杰弗里·肯德里克：随着华尔街向链上迁移，这4种山寨币可能会暴涨

说实话，就代币化这个论点来说，这已经是百分之百板上钉钉的事了。

Honestly, in terms of the tokenization thesis, that is a 100% locked in.

这项技术已经正式启动了，像渣打银行这样的传统金融机构，明天就要入场了。

The technology has left the gate and TradFi organizations like Standard Chartered and others are literally arriving tomorrow.

过去三个月里，渣打银行对Uniswap、Aave、Chainlink、Sky、Arbitrum等山寨币给出了25倍、40倍甚至70倍的价格目标预测。

Over the past three months, Standard Chartered has put out calls for 25 x, 40 x, and even 70 x price targets on Altcoins such as Uniswap, Aave, Chainlink, Sky, Arbitrum, and several others.

其中一些预测已经开始应验了。

Some of these calls are already starting to play out.

大家都在想，这是不是机构山寨币季的开始？

Everyone is wondering, is this the start of the institutional alt season?

关于这些，你需要了解些什么？

What do you need to know about all of this?

大家好，欢迎来到Milk Road加密频道，我们这档节目知道，没有什么比银行预测某个山寨币能涨40倍更能说明机构牛市来了。

Hello, and welcome to Milk Road crypto, the show that knows that nothing says institutional bull market like a bank calling for an altcoin to do a 40 x.

我是你们的主持人，John Gill。

I'm your host, John Gill.

今天，我们再次邀请Geoff Kendrick来到节目。

And today, we are welcoming back to the show, Geoff Kendrick.

Geoff是渣打银行数字资产研究部门的全球主管，他在2020年就启动了该行的加密货币研究业务。

Geoff is the global head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered where he launched the bank's crypto coverage back in 2020.

从那以后，他就成了整个华尔街在数字资产目标价方面最受关注、最受尊敬、也最为看涨的声音之一。

He has since then become one of the most watched, respected, and most bullish voices on all of Wall Street when it comes to price targets for digital assets.

如果你觉得不错，记得点赞和订阅。

If that sounds good to you, make sure you like and subscribe.

把这一期分享给会喜欢它的朋友吧。

Share this episode with somebody who's gonna enjoy it.

这期节目肯定会很有趣。

This is gonna be a fun episode.

我真的很期待这一期。

I'm really looking forward to this one.

Geoff特别棒。

Geoff is awesome.

提醒一下，今天的播客是免费的，这离不开我们优秀的合作伙伴Nexo的支持。Nexo是一个数字资产平台，让你在一个地方、一个账户里就能完成交易、赚取收益和借贷。

A reminder, our podcast today is free, and that would not be possible without our wonderful partners at Nexo, the digital asset platform that lets you trade, earn, and borrow all in one place, all in one account.

所以稍后在节目中会有更多关于他们的信息，敬请期待。

So keep an ear out for more information on them later in the episode.

现在，让我们欢迎Milk Road Crypto的“GOAT”（史上最伟大者）Geoff Kendrick回归节目。

But for now, welcome back to Milk Road Crypto, the GOAT.

Jeff。

Jeff.

您好，最近怎么样？

How are you, sir?

我很好，约翰。

I'm very well, John.

能回来真是太好了。

It's it's it's great to be back.

这是我的荣幸。

Pleasure is mine.

我……

I...

跟你聊天我总是特别兴奋，Jeff。你性格沉稳、做事有分寸，又在一家非常体面的银行工作，但你对数字资产的分析却总是极其看好。

I'm always excited to talk to you, Jeff, because you're such a, like, a calm and measured person who works at a very respectable bank, and yet your analysis on digital assets is always wildly bullish.

所以我觉得……

So I just think it's...

跟你聊天真的很棒，尤其是在这可能是一个新牛市起点的当下。

You're a wonderful person to talk to, especially here at what could be the start of a new bull market.

Jeff，你上次来的时候，我们聊了很多关于比特币和稳定币的话题。

Jeff, when you were here last, we talked a lot about Bitcoin and stable coins.

从那以后，你开始关注很多山寨币项目，就像你说的，Uniswap、Aave、Morpho、Chainlink等等。

Since then, you have started covering a lot of Altcoin projects, like I said, Uniswap, Aave, Morpho Chainlink, many others.

为什么是现在？

Why now?

发生了什么变化？

What changed?

那是什么促使你在报道重点上做出这样的转变呢？

And and what's caused this pivot in coverage for you?

主要有两个原因。

So there's essentially two things.

首先，比特币的价格稳定至关重要，不能下跌。

So it's clearly important for everything that Bitcoin does not go down.

所以……

So...

我觉得自从我上次来之后，我们可以得出结论：比特币不会跌了。

And I think since I was on last time, we can conclude now that Bitcoin is not going down.

所以我之前就已经看对了。

So I had called it earlier.

当时这么说其实有点冒险，我记得大概是六月份的时候，我开始说市场已经见底了。

It was a little risky at the time, I think in June, when I started calling that we'd seen a low.

但后来大概六个星期前，斯科特·贝森特出来表态说美国财政部会回购更多长期国债，虽然规模不算特别大。

But then when about six weeks or so ago now, Scott Bessent came out and said that US Treasury would buy more back end bonds, it's not a massive number.

但对我来说，这就是一个信号，说明这个周期正式结束了。

But that, for me, is the signal that the cycle is officially over.

每个周期我们都会看到这种情况，要么在高点，要么在低点。

So every cycle we see these sort of either at the highs or the lows.

在高点的时候，就是10月10号那次确认，比特币去年十月见顶了。

So at the high was the 10.10 confirmation that we'd seen a high in Bitcoin last October.

而Scott Besson大概六周前宣布的那个消息，对我来说就意味着，我们百分之百看到底部了。

And what Scott Besson announced six weeks or so ago for me says, we're 100% seeing the low.

所以现在我们可以真正开始拓宽视野了。

And so now we can really start to broaden our focus.

也就是说，不只是关注市场贝塔，

So it's not only about the market beta, I.

也就是

E.

比特币，而是开始思考在哪里能找到阿尔法。

Bitcoin, but start thinking about where can we find alpha.

所以这就是，可以说是第一个宏观要点。

So that's, let's say, big picture point number one.

