凯茜·伍德的2026愿景：7%的GDP增长、AI需求激增、中美之争、自动驾驶出租车与比特币 | 与萨利姆·伊斯梅尔、AWG及戴夫·布伦丁的对话 #226

我不认为这是个秘密，希望不是。

I don't think it was a secret, hopefully not.

而且

And

我认为亚马逊的广告收入已经达到了500亿美元，但他们很早就开始了广告业务。

I think Amazon is up to $50,000,000,000 in advertising, but they started their advertising.

我的意思是，在人工智能时代，一切皆有可能。

I mean, anything's possible in the AI age.

我觉得他们两年内就能做到。

I think they could do it in two years.

但亚马逊的广告目标，我想大概是七年前就开始了。

But Amazon started its advertising objective, I'm going to say about seven years ago.

我觉得这张幻灯片上有趣的是，AI代理在长时间任务中的表现达到了80%的成功率。

What I found interesting on this slide here is AI agent performance on long duration tasks with an eighty percent success rate.

我觉得任何员工如果只有80%的成功率，都会被开除。

I think any employee at 80% success rate would get fired.

所以我们还达不到那个程度。

So we're not quite there yet.

是的，但关键是，如果你把前一张幻灯片和这张幻灯片结合起来看，前一张幻灯片暗示推理成本将趋近于零，仅仅因为它离零只差一个像素。

Yeah, but the thing is, if you look at the prior slide and this slide together, prior slide implies that cost of inference is going to zero, just because it's one pixel away from zero.

但即使离零只差一个像素，它也远未达到零，因为人们希望在无限长的思考循环中使用这些技术的需求是天文数字且永不满足的。

But it's not even close to zero when it's one pixel away from zero, because the desire to use these things in infinitely long thinking loops is astronomical and insatiable.

因此，无论推理成本变得多低，需求都会飙升，正是由于这个效应。

And so the demand is gonna go through the roof no matter how cheap the inference gets because of exactly that effect.

彼得，当你说到80%的成功率时，但如果你同时启动100个智能体，它们从80%提升到90%成功率的概率非常高，只要其中一个成功了就行。

Peter, when you say it's 80% successful, but if you launch 100 agents, your odds of it going from 80 to 90% success are very high, and just one of them figures it out.

这是一种蛮力方法。

And that's a brute force approach.

有更好的方法，但对智能的需求本质上是无限的。

There are better approaches than that, but the demand for intelligence is essentially infinite.

所以，接近零的推理成本离真正的零还很遥远，人们会不惜一切代价去获取更多我们

So that near zero inference cost is a long way away from zero, and people are gonna wanna spend whatever they can afford to get more We of

我同意这一点。

would agree with that.

我们会同意这一点。

We would agree with that.

我的意思是，观察Claude Bot非常有趣。

I mean, it's been fascinating to watch Claude Bot.

天哪。

Oh my god.

我的天。

Oh my goodness.

哦，天哪

It Oh my

它在一个周末内爆发了。

has exploded in a weekend.

是的。

Yeah.

在一个周末内。

In a weekend.

所以，对于我们所有的订阅者，如果你还没有看过OnX或访问过claudbot.ai，我建议你去看看这里有什么可用的功能。

So to all of our subscribers, if you've not yet seen OnX or gone to claudbot.ai, I think it is, and looked at what's available here.

这是你的个人版贾维斯。

This is your personal version of Jarvis.

我就这么叫它。

That's what I call it.

在你的电脑上，比如我见过的那个引爆网络的案例中，是在某人的Mac Mini上运行的。

On your computer, in this case on someone's Mac Mini, in the example that I've seen take the Internet by storm.

它能够通过聊天进行交流，让你吩咐它做事，并且能在早上自动醒来，向你展示它在夜间完成的所有任务，就像一个充满干劲的员工或实习生。

And it's being able to communicate via chat and ask it to do things and having it actually wake up in the morning and show you all the things it's done at night like an eager employee or intern.

这太惊人了。

It's amazing.

是的，这不仅仅是技术。

Yeah, it's not just technology.

它就像Suno、Sora或Arduino板一样。

It's like Suno or Sora or Arduino boards.

这也是一种文化现象，你可以向朋友展示你昨晚搭建的东西，让他们惊叹不已。

It's a cultural thing too, where you can show your friends what you built last night and blow their minds.

抱歉，Kathy，我能看出来。

Sorry, Kathy, could tell.

是的，不，不，不。

Yeah, no, no, no.

我只是想澄清一下，claud的发音是像CLAWD那样。

I just wanted to clarify that it's claud as in CLAWD.

这是对我们熟知并喜爱的Anthropix的‘claud’的一种巧妙玩味。

It's a little bit of a play on the claud we know and love, Anthropix.

而且它是开源的。

And it is open source.

我们的首席AI分析师已经使用过它，而且它已经帮他整理好了事务。

Our lead AI analyst has used it, and already it's organized him.

我能看出来。

I can tell.

能看出来他只用了一个周末和Cloudbot，就变得有条理多了。

Can tell how much better organized he is having just a weekend with Cloudbot.

是的，太棒了。

Yeah, amazing.

让它与众不同的是，它能连接你所有的社交媒体账户、邮箱账户以及你笔记本电脑上的任何内容。

And what makes it different is it connects to all your social media accounts, to your email account, anything on your laptop.

因此，它在自动化你的生活方面非常强大，可以实时向朋友展示任何内容，而不会陷入繁琐流程。

So it's incredibly powerful for automating your life, showing your friends whatever in real time without getting in the loop.

它没有直接来自大型AI实验室的原因是，如果出错，它可能在两秒内把你的整个电脑搞乱。

And the reason it didn't come directly from the big AI labs is because it could also scramble your entire computer in two seconds if something goes wrong.

因此，这种方式下它有点危险，使用时要小心，但这也正是它如此强大的原因。

And so it's a little bit dangerous that way, so be careful with it, but that's also what makes it so powerful.

亚历克斯，你对这里的AgenTex幻灯片有什么看法？

Alex, what are your thoughts on the AgenTex slide here?

首先，我要指出，它不再叫ClaudeBot了。

Well, first, I'll point out it's no longer ClaudeBot.

由于与Anthropic的商标问题，它现在叫MoltBot，它的吉祥物当然是一只龙虾。

It's now MoltBot due to trademark issues with Anthropic, and its mascot is, of course, a lobster.

所以，我们现在正处在《加速》第一章的阶段。

So we're we're very much living chapter one of Accelerando at this point.

我们赶上了，我们赶上了

We've caught up we've caught

了未来，我在我的通讯中写过

up with the future, and I've written in my newsletter

你和这只龙虾有什么关系吗？

you have something to do with the lobster?

我本来想说

I was gonna say

这是趋同进化。

This is convergent evolution.

我们发现自己面对这些智能且自主的龙虾，人们现在为这些龙虾提供数字家园，并赋予它们数字人格。

We we find ourselves with these intelligent autonomous lobsters, and people are giving the lobsters digital homes now and giving them digital personhood.

我们已经完全跟上了《加速》第一章的内容。

We have fully caught up with chapter one of Accelerando.

我今天在我的通讯中写到了这一点。

I wrote about this in my newsletter today.

不过，凯西，我想回到你之前提到的一个非常有趣的观点，据我所知，还没有其他人表达过这一点：许多人，包括我们这个播客里的嘉宾，都在为GDP担忧，担心超级通缩会暴露出GDP增长与真实财富增长之间的根本性错位。

I I think going back though, Kathy, I I think you you raised a really interesting point that I haven't heard to my knowledge anyone else articulate, which is so many people, including folks on on this pod, are hand wringing about GDP and, oh, won't hyper deflation somehow reveal the intrinsic misalignment between GDP growth and real wealth growth.

