#1078 - 工作室派对：印度情结、赌战争与汤姆·克鲁斯

我们还会看到他们结束恋爱，或者无法在曾经美好的关系中感受到爱意。

We will also see them fall out of love or be unable to feel it in relationships that were previously great.

如果你的女朋友或男朋友开始使用GLP药物，而你们的关系开始出现问题，很可能就是这个原因。

If your girlfriend or boyfriend started taking GLPs and your relationship started failing, there's a good chance that's why.

哇。

Wow.

这让我想起了他叫什么来着？

This sparked I went back to what was his name?

你能往上滚动一点吗？

Can you scroll up a bit?

是沈勇医生吗？

Doctor Shen Yong?

是沈勇阳吗？

Shen Yong Yang?

这个

This the

刚才试着念出那个名字的勇气？

bravery of trying to pronounce that just now?

我我

I I

没有。

did not.

在直播中？

On air?

我觉得我挺糟糕的。

I think I was pretty gross.

你是最棒的。

You are the greatest.

你做得很好。

You did great.

那真是

That was

就他妈是个掷骰子。

just a fucking dice roll.

但他立刻就说出来了。

But he said it instantly.

勇气不就是在恐惧中采取行动吗？

What is courage, but taking action in fear?

我觉得这个，这个，我今天又去看了他的推特，找到了这个。

I think the the this I went back to his Twitter today to find this.

天啊。

Holy shit.

他因此在评论区引发了风暴，很多人跑去指责他。

He created a storm in his mentions of people coming after him for this.

因为老兄，他是AI吗？

Because Bro, is he AI?

看看这张头像。

Look at this profile picture.

哦，也许吧。

Oh, perhaps.

我没看那么深。

I didn't look that deep.

他为什么有个金色箭头？看起来他是不是死了？

Why does he have a golden arrow on looks like Is he dead?

真有意思。

So interesting.

他发那条推文可能是因为大药厂找上他了。

He might be after that tweet because big pharma got him.

不是。

No.

我开玩笑的。

I'm kidding.

在韩国釜山经营一家整形外科诊所。

Running a plastic surgery clinic in Busan, Korea.

我打赌他忙得要死。

I bet he is busy as fuck.

想想有多少韩国人做整形手术，老兄。

Think about how many Koreans get plastic surgery, dude.

我知道。

I know.

太疯狂了。

It's crazy.

哦，所以他只是反对？所以他一直反对GLP类药物。

Oh, is he just anti So he's been anti GLPs.

他这几天一直在猛烈抨击这一点，他说有一群销售GLP类药物的医生找上他，因为他们是股东，这一切都是大阴谋的一部分。

He's been hammering this for days, and he said that a bunch of physicians that sell GLPs came after him because they're shareholders, and it's all part of the big scheme.

但基本上，我觉得这源于某种理论，如果它作用于相同的多巴胺通路，理论上是说得通的。

But there's basically, think this is rooted in theory, and it makes sense theoretically if it acts on the same dopaminergic pathways.

但关键是，它不仅仅抑制食欲，而是直接摧毁了你整体的驱动力。

But the very concept of the fact that it doesn't just kill your appetite, it just kills your drive in general.

它只是在不直接进食的情况下给你多巴胺的满足感。

It just gives you the dopamine fill without It it

它对食物以外的更多东西都有效，这相当有趣。

works for more stuff than just food, which is pretty interesting.

是的。

Yeah.

它似乎对大麻也有效。

It seems to work on weed.

它似乎对行为成瘾、酗酒也有效，

It seems to work on behavioral addictions, alcoholism,

游戏。

gaming.

赌博。

Gambling.

对。

Yeah.

赌博。

Gambling.

所以，像这种迷恋到底是什么？

So the fact that like, what is limerence?

吸引力是什么？

What is attraction?

你知道，其实是一回事。

You know, it's the same thing.

这是血清素水平的下降。

It's this dropping of serotonin.

肾上腺素、去甲肾上腺素和多巴胺的水平大幅上升。

It's massive increase in epinephrine, norepinephrine, dopamine.

就是不停地兴奋、兴奋、兴奋、兴奋、兴奋，就像一种极度痴迷的暗恋阶段。

It's just rush, rush, rush, rush, rush, like a very obsessed crush phase.

还有一件非常有趣的事情与此类似，叫PSSD，即SSRI停药后性功能障碍。

There's a really interesting thing that's similar to that, PSSD, post SSRI sexual dysfunction.

当人们服用SSRI类药物时，他们的性欲可能会下降。

So when people are on SSRIs, their sex drive can go down.

但如果你长期服用，或者在青春期期间服用——现在越来越多的年轻人在年幼时就被开这种药——这种影响可能会永久持续。

But if you take them for a long enough period, or if you take them, especially during puberty, and increasingly more young people are getting them prescribed when they're young, this can lock in for the rest of time.

你可能会出现生殖器麻木，丧失在性行为中感知身体感受的能力。

You can get genital numbing, the pathways that just allow you to feel what's going on during sex.

他们等于被阉割了。

They get neutered.

你的性欲会变得如此低下，以至于有大量人群试图重新点燃、重启自己的性冲动，他们很可能就是那些在看BDSM色情片的人。

Your drive gets so there's all of these groups of people who are trying to reignite, re kickstart their own they're probably the ones that are watching the fucking BDSM port.

他们需要不断升级刺激。

They need to escalate.

但没错，加上女性服用激素避孕药导致性欲下降、迫使她们选择原本不会被吸引的伴侣，再加上GLP和SSRI的影响，性欲衰退根本不足为奇。

But, yeah, between that and hormonal birth control for women driving down their sex drive and making them choose guys that they wouldn't be attracted to if they weren't on it, and GLPs and SSRI, like, it is the sex recession is just not a surprise

一点都不奇怪。

at all.