第二个宏观要点是，在过去九到十二个月的低迷期里，背后其实一直在进行大量的建设。

Big picture point number two is that during the downturn of the previous nine or twelve months, there had been a lot of building going on the background.

所以大概六个月前吧，我写了一篇笔记，讲的是以太坊以及建立在以太坊上的其他东西，其实跟2021年科技泡沫破裂时的情况非常相似。后来我又回想了亚马逊的股价，当时从113美元跌到了6美元。我在那篇关于以太坊的笔记里引用了这个例子，因为当时贝索斯说过，我的股价在暴跌，但我所有的内部指标都在上升。

So I wrote a note, probably six months or so ago now, talking about Ethereum and therefore other things that have been built on Ethereum as actually quite similar to what happened in 2021 when the tech bubble burst at that time, and later on, reflected on the share price of Amazon, which at the time went from $113 down to $6 And I referred to that example with my ETH note, because at the time, Bezos said, well, my share price was collapsing, but all my internal metrics were going up.

我觉得加密货币领域也刚刚经历了同样的事情。

And I think that's what we've just gone through in crypto land as well.

所以你能看到其中一些指标开始显现出来了。

So you could see some of those metrics coming through.

而这些指标接下来会在山寨币领域发挥作用。

And where those metrics are now going to play out is in the Altcoins space.

特别是那些能从代币化革命中受益的山寨币。

And it's specifically the Altcoins that are going to benefit from a tokenization revolution.

所以这就是我一直关注的方向。

And so that's what I've been focused on.

我在渣打银行工作，能非常清楚地看到代币化革命将从传统金融领域爆发出来，因为像我们这样的银行目前正专注于此。

And with my seat in Standard Chartered, I can see very clearly how the tokenization revolution is going to come out of TradFi, because banks like ours are specifically focused on this today.

所以当你把这些被严重低估的代币价格重新评估一下，并且开始看到像 Robinhood Chain 这样直接的影响因素，以及它对 Arbitrum 和 Uniswap 等带来的意义时，你就能很容易地预见未来：那些体量相对较大、护城河较深、且能直接捕获价值的协议和 Layer 2（以 Arbitrum 为例）将会胜出。

And so when you price that in for a number of these tokens that have been ridiculously undervalued, and you're starting to see very direct measures like Robinhood chain and what that's meant for Arbitrum and Uniswap, for example, you can easily foresee a future where the relatively large, relatively long toothed protocols and Layer 2, in Arbitrum's case, that get fairly direct pass through of value or value capture should win.

所以我最近一直在关注这些项目。

So that's the ones that I've been writing on recently.

当然，你刚才已经列举了一些了。

Obviously, you listed a few of those, already.

Geoff，这个背景信息真的很有帮助，我觉得也很好地解释了现在的变化。

Geoff, that's really helpful context, and I think, makes a lot of sense on on the change here.

你最近还写过，加密行业正从‘收入无关紧要’转向‘收入至关重要’的世界。

You also wrote recently that crypto is moving from a world where revenue is not relevant to one where revenue is critical.

我很好奇你能不能展开讲讲，以及这如何影响你在研究中评估山寨币的价值。

And I'm curious if you could expand on that and how that factors into how you value Altcoins in in your research.

对。

Yes.

那我再拿亚马逊这个例子来说吧。

So I'll go back to the Amazon example.

之前的情况，我觉得这里很容易做个类比。

Before, I think it's very easy crossover here.

亚马逊刚上市那会儿，他们亏了很多钱。

So the in early days after Amazon listed, they were losing a lot of money.

贝索斯当时承受了来自记者的很大压力，说实话，那些人根本没预见到他中期会称霸世界的那一天。

Bezos would get a lot of pressure from journalists who, quite frankly, didn't foresee his medium term world dominance future.

所以他们会说，等等，你一周就亏好几百万美元。

So I would say, hang on, you're losing millions of millions of dollars a week.

你觉得这样还能撑多久……

How long do you think this can...

你还能继续这么搞下去吗？

You can keep this going for?

说实话，加密货币在过去十年左右的时间里，一直就是这种情况。

And quite frankly, crypto has been in that bucket for the past ten years or so.

之前有很多项目。

There's been lots of projects.

说实话，大多数都没什么起色。

Most of them, quite frankly, didn't do that much.

直到我们终于看到数字资产或更广泛的区块链技术开始取代现实世界中的某些东西，这确实是大约一年半前稳定币引发的趋势。特别是在美国，随着《Genius法案》等其他因素的推动，大家开始意识到，如果我们真的要替代现实世界的部分功能，而且现在传统金融也在参与，那么我们可能希望从一种收入和数据、透明度大多无关紧要的世界过渡过来——因为以前的大投资者是风投基金，他们看重的是那种中期的、充满想象力的机会，不需要当下的数据或收入；转而进入一个我们开始重视收入、需要分析师、能够建立DCF模型的世界，这也是我过去六个月一直在做的事情。

And it's only been when we finally started to see digital assets or blockchain technology more broadly replace some stuff from the real world, which is really what stablecoins kicked off eighteen months or so ago, particularly in The US with Genius Act and other, you started to think, well, actually, if we're going to replace stuff from the real world, and today TradFi is participating, we probably want to transition from a world where revenue and data and transparency is mostly irrelevant because the large investors are VC funds that would like sort of blue sky or white sky medium term opportunity set, but they don't need data or revenue today to one where we're now swapping over to wanting to have revenue, wanting to have analysts, wanting to be able to build DCF models, which is what I've been doing in the past six months.

所以，至少在我看来，我们正在走向正常化，也就是从‘收入不重要’逐渐转变为未来某个阶段会重视收入。

And so we're kind of normalizing, at least from my perspective, by going from revenue doesn't matter to at some stage in the future.

当然，我们现在还没到那一步。

We're not there yet, of course.

但将来某个时候，收入会成为唯一重要的指标，就像现在对‘科技七巨头’股票那样，坦白说就是这样，这和我几十年前提到的亚马逊例子情况不同。

But at some stage in the future, revenue will be the only thing that matters in the same way it is quite frankly now for the MAG seven stocks, right, which was not the case in my Amazon example a couple of decades ago.

我想先停一下，提醒大家，加密货币的牛市已经回来了。

Just wanna pause for a quick second to remind you all that the crypto bull market is back.

