本轮牛市中最具潜力的山寨币

我们想两边都下注，既押注赢家，尤其是那些看起来会输的赢家，也押注输家，尤其是那些看起来会赢的输家。

We're interested in making both bets on both, betting on winners, especially when they're priced to lose, and and betting on losers, especially when they're priced to win.

比特币终于突破了几个关键阻力位，多头又回来了。

The bulls are back after Bitcoin finally broke out of some key resistance levels.

但这现在意味着什么呢？

But what does that mean now?

接下来会怎么走，还有

Where do we go from here, and

我们需要知道什么

what do we need to know

作为加密货币投资者，才能在这些市场中游刃有余？

as crypto investors to navigate these markets?

大家好，欢迎收听Milk Road Crypto，这个节目深知，与其追涨已经涨过的，不如提前发现下一个要涨的。

Hello, and welcome to Milk Road Crypto, the show that knows that it is better to find what's going to pump next than to chase what has already pumped.

我是主持人John Gillen。

I'm your host, John Gillen.

今天，我们请到了格雷格·维韦里托。

Today, we are joined by Greg Viverito.

他是TAG资本的普通合伙人。

He is the general partner at TAG Capital.

TAG运营着整个行业内最顶尖的加密货币多空基本面驱动投资组合之一。

TAG runs one of the best long short fundamentals driven crypto portfolios in the entire business.

这家伙今天有很多干货要跟我们分享，我们会深入探讨他在这些市场中的策略，这一期会有很多独到的见解。

This guy has a ton of alpha to share with us today, and we're gonna get into his strategy for these markets, and there's just gonna be a lot of insight in this one.

我很期待这一期。

I'm excited for this.

如果你觉得不错，记得点赞和订阅。

If that sounds good to you, make sure you like and subscribe.

把这期节目分享给会喜欢的朋友吧。

Share this episode with somebody who's gonna enjoy it.

提醒一下，我们今天的播客是免费的，这要感谢我们的优秀合作伙伴Nexo，这个数字资产平台让你在一个地方就能交易、赚取和借贷。

As a reminder, our podcast today is free, and that would not be possible without our wonderful partners at Nexo, the digital asset platform that lets you trade, earn, and borrow all in one place.

所以请留意今天节目后面关于他们的更多信息。

So keep an ear out for more information on them later in today's episode.

但现在，欢迎来到Milk Road加密频道。

But for now, welcome to Milk Road crypto.

格雷格，你好吗，先生？

Greg, how are you, sir?

我很好。

Doing great.

牛市回来了。

The bull's back.

牛市回来了。

The bull's back.

我觉得从这里开始聊是个好话题，格雷格。

I thought that would be a good place to start the conversation, Greg.

很多人看到比特币这次突破，就说牛市回来了，新一轮牛市要开始了。

A lot of people are looking at this breakout on Bitcoin and declaring that the bulls are back, that there's the start of a new bull market that's happening.

但还是有人看空，说这是假突破，是个多头陷阱。

But some people are still bearish in saying that this is a fake out and a bull trap.

在这个问题上，你站在哪一边？你更倾向于哪个方向？

Where do you land on this conversation, and which side do you tilt towards here?

是的。

Yes.

其实我和我的联合创始人、我的合伙人，基本上每天都在讨论这个问题。

So we have this this conversation basically every day between my cofounder, my partner, and I.

通常我是看空的，他是看多的。

And normally, I'm the bear and he's the bull.

我觉得加密货币教会我们的一件事就是，事情永远不会像看起来那么好，也永远不会像看起来那么糟。

And I think the one thing that crypto has taught us is that it's never as good as it seems and it's never as bad as it seems.

所以我们现在做好了上涨的准备，但当然也预料到会有波动。

So we're positioned for upside from here, but we certainly don't expect it to be without volatility.

而且我们当然也不指望每个币都会涨。

And, and we certainly don't expect it to, to necessarily include every token.

所以，我相信我们接下来会聊到这个话题。

So, I'm sure we'll get into that.

我觉得我们也会聊到。

I think we will too.

那，跟我们多介绍一下TAG基金吧，还有你在里面的角色。

Well, tell us a little bit more about TAG Fund and sort of your role here.

你们觉得自己在行业里处于什么位置？

Where do you guys see yourself in the industry?

还有，对于那些不太了解的人，多跟我们讲讲这家公司吧。

And just for those who aren't familiar, tell us a little bit more about the company.

我们是在四年半前创立了这个基金。

So, we started the fund, four and a half years ago.

当时，我们觉得自己的观点有点逆向，那就是基本面很重要。

And at the time, it felt like we had a somewhat contrarian view, which was that fundamentals matter.

现在，这个观点已经比较被大家接受了。

At this point, that's become a little bit more consensus.

我们花了大概四年时间才走到这一步。

It's taken us about four years to get there.

刚开始的时候，我们是有结构的。

And when we started, we were structured.

我们一直是一只流动性基金，只做流动性代币。

We've always been a liquid fund, liquid tokens exclusively.

我们最初只做多，后来逐渐转向多空策略。

And we started as long only and over the course of time have shifted towards a long short strategy.

所以我会说这是偏多的，但我们一直在努力理解市场在告诉我们什么，并相应调整投资组合。

So I would I would describe this as long biased, but constantly trying to understand what the market is telling us and adjust the portfolio to reflect that.

我在你的Substack和其他地方读过你写的一些东西，听你讲过很多这方面的事情。

So I've heard you say a lot about this in some of the things I've read from you on your substack and other things.

但你们把从只做多转向多空策略，视为你们成功的关键。

But you guys have talked about this pivot from being long only to long short as being a really key to your success here.

你们说过，我们现在处于加密货币的分散化阶段。是的。

And you've said that we are in a dispersion regime in crypto Yes.

对。

Which yeah.

