本周焦点与泰国湾视角

我的意思是，奥地利人也有一套非常不错的老年人锻炼计划。

I mean, the Austrians also do quite a good elderly exercise routine.

是的，没错。

Oh, yes.

所以所有65岁以上的人都会

So everybody over 65 is having

完成他们的锻炼。

their need done.

亚历克斯也需要老年人锻炼。

Alex needs an elderly exercise.

完全不是。

Not at all.

你确实需要。

You do

慢点来。

steady on.

纯粹作为观赏性运动，看着一位70岁的人卷着裤腿，有条不紊地抬起左膝，你知道的。

Purely as a spectator sport, watching someone 70 lifting their left knee methodically, you know, with with trousers rolled up.

非常好。

Very good.

这真的很、很、很运动感，绝对如此。

It's very, very, know, Getting down sporty Absolutely

不，其实静下心来想，你能从中学到不少东西，你肯定能。

getting No, down to think actually you can learn quite a lot from well, you certainly could.

我的意思是，我认为全球化和大量流媒体电视节目的标准化带来了一些问题，这确实有点遗憾，因为我记得年轻时，去泰国打开泰国MTV，发现泰国说唱音乐的那种极致兴奋——那是我之前根本不知道的，我被它深深打动了。

I mean, the problem is I think there has been a level of globalisation and kind of normalisation of a lot of streamed television, which is a bit sad really, because I do remember when I was younger, the absolute thrill of, in fact, going to Thailand, turning on Thai MTV and discovering Thai rap music, I think I had not previously known about, and being absolutely thrilled by it.

我的意思是，真的非常特别，而且相当不同。

Mean, know, really sort of extraordinary and quite, you know, just very different.

我不禁想知道，为什么这种文化没有传播到其他地方。

And I wonder why it hasn't travelled to the rest of shores.

为什么泰国说唱没有像——哦，我敢说，总是拿K-pop作为参照——那样被出口出去呢？

Why hasn't it not why has Thai rap not been exported in the same way that, oh dare I say, always go to K pop for that that of starting point.

嗯，我觉得

Well I

应该已经传开了

think it should

确实应该如此。

have been.

世界错失了这份精彩。

The world's missed out.

但我觉得现在由于各地播放的频道都差不多，令人遗憾的是，你所观看的内容同质化更严重了。

But I think now there has been this real sort of, because you get the same sort of channels everywhere, there is sadly a bit more homogenisation of what you're watching.

如今，当然我们还有互联网，所以实际上你可以轻松接触到。

These days, and also of course we have the internet, so you can actually clue into.

我相信现在一定有人正在疯狂地寻找《Peach Lover》的剧集，他们几乎可以从任何地方观看。

I'm sure there are people now, listeners frantically finding episodes of Peach Lover, for instance, that they can probably watch from anywhere.

我认为这件事我们将来几周在《Monocle on Sunday》节目中还得再深入聊聊。

This is something that I think we're going to have to revisit for Monocle on Sunday in the coming weeks.

我们需要做报道和评论。

We're going to have to have reports and reviews.

看。

Look.

让我们转向一些严肃的新闻。

Let's move to some serious news.

现在伦敦时间是九点二十三分，我身边坐着亚历克斯·冯·坦兹曼和大卫·施莱辛格，一起来参与《Monocle on Sunday》节目。

It's it's twenty three minutes past nine here in London, and I'm joined in the studio by Alex von Tunzelmann and David Schlesinger for for Monocle on Sunday.

我认为，亚历克斯，你想提一下美国前总统对前FBI局长罗伯特·穆勒去世的惊人反应。穆勒先生专业声望极高，是出了名的强硬人物，而唐纳德·特朗普在得知他81岁去世时，第一句话居然是：‘我很高兴他走了。’

I think, Alex, you wanted to bring up this rather shocking reaction that The US President has had to the death of the former head of the FBI, Robert Mueller, a man of incredible professional standing, one of the toughest, toughest out there, and the first thing that Donald Trump says about his death at 81 is I'm glad he's gone.

是的，特朗普在他的个人社交媒体平台Truth Social上发帖写道：‘罗伯特·穆勒刚刚去世。’

Yes, Trump posted on his own social media platform, which is Truth Social, and the post said Robert Mueller just died.

好。

Good.

我很高兴他死了。

I'm glad he's dead.

他再也不能伤害无辜的人了。

He can no longer hurt innocent people.

当然，特朗普和这位男士之间存在个人恩怨。

Now of course, know, Trump had a personal rivalry with this man.

你知道，某种程度上，问题在于：我们真的感到震惊吗？

And you know, in some ways, of course, the thing would be, well, are we shocked?

你知道，特朗普总是说些可怕的话。

You know, Trump always says dreadful things.

我认为这次他的言论实际上比我们以前听到的还要极端。

I do think this is actually a bit more extreme than what we've heard from him previously.

当好莱坞导演罗布·雷纳和他的妻子被谋杀时，特朗普曾说他是死于‘反特朗普妄想症’，当时也引起了很大轰动。

We also there was a great deal of shock when the Hollywood director Rob Reiner was murdered, along with his wife, that Trump sort of said, Oh, he was killed by Trump derangement syndrome.

当时对此事有很多争议。

And there was a fuss about this.

但我认为，如此公开地庆祝一个人的死亡，实在是非同寻常。

But I think openly celebrating a death in this way is quite extraordinary.

尤其是，这距离右翼美国评论员查理·柯克遇刺后不久，当时人们因庆祝他的死亡而引发巨大风波，导致30人丢了工作，共和党人反应极为激烈，而如今绝大多数人对特朗普做着同样甚至更过分的事却完全沉默。

Especially of course, this is coming not that long after the assassination of the right wing US pundit, Charlie Kirk, when there was such a fuss over people being seen to celebrate that death, that actually 30 people lost their jobs, there was really quite an extreme reaction from Republicans, most of whom are now completely silent about Trump doing what is, by any standard, the same thing or worse.

再看《世界报》如何解读唐纳德·特朗普的言论，他们认为他是在清算旧账。

And just looking at Le Monde, the way that it is framing what Donald Trump's comments are is that he's settling scores.

我的意思是，对死者清算旧账，正如亚历克斯所说，这已经超越了底线，不是吗？

I mean, to settle scores with the dead is really something quite as as Alex says, it's it's that one step beyond, isn't it?

我认为，如果我们所有人都能活到足够长的时间来书写这个时代的史书，那么一个主要主题将是：特朗普代表了所有规范的终结。

Well, I I think if we actually all survive long enough to write histories of this era, I think one main theme is that Trump represents the end of all norms.

所有维系我们社会团结、维系我们基本人性的规范，都已不复存在。

All the norms that kept us together as a society, that kept us together as a basic humanity, they're all gone.

而穆勒的这番言论，不过是这一连串粗鄙行为中的又一例，如同将保龄球狠狠砸向文明、礼貌、正派人类社会的球瓶。

And this Mueller comment is just one more coarseness in a line of absolutely sending a bowling ball against the pins of normal, polite, decent human society.

你写过，你是研究这类事情的历史学家，亚历克斯。

And you write you're a historian who writes about his you know, he writes about this kind of stuff, Alex.

我们似乎已经能开始构思章节了，不是吗？

The idea that we can already one feels that one can already start to form the chapters, don't we?

而且，这些事情的发展速度比我们跟上它们的步伐还要快。

Know, and they are building up faster than we can really keep in touch with them.

我的意思是，未来的历史学家在梳理这些材料时，会不会面临巨大挑战？

I mean, do think it'll be a challenge to historians in the future to sort of weed through this stuff.

现在社交媒体如此发达，信息量如此庞大，你如何在一本著作中聚焦于特朗普的哪些言行作为重点——或者更准确地说，作为最糟糕的案例呢？

There's so much of it now with social media and everything that like how do you focus on, you know, in say one book, on which bits of Trump's offence to pick out as the highlights, or perhaps we should say lowlights of all of this.

