杰米·考茨：比特币即将突破10万美元——但真正的机会藏在这里

我只是觉得现在有更大的机会，都是正当的机会，现金流回暖和资本纪律都发生在比特币之外。

I just think that there is greater opportunities now, legitimate opportunities with cash flow regeneration and capital discipline happening outside of Bitcoin.

新代币的供应量已经降到了历史最低水平。

New token supply has hit the lowest level on record.

与此同时，加密协议在过去一年里向其代币持有者支付了将近二十亿美元。

At the same time, crypto protocols have paid out almost $2,000,000,000 to their token holders across this prior year.

比特币在八万这个价位上卡住了。

Bitcoin is stalling out here in the eighties.

我们是正要迎来史上最大的牛市，还是会在又一次熊市的回撤中崩盘？

Are we about to break out into the biggest bull run-in history or break down in another bear market rejection?

投资者需要了解其中的哪些信息？

And what do investors need to know about all of this?

大家好，欢迎收听《奶路加密》，这档节目让我们恨不得把之前讨论《清晰度法案》的时间全买回来。

Hello, and welcome to Milk Road Crypto, the show that wishes that we could buy back all the time we spent talking about the Clarity Act.

我是主持人约翰·吉伦。

I'm your host, John Gillen.

今天是10月21日，星期三，我们邀请到了杰米·考茨。

Today is Wednesday, October 21, and we are joined by Jamie Coutts.

杰米是Real Vision的首席加密货币分析师，也是Helios Analytics的创始人。

Jamie is the chief crypto analyst at Real Vision and the founder of Helios Analytics.

他刚刚在新加坡的Token 2049大会上展示了他的“回报时代”研究。

He has just presented his Payback Era research at Token twenty forty nine in Singapore.

我们将深入了解这些内容。

We're gonna get a deep dive on what all of that is.

杰米是加密货币领域最优秀的分析师之一。

Jamie is one of the best analysts in all of crypto.

所以这期节目一定会很精彩。

So this is gonna be a great episode.

如果你喜欢这期节目，记得点赞和订阅。

If that sounds good to you, make sure you like and subscribe.

把这期节目分享给会喜欢它的人。

Share this episode with somebody who's gonna enjoy it.

提醒一下，我们今天的播客是免费的，这要感谢我们的合作伙伴Alumni Ventures，他们让合格投资者能够与顶级风投一起接触私募市场的投资机会。

A reminder, our podcast today is free and that would not be possible without our wonderful partners at Alumni Ventures, giving accredited investors access to private market investment opportunities alongside leading VC firms.

所以接下来请留意更多关于他们的信息。

So keep an ear out for more information on them later in the episode.

不过现在，欢迎回到Milk Road Crypto，我的老朋友Jamie Coutts。

But for now, welcome back to Milk Road Crypto, my old friend Jamie Coutts.

先生，你最近怎么样？

Sir, how are you?

我挺好的，John。

I'm doing well, John.

谢谢你再次邀请我。

Thanks for having me back.

你看上去显然在感冒，真是辛苦了。

You are very obviously fighting a cold, so you are a trooper for doing this.

非常高兴你能来。

I'm really glad to have you.

感谢你为了我们大家坚持下来。

Thank you for sticking it out for all of us here.

杰米，我想从我们上次聊天开始，那是七月份的时候。

Jamie, I wanted to start the conversation by going back to the last time we talked, which was in July.

当时你看到大时间框架上开始形成看涨背离，你也在大幅加仓回到市场。

And at the time, you were seeing bullish divergences beginning to form on the the larger time frames, and you were moving back into the markets in size.

事实证明那是正确的操作。

That turned out to be the right play there.

跟我聊聊你当时在那个底部看到了什么，以及为什么你决定在那次大幅做空挤压之前自信地重返市场？

Walk me through a little bit about what you were seeing around that bottom and and the the decision to go back into the market with confidence right before that big short squeeze?

经历过几次这样的周期，你就会开始寻找之前周期中在重大转折点出现的那些迹象。今年年中，大部分迹象都已经齐了。

Well, I mean, you go through a couple of these, cycles and you start to look for, things that you've seen in previous cycles to to form at major inflection points, and so most of them lined up by the middle of the year.

现在宏观方面是那种……

Now the macro front is the one that's sort of like the...

它现在仍然在给市场带来压力。

It's still hanging over the markets right now.

这个我待会儿再说，但当时的情况还不足以阻止我，就像你说的，重新回到市场里。

I'll come back to that, but it wasn't enough for me to sort of stop me from, as you said, wading back into the market.

我从去年第四季度就开始积累现金，而真正让我看到的是二月份的投降式抛售信号。

I had built up cash from q four of last year, and really what I saw in February were the signs of capitulation.

投降式抛售意味着实际亏损达到极端，清算也达到极端。

Capitulation is extremes in realized losses, extremes in liquidations.

这些通常都是市场筑底时会出现的信号。

These are usually the signs that you get when you're forming a bottom.

当时我说的是——我记得是在那个投降式低点出现后的那周，我上过节目，谈到的就是——基本上，至少在比特币周期里，你会看到对那个投降低点的再次测试。

Now at the time, what I was saying, and I think I was on the show the week after we had seen that capitulation low, and I was talking about this was that, basically, what you typically get, at least in a in a Bitcoin cycle, is a retest of that capitulation low.

之前的周期里我们也见过这种情况。

We saw that in in previous cycles.

当然，后来确实出现了，但那是一次失败的破位。

And, of course, we got that, but it was a failed breakdown.

而且重要的是，到七月份的时候，我看到了几个迹象。

And importantly, what I was seeing by July was a couple of things.

首先，在周线级别上，我经常在节目里跟你们聊这个，我一直在说去年九、十月份形成的看跌背离，老实说，这让我感觉非常不妙，我反复强调过很多次。

Firstly, on the weekly time frames, and I always talk about this when I'm, you know, on air with you guys, I was talking about the bearish divergence that formed September, October last year, which was giving me, quite frankly, you know, the very negative vibes, which I keep on saying over and over again.