我已经把资金投入到我认为是山寨币、而且在这个牛市中表现会非常好的项目里。

I have been deploying capital into Altcoins that I think are gonna do very well, this bull market.

其中一些已经比我买入时涨了两倍多了。

Some of them are already up over two x from where I entered.

所以如果你想看看我的持仓、关注列表，还能在 Discord 上随时问我问题，赶紧加入 Milk Road Pro。

So if you wanna see what's in my portfolio, what's on my watch list, and have access to me in Discord to ask questions twenty four hours a day, join Milk Road Pro now.

链接就在描述里。

The link is in the description.

只要一美元。

It's just a dollar.

到时候见。

I'll see you there.

明白了。

Gotcha.

所以市场正在不断演变。

So the market is evolving.

这些资产的估值方式也在变化，这点也说得通。

The way these assets are valued is evolving, so that'll make sense there too.

在深入讨论这些具体资产和价格目标之前，我想聊聊推动你研究的大宏观因素。据我了解，你是这么看的。

Before we get into some of these specific assets and price targets, I wanna talk about sort of the macro things driving this for you in your research as I understand it.

支撑这一整套逻辑的核心，主要有两个重大押注。

There's two big bets that drive the thesis on all of these things.

第一个是代币化，以及代币化资产规模达到大约四万亿美元；其次是随之而来的去中心化金融（DeFi）的增长，你对这两块都非常看好。

The first is tokenization and tokenized assets getting to around $4,000,000,000,000 and then the the growth of DeFi along with that, which you're wildly bullish on.

不过，能不能详细说说你在这两个方向上的重磅布局？以及你对它们未来增长的预测是怎样的？

But talk to me about these two big big bets that you're making here and just what your your forecasted growth is on those.

百分之百。

100%.

大概一年半前，我预测稳定币的规模会达到两千亿美元，斯科特·贝塞特用的就是这个数字。

So about eighteen months ago, I put out a forecast for stablecoins that they'd get to $2,000,000,000,000, And that's the number that Scott Bessett uses.

美国财政部在2025年的报告里也引用了这个预测。

US Treasury picked up that forecast in 2025.

虽然过去这一年多稳定币的增长有些停滞，但我认为中期来看，它还是会增长到一个非常庞大的规模，远超一万亿，我觉得两千亿这个目标依然很有希望实现。

And although we've stalled in stablecoin uptake in the last twelve months or so, I think medium term will still go to a very, very large number, well north of a trillion, where $2,000,000,000,000 I think is still in play.

考虑到加密资产的表现，稳定币增长停滞是有道理的，但过去十二个月交易量一直在扩大。

It makes some sense given what crypto assets have done that stablecoin growth has stalled, but transactions have continued to expand in the last twelve months.

所以我认为中期来看，我们仍然可以达到非常大的稳定币流通量。

So I think medium term, we can still get to a very large number of stablecoins outstanding.

然后关于其他所有资产的代币化，我也有一个预测，就是达到2万亿美元。坦白说，这个数字在我看来太低了，而不是太高，尽管今天我们只有大约400亿美元。其中的组成部分主要是，最先开始的是代币化的美国国债，也就是代币化的货币市场基金。

And then on tokenization of everything else, I also have a forecast that we go to $2,000,000,000,000 And quite frankly, that number looks too low to me, not too high, even though today we're only about $40,000,000,000 And the components of that are primarily, the first one that started was tokenized T bills, so tokenized money market funds.

我可以告诉你，从我今年直接与美国企业财务主管的对话中，我今年已经进行了超过100次这样的对话。

And I can tell you from the direct conversations I've had with US corporate treasurers, of which I've had more than 100 this calendar year.

当我向他们介绍稳定币时，他们对提高资本效率感到兴奋，我。

When I tell them about stablecoins, they're excited to get capital efficiency, I.

更高效地将资金从美国转移到像乌兹别克斯坦或类似的国家，在传统渠道下，资金可能需要一周左右才能到账。

Move money more efficiently from The US to countries that look like Uzbekistan or equivalent, where in old fashioned rails it could have taken a week or so for the cash to arrive.

所以这对他们来说很有吸引力。

So that's interesting for them.

当我告诉他们富兰克林邓普顿的Benji产品可以提供日内收益时，他们更加兴奋了。

When I then tell them that Franklin Templeton's Benji product can give them intraday yield, they get even more excited.

所以他们可以用稳定币提高资金效率，然后通过代币化货币市场基金获得更高的收益。

So they can be capital efficient with stables, and then they can get more yield using tokenized money market funds.

对我来说，稳定币交易增长和代币化货币市场基金之间的联系是非常线性的。

So for me, the link between stablecoin transaction growth and tokenized money market funds is very linear.

如果你想想未来几年，一部分交易会转移到链上，我觉得可能只有10%左右的交易会在链上进行，那么也需要有10%的货币市场基金在链上。

And if you think about over the next few years, a chunk of transactions going on chain, and I think maybe only 10%, something like that, of transactions are on chain in the next few years, then you need to have 10% of the money market fund on chain as well.

因为在我的企业财库例子中，他们会想要使用稳定币。

Because in my corporate treasury example, they'll want to use stablecoins.

他们宁愿不把资金放回链下的传统货币基金，而是希望把现金留在链上。

And rather than going back into slow money market funds off chain, they'll want to keep cash on chain.

美国货币基金市场里哪怕只有10%的规模，光这一项就能达到7500亿美元。

And 10% of the money market fund space in The US would give you $750,000,000,000 just in that category.

所以对我来说，这部分的增长看起来相对线性。

So that for me seems, let's say, relatively linear.

而更令人兴奋的，坦白说，是最近股票方面的故事。

And then even more excitingly, quite frankly, has been the equity story recently.

所以，当然，Robinhood 和其他几个项目已经在做股票这块了。

So, of course, there's been Robinhood and a few other projects on equities.

但几周前，Clarity Act 的终结辩论投票在周二没通过，结果周四 SEC 就出来给了代币化股票一个五年的豁免期，就在美国。

But then a couple of weeks ago, after Clarity Act cloture vote failed on a Tuesday, on the Thursday, SEC came out and gave this five year exemption for tokenized equities in The US.

所以对我来说，这就打开了通往巨大市值潜力的大门。

So that for me opens the floodgates to a massive market cap potential.