但我想你点出了一个我从未听别人提过的观点：随着人类将越来越多的服务委托给智能代理，这种委托在GDP统计上看起来就像商业活动。

But you you've, I think, put your finger on a point I've never heard anyone else articulate, which is that as humanity delegates more and more services to to agents, that delegation looks like commerce from a GDP perspective.

通过将人类自身、个人角色和生产力服务进行拆分，这些细分部分之间的所有互动——其中许多将是智能代理——都会累积到GDP中，表现为商业行为。

That by basically carving up humanity, individual humans roles and productive services and subdividing them, all of the interactions between those subdivisions, many of which are going to be agents, add are accretive to GDP and look like commerce.

因此，你实际上描绘了一个与普遍认知完全相反的图景：GDP统计数据可能在真实财富保持不变的情况下急剧膨胀。

So if anything, you're you're painting a story for the exact opposite of how GDP statistics can explode in real terms while real wealth perhaps remains constant as well.

所以我想问你，如果你能挥动魔杖，为人类定义一个完美的‘真实财富增长’标准——不是GDP增长——你会怎么定义它？

So I guess my question for you is if you could wave a magic wand and define Kathy Wood's perfect definition, not of GDP growth, but of real wealth growth for humanity, how would you define it?

财富增长与生产率增长密切相关。

Well, wealth growth is very much tied to productivity growth.

我说的是真实财富的增长。

And I'm talking about real wealth growth.

我不是指由价格驱动的真实增长，而是指技术赋能的生产率提升。

I'm not talking about real and price driven, you know, I'm talking more about, technologically enabled productivity gains.

我们曾在80年代和90年代略微体验过这种增长。

We got a taste of it, just a taste from the '80s and '90s.

那是互联网时代之前，从个人电脑开始，再到移动时代之前。

It was the pre internet age, starting with the PC, then pre Internet age and pre mobile age.

但那时，正是金融市场辉煌的时期，软件首次释放了巨大潜力，财富创造极为惊人。

But back then, which was a magnificent time for the financial markets, wealth creation was stupendous as software for the first time unlocked.

在80年代，我亲身经历了一段令人沮丧的时期，当时技术似乎反而拖累了生产率。

We went through a frustrating period in the '80s, I was there, where technology, it almost seemed as though it was hurting productivity.

当时确实有人这么认为。

There were some people out there saying that.

然后，微软出现了，砰的一声，接着互联网来了，砰的一声。

And then, of course, Microsoft came along and boom, and then we had the internet, boom.

所以这其实是在预示我们将要经历的一切。

So that was foreshadowing, just foreshadowing what we're going to experience here.

所以如果你看一下增长，增长确实加速了。

So there was if you look at growth, growth accelerated.

增幅不算大，但相比70年代糟糕的增长率，确实明显加快了。

Not a lot, but it accelerated certainly from the horrible '70s growth rates.

在70年代到80年代初的相当长一段时间里，生产率我认为是零甚至为负，之后生产率开始回升，金融市场繁荣，通胀也下降了。

Productivity was, I think, zero or negative for a good part of the '70s into the early '80s, and then we saw productivity picking up and the financial markets boomed, and inflation came down.

那时候，我之所以反复思考这个问题，是因为在我职业生涯早期，我们曾预测通胀会下降。

Back then and the reason I've thought about it so much is very early in my career, we had taken a position that inflation was going to come down.

大多数人认为，除非发生经济萧条，否则这不可能实现。

Most people thought that couldn't happen without a depression.

但实际情况恰恰相反。

It happened for the opposite reason.

这是因为与这些技术相关的生产率增长，以及合理的货币政策，我要说，生产率增长推动了单位增长。

It happened because of productivity growth associated with these technologies, a sensible monetary policy as well, I will say productivity growth lifted unit growth.

而这段历史与你从凯恩斯经济学中学到的内容截然不同，凯恩斯经济学主要与哈佛大学相关，它认为增长会引发通胀。

And the history this is unlike what you would learn from Keynesian economics, which that's associated with Harvard primarily, which says growth is inflationary.

增长并不会引发通胀。

Growth is not inflationary.

增长是通缩的。

Growth is disinflationary.

而我们即将进入的这个世界，是通缩的。

And in this world we're going into, it is deflationary.

一种积极意义上的通缩。

Deflation in the good sense.

当某样东西的价格下降时，对它的需求会激增。

When the price of something drops, the demand for it explodes.

我们在这里这张图表上，关于智能的部分，不就看到了这一点吗？

And we see that here on this chart right here on intelligence, right?

嗯。

Mhmm.

拜托了，亚历克斯。

Plea please, Alex.

请说。

Go ahead.

是的。

Yeah.

所以，凯西，关于这一点，我想再追问一下。

So so maybe just a a follow-up, Kathy, on that.

这似乎不仅是这些精彩图表的核心，也是我认为你在投资中更广泛观点的核心——GDP可能并不是衡量进步的最佳宏观指标。

So this seems like the crux of not just some of these amazing visuals, but also, I think, your broader thesis in investing that GDP may be not the best macro indicator for progress.

听起来你认为人均生产率是你关注的关键宏观指标，但我想知道，即使人均生产率，最终你也必须将其量化为美元或其他单位。

It sounds like you're saying something like per capita productivity is the key macro indicator you look to, but I guess I'm curious, even per capita productivity, ultimately you have to resolve that quantitatively down to units of dollars or some other units.

而你通过ETF进行的投资，我想知道，你认为应该用什么基准来衡量自己的表现？

And your investments via ETFs, I I think the the question in my mind is, like, what is the right benchmark to hold yourself to?

你显然在投资未来，而像标普500这样的 broader 指数，可能并不一定——你知道的，市场先生有时有点疯狂——能准确衡量对未来的进展。

You're you're very clearly in the business of investing in the future, and the the broader, call it the S and P 500 may or may not, you know, mister market is a little bit psychotic sometimes, may or may not be properly measuring progress toward the future.

如果必须用一个单一指标来衡量，你觉得我们应该用什么指标，让大家都能坐下来计算，从而衡量真正的进步？

What if if you had to put a single metric to it, what metric is it that we can all sort of sit down and calculate that that you're optimizing for, you think that progress itself should be indexed against?

首先，关于指数化，这对我来说是个非常敏感的话题，因为不幸的是，这正是金融市场的现状。

Well, first of all, in terms of indexation, that that is a live wire for me because, that is what has happened to the financial markets, unfortunately.

它们已经如此，而埃隆·马斯克对此有非常强烈的看法。

They have and Elon Musk feels very strongly about this.

我们曾和他进行过一次太空探索的对话，讨论这个话题的时间比我们原本想象的要长得多。

We had an ex spaces session with him and spent more time than I ever dreamed we would on this topic.

但标普500、纳斯达克，这些指数顶部的公司之所以上榜，是因为过去的成功。

But the S and P, the NASDAQ, the companies at the top of those lists are there because of past success.

如果我们是对的，我们正进入历史上最具颠覆性的创新时代，那么传统的世界秩序将被打破。

If we are right and we're moving into the most disruptive time from an innovation point of view in history, then the traditional world order is going to be disturbed.

现在，如果你看伊博森和辛克菲尔德的研究，标普500的名义回报率长期以来一直维持在个位数高位。

Now, the S and P 500, if you look at the Ibbotson Sinkefeld studies, the S and P 500 has returned nominal returns have been in the high single digit range over time.