但我的确认为，戴夫说得对，打破规范确实是其中的一部分，某种程度上，这也是特朗普主义或MAGA运动的核心之一。

But I mean, I do think, I mean, Dave is absolutely right that the sort of smashing of norms is part of it really, and that's kind of part of the Trumpian or MAGA project, if you like, some ways.

但显然，这件事确实深深震惊了很多人，我想这是完全可以理解的。

But you know, it does seem that this has really, really shocked a lot of people, I think understandably.

请你再详细解释一下，未来的人们将如何看待这个时代，因为现在我们所说的‘规范崩塌’，马克·卡尼称之为‘断裂’，整个体系都瓦解了。

Just explain to us a little bit more about how the future will actually look back on this era, because what you have now is like we say the smashing of norms, Mark Carney has called the rupture, the whole thing.

但在这片废墟之上，必然会有新的东西取而代之。

But from that devastation, things must replace it.

你不可能只制造一个深渊，然后任由它空置在那里。

You can't just create an abyss and leave it like that.

那么，你认为在十年、二十年，甚至三十年后，这个世界会是什么样子？也许在我们停止在广播中讨论这些话题很久之后。

So where do you think this world and we were looking ten, twenty, even thirty years down the line here, possibly long before long after we've stopped making our discussions on the radio head.

但关键是，在毁灭之后，你究竟在哪里找到重建的希望？

But the idea of where you actually find a recreation after devastation.

我的意思是，以你研究历史的经验来看，慰藉从何而来？

I mean, in your experience of studying history, where where do does the comfort come from?

希望又从何而来？

Where does the hope come from?

天啊，抱歉，这个问题可真不小，对吧？

Oh dear, I'm sorry, that's a rather big question, isn't it?

对不起。

Sorry.

要找到的答案实在太多了。

Rather a lot to find.

如果你愿意，我们可以回到推婴儿车的狗时代。

We can go back to dog prams if you like.

是的，我的意思是，这样更容易。

Yeah, mean, it's easier.

不，我认为，作为一名历史学家，你自然会意识到世界事件是有周期性的，即使最可怕的事情发生过——比如二十世纪多次发生的那样——但最终总会重建，事情会以不同的形式重新出现，但它们确实会重现。

No, I think, of course, I mean, are always like, and something that being a historian gives you is a sense that there are cycles to world events, and that even when the most appalling things happen, certainly as they did in the twentieth century a number of times, that actually there is rebuilding, and things do come back afterwards in a different form of course, but they do.

我确实持一种相对乐观的看法，即在当前这段时期之后，一定会有一个新的时期，我希望如此，除非他们真的把世界炸毁了，那样的话，一切都会改变并重新开始。

And I certainly would take that somewhat optimistic view that yes, there will be a time after this time, I hope, unless they really manage to blow up the world, at which point, you know, things will change and will rebuild.

但目前很难说事情会如何发展，因为我们不知道未来会以何种形式呈现，而且结果可能会非常出人意料。

But it's very hard at the moment, I think, to say how this will go because we don't know what form that will take, and it can be very surprising.

从中国的角度来看，因为你是中国专家，大卫，这种断裂发生时，中国现在会怎么做？

And from China's point of view, because you're a China expert, David, this idea of the rupture taking place, what does China do now?

它是会进一步强化自身，还是选择成为那个避风港，提供稳定与安全？我们最近几天和几周看到，中国正把自己定位为一个稳定的替代选择。

Does it double down?

是的，正是如此。

Or or does it does it sort of offer itself up as that harbor, that stability and that security, which we've seen in the last couple of days and weeks that China is positioning itself very much as the stable alternative?

绝对如此。

Absolutely.

我认为这非常有趣，尤其是对于亚洲而言，中国如今已成为一个可靠的全球大国。

And I think that's fascinating that for Asia in particular, China is now the world power that is dependable.

中国是一个你可以预测其反应的全球大国。

China is the world power that you can calculate what its responses will be.

中国不会给你带来意外。

China is not going to give you surprises.

中国不会给你造成如此剧烈的断裂。

China is not going to give you such such a rupture.

因此，在软实力方面，中国正处于一个非常非常好的位置。

So I think it's terms of soft power, it's a very, very good place to be.

中国有这个能力做到这一点吗？

And is China in a position to do that?

显然，中国已经——或者更准确地说，其领导人习近平——通过将自己牢牢置于权力中心、不可动摇，构建了这种稳定结构。

Obviously, it's it's it's created or rather its leader Xi Jinping has created that that sort of structure of stability by basically placing himself in situ and cannot be moved.

但在表层之下，长期以来，房地产市场和经济方面一直存在诸多不确定性。

But underneath, there has been for so long so much uncertainty in terms of the property market, in terms of in terms of the economy.

看吧。

Look.

我认为，中国是我们这个时代伟大的罗夏墨迹测验。

I think I think China is the great Worschach test of our time.

当你看中国时，你的反应方式告诉我你的政治立场和你所接触的媒体。

When you look at China, you the way you respond tells me what your politics are, what your media is.

如果你看中国，说中国正处于危机中，那说明你经常阅读西方媒体。

If you look at China and say, oh, China is in crisis, that tells me you read a lot of Western media.

如果你看中国，说中国正

If you look at the Chinese, say, oh, China is

在

in

向更好的地方、更稳定的未来转型，那说明你更多地阅读中国媒体。

transition to a better place, a more stable future, that tells me that you're more reading Chinese media.

我不知道它最终会怎样，但我可以告诉你，中国是我们这个时代伟大的罗夏墨迹测验。

I don't know what it will be, but I will tell you that China is the great warshot test of our time.

没错。

Exactly.

好的。

Okay.

非常感谢你的分享。

Thank you very much indeed for that.

您正在收听《Monocle》周日节目。

You're listening to Monocle on Sunday.

稍后我们会回来，汉娜·卢辛达·史密斯将为我们带来来自土耳其的新闻综述。

We'll be back in a moment as Hannah Lucinda Smith will come in and bring us our news roundup from Turkey.

请继续收听。

Stay with us.

就仿佛有魔法一般，汉娜·卢辛达·史密斯来到了演播室。

And as if by magic, Hannah Lucinda Smith joins us in the studio.

早上好，汉娜。

Good morning, Hannah.

早上好。

Good morning.

通常情况下，我们从土耳其收到了很多更新，但这一切正在改变。

Now normally, we've had so many check ins from Turkey, but this is all changing.

为什么会这样？

Why is that?

这是因为我已经离开了土耳其，搬回了伦敦，所以现在我和你一起在演播室里。

It's changing because I've left Turkey, and I've moved back to London, which is why I'm in the studio with you.

太好了。

Excellent.

是什么让你从伊斯坦布尔回来的？

Now, what's brought you back from from Istanbul?

我觉得是时候了，艾玛。

I felt it was time, Emma.

我在那里待了十三年。

It was thirteen years that I was there.

我经历了很多。

I've covered a lot.

我看到了很多。

I've seen a lot.

我认为，作为记者，总有一个时候你需要用全新的眼光去看待新事物，把报道任务交给新人来接手。

And I think there comes a point when you're a correspondent where you have to kind of see fresh things with fresh eyes and leave new people to come in and and do your beat.

每次我们和你交谈时，都伴随着不确定性。

Every time we've spoken to you, there's been uncertainty.

都伴随着紧张气氛。

There's been tension.

虽然在摩纳哥电台，我们总是喜欢那些短暂而愉快的愚蠢和耳背时刻，但土耳其发生的事情始终笼罩着一种更黑暗的底色。

There has been there are a couple of glorious moments of silliness and deafness, which we always like at Monaco Radio, but there is always that a sort of a a darker undercurrent to what is happening in Turkey.

