约翰，这个我们在节目里以前聊过。

It's something that we've talked about on the show in the past, John.

我们可以很清楚地看到，当价格突破这个两日200移动平均线云图时，就像2020年5月那样，还有2023年3月那样，以及几周前刚刚发生的那样，好事往往会随之而来。

And we can see very clearly when price breaks above this two day 200 moving average cloud as it did, I believe that was in May 2020, as it did in March 2023, and as it just did literally a few weeks ago, good things tend to take place.

反过来也一样，当价格在2021年底到2022年初突破时，情况就相反。

And the opposite is also true when price broke above in late two thousand and twenty one going into 2022.

当价格在2025年底跌破时，情况也相反。

When price broke below in, late two thousand and twenty five.

坏事往往就会发生。

Bad things tend to happen.

所以这是一个很棒的指标，因为它把整个过程简化了很多。

So this is a beautiful indicator because it's oversimplifying the entire process for us.

我们可以看到在整个牛市期间，这是我当时实时分享的指标，每一次回踩都是看涨的机会，反弹后创出新高，我们也确实做到了。

And we could see during the entirety of the bull market, this is an indicator I was sharing in real time, each of those retests were bullish opportunities to rebound and make higher highs, and we did.

明白了。

Gotcha.

好的。

Okay.

所以这里有一个强劲的趋势开始转多。

So there's there's a strong trend that's starting to flip bullish here.

我想谈谈比特币目前所在位置附近的一些价格水平。

I wanna talk about some of the price levels just around the local place where Bitcoin is at the moment.

因为我们一直在87千、88千遇到阻力，一直没能突破。

Because we keep getting resistance at 87 k, 88 k, and and not being able to break through it.

我觉得在这波上涨中，我们已经测试了这个位置五六次，甚至更多，而且它一直在形成很强的阻力。

I think on this this move up here, we've tested this, like, five or six times, maybe more at this point, and it keeps presenting strong resistance.

你觉得这个阻力还会继续守住吗，还是说我们该重新测试一次了？

Do you think that resistance is likely to continue to hold, or do you think we're due for a a retest?

或者就说，你对现在的局部价格走势有什么看法？

Or just, like, what what is your thoughts on the local price action right now?

所以，我的意思是，它可能会守住，但我觉得……

So, I mean, it it it might hold, but I think...

我希望我表达得够清楚，我毫无疑问地再次看涨了。

I hope I'm coming off clear enough that I'm I'm bullish again, unequivocally.

我认为比特币已经重新进入了新的牛市环境，只要比特币保持在200日均线云上方，我就会继续坚持这个观点。

I think Bitcoin has reentered a new bull market environment, and I will continue to pound the table on that so long as Bitcoin stays above its two hundred day moving average cloud.

你可以在右侧看到这些价格。

You can see the prices here on the right hand side.

目前200日简单移动平均线在71730美元。

The two hundred day SMA is currently trading at 71,730.

两百日指数移动平均线在75135。

The two hundred day EMA is trading 75,135.

所以，只要价格保持在这之上，我觉得好事应该会继续发生，比特币正处于新的牛市。

So, as long as we stay above there, I think good things should continue to happen, and that Bitcoin is in a new bull market.

我觉得过去两个月研究得出的一个关键结论，还是要回到这张图表。

I think One of the key conclusions that I've been coming to from my research over the last two months has been, again, coming back to this chart.

如果我们想成为顺风顺水的投资者，希望在接下来的六个月、一年里实现这些回报，那么尤其是像比特币这样的资产，我们需要承受相当大的波动才能获得这些回报。

If we want to be investors who are going to have the wind in our sails and hope to achieve these returns over the next six months, one year, whatever the case is, we are going to need to, especially with an asset like Bitcoin, endure a significant amount of volatility in order to capture these returns.

关于这些回报，我还有一个很好的发现：如果出现回调，你未来的回报会比我现在图表上显示的更好。

Another beautiful realization that I had about these returns is that if dips occur, your forward returns are going to improve relative to what I'm showing on the chart right here.

