丹·塔皮耶罗：加密货币正进入一个更大的牛市

所以到2035年，我们认为比特币的价值可以达到20万亿美元。

So by 2035, we think Bitcoin can get to 20,000,000,000,000 in value.

所以那是从现在的10倍。

So that's a 10 x from here.

比特币从大约12.5万美元跌到6万美元以下，现在又回升到接近8万美元，所有这些都发生在同一个十二个月期间内。

Bitcoin went from around a $125,000 down to below 60,000 and is right now back up near $80,000 all within the same twelve month period.

这种波动性你只在过山车和加密货币中才能找到，而现在，加密货币更有趣。

That kind of volatility you only find in roller coasters and in crypto, and right now, it is much more fun in crypto.

大家好，欢迎收听Milk Road Crypto播客，这个播客旨在解释为什么像bike、Tyson和laptop这样的模因币对金融的未来至关重要。

Hello, and welcome to Milk Road Crypto, the podcast that's here to explain why meme coins like bike, Tyson, and laptop are absolutely essential to the future of finance.

今天，我们邀请到了数字资产宏观大师本人，Dan Tapiero。

And today, we are joined by the macro master of digital assets himself, Dan Tapiero.

Dan是50T Funds的创始人兼CEO，自2019年以来，他一直是为数不多的公开看好加密货币的华尔街宏观思想家之一。

Dan is the founder and CEO of 50T Funds where he has been one of the few Wall Street macro thinkers publicly bullish on crypto since 2019.

他管理着大约20亿美元的资产，目前他正在为50T Funds的第五只基金筹集资金。

He manages roughly 2,000,000,000 in assets, and he is out now raising fifty t funds fund five right now.

丹会给我们带来他对加密货币的最新看法，以及现在市场上正在发生的所有事情。

And Dan is gonna give us an updated look at his thoughts on crypto and all the things that are going on in the markets right now.

如果你觉得不错，记得点赞和订阅，把这期节目分享给会喜欢的朋友。

If that sounds good to you, make sure you like and subscribe, share this episode with somebody who's gonna enjoy it.

提醒一下，我们今天的播客是免费的，这要感谢我们的优秀合作伙伴saber.money，一个为亚洲打造的稳定币支付平台。

As a reminder, our podcast today is free, and that would not be possible without our wonderful partners at saber.money, the stablecoin payments platform built for Asia.

所以请留意，稍后在节目中会有更多关于他们的信息。

So keep an ear out for more information on them later in the episode.

但现在，欢迎回来，我最喜欢的嘉宾之一，丹·塔皮耶罗。

But for now, welcome back to one of my favorite guests, Dan Tapiero.

你好吗，先生？

How are you, sir?

嘿，约翰。

Hey, John.

很高兴见到你。

Good to see you.

我不知道我到底会不会聊模因币，或者迈克·泰森。

I don't know that I'm gonna talk about Meme Coins at all or, Mike Tyson.

咱们先把话说清楚。

Let's just get that straight.

我不知道你的听众是不是期待这些。

I don't know if your listeners are expecting that.

我们今天不打算聊这些。

We're not gonna get into that today.

我觉得这样可能最好。

I think that's probably what's best.

但是，丹，我真正想聊的是我最近看到你在推特上发的东西，你说牛市已经开始了。

But, Dan, what I do wanna get into is something I've seen you tweeting about recently, which is that you've said that the bull market has now begun.

预计数字资产生态系统会爆发式增长。

Expect digital asset ecosystem explosion up.

你是我在推特上最喜欢关注的人之一。

You're one of my favorite follows on Twitter.

大家现在都在争论这个问题。

People have been debating this right now.

加密货币的牛市是不是又开始了？

Has the crypto bull market started again?

熊市还在继续吗？

Is the bear market still going?

你对这个话题怎么看？

Where do you land on this conversation?

你有什么想法？

What are your thoughts on this?

嗯，

Well,

对，我刚刚插进来一下，因为我没办法一下子回答太多问题。

yeah, I I just jumped in here a little bit because I can't answer too many questions all at once.

就像一次一个那样。

It's like one at a time.

所以我觉得，在我所说的广义数字资产生态系统里，有一些特定的领域。

So I think there are certain spots within what I call broadly the digital asset ecosystem.

也就是说，我从2019年起就一直把它叫做DAE。

So that is, and I have been calling it that the DAE since 2019, basically.

这个观点就是，所有有价值的东西，包括钱，最终都会转移到链上。

And that is sort of view that all things of value, money will eventually move on chain.

而且，你知道，外面存在的资产和价值，包括房地产、股票、债券等等，总数接近809,100,000,000,000,000美元。

And, you know, the total number there is something close to, you know, $809,100,000,000,000,000 dollars of assets and value that exists out there between, you know, real estate and stocks and bonds and everything.

大概就是这个数字。

That's roughly the number.

所以从一开始我就一直认为，一方面，比特币是这个领域的核心资产，是最纯粹的抵押品，是最原始的代码。

And so I'd always thought from the very beginning that on the one hand, Bitcoin is the core asset of the space, the pristine collateral, the original code.

