混沌因子：ARKF、10Q、10%

全球工业复兴正在重塑我们的世界。未来十年，能源、基础设施和技术等行业将需要约75至100万亿美元来实现现代化并满足需求。长期项目需要长期资本。这正是阿波罗的用武之地。凭借规模、灵活性和对增长的专注，我们正与企业合作，一次一个创新地推动未来。

The global industrial renaissance is transforming our world. Over the next decade, industries like energy, infrastructure, and technology will need an estimated 75 to $100,000,000,000,000 to modernize and meet demand. Long term projects need long duration capital. That's where Apollo steps in. With scale, flexibility, and a focus on growth, we're partnering with companies to drive the future, one innovation at a time.

了解更多请访问thinkitnew.com/renaissance。

Learn more at thinkitnew.com/renaissance.

如今，AI能帮你优化时间管理，却无法阻止同事在午餐时间安排会议。但若能轻松采用工业AI来优化业务呢？西门子加速器助您匹配合适的AI供应商，清晰了解其服务内容，通过模块化解决方案快速扩展业务规模。这就是工业AI全球市场领导者西门子带来的真实AI体验。详情请访问usa.siemens.com/ai。

These days, AI can help you adopt better time management, but it can't stop colleagues booking meetings during lunch. But how about being able to easily adopt industrial AI to streamline your business? Siemens Accelerator helps you find the right AI providers and easily understand what they offer, so you can use modular solutions to quickly scale up and grow your business. That's AI for real from the global market leader in industrial AI, Siemens. Learn more on usa.siemens.com/ai.

全新Adobe Acrobat Studio震撼登场

Introducing the all new Adobe Acrobat Studio

现搭载AI驱动的PDF空间。让PDF实现超乎想象的功能。需要AI一键将100页市场调研浓缩为五条核心洞察？用Acrobat实现。需要能促成交易的高效销售提案模板？

now with AI powered PDF Spaces. Do more with PDFs than you ever thought possible. Need AI to turn a 100 pages of market research into five insights with a click? Do that with Acrobat. Need templates for a sales proposal that'll close that deal?

用Acrobat实现。需要AI专家实时调整市场报告语气使其更显专业？全新Adobe Acrobat Studio助您达成。了解更多请访问adobe.com/用Acrobat实现。

Do that with Acrobat. Need an AI specialist to tailor the tone of your market report to sound real smart in real time? Do that with the all new Adobe Acrobat Studio. Learn more at adobe.com/ do that with Acrobat.

彭博音频工作室，提供播客、广播及新闻服务。

Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news.

所以你是

So You're

下周要去度假了。

on vacation next week.

是的。我会去科罗拉多的山区。

I am. I'll be in the mountains of Colorado.

滑雪吗？

Skiing?

对。你知道的，这时候雪况不太好，但是，嗯，出于对这项运动的热爱。

Yeah. You know, snow isn't great this time of year, but but, you know, love of the game.

财务方面你打算怎么安排？

What are you gonna do for money stuff?

我们得做点什么。

We should do something.

我们应该准备一些邮袋。

We should we should have some mailbags.

我们应该准备些邮袋。我会登录Zoom一小时，届时我们将回答观众提问。

We should have some mailbags. I will log on to Zoom for an hour, and we'll take questions from the audience.

好的。不要直播。

Okay. Not live.

不直播。但那样会很有趣。也许有一天可以试试。

Not live. But that would be fun. Maybe one day.

对。所以如果你们想让凯蒂回答问题

Right. So if you want Katie to answer questions

和马特一起。

With Matt.

在科罗拉多和我一起。对。现在就把问题发给我们吧。

In Colorado with me Yeah. Send them to us now.

我们需要他们。要告诉他们把问题发到哪里吗？

We need them. Should we tell them where to send questions?

应该是发到Bloomberg.net的moneypot邮箱。

I believe it's moneypot@Bloomberg.net.

听起来没错。

That sounds right.

真懂行。

Really knows.

对。只要对着天空喊出来，我们就能收到。

Yeah. Just yell them into the sky, and, it'll get to us.

千万别在Twitter上私信我。

Definitely don't DM me on Twitter.

你现在还上Twitter吗？

Do you still go on Twitter?

不是从不看，只是我不再查看通知或私信了。所以我基本上

Not never, but I don't look at my notifications or DMs anymore. So I'm pretty much

这有点可悲。

It's kinda sad.

确实很可悲。是啊。这就像是，你知道的，尤其是我生命中20%的时间都...问题就在这儿。

It's really sad. Yeah. This is like, you know Especially 20% of my life for That's the thing.

比如，年复一年月复一月地持续着。

Like, during years and months and years.

那已经结束了。

That was over.

它触及了太多社会问题。我不知道。我还是经常上线，但不再像以前那样频繁发推了。

It scratched so many social issues. I don't know. I still go on all the time, but I don't tweet as much anymore.

我不...我不是在作秀式地退出，但想起来时还是会转发我的专栏文章。不过...是的，我不再阅读

I don't. I'm not like performatively quitting, but I still like tweet my columns when I remember to. But Yeah. I don't read

不再这么做了。我以前会发猫咪推文，比如我的周五猫咪。

it anymore. I used to tweet a cat, like my Friday cat.

我记得你的一些推特梗。我觉得你的推特梗挺有意思的。

I remember some of your Twitter shticks. I feel like you had good Twitter shticks.

我确实有些好梗。

I did have good shticks.

现在还发吗？

You still did?

不发了。昨天美联储会议日，往常我会发‘一生中最美好的一天到了’。哦对对对，我好久没这么发了。感觉你知道的

No. No. And like yesterday on Fed day, usually I tweet time for the best day of our lives. Oh yeah yeah yeah I haven't done that in a while. I feel like, you know

不再是我们生命中最美好的一天了？

No longer the best day of our lives?

不是。昨天是

No. Yesterday was

剩下的。是啊。昨天是你人生中最美好的一天吗？

the rest. Yeah. Yesterday was the best day of your life?

不是。还行吧。我是说，他们降息了

No. It was fine. I mean, they cut

什么时候？

What time?

他们降了25个基点，这挺不错的。要是他们要么维持利率不变，要么降50个基点，那混乱效果会更惊人。

They cut 25 basis points, which is pretty cool. Would have been awesome for the chaos factor if they either held rates or cut 50 basis points.

是啊。是啊。是啊。你就想，降低预期呗。

Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. You want just, like, down expectations.

想把世界烧成灰烬。

Wanna burn the world down.

是啊。是啊。是啊。

Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

但我真的只想聊聊

But I really just wanna talk about

这将会是

This is gonna be

第一件事是什么？

What's the first thing?

生硬的转折。我只想讨论我面前这张纸上的任何内容。

Clanging his transition. I just wanna talk about whatever is on the piece of paper in front of me.

我真的很想谈谈ARK创新ETF以及这些IPO交易到底是怎么回事。那真是

I really wanna talk about the ARK Innovation ETF and whatever the heck is going on with these IPO trades. That was

相当不错。一直压在你心头

pretty good. Weighing on you for

确实如此。每天醒来都是这样。

It has been. Every day I wake up.

别管那些了。大家好，欢迎收听《金钱那些事》播客，这是我们每周讨论与金钱相关话题的节目。我是马特·莱文，为彭博观点撰写《金钱那些事》专栏。

None of that. Hello, and welcome to the Money Stuff podcast, your weekly podcast where we talk about stuff related to money. I'm Matt Levine, and I write the money stuff column for Bloomberg Opinion.

我是凯蒂·格雷菲尔德，彭博新闻的记者兼彭博电视台的主持人。

And I'm Katie Greiffeld, a reporter for Bloomberg News and an anchor for Bloomberg Television.

凯蒂，我听说你对我们的关键ETF很着迷。

Katie, I gather that you're fascinated by our key TFs.

每天早上我躺在床上睁开眼，脑子里就想着心跳交易。没错。但这严格来说不算是心跳交易。

I open my eyes in the morning horizontal in bed and I just think about heartbeat trades. Yeah. But this isn't strictly a heartbeat.

我不太确定具体的界定标准是什么。

I don't know exactly what the qualification is.

看看资金流入流出的图表，确实像心跳一样起伏，但我不认为这里面涉及税务问题。

Look at the chart of inflows and outflows, it looks like a heartbeat, but I don't think that there are taxes involved.