所以，如果我们真的想抓住这些回报，甚至给自己一个超越这些潜在回报的机会，我们应该在盘整和下跌时积极配置。

So if anything, if we really want to capture these returns or even better give ourselves an opportunity to outperform these potential returns, we should be looking to allocate rather aggressively into consolidations and downside moves.

对我来说，这正是我目前看待市场的方式。

And so for me, that's exactly how I'm viewing things right now.

尤其是回踩两百日移动平均线云区，对我来说将是最大的加仓时机之一。

Most notably, that retest into the two hundred day moving average cloud for me is going to be one of the biggest kind of back up the truck types of moments.

我知道现在很多投资者都在后悔，为什么没在七万出头甚至更低的时候多买一些。

I know a lot of investors right now are regretting that they weren't buying more in the low to mid 70 ks's or below that.

谁知道呢？

Who knows?

我们可能再也没有机会在七万以下买入了。

We may not get that opportunity to buy below 70 ks again.

也许会有，也许不会，没人知道。

Maybe we will, maybe we won't, nobody knows.

但在我看来，这个指标，就像它在五月那次回测时完美地充当了阻力位一样，考虑到我们现在处于新的牛市，如果我们回落到那个区间，它很有可能会变成支撑位，对吧？

But this indicator, in my opinion, the same way that it acted perfectly as resistance here during that May retest, I think there's a really good chance given that we're in a new bull market, that it's gonna act as support if we go back down to that range, right?

所以对我来说，第一个问题是：我们还会回落到那个区间吗？

So for me, number one is, are we gonna get back down to that range?

如果会，那就是逢低买入的机会。

And if we do, that's a buy the dip opportunity.

对于更激进的投资者来说，让我们回到那个三重指数移动平均线指标，其中二十一天线是蓝色的，五十五天线是红色的，两百天线是绿色的。

For the more aggressive investors out there, let's go back to that triple EMA indicator where we have the twenty one day in blue, the fifty five day in red, and the two hundred day in green.

这更多是针对那些想在各个价位分批买入的激进交易者。

This is gonna be a bit more for those aggressive traders looking to scale in at various price points.

你知道，我们今天早上拍完这张截图后，就正好触及了21天指数移动平均线。

You know, we came into that twenty one day EMA quite literally this morning after I took the screenshot of this post.

55天指数移动平均线在接近79,000美元的位置交易。

The fifty five day EMA trading just shy of 79,000.

所以我觉得基本上在那个区间内的任何位置，都是不错的逢低买入机会。

So I think anywhere basically in that pocket spot are attractive buy the dip opportunities.

当然还有更多，但那些是……

There's more for sure, but those are the...

一些我现在真正想向投资者强调的关键点。

Some of the key ones I'd really be highlighting to investors right now.

好的。

Okay.

我想再把这些都过一遍，因为那是我另一个很大的疑问。

I just wanna go over all this again because that was another big question that I had.

如果你已经接受我们进入了牛市，并且想要进行配置，你会考虑在哪些地方投入资金？

If you have accepted that we flipped into a bull market and you are looking to make allocations, where are the places that you would look to to deploy?

然后这是……

And then this is...

我想确保我们把这个也讲清楚。

Think I wanna just make sure we get this in here too.

你觉得在什么情况下你会说，好吧。

Where's the line in the sand where you might say, okay.

也许熊市又回来了，牛市已经失去了太多阵地。

Maybe the bears are back and the bulls have lost too much ground here.

再给我们讲一遍，让大家都能再听一次。

Talk us through that again just so people all have that all on one more one more time here.

当然。

Of course.

所以我要承认，如果比特币跌回71,000以下，也就是那个200日均线云带，那么牛市并没有回来。

So I will concede that the bull market did not come back if Bitcoin falls back below, I believe it was 71,000, that two hundred day moving average cloud.

目前是71,730。

71,730 as of right now.

这个数字会在接下来几周内变化，因为它是滚动计算的。

That figure will change over the course of the next few weeks because it's a rolling measurement.