美国股市的规模是六十万亿美元。

US equities are $60,000,000,000,000.

所以你只需要其中很小一部分被代币化，就能让代币化股票的规模大幅增长。

So you only need a very small amount of that to be tokenized to get a massive increase in tokenized equities.

对我来说，光这一块未来几年就可能再增加一万亿美元。

And that for me could be another trillion dollars on its own in the next couple of years.

然后还有代币化大宗商品之类的。

Then you have tokenized commodities, etcetera.

所以还是那句话，说实话，关于我那份代币化现实世界资产的报告——我给出的预测是两万亿——我收到的唯一反馈就是这个数字太低了，而不是太高。

So again, quite frankly, the only feedback I get on my tokenized real world asset piece, which I've put out a forecast of 2,000,000,000,000, is that that number is too low, not too high.

而且我觉得像SEC豁免这类事情，目前更加巩固了这个趋势。

And things like the SEC exemption, I think, solidify that for now.

所以这是其中的一个方面。

So that's one bucket.

把一切资产代币化，这个领域非常令人兴奋。

Tokenize everything, very exciting space.

另一个方面是，今天如果你去看DeFi Llama这类平台，就能看到链上资产有多大比例被实际用在DeFi里。

And the other bucket is today, if you have a look on the likes of DeFi Llama, you can see what percentage of assets that are on chain are actively used in DeFi.

而且这个比例非常小，具体要看哪种资产类别。

And that percentage is very small, on which asset class you look like.

基本上都是个位数。

It's basically always single digits.

所以我觉得随着时间的推移——而且我在传统金融领域也聊过一些——他们说，如果代币化的货币市场基金能支付4%的收益，那为什么不做到7%呢？多出来的3%可以来自比如Aave或Morpho。

So I think over time, and I've had some conversations in TradFi that say, well, if there's a tokenized money market fund that pays 4%, why not make that seven percent, where the extra 3% comes from Aave or Morpho, for example.

所以既然我已经有过这样的对话，我觉得有理由说，随着时间推移，会有更多这类资产进入DeFi。

So if I've had some conversations like that, then I think it's fair to say over time, more of those assets will make their way into DeFi.

所以就不是个位数的水平了，能到30%甚至更多。

And so instead of single digits, you get to 30% or plus.

所以如果这两块加在一起，链上资产投入到DeFi的总量会有巨大的倍数增长，未来几年50倍算是一个基准，甚至可能到几百倍，具体要看有多少比例进入DeFi。

And so if you add the two together, the amount of assets that are on chain and deployed in DeFi has a massive multiple, or like 50x over the next few years being the base or perhaps as high as hundreds of times, depending on that second percentage going into DeFi.

所以对我来说，这意味着你该开始去关注那些DeFi协议，或者Layer 2，比如Arbitrum，它们有可能承接其中一部分资金流。

And so for me, that means you want to then start thinking about the DeFi protocols or Layer 2 and Arbitrum's case that perhaps could capture a chunk of that flow.

而接下来最令人兴奋的是，这些项目大多能以非常线性的方式扩展，因为区块链的架构就是这样的。

And most of those projects, which is the next exciting part, can scale in a very linear fashion because of how blockchain is set up.

所以它们的扩展会比链下的传统业务直接得多。

So they can scale much more directly than off chain businesses would otherwise do.

Geoff，你说的这些对我来说实在太有道理了，谢谢你讲得这么清楚、这么详细。

Geoff, this all just makes ridiculously good sense to me, but thank you for laying that out in such clear detail.

我现在想聊聊这些山寨币。

I wanna talk about some of these Altcoins now.

你在六月熊市跌到谷底的时候，给Uniswap定了一个年底6.5美元的目标价。

You put a $6.50 year end target on Uniswap back in June during the the depths of the bear market.

你当时做那个预测的时候，价格还不到3美元。

It was under $3 at the time you made that prediction.

现在已经远远超过那个价了。

It's already blown way past that.

八月份你写道——原话是，我很喜欢这句——我担心我对Uniswap在2030年定下的100美元目标价太低了。

In August, you wrote quote, and I love this line, I fear that my 2,030 target of $100 on Uniswap is too low.

我想听听你现在对Uniswap的最新看法，以及这个代币、这个项目在你那套投资逻辑里处在什么位置。

I'd love to hear your updated thoughts on Uniswap here and how that token, that project sits in this thesis for you.

100美元。

A 100.

Uniswap是我做的第一个深度研究项目，当时有几个原因。

So Uniswap was the first of these deep dives that I did, and that was for a few reasons.

它有非常直接的价值捕获能力。

So it has extremely direct value capture.

所以去年12月，Uniswap终于——这件事之前显然已经讨论了一阵子了——终于打开了费用开关。

So last December, Uniswap finally, there'd obviously been discussion about this for a but finally turned on the fee switch.

头几个月发生了不少事。

First few months, a lot happened.

但到了夏天，尤其是Robinhood链对回购和销毁的影响，大家在网上那些数据面板上都能看到，回购和销毁的量涨得非常猛。

But then when we got into the summer, and particularly with the Robinhood chain implications for buyback and burn, and people can see this on dashboards online, the amount of buyback and burn has increased dramatically.

所以我考虑回购和销毁的时候，会看按年化算能烧掉多少比例的代币，而且这个比例还得是可持续的。

So I think about buyback and burn in terms of what percentage of tokens could be burnt in an annualized sense and have that be sustainable.

所以如果Uniswap今天还在3美元以下，而不是9美元以上，那你每个月烧的量年化下来就是12%到15%。

So if Uniswap today was still below $3 rather than above $9, then you'd be burning between 1215% annualized every month.

所以要想把这个账算平，唯一的办法就是币价得涨，因为对一个像Uniswap这样已经存在快十年的优质项目来说，烧掉12%到15%显然是不可持续的。

So the only way to square this circle is for the token price to go up because clearly it'd be unsustainable to burn 12 to 15% of a project like Uniswap, which is a quality project that's been around for the best part of ten years.

所以币价必须得涨。

So token price must go up.

这就是我理解价值捕获逻辑的方式——如果某个东西有实际意义，而且像Uniswap这样手续费开关已经打开了，销毁机制在运行。

And so that's how I'm thinking about the value capture thesis is if something means and you have in Uniswap's case fee switch turned on, so you have the burn active.

