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你现在已经卖出了多少本《海军年鉴》？
Many copies of the Navalmanac have you sold now?
很难说准，但我认为我们快达到两百万册了。
It's tough to know, but I think we're coming up on 2,000,000.
这种感觉怎么样？
How's that feel?
我仍然觉得，我最喜欢用的词是‘震惊’。
I'm still, the word I like to use is gobsmacked.
我本来以为我只是在为几千个海军迷提供粉丝服务。
Like, I really thought I was doing fan service for a few thousand Naval nerds.
结果现在竟然覆盖了40种语言，数以百万计的人，而且我们还免费赠送了几百万册。
And the fact that that's, like, 40 languages and millions of people, and and we've given away a few million more.
对吧？
Right?
说实话，我都不太确定了。
Like, I don't even really know.
哦，所以卖了这么多吗？
Oh, so that's how many were sold?
因为这本书在网站上是免费提供的。
Because it was available for free through the website.
是的。
Yeah.
这又多了五百万以上。
Which is another like 5,000,000 plus.
真的很难统计。
Really hard to track.
当人们问我应该从哪本书开始个人发展时，我最常推荐的就是这本书。
I think it's my most suggested book when people say, where should I start with personal development?
格雷格·麦基翁的《精要主义》或者《Navalmanac》。
Essentialism by Greg McKeown or The Nebalanak.
这太惊人了。
That's incredible.
而且说实话，我根本没想到会有这么多人产生共鸣并推荐它。
And and that's I mean, I had no idea how many people were gonna resonate with it and recommend it.
我认为，一本书所能获得的最高赞誉，就是被当作礼物送人。
And, you know, I think the highest compliment a gift, the highest compliment a book can receive is to be gifted.
嗯。
Mhmm.
我们读的很多内容都来自别人的推荐。
And so much of what we read comes from what's recommended.
你见过书的广告然后直接去买吗？
Like, how often you see an ad for a book and buy it?
几乎从不。
Like, almost never.
是的。
Yeah.
标准太高了。
The bars are too high.
是的。
Yeah.
这本新书的副标题是关于埃隆的使命与成功指南。
And the subtitle of this new one is a guide to purpose and success about Elon.
为什么选这个？
Why pick that?
为什么特别选‘使命’？
Why purpose specifically?
这是自然而然形成的。
It was it's emergent.
我的意思是，写这些书的时候，我会从数百万字的原始材料开始，包括他们所有公开分享的内容。
I mean, when I write these books, I start with millions and millions of words of source material, everything they've ever shared publicly.
然后我试图找出这个人的本质是什么？
And I try to figure out like what is the essence of the person?
他们身上最独特、任何人都能从中学习到的是什么？
What is the thing that is most special about them that anybody can learn from?
我们都清楚，埃隆的效率非常高。
And we all know that Elon is like massively productive.
我觉得每个人都在问，他到底是怎么做到的？
I feel like the question everybody's asking is kind of like how the hell did this happen?
他是怎么完成这么多事情的？
Like, how does he get so much done?
但直到整个过程进行到很深入的时候，我才意识到，目标感是另一个支柱。
But what I didn't realize until way into the process was that purpose was the other pillar.
我知道我想了解他是如何成功的，但直到那时我才知道，目标感在他成功中所占的分量有多大。
So I knew I wanted to know like how does he win, but I didn't know to the extent that purpose was a big part of why he wins.
事实上，他对‘我该做什么？’这个问题有着非常出色的回答。
And that is actually he has some really incredible answers for what do I do?
什么是重要的？
What's important?
我该如何选择什么是重要的？
How do I choose what's important?
嗯。
Mhmm.
是的。
Yeah.
我认为每个人都看着，只以为是策略、纯粹的策略。
I think everyone looks and just assumes tactics, raw tactics.
是的。
Yeah.
但如果背后有更大的驱动力，蒂尔谈到马斯克时说，他似乎明白一些我们其他人不了解的关于风险的事情。
But if there's something bigger driving that, Teal says about Elon, he seems to know something that the about risk that the rest of us do not.
你觉得那是什么？
What do you think that thing is?
是的。
Yeah.
我的意思是，我认为马斯克是敢于冒险的。
I mean, I think Elon is risk on.
他承担了一些本不该承担的风险。
Like, he takes risks that he shouldn't take.
他天生就偏向于冒险。
He's inherently biased towards risk.
但这种冒险成功次数之多，我认为恰恰印证了Teal的观点。
But the number of times that that pays off, I think reveals and puts in Teal's context.
Teal是个风险管理者，而Elon是个冒险者。
Like, Teal is a risk manager, and Elon is a risk taker.
当你把这种特质与目标结合起来时，就会发现Elon正在执行某些使命，他努力实现某些目标，几乎不在乎需要冒多大的风险。
And when you combine that with purpose, the fact that like Elon is on these missions, he's trying to accomplish something and he almost doesn't care how much risk it takes.
他会不断尝试，不断尝试，直到突破为止。
He'll just keep taking chances and keep taking chances until he breaks through.
他有一句精彩的名言：失败无关紧要，除非它 catastrophic。
And he's got this amazing quote, failure is irrelevant unless it's catastrophic.
我认为这很好地诠释了他对风险的态度：我不在乎自己的成功率有多低。
And I think that's a really good way to sort of explain that attitude towards the risk of like, I just don't care how low my chances are.
我不在乎胜算有多小。
I don't care how long the odds are.
我会一直坚持下去，直到死去，因为这件事足够重要，值得我继续投入。
I'm just gonna keep going until I die because this is important enough to keep working on.
这就解释了为什么目标感如此关键，因为正是它让你能够持续前进。
And that explains why the purpose piece is crucial because that's what would keep you pushing through.
是的。
Yes.
他做过太多看似从财务动机来看疯狂的事情，比如试图建立一家企业，而这是因为他是被这些宏大的目标所驱动，并且拥有极高的风险承受能力。
There's so many times that he has done things that seem insane from like a financial motivation point of view, or I'm trying to build a business or and it's because he's driven by these massive purposes and he has this risk tolerance.
而这些因素的结合，我认为正是推动他的力量。
And the combination of those things, think, is what, you know, pushes him.
比如，特斯拉和SpaceX这两个最大的机会，在当初根本没人注意到。
Like, these two opportunities, Tesla and SpaceX being the biggest were were on nobody's radar.
他在着手这些项目时显得荒谬可笑，却投入了数亿美元来实现它们，因为他心怀使命，即使胜算渺茫、风险极高。
He looked absurd when he undertook them, and he put hundreds of millions of dollars on the line to achieve these things because he was purpose driven even though the odds were long and the risk was high.
他是如此独特的一个个体吗？
Is he that singular of an individual?
显然，SpaceX很了不起，Tesla也很厉害，Doge还挺酷，上台演讲、参与特朗普竞选、收购Twitter、X平台，激情澎湃。
Obviously, SpaceX impressive, Tesla impressive, Doge kinda cool, being on stage, Trump campaign, Twitter, x, rah rah.
你知道，他到底有多了不起？或者他作为一个人有多独特？
You know, how just how impressive is he or how singular is he as an individual?
我觉得他确实非常独特。
I think he's pretty singular.
你不这么认为吗？
Like, do you not?
是的。
Yeah.
我同意。
I do.
是的。
Yeah.
但很多批评者认为，他的成功更多源于杠杆作用和荒谬的风险承受能力，以及突破他人不敢逾越的界限。
But a lot of people that are detractors have found a way to say, actually, it's more to do with leverage and ridiculous risk tolerance and just sort of blowing through the boundaries that other people wouldn't.
这与缺乏道德约束、能够无视他人认为可疑的伦理准则有关。
It's to do with, lack of, scruples and being able to push through ethics that other people might find squirrelly.
你认为他的主要竞争优势来自哪里？
Where do you see the big competitive advantages for him coming from?
我认为他是当今最伟大的企业家，毫无疑问，也可能是有史以来最伟大的。
I I think he's the greatest living entrepreneur, hard stop, and maybe the greatest of all time.
他同时创办了特斯拉和SpaceX，这两项成就各自都足以让他跻身前十，甚至进入总统山名录。
The fact that he did Tesla and SpaceX, which are both would both be singular accomplishments and put him on like top 10, if not Mount Rushmore.
他同时完成这两项事业，简直难以置信。
The fact that he did them both at the same time is unbelievable.
在PayPal和Zip2之后，作为一个年轻小伙子，他还在业余时间创办了X AI、隧道公司、Neuralink，甚至包括Doge，你甚至想把Doge也算作一个项目。
As after PayPal and after Zip2 as a young young guy, like and then just like sort of on the side, x AI, boring company, Neuralink, like Doge, you wanna include that as like a project.
绝对独一无二。
Absolutely singular.
我的意思是，他还有很多潜力可挖。
I mean and and lots of game left.
对吧？
Right?
他才55岁而已？
Like, he's only 55?
还没到吗？
Not quite?
他可能还有二十年可干。
Like, he might have twenty more years.
再过二十年，他会走到哪一步？
Like, where does this go in twenty more years?
简直难以置信。
It's unbelievable.
我的意思是，我认为他具备的这些特质组合——当然，我知道我会因为这本书、这期节目以及所有这些内容被指责，说我在美化他，忽视了你提到的那些缺点。
I mean, the combination of traits that I think he has and this is not to like, I know that I will be accused, like, through this book and this episode and everything of, like, lionizing and overlooking the bad traits that that you listed.
而且还有很多。
And there are plenty.
每个优势都有其阴暗面。
Like, there's dark sides to every advantage.
但他拥有像大卫·戈金斯那样的强度。
But he's got, like, the intensity of David Goggins.
即使不是那种体格的话，也有那种原始的劲头。
Like just raw If not the physique.
是的。
Yeah.
体格并不完全一样。
Not not quite the physique.
或者肤色。
Or the skin tone.
埃隆·马斯克和大卫·戈金斯之间有很多不同之处。
There are many differences between Elon Musk and David Goggins.
是的
Yep.
但他拥有大卫·戈金斯的专注力，以及理查德·费曼那种非传统却天生的物理直觉。
But he's got the intensity of David Goggins, the sort of unconventional but natural physical brilliance of Richard Feynman.
然后，我喜欢拿破仑的战略智慧、行动倾向，以及那种必胜的意志。
And then the like I like Napoleon for strategic brilliance and bias to action and just like will to win.
当你把这些特质结合起来，那就是独一无二的。
And when you combine those things, absolutely singular.
