Why The 30-Year Treasury Lost Its Biggest Buyers | David Busch on Why High Yields Are Attractive Right Now

今天，我请到了Trajan Wealth的首席投资官大卫·布希。

Today, I'm joined by David Busch, chief investment officer of Trajan Wealth.

大卫，欢迎来到《货币事务》节目。

David, welcome to Monetary Matters.

杰克，非常感谢你邀请我。

Jack, thank you so much for having me.

能和你一起参加节目，我真的很高兴。

It's it's truly a pleasure to join you.

就像我们在邮件里沟通的那样，不仅我是你的粉丝，我的分析师团队也都是你播客的粉丝。

And as I said in our communication back and forth via email, not only am I a fan, but also my team of analysts are fans of your podcast as well.

所以这对我来说真的是一次难得的享受。

So this is truly a treat for me.

大卫，我真的很感激，非常感谢。

I really appreciate that very much, David.

过去六个月里，十年期国债收益率只朝一个方向走，那就是上涨。

The ten year yield has gone only one direction over the past six months up.

所以十年期国债收益率上升了大约60个基点，三十年期国债收益率也大幅上升。

So the ten years up about 60 basis points, thirty year yield up a tremendous amount as well.

我想知道，你知道，政府债券的大规模抛售以及政府收益率的上升，这到底是怎么回事。

I wanna know just this huge sell off in, you know, government bond and and rising government yields.

我想听听你对这件事的看法。

I wanna know what you what you think of it.

你知道，你的展望是什么？

You know, what's what's your outlook?

接下来它们会往哪里走？

Where are they headed next?

但首先，大卫，我的问题是，这重要吗？

But first, David, my question is, does it matter?

收益率上升对经济重要吗？

Do rising yields matter for the economy?

它们对股市重要吗？

Do they matter for the stock market?

到什么水平？

At what level?

实际上，导致利率上升的因素是多方面的。

Really what's causing rates to rise is a combination of factors.

首先，我们有40万亿美元的未偿还美国国债。

One, we have $40,000,000,000,000 in outstanding U.

美国

S.

国债，而且这个数字在过去十五到二十年里一直在增长。

Treasury debt, and that has grown over the last fifteen-twenty years.

但最近，它加速增长了。

But more recently, it's ramped up.

所以供应量更大了。

So we have greater supply.

同时，通胀压力也在上升。

We also have a combination of rising inflationary pressures.

而这主要是由两个关键事件引起的。

And that's been caused by really two critical events.

一个就是与伊朗的冲突，随后油价和天然气价格上涨，还有我们和不同国家之间的关税贸易战。

One is the conflict with Iran and subsequent rise in oil and gas prices, and the tarifftrade wars that we've had with different countries.

最近来说，就是加拿大。

I mean, most recently, it's been Canada.

关税一开始会推高通胀，因为它们提高了从这些国家进口商品的价格，而能源价格显然会波及整个经济。

So tariffs are initially inflationary because they increase the price of goods imported from these different countries, and energy obviously flows through the whole economy.

我知道美联储关注的是核心PCE，这个核心指标排除了食品和能源价格。

And I recognize that the Federal Reserve focuses on core PCE, which core excludes food and energy prices.

但作为消费者，我们去超市购物、买新设备或电子产品，或者去加油站加油的时候，都能感受到这些价格变化。

But as a consumer, we feel it when we go to the grocery store, when we go to buy, you know, new equipment or devices, or if we are just filling up our gas tanks at the at the gas station.

所以通胀确实在上升，真的是这些因素共同作用的结果。

So it it is elevated and it's it's really a combination of those factors.

最后我想指出的是最近企业债券的发行，这主要是为了筹集资金用于AI基础设施的资本支出，但它产生了一种挤出效应，也就是说投资者现在有了选择，可以买国债，也可以买这些新发行的投资级企业债。

The last thing that I'll point out is the recent issuance of corporate debt, and this has really been, you know, in an effort to raise funding for all the AI infrastructure capital expenditures, but it acts as kind of a crowding out effect, meaning that investors now have a choice, you know, to buy treasuries or to buy, you know, these newly issued IG corporates.

所以这里也有一个权衡。

So so there's there's also a trade off there.

总的来说，这就是利率仍然居高不下的原因。

So overall, those are the causes of why rates are still elevated.

利率达到什么水平才会开始对股市和经济构成问题？

At what level do they begin to become a problem for stocks and for the economy?

利率几乎渗透到我们使用的每一个估值计算中。

Rates are embedded in almost every valuation calculation that that we use.

首先，国债收益率较高，现在成了股票的一个替代选择，也就是说，投资者可以利用国债和其他投资级公司债作为投资组合中的分散工具。

So one, treasuries, you know, with higher yields are now an alternative to equities, meaning that investors can use treasuries and other investment grade corporates as a diversifying mechanic in their portfolios.

所以现在，由于收益率上升，固定收益投资有了更强的理由。

So there is now, you know, a stronger case to use fixed income because of the rising yields.

但这也带来一个趋势，因为市面上每个股票估值模型都是用无风险利率将未来现金流折现到今天。

But it also has a tendency because every equity valuation model that's out there discounts future cash flows back to today using the risk free rates.

所以我们看到的是，股权风险溢价可能开始压缩，这不过是利率上升和估值时使用的折现方法的结果。

So what we're seeing is equity risk premiums could start to compress and that's just a function of higher rates and the discounting technique that's used to value those companies.

因此，随着企业借贷成本上升，资本支出门槛利率也随之提高，市盈率倍数就变得难以合理化。

As a result, PE multiples become harder to justify as corporate borrowing costs rise and that CapEx hurdle rate rises.

最后一点是，那些杠杆较高的公司，也就是对利率上升最敏感的公司，会变得脆弱得多。

And then the last thing is that leverage companies, you know, those that are most exposed to higher interest rates become far more vulnerable.

所以，这就是它如何传导到市场其他部分的过程。

And so that's kind of how it plays out into the rest of the markets.