那会怎么样……

What will that...

那现在这个销毁项目对年化销毁率意味着什么？

What will the current burn project mean for annualized burn?

看起来是因为Uniswap的销毁率现在已经稳定在3%到4%左右了，我

It seems because Uniswap's burn has stabilized around the three to 4% now, I.

就是说

E.

价格翻了三倍，所以从原来的12%降到了大概4%。

Price tripled, So instead of being 12%, it's down to 4% roughly.

看起来这就是市场的均衡状态。

It seems that that's the market equilibrium.

不过这个论点还不太成熟，因为我手头就只有这一个数据点。

Now, this is a relatively unproven thesis, given I have literally one data point here.

但我觉得往后看，对其他项目来说这也是个值得考虑的思路。

But I think that's a reasonable thing to think about going forward for the others as well.

另外我写过的那些项目稍微没那么直接，但我觉得随着时间推移，也可以用同样的逻辑去套。

Now, the other projects I've written about are slightly less direct, but I think over time, you can feed them into the same sort of logic.

所以如果活动量增加，在Uniswap的情况下你今天就会销毁代币，或者在其他一些项目里可能是以后销毁，你就可以开始用类似现金流折现的方式来考虑这件事，或者在任何一个时间点，销毁多少代币、按什么比例销毁才算合理。

So if you get more activity, you burn tokens today in Uniswap's case or perhaps later in some of the other projects, you can start to think about that in a sort of DCF measure or how many tokens in a percentage would it be reasonable to burn at any given moment.

好的。

Okay.

我想问一个问题，就是你怎么看Uniswap从现在到2030年的护城河，因为很明显，你知道，很多交易量都来自Robinhood那条链，但总是有风险，就是另一个去中心化交易所可能会来抢走那些交易量、那部分市场份额。

I wanna just ask a question around your view on Uniswap's moat between now and 2030 because, obviously, you know, a lot of this volume has come from the the Robinhood chain, but there's always a risk that another DEX could could come and get that volume, that market share.

你怎么看这个价值主张，就是Uniswap从现在到2030年要守住什么样的护城河，才能达到那个代币100美元的估值目标？

How do you think about, like, the the value proposition in terms of the moat that Uniswap has to defend between now and 2030 to sort of get to that $100 token valuation target?

当然。

For sure.

这里一个很好的点是，流动性往往会留住流动性。

So the good point here is that liquidity tends to be kept liquidity.

所以Uniswap的起点，而且它已经存在了将近十年，意味着现在这确实是它的市场，只有它自己可能丢掉。

So Uniswap starting point, and again, being around for best part of a decade, meant that it really is their market to lose now.

所以这些年来，很明显有很多竞争对手出现，最近的一个就是Base上的Aerodrome。

So over the years, obviously, you've had a lot of competition come, the most recent being Aerodrome on base.

你看这些例子，包括Aerodrome在内，基本都是花钱吸引用户转过来的。

Now, in most of those examples, including the Aerodrome one, they paid users to switch.

而且回顾历史，关键在于一旦切换的麻烦消失，人们往往会选择把资产转回Uniswap。

And the key when you look back in history is that when the pain to switch stops, people tend to take their assets back to Uniswap.

所以在我看来，这是一个非常非常强烈的信号，说明Uniswap更可能成为中期的赢家。

So that for me is a very, very strong sign that Uniswap is more likely to be the medium term winner.

而且每个类别可能都会出现一个大的赢家，就指数类而言，我觉得Uniswap最有可能。

And it's probable that you will have one large winner in each category, where for me indexes, Uniswap looks the most likely.

第二个原因是，想想代币化股票，还有更广义的代币化真实世界资产，它们会慢慢上链，进入像Uniswap这样的流动性池。这里面其实有个相对简单的逻辑：传统金融自己不太搞得定，但希望有人能帮上一把。

The second is when you think about tokenized equities and tokenized RWAs more broadly coming onchain and going into liquidity pools like Uniswap, there's a relatively simple story here that TradFi can't quite do themselves, but would like assistance in.

所以，想想那些相关性高的交易对。

So think about correlated pairs.

随着时间推移，可能会出现像原油和石油公司这样的配对。

So over time, you probably end up with the likes of oil versus oil companies.

现在就已经有QQQ和英伟达的配对。

You today have QQQ versus Nvidia.

所以这类不需要像传统金融那样必须换回美元的关联资产对，非常适合Uniswap这种去中心化交易所的模式，尤其是过去一年多来它经历了一大波升级之后。

So those kind of correlated pairs that don't need to go back to dollars in the way TradFi do are very, very suited to the style of decentralized exchange that Uniswap is, especially under chunk of the upgrades over the past twelve months or so.

再说一遍，我觉得Uniswap身上汇聚了好几个有利因素：大概十年的历史积累、流动性吸引流动性，以及在代币化资产上链时恰到好处的升级，从而支持那些关联资产对的运行。

So again, I think you have this confluence of factors for Uniswap, the ten year history roughly, the liquidity begetting liquidity, the upgrade at the right time when tokenized assets come on chain to enable things like those correlated pairs.

而且你现在已经能看到不少这样的迹象了。

And you're already seeing quite a lot of that.

我建议大家可以去Uniswap官网看看，搞清楚这些交易对到底是怎么分布的。

I would say that people should have a look on the Uniswap website and see exactly where the pairs are going.

其实它有时候还能反映出市场细节里正在发生的一些有意思的情况。

It actually sometimes tells interesting things about what's happening in market detail as well.

所以对我来说，再加上过去几个月启动的代币销毁回购计划，我有理由相信Uniswap在未来几年里会继续主导这个领域。

So for me, that's probably enough, as well as the token burn back program that's been kicking in the past few months to see Uniswap continue to dominate that space for the next few years.

再说一遍，100美元的目标价可能定低了，毕竟我们已经远远超过了之前非常看好的2026年目标价。

Again, that $100 target may well be too low, given we've already bled well through my previously very bullish 2026 target.

谢谢你的补充说明。

Thank you for that context.

我觉得这个总结得很到位。

And I think that that that summarizes it well.

有很多因素对他们有利，这个领域基本上是他们的天下，除非自己搞砸。

There's a lot of things working in their favor, and it's sort of their their space to lose there.

我想问一下另一个项目。

I wanna ask about another project.