我们认为这种情况将会改变，但标普指数需要一段时间才能跟上，因为它们需要看到收入增长和盈利能力，因此在纳入这些新股票方面存在滞后。

We think that that's going to change, but it'll take a while for the S and P to catch up because they need to see the revenue growth, they need to see profitability, and so they are lagged in terms of getting these new stocks in there.

如果你看看我们的重大观点，我们会进入一个关于颠覆性创新的部分，我们相信，未来五年内，这种创新在市场回报上的复合增长率将达到年化35%。

If you look at our big ideas, we go into a section where we say disruptive innovation, we believe, is going to compound in terms of returns in the market at a 35% annualized rate for the next five years.

有基金专注于这个领域吗？

Funds of is focused on that?

我们所有的基金都专注于此。

All of our funds are focused on it.

我们的旗舰基金，整合了所有平台，就是ARKK。

Our flagship, which incorporates all of the platforms, is ARKK.

所以，是的，这要求很高。

And so, yes, and that's a tall order.

你知道，我们经历了一段非常艰难的时期。

You know, we went through a very tough period.

在新冠疫情带来的供应链冲击和货币政策影响下，所有创新领域都遭到重创，包括Inventure。

Innovation everywhere was crucified, including Inventure, as we went through the supply shocks and the monetary policy associated with COVID.

所以很少有人相信这一点，因为创新最近经历了如此艰难的时期。

So very few people believe this because innovation has been recently through such a tough time.

我们认为它正在走出低谷，那根橡皮筋已经被拉长了。

We think it's coming out the other side and that that rubber band has stretched.

事实上，新冠疫情加速了世界的数字化进程，也就是我们生活的方方面面。

And in fact, COVID has accelerated the digitalization of the world, right, of every part of our lives.

看看这里，ARKK在过去两年中的年化回报率约为31%至33%，这相当惊人。

And just looking here, ARKK has seen about a 31% to 33% annualized rate of return over the last two years, which is pretty amazing.

是的，我们的三年数据正开始向我们所说的数字靠拢，但为了达到平均值，我们必须超过35%。

Yes, so our three year numbers are starting to ramp towards the number we're saying, but in order to average, we'll have to go past that 35%.

我认为我们会做到，但大多数人一听到这个，就会翻白眼，因为他们太固守这些基准了。

And I think we will, but again, most people think, you know, in our business, their eyes roll because they're so wedded to these benchmarks.

现在，如果我想衡量经济进步，我会关注大多数人只盯着GDP的时候，而GDP其实是国民总收入的另一面，我们从税务部门——比如国税局以及州和地方税务机构——能获得大量信息。

Now, if I'm going to try and get at an economic measure of progress, I'm going to look while most people focus on GDP, that is the other side of gross national income, which is measured we get a lot of information from the tax, you know, the IRS and the state and local tax authorities.

因此，这一指标在反映增长速率方面会更加准确。

So, that metric is going to be more accurate in terms of the kind of growth rates.

它们应该相等，但并不相等。

And they should equal, but they don't.

总会有统计上的差异。

There's always a statistical discrepancy.

这种差异正在扩大，因为我们无法从产出端衡量我们在这里讨论的一些影响。

And that discrepancy is growing because we can't measure from an output side some of the effects that we've been talking about here.

然而，这些影响会在收入端体现出来。

That will show on the income side, however.

所以GDP是答案，还是GNI？

So GDP is the answer or GNI.

这并不是某种正确的做法。

It's not some sort of Right.

人均

Per capita

我认为应该是GNI。

I think it would be GNI.

生产力也是一种非常难以衡量的东西，因此我们认为它如今被低估了，年增长率大约为2%。

Productivity is also something very hard to measure, And that's why we believe it's being underestimated today, and it is about 2% on a year over year basis.

我们认为它被低估了。

We think it's under measured.

那么，这意味着什么？

Now, what does that mean?

GDP的构成方式是，如果我们低估了生产力，那么我们就低估了实际GDP增长，同时高估了通货膨胀。

The way the GDP is constructed, if we are underestimating productivity, then we're underestimating real GDP growth and we are overestimating inflation.

因此，这是一个相互关联的小谜题，但存在如此多的测量误差，如果政策制定者没有我们这样的思维模式，而只是信任这些公布的数据，他们就会犯错。

So it's a little puzzle that fits together, but so much mismeasurement that policymakers, if they are not in the mindset we're in, and they're trusting these numbers that are coming out, they are going to make mistakes.

政策制定者也会选择对自己有利的数据来支持自己的观点。

Well, policymakers also choose the numbers convenient to make their points.

这经常是这样

That very often is

而且他们有很多数据可以选择。

And they have lots of numbers to choose from.

我想让我们继续推进下一个话题，你知道，在你的宏大构想报告中，你谈到了美国与中国的关系。

I want to move us forward into this next, you know, in your big ideas report, you had a conversation about US versus China.

我认为这正是当今特朗普政策的核心驱动力。

And I think this is driving very much of the Trump policies today.

大卫·萨克斯目前也在谈论这个问题。

David Sachs speaks about this currently.

这正是我们刚从达沃斯回来后热议的话题。

This has been a large conversation just coming back from Davos.

与此同时，也有人在说我们需要放慢脚步，因为我们还不清楚在AGI或ASI（无论你怎么称呼它）崛起的背景下，我们究竟会走向何方。

And, you know, there's at the same time we have people speaking about we need to slow down because we don't understand where we're heading in with the emergence of AGI or ASI, whatever you want to call it.

但让人担忧的是，如果美国不能占据主导地位，就有可能在全球金融上陷入失败。

But the boogeyman is if The US doesn't dominate, it has a chance of failing globally financially.

顺便说一下，你知道，我们可以谈谈美元作为全球储备货币的地位，它在全球使用率上一直在下降，这是一个挑战。

And by the way, the number you know, we can talk about the US dollar as global currency reserve, which has been falling in terms of its utilization globally, which a challenge.

与此同时，这些情况正在发生。

At the same time, this is going on.

所以，你能花点时间给我们解释一下这张图表吗？是的。

So, would you take a second and walk us through this chart that is Yes.

从你的

From your

我们一直在追踪中国推出的全部大型语言模型。

We have been tracking all of the models, large language models coming out of China.

它们都是开源的。

They're all open source.

实际上，是我们迫使中国加入了开源运动。

We actually forced China into the open source movement.

我非常喜欢开源。

And I love open source.

我对开源有着坚定的信念。

I have a high degree of conviction in open source.

Linux 一直是典范。

Linux has been the poster child.

我们指的是美国，你是这个意思吗？

We as in The US, you're saying?

是我们美国迫使中国这么做，因为我们停止向中国销售软件。

We US forced China because we stopped selling our software into China.

是这些公司做的。

The companies did.

这并不是因为知识产权盗窃而采取的政府举措。

This was not a government initiative because of IP theft.

所以他们停止了软件销售。

And so they stopped selling software in.

在这里，经过一个深刻的时刻，我们学到了什么？

And here, with a deep seat moment, what did we learn?

哇，他们确实充分利用了开源。

Wow, have they capitalized on open source.

现在他们已经领先于我们，而Llama 4的失败，正是Meta的开源尝试。

And now they're ahead of us, and Lama four falling flat the way it did, which was Meta's open source attempt.

我认为现在它也要转向闭源了。

I think it's now going closed as well.

