Monocle on Sunday - 回顾从迪拜、新德里等地的一周 封面

回顾从迪拜、新德里等地的一周

Reviewing the week from Dubai, New Delhi and beyond

本集简介

戈拉娜·格里奇和马库斯·朔格尔与泰勒·布鲁莱一起回顾本周新闻。我们还听到了来自迪拜的因扎曼·拉希德和来自新德里的林迪·普里基特的报道。 查看 omnystudio.com/listener 了解隐私信息。

双语字幕

仅展示文本字幕,不包含中文音频;想边听边看,请使用 Bayt 播客 App。

Speaker 0

早上好,来自苏黎世。

Good morning from Zurich.

Speaker 0

您正在收听《Monocle周日版》,我是泰勒·布鲁勒。

You're listening to Monocle on Sunday with me, Tyler Bruellet.

Speaker 0

在今天的节目中,我们将重返杜福尔街。

Coming up on today's program, we are back in Dufour Strasse.

Speaker 0

我不确定已经过去多久了。

I don't know how long it's been.

Speaker 0

我们稍后会联系艾玛,但今天马库斯·谢尔格在这里,和我们聊聊市场营销的方方面面,也许还会涉及一点地缘政治。

We'll check with Emma in a moment, but Marcus Scherger, is here to talk about all things marketing, maybe a little bit of geopolitics day.

Speaker 0

当然,在安全与地缘政治领域,我们的特派记者戈拉娜·格吉奇今天早上也来到了现场。

Certainly, in the world of security, and geopolitics, Our correspondent on that beat, Gorana Grgiuch is here this morning.

Speaker 0

早上好。

Good morning.

Speaker 0

很高兴见到你。

Very nice to see you.

Speaker 0

在你所关注的这个领域,总是有一段缓慢的时期。

Always, a slow week, in this orbit that you cover.

Speaker 1

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

我们从一场战争转向另一场战争。

We go from war to war.

Speaker 1

我想上一次我们见面时,谈的全是委内瑞拉的事情。

I think last time we met, it was all things Venezuela.

Speaker 1

当然,我们现在深陷中东局势,而过去一周则出现了大量跨区域的伙伴关系——有些早在伊朗问题之前就已形成,但许多则是由针对伊朗或伊朗相关的战争所引发的连锁反应造成的。

Of course, we are in deep in The Middle East, and the past week was just a sort of plethora of different cross theater friendships, some forged way before Iran, but some very much are the product of the ripple effects, that the war in, Iran or against Iran has caused.

Speaker 1

从欧盟与澳大利亚的自由贸易协定,到乌克兰、沙特阿拉伯的防务合作,再到印度、俄罗斯、白俄罗斯、朝鲜、菲律宾、中国——随便你挑一个感兴趣的。

So everything from, EU Australia free trade deal, Ukraine, Saudi Arabia defense cooperation, India, Russia, Belarus, DPRK, Philippines, China, pick your, favorite.

Speaker 0

嗯,但也许在这接下来的五十八分钟里,这些还不足以全面覆盖。

Well, yeah, but maybe it won't be enough across these next fifty eight minutes.

Speaker 0

我们还将前往科里萨湾,采访那里的记者因扎曼·拉希德,并带来来自印度的最新消息。

We'll also be heading to the Gulf Of Corissa talking to our correspondent there, Inzamam Rashid, and we'll be getting the latest from India.

Speaker 2

我是《Monocle》驻新德里的记者林迪·普里基特,今天将讨论邦选举的激烈竞选、印度超级联赛 cricket 的惊人估值,以及德里新机场。

I'm Lyndee Prickitt, Monocle's correspondent in New Delhi, and I'll be talking about intense campaigning for state elections, eye popping valuations of IPL cricket, and Delhi's new airport.

Speaker 0

日期是2026年3月29日。

It's the 03/29/2026.

Speaker 0

来自苏黎世的现场直播。

Live from Zurich.

Speaker 0

欢迎收听《Monocle》周日版。

This is Monocle on Sunday.

Speaker 2

来自苏黎世的现场直播。

Live from Zurich.

Speaker 2

欢迎收听由泰勒·布雷莱主持的《Monocle》周日版。

This is Monocle on Sunday with Tyler Brulay.

Speaker 0

早上好,这里是苏黎世,今天的苏黎世相当阴沉,并非我们原本期待的那种阳光明媚、春日时钟调整后的景象。

And good morning, from Zurich, a rather gray Zurich, not, sort of the the sunny sort of early springtime clocks changed, Zurich that we would, we were sort of hoping for.

Speaker 0

有点潮湿,有点灰暗,但我们还是会保持积极和明朗。

A little bit damp, a little bit gray, but, we're gonna keep it perky and sunny.

Speaker 0

人满为患。

Very, full house.

Speaker 0

早上好,欢迎所有今天聚集在杜福尔街的朋友们。

Good morning to everyone who's gathered, of course, here at Dufour Strasse this morning.

Speaker 0

这是一档现场节目。

Very much, a live, program.

Speaker 0

非常高兴地告诉大家,马库斯·谢尔格在这里,他是副教授。

Very happy to say, Marcus Scherger is here, associate, professor.

Speaker 0

他专注于营销领域,但我也必须说声恭喜,因为你又接了新工作。

Really looking after the world of marketing, but I I think we have to say also congratulations because you've got a new gig, as well.

Speaker 0

负责Yes。

Looking after Yes.

Speaker 0

负责瑞士营销这个庞大的世界,你知道的,是的。

Looking after the world that big world of of Swiss marketing, you know Yeah.

Speaker 0

而且,可能还要抱歉地提到,我们之前也听到了一些关于巧克力消失的事。

And and maybe sorry trying to curb disappearing chocolates, as well as we heard a a little a little bit earlier.

Speaker 0

但至少人们仍然在做营销,营销依然在运作。

But at least people still at least marketing is still working.

Speaker 0

人们似乎仍然想要奇巧巧克力。

People still want KitKatz, it sounds like.

Speaker 3

至少是这样。

At least.

Speaker 3

他们甚至还做了一个新的,我的新职位是瑞士市场营销协会的主席,更多是侧重于实践层面,将来自不同公司的知识整合在一起。

They they even do one more, but my my new post is president of the Swiss Society of Marketing, and it's more the practical side and bringing together the knowledge from all the different companies.

Speaker 3

而且,是的,讨论那些推动市场营销发展、为瑞士品牌带来改变的话题。

And, yeah, discussing those topics that should be moving marketing around and moving the needle for for the brands in Switzerland.

Speaker 0

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

我们稍后会谈到这个话题,因为这当然是一个关于移动性的世界,人们需要从地球的一端到另一端。

We'll be talking about that very topic a little bit because, you know, this is a world, of course, of mobility, people having to get from one side of the planet to the other.

Speaker 0

当然,冲突也为某些地区带来了机遇等等。

The opportunities, of course, that conflicts also present for certain geographies, etcetera as well.

Speaker 0

当然,有一位专家将帮助我们理清这一切。

Someone who's gonna be, of course, helping us wade through all of that.

Speaker 0

我们的安全记者戈拉娜·格吉奇也在这里。

Our security correspondent, Gorana Grgiuch, is also here.

Speaker 0

早上好。

Good morning.

Speaker 0

我们在节目一开始时就听到了你的发言。

We heard from you at the top of the program.

Speaker 0

你那里有一叠笔记。

You've got a sheaf of notes there.

Speaker 0

要谈的事情很多,但我想回到之前新闻头条上提到的那件事——没错,就是那辆被劫持、失踪的卡车,上面载着十几吨的奇巧巧克力。

Many things to cover, but I wish I wanna go back to, what was in the news headlines earlier on about this, yeah, obviously, this this this truck, that was hijacked, disappeared, whatever, with all of these these 12 plus tons of of KitKats in it.

Speaker 0

你认为这会不会就是瑞士国家储备中的那批货?

Do you think that was is that what's probably in the national supply?

Speaker 0

因为我们总听说瑞士有六个月的巧克力库存。

Because we're always told in Switzerland that there is a, what, a six month stockpile of of chocolate.

Speaker 0

我们一直以为瑞士储存了六个月的咖啡以及日常生活中所需的所有必需品。

We're we're led to believe there's six months of of coffee and all of the essentials you need in daily life.

Speaker 0

你认为瑞士会储存奇巧巧克力吗?

Do you think do you think they're storing Kit Kats in this country?

Speaker 1

我最初的反应是:我们难道还没受够吗?或者我们不是已经面对着这一大堆麻烦了吗?比如石油冲击、潜在的供应危机等等。

So my initial reaction was haven't we suffered enough, or aren't we already, like, looking at this sort of mountain of trouble, with all the oil shocks and potential, you know, like, the just secretion that might be looming and all that.

Speaker 1

但说实话,我不太确定瑞士是否真的有巧克力战略储备。

But to be honest, I'm not quite sure about the strategic reserve of chocolate that Switzerland has.

Speaker 1

我想可能会有一些保障措施,比如每个公民都有权获得黑巧克力、牛奶巧克力,或者任何他们喜欢的类型。

I think probably there would be some provision, you know, or a right of every citizen to have their dark or milk or whatever sort of floats their boat.

Speaker 1

但更严肃地说,最近很多人都在讨论动用战略储备、保持系统弹性,尤其是在石油等能源方面。

But on a more serious note, days, talk of tapping into strategic reserves, having that sort of slack in the system and reserves, particularly when it comes to hydrocarbons is on a lot of people's minds.

Speaker 1

我一直在密切关注印度-太平洋地区的情况。

I'm following a lot what's going on around most of the Indo Pacific specifically.

Speaker 1

我必须说,那里的形势相当严峻。

And I have to say that things are quite dire.

Speaker 1

你知道,澳大利亚目前大约只剩下三十六到三十七天的燃料了。

So, you know, Australia has about thirty six, thirty seven days of fuel left at the moment.

Speaker 1

菲律宾已经宣布进入紧急状态。

Philippines has already declared the state of emergency.

Speaker 1

所以我认为,我们正处在一个脱离正常轨道的世界中。

So I think we are looking at a world that, is, is, fallen out of the sort of tracks.

Speaker 1

我们已经经历过这些冲击,但这一次,相比乌克兰和俄罗斯的情况,或许正向我们展示着全球五分之一的碳氢化合物供应被挟持时的真实后果。

We've already had these sort of shocks, but this one compared to Ukraine, Russia is maybe, you know, showing us what really this one fifth of the global supply of hydro carbons is doing when, they're held hostage.

Speaker 0

我们马上将连线阿联酋的记者,但在那之前,让我们继续谈谈囤积物资的话题,听听我们在伦敦的主编安德鲁·塔克的情况。

We're gonna go to The UAE, in a moment to speak to our correspondent there, but, just let's stay in the world of stockpiling things, and check-in with our editor in chief, Andrew Tuck, who is, in in London.

Speaker 0

安德鲁,你家里有没有囤什么东西?

Andrew, anything that you're hoarding, in the Larder?

Speaker 4

没有。

No.

Speaker 4

不过我想说,泰勒,这周我刚去苏黎世短暂见过你。

But I was gonna say, Tyler, I I I came to see you, briefly in Zurich this week.

Speaker 4

当我离开苏黎世机场时,我觉得你不必担心巧克力会短缺。

And when I I left Zurich Airport, I don't think you have to worry about any shortage of chocolate.

Speaker 4

只要去苏黎世机场就行了。

Just go go to Zurich Airport.

Speaker 4

大家都知道,当你离开苏黎世机场时,尤其是如果要返回英国,你会经过一片由三角巧克力组成的阿尔卑斯山景观,我觉得你已经有足够的巧克力了。

As everyone will know, as you depart Zurich Airport, especially if you're head heading back to The UK, you kind of leave through a kind of a an Alpine landscape of Toblerones, and I think you've got enough chocolate.

Speaker 4

所以我觉得你不用担心奇巧巧克力。

So I think you're gonna don't worry about the KitKats.

Speaker 0

我会没事的。

I'll I'll be fine.

Speaker 0

但不管怎样,听我说。

But, anyway, listen.

Speaker 0

我今晚要去海湾地区的记者那里。

I'm I'm heading to see our correspondent, in in The Gulf this evening.

Speaker 0

不过,安德鲁,也许我们可以看看英国的报纸头版。

But, Andrew, maybe just, I guess but let's look at the front pages of of The UK.

Speaker 0

但在那之前,你知道,你之前在瑞士。

But before that, I mean, you know, here you were in Switzerland.

