Breaking Down the Multi-Manager Playbook: How This $19B CIO Thinks About Alpha | Sean McGould | The Lighthouse Group

日本市场跟五年前已经大不一样了。

Japan is a different market than what it was five years ago.

所以2021年6月，企业治理准则实际上进行了修订。

So in June 2021, yeah, the corporate governance code was effectively revised.

从此企业开始更关注净资产收益率、资本配置这些方面。

So started to care more about things like return on equity, capital allocation, etcetera.

这些改革实施以来，日经指数每年的回报率比标普500高出大约8%。

The bottom line, since those changes were enacted is that the Nikkei has outperformed the S and P 500 by about 8% per year.

如果看那段时间日经指数里平均一只股票的表现，年均涨幅接近9%。

If you look at the average stock in the Nikkei over that time period, it's up about 9% a year.

那到底是什么带来了这样的变化？

So what's made that difference?

你好，欢迎收听《别人的钱》。

Hello, and welcome to Other People's Money.

我是马克斯·维特，今天邀请到的是灯塔集团的首席执行官兼首席投资官肖恩·麦戈尔德，他管理的另类投资资产规模约为190亿美元。

I'm Max Wiethe, and I'm joined today by Sean McGould, CEO and CIO of The Lighthouse Group and alternatives manager with approximately $19,000,000,000 in assets under management as we record today.

在开始之前，我想先做个简短的声明：肖恩所表达的观点仅代表他个人。

And before we get started, I'd like to do a quick disclaimer that the views expressed by Sean are his own.

这些观点基于录制时的情况，可能会随时变动。

They are as of this date of the recording, and they are subject to change.

本讨论仅作信息参考，不构成任何投资建议，对话中的任何内容均不构成出售或招揽购买任何证券的要约。

The discussion is for informational purposes only, does not constitute investment advice, and nothing in this conversation is an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.

好了，说正题之前，肖恩，非常感谢你今天能来。

With that out of the way, Sean, thank you so much for joining me today.

谢谢，麦克斯。

Thanks, Max.

很高兴能参加这个节目。

I really appreciate being on.

好的。

Alright.

如今，另类资产管理这个领域可真是涵盖面太广了。

Well, alternatives manager, it's such a broad space these days.

我们能不能稍微聚焦一下？

Can we narrow it down a little bit?

Lighthouse 主要做哪些方面？

What does Lighthouse specialize in?

Lighthouse 主要专注于对冲基金策略。

Lighthouse specializes in hedge fund strategies.

我们承担的风险中，大约三分之二来自全球股票市场。

So about two thirds of the risk that we take is, in equities around the globe.

另外大约百分之二十五集中在事件驱动型策略，比如并购套利、SPAC 这类投资。

About another 25% is in more event driven strategies like merger arbitrage and SPACs and those sorts of things.

剩下的百分之十五是宏观相关策略，但都是流动性好的资产，不涉及房地产、私募股权或风险投资。

And the final 15% is in macro related strategies, but liquid, no real estate, private equity venture capital.

明白了。

All right.

既然有这么多不同的策略，那你觉得哪一块现在增长最快？

So my question would be with all of those different strategies, what's growing?

目前投资者的需求在哪里？

Where is the investor demand right now?

过去十年，人们总说对冲基金需求不足，但最近几年，机构投资者对对冲基金的需求实际上大幅上升了。

Hedge funds for the past decade, people have been talking about the lack of demand, but really over the past few years, hedge fund demand has has very much increased from institutional investors.

从你的角度看，有感受到这种变化吗？

Are you seeing that in from your seat?

确实有。

Definitely.

现在人们对对冲基金策略的兴趣，明显比几年前高多了。

There there's more interest in hedge fund strategies now certainly than there was a couple of years ago.

我觉得有几方面发生了变化。

I think a few things have changed.

几年前看另类投资的格局，当时排在首位的大概是私募信贷。

If you looked at the landscape of alternative investments a couple of years ago, probably the top of the list was private credit at that time.

最近关于私募信贷的新闻挺多的。

There have been some headlines around private credit.

我觉得它仍会是一个可行的资产类别。

I think it will continue to be a viable asset class.

私募信贷领域并不是所有东西都集中在软件行业。

Not everything is caught up in the software sector in private credit.

我觉得现在大家又开始重视投资组合中加入一些对冲策略，并且希望这些策略具备良好的流动性。

And I think there's a renewed interest in having some more hedged approaches in portfolios and having them liquid in nature.

接下来我们会谈到亚洲投资的兴起，以及日本、韩国、中国这些市场正在发生的一些有趣变化，但相比非流动性较强的渠道，通过流动性更强的策略进入这些市场显然更容易。

And I know one of the things we'll hit on next will also be just the advent of Asian investing and some of the interesting things that are going on in those markets, but probably a lot easier to access throws through liquid strategies than through less liquid strategies and either private credit, private equity within both Japan, South Korea, China.

流动性其实包含两个方面。

Well, there's liquidity is two things.

一方面是底层资产的流动性，另一方面是投资工具本身的流动性。

It's the liquidity of the underlying assets, but there's also the liquidity of of the vehicles.

我们看到对冲基金的赎回限制正在增加。

We are seeing gating on hedge funds jump up.

这不仅仅是投资本身的问题，还涉及资产的锁定情况。

Is it not just the investments, but also asset lockups?

是的，没错。

Well, yeah.

为了具体说明一下，我们其实还没看到对冲基金出现过锁定期限制。

And just to quantify that, we really haven't seen gated lockups on, I would say, hedge funds.

对冲基金内部确实有一些条款。

There are terms within the hedge fund.

有些对冲基金产品提供的流动性周期更长。

There are some offerings within hedge funds that have longer liquidity to them.

