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很高兴
Nice to
见到你，Josh。
see you, Josh.
谢谢邀请我来。
Thanks for having me.
这是我的荣幸，老兄。
It's a pleasure, pal.
而且我们认识彼此，天知道，已经几十年了。
And we've known each other for God knows a couple of decades now.
你知道，我觉得大多数人都不太了解你的一些事情。
You know, I think most people don't know something about you.
值得一提。
It's worth mentioning.
既然我们在聊遗传学，就顺便说说，他的外公是诺贝尔经济学奖得主，而他的爷爷是氢弹之父爱德华·泰勒。
Just for fun, since we're talking about genetics, his maternal grandfather was a Nobel Laureate in economics and his paternal grandfather was Edward Teller, the creator of the hydrogen bomb.
这真是个有趣的事实。
It's pretty interesting fact.
压力不小啊。
No pressure.
压力确实不小。
No pressure.
是啊，童年压力很大。
It was a high pressure childhood, yes.
对，我想也是。
Yeah, I guess so.
那我先来问第一个问题吧。
So let me kick off the first question.
你在登月计划这个领域已经干了二十多年了。
So you've been in the moonshot business for over twenty years.
跟我们说说，要提出并启动一个登月计划，实际上需要什么建议？
Walk us through your advice of what it actually takes to come up with a moonshot and launch a moonshot.
你是怎么让这一切变成现实的？
How do you make this real?
在座的很多人都是因为相信乐观主义、相信登月计划才来到这里的。
We've got a lot of individuals here who are here because they believe in optimism, they believe in moonshots.
你知道，十秒钟之内……
You know, in ten seconds...
不，开个玩笑。
No, just kidding.
好了。
Alright.
你有什么建议？
What's your advice?
我的意思是，你学到了很多。
I mean, you've learned so much.
让我给你说两点。
Let let me let me give you two quick things.
第一点，我们先定义一下什么叫登月计划，至少是我们对登月计划的理解。
The first one is, let's just define moonshot, at least how we think of a moonshot.
我也是这么想的。
Which is how I think of it as well.
太好了。
Excellent.
我从你那里
I've learned
学到了很多。
from you.
所以有三个基本要素。
So three basic components.
首先，必须有一个你能指出来并想解决的全球性大问题。
First, there has to be a huge problem with the world that you can name and you wanna solve.
如果你指不出那个大问题，那这顶多算是个学术练习。
If you can't name the huge problem, then it's arguably an academic exercise.
第二，必须有一个听起来像科幻小说里的产品或服务，不管它看起来多么不可能实现，我们都可以事先达成一致，如果你真的做出了那个听起来像科幻小说的产品或服务，它就能解决那个世界性的巨大问题。
Second, there has to be some kind of science fiction sounding product or service that no matter how unlikely it is you could make it, we could pre agree that if you made that science fiction sounding product or service, it would resolve that huge problem with the world.
然后第三，必须有一种突破性的技术，至少给我们一线希望，哪怕是最微小的机会，能够做出那个听起来像科幻小说的产品或服务，并解决那个世界性的巨大问题。
And then three, there has to be some kind of breakthrough technology that gives us a prayer, at least, a tiny chance at minimum, of being able to make that science fiction sounding product or service and resolving that huge problem with the world.
当你具备了这些，我们就称之为登月故事假设。
When you have that, we would call that a moonshot story hypothesis.
这并不意味着你一定会成功，但至少意味着它是可以测试的。
That does not mean you're gonna win, but at least means it's testable.
第二点我想说的是，我们在X公司发现的一个根本问题是，要成为登月探索者，要成为登月团队，你必须同时具备两样东西，而且这两样东西要等量。
The second thing I would say is one of the fundamental issues that we found at X is that you have to have two things in equal amounts in order to be a moonshot explorer, to be a moonshot team.
第一样是你必须有非常高的胆识。
The first one is you have to have very high audacity.
你必须愿意为了非愚蠢的理由而暂时放下怀疑，踏上那些可能真正深刻帮助世界的不寻常旅程。
You have to be willing to suspend your disbelief for non stupid reasons and go on unlikely journeys that might actually profoundly help the world.
但第二样你必须同样具备的是谦逊。
But the second thing you have to have in equal measure is humility.
你得从一开始踏上那条不太可能成功的路时，就知道它不太可能成功。
You have to know from the first moment you set out on that unlikely journey that it's unlikely.
因为如果你不知道，你会在这条路上走得很远，然后才发现它属于那99%根本行不通的情况。
Because if you don't, you will go ruinously far down that path before you find out that that is one of the 99% that just isn't gonna work out.
所以，能在最开始就说：我很自豪我在尝试这个，但它很可能不会成功。
So being able to say right at the beginning, I'm proud that I'm trying this, but it probably won't work.
让我尽可能快速、低成本地弄清楚这到底有没有可能，这样当这个登月计划不合适的时候，你就能继续下一个。
Let me learn as fast and as cheaply as I can whether this is even possible, allows you to get on to the next moonshot when that moonshot's not the right one to do.
那你对大家有什么建议？我是说，选择登月计划这个挑战，现在测试和创造东西的速度很快，对吧？
So your advice for folks, I mean, how would the challenge of picking a moonshot, I mean, right now the speed at which you can test things, create things, right?
但一开始呢，怎么选这个想法？
But what about the beginning, choosing the idea?
这方面有什么建议吗？
Any advice there?
嗯...
Well...
这么说吧。
Put it this way.
你怎么快速否定一个想法？
What do you do to shut down an idea quickly?
有时候，这个想法就是不够大。
So sometimes the idea is just not big enough.
有时候，这个想法太合理了，或者太可能成功了。
Sometimes the idea is too reasonable or likely to succeed.
有时候，它就是对世界不好，或者可能带来的次要问题太多了。
Sometimes it's just not good for the world or the potential for too many sort of secondary problems associated with it is just too high.
很多时候是技术经济的问题。
Often it's techno economics.
我都没法告诉你，有多少登月计划在早期让人感觉特别好。
I cannot tell you the number of moonshots that feel so good to people in the early days.
通常，这些人都是技术背景很强的。
Often, these are very technical people.
直到你说，真的吗？
And it's not until you say, really?
比如，我们一步一步来。
Like, let's go step by step.
你要用的材料，最好的情况是什么？
What is the best case scenario for the build of materials that you would make this from?
光是那些材料的重量和成本是多少？
What is like just the raw cost in weight of the stuff that would go into that?
人们真的愿意付多少钱？
What are people really gonna pay?
这有可能……
Could this even plausibly...
零零，你知道马斯克怎么称呼这个吗？
Zero zero you know what does Elon call it?
在这方面，就是第一性原理思维。
First principle thinking in that regard.
第一性原理思考技术经济学。
First principle thinking about the techno economics.
你往往能在很早的时候就扼杀那些登月计划，因为它根本不会变成一个可持续的业务。
You can often kill moonshots in the very early days because it's just not gonna turn into an enduring business.
至少我相信，使命和利润可以相互支持，如果你做的事情会亏钱，那它可能不会改变世界。
And at least what I believe is that purpose and profit can support each other, and then if you're doing something that's gonna lose money, it's probably not gonna change the world.
戴夫？
Dave?
我很好奇，你知道，亚历克斯和彼得写了那本《解决一切》的书，非常棒，但物理学、材料科学、化学的变化速度，正在以惊人的速度加速。
Really curious about, know, Alex and Peter have this Solve Everything book, which is phenomenal, but the rate at which physics and material science, chemistry is gonna change, just astronomically accelerating.
那你加入谷歌的时候，是二十五年前还是二十三年前？
So when you joined Google, what, twenty five, twenty three years ago?
多久以前？
How long ago?
十六年半以前。
Sixteen and a half years ago.
我联合创立了X，十六年半
I co founded X, sixteen and a half
前。
years ago.