你觉得十年期和三十年期国债收益率达到什么水平时，你会开始对股市感到担忧？大卫，我之所以这么问，是因为我和很多人一样，都听过也说过这个理论：当利率上升时，未来现金流的折现值会下降，理论上确实如此。

Do you think that there is some level on the ten year at the thirty year at which you begin to get concerned about equities be and I'll say the reason I'm asking the question, David, is because I, like so many, have heard and also said that that theory of when interest rates rise, the the discounted value of future cash flows goes down, and it does theoretically.

但我认为，实际上真正按这个理论操作的投资者，全世界大概只有两个。

But I think there are just about two investors in the world who actually do that in practice.

一个是奥斯瓦尔德·佐莫特，估值领域的权威教授，他解释过这个原理；另一个就是沃伦·巴菲特。

One, Oswald Zomoter, the dean evaluation, great professor who explained this is is principle, and the second is Warren Buffett.

但我认为，投资界并不是根据这个原理来进行交易和投资的，因为收益率上升的同时，股票也在上涨。

But I think the the investing world does not trade and invest based on that principle because yields go up and and stocks go up as well.

你觉得收益率会不会继续和标普500指数一起上涨，就像自三月份以来那样？

And and do you think yields can continue to go up alongside, you know, the S and P 500 as they have since since March?

其实，现在推动股市的主要是盈利，因为我们看到了AI技术和超大规模计算公司的崛起，以及这项技术正在经济中被广泛采用的前景。

Really, what's driving equity markets today is earnings because we've seen, you know, the rise of AI technology and hyperscalers and the promise of this, you know, this technology that's now, you know, going across and being adopted across the economy.

所以，盈利，企业盈利跟上了步伐。

So earnings, corporate earnings have kept pace.

而且现在我们处于AI基础设施建设的阶段，那些参与建设的行业和公司，它们的盈利一直很稳定。

And then now that we're in the AI infrastructure build out phase, those sectors and companies that are participating in that build out, their earnings have been stable.

所以市场真正在说的是，我们已经从那种被动的、只是继续投资股市的状态，转向了更关注基本面，当然被动投资仍然是市场的一部分。

So really what the markets are actually saying is that we've moved from, you know, more of a passive type, we're just going to continue to invest in the equity markets, which that's still a function within the markets, but now we're focused more on fundamentals.

我认为这就是为什么利率能升到这么高，而股市同时还能继续上涨的原因。

And I think that's why we've seen rates have the ability to rise as far as they have, while equity markets have continued to rise simultaneously.

话虽如此，最大的风险是那些需要融资来扩张业务的公司，它们的借贷成本会是什么样子？

Having said that, the biggest risk is can these companies that need to finance to expand their operations, what is their borrowing costs gonna look like?

你知道，这很可能会全面压缩利润率，因为利率高了，意味着任何时候再融资现有债务或借新债，成本都会更高。

You know, it's likely going to compress margins across the board just because, you know, with higher rates, that means anytime there's a refinancing of existing debt, or taking on new debt that's at higher levels.

所以市场，我相信接下来会发生的是，市场会不仅关注资本支出，还会关注这些资本支出的变现能力，以及这些支出能否支撑盈利的持续增长。

So the market, I believe what will happen is the market will become focused on not just capex, but the monetization of that capex and will that capex support continued earnings growth.

但从利率水平来看，高利率肯定会持续一段时间，也就是说，会更久，这

But in terms of a level, rates are certainly here to stay, I mean, for longer, which

是

is

一个与2008年全球金融危机后完全不同的局面。

a vastly different paradigm than what we've experienced, you know, post global financial crisis back in 2008.

而且实际上，目前还没有什么因素能促使美联储开始降息周期。

And and really right now, there hasn't been a catalyst for the Fed to start an easing cycle.

降息周期，就是进一步降息。

An easing cycle, cutting rates further.

进一步降息。

Cutting rates further.

这主要是因为我们现在面临持续且顽固的通胀压力。

And that's largely driven by the persistent and sticky inflation inflationary pressures that we're experiencing.

而且劳动力市场表现也不错。

But also the labor markets have have performed well.

事实上，上周最新的就业数据向美联储传递了一个信号：劳动力市场并没有崩溃。

And in fact, the most recent jobs data from last week kind of signaled to the Fed that labor markets aren't breaking.

实际上，劳动力市场还在扩张，但与此同时，高利率自然会对经济和产出形成拖累。

In fact, they're expanding, but meanwhile rates, higher rates have a natural drag on the economy and economic production.

所以，接下来会怎样还有待观察。

So it remains to be seen.

但就十年期国债收益率的具体水平而言，我认为这确实要取决于投资者对这些公司的兴趣，以及这些公司能否通过盈利来支撑更高的借贷成本和更低的利润率。

But in terms of like a specific level on the tenure, I think it really has to be driven by investor appetite within these companies and these companies to support those higher borrowing costs and lower margins through earnings.

是的。

Yes.

我还觉得，硅谷和加州的人对人工智能非常乐观。

I also think that the people in Silicon Valley in California are so bullish on AI.

他们把它看作未来，看作无限增长的源泉。

They see it as the future as a source of limitless infinite growth.

说得夸张一点，他们觉得，你知道，美国……

And to exaggerate a little bit like they view, you know, U.

美国。

S.

美元和债券在他们眼里就像卫生纸一样。

Dollars and and bonds as kind of toilet paper.

他们觉得，天哪，一年前我还能以6%的利率借钱来投资这个改变世界的巨大科技项目。

The idea that they're going to like, oh my God, I could borrow at 6% a year ago to to fund this gigantic technology that's going to change the world.

但现在我得按6.7%的利率借钱，所以我真的要放慢脚步了。

But now, I have to borrow at 6.7%, so I'm actually going to slow down.

我觉得这完全不现实。

I just don't think that's realistic at all.

你知道，也许在8%或9%的时候他们会放慢，但我没看到硅谷高管层有这种反应。

You know, maybe they slowed down at 8% or 9%, but I'm not seeing that that reaction function from the the c suite in Silicon Valley.

你同意我的看法吗？

Would you agree with me?

我是不是疯了？

Am I crazy?

我也没有看到任何大型科技公司最近的财报提到要放慢速度。

I haven't seen that either where any of the recent large cap tech company earnings reports talk about slowing down at all.

实际上，看起来他们还在加速推进。

In fact, it seems to be peddled down.