所以我很想听你详细讲讲这个，以及你们在市场中是怎么应对的。

So I'd love to hear you just elaborate more on that and sort of, like, how you're navigating that in the markets.

我觉得我们确实见证了市场在过去几年里逐渐成熟。

I mean, I think we've we've sort of witnessed the market grow up over the past couple of years.

你知道，早期的时候，至少对我们来说，2021、2022年，各种资产的相关性几乎就是1，比特币一涨，所有东西都跟着涨。

You know, in the early days, at least for us, 2021, 2022, the correlation of stuff was effectively one when, you know, when Bitcoin pumped, everything pumped.

但现在不是这样了。

And that's not the case now.

比如，就在这波最近的上涨中，你看到一些最好的山寨币领涨。

Like, even in this this latest rally, you've seen some of the best alts lead.

这并不意味着那些不该涨的东西就完全没有动静。

And that doesn't mean that, you know, there's sort of, like, no no activity amongst some of the stuff that shouldn't be pumping.

但你真的看到了向基本面主导的转变。

But but you've seen this really the shift towards towards sort of fundamentals ruling the day.

而且我觉得在2023年到2024年那段时间，那些设计不合理的代币真的是风光不再了。

And and I think there's a period of time in, 2023, 2024 where the bloom just really fell off the rose on tokens being designed in a way that didn't make sense.

还有一些项目，就是缺乏基本价值的那些。

And also projects that were, you know, sort of lacked fundamental value.

以前这些代币跟比特币的相关性很高，但现在情况已经不一样了。

And and whereas those those tokens, you know, were were were highly correlated to Bitcoin in the past, that was no longer the case.

所以作为基金，我们看到了这个机会，可以调整策略，利用币价会下跌这个事实。

And so so as a fund, you know, we sort of saw this opportunity to restructure and take advantage of the fact that, you know, that that coins can go down.

而且有时候会跌得很厉害。

And and and and at times go down quite a lot.

所以我们把多空两边都看作是基本面押注。

And and so, you know, we think about both sides of the book as really fundamental bets.

你可以从两个维度来看每个项目和每个代币。

You can sort of think of, you know, each project and each token, on sort of two dimensions.

一个是项目进展和成功程度，另一个是代币设计。

One being traction and project success and the other being token design.

而且我们呢，你知道，我们对两方面都感兴趣，既押注赢家，尤其是当他们被低估的时候，也押注输家，尤其是当他们被高估的时候。

And and we are you know, we're we're interested in in in making both bets on both, betting on betting on winners, especially when they're priced to lose, and and betting on losers, especially when they're priced to win.

所以我觉得这场对话如果是在熊市刚开始的时候进行，而不是现在熊市快结束的时候，那会更有意思。

So I think this conversation would have been really interesting to have in the start at the start of the bear market as opposed to now at the end of it.

但是在过去的一年多里，我觉得你一直在说，在加密货币里找做空的机会比找做多的机会容易得多。

But for the last, you know, like, year or more, think I you've been saying that it's just much easier to find shorts in crypto than longs.

但同时，这也挺危险的，因为就像你说的，有些东西可能会无缘无故地暴涨，然后你就麻烦了。

But at the same time, it's also dangerous because like you said, like, some things can pump for no re no reason, and then you're in trouble.

跟我说说，你在找好的做空标的时，会关注些什么？这个分析过程是怎么样的？

Like, talk to me about what you're looking for when you're trying to find a good product to short and and what goes into that process of analysis.

先说明一下，我们进入加密货币领域是为了做多加密货币。

And just to be clear, I mean, we got into crypto to to be long crypto.

而且我们永远会做多比做空多。

And we're always gonna be more long than short.

我们认为正确的构建方式既要有战术性，也要有基本面支撑。

We think the right construction is both tactical and fundamental.

所以你找的是那些要么已经没人继续开发的项目，要么有结构性或资金流动问题，导致它很难涨上去的项目。

So you're looking for projects that are either no longer being actively worked on or have structural and flow driven issues that are gonna make it really, really hard for it to go up.

所以，典型的例子就是那些风投币。

And so, you know, the classic example here is, like, you know, sort of the the the, like, VC coins.

我觉得，在很多方面，这种动态之所以持续存在，是因为这些代币在私募市场一直有持续的买单。

Like, I think in in many ways and the reason that this dynamic persists is that there are or there were or there was a constant bid in private markets for many of these tokens.

所以他们制造了这种局面：大量供应被锁定在盈利中，而边际买家实际上消失了。

And so they created this dynamic where you just had a lot of supply locked in profit and the marginal buyer effectively went away.

所以当我们看整个市场时，就像我说的，可以把它分成好项目、坏项目、好代币、坏代币。

And so when we when we look at the universe, you can sort of, like I said, break it down into good project, bad project, good token, bad token.

那些表现好的项目，找到了产品市场契合点，正在产生收入，并且也在想办法把这些价值回馈给代币持有者，那才是你应该投资的地方。

The the projects that are doing well, have found product market fit, are generating revenue, and are also finding ways to accrue that value to token holders, that's where you wanna be investing.

然后，在某些情况下，有些项目设计非常有趣，是现在一些成功项目的先驱。

And then, you know, in some cases, you've got projects that had really interesting designs and are the forebears of some of the things that are working right now.

我们多年来一直在投资永续合约领域。

You know, we've been investing in the perp space for years.

之前的一些代币，比如GMX、DYDX，设计其实挺好的，但业务没做成，或者说还没做成。

Some of the earlier tokens there had really good models, GMX, DYDX, but the business didn't succeed, or hasn't succeeded.

另一方面，有些项目做得不错，但代币本身没什么意义。

And on the other end, you have projects that are having success, but the tokens don't make a lot of sense.

所以这两类我们基本都排除掉，算是中间地带，我们只关注可投资的领域，就是好项目加好代币，还有潜在的做空机会，就是坏项目加坏代币。

And so we we sort of write off both of those categories as as the messy middle and focus on the investable universe, which is good project, good token, and the potential shorts, which is, bad project, bad token.

