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但我觉得对加密货币来说，最重要的还是它的根本性普及、机构牛市，以及监管层面的突破——SEC允许这种创新豁免，这在很多方面给行业松了绑。我认为市场正在重新评估这一点。
But the thing I think it matters the most for crypto is the fundamental adoption of crypto, the institutional bull market in crypto, the the dam breaking from a regulatory perspective in crypto, the SEC allowing this innovation exemption, which is taking the handcuffs off of the industry in many ways, and I think that the market is repricing that.
大家好，最近怎么样？
What's up, everybody?
我是LG DusETH，欢迎来到Milk Road Show，这档每日加密货币节目。感觉第四季度会是我们一直期待的大日子，尽管我们每年都这么说。
It's LG DusETH here, welcome to the Milk Road Show, the daily crypto show that feels like q four is gonna be the big one we've been waiting for, even if we say that every single year.
今天是2026年10月5日。
Today is 10/05/2026.
你知道这周六是什么日子吗？
You know what this coming Saturday is?
嗯，是的，是加拿大感恩节，我们会分享最喜欢的肉汁奶酪薯条食谱，准备过冬的冰屋，同时享受一场经典的CFL比赛。
Well, yes, it's Canadian Thanksgiving where we share our favorite poutine recipes and prepare our igloos for the winter while enjoying a good old CFL game.
但这也是10/10的一周年纪念日，一个光听名字就让人难忘的日子，当时金色公牛可怕地打断了加密货币的进程。
But it's also the one year anniversary of 10/10, a day that will live in infamy on name alone when the golden bull was horrifically interrupting crypto.
那天我和John做了直播，这是我们之间众多合作的第一次。
John and I livestreamed that day, one of the first of many collaborations to come between us.
从那天起，我们每天都在运营这个频道，一直坚持着这个梦想。
And we've been running this channel every single day since then, keeping the dream alive.
今天，我们要回顾一下那件事，同时聊聊现在加密货币的情况已经完全不一样了，以及为什么你应该像约翰一样充满热情，还有为什么你在时间线上看到的那些预测，比如比特币年底前创历史新高，也许它们会成真，也许宏观环境会阻止它们实现。
Today, we're gonna circle back on that and also talk about how crypto conditions are completely different now and why you should be just as frothy as John is and why some of these projections you're seeing on the timeline of, like, Bitcoin to all time high by the end of the year, well, maybe they'll come true, or maybe the macro will prevent them from coming true.
如果你想看看约翰现在是怎么构建他的加密货币投资组合的，包括他那一堆看起来不错的山寨币，所有这些都在Milk Road PRO里。
And if you wanna see how John is building his crypto portfolio right now, including his full stable of delicious looking alts, all that is in Milk Road PRO.
我们会在节目最后额外录一段十五分钟的片段，来聊聊他的选择。
We will be recording an extra fifteen minute session at the end of this to talk about his picks as well.
这个片段叫Milk Road PRO after hours。
It's called Milk Road PRO after hours.
所以如果你是专业会员，记得留下来看。
So if you're a pro member, make sure you stick around for that.
如果你还不是专业会员，只要一美元就能通过下面的链接加入。
And if you're a wannabe pro member, it's just a dollar to join at the link below.
另外提醒一下，我们今天的播客是免费的，这要感谢我们的合作伙伴Nexo，这个数字资产平台让你可以交易、赚取和借贷，一站式搞定。
And a reminder that our podcast today is free and that it wouldn't be possible without our partners at Nexo, the digital asset platform that lets you trade, earn, and borrow all in one place.
稍后节目中会有更多关于他们的信息，请留意收听。
Keep an ear out for more information about them later in the show.
约翰，
John,.
我觉得这是我们节目有史以来最加拿大的开场了。
That's the most Canadian introduction to the show that I think we've ever had.
所以谢谢你，LG。
So thank you, LG.
哦，那挺好的。
Oh, that's good.
感觉太干净了。
It feels too clean.
那得再配上个特别糟糕的口音才行。
It would it would have to have a really bad accent on top.
你好。
Bonjour.
那本来会是……
That would have been...
或者我全程都用法式加拿大口音说话。
Or I would have a French Canadian accent the whole time.
那可真是一绝。
That'd be one for
也向你问好，我的朋友。
Bonjour to you too, my friend.
如果你想让它更加拿大，我可以全程像席琳·迪翁那样说话。
I could just talk like Celine Dion the whole time if you want to make it even more Canadian.
约翰，告诉我，我会……
John, tell me, I'll...
加密货币，今天看起来不错吧？
Cryptos, are they looking pretty good today?
这节目开头的几秒钟总是我一周中最尴尬的时刻，所以我很高兴你玩得开心，伙计。
This, the first few seconds of this show are always the most awkward part of my week, so I'm I'm glad you're having fun, buddy.
好，听我说。
Well, listen.
我觉得大家……
I think everybody...
但听我说。
But listen.
大家都很开心，兄弟。
Everybody's having fun, man.
这就像……
This is like this...
如果我们有一个恐惧与贪婪指数，但换成约翰指数，我觉得你会排得很高。
If we had a fear and greed index, but of, a John O Meter, I feel like you'd be you'd be pretty high on it.
特别是，比如，跟过去十年十月份以来的情况相比。
Especially, like, compare in the context of the past, like, years since 10/10.
就像，这……
Like, this is...
你可能会在9.8分左右，满分10分。
You'd be at a, like, a 9.8 out of 10 or something.
我觉得现在很多人并不开心。
I don't think that a lot of people are having fun right now.
实际上，我觉得很多人很害怕。
Actually, I think a lot of people are scared.
他们很恐慌。
They're panicked.
股市里的很多人都在……
A lot of people in equities markets are
因为那……
because that...
因为他们持有AI股票。
Because they have AI stocks.
他们害怕是因为他们持有股票。
They're scared because they have stocks.
而且因为收益率在上升，大家都吓坏了。
And because the yields are going up and because everybody's wetting themselves.
但在加密货币市场，我们正处于牛市。
But in the crypto markets, we are in a bull market.
所以我觉得现在时间线上只有我一个人在欢呼。
And so I feel like the only person on the timeline right now who's like, yay.
一切都进展得很顺利。
Everything is going great.
我不知道这种情况还能持续多久，因为我觉得除非霍尔木兹海峡的冲突得到解决，债券收益率开始稳定，债券市场的波动率指数——也就是衡量债券市场波动性的指标——也开始稳定下来，否则我们可能会继续看到风险资产市场的不确定性。
I don't know how much this is gonna continue because I think until we get a resolution to the conflict in the straight of four moves and bond yields start to stabilize, the move index, which is the measure of volatility in the bond market starts to stabilize, we could continue to see some uncertainty in in the risk asset markets.
我认为在美国中期选举之前，或者至少要到临近中期选举的时候，这种情况才可能有所改变。
I think that it's unlikely to see that happen prior to the US midterms or at least until we get much closer to the US midterms.
所以看起来十月份对很多市场来说可能会有一些动荡。
So it seems like October could have some turbulence for a lot of these markets.
不过，加密货币的牛市仍然在持续。
However, the bull market in crypto is still holding.
它依然很坚挺。
It's holding strong.
比特币现在，录制的时候，是八万五千。
Bitcoin right now as of time recording is at 85,000.
以太坊是两千七。
Ethereum is at 2,700.
这些都是你想看到的情况。
So these are things you wanna see.
它已经涨上来了。
It's it's gained ground.
它也守住了阵地。
It's held the ground.
而且自从八月份那次大规模空头挤压之后，我们还没有看到价格走势出现明显的反转。
And since we had that big short squeeze in August, we haven't seen a meaningful turnaround in price action.
我们确实看到了一些降温和小幅下跌，但都是非常轻微的，很小的回调。
We've seen some cool offs and some dips, but very minor ones, very small pullbacks.
而且山寨币领域在很多地方都在猛涨。
And then the altcoin space has just been ripping in a lot of different places.
所以这种加速还在继续。
And so the the acceleration is continuing.
加密货币的牛市强度还在保持。
The bull market strength is is holding in crypto.
我不知道这会不会一直持续下去，但我觉得我们得看看十月份剩下的时间表现如何。
I don't know if it goes forever, but I think we'll we'll see how we do through the rest of October here.
但你知道，我现在感觉就像派对上唯一一个玩得开心的人，我希望这种情况能继续下去。
But, you know, I I feel like the only boy at the party who's having a good time right now, and I hope it continues.
但我们只能……
But we'll we'll just...
我们看看接下来会怎么发展。
We'll see how this plays out.
为什么你是个男孩？
Why were you a boy?
为什么你不能是个男孩？
Why can't you be a boy?
我们不是男人吗？
Aren't we men?
这是不是……
Is this is this a child...
这对你来说是小孩子的游戏吗？
Is this a child's game to you?
好吧。
Alright.
听我说。
Look.
就是……
It's...
