埃隆·马斯克谈通用人工智能时间线、中美竞争、就业市场、清洁能源与人形机器人 | 220

如果我们设定目标是获取太阳能量的百万分之一。

If we say that our goal is to even get a millionth of the sun's energy.

当然。

Sure.

这将比地球上可能产生的能量多出一千倍以上。

That would be more than a thousand times as much energy as could possibly be produced on earth.

所以大约有十亿分之五的太阳能量到达地球。

So about a half a billionth of the sun's energy reaches earth.

因此，你必须在此基础上提升三个数量级，才能达到百万分之一。

So you'd have to go up three orders of magnitude from that just to get to a million.

是的。

Yeah

所以我们离以任何方式 harness 太阳能量的十亿分之一都还非常非常遥远。

So We're very very very far from even have having a billionth of the Sun's energy harness in any way.

因此，一个合理的目标是努力达到百万分之一。

So a reasonable goal would be try to get to a millionth.

如果你试图达到百万分之一或千分之一，也就是百分之零点一，这将是如此巨大的挑战，你看，我们甚至找不到合适的比喻，因为‘爬山’这个说法根本不足以形容这种难度，就像引力阱一样

And if you try to get to a millionth or a thousandth, you know, point 1%, that's such an enormous, look, there's not sure what metaphor we would use here, because hill to climb is not a, like not a big enough medical Gravity well to

逃脱。

escape.

整个引力阱，所以如果你试图获取太阳能量的百万分之一或千分之一。

Whole of gravity well, So if you try to get to a millionth of the sun's energy or a thousandth of the sun's energy.

这些任务现在变得极其困难。

Like, now these are very, very difficult tasks.

而能源目前是所有事物的核心。

And energy is the inner loop for everything right now.

是的。

Yeah.

我认为，未来的货币本质上将只是瓦特数。

I I think like I I think the future currency will essentially just be wattage.

我在想，这究竟是一个人控制能源和计算的能力，还是仅仅指能源？

I was thinking is it is it is the ability of a person to control energy and compute or just energy?

我的意思是，这两者是相通的。

I mean, the two or the two translate.

就像是 harness energy（ harness 能量）。

It's like harness energy.

是的。

Yeah.

比如，本质上是将多少功率转化为某种形式的工作。

Like so or like basically how much power is being turned into work of some

类型。

kind.

对。

Right.

智能或物质操控。

Intelligence or matter manipulation.

所以你的下一个大项目将是能源。

So that's your next big project is gonna be energy.

这将是你要回到你的太阳能、你的太阳能

It's it's gonna be you're go back to your solar your solar

从那里扩展，想想如何达到卡尔达舍夫三级文明的水平，也就是星系级别的能量利用？

expand from there and say, what about even getting somewhere on a on a Kardashev three scale, meaning galaxy level?

这才有意思了。

Now we're talking.

现在我们又回到《星际迷航》了。

Now now we're back to Star Trek.

是的。

Yeah.

在这里拓展视野。

Expand horizons here.

对。

Yes.

那里甚至没有地平线，因为你已经不在我们的星球上了。

Where there isn't even a horizon because you're not on our planet.

所以我们之前聊过

So I we we talked about

所以我们认为是星系思维。

So so we think galaxy mind.

是的。

Yeah.

听好了。

Well, listen.

我们这座大楼里就有十一百一十五万平方英尺，三个五边形结构。

We're in eleven eleven point five million square foot, three pentagons right here in this building.

是的。

Yeah.

从一个相当大的规模来思考。

Think in a reasonably large scale.

规模有多大？

What is magnitude?

是的。

Yeah.

所以，从挑战的角度来看，我认为这是一场文明级别的挑战：如何实现能量利用的量级跃升。

So I mean, so from a challenge standpoint, I guess, the civil is a civilizational challenge will be how do you climb the orders of magnitude and energy harnessed.

但我们又回到了你为什么现在这么乐观的问题上。

But we're going back to why you optimistic right now.

我的意思是，当人们思考未来的挑战时，我认为从长远来看，我们最终会迎来富足。

I mean, when people think about the challenges ahead, I think we're gonna end up with abundance in the long run.

这是为了

It's for

超越任何人们所能想象的富足。

Beyond beyond abundance in any beyond what people possibly could think of as abundance.

比如，AI和机器人才是真正的限制。

Like the AI actually AI and robots are the limit.

我们将满足人类所有的欲望。

We'll we'll saturate all human desire.

当然。

Sure.

然后我们谈到纳米技术，它更进一步。

And then we get to nanotechnology, which takes it even a step further.