这根本不足为奇。

It's just not a surprise.

如果你还在有性生活，那你就是少数派。

Like, if you're having sex, you're in the minority.

如果基尔斯玛打电话给你说，我们要让你当首席性官

If Kirstama calls you up and says, we're gonna make you chief sex

性官。

Sex officer.

你打算怎么办

What what do

你该怎么做来改善这种情况？

you do to what do you do to improve the situation?

嗯，你不能把

Well, you can't pull

人们从SSRI药物上撤下来，因为有些人确实需要它。

people off SSRIs because some of them need it.

即使他们不需要，他们也会反抗，所以这可不是好事。

And even if they don't need it, they're gonna rebel, so that wouldn't be good.

不能让人停用GLP类药物，因为这也会很糟糕，而且他们可能很快就会去世。

Can't pull people off GLP ones because it's also gonna be pretty bad, and maybe they were gonna die soon too.

我认为男女混合的空间，工作场所应该允许约会。

I think co ed spaces, dating should be allowed at work.

显然，总会有一些副作用的波及范围发生。

Obviously, there's always gonna be some blast radius of side effects that happen.

你会惹上麻烦，因为总会有一些男人不懂得接受拒绝，以错误的方式跨越界限。

You're gonna get in trouble because there's gonna be some guy that doesn't take no for an answer and is blowing through boundaries in a wrong way.

但我认为很重要的一点是让男性变得更勇敢，因为男性原本就比较胆怯，不敢主动接近女性。

But I think a big part of it is making guys braver, because guys were already pretty timid and approaching women.

如今在#MeToo运动之后，每个人都害怕了。

Now post Me Too, everyone's terrified.

所以我们要重新鼓励男性。

So trying to re encourage men.

我的意思是，你以前听过我说过这个，但‘我也是’运动告诫男性不要对女性过于主动，结果只让那些本来就紧张的男性受到了影响。

I mean, you've heard me do this before, but like the Me Too instruction of men don't be pushy with women only landed with guys that were already nervous with women.

那些真正越界、迫切需要‘我也是’运动警示的人，根本就没把这当回事。

The dudes that were blowing through boundaries and really needed to have the Me Too revolution like hit them, they just didn't take took no heed of it.

这些是过度响应建议的人，你能

These are advice hyper responders, Could you

解释一下吗？

explain that?

这是

It's one

我最欣赏你的观点之一——过度响应建议的人。

of my favorite ideas of yours, the advice hyper responder.

所以建议的传达并不是均匀分布的。

So advice doesn't land evenly.

它更像酒精的分布，而不是药物的分布。

It sort of distributes more like alcohol than it does medicine.

真正需要接受这些建议的人毫无改变，而那些已经过度吸收的人则吸收得更多。

The people who really need to take it are unchanged, while the people that are already overdosing on it take too much.

想想‘再努力一点’这个建议。

So, think about the advice to just work harder.

那个整天躺在沙发上偷懒的人，根本没变。

The lazy person who spends all of their time on the couch, they're unchanged.

他们甚至觉得这和自己没关系。

They don't even see it apply to them.

而那些本来就觉得自己不够努力的人，反而被推得更加拼命。

Whereas the person who already believes like they're not working hard enough, that pushes them to work even more.

多承担一些责任。

Take more responsibility.

那个认为一切本来就是自己过错的女孩，决定要承担更多的负担，背起本不属于她的包袱；而那些把责任推给他人的人，则再次安然无恙地滑了过去。

The the girl who believes that everything is already her fault decides that she needs to bear even more of the burden and carry bags that aren't hers when the person who points the finger elsewhere just, again, coasts past it unchanged.

对男性要敞开心扉、更富有同情心的建议，那些本来就过于敏感、动不动就流泪的男性，会把这当作自己情感上依然不足的证明。

The instruction for men to open up and be more sensitive, the existing sensitive guys who are already kind of opening their hearts far too much and crying at things that they shouldn't do, they take that as an indication that they're already emotionally insufficient.

而那些冷漠的婴儿潮一代，根本毫无影响。

Whereas the stoic boomer, just, you know, no impact at all.

所以，这就是给出笼统建议的问题之一。

So it's one of the problems with giving blanket coverage advice.

这就是为什么在节目里，以及我现在的所有写作中，我对说‘这适用于每个人’变得非常谨慎。

It's why on the show and with everything that I write now, I'm so much more hesitant about saying this works for everyone.

而且几乎总是附带说明：如果这听起来适用于你，那很可能确实如此。

And it's almost always caveated with, if this sounds like it applies to you, it probably does.

但你还会遇到那种过度反应型的建议接受者，这或许只是印证了你的恐惧。

But then you've got the advice hyper responder thing, which is maybe it just confirms your fears.

它或许只是把你推向了你原本就打算走的方向。

Maybe it already pushes you in the direction that you were going previously.

所以，当充斥着这么多……那到底是什么的时候，要在这个世界里找到方向确实很难。

So, yeah, it's a difficult world to navigate when there's lots of what's that?

那句纳瓦尔的话？

That Naval line?

如果你接受足够多的自我建议，足够多的个人发展建议，最终都会归于零。

If you take enough self advice, take enough, personal development advice, it all just nets out to zero.

对。

Right.

是的。

Yeah.

因为每一个格言都有一个同等的反面。

Just for every every maxim has an equal.