这告诉我，中国在开源领域正在超越我们。

It tells me that China's stealing the march from us on open source.

现在关于Claude机器人，抱歉。

Now Claude Bot, I'm sorry.

我给忘了。

I I forgot.

我不知道它已经被改名了。

I didn't know it had been renamed.

谢谢你告诉我。

Thank you for telling me.

你刚才说它叫什么来着？

Did you say it what was the

再重复一遍名字？

name again?

它现在叫Malt，就像甲壳类动物蜕壳一样，m-o-l-t，Malt Bot的吉祥物是龙虾先生。

It's it's now malt as in a crustacean molting its shell, m o l t, malt bot with its mascot being miss mister lobster.

好的。

Okay.

有可能。

Could be

就是昨天。

just yesterday.

对吧？

Right?

哦，是的。

Oh, yes.

凯西，你还没有

Cathy, you're not

出一个小时。

out of the hour.

你最多不超过二十四岁，我

You're not more than twenty four I

猜一天二十四小时，我

guess twenty four hours a day I

就像过了一年。

have is like a year.

凯西，亚历克斯最喜爱的书，我觉得戴夫和我紧随其后，这本书叫《加速》，第一章就从龙虾的神经结构被传送到宇宙开始，之后就一路展开。

Kathy, Alex's favorite book and I think Dave and I are right behind him on this is a book called Accelerando that opens in chapter one with neuronal structure of lobsters being beamed down to universe and it goes from there.

亚历克斯以分钟为单位追踪新闻。

Alex tracks the news at minute to minute levels.

所以觉得自己落后于亚历克斯，对每个人来说都再正常不过了。

So feeling like you're behind Alex is totally normal for everybody.

嗯，你知道，这很有趣。

Well, you know, it's interesting.

我们刚开完晨会，通常我们对这些事都了如指掌。

We just got out of our morning meeting and usually we are all right on top of all of this.

谢谢你们让我通知其他人。

So thank you for letting I'll me let everyone else know.

关于龙虾，有趣的是，我在这里圣彼得堡的达利博物馆担任董事会成员。

And you know, the interesting thing about lobsters, I'm on the board of the Dali Museum here in St.

彼得。

Pete.

全球只有两个达利博物馆，一个在巴塞罗那，另一个就在这里。

There are only two Dali museums, one in Barcelona and one here.

他经常在作品中描绘龙虾。

He featured lobsters in his art regularly.

我得读一读这本书。

I'm gonna have to read this book.

是的。

Yes.

我认为我在我的通讯中已经提到过，龙虾是奇点的新吉祥物。

I think I've made the point in my newsletter, lobsters are the new mascots for the singularity.

这太有趣了，因为达利的文字是

It's so interesting because I'll Dalit text was

发给你了，凯西。

it to you, Kathy.

我发给你了

I'll text it

太迷人了。

Fascinating.

达利其实非常注重科技，你知道吗？

To you right Dali was so technology oriented.

我不知道你是否了解这一点。

I don't know if you know that about him.

他的艺术作品中包含了双螺旋结构，也就是DNA，在沃森和克里克刚发现它之后不久。

His art included the double helix, so DNA, right after Watson and Crick really identified it.

在20世纪50年代末到60年代初，他的画作中就已经出现了这种元素。

And in the early 60s I think they did in the 50s in the early 60s, there it was in his paintings.

你知道吗，我觉得这非常有趣。

And you know, so I find this fascinating.

你知道吗，我觉得这很有趣，尤其是其中的龙虾元素。

You know, I find this fascinating, the lobster element of it.

总之

Anyway

象征着经济增长的蜷曲甲壳类动物。

Cumbled crustacean embodying economic growth.

是的。

Yeah.

好的。

Alright.

我已经把那个发给你了，Kathy，好好享受吧。

I've texted you that, Kathy, so enjoy.

谢谢。

Thank you.

所以，Claude Bot 或 Malt Bot 是开源的，我认为这起源于美国，也许这就是未来的发展方向。

So the Claude Bot or Malt Bot is open source, and I think that started in The US, so maybe that's where this is going.

我刚刚参加了一个叫 Bitcoin Brainstorm 的电话会议，和 Alex Gladstein 一起，他也开始对人工智能和比特币及其协同作用着迷。

And I was just on a call, it's called the Bitcoin Brainstorm, with Alex Gladstein, who's now become infatuated with AI as well as Bitcoin and how they can work together.

但他对 Cloudbot 非常热衷，这股热潮正席卷全球。

But he was all over Cloudbot, and it's mean, it's just taking the world by fire.

因此，这里体现的是个人的能动性，而不是大公司的力量。

And so this is the individual agency at work here, not the big companies at work.

所以，我很期待看到这件事将如何发展。

So, it's going to be fascinating to see where this goes.

无论如何，我很高兴我们又重新回归到开源运动中。

Anyway, so I'm glad we're hopping back into the open source movement.

如果你看一下投资占 GDP 的比重，我们也在《大想法》中提到过，这包括房地产，并且涵盖了中国和美国。

If you look at and we have this in Big Ideas as well if you look at investment as a share of GDP Now, this includes property, and it's both in China and The U.

美。

S.

在美国。

In The U.

我们的投资占GDP的比例略高于20%。

S, our share of GDP is a little north of 20%.

在中国，这一比例是40%，自他们加入世界贸易组织以来就一直如此。

In China, it's 40%, and it's been there since they moved into the World Trade Organization.

所以，他们的投资现在包括房地产，但我们知道房地产在那里正大幅贬值。

So their investment now, it includes property, but we know that property is deflating big time there.

因此，他们的投资仍维持在40%左右，因为习近平已将口号从单纯的共同富裕转向了新质生产力。

So, their investment is staying up at that 40% range because Xi Jinping has moved away from solely common prosperity as the slogan towards new productive forces.

这完全关乎技术。

That's all about technology.

所以，他们正在大量投入资金，源源不断地投入其中，我们应当保持警惕。

So, they are pouring money, pouring money into this, and we should be on guard.

我认为我们了解他们的开源运动很棒，因为没有什么比竞争更能推动美国了。

And I think it's great that we know about their open source movement because there's nothing like competition to get The U.

S.

S.

Going.

Going.

所以我认为这种竞争非常好。

So I actually think the competition is very good.

如果你想看看人工智能在中国医疗领域的应用，那真是令人难以置信。

And if you want to see China at work in AI as applied to health care, It's unbelievable.

彼得，我知道你谈过这个。

And Peter, I know you've talked about this.

这里发生的事情真是令人难以置信。

It's unbelievable what's going on here.

Insilico Medicine的首席执行官亚历克斯·泽巴伦科夫刚刚在港交所上市。

Alex Zebarenkoff, who's the CEO of Insilico Medicine, just went public on the Hong Kong Exchange.

认购倍数高达1200倍。

1,200 times oversubscribed.

我跟他聊过，他昨天还在北京，我和他通过Zoom通话。

I talked to him, he was in Beijing yesterday, I was zooming with him.

那里的生物科技市场正在爆炸式增长。

And the market there in biotech is exploding.

确实是。

It is.

是的。

It is.

而且这些公司都在上市。

And the companies are going public.

还有一个金融市场的推动力在加速这一进程。

And there is a financial market driving the acceleration.

政府也在大量投入资金。

And the government is pouring money in.

好事是，而且

It is the good thing is And the

临床试验方面，他们的表现好得多，就数量而言，现在中国进行的临床试验远多于西方。

clinical trials, they're doing a far better I mean, in terms of the raw numbers, many more clinical trials happening in China now than the West.

