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你看，市场不一定会因为已经反映在价格里的因素而波动或反应，但它确实会对那些没有反映在价格里的事件做出反应。
See, the market doesn't necessarily move or react to things that are priced in, but it does move or react to things that happen that aren't priced in.
大家好，最近怎么样？
What's up, everybody?
这里是LG Newsat，欢迎来到Milk Road Show，这个每日加密货币节目问比特币底部问了太多次，以至于我觉得我们可能真的错过了它。
It's LG Newsat here, and welcome to the Milk Road Show, the daily crypto show that asked about the Bitcoin bottom so many times that I think we actually missed it.
今天是2026年8月24日。
Today is 08/24/2026.
一周的时间，变化可真大。
What a difference a week makes.
就在七天前，我还问了约翰一模一样的问题。
Just seven days ago, I was asking John the exact same questions.
我每个星期一都问他，差不多有六个月了。
I've been asking him every Monday for, like, six months.
加密货币到底什么时候才能见底？
When the hell is crypto going to bottom?
看起来确实是这样，我们都没注意到。
And it kinda looks like it did without us noticing.
各位，我们涨了。
We are up, ladies and gentlemen.
虽然离历史高点还远，但事实证明约翰的核心投资理念是对的。
And although we are nowhere near all time highs, it turns out that John's core investing philosophy has held true.
在恐惧时买入，任何价格都是好交易。
Buying fear is a good deal at any price.
他总是这么说。
He always says that.
如果你是新来的，我们每周一都会坐下来，把话筒交给这位业内最棒的加密播客主持人，听听他对市场、宏观以及他的投资组合配置的看法。
If you're new here, every Monday, we sit down to flip the mic on the best crypto podcast host in the game to ask him his thoughts on the market, the macro, and, of course, his portfolio allocation.
虽然今天可能感觉像在庆祝胜利，但当前的价格走势给我们带来的问题比答案还多，我们会在今天的节目里深入探讨。
And although today might feel like a victory lap, the current price action has left us with more questions than answers, and we'll dive into them on today's episode.
别忘了，你每天都可以直接和约翰交流，甚至可以在Milk Road Pro里看到他的投资组合。
And don't forget, you can talk to John directly every single day and even see his portfolio in Milk Road Pro.
过去一年，我们的高级产品增长非常快。
Our premium product has grown enormously this past year.
这要感谢约翰和其他四位分析师。
Thanks to John and our other four analysts.
但不幸的是，这意味着我们不得不在两天后涨价，从每月25美元涨到39美元，涨幅达60%。
And unfortunately, it means we're gonna have to raise prices in just two days time for $25 to $39 a month, a 60% increase.
所以如果你想以这个价格，这个历史价格锁定，你可以永远锁定它。
So if you wanna get this price, this historical price, you lock it in forever.
你到明天午夜之前都有机会。
You have until tomorrow at midnight.
点击下面的链接就可以查看。
Just click the link below to check it out.
另外提醒一下，我们今天的播客是免费的，这离不开我们的合作伙伴Saber的支持。
And a reminder that our podcast today is free and that it wouldn't be possible without our partners at Saber.
Saber，一个专为亚洲打造的稳定币支付平台。
Money, the stablecoin payments platform built for Asia.
稍后节目中会有更多关于他们的信息，大家留意听。
Keep an ear out for more information about them later in the show.
天哪，我已经说了两分钟了。
God, I've been talking for two minutes.
没人想听我说话。
Nobody wants to hear from me.
大家想听的是约翰的胜利感言。
People want people want the victory lap from John.
不过，你有没有说过“我早就告诉过你”？
Although, did you say I told you so?
我不知道。
I don't know.
我觉得这不算太大的变动，约翰。
I don't think that has been too too much of a violent move, John.
我其实不太喜欢炫耀胜利。
I don't really do victory lap.
抱歉。
Sorry.
我跟你说过吧。
I told you so.
我对目前的价格走势很满意。
I'm happy with the price action we've seen.
我是说，你看。
I mean, look.
我写了很多关于这个的内容。
I wrote a lot about it.
其实，这就是我写那篇文章的主要原因。
I mean, this is a big reason why I wrote the essay.
对吧？
Right?
因为大家都冲着涨势和价格波动来的，还有那些带来的关注。
Was because everybody comes for the pumps and the price action and, like, all the attention that that brings.
但我写那篇文章的重点是想说，嘿。
But the point of writing the essay was to say, hey.
以太坊和整个加密领域有一个更大的潜在主题，别只盯着涨幅的数字而错过了它。
There is a much bigger underlying thesis happening on Ethereum and in crypto overall, and don't miss that just looking at the numbers in the pump.
所以，是的，我对价格走势很满意，但对我来说，那只是主故事的一个注脚，这才是我写文章的原因。
So, yeah, like, I'm happy with the price action, but to me, that's the that's like a a footnote to the main story, which is why I wrote.
嗯。
Mhmm.
嗯。
Mhmm.
嗯。
Mhmm.
约翰，我们节目的时机真是太巧了，因为，你知道，我觉得从三月开始，我不知道我们什么时候开始一起做这些周一的节目，但我们一起讨论过发生的所有事情。
John, like like, we it's amazing the timing of our shows because, you know, again, I feel like since, like, March I don't know when we started doing these Monday episodes together, but we've talked through everything that's happened.
你知道，感觉我们真的手牵手走过了伊朗战争，还有那场还在持续的《清晰法案》的起起落落。
You know, it feels like we we've really we've really held hands through, the Iran war, and through the and it's still going on through the clarity act up and down.
上周感觉有些能量在酝酿，但很难说那是什么信号。
And it felt like last week, there was some there was some energy brewing, but it it was kinda hard to call that any kind of signal.
但然后，你周三醒来，癌症好像被治愈了，而在这之下，特朗普说了‘超级流动性’。
But then, you know, you wake up Wednesday, and cancer's been cured apparently, which and then and then hidden below that was Trump saying hyper liquid.
对吧？
Right?
现在那几乎感觉像是旧闻了，因为那只是上涨。
And now that almost feels like old news because, you know, that was only a pump.
我们可能看到比特币那天从6万4涨到6万9。
We maybe we saw Bitcoin go to, 6 from 64 to 69 in that day.
现在我们到了7万9，正试图突破8万，天哪。
Now we're at 79 trying to break on 80, man.
这是不是我们之前讨论所有累积波动时预期的那种剧烈波动？
Is this is this the kind of violent swing we expected when we were talking about all that volatility being built up?
对吧？
Right?
我们不仅聊过这个，你还和节目里的很多嘉宾讨论过。
Not only did we talk about that, you talked about that with a lot of the guests on the show.
好的。
Okay.
那么我来稍微分析一下我之前看到的这个局面的形成，以及是什么触发了它。
So I'm gonna break down a little bit of what I was seeing set up for this and and what triggered it.
但我很久以来一直在向我们的专业社区发出提醒，嘿。
But I was flagging to our pro community for a long time, hey.
比特币的波动性处于历史低位。
Bitcoin's volatility is at historically low levels.
在比特币94%的历史时间里，它的波动性都比我们看到的这次逼空之前要高。
It 94% of Bitcoin's history, it had been trading with more volatility than it was prior to this short squeeze that we saw.
所以波动性已经降到了比特币历史上任何水平之下的极低点。
So the volatility had dropped, like, well, well below anything, like, in Bitcoin's history.
那是一种极端的、死寂般的价格走势。
It was an extreme amount of of just dead price action.
成交量非常低，关注度非常低，活跃度也非常低。
There was very little volume, very little attention, very little activity.
与此同时，未平仓合约一直在攀升。
At the same time, open interest had been climbing.
换句话说，有更多资金在押注价格会进一步下跌。
In other words, there was more capital speculating basically on more downside.
这跟10月10日的情况类似，但方向相反。
This is a, like, a similar but inverse thing to what happened on October 10.
当时未平仓合约很多，成交量却在下降，但大家都在押注会有一波上涨行情，价格会冲到150以上，甚至更高。
There was a ton of open interest and dropping volume, but everybody was betting that there was gonna be this squeeze higher that we were gonna go to over a 150, maybe beyond that.
所以这次的情况是，波动率下降，成交量下降，大量投机资金涌入，然后出现了这些外部冲击。
And so what happened in this situation was volatility dropped, volume dropped, a lot of speculation came in, and then there were these exogenous shocks.
你看，市场不一定会对已经被定价的事情做出反应，但会对那些没有被定价的突发事件做出反应。
See, the market doesn't necessarily move or react to things that are priced in, but it does move or react to things that happen that aren't priced in.
所以，现在市场很大程度上是在押注《清晰法案》不会通过。
So, like, the market right now is very much betting against the Clarity Act passing.
如果它真的通过了，那可能又是一个重大的看涨催化剂，因为市场已经押注它会失败。
If it does pass, that could be another major bullish catalyst because the market is positioned for it to fail.
市场并没有预料到斯科特·贝森会站出来说，我要通过增加长期资产的回购来缩短国债曲线的久期，你知道的，就是发行短期债券，回购长期债券的那个回购计划。
The market was not positioned for Scott Besson to come out and say, I'm gonna start shortening the duration of the treasury's curve by doing increased buybacks of long duration assets and and, you know, the repurchase program of issuing shorter duration, buying back longer duration.
而且也没人准备好特朗普会在白宫走到麦克风前说“超级流动性”。
And then nobody was prepared for Trump to step up to a microphone in the White House and say hyper liquid.
所以这一切就造成了这样一种局面：在大量空头头寸存在的时候，突然出现了对这些资产未来升值的关注和投机催化剂。
So all of this created this situation where there's this sudden catalyst of attention and speculation on the future appreciation of these assets at a time when there was a huge amount of shorts in place.
然后我们就看到了，我记得是超过40亿美元的清算。
And so we saw, I think it was over $4,000,000,000 of liquidation.
比特币历史上最大的单周K线美元变动，几天之内加密货币总市值增加了1万亿美元。
Largest single dollar move in for a weekly candle in Bitcoin's history, $1,000,000,000,000 of market cap added to the crypto market cap overall in a matter of a couple of days.