我是聚会上唯一一个玩得开心的男人。
I'm the only man at the party having a good time.
我还在Milk Road的投资组合排行榜上不断攀升，感觉特别棒，真的很有意思，而其他人都在拿着现金干着急，担心这担心那的。
I'm also climbing the leaderboards in the Milk Road portfolio rankings, which feels great, and that's that's really fun while everybody sits in cash and wrings their hands about, oh, no.
债券市场太吓人了。
The bond market's scary.
我基本上全仓加密货币，每周都在赚钱。
I'm, like, fully deployed in crypto and just making bank every week.
所以现在进展非常顺利。
So this is this is going great.
没错。
That's right.
如果你想看看那些人是怎么通过削减仓位来调整布局的，可以去Milk Road PRO上看看，同时John也在继续上升，从最后一名升到了第二名。
If you wanna see how those guys are positioning by trimming their positions, you can go check that out on Milk Road PRO as well as John continues his ascent from last now to second.
这就像我一直在Instagram上看到的那个视频，Max Verstappen和100个卡丁车手比赛。
This is like this is like when that video I keep seeing of Max Verstappen racing a 100 go kart drivers on Instagram.
我老看到这个视频，他从最后一名起步，然后他就……
I keep seeing this where he starts last and then he he just...
整件事的关键就在于他怎么冲到第一名。
It's the whole thing is just how he's gonna go to first.
我觉得你现在的情况就跟这差不多。
And I feel like that's what's happening with your portfolio right now.
约翰，我有一个问题想先问你，在进入那些看多理由之前，你总是很擅长帮我们梳理这些。
One, John, one question I have for you, John, before we get into a lot of the great reasons to be bullish, which you're always great at at highlighting for us.
我最近看到……
I've been seeing from...
我可不敢把他们叫作分析师。
I wouldn't call them analysts.
说真的，这段时间我一直只关注技术面分析的人，大概有两三个星期了。
Like, just TA people for a while now, like, couple weeks.
遇到这种极端暴涨的情况，出现这样的反应是很自然的。
And this is a natural reaction when have such an extreme pump.
我老是看到有人喊话，说比特币要回调到七万七千美元。
I keep seeing these calls of, well, there's gonna be a pullback to 77 k for Bitcoin.
就像，这其实挺正常的……
Like, it's a nor...
而且这也不是什么坏事。
And not even, it's a bad thing.
这不过是突破后的正常回踩。
Like, that's just a normal retest of this breakout.
这是很常见的情况。
It's a normal thing that just happens.
然后一个一个的，我看到那些在过去几周里预测回调的人，现在开始说，嘿。
And one by one, I'm seeing those people who had called for that at some point in the last couple weeks be like, hey.
你知道吗？
You know what?
我其实觉得那不会发生了。
I actually don't think that's gonna happen.
为什么？
Why is that?
是不是……
Is it...
还是说……
Or is...
是不是市场就是强得多？
Are are things just way stronger?
比如说，是不是……
Like, is...
比特币、以太坊这些，是不是比最乐观的人预期的还要强得多？
Are Bitcoin Ethereum and everything just holding way stronger than even even the biggest...
连最看多的人都没料到？
Even bull's thought at this point?
因为买的人比卖的人多。
It's because there's more buyers than sellers.
我……
I...
所以我觉得我之前也是这么想的。
So I think that I was in that camp too.
当初我们经历那次大规模的空头挤压时，市场涨得太快太猛，我当时以为会发生回调，我也跟我们的社区说了，我们可能会看到某种回调。
When we initially had this huge short squeeze, we got so overbought so quickly that I thought what was gonna happen, I told our community this too, that we would see some kind of a pullback.
我原本预期至少会跌到74000，但每次回调都没能跌破75000，然后价格反而跳得更高了。
I was expecting to get to at least 74 k, but we couldn't break 75 k on any of those pullbacks, and then we we gapped up even higher.
所以我现在还是这么说，你知道，除非出现一次有意义的回调，比如跌破75050美元，否则，根据过去几个月的价格走势来看，空头根本没有显示出任何力量，也没有意愿把价格压下去。
And so I'm still saying that, you know, until until we get, like, a meaningful pullback, like, below $75.05, I would say, based on, like, the the recent price action over the last few months, the bears have shown no strength, no no will to to push the price back down.
多头完全掌控局面。
The bulls are in control.
而且我觉得你说得对。
And I think you're right.
我确实认为这……
I I do think it is...
多头对市场的掌控力，比很多人预期的要强得多。
The bulls are much more so in control than I think a lot of people expected.
而且我觉得我们已经经历了很多年那种反复震荡的行情，总是想着，你知道的，前进三步退两步，前进三步退一步，或者类似的情况，当我们……
And I think that we've had many years of choppy price action and kind of expecting, you know, three steps forward, two steps back, three steps forward, one step back, some version of that when we...
每当价格往好的方向走的时候。
Whenever the price does move in a positive direction.
我们还没看到这种情况，而且我也不知道以后会不会看到。
We haven't seen that, and I I don't know if we will.
这并不是说我们就会一直涨下去，这次反弹会一直持续，但市场的强势确实让人很受鼓舞。
It's not to say that we're just gonna go up forever and this lockout rally is going to continue, but the strength has been really encouraging.
多头在这里基本上就是完全掌控了市场。
The bulls have just been kind of, like, just, you know, completely in control of the markets here.
我不知道什么时候会出现回调或者回落，也不知道会是什么样子，或者能走多远，但我确实觉得我们在图表上已经涨了这么高，有足够的空间向各个方向波动，然后才会打破我们建立的新市场结构。
I I don't know when we will see some kind of a dip or pullback or what it'll look like or how far we'll go, but I I do think that we have gotten so far up on the charts here that we have room to wiggle in a lot of directions before anything breaks the new market structure that we have established.
这就是为什么周线和月线的收盘价如此重要，因为它彻底改变了我们所处的市场结构，让我们坚定地脱离了之前持续了几个月的熊市趋势，进入了一个新的牛市趋势。
That's why it was so important to get these, like, weekly and monthly candle closes is that it radically changes the market structure that we're in and establishes us firmly out of the prior bear trend that we've been in for several months and in a new bull trend.
所以，建立这个新趋势的价格历史还处于早期阶段，但只要我们继续沿着这个方向走，我认为强势会持续下去，而且这里的倾向必须是向上的。
And so it's still early days in establishing the price history of that new trend, but as long as we continue in this direction, I think the the strength continues and the the bias has to be to the upside here.
比如，丹·塔皮耶罗今天早上发推说，比特币到10万看起来就像从这儿打一杆进洞那么简单。
Like, Dan Tapiero tweeted this morning that a 100 k for Bitcoin looks like a chip shot from here.
就像……
It's like...
虽然不是最容易的，你知道，轻轻一推就能进洞的那种，但也不再是远距离投掷了。
It's not the easiest, like, know, tap in a putt, but it's also not a long a long throw anymore.
所以……
So...
所以这里就是积累了很多看涨的势头。
So it's just a lot of a lot of bullish momentum has happened here.
可以说我们已经回归均值，重新进入了牛市。
We've reverted to the mean, so to speak, gotten back into the bull market here.
我觉得你会继续看到很多亮眼的表现。
And I think that you're just gonna continue to see a lot of performance.
这也不仅仅是情绪、逼空，还有那种恐惧和贪婪之类的因素在推动。
This is also not just driven by sentiment in short squeeze and, like, you know, fear and greed or whatever.
这背后有很多非常强劲的基本面因素在推动采用，加上大量看涨的监管信号，促使市场上迅速推出各种新产品，几乎每周都有全新的数字资产产品上市。
This is driven by a lot of very strong fundamental drivers of adoption, a lot of very bullish regulatory signals that are leading to a ton of very bullish product launches, new new kinds of digital asset products coming to market rapidly almost every week.
就像我之前在上周播客里说的，我们很快就会看到这些新公告接连发布，而且速度会非常快，数量也会非常多，每一个都相当利好。
Like I said, I think on the last week's podcast, we're just gonna start seeing these new announcements, and they're gonna come so fast, and there'll be so many of them that are so bullish.
由于释放出来的利好实在太多，市场可能都会看不过来。
The market's gonna kinda go blind to it just because of how much is being unlocked here.
数字资产行业终于彻底摆脱了束缚，迎来了大幅松绑。
The handcuffs are really finally coming off of the digital asset industry in a big way.
所以这波牛市才刚刚起步。
So this bull run is just getting started.
这将会是我们见过的最强劲、规模最大的牛市，无论是在任何资产类别中，还是在数字资产和加密货币领域都是如此。
It's going to be one of the biggest and strongest bull markets we've seen in any asset class ever, but certainly in digital assets and crypto.
这个行业十年来我们一直期待的那个愿景，现在终于开始真正落地，并且第一次真正进入市场……
And the promise that we have been moving towards for a decade in this industry is starting to actually materialize and and really come to market in the first time...
而且是实实在在的方式。
For the first time in real ways.