这不是税务心跳，但算是另一种心跳？对。没错。ARK管理着一些ETF。凯茜·伍德，著名的

It's not a tax heartbeat, but is it a different kind of heartbeat? Yeah. Right. So ARK runs some ETFs. Cathie Wood, famous

听说过她。

Heard of her.

ETF，主动管理型。因为她就像科技投资界的名人，这些ETF能投资热门科技公司IPO，这已经很久没出现但正在回归。对吧？最近有些热门科技IPO，其中一些涨幅很大。所以这支ARK ETF能分到这些热门科技IPO的小额配售。

ETF, active manager. And because they're like active ETFs and because she's like a celebrity tech investor, they get to invest in hot tech IPOs, which hasn't been a thing for a long time but it's coming back. Right? There's been some hot tech IPOs, some of which have gone up a lot. And so this ARK ETF gets to get smallish allocations in some hot tech IPOs.

如果你认为这些IPO会上涨，你可能会想：哦，我想投资这支ARK ETF来获得一点点这方面的敞口。但如果你思维很缜密，你会觉得：我不想要这个ETF里的其他东西，只想要这个IPO的敞口。是的，我自己无法直接获得IPO敞口，因为我不在这些IPO的配售名单上。

And if you think those IPOs will go up, you'll be like, oh, I'd like to invest in this ARK ETF to get my tiny slice of exposure to that. But if you're really tidy minded about it, you're like, well, I don't want all the other stuff in this ETF. I just want this IPO exposure. Yeah. I can't get the IPO exposure myself because I am not on the list of people who get allocated shares on these IPOs.

但我可以通过ETF获得敞口，因为任何人都能投资ETF。进一步的想法是：我可以对冲掉ETF里其他所有资产的敞口

But I can get exposure to the ETF because anyone can get exposure to the ETF. And then the further thought you could have is I could hedge my exposure to everything else in the ETF

嗯。

Mhmm.

比如通过做空ETF当前持有的所有股票（这些持仓是公开的）。这样最终剩下的就是——如果你做多ETF同时做空ETF里所有股票，你剩下的就只有它可能获得IPO配售且该IPO上涨的机会。看起来有人在操作类似的交易。而执行这种交易的最佳方式不是买入ETF再做空股票，最佳方式是借入ETF成分股，交给ARK（即ETF管理人）来创建ETF份额。

By, you know, for instance shorting all of the stocks that are currently in the ETF, which it discloses. So that I'd be left with, you know, if you're long the ETF and short all of the stocks in the ETF, you're left only with, like, the possibility of it getting an IPO allocation and the IPO going up. And so it seems like people are doing some sort of trade like that. And the best way to operationalize that trade is not to buy the ETF and short the stocks. Best way to do it is to borrow all of the stocks that are in the ETF, deliver them to ARC, to the ETF, to create the ETF, get back shares of the ETF.

现在你持有ETF份额，实质上已做空底层股票（因为你借出股票给了ARK）。当IPO发生时，你平掉这个交易：归还ETF份额拿回成分股，再把成分股还给股票出借人，最后就只剩下暴涨的IPO收益。

Now you have the ETF and you're effectively short the underlying stocks because you borrowed them and, you know, gave them to ARC. And then when the IPO happens, you reverse the trade. You deliver back the shares, get back the underlying stuff, you deliver the underlying stuff back to your share lender, and you're left with only the popped IPO.

是的。我不明白的是，在ARK Innovation ETF中进行这样的操作风险有多大？我在想，进行这笔交易的人是否确定自己能分配到Klarna或Bullish的部分股份。

Yeah. I guess what I don't understand about this is how big of a gamble is it to do this in the ARK Innovation ETF? Like, I wonder if the person or whoever was behind this trade knew for sure that they're getting allocated some of Klarna or some of bullish.

我的印象是，在Bullish的案例中，ARK获得部分股份的消息相当明显，但我不确定。这类交易一直在进行，比如之前Bullish IPO时就有，上周Klarna也是如此。Robin Wigglesworth在《金融时报》上对此有过报道。但我的理解是，旗舰产品ARK Innovation ETF获得了Bullish的分配，而没有Klarna的份额。另一只ARK ETF则获得了Klarna的分配。

My impression is that in bullish, was pretty telegraphed that ARC was getting some of it, but I'm not sure. These are trades that have been going on and, like, they went on with the IPO of bullish a while back and then Klarna last week. And, Robin Wigglesworth at the Feet has been reporting about it. But, like, my impression is that the main the flagship ARK Innovation ETF got an allocation in bullish and not in Klarna. Another ARK ETF got an allocation in Klarna.

哦，ARK f。

Oh, ARK f.

对。所以人们确实这么做了。虽然没人确切知道，但这看起来就是这种交易模式。对吧？看起来流程是：你申购ETF份额，借入标的股票，次日赎回以套取IPO收益。

Yeah. So so like people did this. I mean, no one really knows, but it looks like this trade. Right? It looks like the trade is you heartbeat in, you like borrow the underlying shares, you heartbeat into the ETF, you take your stuff out the next day to capture the IPO.

看起来有人在Klarna IPO期间对ARK Innovation ETF这么操作过，但没有被指控。所以只是...错过了。风险其实不大，因为你基本上在做多和做空同一标的。

It looks like people did that with Arc Innovation around the Klarna IPO, and there was no allegation. And so I just, like, missed. It's not a huge risk because, you know, you're long and short the same thing, basically.

我只是好奇，我们是否会在其他热门主动型ETF中看到这种现象。

I'm just wondering, like, I wonder if we'll start to see this pop up in other sort of shiny active ETFs.

当然。不过我不知道有多少这类热门主动型ETF存在。

Sure. I don't know how many shiny active ETFs there.

数量不多，但确实有一些你可能会认为会被分配到的部分。

There's not a ton, but there's definitely some that you might think would get allocated.

是的。一般来说，指数基金不会购买IPO股票。

Yeah. Like in general, you know, index funds don't buy IPOs

没错。

Yeah.

因为它们不在指数里。所以你看不到传统ETF把这当作大事，但像凯茜·伍德这样的投资者，她投资的是那些有点投机性质的科技公司，她确实有理由对购买IPO感兴趣，也难怪有人会注意到这点并想着，我可以通过设计ARK ETF来实现自己的IPO分配策略。

Because they're not in the index. And so you don't see, you know, the traditional ETFs, you don't see this as a big thing but like someone like Cathie Wood who is an investor in Yeah. Sort of speculative tech companies, it does make sense that she would be interested in buying in IPOs and it does make sense that someone would notice that and be like, I can create my own I IPO allocation by, you know, engineering the ARC ETFs.

对。比如，就有专门投资IPO股票的ETF，专注于那些近期上市的股票。

Yeah. Because for example, there's an ETF dedicated just to buying IPO stocks, like recent IPO stocks.

但这根本毫无意义。

But Which accomplishes nothing whatsoever.

我知道。但是

I know. But The

这里的交易指的是IPO首日暴涨。对，这里的交易不是Klarna，也不是波兰的。

trade here is the IPO pop. Yes. Trade here is not Klarna. It's not the Polish.

这个

This

就是IPO首日暴涨。没错，就是那一天的行情。

It's the IPO pop. Yeah. It's the one day.

是啊，我觉得他们拿不到IPO配售。

Yeah. I don't think they're getting allocated IPOs.

是的。我是说，也许下一步就该这样了，对吧？比如你说：'嘿伙计们，把IPO份额都给我怎么样？'

It's Yeah. I mean, like, maybe that's the next step. Right? You're like, hey, guys. How about all the IPOs?

想让我配售IPO？但传统上获得IPO配售的方式是：第一，你是支付高额佣金给银行的大投资者；第二，你是与公司管理层建立良好关系的长期投资者。所以公司会说：'我希望这些人持有7%的股份，因此会在IPO中配售给他们。'嗯哼。然后你们就建立了良性关系——你作为长期持有者拥有股票，由于他们以IPO价格卖给你，你还能获得不错的市价收益。

Wanna allocate me an IPO? But then, know, traditionally, the way you get allocated an IPO is like, one, you are a big investor who pays a lot of commissions to a bank, and two, you are a long term investor who creates a good relationship with the management of the company. So the company is like, I want those people to own 7% of my stock, so I'm gonna allocate them in the IPO. Mhmm. And then like you have like a nice relationship where you are a long term holder, you own the stock, you have a nice mark to market gain because they sold you the stock at the IPO price.