你现在所在的地方，这种氛围有多明显？

How much is that tangible where where you are now?

这种氛围非常明显。

It's really tangible.

而且，你知道，当你作为一名长期驻扎在某地的记者时，要将自己的情感与那里实际发生的事情区分开来，总是非常非常困难的。

And, you know, it's always really, really difficult to sort of especially when you're a correspondent who's been somewhere for a long time, to separate your own feelings about a place from what's actually happening there.

而且，你知道，我确实感觉到气氛变得越来越沉重了。

And, you know, I've certainly been feeling that the mood has been getting heavier.

显然，你知道，这个地区现在状况不佳。

Clearly, you know, the region is not in a good place.

土耳其本身也状况不佳。

Turkey itself is not in a good place.

但这不仅仅是我个人的感受。

But it's not just something that I feel.

你知道，有一群像我一样在那里待了很长时间的记者，有趣的是，他们都在计划离开。

You know, there are a group of correspondents who like me have been there for a really long time, And what's really interesting is all of them are kind of making plans to move on.

而且，你知道，任何了解伊斯坦布尔的人都知道，那是一座了不起的城市。

And, you know, anyone who knows Istanbul knows that it is an amazing city.

这是一座你很快就会爱上城市。

It's a city that you can fall in love with very quickly.

不幸的是，它正越来越变成一座让人渐渐失去喜爱的城市。

Unfortunately, it's, you know, increasingly turning into a city that you can sort of fall out of love with a bit as well.

它目前正经历一段艰难的时期。

It's not going through a great time at the moment.

事实上，我们刚刚纪念了埃克雷姆·伊马莫格卢被捕和监禁一周年的日子，他可是曾勇敢对抗埃尔多安总统的人，是的。

And indeed, we've just marked the anniversary, the first anniversary of the arrest and detention of Ekrem Imamoglu, the man who really put up a good fight against president Erdogan Yeah.

他也是莫纳卡尔的挚友。

And and is and is a dear friend of Monarchal.

关键在于，这么快就过去了这么长时间——当然，对他来说绝不会快——伊斯坦布尔市长就这样从地球上消失了，被关进了监狱。

And the fact remains that to have that time pass so quickly, I mean, clearly, it will not be quick for him, but that sense of the mayor of Istanbul just disappears off the face of the earth and is and is slung in jail.

这对这座城市产生了什么影响？

What effect did that have on the city?

那确实是一个非常令人沮丧的时刻，我想。

That that was a really, you know, depressing and depressive moment, I think.

你知道，伊马莫格卢是2019年上任的。

You know, Imam Olu came in in 2019.

他在2019年意外地赢得了胜利，那真是一个充满希望的时刻。

He sort of won a shock victory in 2019, and it was really this moment of hope.

从象征意义上讲，显然他也成为了人们寄予厚望、可能挑战埃尔多安总统职位的人物。

In terms of symbolism, and obviously, he also became the figure that everyone was hoping might actually challenge Erdogan for the presidency as well.

但除此之外，他在城市方面所做的工作，尤其是在艺术、文化和公共空间领域，确实取得了令人惊叹的成就。

But beyond that, the things that he did for the city, particularly in terms of, you know, arts, culture, public spaces, really did some amazing things.

这让人感觉伊斯坦布尔并非孤例。

And it kind of felt like Istanbul and Istanbul is not alone in this.

在那些正滑向威权主义的国家里，城市——尤其是首都——在反对派市长的领导下坚持抗争，这已成为一种趋势。

There's a kind of trend in these countries that are sliding towards autocracy of cities, particularly capital cities, holding out under opposition mayors.

一段时间以来，伊斯坦布尔仿佛成了这样的堡垒。

And it felt like Istanbul was kind of this bastion for a while.

当伊玛目奥卢被捕时，这本身就已经是极其糟糕的事情。

And when Imam Ali was arrested, clearly that was, you know, in itself terrible.

真正让我感到沮丧的是，针对这一事件的抗议竟如此迅速地被镇压了。

The thing that really depressed me was how quickly the protests against that were crushed.

我刚到伊斯坦布尔时是2013年初，距离盖齐抗议活动爆发大约还有两个月。

When I first arrived in Istanbul, was early twenty thirteen, it was about two months before the Gezi protest kicked off.

你知道，那些抗议持续了整整好几个月。

And, you know, those went on for absolutely months.

人们都参与进来了。

People got involved.

人们真的准备好走上街头，表达自己的想法。

You know, people were really ready to go out and say what they thought, take to the streets.

现在，由于压迫程度如此之高，那些为抗议伊玛目·阿洛哈被捕而走上街头的人，几乎立刻就被逮捕了。

Now, because the level of oppression is so great, and the people who did come out to protest against Imam Aloha's arrest, pretty much arrested straight away.

你知道，土耳其警方使用了人脸识别技术。

You know, the Turkish police use facial recognition.

他们能迅速识别出抗议活动中的人是谁。

They very quickly figure out who's in these protests.

第二天一早就会有突袭抓捕。

There are dawn raids the next day.

当然，这会带来什么后果呢？

And, of course, what does that do?

这彻底扼杀了任何形式的抗议。

That that crushes any kind of protest.

我也觉得这相当令人沮丧。

So I find that quite depressing as well.

这不仅仅是正在发生的事情本身。

It's not merely the fact of what's happening.

更重要的是，人们也害怕走上街头抗议这件事。

It's that, you know, people are so scared to go out and protest against it as well.

我们来听听大卫的说法，因为你曾是汤森路透在中国的董事长，对吧？

Let's bring you in, David, because as a you're the former chairman of Thomson Reuters in China, weren't you?

所以你们两人离开了一个日益扼杀言论自由和声音的国家。

And so you two have left a country which increasingly suffocates free speech and voices.

离开时是什么感觉？

What was it like to leave?

我不确定自己真的完全离开了。

I'm not sure I ever totally left.

我每年都还会回去三四次。

I I I've continued to go back three, four times a year.

所以我一直保持着这种联系。

So I've kept kept that hold.

我想我要说的是，令人沮丧的是，全世界似乎正在向一个压迫性的中国靠拢，而不是我们曾经希望的那样，中国会走向自由民主的趋势。

I suppose what I'd say is that the depressing thing is that the rest of the world seems to be catching up to an oppressive China rather than what we all had hoped was that China would follow a liberal democratic trend.

世界目前并不乐观，而中国至少展现了一种有所节制的专制面貌。

The world is not in a good place, and China has at least shown a face of autocracy that is modulated.

我们之前在节目开始前谈到过关于高强度工作文化以及对‘996’工作制的抗议，也就是每周工作六天、每天从早上九点到晚上九点。

When we were talking about I think before the program began about the whole idea of the hard work culture and the protests against the nine nine six culture where people work from nine to nine six days a week.

事实上，现在发生的是，民间的不满情绪反映到了政府层面，促使政府试图做出改变。

In fact, what's happening is that you have a popular unrest that then got reflected back into the government, which is trying to make changes.

所以这是一种具有回应性的专制体制。

So it's a it's a responsive autocracy.

而这至少是目前中国的一张王牌——它不是一个僵化的专制体制。

And that at least is China's magic card at the moment, that it is not a rigid autocracy.

这是一种懂得在必要时做出回应的专制体制。

It's an autocracy that knows how to respond when it has to.

而亚历克斯，你在这里能够达成的平衡，正是我们目前大量看到的：就在刚才，我们还在谈论中国作为一个港湾、一个稳定的场所，你可以在那里做生意、进行交易，获得一种安心和延续感。

And the balance, Alex, that you can strike here is what I think we're all seeing an awful lot at the moment is is, you know, a moment ago, we were talking about China as a as a sort of a a harbor, a a stable place where you can do business, you can do transactions, there is a reassurance and a continuation.

