本集简介
双语字幕
仅展示文本字幕，不包含中文音频；想边听边看，请使用 Bayt 播客 App。
先不提AI资本开支的热潮，也不说杠杆的解除，更不谈推动加密货币的强劲基本面，总统任期的第三年历来是对市场最有利的年份，无论是共和党还是民主党都一样，这一规律从二战时期一直延续至今。
Setting aside the AI CapEx boom, setting aside the unwind of leverage, setting aside the bullish fundamentals that are driving crypto, the third year of a presidential term is always the most bullish for markets, and it doesn't matter if it's a republican or a democrat, and that's been true going all the way back to World War two.
大家好，最近怎么样？
What's up, everybody?
我是LG DusETH，欢迎收听Milk Road Show，这是一档每日加密节目，我们曾向妈妈保证不再使用杠杆。
It's LG DusETH here, and welcome to the Milk Road Show, the daily crypto show that promised mom we would not use leverage again.
但我可没说过这个保证什么时候开始生效。
But I never said when I was actually gonna start that promise.
今天是2026年10月19日。
Today is 10/19/2026.
如果比特币触及83,500美元，那大家可要坐稳了。
If Bitcoin hits 83,500, hold on to your ass.
这是约翰在我们开始录制前几分钟亲口对我说的，今天节目中我们会密切关注价格走势。
That's what John literally told me moments ago before we started recording, and we're gonna be watching the price very closely as we go today on the show.
加密货币维持在这个区间不仅仅是频繁出现...
And crypto holding this range is not only been occur...
这对约翰和我以及整个加密货币社区来说都挺鼓舞人心的。
Encouraging to people like John and myself and the rest of the crypto community.
这有点验证了我们的想法，因为股市现在看起来有点不稳，但远没有其他宏观经济那么糟，看看是谁在逆势而上。
It's a little bit validating because equities are looking a little bit shaky right now and not nearly as bad as the rest of the macro, and look at who's bucking the trend.
还是我们熟悉的加密货币。
Good old crypto.
我们会聊到这些，还有更多内容。
We'll talk about all that and more.
最后我们还会留出时间，在我们的Milk Road Pro盘中后环节聊聊我们最喜欢的山寨币和投资组合，你只需花一美元就能通过下面的链接访问。
And even make time at the end to talk our favorite alts and portfolio in our Milk Road Pro after hours, an extra session you get access to for just a dollar at the link below.
另外，提醒大家点赞和订阅，因为我们很感激你们的支持。
Otherwise, just a little reminder to like and subscribe because we love your support.
我们爱我们的观众。
We love our audience.
你们对我们来说意味着一切，每一个小小的点赞和订阅都非常重要。
You guys have been everything to us, and all those little likes and all those little subs always matter a lot.
关于我就说这么多。
Enough of me.
约翰，最近怎么样，兄弟？
John, what's up, buddy?
我可没说“抓紧你的屁股”。
I did not say hold on to your ass.
我绝不会
I would never
你确实跟我说过。
You said that to me.
粗俗。
Crass.
我说的是“抓紧你的屁股们”。
I said hold on to your butts.
那是《侏罗纪公园》的梗。
That's a Jurassic Park reference
对我说。
to me.
那是……
That's...
屁股也没那么糟糕。
Ass is not that bad.
好吧，那还是屁股。
Well, it's still a butt.
如果比特币开始向上突破，你尽管抓紧你所有的东西。
You can hold on to whatever you got if Bitcoin starts to break out to the upside.
那是我最期待的事情。
That's what I'm excited about.
但是，你好呀，LG。
But hello, LG.
早上好。
Good morning.
你好吗？
How are you?
你好。
Hello.
是的。
Yes.
你好。
Hello.
好了，咱们开始进入正题吧。
Anyways, let's get into it.
为什么83,500美元这个价位对你来说这么重要？
Why is $83,500 such an important level to you?
为什么这个数字这么关键？
Why is that why is that matter?
因为多头一直在守81,000这个位置，而空头一直没能把价格压到80,000以下。
Because the bulls have been defending 81 k, and the bears have not been able to break us down below 80 k.
而且看起来股市和风险资产整体都出现了很多杠杆解除，而比特币只是在稳守，像蜜獾一样横盘震荡，根本不在乎外面发生了什么。
And it seems like we've seen a lot of leverage unwinding in the equities markets and risk assets in general, and Bitcoin is just holding up and honey badgering here and chopping sideways and not giving up an ass about what's going on.
所以……
So...
但我认为，如果我们看到比特币开始向上走，并开始打破之前测试的那些水平，并且能守住它们，那可能是一个信号，表明我们即将走高并向上突破。
But I think that if we see Bitcoin start to move to the upside and start to flip some of these levels that it had had been testing before and holding them, that could be a sign that we're about to move higher and break out to the upside.
比特币的布林带正在压缩到非常紧、非常接近的水平，看起来比特币就要在这里选择方向了。
The Bollinger Bands on Bitcoin are compressing to levels that are really tight, really close, and it seems like Bitcoin is gonna pick a direction here.
如果它选择向上，我们可能会看到比特币突破90、92、95，并且真正走出一个可观的上涨行情。
If it chooses to go to the upside, we could see Bitcoin break 90, 92, 95, and really make a sizable move higher here.
所以觉得这值得关注。
So think it's something to watch out for.
现在我们的交易价在81千以上、82千以下，但还不清楚……
Right now, we're trading a little bit above 81 k, below 82 k, but it's it's not clear yet what...
接下来会发生什么。
What's gonna happen.
我……
I...
我一直觉得可能会回踩78000，那大概是我会关注的支撑位。
I've been expecting, you know, maybe we retest 78, you know, that would be kinda like the support I'd be looking to on the downside.
空头一直没能让我们接近那个位置。
The bears haven't been able to get us even close to that.
所以现在我觉得风险在于可能会迎来反弹。
So now I think that the risk is maybe we get a recovery here.
也许一些宏观上的不利因素开始消散。
Maybe we start to see some of these macro headwinds start to clear.
比特币可能会突破83050美元，并且将其作为支撑，然后我们可能会冲上九万。
Maybe Bitcoin flips $83.05, holds that as support, and then maybe we make a run up into the nineties.
所以这就是我一直在关注的，那会是我重点关注的信号。
So that's kinda what I've been watching for, and and that would be the thing I'd be looking for.
如果我们能突破83050美元附近，并维持住这个支撑，那就要坐稳了，因为接下来的目标可能是九万五千左右。
If we flip 83 k $83.05 ish, hold that as support, hold on to your butt because the mid nineties could be next.
哇。
Wow.
我喜欢这个。
I like that.
对于可能不了解的人来说，布林带是什么？
What are Bollinger Bands for people that maybe don't know that?
不是每个人都像你一样是技术分析狂热者。
Not everybody's a TA Maxi like you.
布林带……
The Bollinger Bands...
彼得·布林是一位技术分析师，他发明了这些布林带，它基本上就像……
So Peter Bollinger is a a technical analyst who came up with these Bollinger Bands, and it's basically like...
我现在一时想不起来具体是什么，但它就像跟踪价格历史，比如最近价格所在的第90百分位或第10百分位之类的。
I can't remember right right now off the top of my head what it is, but it's like trailing price history of, like, the the, like, ninetieth percentile or 10 percentile or whatever it is of, like, where the price has been recently.
基本上，它表明波动性正在下降，那些跟踪指标开始围绕比特币的价格走势收窄。
And, basically, what it's saying is that the volatility is coming down and those those trailing indicators are starting to compress around where Bitcoin's price action is.
最终，当布林带越来越靠近时，价格会选择一个方向，波动性会增大，然后这个区间会扩大，图表基本上会向某个方向突破。
And, eventually, when the Bollinger Bands get closer and closer together, eventually, price picks a direction and volatility picks up, and then that spread widens and the chart basically breaks out one way or the other.
这通常是个好指标，说明这种情况很可能发生，因为这意味着历史波动性，也就是图表和该市场价格行为的正常表现，已经到了比历史水平更低的位置。
It's usually, like, a good indicator that that is is likely to happen when that compression starts to happen because it means that the historic volatility, like, normal behavior of the chart and the price action for that market is getting to a place where it's it's gotten lower than it is historically.
所以通常它会回归均值，价格行为移动，波动性上升，布林带再次变宽。
And so usually that reverts to the mean, price action moves, the volatility picks up, and the bullish bands widen again.
所以是的，这不一定意味着价格会上涨或下跌。
So, yeah, it doesn't necessarily mean it's gonna go up or down.
