埃隆的5万亿美元赌注、人类司机的终结与查马斯的市场警告 | 第242期

另一个事情是竞争。

other other thing competition.

如果我们把这种行为定性为垄断，那我们是不是也得把所有拥有MTP的人都称为垄断者？

If we label this monopolistic behavior, then don't we have to label everyone with an MTP a monopolist?

是的。

Mhmm.

是的。

Mhmm.

从市场角度问一个问题。

Just ask a question by market market

主导地位。

dominance.

如果你真的能达到那种程度，那确实如此。

If you if you would get there, then that's true.

但你说得对。

But you're right.

甚至连房地产都没选好

Doesn't even pick the real estate

TeraFab的选址还没定下来。

site yet for the the TeraFab.

他连最终地点都没确定。

He doesn't he hasn't even picked a final location.

我觉得现在就断言这种行为是垄断，还如此雄心勃勃地要建造戴森云，实在太早了。

I I think it's way too premature to declare this monopolistic behavior being so ambitious as to build the Dyson Swarms.

我们将会

We're gonna

拥有多个戴森云。

have multiple Dyson Swarms.

我同意你的看法。

I'm with I'm with you.

太棒了。

Love it.

我同意你的看法。

I'm with you.

对。

Yeah.

哎，你想啊，谷歌不会倒闭的。

Well, look, Google isn't going away.

要知道，谷歌的营收达到3000亿美元，现金流超过1000亿美元，还有自主研发的芯片和设计能力。

Know, Google has $300,000,000,000 of revenue, a 100,000,000,000 plus of cash flow, their own chips and design.

他们除了火箭之外，手头什么资源都有。

They have all everything except the rockets.

所以谷歌不会从这个位置上退出，

So Google's not gonna go away as a

而且别忘了埃里克·施密特，他正努力把相对论空间公司整合进来，这样火箭业务至少也能归入谷歌的阵营了。

Well, and don't forget Eric Schmidt Eric Schmidt is trying to bring relativity space online so that the rockets are at least part of the Google family.

哦，那个，帮我关一下，帮我把（设备）关掉

Oh, you know, I'm about me just close me close

这个。

this.

那个。

That.

还有很多，我们别忘了。

There there's Let's plenty of them out on one not forget.

这里重要的一点是，每当出现限制时，明智的做法是意识到这其实是一个巨大的机会。

One thing that's important here is every time there is a constraint, the judo move is to realize it's a massive opportunity.

因此，这又是一个资源丰富的故事。

And so, this is an abundant story once again.

与仅仅一周前人们讨论的相比，AI算力的丰富程度有了巨大提升。

This is a massive increase in abundance of AI compute beyond what anyone was speaking about just a week ago.

很高兴他专注于这件事，而不是政治。

Glad he's focused on this and less on the politics.

对。

Yes.

我加入。

I'm in.

好的。

Alright.

这是我们第二个对话故事，我很兴奋能和我的登月伙伴们一起分享。

Here is our second conversation story, one that I'm excited to have with my moonshot mates.

这关乎人类交通的未来。

It's about the future of human transportation.

你知道，机器人正在取得驾照，飞行汽车也开始升空。

You know, robots are getting their driver's licenses, flying cars are taking flight.

这里有一些数据，我想深入探讨，因为我想让每位听众都明白，这将如何影响你们的生活方式、通勤方式以及我们生活的方方面面。

Here's some of the data and I want to go deep on this because I want everyone listening to understand how this is going to impact how and where you live, how you commute, every aspect of our lives.

Waymo 已完成1.7亿英里的全自动驾驶里程，相当于200个人的一生驾驶里程，严重事故减少了92%。

So Waymo hit 170,000,000 fully autonomous miles, equivalent to 200 human lifetimes of driving, with 92% fewer serious crashes.

因此，事故率显著降低。

So a significant reduction in crashes.

目前，他们已在10个城市部署了3000辆车。

At current they've got 3,000 vehicles in 10 cities.

还是早期阶段，对吧？

Still early, right?

优步已向Rivian投资了12.5亿美元，并计划部署5万辆全自动驾驶出租车。

Uber has now invested 1 and a quarter billion dollars in Rivian with plans to deploy 50,000 fully autonomous robotaxis.

这是Waymo与人类驾驶员的对比。

Here's a look at Waymo versus human drivers.

Waymo在减少事故方面表现卓越，事故率降低了92%，虽然不一定是挽救生命。

Waymo is doing an extraordinary job of saving not necessarily lives but saving crashes minus 92%.

想想CyberCab。

Think CyberCab.

我们也在特斯拉的完全自动驾驶系统上看到了类似的数据。

We've seen incredible data like this also on full self driving from Tesla.

看看这张图片。

Check out this image.

这是Joby航空。

This is Joby Aviation.

Joby创办了这家公司。

Joby started this company.

他创办了Velocity Eleven，卖掉后用那笔钱。

It started Velocity eleven, took that money after he sold it.

他与Rob Nail和Salim合作。

He was partnered with Rob Nail, Salim.

Joby早在十多年前就创办了Joby航空，天知道为什么。

Joby started Joby Aviation, God knows, over a decade ago.

这是它在旧金山金门大桥上空飞行的画面。

And here it is flying over the Golden Gate Bridge in San Francisco.

这是一张美丽的图片。

It's a beautiful image.

这是一架eVTOL。

This is a eVTOL.

电动垂直起降飞行器。

Electric Vertical Takeoff or Landing.

这个名字说起来顺口，但听起来像在地板上打滚。

It's a name that rolls off the tongue onto the floor.

我称它们为飞行汽车，因为它们就是飞行汽车。

I'm calling them flying cars because that's what they are.

这是当前eVTOL领域正在发生的事情。

And here's what's going on in the eVTOL world.

我认为这真的很重要。

I think it's really important.

因此，Joby目前正在为其首款符合FAA标准的飞机进行测试，这意味着它正在向FAA证明自己能够反复制造出可靠的设计。

So Joby just is now in testing for its first FAA conforming aircraft meaning it's demonstrating to the FAA that it can build a reliable design over and over again.

它刚刚在金门大桥上进行了演示飞行。

It just had demonstration flights on the Golden Great Bridge.

Joby和Uber宣布了由Joby提供动力的Uber Air项目。

Joby and Uber announced Uber Air, powered by Joby.

事实上，特拉维斯离开之前，他就创建了一个叫Uber Elevate的项目，当时他们正在开展飞行汽车的早期工作。

In fact, when Travis left, was before he left, he had created something called Uber Elevate and they were doing the earliest work on flying cars.