我想暂停一下，提醒大家，加密货币牛市又回来了。

Just wanna pause for a quick second to remind you all that the crypto bull market is back.

我一直在把资金投入到一些我认为这轮牛市会表现很好的山寨币上。

Have been deploying capital into Altcoins that I think are gonna do very well, this bull market.

其中一些从我买入到现在已经涨了一倍多了。

Some of them are already up over two x from where I entered.

所以如果你想

So if

看看我的投资组合、我的观察列表，并且有机会获取

you wanna see what's in my portfolio, what's on my watch list, and have access to

在Discord上随时问我问题，全天24小时都可以，现在就加入Milk Road Pro吧。

me in Discord to ask questions twenty four hours a day, join Milk Road Pro now.

链接在描述里。

The link is in the description.

只要一美元。

It's just a dollar.

到时候见。

I'll see you there.

既然市场开始转牛了，你会暂时搁置做空策略，还是即使在上涨趋势中也会继续寻找做空机会？

Now that we've seen the markets start to turn more bullish, are you going to table the shorting aspect of the strategy for now, or do you think you're gonna continue to look for shorts even during a a bullish uptrend?

不会。

No.

我的意思是，几年前我们可能会给出不同的答案，但我从不认为我们会放弃做空。

I I mean, I would I mean, and we would have answered this question probably differently a few years ago, but I don't ever imagine us not having a short book.

相反，我们会根据市场环境灵活调整。

Rather, we'll flex it based on the market environment.

所以，虽然我们月初的时候做空比例接近30%，但月底我们会降到20%左右。

So whereas we were, closer to 30% short to start the month, we're gonna end the month closer to 20% short.

但是，你知道，当我们上下浏览筛选器的时候，还是有很多代币的估值不合理，很多项目的估值也说不过去。

But, you know, when we look up and down up and down the screener, there's still a lot of tokens that don't make sense, and there's still a lot of valuations that don't make sense.

而且，即使是在上涨趋势中，像我们这样的基金，总部在美国，还得为资本利得交税。

And even in an uptrend for a fund like us, you know, that's based in The US that has to pay taxes on our capital gains.

做空仓位在任何市场环境下其实都挺有用的。

A short book is is is actually quite helpful in any market environment.

你知道，我喜欢把我们做的事情看作是在运行一个全天候的投资组合。

You know, I like to think what we're doing is running an all weather portfolio.

所以，当然，在上涨趋势中，我们预期做空部分会亏钱，但我们也可以用这些亏损来抵消我们想要从赢家那里调仓的收益。

And and so, certainly, we expect to lose money on on the short sleeve during an uptrend, but we can also use those gains to offset our, rotations that we wanna make off of the winners.

而且，在这种时候，做空还能赚钱。

And we can also, you know, in in times like this, you're paid to be short.

而六个月前，我们做空还得倒贴钱。

Whereas, you know, six months ago, we were we were paying to be short.

所以我们觉得这真的能很好地补充核心做多策略，能够在像现在这样的时期收割亏损、税收亏损，还有融资。

And so we just think it really sort of complements, you know, a a core long strategy well to be able to to, you know, harvest losses, tax losses, and and harvest funding, you know, when we're in times like this.

明白了。

Gotcha.

好的。

Okay.

那我们聊聊一些符合你做空逻辑的代币吧。

Well, let's talk about some of these tokens that fit into this short thesis of yours.

你以做空特朗普币闻名，就是那个特朗普表情包币，现在好像已经跌到2美元以下了，历史高点在20美元以上。我很想听听你详细讲讲你是怎么找到做空标的并坚持做空的，还有你现在可能还在关注哪些做空机会。

You famously have been shorting the Trump coin, the Trump meme coin, which is now down below $2 I believe and had an all time high of somewhere north of $20 And I'd love to hear you elaborate more on how you go about finding a short and sticking with it and what what you might still be looking at it as a short right now.

我觉得这就是一个典型的例子，一个代币在暴涨之后，其实根本不配那个估值。

I mean, this is this is sort of the classic example of of a of a of a coin that really never deserved its valuation once it pumped.

总的来说，我对表情包币持怀疑态度，但很多表情包币并不适合做空，因为它们大多都是公平发行，供应量也完全解锁。

And I would say I'm a bit a skeptic on meme coins in general, but a lot of them are not great shorts because a lot of them have or most of them have fair launches and fully unlocked supplies.

所以它们很容易在狂热时期快速拉升。

And so, you know, very susceptible to a quick run up in in times of euphoria.

而特朗普币呢，从一开始基本上就掌握在内部人士手里。

Trump, on the other hand, was basically in the hands of insiders from day one.

而且你看，到了第二个月、第三个月，买家已经没了，卖家手里的代币却是无限的。

And when you looked at it in in, you know, month two, month three, there were no buyers left, and the sellers had infinite tokens.

所以，我们开始做空的时候，特朗普币大概在十块、十五块左右，我们看着Solana上第一波 meme 热潮退去，就问自己：谁会来买这个东西？

And so, you know, that's that's sort of where where we began our short journey was was with Trump trading, like, ten, fifteen, and just looking at it as the air came out of that that, you know, first meme cycle on Solana and asking ourselves, who's gonna buy this thing?

所有想买的人都已经买了。

Like, all the buyers have already bought.

我们不是说 meme 币永远不会再火起来。

You know, we're not we're not we're not here to say that memes are never coming back.

显然，我们见过它们火过，但这个币特别之处在于，卖家远远多于买家。

Obviously, we've seen that they have, but this one in particular had way more sellers than buyers.

所以我们一直在问自己这个问题。

And so we're just constantly asking ourselves that question.

这里的边际买家是谁？

Like, who's the marginal buyer here?