所以我觉得这一点非常重要。

So I think that's really important.

我会在哪些位置买入呢？

Where am I looking to buy?

今天早上在节目开始前，我又买了一些。

I bought more this morning just before we jumped on the show.

我的限价单在83,000成交了，因为那刚好接近21日均线。

I had a limit order fill at 83,000 because that was just shy of the twenty one day EMA.

所以，当我们考虑那些更激进的价位时，我会利用这些指标。

So, as we think about more of those aggressive levels, I'm going to be using these.

我会在21日均线附近买入，就像我刚才那样，也像之前那样。

I'm going to be buying on the twenty one day EMA as I did right now, as I did back here.

我会在不可避免的55日均线回测时买入。

I'll be looking to buy on the inevitable retest of the fifty five day EMA.

这肯定会发生。

It's going to happen.

问题只是，它会在79,000美元时发生，还是两个月后价格到85,000美元时发生？

It's just, is it going to happen at a price of 79,000, or is it gonna happen two months from now when price is 85 k?

你知道，我我我也不知道。

You know, I I I don't know.

但我觉得那些是……

But I think those, are...

抱歉。

Sorry.

那是你问的两个问题。

Those were two of the questions you asked.

还有第三个问题，约翰。

There was a third one, John.

我一时想不起来了。

I'm blanking on it.

抱歉。

Sorry.

第三个问题我也记不清了，但基本上问题是，多头要守住或输给空头的底线在哪里？

I can't remember what the third one is either, but, basically, the question was, where's the line in the sand for for the bulls to defend or lose to the bears?

我觉得你已经回答了。

I think you answered that.

另一个问题是，你在哪里寻找回调买入和累积目标？

And the other one is just, like, where are you looking for pullbacks and and and accumulation targets here?

我觉得你也已经讲到了。

And I think you kind of covered that as well.

这两点还有什么要补充的吗？

Anything else to add on either of those?

我觉得还有一个累积区间大家可以关注，我喜欢用锚定成交量加权平均价这个指标。

I think another accumulation range that people can be looking at, I like to use something called the anchored volume weighted average price.

这其实就是在衡量市场从某个价格点和时间段开始的成本基础。

This quite literally measures the market's cost basis from a given price point and period in time.

所以这是一个非常强大的工具，对吧？

So this is a really powerful tool, right?

我们可以……

We can...

很多比特币投资者可能会提到短期持有者已实现价格之类的指标。

A lot of Bitcoiners might reference something like the short term holder realized price.

我没带那张图表，但那是另一个很棒的指标，我会用它来做定投。

I didn't bring that chart with me, but that's another phenomenal indicator I'll be looking to use to DCA.

但我们可以看到，对吧，如果我们把锚定成交量加权平均价格放在高点附近，那个水平在2025年10月底、11月初起到了阻力作用。

But we could see, right, if we put the anchor volume weighted average price off of the highs, that level acted as resistance at the end of October, early November twenty twenty five.

它在2026年1月也起到了阻力作用，几乎就在这里，在大突破之前形成了一个暂时的天花板。

It acted as resistance in January 2026, almost right here, temporary, glass ceiling here before the big breakout move.

所以我们这里看到的是，之前的阻力位，之前的阻力位，之前的阻力位，还是之前的阻力位。

So what we have here is former resistance, former resistance, former resistance, and former resistance.

现在有机会把它当作当前的支撑位来操作和持有，我觉得那会是另一个定投的机会。

Now with the opportunity to act and hold as current support, I think that will be another DCA opportunity.

然后我们还可以从六月底和七月初的低点画一条锚定成交量加权平均价。

And then we can also put an anchored volume weighted average price off of the low print from the end of June and early July.

我们可以看到，自从那些低点以来，这条锚定成交量加权平均价在每次下一轮上涨之前都起到了动态支撑的作用。

And we could see that since those lows, that anchored volume weighted average price has been dynamic support before every next leg higher.