十六年半前，好的。
Sixteen and a half years ago, okay.
那时候公司大概值300亿美元吧？
And at the time it was about a $30,000,000,000 company?
差不多吧，是的。
Ish, yes.
那时候很小，真的很小。
Very sweet, it was very small back then.
一个很小的300亿美元公司。
Very tiny little $30,000,000,000 company.
现在差不多是5000亿美元的公司了。
Now just about $500,000,000,000 company.
在这样的大公司里，研发的规模增长得非常惊人，简直太厉害了。
So the scale of R and D in a corporate environment like that has grown miraculously, just absolutely tremendously.
我记得你在后台说过，新想法的理想目标是每年一百个，其中两个能成功，对吧？
And I think you were saying backstage that the ideal target for a new idea, a 100 ideas a year, two of them succeed?
没错。
That's right.
我们每年会启动一到两百个想法，这些想法能走到有代号的那一步。
We start one to 200 ideas a year that make it far enough that they end up with a code name.
谁知道我们实际看了多少呢？
Who knows how many we actually look at?
但每年有一到两百个想法能走到有代号那一步。
But one to 200 ideas a year that make it far enough we get a code name.
在这些想法中，大约五到六年后，我们会有两个登月项目从X毕业。
Of those, about five to six years later, we graduate two moon shots out of X.
哇。
Wow.
所以成功率是百分之二。
So two percent hit rate.
那么如果AGI即将到来，而且想法率——不，它已经来了。
And so then if AGI is imminent and the idea rate No, it's here.
天文数字般增长，对吧？它是否也沿着同样的指数曲线增长？
Astronomically, right, does that grow on that same exponential curve?
漏斗前端的事物数量从100变成1000，再变成10000，再到……
Just the number of things at the front of the funnel go from 100 to 1,000 to 10,000 to
哦，那当然。
Oh, for sure.
我是说，世界上从来不缺问题。
I mean there's no shortage of problems with the world.
也从来不缺针对这些问题的创意想法。
There's no shortage of creative ideas for running at those problems.
我觉得AI会在某种程度上缩短从疯狂想法到我们降低风险、能够明确说‘这里有证据证明它不再是疯狂想法’的时间，这个时间正在缩短。
I think AI is going to somewhat shrink that time from a crazy idea to us having de risked it to the point where we can say definitively here's evidence it's not a crazy idea anymore, that's getting shorter.
我希望AI能让我们更大胆，目标定得更高，这样我们就能在更短的时间内做更多事情，但本质上我觉得结构还是一样的。
I hope that AI is going to let us raise our audacity even higher, so we'll be shooting higher, and so we'll be able to do more in a shorter amount of time, but fundamentally I think the structure will be the same.
我觉得如果
I think if
你三年前问我，X公司出了哪些大成果？
you asked me three years ago what are the big things that came out of out of X?
Waymo是排在第一位的。
Waymo is at the top of the list.
还有谷歌，谷歌大脑。
Google Google Brain.
对，但现在，我正想问这个呢。
But yeah, but now, so I was gonna ask about it.
谷歌大脑以前可能只是个很酷的东西，直到几年前，它突然变成了整个未来的核心。
So Google Brain was probably like a, yeah, this is cool up until some point a couple years ago when it's like no, this is the entire future of
现在是谷歌的核心了。
Google now.
你们过去三个小时里八成的时间都在聊那些可以说是Google Brain引爆的东西。
You guys just spent 80% of the last three hours talking about the stuff that arguably like Google Brain sort of burst into
世界。
the world.
等等，Google Brain是什么？
Wait, what is Google Brain?
解释一下，因为我们知道DeepMind，但不知道Google Brain。
Define it because we know DeepMind, but we don't know Google Brain.
Google Brain，大概十五年前在X开始的，是我们最早启动的项目之一。
So Google Brain, which started X fifteen and a half years ago or so, was one of the earliest things that we started.
当时，有一批学者有点不受待见。
At the time, there were a set of academics who were kind of out of vogue.
比如吴恩达、杨立昆，还有几个人，他们说规模可能很重要。
This was like Andrew Ng, Jan Lecun, a few others, who were saying, I think scale might matter.
那时候神经网络在这个领域完全不受重视。
And neural nets were absolutely dead in the field at the time.
他们说，我觉得规模可能很重要，而且可能真的能让神经网络复兴。
And they're saying, I think scale might matter and it might actually bring neural networks back.
但领域里的其他人都说，不，你们疯了。
And everyone else in the field said, nope, you're crazy.
当时吴恩达来到谷歌X，我们建立了所谓的……
Andrew Ng came to Google X at the time and we set up what is...
就是和杰夫·迪恩一起搞的谷歌大脑。
What was called Google Brain with Jeff Dean.
他们俩合作，想的是：如果我们把神经网络工业化会怎么样？
So the two of them paired together to say, what if we industrialized neural networks?
如果我们把它们的规模做到以前任何人做过的几万倍呢？
What if we made them tens of thousands of times bigger than anyone had ever done before?
那会不会真的成为大家一直等待的突破？
Could that actually be the breakthrough that everyone's been waiting for?
所以我们是最早真正实现我们所说的“学习”的人。
So we were the first ones who really made what we called Learning.
TPU最终就是来自谷歌大脑。
TPUs ultimately came from Google Brain.
Transformer，它基本上支撑了所有东西，字面上就是ChatGPT里的那个T。
The transformer which sort of underpins everything, it's literally the T in chat GPT.
对。
Yes.
那个也是来自谷歌大脑。
That came from Google Brain.
所以，你知道，我们的工作就是制造那些最终能改变世界的种子晶体，我觉得谷歌大脑就算一个。
So, you know, our job is to make the seed crystals that ultimately go on to change the world and I think Google Brain counts as one
其中之一。
of them.
但肯定有一段
But there must have a
很长的时期，那东西看起来挺新奇，也很有前景。
long period of time there where that was kind of quaint and promising.
然后最近这段时间，感觉就是‘天哪，这可比‘新奇有前景’厉害多了’。
And then a period of time just recently where it's like holy crap, that was a lot more than quaint and promising.
当然，但我觉得任何创新的现实就是，它需要很长时间。
Of course, but I think the reality of any innovation is it takes a super long time.
每一项创新都像是花了十五到二十年才实现的‘一夜成功’。
Every single innovation is like a overnight success that was fifteen to twenty years in the making.
只是因为大众直到那漫长的第十八年的才注意到，感觉就像是一夜之间发生的。
And just because the general public only wakes up to it in year eighteen of that slog, it feels like it
发生了
happened over
十一年努力后的‘一夜成功’，确实如此。
Overnight success after eleven years of hard For sure.
所以，Astro，你
So Astro you
你们快加入吧。
Jump in guys.
看吧。
Watch
评估了数百个登月计划。
hundreds of moonshots, evaluated hundreds.
有哪些你本来希望看到成功的登月计划，但最后没能成，或者没能达到预期，你本来很希望它们能实现的？
What are a couple of examples of moonshots that you would like to have seen that didn't quite make it, didn't cut the mustard or whatever you would have loved to have had them come to fruition?
我的意思是，我有一长串这样的例子。
I mean, have a very long list.
我给你举两个例子，但当然可以。
I'll give you two examples, but Sure.
我们一直在反复研究清洁水的问题。
We've been working on clean water over and over again.
如果你能制造出清洁水，如果你能从大气中提取水，如果你能以十分之一的价格进行海水淡化，那么总成本必须降到每升一分钱左右，才能真正改变世界。
If you can make clean water, if you could pull it from the atmosphere, if you could desal for a tenth the price, you have to be able to get to like a penny a liter all in cost for it to really change the world.
但世界上有近30亿人面临水资源压力。
But we have almost 3,000,000,000 people in the world who are water stressed
他们没有干净的饮用水。
Who don't have clean water to drink.
