Bitwise：代币化可能是十年来最大的加密货币交易

我们正看到一波资本海啸涌入链上，以稳定币、代币化股票和其他资产的形式，这将……

We have a tsunami of capital coming onchain in the form of stablecoins, tokenized stocks, and other assets, and that's going to

比特币正在努力守住78000美元这个关口。

Bitcoin is fighting to hold on to the $78,000 level.

Robinhood上的迷因币交易区简直疯了，而在这一切之中，藏着金融的未来。

The meme coin trenches on Robinhood are going wild, and somewhere in all of this is the future of finance.

大家好，欢迎收听Milk Road Crypto播客，这个播客知道有些数字资产是世代级的投资机会，有些则是智商测试，还有些两者兼而有之。

Hello, and welcome to Milk Road Crypto, the podcast that knows that some digital assets are a generational investment opportunity, and some are an IQ test, and some are somehow both at the same time.

我是主持人John Gillen。

I'm your host, John Gillen.

今天是9月9日星期三，今天我们请到了Bitwise的两位嘉宾，Bitwise研究主管Ryan Rasmussen，他再次来到节目，是我们的老朋友，也是大家的最爱。

Today is Wednesday, September 9, and today we are joined by two guests from Bitwise, Ryan Rasmussen, head of research at Bitwise, back on the show again, an old friend and fan favorite.

和他一起首次亮相的是Bitwise研究分析师Ish Asad，有趣的是，这是真的，他真的是在Matt Hogan举办的一场比赛中赢下了这份工作。

And joining him for the first time is Ish Asad, research analyst at Bitwise who and fun fact, this is true.

他真的是在Matt Hogan举办的一场比赛中赢下了这份工作。

He literally won his job in a contest that Matt Hogan ran.

我会让他给我们讲讲这件事，因为我真的很想多听听。

I'm gonna get to him to tell us all about that because I'm really curious to hear more.

所以他肯定有什么独门秘籍要跟我们分享。

So he's gotta have some kind of alpha to share with us.

如果你们觉得不错，记得点赞和订阅。

If that sounds good with you, make sure you all like and subscribe.

把这期节目分享给会喜欢的朋友吧。

Share this episode with somebody who's gonna enjoy it.

提醒一下，我们今天的播客是免费的，这要感谢我们优秀的赞助商saber.money，一个专为亚洲打造的稳定币支付平台。

And as a reminder, our podcast today is free and that would not be possible without our wonderful sponsors at saber.money, the stablecoin payments platform built for Asia.

所以请留意节目后面关于他们的更多信息。

So keep an ear out for more information on them later in the episode.

但现在，欢迎回到Milk Road节目，也欢迎Ish第一次来。

But for now, welcome back to the Milk Road show, and welcome for the first time, Ish.

Ryan，两位，今天怎么样？

Ryan, gentlemen, how are you today?

很高兴来到这里。

Great to be here.

谢谢邀请我们。

Thanks for having us.

嗯，我很期待开始聊。

Well, I'm excited to get into it.

最近加密货币圈发生了很多事情。

There's a lot going on in crypto these days.

Ryan，首先欢迎回来，但你先别动，我想向观众介绍一下Ish。

Ryan, first, welcome back, but just sit still for a second because I wanna introduce the audience to Ish.

Ish，我想从这个故事开始讲起。

Ish, I wanna start with this story.

你进Bitwise工作并不是通过正常的面试流程。

There you didn't get your job at Bitwise through a normal interview process.

当时Matt Hogan在办一个比赛。

Matt Hogan was running a contest.

你赢了那个比赛。

You won the contest.

那是个什么样的比赛？

What was the contest?

你是怎么赢的？

How did you win?

给我讲讲这个。

Tell me about this.

发生了什么？

What happened?

对。

Yeah.

那真是太棒了。

It was pretty awesome.

那是我申请的第一份工作，更别提是在推特或X上找到的了。

First job that I've ever applied to, let alone got on Twitter or X.

我当时就是，你知道的，看着时间，想更深入地进入这个行业，偶然看到了Matt在X上发布的第一个Bitwise Research招聘竞赛帖子。

I was just you know, look at the time, looking to go deeper into the industry, stumbled across the first Bitwise research hiring contest post by Matt on X.

就是谁能做出最好的比特币财务报告，谁就能得到这份工作。

It was whoever can make the best Bitcoin treasury presentation wins the job.

我完全不知道竞争对手会是什么样的人。

I had no idea who the competitors would be like.

而且我看到这个帖子的时候，比赛已经开始了大约五到七天。

I also saw it about five to seven days into the competition window.

所以我只剩下三天时间了。

So I had three days left.

但这种情况就是，我觉得如果你告诉自己你会赢，那么你的行为就会像一个会赢的人，然后你就真的赢了。

But it's one of those scenarios where I feel like you just if you tell yourself you're gonna win it, then you behave like someone who is gonna win it, and then you win it.

所以我全力以赴，熬了几个通宵，拼尽全力。

So I went all in, had a couple late nights, and I gave it my all.

结果真的成功了。

And it worked out.

看来他们挺喜欢的。

I guess they liked it.

现在他们可甩不掉你了。

Now they're stuck with you.

干得好，兄弟。

Good job, man.

那真是太棒了。

That's that's great.

根据我的了解，你之前是在Hedgeye的数字资产部门工作。

So you my research says you came over from Hedgeye's digital assets desk.

所以你在加密货币领域已经很久了，而且你参与撰写了很多研究报告，比如Bitwise发布的Chainlink那篇，写得非常好，还有一些季度更新。

So you've been in crypto for a long time, and you've been cowriting a lot of the the research reports, the Chainlink piece, which Bitwise put out, which was fantastic, as well as some of the the quarterly updates.

你在Bitwise有没有专门负责的市场领域？

Do you have a specific assigned segment of the market that you cover for Bitwise?

你是不是那种全能型的选手？

Are you kind of like a all purpose utility player?

跟我们说说你在加密货币领域主要关注什么。

Like, tell us about what you focus on in crypto.

对。

Yeah.