Speaker 0

当然,你离得更近了。

You're, of course, you're a step closer.

Speaker 0

再往东一点点,也就是朝正在发生的一切——当然包括乌克兰,还有海湾地区——更近了一些。

That little bit further east, you know, towards everything that is happening, of course, Ukraine, but also in in The Gulf as as well.

Speaker 0

但与此同时,确实也有不少其他事情。

But at the same time, yeah, there's a number of things as well.

Speaker 0

但我有时觉得,你往西走得越远,这场冲突就显得越遥远。

And I sometimes feel like the further west you move, that conflict becomes just that little bit more distance.

Speaker 0

它 simply 就不在人们的首要关注范围内。

Just it's just simply not not top of not top of mind.

Speaker 0

但如果我们今天早上看看英国的头版新闻,那里有什么头条新闻?

But if we were to look at the front pages in The UK this morning, what's making headlines there?

Speaker 4

嗯,引起头版关注的正是海湾地区正在发生的事情。

Well, it it is what's happening in The Gulf that is making the front pages.

Speaker 4

我认为他们在这里关注的是戈拉娜刚才提到的所有故事,这对我们的能源安全意味着什么?

I think that they're looking here, of course, all the stories that Gorana was just saying here, what would it mean for our fuel security?

Speaker 4

目前这里不太恐慌,但他们表示担心在未来几天,人们可能会涌向加油站,开始大量加油,从而耗尽现有的储备。我昨天没看到这种情况,但他们确实有这种担忧。

I think less panic here at the moment, but they're they are saying that they were concerned that in the coming days, there may be, I I didn't see it yesterday, but they're fearing that people will rush the, the petrol stations and and start filling up and and diminishing the reserves there are.

Speaker 4

但我认为这里还没有真正陷入恐慌。

But I don't think there's that that there's any real panic here setting in.

Speaker 4

你知道,全世界都在讨论的所有问题,这里也同样在上演。

You know, the all the questions are, playing out across the world are playing out here.

Speaker 4

这里已经发生了反犹太袭击事件。

There's there's been antisemitic attacks.

Speaker 4

因此,人们正在思考这场战争将如何继续加剧这种情况,以及警方能做些什么来保护这个国家的犹太人。

So people are wondering how the war is going to continue to feed into that and what the police can do to protect, Jewish people in this country.

Speaker 4

这关乎我们武装力量的准备程度。

That it's it's the nature of how prepared we are with our armed forces.

Speaker 4

因此,这场辩论仍在继续,因为坦白说,我们感觉有点措手不及。

So that debate is continuing because it feels that we are a little bit on the back foot, to put it mildly.

Speaker 4

我认为,这场波斯湾危机所引发的另一个有趣问题是,它对我们长期能源安全意味着什么。

And I think the other interesting thing which is triggered by this this this crisis in The Gulf is what it means for our energy security long term.

Speaker 4

因此,这里又出现了争论:我们是否应该重返北海,尝试开采更多的石油和天然气?

So there's the debate here again about should we be going back to the North Sea and and trying to drill for more oil and gas?

Speaker 4

这是否正是我们应该对特朗普先生说‘对不起,您错了’的时刻?

Is there or is this the moment actually when you say, sorry, mister Trump, you're wrong.

Speaker 4

如果我们当初忽视了石油世界,转而大力投资可再生能源,我们的能源安全反而会更有保障。

This we if we we would be more secure with our energy, if only we had, ignored the the world of oil and invested more heavily in renewables.

Speaker 0

我想请出我们在波斯湾的记者因扎姆·拉希德。

And and I just want to, bring in, Inzam Rashid, our correspondent, in in The Gulf.

Speaker 0

因扎姆,早上好。

Inzam, good morning.

Speaker 0

我不确定你目前是从哪里连线的。

I'm not sure where you're joining us from.

Speaker 0

你是在阿布扎比吗?

Are you in, are you in Abu Dhabi?

Speaker 0

你在迪拜吗?

Are you in Dubai?

Speaker 0

你是在那个小国家更远的地方吗?

Are you somewhere, further flung in, in that small state?

Speaker 5

早上好,泰勒。

Morning, Tyler.

Speaker 5

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 5

我在迪拜,坐在阳台上,俯瞰着一处地点——它被列入伊朗的轰炸目标清单,基本上是一个能源设施,就在杰贝勒阿里港附近。这个地方以前曾被袭击过,但目前看起来相当平静。

In Dubai, on my balcony, overlooking one of the, the sites, which is a hit list on the, Iranian, target list to, to bomb essentially, an energy site overlooking it right now at Jebel Ali Port, which, has been targeted before, but, right now, it seems quite calm.

Speaker 0

为了让我了解一下情况,能给我稍微更新一下吗?因为在上节目前,我们正在讨论机场的情况。

And just to tell me, bring us a little bit up to speed because before we went on air, we were talking about, of course, what is, you know, happening with airports.

Speaker 0

往北走,你知道的,巴林仍然关闭,我想花点时间谈谈影响,稍后我也想请马库斯谈谈这个问题。

The further north you go, of course, you know, Bahrain, still closed, and and I wanna spend a little bit of time about the impact, and and I wanna bring Marcus, you know, on on this, as well in a moment.

Speaker 0

当然,你在这里,像海湾航空这样的国家航空公司,从巴林出发,已经停飞了部分航班,转而使用沙特阿拉伯的机场。

But, of course, you're here, you have then a state carrier like like Gulf Air out of Bahrain, pretty much grounded some flights that they that they are using airports, out of Saudi Arabia.

Speaker 0

当然,来自多哈的卡塔尔航空,航班安排和我们平时的不一样。

Of course, Qatar Airways out of Doha simply, you know, not the same schedule that that we're used to.

Speaker 0

而你在迪拜,航班进出正常。

And then you there there you are in Dubai, flights in and out.

Speaker 0

我们有一些同事昨晚刚落地。

We have some colleagues, who who landed last night.

Speaker 0

另一位同事今天下午要起飞。

Another colleague who's flying this afternoon.

Speaker 0

我今晚要去阿布扎比。

I'm heading to Abu Dhabi this evening.

Speaker 0

阿提哈德航空当然也在正常运营。

Etihad, of course, you know, up up and running, as well.

Speaker 0

但只是想让你说说当前的整体状况,给我们一点感受和氛围。

But just the the state the state and maybe just give us sort of a flavor and, and feeling.

Speaker 0

我觉得还有一点,就是你是否感受到我们现在处于一种暂停状态,Inzee?目前一切看似平静,但前方似乎有什么即将发生,这不仅仅是简单的问题,而是关乎飞机能否顺利加油——无论是在当地加油,还是在印度加油。

And I think also just that sense of of impact that do you feel that, we're in the sort of suspended state right now, Inzee, that, okay, things are fine for the moment, but there is something around the corner, which also just not I'm not saying as simple as, but just the whole notion of of being able to refuel aircraft, whether they're, you know, of course, fueling up there or or over over in India.

Speaker 0

我不知道。

I no.

Speaker 0

我想我们失去Inzee了。

I think we've lost we've lost our Inzee.

Speaker 0

安德鲁,我们稍后回来找你,现在先试着把Inzee连回来。

Andrew, we'll we'll come back to you just while we try to get Inzee back on the line.

Speaker 0

就你所说的那种感觉而言,你说没有恐慌,但我很好奇英国这边的叙事是怎样的,因为你知道,今天早上来看,有一种感觉,英国确实需要重整军备,这与一个高调的新闻有关,比如调动“龙”号护卫舰,最终将其派往波斯湾或东地中海。

Just tell me on that sense of that feeling of you saying no panic, but I'm wondering the narrative, as well, in in the in The UK because, you know, on one side, you know, if you look at the the time this morning, there's this sense of, yes, The UK needs to rearm with this with this in this high high profile story about, you know, mobilizing HMS Dragon, getting this this frigate out to the Gulf at final or out to the out to the Eastern Mediterranean that finally happened.

Speaker 0

目前似乎存在一些混乱。

There seems to be some of this this confusion right now.

Speaker 0

当然,英国需要加大投入,当然也需要对首相施加巨大压力来这么做。

Of course, UK needs to to step up, needs to to spend a lot of pressure, of course, on the prime minister to do so.

Speaker 0

大家都在说,你们到底什么时候才会彻底放开呢?

And everyone's saying, well, at what point are you gonna sort of open the spigot?

Speaker 4

没错,正是如此。

Well, exactly.

Speaker 4

而且我认为,你知道,泰勒,任何额外的国防经费,都需要很长时间才能真正落实到部队中。

And I think that, you know, as you know, Tyler, any any any additional funding for our armed services, it takes a long, long time for that to work through the services.

Speaker 4

所以我们的战备状态不会出现任何显著的改变。

So it it it's not gonna be any any dramatic change in our preparedness.

Speaker 4

我们此前的表现显得非常被动。

And we have looked terribly on the back foot.

Speaker 4

我们原本指望法国能在塞浦路斯沿海部署护卫舰,而那里正是我们拥有基地的地方。

We were depending on the French to have, you know, frigates off the coast of Cyprus where we we have, bases.

Speaker 4

这看起来并不理想。

It didn't look good.

Speaker 4

我认为英国皇家空军确实具备一些能力,但今天早上他们也开始讨论,准备派遣配备反水雷设备的舰船前往该地区。

And and I think the RAF has done done some some has some skills, but they are now talking to this morning about also preparing ships heading to the region with kind of, anti mine, equipment.

Speaker 4

所以他们正在逐步跟上节奏。

So they're they're beginning to get up to speed.

Speaker 4

但这里的问题在于,基思·达默并不想卷入这场战争,也不认为这是一场他所宣布的战争,他觉得自己是被唐纳德·特朗普拖入其中的。

But the the issue here is, of course, that Kyuss Dahmer does not want to be involved in this war and doesn't believe that it's a war that he he's declared and feels that he's being dragged into it, by Donald Trump.

Speaker 4

所以这并不是一场我认为会以某种方式展开的战争,有趣的是,右翼阵营内部似乎也出现了分裂,而通常情况下,他们会一致支持美国领导人。

So it's not a war that I think is gonna be in a way, what's fascinating here is is the right, I think, is also split, whereas normally, they would all fall in in behind the the US leader.

Speaker 4

他们本应坚定地支持我们的国防。

They would be very, strong on on our defense.

Speaker 4

但就连他本人,许多右翼人士也觉得,实际上,叙事权并不掌握在我们手中。

But even him, many people on the right are feeling that, actually, the the narrative isn't being set by us.

Speaker 4

我们正被拖入一个我们并未发起的故事中。

We are being pulled into a story that we didn't start.

Speaker 4

而且,实际上根本没有退出的途径,我们也看不到任何退出的可能。

And, actually, there's no there's no off ramp, and we can't see where that off ramp is.

Speaker 4

所以我认为,当你阅读媒体时,尽管我确实属于保守党,但似乎它决心宣称:特朗普想要什么,我们就该提供什么。

So I think, actually, when you read the press, whilst whilst I'm certainly in in the conservative party, it seemed to be determined to say that, look, what mister Trump wants, we we should supply.

Speaker 4

我认为,实际上在报纸的评论文章中,人们并不确定自己是否真的想卷入这场战争。

I think, actually, you you you see in the opinion pieces, in the paper that, actually, people are not that sure that they really want to be involved in this.

Speaker 4

我认为,这种平静某种程度上是因为公众层面根本没有真正的讨论。

And I think that's that's in a way that the the calm about it is because there's no there's no real debate going on with the pub with the public.

Speaker 4

我们还没有看到类似伊拉克战争那样的反应,当时街头曾出现大规模的示威活动。

We haven't seen the kinds of responses to, like, the Iraq war where you saw the kinds of demonstrations on our streets.

Speaker 4

确实有一些,但规模远不及那时。

There have been there have been, but nothing at that level.

Speaker 4

我认为许多人对这场战争的意义感到有些不确定。

And I think that many people are just a bit unsure about what this war means.

Speaker 4

这反映的不是恐慌的缺乏,而是一种轻微的不协调感。

And that's reflected in not not not a lack of panic, but just a little bit of dissonance from it.

Speaker 0

戈拉娜,是的。

Gorana, this is yeah.

Speaker 0

我有个有趣的问题想问你。

This is a a curious question for you.

Speaker 0

在这件事上,难道不能只‘半怀’孕吗?

Can't can't you be half pregnant, when it comes, to this topic?