但最近那些所谓的锁定期，其实主要出现在私募信贷领域，投资者根本拿不回本金。

But I think the most recent lockups in Gates have actually referred to private credit where investors couldn't get their capital out.

这些是贷给企业、个人等的私人贷款。

Those are private loans being made to companies, individuals, whatever it is.

我们交易的市场，从股票、债券到货币和大宗商品，基本都是交易所挂牌的公开市场。

The markets that we trade in are generally all listed markets from an equity perspective, a bond perspective, or their currencies, commodities that are traded on exchanges.

我觉得关键在于，如果大家突然要求赎回，而市场又表现很差，那流动性成本会非常高。

I think the one thing is that if people ask for liquidity and the markets were trading very poorly, the cost of that liquidity is quite high.

现在赎回可能不是个好时机。

It's probably the wrong time to redeem.

但如果你回看2008年那段时间，确实发生过这种情况。

But if you go back to a time period like 2008, certainly saw that where that occurred.

赎回率、流动性与资产价格之间的匹配，这些因素中有些是投资者能掌控的，但最近更多的限制措施都出现在私募信贷领域。

So matching up, redemption rates, with liquidity and asset prices, all those things, some of those things are in the control of the investors, but, more of the gating that's happened recently has been in private credit.

对。

Yeah.

不过，‘对冲’这个词在对冲基金里也值得仔细琢磨一下。

Well, hedge in hedge fund is also a keyword to examine a little bit.

市面上很多对冲基金的市场敞口变化很大，可能从高杠杆做多变成高杠杆做空。

There are many hedge funds out there that have market exposure that can fluctuate from leveraged long to leveraged short.

没错。

Yeah.

不，马克斯，你说得非常对。

No, Max, that's a very good point.

我们通常更倾向于中立立场，尤其是在股票多空投资方面。

We tend to be much more on the neutral side, particularly as it relates to equity long short investment.

明白了。

Okay.

这种较低的市场敞口挺有意思，像2022年这样的年份，市场中性策略的表现特别突出。

And so that lower market exposure, it is funny because in years like 2022, the outperformance of market neutral strategies is very pronounced.

但最近几年，美国市场的表现简直太猛了。

But we've had some absolute rippers in The U.

美国。

S.

相比之下，美国以外的股市最近表现更好，这正推动投资者更多地关注海外市场的投资机会。

Equity markets more recently outside of The US, and that is increasing investor interest in looking beyond US borders for exposure.

但如果你经常刷金融圈的推特，每年一公布多策略中性对冲基金的收益，总有人在底下嘀咕：标普都涨成那样了，谁还稀罕这个？

But especially if you are somebody who hangs out around financial Twitter, every year the multi strat market neutral hedge fund returns come out and you see chirping from the peanut gallery about who would want this when the S and P did this.

我觉得机构投资者根本不会这么想。

I think institutional investors do not really think that way.

所以我很想听听你对在当前这种牛市环境下，对冲策略能发挥什么作用的看法。

And so I'd be interested in hearing your perspective on the role of more hedged strategies in these bull market environments that we find ourselves in these

是的。

Yeah.

我认为，马克斯，全球有不少机构投资者正在努力应对他们的负债需求。

I I think, Max, there are there are a a number of institutional investors around the the globe that are really trying to meet liabilities.

他们试图让回报与负债相匹配，但有些机构根本承受不了把全部资产都押在股市上的绝对风险。

So they are trying to match up, liabilities with returns, and some of them can't take the absolute risk of, putting all of their assets into the equity markets.

如果你把100%的资金都投在股市上，而股市像过去五年那样表现强劲，那当然没问题。

So if you had a 100% in the equity markets and they did like they did for the last five years, everyone's gonna be fine.

你的负债能被覆盖，一切照常。

You're gonna meet those liabilities that you have and life goes on.

但对另一些人来说，他们必须更谨慎一些。

For others, they need to be a little bit more prudent.

当你回顾新冠时期，或者全球金融危机之后的那些年，利率几乎为零，通胀却在上升，实际回报是负的——这时候，对冲基金其实能在投资组合中扮演重要角色，它的风险水平正好介于股票和传统债券之间。

And when you look at the choice between hedge funds, if you go back to the COVID time period or other time periods after the global financial crisis, interest rates are literally zero and you have inflation and you've got negative real returns, I think hedge funds can play a very large role in a portfolio by having some sort of risk level between that of equities and traditional bond investments.

我认为在机构投资中，对冲策略有助于匹配负债、平滑收益波动、降低相关性，这些都很重要。

And I think they're useful in an institutional setting to help match liabilities, to help smooth out return streams, to reduce correlation, all of those things.

如果一个理想的投资组合里有50种资产，彼此相关性为零，但都有正的预期回报，那简直就是一台稳定持续赚钱的机器，无论市场环境怎么变都能表现稳健。

Because in a perfect portfolio, if you had 50 things that had a correlation of zero to each other, but all had positive expected returns, you would create just a money machine that's very consistent and stable across all different types of environments.

这确实是一种全天候的稳定型工具，和传统资产的相关性很低。

And certainly that's an all weather stable vehicle that's going to have low correlation to traditional assets.

但并不是所有人都能承受纯粹的股票风险，因为股市有时会出现20%到40%的回撤，而且你根本不知道这种下跌会持续多久。

And again, not everyone can just take pure equity risk because at times in the equity markets, there's going to be drawdowns between 2040%, you don't know how long they're going to last.

你必须确保自己的目标能实现，不管是机构层面还是个人层面。

And you need to make sure that your mission is accomplished you know, from an institutional perspective or even from a personal perspective.

是的。

Yeah.

那我们来聊聊市场环境吧。

Well, let's talk about the weather.