这些都是比特币。

That's all Bitcoin.

其他一切都源于比特币。

Everything else sort of derives from Bitcoin.

而且我觉得以太坊和索拉纳现在也出现了，它们也是这个领域的核心三大资产，其他山寨币世界里的东西，基本上都算是风险投资项目。

And I think Ethan Solana have come along now and also are, you know, the core three assets, you know, in the space and and pretty much everything else of the altcoin world, we'll just say is just more of a venture project.

所以，我们大概从2022年的底部开始，就处于数字资产生态系统的牛市阶段了。

So we've been in the midst of a bull phase for the DAE broadly, probably since the bottom in 'twenty two.

我这么说是什么意思呢？

So what do I mean?

稳定币、现实世界资产、预测市场，所有这些链上的货币、资本和价值的使用，都在上涨。

Stablecoins, RWAs, prediction markets, all of these sort of on chain uses of money, capital, value have been up into the right.

所以即使比特币和以太坊这些加密货币本身处于相当严峻的熊市阶段。

So even as Bitcoin and ETH and the cryptocurrencies themselves have been in a pretty, I think, a pretty harsh bear phase.

我的意思是，从2025年7月的峰值以来，市场基本上就是一路下跌。

I mean, since the peak in July 25, the market basically just went straight down.

我觉得那速度相当快。

I mean, it was I think it was quite quick.

跌了60%。

I mean, 60%.

你知道，有些山寨币已经跌了90%。

Some of the alts, as you know, are down 90%.

有些还在从21年的高点继续下跌。

And some of them are still going down from their 21 peaks.

所以你可以想象，直到大约一个半月前，有些山寨币从21年的高点跌了99.5%。

So you can imagine up until about, you know, a month and a half ago, had certain altcoins that were down 99.5% from their 21 peaks.

当然，NFT，也就是非同质化代币，我也把它们算作广义DAE的一部分，它们在21年达到顶峰。

And of course, NFTs, I also non fungible tokens, which I also include as part of the broad DAE, they peaked in 'twenty one.

从大局来看，我仍然认为代表数字代币有巨大的用途，不仅仅是艺术，而是所有可以在区块链上注册的具体物品。

I still, big picture, think that there's a huge use for digital tokens that represent It's not just art, but all items, all specific items that can be registered on a blockchain.

对吧？

Right?

比如，我认为围绕PFP的一些炒作，那些是图片，对吧？

Like I think that some of the hype around the PFPs, those are the pictures, right?

NFT有点失控了，你知道，无聊猿之类的。

The NFTs got a little out of control, you know, Bored Ape, etcetera.

但我确实觉得它还是有应用场景的。

But I do think there's a use case there.

而且把财产权数字化，本质上也就是这么回事，这点很重要。

And digitizing property rights, which is essentially what that is, is important.

只是这个领域在去中心化应用方面表现得比较平淡，没怎么出圈。

It's just that area of the DAE has sort of stayed within its its bare face.

所以我想说的是，你问我比特币牛市是不是回来了？

And so I think that, you know, you ask me, is the bull market in Bitcoin, you know, is it back?

所以，我觉得比特币已经触底了。

So, I think Bitcoin bottomed.

以太坊也触底了。

ETH also bottomed.

我觉得所有东西都触底了。

I think everything bottomed.

然后出现了一个不错的催化剂，就是SEC发布了一则公告。

And we had a nice catalyst in there was an SEC announcement.

你知道，不管那个明确法案通不通过，我觉得SEC和CFTC都会发布白皮书，确认我们这个世界里的某些活动是合法的或者没问题的。

You know, whether clarity gets passed or not, I think that the SEC and the CFTC are going to be passing, putting out white papers that confirm that certain activities within our world are legitimate or okay.

我觉得现在看起来，可能不会有一个全面的、总体的明确法案通过，但可能会有一些小法案，他们能达成一致。

I think now it seems like we may not get one overall or overarching clarity act that passes, but we might get little bills that they can agree on.

所以那是一个催化剂。

So that was one catalyst.

但后来，当然，贝森特部长出来说他要买国债。

But then, of course, Secretary Bessent came out and said he was going to buy treasuries.

我觉得这有点像量化宽松，但他买的是那些长期、非活跃的债券。

I think it's a form, a little bit of quantitative easing, but he's buying these off the run long dated bonds.

我觉得，你知道，对财政部来说，买这些三十年期、折价很大而且流动性很差的债券更便宜。

I think it's just, you know, it's cheaper for the treasury to buy these thirty year bonds that are trading at big discounts that are also very illiquid.

所以他是在整合债券市场的流动性。

So he's consolidating the liquidity in the bond market.

而且，我觉得他可能也在净增加一点。

And again, I think he's probably adding net a little bit too.

而且这也引发了另一件事，有趣的是，几乎在同一时间，日本央行和贝森特出手干预了美元兑日元，汇率在1.63。

And that also kicked off and interestingly happened almost at the same time that the BOJ, Bank of Japan, and Besant came in and intervened in dollar yen at $1.63.