我当时的判断，说实话有点失误，因为我没有充分降低风险。

I called, I would say badly, because I didn't derisk enough.

我基本上是从第三季度开始逐步获利了结，积累现金，但我以为第四季度和第一季度的回调只是30%的跌幅。

I basically started taking, profits and and and, building up cash in q three, but I thought that that correction in q four and q one was just gonna be a 30% correction.

结果不是。

It wasn't.

那是真正的大熊市。

It was a big bear market.

好的。

Okay.

那么，七月份发生了什么？

So that being that, what happened in July?

我们看到了完全相反的情况。

We saw the inverse of that.

我们在周线图上看到了看涨背离，动量指标和价格之间出现了这种信号。

We saw a bullish divergence on the weekly chart between the momentum indicators and price.

当价格一直试探58000、59000的下边界时，周线RSI却在形成更高的低点。

As price was kept on pushing that lower bound of 58, 59,000, the weekly RSI was making high lows.

在高时间框架上出现这种情况，对比特币来说通常是个非常好的信号，意味着下行动能正在减弱。

That is always a very good sign when it happens in a high time frame, for Bitcoin that actually the momentum to the downside is losing weight.

但重要的是，与此同时，我也开始看到加密生态系统和比特币之间出现了真正的分化。

Now importantly, at that same time, what I was starting to see was real divergence between the crypto ecosystem and Bitcoin.

一些应用开始表现更优，它们正在触底并形成高点……

Outperformance coming from apps that were bottoming and having high...

到比特币形成那个看涨背离时，这些应用已经出现了更高的低点，还有更高的高点。

Higher lows and also higher highs by the time Bitcoin was forming that bullish divergence.

这让我觉得很奇怪，因为之前我们都没见过这种情况……

That was very strange to me in a sense that we hadn't seen that for...

在之前市场的低点，我们都没见过这种形态。

We hadn't seen that formation in previous market lows.

现在我们……

Now we've...

以前的市场周期里，我们没见过几次，所以样本量小，也就这样吧。

In previous market cycles, and we haven't had many, so, you know, small sample size and all that.

但总的来说，这次比特币引领整个板块或资产类别的方式，跟以往很不一样。

But generally, the way Bitcoin leads the sector or leads the asset class was very different this time around.

所以我就开始从基本面的角度去看DeFi应用和协议，观察它们在过去九个月的熊市里是怎么交易的。

So I started to look at DeFi applications, DeFi protocols from a fundamental perspective, looking at how they traded through the last, let's call it, nine months of the bear market.

而且很多时候，它们的收益和费用收入的波动这次要小一些。

And in many cases, the volatility in the earnings in the fee generation was less this time around.

实际上，有些项目甚至还在扩大自己的市场份额。

In fact, some of them were actually still growing their footprint.

现在，这又有点意思了。

Now, again, this is kind of interesting.

这就是我们目前的情况……

This is what we have...

我进入这个行业很多年了，一直期待看到收益、现金流或者收入——不管你怎么定义——的持久性，以及更结构性的资金流入。

What I have personally been waiting for for being in the space for many years, looking for durability of earnings or cash flows or revenue, wherever you wanna frame it, and sort of more structural flows.

这显然来自第一波浪潮，我指的是去年的代币化大趋势，从去年第四季度Hyperliquid开始，一直延续到今年，中间有Robinhood Chain的发布等等，这提振了一些DEX，比如LiDAR之类的项目。

And that was obviously coming through from the first wave, I would call, of like this this tokenization secular theme that started sort of q four last year with Hyperliquid and into the side of this and into sort of the middle of this year with Robinhood Chain that launched and whatnot, and that was boosting the, you know, some of the DEXs, we had LiDAR and all the rest of it.

所以有明确的迹象表明，接触加密货币的基本面理由正在体现在基本数据中，同时技术面也开始突破。

So there was clear signs that the secular case for being exposed to crypto was showing up in the fundamental data as well as the technicals were starting to break out.

所以当我查看我创建的所有行业指数——DeFi对比特币、智能合约平台、Layer 1对比特币，甚至DeFi对比智能合约平台——

So when I look at, you know, all my sector all my sector indices which I've created, you know, looking at DeFi versus Bitcoin, smart contract platforms, Layer 1s versus Bitcoin, and then even DeFi versus smart con...

它们都显示，在四五年的长期下跌趋势之后，也就是那些比率的长期熊市，至少出现了触底迹象，这足以让我在七月初部署了几乎所有的现金。

Contract platforms, they were all showing that a massive bottom after four or five years of secular downtrend, secular bear markets in those ratios were at least showing bottoming signs, and that was enough for me to deploy pretty much all the cash in early July.

然后我就等着比特币突破的那最后一次冲动行情，把剩下的现金也部署出去。

And I just waited for that last impulse move where Bitcoin broke out to deploy the last remaining cash.

这次比特币的回调吓到了很多人，但我不是其中之一。

This pullback on Bitcoin is scaring a lot of people, and I am not one of them.

所以如果你想看看我不会卖什么、为什么，我在关注什么，以及我什么时候会向这些市场部署更多资金，今天就加入Milk Road PRO吧。

So if you wanna see what I'm not selling and why, what's on my watch list, and when I'm gonna be deploying more capital into these markets, you can join Milk Road PRO today.

只要一美元。

It's just a dollar.

链接在描述里。

The link is in the description.

我在 Discord 上日夜回答问题。

I answer questions day and night in Discord.

我们在那里见。

I'll see you there.

好的。

Okay.

这个观点真的很有帮助。

That's really helpful perspective.

从上次熊市以及去年十月和那次崩盘中学到了很多教训。

There have been a lot of lessons learned both from the best...

以及所有那些事情。

Last bear market as well as, you know, the the last October and the crash and all that.