我曾在他们的演讲中做主题发言，但Uber Elevate后来被Joby收购了，现在Joby和Uber建立了合作关系。

I keynoted their talk there but Uber Elevate got sold to Joby and now Joby and Uber have a partnership.

在美国，与Joby齐名的另一家公司叫做Archer Aviation。

The other company in The United States that is compared to Joby is called Archer Aviation.

他们有一款名为Midnight的漂亮飞机，并且是首家获得 FAA 对其 eVTOL 飞机的100项合规性认可的公司。

They have a beautiful aircraft called Midnight And they are the first company to achieve 100 FAA acceptance of its eVTOL aircraft means of compliance.

简而言之，我们等了太久，飞行汽车几乎就要来了。

Long story short, we've been waiting a long time and flying cars are almost here.

在未来十八个月内，我们将在美国看到它们开始运营。

We're going to start to see them operating in The US in the next eighteen months.

到2028年，它们将在洛杉矶大规模投入使用。

Should be here in LA in 2028 in a big way.

所以，以下是这些对话，各位。

And so here are some of the conversations, gents.

首先，人类什么时候才会被禁止开车？

First off, when is it gonna become illegal for humans to drive?

萨利姆？

Salim?

是的。

Yeah.

我

I

我觉得，你会先从城市中心开始。

think, you know, you'll start with city centers.

对吧？

Right?

然后城市中心将禁止驾驶，再逐渐向更广区域扩展。

And you'll be illegal to drive in city centers, and then it'll slowly broaden out from there.

对我来说，最令人兴奋的技术是飞行汽车，因为我经常往返机场，这正是我梦寐以求的。

I think what's I'm I'm the flying car is the most exciting technology for me personally, given that I'm commuting to airports a lot that I could ever ask for.

所以这比我原本希望的晚了十年，但终于还是发生了。

So this is this is ten years later than I wanted it, but finally, it's finally happening.

我喜欢这一点，这些并不是关于交通的故事。

What I like about this, these are not transportation stories.

这实际上是整个城市重新设计的叙事。

This is full urban redesign is what the narrative is.

是的。

Yeah.

因为本质上，你会让土地变得充裕。

Because, essentially, you make land becomes abundant.

过去土地一直很稀缺。

Now land has always been scarce.

房地产一直很稀缺。

Real estate has been scarce.

房地产变得充裕了。

Real estate becomes abundant.

如果你飞越美国，你会发现那里空无一人。

If you fly across The US, it's empty.

对吧？

Right?

我们之前讨论过多伦多和芝加哥机场之间的统计数据。

And, we've talked about the statistic just around, between Toronto and Chicago airports.

那里有上万个岛屿和湖泊。

There are 10,000 islands and lakes.

对吧？

Right?

所以我们并没有资源稀缺的问题。

So we do not have a scarcity problem.

我们面临的是移动性和可达性的问题。

We We have a mobility and accessibility problem.

因此，我对这个特定的模式感到非常兴奋。

So I think I'm super excited by this particular model.

我给自己两年时间，让我们的系统实现完全自动驾驶，赶在米兰拿到驾照之前。

I've got my two years for us to get to full autonomy before Milan gets his driver's license.

他现在14岁。

He's 14 right now.

所以我正在全力推动这场竞赛。

So I'm I'm pushing hard on this race.

主要是，他想摆脱父母的管束，这公平吧。

Mostly, he wants to get him to get away from parents, if that's fair.

所以我们拭目以待吧。

So we'll see what happens.

但你知道，你可以压缩出行时间。

But, you know, you compress travel time.

你可以重新定价房地产。

You reprice real estate.

这是一件巨大的事情。

This is such a huge thing.

我必须特别感谢乔·本，因为要构建这样一个硬件平台非常困难，更别说在长达十年的时间里，面对层出不穷的监管障碍、市场结构阻力和基础设施的阻碍还能坚持下来。

And I gotta just shout out to Joe Ben just because it's hard to build a hardware platform like this and to do it over a decade with all the inevitable regulatory and market structures against you and infrastructure against you.

这简直太了不起了。

This is like huge.

这简直就像是给患者群体颁发的诺贝尔奖。

This is like a Nobel Prize in patients here.

是的。

Yeah.

不可思议。

Incredible.

戴夫，你刚才想说什么？

Dave, you were gonna say?

电动垂直起降飞行器将会迅速发展，因为它们不像公路上的自动驾驶汽车那样有撞上房屋的风险。

Oh, the eVTOLs are gonna move very quickly because they don't run the risk of crashing into houses like self driving cars on a road do.

它们将在指定航线上实现自动驾驶。

They are gonna be autonomous on berth.

这是新东西。

That's the new thing.

电动垂直起降飞行器已经研发多年，但让它们实现自主飞行、自动驾驶并确保极高安全性的AI技术，突然间就出现了。

EVTOLs have been in the works for years, but the AI that makes them self flying, self driving, and super safe is here all of a sudden now.

没错。

True.

但最初的飞机将由飞行员驾驶。

But the first airplanes are gonna be piloted.

对吧？

Right?

会有一名飞行员和四名乘客坐在后座。

There'll be a single pilot, four passengers in the back.

目标是在垂直起降机场着陆后快速充电。

The goal is rapid recharge at the vertiports when they land, recharge.

我认为，平均飞行距离可能不到10公里。

Probably an average length of flight of under 10 kilometers, I think.

你知道吗，从我所在的圣莫尼卡去道奇体育场，避开10号公路。

You know, going from Santa Monica where I am to the Dodger Stadium and avoiding the 10.

但只要有足够的数据和足够的演示，自动驾驶就会实现。

But autonomy will come with enough data and enough demonstrations.

等等，为什么它们不能从一开始就完全自动驾驶呢？

Wait, why won't they fully autonomous from the get go?

我的意思是，它

I mean, it's

有联邦航空管理局。

there's a FAA.

联邦航空管理局。

FAA.

联邦航空管理局不高兴，直到你不高兴。

The FAA is not happy until you're not happy.

是的。

Yeah.

正是如此。

That's exactly it.

这些车辆的制造希望立即开始。

The the manufacturing of these wants to happen right away.

目前，汽车的AI指挥与控制系统正在开发中，但尚未针对eVTOL进行。

And the AI command and control is being worked on for the car, not for the eVTOL yet.

在我看来，会有一段非常短暂的时间，大约两年左右。

So there'll be a couple of year, very short period of time, in my opinion, two years or so.

因为在中东，他们已经在使用自动驾驶和飞行的版本了。

Because, you know, in The Middle East, they're already doing the self driving, self flying version of this.

所以人们能乘坐这些飞行器的时间窗口应该会非常短。

So should be very short window where people get to fly these.