目前对全天候投资者来说，市场状况怎么样？

What is the weather like right now in the market for for an all weather investor?

市场在某些板块暴涨的时候，做空就特别难了。

The the weather, it makes it difficult on the short side when you have markets that have melted up in some cases.

AI、硬件、光学这些领域都在疯狂涌动。

And you have this push into AI, you have push into hardware, you've pushed into optics, things like that.

这种势头一点都没停过。

And it's just unrelenting.

不过，除了这些靠动量驱动的板块，其他地方还是有不少选股的机会。

The flip side of that is outside of some of those areas that are more momentum based, there's still opportunities for stock selection.

你看主要市场的个股平均回报，跟指数一比，大部分股票都大幅跑输大盘。

So when you look at the average return of a stock in major markets, compared to an index return, and the average stock has underperformed, massively.

如果你把表现好的和表现差的股票做成一个多空组合，就能获得比较稳定的收益。

So if you put together a long short portfolio between the performers and the underperformers, it's you know, you have the opportunity to produce a stable return stream.

这其实就是现在发生的情况。

So that's really what's happened.

一些指数里出现了严重分化，少数几只股票拉高了整个回报。

You've had a big bifurcation, in some of the indices, and a few stocks driving, the returns massively.

但除此之外，市场整体更加均衡，这就带来了很好的投资机会。

But outside of that, it's been a much more balanced market and that creates a very good opportunity set.

从宏观层面看，新一届政府上台，尤其是美国，正在全球多个领域调整政策——无论是关税、国防，还是当前与伊朗的冲突，以及其他各种动态，都为宏观交易创造了绝佳的环境，因为市场每天都在波动。

Within the macro space, having the new administration come in, particularly in The US, changing policies globally in a number of different areas, whether it was tariffs, whether it's defense, whether it's the conflict with Iran that's going on now, other things that are happening, it's provided a very fertile backdrop for more macro type of trading because things are trading every day.

有时候，只要官员说一句话，市场就会立刻反应。

They could trade with one comment from an official.

过去几周，市场一直在反复猜测：我们会不会达成协议？协议会不会敲定？

We've seen over the past couple of weeks back and forth, are we going to get an agreement, knock on an agreement?

昨晚刚公布了一些条款细节。

Some of the terms that were just released last night.

这就又打开了新的交易机会。

So that creates other trading opportunities.

最后，在更具机会导向的投资领域，并购活动正在重新活跃起来。

And then finally, within the more, opportunistic investment space, you have this resurgence of M and A activity.

股权融资活动也出现了明显回升。

You have this resurgence of equity capital market activity.

你看上周SpaceX的融资，再往前一周谷歌的融资，都是创纪录的发行规模，这些资金得被市场消化掉。

So when you see SpaceX, the offering that happened last week, when you look at, Google's offering the week before, these are record issuances, and they need to be absorbed, into the market.

而且，这些发行在某些地方造成了市场波动。

And, again, they create dislocations in some places.

有些人为了买这些新券，不得不卖出其他资产。

Some people have to sell things in order to buy those.

这两只股票从发行以来，价格都涨了不少。

Both of these have gone up in value since they were issued.

所以，股权融资的活跃也带来了不少投资机会。

So this equity capital market activity is also presenting some opportunities.

目前的整体环境很不错啊，Max。

So the backdrop is pretty good right now, Max.

对。

Yeah.

我想听听你对股权发行的看法。

And I'm interested in your view on equity issuance.

你知道，我们可能不至于把上一轮称为周期，但2021年确实有一大批新公司涌入市场，现在回头看就清楚了。

You know, I don't know if we'd go so far as to call it last cycle, but certainly 2021, we got a slew of new companies on the market with the benefit of hindsight.

可以说，其中很多公司质量一般，还没实现盈利。

We can say many of them were relatively low quality companies, not profitable.

当然，像SpaceX这样的公司我们提到的这些，也没盈利，但跟上次牛市时涌进市场的那些公司比，完全是两码事。

Look, some of the companies, SpaceX in particular, that we're talking about are not profitable, but they're very different in terms of what we saw coming to market the last time these types of bull market spirits were around.

所以我特别想听听你怎么看，你说的谷歌和SpaceX纷纷进入市场这件事。

And so I'm really interested in how you're thinking about, as you said, Google tapping the market, SpaceX tapping the market.

现在Anthropic和OpenAI的保密S1文件都已经出来了。

We've got confidential S1s from Anthropic and OpenAI now.

它们会不会效仿SpaceX的成功赶紧上市，现在还不好说。

Whether they're going to race after seeing the success of a SpaceX IPO still remains to be seen.

但可以肯定的是，它们已经在考虑登陆资本市场了。

But certainly they're thinking about coming to market.

这对你来说意味着什么？你觉得现在这次融资潮和以前的周期有什么不同？

What does that signal to you, and and how do you think about the differences between the issuance we're seeing now versus prior cycles?

我觉得回到2020到2021年疫情之后，那会儿更多是SPAC的热潮。

I think when you go back to 2020, 2021 after COVID, it was much more of a SPAC cycle.

当时主要是把一些科技领域的私营公司通过这种方式推上市。

So you were taking private companies in different areas mainly of technology.

当然也有少数SPAC不是在这个范畴里的。

There are a few SPACs that were done outside of that.

这些公司都没赚钱。

They weren't profitable.

规模也小。

They weren't scaled.

有些甚至根本没有收入，但就是急需融资。

Some of them really didn't have revenue, but needed to raise capital.

而SPAC正好提供了一种高效的融资途径。

And SPACs were an efficient way to do it.

但说实话，很多SPAC最后都没搞成，效果并不好。

I think the SPACs in a lot of cases did not work out, particularly well.