所以感谢你与我们分享这些智慧。

So I appreciate you sharing that wisdom with us.

现在我们到哪一步了？

Now where are we?

比如，比特币现在在八万多的位置徘徊。

Like, Bitcoin is now stalling out in the eighties.

我们……

We...

今天我们看到了一点上涨，达到了，我想，录制时是85,000，但我们还没有突破。

We've seen a little pump today where we've touched, I think, 85,000 today at time of recording, but we still haven't broken out.

我们也没有跌破。

We haven't broken down.

你对现在比特币的走势有什么更新的看法？你怎么解读比特币在这里的震荡行情？

What are your updated thoughts on where we are on Bitcoin right now, and how are you reading this this ranging price action we've seen for Bitcoin here?

嗯，这很有趣，从……

Well, it's interesting from...

就像，比如说……

For, like, for...

如果你从相对的角度来看，把比特币和纳斯达克放在同一个图表上对比，这是一个非常重要的对比，同时还有比特币对黄金的周线图。

If you think about it from a relative standpoint, if you put Bitcoin up on a on a chart versus the Nasdaq, which is a really important cross, as well as Bitcoin versus gold on a weekly chart.

在日线上，嗯……

On a daily, there...

很明显是上升趋势。

It's clearly in an uptrend.

在周线上，用我用的那些趋势指标来看，非常接近周线级别的转折点了，就像……

On a weekly, you know, using some of the trending indicators that I've that I've got, it's very close to inflecting on the weekly time frame, which is, like...

传统上，这通常是一个明确的信号，表明比特币和另外两个同类资产之间的供需关系或者相对表现已经发生了转折或者变化。

Has traditionally been like the the clear sign that the the demand supply equation or the relative performance between Bitcoin and these other two sort of peer assets that I compare it to has inflected or changed.

所以通常到现在，实际上，根据动量指标，我在黄金上看到的信号很明显，而且我认为纳斯达克的信号也不错，这表明动量的转变确实已经发生了。

So usually by now, actually, based on sort of the momentum indicators, what I'm seeing clearly on on gold and I think on Nasdaq is is a decent enough sign that actually that shift in momentum has happened.

所以考虑到我们有一些宏观上的担忧……

So given that we've got some macro concerns, I mean, the...

关于AI领域，总是有很多讨论，而且，我觉得确实有一些担忧……

There's always a lot of talk about what's happening in the AI space, and, look, I think there are some concern...

那个领域的融资确实有一些合理的担心，但我不想陷入关于它是不是泡沫的争论，我能评论的是流动性方面的情况。

There are definitely some legitimate concerns around financing in that space, but I think without sort of wading into the argument about whether it's a bubble or whether it's not a bubble, what I see that that I can comment on is really what's happening on the liquidity front.

当你看到债务以那样的速度增长，而流动性却没有跟上。

And when you've got a situation where debt has been has been rising at the pace that it has and liquidity has not been keeping up.

所以我使用的全球流动性指数，它的动能从今年第一季度以来一直在下降。

So the the global liquidity index that I use, the momentum on that has been declining since q one of this year.

虽然仍然是正的，但它不是……

It's still positive, but it's not...

基本上是在失去动能。

It's basically losing momentum.

这历来是股市走弱的先兆。

That's always been sort of harbinger of, you know, a weaker equity market.

当你看到融资余额，也就是Real Vision平台上发布给会员的一个报告，关于……

When you look at margin debt, which is a note that is published on the Real Vision platform to the membership there about...

如果你看保证金债务，这是投资者通过他们的经纪账户可以获得的借款，通常是用股票抵押来买更多股票，这个数字在今年的第二季度按三个月年化计算达到了127%。

If you look at margin debt, which is, you know, the borrowings that investors are allowed to access through their brokerage accounts, borrowing against stocks to buy more stocks usually, is that hit a 127% on a three month annualized basis in the second quarter of this year.

这是自2007年以来保证金债务变化率最高的一次。

Now that is the highest rate of change of margin debt since 2007.

每次超过100，通常都是不可持续的。

Whenever we've gotten over a 100, it's usually been unsustainable.

当我刚才提到的那个指标，也就是保证金债务扩张的变化率变为负值时，通常也离股市回调非常接近。

The moment when margin debt expansion goes negative in terms of the rate of change using the measure that I just talked about, it's usually been also, again, a a very close proximity to equity market pullbacks.

所以，我对加密货币目前的情况持乐观态度。

So I'm, like, I'm bullish on where we are in crypto.

我能看到相对动量正在回流到这个资产类别。

I can see the I can see the relative momentum moving back into the asset class.

我几乎已经全部投入了。

I'm almost fully deployed.

我在大约一周前……

I I took some profits about a week or...

抱歉，大约一个月前，当我看到山寨币永续合约里积累了大量杠杆时，我卖出了一部分仓位，这也是我可以谈的另一个指标。

Sorry, about a month ago on some of my positions when I saw all the leverage build up in perpetuals on altcoins, which was another indicator I can talk about.

但量非常非常小。

But it's very, very small.

基于长期主题，我对这类资产保持极度看涨的态度，但我……

I am maintaining an extremely bullish posture towards this asset class for the secular themes, but I...

我在观察股市的一些动向，心想，如果股市回调，会发生什么？

I'm looking at sort of some of these things on, on the equity markets and thinking, well, if we get a pullback in equity markets, what's gonna happen?

说白了，回应是必然的。

Without being sort of too blase about it, the response is the inevitable.

美国政府现在的情况是，经济增长至关重要。

The the US government is in a position where economic growth is paramount.

不管中期选举怎么说，他们都需要AI资本支出来推动增长，也需要AI带来的生产率提升显现出来。

Regardless of what the midterms are saying, they need the AI CapEx build out to drive growth, and they need the productivity gains from AI to show up.

所以有很多大而不能倒的公司，不是全部，但有一些。

And so there are a lot of too big to fail companies, not all, but some.