这些才是银行和公司想在IPO中配售的对象。嗯哼。有些人专门买入新近IPO股票...对...等它们不再新鲜时就抛售，这种做法并不理想。

Those are the people that the banks and the companies want to allocate at the IPO. Mhmm. Someone whose businesses I buy recent IPOs Yeah. And then sell them when they're no longer recent, it's not that good.

是的。而且它也是一只规模较小的基金。

Yeah. And it's also a smaller fund.

我想大概是在，

I think it's in, like,

数亿美元的级别。

the hundreds of millions.

没错。比如，当你作为银行或公司分配IPO时，很多时候实际上就是坐下来对照名单逐一审核，觉得这些人靠谱就分配份额，懂吧？你肯定不希望名单上有上千个名字，最后变成‘哦，我们给这家伙50股’这样的情况对吧？

Right. Like, when you're a bank and a company and you're allocating the IPO, you're in many cases literally sitting down with a list and going through it and being like, these guys are good. Give it you know? And you don't wanna have a thousand names on that list and get to like, oh, we're gonna give this guy 50 shares. Right?

对，你得讲究效率。所以如果有大投资者，就直接给他一大块份额。就是这样。

Yeah. You wanna be efficient. Right? So if you have a big investor, give him a big big slug of shares. So right.

因为凯茜·伍德是名人，因为ARK创新ETF规模相当大，因为她长期支持某些公司，比如

Because Cathie Wood is a celebrity, because the ARK Innovation ETF is pretty big, because she is a long term supporter of, like, some of the company, like

她的五年投资周期理念。

Her five year time frame.

比如，她是一位值得持有的优质机构投资者，因此让她参与新股配售是合理的。没错。但并非所有主动型ETF都能

Like, she's a good institutional investor to have in your stock, and so it makes sense that she gets allocated to IPOs. Yeah. But it's not obvious that every active ETF would also

是啊。

Yeah.

获得同等好处。

Would have the same benefit.

我并未就此寻求评论，但确实好奇凯茜·伍德和ARK团队对这波操作有何看法。

This isn't something that I've sought comment on, but I do wonder how Kathy Wood and the ARC team feel about this trade.

噢，对。假设这波操作真如表面所见——有人大幅抬高了嗯...这些ETF的资产规模。

Oh, yeah. Like, assuming this trade is what it seems like, which is someone massively inflating Mhmm. The assets of these ETFs.

动辄数十亿美元。

By billions of dollars.

短短一周就注入数十亿美元，对...就为了攫取新股上市暴涨的大部分利润。对吧？比如ARKF这波操作，要知道它本是规模约10亿美元的ETF，有人却砸进了差不多7亿美元。比利，我可能记得有点出入。

By billions of dollars for, like, a week Yeah. In order to extract a large chunk of the IPO pop. Right? Like, the ARKF trade was, like, on the order of, like you know, it's like a 1 ish billion dollar ETF, and someone pumped in on the order of, like, $700,000,000. I might be a little wrong about that, Billy.

就像是那种情况。基本上相当于将ETF的规模扩大一倍。当你这样做时，你现在拥有ETF的一半份额，然后你取出资金，也就是取出ETF的一半。这也意味着你实质上取走了IPO股票的一半。对吧？

It's like that kind of thing. It's like, basically doubling the size of the ETF. When you do that, you now own half of the ETF, and then you take your money out, so you take out half of the ETF. It also means you take out half of essentially the IPO shares. Right?

嗯。所以这么做的人或这些人实际上是在为自己攫取IPO涨幅的一半。嗯。这意味着那些长期看好凯茜·伍德并投资于该ETF的散户投资者，无法获得那部分IPO涨幅。这部分收益直接流向了那些...是的。

Mhmm. So the person doing this or the people doing this are extracting kind of half of that IPO pop for themselves. Mhmm. Meaning that the long term retail investors who love Cathie Wood and are, you know, invested in the ETF don't get that half of the of the IPO pop. It just goes to someone who is Yeah.

只是在进行这种套利操作。所以他们应该对此感到愧疚。

Just doing this arbitrage. So they must feel bad about it.

是啊。

Yeah.

这并不好。这不是他们想要的。是的。他们确实额外提取了两天的管理费，但...

It's not good. It's not like what they want. Yeah. They do extract like an extra two days of management fees, but like

但他们能阻止这种情况吗？

Can they stop it though?

你知道，当我读到这个时，我就想，你打电话给他们说，我想投入10亿美元，然后你同意了，因为这就是ETF行业的常态。确实如此。ETF的意义就在于，人们可以创建和赎回份额。

You know, when I read about it, I was like, you called them up and you say, I'd like to pump a billion dollars in and you say yes because that's life in the ETF business. Like, it is. Yeah. That's the point of an ETF is like, people can create and redeem.

你无法获得它。

You can't gain it.

我认为，大多数ETF都有办法限制，你知道的，申购和赎回。

There is like, there are ways to I believe, you know, most ETFs like have ways to limit, you know, creations and redemptions.

我不确定。我的意思是，你无法阻止资金流入或流出，但并非每次流入或流出都必须导致申购或赎回。

I don't know. I mean, you can't stop money flowing in or out, but not every inflow or outflow has to result in a creation or redemption.

是的，确实如此。资金流入就是这样的。

Yes. It does. That's what an inflow is.

不。但人们常说这并不一定总会引发申购或赎回。

No. But people always say that it doesn't necessarily always create a creation or redemption.

那它会做什么呢？

What would it do?

比如，如果有足够多的人在互相抵消。

Like, if enough people are netting each other out.

是的。但净流入会带来份额的创设。

Yeah. But, like, net inflows create creations.

对，净流入。但我的意思是

Yeah. Net inflows. But I'm saying

他们无法阻止人们在交易所交易，但这不是交易所交易。这是份额创设。

They can't stop people trading on the exchange, but this is not a trade on the exchange. This is a creation.

好吧，明白了。

Yeah. Okay.

要让这个操作成立，必须是创设行为。具体来说，有人借入大量标的资产组合，交付给ETF，从而获得这些份额，这就是为什么...你看ETF资产会出现这种脉冲式增长。

Mean, for this to make sense, it's a creation. For this to make sense, someone has borrowed a big package of the underlying, delivered it to the ETF, and gotten out these shares, which is why Yeah. You see this heartbeat look where the assets of the ETF increase a lot.

有道理。那他们怎么限制这种操作？

Yeah. Okay. Fair. Okay. Then how would they limit that?

一种可能是，操作者要么是ETF授权参与人——比如与ARC有合作关系的机构，能够创设和赎回份额；要么是通过授权参与人运作的对冲基金。毕竟这属于创设行为，这些资产总得有人提供给ETF。

One answer is like, the person doing this is either an authorized participant in the ETF, like someone who has a relationship with ARC Yeah. Who can create and redeem shares, or they're like some hedge fund working through an authorized participant. Because again, you have to do a creation. So like, these assets are coming into the ETF from someone.

嗯。

Mhmm.

ETF可以说，嘿，别这么干了。否则你将失去授权参与者的资格。对吧？是的，这是一种相当直接的方法。

And the ETF can say, hey, knock that off Yeah. Or you'll stop being an authorized participant. Right? Yeah. That's one fairly straightforward approach.

我猜大多数ETF还有其他方法来限制创建，以避免规模过大，或者你知道的。

I assume most ETFs have some other way to, like, limit creations to avoid getting too big or, you know

我不确定他们是否这样做。我也不知道。最近有个例子，有个非常受欢迎的小盘股基金，代码CAF，最终更换了指数，因为我认为在某一点上，它的持仓占到了流通股的20%以上。

I don't know if they do. I don't know either. There was a recent example of this. You had this one very popular small cap funds, ticker CAF, which ended up switching indexes because I think at one point, like, for its holdings, it held, like, more than 20% of the outstanding shares.

你应该能阻止这种情况。

You should be able to stop that.

是的，但你做不到。你必须改变策略。是的。

Yeah. But you can't. Like, you have to, like, switch your strategy. Yeah.

我不确定他们能否阻止。我是说，他们目前还没做到。

I don't know if they can stop it. I mean, they haven't yet.