随着气候变化加剧，情况会变得更糟。
That's gonna get worse as climate change picks up.
全球将会有数亿的气候难民，而这往往是因为他们缺乏足够的干净水源开始的。
We're gonna have hundreds of millions of climate refugees around the world and it's often going to start because they don't have enough clean water.
这是最需要解决的重大问题之一。
This is one of the biggest problems to solve.
但在技术经济方面，我们在这个领域做了很多出色的工作，但成本还是会达到每升10美分。
But technoeconomics, we've done some great work in this space, but it's gonna be 10¢ a liter.
不行。
Nope.
我们不会再做这个了。
We'll stop doing that.
再试一次。
Try it again.
所以这就是一个我们经常要回到的例子。
So that's an example of something keep coming back to.
还有两个。
Two more.
两个
Two
更多。
more.
好的。
Okay.
能够实现能源的时间和地点转移。
Being able to time shift and location shift energy.
我故意这么说。
And I say it that way on purpose.
因为如果你说输电线和电池，人们往往会缩小关注范围。
Because if you say transmission lines and batteries, people tend to narrow their focus in.
但是能够实现能量的时间转移和空间转移，绝对会改变世界。
But being able to time shift and location shift energy is absolutely gonna change the world.
我们在这方面已经尝试了很多次。
We've taken a bunch of runs at those.
到目前为止，你知道，我们对找到的东西并不是特别满意。
So far, you know, we haven't been super excited with what we've found.
教育是另一个领域。
Education is another one.
教育现在行不通。
Education is not working.
在发达国家，教育也行不通。
It's it's not working in the developed world.
在发达国家，教育也行不通。
It's not working in the developed world.
我们
We're
我们会一直回到这个问题上，直到找到答案，因为这可能是你能做的最根本的登月计划之一。
gonna keep coming back to that one till we find something because that has got to be one of the sort of most fundamental moonshots that you could do.
明白了。
Got it.
太好了。
Love it.
亚历克斯，请讲。
Alex, please.
我想聊聊登月计划的历史。
I'd love to talk a bit about the history of moonshots.
你的祖父之一发明了氢弹，然后如果你看看历史，我应该补充说，人类曾经一度在真正的登月计划中把人送上月球，然后那停止了。
So, one of your grandfathers invented the hydrogen bomb and then if if you look at history, then I should add maybe humanity was in the process once upon a time of landing humans on the moon in actual moon shots, and then that stopped.
有时候人们会对时间顺序有争议，但可以说，取决于你相信哪个版本的大停滞论，可能有多达五十年的时间，大概从1970年到2020年左右，再说一次，边缘上可以争论，但看起来人类整体的登月计划发射速度减慢了。
Sometime one can quibble over the chronology, but arguably depending on which version of the great stagnation thesis one subscribes to, there was maybe up to a fifty year period, call it 1970 to twenty twenty ish, again one can quibble at the margins, when it would seem that there was, call it a reduced launch velocity of moon shots from humanity as all.
我们不再把人送上月球了。
We stopped landing humans on the moon.
我们停止了应用物理方面的创新，不管它们有没有战争潜力，比如氢弹。
We stopped inventing arguably applied physical innovations regardless of their warfare potential or not like hydrogen bombs.
然后，大概在2020年左右，前后几年，登月计划又开始了。
And then again arguably sometime around 2020 or so plus or minus a few years, moonshots started again.
我们有了真正能用的超级智能。
We got super intelligence that actually works.
我们有了真正能用的机器人。
We're getting robots that actually work.
所谓的物理智能，看起来也起作用了。
Physical intelligence, so called, is seeming to work.
我们有了医疗纳米技术，比如脂质纳米颗粒，帮助应对了疫情。
We got arguably medical nanotechnology in the form of lipid nanoparticles that helped to treat a pandemic.
所以有几个相关的小问题。
So a few related sub questions.
第一，你相不相信，或者你认不认同某种“大停滞”理论，就是说登月计划有过半个世纪的停顿？
One, do you believe, do you subscribe to any variant of a great stagnation hypothesis that there was a half century pause in moonshots?
如果你确实这么认为，那另一个问题是，我们怎么防止这种情况再次发生？
And to the extent you do, another question, how do we prevent that from happening again?
嗯，首先，我知道你可能不是那个意思，但我要把这当成一个巨大的赞美，而且是一个酝酿了十一年的玩笑。
Well, the first thing is, I know you didn't maybe intend it that way, but I'm going take that as an enormous compliment and eleven year in the making joke that we just made.
因为我们从2010年开始，而你几次提到2020年，我的观点正是我们在2010年就建立了一个登月工厂。
Since we started in 2010 and you said 2020 several times, exactly my point is we started literally a moonshot factory in 2010.
所以你的回答是
So your answer
你
is you
把登月计划带回来了。
brought moonshots back.
嗯，是的。
Well, yes.
在某种程度上。
To some extent.
我愿意相信我们确实做到了。
I would like to think that I believe we did.
所以这是答案的前半部分。
And so that's the first half of the answer.
而且，是的，我确实认为……
And and yes, I do think...
我不知道。
I don't know.
我觉得没人预料到会停滞不前，但我想我们在某个地方有点迷失了方向，你知道，你那边有点星际迷航的东西。
I don't think anyone was planning on it being a stagnation, but I think functionally we had lost our way a little bit somewhere between, you know, you had your Star Trek stuff up here a little bit.
是的。
Yes.
在六十年代和NASA以及它带来的灵感之间，有一段时间我们失去了探索精神。
Somewhere between like the nineteen sixty's and NASA and the inspiration that that created, there was a period where we sort of lost the explorer spirit.
你觉得……
What do you think...
你觉得病因和诊断是什么？
Do you have an etiology, diagnosis?
你觉得
What do
哪里出了问题？
you think went wrong?
我不知道，但这里有一个部分答案，然后我想谈谈未来。
I don't know but but here is a partial answer to that and then I wanna get to the future.
但这里有个……
But here's...
我能告诉你们一个小秘密吗？
Can I tell you all a dirty little secret?
这是我们之间的小秘密。
It'll be our little secret.
其实，登月计划真的非常容易。
Taking moonshots is really, really easy.
这简直容易得可笑。
It's it's it's laughably easy.
如果你不在乎效率，只要找一群超级有干劲、有点盲目乐观的人，砸一大笔钱给他们，你绝对能搞出一些登月项目。
If you don't care about efficiency, you just find some super energetic people who are sort of delusionally optimistic, pour a bunch of money on them, you will absolutely get some moonshots.
只是投资回报率不太好看。
It's just not a very good return on investment.
所以我觉得，我们有过一段时期，主要是因为二战和冷战，那时候人们不在乎投资回报。
And so I think we had a period mostly because of World War two and the Cold War where people didn't care about the return on investment.
后来有一段时间，人们可能还是想要登月项目，但他们开始在乎投资回报了。
Then there was a period where people probably still wanted moonshots, but they cared about the return on investment.
所以这类项目就少了。
And so there was less of it.
X一直在尝试做的，就是打造一个登月工厂，能够高效地获取那种大胆的创意，把流程系统化，不只是大量去做，而是高效地做，这样人们才有理由投入更多资金。
What X has been trying to practice is making a moonshot factory, being able to get at that audacity efficiently enough to systematize the process, not just to do it a lot, but to do it efficiently so it is rational for people to put a lot more money in.
至于你提到的未来，我觉得有好消息，现在我们每周都会接到一些大公司或国家的联系，说他们想建立自己的登月工厂。
And to your point about the future, good news I think, we get approached now on a weekly basis from some large company or some country saying they wanna set up their own moonshot factory.
我不太确定我们具体能怎么帮他们，但确实有很多人渴望做更多这类事情。
I'm not sure exactly how we can help them with that, but there is a hunger to do more of this.