这就像是扎克伯格同时创办了谷歌。
It would be like if Zuckerberg had also started Google.
我觉得这差不多就是那种量级的事——他们同时创办了谷歌和Facebook。
Like, I feel like that's kind of the order of magnitude thing and they started Google and Facebook in parallel.
我的意思是，SpaceX，我认为当它上市时，这一点会更明显：他几乎算是创立了，但至少是资助、领导并推动了世界上前十大公司中的两家，甚至可能是世界上最重要的两家公司，而且是在同一时间并行推进，同时还做着其他一大堆事，养了14个孩子。
I mean, SpaceX, I think when it goes public, this will be more obvious to people, but he'll he will have almost founded, but certainly funded, led, and driven two of the top 10 companies in the world, if not two of the most important companies in the world in parallel at the same time, while doing a bunch of other shit and having 14 kids.
怎么可能？
How?
这还可以。
What is okay.
这确实很独特。
That is pretty singular.
在看了数百万字关于他生平、言行之后，他的成功由哪些核心要素构成？
After a few million words of looking through his life, what it is that he's said and done, what is the what are the component parts of his success?
他如此高效的主要驱动力是什么？
What are the biggest drivers for how he's been so productive?
我觉得有几个方面。
I think there's a few.
我认为人们忽视了这些因素的结合。
And I think the thing that people miss is the combination of those factors.
所以人们经常谈论，而且确实没错，那就是对瓶颈因素的强烈紧迫感。
So I think people talk a lot about, and it's correct to talk about the bias towards or the the intense urgency towards the limiting factor.
对吧？
Right?
他总是在寻找瓶颈并攻击瓶颈。
He's always looking for the bottleneck and attacking the bottleneck.
他以疯狂的紧迫感工作。
He works with maniacal urgency.
这些是他用来形容自己并灌输给周围人的词语。
Those are the words he uses and instills in people all around him.
他还有一种从第一性原理思考的能力，这已经成为他经常提及的一个关键词，而且他有很多精彩的例子。
There is also this ability to sort of think from first principles has become this like keyword that he talks about and that he has a bunch of great examples for.
但当你把这些因素结合起来时，这并不是10%或50%的提升。
But when you combine all of those things, it's not a 10% or a 50% improvement.
而是一种两个数量级的提升。
It is like a two order of magnitude improvement.
如果你总是在正确的时间，以正确的愿景，做正确的事情，你不会只是两倍高效。
If you are working on the right thing with the right vision at the right time immediately all the time, you're not twice as productive.
你会变得高效一千倍。
You're a thousand times more productive.
然后你这样持续三十年、四十年。
And then you do that for thirty years, forty years.
这种先行优势是如何积累、复利增长的，杠杆效应是如何自我强化的，盟友是如何出现的，资本是如何源源不断涌向你的，以及一次胜利如何带来更多的胜利。
And the the way that sort of head start accrues and compounds and the way the leverage builds on itself and the way the allies show up and the way that capital piles in behind you and the way that wins turn into additional wins.
现在他身上有一种神秘感，人们恰当地批评这种神秘感。
And then you he has this sort of mystique now that people rightly criticize as a mystique.
这感觉不真实，仿佛没人敢批评他，但他从未输过。
Like, it feels unreal, and it feels like people don't critique it, but he hasn't lost.
就像
Like
而这会自我延续。
and that becomes self perpetuating.
那是他为自己设立了特斯拉的奖金结构的时候。
That was when he put the, Tesla bonus structure in place for himself.
是的
Yeah.
一千亿美元的薪酬方案。
The trillion dollar compensation package.
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
有很多批评的声音流传开来。
That there's a lot of criticism that was thrown around.
这太荒谬了。
Like, this is ridiculous.
简直是一笔疯狂的巨款。
What an insane amount of money.
不应该有一个人能拿到这么多。
No one person is supposed to do that.
但他反驳说，看看我为了实现这些目标需要做些什么。
But his pushback was, well, look at what I need to do in order to be able to achieve that.
你能解释一下，为什么这如此荒谬，它到底包含了什么吗？
Can you just explain, like, why that was so ridiculous and what it constituted?
是的。
Yeah.
我的意思是，这实际上是他第二次这么做了。
I mean, this is the second time he's done it actually.
所以他采取了一种极端的孤注一掷的方式。
So he had an insane all or nothing.
比如，除非我让特斯拉股价涨十倍，否则我一分钱都拿不到。
Like, I will make $0 unless I 10 x Tesla.
我不记得确切的数字了，但他确实设定了几年内把特斯拉变成前所未有的巨大成功的目标。
I don't remember the exact number, but he had he had some number of years to, like, turn Tesla into a massive unprecedented success.
大家都觉得这太荒谬了，但股东们却都表示：好吧，我们投赞成票。
Everybody said it was absurd, but the shareholders were all kinda like, alright, we'll vote for it.
我们还能失去什么呢？
What do we have to lose?
也就是说，如果他做不到，我们就不会付他钱。
Like, if he doesn't do it, we don't pay him.
对。
Yep.
而他确实达到了这个不可能的目标。
And he achieved this impossible bar.
然后发生了整个特拉华州法院的事情，有人起诉他，试图收回那笔钱，这整个事情一团糟，我也没资格详细讲述其中的来龙去脉。
And then these and then the the whole Delaware court thing happened where people were like suing him because trying to like retract that money and it's a whole that's a whole mess that like I'm not qualified to tell the story of in great detail.
但这件事成功了，他做到了不可能的事，而且一次又一次地完成不可能的任务。
But it worked and he did the impossible and he has been doing the impossible over and over again.
所以当他来说，我觉得我能把特斯拉从一家市值一千亿美元的公司提升到一万亿美元，而且你不用付我任何报酬，除非我做到。
So when he comes and says, I think I can take Tesla from a $1,000,000,000,000 company to a $10,000,000,000,000 company, and you don't have to pay me anything unless I do.
但如果我做到了，也许给我一万亿美金吧。
But if I do, maybe throw me a trillion dollars.
这到底伤害了谁呢？
Like, who is that hurting?
这其实是在帮助所有持有股票的股东。
Like, it's helping all the shareholders who own it.
他们同意了这个方案。
They agreed to it.
这本来就是不可能完成的任务。
It's supposed to be impossible.
对吧？
Right?
这完全是只赚不赔，但他以前也多次完成过看似不可能的飞跃。
Like, it's all upside, but he's made all these impossible leaps before.
他并不总是对的，但他的说法是：我可能输掉过很多战役，但从没输过一场战争。
Not always right, but like the way he says he's like, I've lost many battles, but I've never lost a war.
他从未让一家公司倒闭。
He's never lost a company.
他从未错过过一个巨大的目标。
He's never missed a huge target.
他总是错过截止日期，但几乎是故意的。
He misses deadlines all the time, but almost by design.
因为他推进得太快了。
Because he's pushing the limit so quickly.
是的。
Yeah.
当然，他是在我写完这本书之后才这么清晰地表达出来的，因为他总是在不断推出新东西。
He just articulated this really well, of course, after I finished writing the book because he's always dropping new stuff.
但他表示，他会选择那些他认为有50%把握能完成的截止日期。
But he says he chooses deadlines that he thinks has a he has a 50% chance of making.
他说，我不想让自己的截止日期100%都能完成。
And he's like, I don't want to be making a 100% of my deadlines.
那意味着目标定得太保守了。
That means they're way too conservative.
这意味着事情会被推迟，有些事情会被错过。
That means things will get moved, things will get missed.
所以我设定的截止日期，是我认为我们有五成把握能完成的，有时候我们会错。
So I set a deadline that I think we have a fifty fifty chance of making, and sometimes we'll be wrong.
有时候我们会错过，但很多时候我们会完成那些原本认为不可能完成的截止日期，因为我们对时间表采取了非常激进的态度。
Sometimes we'll miss it, but a lot of the time we will make a deadline that we didn't think was possible because we chose to be really, really aggressive with schedules.
你总结了69条马斯克的方法。
You had 69 core Musk methods.
那我们来逐一看看
So let's go through some
其中一些。
of them.
这还挺有意思的，结果竟然是这样。
Funny how that works out.
如果我们不做出来，那就什么都没有。
If we don't make stuff, there is no stuff.
他在乔·罗根播客上说过这句话。
He said this on the Joe Rogan podcast.
这是少数几件让我深受震撼的事情之一。
It was one of a few things that hit me so hard.
我当时就想，这本书真的必须出版。
I was like, this book has to happen actually.
那是一个每个人都说‘印钱吧，发出去吧，帮帮我们，帮帮我们’的时代。
And it was in this era where everybody just go like, just print money, just send it out, just like help us, help us.
人们指望政府这个‘大兄弟’无论如何都要照顾我们，尽管在新冠期间根本没人干活。
Like looking to sort of the government as big brother to just take care of us no matter what, even though nobody was doing any work during COVID.
他说，事情不是这样的。
And he's like, that's not how this works.
如果我们不制造东西，不建设东西，不提供服务，整个经济就会崩溃。
Like, if we are not making stuff, if we're not building stuff, if we're not providing services, like the whole economy collapses.
正是这些东西支撑着货币。
Like, that is what holds up the money.
我认为，他是那种倾向于创造、服务和改进事物的绝佳典范。
And he's a great example, I think, of the bias to build and serve and improve things.
你知道吗，特斯拉是唯一一家试图降低汽车价格的汽车公司。
You know, the exam like, Tesla is the only car company trying to drive prices down.
在过去四十年里，你见过其他汽车公司降价吗？
Have you seen another car company lower their prices in the last forty years?
特斯拉的价格确实降了。
Tesla's prices have gone down.
是的。
Yeah.
他们正在主动降低各款车型的价格。
They're actively lowering the price on the models.
随着产量增加，他们降低价格。
As they add volume, they lower the price.
随着简化汽车设计，他们也降低价格。
And as they simplify the car, they lower the price.
但我查了一下，福特F-150。
But I looked this up, Ford f one fifty.
如果你只是按通货膨胀来算，以前大概是五六千美元。
If you just follow inflation, it used to be like 5 or $6.
如果只按通货膨胀计算，今天应该是一万五千美元左右，但现在的价格却是四万或五万美元，虽然确实多了些功能和安全配置，但贵了三四倍。
And if you just follow inflation, should be like 15,000 today, but they're like 40 or $50 and feel like yes, there's more features and more safety, but like three, four times more.