Speaker 0

因为正如安德鲁所说,他们当然认为这关乎英国和许多其他国家。

Because as and and Andrew saying, you know, they they, of course, see this is The UK and many other countries.

Speaker 0

他们不想被卷入这场战争。

They don't wanna be dragged into this.

Speaker 0

但与此同时,无论你是在拉姆施泰因空军基地,还是在英国的费尔福德,这些国家作为东道主,仅仅在幕后提供物资支持,就扮演着极其重要的角色。

But at the same time, you know, whether you go to Ramstein, airbase, whether you're at Fairford in in in The UK, you you you these countries are playing an enormous role just simply as as hosts on on one side, material, you know, support in the background, all all of these things.

Speaker 0

我们这里说的不是地面部队,但同时我们也知道,拦截任务等行动正在开展。

Now we're not talking about boots on the ground, but but we know as well at same time that there are interception missions going on, etcetera.

Speaker 0

所以,这是否意味着……是的。

There there is this so is it yeah.

Speaker 0

当你看看伦敦、巴黎和柏林所传递的叙事时,这是否是一种有点半途而废的反应呢?

Is it a little bit sort of a half baked response, when when you look at whether it's whether it's a narrative out of London versus Paris versus versus Berlin?

Speaker 1

我想说的是,从美国的盟友来看,无论是在欧洲还是远至东亚太平洋地区,他们的反应都一致地体现了他们希望在危机管理以及应对那些从未征求过他们意见的行动的后续影响中扮演的角色。

What I would say is that we saw from US allies, and I would say across theatres, so from Europe all the way to East Asia Pacific, a response which is consistent with this sort of role they want to play more in terms of crisis management and dealing with the after effects of a mission that they were never consulted on.

Speaker 1

他们并不想被明确卷入,没有任何一个盟友——无论是北约还是亚洲盟友——表示愿意参与这场军事行动,因为他们从未被征询过意见。

They don't want to be explicitly there was no one of these allies, whether it's NATO again, whether it's Asian allies that has said that they want to be part of the military mission because they were never consulted on.

Speaker 1

战略目标并不明确。

It wasn't clear what the strategic objectives were.

Speaker 1

他们一直在改变。

They keep on changing.

Speaker 1

也没有明确的退出策略。

There is no clear exit strategy as well.

Speaker 1

我们一再推迟这个日期,而他们目前显然不希望参与任何谈判。

We keep on pushing that date, and they certainly don't want to be part at the moment of any kind of negotiations.

Speaker 1

我们并未看到这种调解角色由巴基斯坦、埃及,以及一定程度上的土耳其承担。

We don't see this sort of role for mediation that's taken up by mostly to date Pakistan, Egypt, to an extent Turkey.

Speaker 1

因此,如果我们从北约的角度来看,土耳其或许能发挥一定作用,但绝非以这种制度化的方式。

So Turkey, maybe if we kind of look at it through that prism of of NATO has some role to play, but certainly not in that kind of institutional sense.

Speaker 1

我说,你完全正确。

What I would say, you're absolutely right.

Speaker 1

这些盟友对于美国而言依然至关重要,无论是在情报共享方面——通过五眼联盟及其他各种渠道,还是在空中加油方面,因为我们知道,所有这些装备在前往中东的过程中,都必须经过欧洲的许多港口或在欧洲的基地停靠。

These allies are still crucial for The United States when it comes to everything from intelligence sharing through Five Eyes and various other means for refueling because we know that all of these assets when they were moving actually to the Middle East had to pass through a lot of ports or had to actually stop at bases that are in Europe.

Speaker 1

这也引发了一些不满,尤其是在特朗普政府时期,西班牙的情况尤为突出。

And this has also caused some of the the peeves, most notably with Spain we saw in Trump administration.

Speaker 1

因此,美国盟友及其联盟体系的遗产无疑正在发挥作用。

So there is no way, of course, that the legacy of US allies actually allied system is not playing a role.

Speaker 1

但现在的问题是,这些国家愿意为与一场他们最初根本不想参与的战争产生关联而承担多大的政治代价。

But now the question is, to what extent they are willing to pay political cost of being associated with a war that they never wanted actually in the first place.

Speaker 1

他们不喜欢伊朗政权,但到目前为止对此事的处理方式,绝对不符合任何与盟友协商制定的预案。

They don't like the Iranian regime, but the way that this has been handled so far is definitely not according to any sort of playbook that has been made in consultation with allies.

Speaker 1

因此,我们将会看到——也已经看到——许多关于缓和局势以及第二天确保霍尔木兹海峡安全的举措,对吧?

So what we will see and what we've already seen is a lot of initiatives around a de escalation and then be securing the Strait Of Hormuz on the day after, right?

Speaker 1

目前没有任何一个盟友愿意派遣海军力量来实际保障商船的通行,对吧?

So there is no one of allies that is now prepared to send their naval assets to actually secure passage for commercial ships, right?

Speaker 1

对于商船而言,当它们知道自己在该区域极易受到攻击和暴露时。

For merchant ships, when they know that they can be very vulnerable and exposed there.

Speaker 1

而且,当再次没有任何保障时,我们已知美国正在派遣——或者一些部队已经派遣——第八十二空降师。

And then when there are actually no guarantees over again, what is the strategy we know now US is sending, or they're already some of them are already their eighty second airborne.

Speaker 1

所以,空降部队,你知道的,海军陆战队、特种作战部队。

So, parachuting troops, you know, marines, special ops.

Speaker 1

下一步是什么,对吧?

What is the next step, right?

Speaker 1

这是在升级的阶梯上吗?

Is it up on the escalation ladder?

Speaker 1

我们会看到地面部队登陆哈尔格岛吗?甚至有人提到伊斯法罕——那是其中一个核设施,对吧?

Are we going to see maybe boots on the ground on Harg Island or some have even said in Isfahan which is one of the nuclear sites, right?

Speaker 1

这又会如何激化伊朗,使其可能继续升级,横向扩大冲突,比如袭击地区目标,当然还有任何可能在附近的人?

And what will this do to then again provoke the Iranians to potentially escalate, keep on escalating horizontally, right, by striking regional targets and of course anyone else who might be found in in the vicinity.

Speaker 0

我们的因扎姆·拉希德现在从迪拜连线回来。

Our Inzam Rashid is back on the line in in Dubai.

Speaker 0

抱歉刚才断线了,但如果你刚才听到了我的问题,我想稍后再回到这一点,不过我们先回到霍尔木兹海峡。

Sorry to have lost you there, but maybe if you if you caught my question a bit, a bit earlier, I wanna come back to that in a moment, but just let's go back to the Strait Of Hormuz.

Speaker 0

昨晚看到泰国外交部与德黑兰达成了一项协议,允许他们的船只安全通过霍尔木兹海峡。

Saw overnight, that Thailand's foreign ministry have cut some type of deal with Tehran, where there will be permission for for their vessels to pass safely through the state of of Hormuz.

Speaker 0

因扎姆,是不是有一份清单,列出了其他一些不结盟国家?我们知道泰国与许多国家关系友好,这些国家要么积极与德黑兰接触,要么至少保持热线畅通,正在试图私下达成协议。

Is there a bit of a laundry list, Inzia, of of other countries who, of course, non aligned, and we know that Thailand is friends with with many nations who are also actively in Tehran or or certainly keeping the the phone lines warm, trying to cut side deals right now.

Speaker 5

当然。

Absolutely.

Speaker 5

我的意思是,昨天伊朗外长和巴基斯坦外长还宣布,未来十天左右将允许20艘巴基斯坦籍船只通过霍尔木兹海峡。

I mean, there was also an announcement yesterday from Iran's foreign, minister minister and Pakistan's foreign minister that they would allow 20 vessels over the next ten days or so of Pakistani flag vessels through the Strait Of Hormuz.

Speaker 5

正如戈拉娜提到的,我们知道巴基斯坦目前正扮演某种调解者和沟通者的角色。

Obviously, we know as Gorana mentioned Pakistan playing some form of mediator communicator role right now.

Speaker 5

目前,埃及、土耳其、巴基斯坦和沙特阿拉伯的外长正在伊斯兰堡举行会谈,讨论降级事宜。

There's foreign ministers of Egypt, Turkey, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia currently inside Islamabad having discussions today talking about de escalation.

Speaker 5

我们也知道,巴基斯坦正在美国和伊朗之间传递信息。

We know that Pakistan's passing notes between The US and Iran as well.

Speaker 5

是的,确实有不少国家正在打电话给德黑兰,试图让船只通过霍尔木兹海峡,因为这目前是唐纳德·特朗普最大的麻烦。

So yes, there are definitely a number of countries picking up the phone to speak to Tehran to try and get vessels passed through the Straits Of Hormuz because that right now is the biggest headache for Donald Trump.

Speaker 5

是的,你正看到导弹朝海湾地区的美军基地飞来。

Yes, you've got missiles coming towards US bases across The Gulf.

Speaker 5

我们甚至看到沙特阿拉伯的一些美军飞机受到了损坏。

We've even seen damage to some planes in Saudi Arabia, US military planes in Saudi Arabia.

Speaker 5

但这对唐纳德·特朗普和整个海湾地区来说都是最大的难题。

But this is the biggest headache for Donald Trump and for the wider Gulf as well.

Speaker 5

全球约20%的石油通常经过这里,但过去一个月石油运输一直断断续续,主要是伊朗石油运往中国和印度等地。

20% of the world's oil usually passes through here, and it's just been a drip feed of oil over the last month, mainly in fact Iranian oil that's going from Iran to the likes of China and India.

Speaker 5

事实上,伊朗目前运送石油的规模远超正常水平。

In fact, Iran are seeing the levels of sending their oil much higher than they would do during normal times as well.

Speaker 5

因此,他们通过关闭霍尔木兹海峡在经济上获益。

So they're benefiting from keeping the Strait Of Hormuz closed economically.

Speaker 5

他们确实获益了,但显然也有大量船只遭到袭击。

They're benefiting, but obviously we've seen a huge number of vessels that have been targeted as well.

Speaker 5

我们已看到,在霍尔木兹海峡,一些船只被伊朗导弹和无人机击中后造成人员死亡。

We've seen deaths in the Strait Of Hormuz once some of these ships have been hit by Iranian missiles and drones.

Speaker 5

有趣的是,几周前一艘泰国船只遭到袭击,据称约有20至25名船员被阿曼海军救出。

Interestingly, it was actually a Thai vessel that was targeted a couple of weeks ago where we saw I think it was around 20 or 25 crew members had to be rescued by the Omani Navy.

Speaker 5

我认为在这次袭击中,有三到四名船员不幸丧生。

I think three or four maybe crew crew members were sadly killed as a result of this attack.

Speaker 5

因此,泰国显然试图利用这一局势,作为一个并未直接卷入这场冲突的国家,正努力让其船只通行,以帮助这些经济体——而我们知道,全球南方国家正因燃料价格飙升、食品价格暴涨而陷入困境,因为不仅石油,化肥也无法通过这条具有战略意义的水道。

So clearly Thailand of trying to leverage what had happened there, a country which doesn't have direct involvement in this conflict and are trying to get some of their ships through to help these economies, and it's mainly the global South countries which we know are struggling fuel prices going through the roof, food prices as well because it's not just oil, it's fertilisers as well that can't pass through this very strategic waterway.

Speaker 5

所以是的,我认为许多国家会打电话给德黑兰,试图达成协议,但关键是,伊朗革命卫队对谁可以通过该水域有着严格的控制。

So yeah, I think you'll find a lot of countries picking up the phone and trying to cut a deal with Tehran, but the bottom line is that the IRGC, the Iranian military, have a very tight grip on who can pass through.

Speaker 5

如果试图通行的不是与美国有关的船只或以色列关联的船舶,他们就会发动攻击。

And if there isn't a US affiliated ship or an Israeli affiliated vessel that tries to pass through, they will target them.

Speaker 5

他们会轰炸这些船只。

They will bomb them.

Speaker 5

我认为,这目前是这片海域最大的担忧。

And I think that's the biggest worry right now in these waters.

Speaker 0

我想也许可以回到我们之前讨论的内容,就是这个,嗯。

I wanna maybe just, maybe go back to what we're discussing earlier, this this sort of yeah.

Speaker 0

这个航空领域的故事。

This aviation story.

Speaker 0

也许你的看法,因齐,我们之前说过,比如你去巴林,其空域基本上是关闭的。

Maybe your reflections, Inzee, you know, we were saying, like, if you go to, of course, you know, you know, Bahrain and airspace, you know, large largely closed.