那里确实也有几个成功的案例。

There have been a few success stories there.

如今一些公司上市，和以前不同的是，它们已经有收入了。

The the difference with some of the companies coming public today, is that they do have revenue.

它们可能还没盈利，但确实有收入，而且追求的是更大的增长。

They may not be profitable, but they do have revenue, and they are going for much more growth.

它们所处的领域都是新兴的、正在发展的。

They're in newer areas that are developing.

比如Anthropic、OpenAI这样的公司。

So Anthropic and OpenAI and groups like that.

这些公司虽然已经存在一段时间了，但时间并不算长。

These companies have been around, but they haven't been around all that long.

但它们已经在产生收入了。

But they are generating revenue.

人们对这些公司未来的发展前景充满期待。

People are excited about the path forward for these companies.

我敢说不是每个人都能成功，也不是每家公司都能配得上现在的估值或巨额资本支出。

I'm sure not everyone is going be a winner and not everyone will justify probably these valuations or the CapEx that's happening.

但眼下，资本市场对这类想法是敞开的。

But right now, the capital markets are open for these types of ideas.

资金不仅在这里涌动，在世界其他地方也在流动。

Money is flowing not only here, but, in other parts of the world as well.

现在真是个好时机。

And it's a very good time.

如果你有个需要资金的大点子，现在可能是历史上最好的融资时机。

If you have a big idea that needs capital, it's probably been a better time never been a better time to go get that capital.

现在要筹到一亿甚至十亿美元，可能比筹一千万还容易。

It might be easier now to go get a 100,000,000 or a billion than it is to go get 10,000,000 for a project.

因为现在资金太充裕了，投资人觉得一千万的项目太小，不值得花时间去评估这种风险。

To the point that people have so much that they're trying to put to work, a $10,000,000 project just doesn't move the needle for the time it's gonna take to underwrite that that sort of risk.

没错。

Yeah.

你还是会好奇，这些资金到底从哪儿来，Max，又都生成了些什么。

Again, you wonder where all the capital comes from, Max, and what's being generated.

我们当然可以聊聊这个。

We can certainly talk about that.

但资产价格本身，随着这些年上涨，确实有更多资金等着出手。

But certainly the asset prices themselves, as they've appreciated over time, know, there's just been more capital to deploy.

关于这些新公司，我还想说一点，它们可不是陪跑的。

So the other thing I would say about these these new companies, they're not the also rans.

对吧？

Right?

上一轮的时候，满大街都是‘我们是下一个特斯拉’这种说法。

The last time around, you had a lot of, we're the next Tesla.

那时候有五家电动车公司。

You know, there were five electric vehicle companies.

而这些，才是真正的行业领军者。

These are the leaders in the space.

我的意思是，这会不会让你对这次股权融资的感觉不一样？它们不仅是这个领域的领军者，而且我们知道这笔钱会用在什么地方。

I mean, does that change the feeling that that you have about this equity issuance that not only are they the they the leaders in the space, but also that the money is going towards something that we know what it's going towards.

比如GameStop，股价涨了，就能在市场发新股，拿到现金，公司状况就变好了。

If you take, say, like a GameStop, which the stock goes up, they're able to issue shares on the market, they have cash, it puts the company in a better position.

但我们其实并不清楚，这些钱最终会用到哪里去。

But we don't actually really know what that money is eventually going to go to.

谷歌说，我们要建更多的数据中心。

Google is saying, we're investing in more data centers.

这才是真正的押注。

This is the bet.

我们得有钱才能干这事。

We need money to do that.

很多其他公司也是同样的情况。

The same thing with a lot of these other companies.

这笔钱是投向具体项目，而不是公司单纯利用股价短期上涨来套利。

The money is going towards projects versus just a company taking advantage of a short term pop in the stock price.

知道钱会用在什么地方，而且认同这个趋势，这会让你对这次融资更有信心吗？

To what extent does knowing where the money is going and sort of believing in the trend make you feel more comfortable about the issuance?

对。

Yeah.

我觉得像GameStop那样，在股价暴涨时发股票，更多是一种融资行为。

I think something like a GameStop, when they issued stock when the share price spiked up, is more of a financing activity.

你拿到现金后，应该把它记在资产负债表上，然后找合适的用途。

You you want to take that cash put on the balance sheet and find uses for it.

就像你刚才说的，Max，我同意这些公司都有资本支出计划，需要资金支持，它们也在努力优化资产负债表和融资成本来实现这些目标。

Like you said, Max, I agree these companies have CapEx plans that they need to fund that are trying to optimize their own balance sheets and their own financing costs to go do so.

所以它们打算怎么用这笔钱，目标非常明确。

So it's much clearer what they are trying to achieve with the capital.

而市场的职责，就是判断这些项目能不能带来良好的资本回报。

Now what the market's job is is to figure out whether these projects will have a good return on that, on the capital.

对这些公司来说，资本配置变得至关重要。

Capital allocation for these companies becomes absolutely critical.

但确实，现在就像是在这些领域里展开一场军备竞赛，必须争当领头羊。

But, yeah, it definitely seems like it's kind of an arms race to make sure you're a leader in these spaces.

而眼下，要做好这些事需要巨额资金。

And right now you need a massive amount of capital to do that.

现在也有很多其他公司正在研发和投入，希望能推动这些关键领域的发展。

Now, are a lot of other companies that are being developed and spending time that hopefully improve what needs to be done.

数据中心自身的效率、大语言模型的训练方式、训练成本、令牌处理成本，这些方面都在不断优化。

There's the efficiencies of the data centers themselves or how large language models are trained and the training costs for those and the training costs for tokens, all those things are all being worked on.

但我认为，就连这些技术的优化，现在也才刚刚起步。

But I think it's very much just the beginning of that cycle of even the optimization of some of these things.