而且，你知道，他们会继续往前冲，努力把这项技术和相关基础设施建起来。

And, you know, I'll, you know, steam ahead, you know, just moving forward to try to get this technology and infrastructure surrounding it built out.

所以你说得对，他们的表态里没有看到放缓的迹象。

And so to your point, I don't see a slowdown in their commentary.

只要盈利还能支撑估值，他们就会继续推进。

As long as earnings continue to support valuations, they'll continue to move forward.

这其实是科技繁荣中反复出现的模式。回顾历史，从铁路、电力、个人电脑、互联网，到现在的AI，我们知道必须要有基础设施的建设。

And this is sort of kind of a repeating pattern across technological booms if we look back across history from railroads, electricity, personal computers, internet, and now AI, we know that there has to be an infrastructure built out.

我们知道会有公司从这些基础设施建设中受益。

We know that there's going to be companies that will benefit from that infrastructure build out.

但第三步是看谁采用这项技术，谁采用得快，并且能获得那些效率提升。

But then the third order is who adopts it and who adopts it quickly and can gain those efficiencies.

所以这也是我在关注的方向。

And so that's that's kind of what I'm looking for as well.

你觉得通胀压力在经济中扎根有多深？

What do you think about just how embedded the inflation pressures are within the economy?

它们是暂时的，还是长期存在的？

Are they transitory or are they secular embedded?

我觉得很多都可以看作是暂时的。

I think a lot of it can be deemed transitory.

我这么说是因为，如果今天中东战争停火，所有航道都开放，石油在全球流通，我们就会看到能源价格开始下降。

And the reason I say that is because if we had a ceasefire today in the war in The Middle East and all of the shipping lanes were open and oil was flowing across the globe, we would start to see the price of energy come down.

然后这会渗透到美国经济中，

And then that would permeate The U.

也就是降低

S.

消费品和生产品的投入成本。

Economy in terms of lower inputs into both consumer and producer products.

同时，如果我们能消除或者暂时搁置这些贸易战和关税，那也会带来通缩效应，会渗透到整个经济中。

At the same time, if we can eliminate or, you know, put to the side these trade wars and tariffs, then then that will be deflationary as well, that will permeate the economy.

所以一方面，你可以说这是暂时的，因为目前这一切都是由财政政策、政府行动以及和伊朗的战争所驱动的。

So on one hand, you can make a case that it is transitory because currently it's all being driven by fiscal policy as well as government actions and the war with Iran.

但另一方面，这也假设了超市或大型零售商的商品价格会随之下降。

But on the other hand, you know, it also assumes that now that, you know, the price of goods in the grocery stores or the big box retailers would come down alongside it.

问题是，如果你是零售商，当你的商品成本下降时，你会不会试图通过保持高价来提高利润率？

The question is, you know, if you're a retailer and your cost of goods drops, would you try to improve your margins by keeping the prices marked up?

还是你会降价？

Or would you drop those prices?

我的直觉是，这只是一个直觉，大多数零售商不会降价。

And my hunch is, and this is just a hunch, is that most retailers wouldn't drop prices.

他们会意识到，更高的收入来自于他们购买商品的价格和销售价格之间的差额。

They would recognize that higher revenue is a difference between what they paid for the goods versus what they sold them for.

所以从那个角度看，我认为这在一定程度上是根深蒂固的，然后我们需要工资通胀上升来匹配这一点，以及已经嵌入在商品和服务成本中的通胀。

So I think from that perspective, it's it's somewhat embedded and then we need wage inflation to pick pick up to match that and the inflation that's already embedded within those the cost of goods and services.

大卫，我想问问你关于国债市场长端资金流动的情况，就是十年期到三十年期，还有机构抵押贷款支持证券，这显然是相关的。

David, I want to ask you about the flow dynamic in the longer term end of the Treasury market, the ten year to two thousand and thirty year, the agency mortgage backed securities, which is obviously related.

你知道，当谈到真正了解是什么推动这些长期限债券在机构层面的需求时，我不是在说投机者或宏观对冲基金，那些我们大家都熟悉和喜爱的，把利率市场搅得天翻地覆的家伙。

You know, when it comes to actually knowing what is gonna drive demand for these longer term durations in an institutional setting, I'm not talking about speculators or the macro hedge funds who, know, who we all know and love and bang the all the rates around.

但就这些证券的实际购买力而言，那可是数万亿美元的资金，你觉得要怎样才能让这些买家重返市场，并且所谓的“守住”十年期国债呢？

But in terms of actual, you know, trillions of dollars of buying power for these securities, do you think it's it is going to take to get these buyers to return to the markets and kind of, quote, unquote, defend the ten year?

他们会在5%的收益率水平守住十年期国债吗？

Are they gonna defend the ten year at 5%?

会是5.5%还是6%呢？

Is it gonna be 5.5%, 6%?

我指的是那些大型保险公司和银行，显然。

I'm talking about the, you know, obviously, giant insurance companies and and banks.

这个市场里还有来自私人信贷和投资级债券的竞争。

You have competition in this market from private credits and investment grade bonds.

让我觉得有意思的是，这些保险公司和机构投资者在十年期国债收益率只有1.5%的时候爱不释手，现在收益率到了4.7%或者4.8%，他们反而不喜欢了。

It is interesting to me that all these insurance companies and institutional investors loved the ten year when it was at 1.5%, and now they don't seem to like it now that it's at 4.7% or 44.8%.

所以我就想知道，你能分享一下你对长期国债需求驱动因素的看法吗？你觉得要怎样才能让那些买家大规模重返市场？

So I just I wonder, can you share your thoughts on the the drivers of this appetite for longer dated government paper, and and what you think it's going to take to to to to get those buyers back in the market in a big way.

三十年期国债的自然买家是保险公司、公共养老金计划、主权财富基金等等。

The natural buyer of the thirty year is insurance companies, public pension plans, sovereign wealth funds, and so on.

这些基本上就是三十年期国债的自然买家。

Those are sort of the natural buyers of the thirty year.

除此之外，市场上就没有太多自然买家了。

Beyond that, there's not a lot of natural buyers out there.

二十年期国债的情况可能也差不多。

That's likely true for the twenty year as well.

十年期国债就有点不同了，因为共同基金和资产管理公司也会参与投资。

The ten year's a little bit different because then you get mutual funds, money managers that are investing there as well.