而最重要的是，LG。
And this is the biggest thing, LG.
价格走势稳住了。
The price action is holding.
我们并没有立刻又跌回去。
We haven't, like, cratered back down immediately.
换句话说，卖家没有进场抛售他们的持仓。
In other words, sellers did not step in to dump their bags.
实际上我们看到现货交易量在增加，支撑着这个走势，无论是在ETF、现货市场，还是比特币、以太坊以及其他所有资产上。
We've seen actually spot volumes pick up and increase to support this across ETFs, across the the the spot volume markets, on Bitcoin, on Ethereum, on everything else.
所以看起来这次行情，你知道的，空头被狠狠打击了。
So it seems like this move is you know, the shorts just got wrecked.
看空的人被彻底碾压，而且这个走势似乎还在持续。
Bears just got slaughtered, and it it seems to be holding.
我不确定接下来会怎么走。
I'm not sure where we go from here.
就像你说的，我们正在测试8万这个阻力位。
Like you said, we're testing this 80 k resistance level.
那里有巨大的卖单墙，是某些市场参与者获利了结造成的，但目前还不清楚我们会不会突破它，还是会回落。
There's a huge sell wall there from from certain players in the market taking profits, but it's not clear yet if we'll we'll, you know, break that or or come down.
我觉得不管怎样，你都在关注接下来会发生什么。
I I think either way, you're looking for what happens next from here.
你要看82、83能不能变成支撑位，因为那样的话，我们就站上了牛市支撑带。
You're looking for a flip of 82, 83 into support because that would put us over the bull market support band.
那就意味着比特币技术上进入牛市了，或者你在等一个更高的低点。
That would put us into a technical bull market on Bitcoin, or you're looking for a higher low.
也就是说，如果我们在8万被拒绝然后回落，我们希望看到多头在7万4、7万1，或者7万附近进场支撑，然后我们再回撤整个涨幅，那样就能确认上涨趋势了。
Meaning, if we get rejected at 80 k and come down, we wanna see bulls step in and support at 74 k, at 71 k, somewhere in there 70 k before we go back and retrace the whole move, and then that would be confirmation of a bullish uptrend.
我觉得这对比特币来说是看涨的。
I And think that's bullish for Bitcoin here.
但是，是的，这绝对是前所未有的价格走势。
But, yeah, just absolutely unprecedented price action.
这源于一个事实，而且我在这个频道、这些节目里已经说了好几个月了。
And it's it's comes from the fact that everybody and I've been saying this on this channel, on these episodes for months.
这个资产类别，加密货币资产类别，一直是关注度最低、理解度最低、资本投机和投资活动最少的，而且它早就准备好迎接这样的大行情了。
This asset class crypto asset class has been the least the the one that's gotten the least attention, the least amount of comprehension, and the least amount of capital speculation and investment activity of any kind, and it's been poised for a major move like this for a long time.
我们早就一直在喊这个，都有点觉得可能要到十月才会发生。
And we've been calling for that for so long, we kinda just, like, thought it was never gonna happen until October.
但市场就是这样。
And that's what the market does.
它总是让所有人措手不及，所以你就看到了这波暴涨。
It catches everybody by surprise, and that's how you've seen this massive pump up.
所以，是的，现在真的是加密货币领域非常激动人心的时刻。
So, yeah, it's just it's a really exciting time to be in crypto.
之前也是这样。
It has been before this.
之后也会是这样。
It will be after this.
但，是的，这次的价格走势确实具有历史意义，能亲眼见证这样的市场事件真是太不可思议了。
But, yeah, this price action is really historic, and it's just an incredible market event to witness happen in real time.
如果你还不是Milk Road Pro的会员，现在就是时候了。
If you are not already a Milk Road Pro member, now is the time.
8月26号，Milk Road Pro的价格要上涨了。
On August 26, the price of Milk Road Pro is going up.
月付从每月25美元涨到39美元，年付从250美元涨到299美元。
Monthly goes from $25 a month to $39 a month, and annual goes from 250 to $2.99.
原因如下。
And here's why.
以前Milk Road Pro只是一个付费通讯和一个投资组合。
Milk Road Pro used to just be one paid newsletter and one portfolio.
现在它是一个完整的平台。
Now it is a complete platform.
有独家分析，还有五位分析师组成的完整团队，每位都有自己的投资组合、自己的研究、自己的交易，你可以实时获取所有内容。
There's proprietary analysis and a full panel of five analysts each with their own portfolio, their own research, their own trades, and you get full access to it in real time.
这里会有你需要的所有信息和通知，让你随时了解他们的研究和市场动向。
This is gonna have all the information and notifications you need to stay up to date, up to the minute with their research and with their moves in the market.
结果非常惊人。
And the results have been insane.
梅尔文的投资组合二月份才刚推出。
Melvin's portfolio alone launched in February.
从那以后，涨幅已经超过了45%。
It's up over 45% since.
如果你当时跟着他的操作投了10美元，现在你已经赚了超过4美元了。
If you'd put $10 in behind his moves, you'd be sitting on over $4 of gains today.
那五个月的Milk Road Pro会员费只要125美元。
Five months of Milk Road Pro cost just a $125 over that same period of time.
这笔投资的回报率不言而喻。
The ROI on that investment speaks for itself.
如果你在8月25日午夜前加入，就能一直锁定现在的价格，只要你是会员就有效。我们也希望你一直留下来，因为我们很珍惜我们的社区。
If you join before midnight on August 25, you keep today's prices locked in for as long as you are a member, and we hope you will stay a member because we love our community.
但就这一次机会。
But that's it.
过了这个时间，就没了。
After that, it's gone.
所以今天就加入吧。
So get in on this today.
锁定Milk Road Pro的这个价格。
Lock in this price on Milk Road Pro.
链接在描述里。
Link is in the description.
我们到时候见。
I'll see you there.
这就是底部了。
It is the bottom in.
我们是不是在六月底或七月二号那天触底了？我记得好像是。
Was the did we did we touch that bottom whatever day it was in, like, late June or July 2, I think it was.
我不知道具体是哪一天。
I don't know what day it was.
对。
Yeah.
差不多就在那附近吧。
Some something around there.
我觉得我们五月份的时候跌到了58。
I think it was we hit 58 in May.
二月份的时候我们突破了60，刚好过了60。
We hit 60, just barely through 60 in February.
所以现在要讨论的就是这个。
So this is the debate that's gonna happen now.
如果底部已经确认了，但我们还没确认这一点。
If the bottom is in we haven't confirmed that yet.
说实话，我们就是需要更多时间，更多价格走势来观察。
Honestly, we just need more time, more price action.
我没有水晶球，但我要告诉你的是，如果我们没有创出新低，而且看起来就是这样的话。
I don't have a crystal ball, but what I'm telling you is that if if we don't make a a new lower low here and that's it seems to be what's happening.
你要看的指标就是，这个能不能撑住？
The the the indicator you would look at to see is this gonna hold?
要关注的指标是，现货成交量是否正在进场，来承接并支撑这次回调？
The indicator to watch is is spot volume coming in to pick up and and buy this and support this dip?
目前来看，是的。
Right now, it is.
目前来看，这个买盘还在撑着。
Right now, that bid is holding.
但这可能不会一直持续下去。
That may not last forever.
市场可能会转向。
That market may turn.
我不确定这个支撑能不能守住。
I don't know if that's gonna hold.
我们可能会看到，你知道，看涨趋势再持续一段时间，也可能在九月、十月再出现一次回调。
We may see, you know, a bullish trend continue for a while, and we might see another dip in September, October.
谁知道呢？
Who knows?
对吧？
Right?
我也没法给你打包票。
I can't tell you for sure.
不过，如果这个真的能撑住，那变化可就大了，因为这意味着底部已经出现了，我们已经过了最低点。
However, if this does hold, that's a huge change because that means that the bottom is in, the bottom is behind us.
五月份的那个低点，我记得是，那就只是对二月份那个初始低点的一次回踩确认。
The the bottom in May, I believe it was, would then just be a retest of the initial bottom that was put in in February.
所以你可以说比特币——我是说，虽然大家可能不这么认为，但你可以论证比特币在二月份就已经见底了。
So you could argue Bitcoin I mean, people won't, but you could make an argument that Bitcoin bottomed in February.
那对市场之前的预期来说，可就是一个巨大的转变了。
And that would be a huge change to what the market had been expecting.
四年周期理论就得重新评估了。
The four year cycle theory gets reevaluated.
还有像鲍勃·卢卡斯，他是四年周期理论最早的倡导者之一，他本来在度假，都从海滩上跑回来查看市场，因为比特币的市场结构变化太大了。
There's a whole like, Bob Lucas, who's the guy who was, like, one of the original, like, proponents of the four year cycle thesis, came in off the beach on his vacation to check the markets because of how much this changed market structure for Bitcoin here.
这根K线真是巨大无比。
This is a huge, huge candle.
所以，再说一遍，这些都还没有得到确认。
So, again, none of this is confirmed.
我们是在边看边学，这也是我一直想对观众说的话。
We're watching to learn here, and this is something I've been trying to say to our audience this whole time.
我每期节目结尾都会说：保持安全，保持学习，保持相对稳定。
I end every episode with stay safe, stay educated, and stable ish.
你投入的是资金，但也是在投资自己的教育。
You invest with your capital, but you also invest in your education.
这个周期里，加密货币的表现和以往周期大不相同。
This cycle, crypto has behaved much differently than prior cycles.
这里有一个巨大的机会，去学习、去理解、去从市场持续给我们的信息中汲取经验。
There's a huge opportunity here for education, for understanding, for learning from the information the market is continuing to give us.
这能帮你更新投资理念，让你成为更聪明的投资者，并且在未来的周期、未来的投资环境中，无论你身处这个资产类别还是其他领域，都会受益，因为你会更明白是什么在驱动这些动态、驱动市场行为，以及你该如何相应地配置你的资金。
That helps update your investment thesis, helps make you a smarter investor, and will pay off in future cycles, future investing environments that you find yourself into in this asset class and others because you'll understand more of what drives these dynamics, what drives market behavior, and how you wanna position your capital accordingly.