我觉得接下来必然会有流动性注入，而且现在就得来。

And I think the response will be the inevitable liquidity impulse that will have to come now in the...

而这种流动性注入通常需要先出现一些麻烦，比如市场下跌，因为美国政府的税收对这些很看重。

That liquidity impulse usually requires some sort of problem, markets falling given how important the, tax receipts are to the US government.

所以虽然如此，我对这个资产类别仍然非常看好，但这些就是我正在关注的事情。

So, you know, being that as a may, I'm still extremely bullish on on the asset class, but these are the sort of things that I'm...

我担心的事情。

I am concerned about.

这里面有很多智慧。

There's a lot of wisdom in that.

谢谢你分享这些。

Thank you for sharing that.

我得好好读读你写的研究报告，因为每次和你录节目，我都觉得学到好多。

I gotta get into some of the research that you've been writing because every time I do one of these episodes with you, I get a lot smarter.

我需要读你五六个研究报告，但总是有太多内容，时间都不够用。

I have to read, like, five or six of your research notes, and there's always more to get to than we have time to cover.

但你一直在谈的一个大话题，而且你在Token 2049上做过演讲的那个，就是加密的‘回报时代’（Crypto's Payback Era）。

But one of the big things you've been talking about, and you you did a presentation at token twenty forty nine on this, is Crypto's Payback Era.

而且这个论点，据我理解，就是‘资本纪律遇上需求拐点’。

And the thesis, as I understand it, is, capital discipline meets demand inflection.

我觉得这是最简单的方式来概括这一点。

I thought it was the the simplest way to capture this.

你能不能稍微给我们讲讲这个论点，以及加密的‘回报时代’到底是什么样的？

Could you talk us through a little bit about this thesis and and what crypto's payback era actually looks like?

我进入这个领域大概五年了，我进来是因为我真的很想弄清楚或者理解，代币价格的主要驱动因素是什么。

So I've been in this space for, like, five years, and I came into it because I really wanted to sort of unlock or understand the, what are the main drivers for token prices.

首先是比特币，然后是一切发生在……嗯，怎么说呢，加密生态系统的边缘地带的事情，

Firstly, starting with Bitcoin and then starting with everything that's happening in sort of the creep...

比如智能合约平台和DeFi应用。

The crypto ecosystem, so smart contract platforms and and DeFi applications.

最让人沮丧的是，约翰，在这个领域的前几年，基本面其实并不重要。

And the most frustrating thing, John, has been for really the, you know, the first several years being in this space that fundamentals have not really mattered.

叙事和供应方程压制了很多本应重要的需求因素。

Narratives and the supply equation has overruled a lot of the demand factors that should matter.

他们做了大量回测，还为Real Vision社区开发了一些新的筛选工具，这些工具能深入分析这些因素。

They did a lot of backtesting and and building up some new screens and tools for the Real Vision community, which kind of drill into this, and there's a...

最终结果是，我在我的平台上构建了一个质量筛选工具，我稍后会详细说明。

The end result is like a quality screen that I've built on on my platform, which I'll get to in a second.

但基本上，在过去十二个月里，我们看到的是，如果你开始根据定义质量的属性来筛选资产，任何股票投资者都会熟悉因子投资。

But, essentially, what we've seen is, in the last twelve months, let's say, that if you start screening assets by attributes that sort of define quality, and anyone who's an equity investor will be familiar with factor investing.

无论是价值投资者还是动量投资者，质量是另一个重要因子，它关注公司盈利能力和利润的质量。

So whether it's your value investor or momentum investor, quality is another big one which looks at sort of the the the the quality of the profitability of the earnings of the company.

你可以这样……

You can sort of...

你可以把这种思路引入加密货币，并将这些定义对应到加密资产上。

You can bring that into crypto, and translate those, those definitions into crypto.

这很主观，但我有自己的定义，它关注费用的持久性、费用的波动性、供应纪律，以及代币持有者在排放后的净回报。

It's very subjective, but I've got mine which looks at, you know, the durability of the, of fees, like how volatile are the fees, supply discipline, like how much is being emitted, and what is the net payback to the token holder after emissions.

所以这里面包括了回购、销毁之类的操作。

So that includes the the buybacks and, burns and things like this.

而且基本上，你现在能看到的是，如果你在过去几年里投资那些真正具备严格资金纪律和高品质的少数资产，它们的表现其实并没有比那些不具备这些特质的资产更好。

And and and, essentially, what you start to see now is that, really, if you're investing in the in the in the few assets over the last couple of years that actually had pretty strong capital discipline and high quality, it didn't really it didn't really outperform those that didn't.

它肯定也没有跑赢比特币、以太坊和Solana这样的大盘股组合。

And it certainly didn't outperform the large cap universe of Bitcoin, ETH, Sol.

今年年初以来，这类市场子集——也就是那些正在释放代币的DeFi协议——的表现优势……

Since start of the year, the outperformance of this sort of subset of the market, which are DeFi protocols that are, you know, emitting...

要么通过通缩机制回馈持有者，要么因为资本纪律和新代币经济政策而降低了通胀率，这些措施在收紧供应的同时，也展现了强劲的手续费增长。

Paying back either deflationary or have reduced their inflation rates because of, capital discipline and new tokenomic policies, are reigning in supply, while also showing, strong fee growth.

它们的表现实际上已经跑赢了大盘。

It's actually started to outperform.

这其实并不让人意外。

Now that shouldn't be shocking.

真正让人惊讶的是，竟然花了这么长时间才出现这种情况。这是因为之前的SEC管理层导致很少有协议愿意制定围绕代币价值捕获的政策。

What's shocking is that it's taken this long, and it's the result of the of the fact that we had very few protocols who were willing to actually create policies around, for token value accrual because of the previous administration, the previous SEC.