三十年期国债的收益率在八月份确实突破了5.3%。

So the thirty year, it did cross the 5.3% back in August.

目前三十年期国债的收益率大约在5.29%。

We're currently at about a 5.29 yield on the thirty year.

所以我觉得归根结底就是供需关系的问题。

So I think what it boils down to is the supply demand dynamic.

现在国债的供应量远远大于需求。

So there's far more supply of treasuries.

而需求方面，其实要看几个因素的综合作用。

The demand that's out there really looking at a combination of factors.

一个是，你知道，现在收益率更高了。

One is, you know, we have higher yields.

所以理论上，这应该会让三十年期国债对自然买家更有吸引力。

And so in theory, it would make thirty year treasuries more attractive for the natural buyer.

但你也说得很对，市场上还有竞争，比如私人信贷基金，还有投资级公司债的发行，这些都在争夺有限的资金，每个领域能投入的资本都是有限的。

But also, you rightly pointed out that there's competition and that's in the form of, you know, private credit funds, as well as IGE corporate investment grade corporate issuance, there's supply and limited amounts of capital that can be used to deploy in each one of these segments.

所以真正关键的是需求从哪里来。

So really what it boils down to is where the demand comes from.

我要指出的是，是的，美国...

And what I would point to is that yes, the U.

美国

S.

国债规模是十万亿美元，但我们的GDP仍然很高，毕竟我们还是全球最大的经济体。

Treasury debt is trillion, at but our GDP is still, you know, we're still the largest economy.

美国

The U.

的

S.

美国国债收益率曲线是全球的基准曲线。

Treasury curve is the benchmark curve across the globe.

所以自然会有买家参与这个市场。

And so naturally, there's going to be buyers in that space.

但现在考虑到资金管理者面临的供应情况和其他可投资的选择，他们可以把钱投在这些替代产品上，而不是全部投向国债。

But now with the supply and alternatives that are out there for these money managers, they can deploy investments, investable dollars there versus Treasury.

所以最终会归结为一点，我不太喜欢这么表述，但确实可能存在一个催化剂，迫使投资者去寻求美国国债这种避险资产的保护。

So, so what it'll come down to and I and I hate to frame it this way is is that, you know, there there's, there may have to be a catalyst that forces investors to seek the shelter of a U.

美国。

S.

国债，而不是投资级公司债或私募信贷类产品。

Treasury versus an IG corporate or a private credit type facility.

新的地方不在于私募信贷存在，也不在于亚马逊政府债券与国库券、票据和债券竞争，而在于我怀疑在机构环境中是否存在强烈的抵触情绪，因为赚钱靠的是承担信用风险，而亏钱靠的是承担利率风险或持有较长期限的政府债券。

What's new is not that private credit exists or not that an Amazon government bond exists in competition with the treasury bills and notes and bonds, but what's new is that I I wonder if if in institutional settings, is a strong reluctance because what has made the money is by taking credit risk, and what has lost the money is by taking interest rate risk or owning longer dated government things.

所以我在想，比如所有这些进入私募信贷的人寿保险公司，它们的期限可能是五到七年，但实际久期几乎为零，因为它们是浮动利率。

So I wonder, like, all these life insurance getting into private credit that has it may have a maturity of five to seven years, but it has a duration effectively of zero because it's at floating rates.

所以，你知道，美联储，基本上没有久期。

So, you know, the Federal Reserve, no no duration at all, basically.

而且，为什么这些人寿保险公司以前想买三十年国债，现在却想要久期大概，不知道，2022年的那种。

And, like, why are these life insurance companies now they they used to wanna buy thirty year treasury bonds, and now they would have duration of, like, don't know, 2022.

你知道数学，我可不知道。

You you know the math, not me.

但现在他们想持有久期为零的东西。

But now they wanna own a something that has a duration of of zero.

这是怎么回事？

Like, what's what's going on?

那些保险公司本来是三十年期国债的自然买家，当时收益率在1.5%的时候他们想买。

The natural buyer of these insurance companies that wanted to buy the thirty year when it was at god.

让我想想。

Let's see.

我觉得是1.5%，1.5%。

One and a half, I think, one point.

你知道吗？

You know?

我是说，是的。

I mean, it's Yeah.

我本来想在1.5%的时候买，现在都到5%了，他们去哪儿了？

I wanted by when I was at one and a half, now it's at five, and where are they?

他们的电话号码是多少？

What are their phone numbers?

我们给他们打个电话吧。

Let's give them a call.

对。

Yes.

我完全同意。

I I totally.

你知道吗，保险公司有意思的地方在于，它们管理资产负债表的方式和银行非常相似。

You know, what's interesting about insurance companies, and they manage their balance sheet very similar to how a bank does.

所以是资产负债匹配，也就是说，对保险公司而言，负债是未来要支付的年金和人寿保险赔付，你知道，就是支付人寿保险。

So it's asset liability matched, meaning for an insurance company, their liabilities are their future payouts for annuities and life insurance, you know, pay out life insurance.

而资产则是他们从保费中收到的现金，然后投资到一系列投资项目中。

And their assets are the cash that they receive from a premium and they invest that into a series of investments.

所以从历史上看，他们投资方式比较传统，我会说，投资级公司债、国债、政府机构债券等等，还有一小部分配置在高收益型投资证券上。

So historically, they were investing in a very kind of traditional way, I'll say, investment grade corporates, treasuries, government agencies, and so on, with a smaller allocation to more high yield type investment securities.

随着私人信贷的出现和兴起，私人信贷本身并不是什么新鲜事物，但现在更受关注了，因为现在这些保险公司可以在私人信贷上获得更高的利率。

With the advent and the rise of private credit, and private credit's nothing that's necessarily new, but it's now more in the forefront because now these insurance companies, they can collect higher interest rates on private credit.

很多这些私人信贷基金，你知道，都被宣传成是优先担保、第一留置权的，但说实话，其中一些投资的贷款领域，我会比较谨慎。

A lot of these private credit funds, you know, are being marketed as were senior secured, first lien, and some of them are quite frankly, are investing in loans across, you know, spaces that I would be cautious on.