在Bitwise的研究团队里，我基本上是个全能型研究员。

On the research team at Bitwise, for the most part, a general all purpose research player here.

但如果要选一个自己专注的领域和兴趣点，那肯定是代币化。

But if I had to choose a self assigned area of focus and interest, it's definitely tokenization.

从我五六年前开始接触加密货币起，我就一直专注于这个领域。

That's the area that I've been focused on ever since I started in crypto five, six years ago.

所以代币化，就是深入研究它的机制和具体操作细节。

So tokenization, getting into the mechanics, the weeds of how it's being done.

好。

Good.

好吧，代币化方面没什么新动静，所以今天肯定没什么好聊的了。

Well, there's nothing going on with tokenization, so I'm sure we'll have nothing to talk about today.

对。

Yeah.

Ryan Rasmussen，很高兴认识你，Ryan。我想问问你关于Matt的一些评论，并且想听听你对最近市场这种剧烈波动的看法。

Ryan Rasmussen, it's nice to meet you, Ryan, I wanna ask you about some comments I saw from Matt and get an update from you on just, like, the whiplash that we've seen in the markets here.

Matt说在2026年第二季度，他看到了八年来加密货币领域最悲观的情绪。

Matt said that in q two of twenty twenty six, he saw the worst sentiment I've seen in eight years in crypto.

当时比特币低于6万美元。

Bitcoin was below 60 k at the time.

现在我们在8万美元附近。

Now we're in the neighborhood of 80 k.

市场对此反应如何？

How how is the market reacting to this?

情绪转变是怎样的？你的客户怎么样，或者你对加密货币市场的这种剧烈波动有什么看法？

What's the sentiment shift been like, and just how are are your clients or what conversations are you having about this whiplash we've seen in the crypto markets?

对。

Yeah.

这个问题问得真好，因为这么短的时间里发生了太多事情，而且加密货币领域里有很多这种近因偏差。

It's a it's a, it's a really great question because so much has happened in such a short period of time, and there's so much, like, bias recency in crypto.

我觉得重要的是，哪怕只是退后几个月来看，想想我们当时在哪里，以及现在变化有多大。

I think it's important to to zoom out even a few months and think about where we were and and how it's changed.

所以如果你回想第二季度和夏天，确实有几个因素在驱动投资者的注意力和情绪，无论是针对加密货币还是市场的其他领域。

So if you think about q two and the summer, there was really a a few things that were driving investor attention, and investor sentiment both towards crypto and towards other areas of the market.

当时有SpaceX的IPO，这是历史上最大的一次IPO。

And the we had the SpaceX IPO, which was the largest IPO in history.

在那段时间，我们在Bitwise跟财务顾问和其他传统投资者交流时，他们的体验是，他们满脑子想的、花时间看的全都是SpaceX的IPO或者跟AI相关的股票。

And around that time, the experience we had at Bitwise speaking with financial advisers and other traditional investors was that all they were thinking about and all they were spending their time looking at was SpaceX IPO or equities related to the AI sector.

这意味着，对于很多这类投资者群体来说，资金和注意力基本上完全从加密货币转移出去了，这也是为什么对加密货币的情绪不好，或者干脆就是完全中性。

And what that meant was that capital and focus had rotated completely out of crypto for the most part, for many of these these cohorts of investors, and that was one element of why sentiment was bad towards crypto or completely, just just neutral towards crypto.

对吧？

Right?

并不是说很多投资者认为加密货币会归零，认为比特币没用，会归零。

It wasn't that a lot of these investors thought crypto was going to zero, thought Bitcoin was useless, was going to zero.

只是他们看到市场上其他领域，客户一直在问这些方向，所以他们把精力和注意力都放在那里，觉得那边机会更多。

It was just that they saw other areas of the market that they were being asked about by clients, that they were focusing on, and that they were, paying more attention to and saw more opportunity.

关键是当时我们反复听到的问题并不是说加密货币会不会归零。

The thing is at that time is that the question we continually got was not is crypto going to zero.

而是问：到底是不是已经见底了？

It says, has it bottomed out?

对吧？

Right?

比特币价格在那之后几个月一直维持在六万美元左右波动。

And we continue to trade around 60 k for several months.

在那个阶段，市场上也出现了一些交易策略。

In that period, you also had strategies.

你知道的，先是比特币现货ETF获批，然后我们在推特上收到大量客户咨询，都在问某个策略会不会崩盘。

You know, first Bitcoin sales, you had a bunch of of our clients and and all over Twitter asking about a strategy gonna blow up.

这对比特币意味着什么呢？

What does that mean for Bitcoin?

这在整个加密货币圈子里引发了大量的恐慌和绝望情绪。

That created a lot of, panic and and despair across the crypto community.

量子计算是一个很大的威胁，我们当时经常被问到这个问题。

Quantum was a big threat that we were being asked about a lot.

那确实是个负面因素。

That was a negative thing.

围绕《Clarify Act》（加密市场清晰度法案）存在各种不确定性，这个法案一直拖延、推迟、再拖延、再推迟，政客们对此也是含糊其辞、避重就轻。

There was all this uncertainty around the Clarity Act, which continued to get delayed and pushed and delayed and pushed, and there was a lot of hand waving by politicians around that.

所以当时加密圈里发生了这么多事，让投资者至少觉得现在最好别碰，或者觉得这摊子事儿太乱，但里面也有值得关注的亮点。

So you had all of these things happening in the crypto space that just made investors feel at a minimum, like, shouldn't touch that right now, or this thing is is a mess, and there's bright spots I should pay attention to.

然后八月份发生了一件有意思的事，比特币猛涨了将近30%，山寨币涨得更凶，与此同时股市开始疲软，之前对AI那种狂热的情绪也慢慢冷静下来了。

But then something interesting happened in August, and we had this massive run up near 30% in Bitcoin, a larger run up in Altcoins, and at the same time, you saw equities kind of trail off and a lot of euphoria around, AI start to settle out.

我觉得这就引发了市场对加密资产情绪的巨大转变。

And I think that led to this huge shift in sentiment towards crypto.