Speaker 0

你知道,在海湾顶端,航空公司基本不飞行或停摆了。

You know, you have the sort of at at the top of the Gulf, airlines really not flying or functioning.

Speaker 0

往南走,事情当然开始好转,航班也陆续在迪拜起降。

Further south you go, then, of course, you know, things do start to, of course, you know, pick up, and and and flights are going in and out of out of Dubai.

Speaker 0

我猜你从阳台就能看到飞机,阿布扎比也是如此。

I can imagine you can probably see aircraft from you know, balcony, as well, and and likewise in in Abu Dhabi.

Speaker 0

这其中有多少是为了营造一种‘一切如常’的公关形象呢?毕竟这些是大型的、正常运转的枢纽,安德鲁,想听听你的看法。

How much of that is also a pure PR story as well to say that, you know, business as usual, these are, you know, these are big functioning hubs versus Andrew, wanna bring you in on this.

Speaker 0

我们有一个独家报道。

You know, we have a big exclusive story.

Speaker 0

我不知道这有多独家,但在《每日邮报》上,有个故事讲的是被关押的英国人,以及那些因发布迪拜袭击画面而获保释的人。

I don't know how exclusive it is, but in the Daily Mail, the story, you know, we're talking about the number of and focusing on on Brits behind bars, Brits who are are are also, out on bail, because they were posting images, of course, of of attacks in in in Dubai.

Speaker 0

所以我只是很好奇。

So I'm I'm just interested.

Speaker 0

也许,因齐亚,我先从你开始聊聊这场公关战,或者说,这场舆论操作,尤其是从航空领域说起。

Maybe, Inzia, I'll start with you on this sort of PR war, in in a way or or or let's say, spin operation that is going on as well, starting with aviation.

Speaker 5

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 5

听好了。

Look.

Speaker 5

我能看见飞机从我公寓楼上方飞过,还有战斗机。

I I can see planes flying above my apartment block, but also fighter jets as well.

Speaker 5

所以有时候凌晨两三点,当你的警报响起时,你会听到战斗机巨大的轰鸣声,因为伊朗的导弹和无人机正在袭向这个国家,但系统已经能根据你的位置进行地理定位。

So you hear the absolute roar of fighter jets two, 03:00 in the morning sometimes when your alarm goes off that there are Iranian missiles and drones incoming to the country, but they've kind of geolocated where you are now.

Speaker 5

所以只有当威胁靠近你时,系统才会向你发送警报。

So they will only send you an alarm if it's kind of near you.

Speaker 5

而且看起来,码头区域似乎经常成为目标,也许是因为我住的地方后面有大量能源设施。

And it seems that the targeting the marina quite a bit, perhaps because there are huge energy supplies just on the back of where I live.

Speaker 5

但你说得对,确实有一个巨大的公关宣传,声称一切正常。

But you're right, there is this there is this big PR push that everything's fine.

Speaker 5

尽量保持冷静,继续前行。

Kind of keep calm and carry on.

Speaker 5

这是新冠期间的流行语。

That was the big phrase during COVID.

Speaker 5

现在看来情况也是如此。

And it seems now is the case as well.

Speaker 5

但我们目前发现,阿提哈德和阿联酋航空确实恢复了运营。

But but what we're finding right now is that yes, the likes of Etihad and and Emirates have picked up.

Speaker 5

它们仍在执飞大量航班,虽然远未达到满载或满运营水平,但航班数量相当可观。

They are running many many flights still not at at full levels or even at full capacity by no means at full capacity, but they are running plenty of flights.

Speaker 5

但当这些导弹和无人机来袭时,整个航班运营就会被叫停或暂停,因为显然会有战斗机和防御系统试图拦截来自伊朗的导弹和无人机。

But when these missiles and drones do come in, then you see the whole flight operation being stopped, being paused because obviously there are then fighter jets, there are defence mechanisms trying to intercept these missiles and drones from Iran.

Speaker 5

正如你提到的,泰勒,你去巴林时,他们的空域基本已经关闭。

And you, as you mentioned, Tyler, you go over to to Bahrain and and they've pretty much kept their airspace closed.

Speaker 5

为什么会这样?

Why is that?

Speaker 5

这是因为美国军事基地靠近巴林的民用和居民区,也靠近机场。

Well, because you've actually got The US military base near to civilian and residential places in Bahrain near to the airport as well.

Speaker 5

我们知道,美国一直利用这个基地直接从该基地向伊朗发射导弹和炸弹。

And we know that The US have been using that base to fire missiles and bombs straight into Iran from that base.

Speaker 5

因此,巴林根本不敢冒风险开放其领空,允许商业航班继续运行。

So Bahrain just can't take the risk of essentially opening up their airspace, allowing commercial flights to continue.

Speaker 5

但特别是在阿联酋,确实存在一种乐观情绪。

But there is really an element of optimism, particularly here in The UAE.

Speaker 5

这是一种谨慎的乐观,但他们正努力营造一种一切如常的氛围。

It's cautious optimism, but they are trying to give a sense that things are normal.

Speaker 5

我不确定这里的人们究竟有多大程度上相信情况真的如此。

I don't know to what extent everyone here actually believes that is the case.

Speaker 5

这里的 Businesses 正遭受沉重打击。

Businesses are being absolutely hammered here.

Speaker 5

你已经看到很多人离开了。

You've seen a lot of people already leave.

Speaker 5

旅游业因此遭受重创。

Tourism is is being crippled as a result.

Speaker 5

开车上街,泰勒,你知道,安德鲁,你以前来过这里很多次。

Drive on the streets and Tyler, you know, you've been here Andrew, you've been here many times before.

Speaker 5

早晚高峰时,有时候根本没法通行,人们上下班来回穿梭。

It's impossible sometimes to move around in the morning and the evening where people are coming home from work and going to work.

Speaker 5

而现在,路上非常通畅。

And right now the roads are pretty clear.

Speaker 5

我可以从我在迪拜南部的当前位置,大约二十分钟内到达德拉和迪拜的老城区。

I can get from where I am here in the South Of Dubai over to Dehra and the old parts of Dubai in pretty much twenty minutes.

Speaker 5

在游客满载、满负荷运营的时候,这简直是不可想象的。

That's unheard of when you've got tourists and full capacity here.

Speaker 5

虽然这确实挺舒服的,我得承认,但这显然不是迪拜的常态。

So whilst that's been quite nice, I have to admit, it's obviously not what Dubai is about.

Speaker 5

所以,我认为所谓‘一切正常、照常进行’的说法,可能并不符合实际情况。

And so I think this idea of things are normal and carry on potentially isn't exactly what's happening on the ground.

Speaker 0

安德鲁和马库斯,我想请你们谈谈营销的力量。

Andrew and Marcus, I just want to bring you in on this, the power of power of marketing as well.

Speaker 0

马库斯,你即将前往新加坡授课。

Marcus, you're heading out to Singapore shortly to go and teach your classes out there.

Speaker 0

我的意思是,安德鲁,我觉得我们之前也提到过,人们总说,哦,你这是向东飞行。

I mean, one of these amazing things, Andrew, I think we were touching on this as well, and people say, oh, you know, you're flying eastbound.

Speaker 0

那你具体是怎么做到的呢?

Well, how are you doing it?

Speaker 0

人们几乎已经忘了还有所谓的超长航线或直飞航班。

And it's almost like people sort of forgotten that there are things called, you know, ultra long haul or long haul direct flights.

Speaker 0

卡塔尔、阿联酋、阿提哈德等航空公司通过出色的营销,成功提醒了大家:如果你想去东方,确实需要通过这些地方中转。

It's amazing what a good marketing job, you know, Qatar, Emirates, Etihad, you know, have done in reminding actually, oh, actually, if you wanna go east, you have to go and connect through these places.

Speaker 0

当然,这其中很多是价格策略,但同时也是品牌策略。

Now we know a lot of that is, of course, has been a price play, but, you know, but it's also been a a brand play as well.

Speaker 0

有人就说,你是怎么从曼谷回来的?我这周刚从曼谷回来。

It's like, and and someone said, well, how did you get I I came back from Bangkok this week.

Speaker 0

你是怎么从曼谷回来的?

How did you get back from Bangkok?

Speaker 0

瑞士航空每天都有航班,不是远程直飞,你知道的,哦,但你是怎么飞越海湾的?

Swiss flies every day, not long haul, nonstop, you know, and and it oh, but how did you get over The Gulf?

Speaker 0

那里,你知道,有一些航线是开放的,这些航空公司这样运营了十年,甚至二十年,这相当了不起。

There, you know, there there there there are traffic routes that that are open, and it's it's kind of remarkable that that a decade well, two decades of these airlines doing this.

Speaker 0

不知怎的,这种方式一直行得通,但我们也知道,即使不经过这些地方,我们照样能正常出行。

And and somehow it's it's worked, but yet we know that we can still function without having to fly by these places as well.

Speaker 3

我认为,长途航空公司的处境现在有点乐观。

I think the long haul players are smiling right now a little bit on the sunny side for them.

Speaker 3

我采访过新加坡航空的一位人士,他们对当前的局势感到些许欣慰。

I had an interview with somebody from Singapore Airlines and they enjoyed the situation a little bit.

Speaker 3

这并不是他们能获得的最好局面。

It's not the best that they could get in.

Speaker 3

这是一个地缘政治挑战,但对我来说,现在的国际旅行理念是:只要我能到达某个地方,而且没有旅行警告,我可能会选择直飞。

It's a geopolitical challenge, but I think the whole idea of international travel right now is for me like, okay, if I can get somewhere and there's not a travel warning, so I might be flying there directly.

Speaker 0

没错。

Exactly.

Speaker 0

而且这确实是。

And this is yeah.

Speaker 0

也许对那些手头有CFO头衔的管理者来说,并不是什么好消息或令人高兴的消息。

Maybe not sort of news and or happy news to the ears of people running who are you know, might have CFO on their business card.

Speaker 0

但安德鲁,关于这一点我也想说一下。

But but Andrew, just on that as as well.

Speaker 0

在你离开之前,安德鲁,我想简单聊一下,因为我们刚上架了一个新问题。

When you sort of look at and I just before before you go, Andrew, want to talk very, very briefly just about because we have a new issue, which has just hit newsstand as well.

Speaker 0

当我们考虑部署时,最近在发送我们的通讯并让它传播出去的过程中,你遇到什么困难了吗?还是说只是因为直飞航班而变得更贵了?

When we when we look at deployment, have you had have had had have you had any trouble, deploying our correspondence of late to to get out get out in the world, or or just it's just gonna be more expensive because they're flying direct nonstop?

Speaker 4

没有。

No.

Speaker 4

我昨晚听说有两个人刚从越南回来。

I I was in the last night where two two people had recently returned from, from Vietnam.

Speaker 4

他们原本打算乘坐一家海湾地区的航空公司返程。

They they were meant to be coming back with one of the Gulf carriers.

Speaker 4

他们的航班被取消了。

Their flights were canceled.

Speaker 4

他们能买到的唯一航班是经由中国返回。

They were the only flights they could get on were back via China.

Speaker 4

实际上,他们说机场人很多,都是和他们一样改道的人,结果降落在一些他们甚至不知道存在的城市。

And, actually, they they said that the the airports were pretty busy with people who doing the same thing, ending up in cities that they didn't even know existed, on the map.

Speaker 4

但事实上,因为中国仍能飞越俄罗斯,返程航班反而相当高效。

But, actually, the because China can still fly over Russia, the the flights back were actually pretty efficient.

Speaker 4

我这周通过工作认识的其他人,回澳大利亚时没有选择经由海湾地区,而是飞往洛杉矶,绕远路回去。

Other people I've met this week through work who returning to Australia, but instead of of heading via The Gulf, we're heading to LA and head heading back the long way round that way.

Speaker 4

所以我认为,过去存在的许多航线现在都消失了,我很惊讶航班价格涨得这么多。

So I think lots of these routes that used to be in existence in the past, and I think it's fascinating to know how much the the prices are going up for flights.

Speaker 4

你知道,完全不连贯的航班。

You know, a completely disconnected flight.

Speaker 4

上周来拜访我们的一位男士,在加利福尼亚的一家大型科技公司工作。

A gentleman who came to see us last week, works one of the big tech companies, in California.

Speaker 4

他原本想订一张从洛杉矶到伦敦的商务舱单程票,结果票价高达一万英镑。

He had wanted a single ticket in in business from from Los Angeles to London, and it ended up costing £10,000 for a single one way ticket.