我觉得全球每家汽车公司都在琢磨怎么多收钱，就像杰夫·贝佐斯说的，公司只有两种类型。
And I feel like every car company on earth is just trying to figure out how to charge And as Jeff Bezos said, like there's two kinds of companies.
一种是拼命想多收钱的公司。
There's companies that try to charge, work hard to charge more.
另一种是努力降低价格的公司。
And there's companies that work hard to charge less.
亚马逊就是那种致力于降低成本的公司。
And Amazon is a like, we're driving costs down business.
特斯拉也是如此。
And Tesla is the same.
他说，如果我们无法降低价格，那是因为我们还没找到如何降低成本的方法。
He says like, if we can't figure out If we charge something, it's because we can't figure out how to charge less.
因为他关注的是使命和宗旨。
Because he's like the mission, the purpose.
我希望尽可能多的人驾驶电动汽车。
I want as many people as possible driving an electric car.
我希望尽可能多的人驾驶自动驾驶汽车。
I want as many people as possible driving an autonomous car.
这才是解决气候变化问题的关键。
Like that is what solves the climate change problem.
这能让我们的城市更安静、更清洁、更美好。
That's what makes our cities quieter and cleaner and better.
既然产量在增加，为什么不降低价格，让更多人买得起呢？
Like, why not lower the price as we increase the volume and make it accessible to more people?
对失败的恐惧是失败的最大原因。
Fear of failure is the biggest cause of failure.
是的。
Yeah.
这难道不是一个很好的观点吗？
Isn't that a good one?
这话说得真精辟。
It's fucking pithy.
恐惧失败是失败的最大原因，而不是缺乏技能、理解或远见？
Is fear of failure the biggest cause of failure, not a lack of skill or understanding or foresight?
我理解这句名言的意思是，它在萌芽阶段就扼杀了东西。
The way I hear that quote is it's because it kills something in the crib.
因为害怕失败，人们根本连开始都不敢。
Like, fear of failure is why people don't even set out.
是的。
Yeah.
远远更多的人从未尝试过任何事，而不是尝试过却失败了。
The far more people have not attempted anything than have attempted something and failed at it.
是的。
Yeah.
你不会因为技能不足而失败，也不会因为耐力不够而失败
You can't fail due to skill or fail due to stamina
如果你从未
if you never
尝试过。
even try.
或者开始做。
Or start it.
是的。
Yeah.
而且，你知道，只要想想我们每个人曾经梦想过却从未尝试过的事情有多少。
And and, you know, if you just think of like how many things you've any of us have dreamed of doing but never tried.
比如，几乎是九十九比一。
Like, it's 99 to one.
嗯，你梦想的很多事情，可能本来就不该去尝试。
Well, lots of things that you dream of, you probably shouldn't try.
所以，嗯。
So Mhmm.
我想，这里有趣的细节是，这并不一定是害怕失败。
Fear of I guess, the interesting small print here is it's not necessarily fear of failure.
而是害怕这件事不值得我花时间。
It's fear of that is not worth my time.
我不应该把时间花在这件事上。
I shouldn't be spending my time on that thing.
不是因为我做不了或者做不成，而是即使我做了，也不值得。
Not that I could do it and it wouldn't work, but if I did it, it wouldn't be worth it.
我认为这是一种非常乐观且开明的看法，解释了人们为何会为那些他们内心极度想做却没去做的事找借口。
I I think that's a very optimistic and enlightened maybe view of why people rationalize not doing things that they that they do deeply wanna do.
比如，埃隆·马斯克肯定有很多梦想，他并没有去追求，除非他还能他妈的编程实现自己的梦想。
But instance, Elon Elon Musk have lots of dreams that he hasn't pursued presumably, unless unless he's also able to fucking program his own dreams.
就像，哦，那挺酷的。
It's like, oh, that would be cool.
这挺酷的。
That would be cool.
我的意思是，他是地球上最具杠杆效应的人。
I mean, he's like the most leveraged man on earth.
我觉得他确实会去追求这些随机的想法，比如隧道公司，就是堵车时想着：真他妈烦。
And I feel like he does indulge these random I mean, Boring Company was kind of a like sitting in traffic being like, fuck this.
然后他直接拿起电话，叫了一位工程师。
And he just picked the phone and picked up the phone, called one of his engineers.
他说：开始打个洞。
He's like, start making a hole.
开始研究钻探设备。
Start researching drilling machines.
我两小时后给你回电话。
I'm gonna call you back in two hours.
顺便说一句，那是在凌晨两点。
By the way, that was at 2AM.
好的。
Okay.
再见。
Bye.
就像
Like
他是在那时候做的吗？
That was when he did it?
是的。
Yeah.
凌晨两点。
At 2AM.
没错。
Yes.
给他的一个工程师打了电话，说
Rang one of his engineers and said
就是那个至今仍在经营 boarding 公司的人。
It's the guy who's still running the boarding company today.
他就像说，去做吧。
He's like, do it.
我一会儿给你回电话。
I'll call you back.
然后那个人回来，说：好吧，我找到了一些关于钻机的信息。
And then the guy comes back and says like, all right, I found this and this about the drilling machines.
我觉得它们可以在这些方面得到改进。
I think they could be improved in this and this way.
然后他去到特斯拉总部，说：我们要在停车场挖个洞。
Then he goes with Tesla headquarters and is like, We're gonna start digging a hole in the parking lot.
他们说：好啊。
They're like, Cool.
我们觉得可以在两周内拿到许可并完成。
We think we can get permits and do it in two weeks.
他说：不行。
He's like, Nope.
把所有车都移走。
Move all the cars.
马上开始。
Start right now.
我想在午夜前看到停车场里有个洞。
I want to see a hole in the parking lot at midnight.
现在才下午六点。
It's 6PM.
去吧。
Go.
这种行动上的偏执就是这种程度。
And like, it it is that level of bias to action.
就像我说的，那种疯狂的紧迫感，你得听一个又一个关于他的故事，才能真正理解——别人要花两周完成的事，他四个小时就干完了。
Like, I think maniacal urgency, the words don't really sink in until you hear story after story after story of him doing something most people take two weeks to do in four hours.
关于埃隆，最能体现疯狂紧迫感的故事有哪些？
What are the most maniacal urgency stories about Elon?
我的一个很小的例子是，他在SpaceX的工厂面试一位机加工主管。
I mean, a a small one that I think drills at home is like, he was interviewing for his head of machining at a SpaceX, at a SpaceX site.
整个面试只有二十分钟。
And it was like a twenty minute interview.
他就只是说：谈谈你的工作。
It's just like, tell me about your work.
谈谈你的背景。
Tell me about your background.
好的。
Alright.
你符合条件。
You're qualified.
达成一致吧。
Come to an agreement.
有个人站在他身后说：这是份工作邀请。
Somebody standing behind him was like, here's a job offer.
把空白处填上。
Fill in the blanks.
签了它。
Sign it.
签了它。
Sign it.
去上班。
Go to work.
比如周六晚上六点。
Like, 6PM on Saturday.
时间根本不存在。
Like, time just doesn't exist.
这无关紧要。
It's irrelevant.
就像，这一小时内最重要的事，立刻去做，然后继续推进。
It is like the whatever is the most important thing to get done in this hour, get it done immediately and keep going.
根本不存在工作与生活的界限。
Like, there is no work life cell separation.
根本没有‘以后再做’这回事。
There is no, like, do it later.
只要是最要紧的事，就得立刻做，哪怕它无关紧要。
There is like if it is the most important thing to do, do it immediately, even if it's irrelevant.
就像艾萨克森传记里提到的一些故事，他会让你立刻打电话，这种举动他称之为‘冲刺’。
Like, there's some there's stories in the Isaacson biography of him ordering you call them, like, surges.
即使根本没必要做，他也就是喜欢为紧迫而紧迫。
Even when they don't need to be done, he just he loves urgency for urgency's
什么样的？
What's such?
比如，其中一次冲刺就是堆叠星舰或者制造某个部件。
Like, one of these pushes of like, stack the starship or build that part.
所以我就想，这个部分并不是瓶颈。
And so I was like, we don't this part is not the bottleneck.
他却说，我不在乎。
He's like, I don't care.
我对你们缺乏足够的紧迫感。
I don't feel enough urgency for you.
我给你设了个截止日期。
Like, I'm giving you a deadline.
我不在乎这日期是不是随意定的。
I don't care that it's arbitrary.
我想让你感受到我所感受到的那种紧迫感。
Like, I want you to feel the kind of urgency that I feel.
到此为止。
Hard stop.
我们就是这样工作的。
Like, that's how we work.
这基本上就像给运动员进行的速训，只不过是在休赛期进行的。
It's basically speed training like you'd give to an athlete, but being done out of season.
是的。
Yeah.
而且一直如此。
And all the time.
而且很多时候，这种方式确实节省了数月、数年、数周，或者数百万美元，但也有时候会让人精疲力尽、惹恼员工，导致优秀的人才离职。
And and this is not always there are times when this has saved, you know, months or years or weeks or millions of dollars, but there's also times when it's like burn people out and piss them off and cause good people to quit.
我不得不想象，这种工作节奏的影响范围非常广，为他工作的人流动率高得惊人。
I have to imagine that the blast radius of this work rate is pretty huge, that the the churn of people working for him is is pretty insane.
当然。
For sure.
有一些人在这里工作了很长时间。
There are some people who are who are very long tenured.
但他也——我觉得这本身就是策略的一部分。
But he also I mean, I think that's part of the strategy.
就像不断更换相对年轻、才华横溢的工程师，完全没有工作与生活的平衡。
Like churning through relatively young, brilliant engineers, no work life balance.
这就是你身处狂野之境的时刻——随时都得在这儿，随叫随到。
This is this is your is your time in the wild of like, you are gonna be here all the time here at the drop of a hat.
但他一直这么干了很长时间。
But he's been doing this forever.
他在PayPal的时候就这么做过，就在合并之前，他决定要在感恩节周末上线x.com。
He did this PayPal, he decided would, when it was before they merged, but he was gonna launch x.com on Thanksgiving weekend.
当时人们都说，这根本说不通。
Like and people were like, that doesn't make any sense.
根本没人关注。
Nobody's been paying attention.
人人都在和家人团聚。
Everybody's with their families.
无所谓。
Don't care.
我们将在星期天，感恩节那天上线。
We're launching on Sunday on Thanksgiving.
我希望这里每个人随时都在。
I want everybody in here all the time.
人们会问，我能去见家人吗？
People like, can I go see my family?
不行。
Nope.