很明显，加密原生社区的情绪也开始回暖了。

Clearly, sentiment in the crypto, native community picked up.

你看到恐惧与贪婪指数飙升到了我们很久没见的高位。

You saw the fear and greed index spike to to highs we hadn't seen in a while.

你看到价格在涨，但同时也看到像ETF资金流入在八月加速，并且到九月还在继续加速。

You saw prices run, but you also saw things like ETF flows really accelerate in August and continue to accelerate a bit into September.

这告诉我们，机构投资者和非加密货币原生投资者大多又开始对加密货币感到兴奋了。

And what that tells us is that you have institutional investors and noncrypto native investors for the most part really starting to get excited about crypto again.

我们现在看到的是，在与顾问的对话中，乐观情绪明显增多。

And and what we're seeing now is a a lot more optimism in the conversations that we're having with advisers.

我上周刚参加了一个大型会议，是跟世界上最大的银行之一合作的，那里的顾问对加密货币的现状非常兴奋。

I was just at a large conference last, last week with one of the largest banks in the world, and the advisers there were really excited about what's happening in crypto.

我是说，Ish提到了代币化。

I mean, Ish mentioned tokenization.

这是大家非常关注的一个话题。

That's something that people are paying a lot of attention to.

稳定币当然是我们经常被问到的，但我们也经常被问到像Hyperliquid、永续合约以及IPO前股票这类东西。

Stablecoins, of course, something we're getting asked a lot about, but we're also getting asked about things like hyperliquid and perpetuals and and pre IPO stocks.

对吧？

Right?

这些对听众来说是新事物，但他们很感兴趣，也很兴奋。

Things that are are are new to this audience, but they're engaged with and they're excited about.

另一个引起关注的问题是，美国正在应对的40万亿美元债务问题。

The other thing that that reared its head was a 40,000,000,000,000, dollar debt issue that The US is, is dealing with.

对货币贬值的担忧让黄金上涨，我认为这也让投资者把注意力转向了比特币等资产。

Concerns about debasement, gold rallied, and I think that additionally drove investor attention to to things like Bitcoin.

所以，这种巨大的转变确实发生了。

So this huge shift absolutely did happen.

我们看到，随着年底临近，与我们合作的投资者参与度很高，新客户也在咨询如何投资比特币和其他加密资产。

We're seeing it with the level of engagement from investors that we work with with new inquiries from new clients who want exposure to Bitcoin and other crypto assets as we turn into the end of the year.

大家好。

Hi, everyone.

我是约翰。

This is John.

听好了。

Listen.

我们的Milk Road Pro分析师精准抓住了这轮AI牛市。

Our Milk Road Pro analysts nailed this AI bull market.

他们为我们的社区带来了大量高回报的投资机会。

They had dozens of calls pay off in a big way for our community.

如果你想了解我们整个分析师团队如何在熊市最终结束后为下一轮加密货币牛市布局，现在就可以加入Milk Road Pro。

If you wanna see how our entire team of analysts are positioning for the crypto bull market that's gonna come after this bear market finally ends, You can join us now at Milk Road Pro.

只要一美元。

It's just a dollar.

链接在描述里。

Link is in the description.

你将获得我们所有分析师的交易记录、他们的观察列表，以及他们如何在投资组合中应对当前市场的策略，还可以随时在Discord上向我们提问，不分昼夜。

You'll get access to all of our analyst trades, their watch list, and see how they're navigating this in their portfolios and get access to ask us questions in Discord anytime day or night.

只要一美元。

It's just a dollar.

链接在描述里。

Link's in the description.

Milk Road Pro。

Milk Road Pro.

现在加入。

Join now.

我们到时候见。

I'll see you there.

这信息真的很有帮助，Ryan。

That's really helpful context, Ryan.

谢谢。

Thank you.

我想听听你们两位对这个问题的看法，因为现在每个加密货币圈的人都在问：我们是不是处于一个新的比特币和加密货币牛市，还是这次会失败，然后回调？

I wanna hear from both of you on this question because the the question everyone in crypto is asking right now is, are we in a new Bitcoin and crypto bull market, or are we gonna fail this and, you know, retrace here?

我最近看到的Bitwise的研究显示，我们已经收复了几乎所有关键水平，比如短期持有者成本基础和200日均线，但还有83,000美元这个水平，这是今年5月那次突破失败的位置，现在还在我们头顶上。

The latest research I've seen from Bitwise says that we've reclaimed nearly every level that mattered, the short term holder cost basis, the two hundred day, but there's still this 83 k level, this failed breakout from, like, May of this year that we it's still over our heads.

我们还没突破那个位置。

We haven't gotten through it yet.

你们怎么看？

What's the view on this?

你们觉得我们已经确认进入新一轮牛市了吗？

Do you think that we have confirmed a new bull market?

你们觉得还有回调下跌的风险吗？

Do you think that there's still risk that we retrace to the downside?

我想听听你们两位的看法。

I wanna hear what both of you guys are on this.

Ish，你先

Ish, let's

来说说吧。

start with you.

好的。

Sure.

我觉得不会继续往下跌了。

I don't think we're going lower.

这点我可以肯定。

I will say that.

我认为这是自去年高点以来，我们看到的复苏开始的最有力确认。

I think this is the largest confirmation of the beginning of recovery we've seen since the highs of last year.

接下来几个月会不会横盘震荡？

Could we chop sideways for a few months to come?

有可能，也许吧。

Sure, maybe.

我知道接下来几个月从历史上看，表现通常比较弱。

I know some of the months we're entering historically have been some of the lower performers.

但我认为，过去几个月我们研究团队一直在强调的一个主题是，价格一直落后于基本面。

But I think one of the themes we've been highlighting on the research team for the past few months is how prices have lagged fundamentals.

我们讨论的这些，链上金融、代币化资产、波动率，它们的增长都在往上走。

All these things we're talking about, onchain finance, tokenized assets, vols, they're all up and to the right in terms of growth.

与此同时，价格却一直在挣扎。

Meanwhile, prices have been floundering.