我也不知道。但你确实触及了一个事实，那就是这就是

I don't know either. But you do touch on the fact that this is This

问题的关键。ARK ETFs就像是现代说唱歌手，凯茜·伍德在运营一个投资基金。但同时，ETF也像是管道系统。对吧？我们之前讨论过债券市场上的组合交易。

is the thing. Like, the ARK ETFs are like a modern rapper for, like, Cathie Wood running an investment fund. But, like, also ETFs are plumbing. Right? And we've talked about, like, portfolio trades in the bond market.

对吧？ETF就像是一种管道工具，让人们可以进行债券交易。对吧？这就像是一种组合交易。对吧？

Right? Like, an ETF is, a piece of plumbing that allows people to do bond trades. Right? This is like a portfolio trade. Right?

这就像是一个小工具，你可以拆解它，然后说，我要从这个ETF中提取IPO的价值。所以你可以直接操作，它在股市中独立运行，有自己的一套规则。凯茜·伍德在积极管理它，但它不完全是她的投资工具，它也是市场的

This is like it's a widget that you can take down and be like, I'm gonna extract the IPO value out of this ETF. And so you can just do it, and it just operates independently in the stock market and has its own set of rules. Like, you know, Cathie Wood is actively managing it, but it's like, it's not purely her investment vehicle. It's also this like, you know, property

一部分。对，对。这种看法很有趣，它基本上就是一种组合交易，只不过是在股票市场。

of the market. Yeah. Yeah. That's an interesting way to look at it that it's basically just a portfolio trade but in equities.

这几乎是一种反向的组合交易。对吧？组合交易就像是你有一堆债券，然后去找做市商说，我想卖掉这堆债券。做市商可能会说，我可能能把大部分塞进ETF里，剩下的我接手。你可以把你的东西塞进这些ETF里。

It's almost the reverse of a portfolio trade. Right? A portfolio trade is like you have a bunch of bonds and you go to a market maker and you're like, I wanna sell this bunch of bonds. And the market maker is like, well, I can probably squeeze most of them into an ETF, and I'll take the rest. And you can sort of, like, squeeze your stuff into these.

对。这里的情况是，你想从ETF中精确提取一只证券。这是组合交易的反向操作。

Yep. Here, it's like Yeah. You wanna extract exactly one security from the ETF. And it's the reverse of the portfolio.

我只要那根针，别管那些干草堆了。

I want the needle. Forget about all the hay.

没错，你直接行动就行。

Yeah. And you can just do it.

对，我正想说你也提到了这其实是个有趣的侦探游戏——究竟是谁在幕后操作？而且嫌疑人的范围肯定很小。

Yeah. I was gonna say you do touch on the fact that this is a fun whodunit. Like, who is doing this? And it has to be a fairly small universe of potential suspects.

在我看来，最有可能的是那些获准直接与基金交易的授权参与者。不过这样可能太针锋相对了，也可能是通过授权参与者进行交易的某人。

It seems to me that the most logical person to do it would be one of the authorized participants who can trade directly with the fund. Yeah. But maybe that's like a little too confrontational, and it's like someone trading through an authorized participant.

让我想想，我不想直接点名。但看看Arc的备案文件，他们的授权参与者或者说最活跃的参与者包括哈德逊河、简街、荷兰银行、美国银行、法国巴黎银行、Virtu等等。所以

Let's see. I don't wanna name names necessarily. But, I mean, you look at some of Arc's filings, it looks like their APs or at least the busiest APs are Hudson River, Jane Street, ABN AMRO, Bank of America, BNP, Virtu, etcetera. So

是啊，都是些老面孔。

Right. The normal people.

总之，如果你是Arc交易背后的操盘手

Anyway, if you're the one behind the arc trade

对。我

Right. I

在彭博网的money pod上感受到了。

feel money pod at Bloomberg dot net.

我觉得到了这个阶段，这个传闻已经相当广泛流传并受到赞誉。如果有人想邀功的话，他们早就该跳出来说‘没错，是我们干的’。我觉得不邀功可能是有原因的。而且，这很容易被模仿。

I feel like at this point, like, this has been pretty widely rumored and, like, praised. And if someone was going to claim credit for that, they would have been like, yeah. We did that. I feel like there's probably some reason not to claim credit for it. Also, it's like imitatable.

对吧？现在谁都能做到。

Right? Like, now anyone can do it.

确实如此。

That's true.

我不知道还有多少机会能这么做。

I don't know how many opportunities there'll be to do it.

感觉像是费了很大劲却得不到足够的回报，不过我也不确定。

Seems like a lot of squeezing for not like enough juice, but I don't know.

你知道，这就像几天的股票借贷成本

You know, it's like a few days of stock borrow cost

是啊。

Yeah.

潜在收益可能只有几千万美元。这是真实存在的。不过我得说，如果要我猜的话，这交易之所以变得刺激，是因为那批IPO股票突然暴涨了100%。对。然后他们真的在波兰的IPO上这么做了，效果不错，Klarna的表现也还可以。

For potentially, like low tens of millions of dollars of gains. It's like it's it's real. I will say though that like like if I had to guess, would say that like this trade became exciting when there was that rash of IPOs that like went up a 100%. Yeah. And then like they actually did it on like Polish IPO which did well and Klarna which did fine.

然后，我想我们讨论过这个。今年早些时候的IPO之所以暴涨，是因为大家已经好几年没见过IPO了。

And then, I think we talked about this. Like, the the IPOs earlier this year had the huge pops because like no one had seen an IPO in years.

哇哦。

Woo hoo.

但现在呢，比如这周StubHub上市就跌了，对吧？所以如果你不指望每只IPO都能翻倍，这交易现在就没那么刺激了。

And now it's like, yeah, you know, like StubHub went public this week and went down. Right? So it's not it's not as exciting a trade now if, like, you're not expecting a 100% pop in every IPO.

确实如此。也许这只是昙花一现的美好时刻，但继续观察这种趋势是否会持续和扩散会很有趣。

That's true. So maybe it was just a brief sweet moment in time, but it'll be fun to see if this continues and if it spreads.

全球工业复兴正在重塑产业格局并改变我们的世界。未来十年间，能源、基础设施和技术等领域预计需要75至100万亿美元的资本支出来实现现代化并满足日益增长的需求。这一空前规模的投资已超出公开市场的承受范围。长期项目需要长期资本支持，而这正是私募资本的用武之地。

The global industrial renaissance is transforming industries and reshaping our world. Over the next decade, sectors like energy, infrastructure, and technology will require an estimated $75 to $100,000,000,000,000 in capex to modernize and meet the growing demand. This unprecedented level of investment is beyond the scope of public markets alone. Long term projects need long duration capital. That's where private capital comes in.

而这正是阿波罗公司引领的领域。凭借雄厚规模、适应不断变化的资本支出需求的灵活性，以及对推动经济增长的坚定承诺，我们正与企业合作提供助力未来的融资解决方案。了解更多请访问thinkitnew.com/renaissance。

And that's where Apollo leads. With significant scale, the flexibility to adapt to evolving CapEx needs, and a steadfast focus on enabling economic growth, we're partnering with companies to provide the financing solutions that fuel the future. Learn more at thinkitnew.com/renaissance.

如今，人工智能能帮你撰写邮件、总结冗长会议，甚至制作令最挑剔客户惊艳的演示文稿。但您可知道工业AI如何通过数据与仿真提升车间生产力？西门子加速器提供的AI工具能解读机器语言，助您拓展业务。您可通过单一可信的数字商业平台获取AI服务、软件与咨询，更无需筛选数百家供应商即可找到理想AI合作伙伴。

These days, AI can help you write emails, summarize long meetings, and even create presentations that impress your most demanding customer. But how about industrial AI that uses data and simulation to boost productivity on the shop floor? AI tools that help you understand machine language AI that helps you grow your business with Siemens accelerator. You can use AI services, software and consulting from a single trusted digital business platform. Plus you can find the right AI partner without having to search through hundreds of providers.

这就是工业AI全球市场领导者西门子加速器带来的真实AI力量。了解更多请访问siemens.us/accelerator。

That's AI for real from the global market leader in industrial AI. Siemens Accelerator. Learn more at siemens.us/accelerator.