所以，这当然基本上为黄金价格筑了底。

So that, of course, pretty much put the bottom in for gold.

美元和黄金的负相关性非常高。

The dollar has a very high negative correlation with gold.

所以我会非常密切关注美元。

So I would watch the dollar very carefully.

昨天，贝森特出来了。

Yesterday, Bessen came out.

我马上会回答你们所有的问题。

I'm going to come around to answering all your questions.

但他出来说，看，如果有人想在美元兑日元上跟我对着干，祝你好运。

But came around and said, look, if anybody wants to come up against me in the dollar yen, good luck.

明白吗？

Okay?

斯科特大概是，你知道的，全世界所有国家的财政部长里，对美元兑日元汇率最了解的一个。

Scott is probably, you know, certainly the most knowledgeable treasury secretary of any country in the world on the dollaryen cross.

我觉得，我是说，可能他的背景不如一些日本财务大臣那么深厚。

I would argue I mean, maybe not as much background as maybe some of the Japanese financial ministers.

但实际上，如果让我来赌，而且我是个爱下注的人，我认为斯科特管理美元兑日元汇率到应有水平的能力，甚至可以说比日本官员还要强。

But actually, if I were, and I am a betting man, I think Scott's ability to manage the dollar yen rate to where it needs to be is even, I would say, superior in a way to even the Japanese officials.

而且他们现在正在合作。

And they're working together now.

所以我有点意外。

So I was a little surprised.

我是说，这挺有意思的。

I mean, it's interesting.

加密货币圈、区块链圈的人，不管你怎么称呼他们，他们根本不关注美元。

People in the crypto world, blockchain, however you want, they don't follow the dollar.

他们甚至不知道美元兑日元是什么。

They don't even know what dollaryen is.

好的。

Okay.

对于像我这样的老宏观交易员来说，我和斯科特多年前就认识了，我们算是同一类人。

For old time macro guys like me, and I know Scott from years ago, we're in a sort of similar world.

当然，他比我年长一些。

He's a bit older than me, of course.

我们都为斯坦·德鲁肯米勒工作过。

We both work for Stan Druckenmiller.

所以我们显然非常默契。

So we're a little more obviously very attuned.

尽管我不交易那些东西，但每次打开彭博终端，我还是很难不去看美元汇率。

It's hard for me, even though I don't trade any of that stuff, it's very hard for me to not look at the dollar again every single time I look at my Bloomberg.

你知道，斯科特已经交易美元三十五年了，这已经成了习惯。

It's just something, you know, Scott's been trading the dollar again for thirty five years.

所以对美元的干预是件大事。

So the intervention in the dollar is a big deal.

这种情况不常发生。

It doesn't happen very often.

我是说，1998年我记得很清楚，我相信他也记得，因为鲍勃·鲁宾把美元兑日元从大概150打到100，就像一瞬间的事，或者110，反正就是那样。

I mean, I remember 1998 very clearly, as I'm sure he does, because Bob Rubin took dollar yen down from whatever it was, 150 to 100, like in a nanosecond or 110 or whatever it was.

再说，那是很久以前的事了，但我们当时都是靠密切关注美元兑日元来赚取收益的。

Again, that's a long time ago, but all of us, made our performance back then watching this dollar yen very carefully.

所以，当财政部出来说要买国债，这种事不常发生，财政部长给美元兑日元封了顶。

So the fact that the treasury comes out and says they're going to buy treasury bonds, which doesn't happen much, the treasury secretary puts the top in dollar yen.

这也给美元对其他货币封了顶。

It also puts the top in the dollar against other currencies.

这非常重要，因为美元兑日元不是孤立交易的。

That's very important because the dollar yen doesn't trade in a vacuum.

美元还跟欧元交易。

The dollar also trades against the euro.

它跟英镑、加元等等交易。

It trades against the pound, the Canadian, etcetera, etcetera.

所以当美元兑日元受到强烈推动时，这种影响往往会传导到美元对其他货币的汇率上，但最明显的还是美元兑黄金的走势。

And so when a very strong push is made in the dollar yen, it often does filter through, against the dollar and other currencies, but it very specifically follows through in terms of the dollar against gold.

所以黄金几乎在同一时间触底了。

And so gold bottomed almost at the exact same time.

对吧？

Right?

而比特币那边，那些人肯定会想，这些老古董在货币和国债市场里搞什么呢？

And the Bitcoin, of course, they're like, what's going on in that fiat world with all those boomer old guys playing around in these currency and treasury markets?

哦，我觉得在干预和黄金上涨之后，你本可以在六万或六万五千美元左右买入比特币。

Oh, you could have bought Bitcoin, I think, at sixty thousand or sixty five thousand days after the intervention and after gold moved.

但那些加密货币的人会说，哦不，我们还在熊市里挣扎呢。

But the crypto guy's like, oh no, we're still mired in a bear phase.