要预测谁最终能胜出确实很难，但如果你需要大规模的资源才能入场，那目前这些公司无疑走在最前面，已经占据了明显优势。

You know, it's hard to predict exactly who will be the the winners, but if you need lots of scale, to be put in the game, you know, again, these companies right now are at the forefront of being able to do that and certainly have a, a head start.

Lighthouse 在将人工智能融入投资流程以及后台运营方面，进展到什么程度了？

Where is Lighthouse in its adoption and optimization of AI into the investment process as well as as more of the back office operations?

Anthropic 推出金融云时提到，金融行业是仅次于高科技公司的第二大快速采纳者。

Anthropic, when they launched their cloud for finance, they said that the financial industry is the number two fastest fastest adopter behind high-tech firms.

是的

Yeah.

我觉得在我们业务的每个职能领域，我们都在不断寻找方法，利用现有工具来提升运营效率。

I think that in in each functional area of our, you know, of our business, we continue to try and find ways to use the tools that have been built and continue to pick up operational efficiencies.

在金融领域，有一点很重要，那就是人和机器必须配合使用。

One of the things within financial space is also you do want humans with these machines.

你处理的是真金白银。

You're talking about real money.

还伴随着实实在在的合规问题。

You're talking about real compliance issues that go along with that.

也需要用到常识。

You're talking about common sense that needs to be used as well.

并不是说机器不能处理股票交易对账或者其他事情。

And not that machines can't reconcile equity trading and do other things.

但涉及到资金流动时，必须设置相应的管控机制。

But when you're looking at money movement, there has to be certain controls put in place.

我认为这些措施都能加快我们的流程，提升生产力和效率。

And all of these things, I think, will speed up our processes and make us more productive and more efficient.

但我并不相信人类会完全被取代。

But I am not a believer that all human beings go away.

人类会转向更高价值的工作，比如过去一个人要看十个账户，现在能同样高效地处理二十个。

I think the human beings will be put into, higher use cases, that maybe had someone who would look at, 10 different accounts now could look at 20 different accounts, as efficiently as before.

但人类依然不可或缺。

But there is still going to be a need for humans.

这些工具正在提升我们的生产力。

But these tools, are increasing productivity.

同时也在激发创造力。

They're also increasing creativity.

你可以提出更多不同类型的问题。

So you can ask lots of different questions.

而且能更快地提问，也能更快得到反馈。

You can ask those questions quicker or get feedback quicker.

从纯粹的投资角度来看，你最需要关注的还是数据的质量和构成，确保你所使用的、以及输入到这些工具里的数据都是准确的。

And the one thing, again, you really have to look at from a pure investing perspective is just the data quality mix and make sure that what you're looking at and the data that's being input in any of these tools is accurate.

我觉得数据质量仍然是个大问题。

And I would say that data quality is still a big issue.

这对通才和专才分别有什么影响呢？

How is it affecting the generalist versus the specialist?

你觉得影响更大的是通才，让他们能比以前更深地切入领域？

Would you say that the impact is greater and that the generalist is able to go deeper than they were before?

还是说专才反而挖得更深了，而行业覆盖、理解深度和专业能力的要求，正被你和竞争对手不断推高？

Or is it that the specialist is going even deeper and the expectations for coverage and understanding and expertise, the bar is just going higher and higher with you and your competitors?

我依然相信专才模式更有效。

I still believe in the specialist model.

长期深耕某个行业或一组股票的专才，相比通才确实更有优势。

And I think having a specialist that studied a particular industry or a particular set of stocks for a long period of time has an advantage over the generalist.

通才当然能很快上手某个领域，但他们可能抓不住行业的那些细微差别。

The generalist can certainly get up to speed very quickly in a certain area, but they may not know all the nuances of the industry.

他们可能不知道即将出台的一些监管变化。

They may not know of some regulatory changes that are coming.

他们也可能不了解某家公司或某个产品的具体供应链问题。

They may not know of particular supply chain issues with a certain company or a certain product.

所以我认为，这些工具对高度专业的人士依然很有帮助。

So I think that these tools will continue to help someone who is very specialized.

它们能帮专家快速掌握全局信息。

They can help the specialist get a broad view very quickly.

然后，他们可以凭借自己的专业知识，深入挖掘，远超一般投资者能想到的方向，马克斯。

And then again, they can use their knowledge, to dig in a lot deeper, than a generalist would really know where to go, Max.

我觉得专家能利用这些工具，精准聚焦那些最可能影响特定股价的关键因素。

So I think that specialists can use these tools and really hone in on on what are the most important things that might drive a a particular flat price.

看着市场消化AI带来的各种变化，真的很有意思。

It's been really interesting watching markets digest everything that's happening with AI.

其中一个更微妙的趋势是，人们开始意识到，海外市场，尤其是新兴市场，表现正在超越美国。

And one of the more nuanced trends that I think people are starting to understand is ex US outperformance, in particularly emerging markets.

新兴市场和海外其他地区在关税风波后开始表现得更好。

EM and really ex US started to outperform post tariff tantrum.

当时有种说法，说是全球其他地方正在把资本撤回本国，抛售美元。

There were narratives that, oh, this is the rest of the world repatriating capital, dumping the dollar.

但如果你看实际的资金流向，根本不是这么回事。

If you look at the actual investment flows, that's that's not really the story.

再往深处看，像台湾、韩国这些对人工智能资本支出高度依赖的国家，其实走在了最前面。

And then and then if you look even further under the hood, you know, you have countries like Taiwan, Korea with incredible exposure to the AI CapEx build out that are really leading the way.

看起来，人工智能的影响无处不在。

It does seem like it's AI all the way down.