关于网络，我不确定你指的是什么。

The thing about the net well, I'm not sure what you mean by that.

我的意思是，纳米机器人对原子的重组。

I mean, like, the nanobots Atomic of the reassembly.

是的。

Yeah.

为了

For

哦，是的。

Oh, yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

当然。

Sure.

当然。

Sure.

我的意思是，我们已经在集成电路的原子层面进行组装了，你知道吗？

I mean, we're already doing atomic level assembly on the for circuits, you know?

太神奇了。

Amazing.

两到三纳米。

Two, three nanometers.

是的。

Yeah.

这仅仅取决于它们的排列方式，每纳米四到五个硅原子。

It's it's only depending on how they're arrayed four or five silicon atoms per nanometer.

是的。

Yeah.

但这些原子还挺大的。

So Those are big atoms though.

它们并不是，我的意思是，只是一小部分。

They're not I mean, a bit of it.

我只是说，你们实际上应该用特定数量的原子整数来描述电路，你们应该这么做。

I'm just saying you you could they should actually describe the circuits in terms of an integer number of atoms in a specific They should.

现在都是以埃为单位了。

It's all angstroms now.

我们可以直接称这个为七原子结构之类的。

Can just, it's just It's the like, we'll call this the seven atom or whatever.

你说两纳米，其实大概是九个原子。

Like you say two nanometers, it's like nine.

没人知道。

No one knows.

是啊。

Yeah.

九个硅原子，大概是这样，它们用了硅和铜之类的材料，但这些很多都只是营销数字，比如两纳米就只是一个营销术语。

Nine silicon atoms, something like They've got silicon and copper and, you know, so, but a bunch of these things are just marketing numbers, like the two nanometer is just marketing number.

哦，没错。

Oh yeah.

但你仍然需要接近原子级别的精度。

But you still need essentially close to atomic level precision.

原子真的必须位于正确的位置。

Like the atoms really need to be in the right spot.

顺便说一下，我认为现代晶圆厂对洁净室的理解是错误的。

So I think they're getting clean rooms wrong by the way in these modern fabs.

我来打个赌吧。

I'm gonna make a bet here.

好的。

Okay.

好吧。

Okay.

特斯拉会建一个两纳米的晶圆厂，然后我能一边吃芝士汉堡一边抽雪茄在厂里逛？

That's Tesla will have a two nanometer fab and I can I can eat a cheeseburger and smoke a cigar in the fab?

得了吧。

Oh, come on.

他们的操作能有这么精准？

Their handling will be that good?

好的。

Okay.

你有在脑子里画出这个方案吗？

Do you have this sketched out in

你的脑海里？

your mind?

原子是怎么被精准定位的，以至于能免疫芝士汉堡的油污？

Like how is it how are the atoms being placed that they're immune to cheeseburger grease?

他们整个过程都保持晶圆隔离，这其实是四纳米晶圆厂的默认做法。

They just maintain wafer isolation the entire time which is actually the default for four fabs.

晶圆被装在纯氮气箱中运输，是的。

The wafers are transported in boxes of pure nitrogen gas Yep.

在轻微正压下，

Under a slight positive know,

沃尔玛的香蕉怎么样？

are the bananas at Walmart?

所以你知道。

So you know.

这属于技术层面，像这种燃烧的东西，没有氧气是很难存活的。

That's, it's a tech Like side it's pretty hard for anything that's combusting to live without oxygen.

是的。

Yep.

所以，我们来谈谈，你只要用氮气覆盖，就能杀死细菌

So Let's talk about So you like, you can kill the bugs just by putting a nitrogen blanket

哦，有意思。

on Oh, interesting.

正面，是的。

Front Yeah.

有趣。

Interesting.

我想谈谈能源、健康和教育，因为这些是人们关心的问题。

I wanna talk about energy, health, education, because those are people's concerns.

所以在能源方面，你正在构建和做的一切的最内层循环是

So on the energy front, the innermost loop of everything you're building and doing right

现在。

now.

是基础。

Is the foundation.

你对能源富足的愿景是什么？

What's your vision for energy abundance?

太阳。

The sun.

在未来十年，太阳。

In the next decade, the sun.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，

I mean,

所以太阳就是一切。

so it's The sun is everything.

它就是一切。

It's everything.

所以你全力投入太阳能。

So you're all in on solar.

你的天然气

Mean, your natural gas

太阳能，你也是巨无霸，对吧？

and solar, you're Colossus too, right?

是的。

Yeah.