所以好消息是，我预计未来你会看到更多这样的项目，不只是来自Astro，还有——
And so good news, I expect you'll see a lot more of it in the future, not just from But Astro, take a
等一下，在座的就有不少人在经营公司，确实想建立自己的登月工厂。
second and there are a number of people here in the audience that are running companies that do wanna set up a moonshot factory.
我们之前也聊过一些，对吧，让我总结一下我从你这里学到的东西，你是我的登月导师，就是说你的核心组织负责每年实现10%的利润增长。
And we have discussed a little bit about this, right, which let me paraphrase what I've learned from you, you're my moonshot mentor here, which is your core organization is responsible for delivering 10% profit year after year.
我和萨利姆写过相关文章，就是说你的登月工厂，如果可以这么说的话，需要放在组织的边缘，那里有你的疯狂思想家，对吧，而且，再次引用你的话，如果你做任何只有10%改进的事情，你就会被解雇。
And Salim and I have written about this, that your moonshot factory, if you would, needs to be on the edge of the organization where your crazy thinkers exist, right, and you, again quoting you, you know, if you work on anything at 10%, you're fired.
要专注于10倍，也就是1000%的增长，然后让那个边缘的登月组织直接向CEO汇报。
Focus on 10 x, a thousand percent, and then have that side moonshot organization report directly to the CEO.
这个模式现在还成立吗？
Is that still a formulation?
当然成立。
Absolutely.
你知道吗，我做过这样一个实验。
You know, I've run the following experiment.
抱歉，彼得已经听过很多遍了。
I apologize to Peter who's heard this a bunch.
萨利姆可能也听过几次，但请耐心听我讲四十五到五十秒。
Salim's probably heard it a few times too, but just bear with me for forty five, fifty seconds.
选项A，选项B。
Choice a, choice b.
选项A，你今年能给公司带来一百万美元的价值，但这是……
Choice a, you can give a a million dollars of value to your business this year, but it's...
而且是确定的。
And it's guaranteed.
或者B，选项B，十亿美元，你今年能给公司带来十亿美元的价值，但不保证。
Or b, choice b, billion, you can give a billion dollars of value to your business this year, but it's not guaranteed.
只有百分之一的机会。
It's one chance in a 100.
所以A是稳拿一百万，B是十亿，但只有百分之一的机会。
So a million guaranteed, b billion, one chance in a 100.
选A的举手？
Who's choosing choice a?
好。
Alright.
这里几乎没人举手，全世界也几乎没人会选A。
Almost nobody here, almost nobody in the world raises their hand.
选B的举手？
Who's choosing choice b?
好。
Alright.
看来你们都通过了数学测试。
So you all passed the math test.
B的期望值可能是A的十倍。
It could have 10 times the expected utility.
我在全球各地跟高管们做过这个测试。
I've done this with CXOs the world over.
然后我说，好。
And I've said, okay.
现在，如果你在最好的日子里，做最疯狂的梦，你的经理、你的CEO、你的董事会真的支持你选B的话，请继续举手。
Now keep your hand up if on their best days in your wildest dreams, your manager, your CEO, your board of directors actually supports you doing choice b.
结果房间里所有的手都放
And every hand in the room goes
下来了。
down.
然后我说，你需要的不是创新讲座，而是一个新经理。
And I say, you don't need a lecture on innovation, you need a new manager.
这……
This...
所以你刚才说的那个说法完全正确，就是因为这个原因，你必须把选B的人隔离到一个真正需要他们的地方，并且容忍随之而来的混乱。
So the formulation you just described is exactly right and it's because of this thing, you have to sequester the choice B's to a place where they're actually wanted and and the mess that comes with them is tolerated.
这就是洛克希德公司的臭鼬工厂，在边缘地带。
This is Lockheed Skunk Works off on the edge.
这就是史蒂夫·乔布斯把Mac团队带到园区外，对，就是为了打造那个。
This is Steve Jobs taking the Mac team off campus to Yeah, build exactly.
那个
The
人类大脑要能做到这一点，非常困难。
capability of the human mind to do this is very hard.
这几年我一直在观察一些事情，很想听听你的看法。
There's something I've been observing over the last few years and I'd love for you to comment on this.
彼得在他早期的一本书里写过这个，就是关于世界去货币化的那本，对吧？
Peter wrote about this in one of his original books, the demonetization of the world, right?
在整个人类历史上，先进技术一直都很昂贵。
So throughout human history, it's always been true that advanced technologies cost a lot.
而今天，人类历史上第一次，先进技术变得便宜了。
And today for the first time in human history, advanced technologies are cheap.
太阳能很便宜，传感器很便宜，区块链是开源的、免费的，等等等等。
Solar energy is cheap, sensors are cheap, blockchain is open source and free, etcetera, etcetera.
这应该能让首席财务官或者大公司，在你想做非常颠覆性的事情时，不必再下大赌注。
This should enable for a CFO or for a big company, when you want to do something very disruptive, you had to make a big bet.
投入大量资源，首席财务官会讨厌你，他们会尽快撤资。
Put a lot of resource, CFO hated you, they would defund it as fast as they could.
今天你可以在边缘地带进行一系列非常颠覆性的实验。
Today you can take a portfolio of very disruptive experiments at the edge.
所以现在关键就在于心态——你愿意去尝试吗？
So now it just comes down to mindset Are you willing to go for it?
你同意这个观点吗？
Do you agree with that?
你看到有多少公司在这样做？
And how much are you seeing companies do that?
我同意。
I do agree.
我觉得这是一个……
I think it is a...
我经常听到有人说，哎呀，Alphabet 很有钱。
I hear a lot, oh well, Alphabet has lots of money.
所以才会这样。
And so that's why this is happening.
我向你保证，根本不是这个原因。
I guarantee you that is not why.
我们的团队都很小。
We have tiny teams.
从我们这里毕业的团队，比如 Google Brain 毕业的时候，大概只有 18 个人，这很正常。
The teams that graduate from us, Google Brain when they graduated, there were like 18 people and that's pretty normal.
我们保持团队小规模，是因为我们想……
We keep our teams tiny because we want...
我经常对他们说，我希望你们在人生的游戏里找到作弊码。
I say to them all the time is, I want you to find a cheat in the video game of life.
一个快刀斩乱麻的时刻。
A Gordian knot chopping moment.
如果你找不到那种方法，我不希望你用常规方式解决问题。
If you can't find that, I don't want you solving things the normal way.
我宁愿你停下来，我们去找另一个登月计划，因为那才是登月计划的意义。
I'd rather you stop and we go find a different moonshot cause that's what moonshots mean.
所以我认为这主要是心态问题。
So I believe it is mostly a mindset issue.
对于那些想了解更多的人，我们开设了一门大师班证书课程。
And for those of you out there who are interested in learning more, we did a master class certificate course.
如果你完成所有作业，大约需要二十个小时。
It's about twenty hours if you do all the work.
如果只是看视频，大约三个半小时就够了。
It's about three and a half hours if you just watch the videos.
我鼓励大家去看看。
I encourage people to go watch.
这个课程是关于突破性创新的，会一步步带着大家走。
It's on Breakthrough Innovation and it will step people through.
我们的秘诀其实不是什么秘密。
It's our secret sauce is not secret.
我们就是在告诉大家具体怎么做。
We're telling people exactly how to do it.
今晚，Astro，你们团队有个晚间节目，会把那个十小时的课程压缩成五十分钟的版本。
And tonight, Astro, there's an evening program by your team doing a fifty minute condensed version of that ten hour course.
没错，今晚七点，Joe Sargent，会很有意思，主题是快速原型制作。
Exactly, 07:00 tonight, Joe Sargent, it's gonna be a lot of fun, it's on rapid prototyping.
太棒了。
Amazing.