当你审视这些不同趋势的时候，其实都是如此。

When you look at all of these different themes, is.

所以我很好奇，你是怎么看待人工智能这一趋势，不仅渗透到美国的高科技企业，还蔓延到全球各地的？

And so I'm interested in how you're thinking about the way that this AI trade seems to be infusing itself into not just these high-tech US firms, but all over the world.

如果可以的话，我想把这个观点放在两个特定市场上来分析。

If I can, I'd like to overlay that on top of two markets in particular.

一个是日本，一个是韩国。

One is Japan and one is Korea.

我来简单梳理一下，因为这两个市场最近发生了两件特别值得关注的事，跟AI趋势叠加起来，很有意思。

Just go through because I think there's two things that have happened in these markets in particular, that that might be interesting to explore a little bit more on top of the AI, on top of the AI that's happened.

这两个市场都经历了重大的监管变革，正是这些变化为现在的情况铺平了道路。

But in both markets, there have been big regulatory changes, that have occurred that I think have set this up, to to kind of happen the way way it has.

先说日本，2021年6月，公司治理准则进行了重大修订。

But if you look at Japan first, so in June 2021, yeah, the corporate governance code, was effectively revised.

从那以后，我开始更关注净资产收益率、资本配置这些指标。

So I started to care more about things like, return on equity, capital allocation, etcetera.

到了2023年3月，这个趋势明显加速了。

On March 2023, that accelerated.

东京证券交易所正式推出了这些新规。

So you have the Tokyo Stock Exchange, really put forward those rules.

企业们开始认真采纳，认真审视这些要求。

Companies start to adopt them, look at them.

所有这些变化都开始显现了。

All of those things start to happen.

这就大大提升了股东回报和资本配置等各方面的影响。

So you have this bigger impact on shareholder returns, capital allocation, all of those things.

2024年，日本还推出了新的NISA政策。

In 2024 in Japan, also the new NISA guidelines were released.

NISA账户，你可以把它想象成美国的401(k)这种税收优惠的储蓄账户。

So NISA account, think of it in The US as a four zero one, a tax advantaged savings account.

看到这些变化后，日本的家庭开始把钱从日本邮政银行这类零利息的存款里拿出来，转投股市。

When you look at that, that started to encourage households in Japan to start to take money out of deposits, like a Japan Post Bank that were earning zero and start to put them in the in the stock market.

2023年，NISA账户的数量大约是1400万个。

If you look at the NISA accounts, they were about 14,000,000 in 2023.

现在已增长到2800万个。

They're now 28,000,000.

举个例子，我们一位在日本的同事，他岳父母是种水稻的农民。

So one anecdote of that is one of our colleagues in Japan, his in laws are rice farmers.

在这些新规定出台之前，他们从来没投资过证券市场。

Prior to these new regulations, they had never invested in securities, in the securities market.

让他们改变态度的，主要是两个原因。

What changed their attitude towards doing it was really two things.

第一，NISA账户的改革。

One, the NISA account reforms.

第二，三十年来，人们第一次意识到：等等，通货膨胀真的来了。

And then two, for the first time in thirty years, you had people realize that, hold on, there is inflation.

如果我把钱放在日本邮政银行里赚零利息，实际收益其实是负的。

If I leave my money sitting in a Japan Post account at zero, I'm actually negative real returns.

这促使更多散户把钱投入市场。

And that started to encourage more retail investors to put money into the markets.

到了2025年4月，一些日本公司也开始要求用英文披露财务报告。

And so also April 2025, certain Japanese companies were starting to require to disclose their accounts in English as well.

这样一来，美国投资者对这些公司的兴趣也扩大了。

So you're broadening this appeal to investor base in The US.

你们在说，零售投资者，我们希望你们把资金从日本投到这里来。

You're saying retail investors, we want your capital here from Japan.

你们也在对那些企业说，你们得比过去做得更好，重视股东回报和净资产收益率这些事。

You're saying to the corporates, you need to act better than you have in the past and focus on shareholder returns and return on equity, all of those sorts of things.

你们还告诉日本的企业界，得把一些报告翻译成英文，让更多人有机会参与投资。

And you're telling the Japanese corporate community, you need to publish some of these statements, in English so that a broader set of people, has the opportunity to invest in it.

如果看看2021年1月这些改革刚开始时，日经指数大约是28000点。

If you look at those changes starting in January of of twenty twenty one, the Nikkei was around 28,000.

现在它已经涨到了69000点。

It's now at 69,000.

再看标普500，那时候是4200点。

You look at the S and P, it was 4,200.

现在标普500大约是7500点。

The S and P now about 7,500.

总的来说，自从这些改革实施以来，日经指数的年均表现比标普500高出大约8%。

The bottom line, since those changes were enacted, is that the Nikkei has outperformed the S and P 500 by about 8% per year.

但马克斯，回到你刚才说的，如果看那段时间日经指数里平均一只股票，年均涨幅大约是9%。

But Max, going back to your point, if you look at the average stock in the Nikkei over that time period, it's up about 9% a year.

那是什么造成了这个差异呢？

So what's made that difference?

是人工智能概念股。

It's the AI stocks.

真正推动日经指数跑赢大盘的，是日本国内的人工智能产业链。

So it's the AI supply chain, within Japan that's really driven the outperformance of that index, compared to that.

不过，日本当时正在发生的那些改革，也加速了这一趋势。

But you had also the background of the changes going on in Japan that I think accelerated this, this trend.

再来看韩国，他们也是大受益者，但情况稍有不同——2024年1月，他们推出了效仿日本的企业价值提升计划。

If we switch over to Korea, which has been a huge beneficiary, a little bit different, January 2024, they have their corporate value up program modeled after, Japan.