如果你不在这儿每天工作二十小时，努力赶这个截止日期，你就不够投入。
You're not dedicated if you're not in here working twenty hours a day trying to make this deadline.
一切都始终是为紧迫而紧迫。
It is urgency for urgency's sake all the time on everything.
这又回到了使命感的问题上——只有当你拥有一个令人无比振奋的使命，让人们觉得他们正在参与其中，他们才会说：是的，我愿意来上班。
And the people This goes back to purpose is like only You only get that out of people if you have this incredible mission that people feel like they're on that they're like, yes, I want to show up.
我要你全速前进。
I want you to put the pedal down.
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我想充分发挥自己的全部价值。
I want to be used for all I'm worth.
我想看看自己究竟能做到什么地步。
I want to see what I'm capable of.
我想和一群杰出的人一起，为这项极其重要的使命全力以赴。
I want to work as hard as I can with other brilliant people on this incredibly powerful mission.
我不能这样干四十年，但我可以干两年、四年，或者十年。
I And can't do it for forty years, but I can do it for two or four, ten.
埃隆会做任何自我照顾的事情吗？
Does Elon do any kind of self care?
晨间习惯、冥想、心理咨询？
Morning routine, meditation, therapy?
但似乎并没有太多证据表明他这么做，
Not that there's much evidence of,
我觉得这很有意思。
which I think is interesting.
就像地球上最有生产力的人几乎不睡觉，整天待在私人飞机上，疯狂地工作。
Like the most productive man on earth barely sleeps, like lives on his private jet, works maniacally all the time.
据我所见，他没有任何明显的好习惯。
No discernible good habits from what I can tell.
比如不注意饮食，整天吃甜甜圈。
Like not on staining like, eats donuts.
几乎没有冥想。
Like, not a lot of meditation.
几乎没有自我反思。
Not a lot of introspection.
他每天就是起床、抓起手机、抽出刀，然后每天都像去打仗一样。
Just like gets up, grabs his phone, draws a knife, and like goes to war every single day.
就像直接捅人一样。
Like, that is just Just shiv someone.
我朋友布伦特·比沙克形容经营企业就像刀锋之战。
I got that is the I've got a my friend Brent Bishark describes like operating business as a knife fight.
这就像一个随时待命的战士，你醒来后，床头放着一把刀，然后就去上班了。
And it's like an operator who's in it, like you wake up, you have a knife off the bed stand and like you go to work.
这大概就是埃隆的真实感受。
And that's actually probably how it feels with Elon.
他问过埃隆的日常安排。
He asked him his daily routine.
他说：醒来后，我检查手机，找有没有紧急情况。
He's like, wake up, I check my phone, I look for an emergency.
总会有紧急情况。
There's always an emergency.
有时候如果没有，他也会自己制造一个。
And sometimes if there's not, he creates one.
怎么会这样？
How so?
这也是来自艾萨克森的书里的内容。
This is also like from the Isaacson book.
他会说，很多时候并没有客观上的紧急情况，但有足够的理由让我们觉得：我们可以加快节奏。
He's like, there was a lot of times when there's not objectively an emergency, but there is sufficient cause to be like, we can increase the pace.
我们可以加快节奏。
We can increase the pace.
比如，想办法制造一种可能让事情推进得更快的状况，即使不一定真的能加速，但始终有一种对紧迫感的偏好。
Like, let's figure out how to create a situation that maybe gets things moving faster, maybe doesn't, but it is a bias to urgency all the time.
但我要说明的是，我并不提倡这样做。
But this And I'm not advocating this.
我不是这样生活的。
I don't live this way.
你甚至可以看懂食谱，却不想去烹饪这道菜。
Even you can see the recipe and not want to cook the dish.
但我认为这个观点对每个人来说都有用且具有普遍意义，非常像大卫·戈金斯的理念。
But the the takeaway that I think that is useful and generalizable for everybody is very David Goggins.
就是说，你实际上比自己想象的要强大得多。
It's like you're capable of a lot more than you think.
那些效率高出几个数量级的人，工作节奏和强度对大多数人来说都非常陌生。
And the people who are like massively orders of magnitude more productive are working at a pace and an intensity that is like very foreign to most people.
我认为你就是一个很好的例子。
And I think you're a good example of this.
人们可能根本无法理解，你为了完成你所做的事、覆盖你必须完成的大量工作——五年内制作800期节目——付出了多么艰苦的努力。
Like, I don't think people appreciate how hard you work to like do the things that you do and cover the amount of ground that you have to do 800 episodes in five years.
你真是个拼命三郎。
Like, you're an intense motherfucker.
你覆盖了大量领域。
Like, you cover a lot of ground.
你为此付出了极大的努力。
You work really hard to do it.
但每个人都能多做10%、50%。
It's but everybody is capable of 10% more, 50% more.
只要稍微加大油门，看看会发生什么。
Just like give the throttle a push and see what breaks.
可能什么都没有。
Might not be anything.
那么，鉴于他缺乏自我照顾，他是否关心主观体验？
So given the lack of self care, does he care about subjective experience?
幸福、满足、快乐这些事情？
The happiness, fulfillment, joy, things?
我只是觉得，那并不是他所追求的目标。
Just, don't think that's what he's optimizing for.
我觉得他并不是一个特别快乐的人。
Like, I don't think he's a particularly happy person.
我觉得他似乎并不从过去的成就中获得快乐或自豪感。
I don't think he he doesn't really seem to take joy or pride in his past accomplishments.
他总是向前看。
He's just always looking forward.
这对我们来说是一种巨大的馈赠，但对他而言却是一种负担。
And it's I mean, I feel like it's a great gift to us and a burden to him.
对吧？
Right?
比如，他身边的人总是希望他能庆祝自己的成就，希望他能休息一下，希望他能更快乐一些。
Like, I the people around him talk about like wishing that he would celebrate his accomplishments, wishing he would take a break, wishing he would be happier.
但他总是马不停蹄地奔向下一个目标。
But he's just onto the next onto the next.
而且，如果你了解他的童年，就会觉得这多少说得通了。
And like, I think when you have a glimpse in his childhood, that makes a little more sense.
正如大卫·森纳所说，父亲的故事深深嵌入了儿子的故事之中。
You get mean, his as David Senner says, like, the story of the father is embedded in the story of the son.
他父亲确实有虐待行为。
His dad was certainly abusive.
比如，言语上的虐待。
Like, there's verbally abusive.
想象一下，作为一个八岁的男孩，站在那里几个小时，看着父亲在你脸上大吼大叫，像军士长一样骂你没用、无能、愚蠢。
Imagine like standing there as an eight year old boy for hours while your dad like screamed in your face, drill sergeants, I'll call you worthless, calls you useless, calls you stupid.
当埃隆年轻时，他被狠狠地殴打了一顿。
When Elon was young, he got absolute shit kicked out of him.
不是那种和一个人打架输了，而是被一群人围殴。
Like gang stomped, not like lost a fight with one guy.
他住院了一段时间。
Hospitalized for a while.
他哥哥说，他肿得完全认不出来了。
His brother said he was like so swollen, was unrecognizable.
他父亲站在欺凌者那边，还骂他傻，说他挑了这场注定会输的架。
And his dad sided with the bullies and like called him stupid for picking a fight that he would lose.
这会带来什么影响呢？
Like, what does that do?
这只会让你内心燃起一团永不熄灭的烈火。
Like, that just creates this furnace in you that like will never stop.
所以我认为，他根本无法适应平静。
And so I think there's there's a lot of he's not comfortable with peace.
他就像总是处于战争状态，一直在寻找下一场战斗，这恰恰驱使着他不断前行。
Like he likes he is he is always at war and he's looking for the next war and that just like drives him always.
你知道，这涉及到清洁燃料和污染燃料之间的争论，到底哪种更好。
And, you know, that is one part like, know, always the debate between clean fuel and dirty fuel, like which is better.
如果你对自己内心很苛刻，觉得自己一无是处，就必须做更多事。
You know, if you're if you're like mean to yourself internally, you're like such a piece of shit, I gotta I gotta get more done.
我能做得更多。
I can do more.
我能取得更多成就。
I can accomplish more.
我可以做得更好，而不是想着：我在创造一件伟大的事物，我能完成它，这将会很棒，人们会喜欢它。
I can be better versus like, I'm building this great thing and I can do it and this is going to be awesome and people are going to love it.
我为我所做的事情感到非常自豪。
Or I'm really proud of what I've done.
我正在实现一项强大的使命。
I'm achieving this powerful mission.
埃隆两者都做。
And Elon does both.
他似乎既使用清洁能源，也使用污染燃料。
Like he burns clean fuel and dirty fuel, it seems.
他正在实现那些对人类至关重要的使命，这些使命是许多人梦想的，大家都曾认为不可能实现。
He's achieving these missions that are important to humanity that so many people dream of that everybody thought was impossible.
他取得了令人难以置信的一连串成功，但同时似乎也承受着内心的焦虑，我认为这正是推动他的动力。
And he's got this incredible string of successes, but he also has this this like internal angst, I think that that seems to drive him.
确实对痛苦有很高的容忍度。
Definitely a tolerance for pain.
他简直像是在故意为自己制造痛苦。
It almost seems like he deliberately creates suffering for himself.
是的。
Yes.
他做过那个微型住宅的事情。
He did the the tiny home thing.
他曾经卖掉了自己所有的东西。
He'd sold all of his stuff at one point.
是的。
Yeah.
他基本上可能一无所有，睡在工厂地板上。
Things may still have no possessions basically and sleeps on the factory floor.
对。
Yes.
关于财产这件事，他是这么想的：我不是那种糟糕的亿万富翁。
Which, I mean, the the possessions thing was part like he was like, I'm not not like a bad billionaire.
我是亿万富翁，因为我建立了有价值的企业。
Like, Like, I'm a billionaire because I build valuable companies.
我会卖掉我所有的东西。
Like, I'll sell all my stuff.
我不在乎。
I don't care.
我不需要奢华的东西。
I don't need fancy things.
因为人们总是拉着我。
Because people were like dragging me.
他想让你明白，我做这一切是出于正确的动机。
He's like, I want I want you to understand that like I'm in it for the right reasons.
不过我很高兴你提到睡眠。
But I'm glad you asked about sleep.
好吧。
Okay.
因为我本人是Eight Sleep的忠实粉丝。
Because I'm a huge personal fan of Eight Sleep.