不过，关键问题是：人类什么时候会不再被允许驾驶？

The bullet here, though, is when does it become illegal for humans to drive?

我认为这种情况也会很快发生。

I think that's gonna happen very quickly as well.

这与室内吸烟或酒后驾驶非常相似，当大量选民意识到‘你的糟糕驾驶正在危及我的孩子’时，就会达到一个临界点。

Very similar to indoor smoking or drunk driving, there's a tipping point where a lot of voters say, wait, you're putting my children at risk with your crappy driving.

这太荒谬了。

That's ridiculous.

我们这里有数据和证据表明，自动驾驶比人类驾驶安全90%，很快将达到95%、97%的安全性。

We've got data and proof here that the self driving is 90% safer, soon to be 95, 97 safer.

车祸带来的人员伤亡是难以置信、令人震惊的。

And the human tragedy that comes from car crashes is unbelievable, shocking.

所以是的，

And so Yeah,

对于五岁以下的孩子来说，这是导致死亡的首要原因。

for under five year old kids, it's the number one cause of death.

是的。

Yeah.

都是意外，没错。

It's accidents, yeah.

哦，这对家庭来说也是毁灭性的。

Oh, and it's devastating to families too.

只是完全处于

Was just absolutely At in

在发达国家，是的。

the first world, yeah.

大概三到五年后，会有一场电视广告运动，充斥着大量触目惊心的画面，然后会出现大规模的投票，人们会认为在公共道路上开车是不可想象的。

Well, there'll a TV ad campaign probably three, four, five years from now with lots of ugly images in it, and then there'll be massive amounts of voting, and then people will say it's inconceivable that you would drive on a public road.

这是不人道的。

That's inhumane.

去测试赛道上开吧。

Go drive on a test track.

那没问题。

That's fine.

也许，你知道的，在一些乡村道路上。

Maybe, you know, some country roads.

这没问题。

That's fine.

但绝对不行。

But but no way.

别让我的孩子冒险。

Don't put my children at risk.

所以我认为，一旦我们能制造出这些汽车，这种情况就会很快出现。

So I think that's gonna come as soon as we have the manufacturing for the cars themselves.

但我认为会让它推迟的，纯粹是芯片短缺的问题。

But I think the thing that would make it later is purely the shortage of chips.

技术和需求都会在芯片到位之前就已成熟。

Like the technology will be there, and the demand will be there long before the chips are there.

如果你是一名工程师，想解锁这个机会，就去研究如何用更少的硅材料实现更强的计算能力，专为这个应用场景优化，你立刻就能成为亿万富翁。

If you want to unlock this as an engineer, figure out how to do more compute with less silicon for this exact use case, and you'll be an instant billionaire.

亚历克斯，你怎么看？

Alex, your thoughts?

我喜欢这个形式，彼得。

I like this format, Peter.

这就像一次内部问答环节，所以我打算对这些问题进行快速轮询。

This is like an internal AMA, so I'm going to try for a lightning round on all of these.

哦，这难道不给我们其他人留点空间吗？

Oh, what point does it some room for leave some room for the rest of us.

我们一个一个来。

Let's take it one at a time.

一个一个来。

One at a time.

在什么情况下，人类驾驶会变得非法？

At what point does it become illegal for humans to drive?

我认为永远不会。

I think never.

我认为我们只是会重新定义驾驶，使其代表越来越高的抽象层次。

I I think we'll simply redefine driving to represent higher and higher levels of abstraction.

所以现在有了FSD 14，你告诉它你想去哪里。

So right now with, like, FSD 14, you tell it where you want.

如果你运行的是最新版本，你可以和GROC对话，并在途中进行细微的方向调整。

And if if you're running the most recent subversion, you can have a conversation with GROC, and you can do minute steers along the way.

我认为这个概念会不断优化，使得驾驶被重新定义为足够抽象的形式，从而始终保障行人的安全。

I think that notion will get refined such that driving gets redefined to be sufficiently abstract that it's always safe for pedestrians.

始终是人类在AI驾驶系统的循环中参与控制。

It's always the human on the loop of the AI driver.

因此，这本质上是一种人机混合系统，兼具机器的安全性，同时让人类感觉他们仍然掌控着方向盘。

So it's effectively a human machine hybrid, if you will, that has the safety of the machine but makes the human feel like they're in the driver's seat still.

我之前在Dara与Salim和我同台时就说过，未来会有一种自动驾驶版本，你可以尽情加速和激烈驾驶，而汽车会自行了解自己的极限。

I said I said this with when Dara was on stage with Salim and myself, I said there's a version in the future of self driving where you're driving and you can push the car as fast and as hard as you want and the car knows its own limits.

它知道轮胎的抓地力。

It knows the traction of its tires.

它了解路面状况，并会阻止你做出愚蠢的行为。

It knows the road surface and it prevents you from doing something stupid.

但你99%的时间都在掌控它，而在那1%你即将做出可能毁掉自己、他人或车辆的举动时，它会阻止你。

But you're in control of it 99% of the time, but the 1% where you're about to do something that will destroy you, a person or the car, it stops you.

没错。

Exactly.

我觉得这个

I feel like the

油门踏板的未来根本不是油门踏板。

future of the accelerator pedal isn't the accelerator pedal.

如果你使用FSD，那就是把驾驶模式调到《疯狂的麦克斯》级别。

It's if you use FSD, it's turning the driving mode up to Mad Max.

这某种程度上是一种抽象。

That's sort of like an abstraction

我用的全是疯狂模式，但它还是不够快。

of That's that's all I use is mad max, and it still doesn't go fast enough.

我一点都不惊讶。

I'm not surprised.

以前有个广告说：朋友不会让朋友酒后驾车。

There used to be an ad says friends don't let friends drive drunk.

所以你只需要保留这个广告，去掉‘酒后’这部分，改成‘朋友不会让朋友开车’，就这么简单。

And so you can just keep that ad and drop off the drunk part and go friends don't let friends drive, period.

所以所有的宣传信息都已经有了。

So all the all the messaging is there.

好的。

Alright.

那么，AWG，你能不能先来回答第二个问题？

So so, AWG, why don't you why don't you kick us off on question two here?

好的。

Okay.

第二个问题。

Question two.

优步与Waymo以及其他多家公司合作，CyberCab还能竞争得过吗？

With Uber partnering with Waymo and a bunch of other names, will the CyberCab be able to compete?

我想我们这里说的是竞争。

I think we mean compete here.

是的。

Yes.

当然。

Of course.

这将是一个非常竞争激烈的市场。

It's gonna be very competitive market.

总之。

Period.

对。

Yep.