如果你在Crypto X或Crypto Twitter上，或者现在叫别的什么名字，你会觉得世界末日要来了。

The world is coming to an end if you're on Crypto X or Crypto Twitter or however it's called now.

那种负面情绪简直难以置信。

And the negative sentiment was unbelievable.

如果你回看我之前的情况，我休息了几个月，因为我发帖的时候喜欢每天发一条。

And if you go back to my ex, I took a break for a few months because when I post, I like to post something every day.

我是个要么全做要么不做的人。

I'm very much an all or nothing kind of guy.

所以我要么每天发帖，尽量发点有意思的内容，要么就不发。

So I'm either going to post every day, make my best attempt at posting something interesting, or I'm not going to.

你知道，夏天有点冷清，比特币的波动性当然也降下来了。

And you know, the summer was a little bit of a lull, and the volatility in Bitcoin, of course, collapsed.

顺便说一句，谢谢你让我在这儿唠叨，我快说完了。

By the way, thank you for letting me drone on here because I'm almost done.

而且，你知道，你本来可以买比特币、以太坊什么的。

And, you know, you could have bought the Bitcoin and the ETH and everything.

如果你对老宏观世界的运作方式稍微有点了解，那简直就是白送的礼物，因为流动性，我。

It was a gift if you had been clued in a little bit to the way the old macro world works, because the liquidity, I.

就是说，美元，也就是老世界、非数字世界里存在的价值，当然比我们这个小型的加密区块链世界里的价值大1000倍。

E, the dollars, the value that sits in the old world, the non digital world, of course, is 1000x greater than what exists in our little world of crypto blockchain.

所以那就是信号。

So that was the sign.

而且你本来可以买很多比特币的。

And you could have bought a ton of Bitcoin.

我觉得那就是低点。

And I think that was the low.

我基本上直接说出来了，而且我一直在发图表，说这看起来像低点。

And I pretty much came out and said it, and I kept posting charts like, this looks like a low.

我没有说得太绝对。

I wasn't definitive.

我没有特别激动，但市场已经卖得很厉害了。

I wasn't jumping up and down about it, but the market was very sold out.

然后又有这些积极的催化剂。

And then you had these positive catalysts.

所以我现在不像以前那样积极交易了，但很明显。

And so I'm not actively trading the way I used to, but it clear.

当然，你提到了我的五号基金。

And of course, you mentioned my fund five.

在我们的五号基金里，这也是一个明确的信号，让我们加快收购私营公司。

In our fund five, it was a clear sign also for us to ramp up our buying of private companies.

我的意思是，你不会把比特币或黄金的日线或周线交易作为我们的信号。

I mean, you don't use the daily or weekly trading on the Bitcoin or gold as a signal for us.

但是，比如，不能因为要买入一家公司做十年投资，我就不能摘下我的宏观帽子。

But like, can't take to buy, you know, to make a ten year investment into a company, but I sort of can't take my macro hat off there.

所以，回答你的问题，我认为这个领域的低点已经出现了。

So the answer to your question is, think the low is in for the space.

这并不意味着我们不会稍微回调一下。

Doesn't mean we can't correct a little bit.

半导体、英特尔等等，它们跌了很多。

The semiconductors, Intel, etcetera, they're down a lot.

我昨晚看了一下，从几个月前的高点跌了超过50%。

I was looking last night, down over like 50% from a few months ago high.

我觉得美光跌得很厉害。

I think Micron was down a ton.

我猜底部就在前几天出现，现在这些股票就要开始反弹了。

My guess is that bottom happened a few days ago, and now those stocks are going to start going on a run.

所以那些担心股市、美联储加息、通胀，还有铜和油价涨得太猛的人，他们怕股市下跌，进而拖累我们这个行业。

So I think people who are worried about the stock market, about the Fed hike, about inflation, about copper and oil going up too much, they're worried that the stock market's going to go down, and then that is going to hit our space.

我就跟他们说，我们这个行业已经一路下跌差不多一年了，市值都缩水了一半。

I just say to them, our space has been going down, like straight down for like a year, and it's lost half its value.

好了，就说到这儿。

So that's enough.

财政部长也出来表态，给市场托底了。

And the treasury secretary came in and put a low in.

我觉得利率可能也快见顶了。

I think we're probably near the peak in interest rates as well.

市场可能会再试探一下，但我认为这没什么大不了的。

The market can test him a little bit, but I think it's a joke.

说实话，在我整个职业生涯里，你不可能找到比这更完美的财政部长和美联储理事的组合了。

I mean, honestly, in my whole life, you could not have hoped ever for a better treasury secretary in combination with a better Fed governor.

这简直就是黄金搭档。

I mean, that is like a dynamic duo.

所以每当有人读那些攻击他们政策或者各种杂七杂八的东西时，那些人根本什么都不懂。

So whenever you read something that's sort of attacking what they're doing or this and that, people just have no concept.

他们都是实干家。

These are practitioners.

博施后来也在德鲁克工作过，就在我离开杜肯之后。

And Borsch also worked for DRUC after I was there at Duquesne.