所以我觉得如果我们真的回落到那个水平，这会在未来几天或几周内发生变化，因为它是动态的。

And so I think if we do manage to go back down into that level, again, this is going to change in the days and weeks ahead because it's dynamic.

它每天每分钟都会根据市场价格走势和成交量被计算和重新计算。

It gets calculated and recalculated every minute of every single day based on market price action and volume.

如果我们真的回落到七万五，那个价格可能会在接下来几周上升到七万五。

That might rise up to 75 ks in the next few weeks if we do get that decline back into 75.

我觉得我现在看到的美妙之处在于，如果我们真的回落到七万五，而那条锚定成交量加权平均价已经上升到那个水平，而且两百天移动平均线云就在那里，这就叫汇聚，对吧？

And I think that's one of the beautiful things about what I'm seeing right now is that, okay, if we do get that decline in the 75 ks, and that anchored volume weighted average price has risen up into that level, and that two hundred day moving average cloud is right there, that's called confluence, right?

那就是我们在权衡证据的时候，所有这些不同的独立变量都在说，嘿，这里应该有支撑。

That's when we're looking at the weight of the evidence, we have all of these different independent variables saying, hey, we should have support here.

市场在这个位置有很多价格记忆，然后我们可以观察一下，市场是否真的会在那个点位反弹。

The market has a lot of price memory here, and then we can look and see, is the market actually going to rebound on that spot?

我怀疑如果我们跌到那里，它会的。

I suspect if we go down there, it will.

明白了。

Gotcha.

好的。

Okay.

Caleb，我想聊聊数字资产市场的其他部分和山寨币领域。

I wanna talk a little bit, Caleb, if we could about some of the rest of the digital asset market and the altcoin space.

比特币主导地位在58%左右徘徊。

Bitcoin dominance is hovering around 58.

可能有点变化，

It may have shifted a little bit

自从我记笔记以来，但已经有一些

since I took notes on this, but there have been a

市场上有很多山寨币都在大涨。

lot of altcoins in the market that have been ripping.

我很想听听你的看法。

And I'm curious your thoughts on this.

比特币的市占率，就像我说的，稍微偏离了高点。

Bitcoin dominance, like I said, is a little bit off of its high.

山寨币市场显示出一些强势，正在测试多年来的阻力位。

The altcoin space is showing some strength, testing some resistances, like, for multi years going back here.

你觉得我们是不是开始看到市场对数字资产领域整体转多了？

Do you think we're starting to see the market start to flip bullish on the rest of the digital asset space?

你现在对山寨币市场有什么看法？

And just kinda what are your thoughts on on the altcoin space here right now?

从……

From...

所以我注意到的是，主流币在这个市场中表现很好，考虑到比特币的走势、我们看到的强势以及加密生态系统中风险偏好的回归，这应该是意料之中的，尤其是在经济持续向好、在很多方面甚至重新加速，而股市明显处于牛市的市场环境下。

So what I've been noticing is the majors are doing a great job of of participating in this market, which I think we should expect given Bitcoin's move and the strength that we've been seeing and the return of risk appetite within the crypto ecosystem, especially in a market environment where the economy is continuing to hold up and actually reaccelerate in many ways, and stocks are clearly in a bull market.

就在昨天，标普500和纳斯达克都创下了全新的历史新高。

Just yesterday, had the S and P five hundred and the NASDAQ make brand new fresh all time highs.

所以我觉得在这种环境下，投资者愿意承担更多的风险。

So I think in this environment, investors are willing to move further out onto the risk curve.

而在那种环境下，我们应该看到最具投机性的风险资产，也就是所谓的山寨币，也会参与到这个市场中来。

And in that kind of environment, we should see the most speculative of risk assets, AKA altcoins, if you will, participate in this market.

我觉得考虑到比特币刚刚进入牛市，对我来说，现在去关注山寨币生态里的其他机会还为时过早，即使从交易的角度来看也是这样。

I think given proximity to Bitcoin's new birth into a bull market, let's say, for me personally, it's still too early to really look for other opportunities in the Altcoin ecosystem, even as a trading perspective.