那边际卖家是谁呢？

Who's the marginal seller?

至少对于那个币，我们找不到边际买家是谁。

And and at least for that one, we couldn't we couldn't figure out who the marginal buyer was.

但边际卖家倒是很明显。

The marginal seller was quite obvious.

好吧，我就不多评论了，不过听起来你在做空那个币上确实赚到了。

Well, I'm gonna leave that with no additional comment, but it sounds like you found a winner in the shorting category there on that one.

我想听听，你知道，我们刚刚经历了一段漫长的熊市。

I I would like to hear, like, you know, we've come through a long bearish period here.

过去几个月加密货币市场基本都是跌的，除了个别例外。

There's been a lot of down only in crypto the last couple of months excluded.

你觉得在那段熊市里，你的基金表现这么好，有多少要归功于组合里的空头头寸？

How much of your funds outperformance do you think you attribute to the short positions in the portfolio during that bear market?

还有，这个策略实际贡献了多少收益？

And, like, how much actual performance was contributed by this strategy?

今年上半年，基本上全靠它。

During the first half of this year, effectively, all of it.

就是说，它帮我们挺过了熊市，让我们能套现，然后投到我们看好的项目上，同时建立相应的仓位，这样我们才能在现在这种时候跑赢大盘。

Like, it it sort of got us through the bear market and allowed us to harvest cash that we deployed into things we like them alongside into correspond positions so that we would be in a good position to outperform times like now.

所以，这基本上就是我们今年上半年的全部利润来源，也让我们降低了基金的波动性。

And and so it was it was essentially all of our p and l for the first half of this year, and it allowed us to reduce the volatility of the fund.

当然，在现在这种时候，我们在空头仓位上会放弃一点上涨空间，但总的来说，持有这些股票让我觉得很安心，因为真的很难想象它们会怎样。

And, of course, we're giving up a little bit of upside on on the short book at times like this, but, overall, I just feel really comfortable sitting in some of these names that, again, it's just hard to imagine.

你知道，我们一个主要的论点就是，加密货币正在从投机转向基本面驱动。

You know, one of our kind of overarching DCs is that crypto is going from speculative to fundamentals.

为什么这个资产类别就应该和地球上其他所有资产类别不一样呢？

It's like, why should this asset class be different than every other asset class on Earth?

人们想买那些好的、能赚钱的、能给股东或代币持有者回报的企业。

Like, people wanna buy businesses that are good, that make money, that return money to to to shareholders or token holders.

这些都不是什么有争议的事情。

Like, this isn't this isn't, like, controversial stuff.

而且，你知道，在过去的几周、几个月里，找做多的机会稍微容易了一些，但找做空的机会仍然非常容易。

And, you know, in the last couple of weeks, months, it's gotten a little bit easier to find longs, but it's still really easy to find shorts.

有很多项目，它们的收入远远达不到你根据那个估值水平所预期的水平。

There are a lot of projects that simply aren't generating anywhere near the revenue that you would expect from, you know, from a from a company with with that level of valuation.

所以这不一定是在说这些项目不好。

And so it's not necessarily to say, you know, these projects are bad.

在很多情况下，它们可能并不差。

In many cases, they may not be.

但可以说，我们处于一个独特的位置，作为流动性投资者，你可以看到什么在起作用，什么不起作用，并且你可以同时接触到这两方面。

But it is to say sort of in a unique position where, you know, as as liquid investors, you can look at what's working, you can look at what's not working, and and you can get exposure to both.

但同时，做多比做空更容易赚钱。

But at the same time, it's a lot easier to make money on the long side than it is on the short side.

在任何市场里，做空基金都不多，这是有原因的。

It's it's there's a reason there aren't many many short selling funds really in any market.

做空真的是一种很难盈利的方式。

It's it's a really hard way to to gain.

比如说，你的上涨空间是有限的。

Like, your upside is capped.

它最多只能跌到百分之百。

It can only go down a 100%.

所以我们非常把它看作是更全面策略的一部分，而且在加密货币领域特别有效，因为有很多代币坦白说应该归零。

And and so we, you know, we very much view it as a component of a more comprehensive strategy and one that works uniquely well in crypto because there are so many tokens that frankly deserve to go to zero.

谢谢你的这些见解。

I appreciate the the thoughts on that.

做空非常危险，虽然最大损失是百分之百，但风险始终存在。

Shorting is very dangerous, and, you know, a 100% loss is is the cap, but it's still always a risk.

所以……

So

另外我想提的是，我们采取组合投资的方式。

And the other thing I'll mention here is that, we we take a basket approach.

所以，是的，我提到特朗普，因为那是我们最看好的之一，我们相应地调整了仓位。

And so, yeah, I called out Trump because that's one of the favorites, and we size it accordingly.

但是，我们核心做多的是五到十个，而做空的可能有好几十个。

But whereas we have a core five to 10 core longs, we're looking at, you know, a couple dozen shorts.

而且，把它组合成一个篮子来做，能帮助对冲掉一些单只股票的波动风险。

And and and and structuring it as a basket helps insulate against some of that single name volatility.

如果仓位管理得当，你就有机会增加你的持仓。

And if it's sized correctly, you have the opportunity to increase your position.

你绝对不想陷入那种做空翻倍、不得不因为占仓位太重而平仓的境地。

You never wanna get into a position where you're short doubles and you have to close it because it's too much of your book.

我们总是希望能在价格飙升的时候加仓，真正去接住那些逼空行情的另一面。

We always wanna be in the position where we can we can add on on a rip and and and really sort of take the other side of those of those short squeezes.

明白了。

Gotcha.

好的。

Okay.

管理一个做空组合确实有很多讲究。

And there's a lot that goes into managing a short book.

这可不是件容易的事。

It's not, the easiest thing in the world.