我实际上觉得这在某种程度上是有用的，因为当你非常敬重的两个人完全相反时，你几乎会感到，就像有两股力量在拉扯你。

I I actually think that's useful in a way because when you have two people that you deeply respect, that are completely the opposite, you almost go, you kind of, it's like two things pulling you in that direction.

结果你反而会保持静止。

You kind of stay still as a result.

我最喜爱的故事之一，叫做‘有史以来最伟大的网球比赛’。

Like one of my favorite stories of all time was it's the greatest tennis match of all time is what it's called.

那是诺瓦克·德约科维奇对阵拉斐尔·纳达尔。

It's Novak Djokovic versus Rafael Nadal.

这场比赛打了五盘。

It goes on for five sets.

我觉得大概持续了七个半小时。

I think it's about seven and a half hours.

中间有一次因雨暂停。

There's a rain break in between.

我认为纳达尔先领先，德约科维奇又追回，然后纳达尔再次领先。

I think Nadal takes the lead, Djokovic takes it back, Nadal takes the lead.

有一个抢七局持续了大约七十分钟。

There's a tie break that's about seventy minutes long.

其中一个抢七局持续了七十分钟。

Well, one tie break is seventy minutes long.

他们比赛结束时已经是凌晨1点40分，德约科维奇直接倒下了。

They finished the game and I think it's 01:40AM and Djokovic just collapses.

在他的传记中，有一段特别精彩的内容，他谈到自律，说这就是获胜所需要的付出。

And there's a part, there's this amazing part in Djokovic's biography where he's talking about discipline and he's talking about this is what it takes to win.

他描述了比赛结束后，自己精疲力尽地坐在更衣室里，因为一直保持高度自律和专注，他整整没吃任何糖，这就是成功所需的代价。

And he's describing how in the aftermath of the game, he sat in the dressing room exhausted and he's not had any sugar because he's been so disciplined and so focused because this is what it takes.

在那之前，他整整三年都没碰过糖。

He's not had any sugar in, I think it's three years leading up to this.

所以他允许自己在舌头上放一小块巧克力，任由它慢慢融化。

So he allows himself like a tab of chocolate on his tongue and he lets it melt.

他说，那一刻我就停下了，立刻又开始为下一场比赛做准备。

And he says, I stopped then immediately and I was back preparing for the next tournament.

我喜欢这个故事的地方是——

And what I love about this story-

他甚至都没嚼它。

He didn't even chew it.

他根本没嚼，只是让它慢慢融化，只是让它融化，因为这恰恰说明了什么是真正的自律。

He didn't even chew it, just let it melt, just let it melt, because this just shows you like what it takes, like the discipline.

与此同时，三年后的澳网，费德勒夺冠了，他每晚都吃冰淇淋。

Meanwhile, Australian Open, three years later, Roger Federer wins and he eats ice cream every single night.

就像这样，有德约科维奇，有费德勒。

And it's like, oh, like there's Djokovic, there's Federer.

他们俩都没有错，只是各自做了适合自己的事。

And it's not that either of them were wrong, they kind of just did what worked for them.

所以我特别喜欢收集完全相反的建议。

And that's why I kind of like collecting completely opposite piece of advice.

比如，斯蒂芬·金写他的整部小说或所有作品时，都是直接开写，不打草稿。

So for example, Stephen King wrote his entire novel or all his work just raw dogging it.

他就是端杯咖啡，盯着空白屏幕，硬是把东西写出来。

He would just turn up cup of coffee, stare at a blank screen, make it happen.

J.K. 罗琳写《哈利·波特》全系列时都用了一个电子表格。

JK Rowling used a spreadsheet for the whole of Harry Potter.

就像这样——有个手写的表格，我见过。

It's just like- There's a handwritten spreadsheet, I've seen that.

是的，有个手写的表格。

Yeah, there's a handwritten spreadsheet.

所以，不同的方法是存在的。

So there's like just different approaches.

当你达到任何领域的巅峰时，你会发现每个人都有自己独特的方式，对吧？

And when you get to the top of any craft, you'll notice that you'll have it's same way of investing, right?

沃伦·巴菲特几乎只专注于少数几只股票。

Warren Buffett does almost only Only stresses.

他会理解，阅读一切内容。

He'll understand, reads everything.

那个完全依靠算法操作的人是谁？

And who's the guy who does it all via algorithms?

比如吉姆·西蒙斯，还有文艺复兴科技公司的一切。

Like Jim Simons, like Everything Renaissance

通过算法，他们都多次成为亿万富翁。

via algorithms, both billionaires multiple times over.

这真的很有趣，因为现在我必须找到属于自己的方式。

It's really interesting going, oh, now I have to pick my own way.

这太个性化了，对吧？

Well, it's so idiosyncratic, right?

你不知道什么方法对你有效

You don't know what it is that's going to work for

唯一共同点往往是，他们其实没有任何共同点，因为他们都只是做了适合自己的方式。

The only is the the the way the one thing that they all have in common often is that they have nothing in common is that they've kind of done what worked for them.

这实际上是他们唯一共享的东西。

That's the one thing that they actually share.

我认为根本原则是坚持，你必须找到一种你能坚持下去的方法。

I think the underlying principle is compliance, that you have to find something that you can comply to.

这就是为什么它如此个性化。

And that is why it's so idiosyncratic.

它必须是不同的，因为如果你无法坚持，你就看不到结果。

Like it has to be different because if you couldn't comply to it, you're not gonna see the results.

一致性非常重要。

Like consistency is super important.

如果德约科维奇尝试纳达尔的方法，或者纳达尔尝试费德勒的方法，那从设计上来说是不会有效的。

So if Djokovic had tried Nadal's approach or Nadal had tried Federer's approach, that wouldn't have worked by design.