比如诉讼融资，还有以软件公司的知识产权作为支持的这类东西。

So things like litigation, finance, and being backed by, you know, intellectual property of a software company and those kinds of things.

所以任何时候，这在市场的任何领域都是如此，只要你获得更高的收益率，那个更高的收益率里面就隐藏着风险。

So anytime and this is true for any segment of the market, anytime you're getting a yield that's higher, you're there's embedded risk within that that higher yield.

所以这不是一个无风险的交换。

And so it's not a risk free trade off.

是的，他们缩短了久期，久期风险，也就是债券的市场风险。

Yes, they're they've shortened the duration, the duration risk, which is market risk for a bond.

在这种情况下，你说得对。

In this case, you're right.

它是浮动利率的，但现在他们把信用风险放大了，或者说调高了。

It's it's floating rate, but now they've amplified or turned up the dial on credit risk.

我对任何投资私人信贷的人，无论是散户投资者还是机构投资者，都有一个疑问，那就是：你能接触到贷款明细表吗？

And the question that I have for anybody that's investing in private credit, whether it's a retail investor or an institutional investor is to say, do you have access to a loan tape?

也就是说，你知道他们把钱借给了谁，这些贷款的表现如何吗？

Meaning, do you know who they've lent to the performance of those loans?

有没有逾期？

Are they delinquent?

有没有拖欠？

Are they past due?

他们有没有对抵押的房产或其他担保物进行止赎？

Are they foreclosing on whatever property that's or whatever securing the loan itself?

所以，很多这类基金之所以提供更高的收益率，是有原因的，那是因为他们承担了更高的信用风险。

So there's a reason that a lot of those funds are offering higher yields, but it's because they're taking higher credit risk.

在固定收益投资组合管理中，我经常用我职业生涯中一直使用的一个比喻，这就像是一个均衡器，对吧？

And with fixed income portfolio management, I go back to this analogy that I've used across my career, it's almost like an equalizer, right?

投资债券时，你主要面临四种风险。

So there's four main risks that you take when you invest in bonds.

我明白，那些债券专家可能会说，风险不止这些，但基本上就是流动性风险、信用风险、久期风险和凸性风险。久期是指利率变化导致的市场价格变化，而凸性是指利率变化导致的久期变化。

And I get it, you know, the bond nerds out there will say, well, there's more than this, but essentially it's liquidity, it's credit, it's duration and it's convexity risk, meaning duration is the change in market price given a change in interest rates and convexity is the change in duration given a change in interest rates.

所以如果你买三十年期的国债，价格跌很多，收益率上升，你就会亏钱。

So if you buy if you buy a thirty year yield and the price goes down a lot and the yield goes up, you lose money.

但如果你买的是两年期的，亏的钱就会少很多。

Whereas if you did that with a two year yield, you would lose a lot less money.

对。

Correct.

因为还有到期回归面值的效应在起作用，比如像美国政府发行的国债。

Because because you still have the pull to par dynamic that's happening, you know, so like a government agent or a U.

美国。

S.

以美国国债为例，如果你买两年期的并持有到期，你就能拿回本金。

Treasury bond as an example, if you buy a two year and you hold that to maturity, you'll get your principal back.

如果你买三十年期的并持有三十年到期，你也能拿回本金。

If you buy a thirty year and hold all thirty years to maturity, you'll get your principal back.

但这里我们讨论的是市场价值的变化。

But in this case, what we're talking about is the change in market value.

所以，三十年期的债券在利率变动时，市场价值的变化会更大。

So a thirty year bond has a greater change in market value given a change in interest rates.

然后，如果有一些提前还款的特性，比如可赎回条款或者带有提前还款功能的抵押贷款支持证券，那么利率的上升或下降就会改变久期。

And then if you have some prepayment characteristics, like a call feature or a mortgage backed security, which has a prepay feature, then a rise or decline in interest rates can change the duration.

所以，抵押贷款支持证券的久期可能是三年，但也可能是十年，这取决于利率的变动方向。

So mortgage backed security could have a duration of three years, but it could also have a duration of ten years depending on which direction interest rates move.

所以，这些保险公司所做的就是降低了久期风险和凸性风险，同时增加了流动性和信用风险。

And so what these insurance companies have done is they've turned down the duration risk, the convexity risk, and turned up liquidity and credit risk.

这就是他们如何在这些投资中获得更高收益的。

And that's how they're getting these higher yields in terms of that investment.

根据美国银行的数据，长期国债（即十五年及以上期限）的十年滚动年化收益率，现在是美国历史上最低的，比1959年还低，我想那是二战刚结束的时候，当时有收益率曲线管制之类的情况。

Per per Bank of America, the ten year rolling annualized returns for the long dated Treasury, so fifteen years and out, is the lowest ever in American history, lower than 1959, which I guess is coming out out of World War two when you have yield serve, know, yield yield curve repression and everything like that.

大卫，帮我理解一下。

David, help me understand.

我们建立一个模型，假设只有一种类型的投资者，即人寿保险公司。

Let's let's make a model where there's only one type of investor, life insurance companies.

他们做的事情是，把一大群平均年龄大概53岁的人聚在一起。

What they do is they take a ton of individuals who, let's say, have an average age of 53.

然后向他们卖人寿保险。

They sell them life insurance.

所以平均来说，这些人的寿命大概到80岁左右。

And so on average, you know, the average age is gonna be until maybe a little bit before 80.

所以，好，我们有一个负债久期，是23年。

So, like, okay, we have a duration we have a liability duration of twenty three years.

所以我们需要买久期也是23年的资产。

So we need to buy assets that have a duration of twenty three years.

他们就去市场上找。

They go out in the market.

好。

Okay.

以前，他们会在市场上买大量的20到30年期的国债，他们是那个长久期市场上少有的天然买家。

Back in the day, they used to go out in the market and buy a ton of twenty to thirty year treasuries, and they were the the rare natural buyer for that long duration market.

现在他们大量涌入私人信贷，而私人信贷的久期是零。

Now they're plowing into private credit, which has a duration of zero.

我是不是漏掉了什么？

What am I kind of missing?

比如，他们在市场上的买盘在哪里？

Like, where where is their bid in the market?

为什么现在比当年弱那么多？

Why is it so much more feeble than than back in the day?