我想把话题转回多头这边，因为现在大家的关注点主要在这儿，听众也会更感兴趣。

I do wanna pivot this back towards the long conversation because that's where I think a lot of attention is right now and where a lot of audience is gonna be interested.

我很想听听你对价值累积这个观点的看法，以及推动当前估值的基本面因素。

I wanna hear your thoughts on this value accrual thesis and the fundamentals that are driving valuations here.

我知道你们内部肯定也经常讨论这个问题，就像我们大家一样，那你觉得目前情况如何？

Where I'm sure you debate this all the time internally too, like all of us do, but where do you see that landing right now?

另外，我想把这点跟加密资产里的股票也联系起来。我觉得你最近两个长线持仓都在股票领域，这让我觉得它们正好能融入我们之前聊的价值捕获话题里，也能反映你在那边看到的情况。

And, you know, I I wanna also tie this to crypto equities because I think two of your most recent, long positions have been in the equity space, and it just fit that into that value accrual conversation for me and and what you're seeing there.

今年早些时候我们注意到一个挺有意思的现象：整个DeFi板块的盈利倍数大幅下降了。

One of the most interesting things we noticed earlier this year was that the earnings multiple on DeFi in aggregate had come way, way down.

所以我想几年前，整体的倍数大概是一百，后来降到五十，再后来是二十。

So I think a couple of years ago, the sort of, like, aggregate multiple was a 100, and then it was 50, and then it was 20.

你去参加那些行业会议的时候，经常能听到大家说，嗯，现在估值差不多已经回到合理区间了。

And you would, like, go to these conferences, and and you could sort of hear people say, like, well, you know, it's it's, like, kind of in the strike zone here.

很难想象它还会跌更多，但它确实跌了，而且还在继续跌。

Hard to imagine it going down much much more, and it and it did, and it continued to.

而今年，我觉得DeFi整体收益的市盈率大概在10倍左右。

And and this year, I think the the the aggregate multiple in DeFi earnings was, like, 10.

所以我们当时看了看，觉得这是个很好的机会，可以买入这些业务市盈率感觉已经见底的时候。

And and so we sort of looked at that and thought this was a really good opportunity to buy what felt like the bottom in terms of the earnings multiple on these businesses.

你知道，我经常被提醒加密货币的反身性有多强。

You know, constantly reminded of how reflexive crypto is.

这也是为什么熊市这么痛苦，因为当你依赖链上收入时，链上活动一消失，收入就没了。

And and and this is why the bear markets hurt so much is because when you're dependent on generating on chain revenue and on chain activity goes away, revenue goes away.

所以业务突然看起来非常非常糟糕。

And so the business all of a sudden starts to look really, really bad.

但这次熊市我们注意到，其实还有很多协议仍在产生收入。

But what we noticed this bear market was that there were actually many protocols that were still generating some revenue.

市场给它们的市盈率感觉不公平。

The earnings multiple that the market was giving them felt unfair.

所以当我们看到这些倍数被压缩时，我们就慢慢接受了现实，是的，它们可能还会继续压缩，但感觉低得不合理。

And so we've as we've watched these these multiples compress, you know, we just got comfy with the with, you know, the reality of, yes, they could compress more, but these feel unfairly low.

当我们退一步看整体情况时，很明显，作为加密货币投资者，你确实需要不断判断自己处在什么位置。

And when we we zoomed out and we thought about what was happening, it was clear that, yeah, you're you're you're constantly, I think, a as a crypto investor, sort of trying to track where we are.

就像有一条价格走势线，然后基本面在线的上下波动。

You know, it's like you've got the the price action on on on sort of one line, and then you've got the fundamentals, which are sort of going above and below the line.

感觉基本面已经变得太便宜了。

And and it just felt like the, you know, the fundamentals had had gotten had gotten too cheap.

所以我们投资的大部分项目，除了主流币种之外，都是链上金融。

So you you most of the stuff that we're in outside of the majors is is on chain finance.

我的意思是，这是加密货币中真正有效的部分，也是我们大部分多头头寸所在。

I mean, that's the thing in crypto that's that's really working, and and that's where most of our longs are.

你知道，加密货币的一个奇怪之处在于，你待得越久，账户似乎就越多。

You know, one of the weird things about crypto is that the longer you're in it, the more accounts you seem to end up with.

你在一个地方买入，在另一个地方交易，在别的地方赚收益，然后……

You buy in one place, trade somewhere else, earn yield somewhere else, and

如果你真的需要资金，最后往往得卖掉一些你本来想留着的资产。

if you actually need capital, you end up having to sell something that you probably wanted to keep.

这就是为什么我们Milk Road要和Nexo合作。

That's why we at Milk Road are partnering with Nexo.

他们能把所有东西都放在一个账户里。

These guys keep the whole thing under one account.

你可以买卖加密货币，对已有的持仓赚取利息，甚至可以用你的资本做抵押借款，而不必

You can buy, trade crypto, earn interest on what you already hold, and even borrow against your capital without having

卖掉它。

to sell it.

所有操作都在一个地方，一个账户，全在Nexo上。

All in one spot, all in one account, all on Nexo.

所以如果你需要流动性，但不想放弃仓位，或者你已经持有加密货币，想

So if you need liquidity, but you don't wanna give up your position or you're already holding crypto and you wanna be

更好地利用它，

able to do more with it,

我觉得Nexo值得你花时间了解一下。

I think Nexo is worth your time.

我们很喜欢和他们合作。

We love working with them.

我觉得你也会喜欢的。

I think you will too.

告诉他们，是Milk Road推荐你来的。

Tell them Milk Road sent you.

好，那我们聊聊链上金融吧。

Well, let's talk about some on chain finance then.

今天有个公告，不过等这期节目发布的时候，应该是两天前的事了。

There was an announcement today, which will be, I think, two days ago when this episode is released.

但今天早上，Galaxy把1亿美元的sUSDS加进了他们的公司金库。

But this morning, Galaxy added a $100,000,000 of sUSDS to its corporate treasury.