只是说比特币短期内可能接近一个价格决策点。
It just means, like, Bitcoin should be nearing a decision point on price in in the future here in the short term.
我们有没有看到……
And did we see...
像布林带这样的指标，在之前那次大幅上涨之前，整个夏天会不会也有类似的压缩？
Would something like Bollinger Bands have the same compression leading up to...
比如在那次大涨之前……
Like, through the summer before that big move to the upside before...
我通常把它叫做特朗普超流动性日，尽管它其实不完全是那回事。
I always call it just the Trump hyper liquid day, even though it's not really part of it.
它确实跟那有关，但又不完全是那回事。
It was part of it, but it was it wasn't it.
但那就是...
But that is that...
因为我们看到...
Because we saw...
基本上，我从...理解到的是...
Like, basically, what I understood from from...
主要从我们做的第二季播客里，就感觉到波动性一直在累积。
Mainly from q two podcast that we were doing is that you just had volatility just building up.
价格一直这么压缩，感觉就像，天哪，很快总得往一个方向剧烈波动一下。
You just had this compression of price that was like, man, something has to happen one way or another aggressively soon.
你现在是不是也看到了类似的情况？
Are you kinda seeing the same thing right now?
你是这个意思吗？
Is that what you're saying?
所以，是的，在八月份那场市场事件之前，也就是比特币价格历史上最大的一次空头清算事件，比特币的波动率已经降到了……
So, yeah, leading up to that market event in August, which was the largest, short liquidation event in the history of Bitcoin's price action, the volatility on Bitcoin had dropped to...
我记得大概是第九十六百分位。
I think it was, like, the ninety sixth percentile.
换句话说，比特币交易史上96%的时间里，波动率都比当时要高。
In other words, for 96% of Bitcoin's trading history, it had been more volatile than it was at the time.
而我们……
And we...
我们……
What we...
一直发生的情况是，比特币一直在爬台阶……
Keeps happening is Bitcoin keeps stairs...
一级一级往上走，然后横盘整理。
Stair stepping and then ranging.
而在横盘期间，波动性在下降。
And while it's ranging, its volatility is declining.
当波动性降到一定程度后，最后要么向上爆发，要么向下爆发，波动性还会回来，然后又重新构建一个底部。
And so that volatility declines to a certain point to where, like, eventually, it explodes one way or the other, and and that volatility comes back, and then it kinda rebuilds a base.
RSI消耗掉了，然后又重新开始这个过程。
RSI burns off, and it's kinda doing it again.
这就是比特币市场行为的模式。
That's been the pattern of market behavior for Bitcoin.
但再说一次，这并不必然给你一个指示，告诉你它会向上突破还是向下突破。
But, again, it doesn't necessarily give you an indicator if it's gonna if it's gonna break up or break down.
所以，关于这一点要说明的是，波动性飙升可能是看涨的，也可能是看跌的。
So, like, that's the thing to say about this is that volatility spiking could be bullish, could be bearish.
它并没有一个明确的方向。
It doesn't really have a vector to it.
它只是意味着有什么事要发生了。
It just means that something's gonna happen.
市场会变的。
The market's gonna change.
会有一个市场事件发生。
It will have a market event.
但这就是我在这里寻找的东西。
But that's kind of what I'm I'm looking for here.
我不认为我们会看到像之前那样大的或剧烈的波动。
I don't think we'll get nearly as big or as violent a move.
我可能错了。
I mean, I could be wrong.
我们可能。
We could.
但我不认为我们会像八月份那样经历那么剧烈的波动。不过，考虑到比特币历史上的行为，以及许多波动性指标和布林带压缩等因素，加上它已经横盘了这么久，而市场目前变化如此之多，看起来比特币在不久的将来很可能会选择一个方向。我有点持谨慎看涨的态度。
But I don't think we'll get as violent a move as we got in August, but it just seems to me, like, because of the the historic behavior of Bitcoin, because a lot of these indicators of volatility and Bollinger Bands compressing and so forth, and just because it's been ranging for so long and so much is is changing in the markets here, it does seem like Bitcoin's likely to pick a direction in the near future here, and I'm kind of, like, I'm suspiciously bullish.
我觉得那是……
I think that that's...
也许我现在是少数派，但我觉得……
Maybe it puts me in a minority right now, but I I think that there's there's...
加密货币上行的风险，我觉得比大多数人现在认为的要大。
The the the risk to the upside is is larger than I think most people are discounting for crypto right now.
比特币这次回调吓到了很多人，但我不是其中之一。
This pullback on Bitcoin is scaring a lot of people, and I am not one of them.
所以，如果你想看看我为什么没卖、我在关注什么，以及我什么时候会往这些市场投入更多资金，今天就加入Milk Road PRO吧。
So if you wanna see what I'm not selling and why, what's on my watch list, and when I'm gonna be deploying more capital into these markets, you can join Milk Road PRO today.
只要一美元。
It's just a dollar.
链接在描述里。
The link is in the description.
我在Discord里随时回答问题，不分昼夜。
I answer questions day and night in Discord.
我们那里见。
I'll see you there.
如果让你挑一件市场现在最想搞清楚的事情，那会是什么？
If you had to pick one thing that the market is trying to figure out right now, what would it be?
因为市场讨厌不确定性，过去几个月我们已经看到了一些预期的催化剂事件。
Because when markets hate uncertainty, we've seen we've seen in the last couple months these kind of anticipated catalysts.
比如加息、清晰法案这些，我们每周都聊，但就是那种感觉，对吧。
John, like like rate hikes, Clarity Act, we talk about this every week, but it's just like, okay.
那些是...
What's...
那些一直悬而未决的事情。
You know, those are the things that were hanging.
然后当它们落地或者成为现实时，价格反而涨了或者挺稳的。
And then when they passed, when they came to pass, the price kind of went up or held pretty strong.
那么下一件市场最不确定的明显事件是什么呢？
So what what is the next most obvious thing that the market is is kind of uncertain about?
我觉得你要说中期选举了。
I feel like you're gonna say midterms.
除了中期选举，还有其他事情吗？
Besides midterms, is there anything that isn't midterms?
因为那是……
Because that's something...
那显然是即将到来的大事。
That's obviously the big kahuna coming.
但除此之外，有没有更针对加密货币的方面呢？
But is there anything besides that that's more crypto specific, let's say?
我觉得用一个词来说就是宏观因素，但这有点敷衍，因为宏观因素基本上涵盖了一切。
I think in a word, I would just say macro, but that's kind of a cop out because macro takes into account everything, basically.
但确实感觉像是多项宏观经济指标的汇聚……
But it really does feel like a confluence of macroeconomic indicate...
比如，对市场的影响，构成了一个风险回避的背景，直白地说就是这样。
Like, influences in the markets, that are presenting a backdrop for the markets that are, let's say, risk off, to just put it directly.
我这几周每个周一都在写这个。
Like, I've been writing about this every Monday for several weeks now.
我一直在说，嘿。
I've been like, hey.
加密货币在这里表现得很不错，但宏观背景现在非常避险，而且一直在恶化。
Crypto is holding up really well here, but the macro backdrop is very risk off right now, and that's, you know, been deteriorating.
现在你开始在纳斯达克、风险资产、DRAM，特别是内存中看到这种情况。
And now you're starting to see that in, in the Nasdaq, in, risk assets, in DRAM, in memory specifically.
现在，这种回落也开始影响到标普500指数了。
And a little bit of that pullback is now starting to get to the S and P.
但你看，我觉得这才是真正引起这里不确定性的原因。
But, you know, look, I think that's really what's causing the uncertainty here.
有人担心neo clouds的信用违约风险。
There are fears about credit default risk in, you know, neo clouds.
关于油价、霍尔木兹海峡关闭和伊朗冲突，也存在不确定性。
There is uncertainty about the situation with the price of oil and the closure of the Strait Of Hormuz and Iran conflict.
还有……
There is...
市场发生了很多大事。
There's been a lot of market events.
而且这不仅仅局限于美国市场。
This is not just US market specific either, by the way.
还有……
There's been...
比如，中国市场已经连续十周下跌，一直在抛售。
Like, the Chinese market has had ten consecutive weeks of red, you know, selling off.
韩国KOSPI指数也出现了很多下行波动。
The the KOSPI has seen a lot of volatility to the downside.
印尼股市、土耳其股市都发生了历史性的暴跌。
There's been market events, historic market crashes in the Indonesian stock market, the the Turkish stock market.
整个欧洲现在也有点混乱。
All of Europe is in a little bit of chaos right now.