是的。

Yeah.

但不是德约科维奇说过，我只是喜欢击球吗？

But wasn't it Djokovic that said, I just like hitting the ball?

是的。

Yeah.

这似乎与那种机械式的方法相悖，看起来并不有趣。

That seems like kind of counter to the robotic approach that doesn't seem that fun.

好吧，我的朋友比利有个关于这个的精彩故事。

Well, friend Billy has an amazing story about this.

当他即将放弃时，他当时排名世界第五，和教练谈了一次，然后陷入了低谷。

The just like hitting the ball one was when he was about to quit, he was like fifth in the world, spoke to his coach and gets into that hole.

我只是喜欢赢球。

I just like winning the ball.

然后他状态爆发，成为了世界第一。

And then he goes on this terror and becomes number one.

但他在饮食上的真正自律是针对他个人的。

But the actual like discipline when it came to his diet was specific to him.

而费德勒每天晚上都吃冰淇淋。

Whereas Federer ice cream every night.

嗯，我有一个。

Well, I I had one

来展示一下自我帮助建议这件事。

to show on the advice self help advice thing.

你看到蒂姆·费里斯今天或昨天发的博客了吗？

Did you see the Tim Ferriss blog he posted, I think, today or yesterday?

无限的衔尾蛇。

The Ouroboros of Infinity.

是的。

Yeah.

没错。

Exactly.

所以蒂姆·费里斯，他帮助过很多人，也是自助领域的重要传播者和接收者，写了一篇帖子，本质上是在说：对自助类内容要小心。

So Tim Ferriss, who's, like, helped a lot of people and been a big distributor and receiver of self help, basically writes this post kind of essentially saying, gotta be careful with self help.

但他写得非常个人化。

And but but in a pretty personal way.

我觉得这是一篇很棒的文章，讲的是：如果你陷入这个循环，那种想要自助的人，他们想要快乐。

I thought it was kind of an amazing post about, like, if you go through this loop, the the type of person who wants self help, they wanna be happy.

所以他们会试图解决问题来让自己快乐。

And so they try to fix a problem to make themselves happy.

但为了解决问题，他们不断寻找、尝试。

But in order to fix the problem, they're constantly searching and trying to

去实现那些目标。

fix those goals.

这太疯狂了。

It's got nuts.

是的

Yeah.

我们没人疯了。

No one of us has nuts.

所以这篇文章太棒了。

And so this post is amazing.

自我提升的行为，本质上可能引发一种无限循环：不断寻找问题来解决以求进步。

It's basically just like the the act of of self improvement, can lead to that that sort of infinite cycle of searching for problems to solve, to improve.

嗯哼。

Uh-huh.

然后你就会像上瘾一样依赖这种‘药’。

And then you just sort of get addicted to the medicine in that way.

你怎么解决这个无限的问题？

How do you solve the infinite problem?

嗯，他其实在这篇文章里说了。

Well, he he actually says it in this.

基本上，他说你需要两者兼备。

Basically, he's like, there's this like, you need you need both.

如果你只是彻底接受你的现状，那你将毫无进展，最终也不会对自己的人生缺乏进步感到满意。

If you just have radical acceptance of your situation, you go nowhere, and you will ultimately not be happy with your own, like, lack of progress in life.

但如果你只追求进步，却从不接受生活中的弱点、缺陷和不完美，无法与它们共处，嗯。

But if you only chase progress and never take acceptance to either weaknesses, flaws, imperfections in your life and just be able to sit with them Yep.

那么你将不断奔波，试图通过进步来让自己快乐，却永远无法真正快乐。

Then you'll constantly be moving and trying to make progress to make yourself happy, but you won't be happy ever.

所以。

And so

这话说得太对了，贾里德。

That's such a scroll up, Jared.

这句话简直太棒了。

That's such a fucking good line.

我年纪越大，就越觉得自我提升可能是个陷阱。

The older I get, the more I think that self help can be a trap.

有时候，治疗比疾病本身更糟糕。

Sometimes the cure is worse than the disease.

我说这话是基于二十年来撰写自助书籍以及一生中大量阅读自助内容的经验。

I say this after around twenty years of writing self help and a lifetime of consuming it.

老兄，你知道白人播客主通常会做哪两种转型吗？

Bro, this is the fucking do you know there's two types of pivots that white podcasters make?

祝你健康。

Bless you.

一种是‘神之转型’，另一种则是彻底放弃一切。

One is the god pivot, and the other one the the other one is the renunciation of all of

是的。

Yeah.

我一生的事业。

My life's work

结果发现，我之前过度优化了。

It's the turns out I was over optimizing.

另一个是，我发现我只需要把一切都交给奶酪。

The other one is turns out that I just needed to give it all the cheeses.

这两种选择，任你挑选。

Those are the only two pick your direction.

选一个方向吧，伙计。

Pick your direction, podcast, man.

就这样。

That's it.

我选了第二个。

I chose the second one.

嘿。

Hey.

我去参加了那个年轻人的活动。

I went to youth thing

我听说了。

I heard.

前几天晚上。

The other night.

基根告诉我的。

Keegan told me.

是的。

Yep.

我当时在场。

I was there.

我当时在夸赞呢，老兄。

I was praising, man.

不。

No.

那真的很不错。

It was it was it was nice.

不错。

Nice.

真疯狂，这是什么？

It's crazy that What is this?

这个

The

他去了奥斯汀岭教会周二晚上的青年聚会。

He went to a Tuesday night young adult service at a church at Austin Ridge Church.

年轻人，而且没有偷偷溜进去。

Young adults and didn't sneak in.

年龄上限到40岁。

Permitted up until age 40.