这项政策实际是在2月开始实施的。

It was technically implemented in February.

情况也差不多。

Same thing.

优化资本配置，提升股东回报，改善市净率偏低的公司表现，这些都起到了作用。

Make, capital allocation decisions, improve shareholder returns, address low price to book companies, all of those things.

2025年，韩国出台了新的监管规定，董事会首次被要求必须全面考虑所有股东的利益。

2025, you had a new regulatory, pronouncement in Korea where the board of directors for the first time really had to look at all shareholders.

所以我得把小股东的权利纳入考量。

So I had to take into account minority shareholder rights.

到2026年5月，韩国推出了一项政策，允许本国投资者将资本汇回，并在2026年5月前完全免除资本利得税。

May 2026, you have a program that allows Korean investors to repatriate capital, a 100% relief on capital gains taxes through May 2026.

之后这个优惠会逐步递减。

It scales down from there.

现在，杠杆型ETF交易又兴起，但主要集中在两只股票上。

And then, now you also have this rise of, kind of levered ETF trading really only in two stocks.

综合来看，这些监管改革推动散户参与、敦促企业改善治理、吸引外资，自2024年1月以来，COSP指数上涨了约234%，而标普500只涨了63%。其中，三星和SK海力士这两只股票就贡献了COSP涨幅的六成。

So if we look at that, the bottom line of the COSP, so again, these regulatory changes encouraging retail investors, telling corporates to act better, attracting foreign capital, all of those things, COSP since January 2024, up about 234%, S and P up about 63%, two stocks that came up for 60% of the COSP and that's, you know, Samsung and SK Hynix.

同期，COSP中普通股票的平均涨幅在50%到80%之间，这已经是非常惊人的表现了。

The average COSP stock over that time period up about, 50 to 80%, which is still huge.

但这些变化中，有些是人工智能特有的，有些则是监管层面带来的影响。

But again, some of this is AI specific and then some of it is regulatory specific of what's happening.

那在这些改革之前，日本或韩国的公司有哪些行为是市场特别不买账的呢？

So what is an example of the type of behavior you would see from a corporation in Japan or Korea that the market was really punishing them for before these reforms?

日本的企业以前根本不是为了股东利益在运营。

The companies in Japan were not necessarily being run for the benefit of the shareholders.

它们更多是为了维持稳定、让管理层长期留任，有时候甚至出于税务考虑，资产估值也一直不到位，诸如此类的问题。

Were being run for either sustainability, keep management in its place, in some cases, tax reasons, not valuing assets properly, all of those things.

由于东京证券交易所的上市要求，加上政府希望吸引散户参与，这些因素共同推动了企业行为的彻底转变。

So the behavior completely changed, because of the listing requirements of Tokyo Stock Exchange, the government wanting to get retail participation in, all of these things, really started to to take shape.

如果你看看如今东京证券交易所的交易量，跟三四年前相比，已经增长了五倍左右。

And if you look at the amount of volume being traded on the Tokyo Stock Exchange today compared to even three or four years ago, it's about five x.

所以参与的人多了。

So the participation is greater.

这就让市场流动性更强了，参与度也更高了。

So it's created more liquidity in the in the market, more participation.

希望情况能更好一些，你自然会期待这能带来更有效的价格发现，不过也说不定，马克斯。

Hopefully, some better, you you would hope this would lead to some better price discovery, maybe not, Max.

日本一些小市值公司的股票，根本没人做研究分析，诸如此类的问题还有很多。

Some of the smaller cap names in Japan really aren't covered, from a research perspective, all of those things.

但关键是要让企业行为真正转向以股东回报为中心。

But you really change the behavior to be focused, more on, shareholder returns.

日本和韩国都存在交叉持股，但主要是在日本，现在这些持股正在逐步解除。

Also the cross shareholdings in Japan, both in Japan and in Korea, but mainly in Japan are starting to be unwound.

这正在推动日本进入一轮并购潮。

And that's leading to an M and A cycle in Japan.

你正在打破一个在日本延续了大约三十年的体系，而过去五年来的成果，对股东来说是非常可观的。

So you're unwinding a system that had really been put in place over a period of about thirty years in Japan, and the results over the past five years have been rewarding to shareholders.

你提到的交叉持股，是指一家公司持有另一家上市公司的股份，对吧？

And when you say the cross holdings, that would be one company owns shares and then another publicly traded company.

如果把这些都加起来，这些资产的实际价值到底有多少？

And if you add it all up and you say, what is in that asset value?

你知道的，那些熟悉的人会说，控股公司被折价了。

You know, discounted holdcos for those familiar, essentially.

没错。

Correct.

控股公司被折价了，拆分之后，你就能看到每个部分单独交易的情况。

Discounted holdcos, and you start to break those up and see where each of these parts trades on their own.

股东可以决定：我想投资这家电气制造商的这一块业务，但不想碰它那些老旧的部门。

Shareholders can decide, well, I want to invest in this part of the, you know, electrical manufacturer, but I don't want this, other old part of the electrical manufacturing conglomerate.

这种选择，加上更灵活的资本配置，让管理层能更主动地应对，我觉得这对改善现状很有帮助。

Those choices, those capital allocation, allowing management to be a little bit more dynamic, I think has helped those situations.

不过，Max，当我们谈到赢家通吃的时候，情况就有点不一样了。

It's a little bit different, Max, when we're talking about winner take all.

公司得做大做强才能生存，但我觉得控股公司结构在日本并不太管用。

The companies need to get bigger to survive, but I don't think the holdco structure, was working that well within Japan.

拆分之后，我觉得让这些公司能更自由地走自己的路，设定不同的目标和增长节奏，诸如此类。

And breaking it up, I think, is freeing up some of, the companies to pursue their own paths, different objectives, growth rates, all of those things.