而到了某个时候，这种情况就会重新定价，目前我们已经看到这种情况非常剧烈地发生，这将导致越来越多的人追涨，并可能把我们带入下一个牛市。

And at some point that was going to rerate and we've seen it happen very aggressively so far, and that's going to lead to more and more chasing and could lead us into the next bull market.

Ryan，同样的问题问你，也许再多谈谈九月的季节性。

Ryan, same question to you and maybe some more on that September seasonality.

中期选举年的九月，从历史上看，是持有比特币最糟糕的月份之一。

September of a midterm election year is historically one of the worst months to hold Bitcoin.

这让你担心吗？

Does that concern you?

这会不会影响你对是否已经触底的判断？

Does that factor into your your calculus on whether or we've bottomed here?

是的。

Yeah.

这是个好问题。

It's a it's a good question.

我觉得Ish说的那个意思，我再补充一下，因为这真的很重要，就是如果你回顾历史，那些表明我们正在走出熊市、进入牛市的信号，正是Ish提到的那个东西。

I think what what Ish is saying also is is I'll just add on to that, because it's really important, is that if you think about historically the signals that have have shown us that we're exiting a bear market and entering a a bull market, it's that exact thing that Ish mentioned.

对吧？

Right?

你会看到基本面发展和催化剂还没被市场消化，而价格却滞后，我们在八月份就看到了那种差距的修正。

You see fundamental developments and catalysts that aren't priced in and prices lagging, and we saw a little bit of that kind of correction to that gap happen in August.

但我认为还有很大的空间，只要你想一想我们在加密货币、稳定币、代币化、货币贬值、社交交易、链上金融、代理等所有这些大趋势上的基本面增长和积极势头。

But I think there's a lot more to go if you just think about all of the fundamental growth and, positive momentum we have across all these different megatrends in crypto, stablecoins, tokenization, debasement, social trading, onchain finance, agentic.

所有这些对行业来说都是个别的顺风，而且它们同时到来，而价格仍然比历史高点低40%以上。

All of these things are individual tailwinds for the industry, and they're coming at a time, all at once when prices are still down 40% or more from all time highs.

所以我认为这向我们表明，市场已经从冬天的绝望转向了至少是早春，而且前方还有很长的路要走。

So I think that's a signal to us that the market has shifted from despair in winter into at least early spring with a lot of runway ahead.

关于九月，不仅历史上对比特币来说是个糟糕的月份，而且对股票来说也是个糟糕的月份。

The thing about September is that not only is it historically a bad month for for Bitcoin, but it's also a bad month for equities historically.

上周我参加了一个大型RIA的投资委员会会议，他们非常关注九月历史上对股票来说是个艰难的月份这一事实。

I was at an investment committee meeting last week with a a large RIA, and they were heavily focused on the fact that September historically is a rough month for equities.

而且这里的问题是，再加上中期选举、利率的不确定性、财政部的干预，还有伊朗的冲突。

And the thing there is that you add the midterms, you add the uncertainty around interest rates, you add the intervention from the treasury, the conflict in Iran.

所有这些都增加了不确定性，让九月份的市场更加动荡。

All of those things just add uncertainty and create more choppy waters ahead for the month of September.

但同样真实的是，历史上第四季度是比特币表现最好的季度。

But what's also true is that q four historically is the best quarter for Bitcoin.

所以我认为，随着投资者，特别是财务顾问和财富管理者，退一步思考，他们会考虑年底与客户的会议。

And so what I think we continue to see as investors take a step back, particularly financial advisers and wealth managers, they think about the meetings they're gonna have with clients towards the end of the year.

他们会考虑如何为2027年做布局。

They think about how they wanna position for 2027.

而在这种背景下，一旦我们度过了这段不确定期，加密货币看起来会非常有吸引力。

And I think crypto looks very, very attractive against that backdrop and once we've pushed through this uncertainty.

下周，我们会有一些事情，无论结果如何，都会消除部分不确定性，那就是下一次FOMC会议，几乎是中期选举前的最后一次，还有参议院的清晰度投票。

Next week, we're gonna have a few things that that clear some of that uncertainty out of the way regardless of which way they go, and that's, of course, the next FOMC decision, almost the last one right before the midterms, and we'll have this clarity vote in the senate.

这两件事一旦推进，会让投资者安定下来，然后说，好的。

And those two things kind of being pushed through will allow investors to settle and say, okay.

我们现在处于什么位置？

Where are we at?

我们未来该怎么布局？

How do we wanna position for the future?

所以我觉得现在的形势非常非常好。

So I think the setup is really, really strong.

九月可能会比较波动，但我认为这会为第四季度扫清很多障碍和阻力。

September is likely going to be a choppy month, but I think that clears a lot of the runway and a lot of the obstacles for q four.

好的。

Okay.

这个展望真的很有帮助。

It's a really helpful outlook on that.

我想问问ETF的资金流向，因为2026年早些时候我们看到的主要趋势是ETF资金流出，根据不同的统计方式，大概在40亿到50亿之间。

I wanna ask about the ETF flows because a lot of the the direction of travel that we saw earlier in 2026 was outflows from ETFs, and depending on how you measure it, somewhere between, like, four and five billion of outflows.

这种情况开始扭转了吗？

Has that started to turn around?

是开始加速了，还是资金在回流？

Is it starting to accelerate, or is money coming back in?

你在ETF资金流方面看到了什么？

What are you seeing on the ETF flow side?

你们两位谁来说说。

Either one of you.

我觉得，伴随着最近价格大幅上涨30%，比特币、以太坊以及其他币种，我们看到ETF资金流明显上升，而且我认为这实际上抵消了今年所有的流出，或者几乎所有的流出，就在一周之内，比特币和以太坊的ETF都做到了。

I think coinciding with the recent massive jump in prices 30%, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and beyond, we saw ETF flows inflect higher, and I think it actually offset all the outflows or almost all the outflows from this year, all within a week for Bitcoin and Ether ETFs.