所以，我觉得宏观形势已经糟糕到只能变好的地步了。
So just the macro picture, right, has gotten so bad, I think, that it can only really get better.
希望如此吧。
I mean, like, knock on wood.
但我觉得大概就是这样。
But that's kind of what it feels like to me.
一旦这个局面开始好转，一旦不确定性开始变得清晰，我觉得这里的情况就会好很多。
Once that picture starts to improve, once that certainty starts to come into focus, I think things get a lot better here.
另外，还有利率和通胀的问题。
The other thing is, like, interest rates and inflation.
CPI和PPI的通胀数据比大家期望或预期的还要高。
Inflation prints on CPI and PPI have been hotter than people wanted or expected.
就业报告看起来……
The jobs reports seem...
而且，失业救济申请人数似乎还维持得不错。
And, like, jobless claims seem to be holding up reasonably well.
所以，目前我看在这方面没有太大的担忧，这可能是这里唯一还算稳的地方了。
Like, there's no, like, major concerns that I'm seeing on that front right now, which is, like, maybe the one thing that's still solid here.
但是，是的，宏观层面的很多事情已经从稳固或中性变成了有点令人担忧。
But, yeah, it's just like a lot of things on the macro picture have gone from solid or neutral to sort of, like, concerning.
我觉得我们需要开始看到这些情况转好，这样市场才能好转，风险资产和加密货币的牛市才能继续。
And I think that that's kind of what we need to start to see flipping positive for this to clear up and for the the the bull market to continue in risk assets and in crypto overall.
不过，就具体的加密货币而言，我认为有很多积极的东西，只是需要时间来实现。
But as far as, like, specific crypto, I think that there is a lot of stuff that's really positive that just, you know, give it time to play out.
比如，美国证券交易委员会和商品期货交易委员会已经转向非常积极的态度。
Like, the SEC and the CFTC have pivoted to get very positive.
他们在监管方面铺开了红地毯。
They're rolling out the red carpet from a regulatory perspective.
行业在代币价值对齐、代币增值、回购以及确保发行的代币也有价值捕获和投资逻辑方面发生了巨大转变。
There's been a huge shift in the industry towards token value alignment, token accrual, buybacks, and making sure that the token that is issued also has value capture and, you know, an investment thesis to it.
在加密货币领域，这总体上一直是重点。
Just broadly across crypto, that's been a focus.
还有，代币化和现实世界资产上链、企业上链、大型金融机构推出新产品等方面也有很多进展。
And then there's a lot of things with tokenization and the migration of real world assets on chain, businesses coming on chain, major financial institutions launching new products.
比如嘉信理财，我记得上周他们平台开放了比特币、以太坊和加密货币的购买，覆盖了四千万用户。
Like, Charles Schwab, I think last week, enabled buying of Bitcoin and Ethereum and crypto on their platform for 40,000,000 people who use their platform.
所以，准入门槛在降低，投资逻辑也在增强。
So, like, the the the access is opening, the investment thesis is strengthening.
所以对加密货币来说，这些都是利好因素。
So all of these things for crypto are strong.
一旦宏观逆风消散，我认为加密货币的牛市有理由继续，那将是非常建设性的，大量资金会重新流回这个资产类别。
And once these macro headwinds sort of clear up, I do think that the the bull market in crypto has permission to continue, and that'll just be, you know, very constructive and a lot of momentum will will come back to the to the asset class.
对。
Yes.
有没有……
Is there...
我想回到宏观话题上。
I just wanna circle back to the macro stuff.
有没有……
Is there...
我感觉你指出的都是我们早就知道的事情。
I mean, I feel like you're pointing at things that we've known for a while.
有没有什么特别的因素在推动微...
Is there anything in particular that is driving the micro...
...宏观面现在这么差？
The macro down so poorly now?
因为每个星期一的《Milk Road》日报，我们的每周通讯，开头都是John写的宏观报告，那个报告是付费的...
Because even every Monday for boo let don't know, our Milk Road daily newsletter kicks off with John writing a macro report that's pay...
基于我们的MRMI，也就是《Milk Road》宏观指数，它考虑了...
Based on our MRMI, the Milk Road Macro Index, which takes into effect...
基本上考虑了大约40个不同的宏观因素。
Which takes into account basically like like 40 different macro things.
所以它就像是...
So it's like the...
把宏观数据压缩到一张图表里。
You know, it's the macro compression into just one chart.
而且你可以……
And you can...
在平台上，你可以把它和标普指数对比。
And in the platform, you can compare it to S and P.
通常，John，我发现在历史上，MRMI——这个工具真正有帮助的地方在于，它的风险偏好或风险规避指标会稍微提前于标普指数的走势。
And usually usually I find, John, if you look historically that the MRMI, what's what's actually been helpful with the tool is that it's it's risk off or risk on indicator will will precede moves in the S and P a little bit.
所以基本上，它已经连续几周处于红色区域了。
So that basically, it's been in the red for a couple weeks.
而且通常，从历史数据来看，这意味着标普指数即将小幅下跌，尽管现在还没有真正下跌。
And usually, if you look historically, that means the S and P is about to go for a little bit of a of a dip, even though it it hasn't really.
它仍然在7500到7600点这个区间附近。
It's still around this, you know, 75, 7,600 range.
但你今天的报告看起来比过去几周更加悲观。
But you you seemed even more bearish today than you have been in past weeks in your write up.
具体是什么原因导致的呢？
What specifically is doing that?
因为你提到的很多因素，那些都不是新出现的。
Because a lot of the factors you mentioned, like, those aren't new.
伊朗战争从三月份就开始了。
The war in Iran has been going on since March.
新的是市场终于崩了，我用的是‘崩了’这个词，在……
What's been new is that the markets have finally, puked is the word I used in the The
市场终于跟上了，却再也撑不住了……
market is finally catching up and can't can't hang out...
基本上就是撑不住了。
Can't hang on anymore, basically.
所以有……
So there's...
就是一次大规模抛售，大规模去杠杆。
It's just been a big sell off, a big deleveraging.
实际上，现在有很多传言说，一些大型交易公司内部的某些部门……我不想提具体名字，因为我没有任何依据来支持这些说法。
Actually, there's a lot of rumors right now that some desks within some major trading firms, you know, I don't wanna name any specific names because I don't have any, like, anything to back this up.
但有传言说有人爆仓了，一些对冲基金……
But there are rumors that some people have blown up and that some hedge funds...
对冲基金或者基金内部的某些部门，可能已经因为我们现在看到的去杠杆化而被清算了。
Head funds or some desks within those funds might have been carried out with the the unwind of leverage that we're seeing.
整体来看，对冲基金的仓位已经从做多转向了中性。
And the the posture of hedge funds overall has shifted from long back towards neutral.
我觉得这就像是……
And I think that this is like...
在过去的五年里，这是对冲基金在多头和空头持仓上最防守的姿态，可以这么说。
In in the five years of prior history, this is the most, like, defensive, let's call it, stance that hedge funds have been in terms of their positioning long and short.
所以他们平掉了一些多头，减仓了一些多头，还开了一些空头。
So they've closed some longs, scaled back some longs, and opened some shorts.
所以这就……
And so that...
这里发生了一个仓位调整。
That's been a rotation here.
是的，我认为这是推动这一切的一个主要因素。
So, yeah, I think that that's a big part of what's driving this.
我不认为这一定是AI泡沫破裂或AI资本支出泡沫破裂。
I don't think that it's necessarily the AI bubble bursting or AI CapEx bursting.
我认为这仍然处于早期阶段，但看起来正在改变的是市场中的杠杆、投机和仓位。
I think that is still very much in the early innings, but what seems to be changing here is leverage and speculation and positioning in the markets.
所以这就是我们的Milk Road宏观指数所反应的，就是市场持续回落，并考虑到这一点，因为……
And so that's what our Milk Road macro index is reacted to is like that continuing pullback on the markets and and just, you know, taking that into account because it's it's...
市场风险厌恶情绪在上升，所以我们的指标也在转向风险厌恶。
The market is getting more risk off, so our indicator is getting more risk off.
风险厌恶情绪更高了。
More risk off.
而且你认为……
And you think that that, and you're...
所以你是说很多对冲基金现在正在开空仓？
So you're saying that a lot of those hedge funds are are opening shorts right now?
他们在调整方向。
They're they're pivoting.
我不是说所有人都要做空市场。
I mean, I'm not saying, like, everybody's going short the market.
我只是说仓位已经更多偏向那个方向了。
I'm just saying that that the positioning has has shifted more in that direction.