普通人根本不懂这些。

And people, civilians, just don't understand.

你每天管理宏观投资组合，还跟斯坦·德鲁肯米勒一起工作，你知道的，他和索罗斯当然是历史上最伟大的两位宏观投资者和交易员。

When you're managing a macro portfolio day to day and you're working with Stan Druckenmiller, you know, who along with Soros, of course, the two greatest macro investors, traders of all time.

我就纳闷了，像《华尔街日报》那种记者，或者随便一篇彭博的文章，怎么可能看衰这些人呢？

Like, how in the world does some like Wall Street Journal, you know, journalist, fading those guys or some silly Bloomberg article.

说真的，这简直就是个笑话。

I mean, it truly is comedy.

我们国家从来没有过这么好的货币和财政政策组合。

We have never had a better combination of managing monetary and fiscal policy in this country.

所以市场跌了很多，跌了50%。

So the market's down a ton, down 50%.

我们稍微反弹了一点。

We've had a little pop up.

如果市场在十月份回调的话，可能还会有点下跌。

And maybe we have a little dip if the market corrects into October kind of thing.

但你看市场涨到八万点，涨得多漂亮。

But look at how the market spiked up to 80,000 wonderfully.

现在却很难回落。

And now it's having a hard time coming in.

它好像根本就没在抛售。

It's like not selling off at all.

我的意思是，它确实交易得很好。

I mean, it really is trading well.

所以关于低点的问题，是的，我认为那已经确定了。

So the question about the low, yes, I think that's in.

对我们这个领域来说，需要注意的是，有很多像Hype和Zcash这样的东西一直在飙升，而且还没有出现大幅回调。

The caveat to it for our space is that there are many things like hype and like Zcash that have been on a tear and have not been in barefaces.

比如它们有过下跌。

Like they had dips.

但我的意思是，Hype从20一路直冲到80。

But I mean, hype has been a straight shot from 20 all the way up to 80.

所以，你知道，如果你看看其他指标，比如稳定币交易量或发行量，或者像我说的，DEX交易或永续合约、RWA永续合约的增长，那都是一路垂直向上，不断攀升。

So, you know, and if you look at, you know, other metrics like, you know, stablecoin trading volume or issuance or, as I said, the growth in, you know, DEX trading or perps, RWA perps, it's all been vertical and up and up and to the right.

所以我觉得你必须把你的问题分开来看，对吧，当你问“底部是否已经出现”的时候。

So I just think that you have to separate out your question, right, when you ask, like, is the bottom in or not?

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我是约翰。

This is John.

听好了。

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They had dozens of calls pay off in a big way for our community.

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If you wanna see how our entire team of analysts are positioning for the crypto bull market that's gonna come after this bear market finally ends, you can join us now at Milk Road PRO.

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Link is in the description.

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You'll get access to all of our analysts' trades, their watch list, and see how they're navigating this in their portfolios, and get access to ask us questions in Discord anytime day or night.

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It's just a dollar.

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Link's in the description.

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我们到时候见。

I'll see you there.

对。

Right.

嗯，我很欣赏你回答的深度和细致，以及围绕这一切的宏观视角。

Well, I appreciate the depth, the nuance there, and sort of the macro picture around all of this.

这里面有很多智慧，所以谢谢你的回答。

There's a lot of wisdom in that, so thank you for that answer.

我想问问关于50T基金的事情，特别是第五号基金。

I wanna ask about 50T Funds and particularly about Fund V.

50T以投资基础设施项目和高增长的数字资产领域而闻名。

50T is known making investments in infrastructure plays, growth equity in the digital asset space.

第五号基金也是这个方向吗，还是你现在看到了其他机会？

Is that where you're focused on for Fund V as well, or where are you seeing the opportunity right now for

这个基金？

this fund?

你知道，去年我们很幸运，在Circle和Derabit上实现了回报。

I mean, as you know, we were very fortunate last year, we had realizations in Circle and in Derabit.

Derabit被Coinbase收购了。

Derabit was purchased by Coinbase.

还有Figure、eToro。

Figure, eToro.

这些公司都是我们五年前买的，后来上市了，我们获得了多倍回报。

These are companies that we bought literally five years ago that had IPOs and we've made multiples return.

我们向现有LP返还了将近4亿美元。

And we returned almost $400,000,000 to our LPs in existing capital.

所以从DPI来看，也就是已返还资金占承诺资本的比例，我们的一号和二号基金已经返还了原始资本的40%。

So in terms of DPI, which is the percentage of committed capital that was returned, our Funds one and two have returned 40% of original capital.

这两只基金是2021年推出的。

Those are launched in 2021.

我们的三号基金稍微落后一点，因为它投资了元宇宙、区块链游戏和NFT。

Our fund three is lagging a little bit because it has an exposure to metaverse blockchain gaming and NFTs.

那部分我们只返还了20%的资金。

We've only returned 20% of the capital there.