我还想更深入地了解一下登月计划的经济学，顺便把相关情况说清楚。
I'd also love to maybe better understand and develop the record on the economics of moonshots.
一方面，我可以论证登月计划的真实成本会随着时间增加，因为期望值在提高，而且我们看到各种棘手的问题被坐在马桶上的人随手就解决了。
I could make on the one hand an argument that the real cost of moonshots increases over time because expectations go up and we see Erdish problems solved left and right by people sitting on the toilet casually solving hard problems.
我也可以反过来论证，实现登月式目标的实际成本正在急剧下降，因为我们现在有了超级智能，能解决很多难题。
I could make the argument in the opposite direction that the real cost of achieving a moonshot is hyper deflating because we have super intelligence now and we can solve lots of hard problems.
我大概也能提出一个平庸的、折中的论点。
I could probably make some sort of mediocre middle of the road argument as well.
对于登月式目标实际成本的长期经济趋势，你的立场是什么？
What would be your position on the long term economics of the real costs of moon shots?
是急剧上升、急剧下降，还是保持不变？
Hyper inflating, hyper deflating, staying the same?
我们一直在追踪，因为我们非常关注实现登月式目标的效率。
I mean, we track because we're obsessed with the efficiency of getting at moon shots.
我们非常仔细地追踪培养毕业生的成本。
We track what it costs for us to get to our graduates very carefully.
我可以告诉你，过去十六年里，这个成本下降了大约三分之二。
And I can tell you that it's down by about a factor three over the last sixteen years.
这里面有很多浪费和复杂性，而且这个指标有点滞后。
There's a lot of waste and complexity and it's a bit of a lagging indicator.
所以有些……
So some of what...
等等，等等，三倍？那算通货膨胀吧。
Wait, wait, factor of three over that that's inflation.
不，是便宜了三倍，准确说。
No, Is a flat to three cheaper, just to be clear.
哦，这样啊。
Is it a Okay.
所以，但是……
So but it that...
十六年三倍听起来……
Factor of three over sixteen years sounds...
对我来说差不多是每年10%，至少是市场回报率。
Rhymes to me like 10% per year which or at least market returns.
可能是市场回报率。
May be market returns.
我们说的是两回事。
We're talking about two different things.
我说的是达到Waymo水平的成本。
I'm talking about the cost to get to a Waymo.
我敢保证，Waymo的价值相对于开发那个团队的成本，以及开发其他没成功的东西的成本来说，都是巨大的，所以这是一笔非常好的投资回报。
I guarantee you the value of the Waymo is so huge relative to not only the cost of developing that team, but developing all of the other things that didn't work, it is a very good return on investment.
所以我不担心这个。
So I'm not worried about that.
我看的是，每个能通过我们整个流程的东西，它的成本是多少。
I'm looking at what does it cost for each individual thing that makes it all the way through our process.
而这个成本在逐年下降，大概每年下降10%到20%吧。
And that is getting cheaper at, I don't know, 10%, 20% year over year, something like that.
一部分是因为我们工作做得越来越好了。
Some of that is because we're getting better at our job.
一部分是因为我们让一些东西更早地毕业了。
Some of that is we're graduating things a little bit earlier.
其中很大一部分是因为人工智能。
A lot of it is because of artificial intelligence.
所以是所有这些因素的综合。
So it's a mix of all those things.
但现在实现登月计划
But it's cheaper to get
比过去便宜了。
to moonshots now than it was in the past.
有一些……
There are some...
也许我们可以再深入探讨一下。
Maybe just to develop this a little bit more.
有些人会说，要解决科学和工程领域最重大的挑战，不会像是一次性的、尖峰式的能力发射。
Some would argue that to solve some of the grandest challenges in science and engineering, it's not going to be like a sort of a one shot spiky capability launch.
这将是我们的经济宏观增长的结果。
It's going to be the result of our economy macro growth.
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我们整体提升经济能力，这样特定的登月计划就会变得更容易实现。
That we grow our capacity of our economy holistically and that enables particular moonshots to become easier.
听你说十六年内成本降低三倍，按实际价值算，对我来说，也许你持不同观点，但这听起来基本上就是市场每十年翻一番的结果，股市每十年翻一番。
When I hear you say three X cost reduction presumably in real terms over sixteen years, that to me, maybe you take a different position, that to me sounds basically like just the result of markets doubling say every ten years, stock market doubles every ten years.
所以，登月计划成本降低的结果，在我看来基本上就是我们的经济能做的事情更多了，这和我之前说的其实是一回事。
So the result of the reduced cost of moonshots sounds to me like basically just our economy is capable of more things and it's basically the same I
我不同意。
disagree.
我觉得你把粉刷房子的成本和房子的价值搞混了。
I think you're confusing the the cost to paint a house with the value of the house.
这就像苹果和橙子，根本不是一回事。
They're like apples and oranges, they're not the same thing.
我说的是我们粉刷房子有多便宜，而不是世界会变成什么样。
I'm talking about how cheap it is for us to paint our house, not what the world will
粉刷？为什么要停留在每年便宜的登月计划上，阿斯特罗？
paint Why stop at cheap moonshots a year Astro?
我是说，为什么
I mean, why
你为什么不推出100个婴儿登月计划式的Alphabet公司呢？我的意思是，这大概是10倍的增长，对吧？
aren't you pushing out 100 baby moonshot Alphabet companies I per mean this is about 10x growth, right?
没错。
True.
我是说，再说一遍，如果我关心的只是登月计划，而不关心效率，我想我们会那么做。
I mean, again, if all I cared about was moonshots and I didn't care about efficiency, I guess we would do that.
因为我痴迷于效率，有一种文化节奏和一套习惯，这些很容易描述，但要让人们实践起来却极其困难。
Because I'm obsessed about efficiency, there's a cultural rhythm and a set of habits that are really easy to describe but fiendishly hard to get people to practice.
比如着眼长远、保持知识上的诚实、谦逊行事、做团队合作者而不是自大狂。
Things like playing the long game, being intellectually honest, showing up with humility, being a team player and not being an egomaniac.
每个人都会说，对对，这还用说。
Like everyone's like, yeah, yeah, duh.
每个人都想要那样。
Everyone wants that.
但请花点时间，非常诚实地问问自己，你的组织今天真的是这样运作的吗？
But just take a moment and ask yourself super honestly, is that how your organization really functions today?
我能听到笑声，因为事实并非如此。
I can hear the laughter because it isn't.
这不是你的错。
It's not your fault.
但必须有人极其执着地去创造一个微观环境，让这些真正成为适应性行为，才能做到这一点。
But someone would have to be maniacally determined to create a microcosm in which those things were actually the adaptive behaviors in order to do that.
我极度专注的就是创造——也就是文化工程，让人们实践这些，从而高效地推动创新。
That's what I'm maniacally focused on is create, is the culture engineering necessary to get people to practice that the drive innovation efficiently.
不幸的是，我知道如何对几百人做到这一点。
Unfortunately, I know how to do that with a few 100 people.
我不知道如何对几千人做到这一点。
I don't know how to do that with a few thousand people.
有意思。
Interesting.
这是一个文化问题，我真的不知道怎么解决。
It's a culture problem that I just don't know
怎么解决。
how to solve.
所以，
So
阿斯特罗，那你是不是在说，终极的登月计划就是那个元登月计划，也就是解决如何发射更多登月计划的组织问题？
Astro, aren't you making the argument then that the ultimate moonshot is the meta moonshot of solving the organizational problem of launching more moonshots?
是的。
Yes.
我会把你的问题和我的想法联系起来，我想说的是，我们常说的元登月计划，就是如何系统化激进创新。
I'm gonna connect your question with the way I think about it, which is I would say the meta moonshot, we often talk about is the meta moonshot, is how to systematize radical innovation.