如果你睡眠质量不好，或者想进一步优化睡眠，Eight Sleep可以帮助你。
If you struggle to sleep well or just wanna further optimize your sleep, Eight Sleep can help.
当我们的第一个孩子出生时，我送了它作为给妻子的惊喜，当它送到家门口时，她感动得哭了。
I got one as a surprise for my wife when we had our first baby and she wept with joy when it arrived on our porch.
它像床单一样铺在床垫上，会自动学习你的偏好，将你这一侧的床温调节最高达20度。
It goes on your mattress just like a fitted sheet and will automatically learn your preferences to cool or warm your side of the bed up to 20 degrees.
它内置传感器，可以追踪你的睡眠时长。
It's got integrated sensors that track your sleep time.
睡眠阶段，
Sleep phases,
心率变异性、打鼾和心率。
HRV, snoring, and heart rate.
别跟我提我的心率，兄弟。
No, it off my heart, dude.
别他妈替我念自己的广告词，行吗？
Don't fucking tell me my own ad read, all right?
Eight Sleep以99%的精准度，在你上床前就开始调节床的温度。
With 99% accuracy, Eight Sleep starts to warm or cool your bed before you even get into it.
这就是为什么Eight Sleep经临床验证，每晚可将总睡眠时间增加多达一小时。
That's why Eight Sleep has been clinically proven to increase total sleep up to one hour per night.
最重要的是，他们提供三十天的睡眠试用。
Best of all, they have a thirty day sleep trial.
你可以试用二十九天。
You can try it for twenty nine days.
如果你不喜欢，他们会全额退款。
And if you don't like it, they'll give you all your money back.
而且他们支持国际配送。
Plus they ship internationally.
请访问描述中的链接或访问 eightsleep.com/modernwisdom，并在结账时使用代码 modern wisdom。
Go to the link in the description or eightsleep.com/modernwisdom and use modern wisdom at checkout.
就是 eightsleep.com/modernwisdom，结账时输入 modernwisdom。
That's eightsleep.com/modernwisdom and modernwisdom at checkout.
这真是太棒了。
That was really great.
我真的是 Eight Sleep 的超级粉丝。
I really am a huge fan of Eight Sleep.
我也是。
I am too.
凡是用过的人，没有一个不疯狂喜欢的。
There's no one that's used it that doesn't get completely fucking insane about it.
是马特奥让你这么说的吗？
Did Mateo put you up to that?
因为他们刚刚在股市上市，估值达15亿美元。
Because they've just got listed for 1.5 bill on the stock exchange.
不是。
No.
你是说这个吗？
Like, is this?
我根本不认识他们。
I don't know them at all.
我只是真的非常喜欢Eight Sleep，我想着让你去试试会很有趣。
I just actually love Eight Sleep, I wanted it to, like I thought it would be really funny to make you go.
他帮我们省去了念广告的环节，这不是很棒吗？
Well, he saved us from having to do the ad read, Isn't that nice?
这周我少了一个广告读稿的任务。
That's one fewer ad read that I need to do this week.
我觉得你最近真的非常努力。
I feel like you've been working really hard.
我只是想帮你分担一点压力。
I just wanted to pick up a little bit of the slack.
我觉得嘉宾一来，所有事情都得你来操办。
I feel like the guests just show up and you have to do everything.
确实如此。
That's true.
现在你得自己付费了。
You need to pay for yourself now.
就这样吧。
That's it.
或者举办这个并不便宜。
Or this isn't cheap to put on.
你知道的。
You know?
我知道。
I know.
你需要自己承担费用。
You need to pay for yourself.
我和我的Eight Sleep有着真实而充满爱的关系，而埃隆也需要一个，因为
And I have an authentic, loving relationship with my Eight Sleep, and Elon needs one because
他之前没有任何财产。
Well, he didn't have any possessions.
这会很难的。
It's gonna be hard.
哦，那确实是真的。
Oh, that is that is true.
我不知道他们能不能把它安装在工厂地面上。
I wonder if they could fit it to the factory floor.
直接把一个Eight Sleep铺在地上就行。
Just fucking lay an Eight Sleep on the ground.
就说，嘿。
Be like, hey.
它好像就这么管用，我想。
It just sort of works, I guess.
是的。
Yeah.
你正在
You're
睡着？那个故事说的是什么？
sleeping What's on the that story?
这来自艾萨克森的书，但我认为这很有说明性。
It's from the Isaacson book, but I think it's pretty telling.
那个故事是说，当他需要开投资者会议时，首席运营官进来发现他瘫在桌子底下，几乎不得不强行把他拉起来。
What's that story about when he needed to do an investor meeting and the COO came in and found him, like, catatonic under his under his desk and basically had to like force him to get up.
是的。
Yeah.
他当时要开财报电话会，我想这大概是2018年。
He was so do an earnings call, and I I think this is like 2018.
那是一段漫长而痛苦的日子的尾声。
This is like the end of a really long stretch of just like miserable stuff.
我觉得他在心理上陷入了极度困境，整个人就躺在地板上。
And I think he was in a really tough spot psychologically, and he was just lying on the floor.
而这个家伙，值得称赞的是，他家里有人经历过心理疾病和挣扎，所以他懂该怎么处理。
And yeah, this guy, to his credit, like he's like has experience with psychological illnesses in his family and challenges.
于是他走进去，躺在他旁边，问：‘兄弟，你怎么样？’
So he kinda knew what to do, and he like went in and laid on the floor next to him and was like, How you doing buddy?
他就直接钻到桌子底下去了。
Just went under the desk.
是的
Yeah.
好的
Okay.
就躺在他旁边，问他：‘你还好吗？’
Like laid down next to him and was like, How you doing?
我知道这很难。
Like, I know it's hard.
我再给你几分钟，然后我们必须起来，尽力完成这件事。
I'm gonna take a couple more minutes and we gotta get up and we gotta do this, do our best.
这确实很难。
And it's hard.
我觉得他给自己施加了太多压力。
Like, I think I think he puts himself through a lot.
埃隆会烧掉退路，不断挑战自己。
Like, Elon burns the boats and challenges himself.
但他确实也有极限。
And But he does have limits.
是的。
Yeah.
我
I
我的意思是，如果你躺在桌子底下处于木僵状态，那就是极限了。
mean I mean, if you're lying under your desk catatonic, that's a limit.
是的。
Yeah.
伙计，二月份的时候，塔卢拉·莱利说他有夜惊。
Dude, he in the February, he was Tallulah Riley talks about him like having night terrors.
他整晚都坐起来。
He's like sitting up all night.
他还在呕吐。
He's he's throwing up.
他一直在做尖叫的噩梦。
He's having like screaming nightmares.
但这又回到了一个问题，我不想经历这样的生活。
But that goes back to, like, like, I don't want to live that experience.
但它让你明白，人们能把自己逼到多远，以及能走多远。
But it gives you a sense of how far people can push themselves and how far.
我知道。
I know.
在我看来，埃隆和布莱恩·约翰逊、大卫·戈金斯并没有太大区别，总有一些人会把任何事情做到99.999%的极致。
Look, the way that I see Elon is not too dissimilar to the way that I see Brian Johnson and also David Goggins, which is there are people who will go to the ninety nine point nine nine ninth percentile of anything and everything.
是的。
Yeah.
有这样的人在身边是有用的，因为他们让你学到所有通过突破极限才能获得的教训，但这并不意味着你应该效仿他们的做法。
And it's useful to have them around because they teach you all of the lessons that you learn by going to the absolute edge, but that doesn't mean that you should try and follow what it is that they're doing.
这并不意味着对其他人来说，这是个好策略。
It doesn't mean that it's a good strategy for anybody else to do.
但如果你要试图说布莱恩·约翰逊去那里，本质上就像军队里的侦察兵一样。
But if you're gonna try and say that Brian Johnson going and basically being like a scout in a he's he's essentially the same thing as a scout in an army.
是的。
Yeah.
他爬上那座极其险峻的山脊，到处都是危险，可能一不小心就会摔下去，天啊。
He goes up to this crazy high ridge, and it's all treacherous, and maybe he's gonna fall and oh my god.
然后他发现了一些关于那边的情况，再回来告诉我们所有人。
And then he finds out some shit about what's over there then comes back and tells us all.
对。
Yeah.
我不想过当侦察兵的生活，也不希望军队里全是侦察兵，但有几个这样的家伙确实很有用。
I'm like, I don't want to be a scout, and I don't want an army filled with scouts, but it's fucking useful to have a few.
是的。
Yeah.
尤其是这位侦察兵，他创造了这么多东西，惠及了这么多人。
Well, in particular, like this scout who is like building so many things that benefit so many people.
我认为，这一切最终都回到埃隆真实地做自己。
And I think I mean, all this comes back to like Elon is being authentically himself.
就像
Like,
谁
who
他是个极度专注的技术天才男孩，深受科幻和军事历史的影响，渴望对世界产生影响，这既源于他创伤性的童年，也源于一种宏伟的梦想与冒险精神。
he is, is this like insanely driven technical genius boy who is infused with sci fi and military history, like dreaming of making an impact on the world in part because of this traumatic childhood he had and in part because of like it's this grand dream and grand adventure.
说他有点英雄情结，觉得自己能行，并不是一种侮辱。
I don't think it's an insult to say he's like a little bit of a hero complex of like, I can do this.
我能有所作为。
I can make a difference.
我能对世界产生巨大的影响。
I can make this huge impact on the world.
幸好他这么做了。
And thank God he did.
对吧？
Right?
在过去，这种人可能会成为征服者。
Like this type of person in the past would just become like a conqueror.
但多亏了现代资本主义和技术的奇迹，他正在创造造福我们所有人的东西。
But like thanks to the miracle of modern capitalism and technology, he's building shit that benefit all of us.
当我们前往另一颗星球并亲身经历这一切时，我们有望迎来巨大的进化飞跃。
And we're gonna have this huge evolutionary leap hopefully as we go to another planet and we get to live through it.
这他妈的有多棒？
How fucking awesome is that?
不要把自己从你决定的痛苦中剥离出来。
Do not separate yourself from the pain of your decisions.
是的。
Yeah.
这一点源于制造流程和组织结构，但我认为这是一个非常普遍适用的准则。
This one is, comes from like the manufacturing process and the structure of the organization, but I think it's a very generalizable rule.
这个版本的理念是，你希望设计师、工程师和制造商都待在工厂里，这样他们就能看到自己在设计过程中所做的决策所产生的下游影响。
This version is like, you want the designers and the engineers and the manufacturers, like, they all work in the plant so they can see the downstream effects of the decisions that they make in the design process.