所以是的。

So Yeah.

你说你说了我去过

You said you said I went to

小孩的活动。

the kids thing.

我当时觉得，挺有意思的。

I was like, interesting.

我的意思是，这有错吗？

Well, mean, it is it wrong?

是的。

Yeah.

我觉得我们这一代人都在那儿。

I I think everyone's our age.

对。

Yeah.

我的意思是，我没查身份证，但也合理。

I mean, I didn't ask for ID, but Fair.

你多大了？

How old

你再说一遍你多大？

are you again?

23岁？

23?

正确。

Correct.

我35岁。

I'm 35.

顺便说一下，你说得对。

You were right about what you said by the way.

我非常喜欢你刚才提到的关于在自我发展中选择适合自己的方式的这种思路。

I loved the I love that line of thought you just brought up about the choosing which works for you in self development.

我最喜欢的一句名言来自斯坦·埃弗丁博士。

One of my favorite quotes is from Doctor.

合规是一门科学。

Stan Efferding, compliance is the science.

这就像有些人通过迈克·门策尔的低容量训练法在健身房练出肌肉，而另一些人则每周去六次健身房，做20组训练。

It's the same way that people get jacked in the gym doing Mike Mentzer's low volume approach versus someone going to the gym six days a week and doing 20 sets.

如果他们就是不停下来，他们就会变得很强壮。

If they just don't stop, they're going to get jacked.

是的。

Yeah.

通往成功的唯一道路，就是你绝不放弃的那一条。

The only path to success is the one you just don't leave.

找到你喜欢的那一条。

Find the one that you enjoy.

找到你喜欢的那一条。

Find the one that you enjoy.

这很有趣。

So this is interesting.

这是另一个，我永远都不会放弃X。

This is another, I'll never get off x.

如果我这么做呢？

What if I did this?

这简直就是必备的

This is this is exactly like, must have

我爸爸发现Facebook短视频时大概就是这种感觉。

been how my dad felt when he discovered Facebook reels.

然后我就想，爸爸怎么还在浴室里待了四十五分钟？

And then I was like, why is dad still in the bathroom forty five minutes later?

我想他可能在看什么无聊的梗图。

He's I think it's some bullshit meme.

太好笑了。

It's so funny.

AI被禁止回答法律和医疗问题。

AI banned from answering legal and healthcare questions.

这非常有趣。

This is very interesting.

我不知道这在X上有多真实或可信，但这是突发新闻。

I don't I don't know what truth or validity there is to this because this is on X, but breaking.

纽约的一项法案拟禁止人工智能回答与医学、法律、牙科、护理、心理学、社会工作、工程等相关的问题。

New York bill would ban AI from answering questions related to medicine, law, dentistry, nursing, psychology, social work, engineering, and more.

因此，现在有一种说法是：我真希望有人能记录下这句话，大意是，我们如今能免费获得过去专家每小时收费400美元的服务，但突然间，这种服务却被限制和管控了。

And so there's this narrative of I wish I had the I had someone who captured the quote and basically said something where now we've gotten to the point where you can get for free what the experts were charging $400 an hour for, and suddenly it's restricted and controlled upon.

嗯。

Mhmm.

我不知道这项法规和法案的范围和深度会延伸到哪里，但一个有趣的想法是，现在唾手可得的信息要么完全免费，至多是多少？

I don't know where the breadth and depth of this regulation and this bill will go, but it's an interesting thought that now readily available information is completely free or at most what?

每月10美元用于Claude或ChatGPT？

$10 a month for Claude or ChatGPT?

ChatGPT。

ChatGPT.

但现在突然冒出一项法案，说：等等。

And now suddenly there's this bill that was like, hold on.

有人评论说，WebMD过去25年来一直给人们提供糟糕的建议，却从未被禁止过。

And it's somewhat someone commented like, WebMD WebMD's been giving people dog shit advice for twenty five years now, and they didn't ever get banned.

为什么这突然成了一个问题？

Why is this suddenly an issue?

你觉得是因为它被拟人化了吗？

Do you think it's because it's kind of personified?

感觉像是一个人在给你提供信息？

It feels like a person's giving it to you?

我的意思是，你以前肯定遇到过，AI给出错误答案，然后你就开始冲它大喊大叫。

I mean, you'll have done this before that your AI gets it wrong, and then you start like shouting at it.

你试图去训斥它。

You try and discipline it.

你怎么会这么做呢？

How could you have done that?

你心里想，好吧，我就是需要你，但你从来不会对谷歌这样。

You're like, okay, I just need to you never did that with Google.

对吧。

Right.

你从没对谷歌说过：你怎么能这么做呢？

You never said to Google, how could you have done this?

我觉得这是因为你觉得你是在跟另一个人类交谈。

I think it's because it feels like you're talking to another human.

我现在总是建议首先使用三重身份验证。

The the first thing now I always recommend is kind of three factor authentication.

所以我从不只跟一个大语言模型对话，我会跟三个都对话。

So I'll never just speak to one LLM, I'll speak to three of them.

我发现如果我通过三个模型来验证，它们出错的概率会明显降低。

And I notice if I go via three, the odds of them making a mistake seems to go significantly lower.

回到纽约那件事，感觉就是：你能怎么办？

Going back to that New York thing, it feels like, what are you gonna do?

你根本无法——

Like you can't-

你打算怎么控制这一点？

How are you gonna control that?

纽约总是对这种监管充满热情，但这些规定从未真正实施、通过或生效。

New York are always like crazy for regulation like this that never happens, never passes, or never actually actualizes.

即使他们立即采取行动，人们也会使用VPN。

Even if they do immediately, people are gonna VPN.