人们就是不明白太阳能为何如此重要。

People just don't understand how that solar is everything.

与太阳相比，所有其他能源都像是原始人把一些树枝扔进火里。

So everything compared to the sun, all other energy sources are like cavemen throwing some twigs into a fire.

是的。

Yeah.

太阳占了太阳系总质量的99.8%以上。

So the sun is over 99.8% of all mass in the solar system.

大约只占0.1%的质量。

Is around 0.1% of the mass.

即使你烧掉木星，太阳产生的能量仍然高达100%左右。

So even if you burnt Jupiter, the energy produced by the sun was still around up to a 100%.

是的。

Yeah.

然后如果你把另外三个木星传送到我们的太阳系并也烧掉它们，

And then if you teleported three more Jupiters into our solar system and burnt them too,

它仍然加起来是百分之百。

it's still round up.

即使这样，太阳的能量仍然占到百分之百。

It's still round the sun still rounds up to a 100% of energy.

你对核聚变感兴趣吗？

Any interest in fusion?

我的意思是，比如，

I mean, like,

比如核聚变，

like, fusion

在行星上。

on a planet.

在地球上的核聚变。

Fusion on Earth.

你知道吗？

You know what?

你永远猜不到太阳是如何工作的。

You know know You You're never gonna guess how the sun works.

巨大的燃煤电厂。

Giant coal plants.

我的意思是，我们有一个巨大的免费核聚变反应堆，每天都会展示出来。

It is I mean, we have a giant free fusion reactor that shows Yes, up every

距我们九千三百万英里远。

93,000,000 miles away.

我们去制造小型核聚变反应堆简直荒谬。

It's farcical for us to create a little fusion reactors.

我的意思是，这就像在南极洲造一个小小的制冰机。

I mean, that would be like, you know, having a tiny ice cube maker in the Antarctic.

然后说：嘿，看，我们造出冰了。

And say, hey, look, we made ice.

我只想说，恭喜啊。

I'm like, congratulations.

甚至连该死的南极洲都这样。

Even the fucking Antarctic.

所以

So

我完全同意你的观点。

totally with you on this.

就像有三公里高的冰川就在你旁边。

It's like it's like three kilometer high glaciers right next to you.

是啊。

Yeah.

但如果

But if

你把问题限定在孟菲斯的时间线上，也就是孟菲斯数据中心从一吉瓦到十吉瓦的这段时间。

you just narrow the question to the Memphis timeline, so Memphis data center timeline between a gigawatt and 10 gigawatt.

你不可能从孟菲斯抽取出10吉瓦的电力。

You're not gonna pull 10 gigawatts out of Memphis.

也许你能。

Maybe you are.

两三个吧。

Two or three.

两三个？

Two or three?

在那和下一个什么之间，仍然存在差距。

There's still a gap between there and the next whatever.

只是创伤而已。

Just trauma.

所以，而且它们还不在太空中，至少目前还不是。

So and and they're not in space So yet at that

我们在这里谈的能源，还只是童话世界里的东西。

we're we're still in Toyland here for On energy.

你说玩具国？

Toyland, you say?

玩具国。

Toyland.

玩具国。

Toyland.

10吉瓦。

10 gigawatts.

令人惊讶的是，就在门外就有一个100兆瓦的能源，而且规模巨大。

You know what's amazing is there's a 100 megawatts right outside the door here and it's massive.

是的。

Yeah.

它非常庞大。

It's it's enormous.

是的。

Yeah.

而且它消耗更多的能量

And it uses more energy

想象一下，那是它的100倍。

It's imagine a 100 times that.

所有这些生产线加起来消耗的能量都比不上它。

Than everything, all these manufacturing lines combined use less energy than that.

我认为但我们说的是那一个。

I think But we're talking about that one.

吉加

Giga

Cortex Giga 是全球第三大的训练集群。

Cortex Giga was the third largest training cluster in the world.

是的。

Yeah.

用于连贯的训练。

For doing coherent training.

你落后了。

You're falling behind.

嗯，正在建设中的Cortex二号。

Well, Cortex two that's being built out.

那将是一个半吉瓦的规模，预计明年年中投入运营。

That'll be half a gigawatt and operational middle of next year.

大家可能不知道，但我有一个非凡的研究团队。

Everybody, you may not know this, but I've done an incredible research team.

每周我和我的研究团队都会研究影响世界的宏观趋势。

And every week myself and my research team study the meta trends that are impacting the world.

主题包括计算、传感器、网络、人工智能、机器人、3D打印和合成生物学。

Topics like computation, sensors, networks, AI, robotics, three d printing, synthetic biology.