我们的四号基金在24年完成募集，在很短的时间内毛回报率超过了250%，而且已经返还了30%的资金，这只基金还有八年半的时间。

And our fund four, which closed in '24, is up over 250% gross in a very short period of time and has returned 30% of its capital already with eight and a half years still remaining on that fund.

而24年的四号基金正好说明了在熊市期间买入股权能有多大的威力。

And the 'twenty four Fund, Fund IV, just shows you how powerful it can be to purchase equity during the bear phases.

当然，在熊市期间募资要难得多，因为我记得在23年，人们跟我说，哦，Sam Bankman Fried要进监狱了。

Of course, it's much harder to raise capital during the bear phases because I remember in 'twenty three, people were saying to me, oh, Sam Bankman Fried is going to jail.

他们当时都在看他的庭审。

They were watching his trial.

我就说，我们跟山姆·班克曼-弗里德一点关系都没有。

And I'm like, we have nothing to do with Sam Bankman Fried.

实际上，我们三次都拒绝了FTX。

In fact, we passed on FTX three times.

你知道，过去五六年里，我们拒绝了超过400个项目。

You know, we've passed on over 400 deals in the last five to six years.

但人们就是会恐慌。

But people get panicked.

所以，你知道，我们的第三只基金在2022年也是在市场绝对高点募集的，因为当时人们几乎都处于狂热状态。

And so, you know, our third fund in 2022 also was raised at the absolute peak of the market because people were nearly euphoric.

而我们能够忍住，在熊市期间投了一些资金。

And we were able to hold off and invest in some capital during the bear phase.

大约三分之一的资金是在熊市期间投出去的。

About one third of the capital was invested in the bear phase.

但因为这个原因，那个基金的表现就落后了。

But that fund is lagging as a result.

但我们投资了一些你知道的公司，我们认为它们在未来两三年内会上市。

But we've invested in names that you know that we think over the next two, three years will have IPOs.

Kraken是我们最大的投资。

Kraken is our largest investment.

Ledger也是我们一个非常大的投资。

Ledger is another very large one for us.

Animoca是我们非常喜欢的另一家公司。

Animoca, another company we really like.

还有Ledin、QuickNode。

Ledin, QuickNode.

这些都是更成熟、更发达的企业，至少成立五年，收入最少在5000万到1亿美元之间。

These are all more developed, more mature businesses, at least five years, companies making minimum sort of 50 to 100,000,000 in revenue.

而这从一开始就是我的专长。

And that's sort of been my niche from day one.

2019年我有了做基金的想法时，我从来没想过自己能做风险投资。

When I had the idea for the funds in 2019, I just never thought that I could do venture.

我当然也不想和Marc Andreessen、Polychain、Paradigm这些硅谷的大佬们竞争。

And I certainly didn't want to compete with Marc Andreessen and Polychain and Paradigm, all of these guys in Silicon Valley.

我不是那种背景出身的人。

I'm not from that background.

我也赢不了那些人。

And I'm not going to win against those guys.

他们非常厉害。

They are very adept.

而且他们的投资风格也很不一样，对吧？

And it's also a very different style of investment, right?

他们投的是还没被验证的公司。

They're investing companies that are not proven.

他们的回报可能更高，但这种投资风格我其实不太喜欢。

Their returns can be greater, But it's the style of investment that I'm not really so keen on.

就是，你知道，投十个项目，九个归零，然后希望有一个是谷歌，或者一个是CoreWeave，或者一个是OpenAI。

It's, you know, make 10 investments, nine go to zero, and then hopefully one is Google, or one is CoreWeave, or one is OpenAI.

我觉得这很棒，但那不是我们做的事。

Like, I think that's wonderful, but that's just not what we do.

我们的重点是，在十年的持有期内，让投资获得四到六倍的回报。

Our focus is to make four, five, 6x return over a ten year holding period in our investments.

所以我们承担的风险更小，回报预期也比那些追求百倍回报的风险投资基金更保守。

So we take less risk, and we also have more modest return expectations than the venture funds, which are trying to make 100x return.

所以让我惊讶的是，我进入这行差不多六年了，我们仍然是全球唯一一家专注于加密货币、区块链、数字资产和Web3这四个领域的成长股权基金。

And so what's surprising to me is I'm six years into this, just about, and we still are the only growth equity fund in the world exclusively focused on crypto, blockchain, digital assets, Web3, all those four things.

我们不做其他任何事。

We don't do anything else.

你知道，我们有一些比特币挖矿的敞口。

You know, we have some Bitcoin mining exposure.

我们对Bitfury的持仓相当可观。

We have a pretty significant position in Bitfury for us.

而Bitfury持有Cypher Mining 1.80%的股份，而Cypher Mining当然是数据中心建设的主要电力供应商之一。

And Bitfury owned at 1.80% of Cypher mining, which of course is one of the lead power providers to the data center build outs.

所以，通过Cypher——我们通过Bitfury还持有它的一部分——我们确实直接接触到了AI主题。

So, through Cypher, which we still own a chunk of through Bitfury, we do have exposure directly to the AI theme.