每家企业都始于一个构想。如何从空想家蜕变为行业领袖？亚马逊企业购加速您的成长之旅。通过智能商业采购，在您熟悉的平台获取办公用品、IT设备及维修工具等发展所需的一切。亚马逊企业购不仅延续您熟知喜爱的亚马逊购物体验，更提供节约成本工具与数据洞察决策支持。

Every business starts with an idea. How can you go from daydreamer to industry leader? Amazon Business accelerates your journey. With Smart Business Buying, get everything you need to grow in one familiar place, from office supplies to IT essentials and maintenance tools. Amazon Business takes the buying experience you know and love from Amazon, plus tools that help you save costs and make insights based decisions.

准备好将愿景变为现实了吗？立即登录amazonbusiness.com了解详情。

Ready to bring your visions to life? Learn how at amazonbusiness.com.

你们都知道我主持一档财经新闻电视节目吧？

So you know how I anchor a financial news TV show?

我听到了一些传言。

I've heard rumors.

好吧。其实这是个惊喜。我离开这个房间后就会做这件事。这叫做收盘时段，每天下午3点到5点。

Okay. Well, surprise. That's what I do when I leave this room. It's called the close. It's from three to 5PM daily.

这不仅仅是插播广告。我提到这个是因为通常在收盘钟声后，公司会发布财报。由于美国遵循季度财报制度，这意味着几乎总有财报新闻可以即时播报，这很令人兴奋。我期待这个环节，但或许现在一年只做两次，而不是四次了。

This isn't just a plug. I bring it up because after the closing bell, usually companies report their earnings. And because The US follows a quarterly earnings schedule, that means that there's almost always earnings to break on air, which is exciting. And I look forward to it, but maybe now instead of doing that four times a year, I'll only do it twice a year.

这样你就有更多时间陪你的马了。或者不是。更多时间...比如在节目上消磨更多时间。对，不像现在这样。

More time with your horse. That's Or no. More time, like, more time on just killing time on air. Yeah. Unlike now.

我提起这件事。

I bring this up.

是啊。你提起是因为

Yeah. You bring it up because

特朗普总统。

President Trump.

特朗普就这么随意地冒出来说

Trump is just randomly out there being like

是啊。

Yeah.

嘿，如果美国证券交易委员会同意，我们可以把公司财报周期从每季度一次改为半年一次。

Hey. If the SEC wants to, we could move to six month reporting for companies instead of reporting every three months.

我惊讶他居然关心这个。

I'm surprised he cares.

懂我意思吗？有人跟他提了一嘴，他就在Truth上发了文。谁知道呢。

You know? Someone mentioned it to him, so he truthed about it. I don't know.

这根本就不是

It just just Not

他真心在乎的那种关心。

that he cares cares.

这对他来说似乎是个冷门问题。

It seems like a off the beaten track issue for him.

他上个任期尝试过

He tried it last term

确实。

He did.

那还是在单一行政权之前。在整体格局中关注这个确实奇怪。是啊。但这微幅增加了权力并减少了对企业高管的监督。对吧？

Back before the unitary executive. It is an odd thing to care about in the scheme of things. Yeah. But it marginally increases the power and reduces the oversight over corporate executives. Right?

嗯。

Mhmm.

比如如果只需每半年报告一次，你就有更多时间在无人关注时操作。对高管们的生活方式可能挺有利的。

Like if you only have to report every six months, then you have more time to do stuff without anyone paying attention to it. Yeah. It's probably good for like the lifestyle of corporate executives.

其实我想说，我喜欢这个话题因为我真能理解双方立场。季度报告制度方面，投资者喜欢透明度，这是被验证过的。我们应尽可能获取更多信息。但另一方面，三个月周期是武断的，我认同这在某种程度上会助长短视思维。

Well, was gonna say I love this topic because I can honestly see both sides of the One being, okay. The quarterly reporting schedule, investors like transparency. That's been proven. We should have as much information as we possibly can. But then on the other side, three months is arbitrary, and I could be persuaded that it does incentivize shorter term thinking on some level.

是的，我经常思考这个问题。比如，并没有必然的理由说每季度报告就会助长短视思维。认为投资者只关心下个季度的收益，这种想法本身就是错误的，对吧？

Yeah. I think a lot about this. Like, there's no, like, necessary reason that reporting every three months should encourage shorter term thinking. Like, it's just like a mistake to think that investors only care about next quarter's earnings. Right?

而且，报告周期越短，他们就越不关心长期发展——这根本不成立。公司每季度发布财报、提供业绩指引时，也会披露长期投资计划，市场是能理解这点的。

And, like, the shorter the reporting cycle, then, like, the less long term they'll care about. Like, that can't be true. Right? Like, companies report every three months, report guidance, and they report, like, you know, their investments for the long term. And, like, people understand that

我觉得你过于乐观了。

I think you're being really generous.

人人都爱说美股市场只奖励短期思维。知道谁最爱说这话吗？是埃隆·马斯克。他可是拥有万亿市值公司的人，而且这家公司长期亏损时市值照样很高。

Like, everyone loves to say that The US stock market only rewards short term thinking. And, like, you know who really loves to say that? It's Elon Musk. Yeah. Who's, like, got a, you know, trillion dollar company and did for a long time before it made money.

对吧？即便现在，特斯拉的估值完全建立在'未来机器人'这种概念上。认为美股只在乎下季度收益根本不符合事实。

Right? And, like, even now, its valuation is entirely based on, like, oh, robots in the future. Yeah. It's just, like, false to think that The US stock market only cares about next quarter's earnings. Right?

确实没理由这么想。不过季度财报确实会引发波动，人们会根据当季表现推算未来——如果这季度糟糕，大家就会怀疑长期盈利能力。

Yeah. There's there's just like no reason to think that. Now Yeah. It is the case that like there is volatility around quarterly earnings. Right?

高频数据点确实存在，但逻辑上不等于每季度报告就会让人只关注三个月表现。市场会通过当季数据推测长期趋势，但不会因此就忽视战略布局，对吧？

Like people do look at quarterly earnings and use them as a data point to extrapolate future earnings. If you have bad earnings this quarter, people are, oh, maybe they're not gonna have good earnings in the long run. Right? And so like there are like high frequency data points, but it's not logically entailed that like if you report every three months, then people only pay attention to three month earnings. Right?

这显然就是事实

And that's clearly the case that

是的，确实如此

Yeah. It does

长期押注正在进行

long term bets get made.

没错。这确实会给股价带来波动。你可能会看到一位CEO在财报电话会议上被刁难，然后采取行动来尽量减少这种情况。

Yeah. It just does introduce volatility into the stock price. And you could see a CEO who's, you know, getting beaten up on his earnings call maybe doing things to minimize that.

是的。但他或她的财报电话会议。克里夫·纳苏斯关于波动性转移的观点是说...嗯...你知道，如果你有一项不每天按市价调整的私人投资，从某种意义上说，它比大多数公开股票波动性更小。确实如此。

Yes. But His or her earnings call. Kliff Nasus's point about volatility laundering where Mhmm. You know, if you have a private investment that doesn't get mark to market every day, It is in some sense less volatile than most public stocks. Yeah.

但仅仅是因为你没有每天查看，对吧？

But only in the sense that you don't look every day, right?

是的。

Yeah.

这并不意味着经济波动性降低。只是你每天看到一件物品的价格变动，而另一件物品的价格变动却不常被注意到。是的，这有点像如果停止公布盈利报告，盈利波动性就会减少，新闻驱动的波动也会减少。但你只是在掩盖实际发生的情况。

Like it's not economically less volatile. It's just like you see the price of one thing every day and you don't see the price of the other thing every day. Yeah. It's a little like that where like if you just stop reporting earnings, then you have less earnings volatility, you have less news driven volatility. But you're just masking like what is actually happening.

另外，我不确定股价波动性是否会减少，对吧？因为交易仍在进行。如果确切的财务报表和指导方针改为每六个月而非每三个月公布一次，那么在这六个月内，人们的交易将基于其他信息。

And the other thing is like I'm not sure you get less stock price volatility, right? Yeah. Because you have you still have trading, right? It's just like if definitive financial statements and and like, you know, guidance get reported every six months instead of every three months, then you have a six month window where people are trading based on other stuff.

对吧？肢体语言。

Right? Body language.

肢体语言。电视露面。电视露面、谣言。人们大量讨论替代数据。像复杂的对冲基金就不断利用季度财务报表以外的信息，来构建他们对公司运营状况的模型。

Body language. TV appearances. TV appearances, rumor. People talk a ton about alternative data. Like sophisticated hedge funds are constantly using information other than quarterly financial statements to build their models of like how a company is doing.