以及世界能够对复杂而困难的国家采取分化策略的能力。

And that ability for the world to split its approach to complicated, difficult countries.

它能够愉快地做生意，同时也很清楚地看到，比如土耳其，埃尔多安总统正努力成为世界和平的调停者，推动与世界的贸易，但与此同时，汉娜也提到了伊斯坦布尔公民所遭受的压迫。

The fact that it can happily do business and happily see well, let's look at Turkey, know, President Erdogan being the great broker of trying to bring peace to the world, trying to do trade with the world, but at the same time, Hannah talking there about the the the oppression of the citizens in Istanbul.

是的，如果从历史角度看，比如那些庞大的帝国——我不是说它们是正面意义上的伟大，而是指规模庞大——它们往往非常压迫，但如果你看看大英帝国的成功，其成功很大程度上基于法治和可执行的交易，这一点非常明确。

Yes, and I suppose again if you look historically, if you look at, for instance, the great empires, by which I don't mean positively great, I mean large, they often were very oppressive, but if you look at the success of something like the British Empire, the success was largely based on, yes, you have the rule of law and you can carry out transactions, and that's all very clear.

实际上，当时并没有太多意识形态成分，更多时候只是让我们把生意做起来，尤其是在像印度这样的地方。

And actually, there was very, very little really by way of an ideology in that, so much as let's get some business done a lot of the time, certainly if you look at somewhere like India.

因为埃尔多安的一切都是基于意识形态，不是吗？

Because Erdogan based everything on ideology, didn't he?

他刚上台的时候思想十分开放、处事平和、理念非常自由，可后来却完全利用一套意识形态，按照自己的模子塑造了这个国家。

He started off as very open minded, very relaxed, very liberal, and yet has just sort of used an ideology to create a country in his own mould.

没错。

Absolutely.

其实，埃尔多安的个人信念我们从来都没有质疑过。

I mean, we've never been in any doubt about Erdogan's personal beliefs.

他是一名伊斯兰主义者。

He is an Islamist.

他是一名保守派穆斯林，希望土耳其社会整体变得更加保守。

He's a conservative Muslim who wants to see Turkey become more conservative.

不过你说得非常对。

But you're quite right.

他刚上台的时候，曾非常务实地将自己塑造成一个推动自由化的领导人。

When he first got into power, he very pragmatically kind of presented himself as a liberalizer.

你知道的，他当时想要推动土耳其加入欧盟。

You know, he wanted to take Turkey into the EU.

他想削弱军队的权力，这一点几乎没有土耳其人会反对。

He wanted to quell the power of the military, which is something that there aren't many Turks who would argue against that.

他希望给予库尔德人更多的权利。

He wanted, you know, more rights for the Kurds.

但我认为，这里的关键词是务实。

But I think the key word here is pragmatism.

他是一个懂得在恰当时机运用合适意识形态的领导人。

He's a leader who knows the right time to use the right kind of ideology.

我认为，那种自由主义的时代真正结束是在阿拉伯之春初期，也就是2010年底到2011年初，当时该地区出现了穆斯林的不满情绪，他正是借助了这股浪潮。

And we really saw that kind of liberal era end, I would say, around the start of the Arab Spring, so late twenty ten, early twenty eleven, when you got this rise of kind of Muslim grievance in the region that he really rode on the back on.

他开始把自己塑造成逊尼派穆斯林的保护者、巴勒斯坦人的支持者、埃及新政权的坚定支持者，以及叙利亚反对派某些派别的支持者，并充分利用了这一点。

He started presenting himself as the protector of Sunni Muslims, of the Palestinians, great supporter of the new regime in Egypt, supporter of certain parts of the Syrian opposition, and and used that.

与此同时，当然，他也进一步扩大了对土耳其国家各个层面的控制。

And at the same time, you know, really you know, and at the same time, of course, had also expanded his power over facets of the Turkish state as well.

因此，当他刚上台时，他在国家权力方面处于相当弱势的地位。

So when he first came into power, he was in quite a weak position state wise.

国家仍然主要由执政数十年的世俗主义者掌控。

The state was still pretty much controlled by the secularists who'd run Turkey for decades.

一旦他把自己的人安插进这些职位，我们就看到他真正开始转变。

Once he'd managed to get his people into those places, we saw him really start to turn.

他绝对是机会主义的绝佳典范。

He is an absolute brilliant example of opportunism.

确实如此。

Absolutely.

你可以批评他的意识形态和手段。

And you know, you can criticize his ideology, his methods.

但你不能否认他的政治才能。

What you can't criticize is political skill.

还有他的受欢迎程度。

And his popularity as well.

他的受欢迎程度，我的意思是，确实下降了。

His popularity I mean, his popularity has definitely fallen.

但如果你看看，即使是2023年最近的选举，他仍然有一批核心支持者，我认为大约有30%是铁杆粉丝。

But if you look, I mean, even at the latest elections in 2023, he has this core of support, which I would say is probably around 30% who are hardcore.

无论他做什么，他都能依靠这些人。

Whatever he does, he can rely on them.

他始终拥有这30%的领先优势。

He's always got that 30% head start.

因此，他真正要做的，只是稍微努力一下，说服另外20%的人就够了。

So all he really has to do to beat the opposition is just do enough to persuade another 20%.

当然，一旦你掌控了像选举法院这类机构，如果你稍微落后一点，就能做点手脚来操纵结果。

And then, of course, once you have control of things like the electoral courts and things like that, if you're if you're just a little bit out, you can do enough to fiddle it.

对吧？

Right?

还有国际上的硬实力和软实力，他像中国一样，非常努力地将本国定位为谈判的中心，任何国家都可以来这里对话、尝试解决问题。

International And hard and soft power as well, the way that he has tried very hard, as as China has actually, to to position the country as the place where you negotiate, the place where you where anybody can come and talk and try and solve problems.

这确实非常非凡，因为如果我们用伊索寓言的方式来比喻，那就会说：他谁都不忠。

It's really quite extraordinary because, you know, were we to sort of go for the Aesop fable approach, then there would be like, he's not loyal to anybody.

但这种向所有人敞开大门的能力确实极其强大。

But that ability actually to open the door to everybody is phenomenally powerful.

是的。

Yeah.

我认为你可以从两个角度来看待这个问题。

And I think you can look at it in two ways.

你可以这么说，这实际上对土耳其这样的中等强国来说是一项非常精明的政策，它渴望成为更大的力量，把自己定位为几乎不结盟的角色，尽管显然它已经结盟了。

You know, you could say, actually, this is a very smart policy for a country like Turkey, a kind of a middle power that has aspirations to be a bigger power positioning themselves as almost kind of non aligned, even though they are aligned clearly.

你知道，它还是北约成员。

You know, they're in NATO.

它仍然是欧盟的候选国，但同时也采取了这种立场，与中国的俄罗斯保持关系。

They are still officially a EU candidate country, but also taking this position where he's kept relations with China, with Russia.

你可以说，这非常精明。

You could say, okay, that's very smart.

你也可以说这非常 cynical。

You could also say it's very cynical.

我的意思是，如果我们回溯十年，每当埃尔多安打压记者、在政变未遂后大规模镇压反对派时，你都会看到安格拉·默克尔等人公开批评他，但英国从不发声。

I mean, if we go back ten years, whenever Erdogan did things locking up journalists, you know, launching a huge crackdown on his opponents after the coup attempt, you would get open criticism from people like Angela Merkel, not from Britain.

英国一直保持沉默。

Britain's always sort of kept quiet.

但那时你还会听到对他公开的谴责。

But you would get those, you know, open condemnations of him.

现在呢？

Now.

一字不提。

Not a word.

所有这些强人政府的问题在于，他们离开政坛之后会发生什么。

Well, the problem with all these strong men governments is what happens after they leave the scene.