那么回到你的问题，还有一个元元登月计划，那就是如何系统化地系统化激进创新。
So to your question then, there is a meta meta moonshot, which is how to systematize systematizing radically.
如何复制登月计划工厂。
How to and paste moonshot factories.
这就对了。
There you go.
回到我之前说的，世界正在向我们提出这个问题。
Which back to what I was saying before, the world is coming and asking us that.
我们很乐意帮忙。
We would love to help.
我还没想清楚怎么做这个元元登月计划，但我们很兴奋能帮忙。
I haven't yet figured out how to do the meta meta moonshot but we're excited to help.
组织奇点，萨利姆。
Organizational singularity Salim.
对，我觉得我们可能有你要的方法论，因为我们十年来一直在构建一个社会层。
Yeah I think we might have that methodology for you because we've been building for ten years a societal layer.
我们现在在全球有五万人，专注于如何真正创造一个环境，让你能非常非常快地孵化这些东西。
We're now 50,000 people globally on how do you actually create an environment where you can spin off these things very, very quickly.
所以我觉得这几乎就像你解决了斯图尔特·布兰德的分层理论中的内层，而我们解决了外层，这太低了。
So I think it's almost like you've solved the inner few layers of Stewart Brand's paste layer thing and we've solved the outer it's too low.
强大的
The strong
合作，戴夫，我们正要这么说。
collaboration Dave, were gonna say.
我想借用你的原话来说：各位，告诉你们一个小秘密，做登月计划其实非常容易。
I'd like to take your exact quote and say look, dirty little secret everybody, doing a moonshot is really, really easy.
你找一群狂热专注、真正聪明、在乎使命的人，然后往他们身上砸钱。
You take fanatically focused people who care about a mission, who are really, really smart, and you pour money on them.
太好了。
Great.
将来会有一个世界，你把那些人换成AGI，把钱换成算力，往它们身上砸。
Now there will be a world where you swap out the people and you swap in AGIs, and you take out the money and you pour compute on them.
那个世界还没到来。
That world isn't here yet.
我们现在正处于一个过渡世界，那里有三个AI和三个人，我把算力和钱都砸在他们身上。
There's got to be some transition world we're in right now where there are three AIs and three people and I poured computing money on them.
然后还有另一个比例，那是……
And then there's another ratio and it was...
你已经开始走这条路了吗？
Have you have you started down that journey yet?
完全开始了。
Totally.
我是说，好吧。
I mean, alright.
很深。
Deep.
我要把你的问题跟一个题外话连起来。
I'm gonna connect your question to like a side rant.
一方面，如果有人来找你说，想跟你推销我的公司。
On the one hand if someone came to you and said, wanna pitch you my company.
你准备好听我的推销了吗？
Are you ready for my pitch?
我们用电力。
We use electricity.
你会觉得我疯了。
You would think I was nuts.
一方面，如果我的生意不用电，你会害怕，但你会说，那又怎样？
Like on the one hand, you'd be frightened if I didn't use electricity in my business, but you'd be like, so what?
那只是实现细节。
That's an implementation detail.
你在做什么？
What are you doing?
我对AI也有同样的感觉。
I feel the same way about AI.
我其实尽量少提AI，因为它让我抓狂，就像我……
I actually try to say AI as little as possible because it's it's driving me crazy the way I...
我们应该说“我们AI”。
We should say We AI.
我三十年前就拿了人工智能的博士学位，所以对这个词有点放不下。
I I got a PHD thirty years ago in artificial intelligence, so a little stuck on that one.
好的。
Okay.
不过……
But...
我也是。
Me too.
一方面，就像你刚才说的，我们的每一个登月计划，就是这样。
On the one hand, like what you just described, every one of our moonshots, that's it.
就是一群智能体和一群人一起合作，试图解决一个问题。
It's a bunch of agents and a bunch of people working together to try to solve a problem.
那只是实现细节。
That's an implementation detail.
我们真正关注的是问题本身。
What we're obsessed with is the problem.
不管是清洁水，还是电网规模的储能方式，还是教育，还是怎么修复电网，怎么让我们的世界真正实现循环利用，这样我们就不用每年把数万亿美元扔进垃圾填埋场。
Whether it's clean water or it's a way to make grid scale energy storage or it's education, whether it's how to fix the electric grid, how to make our world serve actually circular so we're not sending trillions of dollars a year to landfill.
这些才是我们真正痴迷的事情。
Like those are the things that we're obsessed about.
而在背后，是的，就是人和智能体在推动这一切发生。
And then in the background, yeah, it's humans and agents like making it happen.
但我们大部分精力都放在问题上，以及怎么把它跟商业模式结合起来，让它能越做越大，成本也不会太高。
But most of our obsession is the problem and like how to couple that into a business so that it gets bigger over time so it doesn't cost too much.
让我把这个翻译成一个预算问题。
Let me translate that into a budget question.
比如说，你说清洁水是个很好的登月计划。
So if you said here clean water is a great one, great you know moonshot.
我记得你说的是每升一分钱，对吧？
I need what was it like a penny a liter you're like?
差不多每升一分钱，就能真正改变世界。
About a penny a liter to really change the world.
所以那是
So that's
一个伟大的登月计划。
a great moonshot.
如果我说，让我们转向……
If if I said let's turn...
你们已经有团队在做这个了吗？
Have you already got a team on that one?
那是……
Is that...
我们有
We have
过去有过团队在做这些。
had teams on them in the past.
是的。
Yes.
我们现在确实有一个团队在做这个。
We do have a team on it right now.
那么这是不是……
So is that...
哪个更大？
What's bigger?
他们的AI账单还是工资账单？
Their AI bill or their salary bill?
目前还是
It's still
工资账单更大，但说实话我不知道具体大多少。
their salary in that particular case, but I don't know by how much honestly.
所以我不确定具体比例，但我敢说他们绝对是创新过程中的合作伙伴。
So I I don't know what fraction it is for sure, but I would say they are absolutely teammates in the process of innovation.
这正是我在做的。
That's what I'm doing.
确实，
Fact,
你知道，我们一直在想办法自动化登月工厂的各个环节，这样我们就能更快、更高效。
you know, we are finding ways all the time to automate parts of the moonshot factory so we can go faster and be more efficient.
那你最好猜猜看，如果你非常专注于那个创新机器的效率，这里有个案例研究。
Your best guess then, you know, if you're you're hyper focused on the efficiency of that innovation machine, there's a case study.
现在他们的AI开支比人力开支要小。
Right now their AI bill is smaller than their headcount bill.
什么时候会达到五五开，AI占75%，然后到100%？
When's the day when it hits fifty fifty, 75% AI, and then a 100%?
嗯，首先，我不确定未来十年内会达到100%。
Well, first of all, I'm not sure any time in the next decade it's gonna be a 100% Okay.
因为我觉得弄清楚要解决哪些问题，并确保这些问题以社会可接受的方式得到解决，是问题的重要部分。
Because I think figuring out which problems to solve and making sure they're being solved in societally acceptable ways is an important part of the problem.
如果你需要有分销商帮忙销售，如果你必须让产品以社区觉得可接受的方式落地，那么至少在未来一二十年里，人类在这个过程中是必不可少的。
If you need to have distributors helping to sell this, if you have to land it in communities in ways that that community feels are acceptable to them, like you need humans as part of that process for at least the next decade or two.
好的。
Okay.
所以……
So...
但你看，只要效率高，它就会发展得很快。
But look, it'll go as as fast as is efficient.
我们不会为了用算力而用算力。
Like we're not gonna use compute just to use compute.
确实有人因为觉得启动智能体很酷就去做。
And there are people who are spinning up agents because it feels powerful to spin up agents.
但启动一个智能体和真正从中获益是两回事。
But there is a difference between spinning up an agent actually getting benefit.