所以我就……
So I'm just...
我对此非常看好，市场正在对此做出反应，而且我预计这一趋势会持续下去。
I'm extremely bullish here that the market is responding to that, and I expect that that trend to continue.
我想稍微停一下，提醒大家，加密货币牛市又回来了。
Just wanna pause for a quick second to remind you all that the crypto bull market is back.
我一直在把资金投入到那些我认为在这轮牛市中会表现非常好的币种上。
I have been deploying capital into all coins that I think are gonna do very well, this bull market.
其中一些从我买入到现在已经涨了两倍多了。
Some of them are already up over two x from where I entered.
所以，如果你想看看我的投资组合、我的观察列表，并且能在Discord上随时问我问题，现在就加入Milk Road PRO吧。
So if you wanna see what's in my portfolio, what's on my watch list, and have access to me in Discord to ask questions twenty four hours a day, Join Milk Road PRO now.
链接在描述里。
The link is in the description.
只要一美元。
It's just a dollar.
到时候见。
I'll see you there.
约翰，在我们讨论更现实、更贴近实际的事情之前……
John, before we talk about things that are more realistic and more like act...
那些我知道你更看重的，咱们就说是更现实的东西吧。
The things that I know you tie more, let's call it realism too.
我想先继续聊聊我那个关于CT零售的吐槽，然后问问你关于我们这一年来一直在看到的这件事。
I'm just gonna stay on my my my CT retail riff for a second here and ask you about this thing that we've been seeing for a year.
好吗？
Okay?
如果大家不知道这是什么，这是4chan上多年前的一个帖子。
If people don't know what this is, this is a post from 4chan that was from years ago.
我不……
I don't...
从2023年12月12日开始的。
From, from 12/12/2023.
有个人之前画过一张图，说从历史低点到历史高点，2015到2017年是一千零六十四天，然后从高点到低点是三百六十四天，接着在下一个市场周期里又重复了这个模式，低点到高点又是一千零六十四天，高点到低点是三百六十四天。
And it was somebody who had mapped out saying that, all time lows to all time highs 2015 to 2017 was a thousand sixty four days, then the high to the low was $3.64, and then it was a repeated pattern in the next market where it was lows to highs, another one thousand sixty four days, highs to lows, three hundred and sixty four days.
然后他们还有...
And they had...
一年前有人提起这个，说10月6号会是历史高点。
And somebody brought this up a year ago saying that October 6 would be the all time high.
然后在10月6号之前，大家就开始传这个说法，结果后来真的应验了。
And people were starting circulating this before October 6, and then it turned out to be true.
所以这个历史高点正好是...
So that this all time high was exactly...
上一次的历史高点，正好是在前一个历史高点之后的一千零六十四天，或者是在前一个...
The last all time high was exactly one thousand sixty four days after the previous or after the after the previous all time...
或者说是在那个周期的低点之后。
Or after the low of that cycle.
最近几天，包括我朋友Arsenic上周也提到，如果继续按这个模式走，那个低点应该就是今天。
And what people have pointed out in the last couple days, including my friend Arsenic here last week, is that that low would be today if you kept following this pattern where the low...
从周期高点到低点……
From the cycle high to the site...
接下来的低点，也就是熊市低点，按照364天的规律，应该就是今天。
The following low, the bear market low, would be today for the 364.
事情真的有这么简单吗？
Can it possibly be this simple?
而且，如果今天真的到了周期低点的话，意味着所有东西都要跌大概50%。
And also, going to those cycle lows today would mean, like, a 50% drop across everything.
所以，
So,
不，事情没那么简单。
no, it is not this simple.
得了吧。
Come on.
很抱歉告诉你，你不能就这样……
I'm I'm sorry to tell you you can't just...
你知道，这……
You know, it's...
占星术对市场价格走势并不起作用。
Astrology doesn't doesn't work for for market price action.
所以……
So...
你看。
Look.
好的。
Okay.
我们稍微来梳理一下。
Let's let's, like, kinda unpack this a little bit.
我觉得今年市场还在给我们提供关于当前周期的更多信息，还是说我们正在开启一个新的周期？
I think that we are still getting more information from the market this year about the cycle that we're currently in, or are we starting a new one?
而且我认为，除非我们获得更多、比如好几个月的价格数据，否则这一点不会变得清晰……
And I don't think that's going to become clear until we get much more, like, many months more price of...
需要更多的价格走势和交易历史，我们才能更全面地判断，现在是周期中的回调，还是周期结束、新周期开始？
Worth of price action and just trading history behind us so that we can get a more complete picture of are we in a mid cycle correction, or are we at the end of a cycle and starting a new cycle?
我觉得仍然有很强的理由支持周期延长的论点，这个论点我在整个牛市期间一直在考虑，大概从2023年、2024年开始吧。
I think there's a strong argument to be made still that the lengthening cycle thesis that I've been kind of, like, entertaining for the entire bull run since, you know, I think 2023, 2024.
这个论点很有说服力，可能现在还在发挥作用。
There's a strong thesis that that could still be playing out here.
你知道吗？
You know?
比如在2021年、2022年的牛市中，有一个高点在……
And, like, in the twenty twenty one, twenty twenty two bull run, there was a a peak in...
我现在记不清具体月份了，但有一个高点在64000美元，然后出现了一个大约55%的回调，持续了几个月，之后又创出新高，达到69000美元。
I can't remember the the exact month right now, but there was a peak at 64 k and then a mini month pullback that was about 55%, and then we went back to a new high at 69.
现在从链上等多个指标来看，牛市的高点是在64000美元。
Now by many metrics on chain and others, the the high of the the bull market was at 64 k.
在69000美元这个价位，很多链上活跃度的其他指标并没有创出新高，那个价位是2021年11月周期的最终顶部，但价格确实创出了新高。
We didn't get to a new high in a lot of other metrics of on chain activity at the 69 k number, which was the ultimate top for the cycle in November, but we did get a new high on price.
我觉得我们现在可能也在经历类似的情况，就是先到了12万6，然后出现了这个周期中段的调整、回落，或者你想怎么叫都行，比特币大概回撤了55%。
I think that we could be seeing something similar playing out here where we got to a 126 k, and then we had this mid cycle interruption correction, slowdown, whatever you wanna call it, of, like, this 555055% pullback on Bitcoin.
现在呢，我们可能正在走向第二个高点，也就是新的历史最高点，而且可能会看到这轮牛市真正的顶峰。
And now we could be rising to a second peak, a new all time high, and actually seeing the the real peak of this this bull market.
所以，你知道，ISM数据……
So the, you know, the ISM printing...
这个数据一直在扩张。
Print keeps expanding.
现在还在55以上。
It's still over 55.
这种情况已经持续了七八个月了。
It's been that way for seven or eight months now.
而且我觉得我们……
And I think that we're...
我们落后于全球流动性已经很久了。
We've been lagging global liquidity for a long time.
比特币开始赶上这个趋势了。
Bitcoin is beginning to catch up to that.
如果这种情况持续下去，可能会把我们推得更高。
If that continues, that could pull us up much higher too.
这……
It's...
你知道，现在宏观方面有很多东西比那些大家都在大喊大叫、指指点点的东西，比如债券市场收益率，要乐观得多。
You know, there's a lot of things you can point to right now in macro that are much more bullish than just some of these, like, big things that everyone's, like, screaming about and pointing at, like, bond market yields.
所以，是的，就是……
So, yeah, just just...
驱动市场周期的因素有很多，并不是像我们生活在模拟世界里，或者某个时间旅行者回到过去在Reddit上发帖预测未来那么简单。
There's a lot that goes into what drives market cycles, and it's not as simple as, like, a simulation that we're living in or some time traveler going back on Reddit and posting about the future.
就像，那不是这里正在发生的事情。
Like, that's not what's happening here.
有很多因素构成了推动经济、风险资产以及像数字资产类别和比特币这样的资产的宏观趋势。
There are a lot of things that make up the the the macro trends that drive the economy and risk assets and assets like the digital asset class and Bitcoin.
而那些因素……
And those things...
所有这些因素汇聚在一起，才产生了你在图表上看到的结果和价格走势。
The confluence of all of them is what produces the outcomes that you see on the chart and the price action that you see.
我觉得我们还需要……
I think that we are going to take...
还需要好几个月，我们才能有把握地说，2025年10月5日……
Need several more months before we can confidently say that October 5...
或者更准确地说，10月6日，确实是周期的顶峰，还是只是周期中的一次回调？
Or October 6 rather of 2025 actually was the peak of a cycle, or was it just a mid cycle correction?
我知道，都过去这么久了，还在纠结这个问题，听起来有点奇怪，但你知道，我们应该……
Like, I know it sounds like way, way after the fact to still be, like, question marks about this, but, you know, we we should have...
如果那……
If that...