而且，我不是想贬低他们，但他们的久期是不是比五年前低了？还是说五年前他们因为宏观判断失误而超配久期，现在又低配了？

And, like, I I, you know, I don't mean to, like, cast dispersion, but, like, are they having a lower duration than, you know, were they overweight on duration five years ago because of macroeconomic views that they had that were wrong, or are they underweight now?

到底什么变了？

Like, what has changed?

我猜大多数保险公司在某种程度上是久期匹配的，但有一部分资产组合是追求更高收益的。

My guess is is that most of them have are somewhat duration matched, but with a segment of the portfolio targeting higher yields.

所以可能，我听说保险公司资产中私人信贷的比例从7%到接近12%到15%不等。

So maybe it's, you know, I've heard it ranged from 7% of the assets in an insurance company or private credit all the way out to closer to 12 to 15%.

这背后有我针对保险公司本身做的尽职调查作为支撑。

And that's backed by some of the due diligence that I've done on insurance carriers themselves.

所以，如果他们能拿出一部分投资组合，保持久期匹配，但投资于收益率更高的证券，这就能提高他们的盈利能力，甚至可能让他们在承保时降低保费，从而更具竞争力。或者从年金的角度看，像固定指数年金里嵌入的封顶利率这类附加条件，也可以设得更高，从而吸引更多投资者。

And so if they can take a segment, and this is likely the case that they're building, if they can take a segment of their investment portfolio, maintain their duration match, but then invest it in higher yielding securities, that improves their profitability and potentially some of the insurance contracts that they're writing can be written with lower premiums to make them more competitive or from an annuity perspective, some of the bells and whistles, like the cap rates embedded within an annuity, like a fixed index annuity, can be higher thereby attracting more investors.

所以我觉得，这就是他们投资私人信贷的驱动力。

So I think that that's kind of what's driving why they're investing in private credit.

但正因为如此，你说得完全对。

But because of that, you're you're exactly right.

长期国债的自然买家已经更多地转向了私人信贷，而不是去购买政府债务或投资级公司债。

The natural buyer of the long treasuries has shifted into more of that private credit versus going out into government debt or investment grade corporates.

大卫，这对投资者来说意味着什么呢？

And what does this all mean for investors, David?

你知道，投资者一直被灌输一个观念，而且确实如此，那就是债券是个很好的对冲工具。

You know, the the thing that investors were told and are told, you know, it is true that bonds are a good hedge.

当经济衰退、股市在熊市中受挫时，收益率会下降。

When there's a recession and stocks suffer during a a bear market, a recession, yields are gonna come down.

市场已经消化了美联储降息的预期，通胀也会降下来。

Pricing in a fed a fed cut inflation is gonna come down.

所以债券是投资组合中的压舱石，我觉得有一段时间这个策略确实非常有效。

So bonds are a ballast in your portfolio, and I think there was a while where that worked out really, really well.

但现在有时候股市下跌，债券也跟着跌，相关性就不那么明显了。

But now you have times where you you the stock market sells off and bonds sell off too, and the correlation isn't isn't really there.

那么到2026年及以后，债券在投资组合中扮演什么角色呢？

So in 2026 and and onwards, what is the role of of bonds in a portfolio?

对，你说得对，股票和债券的相关性历史上在零到零点五之间，也就是说有时候两个市场会朝同一个方向走。

Yeah, so so to your point, the correlation between stocks and bonds has historically ranged from zero to point five, meaning that there are times when both markets move in the same direction.

好的，最近的一个例子就是2023年初。

Good, a recent example that was going into 2023.

当时美联储开始了历史上最激进的加息周期之一，无论是速度还是幅度都很大。

As the Fed started on one of their most aggressive rate hikes, rate hiking cycles in history, both in terms of the speed and the magnitude.

我们看到债券全线下跌，因为美联储加息太快了。

We saw bonds sell off across the curve because the Fed was raising rates so quickly.

与此同时，在那段时间里，股票市场也出现了下跌。

Meanwhile, we also saw equity markets drop as well during that time period.

所以有时候它们会同步波动，但你说的那种股票和债券混合的情况，历史上债券在增加多元化方面确实起到了不错的稳定作用。

And so there are times when they move together, but the scenario that you're describing wherein stock and bond mix, bonds have historically been a decent ballast in terms of adding that diversification.

我觉得现在又回到了那种状态，因为利率高了很多，即使发生灾难性的黑天鹅事件，股市开始抛售，投资者涌向国债避险，我们也会看到股市下跌，而债券市场上涨。

I think we're actually there again because rates are so much higher and that even if there's a catastrophic black swan type event and equity markets start selling off and investors push into the safety of treasuries, then we'll see the equity markets drop, meanwhile the bond markets rise.

所以有时候它们会同向波动，但考虑到现在的利率水平，我认为它们在投资组合中有一席之地，因为这种动态，它们可以自然地，我不想用对冲这个词，但可以自然地抵消股票和债券之间的价格风险。

And so there are times when they move in the same direction, but given where rates are today, I think that they have a place in portfolios because of that dynamic that they can be a natural, I don't wanna use the word hedge, but a natural offset to the price risk associated between stocks and bonds.

你的意思是，当收益率较高时，总回报的波动性就会更低，因为你只要持有就能获得回报。

And your point being that when they have higher yields, the total return volatility is just going to be lower because you are paid to just be in it.

没错。

That's right.

没错。

That's right.

特别是国债，因为它们有美国政府的完全信用支持，所以它们可以充当避风港。

And and specifically with treasuries, because they're backed by the full faith and credit of the US government, you know, they can they can act as that safe haven.

同时，如果发生像黑天鹅这样的事件，信用利差开始扩大，那么投资级公司债、高收益公司债甚至私人信贷都可能出现回撤，仅仅是因为这些结构内部所蕴含的信用风险。

Meanwhile, if if there is, an event like a black swan type event and we start to see credit spreads widen, that's where investment grade corporates, high yield corporates and even private credit can experience a drawdown just simply because of the credit risk that's embedded within within each one of those structures.

所以在那种情况下，国债的表现可能会优于任何带有信用成分的资产。

So in that scenario, treasuries would would likely outperform anything that has a credit component associated with it.