我喜欢这一点，因为它正推动我们走向富足。

And I love the fact that this is driving us towards abundance.

对吧？

Right?

这正推动我们走向UHI。

This is driving us towards UHI.

如果你的城市里有十几家公司提供自动驾驶服务，它们将围绕服务质量与价格展开竞争，最终把价格压到最低水平。

If you've got a dozen companies delivering autonomous vehicle services in your city, they're going to be competing against quality of service and price, and just bringing the price down to a minimum amount.

关于CyberCab，有趣的一点是，它的定价可能在3万美元左右，这正是埃隆大致公布的数字。

Now, of the things that's interesting about CyberCab is that that can be priced at probably 30 ks is what roughly what Elon's announced.

它将让人们有能力购买它。

And it's going to allow people to buy it.

所以，我的一个目标是，我能不能在这里的圣莫尼卡买下25辆或50辆，自己拥有它们，同时让它们外出运营，为我以及我的CyberCabs创造收入？

So, one of my goals is can I buy you know, 25 or 50 of them here in Santa Monica and own them, but have them going out and and basically generating revenue for me and for my my CyberCabs?

我相信到那时，它们会具备某种程度的主体性，亚历克斯。

I'm sure they'll have some level of of personhood by then, Alex.

显然，彼得，我从来没想过你的下一份工作会是当出租车司机，但奇点总会制造出奇怪的组合。

Obviously, I I I I never would have guessed, Peter, that that your next gig would be as a cabbie, but the Singularity makes for strange bedfellows.

车队所有者。

Fleet owner.

车队所有者。

Fleet owner.

我是萨利姆，有什么想法吗？

I'm Salim, any any thoughts?

是的，请说。

Yeah, please.

当我看到这一点时，对我影响最大的是汽车市场结构的彻底崩溃。

The big the big impact for me when I see this is the complete collapse in the market structure of cars.

如今，我们每年生产近一亿辆新车，而这些车94%的时间都处于闲置状态。

Today, we make close to 100,000,000 new cars a year, and they sit empty 94% of the time.

因此，即使仅将利用率降低一半，也会立即导致汽车行业的半数需求消失。

So even if you drop that by 50% utility, basically collapse the need for half the car industry instantly.

而且这些汽车的使用寿命很长。

And these cars maintain for a long time.

它们的使用寿命应该接近无限。

The lifetime should be near infinite.

我的2017款特斯拉应该能跑一百万英里。

My Tesla Model twenty seventeen should it'll go a million miles.

对吧？

Right?

这辆车没有任何问题。

There's nothing wrong with that car.

这将彻底改变汽车维修、保养行业的本质，整个行业将从底层开始重组。

So this is gonna completely change the nature of car services, car maintenance people, like the complete industry gets reshuffled from the bottom up.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

不过，萨利姆，你也想想这会带来什么影响。

Well, think about the implications of that too, Salim.

现在，你从SFO打Uber到旧金山，费用大约200美元，或者 whatever the hell it is，几乎全是司机的成本。

Right now, you take an Uber from SFO to San Fran for, like, $200 or whatever the hell it is, it's almost all driver costs.

所以哪怕还没把所需的汽车数量按比例缩减，我记得之前的预估是减到五分之一。

So even before you shrink the number of required cars by a factor, I think the estimate was five x.

那些成本节约都还没算进去呢。

It'd be before that savings.

难不成是要减到十分之一？

Is it 10 x?

而原本司机成本就占了大头，这下再把司机从整个流程里剔除出去。

So then then but the driver's already the majority, so you take the driver out of the loop.

那这段行程的成本应该会降低，你懂的，至少降到原来的十分之一，因为车辆成本降到了十分之一，而且原本司机的费用就比车辆成本还要高。

So the cost of that ride should go down, you know, at least 10 x because the car's coming down 10 x, and the and the driver is more than the car anyway.

我记得我看到的数据是每英里10到30美分之间，平均大概20美分。

Think the number I've seen is 20 between 10 and 30¢ a mile.

对。

Yeah.

我看到的说法是，这比自己拥有一辆车要便宜四到五倍。

The the I've seen it as four to five fold cheaper than owning a car.

我想问的下一个问题，并分享我的观点，我认为这对我们的听众来说是最重要的之一。

The next question I want to ask and offer my points of view is I think one of the most important one for our listeners.

这将对您的房地产资产产生深远影响。

This is going to have a profound impact on your real estate holdings.

您住在哪儿？

Where you live?

您如何处置您的房地产？

What you do with your real estate?

如果我们拥有自动驾驶汽车，并且将道路上的车辆数量减少到十分之一，我们就这么假设吧。

So, if we have autonomous vehicles, and we've reduced the number of vehicles on the road by 10x, let's call it that.

这些车辆不需要停车。

And these vehicles don't need to park.

我目前的想法是：我和家人吃完早餐后，走向前门，我的AI系统知道我正在移动并要开门，它知道我要去哪里，已经为我预订了一辆自动驾驶汽车，也就是我所说的‘自动魔法’服务。

Again, my current version of this is I get up from the breakfast table with my family, I walk towards the front door, my AI knows that I'm moving to open the front door, it knows where I'm going, it's ordered an autonomous vehicle, what I call automagically for me.

我根本不需要开口要求。

I haven't had to ask.

突然间，我们家这里原本有个三车位的车库。

And so all of a sudden, you know, we had in our home here, we had a three car garage.

我们已经把其中一个车库改成了额外的卧室。

We already converted one of those garages into an extra bedroom.

另外两个车库现在基本变成了储物空间，比如装修成健身房之类的。

The other two garages have become effectively storage, you know, build out, you know, probably a workout gym and so forth.

我认为，家里私人车库这个概念将会消失。

I think the idea of a garage, a personal garage in your home goes away.

所以，开始想想你打算怎么利用你的车库空间吧？

So, start thinking about what are you gonna do with your garage space?

你打算把它改成什么？

What are you gonna make it into?

因为你不会再拥有汽车了。

Because you're not gonna own a car.

你可能需要使用汽车，但大多数时候，你真的喜欢开车吗？

You might want access to a car, but most of the time, do you really like driving?

我的意思是，当你乘坐优步时，你会让司机下车，自己来开车吗？

I mean, when you get into an Uber, do you ask the Uber driver to get out and let you drive?

没错。

So right.

而且，这部分对话对我们所有听众来说都极具可操作性。

And you know, this part of the conversation is incredibly actionable for all of our listeners.

这虽然达不到亚历克斯那种明天就能改变世界级别的影响力，但对几乎所有听众来说都非常重要。

That doesn't rise to Alex's level of, you know, like change the world tomorrow, but it really matters to almost everyone who listens.