但有趣的是，2026年至今，一些其他加密资产ETF在整个过程中都保持了正流入，即使价格表现不佳，比如Solana和Hyperliquid。

But interestingly, 2026 year to date, some other crypto asset ETFs maintain positive inflows throughout all of it, even as prices floundered, namely Solana and Hyperliquid.

不过，让Ryan来补充一下。

But I'll let Ryan add on to that.

对。

Yeah.

不。

No.

我觉得没错。

I think that's right.

而且，历史上我们通常也看到，从加密寒冬走向牛市的时候，各个资产和生态系统开始表现得比市场更好，或者特别出色。

It's also another thing that we typically have seen historically when exiting crypto winters into bull markets is that you see individual assets and ecosystems start to perform better than the market or particularly well.

我同意Ish的看法。

And I and I agree with Ish.

我们最近看到Solana就是这样。

We've seen that happen with Solana recently.

Hyperliquid也是这样。

We've seen that happen with Hyperliquid.

你还会看到市场其他一些领域有很多势头，比如Robinhood链，或者社交交易。

You're seeing other areas of the market where there's a lot of momentum, whether it's Robinhood chain or pawns and social trading.

这些领域彼此不同，但都表现出强劲的走势和势头。

Like, these are areas that are distinct from one another and showing strong performance and momentum.

所以ETF资金流是衡量投资者情绪的好方法，因为它确实直接影响价格。

And so ETF flows is a great way to gauge investor sentiment because it really has a direct impact on price.

对吧？

Right?

资金流入ETF后，我们就去买现货资产并托管起来；反过来，当资金流出时，情况正好相反。

The assets come into the ETFs, then we go out and buy the spot asset and put it into custody, And the inverse is true when when dollars flow out.

而且我认为，我们看到资金进入这个领域，很大程度上抵消了去年第四季度十月十日闪崩后以及今年上半年经历的流出，这正说明资本实际上真的在回流到这个生态系统中。

And I think the fact that we've seen capital come into the space to largely offset the outflows that we experienced in q four last year following the October ten flash crash and in the first half of this year is that signal that capital actually is really returning to the ecosystem.

关于ETF资金流，要记住的一点是，在比特币ETF推出的第一年，我们看到了350亿美元的资金流入。

And the thing to remember about ETF flows is that we saw 35,000,000,000 of inflows into Bitcoin ETFs in the first year that they launched.

所以如果我们说的是八月份一个月内30亿或40亿美元，那我们还只是触及了可能进入这个领域的资本规模的冰山一角。

So if we're talking about 3,000,000,000 or 4,000,000,000 in a month of August, we are still just at the tip of the iceberg in terms of the type of capital that can come into the space.

现在我们还有其他ETF，比如Hyperliquid、Solana、XRP、以太坊等等，这些也能让资本进入生态系统，创造买入压力和上行动力。

Now we have other ETFs, Hyperliquids, Solana, XRP, Ethereum, etcetera, which also can allow capital to come into the ecosystem, create buying pressure and upward momentum.

而且很多ETF买家本质上就是长期持有者。

And a lot of ETF buyers are long term holders by nature.

他们会把这些资产加入模型投资组合。

They add them to model portfolios.

他们会按系统化的时间表进行再平衡。

They rebalance on a systematic schedule.

他们基本上就是设定好然后就不管了。

They they kind of set and forget.

我觉得这也是一个积极的信号，就是我们正在从那些可能只是想退出头寸的投资者，转向那些因为一直亏损而高兴能收回一点损失的投资者。

And I think that's a positive signal as well is that we're rotating out of maybe investors who are just trying to exit their positions because they've been holding out a loss, and they're happy to get a little bit of a of a reclaim of those losses.

我们正在转向那些为未来两三年、三四年重新布局的投资者，这些资金是粘性资本，显然对价格有影响。

And we're transitioning to investors who are repositioning for the next two, three, four years, and that's sticky capital and clearly has an impact on price.

太好了。

Excellent.

真的很有帮助，关于ETF市场的这个视角，而且很高兴听到离开的资金已经回来了，甚至更多。

Really helpful, like, just view of the ETF space there, and it's nice to hear that the the capital that left has come back and then some.

听到所有这些背景信息真是太好了。

It's it's great to hear all of that context.

我想问你一个Ryan稍微提到过的问题，就是Robinhood链上的那种狂热。

Ish, I wanna ask you about something Ryan touched on a little bit, the the frenzy on the Robinhood chain.

我想听听你的看法，因为很明显，代币化方面正在发生一些创新。

I'd like to get your reaction because, obviously, there's some innovation that's happening around tokenization.

就像Ryan说的，这给加密货币带来了很多关注和热情。

And like Ryan said, it's brought a lot of attention, enthusiasm back to to crypto.

不过现在主要还是模因币的热潮，有些人因此对它不屑一顾。

It is still right now, though, just mostly a meme coin frenzy, and some people are kind of dismissive as a result.

你怎么看？

What's your reaction?

你对此有什么想法？

What are your thoughts on this?

对。

Yeah.

我觉得Robinhood链上发生的事情很疯狂，这是历史上最成功的链上线之一，尤其是在二层网络方面。

I think crazy things happening on Robinhood Chain, one of the most successful launches of a chain, especially at layer two in history.

我觉得要分析Robinhood链上发生的事情，那些模因币本身才是噪音。

I think breaking down what's going on on Robinhood chain, I think what's noise is the meme coins themselves.

显然，它们并不是为了保值而存在的。

Obviously, they're not meant to retain value.

它们只是快速交易，是情绪的表达。

They're just quick trades, sentiments.

但我认为，其中的信号是，Robinhood链上正在形成真正的商业。

But I think the signal there is there's real businesses forming on Robinhood chain.

即使它们只是推出模因币的发射平台，也有真正的企业在产生真实的费用收入，因为真实用户正在链上进行交易。

Even if they are just launching meme coin launch pads, there's real businesses that are generating real fee revenue as real users are coming and transacting on the chain.

过去一年，加密货币活动出现了巨大的复苏。

That's been a huge resurgence in crypto activity over the past year.