Aave是你最大胆的预测之一。

Aave was one of your boldest calls.

我记得你给Aave定的目标是2030年达到3500美元。

I think you put a target of $3,500 on Aave by 2030.

我记得它现在的价格大概在……

I think it's trading around...

可能我的数据有点过时了，但大概在150到170左右，差不多这个区间。

I could be a little bit out of date here, but around a 150, 170, somewhere in that neighborhood here.

这周价格一直在小幅波动。

It's been fluctuating a little bit this week.

不过你是在Aave协议遭到3亿美元漏洞攻击之后没多久就做出了这个预测，这个大胆的判断。

But you made this prediction, this bold call on Aave just a very short period after there was a $300,000,000 exploit on the protocol.

显然，Kelpdau 是那个那个那个……

Obviously, Kelpdau was the the the...

就是漏洞发生的地方，而不是直接在Aave上。

Where the exploit happened, not on Aave directly.

那你跟我聊聊你对Aave前景的看法。

But talk to me about this outlook on Aave.

这个估值是从哪来的？而且为什么在发生攻击之后你还这么看好这个协议？

Where's this valuation coming from, and and why are you so bullish on this protocol despite the hack?

对我来说，这次黑客攻击有意思的地方在于之后的反应，特别是来自社区的回应。

So the interesting thing about the hack for me was the response afterwards, both from the community.

就是他们筹集了大约3亿美元，主要是以ETH的形式，这让我想起过去传统金融机构里发生过的一些事情。

So the raising of $300,000,000 roughly in primarily in ETH, which reminded me of some of the things that has happened in traditional financial institutions in the past.

在那种情况下，受影响的市场主要参与者，或者说如果Aave继续受阻就会间接受影响的人，基本上都团结到一起了，因为当时没有监管。

I in that case, the major players in the market that was affected or let's say would have been affected indirectly if Aave continued to be hampered were basically came together because there was no regulation.

所以在我看来，这可以说是整个行业或者说这个资产类别走向成熟的一个时刻，我之前在Treadfly也见过类似的情况。

And so it felt to me like, let's say, a maturing moment for the industry or asset class more broadly that I have seen in Treadfly previously.

所以对我来说，这是第一个好消息。

So for me, that was positive news number one.

第二个好消息是，在那之后，Stani调整了一些风险指标，这对我来说是非常非常看涨的信号。

Positive news number two was that afterwards, Stani adjusted some of the risk metrics, which was super, super bullish for me.

正因为这两件事，Aave上的流动性只用了两三周就恢复了，这是一个非常非常积极的信号。

And because of those two things, it only took a couple of weeks for liquidity to come back on Aave, which was a very, very positive sign.

而且考虑到这个项目的长期存续能力，因为站在Treadfly的角度来看，我觉得长期存续能力很重要。

And given again, the longevity of the project, because sitting in a trad fire seat, I think longevity matters.

实际上像Kelp Tau这种事件，某种程度上反而让事件之后进入的资金变得更安全了。

Actually issues like the Kelp Tau incident in some ways make the post incident reality safer for money that's going in.

所以我其实并不介意看到这样的应对方式。

So I actually didn't mind seeing the response.

我相信对于在ARB深入了解情况的人来说，四五月份那件事发生后的几周确实很难熬，但实际上他们恢复得相当不错。

I'm sure for those in the weeds at ARB, they were terrible few weeks around that incident in April May, but actually, they've bounced back pretty well.

而且可以说，我对ARB近期的预测也开始显得有点太低了。

And it's fair to say that my forecast in the near term for ARB is also starting to look a little bit too low.

我原本预计这个自然年结束时会到180美元，而现在已经170美元了。

So I've got $180 by the end of this calendar and we're at $170 today.

所以很明显，今天行情相当不错。

So obviously having had quite a good day today.

所以对我来说，其实还是跟Uniswap的情况一样，我觉得Aave会主导或者继续主导这个领域，尽管四月份出了那个CALPDAU的问题。

So for me, actually, again, like the Uniswap story, Aave, think, will dominate or continue to dominate despite that CALPDAU issue in April.

我们就叫它链上银行这个赛道吧。

Let's call it the onchain banking space.

去年巅峰的时候，Aave如果跟其他美国银行放在一起排名，大概能排到第三十五大银行。

So at the peak last year, Aave, when ranked against other US banks, would have been about the thirty fifth largest bank.

有人专门建了个网站来做这个排名。

Someone set up a website to do exactly that ranking.

显然，现在因为市值下跌，排名已经降下来了。

Obviously, it's lower now given the market cap decline.

但这是一个体量很大的项目，存在时间也很长，基本上主导了链上银行这个领域。

But it's a large project that's been around a long time that dominates essentially an onchain bank space.

再说一遍，在这个领域里，我觉得最终很可能只会剩下一个赢家。

And again, in that space, for me, it's likely you'll have one winner.

Aave 是个很独特的存在，跟我同样看好的 Morpho 完全不同，我看好它们的原因也不一样。

And Aave is a unique beast and very different to Morpho that I'm also bullish on for different reasons.

好，那我们来聊聊 Morpho。

Well, let's talk about Morpho.

你最初给 Morpho 的目标价是60美元。

You started covering Morpho with a $60 price target.

跟今年早些时候你的其他预测相比，这个表现有点落后了。

That has lagged some of your other calls this year so far.

来聊聊这个借贷市场吧。

Talk to me about this lending market.

你觉得这会是赢家通吃的局面吗？

Do you think this is gonna be winner take most, winner take all?

那你觉得有必要同时存在Aave和Morpho吗？

And do you think that there's a need to have an Aave and a Morpho?

它们能一起运作吗？

Can they function together?

会不会其中一个占主导？

Does one dominate the other?

你对这个怎么看？

What's your outlook on that?

我觉得它们是两种完全不同的东西。

So I see them as quite different animals.

只是因为行业太新了，我们才特别想...

It's only really that this industry is so nascent that we really like...

所以有很多评论把Aave和Morpho放在一起比较。

So there's a lot of commentary comparing Aave and Morpho.

如果放到传统金融里，我会说Aave就是银行。

If this is TradFi, I would say Aave is bank.

很多像渣打这样的银行，赚钱的方式就是吸收存款，然后以更高的利率放贷出去。

So a lot of Standard Chartered, banks make money by getting in deposits and lending at a higher interest rate.