总有一天我会开始行动的，但现在还不是时候。

At some point, I will be looking to dance, but not yet.

我要为那些在2026年大部分时间里坚持下来的人点赞，他们在最近几个月里取得了相当大的回升，我觉得这很棒。

And kudos to the people who were able to stay headstrong here over the majority of twenty twenty six, and I've been able to make quite a big comeback here in just the last few months, so I think that's great.

对我来说，现在庆祝胜利还太早。而且，至少我们可以感到欣慰的是，Chainlink的价格表现正在回升。

For me right now, I think it's a bit too early to take any victory laps on that, And, I think at the very least, we can hang our hat on the fact that, you know, Chainlink is making a good comeback in terms of price action.

Solana看起来非常棒。

Solana looks fantastic.

HYPE看起来非常棒。

HYPE looks amazing.

Zcash看起来非常出色。

Zcash looks, phenomenal.

BNB看起来不错，XRP还是老样子，对吧？

BNB looks good, XRP is doing XRP things, right?

所以从这个角度看，这种参与至少让我确认比特币表现良好。

So I think from that perspective, that kind of participation, at the very least gives me confirmation that Bitcoin is doing well.

但也许我还有一些上个周期的创伤后应激障碍，谢天谢地这没怎么影响我，但我看到它对其他人的影响有多大，他们说，是的，比特币很棒，但如果比特币进入新的牛市，所有币都会表现很好，结果却没有。

But maybe I also have some PTSD from last cycle, and thank God this didn't necessarily affect me, but I saw how much it affected other people who were saying, yeah, Bitcoin's great, but if Bitcoin's in a new bull market, all coins are gonna do amazing, and then they didn't.

所以这次我有点怀疑，还是因为上个牛市我们经历的那些事。

So I'm a bit skeptical this time around, again, because of, you know, what we experienced last bull market.

我觉得很多投资者都有这种感觉，你说得对。

And I think that that's how a lot of investors are feeling, and you're right.

XRP还是老样子，所以我希望它能继续保持这样。

XRP is still doing XRP things, so I hope it continues to do that.

我想问你一个问题，关于你刚才没提到的那个，就是以太坊。

I wanna ask a question on one you left off the list, which is Ethereum.

以太坊对比特币的汇率似乎终于突破了下跌趋势，而且看起来有些人正在……

And Ethereum's BTC ratio seems to be finally breaking out of a downtrend there, and it seems like some people are...

我看到你今天刚发布了一些研究，说以太坊已经重新测试了支撑位，而且似乎守住了。

I saw you put out some research just today talking about how Ethereum has retested its support and and seems to be holding that.

关于ETH、ETH/BTC，或者以太坊的其他方面，你现在有什么新的看法吗？

Any updated thoughts on ETH, ETH BTC, or or anything about Ethereum here?

有。

Yes.

当然有。

Absolutely.

如果你想看我的图表，这就是我现在在Cubic Analytics跟投资者分享的关于以太坊的内容。

If you wanna go to my chart on this, this is what I'm sharing with investors over at Cubic Analytics right now regarding regarding Ethereum.

以太坊。

Ethereum.

如果我们从八月到九月初或九月中旬那波盘整的低点，用锚定成交量加权平均价来看，我们现在正好来到那个位置。

If we take the anchored volume weighted average prices off the lows of that consolidation from August to early slash mid September, we're coming right into that spot.

而且我们也有机会把上方那个阻力位，也就是上方的供应区，转变成现在的支撑位。

And we also have the opportunity to flip the resistance, that overhead supply into support right now.

所以我觉得这里有一些共振。

So I see some confluence here.

我其实今天还挺想买一点BTC的，哦不，说错了，是以太坊，基于这个分析，但我还没买。

I was actually quite tempted to purchase a bit of BTC, or excuse me, Ethereum today based on this, I haven't yet.