我每周发布的这些宏观趋势报告，能让你比其他人提前十年看到未来。

And these meta trend reports I put out once a week enable you to see the future ten years ahead of anybody else.

如果你想每周获取《宏观趋势》通讯，请访问diamandis.com/metatrends。

If you'd like to get access to the MetaTrends newsletter every week, go to diamandis.com/metatrends.

那就是diamandis.com/metatrends。

That's diamandis.com/metatrends.

所以回到戴夫所说的话，在未来五年，你们在能源领域会扩大哪些方面？

So going back to what Dave is saying, over the next five years, what are you scaling on energy front?

你是说五年时间很长吗？

Do you mean Five years is a long time.

我是说能源，中国已经做得非常出色了。

I mean, energy I mean, China has done an incredible job.

是的。

Yeah.

对吧？

Right?

我的意思是，他们把我们甩在了后面。

I mean, it's running circles around us.

中国在太阳能方面做得非常出色。

China has done an incredible job on solar.

是的。

Yeah.

太惊人了。

It's amazing.

所以我认为中国的太阳能年生产能力约为1500吉瓦。

So I I believe China's production capacity is around 1,500 gigawatts per year of solar.

是的。

Yeah.

他们在过去一年中安装了500太瓦。

They put in 500 terawatts in the last year.

是的。

Yeah.

太瓦时，太瓦时。

Terawatt terawatt hours.

是的。

Yeah.

太瓦时。

Terawatt hours.

就像是

It was like

五千亿千瓦时，要说得具体一点。

five hundred five hundred terawatt hours to be very specific.

是的。

Yeah.

去年，其中70%是太阳能。

In the last year, 70% of that was solar.

而且他们正在迅速扩大规模。

And they're just scaling.

你有没有想过

Do you do you imagine that

太阳能正在扩大规模。

Solar scales.

你认为美国能够做出这样的投资和承诺吗？

Do you imagine that The US could make that level of investment and commitment?

因为人们担心他们的电费上涨，而数据服务器却不在我们后院。

Because people are worried about their energy bills going up with no data centers in our backyard.

我们该如何提供能源呢？我的意思是，能源等同于生活成本。

How do we provide I mean, energy is equivalent to cost of living.

它等同于健康。

It's equivalent to health.

它等同于清洁的水源。

It's equivalent to clean water.

一个国家的能源产量越高，其GDP就越高。

The higher energy production of a country, the higher its GDP.

能源很重要。

Energy is important.

那么，我们该如何实现这种规模的扩张呢？

So what do we do to scale that way?

我们在这里发展太阳能吗？

Do we do it in solar here?

我认为我们应该在美国大幅扩大太阳能规模。

I think we should scale solar substantially in The US.

特斯拉和SpaceX正在扩大太阳能应用。

Tesla and SpaceX are scaling solar.

因此，我也鼓励其他人这样做。

So, and I encourage others to do so as well.

所以

So

我的意思是，我之前已经公开说过这些了。

the I mean, I've said this stuff, you know publicly.

我看到了一条实现每年100吉瓦太空太阳能路径，也就是由太阳能驱动的AI卫星。

I do see a path to a 100 gigawatts a year of space solar sort of AI powered, solar powered AI satellites.

是的。

Yes.

所以每年100吉瓦的AI卫星。

So 100 gigawatts a year powered AI satellites.

我算过这笔账。

I did the math on that.

那相当于在8000次星舰飞行中发射50万颗星链v3，差不多每小时一次。

That's like 500,000 Starlink v threes launched over 8,000 Starship flights, like one every hour.

一整年吗？

For a year?

每年1万次飞行是一个合理的数字。

We 10,000 flights a year is is a reasonable number.

这太惊人了。

So It's amazing.

规模确实相当庞大。

It's quite the scale.

大致的时间表是怎样的？

What's the really rough timeline

因为以航空标准来看，这个数量已经很小了。

on because I mean by aircraft standards, that's a small number.

当然。

Sure.

当然。

Sure.

从...

In terms

飞行次数的角度来看。

of flights.

是的，没错。

Yeah, for sure.

是的。

Yeah.

这根本不算什么，关键看你拿它和什么比较。

That's small fry like, so you just like, it depends where you compare it to.

如果你把它和整个火箭行业相比，这是一个非常高的数字。

If you compare it to the rest of the rocket industry, it's a very high number.

是的。

Yeah.

我们谈论的是每年向轨道运送一百万吨有效载荷。

And we're talking about a million tons of payload to orbit per year.