如果他说的那些都成立的话，那么今天或明天就应该是这轮熊市的低点，而比特币现在在85000美元交易。
If everything he was saying in there held true, then today or tomorrow should be the low of this bear market, and Bitcoin is trading at 85,000.
如果我们到年底的时候，价格超过10万或者接近10万，这完全有可能，就像我说的，这...
If we get towards the end of the year and we're, like, over a 100 k or around a 100 k, which we very well could be at this point, like I said, it's...
这并不夸张。
That's not a a big stretch.
我觉得这会让很多人重新思考，我说完这个就不说了。
I think that it forces a lot of people to reevaluate things, and I'll shut up after this.
但还有一件事我想说，就是10月6日那个12万6的高点，或者说那次暴跌，对吧，10月10日那次。
But one more thing I do wanna say is that the October 6 high of a 126 k or or that that crash, right, on October 10.
那个...
That...
在2025年，从那个高点到底部，用月份来衡量是件挺有意思的事，因为我们大概在7月底左右到了这个低点...
In 2025, that marking the top from there to the bottom is an interesting thing to measure in terms of months because we got this low around, like, end of July...
或者6月底、7月初，但那其实是对第一次下探到6万的那根长下影线的重新测试。
Or end of June, beginning of July, but that was really a retest of the first, like, wick down that we did to 60 k.
现在我们确实创了新低，但你看看，也就是5万8对6万的区别。
Now we did technically make a new low, but you're, like, looking at, like, 58 k versus 60 k.
对我来说，这其实是对已经形成的低点的再次测试，你也可以这么看图表。
To me, it's a retest of a low that was already established, or you could read the chart that way.
而且那是一个非常短的熊市，从十月到二月。
And that's a very short bear market of October to February.
所以这更说明它是一个中期调整，而不是那种持续一整年的长期熊市。
So that would be a point to say it's more of a mid cycle correction than a prolonged, you know, year long bear market.
这些细节说起来就没完没了，聊起来也挺有意思的。
This is all in the weeds, and we can get lost talking about this for forever, which is fun.
但归根结底，你只需要知道这不是模拟。
But ultimately, all you need to know is that it's not a simulation.
这不像Reddit上那些帖子说的那么简单，给你一个天数，你设个日历提醒就完事了。
It's not as simple as to Reddit posts, you know, with a number of days and, like, you can just set your calendar to it and forget about it.
实际情况要复杂得多。
There's a lot more going on.
随着这个资产类别逐渐成熟，这些宏观因素变得越来越重要，周期也会随之变化。
As this asset class has matured, these macro things start to matter more, and these cycles are gonna change.
周期还是会有的，但会发生变化。
There'll still be cycles, but they're gonna change.
它们不再按固定的天数走了，所有这些东西都会变。
They're not gonna go by a a set number of days anymore, and all that's gonna vary.
随着我们获得更多的价格走势信息，我们会了解更多，对投资的市场以及驱动因素有更好的理解。
And as we get more price action, we're gonna learn more about that and have a better understanding of the the markets that we're investing in and what drives them.
这就是为什么我说投资教育很重要，而不仅仅是投资资产。
And that's why I say it's important to invest in your education, not just in assets.
什么……
What...
我是说，你提到了很多宏观因素。
I mean, you mentioned a lot of stuff that kind of factor in the macro there.
为什么……
Why...
我们在节目里已经聊过很多了，但为什么在当前这种典型股票……
And then we've talked about this so much on the show, but, like, why in this current condition where typical equities...
比如很多股票市场虽然没有被压垮，但可以说是停滞不前，放缓了很多。
Like a lot of the the equity market is getting not crushed, but is at a standstill, let's say, slowing down a lot.
这是个非常基础的问题。
That's a super basic question.
为什么加密货币表现这么好？
Why is crypto performing so well?
比如，什么……
Like, what what...
除了这种周期性之外。
Outside of this cyclicality.
而且你甚至说，这其实不是我们通常看到的那种周期。
And even you're saying that's not really the cycle like that way that we see.
不是那种四年周期的东西。
It's not this four year cycle thing.
实际上，这更像是一种不同的前景，我们可能还在重新测试周期低点的过程中。
It's actually a bit of a different different, prospect of kind of retesting a cycle low that we're still in.
但在当前这种环境下，你知道的，所有……
But why with these current conditions where, you know, all all...
几乎所有资产都在承压，为什么加密货币表现却这么好？
Pretty much all of their assets are really suffering, why is crypto doing well?
我在弗吉尼亚大学读经济学的时候，每次回答经济或市场活动的问题，我们都必须加上一个前提：假设其他条件不变。
So I studied economics at the University of Virginia, and something that we would always have to do when we were writing answers questions of economics or market activity is we'd have to include the phrase, means all else being equal.
也就是说，当你观察某个市场或经济环境，改变其中一个变量，想弄明白为什么其他东西变或不变时，这就好比在……
So what that means is that if you're looking at a market environment or an economic environment and you change something and you wanna understand why something else does or does not change, it's just like in a...
做科学课或者化学实验的时候，你会有自变量和因变量。
An experiment you're doing in science class or in chemistry, you have an independent variable and a dependent variable.
所以它只有在……
So it only works...
只有保持其他所有变量不变的情况下，实验才有效。
The experiment only works if you're holding all the other variables constant.
如果你同时改变六十个因素，那……
So if you're varying 60 things at once, then you...
那就不算是在做真正的实验了。
You're not really doing a proper experiment.
所以你得说，其他条件不变，我把其他所有变量都控制住。
So you have to say, all else being equal, so I hold everything else constant.
我觉得大家都忽略了一点，就是现在其他条件根本就不是不变的。
And that's what I think everybody is missing from this equation is that everything else is not equal.
其他条件不变这个假设根本不成立。
Ceterus paribus does not apply.
现在有六千万个变量同时在变。
There are 60,000,000 things varying all at once.
我们经历了有史以来最大的能源冲击。
There's the largest energy shock we've ever seen.
但我觉得对加密货币来说，最重要的是它的根本性普及，机构在加密货币市场的牛市，监管方面加密货币的闸门被打开，美国证券交易委员会允许这种创新豁免，这在很多方面给这个行业松了绑。
But the thing I think it matters the most for crypto is the fundamental adoption of crypto, the institutional bull market in crypto, the the dam breaking from a regulatory perspective in crypto, the SEC allowing this innovation exemption, which is taking the handcuffs off of the industry in many ways.
而且我认为市场正在重新定价，再加上过去六到九个月，加密货币一直是风险资产里超卖最严重的资产或资产类别。
And I think that the market is repricing that combined with the fact that for six to nine months or so, crypto has been the most oversold asset or asset class in in the risk asset space.
所以这只是回归均值而已。
And so it's just reverting to the mean.
大家别忘了，八万五只是比比特币的年平均价格高一点点。
Like, people forget that 85 k is just a tiny bit over the the yearly average price of Bitcoin.
所以比特币并没有出现什么特别大的涨幅，或者说过度高估的情况。
And so it's not like Bitcoin has gone to some, like, huge outperformance, like, you know, overvaluation.
它只是赶上了过去一年的平均价格水平。
It's just sort of caught up to average for the last year of of price history.
如果你再看更早的图表，它……
And if you look at the chart even further back, it...
在过去一年半到两年的时间里，这其实是一个相当……
It's it's like for the last year and a half, two years, this is a pretty, like...
比特币现在处于一个平均水平的位置。
Bitcoin's in an average place right now.
所以这就是我看待这件事的方式。
So that's the way I view this.
我觉得这里面的事情比表面看起来要复杂得多。
I think that there's a lot more going on than meets the eye.
我觉得债券市场抛售，与其说是……
I think that the bond market selling off is not so much a...
一部分原因是人们觉得政府可能还不起债了。
It's it's partly people saying that they don't believe that the government is gonna be able to pay their debts.
但主要还是大家觉得，我现在宁愿把资金放到别的地方去。
It's mostly just people saying, I would rather have my capital in other places right now.
他们把钱投到债券里，同时也在为那些超大规模企业提供债务融资，这些企业为了搞AI和AI资本开支借了那么多钱。
They're deploying into bonds and and supplying debt for the hyperscalers that are borrowing so much to build AI and do AI CapEx.
他们在买风险资产。
They're buying risk assets.
他们在买标普500。
They're they're buying the S and P 500.
他们在买……
They're buying...
嗯，不是标普500，但他们买的是那几只表现特别好、引领标普500的股票。
Well, not the S and 500, but they're buying the the the few stocks that are performing really well and leading the S and P 500.
而且他们现在也开始投资加密货币了，因为所有这些基本面因素和数字资产类别的承诺开始兑现，人们都在布局以抓住这个机会。
And they're they're taking positions in crypto now too because all these fundamentals and the the promise of the digital asset class is starting to materialize, and people are positioning to take advantage of that.
所以这背后涉及的因素远不止简单地问一句“为什么会这样？”
So there's just a lot more that goes into it than just saying, like, why is this happening?
对，事情就是这样发生的。
Well, this is happening.