就这么说吧。
Let's just put it that way.
净仓位。
The net positioning.
那你会不会…
And would you...
我们之前准备节目聊天的时候，你把这种情况比作是股市里的杠杆在解除，而且巧合的是，和一年前加密货币市场看到的杠杆解除情况很相似。
You compared this when we were chatting before kinda getting ready for the show that basically we're seeing an unwinding in leverage in the equities market, ironically or coincidentally, similar to the ten ten unwind of leverage that we saw in crypto a year ago.
我想股市里的规模应该比加密货币大得多。
I would assume in equities, it's it's a much larger scale, as well than than than crypto.
不过，能再详细说说这个吗？
But maybe tell me a little bit more about that.
我……
I...
我觉得最近的一个类似例子就是，虽然十月份那次去杠杆化事件不太有序，而且更，怎么说呢……
So I think it's just like what comes to mind as a recent analog, even though the October 10 deleveraging event that we had was less less orderly and more, let's just say
非常激进。
Very aggressive.
确实很激进。
It was it was aggressive.
当时发生了很多事情。
There was there was a lot that happened.
自动去杠杆化真的很厉害。
Automatic deleveraging is a hell of a drug.
总之，我想说的是，在十月十日那天，发生了大规模的清算事件，很多做多市场的永续合约头寸触发了自动去杠杆化。
Anyway, basically, what I was saying with that is that on October 10, we had this huge liquidation event and auto deleveraging was kicked in for a lot of perps positions that were were long the markets.
现在在股市和AI股票上，似乎也出现了类似的情况，日期也差不多。
And a similar thing seems to be playing out here around a similar date on the calendar for the equities markets in AI stocks right now.
市场上堆积了大量的杠杆和很多多头仓位。
There's just been a lot of leverage and a lot of longs.
有些人正在被强制平仓。
Some are getting liquidated.
有些人正从这些仓位中撤出，转而重新偏向做空。
Some are rotating out of those positions and and leaning back towards short.
所以，这就像是在清理市场上的一些杠杆。
So And it's just kind of like a a clearing of some of the leverage in the market here.
虽然起因不同。
It's not caused by the same things.
规模也没那么大，但碰巧发生在差不多同一时间，净效果也类似。
It's not on the same size or scale, but it just happens to be around the same time in the calendar and, you know, similar sort of net effect.
而且不管是什么原因，好像这个市场在十月就会崩盘，看起来像是……
And I don't know whatever it is, but like but like, you know, this market crashes in October, it seems to be...
我不知道。
I don't know.
有时候就是这样。
It's it's a thing sometimes.
也许这就是新常态。
Maybe that's the new norm.
十月通常应该是看涨的月份。
October is supposed to be like a bullish month typically.
但听上去这就是新常态，至少我们在Milk Road这段时间是这样的，John。
But it just sounds like sounds like the new norm or at least in the in the in the time that we've been at Milk Road, John.
十月更像是让人心惊胆战的月份。
October is a bit bit more of a a spooky month.
我觉得季节性规律只有百分之六七十的时候才有效。
I think seasonality only works about 60, 70% of the time.
而且我认为在大选年或中期选举年，情况会非常不同。
And I do think in a election or a midterm year, it's, you know, much different.
所以我觉得……
So I...
谁知道呢？
Who knows?
十月份的情况也各不相同。
The October's are not all created equal.
就这么说吧。
Let's just put it that way.
你还坚持你那个……
Are you still holding your...
接下来的几周，我每周都会问你这个问题，直到我们把它搞清楚。
And I'll ask you about this every week for the next couple weeks until we go through it.
你仍然坚持你的立场，认为 Polymarket 是错的，民主党不会横扫中期选举吗？
Are you still holding your your stance that polymarket is wrong and that the Dems will not sweep the midterms?
我还是认为民主党会赢得众议院。
I do still think that the Democrats will win the house.
这个我觉得挺有可能的，但我觉得他们在参议院没有那么明显的优势。
That seems likely to me, but I don't think that they have such a clear path in the senate.
而且我觉得这基本上算是共识了。
And I think that that's, like, pretty consensus.
只是博彩赔率说他们赢参议院有六成概率，我觉得这个有点太高了。
It's just that the the betting odds are saying, like, 60% that they win the senate, and I think that that's a little bit rich.
我觉得这更像是一场五五开的对决。
Like, I think it's much more of a coin flip.
基本上就是一半一半。
It's basically fifty fifty.
我……
I...
他们可能会赢
They may win
91年。
the 91.
就几个……
It's a few...
就几个席位，那个65%。
It's a handful of seats, that 65%.
这就是……
That's the...
或者至少是他们预期要拿下的席位。
Or at least, like, what they're projected to do.
其实就只有那么几个席位。
It's it's only a handful of seats.
不像众议院那边，差距要大得多。
It's not it's not versus the house is is a lot more.
所以对。
So Right.
所以只需要两三个席位就能彻底翻转那个局面。
So just a couple seats is is is what flips that one for sure.
对。
Yes.
而且如果你看所有这些，有很多竞选差距都在误差范围之内。
And if you look at all those, there's a lot of races that are just within the margin of error.
比如那些民调本身，我们根本看不出谁领先。
Like, the pulsars themselves, like, we we can't tell who's ahead here.
所以大多数人把优势给民主党，只是因为这成了普遍看法。
And so most people are giving it to the Dems just because that's the conventional wisdom.
但我觉得如果你看看最近的期中选举，比如拜登执政期间，他们当时预期会有个红色浪潮。
But I think that, you know, if you look at recent recent midterm elections, like, they were expecting a big red wave, during Biden's administration.
结果更像是红色细流，我觉得这次也会类似。
It was more like a red trickle, and I think we'll see something similar here.
民主党会稍微拿回一些权力，但不会是他们获得巨大席位增长那种。
Like, the Democrats will up some power, but it it won't be, like, a huge, huge gain of seats for them.
在选举前有没有办法尝试结束战争，还是说已经太晚了？
Is it too late to try and end the war in some way before this?
而且，再次，伙计们，抱歉我们又在聊政治，但对我个人来说，约翰，老实讲，除了你提到的宏观经济和加密货币的采用这些，我总是在寻找下一个重大的、市场都在期待但又充满不确定性的标志。
And and again, like, guys, I'm sorry we're talking politics, but we're just looking for, like, you know, to me, John, honestly, like of all the other things you mentioned, the macro and and and the adoption of crypto, all that kind of stuff, it's like, I'm always just looking for the next big, big marker that the...
所有市场都在预期但又对其感到不确定。
All markets are anticipating and are uncertain about.
或者只是等待它发生，这样才能转向下一个目标，像是“我们接下来要朝这个方向努力”。
And or just waiting for it to happen so that it can then move to the next flag of, like, here's what we're gonna work towards.
对我来说，那就是我最期待的，不用再在聊股票、加密货币和其他事情时扯中期选举了。
And to me, that's that's the one that I'm excited to just not talk about midterms anymore when we talk about stocks and crypto and and all the other stuff.
所以，对，我们只是在政治方面稍微停一下，来讨论这个话题。
So, yeah, we're just doing a little pit stop on on the political side here to to to discuss this.
约翰……
John...
那么，约翰，从地缘政治的角度来看，似乎有……
So, John, on that geopolitical side, like, there is there...
现在这还有意义吗？
Is is it even still worth it at this point?
因为我的意思是，中期选举大概三周后就到了，而且就算战争结束，可能也不一定……
Because I mean, midterms are what, like, three weeks out and even ending the war may not...
那真的能那么大幅度地改变市场情绪吗？
I mean, would that really shift sentiment that much?
我觉得特朗普政府今天说了，和伊朗有关于某种持久和平突破的重新谈判，但他们这么说了已经七个月了，我不知道市场还会对此有多大反应。
I think that the Trump administration today said that there's renewed talks around a lasting breakthrough of some kind of peace agreement with Iran, but they've been saying this now for seven months, and I don't know how much more the market is gonna react to that.
所以是有可能的。
So it's possible.
听我说，我觉得特朗普政府会尽力在最后一刻采取各种措施，只要能帮助市场、帮助情绪、帮助他们在民调中的位置，他们想尽一切办法来救市。
Look, I think that the Trump administration is going to try to make a last minute effort to sort of kitchen sink this with whatever they can do to help markets, to help sentiment, to help their positioning in the polls.
就像……
Like...
所以我觉得他们不会认为太晚了。
So I don't think too late is how they're gonna look at this.
我觉得他们会付出这些努力的。
I think they are gonna make those efforts.