在市场真正平静下来的时候，Robinhood链引领市场进入了更活跃的时期。

As the market really quieted down, Robinhood Chain has led the market into some more active times.

我认为，除了模因币发射平台之外，那里还有一些有趣的创新。

I think there are some interesting innovations there beyond just MemeCoin launchpads.

代币化股票有大量资金流入，甚至还有一些有趣的协议，将代币化股票与模因币配对。

There's been huge inflows of tokenized stocks and even some interesting protocols that are pairing tokenized stocks with meme coins.

他们会把模因币交易的费用再投资到代币化股票中，然后向用户支付分红。

They'll reinvest fees from meme coin trading into tokenized stocks and then pay dividends to users.

这是一个有趣的用例，我觉得这就是Robinhood链上正在发生的事情。

That's an interesting use case, and I think that's what's happening on a Robinhood chain.

对。

Yeah.

这方面确实有很多动态。

There's a lot going on with that.

Ryan，上次你来做客时，我们聊到了一些代币化产品，就是Bitwise和Coinbase以及其他合作伙伴一起推出的，叫做自动化代币组合，我到现在还在琢磨这个说法。

Ryan, the last time you were on, you and I were talking about some tokenized products, that Bitwise is collaborating with Coinbase on and and other partners as well, but, it's called automated token portfolios, which I'm still getting my arms around that language.

跟我聊聊这个产品上线一个月以来的最新进展吧，比如，大家对这些产品的初步反应怎么样？还有，自从我们上次聊过之后，都发生了些什么？

But talk to me a little bit about the updates in in the month since this has gone live and just, like, what's been the initial reaction to those products and, yeah, just catch me up on on what's happened since we last spoke.

对。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

好的，没问题。

Happy to.

如果我没记错的话，我们上次聊的时候，正好是 Bitwise 和 Glider、Coinbase 一起推出自动化代币投资组合的那天。

I think we we spoke, if I'm not mistaken, on the day that Bitwise launched automated token portfolios alongside Glider and Coinbase.

所以很高兴能再次来到这里，和你聊聊这件事。

So happy to be back here and and chatting with it about you.

顺便说一句，我今天还挺自豪的。

And today proud of that, by the way.

这个独家消息是我抢到的。

I scooped that story on everybody.

所以，是的，我很自豪那天我们就在同一天请到了你。

So, yeah, I am proud we got you on this day same day that happened.

不过，好的，请继续。

But, yes, please continue.

没错，就是这样。

That that's right.

那是Bitwise在自动化代币投资组合方面第一次接受媒体采访。

That was the first media appearance anyone Bitwise had around automated token portfolios.

所以我也很好。

So I will I am well as well.

我也为此感到自豪。

I'm I'm proud of that.

你看。

Look.

自动化代币投资组合的意义在于，它让链上投资者能够接触到专业设计的策略，同时自己保管这些资产。

The thing with automated token portfolios is that it's a way for onchain investors to get exposure to professionally designed strategies and self custody those holdings in their wallet.

这真正体现了代币化的核心价值。

That unlocks so much of what tokenization is all about.

你可以在DeFi中利用这些资产进行借贷。

You can lend and borrow against these in DeFi.

你也可以自己调整策略。

You can make adjustments to the strategies yourself.

比如说，如果你不喜欢策略里的某只股票，你可以把它卖掉。

For instance, if you don't like one of the equities in the strategies, you can sell it.

策略的其他部分还是会按照设计继续运行。

The rest of the strategy still chugs along as it's designed.

Glider 的底层技术会帮你处理所有的再平衡，确保你自行托管的资产组合遵循这个专业设计的策略。

And Glider's underlying technology handles all of the rebalancing for you and ensures that the portfolio of assets that you're self custodying follows this professionally designed strategy.

这在传统金融界是非常流行的模式。

And it's a very popular model in the traditional finance world.

对吧？

Right?

很多机构使用模型投资组合，这些组合遵循标准的再平衡时间表或指数基金，这些基金对特定主题指数或其他指数中的资产有规则。

A lot of institutions use model portfolios that follow a standard rebalance schedule or index funds, which have rules around what assets are in this specific thematic index or other index.

他们会按市值加权进行再平衡，等等。

They rebalance their market cap weighted, etcetera.

所以我们非常兴奋能把这种传统模式带到链上。

And so we were really excited about taking this traditional model and bringing it on chain.

我觉得这正好说明了我们未来的方向，你会看到传统金融被重建、改进，变得更普及、更便宜，比传统世界里的还要好。

I think it's an example of where we're headed, which is you're going to see traditional finance rebuilt and improved and made more accessible and less expensive than it is in the traditional world.

而且我觉得，这正是我们这些在加密货币领域的人这么多年来一直兴奋不已的原因，现在终于成真了。

And I think that's really what, you know, all of us in crypto have been so excited about for so many years, and it's finally happening.

自从首批自动化代币组合推出以来，我们看到Coinbase把更多股票代币化了。

Since the launch of the first automated token portfolios, we've seen Coinbase tokenize more stocks.

所以，你可以用来设计策略的资产范围扩大了。

So the universe of assets you can design strategies around has expanded.

我觉得这很棒，因为你会看到越来越多的独特策略在自动化代币组合中被构建出来。

I think that's great because you can start to see more and more unique strategies built out in the automated token portfolios.

而且我认为，投资者对这些东西的兴趣会越来越浓厚。

And I think we'll continue to see more and more investor interest in these things.

所以，自动化代币组合能取得这么大的成功，真的让人兴奋，但它们其实才刚刚起步。

So it's it's really exciting that automated token portfolios have seen so much success, but they are literally just getting started.

我们觉得，未来五到十年，这会成为一个几万亿美元的业务，就像ETF在三十年内从零增长到三十万亿美元一样。

We think they're gonna be a several trillion dollar business in the next five, ten years in the same way that ETFs went from 0 to 30,000,000,000,000 in thirty years.

我们认为自动化代币投资组合也有同样的增长潜力，这些是链上的策略。

We see the same potential growth for automated token portfolios, which are onchain, strategies.