背后有很多因素在起作用，我觉得这其实就是市场在告诉你，在获得更多确定性和一些宏观逆风消散之前，这些资产的合理估值应该是多少。
There's there's a lot more at play, and I think this is just like, you know, what the market is telling you, the proper valuations of these things are right now until we get some more certainty and a few of these macro headwinds clear up.
然后我认为股市和AI领域的牛市会继续，并创出新高。
And then I think that the bull market in in equities and in in the AI space just will continue and go to new highs.
我觉得这真的是一个很好的看待方式。
I mean, I think that that's a really good way to look at it.
我觉得对很多人来说，你是在简化它，但也不是完全简化，因为我觉得很多人总是会把它们对立起来。
I think I think for a lot of people, you're kind of simplifying it, but also not simplifying it where I think a lot of people are always just gonna pit them against each other.
虽然就像你说的，这其实并不是在遵循什么科学实验。
Even though it's like like you're saying, it's like it's not really following this scientific experiment.
而且，说句公道话，你和这个领域里其他几位的声音，你们整个夏天都在说，如果你是搞AI的，就转向加密货币，可能也是因为这些现在正在被证明是正确的因素，就像……
And, you know, to your credit and and and a few other voices in the space, you know, you guys spent all summer saying if you're an AI pivot to crypto, and probably for a lot of these same factors that are now proving true as well is that it's just like...
也许事情就这么简单，听我说。
And and maybe it is as simple as like, listen.
有些东西会被过度抛售。
Some things get oversold.
有些东西会被过度追捧。
Some things get overbought.
就这么回事。
Kind of it.
你明白吗？
You know?
就是说，这没必要搞得更复杂，不是因为有些东西不好，有些东西好。
Like, that that doesn't have to be more complicated than that is that it's not because some things are bad and some things are good.
其实就是市场对某些东西特别兴奋，对另一些东西就没那么兴奋。
It's that just market gets really excited about some things and and and gets way less excited about other things.
如果你能学会跟着这个节奏走，如果你是个波段交易者，而不是真的相信那些东西，那也是一种投资和交易的方式。
And if you can kinda learn to follow that, if you are that kind of swing trader rather than actually believing some of the stuff, you know, that that's another way to invest and to trade as well.
就是找那些基本面好的东西，在大家都讨厌、没人关心的时候买进。
It's just just look for stuff that has good fundamentals and buy it when everybody hates it and nobody cares.
然后会有大的投降式抛售。
And there's major capitulations.
我想回到你说的那个投资黄金法则，就是永远在恐慌时买入。
And I'll go back to your your kind of golden rule of investing of just like always buy that fear.
就是那些总是下跌的日子。
Just always those red days.
不管价格是多少。
Doesn't matter the price.
就在那些疯狂下跌的日子里买入……
Just buy those insane red deer...
红色下跌的日子。
Red days.
在个位数的时候买入恐惧和贪婪。
Buy the fear and greed in the single digits.
长期来看，你知道，用这个公式你肯定会做得很好。
And long term, you know, you'll definitely do well with that formula.
约翰，我想问你，在节目的这个阶段，我们可以更具体一点，比如加密货币世界最近有哪些发展让你特别兴奋？你知道，现在有很多事情在发生，我想你称之为加密货币会议世界，Token 2049 就在这周。
John, I wanna ask you, we can get a little bit more specific at this point in the show about, like, what latest developments in the crypto world are getting you really excited amongst, you know, there's a lot happening right now in the, I guess you call it a crypto conference world token 2,049 is this week.
上周，Robinhood 也举办了自己的小型峰会，这对某些资产类别来说令人兴奋，对其他资产类别，或者说对某些特定资产来说，就没那么令人兴奋了。
Last week, Robinhood had their own little summit as well, which was exciting for some asset classes and less exciting for others and and for other specific assets, let's call it.
还有杠杆ETF，我之前都不知道。
And there's also levered levered ETFs, I didn't even know about.
所以我想从那里开始，如果你能告诉我一些关于……
So I'd love to kick off with that if you could tell me a little about...
更多关于他们如何让机构参与一些福利的信息。
A little bit more about how they're gonna let institutions play some perks.
好的。
Okay.
那么有……
So there are...
我就直接说了。
I'm just gonna go in on this.
有很多事情，
So there are a lot of things that
我今天。
I today.
深呼吸一下。
Take a deep breath.
这就对了。
There you go.
替我深呼吸一下。
For taking a deep breath for me.
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没问题。
Sure thing with it.
那么……
So...
好的。
Okay.
今天早上有一些公告，我觉得值得关注。
So as of this morning, there have been a few announcements that I think are worthy of note.
就像我说的，最大的消息就是那个创新豁免，然后大家纷纷推出新产品和服务来回应。
Like I said, the biggest one is the kind of coming out with this innovation exemption and people responding by launching a bunch of new products and services.
那这是什么意思呢？
So what do I mean by that?
SEC 发布的创新豁免，基本上就是说，嘿。
The innovation exemption that the SEC came out with was basically saying, hey.
在五年的时间窗口内，你可以在美国把股票代币化。
For a five year window, you're allowed to tokenize stocks in The United States.
他们加了很多限制条件，比如每个交易所只能有75只股票。
They gave a lot of stipulations, like only 75 stocks per exchange.
比如，嗯……
Like, there...
这方面的规则其实挺多的。
There's a lot of, like, rules around this.
但基本上，他们设立了一个安全港，一个豁免监管的窗口期，让大家可以开始推出代币化股票产品。
But, basically, they have created a safe harbor, a a a window for exemption from regulation for people to start launching tokenized stock products.
上周五，我和AGM的Antonio Martinez——他是Base的增长负责人——以及Bitwise的Matt Hogan做了一次访谈，聊了聊他们如何利用Coinbase提供的这些代币化资产来构建新产品，叫做ATP，也就是自动化代币投资组合。
Last week on Friday, I did an interview with AGM, Antonio Martinez, who is the head of growth at Base, and Matt Hogan of Bitwise to talk about how they're using these tokenized that Coinbase has offered to build new kinds of products called ATPs, automated token portfolios.
我们详细聊了很多关于……
So we go into a lot of detail about the...
他们在做什么，这个是怎么实现的，以及为什么这很重要。
What they're doing, how this has been enabled, and why that matters.
但今天早上，OKX和纽约证券交易所也宣布合作，共同推进一个代币化项目。
But then this morning, there was an announcement from OKX and the New York Stock Exchange who have partnered on on a tokenization project as well.
他们打算推出代币化股票，我记得是在62年或64年，大概那个时间，在X层上，也就是OKX的以太坊二层网络。
They're gonna be launching, I think it's '62 or '64, something like that, tokenized stocks on X layer, which is OKX's Ethereum layer too.
顺便提一下以太坊，因为所有东西都会在以太坊上代币化，所以一切都会代币化，不过这是题外话。
Shout out to Ethereum because everything is gonna be tokenized since it's all gonna be on Ethereum, but that's a sidebar.
但这是另一件事……
But that's another thing that's...
今天早上宣布的，就是纽约证券交易所首次开始上链并实现自身代币化。
That was announced this morning, which is the New York Stock Exchange beginning to move on chain and tokenizing itself for the first time.
所以这将会发生。
And and so that's gonna be happening.
SEC批准的另外一件事是，长期以来，他们一直限制ETF产品允许使用的杠杆比例。
The other thing the SEC approved was for a long time, they've been limiting the amount of leverage that you're allowed to get on an ETF project.
所以……
So that...
这个申请已经提交了很多次，但一直被拒绝。
That's been something that has been applied for many, many times, but constantly been rejected.
我觉得今天早上，SEC第一次宣布批准了……
I think this morning for the first time, the SEC has announced an approval for the...
他们的首批三倍杠杆比特币和以太坊ETF，这引入了更多的杠杆。
Their first three x levered Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, which introduces more leverage.
就像你说的，永续合约开始变得更受欢迎，被更多人接受。
And just like you said, perpetuals are starting to become more welcome and adopted.
Robinhood也发布了一些公告，说他们正在扩大平台上的相关服务。
Robinhood made some announcements about how they're expanding that offering on their platform.
这应该也会进入美国，因为CFTC已经公开表示，他们想把Hyperliquid、Lighter这类永续合约产品引入美国。
That's coming, I think, to The US as well because the CFTC has publicly said that they wanna work to bring things like hyper liquid lighter and other perps products into The United States.
所以这一切都非常利好。
So all of this is very bullish.
这一切都是……
All of this is...
你现在看到的是监管环境正在转变，为数字资产领域带来的创新产品和技术腾出空间，这些开始首次进入美国。
What you're seeing is the regulatory landscape shifting and making room for the innovations of of products and and technologies that the digital asset space makes possible starting to come into The United States for the first time.
所以所有这些事情从根本上来说都是利好的，而且它们……
So all of these things are very fundamentally bullish, and they...