所以，如果你每年向轨道运送一百万吨有效载荷，每吨需要100千瓦，那就是每年需要100吉瓦的太阳能驱动的AI卫星。

So if you do a million tons of payload to orbit per year with a 100 kilowatts per ton, that's a 100 gigawatts of solar powered AI satellites per year.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，有可能实现每年达到一太瓦的规模。

I mean, there's a path to get probably to a terawatt per year.

从是的。

From Yeah.

该

The

你说的是10，你想再提升一个数量级，或者说你想达到每年100太瓦。

you say like 10, you wanna go up another order of magnitude or let's say you wanna go to a 100 terawatts a year.

是的。

Yeah.

所以这显然是些疯狂的数字。

So obviously kind of nutty numbers.

然后你想在月球上制造这些AI卫星。

Then you wanna make those AI satellites on the moon.

是的。

Yes.

并使用质量驱动器。

And use a mass driver.

是的。

Yes.

杰拉德·K。

Gerard K.

奥尼尔方案。

O'Neill approach.

就像罗伯特·海因莱因那样，他是

Well, like Robert Heinlein, who is a

当然，热鱼。

hotfish Of course.

差不多。

Pretty much.

是的。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

我非常喜欢这本书。

I love that book.

是的，是的。

Yeah, yeah.

这是一种自由意志主义的天堂，

It's a sort of libertarian paradise in

列表中。

the list.

是的，

Yeah,

因为在月球上，你可以轻松地将卫星加速到逃逸速度，约为每秒2500米，而且月球没有大气层。

so because on the moon you can just accelerate the satellites into to escape velocity is around 2,500 meters per second and There's no atmosphere.

所以像质量驱动器这样的装置在月球上非常有效。

So like a mass driver works very well on the moon.

我问一下关于轨道碎片的问题？

I ask the question about orbital debris?

我的意思是，我们实际上正在围绕地球建造一个类似戴森云的群体。

I mean, we're building effectively a Dyson ish shwarm around the earth.

我们是星座？

We're Swarm?

是的。

Yeah.

星座。

Swarm.

星座。

Swarm.

星座。

Swarm.

我打算

I'm gonna

说星座。

say Swarm.

把它当午餐吃掉。

Eat it for lunch.

是

Are

你担心的是那里的过度拥挤，太阳同步轨道会很快填满。

you worried about over congestion on the that's gonna be a, the sun sync orbit's gonna fill very quickly.

我的意思是，不一定非得用太阳同步轨道。

I mean, don't have to have sun sync.

我的意思是，你可以

I mean, you can

不一定非得用，但这样最理想。

Don't have to, but it's optimal.

是的。

Yeah.

太阳同步轨道和非太阳同步轨道各有优缺点。

There's some pros and cons to sun sync or not sun sync.

我的意思是，相比直接进入中倾角轨道，比如70度左右，你的轨道衰减会快大约30%。

I mean, you're paler to orbit drops by like 30% compared to, you know, if you were just went to like mid inclination, like 70 degrees or something like that.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，我们现在需要一个轨道碎片清理机制吗？

I mean, do we need an orbital debris x rise at this point?

我们需要某种方式将已定义的卫星带离轨道。

We need some way to get the satellites, defined satellites down.

我们是否应该制定法规，要求它们自行离轨？

Do we pass rules that require them to de orbit on their own?

是的。

Yeah.

当你能将一百万吨的卫星送入轨道时，你也完全可以开始把卫星带下来了。

At the point in which you can put a million tons of satellites into orbit, you can also pretty start bringing down satellites too.

是的。

Yeah.

或者至少把它们收集到一个已知的固定位置。

Or at least collecting them into a known, into a fixed location.

这样它们就不会到处都是了。

So they're not like all over the place.

是的。

Yeah.

然后你可以重复使用。是的。

Then you can reuse Yeah.

我们就说，资源水平会高到我相信，以我们所讨论的智能水平，这个问题将被解决。

Let's just say that we'll have the resource level will be so high that I believe this will be a solved problem given the amount of intelligence we're talking about here.

就像我们非常感兴趣的那种能够自我保存的智能。

Like the intelligence we're quite interested in preserving itself.

是的，这是真的。

Yes, that's true.

哦，有意思。

Oh, interesting.

是的。

Yeah.

很好的动力。

Good motivation.

是的。

Yeah.

有趣。

Interesting.

数据

The data

数据中心不会在近地轨道上，对吧？

centers will not be in low Earth orbit, right?