他们已经批准SUSDS作为他们机构交易业务中合格的抵押资产。

They've approved SUSDS as an eligible collateral asset across their institutional trading business.

这看起来像是机构开始采用链上金融了，我很想听听你的看法，因为我觉得你们一直对Sky挺看好的，现在机构似乎也开始接受了。

This seems like some institutional adoption of on chain finance, and I'm curious your thoughts on this because I think you guys have been kind of, like, pretty bullish on Sky for a while, and it seems like the institutions are starting to adopt this.

你对此怎么看？还有链上金融的构建布局，你有什么想法？

What's your view on this, and and build setup here for for on chain finance?

我们从它还是Maker的时候就开始持有Sky了。

We've been holding Sky since it was maker.

而且，你知道，我觉得它是个被误解的协议，某种程度上也是他们自己造成的。

And, you know, I just think it's a it's it's sort of a misunderstood protocol, somewhat of their own doing.

我觉得那次品牌重塑搞得很乱。

I think the rebrand was messy.

治理结构也很复杂。

I think the governance is complicated.

结果就是，人们很难理解这到底是什么。

And as a result, people have had a hard time wrapping their mind around what this is.

但归根结底，它存在的时间跟其他项目一样长。

But at the end of the day, it's been around as long as anything.

从盈利和市盈率来看，它非常便宜。

It is extremely cheap on on in terms of just earnings and and and the multiple.

而且，我们最坚定的看法之一就是，未来链上会有更多的稳定币。

And, you know, we I I would say the the kind of one of the sort of highest conviction viewpoints we have is that there will be more stablecoins on chain in the future.

它仅次于USDC和USDT。

And it's behind USDC and USDT.

它是链上最好的稳定币。

It's the best stablecoin on chain.

所以对我们来说，我们就是看到这一点，作为长期持仓感到非常安心，而且说实话，我们对Sky Foundation的一些招聘也感到非常鼓舞，他们引进了一些人，会去促成像你提到的与Galaxy那样的交易。

And so for us, you know, we just look at that and and just feel really comfy in it as a as a long term position and have honestly been really, really also encouraged by, you know, some of the hires they've made with Sky Foundation and and and, you know, bringing people aboard that are gonna go out and do deals like the ones you mentioned with Galaxy.

我认为加密货币这个成长和青春期阶段的一部分，就是弄清楚价值在哪里。

I think part of this growing up and this adolescent phase for crypto is figuring out where the value is.

而且我认为很多价值在于链上和链下之间那种混乱的灰色地带。

And I think a lot of the value is in the sort of messy gray area in between on chain and off chain.

比如，我们感觉自托管的链上用户的增长已经到头了，下一波增长将来自机构资本。

Like, it feels to us like we've exhausted, you know, the growth of the sort of self custodied on chain user, and the next leg of growth is gonna come from institutional capital.

机构资本想和其他严肃的人做交易。

Institutional capital wants to do deals with other serious people.

所以你需要有团队出去，去讲好这个故事。

And so you need teams that are gonna go out, and they're gonna they're gonna tell the story.

而且，你知道，他们要确保安全。

And, you know, they're gonna they're gonna they're gonna make it safe.

他们要让它变得交钥匙。

They're gonna make it turnkey.

我觉得这就是你开始从Sky身上看到的东西。

And and I think that's what you're starting to see from from Sky.

你知道，我们长期持有的另一个仓位是Syrup。

You know, another another position we've held for a long time is Syrup.

那些人出去，开发业务把它带到链上，然后提供基础设施，让这一切变得更好、更快、更便宜。

Like, those guys are going out, and and and they're and they're developing business to bring it on chain and then providing the infrastructure that actually allows that to happen better, faster, cheaper.

哦，完全披露。

Oh, full disclosure.

这两个我也都有持仓，所以你说的我完全理解。

I have positions in both of these too, so I I I get where you're coming from on this.

但我觉得市场上存在一些矛盾，我想问你一个问题，听听你的看法。因为渣打银行出来说，Sky 正在扮演 DeFi 央行的角色，还说他们发放了 60 亿美元的贷款。

But I think there's some tension here in the market, and I I wanna kinda ask this question and get your thoughts on this because Standard Chartered came out and said that Sky was acting as DeFi's federal bank, and they said that they're doing $6,000,000,000 of lending.

他们还设定了一个目标价，是 Sky 目前价格的五倍。

They had a price target that they set, which is five x from where Sky is right now.

然而，与此同时，Sky 刚刚交出了有史以来最好的季度业绩之一，但他们把大量收入转入了储备金，而不是用于代币回购。

However, at the same time, you know, Sky, it just posted one of its best quarters ever, but they're redirecting a lot of that revenue towards a reserve as opposed to token buybacks.

所以代币价格虽然没有下跌，但也没有对这样的增长做出太大反应。

And so the token price has been, you know, not flat, but not super responsive to this growth.

你心里是怎么看待这个矛盾的？你觉得我们什么时候才能看到这个 DeFi 央行的成功开始反映在 Sky 的代币价格上？

How do you resolve this tension in your mind, and when do you think we're gonna start to see sort of the success of this DeFi Federal Bank start to be reflected in the token price of Sky?

这个问题问得好。

It's a fair question.

我不太花时间想什么时候的问题。

I don't spend that much time thinking about when.

如果我们对团队和价值有信心，我们很乐意等待那一天的到来。

If we have conviction in the team and we have conviction in the value, we're pretty comfortable waiting for that to happen.

我当然不认为我们在预测价格走势方面有什么优势。

I don't I certainly don't think we have any edge on sort of figuring out, you know, when price action is gonna happen.

至于DeFi代币，我觉得算是稳步增长，但不算爆发式增长。

As far as, you know, DeFi tokens go, it's been, I would say, steady but not explosive.