很容易就会试图切断你的反馈循环，从而察觉不到自己正在做有害的事情，甚至错失了去做一些可能对你有益的伟大事情的机会。
It's very it's very easy to try to break your feedback loop and not sense when you're doing something harmful or even not missing an opportunity to do something great that could benefit you.
我认为，不把自己与决策的后果隔离开来，这个想法可能是对的，我的意思是，有时候他确实需要让别人替他做事。
I think that, the idea of not insulating yourself from the outcomes of your decisions, is probably a good I mean, there has to be sometimes where he just gets other people to do stuff on his behalf.
但我知道，你必须亲自移动到问题发生的地方，立即去面对它。
But I know what's that you have to locate physically move yourself to wherever the problem is immediately.
是的。
Yes.
基本上，同样的原则。
Basically, the same rule.
对。
Yeah.
在生产线上，就是走到红色区域去。
And in the on the production line, it's like walk to the red.
生产线上到处都是绿色和红色的标识。
There's like green or red everywhere on the production line.
如果看到红色，就表示出了问题，立即过去处理。
And it's like, if something is red, there's a problem, go there immediately.
这有几种不同的版本。
There's there's a couple versions of it.
你要立即亲自到产品所在的地方去，如果你追踪他的私人飞机，就会发现他整天不停地在全球各地奔波。
Physically move yourself immediately where the product he's you should see his like, if you track his private jet, it's like all over the world constantly on the move.
所以这不仅仅是本地化地立即移动到问题所在的地方。
And so it's not just like locally move yourself to wherever the problem is immediately.
打电话叫人，把他们召集到房间里，然后亲自过去。
Call the people, get them in the room, go there.
亲自到问题发生的地方，这一点被严重低估了。
Like it's an underrated thing to be physically where the problem is.
无论什么最重要的事情，这都回归到最初的乘数效应：无论什么是最关键的事情，或者什么是最关键的瓶颈，都要立即以最有效的方式去解决，而通常最有效的方式就是亲自到问题发生的地方，亲眼目睹情况，或者把所有相关的人召集过来。
And whatever the most important this goes back to the kind of like the original multiplying things of like whatever the most important thing to do is, whatever the limiting factor is, attack it immediately in the most effective way possible, which is usually going physically to where the problem is and seeing it for yourself directly or pulling in all the people that have a handle in it.
同时进行多件事。
Do things in parallel.
是的。
Yeah.
乔治和我今天早上聊到这个，因为传统上人们认为专注是好的准则。
George and I were talking about this this morning because I think there's like conventionally good wisdom that is focus.
这正是让我感到惊讶的一点。
And this was one of the things I was surprised by.
沃伦·巴菲特有一个绝妙的比喻，可以很好地从宏观层面解释这个概念：不可能通过让九个女人怀孕来一个月内生出一个孩子。
Warren Buffett's the perfect quote to like explain this concept at a high level, which is like, can't get a baby in one month by getting nine women pregnant.
埃隆试过。
Elon's tried.
有些事情就是有不可压缩的时间成本。
So, just There are some things that there's an incompressible amount of time.
如果你把这些事情按顺序安排，那么你的时间线就会变得非常长。
And if you put those in sequence, now all of sudden your timeline is this long.
但如果你能同时种下所有种子，让它们并行生长，你的整体时间线就会缩短三分之一。
But if you can plant all the seeds at the same time and they're growing in parallel, all of a sudden your timeline is shrunk by a third.
在最宏观的层面上，普通人通常会先创办一家电动汽车公司，把它做成功，然后再去创办自己的太空公司。
And I was at the grandest scale, it's kind of like most normal people would start an electric car company, grow it, make it successful, and then start their space company.
但他却说：不。
And he was like, nah.
他们可以同时做这两件事，不妨试试看。
They can do both at once, but just give it a try.
因为这样可能会大幅提前成功的整体时间线，虽然更难、风险更高，但也能更快地获得回报。
Because we might be able to move the total timeline of success up dramatically and it's harder and it's riskier, but it also generates returns sooner.
我认为只有某些问题才适合采用这种方法。
And I think there's only some problems that are like, this is the right approach for.
他提到PayPal时期，我们一边开发产品，一边进行各种集成，同时争取监管许可。
And he talked about in PayPal is like, were developing the product and trying to do all these integrations and trying to get like regulatory coverage.
我们当时是把所有这些事情同时推进的。
And it was like, we did all of them all at once.
那简直是一团糟，但我们只用了一年就推出了产品，而不是按照常规思维那样，得先获得许可才能投资产品，得先有产品才能做集成。
It was fucking chaos, but we launched in a year instead of the three years that would have been conventional wisdom of like, it doesn't make sense to invest in the product until we have the permission and we don't have the integrations until we have the product.
他说，不，一次性全部搞定。
He was like, nope, Do it all at once.
立即发布。
Launch immediately.
太疯狂了。
Wild.
太疯狂了。
Wild.
我们不应该因为很可能发生一些悲剧，就害怕去做重要的事情。
We should not be afraid of doing something important simply because some amount of tragedy is likely to occur.
这更多是那种行动倾向，一种对恐惧的漠视。
This is more of that bias for action, this sort of disregard of fear.
而且更进一步说，我认为这在很大程度上源于他对历史的研究。
And even even further than that, it's it's, I think that's comes from his study of history in in a lot of ways.
他说，我认为这句话的完整版本是：如果我们从不冒险，那么美国根本不会存在。
He says, I think the extended version of that quote is like, if we did, if you if you never take a risk, like the The United States wouldn't exist.
每一个伟大的冒险都伴随着风险，总会有人牺牲。
Like every great adventure involves risk and people will die.
我们必须接受这一点。
And we have to accept that.
我们这个社会的倾向已经走得太远了，仿佛天啊，任何人都不能受到任何伤害。
We are the pendulum is swung too far towards like, oh my God, nobody can ever be harmed in any way.
任何人都不允许冒生命危险。
Nobody is allowed to risk their life.
任何人都不允许尝试实验性治疗。
Nobody's allowed to take experimental treatments.
这样下去，我们根本无法取得进步。
It's like we can't make progress like this.
你知道吗？
You know?
殖民火星是一场伟大的冒险。
Colonizing Mars is a grand adventure.
这涉及风险。
It involves risk.
并不是所有事情都会顺利，但尤其是当人们选择承担这些风险，甚至以生命为代价来为人类实现这一伟大壮举时。
Like not everything is going to go right, but especially if people choose to take those risks or risk their life to accomplish this great feat for humankind.
人类天生有一种感觉，那就是通过自我牺牲来推动整个人类的进步，这会带来满足感。
There's something inherent about humans sort of feeling fulfilled, sacrificing themselves to further humanity as a whole.
对我来说，这句话就像是：管他呢，全速前进。
And I think to me that quote is like, yeah, damn the torpedoes.
让我们干吧。
Like, let's do it.
你觉得关于埃隆成功的最误导人的说法是什么？
What do you think is the most misleading narrative about Elon's success?
这取决于你站在哪个立场。
It depends which camp you're kind of coming from.
我认为有一些死忠粉丝完全无视他的负面之处。
I think there are diehard fanboys that have just, like, total blindfold to the the negatives.
我认为很多人，尤其是在他涉足政治之后，持有大量事实上错误的观念，并深信不疑。
And I think there's a lot of people, especially after his sort of political chapter, that have just a whole bunch of ideas that are factually incorrect that they believe as deep truths.
我的意思是，任何一个地球上最著名的人之一。
I mean, like anybody who is I one of most famous people on earth.
对吧？
Right?
一旦名气达到某种程度，似乎每个人都会陷入一种扭曲的状态。
Like and past a certain level of fame, think there's like a derangement syndrome about everybody.
所以我认为，要找到关于他的中立或全面客观的看法其实很难。
So I think it's actually kind of hard to find a neutral or a, like, well rounded set of opinions on him.
这真是
That's a
很有道理。
good point.
我一直在想埃隆和马克·扎克伯格的对比。
I I was thinking about Elon in comparison with Mark Zuckerberg.
当然，有些人并不喜欢马克。
And, sure, there's some people that don't like Mark.
考艾岛的居民对他大量购买土地并不买账，还有其他一些零散的不满。
The the people of Kauai aren't massive fans of him buying up a ton of land, and there's other bits and pieces.
但我认为人们对他并没有狂热的憎恨，也没有狂热的崇拜。
But I don't think people have, like, insane fervor against him or insane fervor for him.
是的。
Yeah.
但埃隆似乎要极端得多。
But Elon seems to be much more barbelly.
对吧？
Right?
如果你画个图，两端就是一对乳房。
If you were to draw a graph, it's just a pair of boobs at the end.
而大多数人的情况更像是一个钟形曲线，但埃隆却完全避开了中间部分。
Whereas, you know, most most people are kind of a bell curve, whereas Elon's managed to completely clear the middle.
是的。
Yeah.
我觉得以前并不是这样的。
I don't think that used to be true.
比如，这是否是因为他涉足了政治领域才导致的？
Like, is that is that do you think that's a byproduct of him having a political chapter?
是的。
Yeah.
我想是吧。
I guess so.
然后这奠定了基础，上面又叠加了财富、巨额财富，以及这个潜在的IPO项目。
And then that creates the foundation, and on top of that is wealth, huge amounts of wealth, this potential IPO thing.
是的。
Yeah.
他很极端。
He's spiky.
我的意思是，他确实有一种未经雕琢的幽默感，就这样直接展现出来。
I mean, he's he is, like he's an unrefined sense of humor that he, like, puts out there.
如果他如此关注行动倾向、解决最大问题、瓶颈等，为什么还要保持如此公开的曝光度？
What do you if he's so concerned about the bias to action, working on the biggest problem, the bottlenecks, etcetera, why have such a public presence?
比如，为什么经常发推文？
Like, why tweet a lot?
是的。
Yeah.
你确实会在平台上活跃，但播客、采访之类的东西，如果拿他和詹姆斯·戴森这样的人比较，后者在某些技能领域其实并没有太大不同。
You're on the platform or whatever, but podcasts and interviews and stuff like that, if you're the I compare him with someone like James Dyson, right, who kind of from some areas of a skill set is not massively different.
是的。
Yeah.
塞纳告诉我，他曾经和詹姆斯·戴森坐下来谈过。
Senra told me about when he sat down with James Dyson.