每次Uniswap没有打开费用开关，都是因为他们担心SEC会采取执法行动。

Every time, you know, Uniswap didn't Uniswap didn't put on their, turn on their fee switch because they were worried about, you know, enforcement action from the SEC.

其中一些...

Some of them...

坦白说，有些协议没有实现价值累积，不只是SEC的原因。

Some of the protocols, quite frankly, it wasn't the SEC only that kept them back from value accrual.

本质上是因为代币和股权持有者之间的严重错位：代币没有价值累积，而股权持有者拿走了协议的所有收入。

It was essentially a really bad or misalignment between the token, which had no value accrual, and the equity holders, which captured all the revenue from the protocol.

而且你看，有很多重新对齐的例子正在开始出现。

And if you look at, you know, there's plenty of examples of realignment starting to happen.

Athena就是一个很好的例子。

Athena is a great example of this.

Athena站出来说了，对吧。

Athena went out and said, right.

现在所有知识产权都归基金会，为代币服务。

All the IP sits under the, foundation for the for the token now.

所有收入都归代币所有。

All revenues accrue to the token.

我们会明智地进行回购，这取决于我们能否扩大稳定币的供应量。

We're gonna institute buybacks, smartly based on, you know, whether we can grow the, stablecoin supply.

他们买断了，或者说，他们给所有有归属期的内部人提供了被买断的机会，并把归属时间表提前，变成了一次大规模的解锁。

And they bought out, or they they offered all insiders who were due to vest the opportunity to be bought out and brought and brought forward the the vesting schedule to one sort of massive unlock.

所有这些，都开始在数据中显现出来。

All of these things, are starting to show up in the data.

它们开始在我查看代币的时候显现出来……

They're starting to show up when I look at token...

从2022年的十五分之一，到现在，采纳积极代币经济政策的代币数量越来越多。

The number of tokens that are initiating positive tokenomic policies from one in 15, you know, back in 2022.

约翰，我想我这里有一张图，可能能展示这一点。

And I think I've got a chart here, John, where it might be able to show this.

你看，回顾2021年，在前100名中，净正面的代币经济变化大约只有十五分之一。

If you look at, this back in 2021, net positive tokenomic changes were about one in 15 of the top 100.

现在大约是2020%。

Now it's about 2020%.

所以这……

So it...

这意味着什么呢？说到底，在加密货币领域，如果你有一个应用，你显然必须把收入再投资到增长上，但现在你不仅要在产品或服务的市场契合度上竞争，还要开始在经济模型上竞争，以及你对资本的管理纪律。

What what what this means is, the bottom line is that in crypto, if you have an application, you have to you have to obviously reinvest revenues into growth, but you are not only competing now on product market fit of the product or the service that you're offering in crypto, but you're also starting to compete on tokenomics and how disciplined you are with your capital.

这对一个资产类别来说是非常积极的，坦白说，对大多数机构投资者来说，由于监管和资本纪律的缺失，这个资产类别一直是不值得投资的。

And that is very positive for an asset class that, quite frankly, for most institutional investors, has been uninvestable because of regulations and because of the lack of capital discipline.

但这并不意味着每个代币或者整个资产类别都是干净的。

So this doesn't mean that every token or the whole asset class is clean.

当然有些情况显然不是这样，但趋势是明确的。

There are certainly cases where, it's, you know, it's clearly not, but the trend is clear.

这正是让我在这个领域多年后变得看涨的原因，因为我们开始看到协议、应用和区块链在这个领域展现出负责任的态度。

And this is what is making me bullish after being in this space for several years that we're starting to see responsible diligence, from the protocols and the applications, the blockchains in the space.

明白了。

Gotcha.

好的。

Okay.

所以这真的是一个相当全面的分析。

So this is a pretty comprehensive, you know, analysis of all of this here.

但我听你说的大概就是我最初提到的那个观点，就是资本纪律。

But what I'm hearing you saying is just that initial thesis I said, like, capital discipline.

换句话说，新代币的发行变得更有纪律性了，同时需求也出现了拐点，这两者结合在了一起。

In other words, the new issuance of tokens is is getting, let's say, more disciplined, and then there's a demand inflection that's combined with all of this.

你在研究里提到，协议在过去一年里向持有者支付了将近20亿美元，但费用和收入实际上比去年峰值要低。

You called out in your research that protocols paid holders almost $2,000,000,000 over the last year, but the fees and revenues are actually down from last year's peak.

这是因为我们一直处于熊市吗？如果牛市真的回来了，你预期这会迅速反弹吗？

Is that just because of the bear market that we've been in, and do you expect this to turn around rapidly if if the bull market does start to come back?

所以我昨天在Real Vision发布的一份报告里算过这些数字。

So, I mean, I I ran these numbers in a report published yesterday on Real Vision.

应用费用比去年下降了，但还是...

So application fees are down on last year, but it's still...

从年初至今来看，它们很可能非常接近去年，我记得去年应用费用大约是1.414万亿美元。

On a year to date basis, they're likely to get very close to last year, which I think was around a number of around $1,414,000,000,000 for application fees.

所以基本上，这就是我所说的加密生态系统或加密经济的GDP。

So essentially what I call the GDP of the crypto ecosystem or the crypto economy.

现在是大约11或12，这是最新的数字，而且之前是...

It's now about 11 or 12, last numbers, and was...

是...

It's...

从年初至今，我们预计会接近去年的水平。

Year to date, we're tracking to be close to last year.

去年是多少？

And what was last year?

去年是牛市的顶峰。

Last year was the peak of the bull market.

而这次是一次相当惨烈的熊市。

This has been a pretty torrid bear market.

但我觉得更有意思的是你刚才提到的那个点。

But I think what's more interesting is what you just mentioned.

不仅仅是25到26年这些费用变得更抗跌了。

It's not just the fees are are more resilient from 25 to 26.

更重要的是，通过这些机制，也就是代币价值累积机制，真正落到代币持有者手里的比例其实在上升。

It's that the percentage that's reaching the token holder through these mechanisms, through these token value accrual mechanisms is actually increasing.