Astro，萨利姆，请讲。
Astro, go ahead Salim.
我认为登月计划可以分为两类。
I think of moonshots as two classes.
一类是痛点，解决饥饿、解决教育、解决其他问题。
One is pain points, solve hunger, solve education, solve whatever.
然后还有那种有抱负的登月计划。
And then there's the aspirational moonshots.
比如马斯克，带我们去火星，对吧？
Elon, get us to Mars, right?
解决衰老问题，等等。
Solve aging, etcetera.
你的登月计划工作中，有多少是专注于前者，多少是专注于后者？
How much of your work in moonshots focuses on one versus the other?
是均衡分配，还是只专注于问题那一侧？
Is it an equal balance or do you focus only on the problem side?
我的意思是，如果你在X工作，我会说，天哪，Lynn，我不能两个都要吗？
I mean if you worked at X, what I would say is, geez, Lynn, can't I have both?
我希望你找到你能做的最大胆的事情，那些能在十年内从疯狂想法变成不那么疯狂的想法的事情。
I want you to find the most audacious things you can work on that we can move from crazy idea to not crazy idea in less than a decade.
然后再用不到十年的时间，从一个不算疯狂的想法变成一个持久的业务。
And then from not crazy idea to an enduring business in less than another decade.
所以如果你想去火星，我会先说，好，我在听。
So if you want to go to Mars, I would start with okay, I'm listening.
你怎么在不到二十年的时间里把它变成一个持久的业务？
How is that in less than two decades gonna be an enduring business?
不是说不可能，但这就是我的检验标准。
Not saying it can't but that would be my test.
所以你在时间上给自己设限，只是为了让我们能感觉到，在接下来的十年里，我们能否可靠地解决这个问题，并孵化出一些东西，这成了主要标准。
So time, you're constraining yourself just so can give a sense of if we can reliably work on this problem over this next decade and spin out something that becomes a main criteria.
因为这很有道理。
Because That makes sense.
因为我拿的是投资者的钱，我们的投资者是Alphabet，我必须告诉Alphabet，我用你们的钱在做什么，他们必须对我为他们创造的这种飞轮效应感到满意。
Because I'm getting money, our investor is Alphabet, I have to tell Alphabet, here's what I'm doing with your money and they have to feel good about the sort of flywheel that I'm creating for them.
Astro，我觉得特别有意思的一点是，你淘汰了绝大多数刚开始的想法。
Astro, one of the things I find fascinating is the fact that you kill the vast majority of the ideas that are started.
给我们一些数据吧，启动的项目总数和毕业的项目相比，是不是不到1%？
Just to give us some numbers here, total number of projects started versus graduated, it's under 1%?
我觉得接近2%，但可以说在过去十六年里，大约有2000个项目获得了代号，其中毕业的有35到50个，具体取决于怎么算。
I think it's close to 2%, but call it like 2,000 things over the last sixteen years that got code names of which we've had, a little bit depending on how you count, of 35 to 50 graduates.
那来谈谈这个想法，就是尽早扼杀你的宝贝的重要性。
So talk about this idea of the importance of killing your babies early.
嗯...
Well...
不是他真正的孩子。
Not not not his actual babies.
对。
Yes.
我要用猴子基座的比喻。
I I I'm gonna use I'm gonna use the monkey and pedestal analogy.
请讲。
Please.
我知道你很清楚。
I know you know well.
是的。
Yes.
但想象一下，我们所有人一起在做一个登月计划。
But imagine we were working on a moonshot together, all of us.
我们想让一只猴子站在十英尺高的台座上背诵莎士比亚。
And we're trying to get a monkey to stand on the top of a 10 foot pedestal and recite Shakespeare.
我们应该先做哪一步？
Which should we do first?
训练猴子还是先建台座？
Train the monkey or build the pedestal?
说实话，如果情况没那么极端，建台座这个选择真的特别诱人。
It is so weirdly tempting if we're being honest with each other in something where it's not that extreme a situation to build the pedestal.
因为那样你就完成了一半，还能再拿到一轮融资。
Because then you're half done and you can get another round of funding.
留得青山在，不怕没柴烧。
Live to fight another day.
你可以去找老板说，能给我升职吗？
You can go to your boss and say, can I have a promotion?
我已经完成一半了，兄弟。
I'm half done, man.
能给我发点奖金吗？
Can I can I have a bonus?
这就是推动世界运转的东西，但也让我抓狂。
This is what drives the world and it drives me crazy.
所以我们在X公司说的是，别管那个底座。
So what we say at X is forget the pedestal.
只专注于训练猴子。
Only focus on the monkey.
如果你能把猴子训练好，底座随时都能建。
If you can train the monkey, we can always build the pedestal afterwards.
如果猴子训练不了，那还好我们没浪费Alphabet的钱和我们的时间在这上面。
And if you can't train the monkey, thank God we didn't waste Alphabet's money and our time on that.
所以并不是我想输。
And so it's not that I want to lose.
我就像是失败王国的太子，但那不是因为我喜欢失败。
I am like the crown prince of failure, but it's not because I like to fail.
因为当你对的时候，你什么都学不到。
It's because you learn nothing when you're right.
只有当你错的时候，你才能学到东西。
You only learn things when you're wrong.
我太喜欢了。
I love it.
失败
Crown
王国的太子。
prince of failure.
太喜欢了。
Love it.
所以，如果你接受——听起来你是接受的——那就是说，登月计划基本上就是一个学习的过程，那我们接下来要进行的冒险，完全取决于我们学习的速度。这意味着，如果我们在学习的当下，因为发现自己的世界观在某些方面是错的而感到难过，那我们就会无意识地，甚至是有意识地，去回避那个时刻。
And and so if you accept, which it sounds like you do, that that's true and moonshots is a process almost entirely taken up with learning, then we're gonna go on an adventure which is defined entirely by how fast we learn, which means if we in any way feel bad in the moment where we learn because we had a model of the world that turned out to be wrong in some way, then we will unconsciously or maybe even consciously avoid that moment.
所以我们要消除对失败的污名化。
So we're gonna destigmatize failure.
如果你在X工作，我需要你和我一起，致力于优化X的投资组合。
If you work at X, I need you to be on the mission with me to optimize X's portfolio.
并不是说我不希望传送器能成功，彼得，他正在为我做这个项目，但我想尽可能高效地弄清楚它到底能不能行。
It's not that I don't want the teleporter to work, Peter, who's working on this for me, but I wanna find out as efficiently as possible if it's gonna work.
我不希望你们否认自己其实特别希望传送器能成功，然后我们花了五年时间，投入了几千万美元，结果它还是不太顺利，变成了一个僵尸项目。
I don't want you in denial about the fact that you just really want the the teleporter to work and we go for like five years and we spend tens of millions of dollars and it's still kinda going sideways and it's a zombie.
在座有多少人曾经在某个僵尸项目上花了至少五年时间，而且你知道它至少有两三年已经是僵尸状态了？
How many people of you here have spent at least five years on something that was a zombie where you knew for at least two or three years that it was a zombie?
最糟糕的失败是什么？
What's the worst failure?
就是那种失败，你当时觉得‘这太疯狂了’，结果发现，你知道吗，那真的很蠢。
Like the failure where you were like, that's really crazy and turns out, you know what, that really was really dumb.
哦，我们有过很多这样的经历。
Oh, we've had lots of those.
我们现在就有一个，几乎肯定是错的。
We we have one right now which is almost certainly wrong.
如果它被证明是对的，那物理学就要出问题了。
It would be a problem for physics if it turned out to be right.
所以……
So...
但它确实在起作用。
But it's it's working.
我们不知道它在实验室里为什么能工作。
We do not know why it's working in the lab.
我们正在拼命地找我们自欺欺人的原因，好把它干掉。
We're working ferociously hard to find why we're kidding ourselves so that we can kill it off.