是的，部分原因是我们的监管比他们的严格得多。

Yes, and part of that is our regulation is so much more strict than theirs.

这种情况正在改变。

That is changing.

是的，FDA局长正在努力消除各种障碍，做得非常好。

Yeah, the FDA commissioner is doing a great job bringing down barriers.

萨利姆，你能在这场中美对话中分享一下你的观点吗？

Salim, can I hear your voice in The US versus China conversation here?

好的。

Yeah.

我仍然认为，随着我们向富足迈进，这种紧张关系变得不那么重要了。

I continue to think that as we push towards abundance, that this tension is less relevant.

我上一期播客中也提到过，我认为这场竞争最终将在应用层决定胜负，而美国在应用层拥有巨大的领先优势，因此会在这里胜出。

I also kinda made the point in the last podcast that I think, this will be won or lost at the application layer, and I think The US has such a massive lead in the application layer that, it'll it'll win there.

我的意思是，美国通过硅谷的思维方式对整个世界产生了巨大冲击，在所有应用层面上都占据了主导地位，唯一的例外是抖音，也许还有Spotify。

I mean, it's incredible to me how much The US via Silicon Valley thinking has blown the world apart and taken over on all application with one exception of TikTok and maybe Spotify.

但除此之外

But other

其他方面

than that

那能源层呢？

What about the energy layer here?

最后一件事

Last As thing

当我们把能源更贴近内循环时，这将是一个巨大的挑战。

we bring energy closer to the inner loop, it'll be a huge challenge.

这确实是真的。

That was definitely true.

不过，我认为凯西关于开源的观点比听起来重要得多，因为当你观察实际上在Anthropic和OpenAI内部研发这些核心算法的人数时，你会发现这只是一个极其微小的团队，而且他们非常傲慢。

I think Kathy's point on open source, though, is far more important than that makes it sound, because when you look at the number of people actually working on these core algorithms inside Anthropic and OpenAI, it's a tiny, tiny, tiny group of people, and they're super arrogant.

他们觉得自己是历史上最聪明的算法专家，就这样没完没了。

They think they're the smartest people in the history of algorithms, and you know, on and on and on.

一旦所有研究都从开源转向封闭模型，能够流入美国版本的创意数量就会受到极大限制。

And as soon as you move all the research out of open source and into just the closed models, the number of ideas that can flow into The US version of it gets throttled tremendously.

它确实攫取了所有利润，也确实解决了安全问题，但同时也让创新变得极其缓慢。

And it does capture all the money and it does also address the safety issues, but it also slows the innovation like crazy.

中国版的这种模式是，

The Chinese Chinese version of this it is,

是多个云平台，对吧？

is multiple cloudmultbot, right?

这是应用层让任何人都能实现自己的功能，而开源正是在这里蓬勃发展，坦率地说，美国也正是在这里大放异彩。

That's the application layer making it available to anybody to implement their functionality, and that's where open source thrives, and that's frankly where The US really thrives.

这与过去中国追赶时的做法也是一致的，你知道的，他们污染空气、污染水源，不管怎样先冲上去。

Well, it's consistent too with past Chinese, you know, in Chinese past races to catch up, you know, they poison the air, poison the water, whatever, just run.

别管监管问题。

Don't worry about the regulatory issues.

别担心那些有毒的烟雾。

Don't worry about the toxic fumes coming out.

我们需要赶上来。

We need to catch up.

所以AI版的做法就是：把一切都开源吧。

So the AI equivalent of that is, look, just open source everything.

让我们的14亿人口去尝试各种想法，我们会疯狂创新，而且他们是对的。

Allow our 1,400,000,000 person population to try things, and we'll innovate like crazy, and they're just right.

他们从根本上就是对的。

They're fundamentally right.

有更多人参与其中。

Having that many more people work on it.

现在，对美国来说唯一的好消息是，这种开源成果会直接回流到美国。

Now, the only good news for The US is that that open source flows right back to The US.

这并不是说它被藏在中国，但我真的相信开源社区的创新速度要快得多，但与此同时，它在各种负面应用场景下也极其危险。

It's not like it's hidden in China, but I really do believe the open source community innovates much, much more quickly, but it's also very, very dangerous in terms of all the negative use cases.

有趣的是，我们的政府对Meta平台收购Manus一事没有任何表态。

It's interesting that our government has had nothing to say about Meta Platforms acquiring Manus.

现在，也许他们会有所回应。

Now, maybe they will.

Manus也是一家开源的中国公司。

Manus is an open source Chinese company as well.

而且，观察萨姆·阿尔特曼和黄仁勋的言论也很有意思。

And it is also interesting to have watched Sam Altman and Jensen Huang.

当他们谈到DeepSeek时，说那个算法相当巧妙。

When they talked about DeepSeek, they said, Hey, that algorithm was pretty clever.

为中国和DeepSeek的创始人点赞。

Kudos to China and the DeepSeek founder.

但你猜怎么着？

But guess what?

这给了我们机会将这些成果提炼到我们自己的模型中。

That has given us the opportunity to distill into our own models.

所以在软件方面，这非常有趣。

So it's very interesting on the software side.

我们的政府对此没什么话说，但硬件方面，当然就有很多可说的了。

Our government's not having much to say, but, the hardware side, of course, it has much more to say.

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This episode is brought to you by Blitzy, Autonomous Software Development with Infinite Code Context.

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工程师在每个开发冲刺开始时都会使用Blitzy平台，输入他们的开发需求。

Engineers start every development sprint with the Blitzy platform, bringing in their development requirements.

Blitzy平台会提供一个计划，然后为每个任务生成并预编译代码。

The Blitzy platform provides a plan, then generates and precompiles code for each task.

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我来带大家进入下一个话题。

I'm gonna move us to our our next topic here.

顺便感谢一下 Google，因为我在这里用的是 Google 幻灯片的美化功能，凯西，

Just a quick shout out to Google because I end up using Google Slides here and the beautification function, Kathy,

这让我们不得不这么做。

is what makes these like, we have to do this.

是的。

Yeah.

谷歌的 AI 在美化幻灯片方面做得非常出色。

They're Google Google's AI does an incredible job at beautifying slides.

所以，合适的工具用在合适的地方。

So just, you know, the right tool for the right the right purpose.

当然。

Absolutely.

彼得，我得说你真行。

Peter, I gotta I gotta hand it to you.

你已经不用PowerPoint了。

You moved off PowerPoint.

是的。

Yes.

听我说。

Well, listen.

就像，Google打造了一个更好的产品。

It's just like, you know, Google built a better product.

好吧。

Alright.

我们来谈谈比特币吧。

Let's let's talk about Bitcoin.

是的。

Yes.

所以，你知道，几年前你和我一起在现场演讲，两年前因为疫情则是通过视频参与的。

So, you know, I you were on stage with me live a few years ago and then on video two years ago because of COVID.

但你之前预测比特币会达到一百万美元，你仍然坚持这个目标吗？

But your prediction of getting to a million dollars of Bitcoin, do you still hold out for that kind of a target?

即使我们最近看到市场下跌，你看到了什么让你依然抱有希望？

What are you seeing that gives you hope even while we're seeing this recent downturn?

跟我们分享一下你对比特币的看法和预测吧，凯西。

Give us your sort of thoughts and projections on Bitcoin, Kathy.

当然。

Sure.

我们并没有改变这个观点。

We have not moved off that.

这是我们看涨的预测：2030年达到150万美元。

That's our bull case, 1,500,000 in 2030.

有一些结构性的变化。

There are a few compositional changes.