你对后埃尔多安时代可能发生的状况有什么看法？

What what are your views of what might happen in a post Erdogan era?

是的。

Yeah.

我认为这是一个非常重要的问题，因为到目前为止，土耳其的情况是，他几乎就像一位太阳王。

I I think that's a really important question because what's happened in Turkey at this stage is he's almost like a sun king.

对吧？

Right?

特别是自2018年公投以来，他将土耳其的体制从议会民主制转变为这种总统制。

Particularly since 2018 when there was a referendum, he shifted Turkey's system from parliamentary democracy to this executive presidency.

现在，所有事情都来自他和他的宫殿。

And basically, everything now comes from him and his palace.

他指挥部长们。

He directs ministers.

他指挥央行的一切。

He directs everything to central bank.

所以，国家已经空心化了。

So, the state is hollow.

我认为土耳其的每个人都明白，一旦他离开，国家因空心化而崩溃是必然的。

And I think everyone in Turkey knows that should he go, with a hollow state, it's gonna collapse.

我认为这实际上是让人们继续投票支持他的原因之一。

And I think that is actually part of the thing that keeps people voting for him in a way.

亚历克斯，太阳王离开后会发生什么？

Alex, what happens after Sun Kings depart?

不太妙，艾玛，一般来说都是这样。

It's not good, Emma, as a general rule.

是的，我的意思是，如果没有明显的继任者，通常会陷入高度混乱，而他们通常也没有，因为那些人会挑战太阳王。

Yeah, I mean, often quite a high level of chaos if you don't have obvious successors, which usually they don't, because those people challenge Sun Kings.

所以他们通常不会允许任何明显可能成为继任者的人崛起至那个层级。

So they usually don't allow anyone who's a very obvious successor to rise up to that kind of level.

通常会出现一场针对你所描述的那种空心化国家的权力斗争。

What there tends to be is a power struggle for the kind of hollow state that you exactly describe.

而当然，这通常会导致混乱。

And of course that usually leads to chaos.

有时会有人出现并延续这一模式，但他们通常缺乏前一政权的权威。

Sometimes somebody emerges who carries it on, but usually they don't have the authority of the previous regime.

你提到的关于太阳王以及埃尔多安能做什么的观点很有趣。

It's an interesting point that you raised in terms of the Sun King and what Erdogan can do.

因为就像你最近在叙利亚待了相当长的时间，对吧？

Because just like, I mean, you've spent quite a lot of time in Syria recently, haven't you?

最近发生的一件事是，叙利亚领空——曾经由于内战和海湾地区局势而成为绝对禁飞区——现在已变成安全通道。

And one of the things that's happened recently is that Syrian airspace, once the absolute no go area because of the civil war, because of what's happening in The Gulf, has now become a safe passage.

这非常不寻常，我认为这实际上象征着叙利亚更广泛的地位。

It's extraordinary, and I think this is symbolic actually of Syria's position more broadly.

自从伊朗战争爆发以来，我一直与叙利亚的朋友和联系人交谈，问他们对此有何感受。

You know, I've been talking to Syrian friends and contacts ever since the war in Iran started, saying, how do you feel about it?

他们说，感觉周边爆发地区冲突有点奇怪。

And they say, it feels weird to have a regional conflict kicking off around us.

我们在外交上扮演着理性声音的角色。

We're the kind of the voice of reason in terms of diplomacy.

我的意思是，无论你如何看待艾哈迈德·阿尔沙拉的意识形态，他都是一个非常务实的国际行为体，且已与西方保持密切关系。

I mean, Ahmad Al Sharra, whatever you think of his ideology, again, a very pragmatic international player who's positioned himself close to the West.

显然，他们现在在新的叙利亚完全不想与伊朗有任何牵连。

Clearly, they want nothing to do with Iran now in the new Syria.

但他们也不想卷入这场战争。

But they're also, you know, not wanting to get involved in this war.

有报道称，特朗普实际上曾施压沙拉特，让他参与对黎巴嫩真主党的袭击。

There's reports that Trump was actually putting pressure on Sharat to get involved in the attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon.

他们的回应是：不，谢谢。

And they're like, no, thank you.

然而，尽管有些导弹在上空飞过，叙利亚领空如今却成了该地区为数不多的安全区域之一。

And yet, Syrian airspace, even though there are some sort of missiles flying over, now has become, you know, one of the few safe parts of region.

他们正在开辟新的走廊，从阿勒颇通往穆尔克，从阿勒颇通往利雅得，以缓解中东地区的交通拥堵。

And they're actually opening up new corridors going from Aleppo to the Merge, from Aleppo to Riyadh, in order to kind of free up a bit of this snarl in The Middle East.

亚历克斯刚才谈到的混乱程度。

How much Alex was talking a moment ago about chaos.

我的意思是，在巴沙尔·阿萨德被送往俄罗斯后，有报道称，由于叙利亚在宗教、教派等各个层面都极度分裂和对立。

I mean, after Bashar al Assad was hoiked off to to to Russia, There have been reports that, you know, because Syria is so sectarian, so split, so divided at absolutely every single level, religious, sectarian, the whole lot.

叙利亚是如何避免陷入混乱的？

How has Syria avoided chaos?

还是说它其实很混乱？

Or is it chaotic?

我认为有几个因素在起作用。

I think there are a couple of factors going on.

首先，叙利亚人已经对这场战争感到精疲力尽。

I mean, firstly, Syrians are exhausted by this war.

这是一场持续了一代人的战争。

It was a generation long war.

超过一半的国民流离失所，大片地区被彻底摧毁。

You had more than half of the country displaced, huge swathes of it completely destroyed.

人们厌倦了战争。

People are sick of war.

去年我为《Monocle》去大马士革采访时，这一点尤其让我印象深刻。

And that was, you know, one thing that really struck me when I went to Damascus for monocle last year.

和人们交谈时，他们说，我们只需要和平。

Talking to people, they're like, we just need peace.

我们需要与以色列和平相处。

We need peace with Israel.

我们需要与邻国和平共处。

We need peace with our neighbors.

我们需要彼此之间的和平。

We need peace with each other.

我认为另一个非常关键的点是，你知道，这或许是特朗普在幻想推翻伊朗政权时所忽视的。

I think the other really key point, and, you know, this is perhaps what Trump is overlooking when it comes to, you know, his dreams of regime change in Iran.

艾哈迈德·阿尔·沙拉来自叙利亚。

Ahmet al Sharra comes from Syria.

他属于叙利亚人民内部。

He is from within the Syrian people.

他不是外部强加的人物。

He is not an outside imposition.

他可能得到了外国的支持来实施他的行动。

He may have had foreign support to do what he did.

他可能并未获得对其意识形态的全面支持。

He may not have complete support for his ideology.

实际上，他确实没有。

He certainly doesn't, actually.

有许多叙利亚人并不希望看到伊斯兰主义掌权。

There are many Syrians who who don't want Islamist draw.

但他确实来自叙利亚人民内部。

But he does come from within the Syrian people.

他在该国北部的伊德利卜建立了一个准国家，治理得相当有效，且颇具技术官僚色彩。

He ran this quasi state in Idlib in the north of the country, did it quite effectively, was quite technocratic.

人们都知道他是谁。

People knew who he was.

伊朗没有类似的人物。

There's no similar figure in Iran.

拥有一个本地人物的重要性至关重要，对吧，亚历克斯？

And the importance of having a local figure is essential, isn't it, Alex?

是的，我认为有趣的是，就连特朗普似乎也不太支持罗莎·波拉维，她当然是权力的继承者，但我认为她在伊朗内部的支持率可能非常低，但她却是外国势力可能聚集起来支持的那种人物。

Yes, and I think it's interesting actually that even Trump doesn't seem to be that keen, for instance, on Rosa Polavey, who of course, certainly heir to the shardom, who I think has probably very little support in Iran itself, but is the sort of figure you could imagine a foreign entity coalescing around.