国务卿马可·卢比奥现在正在国外。
Marco Rubio, secretary of state, is abroad right now.
谁知道会有什么结果？
You know, who knows what comes of that?
但话说回来，我觉得特朗普总体上是想赢的。
But, you know, look, I think in general, Trump wants to win.
特朗普会尽力去赢。
Trump is going to try to win.
特朗普会尽一切可能让自己在中期选举中处于最佳位置。
Trump is gonna do whatever he can to give himself the best chance he can do in can do in the midterms.
所以我并不完全排除这种可能性，但我怀疑市场是否真的会相信，或者这对当前局势能有多大影响。
So I don't rule that out by any means, but I would question whether or not the market believes it or how much impact it can have on things right now.
不过我觉得，到现在这个阶段，大多数人基本上已经拿定主意了。
I think most of the people have sort of made up their minds, though, at this point.
你明白吗？
You know?
就是说，我相信他肯定会试试的。
It's like, I'm sure he'll try.
但有没有效果就不好说了。
I don't know how effective it'll be.
没错。
Exactly.
我觉得现在动手有点太晚了。
I think it's it's just it's just a little a little too late in the game.
你觉得……
Do you...
你怎么看……
How do you think...
约翰，我还记得两年前那个选举之夜。
And I'm just thinking back to election night two years ago, John.
我们现在把话题拉回加密货币吧。
We're gonna bring this back to crypto now.
那个预测市场当时明显偏向特朗普。
That, you know, poly market was was clearly in Trump's favor.
民意调查是五五开。
Polls were fifty fifty.
就像，选举……
As, like, the election...
比如，选举前一天晚上，我记得比特币开始有动静了，然后一整天都在发酵。
Like, the night before, I think it was, like, you started to see this move in Bitcoin, and then it played out through the day.
选举日结果陆续出来的时候，你觉得会怎样？
And as the results came in on election day, what would you anticipate?
咱们说说你的假设情景吧。
Let's go with your scenario.
民主党没有拿下参议院。
Democrats do not take the senate.
他们拿下了众议院。
They take the house.
加密货币在这种情况下会怎么反应？
How does crypto react through this?
再说一次，长期来看其实没什么影响，但具体会怎样？
And, again, it doesn't really have an effect long term, but, like, what?
你是怎么……
How do you how do you...
我一直很好奇，你觉得市场会怎么反应于这件事……
I'm always curious how do you think the market will react to this thing that...
就像几周前的Clarity，那是个好例子，当时大家都觉得这个要失败了。
Like, even Clarity a couple weeks ago is a good example where it's like, oh, this is gonna fail.
然后你看，确实砸了个大坑，但底部远在官方消息出来之前就到了，之后又一路飙升。
And and you had this crater, but it bottomed way before the official announcement, and then you had this boom just just shot up right after.
所以这是……
So is that...
在你的预测里，你觉得这种情况会怎么发展？
How would you expect this to play out given your scenario?
展开剩余字幕（还有 289 条）
我觉得这事儿肯定会让两边的人都大吃一惊，而且我觉得波动会加剧，这大概是我唯一能比较有把握说的一点。
I think that this is going to surprise a lot of people on both sides, and I think that the volatility will pick up, and that's about the only thing I can say with some degree of confidence.
我觉得我...
I think what I'm...
我觉得现在的情况是，有一部分资金在保持谨慎观望。
What I think is happening right now is that some degree of capital is just staying cautious.
他们有点担心美联储在12月加息，但我觉得市场不认为10月会加息，因为那是在大选之前。
They're a little bit worried about the Fed hiking rates in December or, you know, I think the market doesn't expect them to hike in October because it's before the election.
所以他们基本上是在定价下次美联储会议，也就是10月底那次，不加息，但他们很有信心地认为，超过80%的概率12月会加息。
So they're kind of pricing in them not hiking at the next FOMC meeting here at the end of October, but they are, like, with conviction, like, think over 80% pricing in a rate hike in December.
所以现在有很多资金我认为都在保持谨慎，不想跟美联储对着干。
So there's a lot of capital right now that I think is staying cautious to not fight the fed.
还有很多资金保持谨慎，就是等着中期选举这个事件过去再说。
There's a lot of capital that's staying cautious to just, like, wait for the midterms to to kinda clear as an event.
所以我觉得等这个事件过去，市场得到了一些确定性，会有一些波动，但很可能是上下波动的。
So I think as you get to this this event and kind of, like, get the certainty into the markets, there'll be some volatility, but it'll probably be volatility up and down.
而且我觉得你可能会看到买传言，卖消息，然后可能会在消息出来之后有一波上涨，之后选举结束后可能会有一波抛售。
And I think that you might see buy the rumor, sell the news, and then, you know, I think we could see a run up on the news, and then we could see a sell off after the election.
所以呢，接下来会有很多波动。
And so, like, there's there's gonna be a lot of volatility.
短期内很难预测具体走势。
It's hard to map that out in the short term.
但我确实认为，无论结果如何，不管是共和党拿下两院，还是民主党拿下两院，还是两院分裂——而我认为分裂是最可能的结果——
But I do think whatever the outcome is, it it doesn't matter if the if the Republicans win both houses, if the Democrats win both houses, if they split the house, is I think the most likely outcome here.
一旦市场得到这种确定性，知道事情会变成什么样，他们就能更清楚地了解会有什么样的政府、预期什么样的政策。
Once the market gets that certainty and that degree of of, like, you know, okay, this is what things are going to be like now, they're going to get a little bit more clarity on what kind of government you're gonna have, what kind of policy to expect.
他们会迅速把这些纳入定价，然后我认为这对未来一到两年是利好的。
They're gonna price that in quickly, and then I think that's bullish for the next one to two years.
这件事很重要，我觉得别在所有这些纷乱中被忽略了。
This is an important thing, I think, not to get lost in all of this.
抛开AI资本开支热潮、抛开杠杆解除、抛开推动加密货币的看涨基本面不谈，总统任期的第三年对市场来说总是最利好的，不管总统是共和党还是民主党，这个规律从二战以来一直如此。
Setting aside the AI CapEx boom, setting setting aside the unwind of leverage, setting aside the bullish fundamentals that are driving crypto, the third year of a presidential term is always the most bullish for markets, and it doesn't matter if it's a republican or a democrat, and that's been true going all the way back to world war two.
所以，如果特朗普总统任期的第三年不是一个牛市年份，那将是对历史常态的巨大偏离。
And so it would be a huge deviation from historical norms for the third year of the the Trump presidency to not be a bullish year for the markets.
仅从历史先例来看，2027年的前景在某种程度上应该默认偏向看涨。
The outlook for 2027, just on historical precedent, has to sort of be a default tilt towards some kind of bullishness here.
但这并不意味着整个一年都会如此。
That doesn't mean that it'll go the whole year.
这也不意味着会是一条直线，等等等等。
That doesn't mean that it'll be a straight line, etcetera, etcetera.
对此有很多需要注意的地方。
There's a lot of caveats to that.
但仅从历史角度来看，我认为有充分的理由预期2027年对市场来说会是建设性的一年。
But just historically speaking, I think there's strong reason to expect that 2027 should be a a constructive year for the markets.
为什么？
Why?
但为什么？
Why, though?
那为什么会出现这种情况呢？
Well, it's Why does that happen?
你…
You...
因为你刚才说季节性规律都是扯淡。
Because you were just talking about seasonality is bullshit.
所以就像，什么…
So it's like, what...
为什么总统任期的第三年会这样？
Why is this third year of a president?
它不是季节性规律，但就是，为什么…
It's not seasonality, but it's like, why...
我…
I I...
我确定…
I'm sure...
但是，是什么样的经济因素导致了这种情况？
But, like, what are the what are the economic factors that make that happen?
因为很明显，这是总统任期周期的一部分。
Because clearly, that's part of the presidential term cycle.
所以可以说有很多原因。
So there's a lot of things you could say.
最终的驱动力是什么，还是说这只是巧合？
What is the ultimate driver, or is it just line up that way?
是商业周期吗？
Is it the business cycle?
是选举周期吗？
Is it the election cycle?
它们只是同步进行吗？
Are they just moving in sync?
还是债务再融资周期？
Is it the debt refinancing cycle?
这个四年周期并不是比特币独有的。
The four year cycle is not unique to Bitcoin.
也就是说……
That's...
你看美国股市，过去整整一个世纪也是这样的。
You can see that in in the The US stock markets going back for a whole century as well.
你懂吧？
You know?
所以，我也不太清楚。
So, like, I don't know.