它们会处在更高的位置，始终沐浴在阳光下。

They'll be much higher constantly in the sun.

我猜它们不会陷入交通拥堵吧。

They're not gonna be in the traffic jam, I assume.

嗯，可以做到

Well, can get

你不必非要达到持续日照的状态。

to, you know, you don't have to get to constant sunlight.

你可以在大约1200公里的同步轨道上，获得持续的阳光。

You could be around twelve hundred kilometers on synchronous will give you constant sunlight.

嗯。

Mhmm.

但你可以把它们部署在多个轨道上。

But you could you could place them in multiple orbits.

是的。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

不。

No.

我认为，如果有一个清理太空的X大奖，那问题肯定只存在于低轨道的碎片上。

I think if there's an X prize for cleaning up, it's gotta be, there's only gonna be clutter in lower orbit.

我是说，碎片来自

I mean debris from

任何在大约七百或八百公里以下的物体，大气都会通过空气阻力将其拉回。

Anything that's, if it's a, you know, below around seven or 800 kilometers, the atmosphere will, atmospheric drag will bring it back.

是的。

Yeah.

所以对于星链来说，尽可能低有两个好处：你知道，波束会更集中，你基本上能减少延迟，而且如果你更靠近地球，波束也会更小。

So like for Starlink, there's a dual benefit of being like as low as possible because know, beams are tighter, you're basically that you have less latency and your beams are smaller if you're closer to the earth.

所以星链三号将在大约三百三十到三百五十公里的高度上运行，

So like Solink three will be around three thirty to three fifty kilometers,

这

which

会有很大的空气阻力。

is quite a lot of drag.

所以它基本上需要持续推进以

So it's basically constantly thrusting to

我还记得你提出Sterling的时候，整个行业都以为不可能。

I still remember when you proposed Sterling and everybody else in the industry was like, no way.

不可能。

No way.

他拿不到频谱。

He's not gonna get the spectrum.

他做不到这件事。

He's not gonna be able to do this.

嗯。

Yeah.

结果还真成了。

It's kinda worked.

嗯。

Yeah.

Stalin团队做得非常出色。

The Stalin team has done an incredible job.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，我们实际上已经用激光链路在太空中重建了互联网。

I mean, we've basically rebuilt the internet in space with with the laser links.

嗯。

Mhmm.

那里有九千颗卫星。

So there's 9,000 satellites up there

你觉得政府能应对你想发射的大量卫星的许可问题吗？

Do right you think the government's gonna be able to handle the kind of licensing of the volume of satellites that you wanna put up?

我的意思是，会不会有阻力，因为中国也会发射自己的卫星星座。

I mean, will there be pushback because, you know, China's gonna put up their own constellations.

欧洲，谁知道欧洲会不会有所行动。

Europe, who knows whether Europe will ever step up.

他们不会的。

They won't.

那是什么？

What's that?

他们不会。

They won't.

不会。

No.

而且可能吧。

And there's probably Yeah.

他们所做的任何事都不太可能取得成功。

Nothing that nothing they're doing has success in the set of possible outcomes.

是的。

Yeah.

我刚从

I just got

罗马回来。

back from Rome.

不想碰那个栏杆。

Don't want to touch that railing.

成功不在可能的结果集合之中。

Success is not on the set of possible outcomes.

图表显示

The chart shows

美国与欧洲十亿美元初创公司的数量。

the number of billion dollar startups in The US versus Europe.

你看过那个图表吗？

Have you seen that graphically?

天啊。

Oh my god.

太疯狂了。

It's crazy.

是的。

Yeah.

还有数据中心。

And data centers too.

六个月前没人谈论过轨道数据中心。

No one was talking about orbital data centers six months ago.

是的。

Yeah.

没人。

Nobody.

然后突然之间

And then all of a sudden

孙达尔已经在关注了。

Sundar's on it.

你一提出来，它就成了热门新事物。

You're out with it and It's the hot new thing.

确实是。

It is.

发生了什么，使得每个公司现在都在谈论轨道数据中心？

What happened that every company is now talking about orbital data centers?

我想是在X平台上爆红了。

I guess it went viral on X.

确实如此。

It did.

我不知道。

I don't know.

是每个公司都在谈论吗

Is is every company talking about

哦，是的。

Oh, yeah.

每个人都拥有自己的轨道数据中心。

Everybody's got their own orbital data centers.

当然。

For sure.

我向彼得建议，你更新了发射成本的计算数据，随着新的计算，这很快就会达到一个临界点。

And I I was suggesting to Peter that you updated the math on launch costs and that it's a tipping point very quickly with the updated math.