詹姆斯·戴森已经做了成千上万甚至更多的原型。
James Dyson's done thousand maybe tens of thousands of prototypes.
是的。
Yeah.
他说他仔细观察过詹姆斯·戴森的手。
He said he was looking at James Dyson's hands.
詹姆斯·戴森的手就像亚历克斯·霍诺尔德的手，粗糙、布满筋腱、厚实坚硬，简直像他手臂末端长出的粗壮疙瘩。
So James Dyson's hands were like Alex Honnold's hands, these gnarled you you could the sinewy, tough, thick things, these fucking choads on the end of his the end of his arms.
我不知道。
And, I don't know.
比如，这种程度的公开曝光究竟起到了什么作用，我觉得这一点很有意思。
The the that that element, for instance, what's the role that that level of exposure is playing, I think, is an interesting one.
对。
Yeah.
我觉得他长期以来一直就喜欢这种风格。
He's had a he's had sort of a taste for that for a long time, I think.
他约会过女演员，住在洛杉矶那种地方。
He's, like, dated actresses and kind of living in LA.
但某种程度上，拥有这种个人存在感并谈论自己在做什么，他需要争取支持。
But there's an element to which, like, having that personal presence and talking about what you're doing, like, he needs to rally support.
你需要一个优秀的团队。
Like, you need a great team.
你需要投资者。
You need investors.
你需要公众的支持。
You need popular support.
想想看，要说服人们相信电动车不仅不蠢，而且他妈的太棒了，有多难。
Like, think about how hard it was to convince people that electric cars were not just not stupid, but fucking awesome.
嗯。
Mhmm.
这需要大量的重复。
Like, that took a lot of repetition
这太疯狂了。
It is nuts.
想想看，当回溯过去，普锐斯曾是当时最著名的电动车。
Think when you when you roll back the clock that the Prius was like the eminent preeminent fucking electric car.
它只是混合动力车。
It was just a hybrid.
是的。
Like Yeah.
真正的电动车甚至更差。
The real electric cars were even worse.
嗯。
Mhmm.
对。
Yeah.
当时真的很难理解，当他刚开始做特斯拉时，人们觉得这想法有多愚蠢和疯狂。
It was it was really I think it's difficult now to understand how stupid and insane it seemed when he started Tesla.
火箭也是同样的情况。
And the same thing with the rocket.
那时候根本没有什么太空初创公司。
Like, there were no space startups.
太空经济根本就不存在。
Like, space economy was not a thing.
NASA已经持续低迷了整整五十年。
And NASA had been on this, like, slow decline for, like, fifty years.
我们还得花钱请俄罗斯人把我们的宇航员送上空间站。
We were paying Russia to take our astronauts up to the space station.
这些做法不仅不显而易见，简直可以说是普遍认为疯狂的。
Like, these were by no means these not just not obvious, but like very consensus insane things to do.
本集由Gymshark赞助播出。
This episode is brought to you by Gymshark.
多年来，我试过几乎所有品牌的健身服饰。
I've tried pretty much every brand of gym wear over the years.
网站上看起来大部分都还不错，但真正训练时能撑住的却很少，这就是我如此钟爱Gymshark的原因。
Most of it looks good on the website, but very little of it survives real world training, which is why I'm such a massive fan of Gymshark.
尤其是黑色和藏青色的混搭短裤，现在几乎成了我在健身房的标配。
The hybrid shorts, especially in onyx gray and navy, are basically my uniform in the gym at this point.
它们活动起来非常自如。
They move properly.
不会卷边或起皱。
They don't bunch.
超级轻盈。
They're super lightweight.
你一个下午就能洗好晾干。
You can wash and dry them in an afternoon.
Geo无缝T恤是我几乎每次训练时都穿的。
The geo seamless t shirt is what I train in almost every single session.
透气性好，洗完后依然保持原形。
Breathes properly, holds its shape after you wash it.
Gymshark 的所有产品都轻便、吸湿排汗、易于清洗且干得快。
Everything that Gymshark makes is lightweight and sweat wicking and easy to wash and dries fast.
如果你还在犹豫，他们提供三十天无理由退货，你可以购买后试用二十九天。
And if you're still on the fence, they offer a thirty day free return, so you can buy it and try it for twenty nine days.
如果你不喜欢，直接退回来就行。
If you don't like it, just send it back.
而且，他们支持国际配送。
Plus, they ship internationally.
现在，通过下方描述中的链接访问网站，或前往 jim.sh/modernwisdom 并在结账时使用代码 modern wisdom 10，即可享受全站商品九折优惠。
And right now, you can get 10% off everything site wide by going to the link in the description below or heading to jim.sh/modernwisdom and using the code modern wisdom 10 at checkout.
就是 jim.sh/modernwisdom，结账时使用 modern wisdom 10 这个代码。
That's jim.sh/modernwisdom and modern wisdom 10 at checkout.
跟我聊聊 SpaceX 吧。
Talk to me about SpaceX.
大多数人对这个项目不了解的地方是什么？他是怎么把它做到今天这个地步的？
What's the what do most people not understand about that that project to where how he sort of got it to where it is in his place?
我的意思是，SpaceX，我认为大多数人不知道它最初纯粹是一个慈善项目。
I mean, SpaceX, I think most people don't realize started as, like a pure philanthropy project.
他当时在浏览NASA网站，想着：我们什么时候去火星？
He was looking at the NASA website saying, when are we gonna go to Mars?
我们五十年前就登上了月球。
We went to the moon fifty years ago.
为什么我们再也没有回去？什么时候才能去火星？
Why haven't we been back and when are we gonna go to Mars?
肯定是有计划的吧。
Surely, there's a plan.
但根本就没有计划。
And there was no plan.
那时他刚从PayPal成功退出。
And he was coming off of his first exit with PayPal.
所以他银行里有两亿美元左右。
So he had $200,000,000 or something in the bank.
他想，我就花一亿美元，看看能不能推动NASA的预算。
And he's like, I'll just spend a 100,000,000 to like see if I can increase NASA's budget.
这纯粹是慈善行为。
It was pure philanthropy.
他说，我要买一枚火箭。
He's like, I'm gonna buy a rocket.
我要造一个小温室。
I'm gonna make a little greenhouse.
我要把它运到火星，拍一张红色星球上幼小植物的照片。
I'm gonna ship it to Mars, and I'm gonna get a photo of a little baby plant on the red planet.
那将是第一个出现在其他星球上的生命，这将激发一场运动，激励大众。这就是它的起源故事。
It'll be the first life on another planet and that'll catalyze this movement and inspire people this popular That was the origin story.
是的。
Yeah.
当时叫火星绿洲。
Was called Mars Oasis.
那就是关键所在。
That was the thing.
为了实现这个目标，他四处寻找购买火箭的机会。
And to do this, he like went around trying to buy a rocket.
他觉得，为什么这些火箭贵得离谱？
He's like, why are these rockets so fucking expensive?
他去了俄罗斯，试图购买一枚洲际弹道导弹。
He went to Russia and tried to buy an intercontinental ICBM.
他们嘲笑他，羞辱他，故意耍弄他，让他气得不行。
And they laughed at him and spit on him and like fucked him around and he got pissed.
于是他想，也许问题在于太空发射的成本太高了。
And so he's like, maybe the problem is that space launch costs are so high.
为什么火箭这么贵？
How Why are rockets so expensive?
难道就不能做得更好吗？
Can't they be done better?
于是他召集了一群有经验的火箭工程师到他家里。
And so he gathered a bunch of rocket engineers who had experience at his house.
我觉得这是这个故事中有趣的一部分。
I think this is a interesting part of the story.
他组织了一系列周六研讨会，采用第一性原理的方法。
He's like, did a series of like Saturday sessions of like, first principles.
让我们看看所有历史上的做法，但也要思考，结合现代技术和现代设计，能做到多好？
Let's look at all the historical things, but let's also say like how good could good be with all the modern technology, modern design.
我们能否设计出一种方案，大幅降低太空发射成本，使这一切成为可能？
Like, is there a design that we can come up with that would be a massive improvement in space launch costs such that this would be possible?
他意识到，太空发射的市场才是瓶颈所在。
And he realized like the market for space launch, that was the bottleneck.
真正的问题在于，你无法以足够低的成本把东西送入太空，因为我们只有航天飞机，这是一个庞大而臃肿的政府项目，资本效率极低。
That was the real problem that like you couldn't get stuff off the planet cheap enough because all we had was space shuttle, which is this like massive bloated government program that's not particularly capital efficient.
他们根本没有迭代改进。
They weren't iterating.
他们没有大规模生产。
They weren't doing volume.
他们在基础零件上花费过多，因为所有部件都像是航天级的之类的。
They were way overspending on basic parts because they were all like aerospace grade or whatever.
所以一等到PayPal被收购，他就说：好吧。
And so as soon as the PayPal thing sold, he's like, alright.
我要去了。
I'm gonna go.
我要雇一些火箭工程师，看看我们能不能做成这件事。
I'm gonna hire some rocket engineers and like, let's see if we can do this.
最初的阿波罗11号设计图不是免费在网上就能找到的吗？
Wasn't the original like the Apollo 11 blueprints available just free online.
那部分是不是说，你能拿到火箭的设计图？
Wasn't that part of it that you were able to get rocket blueprints?
我觉得你可以直接下载下来。
You could just download them, I think.
或者他把自己的资料免费提供了。
Or maybe he made his available for free.
也许吧。
Maybe.
我的意思是，他说他自己根本不是火箭科学家。
I mean, he's like, when you add he's not a rocket scientist.
所以他问，你是怎么学会这些的？
So he's like, how did you learn how to do this?
他说，我只是看书，跟人交流。
And he's like, I just read books and I talk to people.
我把能找到的所有火箭科学教材都读了一遍。
I read all the textbooks on rocket science that I could find.
我借来这些书，然后开始向专家请教。
I borrowed them and I started talking to experts.
他的火箭推进工程师是个顶尖的火箭爱好者。
And his rocket propulsion engineer was a guy who was like the foremost like rocket hobbyist.
他只是一个普通人，在自家车库里建造了世界上最大的单台火箭发动机，这个人就是汤姆·穆勒，他就是他的火箭推进工程师。
He had built the single largest like rocket engine as just a dude in his garage, Tom Mueller, and that was his propulsion engineer.
你被录用了。
You're hired.
是的。
Yeah.
你他妈的被录用了。
You're fucking hired.
好吧。
Okay.
那现在呢？
And then what about now?