我们生活在一个VPN的世界里，这些监管除了制造新闻头条外，根本不会产生任何实际影响。

Like we live in the world of the VPN, Like, these regulations just are gonna have absolutely no impact apart from headlines.

有十亿用户在使用ChatGPT。

There's a billion users using ChatGPT.

试图说‘不’，就像用拳头对抗风一样毫无意义。

What are gonna it's like fist fighting the wind to be like, no.

我们只能说‘不’。

We're gonna we say no.

就像用花园水管去扑灭森林大火。

Garden hose to a forest fire.

是的。

Yeah.

你打算怎么办？

What are you gonna do?

当AI刚兴起时，大家都在谈论幻觉问题，但现在确实好太多了。

When when AI first kicked off, there was all the talk about hallucinations and it's definitely gotten a lot better.

最初的建议从来不是：在向大语言模型提问之前，先咨询你的医生或律师。

And like the original line was never like speak to an LLM without first speaking to your doctor or your lawyer.

现在我的建议是：没错，但更重要的是，永远不要反着来。

And now my line is like, that's true, but also never Reverse.

永远不要向你的医生

Never speak to your doctor

或律师咨询，而不先请教大语言模型。

or your lawyer without first consulting an LM.

对。

Right.

而且数量

And the amount

我认识的很多人，他们的健康问题已经和医生打交道十多年甚至二十年了，而ChatGPT却能在一次对话中就解决这些问题，这太惊人了。

of people I know personally that have fixed health conditions, that they've been working with doctor for ten to twenty years, that ChatGPT is just one shot it in one is is incredible.

你瞧，说到Polymarket，今年Polymarket关闭了关于是否爆发核战争的投注市场，因为围绕伊朗局势的交易量实在太大了。

You see that, speaking of Polymarket, Polymarket took down the Willa nuclear war breakout this year betting market because there was way too much trading volume happening around what's going on in Iran.

哦，天哪。

Oh, wow.

Polymarket是什么？

What is Polymarket?

你在X上认识我。

You know me on X.

他刚发现X。

He just discovered X.

我刚发现X，乔治。

I just discovered X, George.

十四年了。

Fourteen years.

他快68岁了。

He's gonna be like 68.

我不知道，我不了解Polymarket是什么。

I don't know I don't know what Polymarket is.

你想解释一下吗，Shaan？

You wanna describe it, Shaan?

我甚至不知道该怎么形容它。

I I don't even know how to fucking say what it is.

是的。

Yeah.

这基本上是个无所不赌的赌场，你可以押注任何危险事件。

It's basically a casino for everything, so you can go bet on any dangerous.

他们称之为预测市场。

They call it a prediction market.

这有点像芥末和蛋黄酱那种情况。

It's kind of like the Aoli versus mayonnaise like situation.

所以就像是，体育博彩，不合法。

So it's like, oh, sports betting, not legal.

但在Polymarket上赌体育赛事，却 somehow 合法。

Polymarket betting on a sport event, legal somehow.

所以基本上，你可以下注谁会成为总统。

And so, basically, you can go so you can bet on who's gonna become president.

你可以赌谁会赢这个周末的比赛，但你也可以赌任何事情。

You can bet on who's going to, win this this game this weekend, but you can also bet on anything.

比如，谁会赢，或者，你知道的，会罢工吗？

Like, who's gonna win, or or, like, you know, will there be a strike?

这个人在一个月后会成为总统吗？

Will this guy be the president in a month?

所以你可以对任何结果下注。

And so you can bet on basically any outcome.

早期对预测市场的批评是，它们会变成暗杀市场，因为你创造了巨大的动机去问：这个人还会存在吗？

And the the criticism of prediction markets early on was they become assassination markets because you create this huge incentive to just say, will this guy be around?

如果我想要钱，这最终就变成了一种悬赏。

And if I want money, it it it ends up becoming a bounty.

这简直成了《死侍》。

This is becoming a deadpool.

是的。

Yeah.

没错。

Exactly.

所以这一直是批评的声音，但人们也说，它其实有很多好处。

So that's always been the criticism, and it's like, oh, there's plenty of good things about it.

比如，如果你想了解某件事发生的可能性有多大，去纽约时报或者任何传统新闻媒体，你会发现记者的动机是写出吸引眼球的标题，或许还夹带个人观点。

Like, if you wanna know the truth about how likely something to happen, if you go to the New York Times or any, like, any just traditional news outlet, you know, the incentive of the writer is to write a juicy headline and then maybe have they have their opinion.

但Polymarket上的参与者，都是真金白银押注结果的人。

But polymarket is basically only people with skin in the game betting on an outcome.

所以如果你一直猜错，你就会赔钱。

So if you're wrong consistently, you will lose money.

如果你一直猜对，你在Polymarket上的资金就会越来越多。

If you're right consistently, you'll have a bigger bankroll on polymarket.

所以随着时间推移，它变得最接近准确的预测。

So over time, it becomes the closest thing to, like, accurate predictions.

他们2024年的选举猜对了吗？

Did they get the election right in '24?

对。

Yep.

他们猜对了吗？

Did they?

这个有现金奖励吗？

And there's a cash payout for this?

你实际上是在赌博。

Like, you're actually gambling.

这纯粹就是赌博。

It's just gambling.

但这是带着图表的赌博。

But it's gambling with a graph.

这是一个交易所。

It's an exchange.

这非常重要。

Which is very important.

这是赌博，但上面有个图表，让它看起来更像一个市场。

It's gambling, but there's a graph on it, which makes it look a lot more like a market.

是的。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

你的

What's what's your

怎么看？

kind of take on it?