所以你现在看好国债，作为投资组合中的平衡器？

So you like treasuries now as a balance within a portfolio?

是的，是的。

Yes, yes.

事实上，我关注的是三到五年期这个区间，当然不会超过二十到三十年。

And in fact, that that three to five year range is, you know, kind of where I look, certainly not out, you know, longer than twenty to thirty years.

但这也是考虑到客户群体，对于典型的散户投资者来说，他们不会去买二十年或三十年的国债。

But that's also being mindful of the clientele, you know, for a typical retail investor, they're not going to buy a twenty year or thirty year.

他们会选择大约在美国国债的久期范围内的产品。

They're going to be in that, you know, right around the duration range of The U.

是的。

S.

彭博美国

Bloomberg U.

综合债券指数

S.

久期大概在六年左右。

Aggregate Bond Index, which is roughly six years.

所以三到五年的区间，你甚至可以放宽到三到七年。

So that three to five year range, you can even step out, you know, three to seven.

不过眼下最大的好处是，收益率曲线呈正向排列时，会出现一种久违的动态效应。也就是说，你可以买入票息更高的五年期债券，持有它随着时间推移逐渐缩短久期到三年，然后卖出并再投资。只要收益率曲线保持相对稳定且向上倾斜，这个策略就很有效。

But right now, the real benefit here is that with a positively sloping curve, there's this dynamic that hasn't been around for a good while, meaning that you can buy a higher coupon five year and let it roll down to that three year then sell it and reinvest it, you know, if the curve stays relatively stable and positively sloping.

除此之外，我认为把债券当作一个不错的分散风险工具也是合理的，而且当前较高的收益率让这种配置显得更有吸引力。

But beyond that, it's using bonds as a good diversification tool, I think, warranted and higher yields make it far more attractive.

你没必要为了反叛而反叛。就像大家和医生都说吸烟不健康，这并不意味着吸烟就健康了。

You don't always want to be contrarian just for the sake of being contrarian like, you know, just because the majority of people and doctors think that smoking is is is not healthy doesn't mean that it is healthy.

很多时候大众的判断反而是对的。就拿长期国债ETF TLT来说，它是规模最大的长期国债基金，管理资产规模达到了102亿美元。

Like you some of a lot of times the crowd is right, but just looking at the TLT, so that the biggest ETF for long dated Treasuries, the market cap AUM is $10,200,000,000.

我记得那时候是两倍。

Like, I remember it was twice that.

基本上，你之前说的就是，你觉得你不得不在投资组合中为国债辩护，当然，国债应该是每个人投资组合中的核心部分，除了那些非常年轻的人，但确实感觉每个人都在看空国债，对吧？

And basically, you know, what what you were saying before of you basically are feeling you you feeling like you have to defend the role of treasuries in a portfolio, which of course, it's it should be core in, you know, every person's portfolio other than, like, you know, quite young people, but it does feel like everyone is bearish treasuries, doesn't it?

确实如此。

That's the case.

真正推动这一点的其实是几个因素的结合。

And really what's driving that is is a combination.

我是说，目前未偿还的美国国债有40万亿美元。

I mean, it's the 40,000,000,000,000 in current outstanding U.

美国。

S.

国债，作为一个国家，我们的借贷成本显著上升，仅仅是因为我们以更高的收益率发行国债。

Treasury debt, the fact that as a country, our borrowing rates are significantly higher, just due to the fact that we're issuing treasuries at higher yields.

我们可以稍微谈谈美国。

We can talk a little bit about U.

美国。

S.

财政部宣布增加回购以支持流动性，但市场上那些债券义警们把这当作一个信号，认为美国。

Treasury's announcement to increase their buybacks to support liquidity, but what's happening there is the bond vigilantes of the world are using that as a signal that the U.

美国。

S.

财政部长本人对收益率上升以及长期国债需求感到担忧。

Treasury secretary himself is concerned about rising yields and the demand for those longer dated treasuries.

这算是个有趣的进展，增加债券回购，而且实际上今天就已经开始了。

And that's kind of an interesting development, the increase in bond buybacks, and in fact, they started today.

最初宣布的回购规模从20亿美元增加到40亿美元。

So the initial announcement was increasing the buybacks from 2,000,000,000 to 4,000,000,000.

我记得今天，也就是9月9日，他们实际回购了60亿美元。

I believe today, which is September 9, that they actually bought back 6,000,000,000.

所以他们增加了回购的金额。

So they increased the amount of buybacks.

而且基本上，美国

And and essentially what what the U.

财政部长

S.

解释他们这么做的原因，就是为了支持一些较长期限的、较老旧的美国

Treasury Secretary's statement for why they're doing this is to support liquidity in some of these longer dated, older U.

国债

S.

的流动性。

Treasuries.

现在这是在总美国

Now that's on backdrop of, total U.

国债

S.

债务达到40万亿美元的背景下，国债的日交易量大约在1.2万亿美元以上。

Treasury debt is $40,000,000,000,000 The daily trade volume in treasuries is roughly $1,200,000,000,000 plus.

所以，你知道，增加20亿美元的回购相对于每日交易量以及总未偿名义金额来说，简直是杯水车薪。

And so, you know, increasing the buybacks by $2,000,000,000 is a drop in the bucket compared to the daily trade volume, as well as the total notional outstanding.

但关键在于它传递出的信号。

But it's the signal that it's sending.

而市场关注的正是这个信号，而不是国债曲线可能从这些对较长期、流动性较差的国债的支持中获得的好处。

And that's what the market's focused on is the signal that it's sending, not necessarily the the benefit that the treasury curve could experience from from these from the support for these longer dated, less liquid treasuries.

是的。

Yes.

而且今天较长期限的收益率实际上涨了。

And the longer dated yields actually rose today.

也许他们期望的流动性支持不止60亿美元。

Maybe they were expecting a little bit more than 6,000,000,000 in liquidity support.

有意思。

Interesting.

我的意思是，我不会想——你知道，人们说不要和美联储作对。

I mean, I wouldn't wanna you know, they say don't fight the Fed.

我可不想跟财政部对着干。

I wouldn't wanna fight the treasury.

谁知道呢。

What do you don't know.