至于中国的情况，拥有一个本土培养的人才对于中国的延续来说绝对是至关重要的，对吧？

And in terms of what happens in China, that idea that to have a local homegrown talent is is absolutely essential for continuity in China, isn't it?

尽管习近平经常定期清除身边亲近的人，他经常进行大规模清洗，不是吗？

Despite the fact that Xi Jinping is very good at clearing out his close ones very on a on a regular basis, he he does a big purge quite a lot, doesn't he?

我确实担心习近平之后会发生什么。

I I do worry about what happens after Xi.

一旦他废除了党主席只能连任两届的惯例，我认为一切都不确定了。

Once he did away with the norm that you could only have two terms as as party chairman, I I think all bets are off.

我担心的是，最终会出现类似俄罗斯的情况——有人从安全部门或军队中崛起，我认为这对中国的世界都不是好事。

And my my fear would be that you would end up with a Russia like situation that someone would emerge from the secret service from the military, and I I don't think that would be a very good thing for China or the world.

伦敦的九月。

September here in London.

您正在收听《Monocle周日版》，我是艾玛·尼尔森。

You're listening to Monocle on Sunday with me, Emma Nelson.

今天在演播室里和我一起的是亚历克斯·冯·坦茨曼、大卫·施莱辛格和汉娜·露辛达·史密斯。

Joining me in the studio, Alex von Tunzelmann, David Schlesinger, and Hannah Lucinda Smith.

汉娜，你愿意陪我们继续完成接下来的节目吗？

Would you be happy to stay with us for the rest program, Hannah?

我非常愿意。

I absolutely would.

为什么不呢？

Why not?

因为我们接下来要聊的是——呃，你希望聊些什么呢？

Because we're going to talk well, what would you like to talk about next?

你最近注意到什么了？

What have you picked up?

大卫，你好像想聊几件事。

David, you wanted to talk about a couple of things.

这周有什么事情引起了你的注意？

What's what's what landed in your in your sort of on your radar this week?

除了努力工作和爱自己，我一直在想中国的AI，因为最近有新闻称，AI领域的利润出现了大幅下滑。

Well, besides the hard work and love you, dear self, I was thinking about China's AI because the news came out that in fact, a huge profit drop in in terms of AI.

但我一直在想，这真的有看起来那么糟糕吗？

But I was wondering whether that's really as bad as it looks.

我认为，当看到中国公司在短期内亏损时，确实不好，尤其是那些在海外上市的公司，但我认为这其实是China长期战略的一部分。

I think when you look at Chinese companies losing money in the short term, yes, it's bad when they're listed on foreign exchanges, but I think it's all part of China's long term strategy.

而且中国在AI领域采取的方式非常不同，我认为这很值得讨论。

And China is doing AI in a very different way, and I think that's that's worth worth talking about.

它具体是怎么做的？

What's it doing?

首先，尽管短期亏损，它却是以更低成本在推进。

Well, first of all, it's doing in a in a despite short term losses, it's doing it in a cheaper way.

DeepSeek的训练成本比任何西方模型都要低得多。

The the the training for deep seek was much, much cheaper than any of the western models.

但中国在AI的应用上也更加注重实际用途。

But it's also doing things in a way that is much more focused on practical applications.

我认为这将对经济产生真实的影响——你知道，我在西方喜欢玩大型语言模型，提出复杂的问题，虽然我不写代码，但别人可以写。

And I think that's gonna have real implications for for the economy that where you know, I I love playing around with large language models in in the West and and asking complex questions and people I don't do coding, but people can do coding.

但中国真正关注的是机器人技术，致力于用AI来自动化港口等更实际、接地气的应用。

But China is actually focused on robotics, focused on using it to automate ports more and very practical down to earth applications.

我认为从长远来看，这可能会非常强大。

And I think that could be really very powerful in the long term.

谁会想到你能用它来解决问题，而不是像我不知道的那样，只是随便说说。

Who thought that you could use it to solve problems as opposed to, I don't know, just sounding what you I don't know.

好吧，亚历克斯，你是在制造问题。

Well, Alex, what you create problems.

我觉得这件事特别有趣的地方在于，中国所使用的数据来源，与其他大型国际语言模型所采用的来源有所不同。

This idea of but what I find quite interesting about this is the sources that that that China uses and then other, you know, large international language models will be will be taking.

你们是从互联网的不同部分抓取数据，然后得出不同的答案吗？

Do you scrape out different bits of the Internet and and come up with different answers?

所以我们会有一个地区特定的中文AI语音，还是说所有东西都从各个地方抓取数据？

So we'll have a regionally specific Chinese AI voice, or will we have or does everything just scrape everything out from everywhere?

这取决于你构建的是哪个模型，不是吗？

Well, it depends which model you build, doesn't it?

我的意思是，大卫所描述的这种现象，可能反映了由国家主导开发的模型与私营公司开发的模型之间的差异。

I mean, think this is kind of interesting, what David's describing, is probably the difference in having a model that is developed effectively by the state versus private companies.

因为大型语言模型的一个特点是它们非常吸引眼球，它们总是能登上头条。

Because the thing about LLMs, of course, is that they're very attention grabby, You know, that they're they're a big headline.

而私营公司之所以开发这些模型，正是因为它们能制造轰动效应，你知道的，比如‘嘿’。

And that's, of course, what private companies have been developing those because, you know, it's the, hey.

你可以在一小时内写完一部小说，或者做其他类似的事情。

You can write a novel in an hour or, you know, you can do this.

但实际上，这些事情你根本无法真正做好。

Well, none of which you can actually do in to any good level, really.

但关键是，它们非常吸引注意力。

But, you know, it's the It it's very attention grabbing.

我们现在应该告诉观众，其实我们都是AI虚拟形象吗？

Should we tell the audience now that we're actually all just AI avatars?

当然应该。

Absolutely.

实际上没人坐在这里。

Nobody's actually sitting here.

我们全都还躺在床上。

We're all still in bed.

请别这么说。

Please don't.

但确实如此。

But yeah.

我的意思是，你知道，当一家私营公司试图抢占市场份额、吸引头条时，就会这么做，诸如此类的事情。

I mean, you know, that that sort of what you do when your private company is trying to grab market share, grab headlines, kind of, you know, all of this.

中国不需要用这种方式推广其AI，因为这个项目是来自国家的。

China doesn't need to do that with its AI because the program is coming from the state.

它可以专注于一些更实际的应用。

It can focus on perhaps more practical applications.

至于你在记者工作中，汉娜，我们所有人都察觉到了AI的渗透，我不知道，我们老远就能闻出来。

And how about when, know, in your work as a journalist, Hannah, we've all found the creeping in of AI, and I don't know, we can all smell it a mile off.

但AI在土耳其你的世界里影响有多大？

But how much has it been touching your world out in Turkey?

一点都没有，还是很多？

Not at all or lot?

一点都没有，艾玛。

Not at all, Emma.

但我认为这更多是关于

But I think that's more about

我本人而不是土耳其，因为我是个技术抗拒者。

me than about Turkey, because I'm a Luddite.

这真的很有趣。

It is really funny.

越来越多的人会问我：你用过人工智能吗？

Increasingly, find people will sort of ask me, like, do you ever use AI?

我说没有，因为我喜欢写作。

I'm like, no, because I enjoy writing.

我为什么要把我热爱的事情交给机器呢？

Why would I hand over something that I love doing to a machine?

但我们也都知道，让机器替你思考会带来哪些问题，比如让AI帮你做研究时可能出现的各种故障。

But also, you know, we all know the problems of getting machines to think for you, and the sort of glitches that can come out if you get AI to do your research for you.