你认为在未来几年里，这件事会如何发展？

Do you think how do you think it's gonna play out over the next few years?

势不可挡。

Unstoppable.

我觉得人们喜欢赌博。

Like, I think it's gonna be people love gambling.

人们喜欢预测事情。

People love predicting things.

人们需要信息。

People need the information.

嗯哼。

Mhmm.

我的意思是，它现在正以惊人的速度增长。

I mean, it's growing like crazy right now.

我不知道你有没有听说过一个有趣的故事。

I don't know if you saw there's actually a funny story.

我想我有记录在纸上，如果你没调出来的话，但有这么一对夫妻 apparently 正在离婚。

I think I have it on my sheet if you don't pull it up, but there was this man and woman apparently getting divorced.

顺便说一句，这可能是假新闻AI生成的。

This might be a fake news AI, by the way.

这个故事简直好得不像真的，但他们确实在离婚。

It's like the story is almost too good to be true, but they're they're getting divorced.

丈夫在仓库做兼职，却突然开上了一辆宝马。

The man worked part time in a warehouse, but suddenly started driving like a BMW.

妻子就问她的律师：‘你能想办法查一下吗？’

And the wife was like, can you she asked her lawyer, like, can you just do you have a way to check?

他怎么可能买得起这辆车？

Like, how could he afford this car?

于是，他做了一次法务审计，并 subpoenaed 了对方的数字钱包。

And, basically, he did, like, a a forensic audit and and subpoenaed, like, kinda subpoenaed his digital wallets.

他们发现，这个男人在过去一年里通过在Polymarket下注赚了300万美元，命中率接近100%。

They basically found that this guy had made $3,000,000 over the last year with a pretty much 100% hit rate on his Polymarket bets.

他意识到后，她现在有权获得300万美元的一半，也就是150万美元。

And what he had realized there and so she was now gonna be entitled to 3,000,000 half of $3,000,000.

但那个男人在法庭上争辩说，这不算资产。

But the guy fighting it in the courtroom was like, well, this is not an asset.

这是一种策略。

It's a strategy.

我正在执行一种让我获胜的策略。

I'm running a strategy that's allowing me to win.

于是法官说，好吧。

So the judge was like, okay.

你的策略是什么？

What's your strategy?

他基本上说，我注意到拉斯维加斯的体育博彩公司会更新赔率，而我下注的市场更新得太慢了。

And he basically was like, well, I just realized that the Las Vegas sports books would update, and the market I was betting on wasn't updating fast enough.

所以我就会直接下注新的赔率。

And so I would just bet the new odds.

即使事情还没发生，它也总是会匹配新的赔率。

Even if the thing didn't happen, it was gonna always match the, like, new odds.

所以他只是在利用这种套利机会。

And so he's like, I was just arbitraging that.

于是他们审计了他的投注记录，结果全是盈利，基本上就是这样。

And so he had like, they audited his bets, and it was just all green, basically.

因此，有很多人发现了这些小小的套利机会。

And so there's a lot of people that have found these little arbitrages.

比如，人们会派人在体育赛事现场，因为可以比广播和数据库更新更快地传递比赛结果。

Like, people are sending people to, let's say, a sporting event because they can relay what happened faster than the broadcast and faster than the, like, the database updates.

在亚洲的足球比赛中就发生过这种情况。

This was happening in Asia with soccer matches.

是的。

Yeah.

我发誓确实发生过，有人过去现场传递信息再传回来。

I swear this was happening there, and someone was going over and sending it back.

是的。

Yeah.

这就像你如果读过《高频交易》这本书，里面讲过一种量化交易策略：如果你把服务器放在纽约证券交易所服务器附近，你就能比那些通过普通渠道下单的人更快地执行交易，哪怕只快一毫秒。

It's like if you ever read Flash Boys, there was, like, a whole, like, quant trading thing where if they put your server close to the New York Stock Exchange server, you could get your trade in before the guy who was doing it through a cent like a normal Right.

服务器。

Server.

他们甚至会穿越山脉铺设光纤，只为在每笔交易中节省几分钱。

And they're, like, putting fiber through mountains to, like, shave off pennies off of every trade essentially.

哇。

Wow.

那么当Poly Market推出时，赌博法律是否普遍适用呢？

So do gambling laws apply then universally to Poly Market when it came out?

它是一个赌博推广平台。

It's a gambling affiliate.

所以我们不能在佐治亚州做这个。

So, like, we can't do it in Georgia.

这基本上是个漏洞。

There's basically a loophole.

所以预测市场不被视为赌博。

So prediction markets are not considered gambling.

它们更像是商品合约。

They're they're like commodities contracts.

这就像是在赌大豆的未来价格。

So it's like it's like betting on the future price of like soybeans.

它们由监管商品市场的同一机构监管，这就是它们能够规避这一限制的原因。

So they're they're they're regulated by the same people who do like the commodities markets, and so that's how they've able to get around this.

所有事情。

Everything.

所有事情。

Everything.

世界事件。

World events.

根本没有，哦，这比世界大事小多了。

There is none oh, it's so much smaller than world events.

比如，超级碗上浇在教练头上的佳得乐会是什么颜色？

Like, what color is the Gatorade going to be that gets dunked over the head of the coach at the Super Bowl?

任何事。

Anything.

我们把这个叫做

And we're calling this

它叫Polymarket，是一个市场。

it's called polymarket, and it's it's Market.

这就像有人问你：你平时做什么工作？

This is like when someone says, what do you do for work?

然后他们说：我是环卫工程师。

And they go, I'm a sanitation engineer.

他其实就是个捡垃圾的。

He's a fucking trash guy.