而且这些消息大多都是今天早上才出来的。
Like, this all just hit this morning mostly.
比如……
Like, the...
这些关于杠杆ETF以及纽交所和OKX在XLAIR上合作的公告。
These announcements about the leveraged ETFs and the the New York Stock Exchange OKX partnership on on XLAIR.
所以，是的，这类事情正在大量发生，而且还会继续加速。
So, yeah, there's just a lot of this that's happening, and it's gonna keep accelerating.
而这一切最终意味着什么，这也是为什么它很重要，就是让更多的市场参与者，带着更多的资金，说实话还有更多的杠杆，能够接触到数字资产产品以及运行在数字资产层和区块链生态系统上的产品。
And what it what it ultimately amounts to, and this is why it matters, is that it's more access to more market participants with more capital and, honestly, more leverage around digital asset products and products that run on digital asset layers and blockchain ecosystem.
所以，是的，这一切都非常利好，而且还会继续下去。
So, yeah, it's all just very bullish, and it's it's gonna continue.
而且我只是……
And I'm just...
我真的很兴奋，因为我做多做得特别狠，LG，而且目前效果还不错。
I'm really excited about it because I'm I'm long as hell, LG, and it's it's working out pretty good.
这不就是让更多人赌博吗？
Isn't this just more gambling for people?
你知道，你可以用“赌博”这个词。
You know, you could use the word gambling.
你也可以用“投机”。
You could use speculation.
你也可以说是提供更多机会。你
You could say access You
你，你不做杠杆交易。
don't you don't leverage trade.
远离赌博式的交易。
Stay away from gambling trade.
你，你就是不做这个。
You you do not do it.
那为什么SEC让很多其他人和机构这么做，会让你这么兴奋呢？
So why why would it make you excited that the SEC is letting a lot of other people and institutions do it?
我觉得这倒不是因为我……
I think it's it's less that I'm...
我是说，你看。
I mean, look.
我认为你可以负责任地使用杠杆。
I I think that you can use leverage in a responsible way.
但大多数人不会。
Most people don't.
这就是为什么我觉得理解这一点很重要。
And this is why I think it's important to understand about this.
比如，很多这类产品，这些金融衍生品，它们最初是为了帮助人们管理风险、降低风险，而不是承担更多风险。
Like, a lot of these products, these financial derivatives, they came about as a way for people to manage risk and to mitigate risk, not to take on a lot more of it.
所以，如果你是一个德州的石油生产商，做生意时账面上不得不持有大量石油，你就需要某种金融衍生品来对冲那个资产的价格波动。
So, like, if you're a oil producer in Texas and you happen to have to hold a huge amount of oil on your balance sheet, like, while you're doing business, you need some sort of financial derivative to sort of hedge out the price volatility of that asset.
所以如果你因为生意需要持有大量石油，你就得……
So if you're, like, holding a huge amount of it for business, you have to...
你需要一个……
You you want a...
一个期权或者做空石油价格的合约，这样你就能对冲掉价格波动，让你的运营更稳定，正常开展业务，减少和规避持有资产带来的很多风险……
An option or a short contract on oil's price so that you can balance out that volatility, and this helps you get stability in your operations and conduct your business and minimize and mitigate a lot of risks from holding an asset...
持有这么多波动性大的资产。
So much of an asset that's volatile.
但是，如果你只是因为当天看到一条推文就想用100倍杠杆做多石油，那这个产品的用法就完全不一样了，金融行为也完全不同。
However, if you just wanna go a 100 x long in the price of oil because of a tweet that came out that day, that's a much different use case for the product, and it is a much different kind of financial behavior.
那不就是赌博嘛。
That's gambling, though.
对，没错。
Exactly.
那就是赌博。
That's the gambling
就是赌博。
thing.
我觉得金融衍生品在金融领域非常重要，只要用得恰当。但它就像一把电锯。
I think that financial derivatives in finance are very important if used properly, but it's just like a chainsaw.
如果你是伐木工，用它来干活，那……
If if you're a lumberjack and you use that, you...
那就是在高效地使用它。
You're using that in a productive way.
但如果你把电锯给一个婴儿，你知道网上有个梗，就是把AK47给猴子，那太危险了。
If you give a chainsaw to a baby, you know, there's that meme online of them giving an a k 47 to a monkey, that's dangerous.
我劝大家别这么做，不是因为我觉得大家不够负责任，不能自己做决定，而是因为使用一个强大的工具，或者误用一个强大的金融工具和金融产品，风险非常大。
And I I caution people against that, not because I think that people aren't responsible enough to make their own decisions, but because there is a huge risk of using a powerful tool or misusing a powerful financial tool and financial product.
而且我觉得，大多数人其实并不需要这些东西。
And I think that people, for the most part, don't need these things.
比如说，你不需要那么高的杠杆。
Like, you don't need a huge amount of leverage.
你不需要用你的资金去冒那么大的风险。
You don't need to take that much risk with your capital.
你只需要放长线、有耐心，这就是我提倡的做法。
You can just take a long view and be patient, and that's kind of what I advocate for.
但不管人们是否使用杠杆，重要的是要注意到采用率、获取渠道、新产品、新服务，以及资产类别基础价值的提升。
But regardless though of whether or people are using the leverage, the thing that's important to note is the adoption, the access, the new products, the new services, and the the fundamental value of the asset classes increasing.
不管他们是否使用杠杆ETF。
Whether or they're using the leveraged ETFs or not.
就像是有更多的资金、更多的获取渠道，这对整个行业来说都是非常看涨的。
It's just like there's there's more capital, more access, and that's all very bullish for the whole whole whole industry.
你知道，加密货币的一个奇怪之处在于，你待得越久，你最终拥有的账户似乎就越多。
You know, one of the weird things about crypto is that the longer you're in it, the more accounts you seem to end up with.
你在一个地方买入，在另一个地方交易，在别的地方赚取收益。
You buy in one place, trade somewhere else, earn yield somewhere else.
如果你真的需要资金，你最终不得不卖掉一些你可能本来想保留的东西。
And if you actually need capital, you end up having to sell something that you probably wanted to keep.
这就是为什么我们Milk Road和Nexo合作。
That's why we at Milk Road are partnering with Nexo.
他们把所有东西都放在一个账户里。
These guys keep the whole thing under one account.
你可以买卖加密货币，对已有的资产赚取利息，甚至可以用你的资金抵押借款，而不必卖掉它。
You can buy, trade crypto, earn interest on what you already hold, and even borrow against your capital without having to sell it.
所有都在一个地方，一个账户，全在Nexo上。
All in one spot, all in one account, all on Nexo.
所以如果你需要流动性，但不想放弃你的仓位，或者你已经持有加密货币，想让它发挥更多作用，我觉得Nexo值得你花时间看看。
So if you need liquidity but you don't wanna give up your position or you're already holding crypto and you wanna be able to do more with it, I think Nexo is worth your time.
我们很喜欢和他们合作。
We love working with them.
我想你也会喜欢的。
I think you will too.
告诉他们，是Milk Road推荐你来的。
Tell them Milk Road sent you.
杠杆交易会不会压低加密货币的价格？
Does leverage trading suppress price in crypto?
因为我经常看到一件事，对吧，当我们遇到这种大幅波动的时候，就会有人说，哦，这些空头都被清算了。
Because one thing that I see often, right, when we do have these mass moves either direction is, oh, all these shorts were liquidated.
这些多头都被清算了。
All these longs were liquidated.
甚至上周有人在推特上分享分析，说，哦，我们现在所处的这个区域里的所有空头，现在都没了。
And even people sharing analysis on Twitter last week be like, oh, all the shorts in this region that we're in now, they're all gone now.
所以价格可能会起飞，因为他们不再试图压制它了。
So merger could take off because they're not trying to suppress it.
那么，这是不是……杠杆是怎么……
So is it a a, how do how do how do leverage...
杠杆和永续合约，它们是如何影响价格走势的？
How does leverage and perps, how do they factor into price action?
还有，它是不是有时会被用来操纵市场，误导市场，让人以为，哦，有这么多空头。
And b, is it used to manipulate the market at times to misdirect the market into thinking, oh, there's so many shorts.
别做多。
Don't go long.
你懂我的意思吗？
You know what I mean?
就是，现在别买。
Like, don't buy now.
是不是……
Is that...
你怎么看这个？
How do you view that?
首先，我想说一件我之前忘了说的事，就是Uniswap也在推动很多链上……
So first, I wanna say something I forgot to say, which is that Uniswap is also enabling a lot of the chain...
在X Layer上交易这些代币化产品。
Trading for these tokenized products on X Layer.
所以没人有足够的Uniswap。
So nobody has enough Uniswap.
这算什么Uniswap广告啊，兄弟？
What is some kind of Uniswap plug, man?
他们又不是赞助商。
They're not a sponsor.
确实是广告，他们不是赞助商，但应该是。
It sure is a plug, and they're not a sponsor, but they should be.