第一，稳定币，尤其是泰达币在新兴市场中，已经取代了我们原本认为比特币会扮演的角色。

One, stablecoins, so especially Tether in the emerging markets, have usurped one of the roles that we thought Bitcoin would serve.

在稳定币出现之前，人们会购买比特币作为对抗财富被没收的保险，这种没收可能表现为通胀、恶性通胀和频繁发生在新兴市场的严重贬值，或者直接的财富没收。

And that is we thought that before stablecoins that people would, and they were, they would buy Bitcoin as an insurance policy against confiscation of wealth, either in the form of inflation, hyperinflation and massive devaluations, which occur regularly in the emerging markets, or outright confiscation of wealth.

因此，现在稳定币承担了这一功能。

And so, stablecoins now serve that purpose.

稳定币实际上由美元支持。

Stablecoins are backed effectively by the U.

美元，

S.

因此受制于我们的法定货币体系。

Dollar, and therefore are hostage to our fiat monetary system.

这会使我们的价格目标下调20万至30万美元。另一方面，最近黄金发生了什么变化？

So that would have taken our price target down by $200,000 to $300,000 On the other side, what has happened to gold recently?

过去两年里，黄金价格翻了一番，并且在过去一年中远超比特币的表现。

Gold has doubled over the last two years and has outperformed Bitcoin royally in the last year.

因此，我们认为随着全球代际财富转移加速，年轻一代将转向数字黄金资产，而非实物黄金。

So the digital gold role and we think with intergenerational wealth transfers accelerating here throughout the world that the younger generation will diversify into a digital gold option rather than the physical gold.

这更符合他们的世界。

It's more their world.

因此，我们认为这一角色的重要性已经提升，或者黄金的表现将支撑比特币的价格。

And so we think that role has increased or that the price should be supported by what has happened to gold.

现在，如果你看一下2025年的相关性矩阵，比特币与黄金的相关性几乎为零，仅为0.14。

Now, if you look at a correlation matrix between 2025, the correlation between Bitcoin and gold has been almost nonexistent, 0.14.

但若回顾历史，尤其是在过去两个周期中，黄金一直领先于比特币。

But if you look at what's happened historically, certainly the last two cycles, gold has led Bitcoin.

因此，我们认为比特币正准备迎来另一次大幅上涨。

So we think Bitcoin is getting ready for another big run.

过去几个月发生的事情是十倍增长。

What has happened in the last few months is tenten.

所以，10月10日因币安的软件故障引发了闪崩，导致大量高杠杆的投机者或投资者被强平。

So, October 10 was the flash crash caused by a software glitch at Binance, And it a lot of highly leveraged either speculators or investors way offsides.

发生了自动去杠杆化，约有280亿美元的仓位被强平。

There was an automatic deleveraging that took place, about $28,000,000,000 worth of being offsides.

我们听说这些清算已经基本清理完毕。

And we're hearing that that has pretty much cleared out.

因此，我们对比特币抱有很高的期望。

So we have very high hopes for Bitcoin.

与团队交流时，我们昨天在比特币头脑风暴中讨论了很多人，他们的想法是：稳定币是否在发挥人道主义作用，作为一种由美元支持的保险政策。

Talking to the team, we had a number of people on the Bitcoin brainstorm yesterday, you know, thinking is, okay, stablecoins are they're serving a humanitarian purpose, this insurance policy backed by the dollar.

但请记住，这是比特币群体的观点。

But and consider this is the Bitcoin crowd.

他们相信——我也这么认为——比特币的使命是自由，即摆脱所有政府监管、审查和资产没收等限制的金融自由。

They believe, and I do too, that Bitcoin, its cause is freedom, financial freedom, from all government oversight and so forth, and from censorship and seizure and all sorts of things.

随着新兴市场财富的增长，我们认为这是一个全球性现象，伴随着这些技术的发展，人们将从储蓄的角度转向比特币。

As emerging markets' wealth grows, and we think this is a global phenomenon with all these technologies, They will move towards from a savings point of view.

目前，他们大多处于勉强维持生计的状态。

Right now, they're hand to mouth for the most part.

但从储蓄的角度来看，他们会转向比特币。

But from a savings point of view, they will move into Bitcoin.

就像萨尔瓦多那样。

Like El Salvador.

我的意思是，比特币一直被视为对抗美元通胀压力的手段。

I mean, Bitcoin was always viewed as the counter to the inflationary pressures of the dollar.

随着世界因战争、通胀加剧、后疫情时代货币超发而变得更加不稳定，人们会涌向比特币，以保全财富，而不是让财富因通胀而蒸发。

That as as the world becomes more unstable with wars, inflation increases, post COVID, more money is printed, that people would flock to Bitcoin to sustain wealth versus having it inflated away.

但我觉得我们实际上还没看到这种情况。

And I don't think we've actually seen that.

你有看到吗？

Do you?

嗯，我知道如果从熊市低点来看，也就是2022年底，股票和加密货币市场，比特币已经上涨了，大约360%。

Well, I know that if you look at from the bottom of the bear markets, equity and crypto in late 'twenty two, Bitcoin has gone up, I think it's roughly 360%.

所以，当时其中一个原因确实是通货膨胀，以及人们担心美联储无法控制住它。

So definitely one of the reasons was the inflation back then and fears that the Fed would not get it under control.

因此，我认为它确实发挥了作用。

So I think it has played the role.

我经常被问到的问题是：等等，你预期的不是通货膨胀，而是通货紧缩。

The question I get a lot is, wait a minute, you're expecting not inflation, but deflation.

这难道不会削弱你认为比特币将发挥的重要作用吗？

Doesn't that take away an important role that you think Bitcoin's going to play?

我们的回答是：是的，比特币是对抗通货膨胀的避险工具。

And, our answer there is yes, Bitcoin is a hedge against inflation.

它的总量在数学上被限定为2100万枚，目前每年增长0.8%，未来将降至0.4%。

It's mathematically metered to top out at $21,000,000 It's going up 0.8% per year right now, which will drop to 0.4%.

由于黄金矿工可以随时外出开采，响应价格信号，比特币的供应增长速度现在已慢于黄金的供应增长。

Its supply is now rising more slowly than gold's supply because gold miners can just go out and, you know, they can respond to this price signal.

因此，他们的采矿活动已经增加了。

So their mining has picked up.

但通缩这一面呢？

But what about the deflation side?

如果你想想2008年、2009年那次灾难性的通缩，它威胁到了全球金融体系的崩溃，引发了各种对手方风险，而比特币正是对这种风险的对冲工具。

Well, if you think about 'eight, 'nine, which was the catastrophic deflation, threatened a global financial bust, introducing all kinds of counterparty risk, Bitcoin is a hedge against that.

如果你自己保管比特币，你就不会面临任何对手方风险。

If you self custody Bitcoin, you're not subject to any counterparty risk.

它属于你，就在你的钱包里。

It's yours, and it's in your wallet.

因此，我们认为比特币在这两方面都扮演着非常重要的角色，尤其是如果我们对世界将被这五大创新平台和十五种融合技术所颠覆的判断正确的话，那么传统世界秩序将陷入巨大混乱，破产事件可能会比许多人想象的要多得多。

And so we think it plays a very important role in both, and especially if we're right on how disruptive the world is going to be disrupted by these five innovation platforms, 15 different technologies that are converging, then, you know, there's going to be a lot of chaos in the traditional world order, and there's probably going to be a lot more bankruptcies out there than many people You

你知道，关于混乱，凯西，我们现在正看到伊朗的一个绝佳案例，我童年时曾在那里生活。

know, of chaos, Kathy, we're getting a great case study right now in Iran, you know, where I spent my childhood.