所以现在是投资教育的好时机，也是关注市场信息的好时机，因为市场让所有人都感到意外，连专家也不例外，而且没有人见过这样的情况。
So this is a great time to be investing in education and just paying attention to the information we're getting from the market because it's surprising everybody, even the experts, and and nobody has seen anything like
以前从未有过。
this before.
约翰，现在也是听Milk Road的好时机。
And it's a good time to be listening to Milk Road too, John.
播客在约翰的带领下火起来了，所以要大力感谢你。
Podcast is popping off with John John at the helm, so big shout out to you.
你接手了。
You took over.
听我说。
Listen.
我就是要特别提一下这部分。
I just I just need to shout out this part.
好的。
Okay.
我有几句话想说，也有几个问题想问你。
Few I have a few things to say and a few things to ask you.
我今天有很多话想说，也有很多问题要问。
Have a lot I have a lot to say today and and to ask.
首先，关于触底的问题，从现在的价格79,400，回到最低点，也就是7月1日那天，我们几乎跌破57,000，那需要再跌27%。考虑到10点10分之后短时间内发生的情况，这看起来其实不算太多。
First of all, just to talk about bottoming, from the price right now, which is 79,400, to go back to the lowest low, which was July 1, where we put in almost almost broke below 57, we would need to drop another 27%, which does not seem like a lot in a sense compare considering what happened after 10:10 in a short amount of time.
所以这不是不可能的。
So it's not impossible.
话虽如此，但看起来确实不太可能。
That being said, it does seem unlikely.
我知道你最喜欢的分析师之一，Ben Cowan，昨天发推说底部可能已经出现了，而他就是那个说等等的人。
And I know one of your favorites, Ben Cowan, yesterday, you know, tweeted about how the bottom may have been in, and he was the one saying, like, wait.
等等。
Wait.
等到我们看到再说。
Wait until until we see it.
关于这一点，再说一下，这只是我作为散户的观察。
On that and, again, this is just my my my retail brain observing here.
历史上九月份行情通常比较弱。
September is historically weak.
大家总是这么说。
People always say that.
尤其是我们这个月还剩七天。
People especially we're we have seven days left this month.
大家总喜欢说九月行情弱。
People always like to say September is weak.
这是中期选举年，等等等等。
It's a midterm year, blah blah blah.
所以有这么多因素。
So there's all these factors.
所以肯定要观望一下。
So it's definitely a wait and see.
在加密货币领域，我学到的是，它涨起来的速度和跌下去的速度一样快。
And what I've learned in crypto is that it can go up just as quickly as it can go down.
所以我很谨慎。
So I'm cautious.
我确实想问你一下，接下来你的策略是什么，因为你手里还握着一大笔现金，在你的Milk Road Pro投资组合里。
I do wanna ask you in a minute about what the strategy is from here because you are still sitting on a big pile of cash in your your Milk Road Pro portfolio.
我每周都会问你，你打算什么时候把这笔钱投出去，是买更多的ETH、比特币，还是投到山寨币上。
And I'd ask you every week about when are you gonna deploy that, right, into more ETH or Bitcoin or into alts.
对吧？
Right?
我觉得你可能和我以及很多听众一样，都在想，我是不是错过了这些资产的历史低点入场机会？
And and I feel like you're probably in the same boat as as maybe me and a lot of other people listening is like, did I miss my chance to get in a historical lows for these things?
这是接下来几周每个人都需要面对的大问题。
And that's that's a big question for everybody to tackle in the next couple weeks.
不过在我们进入正题之前，我还有一件搞笑的事要说，就是一个半月前，两个月前，我们开玩笑说我是播客的顶级信号。
I have one more joke thing thing to say though before we get to real questions is that a month and a half ago, two months ago, we we joked about how I am the top signal for a podcast.
你们这些听了好几年节目的人可能还记得，以前有个完全不同的人来开场主持这个节目。
And as you guys who've been listening to the show for years may recall, there's a completely different person used to start who started the show and used to host it.
他现在还在。
He's still around.
他还是我们的老板，杰伊·汉密尔顿。
He's still our boss, Jay Hamilton.
而且，你知道，他带着这个播客走过了上一个牛市。
And and, you know, he led this podcast through the last bull.
然后我们决定来个角色互换。
And then we decided to do a little switcheroo.
我算是从Milk Road DJN那边过来，加入了这个节目，然后我和约翰开始分担主持工作，大部分时间由我来主持，从十月的第一周开始，就在10月10号前几天。
I kinda came in off Milk Road DJN and came into this, and and John and I started splitting hosting duties with me doing the bulk of it, starting literally the first week of October, days before 10:10.
然后我就成了你们熊市里的伙伴。
And then I I was your I was your bear market buddy.
你知道吗？
You know?
我们决定在六月底把我们的AI股票播客改成全职。
And we decided to make our AI stocks podcast full time late June.
所以六月底，我记得大概是6月26号，那是我在这里主持的最后一期节目，除了跟你一起做的这些周一节目。
So the end of June, think it was, like, June 26 is was my last show that I hosted here other than these Monday shows with you.
然后大家又会问，为什么LG还在说话？
And, again, people are like, why is LG still talking?
那是我跟你一起主持的最后一期节目。
Was the last show I hosted with you.
哦，不。
And oh, no.
我还是会跟你一起主持节目，但那是我为这个节目做的最后一次采访。
I still host shows with you, but it was the last interview I did for the show.
到目前为止，那次采访是美光科技的最高点，也是比特币接近底部的时候。
And that was so far, that has been the top on Micron and all and a couple days off the bottom for Bitcoin.
所以，一旦我成为某个节目或行业的主持人，大家最好远离那个行业或领域。
So when I become the host of a show, run away from that industry or sector.
对吧？
Okay?
所以我会继续关注AI股票，趁它们下跌的时候买入。
So I'm gonna I'm gonna ride I'm gonna ride AI stocks here as they dip.
今天它们看起来糟透了。
They look terrible today.
我会坚持一段时间。
I'll be on that for a while.
然后我肯定我们会开一个新的播客，由我来主持。
And then I'm sure we'll start a new podcast that I'll be at the helm.
不管是什么，比如宝可梦卡牌，我也不知道，反正你们赶紧跑。
And whatever that is, Pokemon cards, I don't know what, just run away.
谢谢你的牺牲，LG。
Thank you for your sacrifice, LG.
这就是我的风格。
It's it's it's what I do.
你知道吗？
You know?
这就像先发投手在第一局就爆了，然后我上场，我就是那个在中段吃局数的投手。
I'm like it's like when you're when you're when your starter blows up, you know, in the first inning or whatever, and then I come in, you know, and I'm just the innings eater in the middle.
然后我们追平比分，再换上终结者，也就是你，来赢下比赛。
And then and then we and then the team catches up, and then we bring in a closer, which is you to actually win the game.
你懂吧？
You know?
所以我就是那个救火队员。
So I'm just the I'm just the emergency guy.
我想回到你之前问的那个关于现金怎么处理的问题。
I wanna go back to your question about what to do with cash.
对吧？
You Right?
你确实持有相当大一笔现金仓位。
You do have a pretty sizable cash position.
我觉得我们社区里很多成员都在问我关于这个问题的事情。
I think a lot of members of our community are asking me questions about this.
顺便说一句，我现在被各种问题轰炸了。
By the way, I'm getting peppered with questions now.
Discord上消息都刷屏了。
The Discord is lighting up.
我刚回答一个问题。
I I answer one question.
马上就有别人跟进提问。
I get a follow-up immediately from someone else.
每当我发布一些东西，比如关于价格走势的研究更新，我尽量频繁更新，因为波动很大。
Whenever I post something, like a research note update about the price action, I'm trying to do that, like, pretty often here because it's moving a lot.
随着事情的发展，大家都想知道发生了什么。
And as as things unfold, people wanna know what what's going on.
但我每次发东西，都会收到五六个不同的评论。
But every time I post something, I'm getting, like, five or six different comments.
所以我正在尽可能快、尽可能频繁地回复，尽量跟上社区的节奏，因为现在山寨币市场太疯狂了，发生了太多事情。
So I'm going through as fast as I can and as often as I can to try to stay up with the community on this because there's so much happening in the alt space is going crazy.
不过好吧。
But okay.
所以关于我的现金仓位，我在比特币和以太坊上的持仓非常集中。
So what I'm thinking with my cash position, I I have a really large concentration in Bitcoin and Ethereum.
顺便说一句，这一点很重要，我要再说一遍。
And by the way, I'll say this again because this is important too.
在遇到这种情况之前，如果你已经建好了仓位，那会很有帮助。
Before you get into the situation like this, it helps if you've already accumulated your positions.
这样当行情这样波动时，你就不会措手不及。
You're not caught offsides when a move like this happens.
你需要已经在市场里并持有资产，而持有处于熊市的资产是有机会成本的。
You need to be in the market and holding, and there's an opportunity cost for holding an asset that's in a bear market.
但你的回报来自于当那个资产脱离熊市时，你能抓住那波行情，这就是你得到的补偿。
But the way you get paid off is when that asset rips out of its bear market, you catch all of that move, and that's the compensation that you get for that.
所以我总是在比特币极度恐慌的时候买入。
So I always buy when there's extreme fear on Bitcoin.
我喜欢说，在恐慌时买入，无论什么价格都是好交易，因为如果你长期看好这个资产，就像我看好比特币和以太坊一样，那么，好吧，今天大家都在恐慌性抛售。
I like to say buying fear is a good deal at any price because if you believe in the asset long term, which I do on Bitcoin and Ethereum, then, okay, everybody's panic selling today.
我知道它可能还会跌更多，我必须意识到这一点，并且接受这一点。
I know that it might dip more, and I have to be aware of that and okay with that.
但我就是一路下跌一路买，突然在回升的时候我就看起来像个天才，而且总有一天会回升的。
But I just keep buying on the way down, suddenly I look like a genius on the way back up, and there will be a way back up at some point.
对吧？
Right?
所以，你知道，过去八个月我看起来像个傻瓜，但现在我已经超过了好几个人。
So, you know, I've looked like an idiot kind of for the last eight months, but now I've I've lapped several people.