我还认为，我们现有的许多公司都已经以某种方式转向了AI。

I also think many of our existing companies have pivoted in one way to AI.

虽然目前还没有产生大量收入。

It's not generating a lot of revenue yet.

但是，我们很多公司，因为他们是一些最聪明的技术人才，拥有这么多开发者，而且他们不完全是软件公司，但比特币、以太坊以及建立在区块链上的应用，其实和软件公司有些沾边。

But also, many of our companies, since they are some of the smartest tech guys and they have so many developers, and they're not exactly software companies, but Bitcoin and ETH and the applications that are built on top of blockchains kind of are tangential to software companies.

所以，这些人正是那些使用AI到令人难以置信程度的人。

And so those guys are the ones that are using AI to sort of a mind boggling degree.

举个例子，我们的一家公司，十八个月前，其代码的10%是由AI代理编写的，而今天这个比例达到了100%。

And one of our companies, just as an example, eighteen months ago had 10% of its code written by agents, and today it's 100%.

所以，想想这些节省下来的成本，全都流向了利润底线。

So just think about the savings and all that flowing to the bottom line.

所以在前四只基金里，我们大概有，我想是14亿，可能再多一点，投了22家公司。

So in the first four funds, we've got about one point, I think it's 1.4, maybe a little more billion in 22 companies.

然后第五只基金，我们已经筹集了接近2亿美元。

And then Fund V, we've raised close to 200,000,000 already.

而且我们已经做了一些投资。

And we've already made some investments.

我们还没谈过这些投资。

We haven't talked about them.

它们还没完全敲定。

They haven't exactly finalized.

我投了4000万美元进一家知名公司。

I invested 40,000,000 into a well known company.

你会知道这家公司的名字。

You'll know the name.

这家公司年收入有好几亿美元。

It's a company doing hundreds of millions in revenue.

我们以一个合理的估值拿下了它。

We got it at a reasonable valuation.

这笔交易大概会在月底完成。

That deal probably closes at the end of the month.

另外我们还有两笔已经投了的交易。

And we have two other deals that we've invested in.

我们已经投了三笔，我觉得到年底还会有两笔。

We've already invested in three, and I think we'll have two more by the end of the year.

它们算是比较传统的。

And they are I would Traditional.

它们属于那种基础设施类的公司，就是卖铲子卖镐的那种。

They are sort of picks and shovels infrastructure companies.

我们不持有加密货币。

We don't own cryptocurrency.

我倒是很想持有那些热门的东西，但根据历史经验，我们觉得还是算了。

I would love to own hype, but we think that just historically, we have it.

而且我觉得，除非收入来源百分之百明确，

And I think that until there is absolute 100% clarity in terms of where revenue will accrue.

收入是归到代币上吗？

Does it accrue to the token?

还是归到股权上？

Does it accrue to an equity?

如果一家公司没有股权，只有代币，他们会不会某天突然决定发行股权？

If a company doesn't have equity and only a token, do they wake up one day and decide to issue equity?

这你没法知道。

You don't know.

我觉得炒作有点不一样，但确实还不明朗。

I think hype is a little bit of a different story, but it's just not clear.

我真的不想冒这个险。

And I really just don't want to take that risk.

而且你还有一笔炒作债务。

And you have a hype debt.

你可以投资各种各样的债务。

You have all sorts of debts that you can invest in.

我们不投资任何债务。

We don't invest in any debts.

我就是不太相信那个。

I just don't really believe in that.

我觉得微策略很棒。

Think micro strategy is great.

我觉得迈克尔·塞勒非常厉害。

I think Michael Saylor's phenomenal.

汤姆·李的DAT可能相当不错。

Tom Lee's DAT's probably pretty good.

他们持有以太坊5%的份额。

They own 5% of ETH.

但我们只投资运营中的企业。

But we only invest in operating businesses.

买比特币或以太坊，然后把它放进股票包装里，我觉得还行。

And buying Bitcoin or ETH and putting it into an equity wrapper, I think, okay.

如果你能围绕这个建立业务，那也可以。

If you can build a business around that's okay.

但我就是觉得这没那么有意思。

But I just don't really think it's that interesting.

我的意思是，你有一个比特币，它基本上会和比特币有100%的相关性。

I mean, you have a Bitcoin that's going to have 100% correlation, basically, with Bitcoin.

所以你不需要我来做这个，对吧？

So you don't need me to do that, right?

我们在找那些正在构建核心基础设施的公司，我们认为这些公司五年后还会存在，最终会上市。

We're finding companies that are building core infrastructure that we think will be around in five years that will eventually go public.

我们投资的公司市值大约在4亿到5亿美元，到15亿到20亿美元之间，因为我们喜欢在最多5到10倍营收的估值时投资。

And we're investing companies roughly 400 or $500,000,000 to $1,500,000,000 or 2,000,000,000 in value because we like to invest at around five to 10 times revenue at the most.

你知道，如果可以的话，5倍营收。

You know, if we can, five times revs.