我们风投基金里有个实习生叫法拉，她说她父母还住在伊朗。

We had an intern in our venture funds, Farah, and she said her parents are still in Iran.

她是伊朗人，她父母仍在伊朗，而多年来，我们小时候买米和其他东西的那个集市里，所有交易都是用比特币完成的。

She's Iranian, and her parents are still in Iran, and all the transactions for years now at the bazaar where we used to buy rice and stuff when I was a kid, they're all done with Bitcoin.

每个人都必须有一部手机。

Everybody has to have a phone.

你买东西的唯一方式就是用比特币。

The only way you can actually buy things is with Bitcoin.

这种情况已经持续好几年了。

And that's been going on for years.

我觉得这可能是非法的。

I think it's probably illegal.

但没人在乎。

Nobody cares.

现在你看到一场革命了。

And now you've got a revolution.

显然，这种货币在现阶段已经完全无法使用了。

Obviously the currency is completely unusable at this stage.

这个国家正濒临崩溃的边缘。

The country is teetering on the brink.

所以，我在区块链账本报告中注意到，几年前，来自伊朗的交易占了极其不成比例的份额。

So, and I noticed in the blockchain ledger reports, you know, this was a couple years ago, a hugely disproportionate fraction of transactions come from Iran.

这将是一个很好的预警信号，因为你知道，这种动荡在委内瑞拉以及全球各地都很常见，你会发现世界上很大一部分人口生活在不稳定的地区。

So this will be a good bellwether, because you know, that kind of disruption, you know, Venezuela and all around the world, you look at just massive fraction of the population of the world lives in unstable places.

如果所有伊朗人都转向比特币，因为人们即将尽快逃离该国，那么这将是一个预警信号，也是一个案例研究，说明未来可能发生在世界上超过一半人口身上的情况——随着即将到来的各种动荡。

So if all of Iran moves to Bitcoin because people are gonna be fleeing the country imminently as quickly as they can get out, then that's a bellwether and a case study for what could happen to probably, you know, over half the population of the world with all the disruption that's coming.

我有一个符合ARK Invest标准的追踪系统。

I have I an ARK Invest worthy tracking system

好的。

Okay.

黄金的市值几乎是比特币的近十倍，但比特币的日交易量只有黄金的四分之一。

Which is the market cap of gold is almost times that of Bitcoin, but the daily trading volume of Bitcoin is only a quarter of what gold is.

它已经达到了四分之一。

It's already a quarter.

因此，从比例上看，比特币的交易量远远超过黄金，我觉得这是一个非常有趣的指标。

So the proportionately, the amount of trading volume of Bitcoin is way, way exceeds that of gold, and I find that a really fascinating indicator.

是的

Yes.

在印度和伊朗也是如此，人们大量囤积黄金。

Right in India and Iran too, huge hoarders of gold.

你知道，当你有多余的钱时，你基本上会尽量多买黄金，因为你能带着它离开国家，而且它似乎能保值，其他任何东西都不稳定。

You know, what you do fundamentally with your surplus money is you try and buy as much gold as you can, and because you can leave the country with it, and because it seems to hold its value, and and nothing else is stable.

但如果人们开始信任加密货币，特别是比特币，就像你所说的，这就意味着一种代际思维的转变。

But if people start to trust crypto, or Bitcoin in particular, instead of gold, like you said, there's a generational mindset shift.

所以我认为，目前在伊朗，比特币是一种交易手段。

So I think in Iran right now it's a transactional mechanism.

你没法用黄金轻松买一袋大米，但你可以用比特币。

You can't use gold easily to buy a bag of rice, but you can use Bitcoin.

但我认为，如果思维转向将比特币作为价值储存手段，就像迈克·萨勒所说的，那么这种转变会迅速在全球一代人中蔓延开来。

But I think if the mindset shifts to store of wealth, like Mike Sailor is saying, then that will percolate across the world, you know, very quickly across one generation.

绝对如此。

Absolutely.

我们完全同意。

We we agree wholeheartedly.

所以这张幻灯片显示，数字资产的市值可能达到20万亿美元，这相当于2010年美国股市的总规模。

So this next slide here is digital assets could reach 20,000,000,000,000 in market value, which implies their their entire size of The US stock market back in 2010.

我的意思是，对吧？

I mean Right?

这差不多相当于现在美国经济的规模。

And it's the size of The US economy now, roughly.

是的，没错。

Yes, exactly.

疯狂。

Insane.

我的意思是，还在增长。

I mean, and growing.

是的。

Yes.

法律法规正在放宽以支持这一趋势，同时越来越多的公司涌现以加速这一进程。

And the laws are falling to enable this and companies are popping up to accelerate this.

你知道，智能合约正在迅猛发展。

You know, this this is smart contracts growing massively.

是的。

Yes.

凯西，你有什么看法吗？

Kathy, do you have

有什么想法吗？

any thoughts?

这所有的一切都关乎财富储存和取代货币。

So this is all about store of wealth and replacing currency.

但关于取代IPO呢？

But what about the replacing the IPO?

你知道，如果人工智能蓬勃发展，而埃隆是对的，我们会迎来三位数的增长率。

You know, if if AI takes off, and Elon is right, we get triple digit kind of growth rates.

以怎样的速度

Rate at which

人们非常需要这个问题，戴夫。

people Great need question, Dave.

是的，ICO会取代IPO吗？或者这将如何运作？

Yeah, does the ICO replace the IPO, or how's that gonna work?

是的，你知道，在比特币和以太坊的早期，人们普遍认为我们将在私募市场获得更公平的分布机会。

Yeah, you know, a lot of people have been In the early days of Bitcoin and especially Ether, there was this kind of thinking that we'd have much better distributed opportunities in the private markets.

我认为，比如罗宾汉公司。

I think, you know, we're seeing, for example, Robinhood.

罗宾汉希望与大公司合作，实现这些公司所有权的去中心化。

Robinhood wants to work with the big companies to decentralize the ownership of these companies.

我们也在这么做。

And we're doing that, too.

我们正在通过一种名为间隔基金的东西实现民主化。

We're democratizing with something called an interval fund.

Robinhood 对加密货币非常了解，并且从基础设施角度正在逐步构建相关体系。

Robinhood is very crypto savvy, and, from an infrastructure point of view, is building that up.

我不惊讶于看到，我们原本认为无需中介就能实现的场景，反而会先由 Robinhood 实现。

And I wouldn't be surprised to see a version of what we originally thought was going to take place without an intermediary happened first with a Robin Hood.

所以，我认为在未来三年内这是完全有可能的。

So, think it's very possible in the next three years.

是的。

Yeah.

我喜欢这个观点。

I love that view.

我们需要密切关注它的发展。

We to study that closely as it evolves.

肯定会发生一些事情，这是毫无疑问的。

Something is gonna happen, there's no doubt.

二级市场，我的意思是，戴夫，二级市场已经具备了一定的流动性。

The secondary I mean, Dave, the secondary markets have become some level of liquidity.

对吧？

Right?

所以，你知道，凯西，戴夫，LINK Ventures和LINK Exponential Ventures的负责人，我们以十亿零二十万美元的估值对麻省理工和哈佛的初创公司进行首次投资。

So, you know, Kathy, Dave, the head of LINK Ventures and LINK Exponential Ventures, you know, we're buying into companies out of MIT and Harvard at a $1,020,000,000 dollar valuation, first check-in.