但这已经是我们试图发现这种所谓的冷聚变时刻的第五个月了，我讨厌这个说法。
But it's about five months into trying to discover this sort of like cold fusion moment, which I hate.
冷聚变，它既不冷，也不是聚变。
Cold fusion, it's not cold and it's not fusion.
不过……
But...
没关系。
It's okay.
反正它也没成功。
It didn't work anyway.
抱歉。
Sorry.
我们可不想成为那样的团队。
Don't wanna be that group.
我们正努力成为相反的那一类。
We are trying to be the opposite
你会告诉我们这东西是什么吗？
You're of gonna tell us what this thing is?
不。
Nope.
哎呀，别这样嘛。
Oh, come on.
好吧。
Okay.
如果成功了，我们会告诉你的。
If it works out, we'll tell you about it.
行。
Alright.
所以，现在有一个让我非常不舒服的事情。
So, have one right now that's like makes me deeply uncomfortable
而且非常……所以，
And deeply So,
好的。
Okay.
这里有几个观众提问。
Couple audience questions here.
Rich问：有没有哪些你过去拒绝的登月计划，现在因为世界问题变化而让你后悔，今天你会去追求它们？
Rich asks, are there any moonshots that you regret denying in the past as our world's problems have changed that you would pursue today?
我的意思是，哦。
I mean Oh.
我们错了很多次。
We were wrong a bunch.
所以，我本来想对这个问题说不，但我不想让你误以为我们从未犯过错。
So, I'm about to say no to that question, but I do not want that to be confused with we've never been wrong.
我们经常犯错。
We're wrong all the time.
但我……
But I
但问题是，我后悔吗？
think the question I Do I regret it though?
但是你有没有……
But do you...
但那是你拒绝过的东西，你从来没有……对。
But it was something that you reject, you never Exactly.
试试。
Try.
好的。
Okay.
所以我想说清楚。
So I wanna be really clear.
如果我们误判了一个项目是登月计划，投入多年后发现不是，代价非常高。
The cost for a false positive where we believe it's a moonshot, we run it for many years, and then it turns out not to be is very high.
可能高达数千万美元。
Many tens of millions of dollars potentially.
哇。
Wow.
而漏掉一个真正的登月项目的成本是零。
The cost of a false negative where it actually is a moonshot but I rejected it is zero.
只要相信世界上有无数的问题和无数创造性的解决方案，我们随时可以重新从登月项目的分布中抽取。
As long as you believe that there's an infinite number of problems in the world and an infinite number of creative solutions, we can always just go draw again from the distribution of moonshots.
拒绝一个项目对我们来说毫无损失，所以即使我们判断错了，我也不会后悔。
It costs us nothing to say So I say no and have no regrets even about the stuff we were wrong about.
我们可能拒绝得还不够快。
We probably don't do it fast enough.
保罗问，材料科学领域的登月项目怎么样？
Paul asks what about moonshots material sciences?
你觉得那个领域有哪些特别有前景的方向值得关注？
Do you see any particular promising fields to inquire in that area?
嗯，顺便说一句，我对新材料领域非常兴奋。
Well, I mean, side rant, I'm super excited about the new material space.
而且我觉得大家还没想清楚，因为现在对这项技术太狂热了，每个人都觉得，然后我们就能把它做成生意。
And I think people haven't played out in their minds because there's like such a fervor about the technology and everyone's like, and then we'll make a business out of it.
这比听起来要难得多。
That's harder than it sounds.
看看我们花了多少世纪才真正把钢炼好。
Look how many centuries it took for us to really refine steel.
钢彻底改变了世界，但那是它在很多方面实现工业化之后的事了。
Steel completely changed the world, but not until it was industrialized in a bunch of ways.
有很多新材料，如果你能造出一片室温超导体，那会很酷，诺贝尔奖，耶。
There are a lot of new materials that if you could make one flake of room temperature superconductor, that would be pretty cool, Nobel Prize, yay.
但那不是一门生意。
That is not a business.
那只是生意的头5%。
That's like the first 5% of a business.
你怎么每天生产几千吨那种材料？
How do you make thousands of tons a day of that material?
怎么才能让它有很高的延展性，这样就能绕成线圈之类的？
How do you make it with very high ductility so that you could put it into like winding wires and things like that?
所有这些工作，也就是新材料或其他领域剩下的95%的功夫，才是真正实现登月计划所需要的。
All of the stuff that it takes, the other 95% of the work for new materials or otherwise, that's what it really takes to make a moonshot.
所以我对新材料这类东西非常兴奋，但我更关注的是人们关注的那座山之后的那座山，也就是当这些材料出现时，我们如何扩大生产规模，而不仅仅是首先如何发现它们。
So I'm super excited about lots of things like new materials, but I'm kind of focused on the hill after the one that people are focused on, which is how would we scale these up as they show up in the world, not just how do we find them in the first place.
好的。
Alright.
最后一个来自观众的快速提问，希望也能快速回答。
Last quick question from the audience and a quick answer hopefully.
其他公司一直试图复制X，但都失败了。
So other companies keep trying to replicate X, and fail.
好的。
Alright.
你觉得他们最难复制、而大多数外部观察者仍然低估的一点是什么？
What's the single hardest piece for them to replicate that you think most outside observers still underestimate?
我真的很相信我之前说的，那就是你必须
I really believe it's what I said, which is you have to
有一个领导团队，他们极度专注于打造一种文化，让人们能够以最有效的方式推动激进创新。
have a leadership team that is maniacally focused on engineering a culture in which people can show up in the ways that tend to drive radical innovation most efficiently.
如果允许我打个广告，就像你们有登月播客一样，我们也有一个登月播客。
And if I can make a plug, just like you have a moonshot podcast, we have a moonshot podcast.
现在已经出了两季，你可以听到那些经历过这个过程的人的真实故事。
There are two seasons out now where you can actually hear about people who went through the process.
所以这不是我在空谈登月，而是真正实践登月的人在分享他们的成功经验。
So this is not me blah blah blah ing about moonshots, it's actually the moonshot takers talking about their successes Where
他们在哪里能找到？在YouTube上吗？
did they find it on YouTube?
你只要搜索“Moonshot Factory”或“Moonshot Podcast”，在任何播客平台上都能找到。
If you just search for moonshot factory, moonshot podcast, you can find it anywhere you get podcasts.
我鼓励大家去听，因为我觉得你会听到的正是我所说的那种文化，那种鼓励人们去做真正推动创新的事情的微观环境。
And I would encourage people to listen to this because I think what you'll hear is a reflection of exactly what I said, which is the culture, the microcosm which encourages people to do the things that actually drive innovation.
这很明显。
It's it's obvious.
你们都知道是什么。
You all know what it is.
就是为那些探索者创造空间，一个受保护的空间。
It's making that space, that protected space for those explorers.
这才是真正困难的地方。
That's the really hard part.
我想说几句来回答这个问题。
I would like to say something to answer that question.
你建立了一种机制，让母公司长时间不干预你们。
You have created a mechanism where you've structured it such that the mother ship has left you alone for a long period of time.
我从未见过其他公司这样做。
I've never seen another company do it.
我见过的其他公司，时间一长，免疫系统就忍不住伸出它那黏糊糊的小手，把它抓回去，然后总是搞砸。
Every other company I've ever seen over time, the immune system cannot resist, reaches out its sticky little hands and snatches it back and then messes it up invariably.
所以恭喜你坚持了这么久，也恭喜谷歌的高管们，他们放手了，并且有纪律地让它保持在边缘地带，因为所有奇迹都发生在那里。
So congratulations to you for having lasted this long and congratulations to the Google execs who've left it and had the discipline to leave it on the edge because that's where all the magic happens.
大家掌声欢迎，阿斯特罗·泰勒先生。
Everybody give it up, sir Astro Teller.
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