我已经连续几个月是Milk Road Pro表现最好的分析师了。
I'm the top performing Milk Road Pro analyst for several months now.
我想回顾一下过去六个月的情况。
I think going back six months here.
好的。
Okay.
我在这里有点跑题了。
I'm getting lost in the weeds here.
重点是。
The point is this.
我在下跌过程中买了，所以我已经有了我想要的主要资产仓位。
I bought on the way down, so I have a position in the majors that I want.
现在我还有一部分现金仓位，很多人问我，我打算怎么用这部分钱。
Now I still have a cast position, and people are asking me a lot, what am I doing to deploy with it?
我会这样告诉你。
Here's what I would tell you.
现在这个位置，比特币这波上涨可能只是熊市中对阻力位的重新测试。
Right now where we are, this move on Bitcoin could still just be a bear market retest of bear market resistance.
因为还没有突破8万2，也就是五十周均线，并且把它变成支撑位，所以从技术面来看，图表上的技术指标显示，多头还没有完全掌控这个市场。
So because we haven't broken 82 k, which is the fifty week moving average and flipped that into support, technically, on a technical basis, on the technicals on the chart, we haven't seen the bulls take full control of this market yet.
所以在82或83千买入的风险是，如果我们看到周线或两周的周线收盘在82千以上，比特币再次下跌的风险就会大大降低，那么上涨的可能性就更大，我们会看到价格继续上涨到90千或100千。
So the risk to buying at 82 or 83 k, if we get, like, a weekly or two weeks of weekly candles above 82 k, the risk of Bitcoin going down again drops a lot, and the likelihood is then to the upside that we'll see continuation of price price action into the nineties or to a 100 k.
那时候你就有更多信心去部署资金了。
So you have more confidence to deploy capital at that point.
但是在79千，我们现在就在这个位置，就在我们谈话的时候，比特币正在尝试突破80千，并且在这个阻力位碰壁了。
However, at 79 k, we're like, right now, while we're having this conversation, Bitcoin is is trying to break through 80 k and is bumping its head on that resistance.
在我们突破之前，这还没有得到确认。
Until we get through there, it it's not confirmed yet.
所以在这里买入，在阻力位买入，是有风险的。
So it's it's risky deploying into this buying into resistance here.
对吧？
Right?
我在等待两件事中的一件发生。
I'm kind of waiting for one of two things to happen.
我在等待82.83千的价格来在山寨币上建仓，或者我在等待一个更低的高点或更高的低点。
I'm waiting for that $82.83 k to take positions in alts, or I'm waiting for a lower high or a a higher low.
抱歉。
Sorry.
更高的低点，意思是我们在8万被拒绝。
A higher low, meaning we get rejected off of 80.
我们没有突破这个阻力位，然后价格回落，在7万4、7万1附近找到多头支撑，大概在那个区间。
We don't break through this resistance, and then we come down and find support from the bulls at 74, at 71, somewhere in that range.
我觉得短期内可能会发生这种情况。
I think that might be what happens in the short term.
我确实认为比特币会再次回到7万出头的水平，在某个时间点。
I I do think we'll see a a kind of like a a return to the low seventies here from Bitcoin at some point.
我不知道什么时候，但如果你手里有资金，那可能是买入的时机。
I don't know when, but that would be the dip to buy, I think, if you're sitting in capital.
所以我觉得，如果你错过了这波大涨，现在没有理由去追涨，除非确认我们处于牛市。
So I don't think there's any reason right now if you miss this huge move to go chasing this pump until it confirms we're in a bull market.
但是，你知道，给它一点时间冷静一下，让烟雾散去，然后如果我们再次跌到7万出头，那我会大举行动，因为那可能是你唯一的机会。
But, you know, give it a minute to cool, let some smoke clear, and then if we get a dip into the low seventies again, that's when I would move with size because that might be the only dip you get.
这可能会直接涨上去，我们追不上了。
This might just get away from us here.
所以这就是那种
So that's kind what
我在想。
I'm thinking.
我从来没有对比特币和以太坊有过这么强烈的FOMO，即使它们从历史高点跌了60%，你知道吗，或者不管现在跌了多少。
I have never felt so much FOMO for Bitcoin and Ethereum when they're down 60% from all time highs, you know, or whatever they're at.
我不知道。
I don't know.
现在跌了40%。
It's 40% now.
但你懂我的意思吗？
But I'm you know what I mean?
就是，这就是最搞笑的地方。
It's like, that's what's so funny.
对吧？
Right?
是不是很多人，很多人在几百块的时候买入ETH，然后在4000多的时候买入。
Is that a lot of people a lot of people were buying in the hundreds, ETH and the 4 k's.
对吧？
Right?
然后现在，这波行情又让你重新思考了。
And then still now, this move is making you rethink.
这波行情太猛了，约翰，而且来得这么快，完全出乎意料，真的让我们很多人开始怀疑自己之前一直在做什么，是不是应该把所有的筹码都押进去？
It would this move was so violent, John, that and so unexpected to be this quick that it's really making a lot of us like like, short term question what you've been doing this whole time, and should you just empty your clip right into this?
而且这才几天时间。
And it's just a few days.
但我觉得，我觉得这挺有意思的。
But I think I think this is it's funny.
这是好消息。
It's it's positive news.
现在有向上的清算，而过去几个月我们只有向下的清算。
You have liquidations to the upside, which we've only had liquidations to the downside for months.
这是史上最大的清算之一。
Ten ten, largest liquidation ever.
这也是史上最大的清算之一，但这次是针对空头的。
This is also one of the largest liquidations ever, but for shorts.
但某种程度上还是让人难受。
And yet it's painful in some way.
而且让你晚上睡不着，因为你盯着比特币在58000、60000、61000、63000的时候，听你讲了好几个小时，却什么都没做。
And it keeps you up at night that you stared at Bitcoin at 58 and sixty and sixty one and sixty three, listened to you talk for hours, didn't do anything.
你知道吗？
You know?
我的意思是，就像，好吧。
Like, I I I'm just saying that it's like Okay.
我没有，我——
I didn't I
忘了加密货币上涨时也能让人这么痛苦，就像下跌时一样，而且你很快又会想起那种感觉，真是不可思议。
forgot how painful crypto could be to the upside as well to the downside, and it's amazing how quickly you're reminded of that feeling.
加密货币总有办法让每个人都感到最大痛苦，即使是在它表现积极的时候。
Crypto has a way of finding the max pain for everybody even when it's doing something positive.
但我要说的是。
But I'll I'll say this.
我要说的是，这是非常真实的事情。
What I will say about this is this is a very real thing.
我觉得有时候你需要管理你的资金来管理你的情绪。
I think sometimes you wanna manage your capital to manage your emotions.
我的意思是，如果你觉得自己配置不足，如果你一直在定投，以为还有很长时间可以买入，而现在你有一大笔资金没有投入市场，那么为了帮助控制这些情绪，你可以把你想要投入市场的资金中的5%或10%拿出来，先获得一点敞口。
So what I mean by that is if you feel like you are under allocated, if you were DCA ing and thought you had much longer to buy and now you have a whole bunch of capital that's not in the market, something to do to help kind of control those emotions is take five or 10% of whatever capital you kind of want to put into the market and get a little bit of exposure.
不是因为这样就能把你的全部仓位建好，而是因为这有助于平复一些情绪，并且能帮助你为剩余的资金制定一个让你感觉更舒服的计划。
Because not because that'll get your whole position in, but because that'll help calm some of those emotions, and that'll help you come up with a plan for the rest of the capital that makes you feel a little bit more comfortable.
但我觉得有很多人都有这种感觉。
But I think there are a lot of people who are feeling that way.
另外，山寨币的狂热已经失控了。
The other thing too is the mania and alts has been out of control.
比如，XRP在两天内从一美元涨到一点五美元。
Like, XRP went from a dollar to a dollar 50 in, like, two days.
所以，这些币的交易量简直疯狂。
So, like, the volume on these things has been wild.
所有山寨币都大幅上涨。
Every alt on the board has moved a huge amount.
人们也在想，天哪，我还能买什么？
And people are also wondering, like, oh my god, what else do I get?
我全都错过了。
I'm I'm missing all of this.
到处都是FOMO情绪。
And, like, there's just FOMO everywhere.
所以我会告诉任何关注比特币或其他资产的人，这些资产真的被低估了。
So I would tell anybody who's who's, like, looking at Bitcoin or anything else, these are really under owned assets.
比如，几乎没人持有ETH。
Like, nobody owns any ETH.
也没人持有比特币，而它们可是市场上最好的两种资产。
Nobody owns any Bitcoin, and they're two of the best assets in the market.
如果你需要建一个小仓位来平复自己的情绪，以便更清晰地思考其余资金，那就别拦着自己。这可能值得投入，就拿你想要的5%，先买一点你关注的头寸，然后从那里开始更冷静地思考。
If you if you need to get a small position just to help calm your own emotions so you can think more clearly about the rest of your capital, don't stop yourself from doing that because it might be worth the investment of just take 5% of whatever you want, get a little bit of the the positions you're looking at, and then just, you know, think a little bit more clearly about it from there.
不过，确实，兄弟，这种FOMO情绪太强烈了。
But, yeah, man, it's it's the the FOMO is intense.
而且还有一点，这不只是散户的问题。
And the other thing too, this is not limited to retail.
机构早就感受到了这种压力，但现在因为价格波动，散户也开始感受到了。
Institutions have been feeling this for a long time, but now retail is feeling it because of this price movement.
但机构在进入数字资产、推出产品和服务方面那种令人窒息的极速步伐，一直没停过，我敢肯定这也会在他们那边引发和散户一样的恐慌。
But the the breathless breakneck speed that re that institutions have been moving at to get into digital assets to to move products and services to market in this asset class has been, like, relentless, and I'm sure this is gonna cause just as much panic on their side as as on the retail side.
所以现在每个人都在经历FOMO。
So everybody's feeling FOMO right now.