所以，那些用于销毁、回购、验证或质押奖励的费用份额增加了，这是个积极的信号。

So that share of the fees that is supporting either burns, buybacks, or, validate or staking rewards has increased, and this is a positive sign.

我不会说这已经…

I wouldn't argue that, you know, this is a...

这有点类似股票的特性，但确实开始慢慢…

This is like equity like, attributes, but it is starting to just starting to...

这些协议开始展现出更强的资本纪律，这正是你投资这类资产时希望看到的。

The the protocols are starting to exhibit greater capital discipline in in the ways that you would want to see if you're investing in this asset class.

好的。

Alright.

我想问你的是，价值驱动因素方面最大的变化是什么？

And something I wanted to ask you about is what is the the biggest change in terms of drivers of value here?

因为在你看的这三年里，代币化的现实世界资产涨了16倍，稳定币也翻了一番。

Because over this three year period that you looked at here, tokenized real world assets have gone up, you said, 16 x, and stablecoins have doubled.

这两者对代币价格和整个加密经济来说，哪一个更重要？

Which one of these two matters more for the token prices for the overall crypto economy?

是引入更多这些高质量代币化的现实世界资产上链，还是引入更多的稳定币美元，还是两者都需要？

Is it bringing in more of these tokenized real world assets, these high quality assets on chain, or is it bringing in more stablecoin dollars, or do you need both?

你怎么看这个问题？

Like, how do you view that?

好问题。

That's a good question.

我可能会试着用技术宅的方式回答，比如说，看啊。

So, like, I would try to nerd out with an answer that says, oh, look.

我得把这两者都做回归分析，看看哪个相关性最高，而且我可能真的会去做，因为我就这种人。

I need to regress both of these and find out which one has the most most relevance, and which I probably will do just because I'm like that.

但我觉得，这其实...

But, like, I think it's...

真正的答案是两者都有。

The the real answer is that it's both.

代币化资产会增加交易活动。

Tokenized assets increase trading activity.

它也会改变链上交易的性质，从...

It also changes the nature of trading on chain from...

从加密原生产品转向现实世界资产。

Away from crypto native assets to obviously real world assets.

所以周期性的波动会减少。

And so there is less cyclicality.

现实世界资产会有更多基本面驱动因素，这最终会推动代币价格上涨。

There are more fundamental sort of drivers of real world assets, and that ultimately leads to improvement in token prices.

所以去中心化交易所的交易量一直是最大的...

So DEX volumes has been one of the biggest...

或者说，这是推动加密货币价格的最强相关回报因素之一，比如对Solana、以太坊以及这些区块链来说。

Or one of the strongest correlated return drivers for for crypto prices, like for Solana and Ethereum and the and the blockchains.

问题在于，这非常具有周期性。

The problem is that it's being very cyclical.

所以如果你只看，比如，当它加速的时候，通常你处于一个周期的末端。

So if you just look at, like, when it accelerates, typically, you're at the end of a cycle.

这样做的作用是，它将平抑DEX交易量的高峰和低谷，从而平抑产生费用的基础资产的波动，这些资产就是应用程序，以及它们所结算的区块链。

What this will do is that it will moderate the peaks and troughs in DEX volumes, which will moderate the peaks and troughs in the underlying assets that generate the fees, which is the applications and then the blockchains that it settle on as well.

所以……

So...

然后还有稳定币。

And then you've got stablecoins.

这一切都会是驱动价值的各种因素的混合体，因为稳定币是进入商业的燃料，这开辟了新的用例，从而推动DEX交易量，并与RWA以及链上可用的新抵押品形式混合，这些将随着个人金融交易中的解锁而发生。

It's it's all going to be one messy mix of everything that's gonna drive value because stablecoins are are the fuel for edge into commerce, which open up new use cases, which will drive DEX volumes and mix with RWAs and the new and new forms of collateral that will be available on chain with the unlocks that will happen in personal finance trading.

这一切都非常……

It's all very...

它们其实都算是一类东西……

You know, they're all sort of one...

有一点是确定的。

The one thing.

好的。

Okay.

我想说……

I I wanna...

很高兴你提到了代理金融，因为不久前我请到了拉胡尔·鲍威尔上节目，我们花了很长时间讨论人工智能和加密货币的交集。

I'm glad you brought up Agentic Finance because I had Rahul Powell on the channel not too long ago, and he and I spent a long time talking about this intersection of AI and crypto.

这是我们Milk Road一直关注的领域，我知道你在这方面也思考了很多。

This is something we've been focused on here at Milk Road, and I know you think about this a lot too.

但到目前为止，代理金融似乎还处于非常早期的原型阶段，真正使用加密货币的AI代理其实还不多。

But so far, it seems like Agenic Finance is still very early stages just in prototypes, and and there's not a huge amount of, you know, AI agents using crypto yet.

你对这个有什么看法？

What is your outlook on that?

你觉得这真的要再等几年才能真正起飞吗？

Do you think that this is gonna take a few more years before it really takes off?

你觉得到2027年这会变成一件大事吗？

Is this gonna be, like, a big thing in 2027 in your mind?

还有，在这个你提到的稳定币、链上金融和代币化的大框架里，你在那个交叉点上都看到了些什么？

And just what are you seeing at that intersection as as part of this whole mix that you're describing of stablecoins, on chain finance, and tokenization?

我实在看不出这怎么不会成为2027年的大新闻。

I I can't see how this isn't gonna be a massive 2027 story.

所以我在追踪X402协议的活动情况，然后发现……

So, you know, I've been tracking the x four zero two protocol activity, and it's like...

挺让人失望的。

It's been disappointing.

它……

It...

去年年底有一波大爆发，大家都挺兴奋的，但其中很多是激励驱动的，而且也是像Base这样的主要玩家在做测试。

There was a huge surge at the end of last year, which everyone got excited about, but a lot of that was incentive based and and also beta testing by the major players in this space like Base.