Uniswap，你赶紧过来吧。
Get your ass over here, Uniswap.
海登，别这样，兄弟。
Hayden, come on, man.
约翰想跟你聊聊。
John wants to talk to you.
想聊v4的hooks。
Wants about v four hooks.
大家都想知道那玩意儿。
Everybody wants to know about that shit.
我也是。
Me too.
我的私信是开放的。
My DMs are open.
好的。
Okay.
那么……
So...
回答你的问题，我觉得它们不是用来操纵市场的。
To answer your question, I I don't think that they're used to manipulate the markets.
我觉得有些人可能过于关注这一点了。
I think that some people look at that maybe more than they should.
我认为在牛市期间，杠杆帮了你很多，因为人们会加杠杆。
I think that leverage helps you a lot in a bullish period because people get levered up.
他们……
They...
它会让牛市行情走得比正常情况更快更远，然后你可能会看到，比如，过度的杠杆...
It makes the bull run go further faster than it should, and you can get, like, extended pry...
价格被高估。
An overvaluation of price.
但同时，你知道，当人们被强制平仓，出现连环爆仓的时候，也会带来很多阻力和挑战，这真的会让市场迅速反转。
But it also, you know, can also present a lot of headwinds and challenges when people get liquidated and you get cascading liquidations, and that can really reverse the markets quickly.
所以这没有绝对的好或坏。
So it's not good or bad.
在牛市里它对你有利。
It helps you in a bull market.
在熊市里它对你有害，而且无论哪个方向，杠杆过高都很危险，因为市场总有办法让每个人都感受到最大的痛苦。
It hurts you in a bear market, and it's it's just dangerous to get too much leverage in either direction because the market has a way of making everybody feel the max amount of pain.
而且...
And...
所以我也说不准。
So I don't know.
我不太确定……
I don't...
你可以说这是操纵。
You could say it's manipulation.
说到底，这都是市场行为，兄弟。
It's all just it's all just markets, man.
我不觉得说它是操纵工具是公平的，但它确实是个强大的工具，而且可能会被滥用。
I I don't I don't think that it's fair to say that it's like a a tool of manipulation, but it is a powerful tool, and it can be misused.
所以这就是为什么我觉得人们在决定是否要使用这些产品时，应该非常谨慎。
And so that's why I think people should use a lot of caution when they're evaluating whether or they wanna use those products.
好的。
Okay.
好的。
Okay.
所以，不要对我说的内容过度解读。
So not not too much not too much to read into kind of what I'm saying.
看情况吧。
Depends.
约翰不想谈那些阴暗的部分。
John doesn't wanna talk about the dark parts.
约翰不想谈那些秘密。
John doesn't wanna talk about all the secrets.
约翰就是那种，听着。
John is just like, listen.
就听着。
Just listen.
现在有新的演讲了。
There's x talks now.
兴奋起来吧。
Get excited.
我觉得现在要关注的是像我们上周讨论的Q和T这类东西，比如我们看到的根本性采用，还有纽约证券交易所把资产代币化这些事。
I think that the thing to focus on right now is stuff like, like Q and T that we talked about last week, like the fundamental adoption that we're seeing and, like, the New York Stock Exchange tokenizing things.
这才是真正值得关注的地方。
This is the thing to pay attention to.
而且我觉得现在没必要在小市值币种上搞太投机。
And I don't I don't think you need to get super speculative in small caps right now.
我觉得现在也没必要用高杠杆去冒险。
I don't think you need to get super, like, degen with leverage right now.
我觉得现在最重要的事情，也是我在自己的投资组合里努力做的，也是我想对Milk Road的观众和社区传达的，就是现在先布局好，然后耐心等待。
I think the important thing to do right now and what I'm trying to model in my portfolio and what I'm trying to preach to the audience that we have and our community at Milk Road is just, like, get positioned right now and be patient.
因为不管我们现在是处于现有牛市的新一波上涨，还是新一轮牛市的开始，或者新一轮牛市的第一波，不管哪种情况，最容易摘的果子就是先布局一些主流币和表现很好的中市值币种，比如Uniswap，或者Aerodrome，他们马上要宣布整合Aerodrome和Velodrome的大消息，而且他们还有很多动作。这样的项目其实特别多。
Because if we are going into a new bullish leg of, you know, an existing bull market or starting the next leg of a new bull market or the first leg of a new bull market, either way, the the lowest hanging fruit here is to just get positioned in some of the majors in crypto and the mid caps that are that are performing really well, like a Uniswap, for example, or, you know, Aerodrome is gonna have a big announcement of, you know, integrating Aerodrome and Velodrome, and they're they're doing a whole bunch of There's there's tons of these projects, though.
比如，就是……
Like, it's...
要是把所有项目都聊一遍，一个小时都不够。
It filled the whole hour if we were gonna talk about all of them.
但他们确实在做很了不起的事情。
But they're they're building really great things.
它们正在获得基础性的采用。
They're getting fundamental adoption.
市场还没有完全意识到他们正在构建的东西有多强大，以及他们的资产有多值钱。
The market hasn't caught up yet to how powerful what they're building is and how valuable their their assets are.
所以我觉得现在就是布局并耐心等待的时候，让这一切自然发展。
So I think this is the time to just be positioned and be patient and let all of this play out.
因为随着监管机构给出明确指引，这些新产品和服务进入市场，这会带来一个推动力……
Because as the regulators give clarity, as these new products and services come to market, that has a fork...
这个推动力会迫使其他市场参与者不得不做出反应、竞争并推出新产品，这对所有市场用户来说只会越来越好，对整个资产类别来说也会越来越看涨。
Forcing function that makes other market participants have to react and compete and launch new products, and it just gets better and better for all users in the market, and it gets more and more bullish for the asset class overall.
所以我觉得现在就是耐心观望的好时机。
So I think it's just a great time to be patient and watch.
但我……
But I'm...
我之所以这么看好，是因为比特币正处于牛市之中。
The reason I'm so long on this is that Bitcoin is in a bull market.
现在正开启新一轮牛市，我并不太在意刚开始时会有一些波动和震荡。
It is starting a new bull market, and I don't really care so much that we have some some wiggles and turbulence in getting started here.
我更愿意做的就是保持仓位，耐心等待。
I would rather just be positioned and be patient.
而且，你知道，如果我最终不得不承受15%、20%甚至25%的回调，我真的不会眨一下眼。
And, you know, if I end up having to stomach a a 15, a 20, a 25% drop here, I really am not gonna blink one way or the other.
我会继续加仓，等待行情发展，因为基本面在增强，牛市势头也在增强，真的没有必要因为中期选举还有一个月就过度担忧，觉得这里有些不确定性。
I'm just gonna keep adding to the position and waiting for it to play out because the fundamentals are getting stronger, the bull run is getting stronger, and there's there's no reason to really, like, get too tied up about, oh, midterms are a month away, so we're having some uncertainty here.
把眼光放长远一点，保持耐心，你就会……
Take a longer view and just be patient, and you'll...
你在市场上的表现会比试图过度交易、自作聪明要好得多。
You're gonna do much better in the market than trying to, you know, overtrade your book and outsmart yourself here.
约翰，如果从这里跌15%，时间线就乱套了。
John, if there was a 15% drop from here, the timeline would be in shambles.
但你还会买。
But you'd a buyer.
但你会是买家。
But you'd be a buyer.
你觉得会
You think it'd
没事吗？
be alright?
当然。
Absolutely.
我觉得那不算太糟。
I don't think that'd be that bad.
而且，说实话，这也不是太意外。
And, look, it honestly wouldn't be that unexpected.
比如，从现在到年底的某个时候，我真的不认为我们能连续六个月一路直上，没有回调。
Like, at some point between now and the end of the year, I just really don't see it being realistic that we just go straight up with no breaks for six months solid.
你明白吗？
You know?
就是说，总得有个什么，比如，好吧。
Like, there's gotta be some kind of like, alright.
我们总得在某个地方喘口气。
We're gonna take a breather here somewhere.
我不知道什么时候会来。
I don't know when it's gonna come.
我……
I...
我一直在等它来。
I've been expecting it to come.
但它一直没来。
It hasn't come.
也许它不会来了。
Maybe it won't come.
但如果它不来，我已经准备好了。
But if it doesn't, my bags are packed.
如果它来了，我就……
If it does, I'll
不过，你觉得什么样的才算喘口气呢？
But what do you consider a breather, though?
因为我觉得，就像我二十分钟前问的那个问题一样……
Because I would say, like, even back to my question that I asked, like, twenty minutes ago...
不。
No.
但我是认真的。
But I mean that.
我是认真的。
I mean it.
我的意思是，现在这个时间点，很多人以为会是那个喘息的机会，就是那种小幅回调，比如跌到77左右，或者说跌个15%，或者百分之十左右吧。
That it's like this time now is what a lot of people thought would be the breather as in a, you know, a little pullback to, like, 77 or whatever, like, 15% or or ten ten ish percent, let's say.