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试着用这个来平复一下，如果这对你来说是个问题的话，然后试着利用这一点，在你的投资组合里，能利用就利用，因为你知道，如果你在加密货币里，市场现在正向你走来。
Try to use that to, try to quell that if it's a problem for you, and then try to use that to your advantage, where you can in your portfolio and and and take advantage of that because, you know, the market's coming to you now if you're in crypto.
所以是个好时机。
So a good time.
对。
Mhmm.
对。
Mhmm.
对。
Mhmm.
好时机，好时机，我觉得也是锻炼耐心的好时机。
Good time good time to exercise that patience as well, I think.
就像你说的，你感到FOMO，也许可以稍微配置一点。
And like you're saying, you feel that FOMO, maybe allocate a little bit.
如果你还有剩余的话，你知道，如果你还有剩余的话。
If you have anything left too, you know, if you if you had something left.
也许很多人比我们更有耐心，其实一直在买。
Maybe maybe a lot of people were just being way more patient than we were and actually buying buying the whole time.
约翰，我确实想聊聊这篇文章。
John, I do wanna talk about this essay.
你又写了一篇很棒的文章。
You put on another fantastic essay.
周末在X上简直火爆了。
Absolutely lighting up x over the weekend.
又是一篇关于战时以太坊的文章，有点像你上一篇的续篇。
Another wartime Ethereum essay, kinda like the follow-up to your last one.
既讲ETH，也泛泛地谈数字资产和整个加密货币。
Both about ETH and also just generally about digital assets and about about crypto overall.
你知道，你过去几周或几个月的核心观点是，如果你搞AI，就转向加密货币。
You know, your main message for the last few weeks or last few months was if you're an AI pivot to crypto.
过去七天这个观点非常明显，但公平地说，我们需要把眼光放长远。
Very obvious in for the last seven days, but, you know, we need to zoom out to be fair.
为什么现在大家的下一笔钱应该投到加密货币而不是AI呢？
What why why should somebody's next dollar go into crypto rather than AI at this point?
因为我觉得AI这块，大部分交易里容易赚的钱已经被赚得差不多了。
Because I think AI, for the most part, those trades the easy money on those trades is pretty well played out.
我觉得大家都已经明白内存和美光很重要了。
I think everybody has figured out memory and Micron are important.
我觉得大家都知道这会是件大事。
I think everybody knows that this is gonna be a huge thing.
我觉得已经有大量资金投入到里面了。
I think a ton of capital is allocated to it.
所以，我只是觉得这就像那种情况，我不是说要做空AI。
So And I just feel like it's one of those things where it's like, I'm not saying short AI.
我不是说这个交易不会继续有效。
I'm not saying that the trade won't continue to work.
我不是说那里不会再有表现。
I'm not saying that there won't still be performance there.
我也不是说标普不会涨到8000点。
And I'm not saying that S and P won't get to 8,000.
对吧？
Right?
这一切都会继续发展，但问题是，这个涨幅的规模和速度会怎么样？
It it it all this is gonna continue to play out, but it's just that, like, what is going to be the scale of that move and the speed of it?
因为我觉得现在AI领域的很多交易正在经历一个消化、冷却、横盘震荡的时期。
Because I think a lot of these trades in the AI space right now are going through a a period of digestion, of cooling, of sideways chop.
其中一些可能会有回调，这也是市场动态的一部分。
There may be some pullbacks in some of these things, and and that's just part of market dynamics.
对吧？
Right?
就像，不管基本面逻辑有多强。
Like, it doesn't matter how strong the fundamental thesis is.
到了某个时候，市场上的资金就那么多。
At some point, there's only so much capital to go around.
我一直说如果你从AI转向加密货币，原因就在这里，因为整个数字资产领域整体上一直没什么成交量，没什么投机，也没什么关注。
And I think the the the reason I've been saying if you're an AI pivot to crypto is exactly for the reason that nobody there's been very little volume, very little speculation, very little attention on the digital assets space in the whole industry overall.
与此同时，基本面从未如此强劲，而且还在加速，而不是在衰退。
At the same time, the fundamentals have never been stronger, and they're accelerating, not not declining.
所以这就是我一直想强调的，因为加密货币是你能在市场下一波大行情之前抢先布局的机会，而不是去追一个已经走完、所有投资者都已经发现并配置好的行情。
So that's been something I've been trying to pound the table on because crypto is the opportunity where where where you can get ahead of the next big move in the market as opposed to chasing a a move that's already played out that everybody, every every investor everywhere has already figured out and allocated to.
这就是我的一个基本观点。
So that's a little bit of the thesis there.
不过我觉得Jordy Fisher就是个很好的例子。
But I think Jordy Fisher is a great example of this.
Jordy在美光股价大概100美元的时候开始买入，一直跌到60美元，然后你知道，后来涨到了差不多1000美元。
Jordy was buying Micron at, like, a $100 all way down to $60, and then, you know, that ballooned to, like, almost 1,000.
现在它在消化涨幅，但美光之前涨得非常非常猛。
It's digesting now, but, like, there's huge, huge run up in in Micron.
现在Jordy在力推比特币和以太坊，说这才是下一波交易机会。
Now Jordi is pounding the table on Bitcoin and Ethereum and saying this is where the next trade is.
这种数字稀缺性的论点很有道理。
This digital scarcity thesis makes a lot of sense.
我在文章里详细写过这个，而我想再写一篇关于以太坊的战时文章，正是因为这个原因——不要只看价格的上涨。
I wrote about this extensively in the article, and the reason I wanted to write another wartime Ethereum article about this was exactly for this reason of, like, don't just look at the pump.
不要只盯着屏幕上的数字和绿色的K线追涨，虽然那感觉不错，也挺有意思的。
Don't just come chasing the numbers on the screen and the green candles, although that feels good and it's fun.
而且，你知道，我们来这里是为了赚钱。
And, you know, we're here to make money.
我不是说谁不应该为了赚钱，但理解数字资产背后更大的逻辑，我觉得比短期的上涨更有价值。
I'm not saying anybody should cannot be here to make money, but understanding the bigger thesis at play in digital assets is much more valuable, I think, than the short term pump.
所以我谈了很多关于这个巨大的超级周期和代币化，Vlad Tenev也提到过并写了文章。
And so I talked a lot about this huge super cycle and tokenization that Vlad Tenev talked about and wrote an article about.
然后我还谈到了代理商务、代理AI或代理金融的兴起，以及它如何加速发展，已经成为一个巨大的市场，并且有望从现在的规模增长100倍，以及这如何为以太坊等数字资产及其整个生态系统带来交易量和价值。
And then I also talked about the rise of agentic commerce, agentic AI or agentic finance, and how that's accelerating and already becoming a huge market and on pace to become, you know, a 100 x from where it is, and how that drives volume volume value to digital assets like Ethereum and that ecosystem overall.
人们需要理解这些，因为数万亿美元的资金、数万亿新的代理用户，这真的让人难以想象，而且对人们来说，要理解这到底意味着什么，以及对市场带来多大的变化，确实有点困难。
And people need to kinda understand these things because trillions of dollars of capital, trillions of new agentic users, it kinda like overwhelms the mind, and it it's a little bit, like, hard for people to contextualize what that actually means and how big of a change that is to the marketplace.
所以我想写一点关于这方面的内容，帮助大家理解为什么现在是回到加密货币的好时机，不管你现在在哪里，都应该去了解这个领域，并制定一个适合自己的投资理念。
So I want to write a little bit about that and help people understand why now is a good time to be pivoting back to crypto from wherever you are and to just educate yourself about the space and come up with a thesis that makes sense for you.
你知道，我们在节目里经常谈到，加密货币正在迅速成为全球支付基础设施的重要组成部分，这一点在亚洲表现得最为明显。
You know, one thing we've talked about a lot on this show is that crypto is quickly becoming a huge part of the global payments infrastructure, and nowhere is that more obvious than in Asia.
但如果你经营一家汇款公司或支付业务，你会知道，难点并不在于转移稳定币。
But if you're running a remittance company or a payment business, you know that the hard part isn't moving the stablecoins.
难点在于处理本地银行合作伙伴、合规、流动性，以及向印度和东南亚等地汇款时遇到的各种运营麻烦。
It's dealing with local banking partners, compliance, liquidity, and all of the operational headaches that come with sending money into places like India and Southeast Asia.
这就是为什么今天的合作伙伴是Saber。
That's why today's partner is Saber.
他们为支付公司提供基于稳定币的基础设施，帮助它们在亚洲各地收款和付款，而无需自己构建所有这些复杂的系统。
They give payment companies stablecoin powered infrastructure to collect and make payouts across Asia without having to build all of that complexity themselves.
他们已经在40多个国家处理了超过30亿美元的交易，所以这不仅仅是一个概念。
They've already processed more than $3,000,000,000 in transactions across 40 different countries, so this isn't just a concept.
这些人确实在实实在在地做这件事。
These guys are actually doing this for real.
如果你在搭建支付基础设施，或者打算拓展亚洲市场，一定要去看看 saber.money。
If you're building payment infrastructure or expanding into Asia, make sure you check out saber.money.
你的投资逻辑有多大程度依赖于斯科特·贝森和这增加的流动性？
How much of this how much of your thesis depends on Scott Besson and this increased liquidity?
比如，如果这些流动性没有实现呢？
Like, what if this liquidity doesn't materialize?
我觉得流动性不实现的可能性非常低。
I think that there's a very low chance that the liquidity won't materialize.
这个周末的新闻发布会上，特朗普总统威胁说，如果有必要，会动用美国军队来应对债券市场。
In a press conference this weekend, president Trump threatened to use the US military against the bond market if necessary.
我不知道那具体意味着什么，但我可以告诉你一点。
And I don't know what that means, but I can tell you this.
那就是，流动性就要来了，宝贝。
It means liquidity is coming, baby.
所以，那肯定会发生的。
So that's gonna happen.
斯科特·贝森特今天下午两点会讲话。
Scott Bessett is speaking at 2PM this afternoon.
到时候肯定会有一些公告发布。
There's gonna be, you know, announcements there.