而且从某种程度上说，我觉得这使它成为投资组合中有价值的一部分。

And, you know, on some level, I think that makes it a valuable part of portfolio.

你可以把它想象成类似60/40的股票和债券组合。

You know, sort of think of it as like, you know, it's like the sixty forty stocks bond.

它就像加密投资组合中的债券部分，因为相当稳健。

It's like your it's like the bond section of a crypto portfolio in the sense that, you know, it's it's you know, it's pretty sturdy.

但我们愿意长期持有，也愿意看到团队自己决定如何分配资本。

But we're comfortable with a long term view on it and comfortable with with really seeing the team make the decision on how they wanna allocate capital.

我们并不是死板地坚持回购或储备金。

Like, we're not dogmatic about buybacks versus reserves.

我觉得两种方式都行。

Like, you know, I think either can work.

就看情况了。

It sort of just depends.

另外，我觉得Sky被严重低估的一点是，质押奖励非常丰厚。

And the other thing that I think is really underappreciated about Sky is that the stake rewards are terrific.

所以很长一段时间里，你都能按你持有的Sky仓位价值，也就是你质押的Sky持仓价值，获得20%的USDS收益。

And so for a long time, you were earning, you know, 20 percent paid out in USDS on the value of your Sky position, on the value of your stake Sky Holdings.

所以，如果你在质押、在收奖励，而且币价没有大跌，那耐心持有就很容易了。

And so, you know, if you're staking and you're collecting rewards and the coin's not dumping, you know, pretty easy to be patient.

嗯，在这种环境下，耐心确实是一种美德。

Well, patience is a virtue, I think, in this environment.

Greg，我想问你点别的事。

Greg, I wanna ask you about something else.

最近关于永续合约平台的竞争，大家关注度很高。

There have been a lot of there's been a lot of attention on this war about perpetuals platforms.

Hyperliquid和Lighter在这方面受到了很多关注。

Hyperliquid and lighter have gotten a lot of attention in this.

这两家都有回购计划。

Both of them have buyback programs.

我很好奇你的看法，因为这周我们请到了Proper的Lewis，他是一家在Hyperliquid上的自营交易基金公司的代表。

I'm curious your view on this because this this week we've had Lewis from Proper, which is a prop trading fund a company rather on hyper liquid.

我们还请到了Trevor King，他是Lighter的增长负责人。

We've also had Trevor King who's the head of growth at lighter.

我最近听到了很多关于永续合约作为资产类别和数字资产新兴领域的讨论和关注。

And I I've just been, like, hearing a lot of conversation and attention on perps as an asset class and as an emerging sector of digital assets.

你对此有什么看法？围绕这个主题，你的资金配置是怎么做的？

What's your view on this, and, you know, where are you allocating your capital around this thesis?

我们很喜欢永续合约。

I mean, we love perps.

我一开始就提到过，我们基本上从DeFi夏季开始就一直在投资永续合约。

I mentioned at the outset that we've been investing in perps since the, basically, the beginning of DeFi summer.

而且，我们的看法是，对于大多数使用场景，尤其是零售用户来说，它们是一种更优越的杠杆工具。

And, you know, our view is is that they are a superior instrument for leverage for most use cases, certainly for retail.

我们也不认为这是赢家通吃的局面。

We also don't view it as winner takes all.

所以，我们同时持有Hype和Lit。

And so, you know, we hold both hype and lit.

我们认为它们都很棒。

We think they're both awesome.

我们认为两个团队都很出色。

We think both teams are awesome.

我们认为两者的价值积累都很好。

We think the value accrual on both is great.

而且，我们认为两者都有很大的发展空间。

And, you know, we think there's room for for both to really do well.

其实，我们持有Hype的时间比持有Lit的时间更长。

I mean, our, you've held hot for a longer time than we've held lit.

Lit或者Leiter就是一个很好的例子，说明了其中一种陷阱。

Lit is or Leiter is a good example of sort of the one of the pitfalls.

它们刚出来的时候，很难搞清楚实际使用量有多少，以及考虑到空投和挖矿的激励，这个使用量的折扣率应该怎么定。

When they first came out, it was really hard to untangle how much of the usage was actually you know, like, what the discount rate should be on that usage given the the incentives around around the airdrop and around farming.

所以那是一个我们采取观望态度的例子，我们等它找到底部，不仅是价格上的底部，更是使用量上的底部，想看看没有激励时的使用量会是什么样子。

And so that's one where we took a wait and see approach, and and we we sort of waited for it to find a bottom both not just in terms of price, but really in terms of usage and wanted to see what the unincentivized usage would look like.

当使用量稳定下来，价格也跟着稳定的时候，我们才放心地建了大仓位。

And and when that leveled off and price sort of joined it, you know, we got comfortable taking a big position there.

我们非常喜欢他们在美国市场采取的策略。

And we really, really like the approach that they're taking in The US market.

我觉得他们的另一个转折点是和Robinhood的合作，以及为那个产品提供支持。

Like, the other inflection point, I think, for them was was the was the deal with Robinhood and and and powering that product.

我们只是觉得还有很多金融科技平台会受益于向用户提供永续合约，而且我们很看好他们会更愿意使用像Lighter这样的基础设施，而不是自己从头开始搭建。

And and we just think there's plenty of other fintech platforms that would benefit from offering perps to their users and just bullish that they would rather use infrastructure like lighter than, than try and figure out how to build it from scratch themselves.

我非常喜欢这个观点。

I like that perspective a lot.

我觉得这有点像以太坊和Solana之间的讨论。

I think it's a little bit like the Ethereum Solana conversation.

你不必看空一个，同时看多另一个。

You don't have to be bearish on one and bullish on the other.

它们可以一起成长，我觉得也应该这样。

They can both grow together, and I think they should.

好的。

Alright.