对吧？他们查看信用卡数据，或是著名的停车场卫星图片来估算客流量。如果减少季度财务报告，这些数据将变得相对更有价值。是的，它们依然存在。

Right? They're, you know, looking at credit card data or famously satellite pictures of parking lots to see how many people are coming to the stores. And if you get rid of some of the quarterly financial reporting, then those pieces of data will be relatively more valuable. Yeah. They will still exist.

对冲基金仍会据此交易，但普通投资者不会。对吧？这将导致更大的信息不对称，因为部分人能获取公司运营信息，而其他人则不能。

Hedge funds will still trade on them, but like you won't. Right? Yeah. Like it'll be there'll be a lot more information asymmetry because some people will have information about how companies are doing and other people won't. Yeah.

此外，六个月内可能发生的另一种交易是内幕交易。因为新闻公布间隔时间越长，进行内幕操作的机会就越多。

And then the other kind of trading that could happen in six months is insider trading. Right? Because like the more time you have between announcing news, the more opportunity there is to

哪一个会

Which would

从你自己了解新闻开始。

from knowing the news yourself.

这对这个播客来说会很棒。

That'd be great for this podcast.

看。我这里有

Look. I there's

对我的电视节目来说，收益报告减少可不是好事。但是

It wouldn't be great for my TV show having fewer earnings reports. But

还有更多的内幕交易。是啊，让内幕交易者上节目会很有趣。

And more insider trading. Yeah. It'd be fun to have the insider traders on.

我喜欢想象这种情况成真，美国转向公司只需每六个月报告一次，然后想想会发生什么。因为在欧洲，他们被规定只需每六个月报告一次，但许多公司仍提交季度报告。是的，我想知道那些更频繁报告的公司是否会因此从投资者那里得到回报，是否会看到公司因此做出调整，以及这会带来什么样的心理影响。比如，如果你从季度报告转为半年报告，你知道，那会不会被认为是，哦，糟糕。

I like to imagine that this goes through, that The US moves to companies only needing to report every six months and think about what that would happen. Because in Europe, they are mandated to only report every six months, but many still file quarterly reports. Yeah. I wonder if the companies who report more frequently would get rewarded for that from investors, whether you would see companies, like, switch around and what the psychological effect would be from that. Like, if you were reporting on a quarterly basis and then went to a six month basis, you know, would that be taken as, oh, shoot.

有个坏消息要来了，他们正在拖延公布。

There's bad news coming, and they're delaying it.

是啊。想象一下，如果你是家普通公司，要降低财报频率其实挺难的，对吧？比如谁会选择半年报一次？有些就像特朗普兄弟支持的加密资产库公司那样。

Yeah. Like, think if you're a normal company, it's a little hard to reduce the frequency of your reporting. Right? Mean, think that you think about who would report six months. Like, some of it is like, you know, Trump brothers backed crypto treasury companies.

对吧？就像那种情况

Right? Where it's like

本质上就是美国比特币。

American Bitcoin, basically.

我认为另一个原因是，现在成为美国上市公司负担太重了，所以很多牛逼的科技初创企业选择更长时间保持私有化，普通人没法通过401k账户之类的投资它们。假如你去问Sam Altman：要不要让OpenAI上市？他可能说'哦我得每季度交报告'，而你说'不用，好消息是——'

I do think another part of the answer is, like, part of the reason people talk about this is some form of, like, it is too burdensome to be a US public company these days, and that is part of why big cool tech startups are staying private longer and, you know, ordinary people can't invest in them in their $4.00 1 k's and all that stuff. And so it is possible that, like, if you went to like Sam Altman and you were like, hey, would you take OpenAI public? And he was like, oh, I have to report every quarter. And you're like, no. Good news.

你只需要半年报一次。他可能就会答应。虽然边际效益有限，但确实有些酷炫的初创公司会觉得，节省报告成本、减少股东干预频率后，上市变得更有吸引力了。

You only have to report every six months. You might be like, okay, fine. I'll do it. Right? Like, I think it's a pretty marginal benefit, but there's probably some quite cool tech startup that would feel like, you know, by saving money on reporting costs and also by just having less frequent reporting and less frequent, like, shareholder interference, it would, like, change the bargain of whether or not it's a good idea to go public.

对吧？所以会有新上市公司选择半年报制度。

Right? Yeah. So, like, some new public companies would report on a six month schedule.

关于这一点，纳斯达克首席执行官阿迪娜·弗里德曼在领英上发文表示，他们支持减轻上市公司负担的改革。因为，你知道，这个理由经常被用来解释为何企业选择保持私有化。

Well, to that point, Adena Friedman, who is the CEO of Nasdaq, posted on LinkedIn basically that they supported the reforms to reduce the burden on public companies. Because, I mean, you have heard that trotted out as a reason Right. For why companies are staying private.

我总觉得难以想象，比如让会计师每季度做报表的成本，会是让Stripe保持私有的原因。但特丽莎，某种程度上这或许确实成立。我说Stripe对吧？实际上问题在于中小型企业上市本身就困难。

It's always hard for me to imagine that, like, the costs of like having your accountants do your reports every three months is what's giving, you know, Stripe private. But like I do there's probably at some margin that's probably true, Trish. And I say Stripe. Right? But like, in fact, like the problem is that it is hard for smallish companies to go public.

是的。这可能确实能节省可观的成本。

Yeah. And this is perhaps a material cost savings.

没错。我们需要更多小型上市公司。

Yeah. We need more small caps.

对于大型上市公司来说，改成半年报是一回事；但对准备上市的中小企业而言，如果只提供半年报，大家会说'好吧，没问题'，这又是另一回事了。

And the sort of thing where it's one thing for a big existing public company to say, okay. We're going to six month reporting, but it's another thing for a smallish company to come public because they're only gonna report every six months, and everyone's like, okay. That's fine.

是的。我之前断言投资者喜欢信息透明是个事实。但现在投资透明度呈现两极分化——比如ETF之所以完胜共同基金，正是因为人们喜欢看到每日持仓。但转头看私募市场，投资者又似乎很乐意大举投入。

Yeah. I sort of stated it as a fact that investors like information and want transparency. But I do think there's this transparency barbell that's developed for investors where you think about ETFs, for example. And part of the reason why ETFs have just killed mutual funds is because people like to see the daily holdings. But then you think about what's going on in private markets, and folks seem perfectly happy to try and plow into that.

所以实际上，我不能断言'投资者渴望尽可能多的信息'是个绝对事实。

So I don't actually think that I can state it as a fact that investors like as much information as possible.

投资者有不同的类型，对吧？我的意思是，像那些做出投资决策的主动资产管理人，他们希望基于充分信息来做决定。嗯哼，对吧？

Well, there's different kinds of investors. Right? I mean, like, active asset managers who are making investing decisions want to make informed investing decisions. Mhmm. Right?

但事实并非如此，对吧？我是说，如果我们一直在谈论散户对SpaceX、Stripe和OpenAI的热爱，这些人根本不会定期收到财务报表。对吧？那就像是说，好吧我相信你。对吧？

But no, right. I mean, like, if we talk all the time about, like, the retail love for SpaceX and Stripe and OpenAI and, like, those people aren't getting financial statements at any frequency. Right? That's just like, sure I trust you. Right?

所以这是有道理的。

So that makes sense.

如今，人工智能能帮你写邮件、总结冗长的会议，甚至制作让最挑剔客户眼前一亮的演示文稿。但利用数据和模拟提升车间生产力的工业AI呢？能解读机器语言的AI工具，以及通过西门子加速器助你业务增长的AI。你可以通过单一可信的数字商业平台获取AI服务、软件和咨询。还能无需筛选数百家供应商就找到合适的AI合作伙伴。

These days, AI can help you write emails, summarize long meetings, and even create presentations that impress your most demanding customer. But how about industrial AI that uses data and simulation to boost productivity on the shop floor? AI tools that help you understand machine language AI that helps you grow your business with Siemens accelerator. You can use AI services, software and consulting from a single trusted digital business platform. Plus you can find the right AI partner without having to search through hundreds of providers.

这就是工业AI全球市场领导者西门子加速器带来的真实AI体验。了解更多请访问siemens.us/accelerator。

That's AI for real from the global market leader in industrial AI Siemens Accelerator. Learn more at siemens.us/accelerator.