萨利姆和彼得说的都完全正确。

Everything Salim said and Peter said is dead right.

如果你年轻、有工作、住在城市里——你们中有60%的人是这样——你可能不需要在城市里买房，继续租房，而是寻找一个未来能成为你第二居所的地方，那里风景优美、交通不便，却会变得极其抢手。

If you're young and you've got a job and you're living in a city, which is 60% of you, you might not want to buy in the city, keep renting, and look for something that becomes your second home later in life that's in a beautiful spot, that's a little harder to get to, that is gonna be incredibly coveted.

想象一下，到2034年或2036年，财富增长了十倍，而这个地方是任何理智的人都会想要的。

Imagine a world where there's 10x more wealth, about 2034, 2036, and this is a spot that anyone in their right mind would want.

而且，如果我妻子在听的话，赶紧把这周末启动的交易搞定吧，哪怕得多花点钱。

And actually, if my wife is listening, close that transaction that you kicked off this weekend, even if you have to pay a little more.

但没错，这就是你想要的生活规划，因为便利性不仅仅指你能到达那里，还包括物流配送，比如你的星巴克或唐恩都乐会用无人机送货。

But yeah, that's the life plan you want, because accessibility, not just getting to it, but also delivering things to it, like, you know, your Starbucks or Dunkin' Donuts is gonna come by drone.

没错。

Absolutely.

所以这就

So that

改变了你想要的东西。

changes what you want.

好好想想。

Think about it.

而且，你知道的，我们国家虽然很大，就像萨利姆说的，但真正绝佳的地点却很有限。

And there aren't, you know, we have a huge country, like Salim said, but the really great spots are limited.

所以好好做内心探索，寻找那个地方。

So really do your soul searching and look for that thing.

我不会在城市里的机场附近买房。

I don't buy near an airport in a city.

岛屿房地产将变得更容易获取，价值可能会提升十倍、百倍。

Island real estate is gonna become, you know, 10x, 100x more accessible that will drive the value up.

在洛杉矶市中心，我记得那个数字不太清楚。

And in a Downtown LA, you know, it's like, I don't remember the figure.

差不多有30%的路面被用作停车场。

It's like 30% of the blacktop is parking.

所有这些空间都将被释放出来。

All of that gets released

达到60%。

to 60%.

是的，洛杉矶有大约60%的土地面积被用作停车场。

Become Yeah, like 60% of the land area's parking spots in Los Angeles.

这个数字太惊人了。

Crazy number.

这太疯狂了。

That's insane.

那些地方都会改造成花园。

Well, becomes that becomes gardens.

会变成绿地。

It becomes greenland.

变成公园。

It becomes parks.

这太不可思议了。

That's incredible.

还有

And

想想我们在体育场停车场浪费的那些难以置信的空间，对吧？

think of the unbelievable space we use in stadium parking lots, right?

好几英亩、好几英亩的土地都闲置着。

Acres and acres and acres of frozen stuff.

所以我们得重新规划车尾聚会还有其他所有活动的安排了。

So we'll have to rethink, know, tailgating and everything.

这里有大量的潜在机会，如果你能提前思考如何利用这些空间的话。

There's so much available, you know, business opportunity here if you can think ahead of what you will do with that.

如果你从事停车场业务，你也得提前做好规划。

And if you're in the parking garage business, you gotta think ahead as well.

是的。

Yeah.

如果可以的话，我想再提几个第二、第三层次的影响。

Couple of other second, third order implications if I may.

我的意思是，是的。

Mean, so Yes.

我们已经谈到了一些更明显的方面，比如停车场等需要重新规划用途。

We've already touched on, I I think the more obvious ones, parking garages, etcetera, need to be reprogrammed for other purposes.

另一个我认为近乎陈词滥调的推论是，郊区的重新分布。

Another, I I think, borderline cliche implication of full autonomy everywhere is the respread of suburbia.

如果自动驾驶汽车能带你去任何地方，你为什么还要在城市中心投入大量资金购置房地产呢？甚至可能根本不需要城市中心了。

Why invest so much in urban center real estate if you can be effectively connected to an urban center or even not even need an urban center if AVs take you everywhere.

基本上，从任何地方到任何地方的虚拟地铁。

Basically, a virtual subway from from anywhere to anywhere.

所以，重新郊区化，如果你愿意这么说的话，至少在像美国这样人口密度相对较低的国家。

So re suburbanization, if you will, at least in relatively low population density countries like The US.

我认为这些都是一些老生常谈的推论。

I think these are pretty cliche implications.

在我看来，一个不那么老生常谈的思路是：如果我们把这一趋势完全推演到极致会怎样？

A less cliche to implement in my mind is what if we just take this trend and extrapolate it fully to completion?

会发生什么？

What happens?

我认为未来会是这样的。

I think there's a future.

我曾发起过一个倡议，鼓励初创企业思考：为什么不直接制造自动驾驶的温尼贝戈房车呢？也就是把整个办公楼变成可自主行驶的车辆。

I I put out a request for startups around this idea of why not just create autonomous Winnebago's, the the equivalent of having entire office buildings that are themselves autonomous vehicles.

人们完全可以想象住在一辆自动驾驶的车辆里。

One could imagine living in an autonomous vehicle.

这都是社交网络的一部分。

It's all part of a social network.

当你需要与某人进行面对面会议时，你的两辆自动驾驶汽车会作为社交网络的一部分，连接并同步你们的所有位置。

When you need to take an in person meeting with someone, your two AVs are part of the social network, and they connect and synchronize all of your locations.

所以你早上可能在波士顿，但晚上就在华盛顿特区。

So maybe you're in Boston in the morning, but you're in Washington DC in the evening.

这一切都会自动处理，以同步你的日历与自动驾驶汽车的位置，然后它变成一辆卧铺车，第二天你就在芝加哥或任何下一个目的地。

This is all handled automatically to synchronize your calendar with your AV location, and then it's a sleeper car, and then you're in Chicago or wherever the next day.

于是你就变成了这辆车。

So you become this car.

你变成了你的床，你变成了……

You become in Your bed You become

卧室车会来与你汇合。

bedroom car comes to join you.

人类将成为被路由的互联网数据包。

Humans become Internet packets that are being routed

公共自动驾驶交换系统。

the Public autonomous public switch.

车辆，是的。

Vehicle Yes.

对。

Yes.

太棒了。

Love it.

太棒了。

Love it.

太棒了。

Love it.

太棒了。

Love it.

你知道，电动垂直起降飞行器，这花了一段时间。

Know, the eVTOLs, I it's taken a while.

人们对电动垂直起降飞行器（eVTOL）仍抱有诸多疑虑。

There is still a lot of doubt people have about eVTOLs.