它们迅速增长到一亿美元。

They're growing to a 100,000,000.

我们已经有不少公司迅速成长为十亿甚至二十亿美元的规模。

We've had a number of them grow to a billion, $2,000,000,000 very rapidly.

而这些公司都是由二十岁的年轻人创立的，对吧？

And these are companies started by 20 year olds, right?

十九岁的年轻人。

19 year olds.

这太疯狂了。

It's insane.

让它们实现退出，可惜的是，IPO市场虽然已经开始，但尚未像以往那样火热起来。

Getting them to an exit Unfortunately, the IPO market is beginning but hasn't frothed up where it's been.

并购市场一直受到抑制，公司们不再收购其他公司。

And the M and A market has been suppressed where companies are not buying companies.

他们现在购买的更像是公司的某些权益。

They are buying, you know, sort of rights to companies these days.

我想问的是，戴夫，你是否认为向二级市场出售是一种提供过渡性流动性的方法？

I guess the question is, you know, Dave, you're seeing selling into the secondary markets as a way to provide interim liquidity.

我们该如何加速这一进程？

And how we accelerate that?

对吧？

Right?

这是个很好的问题，因为我跟韦尔奇的迈克尔·卡门谈过这个话题，当时优步还是私有公司时，他是优步的巨额投资者，投资了数十亿美元，他说我们根本不需要让这家公司上市。

Yeah, it's great question because I talked to Michael Carmen over at Wellington about this because when Uber was private, he was a huge investor, a multi billion dollar investor from Wellington into Uber, and he was like, know, we can never take this, need to take this thing public.

我们可以在私募市场永远交易它，这才是未来。

We can just trade it in the private markets forever, and that's the future.

但后来人们有点害怕了，又跑回了美国的公开市场。

And then what happens is people get a little scared, they run back to The US public markets.

只要一出现任何问题、动荡，比如新冠疫情之类的，所有情况都会重新回到美国公开市场，因为那是最后值得信赖的依托。

Anytime there's any kind of trouble, turbulence, COVID, whatever, it all falls back to The US public markets because that's the last kind of trustworthy thing to lean on.

但它显然无法跟上人工智能的发展速度。

But it clearly won't keep up with the rate of AI.

所以一定会发生一些变化。

So something is gonna change.

这一点毫无疑问。

There's no doubt about that.

只是每当世界上出现任何恐慌时，人们就会回头依赖：我可以信任证交会，你可以信任公认会计准则。

It's just that, you know, anytime that there's any kind of fear in the world, it all falls back to, well, I can trust the SEC, you can trust, you know, GAAP accounting.

毕竟，如果一切

And at the end of the day, if everything

我的意思是，通用汽车、通用电气。

I trans mean, General Motors, General Electric.

我的意思是，看看吧，a16z现在估值高达900亿美元，泛大西洋资本是600亿美元。

I mean, look, A16Z is 90,000,000,000 now, General Catalyst is 60,000,000,000.

这笔钱不少，但按凯西·伍德的标准，这简直是个笑话，对吧？

That's a fair amount of money, but by Cathie Wood's standards, that's a joke, right?

在凯西的世界里，数字从万亿开始，往上可达十万亿美元。

In the Cathie world, the numbers start at trillion and they go to 100,000,000,000,000.

所以，如果你无法触达这个资本池，你就无法真正推动人工智能的发展。

So if you're not tapping into that capital pool, you're not gonna really drive AI.

因此，是的，我们还需要以某种方式突破另一个规模层级。

And so yeah, there's another level of scale we need to penetrate somehow.

戴夫，说到这个，我有个问题问你，凯西。

Dave, on that note, a question for you, Kathy.

到2030年，我们会看到市值达到十万亿的公司吗？

Are we gonna see $100,000,000,000,000 companies by 2030?

我们现在已经在见证市值五万亿美元的公司了。

We're seeing the $5,000,000,000,000 company now.

我们即将看到SpaceX上市，或许还会与特斯拉合并。

We're about to see SpaceX go public, maybe merge with Tesla.

很好奇你认为埃隆会通过什么方式为SpaceX实现流动性或稳定化，是合并还是IPO？

Curious about whether you think which way Elon's gonna get liquidity for SpaceX or stability.

是合并还是上市呢？

Is it gonna be a merger or an IPO?

我们能否看到数十万亿美元，甚至一万亿美元的公司估值？

And then, you know, can we see tens of trillions or a $100,000,000,000,000 valuation on companies?

你对此有什么看法？

What are your thoughts there?

是的。

Yeah.

这很有趣。

It's interesting.

我不确定他是否在你的播客中提到过这一点。

And I'm not sure if he said it on your podcast.

我不太确定我是在哪里听到这个说法的。

I'm not quite sure where I heard this.

但他提到过，他说：‘我能看到我旗下公司之间出现了我未曾预料到的协同效应。’

But he talked about he said, You know, I can see convergences among my companies that I didn't expect.

我们已经这么说了很久，因为人工智能领域，要获胜你必须拥有什么？

And we've been saying that for some time because the world of AI, what do you have to have to win?

你必须拥有专有数据。

You have to have proprietary data.

想想他拥有的各种专有数据：特斯拉，道路的语言数据。

And think about all the proprietary data he has, different kinds of proprietary data: Tesla, the language of the roads.

Neuralink 现在已经能获取多组学数据了。

Neuralink has got multiomics data now to source.

太空领域，没人有这些数据。

Space, nobody else has that data.

X 平台，也没人有这些数据。

X, nobody else has that data either.

还有隧道工程。

And boring.

没有人拥有这些数据。

No one has that data.

所以我认为，是的，十万亿美元。

So I could see, yes, 100,000,000,000,000.

我认为这会因为协同效应而发生。

I think it's going to happen because of convergence.

这个

The

所以你认为协同效应会催生一家价值一万亿美元的公司，时间在2000年？

So you convergence see a $1,000,000,000,000 company come online I by 2,000

我觉得有可能。

think there could be.

最有可能的是特斯拉，原因就是我刚才说的。

The leading candidate is Tesla for the reason I just said.

而且在这个过程中，可能会出现一些合并。

And there could be some combinations taking place as part of that.

所以，你知道，这也很有趣。

So, you know, it is interesting also.

我知道有传言说SpaceX正在联系投行，但我从未想过SpaceX会上市。

I know there are rumors about SpaceX lining up bankers, and I never thought that SpaceX would go public.

我觉得它没必要上市。

I didn't think it needed to go public.

我认为埃隆在公开市场上的特斯拉经历并不算太顺利。

And I think Elon's experience with Tesla in the public markets hasn't been the most welcoming.

但我认为，如果SpaceX要上市，那是因为这个轨道数据中心的机会，事情就是这样，对吧？

But I think SpaceX were to go public, it is because of this orbital data center opportunity, and there you have it, right?

其实，凯西，这个观点就出现在这个播客里。

That was on this pod, actually, Kathy.

关于埃隆的一件了不起的事是，我们给了他一个简单的问题，说：看看你帝国中所有正在汇聚到这个核心点上的东西。

One of the incredible things about Elon, we threw him a of a softball and said, look at everything that's converging in your empire toward this one centerpiece.

如果你实现了星链和通过卫星或激光链路构建的全球太空数据中心，那么你一生中所有成就都将汇聚成这一个价值十万亿美元的巨大成功。

If you achieve the Starlink and the global data center in space with satellite or with laser links, mean, you've ever done in your life converges to this one monstrous $100,000,000,000,000 success.