如何让团队从耗时的事务性工作中解放？亚马逊企业购不仅帮助管理者简化采购流程，更能为团队提供有力支持。智能商业采购工具让买家快速找到并购买所需物品，从而专注于战略与增长。是时候解放团队，着眼未来了。了解更多技术、洞察与支持，请访问amazonbusiness.com。

How can you free your team from time consuming office tasks? Amazon Business empowers leaders to not only streamline purchasing, but better support their teams. Smart business buying tools enable buyers to find and purchase items fast so they can focus on strategy and growth. It's time to free up your teams and focus on your future. Learn more about the technology, insights, and support available at amazonbusiness.com.

在GSK，我们专注于为患者做正确的事。我们相信患者应该自由地专注于所爱之事，尤其是当他们与癌症等疾病共存时。因此我们聚焦于能产生最大影响的领域——为合适的患者匹配精准的治疗方案。GSK正开创性地研发抗体药物偶联物等先进技术，精准靶向攻击癌细胞。通过融合科学、技术与人才，我们不懈努力，携手领先癌症治疗。

At GSK, our focus is on doing the right thing for patients. We believe they should be free to focus on doing what they love, especially when they're living with a disease like cancer. That's why we focus where we can make the biggest difference matching the right treatment with the right patient. At GSK, we're pioneering advanced technologies like antibody drug conjugates that precisely target and attack cancer cells. By uniting science, technology and talent, we work tirelessly to stay ahead of cancer together.

访问gsk.com发现更多内容。

Visit gsk.com to discover more.

我们有七分钟时间

We have seven minutes

好的。

Okay.

来聊聊结构化产品，以及这场热潮。是的，我们

To talk about structured products, and what a boom Yeah. We're

我不确定。但我热爱结构化产品。

I don't know. I love structured products.

我知道你喜欢。为什么不像你这样的人也会爱上结构化产品？比如，为什么会出现这种热潮？是我们太无聊了吗？标普500指数还不够吗？

I know you do. Why do people who aren't you love structured products? Like, why are we seeing this boom? Are we just bored? Is the S and P 500 not enough?

结构化产品绝非无聊之物。它们更像是讲故事。最简单的结构化产品，我心目中的典范产品是这样的：如果你给我100美元，我可以用大约95美元买国债。嗯，96美元左右。

The structured products aren't aren't boredom. They're they're like storytelling. Like, the simplest structured product, the structured product that I think of is like the paradigm structured product is like, if you give me a $100, I can take $95 give or take and buy a treasury bill. Mhmm. $96.

好的。

Okay.

你可以买国库券，对吧？到期时会变成100美元，在

You can buy a treasury bill. Right? That will mature at a $100 in a

一年后。对。

year. Right.

然后我有4美元可以拿来做些奇怪的事，对吧？嗯。最简单的奇怪事就是花掉这4美元，比如买一个标普指数的平价看涨期权，对吧？

And then I have $4 to do something weird with. Right? Mhmm. Simplest weird thing is I spend those $4, I'm like, an at the money call option on the S and P. Right?

所以我跟你说，如果你给我100美元，我会在一年后按标普指数的回报率返还你一部分，或者设定一个上限之类的，但无论如何我都会还你100美元本金。就算标普指数暴跌50%，你依然能拿回全部的钱。

And so I say to you, if you give me a $100, I'll give you back some percentage of the return of the S and P or like, this is return of the S and P up to some cap or something in a year, but I'll always give you your $100 back. If the S and P crashes 50%, you still get all your money back.

明白了。

Okay.

但你能享受标普指数的上涨收益，对吧？我做的不过是买了个看涨期权加国库券。然后你会觉得：哇，这股票永远不会下跌。

But you get S and P upside. Right? And all I've done is I bought a call option, I bought a treasury bill. And you're like, oh, wow. Stocks that can never go down.

对吧？所以我时不时会写这个。那是最简单的结构化产品。它不像当前热潮中的主流结构化产品。但就像那个故事说的，你要把钱给我。

Right? And so I write about this periodically. That's the simplest structured product. That's not like the main structured product of the current boom. But like that story of like, you're gonna give me money.

我会把大部分资金存入国库券，剩下的用来购买奇怪的期权，给你一个诡异的收益曲线。嗯。要知道，有些人的工作就是坐在实验室里设计这类东西，而另一些人则负责给它们包装一个好听的故事。所以我们讨论的是彭博那篇关于结构化产品热潮的重磅报道，里面提到美国约半数结构化产品是自动赎回型。是的。

I'm gonna park boast of them t bills, and I'm gonna use the rest to buy weird options to give you like some weird payoff profile. Mhmm. You know, there are people whose job is to sit in a lab cooking up that sort of thing, and then there are other people whose job is to like put a nice story on that. So we're talking about this like Bloomberg big take about the boom instruction products, and they talk about, like, half of structured products in America are auto callables. Yeah.

自动赎回型产品是银行向散户投资者购买的分期看跌期权

An auto callable is an installment put purchased by a bank

没错。

Yes.

对吧？所以你看，作为银行，如果有很多客户想从你这买指数看跌期权，你会想：我上哪儿弄这些期权呢？然后你走进实验室说：我需要设计一个分期指数看跌期权产品来采购。也许可以向保险公司或伯克希尔哈撒韦这类公司购买。

From retail investors. Right? And so, you know, if you're a bank, like, you have a lot of people who wanna buy index puts from you, and you're like, where will I get index puts? And you go to the lab and you're like, I would like to cook up an installment index put product that I can buy from somebody. Maybe I could buy it from, like, an insurance company or Berkshire Hathaway or something.

但转念一想：不，我可以直接从散户那里买。只要不说'我要向你购买分期指数看跌期权'，而是说'我要卖给你年息10%的债券'，效果就完全不同了。

And then you're like, no. No. I can buy it from retail investors. If instead of saying, I'm gonna buy an installment index put from you, you say, I'm gonna sell you a bond that pays you 10% interest. It's amazing.

这款产品每季度支付10%利息——除非股市上涨导致提前赎回（即自动触发）。还有个陷阱：如果股市下跌20%，你就会血本无归。

And it pays you 10% interest every quarter unless the stock market goes up, in which case I pay it off early. And then no problem. It's auto called. Right? One other catch is that if the stock market goes down 20%, you lose all the money.

哦，不。对。那只是分期付款的设置。对吧？但与其那么说，你可以说这是一张支付高额息票的票据，在特定情况下会提前赎回，并在某些情况下承担股市的损失。

Oh, no. Right. That's just an installment put. Right? But, like, instead of saying that, you say this is a note that pays a very high coupon, gets called early in certain circumstances, and it's the losses of the stock market in certain circumstances.

对吧？就像，那是个很棒的交易。你不是在贩卖兴奋感，而是在兜售——看，你每年能拿10%，稳赚不赔。

Right? Like, that's like a great trade. It's like, you're not selling excitement. You're selling, look, you get 10% a year. You can't lose.

最坏的情况可能就是提前赎回，没问题。

Worst thing that happens probably is you get paid off early. No problem.

没问题。

No problem.

但也有其他反向产品，比如股市下跌我们就付钱给你。对吧？因为你可以把任何期权组合塞进这个产品里。于是你就有无限的故事和收益结构可以卖给散户投资者，这篇文章引用了一位理财顾问的话，他的客户对他说，这听起来像非法的，好得不像真的。

But then there are other products too that are like the reverse that are like we pay you if the stock market goes down. Right? Because you put any set of options into this thing. And so you have like this unlimited range of like stories and payoff structures that you can sell to retail investors and this article quotes a guy, like a financial advisor, saying that his client said to him, this sounds illegal. It sounds too good to be true.

是啊。因为你想，为什么我们会看到这类产品爆发？结构化产品主要分两种。

Yeah. Because you could like, you know, like, why are we seeing a boom in it? There are two kinds of structured products.

继续。

Go on.

他们在卖出期权和买入期权，对吧？嗯。所以，自动可赎回产品就像是银行从客户那里买入期权。我一开始提到的那个产品，就像是你能获得标普指数的收益，但不能下跌。

They're selling options and buying options. Right? Mhmm. So, like, the auto callable is like the bank is buying an option from the customer. The one that I started with, they're like, you get the S and P, but you can't go down.