要知道，我们能抓住的机遇会受一个条件限制，就是这类飞行器能否实现本地降落。

You know, the opportunity we have is going to be limited by the size of these being able to land locally.

所以我们需要搭建起本土的轮辐式垂直起降机场网络。

So there needs to be sort of local hub and spoke verte ports.

也就是把这些机场都布局在驾车5分钟可达的范围内，将它们全部串联起来，而优步（Uber）的平台正是想要实现这一目标。

You know, somewhere within five minute driving and gluing these all together and that's what Uber wants to do with their platform.

到那时我坐上自动驾驶的优步，它会直接把我送到对应的eVTOL起降场，我就能搭乘eVTOL前往十几二十公里外的另一个地点，之后再换乘另一辆自动驾驶汽车。

So I hop in my autonomous Uber, it takes me without thinking to the right eVTOL site which takes me to another location 10 kilometers, 20 kilometers away and then I am in another autonomous vehicle.

亚历克斯，在这整套构想里，我唯独还缺超级高铁（Hyperloop）。

What I am missing from all of this, Alex, is Hyperloop.

对吧？

Right?

所以我其实加入了最早一批做超级高铁的公司之一。

So, I actually joined one of the first Hyperloop companies.

维珍公司参与进来了。

Virgin got involved.

我们筹集了大约一亿美元。

It was we raised probably close to $100,000,000.

虽然项目没有推进，但制造真空管道列车所涉及的材料科学，以及如今Hyperloop的优势在于实现超音速点对点城市间运输，比如洛杉矶到旧金山、洛杉矶到拉斯维加斯，这条线路肯定会很繁忙。

It did not go forward, but the material science of creating Hyperloop and of course the benefit for Hyperloop right now is effectively supersonic travel, point to point inner city to inner city, LA to San Francisco, LA to Las Vegas, that one will be busy.

最终一定要看到Hyperloop被列入这个清单。

Got to see Hyperloop on this list eventually.

你觉得哪个

Which do you think you

会先出现，

are going to

比如在纽约到洛杉矶的实际应用中？

see first, like in practice for say, New York to Los Angeles?

你觉得是Hyperloop先出现，还是火箭货运先出现，比如你登上埃隆的星舰，升空再降落？

Do you think you're gonna see Hyperloop first, or do you think you're gonna see rocket cargo first where you hop on an Elon Starship go up, go down?

你知道吗，我曾经思考并研究过点对点的火箭旅行，这真的很难。

You know, I've thought and looked at point to point rocket travel, and it's a tough it's a tough thing.

能量耗散是个问题，因为你基本上要达到轨道速度，还要在城市附近或上方再入大气层。

The energy dissipation, because you are basically going, you are going to orbital velocities and you are having to re enter over or near a city.

我想埃隆提出的版本是在海上着陆设施。

I guess the version that Elon put forward was offshore landing facilities.

没错。

That's right.

所以你是在离岸一公里的地方着陆。

So that you're, you know, a kilometer offshore.

我认为，由于埃隆在推动这项技术，而且飞行器已经存在，他们每五到三分钟就要发射一次。

I think for one reason, rocket point to point travel, because Elon's behind it, and because the vehicle exists and they're gonna be launching every point five point three minutes.

没错。

That's right.

而且，埃隆几乎也参与了超级高铁项目。

And, you know, Elon almost got involved in Hyperloop.

但正如你所说，我做不到所有事情。

But like you said, I can't do everything.

总之，我有两个

Anyway I have two

想法。

thoughts here.

简短的。

Quick ones.

是的。

Yeah.

请说。

Please.

是的。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

请说。

Please.

一个是我认为超回路列车将主要用于商业和集装箱运输，而不是载人，因为那样就不必担心G力，安全标准也可以降低。

One is I think Hyperloop will be used largely for commercial and for container loads rather than human beings because then you don't have to worry about g forces and the safety standards can be lower.

第二个是，请记住，虽然我们现在从纽约飞到迈阿密需要三个小时，但今天的飞机上这三小时比十年前要高效得多。

And the second is remember that although it takes us like three hours to fly from New York to Miami, that three hours on a plane today is way more productive than it was say ten years ago.

你可以全程上网，可以工作，所以你完全可以

You've got full internet, you can work, so you can 100

兆字节，宝贝，斯特林的。

megabytes baby on Sterling.

我们现在可以安排自己的时间，在最想做事情的时候去做。

We can schedule ourselves now to do things when we largely wanna do them.

所以我认为这也是一个巨大的机会。

So I think that's a huge opportunity also.

对于我们的听众，我很想听听你们对这种形式的反馈——我们深入探讨话题，进行对话，试图向你们传授我们如何看待运输，或者之前关于TeraFab的看法。

So for our listeners, I would love to get your feedback on this format where we're going deep on the topic and having the conversation, trying to educate you about how we think about about in this case transportation or previously TeraFab.

我们接下来的对话是关于大重组。

Our next conversation is the great reshuffling.

失业是不可避免的。

Job loss is inevitable.

唯一剩下的问题是，我们在另一端将构建什么。

The only question left is what we build on the other side.

所以，这里有一些本周发布的统计数据和文章，让我们开始思考这个问题。

So here's some of the stats and some of the articles that came out this week that have us thinking about this.

高盛表示，人工智能可能自动化美国25%的工作时间。

Goldman says AI could automate 25% of US work hours.

在我看来，这个数字似乎偏低了。

Seems like a low estimate to me.

普华永道告诉其合伙人：如果你抵制人工智能，这里就没有你的位置。

PwC told its partners, if you resist AI, you have no place here.

自己用人工智能工具，否则就离开。

AI tool yourself or get out.

G42发布了一项仅面向AI代理的职位招聘信息。

G42 posted a job listing exclusively for AI agents.

这会不会只是一种噱头？

Is this sort of a gimmick?

这是真的吗？

Is it real?

我特别喜欢这个。

And I love this one.

这个说法来自Jensen的一次发言。

And this come came from sort of a hit from Jensen.

公司现在开始追踪每位员工的AI令牌使用量。

Companies are now tracking individual employee AI token usage.

Jensen表示，如果一位年薪50万美元的工程师没有消耗至少25万个令牌，我会非常担忧。

And Jensen came out saying, if a $500,000 engineer didn't consume at least 250,000 tokens, I'd be deeply alarmed.

你知道这让我想起了什么吗？

You know what this reminds me of?

这让我想起戴比尔斯说要花三个月的薪水买一枚钻石戒指。

This reminds me of De Beers saying three months salary to buy a diamond ring.

对吧？

Right?