但我觉得如果我们再看看之前的价格走势，对吧，就是那次突破的时候，我们一直在用之前的阻力区间作为支撑。

But I think if we look also at some of the price action that we were even seeing back here, right, when we had that breakout move, we kept kind of using this former resistance range as support.

好吧，有些影线有点吓人，但我们没有收盘跌破那个区域，然后我们就能重新加速上涨。

Okay, some of those wicks got a little scary, but we didn't get a daily close below that zone, and we were able to reaccelerate.

所以，我觉得即使是那些在比如25000或2500左右买入的投资者，你知道，如果我们真的回调到24000或2400，那我觉得也没什么大不了的，没什么损失。

So, I think even for investors who are buying, you know, like, let's say mid 25 ks or 2,500, you know, if we do get that dip into 24, 2,400, then, like, I don't think there's much, like, no harm, no foul.

所以我觉得即使你现在在这里买入，也要准备好在这个位置再买一次，那将会很棒。

So I think even if you are buying here, be prepared to buy again in this spot, and that would be fantastic.

我们快速看一下ETH的200日移动平均线云在哪里。

Let's take a look really quickly at where that two hundred day moving average cloud is, on ETH.

你知道，它还在更下面一点。

You know, it's a bit further down.

所以我觉得我之前分享的BTC策略在这里也适用于以太坊。

So I think the same strategy that I shared for BTC applies to Ethereum here.

我的意思是，看看2025年第四季度的这个完美阻力位，以及2026年1月的完美阻力位。

I mean, look at this perfect resistance in Q4 twenty twenty five, perfect resistance in January 2026.

如果我们有机会回落到21.26到22.95之间，我觉得那又是一个非常好的买入机会。

If we do have an opportunity to come back down between twenty one point two six and twenty two point nine five, I think again, that's another really great buying opportunity.

所以，你知道，作为投资者，我并不是一次性买入的。

So, you know, this for me as an investor, right, like I don't really make single purchases.

我喜欢分批建仓，在关键价位逐步定投。

I like scaling in and DCA ing at key levels over time.

今天我能自信地说的是，逢低买入的机会对我来说非常有吸引力。

What I feel comfortable saying today is, buy the dip opportunities are super attractive for me personally.

现在关键就是提前把那些重要价位定好，然后提前决定，如果价格跌到那里，我就打算买入。

And now it just comes down to outlining the key levels where you, you know, basically commit in advance to saying, if we get down there, I'm planning to buy.

因为到时候肯定会有一些吓人的新闻，如果价格真的回到那两百天移动平均线区域，很多投资者会吓得不敢买。

Because there's going to be some scary headline where if we do trade back in that two hundred day moving average cloud, investors are going to be too scared to buy here, a lot of them.

我更愿意做那种在这种环境下还能保持冷静的投资者，而不是像其他人那样慌慌张张、不知所措，然后在别人紧张得不敢出手的时候，我还能从容地配置资金。

And I'd rather be the type of investor who's able to maintain my composure in that kind of environment, while other people are running around like a chicken with their head cut off, and be able to allocate when other people are a bit, too nervous to do so.

你知道吗，加密货币有个奇怪的地方，就是你在里面待得越久，账户好像就越多。

You know, one of the weird things about crypto is that the longer you're in it, the more accounts you seem to end up with.

你在一个地方买，在另一个地方交易，又在别的地方赚收益，如果真的需要资金，最后可能不得不卖掉一些本来想留着的资产。

You buy in one place, trade somewhere else, earn yield somewhere else, and if you actually need capital, you end up having to sell something that you probably wanted to keep.

这就是为什么我们Milk Road和Nexo合作。

That's why we at Milk Road are partnering with Nexo.

他们能把所有东西都放在一个账户里。

These guys keep the whole thing under one account.

你可以买卖加密货币，在你已有的资产上赚利息，甚至可以用你的资本做抵押借款，而不需要卖掉它。

You can buy, trade crypto, earn interest on what you already hold, and even borrow against your capital without having to sell it.