Ish，我也想听听你对这个产品的看法。

Ish, I'd love to get your thoughts on this product as well.

你知道，正如Ryan指出的，ETF已经成为一个数万亿美元的行业。看起来自动化代币投资组合或代币化资产可能会成为替代品或竞争对手。

You know, as Ryan pointed out, ETFs have become a many, many trillion dollar industry, It seems like automated token portfolios or tokenized assets could become an alternative, a competitor.

你觉得这个领域会如何发展？

Just how do you see this landscape evolving?

你对这一切有什么看法？

What's your view on all of this?

对。

Yeah.

我认为自动化代币投资组合，类似于金库，是一种非常有趣的方式，会吸引更多资金上链。

I think automated token portfolios, similar to vaults, are a really interesting way that's gonna bring more capital onchain.

这确实为管理策略打开了大门，尤其是金库，这些策略从各种来源产生收益，比如循环策略和ATP。

It really opens the doors to manage strategies, especially vaults, things that are generating yield from various sources like looping strategies and ATPs as well.

有很多不同的东西，个人用户自己组合起来可能会很复杂，但把它们打包成一键点击的解决方案，我觉得会带来更多资金上链。

There's a lot of different things that might be complicated for an individual user to put together themselves, but packaging them nicely into clickable button solutions, I think, is going to bring a lot more capital onchain.

你觉得这个产品最适合哪些人使用？

Who do you think this who do you think this product is ideally suited for?

这是为那些不太懂金融、只想一键获得一些敞口的散户投资者设计的，还是你更倾向于认为它适合机构或专业资本解决方案，还是说其实每个人都会以某种方式用到它？

Is this meant to be for, like, the retail investor who doesn't really know a whole lot about finance and just wants a little, like, one one click way to get some some exposure in this way, or is this more something you see as being suited for more institutional, more professional capital solutions, or is it really, like, everybody's gonna come to this in some way or another?

跟我说说，你们觉得这个产品最适合的用户群体是谁，你们俩谁都可以说。

Like, talk me through who the user base you see, this to be well suited for, either one of you.

对。

Yeah.

我很乐意先来回答，然后也许Ish可以补充。

I'm happy to to take this, then maybe Ish can can add on.

你看。

Look.

目前，这些产品面向的是非美国投资者，主要针对那些已经在链上、但在传统投资组合中无法获得这类策略的投资者。

Today, these are available to non US investors, and primarily, it's targeted at investors who are onchain and don't have access to these types of strategies in their traditional portfolios.

对吧？

Right?

所以在美国，我们很容易就能通过个人券商账户和投资组合接触到那七家巨头公司，这是我们推出的第一个自动化代币投资组合，也就是‘七巨头加SpaceX’。

So so it's easy for us in The US to gain exposure to the MAG 7 x in our in our individual brokerage accounts and portfolios, right, which is the first automated token portfolio that we that we launched, which is the MAG 7 plus SpaceX.

但如果你想想印度、非洲或南美洲的个人投资者，历史上他们很难、甚至不可能，或者成本极高地去投资美股，而美股却是全球最重要、规模最大的股票市场。

But if you think about a individual in India or in Africa or South America, it's historically difficult or impossible or very expensive to gain exposure to US based equities, yet this is the the most important and largest equity market in the world.

现在，这些投资者只要有一部智能手机和一个加密钱包，点几下按钮，就能直接在他们的加密钱包里投资全球最大的那些公司。

So now these investors with a smartphone and a crypto wallet can gain exposure to the biggest companies in the world directly in their crypto wallet with a few clicks of a button.

而且我觉得这一点真的特别重要，因为这不仅仅是说你对金融不太了解，然后就能接触到这些东西了，而是指那些其实非常懂行的投资者。

And and I think that's really, really important because it's not just the the it's not that it's you know, you don't know about finance and now you get exposure to these things, but it's actually investors who, you know, are very savvy.

他们足够精通，会用去中心化金融，甚至链下操作，比如做流动性提供者、借贷，或者把资金分配到金库等等。

They're savvy enough to use DeFi and beyondchain and maybe LP or lend and borrowed, allocate to vaults, etcetera.

这帮他们解锁了市场中最大的一块领域，让他们能够接触到。

This just unlocks a massive the most massive part of the market for them to access.

现在他们可以持有那种能产生收益的金库策略了。

Now they can hold a a a yield generating vault strategy.

他们可以持有比特币。

They can hold Bitcoin.

他们可以持有以太坊、Solana、Hyperliquid、Lighter、XRP等等，同时还有Mag 7和SpaceX，也就是全球最大的上市公司，而在传统结构下，除非是超高净值个人，或者地理位置方便接触这些市场，否则他们根本无法做到。

They can hold Ethereum, Solana, Hyperliquid, Lighter, XRP, whatever, alongside the Mag seven, and SpaceX, right, the largest publicly traded companies in the world when they just couldn't do it in the traditional structure unless they were an ultra high net worth individual or geographically situated in a place where it was easy to access those markets.

所以今天的主要受众是非美国投资者和个人投资者。

So the primary audience today is non US investors and individual investors.

最终，我认为一旦基础设施转换完成，我们会看到财务顾问、对冲基金以及各种传统投资公司都在链上使用ATP。

Eventually, I think we'll see financial advisors, hedge funds, all kinds of traditional investment firms accessing ATPs onchain once you have the conversions of that infrastructure.

但比如，美国以外的顾问，由于这些产品不对美国投资者开放，他们无法代表客户在钱包中托管资产。

But for instance, an adviser outside The US, since these are not available to US investors, can't custody assets in a wallet on behalf of their clients.

对吧？

Right?

比如，他们使用的平台和基础设施，以及他们使用的传统系统，目前还没有为此构建或升级。

Like, the infrastructure for them and the platforms they use, the traditional systems they use aren't built or upgraded for that today.

但你可以想象，在两三年、五年后的世界里，在他们用来托管链上资产的平台内，将资产托管在他们的计费伞下的能力，将会像托管传统资产一样无缝和简单。

But you can envision a world in two, three, five years where the ability to custody assets under their, billable umbrella within the platforms they use to custody onchain assets is is as seamless and as easy as custodying traditional assets.