但星舰的成本，我不知道你具体指的是什么。

But Starship's been the cost for I don't know what you hold.

这是一个

It's a

每公斤100美元，每公斤10美元。

$100 per kilogram, dollars 10 per kilogram.

你的星舰是多少成本？

What do you have Starship?

通过

By the

顺便说一句，可能是马斯克说了这句话，但直到现在才有人相信。

way, it's possible that Elon said that and nobody believed it until now.

不。

No.

你可以回去看看我以前在推特上的内容。

You can go back and look at my what even back when it was Twitter.

那是我过去的推文。

They're my old tweets.

我很多年前就说过这些话。

I said these things many years ago.

每公斤100美元还是10美元？

$100 or $10 a kilogram?

是的，我知道，我还说过我们每年要向轨道运送一百万吨。

Yeah, know and I said this is we're gonna do a million tons a year to orbit.

是的。

Yeah.

我们必须降低成本。

And we've got to get the cost down.

是的。

Yeah.

远低于每公斤100美元。

Well below a $100 a kilogram.

所以这将把数据中心移到轨道上。

So that's gonna move the data centers to orbit.

我们会的。

And we will.

正如我所说，你可以基本算一笔账：如果你拥有一枚完全可重复使用的火箭。

It's as I can do, you can basically do the math where like if you've got a fully reusable rocket.

是的。

Yeah.

如果它像飞机一样完全且快速可重复使用，那么这是一项极其困难的事情，显而易见。

Which is fully and rapidly reusable like an aircraft, then this is an incredibly, this is a very difficult thing to do, obviously.

我认为，制造一枚完全且快速可重复使用的火箭，已经接近人类智慧的极限。

I think it's at the limit of human intelligence to create a fully and rapidly reusable rocket.

是的。

Yeah.

但这是可能的，我们正在通过星际飞船实现它。

But it is possible and we're doing it with Starshot.

这一直是航空航天行业的终极目标。

It's it's been the holy grail in the aerospace industry forever.

是的。

Yeah.

寻找那枚理想的火箭。

Quest for the holy grail rocket.

是的。

Yeah.

然后我，是的。

And then I Yeah.

差不多吧。

Pretty much.

是的。

Yeah.

确实如此。

It did.

我的意思是，现在DCX是我们最初尝试的小型项目之一，而在我刚进入航天行业时，人们谈论的全是这些。

I mean, right now, the DCX was the first little things that we're trying there, and it's been, you know, all of I mean, back when I was in the space industry, that's all everyone ever spoke about.

当猎鹰九号首次回收其第一级时，传统航天业根本没人相信猎鹰九号真的能回收，能……

And then when Falcon nine first reused its first stage, I mean, all the traditional aerospace industries did not believe that even Falcon nine could re could Yeah.

飞行并重复使用。

Fly and reuse.

你真的可以去卡纳维拉尔角亲眼看到它着陆。

Literally, you can come see it land at Cape Canaveral.

是的。

Yeah.

然后再次起飞。

And then take off again.

是的。

Yeah.

所以，我不明白你怎么会不相信自己亲眼看到的事情。

So I don't know how you would not believe a thing that you can see with your own eyes.

是啊。

Yeah.

嗯，以前你根本不可能相信能做得到。

Well, didn't believe you could The do

从那里直接跳到降低发射成本，实际上需要更多的信念。

leap from there to the launch costs actually requires more faith than that.

但我认为星舰才是发射成本的转折点。

But I think Starship is the launch cost tipping point.

而在那之前，Twitter 还没变成 X。

And that somewhere in that, before you had Twitter, it became X.

在那个时间线上的某个节点，它从推测变成了毋庸置疑。

Somewhere in that timeline, it went from speculative to no doubt.

我不确定这是一条平滑的线，还是中间有几次成功的发射，但我怀疑太空中的数据中心

And I don't know if that's a smooth line or a couple of good launches in between, but I suspect that the data centers in space

但人们

But people

直接关系到可信度

ties directly to the credibility

没有考虑轨道上的数据中心。

not thinking about orbital data centers.

他们想的是能源以及他们家乡的能源成本。

They're thinking about energy and the cost of energy here on here in their hometown.

而且那里有很多末日论的讨论。

And sort of the the there's a lot of doomer conversations out there.

数据中心会推高，你知道的，消费者价格指数。

The data centers are gonna drive, you know, the CPI up.

他们并不完全错误。

They're not entirely wrong.

好吧。

Okay.