所有东西都在一个地方，一个账户里，全都在Nexo上。

All in one spot, all in one account, all on Nexo.

所以如果你需要流动性，但不想放弃你的仓位，或者你已经持有加密货币，想用它做更多事情，我觉得Nexo值得你花时间看看。

So if you need liquidity but you don't wanna give up your position or you're already holding crypto and you wanna be able to do more with it, I think Nexo is worth your time.

我们很喜欢和他们合作。

We love working with them.

我觉得你也会喜欢的。

I think you will too.

告诉他们，是Milk Road推荐你来的。

Tell them Milk Road sent you.

Caleb，分析得很精彩，非常有帮助。我不仅喜欢看你的价格目标之类的，还喜欢你思考市场的方式，我觉得这非常有帮助，尤其是在这种牛市突破中的回调时期。

Caleb, fantastic analysis, very helpful, and I love just not only looking at your your price targets and and and all of that, but how you think about the markets, I think, very helpful, especially during moments of a pullback in a in a bullish breakout like this.

我想谈谈宏观背景，因为现在很多加密货币投资者都很犹豫、害怕、焦虑，担心债券收益率上升，美联储加息。

I wanna talk about the macro backdrop because a lot of people in crypto right now are hesitant, scared, hand wringy about rising bond yields, the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates.

而且，你知道，我听到一些我信任和尊敬的人说，他们仍然持有比特币5.5万美元的目标价，这对我来说听起来很疯狂。

And, you know, I've heard, you know, people who I I trust and respect say that they're still holding a target of 55 k on Bitcoin, which sounds wild to me.

那你现在怎么看宏观环境？像债券收益率上升这些因素，对你分析比特币和这轮牛市有多重要？

But how are you thinking about the macro backdrop here, and how significant are these things like rising bond yields to your your analysis of Bitcoin and its bull market here?

我觉得现在的宏观环境，跟往常一样，确实让大家一头雾水，搞不清到底怎么回事。

So I think macro right now, as usual, actually, is is putting people in the whirlwind in in terms of trying to figure out what the hell is going on.

所以很多时候我都会说，投资者最好几乎完全别去关注宏观经济。

And this is why, like, you know, a lot of times I say, like, investors would probably be better off paying almost zero attention to macroeconomics.

但不幸的是，我自己没法完全不管，因为我的专业就是这个，而且这也是我特别着迷的一个领域。

Unfortunately, my hands are a bit tied because that's what I have my degree in, and it's one of my areas of obsession.

所以我很喜欢看宏观，分析宏观经济状况之类的。

So I enjoy looking at macro, analyzing macroeconomic conditions, etcetera.

但你知道，尤其是作为一个以前很悲观的人，以前听吉姆·里卡兹、彼得·希夫、吉姆·罗杰斯这些人观点的人，我确实得调整自己看待宏观经济的方式，才能成为一个更好的投资者。

But, you know, especially as somebody who used to be a former doomer, someone who used to listen to people like the Jim Rickards, and the Peter Schiffs, and the Jim Rogers of the world, I really had to adapt how I viewed macroeconomic conditions in order to become a better investor.

所以我觉得现在比以往任何时候都更需要接受复杂性。

And so I think right now, more than ever, we do need to embrace nuance.

我觉得现在经济状况的实际情况是，经济表现比大家认为的要好得多。

And I think what's happening in economic conditions is that the economy is doing much better than anybody's given it credit for.

它并不完美。

It's not perfect.

我甚至不会说它非常强劲。

I wouldn't even go as far as to say it's super strong.

我也明白，经济并不需要完美或非常强劲。

I also recognize that the economy doesn't need to be perfect or super strong.

它只需要……

It just needs to...

为了让我赚钱，它只需要支持市场上已经存在的看涨条件。

In order for me to make money, it just needs to be supportive of the bullish conditions that we have in the markets.

我不交易GDP。

I don't trade GDP.

我不交易初次申请失业金人数。

I don't trade initial unemployment claims.

我不交易零售销售数据。

I don't trade retail sales.