是不是？

Doesn't it?

令牌是永恒的，彼得。

Tokens are forever, Peter.

令牌是永恒的。

Tokens are forever.

这太棒了。

That's great.

所以，我的意思是，杰ensen literally在说，他要把全球所有工程师的总薪资砍掉一半，然后说这就是我们将要卖出的令牌数量。

So, I mean, literally Jensen is saying, he's taking the total salary, you know, of all engineers on the planet and cutting in half and saying that is how many tokens we are going to be selling.

然后Perplexity AI在法庭上胜诉，得以继续在亚马逊上运行购物代理。

And then perplexity AI won an appeal in court to continue running shopping agents on Amazon.

所以，我这里展示一张图表，然后我们来讨论一下。

So, I will show one chart here and then let's talk about it.

AI 可以自动化 25% 的所有工作。

So, AI could automate 25% of all work.

这是高盛的图表，每个柱状图代表一种不同类型的工作。

This is Goldman's chart showing each of these columns is a different type of work.

我想这里的中位数大约是 25%。

And I guess the median here is about 25%.

我们在不同地方多次看到过这种图表的不同版本。

We have seen this lots of different places in different versions of it.

但让我们切入正题。

But let's jump in.

所以，萨利姆，你接触的顾问比我和在场任何人都多。

So, Salim, you work with more consultants than I do, than anybody here does.

所以，你觉得普华永道告诉它的合伙人要适应，是吧，或者

So what do you think about this PwC telling its partners, you know, adapt Yeah, or

我觉得这样可以，但我认为这还不够。

think that's fine, but I think it doesn't go far enough.

麦肯锡的情况也一样。

And same with the McKinsey's things.

所以，当我正在完善这篇组织奇点论文时，我做的计算表明：赶紧发布。

So the calculations I've been running as I kind of get this paper, organizational Singularity paper, finalized is that Get it out.

赶紧发布。

Get it out.

给我几天时间。

Give me a couple of days.

它就会准备好供初稿审阅。

It'll be ready for like draft and review.

我们只是在做一些事情。

We're just doing some thing.

你只需要现在员工人数的20%到25%，就能运营一家典型的公司。

You'll be able to run a typical company with between 20% or 25% of the employees you have today.

因为所有工作流程都是从人到人，再到代理，再由代理之间传递，对吧？

Because all workflow goes from human to human to agent to agent, right?

现在，如果你只看执行端，可能会惊呼：天啊，80%的工作都要丢了。

Now, you could take on the doer side and go, Oh my God, 80% job loss.

但不会的，因为我们最终会创造出四到五倍更多的公司。

But no, because we'll just end up creating four or five times more companies.

而且对于大公司来说，向基于AI的工作流程过渡，所需时间会比初创公司或中型企业长得多。

And also for bigger companies, that transition to an AI based workflow is going to take much longer than for a startup or mid market.

因此，经济会有足够的时间调整——我实际上认为，就业市场几乎不会出现任何动荡。

And therefore, there'll be time for the economy to I'm actually suggesting that we will have no perturbation in jobs, almost zero.

明白吗？

Okay?

当然，那些抵制AI的合作伙伴将没有立足之地。

Now, definitely, partners who resist AI will have no place.

还有一点要说的是，咨询合作伙伴在未来也将没有位置，因为未来会由AI代理来帮你制定战略。

There's also something to say that consulting partners have no place in the future because in the future, you have an AI agent figure out your strategy.

你为什么需要一家咨询公司？

Why do you need a consultant firm?

你需要它来进行更深入的实施。

You're gonna need that for more firm implementation.

如果他们的代理比你的更好，我想我们最终会走向那个方向。

And if they have better agents than you do, I think that's where we'll end up with that.

亚历克斯，你觉得

Alex, what are

你对这些有什么看法？

your thoughts on these?

这非常困难。

It's very difficult.

关于普华永道的例子，组织很难自我颠覆。

So on the PwC story, it's very difficult for organizations to self disrupt.

因此，如果你是一家管理咨询公司或会计师事务所，或者其他按小时计费的公司，要自愿从基于投入的定价模式转向基于成果的定价模式是非常困难的。

So if you're a management consultancy or an accountancy, some other bill by the hour heavy firm, it's very difficult for you to willingly and voluntarily transition to an outcome based pricing model versus an input based pricing model.

所以我理解你所说的‘你将无立足之地’这个说法。

So I take the you'll have no place comment.

我把这解读为在实践中试图自我颠覆。

I interpret that as an attempt to self disrupt in practice.

这真的非常非常困难。

It's very, very hard to do that.

熊彼特和颠覆性创新的整体观点是，大多数情况下，经济中对输入型企业的宏观替代，很可能来自其他公司，而不是大型企业自身的自我颠覆。

And the whole point of Schumpeter and disruptive innovation in general is most of the most of the macro replacements for in this case for input based actors in the economy are probably going to come from other firms, not from large firms self disrupting.

关于G42的故事，我觉得实际上非常有趣。

On the G forty two story, I think it's actually really interesting.

我仔细研究了G42的招聘信息，这确实是一份关于AI代理的职位描述。

I looked closely at the G forty two job listing and it really is a job listing for AI agents.

人们不禁要问，尽管在边缘细节上，他们也要求提供开发者信息以及所使用的技术，以确保确实是AI代理在提交申请——这看起来更像是一个营销岗位。

And one has to wonder, yes, like around the edges, they also ask for details from the developer and what was used to make sure that this was really an AI agent submitting itself for think it was a marketing job.

我认为，我们离一个未来已经非常接近了——在那里，人类反而会遭到系统性排斥，‘人类勿扰’将成为常态。

We are so painfully close, I think, to a near future where there's a sort of reverse discrimination against humans and where humans need not apply

天啊。

Oh my god.

最终成了许多职位上的一个贬义词。

End up ends up being an epithet on so many jobs.

但你已经在普华永道的合伙人那里看到了这种情况。

Well, you have that already with the with the PwC partners.

对吧？

Right?

如果你不用AI，就赶紧走人。

If you don't use AI, get out of here.

我们实际上已经快到那个地步了。

That's essentially we're getting to that point.

我们已经走了一半了。

We're halfway there already.

但那是普华永道，本质上是一家以人类为中心的公司，正试图从单位定价的角度迫使人类自我自动化。

That's that's PwC, though, which is a human oriented business basically trying to force humans to self automate at least from a a a unit pricing perspective.

这是由AI驱动的工作，人类只需认同。

This is born AI jobs where humans Agree.

无需

Need not

你知道吗，萨利姆，你和我为大公司做的一件事，是人们需要理解的：大多数大公司其实都是行尸走肉。

You know, Salim, one thing that you and I do for large companies that I think people need to understand, Most large companies out there are walking dead.