Speaker 4

这纯粹是有些人趁机抬高价格,还找各种借口说事情有多严重。

And that's just, you know, people making the most of being able to gouge the prices and and claim all sorts of things are happening.

Speaker 4

由于这些主要枢纽关闭了,伦敦又奇怪地重新变得重要起来,就像你所说的,新加坡也是如此。

Because with with these epic hubs closed, London becomes a more important hub odd oddly again, as you were saying, like, likes of Singapore as well.

Speaker 4

因此,围绕这些动荡地区重新规划全球航线,真是令人着迷。

So the the remapping of the world around these trouble spots is fascinating.

Speaker 0

说到这个,安德鲁,你这周应该看到不少新闻稿了吧。

Now just just on that, Andrew, I mean, you you would you would have seen press releases this week.

Speaker 0

马库斯,正如你所说,安德鲁,新加坡航空曾经是最重要的中转枢纽之一,直到被海湾地区超越。

To your point, Marcus, about, you know, Singapore Airlines, as you said, Andrew, this was one of the the great connecting hubs until it was usurped by by The Gulf.

Speaker 0

但现在我们看到新加坡航空发布新闻稿,增加了飞往澳大利亚的运力,也增加了飞往你们那里以及全球各地的运力。

But now we saw a press release out from Singapore Airlines, you know, adding capacity to Australia, adding capacity into your adding capacity, you know, all over the world.

Speaker 0

而且,正如你所说,我觉得人们只是微微一笑。

And and, yeah, as you said, I think people sort of gently smiling.

Speaker 0

我认为同样的情况也适用于那些提到法兰克福作为枢纽的人。

I think the same would go for who who talked about Frankfurt being a hub.

Speaker 0

但同样,我觉得汉莎航空可能相当满意。

But again, yeah, I think Lufthansa is probably, you know, quite happy.

Speaker 0

我们最近也看到了香港的情况。

We saw the same thing with Hong Kong now as well.

Speaker 0

国泰航空正在增加运力。

Cathay Pacific, you know, all adding capacity.

Speaker 0

所以我们正在讨论这场变动中的赢家和输家。

So we're talking about sort of winners and losers, out of this.

Speaker 0

在你走之前,快速提一下,新一期杂志已经上架了。

And just quickly before you go, new issue, out on newsstand, just just out on newsstand.

Speaker 0

有三个理由,让人想买下这期杂志,或者让你为这期杂志感到自豪。

Three reason three reasons, why people might wanna pick up or why you're a proud daddy of this issue.

Speaker 4

好吧,我们不妨说,这期杂志包含了你对马克·卡尼的精彩长篇访谈,这种深度访谈正是我们在印刷媒体上擅长的,至今仍是一篇引人入胜且切中时弊的阅读内容。

Well, let's just say that it does have your your great interview with with Mark Carney, a long form interview, which is what we we we we do well in print, which is still a fascinating and pertinent read today.

Speaker 4

而且,我们还做了一篇关于使馆力量的精彩调查,探讨了外交官为何依然重要,我真的很喜欢这篇内容。

And, also, we have a great survey of the power of the embassy and why diplomats still matter, which I've really, really enjoyed.

Speaker 4

我们还做了一篇关于经销商世界的专题,讲述那些专门经销商如何成为你寻找从陨石到稀有腕表等各种物品的首选,以及收藏家们追踪这些珍品的渴望。

And we did a nice thing about the world of the the dealer, the the the specialist dealer who becomes the person you to go to for everything from meteorites to rare watches and about the the desire of collectors to track them down.

Speaker 4

但本期还有我们的时尚界前25名榜单,同时也有一些关于零售业现状的优质访谈,包括对布鲁明代尔百货首席执行官的专访,探讨这家百货公司如何努力逆势而上,成为美国第一家从亚洲汲取经验、自我革新并强势回归的百货商店。

But it's also our fashion top 25, and, also, we have some good interviews looking at what's happening in in retail, including one with the CEO of Bloomingdale's looking at how that department store is is trying to buck the trend to be the one US department store that begins to learn some lessons from Asia and refreshes itself and comes back fighting.

Speaker 0

感谢伦敦主编安德鲁·塔克的分享。

Andrew Tuck, our editor in chief in London, thank you very much, for that.

Speaker 0

因齐,我们在迪拜的记者,请稍等片刻,我们马上回来找你。

Inzee, our correspondent, in Dubai, if you could just hang on for one second, we'll come back to you.

Speaker 0

艾玛·尼尔森为您带来最新新闻头条。

Emma Nelson has the news headlines right now.

Speaker 6

非常感谢,泰勒。

Thank you very much indeed, Tyler.

Speaker 6

伊朗在也门的盟友胡塞武装威胁要扰乱红海南端的航运。

Iran's allies in Yemen, the Houthis, have threatened to disrupt shipping at the southern entrance to the Red Sea.

Speaker 6

周六,胡塞武装自一个月前伊朗战争爆发以来,首次对以色列发动了导弹袭击。

On Saturday, the Houthis carried out their first missile attacks on Israel since the Iran war began a month ago.

Speaker 6

法国内政部长将一起未遂的巴黎炸弹袭击与美以战争联系起来。

The French interior minister has linked a foiled bomb attack in Paris to the US Israeli war.

Speaker 6

警方周六逮捕了一名嫌疑人,当时他正准备在美国银行大楼前引爆一个自制爆炸装置。

Police arrested a suspect on Saturday as he is preparing to set off a homemade explosive device in front of the Bank of America building.

Speaker 6

澳大利亚维多利亚州已将整个四月的公共交通设为免费。

The Australian state of Victoria has made public transport free throughout April.

Speaker 6

此举旨在缓解由中东战争引发的燃油短缺和价格上涨问题。

It's in an effort to ease fuel shortages and rising prices caused by the war in The Middle East.

Speaker 6

瑞士一辆卡车上的超过40万块奇巧巧克力被盗,引发人们对供应短缺的担忧。

More than 400,000 Kit Kats have been stolen from a truck in Switzerland, leading to fears of a shortage.

Speaker 6

这些巧克力上周在从意大利运往波兰的过程中神秘消失。

The chocolate disappeared last week while being transported between Italy and Poland.

Speaker 6

今天,来自苏黎世的塔古斯·安茨格研究了当地当局从城市测速摄像头中获得的收入金额。

And today's Tagus Antziger coming out of Zurich has researched the amount of money earned by local authorities from speed cameras in the city.

Speaker 6

最赚钱的测速摄像头位于布兰德舍尔克大街上,那是一个半固定式摄像头,道路非常通畅。

The most lucrative speed camera is a semi stationary one on Brandschenkerstrasse, which is a clear route.

Speaker 6

苏黎世应用科学大学的一名交通心理学家呼吁增设更多标志,以提醒人们注意限速并改变驾驶习惯。

A traffic psychologist at the Zurich University of Applied Sciences has called for more signs to be put up to make people notice the limits and change their habits.

Speaker 6

以上就是今日的新闻摘要。

Those are the headlines.

Speaker 6

现在把镜头切回苏黎世的泰勒。

Back to you, Tyler, in Zurich.

Speaker 6

但我很好奇,你能猜出这个大型摄像头赚了多少钱吗?

But I was wondering if you could guess how much money that's big camera made.

Speaker 0

哦,我听说有些摄像头简直是印钞机。

Oh, I've heard some of them are complete cash cows.

Speaker 0

是的。

I yeah.

Speaker 0

那苏黎世总共赚了多少?

Is it what is the total number is that that Zurich takes?

Speaker 0

是1500万还是5000万,来自这些测速摄像头?

Is it 15 or 50,000,000 from some of these speed cameras?

Speaker 0

我的意思是,当然我们都讨厌测速摄像头,但苏黎世的这种摄像头特别让人感到威胁。

And I mean, of course, we all hate speed cameras, but there's something particularly menacing about the the Zurich variety.

Speaker 0

它们是巨大的灰色庞然大物。

They're these big gray hulking boxes.

Speaker 0

而且,你知道,它们并不小。

And and, you know, they're not small.

Speaker 0

我的意思是,它们几乎有两米高,底部非常庞大。

I mean, we're talking about something which is almost two meters tall, has an enormous base on it.

Speaker 0

我的意思是,你是不是也觉得,这些设备其实也可以卖给海湾国家,还有其他一些地方,比如用于早期预警系统。

I mean, it is it you also feel that actually you could probably sell these, to a gulf state as as well as some, you know, early detection Yeah.

Speaker 0

因为你知道,你不可能把它们推倒之类的。

Because, you know, you can't knock them over, etcetera.

Speaker 0

所以不管怎样,没人喜欢它们。

So anyway, no no one loves them.

展开剩余字幕(还有 239 条)
Speaker 0

马库斯有点在点头,但这个数字确实惊人。

Marcus is sort of, you know, is is nodding his head, but it it is an extraordinary number.

Speaker 0

想想看,是15万还是5000万?

Think is it is it is it 15 or 50,000,000?

Speaker 0

我不知道这个

I don't what the

Speaker 6

安齐格的标签在这上面真是大做文章,而且已经细化到相当程度了。

so the tag of Anziger has really gone to town on this, and it's and it's sort of gone quite granular.

Speaker 6

所以我认为我们没有一个总数。

So I don't think we have a a total number.

Speaker 6

但在三年内,布兰德申克街上的一个测速摄像头就收入了250万瑞士法郎。

But in three years, one single speed camera on Brandschenke Strasser gained 2,500,000.0 Swiss francs.

Speaker 6

仅这一条街,每年就接近100万瑞士法郎。

That's nearly CHF1,000,000 a year on one street alone.

Speaker 0

插一句关于这个。

Jump jump in on this.

Speaker 0

怎么能

How can

Speaker 3

我怎么插话?

I jump?

Speaker 3

我的意思是,这些机器最关键的是它们是灰色的。

I mean, the most critical thing about these machines is they are gray.

Speaker 3

它们是伪装的。

They are camouflaged.

Speaker 3

你根本看不到它们出现。

You don't see them coming.

Speaker 3

它们就那样静静地停在那里,被安放在你完全想不到的地方。

They are just there, and they put them around anywhere where you don't expect them.

Speaker 3

对我来说,这加起来就是苏黎世当前的交通状况——他们限制了你能行驶的车道等等。

And for for me, it adds up to the whole situation, traffic situation in Zurich right now, where they're limiting the lines that you can drive and all that stuff.

Speaker 3

我简单的想法是:乘坐公共交通工具,按政府和市政部门的要求去做,别开车。

My simple logic out of this is take the public transportation, do what the administration wants from you, the municipality, don't go by car.

Speaker 3

任何来苏黎世的人,都不要开车,不要打Uber,只坐公共交通工具,这样比什么都强。

Anybody that comes to Zurich, never take a car, don't take a Uber, just take public transportation, you're better off than anything else.

Speaker 0

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

我的意思是,没错,这座城市这一侧的左翼政府,确实开始占上风了。

I mean, yes, the the the this is where the the rather lefty government, in this this side of the city, definite definitely, starts starts to win.

Speaker 0

艾玛,我们现在要回迪拜了。

Emma, we're gonna head back to, to Dubai right now.

Speaker 0

因扎姆·拉希德,我们的记者。

Inzam Rashid, our correspondent.

Speaker 0

在我们走之前,我很好奇,你知道的,戈拉娜也提到了这一点,各种会谈正在发生或没有发生等等。

Is there just and just before, we we go, I'm I'm I'm curious, if we sort of look at, you know, and and Gorana was was touching on this as well, you know, a variety of talks happening, not happening, etcetera.

Speaker 0

如果你能展望一下今天,以及接下来的72小时,从调解的角度来看,哪些事情必须发生。

If you, maybe look ahead across today, across the next seventy two hours in terms of what has to happen from from a mediation perspective.

Speaker 0

当然,很多人在讨论,地面入侵到底什么时候会发生?

And then, of course, you know, a lot of discussion about, you know, when when is this ground invasion going to happen?

Speaker 0

会发生吗?

Will it happen?

Speaker 0

但你对这些事情的看法。

But but your take on things.

Speaker 5

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 5

我可能真得听听这些建议,坐坐公共交通,因为我现在有大约4000迪拉姆的罚款待缴,原因是在这里,每20米左右就有一个测速摄像头。

I might just have to take some of that public transport advice because I've got about 4,000 dirhams worth of fines pending, and that's because that's because out here, you've got, speed cameras every 20 meters or so.