你……
You...
你是……
You're...
你问的问题太大了，认真聊能聊上几个月，而且聊到最后也只能算个皮毛。说到底，这只是历史规律罢了。
You've asked a big question that you could spend months talking about and still only be scratching the surface, but it's just the historical pattern.
不过话说回来，这种情况也可能改变。
Now, again, this could change.
也许这个周期会拉长，然后继续走一阵，但之后可能会崩盘。
It could be a lengthening a cycle here where, you know, maybe it continues, but then we get a crash.
我不想具体预测这些。
I'm not gonna try to get get into specifics of that.
但原因有很多，比如债务再融资、商业周期加速，而且从政治和政府角度来看，立法和监管方面有一定确定性，变化风险也较低。
But the reason why is for a lot of reasons, debt refinancing, business cycle acceleration, and then also from, you know, as far as it relates to politics and government, you have some degree of legislative and regulatory certainty and lower risk of change.
换句话说，在总统任期的头几年，政府会有自己的政治、监管和立法议程，并会去实施。
In other words, in the early years of a presidential administration, that administration will have a political, regulatory, and legislative agenda that they will implement.
而随之而来的不确定性——谁受益、谁受损，谁……
And then the uncertainty that comes from those changes, who benefits, who loses, who...
这些变化对市场到底有什么影响，可能会让市场产生一些犹豫、不确定和波动。
What what that actually changes in the markets, that can create some hesitation, some uncertainty, some volatility in the markets.
但到了总统任期的第三年，政策已经实施了两三年了。
But by the third year of the presidential term, he's had a couple years to implement those policies.
市场有机会，也有时间进行调整和消化，而且实际上，没有哪个跛脚鸭总统会说，哦，我打算彻底改变我在这个政府或者市场方面的所有做法。
The market has a chance has had a chance to adjust and digest, and there's not really, like, a major thing that a lame duck president is gonna be like, oh, I'm gonna suddenly completely change everything I'm doing about this this administration or with the markets here.
所以这里面有一些原因，就是有一些清晰度，一些确定性，一些东西已经被市场消化，市场就可以自然地运行。
So that that there's some reasons for that, that there's just some some clarity, some certainty, some things are priced in, and the markets can kind of play out.
但至于经济上是什么在驱动，你问了个大问题，我们时间不多。
But, you know, as far as, like, what drives it economically, you ask big question, we have little time.
不过，这说得通。
That makes sense, though.
说到市场厌恶不确定性，如果你把总统任期的四年都考虑进去，那是...
I mean, in terms of markets hating uncertainty, if you think of all four years of a presidential term, that makes...
第一年当然。
The first year, sure.
承诺会兑现吗？
Will promises be kept?
事情会发生变化。
Things will change.
你真不知道。
You don't know.
第二年，你差不多在为中期选举做准备。
Second year, you're kinda leading up to midterms.
可能有些政策不起作用，管他呢。
Maybe some policies aren't working, whatever.
但还有中期选举之类的事情，也许一些推进的法律或倡议要么在起作用，要么不起作用。
But there's things like midterms and and maybe other laws, you know, pushed forward initiatives are are playing out or not playing out.
但到了第三年，就差不多了。
But then in the third term, it's like, okay.
你基本就一帆风顺了。
You're kinda clear sailing.
就像，你知道这届政府是干什么的了。
It's like, you know what this administration does.
中期选举也结束了。
Midterms are done.
你还没有进入……
You're not yet in the...
你已经开始进入选举周期，但还没到白热化阶段。
You've started the election cycle, but it hasn't heated up.
你不知道那次选举和竞争到最后会怎么样。
You don't know what's gonna happen in that in that election in the fight...
第四年年底也一样。
At the end of the fourth year either.
所以你就处于这样一个阶段，你了解这届政府，你知道哪些措施对他们有效，哪些没效。
So you're kind of, you know, you have this kind of area of like, you know the administration, you know what has worked and what hasn't worked for them.
你没有处于大选前最后一年的那种动荡之中。
You're not in this volatility of the final year before the election.
因此，对于市场参与者来说，这在一定程度上是最平静的时期，让他们知道事情会如何发展。
And hence, that's kind of like the calmest time in a sense for for market participants to know how things are going to go.
所以我觉得这很有意思。
So that makes a lot, you know, I think that that's that's very interesting.
而且讽刺的是，这跟加密货币的周期也挺吻合的。
And then, I mean, ironically, it kind of that lines up with the crypto cycle as well.
然后那个……那个……
And that and that...
会发生吗？
Is it happening?
是在2027年还是2028年发生？
Is it happening in 2027 or 2028?
那是哪一年来着？
When what year is that?
哦，天哪。
Oh, man.
这下你可把我给问住了。
Now you now you put me on the spot here.
我还真没查过。
I haven't looked actually.
那是什么时候发生？
When's that happening?
那是比特币的事吗？
That happening for for Bitcoin?
我得查一下。
I had to look.
我得看看。
I gotta look at it.
我一时想不起来了。
I've drawn a blank.
我以前背得滚瓜烂熟的，但我现在喝多了。
I used to know this by heart, and I'm I'm drunk.
反正我们也不在乎。
We don't care anyway.
好吧，我出去了。
Well, I went out.
总之，在节目里，在我把它调出来之前，你能在心里猜一下下次减半是什么时候吗？
Anyway, on the show, before I pull it up, can you guess in your mind when the next halvening is?
不过，我也想说说这个。
I I I do wanna say about this too, though.
我确实觉得有必要说说减半……
I do think that it's important to say the halvening...
现在比特币减半对供应发行的改变其实很小，所以我觉得它对市场的影响会小很多。
The Bitcoin halvening now is is such a small change to supply issuance that it's, I think, now going to be a much less important impact on the markets.
但我确实认为，驱动四年周期的那些因素，除了减半之外，碰巧和它时间吻合的那些，还是会继续发挥作用。
But I do think that the things that drive the four year cycle outside of the halving, which just happens to align with that, are going to continue to play out.
那些是宏观和经济的因素……
Those are macroeconomic and economic end of...
这些因素会推动商业周期。
Factors That is gonna drive the business cycle.
会推动债务再融资。
That's gonna drive debt refinancing.
它会推动市场上的风险资产需求，还有很多其他的市场行为。
It's gonna drive risk asset appetite in the markets and a lot of other market behavior.
所以这一切还是会继续发展。
So that is still gonna play out.
你仍然会看到比特币对这些压力做出反应，但减半本身现在对供应发行的改变已经非常微小了。
You're still gonna see Bitcoin react to those pressures, but the halving itself is now such a minute change to the supply issuance.
但我不觉得它还会有那么大的影响。
But I I don't think that that's gonna be such a big, impact anymore.
如果大家想知道的话……
For the curious...
这个观点不错。
That's a good take.
如果大家想知道的话，预计会在2028年4月发生。
For the curious, it is anticipated for April 2028.
很好。
Great.
太好了。
Lovely.
太好了。
Great.
太好了。
Great.
我会展示那个。
I'll do show that.
我们会实时关注最低供应量。
We'll watch it live to the minimal amount of supply.
好的。
Okay.
约翰，我们聊聊这周还有什么让你注意的事情吧？
John, let's jump to anything else catching your eye this week, actually?
因为我想在收盘后谈谈投资组合管理，因为我们正进入一个充满希望的……
Because I I do wanna get to after hours and talk about portfolio management as we're kind of going into a hopeful...
就是，我们这些位置一直守得很好，希望这能让大家非常看涨。
Like, we've been holding these levels really well, and hopefully, that should make people very bullish.
这周在机构方面，你有看到什么动静吗？
Anything on the institutional side that you're seeing this week?
以太坊那边呢，有什么新动向吗？
Anything on the Ethereum side?
我觉得我们今早刚看到一条大新闻，本周有一位嘉宾要来上节目。
I think there's some big news that we just saw this morning with a guest that's coming this week on the show.
也许值得一提，因为要大力感谢他，他是节目的忠实粉丝，也一直对节目很慷慨，不过我把话头交给你吧。
Maybe worth mentioning because a big shout out, to him, a big fan of his and and always very generous to the show, but I'll I'll throw it over to you.
嗯，你提到的这位是我们节目的朋友，大卫·杜昂，他之前是Coinbase机构研究负责人，现在要加入Ethereum Institutional。
Well, so what you're referring to there is a friend of the show, David Duong, who was former head of institutional research at Coinbase, is now joining Ethereum Institutional.
具体什么职位我一时记不清，但他过去帮忙，这对以太坊来说是非常积极的信号。
And I don't know off the top of my head what the role is going to be, but he's moving over there to help them.