Greg，最后我想听听你对今年剩余时间最看好的东西有什么想法，因为我们聊了一些你非常看好的东西，你说过你对这些操作有耐心和信心。

Greg, I wanna end with some thoughts on what you're most bullish on for the rest of this year because we talked about a few things you're very bullish on, and you said you've you've got patience and conviction in these plays.

但市场上有很多东西在涨。

But there's a lot of things that are pumping on the market.

比如Zcash、Venice、Near，还有Uniswap。

There's like Zcash and Venice and Near and just like Uniswap.

到处都是，各种东西都在飙升。

All over the place, there's stuff ripping.

我很好奇，有没有我们还没聊到的、你觉得今年下半年特别看好的东西，或者你对从现在到2020年底市场会怎么走有什么看法？

And I'm curious if there's something we haven't talked about that you think you're particularly bullish on, for the rest of the year or just like how you think the market unfolds from here going into the end of twenty twenty

我觉得我们最关注的是那些正在从“烂代币”变成“好代币”的项目。

I think the thing that we're watching most closely is the the tokens and the projects that are going from bad token to good token.

就是说，以前可能没有价值捕获机制，或者解锁时间表很混乱，但现在他们主动去改变这些，因为他们看到市场会奖励那些在这方面做得好的项目。

So, you know, maybe in the past, didn't have anything around value accrual or, you know, had really messy unlock schedules and are proactively trying to change that because they've seen the market reward the projects that actually do a good job with this.

所以有几个名字。

So a couple of names.

Athena、EFI、GRASS。

Athena, EFI, GRASS.

这些项目，至少在我们看来，以前因为代币持有者结构、收入不透明或者不确定性，几乎没法投资，但现在他们在投资者关系上下了真功夫，告诉我们这些人他们在做什么、怎么做、赚多少钱，让我们有信心去评估这些业务。

These are projects that are are going from, at least in our minds, sort of quasi uninvestable based on, you know, who is holding the token or uncertainty, opacity around their revenues and now making a real effort on the investor relations front to tell people like us what they're doing, how they're doing it, how much money they're making, and giving us the confidence to underwrite those businesses.

所以我想说，我们最兴奋的就是，你知道，我之前跟你说过，有段时间真的很难找到做多的标的。

So I would say that's where we're most excited is is just looking you know, I said this to you before, but, like, for a while, it was really hard to find longs.

你能数得过来的、真正产生收入并给代币持有者带来价值的加密协议，一只手就数得过来。

You could sort of, like, count on one hand the number of protocols and crypto that were actually generating revenue and accruing value to token holders.

你知道，这个名单还是不长，就看你想不想仔细看了。

You know, the list is still short depending on how hard you wanna squint.

大概也就十个或二十个吧。

It's, you know, 10 names or 20 names.

我觉得最让我们兴奋的是那些认真对待这件事的项目，它们把自己放到了好项目、好代币的象限里。

I think what we're most excited about is is is the is the projects that are taking that seriously and and sort of putting themselves into the quadrant of of good project, good token.

这其实就是持续关注链上数据这些好资源，看看增长发生在哪里。

It's just a function of sort of keeping an eye on all the wonderful resources out there with regard to on chain data and and seeing where the growth is happening.

Greg Viverito，TAG Capital 的普通合伙人。

Greg Viverito, TAG Capital general partner.

非常感谢你来做客 Milk Road 加密节目。

Thank you so much for being on Milk Road crypto.

我觉得这里面有很多干货和智慧，听到你如何应对这些市场真的很有帮助。

I think there's a lot of alpha and wisdom in this, and just it's really helpful to hear how you're navigating these markets.

我们该让大家去哪里找到你以及你的更多工作呢？

Where can we send people to find more of you and your work online?

我们的季度信函发布在Substack上，就是tagfund.substack.com。

So our, our quarterly letters are published on our Substack, tagfund.substack.com.

接下来几周我们会在那里发布下一封信，记得去看看。

We'll be posting our our next letter there in the coming weeks, so check that out.

另外，我在Twitter上也很活跃，欢迎大家随时来聊。

And then I'm on Twitter and and happy to chop it up with anyone.

好的，Greg，希望很快能再请你上节目，我们再聊聊。

Well, Greg, I hope we can have you back on the show to catch up again soon.

非常感谢你来做客Milk Road crypto。

Thanks so much for being on Milk Road crypto.

谢谢，John。

Thanks, John.

感谢大家的收听。

Thank you all for joining us.

希望你们今天都有所收获。

I hope you all learned something today.

那么，下次再见，注意安全，保持学习，保持乐观，我们下期Milk Road加密节目再见。

So until next time, stay safe, stay educated, stay bullish, and we will see you all on the next episode of Milk Road crypto.

感谢大家的收听。

Thanks for being here, everyone.

再见。

Bye.

感谢收听Milk Road。

Thanks for listening to Milk Road.

如果你喜欢这个节目，记得点赞和订阅。

If you enjoyed the show, make sure you like and subscribe.

如果你在市场中难以找到赢家，这正是Milk Road Pro的用武之地。

And if you're struggling to find winners in the market, that's exactly what Milk Road Pro is built for.

我们的分析师提前发现了许多最大的赢家，Pro让你看到他们接下来买什么，每一笔交易，以及每个仓位背后的研究。

Our analysts have called some of the biggest winners early, and Pro lets you see what they're buying next, every trade they make, and the research behind every position.

点击下方链接，查看Milk Road Pro。

Check out Milk Road Pro at the link below.

你在Milk Road上听到的所有内容仅供参考。

Everything you hear on Milk Road is for informational purposes only.

这些都是我们的个人观点，不是财务建议，而且我们可能持有我们讨论的一些投资。

These are our personal opinions, not financial advice, and we may own some of the investments we talk about.

一定要自己做研究，做出适合自己的决定。

Always do your own research and make the decisions that are right for you.

下次见。

See you next time.