Speaker 5

顺便说一下,现在正在打仗。

Anyways, by the by, there's a war going on.

Speaker 5

而且,我认为我们目前也正处于这场冲突的一个非常危险的时刻,泰勒,你说得对。

And look, I think I think we're at a very precarious moment of this conflict as well, Tyler, because you're right.

Speaker 5

一方面,正如我提到的,可能会有重要的谈判正在进行,由巴基斯坦调解,美国和伊朗都在与巴基斯坦接触,尽管特朗普总统似乎认为这些谈判进展顺利。

On one hand, you've got potential serious negotiations happening as I mentioned, mediated by Pakistan, The US and Iran are both talking to Pakistan even though President Trump seems that these talks are going well.

Speaker 5

伊朗表示他们没有直接与美国对话,但讨论仍在进行中。

Iran is saying that they aren't talking directly to The US but there are still discussions happening.

Speaker 5

所以一方面你有这种情况。

So you have that on one side.

Speaker 5

但另一方面,成千上万的美军正抵达该地区,而且还有不同类型的部队。

But then on the other hand you you've got thousands of US troops arriving to this region and different forms of troops as well.

Speaker 5

过去几天,我一直在与这里的一些分析师交谈,他们表示,这表明可能会有某种地面入侵或攻击。

And I've been speaking to analysts over the last few days based out here, and they've said it points to some form of ground invasion, some form of attack.

Speaker 5

主要目标是试图打通霍尔木兹海峡,正如戈拉娜早前在节目中提到的,还可能针对格拉纳岛并占领该地,因为伊朗约90%的石油产量目前都储存在那里,且主要从这里出口。

The first site mainly being trying to get the Strait Of Hormuz open potentially also as Gorana mentioned earlier in the show targeting Karg Island and occupying that where around 90% of Iran's oil production is currently stored and that's where it mainly is exported from.

Speaker 5

因此,对这一要道形成封锁将严重打击伊朗经济。

So kind of having a chokehold on that would be crippling for Iran's economy.

Speaker 5

所以一方面,谈判可能取得突破;但另一方面,这场战争却变得越来越混乱、越来越危险。

So you have essentially on one side potential breakthrough of negotiations, but then the other side of this war getting messier, getting a lot more dangerous.

Speaker 5

与此同时,泰勒,你今晚所到的阿联酋和海湾国家,他们希望这场战争结束,但他们不希望只是停火、美军撤离后一切恢复如一个月前那样。

And then in the meantime, Tyler, where you're coming to tonight, The UAE and the The Gulf States, they are they are hoping for this war to end, but they want it to end not just as a as a ceasefire in The US leave and everything goes back to the way it was a month ago.

Speaker 5

他们希望战争结束时,伊朗不再拥有导弹能力。

They wanted to end without Iran having missile capability.

Speaker 5

他们不希望一个危险的伊朗成为邻国。昨晚我与一位非常高级的阿联酋官员交谈,他告诉我,阿联酋和其他海湾国家希望实现政权更迭。

They do not want a dangerous Iran as a neighbour and I was speaking to a very very senior UAE Official last night and their words were to me that The UAE and other Gulf States want regime change.

Speaker 5

问题是,他们该如何实现这一点?

The question is, how do they go about getting that?

Speaker 5

因为在我看来,也是许多分析人士的看法,唯一可行的方式是派遣地面部队,推翻当前的伊朗领导层。

Because the only way that I can see that that's possible and many analysts see that's possible is by actually having troops on the ground taking out this current Iranian leadership.

Speaker 5

我们甚至不知道新领导人现在在哪里。

We don't even know where the new guy currently is.

Speaker 5

而这意味着美国必须在这里长期驻留,数月甚至数年,以推动这一政权更迭,从而让海湾国家获得某种安全保障。

And actually that would mean The US has to stay here for a considerable amount of time, months, even years to try and get this regime change, meaning that The Gulf States can live in some sort of safety and security.

Speaker 0

在我们结束之前,还有一个重要问题:伊朗的武器库被严重误判或误读的程度有多大?

Just, before we go and and and a big component of this, is, of course, how how much of a of a misstep or a misread was there on the Iranian arsenal?

Speaker 0

因齐格、戈拉娜,我先从你们开始。

Inzig, Gorana Grgi, I'll start with you.

Speaker 0

当然,在最初的48到72小时内,主流说法是,没错,基地已被摧毁,我们已经摧毁了他们80%的打击能力。

You know, with the narrative, of course, in the first forty eight hours, seventy two hours that, you know, yes, bases had been decimated, and, you know, we we've, you know, we've knocked out 80% of of of their ability to strike.

Speaker 0

我的意思是,当然,如你所说,警报一直在响。

Well, I mean, of course, Inzia, as you're saying, alarms are going off all the time.

Speaker 0

无人机、巡航导弹和导弹仍然在突破防线。

Drones, cruise missiles, missiles are are still getting through.

Speaker 0

现在似乎出现了这种情况。

Now there seems to be this well.

Speaker 0

哦,是的。

Oh, yeah.

Speaker 0

有些地方更难到达,比如山区。

There's there's some harder to reach places, in the mountains.

Speaker 0

实际上,这些——你知道的,尤其是无人机,都是装在皮卡后面的。

Oh, actually, these these, you know, these, of course, particularly the drones, they're they're on the back of a pickup truck.

Speaker 0

它们会不断移动。

They do move around.

Speaker 0

它们的机动性很强。

They're highly mobile.

Speaker 0

我的意思是,他们怎么会判断得这么离谱?

Like, one side going, like, how how could they have read it so wrong?

Speaker 0

人们已经长期关注伊朗了。

People have been watching Iran for a very long time.

Speaker 0

你的感觉,以及你所接触的人,是否认为伊朗在武器库方面仍然有相当大的余地或发射能力?

Your sense, the people you're talking to, is there is there still considerable, quite literally, runway or launch capacity, when it comes to the arsenal that Iran has?

Speaker 1

我的意思是,我们现在需要花几个小时,来讲一讲帝国的历史。

I mean, we would need now a couple of hours for a long history, lesson of how empires

Speaker 0

我们只有九十分钟了。

We've got ninety minute.

Speaker 0

我们只剩下十九分钟了。

We've got nineteen minutes.

Speaker 0

我们一会儿还得赶去德里。

We've we've got to get to Delhi in a moment as well.

Speaker 0

但是

But

Speaker 1

不。

No.

Speaker 1

但是,对。

But, yep.

Speaker 1

简而言之,这是一场非对称战争,无论这些盟友,或者美国和以色列多么强大、装备多么精良,都无关紧要。

In in, the very shortest, this is an asymmetric war, and it doesn't matter if the, you know, if these, allies or, you know, US and Israel are, much more capable, way better equipped.

Speaker 1

他们面对的是一方极度渴望生存的政权,该政权拥有主场优势,以及其独特的地缘政治优势。

They are fighting a war where on the other side, have a regime that's super interested in just surviving, that, has the advantage of being on the home field, that has the advantage of the political geography that it enjoys.

Speaker 1

你已经提到过一些地形的具体特点。

You already mentioned some of the specificities of terrain.

Speaker 1

而且,从越南到阿富汗,美国有着漫长的历史,一直在打这类本质上是非对称的战争,却始终无法取胜。

And then we have a long history of The United States from Vietnam all the way to Afghanistan, right, fighting these wars that are essentially asymmetric in nature and not being able to prevail.

Speaker 1

这其中的原因多种多样。

And there are different reasons for that.

Speaker 1

我们可以深入探讨反叛乱理论等等。

We can go into theories of counterinsurgency and all that.

Speaker 1

但这就是关键所在。

But that's that's the thing.

Speaker 1

导致这一切的原因,是那种对所谓‘委内瑞拉模式’的傲慢混合——以为这会是一场类似‘震慑与敬畏’式的行动,能够通过斩首政权首脑来轻易实现政权更迭,而我们现在显然看出这是一种彻底的误判。

What led to it was this sort of mix of hubris over this sort of whatever we want to call the Venezuela model, you know, that this is going to be something that's kind of shock and aweish and that, you know, you'll be able to buy decapitate the decapitating the main guy right from the helm of the regime somehow induced regime change, which is a complete misread as we see now.

Speaker 1

而且,我们正一步步升级对抗:伊朗正竭尽全力利用其对霍尔木兹海峡这一贸易要道的控制权,以及在波斯湾周边的袭击行动,扩大冲突范围,提高各方的成本。

And again, we have these steps that are going up the escalation ladder where Iran is doing everything it can to use the leverage that it does have over the choke point that is trade of Hormuz over the attacks around the Persian Gulf, expanding this, raising costs for everyone.

Speaker 1

现在,许多人担心,在我们达成某种虚无缥缈的政治解决方案之前,局势还会再升级一步;而目前,这种解决方案也极为渺茫,因为伊朗革命卫队目前仍垄断着伊朗的暴力使用权。

And now what a lot of people fear is that we are going to climb yet another step before we even get to some sort of mystical political solution to this, which at the moment is also quite elusive because, again, IRGC is the one that has the monopoly on the use of violence in Iran at the moment.

Speaker 1

即使真有像巴列维王子这样被视为反对派潜在领袖的人物出现,他们也无法掌控这些武器,对吧?

And even if there was, you know, the Shah's son is the kind of presumptive leader of this opposition coming, they don't have access to those weapons, right?

Speaker 1

如果你希望结束这场冲突,它也可能再次演变成类似去年12月底、今年1月初我们所看到的那种局面。

Like if you want to end this could descend also into something that again is just a repeat of what we've seen over late December, early January.

Speaker 1

因此,从这个角度看,我们经常谈论美国和以色列取得的一些战术胜利,这确实没错。

So in this sense, you know, we talk a lot about some of the tactical victories that US and Israel have achieved, and that's for sure.

Speaker 1

但从政治层面来看,这远未尘埃落定,而且目前看来,似乎没有简单或优雅的出路。

But politically, this is far from being a settled thing and it doesn't seem like there is an easy or elegant way out.

Speaker 1

所以很多人只是希望,特朗普看到股市发生的情况,以及美国今年下半年即将来临的中期选举,这些因素可能会施加一些压力。

So a lot of people are just hoping that Trump seeing what's happening on the stock markets, right, with the looming midterms in The United States in the second half of the year that these might be some of the factors that that actually put the kind of pressure down.

Speaker 1

但你知道,接下来的几周,就像新冠时期我们说的‘接下来几周至关重要’一样,现在所有这些部队都已调动进入中东。

But you know, the next couple of weeks similar to COVID times when we said like the next couple of weeks are crucial, but truly with the movement of all of these troops now into into the Middle East.

Speaker 1

局势看起来更可能是升级不可避免,而非缓和。

It's looking more like escalation is bound to occur rather than de escalation.

Speaker 0

再说到新冠这个点,这似乎是一个适合从事新闻信息图表工作的人关注的时期,比如我在迪拜和阿布扎比的《国家报》。

And then just taking the COVID point, this sort of seems to be a period for if you're in the world of infographics working for a newspaper, I'm thinking about The National, in in in Dubai in in Abu Dhabi.

Speaker 0

我会鼓励任何人去看看,因为他们正在发布一个每日实时数据追踪。

Would encourage anyone to look at this because they're they're they're they're running sort of a daily ticker.

Speaker 0

这有点像新冠期间感染和死亡人数的激增曲线。

It's a little bit, of course, like the spikes in infections and and deaths during COVID.

Speaker 0

但确实如此。

But Yeah.

Speaker 0

他们在阿布扎比追踪的是:每天有多少架无人机、多少枚巡航导弹、多少枚导弹,你就在看着这条曲线。

What they're running there, Inzia, is is, of course, how many drones, how many cruise missiles, how many missiles every day, and and you're watching sort of this graph.

Speaker 0

现在很明显可以看到,当然,情况确实已经大大缓解了。

Now it is quite remarkable to see that, of course, it it has really come down.

Speaker 0

但尽管如此,每天仍然不乏拦截和发射行动,不一定是有空袭,但确实在发生。

But nevertheless, there every day, though, there are still not necessarily strikes, but there's certainly inter interceptions and and launches.

Speaker 0

看到这一切真是令人惊叹。

And it's it's it's amazing, to see.

Speaker 0

我只想简单回溯一下,可能用不到一分钟。

I just go back to and just very quickly in the in, maybe one minute or less.

Speaker 0

你和阿联酋的人交谈时,知道你们当然在寻求政权更迭。

Your sense talking to people in The UAE, knowing, as you said, of course, looking for regime change.