这对以太坊来说是很看涨的消息。
That's very bullish for Ethereum.
以太坊在过去一年左右的时间里一直在大力争取机构采用，他们投入了大量的资源……
And Ethereum has been campaigning very hard for institutional adoption in the past year or so, and they've devoted a lot of resource...
资源和努力都投入到了这方面。
Resources and effort towards this.
对于那些不了解的人来说，Ethereum Institutional 是一个刚成立不久的非营利组织，就在最近几个月才启动的。
For those who don't know, Ethereum Institutional is a new nonprofit that has been spun up, just in the last few months here.
大约两个月前，我们在这个频道上对他们进行了一次采访。
We did an interview with them on this channel, a couple months ago.
如果你错过了那次采访，可以去看看。
So if you missed that, go check it out.
这是目前对它们最全面、最早的采访之一。
It's one of the first and most comprehensive interviews anybody's ever done with them.
我记得我们把 Ethereum Institutional 的三位原始联合创始人请到了节目里，聊了聊这个非营利组织、他们的目标以及他们正在做的事情。
I think we had three of the original cofounders of Ethereum institutional on the program to talk to them about the the nonprofit and their goals and what they're working on there.
所以我对他们所做的一切非常看好。
So very bullish on what they've been doing.
他们取得了很多重大的胜利。
They've had a number of huge wins.
看起来以太坊一次又一次地不断取得胜利。
It seems like Ethereum just keeps coming out with wins over and over again.
而且我之前也说过，这样的胜利会多到市场都开始视而不见，宣布出来也没人在乎。
And this is something else I've said is that there are gonna be so many of these that the market is gonna start to go blind to them, and they're gonna get announced, and nobody's gonna care.
比如摩根大通今天宣布，JPM Coin将上线以太坊。
Like JPMorgan announced today that JPM coin is is coming to Ethereum.
没人在乎。
Nobody cares.
根本没注意到。
Nobody noticed.
嘉信理财向四千万人推出了加密货币交易。
Charles Schwab rolled out crypto trading to 40,000,000 people.
没人在乎。
Nobody cares.
没人注意到。
Nobody noticed.
所以，所有这些事情都在发生，市场已经麻木了，因为感觉就是，对，又一个以太坊和加密货币的重大机构胜利。
So, like, all these things are happening, and the market is going blind because it's like, yeah.
又一个以太坊和加密货币的重大机构胜利。
Another huge institutional win for Ethereum and and for crypto.
但这些事情确实重要。
But these things do matter.
它们确实开始积累起来。
They do start to add up.
随着时间推移，进入数字资产、进入以太坊和整个加密货币领域的渠道、资本、人才、资源、精力、产品和服务，都会继续加速和扩展。
And over time, the amount of access, the amount of capital, the amount of talent, resources, energy, products, services that are coming into digital assets that are coming into Ethereum and crypto overall are gonna continue to accelerate and expand.
这不仅仅是针对以太坊的。
And that's not E specific.
这是全方位的，而且加密货币市场非常看好。
It's just across the board, and crypto is very bullish.
所以我觉得这只是以太坊机构化的一个例子……
So I think that's just one example of, you know, Ethereum institutional is...
它是从以太坊基金会以及其他地方、其他资源和资金中出来的元素组建起来的。
It was spun up from elements that came out of the Ethereum foundation and other places, other resources and funding.
比特币和Sharplink也合作帮助它启动。
Bitcoin and Sharplink collaborated on on helping to stand that up as well.
他们的目标就是有效地为以太坊开展业务拓展，去接触这些机构，成为以太坊生态系统中直接面向机构的一张名片、一个面孔、一扇大门和联系点，帮助他们顺利进入加密货币领域，将以太坊作为金融基础设施加以利用，并理解以太坊作为一种资产和一种工具的价值主张，这种工具更具可扩展性、更安全、更具成本效益和效果。
And their goal is to just go out and do, you know, business development effectively for Ethereum and to go to these institutions and be a name and a face and a front door and a point of contact for the Ethereum ecosystem that relates directly to institutions and help them, get onboarded to crypto, leverage Ethereum as financial infrastructure, and to understand the value proposition of Ethereum as an asset and as a a tool for their businesses that is more scalable, more secure, and more cost efficient and effective.
所以，是的，整个加密货币领域目前有很多看涨的事情。
So, yeah, there's a lot of bullish things happening in crypto overall.
这只是其中之一……
That's one of them that...
这很有趣，因为这周我要采访David，我会问他他的新角色会是什么样的。
That's fun because I'm interviewing David this week, and I'm gonna ask him about what his what his new role is gonna be like.
所以，是的，加密货币领域正在发生很多有趣的事情。
So, yeah, it's just a lot of fun things happening in crypto.
这非常看涨。
It's all very bullish.
没人注意到。
Nobody's paying attention.
但是我注意到了，我认为这是你转向加密货币的一个大原因，并且得到更多
I am, though, and I think this is a big reason why you should pivot to crypto and and get more
注意到什么？
What's paying attention?
经典
Classic
计划。
plan.
你每天对着听你节目的人说话，兄弟。
You're talking to people that listen to you every single day, man.
你们为什么还不注意到呢？
Why why why aren't you guys paying attention?
老兄，他们听你和我说话都快一年了，真是的。
Dude, they've been listening to you and to me for like a freaking year, man.
明白吗？
Okay?
听我说，这……
Listen, this is...
他们其实在关注。
They are paying attention.
他们一直有关注，只是在等待。
They've been paying attention, but waiting.
对。
Okay.
每个人都在等待。
Everyone's been waiting.
也许其他人不是，但听这节目的人肯定不是。
Then maybe everybody else, but definitely not people listening to the show.
约翰，我想就你说的两件事谈谈我的看法。
John, I I will comment on two things that you said.
JP……
JP...
两点意见。
Two takes.
摩根大通那个代币之类的。
JP Morgan token or whatever.
我根本不在乎。
I don't I don't care.
我觉得市场不应该为此感到兴奋。
I don't think the market should be excited about that.
我不……
I don't...
说实话……
I honestly...
我对这个完全不了解。
I know nothing about it.
所以我不是在针对他们，但咱们真的不需要更多的代币或链，那些乱七八糟的。
So no no no shade to them, but we don't need more tokens or chains or any of that shit.
就买现在已有的那些就行了。
Just just buy the stuff that is there.
所以我很兴奋。
And which is why I'm excited.
谁……
Who...
谁已经把这个推广到了四千万个账户？
Who's who's rolled this out to their 40,000,000 accounts?
嘉信理财还是富达？
Schwab or Fidelity?
谁说了……
Who said...
谁在这么做？
Who's doing that?
施瓦布。
Schwab.
查尔斯·施瓦布。
Charles Schwab.
太好了。
Great.
那就更看涨了。
That's way more bullish.
因为他们会去买已经存在的东西。
Cause then they will buy the things that already exist.
他们不会去搞自己的新...
They're not making their new...
他们自己的新代币，指望别人去买的那种。
Their own new token that they want they want people to buy.
总的来说，我同意你的看法。
I I agree with your take in general.
我现在不想再多说摩根大通币的事，但是
I don't wanna say anything more about JPM coin right now, but, you know,
把他们请来上节目。
they've Get them on here.
把摩根大通币请来上节目，老兄。
Get get JPM coin on here, man.
拜托了。
Come on.
加油啊。
Come on.
来吧，摩根大通。
Come on, JPMorgan.
来展示一下你们的币吧。
Come show us your coin.
他们有数万亿美元的存款，把这些资产转移到链上，我觉得是件好事。
They have have trillions of dollars of deposits, and moving them on chain is a bullish thing, I guess.
不过他们为什么要用代币呢？
Why do they need a token though?
代币能帮他们做什么？
What's the token gonna do for that?
他们用代币到底是为了什么？
What what are they using token for?
那你就得去问他们了。
You you have to talk to them about that.
你懂吧？
You know?
提供一些收益吧。
Give some yield.
给你一些……
Give you some...
你可以拿到一些摩根大通的代币，把你的资产搬到链上去。
You get some JPM token, move move your stuff on chain.
我觉得有趣的地方在于，公共区块链基础设施确实更好，而很多机构希望他们自己的私有许可区块链基础设施能胜出。
I think that the the thing that's interesting to me about this is that public blockchain infrastructure is is better, and a lot of these institutions wants their private permission blockchain infrastructure to win.
他们对此有点抵触。
And they're sort of resistant to that.