但从那以后，确实挺令人失望的。

And it's been it's been really disappointing since.

就在最近几个月，出现了一些重大进展，比如 Cloudflare，它承载了大约 20% 的网络流量，已经启用了 x402。

Now in the last couple of months, you've seen some major announcements like Cloudflare, which represents about 20% of web traffic, have enabled x four zero two.

这……

That...

突然之间，我们进入了一个新世界，如果你有网站，就可以设置门槛，对 API 调用或者数据抓取进行收费。

Suddenly, we're in a world where if you've got a website, you can actually gate it and charge for API calls or for scraping of your data.

这确实让人眼前一亮，也是过去几年我们在价值变现方面看到的积极进展之一。

Now that's quite liberating and one of the positive developments that we've seen in the last couple of years for, you know, realization of value.

而这……

And that of...

显然，这会通过某种智能代理的方式来实现。

Obviously is going to be conducted through sort of agentic means.

我觉得这……

I think that the...

现在x四零二协议交易的量，可能就是我们以后能看到的最低点了，以后不会再低了。

Where x four zero two protocol transactions are right now is probably the low that we'll see, the lowest it will ever be.

这在多大程度上会……

How meaningful that happen...

从总体交易量来看，我觉得会很小，因为这些是微交易。

That is in terms of, like, overall transaction volumes, I think it'll be fairly small because these are micro transactions.

这需要几年的时间才能慢慢起来。

It's gonna take a couple of years for this to ramp up.

如果你从它在链上总交易费中的占比来看，今天它微乎其微，几乎可以忽略不计。

And if you think about it in terms of just, like, the percentage of overall on chain transaction fees, it's it's, like, tiny, minuscule today.

就算它增加一百倍、一千倍，相对其他费用来源来说还是很小，因为代币化以及链上正在出现的新型金融渠道也会产生大量费用。

And even if it ramps up a 100, a thousand times, it will still be relatively small versus all the other fee generation that takes place because of tokenization and the new financial sort of channels that are starting to appear on chain as well.

但随着时间的推移，它会超过其他所有。

But in time, it will it will dwarf everything else.

但我认为，不需要等到2027年它占到总量的50%，就能对整个生态系统产生巨大影响。

But I think you don't need it you don't need it to be, like, 50% of overall volumes by 2027 for it to have a huge impact on on the ecosystem.

在加密货币领域，你可以早在项目上线Coinbase之前就加入。

In crypto, you can get into a project long before it lists on Coinbase.

而在科技领域，早期机会主要属于风险投资公司，公司现在保持私有状态十年甚至更久。

In tech, the early window mostly belongs to VCs, and companies now stay private for a decade or more.

Alumni Ventures，作为Milk Road Show的合作伙伴，为合格投资者提供了进入的机会。

Alumni Ventures, a partner of the Milk Road Show, gives accredited investors a way in.

Time和CB Insights都将他们评为美国风投公司前20强。

Time and CB Insights both rank them as a top 20 US venture firm.

你可以免费注册查看每周的交易机会，或者向他们的基础基金投入一笔资金，参与大约25笔私募交易。

You can sign up for free to see the weekly deal flow or write one check into their foundation fund for about 25 private deals.

不过，风险投资风险高、周期长，先仔细阅读相关细节。

Venture is high risk and long term, though, so read the details first.

访问 av.vc/milkroad。

Go to av.vc/milkroad.

好的。

Alright.

杰米，这一期节目我们已经聊得挺深入了。

Jamie, we're we're getting pretty deep into the episode here.

我得问问你，你的投资组合里具体有些什么。

I gotta ask you a little bit about what's in the portfolio here.

因为我在节目开头就说过，你是加密圈最顶尖的分析师之一。

Because I said at the top of the show, you're one of the best analysts in crypto.

大家总想知道你手里握了什么，又清仓了什么，而且我们之前也聊到了一些支撑你观点的基础因素。

People always wanna know what's in the bag, what's out of the bag, and we talked about some of the fundamentals that drive some of your thesis.

你在Zcash、Derive、Near这些币上做过大胆的判断，而且你说过你对市场整体还是偏看多的。

You made huge calls on names like Zcash, Derive, Near, several others, and you said you're still mostly long on the markets.

你之前也锁定了一些利润。

You took a little bit of profits.

跟我说说，你现在最关注哪些资产？

Just talk to me a little bit about what are some of the assets you're most focused on right now.

你还在持有吗？

Are you still holding?

你有没有考虑再多套现一些？

Are you thinking about taking more profits?

从现在来看，你对你的投资组合有什么看法？

What's what's the the the outlook for your portfolio from here?

对我而言，今年主要是在为下一个阶段做布局……

So for for me, this this year has been about positioning for the next...

下一个阶段就是资产类别结构的变化，我一开始也提到过，就是更多地转向应用层，还有智能合约平台，说白了就是相对比特币来说，这些会更受重视。

This next phase of the of the asset class, which I sort of alluded to at the start, which was really about the changing structure of the asset class tilting more towards applications, but also smart contract platforms, for lack of better term, at the expense of Bitcoin.

比特币仍然是我最大的持仓，但我在Real Vision的时候管理过一个投资组合，四年里……

Bitcoin's still my largest position, but I was running a portfolio for four years in, you know, in a real...

我刚到Real Vision时，那个组合里80%到85%都是比特币，这当时是正确的选择。

At Real Vision when I came over, which was 80, 85% Bitcoin, which was the right call.

你看相对走势图，过去几年里，没有什么资产能持续跑赢比特币。

Like, if you just look at the relative charts, nothing had really broken out against Bitcoin over the last couple of years in a sustained fashion.

但现在情况开始变了。

That's starting to change.

以太坊之前曾经威胁到比特币的地位。

I mean, Ethereum was threatening it.