Speaker 0

但这种感觉,你知道,是不是被误解了?他们的军备到底还有多深?

But that sense, you know, has this been been read wrong and and how deep is the arsenal still?

Speaker 0

因为当然,每个人都会松一口气。

Because, of course, everyone will breathe a sigh of relief.

Speaker 0

当这些无人机不再朝海湾地区的主要城市飞来时,你的日常生活在某种程度上自然会恢复,你知道的。

Your Normality will come back to some extent, of course, you know, when these drones, you know, stop, you know, buzzing towards, you know, major cities in The Gulf.

Speaker 5

是的,我认为新闻机构中的图形团队无疑是最忙碌的,联合国可能也是如此。

Yeah, I think the graphics team in in newsrooms have definitely been the busiest and probably in the UN as well.

Speaker 5

看起来联合国其他部门都相当安静。

It seems like the rest of the UN has been pretty quiet.

Speaker 5

但具体到这一局势的发展,海湾国家显然在观察美国处理这场战争的方式,这实际上提供了一份关于如何不应发动战争的范本。

But but specifically on on how this how this has played out, it feels that the Gulf countries have really looked at The US and and the way that they have gone about this war and essentially this is a playbook on on how not to go to war.

Speaker 5

这也不是什么新鲜事。

It's it's it's not anything new either.

Speaker 5

历史可能正在重演,我认为海湾国家在任何缓和措施之后,都会重新评估与美国的关系,尤其是在这场冲突真正平息之后——但正如戈拉娜所提到的,未来几周局势依然岌岌可危。

History potentially repeating itself and I think the Gulf countries will be really also reevaluating their relationship with The US post any de escalation post any calmness of of this conflict actually taking place but but it is a precarious couple of weeks ahead as Gorana has mentioned.

Speaker 5

我们还必须记住,尽管有关缓和的会谈正在进行,但以色列实际上正在加大对伊朗的攻击力度。

What we've also got to remember as well is that whilst these talks and discussions are going on of de escalation, we're finding that Israel is in fact ramping up its level of attacks towards Iran.

Speaker 5

你可能会看到一个以色列政府会自行其是,走上一条追求政权更迭的道路,无论采取何种方式,这都将成为他们自己的使命。

You will probably find an Israel state that will go rogue, will go on their own path of of wanting this regime change and however they go about it, that will be their own their own mission of doing that.

Speaker 5

因此,即使美国决定让唐纳德·特朗普摆脱当前的困境,以色列也可能自行其是,走自己的路。

So even if The US does decide to to get out of this box that Donald Trump finds himself in, then you may well find Israel going off and doing their own thing.

Speaker 5

所以,现在这个地方并不好受。

So look it's not a very comfortable place to be right now.

Speaker 5

人们感到害怕。

People are scared.

Speaker 5

这可不是假话。

That's that's not a lie.

Speaker 5

人们正在离开这个地区。

People are leaving this region.

Speaker 5

我们看到无人机和导弹飞入这个国家。

We are seeing drones and missiles fly into this country.

Speaker 5

昨晚,即使在过去几天有所放缓之后,这个数字仍然急剧上升。

Last night we we saw that number rise that increased drastically even after a kind of a slowdown over the last few days.

Speaker 5

我认为在未来几周,人们会仰望天空,特别是关注那些信息图,以了解局势会变得多么危险。

And I think people will be looking to the skies and particularly looking at those infographics over the next couple of weeks just to see how dangerous the situation gets.

Speaker 5

泰勒。

Tyler.

Speaker 0

我们的记者因扎姆·拉希德在迪拜为我们报道。

Inzam Rashid, our correspondent there in Dubai, for us.

Speaker 0

明天我们一定会再跟进。

We'll be catching up, tomorrow, no doubt.

Speaker 0

现在苏黎世时间是10点47分,而我们即将前往的新德里时间是14点17分。

At 10:47, here, in Zurich, it is at fourteen seventeen, in New Delhi where we're heading, right now.

Speaker 0

我们的记者林迪·普里基特正在当地为我们现场报道。

Our correspondent there, Lindy Prickitt, is on the ground for us.

Speaker 0

莉迪,也许你能为我们描绘一幅更乐观的图景,就在这个周日?

Maybe you paint a sunnier picture for us, on, this Sunday, Lyndee?

Speaker 2

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 2

出人意料的是,天空有点阴沉,但在南亚地区,这种天气反而让人感觉像晴天,因为大家都喜欢从酷热中稍作喘息。

Surprisingly, it is a little overcast, but here in the subcontinent, that's that's kind of the sunny day feeling you get because everybody likes a little reprieve from the heat.

Speaker 2

所以天气炎热而湿润,但很舒适。

So it is hot and balmy but pleasant.

Speaker 0

那么,如果我们重新审视一下新闻格局,《印度斯坦时报》、《印度时报》,还有其他媒体,你打算从哪里开始?

So if we're to, maybe re survey the the news landscape, the Hindustan Times, the Times of India, any any other outlets, where where do you wanna start?

Speaker 0

现在有什么新闻?

What's making news right now?

Speaker 2

哦,和往常一样,印度的焦点始终是各政党之间的政治博弈。

Oh, well, as ever, India is all about the political play between its political parties.

Speaker 2

在这样一个庞大的国家,几乎任何时候都有人前往投票站,这是因为印度独特的选举制度将28个邦的选举错开进行。

And at almost any given moment, somewhere in this massive country, people are heading to polls because of its unique system of staggering its 28 state elections.

Speaker 2

它们不会同时举行,因为要为14亿人组织这样的选举将是极其庞大的工程。

So they're not all happening at once because that would be a mammoth operation for 1,400,000,000 people.

Speaker 2

所以目前,我们有几个非常重要且具有政治意义的邦正在举行选举。

So right now, we have a couple or several pretty big and politically important states.

Speaker 2

我们有泰米尔纳德邦、西孟加拉邦、喀拉拉邦,以及其他几个邦正在投票。

We've got Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Kerala, and a few others, going to, the polls.

Speaker 2

这些选举正受到密切关注。

And they're being closely watched.

Speaker 2

尽管这是州级选举,但它们却是对总理莫迪及其所属政党印度人民党(BJP)受欢迎程度的反映。

Even though it's a state election, they are an indicator of the popularity of prime minister Modi and his party, the BJP.

Speaker 2

它们还揭示了更深层的趋势和更细致的转变,不仅体现在选民及其关注的关键议题和趋势上,还体现在政党与联盟之间至关重要的权力博弈中。

They also revealed deeper trends, more granular shifts, not just in the voters or the issues and trends that really matter to them, but those crucial power plays between political parties and alliances.

Speaker 2

这里有个有趣的小知识给你。

Here's a little fun fact for you.

Speaker 2

这个国家有2800个被认可的政党。

There are 2,800 recognized parties in this country.

Speaker 2

因此,联盟之间的权力变动在这里至关重要。

So the power shift in play between alliances is everything here.

Speaker 0

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

我认为马库斯作为一名营销人员,听到有2800个政党需要传递他们的信息,一定会很喜欢这个想法。

I think Marcus loves this idea as as a marketer, you know, hearing that there's there's room there's 2,800 parties, Marcus, that need to to to to, of course, yeah, get get their message, out there.

Speaker 0

但我是林迪,我很好奇,当你思考这些原则时,确实如此。

But I'm Lyndee, I'm I'm curious just just on that when you sort of think about principles, you know, there's yeah.

Speaker 0

当然,当你谈到这一长尾部分时,我们可能并不是在讨论很多选票,但我们关注的是原则。

Of course, when you get to sort of the long tail of that, we're we're probably not talking about a lot of votes, but we sort of look at at the principle.

Speaker 0

我很好奇关于竞选活动,它究竟是户外广告,还是出现在你屏幕上的内容。

And I'm I'm curious just about what campaigning, and whether that is whether that is, of course, out of home, whether it's what pops up on your screen.

Speaker 0

它看起来是什么样子?

What is what does it look like?

Speaker 0

它可能又是什么声音?

What and and maybe sound like.

Speaker 2

印度是一个政治参与度极高的国家。

Well, India is such a politically active state country.

Speaker 2

我觉得早上散步时特别有趣的一点是,你仍然能看到几乎每个人都在看报纸,涵盖各个社会阶层。

One of the things that I think is so interesting about walking through the streets early in the morning is you still see just about everyone with a newspaper, and it could be all demographics.

Speaker 2

而在许多国家,可能只有精英阶层或中产阶级才会关注新闻、政治,关心并去投票。

So whereas, you know, in many countries, it's just maybe an elite that that read about the news and the politics and care and and get out and vote or or the middle class.

Speaker 2

但在这里,每个人都很关注各政党将为他们做些什么。

Here, it's everyone because everyone is so invested in in what the parties are gonna do for them.

Speaker 2

所以总是有各种议论。

So there is there's always chatter.

Speaker 2

总是有讨论。

There's always talk.

Speaker 2

当你去一些邦时,我最近刚去过喀拉拉邦,那里你看到的每一块广告牌、每面墙都贴满了政治海报。

When you go to some states, I was just recently in Kerala, the every bull billboard sort of wall that you see is covered with political posters.

Speaker 2

事实上,这个邦是全印度政治海报最多的地区。

In fact, it's a state that has the most political posters everywhere.

Speaker 2

当你看到锤子和镰刀时,总觉得有点奇怪,因为共产党在那里执政了很长时间,至今仍具有强大影响力,就像在即将举行选举的西孟加拉邦一样。

It's always a little weird too when you see the hammer and and sickle because the the communist were were ruling there for so long and are still a really strong influence as they are in, West Bengal, which is also going to the polls.

Speaker 2

玛姆塔·班纳吉在那里是一位非常强势的女性。

Mamta Banerjee is a very strong woman there.

Speaker 2

她属于特里纳姆大会党,一直致力于团结广泛的社群联盟。

She's with Trinimall Congress, and she continues to draw on a broad coalition of communities.

Speaker 2

因此,印度所展现的身份政治,就像在许多其他地方一样,最终成为一个热门话题。

So that ends up being quite the hot topic is, the identity politics that, plays out in India as as it does in so many different places.

Speaker 2

当然,还有经济问题。

And, of course, the economy.

Speaker 2

尽管印度的GDP增长速度可能超过世界上许多其他国家,但普通民众仍然面临就业短缺的问题,这成为一个关键议题。

While India might be growing more than many other, countries around the world in terms of its GDP, there's still jobs, shortages for a lot of the common people, and it becomes an issue.

Speaker 2

所以人们都想参与到印度的增长故事中来。

So people wanna be part of the India growth story.

Speaker 2

因此,‘你能为我做些什么’就成了他们决定投票给谁时最大的考量。

So that sort of what are you gonna do for me, is is the big writer when it comes to who they're gonna vote for.

Speaker 0

也许就就业增长这个话题来说,到目前为止,这个节目已经带有一些航空主题的色彩。

Maybe just on the topic of of jobs growth, there's a big well, in this this show so far, as you've heard, has had a bit of an aviation theme.

Speaker 0

你还会看到一个重要的新机场,即将在德里郊外开通。

You've got a a significant, new airport, as as well, which is, about to, open just, outside Delhi.

Speaker 0

这个机场某种程度上被定位为第二个枢纽,就像 JFK 和纽瓦克、希思罗和盖特威克,或者巴黎的戴高乐机场与奥利机场那样。

Sort of, I guess, being positioned as sort of as a second hub, you know, if you sort of think of JFK and then and then Newark or or Heathrow and then and then Gatwick or Paris with Charles de Gaulle and Orly.

Speaker 0

那里的情况也是类似的。

The same situation there.

Speaker 0

所以,这显然是一个庞大的建设项目。

So, obviously, massive construction project.

Speaker 0

当然,新机场的开通会创造新的就业机会。

Of course, new air airports opening create new jobs.

Speaker 0

这个项目得到了怎样的反响?

How is this, being received?

Speaker 0

因为,我们也知道,印度正在交付的新机场订单数量,几乎和该国多家航空公司订购的飞机数量一样令人惊叹。

Because, I mean, we know also just the the, let's say, the the order book for new airports being delivered, in, in India is almost as breathtaking as the number of aircraft, that are being ordered by by, you know, many of the nation's airlines.

Speaker 2

确实如此。

Absolutely.

Speaker 2

没错。

Absolutely.