就和这个一样，就像是

It's just like the same It's like

品牌营销。

branding.

品牌营销。

Branding.

如果你足够认真地看待，生活中的每一件事本质上都成了内幕交易。

Every bit of life essentially becomes insider trading if you take it firm enough.

哇。

Wow.

这是个有趣的问题。

It's an interesting question.

比如，在中场表演时，他们说：‘他会唱这首歌吗？’

Like, during the halftime show, they were like, oh, is he gonna play this song?

猜猜怎么着？

Well, guess what?

有400名伴舞。

There was, 400 backup dancers.

所以他们被抓了，因为突然间这个钱包冒出来，往一个冷门市场投了32美元，然后你猜怎么着？

And so it was very they're getting caught because it's like suddenly this wallet comes out, puts $32 on this one obscure market, and it's like, guess what?

他只是个伴舞。

He was a backup.

你有没有

Did you

看到那个在比赛前几天站在体育场外，测量国歌时长的人吗？

see the guy who stood outside of the stadium in the days preceding it, timing

哦，是的。

Oh, yeah.

国歌会持续多久。

How long the National anthem.

国歌的时长会是多久。

National anthem was going to be.

他当时拿着秒表在外面。

And he was like, out there with a stopwatch.

他自己拍了视频，从侧面记录，因为他们一直在排练、排练、排练，然后他下注了，赢了一大笔钱，因为他完全知道谁会

He videoed it himself with a side because they're rehearsing, rehearsing, rehearsing, and then puts the bed on and wins a fucking shit ton of money because he knew exactly who he

这是合法的，因为他是在外面。

And that was legal because he was outside.

这是公开信息。

It was public information.

他就是那种像射电望远镜一样的监听设备，一直在调频，果然如此

And he's one of those like, radio telescope listening device things, like, tuning in, and sure enough

在讨论这段时，我们给了他的脸一个特写。

We did a close-up of just his face during this discussion.

整个讨论过程中，我们用了画中画的镜头展示他的脸。

The whole discussion, we had you picture in picture cam of his face.

好的。

Okay.

所以每一个

So Each

那些解释。

of those explanations.

就像是，哦，那Polymarket呢？

It's like, oh, well So polymarket?

是的。

Yeah.

你们有没有看到超级碗那个裸奔的人？

Did you guys see the the Super Bowl streaker guy?

他的YouTube频道？

His his YouTube channel?

没有。

No.

他戴上了Meta的雷朋太阳镜。

He put meta Ray Bans on.

对吧？

Right?

他确实这么做了。

He did.

是的。

Yes.

所以这个家伙，这个视频太棒了。

So this guy this video is incredible.

我不怎么看YouTube视频，但这个视频的三十分钟我全都看完了。

I don't watch many YouTube videos, but I watch all thirty minutes of this video.

就像坐在座位专家的位置上，看着那些三维图像，分析哪个座位跳起来最理想，栏杆有多高？

Like, on seat geek looking at the, like, three d images of which seat is optimal to jump like, how high is the rail?

坠落有多深？

How how deep is the fall?

然后他还找了个替身，让他的朋友和他一起做。

And then he has a decoy, he has his friend do it with him.

朋友先跳。

The friend jumps first.

抖得很厉害。

Shaking big.

然后他嗯嗯地摇头。

And then he's like, uh-uh.

元宇宙里，这个东西

The Metas, This get

就像《麦登》一样。

is like Madden.

对吧？

Right?

在元宇宙里，这太

In the Metas, it's so

老兄，如果我看到一辆车停在真正的玩家旁边。

Dude, if I saw a car down by a by the by an actual player.

他确实做了。

He did.

我确实做了。

I did.

他确实做了。

He did.

是的。

Yeah.

他知道罚款是多少，然后他赌自己能成功。

He knew what the fine was, and then he bet on himself.

对。

Yeah.

他真的做到了。

And he did it.

裸奔者的几率

Odds of a streaker

在超级碗上？

at the Super Bowl?

他不想直接确认，但他们相当确定，哇。

He didn't wanna, like, confirm it, but they're, like, pretty sure Wow.

他和他的朋友们。

Him and his friends.

赚了

Made a

从这件事中赚了一大笔。

crazy bag off this.

这难道不疯狂吗？YouTube 简直就是在说，让我看看你的动力。

Isn't that isn't it, like, just insane what YouTube will it's like, show me your incentive.

我让你看看你的结果。

I'll show you your outcome.

YouTube 基本上就是在说：做最疯狂的事。

It's like, YouTube is basically like, do the craziest shit.

是的。

Yeah.

所以人们就会做最疯狂的事情。

So then people do exactly the craziest shit.

你训练的成果简直不可思议。

Fact that you trained for is unreal.

你们看到这个了吗？

Did you guys see this?

你用X吗？但你不用TikTok吗？

Are you are you on x, but you're not on are you on TikTok?

是的。

Yes.

好的。

Okay.

他

He is

TikTok。

TikTok.

我看过一个TikTok视频，觉得特别搞笑。

There is a TikTok that I thought was just super funny.

是汤姆·克鲁斯。

It's Tom Cruise.

有个汤姆·克鲁斯的模仿者，事情是这样的：这个人邀请他来家里。

There's this Tom Cruise impersonator, and what happens is this guy invites him over to his house.

他 basically 雇了这个汤姆·克鲁斯模仿者，但不是为了派对或企业活动。

He he he basically hires the Tom Cruise impersonator, but not for a party or a corporate event.

就是来我客厅坐坐。

Just come over to my living room.

所以我不太明白。

And so I don't know.

你们看过这个吗？

Have you guys seen this?