凯文·莫里斯周五会在杰克逊霍尔经济政策研讨会上发言，那是央行每年都举办的会议。
Kevin Morris is talking Friday at the Jackson Hole economic policy symposium that the the central banks do every year.
我预计，基本上这就是我所预期的，因为之前已经释放了这样的信号。
I I'm expecting this is generally what I'm expecting because this is what's been signaled.
沃尔什在美联储那边有他的工作组，他们要重新评估美联储的反应机制，并证明他们维持利率不变是合理的，直到他们能够顺利转向降息，而不是加息，而这一点我觉得市场还没有完全消化。
Walsh has his, his task forces at the Fed to reevaluate the Fed's reaction function and justify them holding rates constant until they're able to work themselves around to a rate cut, not a rate hike, which is still not fully priced in, I don't think.
斯科特·贝森特已经表示，他愿意动用财政部总账户里的资金，那个账户现在大概有九万九千亿美元的资本，用来支持债券市场并增加流动性。
And Scott Besson has signaled that he's willing to spend money out of the TGA, the treasury general account, which has, like, I think around $9,900,000,000,000 of capital in it right now to support the bond market and add liquidity.
而且他还在加倍进行长期回购协议，就像我刚才说的，这会缩短美国未偿债务的久期，实际上增加了市场流动性。
And he's doubling his long dated repurchasing agreements, as I already said, which shortens the duration of The US's outstanding debt and effectively increases the liquidity in the markets.
他是否真的在注资，这并不重要。
Whether or not he's actually doing a capital injection isn't what's important.
重要的是政策信号和结构性方向，就是美联储要给我们降低借贷成本，因为降低利率就是这个意思。
It's important that the policy signal, the structural direction is that the Federal Reserve is gonna give us lower cost of borrowing because that's what lower interest rates means.
这让资本变得更便宜。
It makes capital cheaper.
而财政部，斯科特·贝森，也在释放信号说他会向市场提供流动性。
And the the treasury department, Scott Besson, is signaling that he's going to be providing that liquidity to the markets.
他们是通过债券市场来做这件事的，但最终的结果是，边际资金能够去追逐风险，支持股市和风险资产市场的牛市。
They're doing this through the bond markets, but really the end result is that the the marginal dollar is able to go seek risk and support the bull run-in the equities markets and in the risk asset markets.
你还会看到货币贬值交易卷土重来，黄金和比特币也已经有了这样的反应。
And you're also gonna see the debasement trade come back, and gold and Bitcoin have both responded in that way as well.
所以我觉得总的来说，他们不会突然改变主意。
So I think generally speaking, there's not they're they're not gonna, like, suddenly change their minds.
算了，别管了。
Like, never mind.
我们想在中期选举前让市场崩盘。
We wanna crash the markets before midterms.
我觉得这波牛市会延续到2027年。
I think this is gonna continue this bull run extended into 2027.
这对所有市场都有利，但我确实认为比特币、加密货币，尤其是以太坊，会从这些因素中受益。
It's gonna be supportive for all markets, but I do think that Bitcoin, crypto, Ethereum specifically, are poised to benefit from all of these factors.
从额外的流动性、更低的借贷成本、代币化的兴起，以及智能体金融的普及，所有这些都会围绕以太坊网络、以太坊资产以及整个加密货币领域形成一个价值核心。
From the additional liquidity, from the lower cost of borrowing, from the rise of tokenization, and the proliferation of agentic finance, all of that creates a nexus of of value around the Ethereum network and the Ethereum asset and crypto generally.
对吧？
Right?
这个交易会有很多贝塔收益，加密货币的其他领域也会有很多表现。
There's gonna be lots of beta to this trade and and lots of performance in in other places in crypto.
不会全都集中在以太坊上。
It's not just all gonna be on Ethereum.
Solana也会表现不错。
Solana will do well.
比特币也会表现好，往下排还有更多。
Bitcoin will do well on down the list.
但这就是我在这里看到的完美风暴，这也是我想说清楚的一些事情，因为你知道，当这根巨大的绿色蜡烛回来的时候，大家都会注意到。
But that's sort of the the the perfect storm that I'm seeing here, and that's some of what I wanted to spell out because, you know, everybody will pay attention when this giant green candle comes back.
所以这就是我想传达的，嘿。
And so that's kinda what I wanted to communicate of, hey.
这才是你真正应该知道的，不只是数字上涨，你知道，我们赢了，上月球了。
This is what you should actually know, not just number go up, you know, we win moon.
你明白吗？
You know?
约翰，关于这个我也想问你一个问题，而且很自然，你是个超级ETH多头，我觉得这周你请来了最大的ETH多头来上节目。
John, I one question I wanna ask you about this too, and and naturally, you're you're you're, you know, massive ETH bull, and I think you have the biggest ETH bull coming on the show, this week.
这个我让你稍后自己宣布，但确实没有比你请到的这位嘉宾更大的了。
And I'll let you announce that a little bit later, but there there is there is no bigger one than the the guest you you have managed to secure for for the show.
ETH相对于比特币表现如何？
How does ETH perform against Bitcoin?
对吧？
Right?
而且你那位嘉宾这周末也发了一张图，跟我说，听着。
And that's something and your guest coming up posted a chart this weekend as well showing me like, listen.
我们该突破以太坊对比特币的十年下行趋势了。
We're due to break out out of a ten year downtrend of ETH versus Bitcoin.
从我进入这个领域以来，大家就一直说翻转要来了，以太坊要超越比特币，但上个周期，约翰，这真是让人大失所望。
Ever since my time in in the space, people been like, the flippinging is coming, of of ETH is gonna flip Bitcoin, which last cycle, John, was majorly disappointing.
以太坊连历史高点都没怎么突破，勉强摸了一下，而比特币却几乎从历史高点翻了一倍。
It did not we couldn't even we barely ETH barely just top ticked a little bit above all time highs, and really whereas Bitcoin went, you know, almost two x off all time highs.
那这次有什么不同呢？
So what is the case this time?
你已经解释过了，但我觉得重温一下总是好的。
And you've already explained it, but I think it's always good revisiting it.
是什么让你这么有信心，觉得以太坊终于要迎来它的高光时刻了？
How how what makes you so confident that that ETH is finally ready for its moment here?
关于这个ETH/BTC的比率图和整个翻转的讨论，我和很多数字资产领域的投资者都学到了一点，就是最好不要在这上面太用力。
Well, on this whole ETH BTC ratio chart and this whole flipping in conversation, I and I think a lot of other investors in the digital asset space have kind of learned that it's best to not pound the table too hard on this.
我不会坐在这里武断地告诉你，以太坊这轮一定会超越比特币，或者类似的事情会发生。
I'm not gonna sit here dogmatically and tell you that Ethereum is gonna flip Bitcoin this cycle or anything like that is gonna happen.
不过，以太坊作为资产和比特币作为资产，确实有不同的价值驱动因素，我觉得这一点是值得注意的。
However, there are distinct value drivers for ETH as an asset versus Bitcoin as an asset, and I think that's appreciable.
对吧？
Right?
重要的是要明白，不是所有数字资产都是一样的。
Like, the important thing is to just understand that not all digital assets are created equal.
不是所有的都有相同的代币经济模型。
Not all of them have the same kind of tokenomics.
不是所有的都有相同的收入驱动因素或价值驱动因素。
Not all of them have the same revenue drivers or value drivers.
所以每种数字资产都有很多不同的特质，它们之间也有区别。
So there's much different qualities that every digital asset has, and there's distinctives between them.
虽然有理由认为这种情况可能不会发生，但也有理由认为，以太坊强大的价值驱动因素可能让它在这里表现得比比特币更强劲。
And there's reason to think this may not be what plays out, but there's reason to think that Ethereum's strong value drivers may cause it to to perform stronger than Bitcoins here.
就像我说的，代币化、稳定币和去中心化金融，所有这些都发生在智能合约平台的生态系统中。
Like I said, the the tokenization, stablecoins, and Gentic Finance, all of those are happening in smart contract platform ecosystems.
其中绝大部分仍然在以太坊上，而且一直是以太坊。
The lion's share of all of those still is on Ethereum and has continued to be on Ethereum.
所以它仍然保持着在那里的主导地位。
So it's still holding that dominance there.
但我要说的是，在ETH/BTC图表上，它已经下跌了十年。
But what I would say is on that ETH BTC chart, it's been in a downtrend for ten years.
以太坊已经突破了那个下跌趋势，但你知道，可能需要一段时间才能开始转化为持续的动态变化。
Ethereum has broken out of that downtrend, but, you know, there could be a while before that starts to resolve into a sustained change in in dynamic there.
这可能是假突破。
It could be a false breakout.
我们可能会重新测试下跌趋势，然后继续走高。
We could, you know, retest the downtrend before we continue higher.
所以我不会到处大喊大叫，哦，天哪。
So I I I'm not, like, you know, running around screaming, oh my gosh.
以太坊要超越比特币了。
ETH is gonna flip Bitcoin.
这周就会发生。
It's happening this week.
但我觉得，大家已经注意到那条下降趋势线被突破了，而且以太坊的独特价值驱动因素现在看起来非常强劲。
But I think that there is has been a lot of attention on the fact that that downtrend has been broken, and the distinct value drivers to Ethereum seem very strong right now.
所以，以太坊可能会有一段时间表现比其他数字资产更强劲。
So there might be a period of of strong performance from Ethereum relative to the rest of the digital asset class.
这你知道，它有一种张力。
And that's you know, it's got a it's got a tension.
这也值得关注，因为那会是一个大变化。
It's worth monitoring too because that would be a big change.
如果以太坊真的开始领先于比特币，那将是整个加密市场动态的巨大变化，不管你喜欢还是不喜欢加密领域的哪些资产，这都是值得注意和留意的，那会是一个巨大的变化。
If Ethereum does start to lead in performance over Bitcoin, that's a huge change in market dynamics in the crypto space overall, and it's something to be mindful of and pay attention to what regardless of of which assets you do or don't like in the crypto space, it would be a huge change.
这个问题可能更多是那些“赌徒”在问，但使用交易所的人也会问。
Does how much does the and this this could be a question that maybe more the degens are asking, but also people who use exchanges are asking too.