美国的流通股数量在减少，而中国、日本、韩国这些地方的上市公司股票数量却在增加。

So while The US share count was shrinking, the number of shares in China, Japan, Korea, the listings is increasing.

挺有意思的是，亚洲这边股票供应越来越多，美国这边反而少了。

So it's interesting to see you know, more supply, you know, over in Asia and less supply, in The U.

至少在公开上市的公司数量上是这样。

S, at least of company names that are publicly traded.

看到股东价值最大化在亚洲也开始流行起来，挺有意思的。

It's interesting to see maximizing shareholder value take stake in Asia.

在美国，这股风气已经主导企业治理很久了，甚至一度连股票回购都被当成坏东西。

I mean, in The US, obviously it's been it has been the dominant force in corporate governance for a long time, even to the point that we had a brief period where buybacks were sort of the enemy.

波音的飞机接连出事，就是个例子。

You had planes falling out of the sky from Boeing.

通用电气这种公司，有人说如果当初多投点钱搞研发，少盯着短期股东回报，结果可能会更好。

GE, people have said perhaps could have could have done more reinvestment and and less focus on short term maximization of shareholder value.

你觉得怎样的平衡才算合适？亚洲市场能找得到这个平衡点吗？

And so what do you think the right balance is, and do you think they're going to find that in Asian markets?

我觉得现在的平衡性比以前好太多了。

I think it's much more balanced today than what it was.

以前，这两个市场的中小股东权益也更受重视。

Previously, I think minority shareholder rights are much more respected in both of those markets as well.

所以我觉得确实需要重新调整一下。

So I think they needed to be rebalanced.

你看到的是这些市场估值的重估、交易量的上升，还有所有你希望市场具备的要素。

And I think what you've seen is a rerating in those markets, more trading, all of those things that you kind of want in markets.

你希望有流动性，有价格发现，有良好的公司治理，这些都很重要。

You want liquidity, you want price discovery, you want good corporate governance, all of those things.

这些方面现在都被释放出来了。

So those have been unleashed.

在美国，市场显然更自由一些。

In The US, it's definitely been, more of a freer market.

就像我说的，有时候会失衡，而任何一家管理公司最难的事，就是资本配置，以及决定资本投入的时间跨度。

Like I said, sometimes it becomes a little bit unbalanced and that's a really tough job of any management company is capital allocation and what's the timeframe that you're going to allocate that capital over.

如果你还在做固话业务，你愿意往这个业务里再投多少资本？

So if you're in the landline telephone business, how much capital do you wanna reinvest in that business?

这生意是必需的，但算得上是增长型业务吗？

It's it's a necessary business, but is it a growth business?

大概率不是。

You know, probably not.

这跟前沿科技领域，比如开发新的大语言模型之类的，完全是两种思路。

So different decisions there than in the frontier technology, producing new LLMs or things like that.

我觉得资本配置的决策完全不同，处在不同生命周期的公司，得各自评估清楚。

I think the capital allocations decisions are completely different and companies at different life cycles need to evaluate that.

这正是管理层的职责，董事会也得盯着，确保这事办得妥当。

But that's the role of management and it's also the role of the board of directors to make sure that that's occurring.

有些公司能做得特别好，比如ThrivelMax，但也有不少会搞砸，最终失败。

Some companies are gonna do it really well in ThriveMax and others are not gonna do it well and are gonna fail.

但整体上，得采取更平衡的做法。

But it needs to be a more balanced approach.

在美国，由于股票期权的授予方式以及其短期性质，可能有点失衡了。

In The US, because of some of the stock options and how they're granted and the short term nature of them, maybe it got a little bit lopsided.

当然，这个问题是可以调整的，但说到底，这始终是个平衡的问题。

You know, certainly that can be corrected, but, but, yeah, it's a balancing act all the time.

我们之前聊过日本和韩国的指数回报。

Now we talked about the index level returns in in Japan, in Korea.

但正如你之前所说，要采取更中立的态度。

But as you said before, take a much more neutral approach.

所以，对于那些专注于在有顺风环境的市场中寻找阿尔法的投资者来说，这些机会是什么样的呢？

So as investors that are focusing more on trying to find alpha in markets that have these tailwinds, they're going up, what do the alpha opportunities look like?

我的意思是，你之前提到过不同市场和个股回报之间的差异。

I mean, you did allude to the dispersion in returns between the markets and the average stock.

这显然支持了多空策略获取阿尔法的想法。

Clearly, that lends itself to the idea of long short alpha.

对。

Yeah.

每个市场里总是有赢有输。

So there there is always winners and losers in in every market.

就算看一只股票一年内的表现，波动也可能达到百分之三十。

And if you look at even the range of an individual stock on a yearly basis, it could be 30%.

所以在一年中的某个时候，它的价格可能偏高。

So at one point in the year, it could be fairly expensive.

而在另一段时间，它的价格又可能很合理。

Another point in the year, it could be reasonably priced.

如果你关注这些证券，尤其是同一行业内的股票对比——比如你是医疗行业的专家，观察这些股票彼此之间的定价关系，那么在一年或一个周期内的某些时点，总会有股票被低估或高估，相对于其他股票而言。

If if you were looking at these securities and particularly relative to other securities in the same sector, so you are a health care expert and you're looking at how, these stocks trade relative to each other, there are going to be points in time within within a year or within a cycle where something is undervalued or overvalued relative to something else.

机会就在这里。

That's where the opportunity is.

如果所有股票都像指数一样同步波动，那确实会非常困难，但这种情况根本不会发生。

So if suddenly every stock traded like the index mix, it's really, really difficult, but that never happens.

几乎从来没见过这样的情况。

It's very, very rare that you have that.