所以本质上，Aave做的就是这件事。

So essentially exactly what Aave does.

这就是最基础的银行业务模式。

In the most basic form of banking.

而Morpho更像是一个平台，或者说是一个面向资产管理者的平台。

Morpho is more like a platform or let's say a platform for asset managers.

有点像贝莱德，贝莱德做的事情稍微有些不同。

So kind of like a BlackRock, like BlackRock do slightly different things.

但简单来说，Morpho就是贝莱德，Aave就是渣打，就是它们最基础的那种形态。

But let's just say Morpho is BlackRock and Aave is Standard Chartered too, like in their sort of most simple form.

这样的话，我会说，渣打和贝莱德是非常非常不同的两类东西。

In that case, I would say, Standard Chartered and Blackrock are very, very different animals.

两者都可以做得很成功。

Both can be successful.

其实，两者可以合作，它们能以各种方式合作。

In fact, both can cooperate, they can kind of cooperate in various ways.

所以有一些交叉的地方，但我觉得Volt产品，或者特别是Morpho，让它们和所谓的个人借贷市场有了显著的区别。

So there are some crossovers, but I think the Volt product, or Morpho in particular, kind of differentiates them significantly from the, let's say, individual lending market.

而且实际上，当你排除掉……

And actually, when you exclude the...

当你只看借贷产品和Morpho，把它和Aave比较时，Aave要大得多。

When you just look at the lending product and Morpho and compare that to Aave, Aave is way bigger.

所以仅仅在那个特定的狭窄领域。

So just in that specific narrow piece.

但实际上在Morpho上，是那个金库产品，对我来说更有意思。

But actually on Morpho, it's the vault product, which is much more interesting to me.

关于Morpho另一个有趣的点是，投资者基础不同。

Another interesting point about Morpho is the investor base is different.

所以Aave主要是由散户资金驱动的。

So Aave is mostly driven by retail flow.

所以它往往表现得像是以太坊的一个高贝塔版本，情况大概就是这样。

And so it tends to be a much higher beta version of Ethereum is sort of how things go.

然后你还能看到Aave那边发生的一些细节，深入到具体的东西。

And then you have some of the detail in the weeds of what's happening at Aave as well.

Morpho的持有者主要是风投基金。

Morpho is mostly held by VC funds.

而且他们往往不太一样，可以说他们资金更雄厚。

And they tend to be less, like they have deeper pockets, if you like.

所以这个代币往往波动更小，流动性也更差。

And so the token tends to be both less volatile and less liquid.

正因为如此，从上涨空间来看，最近这段时间它的波动可能更小。

And so because of that on the top side, it's probably less volatile on the top side in the last little while.

但我觉得中期来看，我会把Morpho放在非常有可能赢的那个链上资产管理平台的位置上，这就是我对Morpho的看法。

But I think medium term, I'll put Morpho in the very likely to win that onchain asset management platform is how I think about Morpho.

好的。

Okay.

那个……

That...

这两个之间的区别很有帮助。

That's a helpful distinction between those two there.

而且，我觉得这些东西很多都能很好地配合，所以很感谢你把这些背景和细节讲清楚。

And, you know, I think a lot of these things can do very well together, so I appreciate the context on that and the subtlety.

说到银行业，你之前把 Sky Protocol 称为 DeFi 的联邦银行，我很想听听你现在对 Sky 的最新看法，以及这个说法到底是什么意思。

Speaking of banking, you have called Sky Protocol DeFi's Federal Bank, and I would love to hear your updated thoughts on Sky and and what that means exactly.

DeFi 的联邦银行是什么？为什么 Sky 能配得上这个标签？

What is DeFi's Federal Bank, and why does Sky fit that label?

对，对于之前没了解过 Sky 的人来说，大多数人应该都知道它以前叫 MakerDAO。

Yeah, so for those that haven't looked at Sky before, obviously, most people probably know it's the old Make A Dow.

所以，自从大概两年前从 MakerDAO 更名为 Sky 以来，底层的或者说细节上的情况有点复杂，这部分我得慢慢讲。

So since rebranding roughly two years ago now from Make A Dow to Sky, What's happening underneath or in the detail is a little complicated, so I'm gonna have to go slow on this part.

Sky 自己处在中心位置，然后他们把相当于批发银行的角色外包了出去。

Sky itself sits in the center, and then they have outsourced the equivalent of wholesale banks.

所以你在现实世界里想一想，美国有美联储。

So if you think about it in the real world, we have the Federal Reserve in The US.

他们制定规则让银行遵守。

They make rules for banks to abide by.

他们印钞，把钱投进系统里。

They print money and they put money into the system.

Sky制定规则，这些外包公司必须遵守，目前已经有几家规模不小的了。

Sky makes rules that these outsourced companies, and there's a few that are sizable so far, need to stand by.

他们印的钱，具体来说就是USDS。

And they print the money, which in this case is USDS.

他们也还保留了MakerDAO时代的老Dai。

They still have the old die from the maker DAO days as well.

但关键在于，他们激励系统里的银行或类银行机构增加USDS的流通量。

But the point here is that they incentivize the banks or banks equivalent in the system to increase the amount of USDS outstanding.

所以这些银行以相当于批发融资利率的成本借入USDS，这和现实世界里的做法一模一样，只不过这里是从中心化的Sky借，有点像向美联储借钱。

So the banks borrow USDS at the equivalent of a wholesale funding rate, which is exactly what happens in the real world from, in this case, the central Sky, which is sort of like borrowing from the Fed.

然后他们把它投到收益产品和其他地方去。

And then they put it out into yield products and other.

所以时间一长，它确实看起来有点像联邦银行体系。

So over time, it does kind of look like a federal bank system.

对Sky来说，关键就在于随着时间推移，你手里的USDS会越来越多。

Now the key for Sky is that you end up with more USDS over time.

Sky就是这么赚钱的。

That's how Sky makes money.

我觉得稳定币这个领域，我非常看好，而带收益的稳定币领域，也就是Sky所在的这个赛道，我认为随着时间推移会更被看好。

And I think the stablecoin space, I'm very bullish on, and the yield bearing stablecoin space, which is where Sky sits, I think over time will be even more bullish.