显然，成本已经下降了惊人的倍数。
Like what obviously, the cost has come down by some insane factor.
你知道吗
Know that
数量级的提升，这主要由星链驱动，并且还会进一步加剧。
Orders of magnitude, which is is driven Starlink and is gonna drink drive even more.
现在他还在谈论建造戴森球，这是一种类似太阳能但位于太空中的结构，可以捕获比地球从太阳接收到的还要多的能量。
And now he's talking about, like, building a Dyson sphere, which is like solar, but in space, we can capture more energy than even hits the the earth from the sun.
他不是也一直在说要把计算设备部署到太空中吗？
And that hasn't he been talking about putting compute in space as well?
是的。
Yeah.
这些巨大的扁平板状结构就像太阳能板，但集成了计算设备和激光器。
These these like big flat sheets that are like solar panels with compute and then like lasers.
是的。
Yeah.
哦，原来如此。
Oh, okay.
我之前没意识到戴森球是用来为计算设备供电的。
I didn't realize that the Dyson sphere would power the compute.
是的。
Yeah.
这就像是许多太阳能板，背面装有计算机芯片，能在太空中相互通信，漂浮在各处，这简直疯狂至极。
It's just like a bunch of like solar panels with computer chips on the back that like can communicate with each other floating all around in space, which is insane and wild.
但这并不是主要目标。
But the that's not the mission.
这些太阳能板加芯片的组合，才是让星舰能够经济地制造数百甚至数千艘的关键载荷。
Like that is a that is the cargo that makes Starship economic to build hundreds or thousands of them.
但真正的目标是让生命成为多行星物种。
But the actual mission is to make life multi planetary.
这又回到了他宏大而利他的慈善理念：看吧，我们都应该同意，我们不希望已知的宇宙中唯一的生命形式消亡。
And this goes back to like zoomed all the way out his altruistic philanthropic things is like, look, we should all agree that we do not want the only form of life that we know in the universe to die.
我们是目前已知的唯一有意识的生物。
Like, we are the only conscious beings we know.
地球是我们已知的唯一有生命的星球。
Earth is the only planet with life that we know of.
我们能不能都同意，让生命搬到隔壁去会很棒呢？
Can we all agree that like it would be great to have life move just just next door?
就在火星上搞点生命吧。
Just get some on Mars.
搞个几百万人，你知道的，也许一百万。
Just get a couple, you know, maybe a million people.
种些植物。
Get some plants.
如果彗星撞上地球，或者我们自取灭亡，或者爆发灾难性疫情，至少我们还有另一条出路。
Like, if a comet hits earth or we blow ourselves up or there's a catastrophic pandemic, like we've got another horse in the race.
就像，
Like,
无论你是环保主义者、人文主义者，还是其他任何立场，这都是一件我们应该普遍认同的好事。
whether you're an environmentalist or a humanist or anything like this is a thing that we should universally agree is good.
那为什么不努力去实现呢？
And why not go for it?
就像他说的，这是人类历史上，甚至是地球历史上第一次出现这样的窗口期。
Like he's like, this is the window that is for the first time in not just human history, but earth's history.
我们有能力让生命不再局限于地球，将其带到另一颗星球。
We have the ability to make life redundant, get it to another planet.
这难道不是我们所能构想的最宏伟的使命之一吗？
And isn't that like one of the grandest missions that we can conceive of?
他把这件事放在了进化的时间尺度上，对吧？
And he puts it on this evolutionary timescale, right?
比如，突然出现了单细胞生命，然后是多细胞生命。
So like there was suddenly single celled life, and then multi celled life.
接着出现了鱼类，然后鱼类登上陆地，再分化出植物和动物，以及各种生命形式。
And then there was, fish, and then the fish came on land, and then the split into like plants and animals, and different forms of life.
从地球迈向我们的第一颗新星球，是生命成功程度和应对未来任何挑战的韧性上的一次巨大飞跃。
And going from earth to our first new planet is this massive step function in basically how successful life is and its resilience to whatever comes next.
你认为SpaceX长期来看会有多成功？
How successful do you think SpaceX is gonna be long term?
难以置信。
Unbelievably.
他们几乎垄断了离开地球的收费站。
They have, essentially a monopoly on the tollbooth off the planet.
而且像，有大约90个
And like like, there there's some 90 if
不是90，直接过关。
not not 90 pass go.
不要去月球。
Do not go to the moon.
给我200美元。
Give me $200.
即使他们从未建造星舰，也有可能成为地球上最伟大的公司之一。
They could have been the great one of the greatest companies on earth even if they never built Starship.
即使他们仅仅依靠猎鹰九号实现现金流，并且是唯一一家可重复使用火箭公司。
Even if they just like cash flowed off of Falcon nine and they were the only reusable rocket company.
他们本会是一家极其成功的公司，但他们正在将资金重新投入星舰项目。
They would have been an unbelievably successful company, but they are reinvesting into Starship.
他们正试图在太空中构建计算和能源系统。
They're trying to build compute and energy in space.
他们正试图建造一个——我认为他最近一直在谈论月球上的电磁弹射器，用它来制造类似冯·诺依曼探测器之类的各种疯狂装置。
They're trying to build a I think he's been talking now about like a mass driver on the moon that'll build these like Von Neumann probes and all kinds of other crazy stuff.
但他所引用的历史类比是：这就像新大陆被发现的时候。
But the historical analogy that he talks about is like, this is when the new world was discovered.
在西方人类历史的大部分时间里，我们都围绕着地中海生活。
We all existed around the Mediterranean for most of Western human history.
然后突然之间，哥伦布发现了新大陆，人们意识到：好吧，我们需要新的航运技术。
And then all of a sudden Columbus discovered the new world and it's like, all right, need new shipping technology.
我们对新大陆的所有奢侈品都产生了渴望。
We have a taste for all of the fineries of this new world.
有太多人愿意为船票付费。
So many people wanna pay for passage.
这就像一场经济盛宴。
And it's like this economic bonanza.
再把视角拉远一点，整个太阳系中大部分原材料在哪里？
And just zoom all the way out again and like, where are most of the raw materials in the solar system?
更不用说银河系了，根本不在地球上。
Let alone the galaxy, like not on earth.
我们有一种偏见，认为只有木材和农田才是重要的原材料。
We have this bias to the the only raw materials that matter are like wood and farmland.
但其他星球、小行星带，甚至太空中漂浮的物质，都含有原子级别的原材料。
But there are raw materials, atomic raw materials on every other world and in the asteroid belt and just like floating around in space.
而获得能够抵达这些资源的技术——星舰，将为人类带来难以置信的福祉。
And getting the technology, the Starship to go access them is going to be an unbelievable boon for humanity.
但要达到这一点，确实需要一次想象力的飞跃。
But it does take that like leap of imagination to get there.
那特斯拉呢？
What about Tesla?
我认为特斯拉正经历着这些初创公司典型的S型曲线增长。
Tesla is I think going through like these startups are stacked s curves.
对吧？
Right?
电动汽车是一项非常根本的创新。
And so electric cars was one very fundamental innovation.
自动驾驶则是另一项完全不同的创新。
Autonomy is a whole another one.
因此，能否实现向自动驾驶的跨越是一个巨大的问号。
And so a big question mark is this leap to autonomy.
而他已经在展望下一个方向，开发人形机器人。
And then he's already looking around this corner to do humanoid robots.
这也将进入特斯拉的业务范围。
That's going into Tesla.
是的。
Yeah.
人形机器人正在进入特斯拉。
Humanoid robots are in Tesla.
他刚刚关闭了Model X和Model S的生产线，转而生产人形机器人。
He's he's just shut down, the Model X and the Model S production lines and switched them over to building humanoid robots.
所以这个进展会很快到来。
So like that is coming quickly.
他正从开始制造完全自动驾驶、没有方向盘的机器人出租车入手。
He's going from starting to build robotaxis that are like fully autonomous, no steering wheel.
因此他认为自动驾驶的发展曲线已经到来。
So thinking that the autonomy kind of curve is there.
他还提到，这将是有史以来最大的市场之一。
And he talks about this being one of the biggest markets of all time.
而他的乐观情绪甚至更加强烈。
And that optimist is even bigger.
他还正在建造数量惊人的电池，我认为这一点被低估了，因为这不是消费类产品，而是推动太阳能到电池电网转型的关键，这将加速驱动人工智能革命所需的能源。
He's also now I think this is underrated because it's a not a consumer product, but he's building they are building an unbelievable amount of batteries, which is powering the kind of like solar to battery grid conversion, which is going to speed up energy that drives all the compute for the AI revolution.
而且他们还完全是垂直反向整合的。
And then there's a whole another kind of they they are backwards vertically integrated.
比如他们刚刚建了一座新的锂精炼厂。
Like they're producing they just built a new lithium refinery.
因此他们说，在很多情况下，我们的供应链是受限的。
And so they're like, we we we are supply constrained in many cases.
所以他们正不断向供应链的更上游推进。
And so they're like working backwards, further and further into their supply.
甚至到了要前往其他星球获取更多原材料的地步。
Literally to the point where they're looking to go to new planets so that they can get more raw materials.
是的。
Yeah.
他确实说过，他认为特斯拉将来会在月球上建一座工厂，这我就不知道了。
He does did say he thinks Tesla's gonna have a factory on the moon, which like, I don't know.
我不知道这些公司最终会不会合并在一起，但确实，X现在已经归XAI所有，而XAI又属于SpaceX。
I don't know if these companies all end up kind of smashed together eventually or what, but, he did X is now owned by XAI, which is now owned by SpaceX.
所以出现了一种凝聚的趋势。
So there's some sort of congealing.
嗯哼。
Mhmm.
但我不知道特斯拉和SpaceX会不会在某个时候合并。
But I don't know if Tesla and and SpaceX will will merge at some point.
那这些人形机器人呢？
What about these humanoid robots?
我的意思是，我不知道。
I mean, I don't know.
这可能会成为有史以来最大的市场之一，彻底打破经济， usher in 一个充满丰裕的疯狂时代。
It's either gonna be one of the biggest markets of all time that totally like breaks the economy and ushers in this crazy era of abundance.
但我认为普及会很缓慢，因为人们总是对新事物接受得慢，尤其是当它们处于恐怖谷阶段时。
But I think it'll be slow adoption just because people are slow to adopt things that are in particular when they're like in the uncanny valley.
所以商业用途方面，我认为在工厂之类的地方会有很多应用。
So commercial uses, I think there'll be like a ton of them in factories and stuff like that.
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