我知道你非常看好以太坊，而且以太坊在你的投资组合里。

I know that you're a big Ethereum bull and Ethereum's in the portfolio.

它是最主要的持仓之一，而且它几乎……

It's one of the largest positions, and it was virtually...

它之前不是……

It was not...

我今年之前并没有持有它。

I didn't hold it before this year.

它看起来还在筑底，为将来突破做准备。

It still looks like it's forming a base to break out later.

我觉得总的来说，DeFi应用也是类似的情况。但关键是市场的性质变了——应用类，特别是DeFi应用，以及智能合约平台，跟比特币这个基准资产、锚定资产相比，相对表现已经开始发生变化。

And I could say that about the DeFi applications in general as well, but it's just the change in the nature of the market where the relative performance in applications, DeFi applications, and also smart contract platforms versus Bitcoin, the benchmark asset, the anchor asset, has started to change.

所以这真的是我关注的焦点。

So that has been really the the focus for me.

我一直在把投资组合重新调整到新金融经济的基础层或基础设施层，也就是一层网络。

It's been reorientating the portfolio into the the base the base or the infrastructure layer for the new financial economy, which is l ones.

我还没把任何二层网络当作……

I've not looked at any of the l twos as a...

投资对象来看。

As investment.

我知道，比如有人对Arbitrum提出了很大的预测，但我现在关注的是二层网络，把配置比例从大约10%到20%提高到大约30%到35%，并且DeFi的配置从0%增加到了大约20%。

I know that I know that, like, have come out with some really big calls on Arbitrum, but I'm looking at the l ones at this at this point and taking the allocation up from, you know, roughly around about 10, 20% up to about 30, 35% and gone from 0% in DeFi to about 20% in DeFi.

可能还需要再高一点，所以资金主要投向了那些我认为在代币化浪潮中有望胜出的主要去中心化交易所。

Probably needs to go a little bit higher, so the allocations have been towards the the the major DEXs that I think are positioned to win in the tokenization wave.

从今年三月开始，我一直非常看好Derive，它表现非常出色，远超其他。

I've been a big bull on derive from March of this year, and that's been a fantastic outperformer.

我另一个感兴趣的领域是借贷，所以我通过Aave和其他几个协议有所涉足。

And the other the other sectors are that I'm quite interested in is lending as well, so I've got exposure there through Abe and a couple of the other protocols.

所以现在的确是在重新倾斜到DeFi应用上。

So it's really a retilt towards DeFi applications at this stage.

而且，当然，我在四月份买了Zcash，并且一直在持有。

And, of course, I I, you know, I bought Zcash back in April, and I continue to to hold that.

我只是觉得现在在比特币之外，有了更大的机会，实实在在的机会，有现金流再生和资本纪律。

I just think that there is, there is greater opportunities now, legitimate opportunities with, cash flow regeneration and capital discipline happening outside of Bitcoin.

那真的很好，我很感谢你如此坦诚。

That's really great, and I appreciate the transparency on that.

我也很高兴我有了看好以太坊的名声。

And I'm also glad that I'm getting a reputation for being bullish on Ethereum.

我不知道你是怎么得出这个结论的。

I don't know how you got that idea.

我还想问你另一件事。

I I wanna ask you about something else too.

我……

I...

你曾说过你在加密货币领域的投资风格是高信念、低换手，这让我很有共鸣，因为我也是这么做的。

You've heard you describe your investing style in crypto as high conviction, low turnover, and that resonates a lot with me because that's kind of how I approach this as well.

但是雅典娜呢，我听你提到过，如果我说错了你纠正我，你说这个对你来说更像是一次短线操作，不一定和那些长期持有的项目是同一类。

But Athena is one that I've heard you say, you know, correct me if I'm wrong in this, but I've heard you say that this for you is a trade and not necessarily in the same bucket as some of these longer term holds for you.

你能说说你是怎么想的吗？你是怎么决定某个项目是做短线还是长线持有，这个过程是怎样的？

Could you walk me through the thinking on that and, you know, how you kind of decide is something a trade versus a long term hold and what that that process is like for you?

雅典娜呢，其实……

So Athena was...

刚才提到了，这个项目我觉得它今年真的挺会看形势的，它说我们必须改变我们的运营方式，因为我们就是那种……你懂的……

Mentioned earlier, it was one of these protocols which I think recognized, like, read the room really well this year and said, we have to change how we're conducting ourselves because we were one of these sort of, you know...

我敢肯定他们自己不会这么说，但是，他们就是那种风投币，上线后就一直表现不佳，因为代币发行结构的问题。

I'm sure they would never say it, but, like, they were one of these VC coins that came out and and and and just chronically underperformed because of the the structure of the of the TGE.

所以他们没有，没有回购机制，但他们启动了……

And so they don't have, they don't have a buyback, but they've initiated...

他们改变了政策，启动了回购计划，回购的条件是稳定币供应量从目前的约4.8增长到7.5。

They've they've changed the policy to initiate a buyback based on the growth of the, stablecoin supply from where it is now at about 4.8.

达到7.5才会开始回购，我觉得这其实挺聪明的，你不应该不管市场情况或项目表现如何就随意回购代币。

It needs to get up to 7.5 for the buybacks that kick you, which I think is actually a smart, you shouldn't buy back a token, you know, irrespective of what the market is doing or how well you are tracking as a protocol.

就是说，应该根据关键绩效指标来决定。

Like, it should be based on KPI.

所以我觉得这个做法非常非常聪明。

So I think that was very, very smart.

作为一个高波动性的投资，考虑到我在八月份看到的那些逆转信号，当时持有它是个好选择。

So as a a very high beta play, given the reversals that I was seeing back in back in August, it was just a good it was a good asset to own at the time.

你看。

Look.

我，我……

I I...

它可能只是……

It could just...

它可能是一项我会长期持有的资产。

It could be an asset that I hold for a lot longer.

它的表现真的非常出色。

It performed extremely well.