Speaker 2

作为一个经常出行的人,我非常期待德里主要机场——英迪拉·甘地国际机场的拥堵状况能因此得到一些缓解。

And somebody who who's a frequent traveler, I'm I'm very excited to see that there's gonna be a little bit of relief to Delhi's main airport, Indira Gandhi International Airport.

Speaker 2

这只是一个开始。

And this is one opening.

Speaker 2

正如你所说,这有点像印度的盖特威克机场,或者更准确地说,是德里的盖特威克。

As you say, it's kind of like India's, Gatwick Airport, or I should say Delhi's Gatwick.

Speaker 2

它是一个卫星城,实际上德里周围有好几个卫星城,因为德里实在太大了。

It's a satellite city called well, there's there's several satellite cities around, Delhi because it's so huge.

Speaker 2

所以这并不是诺伊达。

So this isn't Noida.

Speaker 2

而是更大一些的 Greater Noida,位置更靠外一些。

It's Greater Noida, which is even a little bit further out.

Speaker 2

但在第一阶段,它预计每年可处理1200万乘客,也就是每天约150个航班。

But in its first phase, it expects to handle 12,000,000 passengers a year with that's about a 150 flights a day.

Speaker 2

作为对比,盖特威克机场每年处理4000万乘客,希思罗机场则是其两倍。

Now for comparison, Gatwick handles 40,000,000 passengers, and Heathrow twice that.

Speaker 2

但对诺伊达的规划规模很大。

But the plans for Neuida are big.

Speaker 2

他们希望它最终能达到希思罗机场的容量。

They want it to grow to Heathrow capacity.

Speaker 2

而且这不仅仅关乎拥堵问题,虽然缓解拥堵也是个不错的好处。

And it's not just about, congestion, which would be a nice thing.

Speaker 2

正如我所说,作为旅客,我期待它能带来的便利。

As I say, as a traveler, I'm I'm looking forward to the relief it will give.

Speaker 2

但这座新机场还被定位为物流和贸易枢纽,配有货运设施和高效的公路连接,旨在更高效地贯通北印度地区。

But this new airport is being positioned as a logistics and trade hub as well with cargo facilities and strong road links designed to connect North India more efficiently.

Speaker 2

你可以说,南印度在这方面已经走得比较靠前了——恕我用个双关语——而北印度现在才开始迎头赶上,改善其道路和基础设施。

You could argue that South India has kind of, forgive the pun, but been on that road a bit already, whereas North India is kind of bringing up its game and getting its roads and infrastructure better.

Speaker 2

因此,这是印度为更高效、大规模地建设基础设施而推行的更广泛举措的一部分,因为它希望在全球范围内具备竞争力。

So it's it's part of a broader push by India to build infrastructure more efficiently and at scale because it wants to compete globally.

Speaker 2

不过我得说,它目前并不会缓解我们正在面临的航空旅行难题,也短期内难以挑战中东的枢纽机场。

I have to say, though, it it won't necessarily offer any relief right now to the challenges that we're having with air travel, and it won't really even challenge the Middle Eastern hubs anytime soon.

Speaker 2

但最终,它希望抢占更多全球中转交通的份额,而它确实有这个优势,因为它地处欧洲和东南亚之间。

But eventually, it hopes to capture a greater share of the global transit traffic, and it will because it sits between Europe and Southeast Asia.

Speaker 2

所以他们希望它能参与全球竞争。

So they want it to compete globally.

Speaker 2

这些就是宏伟的计划。

Those those are the big plans.

Speaker 2

而且,是的,会创造大量就业机会。

And, yes, loads of jobs.

Speaker 2

顺便提一下,这个地方已经建成了。

And just as a little interesting aside, it's it's out.

Speaker 2

这个地区,即大诺伊达,几年前还是一片农田。

This this area, Greater Noida, is out where just a few years ago, that was farmland.

Speaker 2

因此,这是一个非常有趣的实验场,展示了在短短几年内就完成的开发,而这种发展在其他国家可能需要数十年才能自然实现。

So it's a really interesting petri dish of of that development that just takes place within just a few years instead of over decades that it might have more naturally taken place, in in other countries.

Speaker 0

也许我们应该关注一下房地产。

Maybe we should be looking at real estate.

Speaker 0

我们的记者林迪·普里基特在新德里为我们报道。

Lyndee Prickitt, our correspondent, in New Delhi, there for us.

Speaker 0

非常感谢。

Thank you very much.

Speaker 0

差不多快到节目尾声了。

Just coming out almost up to the to the end of the program.

Speaker 0

马库斯,我们刚才说你要去新加坡了。

Marcus, we were saying you're you're heading off to to Singapore.

Speaker 0

这有点像对比一下,你知道,你将带着学生去那里十天,考察那个市场。

A bit of a, you know, a compare and and contrast, because you're going down to, of course, I guess, ten days, with students, to look at that market.

Speaker 0

当你现在坐在欧洲,观察我们如何推广本土和全球品牌,与你抵达后所看到的情况相比,是什么让你感到兴奋?

What excites you when you sort of you sit in Europe right now and see, of course, how we are marketing, you know, both domestic and global brands versus what you see when you arrive.

Speaker 0

当然,你在新加坡,这里是东南亚的心脏,经济和商业枢纽。

Of course, you're in Singapore, heart of Southeast Asia, you know, economic and certainly hub engine.

Speaker 0

是什么让你对它感到兴奋?

What excites you about it?

Speaker 0

你希望向你的学生传达些什么呢?

What what do you want your to sort of, I guess, get across to your students as well?

Speaker 3

学生们已经拿到了他们的任务,他们将就某些主题拍摄视频。

Well, the students have got their assignment already, and they will be shooting a video on certain topics.

Speaker 3

我特别关注的一个主题是本地品牌如何在新加坡与日益崛起的全球大品牌竞争。

And one of the topics that I'm really looking for is local brands competing against the big global ones in Singapore, which are coming up more and more.

Speaker 3

还有另一个让我非常兴奋的主题。

And there's another one that I'm really excited about.

Speaker 3

目前,新加坡某些地区已经推出了无人机送餐服务,我很好奇当无人机飞来为你送上汉堡等食物时,人们会有什么反应。

They introduced drone delivery for food in a certain part of Singapore right now, and I'm really curious how people are reacting to this when the drone comes in and brings you your burgers and all that stuff.

Speaker 3

在这方面,我总是告诉我的学生:不要只看世界地图的左边,要看向右边,理解亚洲是如何运转的,尽可能深入地了解他们如何适应新技术,如何围绕当今世界面临的挑战调整生活方式,并试着领悟——是的,亚洲的运转方式与众不同,对他们来说,这是一场为期五天的密集项目。

And on that behalf, what I'm always trying to tell my students is don't look to the left on world map, look to the right and understand how Asia is ticking and try to get out of it as much as you can, how they are adopting to new technologies, how they are arranging their lives around the challenges that we have in the world and trying to get a glimpse on, yeah, Asia is ticking differently, and for them, it's five days of intense program.

Speaker 0

而且

And

Speaker 3

在项目结束时,我们参观了奔驰等品牌的客户体验中心。

at the end of the program, we've been visiting customer experience centers from Mercedes and all that stuff.

Speaker 3

我希望他们回到欧洲后能明白,接触亚洲有三种方式:要么为一家亚洲公司工作,要么你的最大竞争对手是亚洲企业,要么你自己亲自去亚洲体验。

And I hope they get back to Europe and understand that there are three ways of getting in touch with Asia, is either you're working for an Asian company, be your biggest competitor might be Asian, or you are tapping yourself in going to Asia.

Speaker 3

也许经过这五天后,至少有一半的学生会在新加坡或东南亚地区找到实习机会。

And maybe after those five days, at least, 50% of the students will pick up an internship somewhere around Singapore and Southeast Asia.

Speaker 3

这将是我的目标。

That would be my objective.

Speaker 0

戈拉娜,你要酒还是无人机送的?

Gorana, do you want the wine or the of the drone?

Speaker 0

运送任何东西吗?

Delivering anything?

Speaker 0

我也在想,我们谈到一个混合的世界。

I also sort of wonder we talk about a sort of a hybrid world.

Speaker 0

那些经历过冲突的国家,你和大家都提到,现在在海湾地区的人们都会提到迎面而来的无人机的声音。

Countries that have been living through conflict, and you and and everyone sort of talks about anyone who's in, you know, in in The Gulf right now talks about the the sound of of of incoming drones.

Speaker 0

我在想,这是否就是你在优食(Uber Eats)世界中想要的方式。

I'm wondering if that's the way you what you're gonna wanna be in a world of Uber Eats.

Speaker 0

向前发展。

Moving forward.

Speaker 1

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

我忍不住笑了,因为这正是无人机作为双重用途技术的真正例证。

I I had to smile because this is a true example of drone is a dual use technology.

Speaker 1

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 1

是的。

Yes.

Speaker 1

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

就像一把刀,你知道,你可以用它来切面包,或者希望不要用来伤害任何人。

Just as a knife, you know, like, you can use it to cut a bread or hopefully not kill anyone.

Speaker 1

但没错,这正是我们看到这种技术可能被用于极端用途的例子之一。

But, yeah, this is one of the examples where we do see the kind of extremes of what this sort of technology can be used for.

Speaker 1

我的意思是,无人机在农业中也非常有用,比如对吧?

I mean, drones are also super useful in agriculture, for instance, right?

Speaker 1

比如覆盖那些 otherwise 无法覆盖或需要耗费大量人力和资本的区域。

Like covering areas that couldn't be otherwise or would be way more labor and capital intensive.

Speaker 1

所以我希望看到一个更多使用无人机进行食品配送或快速物流的世界,而不是一个总是把无人机视为死亡与破坏代理的世界。

So I would like to see a world where we do more of drone food delivery or, you know, like fast shipping and so on, rather than a world where we talk about drones, of course, as sort of agents or proxies of death and destruction.

Speaker 1

但我不想以这个话题结束。

But I don't want to leave on this note.

Speaker 1

我想换个话题,因为我们提到了乌克兰和联合国,而下周,有趣的是,4月1日——不是玩笑——巴林将接任联合国安理会轮值主席国。

Want to leave on sort of other note because we mentioned both Ukraine and United Nations and in the week coming up curiously on April 1, not a joke, Bahrain takes over the rotating presidency of the UN Security Council.

Speaker 1

因此,在有关中东事务和议程设置的讨论中,巴林将从美国手中接过这一席位。

So in these talks about sort of things happening in The Middle East and agenda setting on certain topics, Bahrain takes this seat from The United States.

Speaker 1

很有趣的是,看看在这些讨论中,我们实际上并未看到这种层级的互动是否会发生。

It will be interesting to see whether in these discussions, which we didn't see actually happening at this level.

Speaker 1

至少巴林能够稍微设定或引导关于当前局势的议程,并尝试提出一些解决方案。

Bahrain at least is able to maybe set or steer the agenda a little bit on what's going on and to try to come up to with with some solution.

Speaker 0

是的,我们的许多听众都知道,我们原计划一个月后在巴林举办会议,但现在由于各种显而易见的原因,会议已推迟到秋天。

Yeah and and many of our listeners will know we were supposed to be in Bahrain about a month from now with our conference, that is, now on hold till till autumn for various obvious reasons.

Speaker 0

马库斯·施戈尔、戈拉娜·格吉奇,还有在伦敦的艾米琳·尼尔森。

Marcus Schogle, Gorana Grgiuch, also Emmyn Nelson back in London.

Speaker 0

还有,向新德里的林迪·普里基特致意。

Also, to, Lyndee Prickitt in New Delhi.

Speaker 0

还有我们的因扎姆·拉希德、迪拜的安德鲁,以及伦敦的同事。

And our Inzam Rashid, and Andrew in Dubai and also in London.

Speaker 0

今天的制作团队有:德西蕾·本利、艾玛·纳尔逊、玛丽·艾拉·贝文,玛丽·艾拉,还有德西蕾负责音效。

Our producers today, Desiree Benley, Emma Nelson, Mary Ella Bevin, Mary Ella, and also Desiree looking after the sound.

Speaker 0

我是泰勒·布鲁莱。

I'm Tyler Brulay.

Speaker 0

我下周会回来,但那时我会在里斯本。

I'm back next week, but I'll be in Lisbon.

Speaker 0

艾玛会在伦敦主持大局。

Emma's gonna be holding the fort in London.

Speaker 0

再见。

Goodbye.

关于 Bayt 播客

Bayt 提供中文+原文双语音频和字幕,帮助你打破语言障碍,轻松听懂全球优质播客。

继续浏览更多播客