这个问题其实不是关于L2和L1的争论。
How do the and this is not really an l two l one debate question.
这更像是一个机构层面的L2问题问你，过去两个月最大的新闻之一，或者说最吸引眼球的事情之一，就是Robinhood推出了自己的链。
This is more a institutional l two question for you that one of the biggest, pieces of news, I guess, or one of the biggest, attention grabbers of the last two months has been Robinhood launching its own chain.
对吧？
Right?
而且就像你刚才提到的，Vlad Tenev已经公开表态，非常支持。
And like you already mentioned, Vlad Tenev has come out and is very supportive.
对，昨晚还放出了一个采访。
Even, yeah, there's an interview that dropped last night.
他确实承认了他的链上正在发生的那些“战壕”现象，这是Brian Armstrong一直很难妥善处理的事情。
He's he literally acknowledge he's acknowledging the trenches that are happening on his chain, something that Brian Armstrong, has has really struggled to do properly.
再说一次，这不是一个“degen”式的问题。
And this again, this is not a degen question.
但我想问的是，我们几乎是在为Base和Robinhood链之间的“战壕”小战争做准备。
What I'm asking though is is we're we're setting up almost for a little war in the trenches between the base and the Robin Hood chain.
Kraken 的 Inc 也开始有一些传闻了。
Inc from Kraken is is starting to get some rumors around it.
这是不是意味着，我猜这对以太坊来说都是好事。
Is this does that I'm assuming that this is all really good for Ethereum.
对吧？
Right?
你看到很多主流交易所，人们真正活跃使用的东西，甚至 Robinhood 也推出自己的链，这对外以太坊来说肯定是一个非常积极的信号，除了机构层面之外。
That you're seeing a lot of major exchanges, things that people really use actively, and even Robinhood still launching its own chain that that is a must be a really positive signal for Ethereum outside of all the institutional, side as well.
人们对这件事真正误解的地方是，是的，Robinhood 和 Coinbase 都在以太坊上构建。
Something that people really misunderstand about this is that, yes, both Robinhood and Coinbase are building on Ethereum.
对。
Yes.
他们带来了数百万新用户进入加密货币，特别是以太坊。
They brought millions of new users into crypto and into Ethereum specifically.
但他们是文化的中心、经济活动的中心，这意味着以太坊将捕获这些的第二和第三层效应，也就是说，随着人类开始在链上进行更多交易，随着更多资产上链，它们都会来到以太坊。
But the fact that they are the center of culture, the center of the economic activity means that Ethereum stands to capture the second and third order effects of this, which means that as human beings start to do more transactions on chain, as more assets come on chain, they are going to come to Ethereum.
所以代币化的兴起会带来更多的资金、更多的资产、更多的稳定币需求、更多的用户，然后还有更多的AI用户。
And so the rise of tokenization is gonna bring more capital, more assets, more stablecoin demand, more users, and then more AI users.
然后这就从Robinhood和Coinbase带来的几百万用户开始，我是说，几百万。
And then that goes from a few million users that have been onboarded by Robinhood and coin I mean, a few million.
比如，每个都有三千万用户。
Like, there's 30,000,000 in each.
对吧？
Right?
用户很多。
There's a lot of users.
对吧？
Right?
现在因为Coinbase和Robinhood，有数百万人在使用以太坊，但是那些人创造的AI代理，用来替他们交易、进行商业和经济活动，也会通过这些平台，而且那也会在以太坊上。
There's millions of people using Ethereum now because of Coinbase and Robinhood, but the AI agents that those people create to trade for them to take to conduct, you know, commerce and economic activity on their behalf will also be through some of these platforms, and that's also gonna be on on Ethereum as well.
所以我认为这只是以太坊在战略上做出的一个权衡，就是抓住代币化、稳定币和AI支付或代理金融的整体市场份额，并把那个重心保持在以太坊生态系统中，因为它会加速增长。
And so I I think this is just like one of the trade offs that Ethereum made strategically, which is to capture the overall market share of tokenization, stablecoins, and AI payments or and and agentic finance and keep that center of gravity in the Ethereum ecosystem because it's going to accelerate and grow.
所以短期内，以太坊只向Robinhood收取几千美元，用来运行Robinhood链，处理所有这些在ETH上发生的交易和乱七八糟的事情，并从中获得安全性。
So in the short term, Ethereum is only charging a few thousand dollars to to Robinhood to to run the Robinhood chain and to conduct all this, you know, all this trenching and all this stuff that's happening on Robinhood on ETH and to get the security from ETH.
然而，代价是现在以太坊成为了基础层，成为全球信任的中立结算层，可能支撑下一个世纪的金融，这其实是一笔相当不错的交易。
However, the the trade off is that now Ethereum becomes the base layer, the globally global globally trusted neutral settlement layer for all of this next century of finance potentially, and that's a a pretty good deal.
所以这就是你如何看待这些事情，评估谁现在赢、谁以后赢，以及所有这些事情的权衡。
So that's that's kinda how you, like, look at these things and evaluate which you know, who's winning now versus later, what's the trade offs on all these things.
我觉得这一切都令人兴奋。
I I think it's just all exciting.
现在这些都还只是原型。
It's it's all prototypes right now.
一切都在慢慢发生和发展。
It's all, like, happening slowly and developing.
但你知道，我邀请了WalletConnect的CEO来节目，她谈了很多关于如何减少人类用户在这方面的摩擦，而且他们看到的93%的交易量仍然在以太坊主网上。
But, you know, I'm having the CEO of WalletConnect on, and she talks a lot about how to reduce friction for human users for this, and, like, 93% of the volume that they're seeing is still on Ethereum main net.
所以这个策略是有效的。
So the strategy is working.
就像，我我我，但短期内，感觉就是，哦，Robinhood 只是在尽情享受，赚得盆满钵满，而且这些钱不会回流到
Like, I I I just but it it in the short term, it's like, oh, Robinhood's just, you know, having all fun having all the fun and making all the money, and it's not going back to
ETH。
ETH.
对。
Yeah.
但这一切最终都会流向 ETH，我觉得这一点很多人都没意识到。
It is all coming to ETH, and that is, I think, lost on a lot of people.
哦，确实。
Oh, yeah.
完全同意。
Absolutely.
而且即使是像 Base 这样的项目，虽然我们现在不太常听到它的消息了，但它仍然有 60 亿美元的 TBL。
And even something like Base, which which we don't hear too much about about anymore, it still has $6,000,000,000 in in TBL.
对吧？
Right?
所以这可不是零，而且如果你要进入大型机构，或者不是零售，也会预期它会增长，因为他们把Coinbase应用改成了Base应用。
So not nothing and something that you would expect to grow if you're gonna go into a major institutional, or not a retail, run as well because that they chain change the Coinbase app into being the Base app.
对吧？
Right?
所以他们让你访问所有这些应用，而且很明显Robinhood看到了很大的潜力，所以他们有了自己的链。
So they give you access to all those apps and and clearly something that Robinhood sees a lot of potential in, with having their own chain.
而且你可以说Robinhood几个月前就通过推出自己的链，预示了从AI到加密货币的转变。
And and and you could argue that Robinhood was calling this pivot, AI to crypto thing months ago by launching their own chain.
对吧？
Right?
我觉得，但是不。
I think but no.
但说真的，为什么要在熊市中期做这个？
But really, why would you do that in the middle of the bear market?
就像，当AI股票都在历史高点飙升的时候，它实际上是在六月底推出的。
Like, when everybody when AI stocks are ripping at the all time high, it literally launched end of June.
对吧？
Right?
所以很明显，弗拉德·特涅夫和他的团队早就知道这一点。
So clearly something that that Vlad Tenev and his team were aware of.
约翰，我想把话题拉回到我们之前聊的内容，这也是你在文章里提到过几次，或者稍微触及过的话题。
John, I wanna go kinda zoom back out to, our earlier conversation, and and this is something you kind of mentioned in your essay as well or kind of touched on a few times.
过去五六天，加密货币市场出现了这么剧烈的波动，我们很多人都被打了个措手不及。
We're see many of us caught off guard by such a violent move in the crypto markets in the last five, six days.
你提到了四年周期。
You mentioned the four year cycle.
这个话题真的很难一锤定音，因为至少在接下来的五周里，我们还会继续讨论它，直到确认今年是不是又一个熊市年，或者不是。
It's something that's gonna be really hard to put to bed one way or another, because we are gonna keep talking about that at least for the next five weeks until there is this, you know, one year bear market confirmation or not if there is another one.
假设四年周期真的结束了。
Let's say that it is the end of the four year cycle.
假设我们在7月1日触底了，而且就像你说的，真正的底部可能是在二月份。
Let's say we bottomed in in on July 1, and like you said, the true bottom or the real bottom maybe was in February.
那什么会取代它呢？
What replaces it?
因为那一直是加密货币领域唯一真正的结构。
Because that has been our only true structure in crypto forever.
那之后会是什么呢？
So what what be what comes after that?
在那之后，我们会有怎样的周期性，如果有的话？
What kind of cyclicality do we have after that, if any?
你在节目结尾问了我一个很大的问题。
This is a huge question you just asked me at the end of this episode.
就这一点，我可以聊上一个半小时。
I could talk for an hour and a half about this one thing right here.
也许那是下周的话题。
Maybe that's next week maybe that's next week's topic.
也许我们下周一可以聊这个，你现在可以先简单提一下。
Maybe we could cover that next Monday, and maybe you can just allude to it here.
我尽量给你简短地讲一下。
I'll I'll try to give you the short version on this.
我觉得，不幸的是，你只有在事后才能对这些问题有把握。
I think that, unfortunately, the only way you're gonna have confidence on answering some of these questions is in hindsight.
所以，比如，二月份的时候有人问我，这是不是意味着四年周期结束了？
So, like, when when you know, in February, when somebody asked me, like, does this mean the four four year cycle is over?
你什么时候才肯承认四年周期的说法是对的？
When are you gonna finally admit that the four year cycle thesis was correct?
我当时就说，给我一年时间看看价格走势，因为现在根本没法判断会怎么发展。
I was like, give me a year to get some price action on this because, like, it's impossible to tell what is gonna play out here.