但那并没有发生，因为你说的是，买的人比卖的人多。
But that hasn't transpired because you're saying it's like, there's more buyers than sellers.
这里有很多强势的表现。
Like, there's a lot of strength here.
有……
There's...
之前超卖了，现在正在被买回来。
It was oversold, and now it's it's being bought back up.
所以平均……
So ave...
即使有一点小回调，这些回调也会被全面买走。
Even any little dips, those those dips just get scooped up across the board.
所以这是不是……
So is this something...
我想问的是，是不是……
I guess what I'm asking though is that, like, is is...
你能把这看作当前的喘息吗？
Could you consider this the current breather?
我现在说的是按周来看的。
And I'm talking like on a week to week basis right now.
所以我们说的不是长期的事情。
So this isn't this isn't the long term thing we're talking about.
约翰的布局是几个月、甚至几年的。
John's positioning for months and months, years.
所以这是个很具体的问题，但你能说这就是喘息期吗？就是横盘整理、守在这里，因为自然方向是向上的。
So this is a very granular question, but could you say that this has been the breather just going sideways and holding here is the breather because the natural direction is up?
从八月开始就是这样了。
That's what's been happening since August.
一直在发生的是，我们在一个窄幅区间里小幅震荡，有点横盘，波动率被压缩，然后我们就会向上爆发。
What keeps happening is we we chop a little bit in a tight range and kinda go sideways, and the volatility compresses, and then we explode higher.
牛市就是这样。
That's what happens in bull markets.
从八月开始就是这样了。
That's what's been happening since August.
所以这很有可能发生。
And so it's it's a very strong possibility.
这种情况会继续发生。
That's what continues to happen.
我看到很多人在推特上发帖说同样的话，比如，嘿。
I've seen a lot of people posted on Twitter saying the exact same thing of like, hey.
在我们第一次上涨之前，市场波动很低，然后我们大幅上涨，接着又重复了同样的过程。
Before we had this first move up, we had this low volatility, and then we explode higher, then we did the same thing again.
虽然不是严格的阶梯式上涨，但有点像那样。
And it's not quite stair steps, but it's it's a little bit like that.
而接下来可能正是这样。
And that could be exactly what happens.
我们只是让市场稍微平静一下。
We just kind of, like, have some some calmness in the market.
你看。
Look.
过去几周，以太坊一直在2700、2600、2700左右徘徊，比特币则在83000、85000、86000之间波动。
For the last couple of weeks, Ethereum has been around 2,700, 2,600, 2,700, and Bitcoin has been, like, between 83, 85, 86.
它一度涨到87000，但一直在这个窄幅区间内，我们现在正好处于区间的中间位置。
It got up to 87, but it's it's staying in this tight range, and we're right in the middle of the range right now.
所以接下来可能就是这样。
So that could be what plays out here.
我们就在这个窄幅区间里震荡，然后向上突破一步，市场可能永远不会给你一个好的入场点。
We just kind of chop in this tight range and then take the next step up, and the market may never really give you a good entry on these things.
而且我觉得山寨币也不会再给你好的入场机会了。
And I don't think you're going to get good entries on altcoins again.
就算比特币回落到8万甚至7万，山寨币市场也不会出现大幅崩盘，因为现在市场上出现了太多新的ETF产品。
Like, even if Bitcoin does go back to 80 k to 70 k, right, like, you're still not gonna get huge collapses in the altcoin market because so many new kinds of ETF products have come to market.
很多人已经理解了这些资产的投资逻辑，很多人都在布局长期视角。
So many people have, like, understood what the thesis is on these things, and so many people are positioning for a longer term view.
而且，经过这六到九个月的深度熊市恐惧，那些投机者已经被洗出加密货币和数字资产市场了。
And we've already had the the tourists shaken out of crypto and digital assets with the the six to nine months of, like, deep bearish fear that we've had.
所以剩下的只有我和那些打不死的小强，还有那些对这个东西深信不疑的狂热信徒，他们相信这些资产和这个资产类别。
So the only people who are left are me and the cockroaches and, like, full fanatic zealots who believe in this stuff and believe in these assets and this asset class.
所以我觉得你会看到卖压枯竭，然后你会看到非常艰难的……
So I think you're gonna see a starvation of selling, and you're gonna see, like, a really hard...
这就是他们所说的“锁仓反弹”，对吧，我们一直处于这种状态，就是……
This is what they call a lockout rally, right, which is what we've been in, where it just...
它会小幅震荡，但从不真正给你回调的机会，你永远得不到一个干净、清晰、好的入场点，然后它就一路往上走。
It chops a little bit, but it never really gives an actual dip, and you never really get a clean, clear, good entry on anything, and it just keeps climbing higher.
然后所有币都在暴涨，到处都是100%的涨幅。
And just all coins keep popping off, like, know, 100100% candles all over the place.
所以这真是个美好的时光，兄弟。
So it's a it's a really nice time, man.
我在这个派对上可是个开心的人。
I'm I'm a happy man at the party.
怎么样？
How about that?
这样行吗，LG？
Does that work, LG?
其他人都很沮丧。
And everybody else is sad.
不。
No.
那确实挺难过的。
And that's sad.
如果你现在跟我一起做加密货币交易，你做得相当不错。
If you're in if you're in the crypto trade with me right now, you're doing pretty well.
你知道吗？
You know?
但其他人都很害怕。
But everybody else is scared.
你看。
Look.
你知道，大家还在说另一件事，就是美股AI交易里标普500可能会回调10%，这可能会给加密货币和比特币带来一些下跌。
You know, the other thing that people are saying is that we could see a 10% pullback in the S and P 500 in the equity space in the AI trade, and that could bring some kind of a dip to to crypto and Bitcoin.
但到现在还没发生，所以也许不会发生。
But it hasn't yet, so maybe it won't.
好的，约翰。
Okay, John.
我，我，我……
I I I...
我下一个问题是关于你的持仓和投资组合，还有……
My next question for you is about your positions and your portfolio and...
因为你甚至加仓加得更多了。
Because you even added a lot even more.
你上周用工资和剩余现金，现在把0%现金全部部署了。
You used your payday last week and your remaining cash to fully deploy your 0% cash now.
约翰已经为此做好了充分准备，但我想问你这件事，我们稍后会转到Milk Road PRO盘后时段来聊这个。
John is fully positioned for this, but I wanna ask you about that, and we're gonna jump to to Milk Road PRO after hours to do that.
如果你们想看看，就点下面的链接。
So if you guys wanna check that out, just click the link below.
花一美元就能看。
It's a dollar to to to to watch it.
这是我们每期节目结束时做的一个十五分钟的小环节，我们会打开约翰的投资组合，一起看看里面的持仓，聊一聊。
It's a little fifteen minute session we do at the end of our episodes together, where we pull up John's portfolio and actually look through the positions and talk through them.
我还想聊聊你的一些持仓，可能有些人会说这些已经降温了，但我觉得它们降温是因为不再直线飙升了。
And I also wanna talk to about some of your positions that, I guess, some people would say have cooled, but rather I I would say they've cooled because they've stopped going straight up.
所以到底怎么回事，约翰？
So what the hell, John?
我们来聊聊其中几个。
So we're gonna talk about a few of those.
它们涨了500%。
They're up 500%.
为什么就停在那儿了？
Why would they stop there?
这太不公平了。
It's unfair.
你懂吧？
You know?
不过我们会在盘后看看那些持仓。
But we'll we'll take a look at those in after hours.
所以如果你们想加入我们的话。
So if you guys join us for that.
不然的话，我们周一还会回来继续聊。
Otherwise, we'll be right right back here on Monday for more.
约翰每天都在这里，和很多很棒的嘉宾一起聊更多加密货币的话题。
John and and John's here every day to talk more crypto with some fantastic guests.
谢谢你，LG。
Thanks, LG.
感谢收听Milk Road。
Thanks for listening to Milk Road.
如果你喜欢这个节目，记得点赞和订阅。
If you enjoyed the show, make sure you like and subscribe.
如果你在市场上找不到赢家，那正是Milk Road PRO的用武之地。
And if you're struggling to find winners in the market, that's exactly what Milk Road PRO is built for.
我们的分析师很早就发现了一些最大的赢家，PRO让你看到他们接下来买什么，每一笔交易，以及每个仓位背后的研究。
Our analysts have called some of the biggest winners early, and PRO lets you see what they're buying next, every trade they make, and the research behind every position.
点击下面的链接，看看Milk Road PRO吧。
Check out Milk Road PRO at the link below.
你在Milk Road上听到的所有内容仅供参考。
Everything you hear on Milk Road is for informational purposes only.
这些都是我们的个人观点，不是财务建议，我们可能持有我们讨论的一些投资。
These are our personal opinions, not financial advice, and we may own some of the investments we talk about.
一定要自己做研究，做出适合自己的决定。
Always do your own research and make the decisions that are right for you.
下次见。
See you next time.
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