那么，对于地球上其余的人类或非AI群体来说，能源解决方案是什么？

So what is so what is the what's the energy solution here on Earth for the rest of humanity or the the non data the non AIs?

哦，除了数据中心的能源使用之外，还有其他用途。

Oh, there's something other than data center use uses of energy.

好的。

Okay.

有意思。

Interesting.

这很复杂。

That's complex.

实际上，增加美国或任何国家每年能源产出的最佳方式是电池。

Well, the the the best way to actually increase the energy output per year of The United States or any country is batteries.

当然。

So the Sure.

美国的峰值电力输出约为1.1太瓦，但平均电力消耗只有0.5太瓦。

Peak power output of the of The US is around 1.1 terawatts, but the average power usage is only half a terawatt.

是的。

Yeah.

所以，如果你只是缓冲能源，晚上给电池充电，白天放电，在不增加资本支出、不新建发电厂的情况下，就能将美国的能源吞吐量翻倍。

So if you just buffer the energy, so charge up the batteries at night, discharge during the day, Without incremental capital expenditure, capital expenditures, without building new power plants, can double the energy throughput of The US.

通过电池，每年的能源产出可以翻倍。

The energy output per year can double with batteries.

我们目前有在研发这些电池吗？

Do we have those batteries in development?

是的。

Yeah.

特斯拉在生产这些电池。

Tesla makes them.

好的。

Okay.

所以你觉得

So you think

听起来像是特斯拉公司。

It sounds like a Tesla company.

特斯拉电池组。

Tesla battery packs.

你怎么看？

What do you think?

你觉得呢？

What do think?

我确实曾经坐下来向你展示过这个东西。

I literally have I when I sat you and presented the thing.

是的。

Yeah.

那就是确凿的证据。

That's that's the dead giveaway.

所以我甚至去参观过巨型电池包的安装现场，你知道的，还有这个

So I've even went to installations of the mega packs, you know, and this

那为什么人们不

So why don't people

做，这在互联网上。

do It's on the Internet.

是的。

Yeah.

所以你觉得他们

So is do you think They

而且顺便说一下，中国好像什么都听我的，然后照着做。

are and China by the way is like, it seems like China listens to everything I say and does it basically.

或者至少，他们只是独立地在做。

Or at least, or they're just doing it independently.

我不知道，但他们确实在生产巨大的电池组，真的非常巨大的电池产量。

I don't know, but they're certainly making massive battery packs like really massive battery pack output.

你知道的，生产大量的电动汽车。

You know, making vast numbers of electric cars.

是的。

Yeah.

大量的太阳能。

Vast amounts of solar.

我不知道。

I don't know.

这些都是我曾经说过我们应该在这里做的事情。

These are all things I said, you know, we should do here.

基础。

Fundamentals.

当然。

Sure.

当我驾驶飞机飞越圣莫尼卡和洛杉矶时，低头一看，发现根本没有屋顶安装太阳能板。

When I fly over Santa Monica and LA, when I'm piloting and I look down, they're like zero roofs have solar on them.

完全没有屋顶安装。

Zero roofs.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，不一定非得把它们装在屋顶上。

I mean It's not essential to have them on a roof.

好的。

Okay.

但屋顶是个安装它们的便利地方。

But it's a convenient place to have them.

是的。

Yes.

但屋顶的表面积有限，我不是说你不该装，但特斯拉做了一个太阳能屋顶，是唯一一个不难看的太阳能屋顶。

But the surface area of roofs is I'm not saying you shouldn't, but it's, Tesla makes a solar roof, which is the only solar roof that isn't ugly.

我们的太阳能屋顶实际上看起来很漂亮。

Our solar roof actually looks beautiful.

是的。

Yeah.

但如果你想大规模使用太阳能，你就需要更多的表面积。

But if you wanna do solar at scale, you just need more surface area.

所以我们有大片空旷的沙漠。

So we have vast empty deserts.

当然。

Sure.

在美国，比如你从洛杉矶飞往纽约，或者横跨整个国家飞行时，大部分时间往下看，都是荒凉的沙漠。

In America, like if you fly from LA to New York or just fly across country and you look down for a large portion of the time you look down, it is bleak desert.

是的。

Yes.

本质上看起来就像火星一样。

It looks like Mars essentially.

我们并不担心那里人口过剩。

We're not worried about overpopulation there.

不，我的意思是，这些酷热的沙漠里几乎连蜥蜴都活不下来，你知道吗？

No, I mean, looked, there's barely a lizard alive in these scorching deserts, you know?