我们最好的投资都是在营收的两到五倍时进入的。

All of our best investments were things we invested at between two and five times revenue.

比如我们买Kraken的时候，估值是30亿美元，营收倍数只有2.5倍。

I mean, we bought Kraken at two and a half times revenue at $3,000,000,000 valuation.

现在我觉得已经超过20倍了。

And I think now it's north of 20.

所以进入的时机非常重要。

So it's very important where you get in.

对于第五期基金，我觉得现在是个绝佳时机。

And for Fund V, now I think it's a wonderful time.

我们在定价交易和投资成长期公司方面，竞争并不激烈。

We don't really have that much competition in pricing deals and in investing in growth stage companies.

做这事的人不多，而且价格还算合理。

There just aren't that many people, and the prices are still, you know, reasonable.

回答得很好，Dan。

Great answer, Dan.

我想问的很多问题你都已经回答了。

I I I wanna ask you covered a lot of questions that I had there.

丹，你在这里提了一个很好的话题，我真的很想听听你更多的想法，就是关于代币和股权的这个理念。

Dan, you you brought up a a great subject in here, which I I really was curious to get more thoughts from you on, which is this notion of token versus equity.

我们看到加密领域有很多项目试图让他们的价值更多地与代币挂钩，并试图把代币当作股权来对待。

And we've seen a lot of projects in the crypto space trying to align their value more with their token and try to treat their token more like their equity.

你能跟我聊聊你看到的这方面的演变吗？以及你如何评估什么时候你可能会真正开始对代币感兴趣，而不是股权，或者两者都感兴趣，或者，嗯，就是这样。

Could you talk to me about what you're seeing in terms of the evolution there and, you know, how you're evaluating when you might actually start being interested in tokens as opposed to equity or or both or just yeah.

你在那个领域看到了什么正在发生的事情？

What what are you seeing in that space happening?

说实话，我觉得这挺复杂的，目前得具体问题具体分析。

Honestly, I think it it's pretty complicated, and it's case by case at the moment.

所以，你知道，我们还没有明确的答案。

So, you know, we don't have clarity.

幸好有天才存在。

Thank goodness for genius.

这对稳定币来说很棒。

That was great for stables.

但我认为结果可能有两种。

But I think it could go either way.

你必须真正了解创始人，相信他们对自己选择的承诺。

You have to really know the founder, believe in their commitment to one or the other.

还有一些股权公司说，看，我们永远不会发行代币。

You also have equity businesses that say, look, we're just never going to launch a token.

然后，好吧，那也没问题。

And then, okay, that's fine.

我的意思是，说实话，如果我们能对他们会说到做到建立一些信心，我们对代币还是股权其实无所谓。

I mean, I think honestly, we would be agnostic to the token versus equity if we could just develop some confidence around, you know, they're going to do what they're going to say.

我们这一行的问题在于，这既是好事也是坏事。

And the problem with our space been really that it's a good and a bad thing.

我的意思是，这个领域充斥着各种欺诈，还有各种不靠谱的人参与其中。

I mean, it's been mired with all sorts of frauds, and there are all kinds of dicey people involved.

我觉得Tomo Bravo是在21年之后才出来的。

I mean, I think Tomo Bravo came out after '21.

他很不幸卷入了FTX，然后他们就退出了这个领域。

I think he unfortunately was in FTX, and they just vacated the space.

我觉得其他传统的成长型股权科技投资者不会碰加密货币，因为你知道，这个领域问题不断，欺诈、黑客攻击什么的都有。

I think other traditional growth equity tech investors won't touch crypto because, you know, it's been littered with problems and fraud and hacks and all of this stuff.

而且这些人更年轻，这一切都是新的。

And the people are much younger and this is all new.

而且很多时候，他们其实不太懂怎么管理一家公司。

And often they don't really know how to manage a business on top of that.

所以我想说的是，这对像我这样的人来说其实是好事，因为它给我们的业务建立了一道护城河。

So what I'm saying is that I think that's wonderful for people like me because it creates a moat around our business.

就像我提到的Tomer Bravo，还有Silver Lake、Tiger、CO2、加拿大养老金体系，这些大型投资者都撤了，而且还没回来。

So guys like I mentioned, Tomer Bravo, but also Silver Lake, Tiger, CO2, the Canadian pension fund system, these very large investors, they've all moved out and they're not back.

所以这给我们留下了更多的机会。

So that leaves more opportunity for us.

但另一方面，我们也想有更高的可信度，对吧？

But on the other hand, like we want to have a higher degree of credibility, right?

我们希望这个领域里有正直的人，说到做到。

We want to have upstanding guys in the space who do what they say they're going to do.

我们每周都会遇到这种情况。

And we deal with it every week.

有些创始人告诉我们一些事情。

Some founder tells us something.

但事实并非如此。

It's not true.

真的，完全不是真的。

Literally, not true.

或者他改变了主意。

Or he changes his mind.

我遇到过一位创始人，我们差点就达成协议了。

I I had one founder, we were close to a deal.