那是银行在向客户卖出期权。嗯。我最初说的那个产品，只有当你能够以远低于100美元的价格买入国库券时才能运作，因为那样你才有钱去买期权。对，是吧？

That's the bank is selling an option to the customer. Mhmm. This thing I started with, that only works if you can buy a treasury bill for significantly less than a $100 because then you have money to buy options with. Yeah. Right?

所以在利率极低的环境下，很难做出真正酷炫的结构性产品，因为你没有太多可操作的余地。

So like in a very low interest rate environment, it is hard to do really cool structured products because you just don't have a lot of like

我觉得这很令人兴奋。

I find that exciting.

和什么一起工作？

Work with?

因为理论上我们现在已经进入了一个降息周期。

Because we've now entered theoretically a rate cutting cycle.

是的。所以也有反向操作的产品，对吧？比如在利率低的时候，去告诉客户'我每年付你8%'会很吸引人。而实现这8%的方式并不是通过利息。

Yeah. So There are such products the other way. Right? Where like if rates are low, it's very exciting to go to a customer and say, I'll pay you 8% a year. And the way you get 8% a year is it's not interest.

这是期权溢价。

It's option premium.

对吧？

Right?

所以针对所有市场环境都有相应的产品。

So there are certain products for all environments.

是啊。我觉得这很有趣。他们还引用了某人的话，说结构化产品不是被买走的，而是被推销出去的。这话适用于无数事物，但用在这里也很贴切。

Yeah. Do think it's interesting. They also quote someone in here saying that, you know, structured products aren't bought. They're sold. That could apply to a myriad of things, but it also applies here.

人们在金融领域对很多很多事物都这么说，但我觉得最常被这样评价的就是结构化票据。

People say that about many, many, many things in finance, but I think they most say it about structured notes.

他们在这里就是这个意思。没错。但有趣的是现在你有了

And they mean it here. Yeah. But what's interesting is that now you have

因为没有一个散户投资者会主动说，你知道吗，我想做的是向银行出售分期看跌期权。

Because no one no retail investor is like, you know what I would like to do is sell installment puts to a bank.

嗯，现在你们有了一款自动可赎回ETF。它于六月推出。理论上，市场上存在自行购买这类产品的投资者，他们未必需要通过顾问渠道获取。

Well, now you have an auto callables ETF. It launched in June. So there are theoretically investors out there who are just buying this on their own, who aren't necessarily having it being

被推销购买。顾问推销的ETF。

sold to them. Advisor sold ETF.

没错。但现在它的存在意味着你不再需要顾问向你推销这款产品。

Yeah. But it now exists where you don't need to have an advisor sell this to you.

你可以查看产品说明，上面写着'能获得10%收益率'之类的。

You could go out the description of that, and it's like, oh, you got a 10% yield. Yeah.

确实如此。或许你会把它输入Investopedia查清楚什么是自动可赎回。

That's true. Maybe you plug it into Investopedia and figure out what an is.

这可是10%的收益率啊。

This is a 10% yield. Yeah.

我敢肯定有很多人就是按收益率排序来选产品的。

I'm sure there are plenty of folks who just sort by yield.

对，对，收益率是10%。

Right. Right. It's a 10% yield.

别担心剩下的部分。

Don't worry about the rest of it.

关于结构化债务，我觉得另一个有趣的点是，比如自动可赎回业务，就像是银行从散户那里购买崩盘保险。

The other thing I think is interesting about structured debts is like, I think of like the auto callables business as banks buying crash insurance from retail.

嗯。

Mhmm.

这样他们就能向其他投资者出售崩盘保险。但整体结构化债务业务规模更大，文章引用彭·艾弗特的话说，大家都喜欢这个业务。大多数时候它就像印钞机，但通常市场崩盘时他们总有办法亏钱。这就是银行。确实，销售结构化票据是赚大钱的一种方式。

So they can sell crash insurance to other investors. But the overall structured debts business is a is a bigger business, and the article quotes the Penn Eiffert saying, everybody loves this business. It prints money most of the time, and then usually they find a way to lose money when the markets are crashing. That's the banks. It is true that selling structured notes is a way to make a lot of money.

这类交易的利润空间大约在1%到3%之间。但不知为何，银行最终持有的这些票据头寸有时会在危机中爆仓，这本来不该发生在自动可赎回产品上——这类产品本质是银行向零售客户购买危机保险。不过话说回来，产品类型繁多，有些更像是银行在出售危机保险。

Like, the edge on these trades is, like, one to 3%. But somehow, banks end up with positions in these notes that sometimes blow up in crisis, which is not what's supposed to happen with the auto call, which is really supposed to be the banks buying crisis insurance from the retail customers. But again, there's lots of different profiles, and some of them are more the banks selling crisis insurance.

你最喜欢的结构化产品是哪一种？

What would you say your favorite structured product is?

我是说，我确实喜欢自动可赎回产品，因为它就像是

I mean, I do like the auto callable just because it's like

看来很多人都是这样。

So do a lot of people, it seems like.

但故事的另一面是，银行现在正把他们的结构化票据风险转嫁给对冲基金，因为这就是银行现在处理所有事情的方式。

But the other thing in the story is that, like, the banks are now offloading their structured note risk to hedge funds because that's what banks do with everything now.

是啊，我们之前讨论过的另一个主题。

Yeah. Another theme we've talked about.

没错。银行与客户有关系，但他们不会把所有风险都放在自己的资产负债表上，所以他们会找一些对冲基金来承担结构化票据的风险。

Yeah. The bank has a relationship with a customer but like they're not gonna take all this risk on their own balance sheet so they'll find some hedge fund to take the structured note risk.

酷。

Cool.

好吧。

Alright.

很遗憾，我们的时间到此为止。所以

Unfortunately, that's all the time we have. So

我们下周见。

We'll see you next week.

把你的

Send in your

问题发过来吧，科罗拉多。

questions, please. Colorado.

是啊。如果问题不够好，我可能就不打开

Yeah. If they're not good enough, maybe I just won't open

笔记本电脑了。

the laptop.

到时候看吧。去滑雪了。

We'll see. Be skiing.

以上就是《金钱那些事》播客的全部内容，我是马特·莱文。

And that was the Money Stuff podcast. I'm Matt Levine.

我是凯蒂·格雷菲尔德。

And I'm Katie Greifeld.

您可以通过订阅bloomberg.com上的《金钱那些事》简报来阅读我的文章。

You can find my work by subscribing to the Money Stuff newsletter on bloomberg.com.

您可以在每个交易日东部时间下午3点至5点的收盘时段，在彭博电视上看到我。

And you can find me on Bloomberg TV every day on the close between three and 5PM eastern.

我们期待您的来信。您可以发送邮件至moneypod@Bloomberg.net提问，您的问题可能会在节目中得到解答。

We'd love to hear from you. You can send an email to moneypod@Bloomberg.net. Ask us a question, and we might answer it on the air.

您也可以在当前收听平台订阅我们的节目并留下评论，这将帮助更多人发现这档节目。

You can also subscribe to our show wherever you're listening right now and leave us a review. It helps more people find the show.

《金钱那些事》播客由安娜·马扎拉基斯和摩西·安丹制作。

The Money Stuff Podcast is produced by Anna Mazarakis and Moses Andam.

我们的主题音乐由布莱克·梅普尔斯作曲。

Our theme music was composed by Blake Maples.

艾米·基恩是我们的执行制片人。

Amy Keene is our executive producer.

而塞奇·鲍曼是彭博播客部门的负责人。

And Sage Baumann is Bloomberg's head of podcasts.

感谢收听《金钱那些事》播客。下周我们将带来更多精彩内容。

Thanks for listening to the Money Stuff podcast. We'll be back next week with more stuff.

如何将你的企业从创意发展为行业领导者？借助亚马逊商业提供的智能采购工具和技术，将愿景变为现实。从快速免费配送到深度采购洞察和自动化采购审批，他们提供实现目标所需的一切。在竞争中脱颖而出并非易事。简化你的采购流程以抢占先机。

How can you grow your business from idea to industry leader? Bring your vision to life with smart business buying tools and technology from Amazon Business. From fast free shipping to in-depth buying insights and automated purchase approvals, They deliver everything you need to achieve your goals. It's not easy to stand out from the crowd. Simplify how you stock up to get ahead.