如果今年年底比特币超过10万，那问题就是，我们是开启了一轮新的牛市，还是之前那轮牛市被拉长了？
If we see this year end with Bitcoin over a 100 k, then the question is, did we start a new bull market, or did we see a lengthening of the prior bull market?
至于你问的，是什么在推动这一切？
And, you know, to your question, what is the driver of this?
我觉得还是同一个东西。
I would say it's the same thing.
我觉得如果你看ISM指数，看黄金铜比，还有ISM制造业PMI调查，这些都是经济活动加速、商业周期加速的历史指标。
I would say if you look at the ISM, if you look at the gold copper ratio, the ISM PMI manufacturing survey, these are historical indicators of accelerating economic activity of the accelerating business cycle.
但这种情况之前没有发生。
That hasn't happened.
直到最近才出现。
It's been delayed until recently.
所以我们现在已经看到ISM PMI调查连续七个月上升，黄金铜比也在朝正确的方向移动。
So we've seen seven months now of rising ISM PMI surveys and the gold copper ratio moving in the right direction.
所以这标志着，原本应该按照四年周期到来的经济加速，因为财政部改变了再融资方式而被推迟和延长了。
So it's a sign that the economic acceleration that was supposed to come on that four year cadence got delayed and extended because of the the treasury changing how they're refinancing things.
我在这里讲了很多宏观的东西，但核心是，加密货币四年周期的驱动因素并没有改变。
I'm talking a lot about a lot of macro things here, but the gist of it is the the the the drivers of of of the the crypto crypto four year cycle have not changed.
只是时间上有所偏移，很多人以为加密货币四年周期和减半周期有关。
The timing of them have shifted, and a lot of people thought that the crypto four year cycle was tied to the having cycle.
其实它只是恰好和这些真正驱动一切的宏观周期重合了。
It just happened to line up with these macro cycles that have actually been driving all of this.
所以它可能会证实，你知道，在分析中，有一种叫做虚假相关的东西，意思是两件事看起来在同步变化，但实际上它们并不互相影响。
And so what it might do is it might confirm that, you know, in in analysis, there's something called spurious correlation, meaning that two things can appear to be moving together, but they're not impacting each other.
这就像是个巧合。
It's just like a a coincidence.
所以，如果你认为相关性成立，那是个错误，因为那只是图表上的一个假象。
So it's you it's a mistake to assume that correlation holds because it's just, you know, an an illusion in the charts.
但如果这种情况真的发生，它可能会表明，好吧，日历并不是驱动比特币的因素。
But what this might do if this plays out, right, is it might show that, okay, the calendar isn't what's driving Bitcoin.
减半周期并不是驱动比特币价格的因素。
The halving cycle isn't what's driving Bitcoin's price.
真正驱动资本是否寻求比特币敞口的，是更广泛的宏观经济格局、流动性因素以及商业周期条件，而不是那个日历或减半周期。
It's really the larger macroeconomic landscape and the liquidity factors and business conditions around that business cycle conditions rather around that that are driving whether or not capital is seeking exposure to Bitcoin for for one thesis or another one reason or another.
但这又回到了同一个问题。
But it it's just again, it gets back to the same question.
我认为这是一个学习的机会，因为随着年底临近，不同的分析师对这个问题会有不同的答案。
I think it's an opportunity to learn because there's there's different analysts are gonna have different answers to this question as we get towards the end of the year.
你看，听我说。
You know, look.
如果比特币在十月份跌回五万五，那也没关系。
If Bitcoin goes back down to 55 k in October, fine.
也许一切都刚刚好，也许这个四年周期真的完全应验了。
You know, maybe maybe it all just worked out exactly right and, you know, maybe the 40 cycle works exactly.
但如果比特币在十月或十一月接近十万，或者年底超过十万——我们现在可是在八万的位置。
But if Bitcoin is closer to a 100 k by October, November, or over a 100 k by the end of the year, which, again, we're sitting at 80 k right now.
这也不是不可能的事，今天来看并不离谱。
It's not an insane it's not out of the possible realm of possibility today.
明天可能看起来疯狂，但今天，它看起来是有可能的。
Could look crazy tomorrow, but today, it looks like it could be possible.
所以这会改变很多分析，对我、对其他人都是，而且我特别感兴趣，因为看到整个行业不得不重新评估一些重大假设，那会是一个很好的学习机会，我也会非常兴奋。
So that changes a lot of analysis for for me, for other people, and that's something I'm really interested in because seeing the whole industry have to reevaluate some of these major prior assumptions would be a great opportunity to learn, and and something I'd be really excited about.
但那个四年周期一直让我困扰，因为我一直在坚持说牛市会继续。
But it's the four year cycle thing has always been something that's bothered me because I've been, like, pounding the table on the like, the bull run's gonna continue.
然后我们确实迎来了牛市和山寨季，但那只发生在股票市场，而不是加密货币市场。
And then we got the bull run-in the alt season, but it just was in the equities markets, not in crypto.
现在看起来它可能正在回归。
Now it seems like it might be coming back.
总之，就像我说的，我可以就这个话题聊上一个小时，因为回答这类问题涉及的东西太多了。
Anyway, I could ramp like I said, I could talk about this for an hour because there's just so much that goes into answering this kind of a question.
但核心是，我认为驱动所有市场的宏观条件也在推动比特币的估值，而这可能会让人们对比特币的估值以及未来市场驱动因素产生不同的理解。
But the gist of it is that I think the macro conditions that drive all markets are also driving the Bitcoin valuation, and I think this might be something that gives people, a different kind of understanding of crypto valuations and the drivers of this market going forward.
这是一件令人兴奋的事情。
And that's an exciting thing.
所以我真的很好奇这会如何发展。
So I'm I'm really curious to see how this plays out.
今年下半年和第四季度将会非常激动人心，我真的很期待。
This is gonna be a really exciting second half of the year and and q four, so I'm I'm really looking forward to this.
最后一个问题问你。
Last question for you.
一周后，也就是我们录同一期节目的时候，比特币的价格会是多少？
What's the price of Bitcoin in a week today when we're recording the same episode?
哦，你这是要考我啊。
Oh, this is how you do me.
哎呀，天哪。
Oh, man.
一周后的比特币。
Bitcoin in a week.
你看啊。
Look.
看起来是看涨的。
It looks bullish.
我觉得我们会超过八万二。
I'm gonna say we're we're gonna be over 82 k.
如果现在让我猜，就像抛硬币一样，要么我们重新进入牛市，要么不进入，但看起来我们是要冲一把的。
Like, if I had to call right now a coin toss between we we break the bull market or we don't break back into a bull market or we don't, it looks like we're going for it.
所以我觉得FOMO会赢，我们会重新进入技术性牛市。
So I'm gonna say that the FOMO wins and we we go back into technical bull market.
我不知道能不能稳住，但我觉得可能会超过8万2。
I don't know if we hold, but I think we could get over 82 k.
太好了。
Beautiful.
好的。
Okay.
好吧，我们看看这一周能不能撑住。
Well, we'll see how that holds out over a week.
而且，这不是投资建议。
And, not financial advice.
我再强调一遍。
And I'll say it again.
听好了，各位。
Listen, guys.
约翰手里还攥着一大笔现金。
John is still sitting on a huge pile of cash.
咱们先看看你的现金吧，因为从百分比来看，你的现金其实变少了。
Let's say hold Let's check-in on your cash because your cash is actually gonna it's gonna be less now percentage wise.
之前是30%。
It was 30%.
现在是21%，因为你其他的持仓涨了很多。
Now it's 21% because the rest of your holdings have grown immensely.
约翰的投资组合这周就涨了大概2025%。
John's portfolio is up like 2025% this week alone.
如果你想看看里面有什么，更重要的是，你想联系约翰，问他任何问题。
If you wanna check out what is in there and also most importantly, you wanna get access to John, ask him any questions that you want.
在Milk Road Pro里看他的更新，他发得很勤。
See his updates in Milk Road Pro, which he posts very often.
这个周末他特别活跃，分享了他对比特币、以太坊还有其他很多事情的看法。
Was very active this weekend with thoughts about Bitcoin and and and Ethan and a lot of other stuff.
这就是Milk Road Pro的全部内容，价格将在明天晚上东部时间午夜上涨。
That is all Milk Road Pro, and the price is going up tomorrow night at midnight eastern.
所以趁现在这个价格赶紧入手。
So get in at this price.
这个价格以后不会再有了。
It'll never be this price again.
如果你锁定这个价格，你就永远享受这个价格。
And if you lock it in, you have it forever.
所以这对你来说很好。
So good for you.
如果你想在价格上涨60%之前入手的话。
If you wanna get in before it goes up 60%.
约翰，谢谢你的分享。
John, thank you for your thoughts.
和你聊天总是很愉快，我们下周在82千的时候见，伙计。
Always a pleasure to chat, and we'll see you next week at 82 k, man.
谢谢你，LG。
Thank you, LG.
我们很快再聊。
I'll talk to you soon.
感谢收听Milk Road。
Thanks for listening to Milk Road.
如果你喜欢这期节目，记得点赞和订阅。
If you enjoyed the show, make sure you like and subscribe.
如果你在市场上很难找到赢家，那正是Milk Road Pro的用武之地。
And if you're struggling to find winners in the market, that's exactly what Milk Road Pro is built for.
我们的分析师很早就发现了一些最大的赢家，Pro让你看到他们接下来买什么、每一笔交易，以及每个仓位背后的研究。
Our analysts have called some of the biggest winners early, and Pro lets you see what they're buying next, every trade they make, and the research behind every position.
点击下方链接查看Milk Road Pro。
Check out Milk Road Pro at the link below.
你在Milk Road上听到的所有内容仅供参考。
Everything you hear on Milk Road is for informational purposes only.
这些都是我们的个人观点，不是财务建议，而且我们可能持有我们讨论的一些投资。
These are our personal opinions, not financial advice, and we may own some of the investments we talk about.
一定要自己做研究，做出适合自己的决定。
Always do your own research and make the decisions that are right for you.
下次见。
See you next time.
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