我觉得到那时候，这些产品的可调整市场才会真正扩大，把专业投资者群体也纳入进来，和散户投资者一起。

And I think that's where you start to see the adjustable market for these products really expand to include the professional investor community alongside the individual investor community.

对。

Yeah.

而且，我想补充一下Ryan说的，我觉得最终我们会看到美国出现代币化股票。

And just to to add to what Ryan is saying, I think eventually we will see tokenized stocks in The US.

到那时，投资者群体可能就不只是那些第一次接触美股的国际投资者了，还会包括那些可能只是想投资一个很有意思的策略的散户，比如Ryan Rasmussen的十大精选股之类的。

And at that point, you'll probably see investor base expand beyond the international investors who are accessing US stocks for the first time to individual investors who might just want to invest in a really interesting strategy, like top 10 picks from Ryan Rasmussen or something like that.

我觉得ATP的一大优点就是上线速度快，因为它们是自我托管的跟单交易组合，人们可以直接跟随。

I think that's one of the great things about ATPs is the speed of launch, which you can achieve with it because they're just self custodying copy trading portfolios that people can follow.

对。

Yeah.

我都等不及想看Ryan的迷因币投资组合上链了。

I can't wait to see Ryan's meme coin portfolio come on chain.

那一定会是个好日子。

That's gonna be a great day.

好的。

Okay.

Ish，我想问你一个问题。

Ish, I wanna ask you about this.

你花了很多时间深入研究链上产品和项目，以及代币化到底是怎么在链上实现的。

You do a lot of time doing deep dives on onchain products and projects and and how tokenization, is actually coming onchain.

你能跟我聊聊，从你的角度来看，这里面的赢家和输家都有哪些吗？

Can you talk to me a little bit about some of the winners and losers here from your perspective?

因为我觉得很多人听到“代币化”这个词，但不太清楚它具体是什么意思，怎么参与进去，或者哪些项目会受益，哪些人会被淘汰。

Because I think a lot of people are they hear this buzzword of tokenization, but they don't know exactly what this means, how to get exposure to it, or which projects benefit, which people are gonna, you know, get displaced.

跟我聊聊你对这个的看法吧，你觉得真正的赢家会是谁？

Talk to me a little bit about your your outlook on that and and where you see, like, the the real the real winners from this being.

当然可以。

Sure.

关于谁在代币化中胜出，我的看法是，我会把它分成三个层面，因为代币化涉及一整个技术栈，而在这个技术栈的各个层面都有赢家。

The way I think about who's winning in tokenization, I I think I break it down into three layers because there's a whole stack that's happening for tokenization, and there's entities who are winning all throughout that stack.

最上层是发行方，比如 Ondo、XDocs 和 Denari。

At the top, you have the issuers like Ondo, XDocs, Denari.

他们通过把这些股票带上链、创建 SPV 架构，并提供 24/7 的资产来赚钱。

They're generating revenue from bringing these stocks onchain, creating the SPV wrappers and offering the 20 fourseven assets themselves.

中间层是 DeFi 平台，这些代币化股票就在这些平台上被使用。

Then you have the middle layer, which is the DeFi platforms where these tokenized stocks are being used.

比如 Aave，人们可以用代币化股票进行借贷，或者 Uniswap，在那里用稳定币交易这些股票。

Maybe that's Aave, where people can lend and borrow against tokenized stocks, or Uniswap, where they're trading them against stablecoins.

最底层是这些发行方和协议部署的 Layer 1 区块链，尤其是以太坊和 Solana。

Then at the base layer, where those issuers and those protocols are all deployed, would be the layer ones, particularly Ethereum and Solana.

以太坊上拥有大约一半的稳定币和一半的代币化资产，这些价值都累积到了 ETH 代币上，无论是通过实际对 ETH 的需求来支付交易费用，还是让 ETH 成为链上金融新时代的全球结算层，这都赋予了 ETH 代币价值。

Ethereum has about half of all stablecoins, half of all tokenized assets are on Ethereum, and that's accruing value to the ETH token, whether it's just from actual demand for ETH, for paying for transaction fees, or just creating ETH as the global settlement layer for this new age of onchain finance that assigns a value to the ETH token.

所以我认为，代币化堆栈的这三个层面都在积累价值。

So I think there's value accruing to those three layers of the tokenization stack.

你知道，我们在这个节目里经常讨论的一个话题是，加密货币正在迅速成为全球支付基础设施的重要组成部分，而这一点在亚洲表现得最为明显。

You know, one thing we've talked about a lot on this show is that crypto is quickly becoming a huge part of the global payments infrastructure, and nowhere is that more obvious than in Asia.

但如果你真的在运营一家汇款公司或支付业务，你会知道难点不在于转移稳定币。

But if you're actually running a remittance company or a payment business, you know that the hard part isn't moving the stablecoins.

难点在于处理当地银行合作伙伴、合规、流动性，以及向印度和东南亚等地汇款时带来的所有运营上的麻烦。

It's dealing with local banking partners, compliance, liquidity, and all of the operational headaches that come with sending money into places like India and Southeast Asia.

这就是为什么今天的合作伙伴是Saber。

That's why today's partner is Saber.

他们为支付公司提供基于稳定币的基础设施，帮助它们在亚洲各地收款和付款，而无需自己构建所有这些复杂的系统。

They give payment companies stablecoin powered infrastructure to collect and make payouts across Asia without having to build all of that complexity themselves.

他们已经在40多个国家处理了超过30亿美元的交易，所以这不仅仅是一个概念。

They've already processed more than $3,000,000,000 in transactions across 40 different countries, so this isn't just a concept.

这些人确实在实实在在地做这件事。

These guys are actually doing this for real.

如果你正在构建支付基础设施或扩展到亚洲，一定要去看看saber.money。

If you're building payment infrastructure or expanding into Asia, make sure you check out saber.money.

是的。

Yeah.