我认为这并不是什么好的新闻实践。

I don't think it's particularly good journalistic practice.

不过，也许有人会对此提出不同看法。

But I don't know, maybe someone can challenge me on that.

亚历克斯？

Alex?

不，这是糟糕的新闻实践。

No, it's terrible journalistic practices.

这是一个好故事，我不会去碰它。

It's good story and I wouldn't touch it.

但我说，这周我在科技政策方面看到一个故事，非常着迷。

But I mean, I was fascinated by a story this week in tech policy.

我发现，实际上阅读这些技术类资料现在变得非常、非常有趣，因为这已经成为生活中如此重要的一部分。

And I do find that actually reading those kind of technical sources is now very, very interesting, because this is such a feature of life.

关于现在，当然，我们都认为当前这场战争可能是我们长期以来见过的最严重的AI虚假信息来源。

About how now, of course, we're all expecting that this current war, for instance, is probably the biggest source of AI false information that we've seen in a long time.

而且我认为每个人都对此有所预期。

And I think everybody's expecting that.

但它聚焦在一个我觉得非常有趣的另一个角度上。

But it focuses on a different angle that I found really interesting.

或许更令人担忧的是，一些看起来非常专业的分析也被用来虚假地诋毁真实的报道。

Something that's perhaps even more troubling is that very, very technical looking analyses are being used to falsely discredit authentic reports as well.

而且，这篇文章中其实有很多例子，我就不一一列举了，比如德黑兰轰炸后的真实照片。

And, you know, there were a lot of examples actually in this article, you know, won't go through all of them, but for instance, real photographs of the aftermath of bombing in Tehran.

AI生成了热力图，暗示这些照片根本不是真实的，也不是真正的照片。

AI was producing heat maps to suggest that these were actually not real at all and were not real photographs.

我认为这充分展示了我们引入这些技术时完全没有设置任何安全措施，而这种技术现在能够如此严重地歪曲真实信息，彻底侵蚀人们辨别真假的能力，这真的非常可怕。

And I think this is sort of really showing how actually, you know, we've introduced these things with absolutely no safeguards on them whatsoever, and the amount that that can now discredit real information and really erode the entire ability to tell between something real and fake is very, very frightening, I think.

大卫，我们来听听你的看法。

David, let's bring you in on this one.

在这种情况发生之前就建立安全机制的想法。

The idea of creating safeguards before this has happened.

亚历克斯提到的这些内容，远远超出了我们曾经认为AI可能有用的范围。

The stuff that Alex is talking about there is way beyond what we ever thought AI was ever going to be useful.

这是否是因为我们根本不知道AI最终会为我们做些什么？

Was it because we didn't actually know what AI was going to do for us anyway?

我认为我们完全没想到这一点，而这正是这件事如此有趣的地方：AI在某种程度上正在自我创造，它的发展已经远远超出了人类所能想象的范围。

Well, I think we had we had no idea of and this is what's so so interesting about it is that AI, in some ways, is creating itself, and that it's getting so far beyond what people, what human beings can even imagine.

至于在新闻业中使用或不使用AI的问题，我作为一个老人，可能是这里最年长的，我清楚地记得，在路透社，我们有一条非常严格的规定：绝对不能使用维基百科。

But to the point about using it or not using in journalism, I I just say as a as an old man, probably the oldest person here, I remember very clearly that at Reuters, we had a very for firm rule that you could never use Wikipedia.

维基百科现在成了我们的首选，因为它是同一个地方。

Wikipedia is now our go to because it's the same place.

它是个垃圾场。

It's a go poo.

所以，我的意思是，这些东西确实会演变。

So, I mean, so these things do evolve.

它们确实会变化。

They do change.

我认为在你意识到之前，人工智能就会成为新闻业乃至其他任何领域每个人工作流程中的基本组成部分。

And I think before you know it, AI will just be a fundamental part of everyone's workflow in journalism and anywhere else.

修正主义和假新闻这个概念，是这篇科技政策媒体文章的关键所在。

That idea of revisionism and fake news is something that's absolutely key to this article in tech policy press.

它指出，这些后果并非抽象的。

It says that the consequences are not abstract.

当观众无法区分真实证据与被篡改的证据时，否认暴行就会变得更容易。

When audiences can't distinguish authentic from manipulated evidence, atrocities become easier to deny.

这是个大问题，对吧，汉娜？

That is a big problem, isn't it, Hannah?

确实如此。

It really is.

你知道吗？

And you know what?

这并不是才因为AI才出现的问题。

This isn't something that's just come about with AI.

正如你提到的，我全程报道了叙利亚战争。

You know, as you mentioned, I covered Syria throughout the war.

作为记者，我们一直都在应对关于叙利亚境内发生之事的海量虚假信息。

We were constantly, as journalists, battling against a flood of misinformation about what was happening inside Syria.

我们知道，其中很多信息来自俄罗斯的水军和机器人农场。

Much of it, we know, produced from, you know, troll farms and bot farms in Russia.

而且，虚假信息甚至不是由科技才兴起的。

And, you know, misinformation, it didn't come about with tech even.

它一直都在。

It's always been there.

问题是，我们该如何应对？

The question is, what do we do about it?

我们如何恢复对传统媒体和新闻业的信任？

How do we restore trust in traditional media and in journalism?

但我认为，这同样也是一个媒介素养的问题。

But I think it's also a question of media literacy.

而且，我个人认为，这应该是学校里需要教授的内容。

And, you know, I personally believe this is something that needs to be taught in schools.

它应该成为课程的一部分。

It needs to be part of the curriculum.

芬兰人在这方面做得非常好。

The Finns are really good at this.

他们说，他们会从七岁或八岁起就教育孩子如何具备媒介素养，如何识别虚假新闻，如何寻找真实的故事。

They talk about they they educate young children from the age of about seven or eight on how to have media literacy, how to spot fake news, how to find a story.

而且这完全融入了课程之中。

And it and it is something which is absolutely stitched into into the curriculum.

几周前，我参加了一个探讨这个问题的活动，当时在场的主要是芬兰的教育工作者，有人提出：‘你们是怎么做的？’

And I was at a a an event that examined this a few weeks ago, and the the, you know, the major Finnish educators and people in there, and someone piped up said, well, how do you do this?

你们是单独开一节课吗？

Do you do a separate lesson?

他们回答：‘不。’

And they said, no.

在我们教授的每一门课中，我们都会讨论如何正确获取信息来源，如何培养媒介素养。

In every single lesson that we teach, we talk about how to get your sources right, how to examine media literacy.

‘媒介素养’这个词听起来很高大上，其实就是检查你的信息来源，确保它们不是胡说八道。

Media literacy is sort a highfalutin way of saying, check your sources, make sure they're not nonsense.

历史学家亚历克斯，你提到检查信息来源、确保它们不是胡说八道，历史修正主义的乐趣真是多种多样。

The historian, Alex, and you talking about checking your sources and making sure they're not nonsense, the joys of historical revisionism are manifold.

我记得我和这个教区的安德鲁·穆勒曾经有过一次精彩的对话，谈的是重演日，大家戴上头盔到处跑着喊叫。

And I remember Andrew Muller of of this parish and I once had a marvelous conversation about reenactment days where everybody puts helmets on and runs around shouting.

那如果中途他们说：等等，

And what if halfway through they go, well, hang on.

不，

No.

他们都往左走了，却没有往右走。

They all went left, and they didn't go right.

结果突然变成了一部蒙提·派森式的混乱修订版。

And suddenly, end up with a Monty Python revisionist series of chaos.

我的意思是，修订主义和核实信息来源到底造成了多大的困扰呢？

Mean, how much has revisionism and checking your sources been a major headache anyway?

我的意思是，这确实如此。

Well, mean, it certainly has.