我认为长期来看，带收益的稳定币在市值上会超过像USDC和USDT这种不带收益的稳定币。

I over time yield bearing stables will outpace non yield bearing stables like USDC and USDT in terms of market cap.

所以如果你看好稳定币，那你就一定得看好Sky。

So if you're bullish on stablecoins, then you must be bullish on Sky.

这里还有一个技术层面的点，就是说你现在会把一定比例的价值传递给代币持有者。

There's also a technical point here, which means that you today pass through a certain percentage of value to token holders.

在Sky这个例子里，一部分是通过代币回购和销毁，但主要还是靠质押收益。

In Sky's case, it's partly with token buyback and burn, but it's mostly via staking yield.

大概八到九个月之后，他们积累的收益或者多余的现金会足够多，到时候回馈给持币人的比例会翻倍。

In eight or nine months from now, they will have built up enough stockpile of returns over time or excess cash that that that amount will double in terms of pass through.

所以对Sky来说，如果代币价格不涨，那就意味着质押收益率会翻倍。

So in Sky's case, if the token price doesn't go up, that would imply that the staking yield doubles.

这样一来，估计就会有人为了质押收益去买这个代币。

And so then you'll probably get individuals buying the token for the staking yield.

所以，再次抱歉。

So again, apologies.

这个事儿相对来说比较复杂，就是你……

It's a relatively complex story where you...

如果你能获得更多的USDS，也就是说如果你看好稳定币——你大概率会看好的——那随着时间推移，你就能把翻倍的价值回馈给持币人。

If you get more USDS, so if you're bullish on stablecoins, probably think you will, and over time, you'll be able to pass through double the amount of value to token holders.

昨天在这个频道上，我采访了Greg Fibas，他是Sky的资本市场负责人，还有Max Barris，他是Galaxy的借贷业务负责人，聊的是Galaxy花了一亿美元购买sUSDS这件事。

Yesterday on this channel, I interviewed Greg Fibas, who is the the head of, capital markets at Sky and Max Barris, who's the head of lending at Galaxy about a $100,000,000 purchase of s u s t s that Galaxy did.

所以如果有人错过了那期，我建议你们去了解一下，这部分虽然确实挺复杂的，但它是DeFi银行业里正在增长的一个重要领域。

So if anybody missed that, I want more detail on this admittedly complicated but important part of DeFi's banking industry that's growing.

一定要去看看那期节目。

Definitely check out that episode.

Jeff，我想让你再稍微讲清楚一点你刚才说的最后那部分，因为上周我请了另一位Greg，就是Tag Capital的Greg来上节目，他说他非常看好Sky，而且他们刚经历了一个最好的季度之一，收入达到了一亿美元，但只有几百万用于代币回购。

Jeff, I wanna just get a little bit more clarity on the last part of that you talked about because I had another Greg, Greg from Tag Capital on the channel last week, and he talked about how he's very bullish on Sky, but, you know, they had one of their best quarters ever, a $100,000,000 of revenue, but only a few million is going to token buybacks.

你能不能跟我聊聊你对Sky代币的看法，它是怎么捕获价值的，价值来源有哪些，以及你对它的前景怎么看？

Can you talk to me a little bit about your, like, outlook on the Sky token, how that captures value, what are the sources there, and just the outlook on that for you?

好的。

Yes.

关于价值传递，我觉得有几种方式可以实现。

So so in value pass through, I guess, there's a few ways to do it.

最简单的两种方式就是代币回购和销毁。

The two simple ways are token buyback and burn.

拿我举的Uniswap的例子来说，他们做的就是这些。

So my Uniswap example, that's all they're doing.

第二种方式就是提供质押收益。

The second is to have staking yield.

不过，不同项目对这个做法的选择也各不相同。

Now different projects have chosen different versions of that story.

Sky呢，他们实际上选择的主要是质押收益。

In Sky's case, they've actually chosen it to be mostly in staking yield.

所以分给用户的还是同样的现金流。

So it's the same cash that's going to get passed on.

但大部分不是用来回购和销毁代币，而是流向了质押收益。

But instead of being primarily for token buyback and burn, vast majority goes to staking yield.

所以我觉得这就像是一家链下公司，要么回购自己的股票，要么派发大额股息。

So I guess it's the same as if you think about an off chain corporate, they could either buy back their own equity or they could pay large dividends.

对Sky来说，基本上他们的机制就是支付大额股息。

In Sky's case, essentially, they're programmed to pay large dividends.

所以如果他们赚得更多，你就能拿到非常丰厚的分红。

And so if they make more money, you get a very large dividend.

在链下的世界里，如果你的股息率大幅上升，那大概率人们就会去买这个代币。

And in off chain land, if your dividend percentage goes up massively, probably people will buy the token.

而随着时间推移，这个百分比自然就会降下来。

And over time, the percentage will therefore fall.

所以我觉得在Sky这个项目里，看待这种价值传导的方式，就有点像看一只分红股。

And so I think in Sky, that's the way to view the pass through is kind of like a dividend stock.

他们基本上就是这么设计的，只是在边缘上做了一点点回购。

That's essentially how they've set it up with a little bit of buyback on the edge.

所以这只是另一种模式，稍微复杂一点。

So it's just a different model, slightly more complicated.

目前还不太清楚，在区块链领域里哪种模式最终会占主导。

It's not clear, I guess, yet, which model is going to dominate in blockchain space.

可能就像链下的股票市场一样，最后会是一种混合的形式。

Probably like in equities off chain, you'll end up with a combination.

所以有些项目可能什么都不做。

So you'll have some that do nothing.

他们就把所有……

They just keep all...

把所有利润都留在留存收益里。

Keep everything in retained earnings.

想想早期的亚马逊。

So think about Amazon early days.

贝索斯当年说的就是这个意思。

That's exactly what Bezos would would have said.

有些是高股息股，比如公用事业股，还有一些也属于这一类。

You'll have some that are high dividend stocks, utilities, and other kind of fall into that category.

然后还有些是高回购股，你也知道，过去几年股票市场上回购特别多。

And then you might have some that are high buyback stocks, which, you know, we've seen a lot of buybacks in equity land in the past few years.

所以就是不同的情况用不同的策略吧。

So different horses for the different courses, if you like.

杰夫，这一点又帮了大忙，非常感谢。

Once again, Geoff, very helpful on that.