他们在试图搞一些折中的方案，比如利用公共区块链，但还想保留一部分权力和控制。
And they're trying to, like, you know, kinda come up with some, like, halfway system where they're using the public blockchains but still retain some of their power control.
我也不确定。
And I don't know.
这得有个过程。
It's it's a process.
这是一个演变的过程。
This is an evolutionary thing.
不会是从过去一下子跳到未来，而是分阶段推进的。
It is not going to be a a simple jump from where we've been to where we're going, but we're moving in stages.
我觉得这其实就是这个发展过程的一部分，而且我认为这是看涨的，会从这里继续走下去。
And this is, I think, just part of that progression, and, you know, I think it's it's bullish, it'll keep keep going from here.
完全同意。
Absolutely.
John，我想在盘后节目中聊聊你的代币和你的投资组合情况，也看看Milk Road里还有没有其他人也在买加密货币。
John, I do wanna jump into after hours and talk about your dear tokens and where you're holding your portfolio and also look at if anybody else is buying crypto in Milk Road.
我对此表示怀疑。
I doubt it.
不过我们还是去Milk Road PRO的投资组合里看看吧。
But we'll we'll go check that out in the Milk Road PRO portfolio.
还有什么最后要说的吗？
Any last points?
这周还有其他什么事情值得大家关注的吗？
Anything anything else people should watch this week?
我知道有，有……
I know there's there's...
就是……
It's...
我们这边马上要进入股票市场的财报季了。
We're entering earning seasons on the equity side.
还有SpaceX的消息，而且我今天早上在我们的股票节目上刚刚和Ryan Zur做了一个很棒的访谈，聊了SpaceX和特斯拉可能合并的事情，如果你们想看看的话。
There's SpaceX stuff, and and I just did a great interview with Ryan Zur on on our stock show this morning to talk about SpaceX and the potential merger with Tesla and all that if you guys wanna check that out.
不过，约翰，你有什么在关注的吗？
Anything that you're watching though, John?
我一直在关注比特币。
I've just been watching Bitcoin.
我觉得现在加密货币最值得关注的就是比特币了，因为当它横盘震荡的时候，你会看到很多山寨币表现疲软，而这在我看来反而是一个机会。
I think that that is the most important thing to watch right now for crypto because while it's shopping, while it's ranging, you're going to see a lot of alts, showing some weakness, and that's gonna be presenting an opportunity in my view.
而且我觉得自从八月以来，有很多资产涨幅巨大，现在又回撤了30%、40%、50%。
And I think that there are a lot of things that have run up huge amounts, since August that have pulled back 30, 40, 50%.
但基本面价值并没有发生任何改变。
And nothing has changed about the fundamental value there.
只是大家有点紧张，开始获利了结。
It's just that people have gotten a little bit nervous and taken some chips off the table.
一些投机行为已经消退。
Some speculation has unwound.
Aerodrome和Velodrome的合并，我记得就在两天后，他们会重新推出代币，命名为Arrow。
Aerodrome is going ahead, I think, in two days with their merger of Aerodrome and Velodrome and relaunching their token as Arrow.
我觉得会有很多关于那个生态系统和那个资产的重要公告，我会密切关注的。
I think there's gonna be a lot of important announcements about changes to that ecosystem and to that asset that I'm gonna be paying close attention to.
Aerodrome今年表现非常强劲，尤其是最近几个月。
Aerodrome has been, you know, a very, very strong performer, throughout this this year, but particularly in the last few months.
我觉得这很大程度上是因为他们掌握了很多代币化股票在Base生态和Coinbase上的流动性提供，我对这些都非常看好。
And I think that a lot of that has to do with their ownership of a lot of the liquidity provision on tokenized stocks for for the base ecosystem and for Coinbase, which I'm very bullish on.
这一切都在快速成长，而且现在还处于早期阶段。
It's very much growing quickly, and it's it's still early days on all of that.
所以我是看涨的。
So I'm bullish there.
我也在关注这个。
I'm watching that.
Uniswap也是一样的。
Uniswap, same thing.
他们的交易量一直非常大。
They've been doing huge amounts of volume.
他们的代币经济模式已经调整好了。
Their tokenomics have been fixed.
回购和销毁机制非常强劲。
The the buyback and burn there is really strong.
他们在Robinhood上的代币化股票交易量很大。
They have been doing a lot of volume on tokenized stock trading on Robinhood.
最近有点降温，所以我觉得Uniswap也冷却了一些。
That's cooled a bit recently, which is why I think Uniswap is cooled as well.
但再次强调，长期来看我仍然非常看好，所以我对这个非常乐观。
But, again, the long term thesis is still very strong for me, and so I'm very bullish on that.
我们稍后也可以深入聊聊这个，具体分析一下我现在关注的其它代币。
We can talk about more of this in after hours too and, like, go into more depth on a lot of the other tokens that I'm looking at.
但我只是觉得有很多涨得很猛的品种现在在降温，而这恰好是机会。
But I just think that there's a lot of stuff that has moved very strongly that is cooling, and that's an opportunity.
我不是说它们马上就能回到历史高点，但我确实在密切关注不少资产，我觉得它们在接下来的表现会非常好。
And so, you know, I'm not saying that it's gonna revert to all time highs immediately, but there are a lot of assets that I'm watching closely that I think will do very well here.
所以我认为现在是个值得关注所有这些东西的好时机。
And so I I just think it's good time to keep your eye on all of this.
但比特币才是最重要的事情。
But Bitcoin is the most important thing.
只要比特币保持在78000美元以上，你就完全有理由去抄底，并且继续长期持有加密货币。
As long as Bitcoin stays above 78 k, I think that you have reasons to say buy the dips and and and stay stay long on crypto.
我们来深入聊聊这个话题。
We'll dive into it.
这里先给你一点预告。
Here's a little preview.
我们正在看分析师的资产组合。
We're looking at the analyst portfolios.
约翰，上周你短暂超越了梅尔文，排到了第一。
John, you were briefly in first place last week overtaking Melvin.
山寨币跌了，但对于还在场外观望的人来说，这可能是个不错的机会。
The the alts have dip, but maybe a good opportunity for those still sidelined right now.
那我们直接开始吧。
Let's jump right into it.
谢谢大家的收听。
Thank you guys for listening.
如果你想了解我们这次要做的内容，我们将会……
And if you wanna if you wanna check out this session we're gonna do, we're gonna...
我会重点看看约翰的资产组合，看看里面藏着哪些好东西，以及他看好哪些币。
I'm gonna double click on John's portfolio here and see what what kind of stuff he's hiding in there and what he's bullish on.
记得一定要看看 Milk Road PRO。
Make sure you check out Milk Road PRO.
盘后会出来的。
After hours will come out.
那是我们在每次节目结束后录制的十五分钟环节，John 会聊聊他投资组合的策略。
It's a fifteen minute session that we record at the end of our shows together where John just talks through the strategy of his portfolio.
我们现在就录这个。
We're gonna record that right now.
如果你想抢先看，Milk Road Pro 只要一块钱。
If you wanna take a sneak peek, it's just a dollar of Milk Road Pro.
不然的话，谢谢你，John。
Otherwise, thank you, John.
感谢你又带来了一期精彩的节目。
Thank you for another great show.
谢谢你，LG。
Thank you, LG.
一如既往地愉快。
Pleasure as always.
感谢收听Milk Road。
Thanks for listening to Milk Road.
如果你喜欢这期节目，记得点赞和订阅。
If you enjoyed the show, make sure you like and subscribe.
如果你苦于在市场里找不到赢家，那Milk Road PRO正是为你打造的。
And if you're struggling to find winners in the market, that's exactly what Milk Road PRO is built for.
我们的分析师提早发现了一些最大的赢家，PRO让你看到他们接下来买什么，每一笔交易，以及每个头寸背后的研究。
Our analysts have called some of the biggest winners early, and PRO lets you see what they're buying next, every trade they make, and the research behind every position.
点击下面的链接，看看Milk Road PRO。
Check out Milk Road PRO at the link below.
你在Milk Road上听到的一切仅供参考。
Everything you hear on Milk Road is for informational purposes only.
这些是我们的个人观点，不是财务建议，而且我们可能持有我们提到的某些投资。
These are our personal opinions, not financial advice, and we may own some of the investments we talk about.
一定要自己做研究，做出适合你的决定。
Always do your own research and make the decisions that are right for you.
下次见。
See you next time.
关于 Bayt 播客
Bayt 提供中文+原文双语音频和字幕，帮助你打破语言障碍，轻松听懂全球优质播客。