他们的商业模式在未来两到五年内将被彻底颠覆。

Their business models will be fundamentally disrupted in the next two to five years.

所以问题来了：他们该如何在别人之前先颠覆自己？

And so the question is, how do they disrupt themselves before someone else does?

答案是，这非常困难，几乎不可能。

And the answer is, it is really hard, almost impossible.

因此，你我过去的做法是，邀请极其优秀的年轻创业者来了解公司的商业模式，然后说：‘如果我有资金支持，我会这样颠覆你。’

And so, what you and I have done before is invite super talented young entrepreneurs to come in, hear the company's business model and say, this is how I would disrupt you if I was funded to do it.

然后，公司应该资助其中最优秀的人。

And then the company should fund the best of them.

对吧？

Right?

我们确实这么做过。

And we've done this.

资助其中最优秀的人，去实际建立一家旨在颠覆主公司的附属公司。

Fund the best of them to actually build a adjacent company who's intended to disrupt the primary company.

没错。

Then yeah.

事实上，这家设计公司Ideal就这么做了。

Literally company, the design firm Ideal actually did this.

他们意识到自己的方法论终将广为人知，而他们无法阻止信息外泄。

They realized that their methodology would be widely known and they couldn't stop the leakage of that.

于是他们挑选了一位特立独行的合伙人，推到前沿，去打造颠覆者。

So they they picked one of their crazy partners and said, to the edge and build build the disruptor.

他创建了一个开放的Ideal设计创意市场。

And he created an open ideal marketplace of of design ideas.

这太惊人了。

It was amazing.

关于彼得刚才说的，有一个注意事项：私募股权人士正在AI自动化领域大展身手。

One caveat to what Peter said there, the private equity guys are having a field day with AI automation.

如果一家公司现金流良好，即使它的商业模式在AI时代注定失败，其利润在转型期间也会飙升，因为短期内，AI完成工作的成本仅为人工的10%，很快将降至2%，而且没有劳动法约束、没有运营开支、无需保险。

And if a company has great cash flow, even if its business model is doomed in the age of AI, the profitability is gonna go through the roof in transition because in the near term, yeah, because, you know, an AI can do the job for 10%, soon to be 2% of the cost of the human, you know, with no labor laws, no overhead, no insurance.

但戴夫。

But Dave.

如果你的现金流很好，就会有创业者眼巴巴地盯着，准备来抢走你的生意。

If you've got good cash flow, there's an entrepreneur looking at that salivating coming to eat your lunch.

是的。

Yeah.

所以，私募股权人士会进来，说：嘿，这公司现金流好，是头现金奶牛，我们要收购你，或者收购你的一部分，然后把你的业务全面AI化。

So what happens is the private equity guys will come in and say, hey, cash flow, cash cow with great cash flow, we're gonna buy you or buy part of you, and then we're gonna AI ify your business.

这会让利润进一步飙升。

That'll drive even more cash to the bottom line.

然后我们会利用这些现金流，要么作为孵化新项目的工具，要么吸引那些创业者，要么直接整合这些初创公司并回购它们。

And then we're gonna use that cash flow either as a vehicle to launch new things like an incubator, or to attract that entrepreneur, or to just roll up those startups and acquire them back in.

这将成为一个核心枢纽。

It becomes kind of a centerpiece.

Anthropic 和 OpenAI 正在与私募股权公司合作，正是为了做这件事。

The way, both Anthropic and OpenAI are partnering with private equity firms to do exactly this.

收购公司，然后用人工智能赋能它们，因为你可以用它来

Go buy companies and then AI enable them because you can do it with As your

他们最近刚宣布了一笔高达一千亿美元的基金，专门用于做这件事。

they do anything in the world just announced a new $100,000,000,000 fund to do nothing but this.

所以杰夫已经在这么做了。

So Jeff is doing it.

你要明白这一点。

Know this.

他们手头的钱已经不够了。

They don't have enough money already.

亚历克斯，我很好奇，或者戴夫，我想听听你对第四点的看法，即公司现在开始追踪每位员工的AI令牌使用情况。

Alex, I'm curious or Dave, I'm curious about your thoughts on the fourth bullet here that companies now track individual employee AI token usage.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

你应当为每位员工设定最低令牌使用量。

And you should have a minimum token usage per employee.

你怎么看？

Thoughts?

戴夫，你先说吧？

Dave, do you wanna go first?

我们已经实施了，抱歉。

We we already implemented sorry.

我们已经在所有公司都实施了这方面的目标，我们的目标是80%的令牌成本，20%的薪资成本。

We we already implemented targets across all of our companies on this, and we're targeting 80% token, 20% salary.

我认为这和萨利姆几分钟前说的非常相似。

And I think that's a really it's very similar to what Salim said a minute ago.

在未来两三年里，会有大量工作岗位被颠覆，但之后情况会好转，到2030年或2032年，一切都会好起来。

There's gonna be huge amounts of job disruption in the next two or three years, and then it'll turn around, and by 2030, 2032, things will be good again.

但你要做的，是在令牌成本占80%、人力成本占20%的时候，成为那剩下的20%。

But but what you wanna do is be one of the 20% that's still there when it's 80% token cost, 20% human cost.

因为世界上没有任何雇主——包括我作为控股股东的所有公司——会关心削减最后20%的薪资支出。

Because no employer in the world, including all the companies I'm the controlling shareholder of, care about cutting the last 20% of payroll.

这根本不是优先事项，因为到了这个阶段，一个能提升我们AI效率哪怕1%的员工，其价值远超过节省成本。

It's not a priority at all, because at that point, an employee that can improve the efficiency of our AI, even 1%, is worth a lot more than cost cutting.

所以我们现在正全力冲刺向80:20的目标。

And so we're in this foot race now to eightytwenty.

詹森提出的一个过渡阶段是三分之二的令牌成本，三分之一的人力成本，但那只会是短暂的。

Jensen's got a stepping stone here of twothree, onethree token cost, but that's gonna be very transitory.

正在朝着令牌成本远超薪资的方向冲刺。

Racing toward token costs being much, much bigger than payroll.

所以我有一个立即要实现的阶段性目标：五五开。

So I have an immediate step at fiftyfifty.

这个目标很快就会实现。

That's coming soon.

抱歉。

Sorry.

你请说。

Go ahead.

亚历克斯，这是正确的指标吗？

Alex, is this the right metric?

我的意思是，你可能会浪费令牌。

I mean, because you can waste tokens.

我的意思是，这需要一个不同的衡量标准。

I mean, it's gotta have a different harness.