我也同意这个说法，因为，是的，我记得是Marty Zellwig说的，他最早提出了“别跟美联储作对”这个说法。

I I agree with that statement as well because and, yes, it was I think it was Marty Zellwig that said, you know, the first coined the term don't fight the Fed.

这次财政部宣布的是回购较长期债券，然后通过发行较短期的国库券来融资。

In this case, what what the Treasury has announced is buying back longer dated bonds and and financing that with issuing shorter dated T bills.

我听说有人把它比作“扭转操作”。

And I've heard some compare it to like an Operation Twist.

从机制上看，我能理解这种比较，但从规模来看，这不过是九牛一毛。

Mechanistically, I can see that comparison, but in terms of the volume, it's a drop in the bucket.

从流动性支持的角度来看，这些操作还有另一种理解方式，虽然只是粗略的数字，但大约70%的日交易量都集中在活跃国债上。

And another way to kind of view these actions from a liquidity support perspective is, and these are just rough numbers, okay, but it's roughly like 70% of the daily trade volume is across the on the run treasuries.

然后还有大约15%是在第一和第二期非活跃国债上，也就是交易员所说的“旧券”和“双旧券”，指的是之前发行的活跃国债。

And then there's another, you know, call it 15% that is on the first and second off the run, or what traders call the olds and double olds, meaning these were the previously issued on the runs.

所以就是第一次和第二次脱离活跃期的国债。

So it's the first off the run and second off the run.

所以当你考虑这个动态时，你知道，可能80%到85%的日交易量是在活跃期国债以及第一次和第二次脱离活跃期的国债上。

And so when you think about that dynamic, you know, it could be 80 to 85% of daily trade volume or plus is in on the runs, and then first and second off the runs.

所以一些十年前或五年前发行的国债，可能没有自然买家，因为它们的票息较低，而且就那样闲置着。

So some of these treasuries that were issued, you know, ten years ago or five years ago, there may not be a natural buyer because they're lower coupon and they're sort of sitting there.

而在斯科特·贝森特的公告中，他通过提出回购这些国债来支持流动性。

And with Scott Bessent in the announcement, he's supporting that liquidity by offering to buy those back.

而且，再说一遍，规模和幅度，你知道，20亿美元在那个市场里只是九牛一毛。

And, and again, the size and the magnitude, you know, dollars 2,000,000,000 is a drop in the bucket in that market.

但他也提出了使用TGA，即财政部一般账户，来资助其中一些回购的想法。

But he's also floated the idea of using the TGA, the Treasury General Account to fund some of these buybacks as well.

最终，如果我们在这方面看到任何规模，这是一个比较直观的市场说法，他可以通过以较低价格回购这些国债来减少发行的总名义金额，因为它们可能以面值的60到70美分交易，而发行平价债券，总利息支付，你知道，总利息支出不会因为这个动态而改变，但这可以帮助逐步减少未偿还的总名义金额。

And ultimately, if we get any size in this, and this is kind of an intuitive market statement is that he can reduce the total notional being issued because he's buying these treasury back treasuries back at lower prices, because they're, you know, trading at maybe 60 to 70¢ on the dollar, and issuing par bonds, total interest payment, you know, total interest outlays won't change because of this dynamic, but it can help reduce the total notional outstanding incrementally.

比如说，如果是一张五年前发行的二十年期债券，那现在就是一张十五年期债券。

Let's say that say it was a twenty year bond that was issued five years ago, so it's now a fifteen year bond.

这就是你所说的非活跃国债。

That is what you called an off the run Treasury.

当保险公司和银行想买流动性好的资产时，他们不会买那种。

When insurance companies banks want to buy something that's liquid, they're not buying that.

他们想买的是新发行的十年期国债，流动性极好，买卖价差非常窄。

They want to buy a ten year that's fresh that you can get an incredibly liquid bid on with a ridiculously narrow bid ask spread.

十五年期的国债，买卖价差虽然还是窄，但相对宽一些。

The fifteen year, the bid ask spread, it's it's, you know, still narrow, but it but it is wider.

实际上，很多对冲基金在融资，他们买入这些非活跃国债，然后卖出国债期货来对冲，以极高的杠杆赚取价差。

And you actually have a lot of hedge funds are financing that they are buying these off the run treasuries and then selling treasury futures against them to harvest that spread at extreme leverage.

所以你是说，那个五年前发行的二十年期国债，现在变成十五年期了，发行时面值是100美元。

So so you're saying that that twenty year treasury that was issued five years ago, so it's now a fifteen year treasury, that was issued at par a $100.

现在交易价格是77美元。

It's now trading at $77.

假设财政部能以77美元买回，然后以100美元发行新债。

Let's say the Treasury can buy that at $77 and issue a bill at a $100.

等等。

So wait.

那这怎么降低未偿债务呢？

How does that lower the outstanding?

抱歉。

Sorry.

解释一下。

Explain that.

逐步地。

Incrementally.

换句话说，你想想看。

So so in other words, think about it.

把自己放在财政部长的位置上，他管理着总未偿债务。

Put put yourself in the treasury secretary's shoes, and he's managing the total debt outstanding.

我正看着我的彭博终端，上面列着所有到期日和对应的票息，但举个例子，有些债券因为利率变动，利率上升，债券价格就下跌了。

So and and I'm just looking at my my Bloomberg screen that has all the the maturities on it and their associated coupons, but as an example, are bonds out there that just because of the interest rate dynamic rates go up, the price of bonds comes down.

这样到期收益率就能跟当前利率匹配了。

That's so that the yield to maturity matches current rates.

所以如果他能以70美分的价格买回国债，然后用70美分买回来，再发行面值100美元或者1美元的债券。

And so if he's able to buy a treasury back at 70¢, so he's using 70¢ to buy it back and then issuing Oh, par, you know, a $100 or, you know, or a dollar a bond.

他可以通过发行100美元的面值，买回大约130美元的名义本金。

He can buy back like 130 notional back with by issuing 100.

明白了。

I see.

明白了。

I see.

对，就是这样。

Yes, that's that's exactly it.

所以现在他逐步地没有足够的购买力来做这件事。

And so incrementally now he doesn't have the buying power to do it.

你知道，TGA账户的余额在8000亿到1万亿美元之间。

You know, the TGA account ranges from 800, you know, billion to a trillion.