而且汉娜说得完全对，一直以来都存在错误信息和虚假信息。

And absolutely, Hannah's completely right that there's always been misinformation, disinformation.

这根本不是什么新鲜事。

This is hardly new.

事实上，这种现象可以追溯到古代。

In fact, can find it really going back to ancient times.

要知道，这并不是什么新事物。

Know, this is not something new.

你可以看看，比如古埃及法老砸毁前任的雕像，以防止那段历史为人所知，这在古代世界就已经发生了。

You could look at, for instance, Egyptian pharaohs smashing up statues of their predecessors to avoid that history being known was already happening in the ancient world.

所以，从这些方面来说，这并不是新现象。

So, you know, in those senses, it's not new.

新的是，当然，如今制造和传播这些信息的速度，以及你能获得的覆盖范围之广。

What is new is the speed with which of course you can produce it and how much blanket coverage you can now get from that.

但是

But

是的

yeah,

我的意思是，这当然非常重要。

I mean, course, it's incredibly important.

而且我觉得很有意思的一点是，这么多年来我们一直目睹人文学科不断被削弱，可如今这些学科的重要性却达到了顶峰——如果你不具备这些能力，不会评估信息来源，不会交叉验证，没有掌握这些技能，那你在当今世界就只能茫然无措、寸步难行。

And I think it's very interesting that, you know, for years we've seen the erosion of the humanities, which are now incredibly important, because if you can't do that, if you can't assess sources, if you can't cross reference, if you don't know these skills, you're at sea in the world today.

另外尤其是在英国，长久以来大家都拿媒体研究专业开玩笑，说这门专业全是无稽之谈。

And of course in Britain particularly, had a long running joke about what nonsense media studies was.

可现如今我实在想不出还有什么比理解媒体更重要的事了

Well, I can't really think of anything much more important to understand

来应对当今的世界。

the world today.

很高兴听到你这么说

Glad to hear

没错

it.

我觉得说到这一点，特朗普和他的亲信在美国处处针对大学，还试图拆散整个高等教育体系，这绝非偶然

I I think to that point, it's there's it's no accident that Trump and his cronies have gone against universities in The United States and are trying to tear apart the whole fabric of higher education.

这就是批判性思维带来的风险，各位先生女士。

The danger of critical thinking, ladies and gentlemen.

对。

Right.

我们只有两分半钟的时间来讨论格温妮丝·帕特洛的裤子。

We've got two and a half minutes in which to talk about Gwyneth Paltrow's trousers.

我太兴奋了。

I'm so excited.

我们这里从不谈名人，所以这事儿最好能有个精彩走向，亚历克斯·冯·坦茨曼。

We don't do celebrity here, so this better be going somewhere good, Alex von Tunzelmann.

为什么格温妮丝·帕特洛的杂志和裤子不重要呢？

Why aren't Gwyneth Paltrow's magazines and trousers important?

这是一场好莱坞的名人拍卖会，这类活动其实挺常见的，通常是玛丽莲·梦露的遗物之类的东西。

Well, it's a celebrity auction in Hollywood, and these happen quite a lot, it's usually something like Marilyn Monroe's artifacts or something.

通常都是些已故人士的物品，因此会有一批他们的个人用品被拿出来拍卖。

It's usually somebody who is dead for starters and you know, sort of therefore there's some sort of trove of their belongings.

这次拍卖的特别之处在于，格温妮丝·帕特洛，嗯，万岁！

What's unusual about this auction is of course that Gwyneth Paltrow, you know, hurrah!

它仍然存在，而且非常活跃，正在拍卖她的一些物品。

It's still with us, very much so, and is just auctioning off some of her stuff.

所以出价一开始很低。

So the bids start quite low.

你实际上可以用不到100美元买到一些格温妮丝的东西，有些文具甚至不到50美元，或者一本旧版的《Cosmopolitan》杂志。

You can actually get yourself a bit of Gwynny's stuff for under $100 potentially, some even less $50 for some bits of stationery, or for an old copy of Cosmopolitan magazine.

那我们来一一看看吧。

So let's just go through this.

你有清单吗？列出了哪些东西在拍卖？

Do you have a list of what's up for grabs?

我这里有一些例子。

I've got a few things, some examples here.

那我们来玩个游戏吧。

So let's do a thing.

我们每个人要为第一件物品付多少钱？

How much are we all going to pay for first item?

个性化文具。

Personalised stationery.

好的。

Okay.

起拍价，有人出价吗？

Starting bid, anyone on that?

不感兴趣。

Not interested.

大卫，你得扮演大卫。

David, you have to play David.

这是游戏规则。

It's the game.

汉娜已经够了。

Hannah's got enough.

好的。

Okay.

不。

No.

没人对‘不’感兴趣。

No one's interested in No.

嗯，我们还有一些东西。

Well, we've got some things.

我的意思是，你知道，我挺惊讶的，发现大部分衣服已经吸引了大量出价。

I mean, you know, I was quite surprised to see most of the clothes are already kind of attracting lots and lots of bids.

比如，那件2001年的杜嘉班纳T恤，上面写着'Material Girl'，我觉得现在出价已经到800美元了。

So for instance, Dolce and Gabbana 2001 t shirt that says Material Girl, already up there at $800 I'd say

女士们，我们是在为汉娜的脸付800美元吗？

Are we paying $800 for Hannah's face, ladies

还有先生们？

and gentlemen?

太棒了。

That's marvelous.

这是否定。

That's a no.

我一直都想成为物质女孩。

I've I've always wanted to be a material girl.

是的。

Yes.

对。

Yes.

就这样。

There we go.

没错。

Exactly.

大卫可以拿走它。

David can have it.

现在是你闪耀的时刻。

Now is your golden moment.

目前一件瓦伦蒂诺连体衣售价600美元，我觉得这相当划算。

$600 currently for a Valentino jumpsuit, which I think is quite a bargain.

这还不错。

That's pretty good.

这不赖。

That's not bad.

我从来没穿过，但我并不在意。

I've never fit in it, but I don't care.

不。

No.

但也许你可以拥有它。

But maybe just you could have it.

有一件

There's a

她自己品牌Goop的黑色连体衣只要50美元。

black jumpsuit from her own label, Goop, is only $50.

所以我的意思是，你可以拥有那件。

So I mean, you know, you could have that.

我待会儿跟你抢那件。

Fight you for that one later.

是的。

Yeah.

但它们就是太不实用了。

But they're just they're so impractical.

Maggie，我们只有三十秒了。

Maggie, we got thirty seconds.

如果你在出售一些你的东西，如果我们参加Grinney的Goop拍卖，David，你卖什么？

If you are selling a bit of your stuff, if we're joining Grinney's Goop auction, what are you selling, David?

我们不是在卖咖啡机。

You're not we're not selling the coffee machine.

哦，不。

Oh, no.

不是那个自动咖啡机，但你可以买我的运动服。

Not the self coffee machine, but you can have my running clothes.

怎么样？

How is that?

穿过的运动服

Used running

先洗一下吗？

wash them first?

不用。

No.

不用。

No.

不用。

No.

这种汗水才让它有价值。

It's a it's a sweat that gives it value.

好的。

Okay.

我可不会为了这个跳进去。

I'm not leaping in for that.

亚历克斯，你在拍什么vlog？

Alex, what are you vlogging?

天啊。

Oh my goodness.

我有太多东西该处理掉了。

I've got so much stuff I should flog.

我觉得我应该来个格温尼大清理，但我觉得我自己的东西可能没她那些《时尚芭莎》旧刊值钱。

I think I should have a Gwynny clear out, but I don't fear that myself's probably worth a bit less than hers, all those old copies of Cosmopolitan.

我当然还有一套极其珍贵的单片眼镜，我永远不会卖它们。

I've got, of course, my very precious collection of monocles, which I would never sell.

这真是再正确不过的回答了。

That's so such the right answer.