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人们经常问我，当外部世界不再提供确定性时，你如何为人们提供确定性？
People ask me all the time, how do you provide certainty for people when the external world no longer offers certainty?
外部没有确定性。
There is no external certainty.
所以当这些工作被颠覆时，人们会依靠什么？
So when those jobs are disrupted, what will people hang on to?
答案是
The answer is
地球上最著名的人物之一，托尼·罗宾斯。
One of the most famous people on the planet, Tony Robbins.
伟大的托尼·罗宾斯在这里，我的朋友。
The great Tony Robbins is here, my man.
只要人们发自内心地渴望某件事，并愿意为之付诸行动，就没有他们无法实现的愿望。
There's nothing that people want that they can't make happen if they really want it with heart and soul, that they wanna do something about it.
这种席卷社会的变革，不仅仅是关于失业的威胁。
This kind of change hitting society isn't just a threat about unemployment.
这是一种对神经系统的冲击。
It's it's a threat about a nervous system shock.
人工智能是一种召唤。
AI is the call.
新技术召唤我们成为更好的自己。
New technology is the call for us to become more.
再次，从生存转向精神，从满足于现状转向更伟大的目标。
Again, to move from survival to spirit, to move from settling to something greater.
人工智能将带来一种难以置信的变革速度，但它并不必然与幸福相关。
AI is is gonna create this rate of change that is just beyond belief, and it doesn't correlate with happiness necessarily.
它需要被转化为幸福。
It needs to be turned into happiness.
托尼，几十年来你一直为数百万人提供指导。
Tony, you've been coaching millions of people over decades.
对吧？
Right?
回顾那段时光后，你对这个世界是更乐观了，还是更悲观了？
After kind of looking back over that time, are you more optimistic about the world or less?
这就是我对乐观的看法。
Here's what I think about optimism.
我认为
I think
这才是真正的登月计划，各位。
Now that's the moonshot, ladies and gentlemen.
各位，欢迎来到登月计划。
Everybody, welcome to moonshots.
今天我在这里，与一位挚友同台，他是全球排名第一的生活与商业教练——托尼·罗宾斯。
I'm here today with a dear friend, the world's number one life and business coach, Tony Robbins.
他已为超过一亿人提供过指导，遍及195个国家。
He's coached more than a 100,000,000 people across a 195 countries.
除了教练工作，他还拥有超过114家公司，业务规模达120亿美元。
Beyond his coaching, he's the owner of in more than a 114 companies with $12,000,000,000 in business.
他还是80家私募股权公司的投资者，资产管理规模达110亿美元。
He is an investor in private equity across 80 private equity companies with $11,000,000,000 AUM.
他曾为总统、财富500强首席执行官和全球领袖提供领导力与人类潜能方面的建议。
He's advised presidents, Fortune 500 CEOs, global leaders on leadership and human potential.
personally，托尼是我最好的朋友之一。
Personally, Tony is one of my best friends.
我们合著了一本登上《纽约时报》畅销书榜首的著作。
We've coauthored a number one New York Times selling book.
我们共同创立了两家公司：Fountain Life 和 Life Force。
We've cofounded two companies, Fountain Life and Life Force.
在我看来，他是当今世界上最具人文精神的伟大人物之一。
And in my opinion, he is one of the greatest humanitarians on the planet alive today.
托尼，欢迎你，老兄。
Tony, welcome, pal.
谢谢，老兄。
Thanks, buddy.
能和你在一起真好。
It's great to be with you.
是啊。
Yeah.
当然。
For sure.
你知道吗，十年前我们开始了一场对话，虽然开始得有点早，但我们在讨论我们所预见的技术社会主义时代，没错。
You know, I remember a decade ago, we started a conversation, and we started too early, but a conversation about what we saw as the age of coming technological socialism Yes.
在这种时代，技术——而不是政府——将开始照顾个人，这可能对我们的心理、安全感以及自我激励方式产生影响。
Where technology, not the government, but technology would start to take care of individuals and the implications that that might have on our psychology, on our sense of safety, on how we motivate ourselves.
正如你所知，我最近和埃隆做了一期播客。
And as you know, I did a podcast recently with with Elon.
在那次对话中，他说了一些话，我想第一时间和你讨论这些。
And and during that conversation, he said a few things that I wanted my the first person I wanted to speak to about this was you.
他明确表示，预计在未来三到五年内，人工智能和机器人将彻底取代所有人类劳动。
You know, he said literally that he expects in the next three to five years that AI and robotics would fundamentally displace all human labor.
我认为，媒体、政府等各方一直讨论的时间框架是二十年的适应周期，即这种变化需要多长时间才能完成。
And I think the time frame that folks have been talking about in the media, in government, across the board has been more of a twenty year adaptation cycle of how long that would take.
人类确实非常适应变化，但我认为以这样的速度是不行的。
And and humans are amazingly adaptable, but I don't think at that speed.
我认为，这种变革对社会的冲击不仅仅是失业的威胁。
I think, you know, this kind of change hitting society isn't just a threat about unemployment.
它更是一种神经系统层面的冲击。
It's it's a threat about a nervous system shock.
是的。
Yeah.
那我们从这里开始吧。
So let's let's start there.
你如何看待这一点？
How do you, you know, how do you respond to that?
你有什么担忧？
What are your concerns?
当环境变化的速度超过我们适应的能力时，人们就会恐慌。
Well, when the environment changes faster than our ability to adapt, people panic.
当人们恐慌时，会产生各种情绪反应，包括愤怒、暴怒，有时甚至暴力。
When people panic, they have a variety of emotional reactions, including anger and rage and sometimes violence.
如果你回顾历史上的变革，我可以一直追溯到卢德分子，你知道，在19世纪的英国，他们发明了这些机器，取代了大约70%的工作。
And if you look at the history of change, I can go back all the way to to Luddites, you know, if you remember studying your history in the eighteen hundreds in England, and they created these machines that displaced about 70% of the jobs.
那人们做了什么？
And what did people do?
他们发动了暴动。
They they rioted.
你知道，成千上万的人参与其中。
You know, you had thousands of people.
他们拿着锤子攻击并摧毁这些机器。
You had them attacking with hammers to destroy these machines.
他们炸毁设施，也就是工厂。
You had them blowing up facilities, you know, factories.
工厂工人和老板遭到枪击和死亡威胁。
You had factory people, owners being shot and being threatened to be killed.
工厂老板派人出去开枪射击人们。
You had factory owners putting people out there shooting people.
英国政府在这一五年周期的第一年通过了一项法律，规定破坏机器将处以死刑。
The government in England passed a law in the first year of this kind of five year cycle, basically, saying that if you destroyed a machine, it was capital punishment.
他们当众绞死了24人，试图制止这种行为。
They hung 24 people publicly to try to stop this.
他们派出了12000人来镇压他们。
They put out 12,000 people to fight them.
这发生在拿破仑战争期间的相同背景下。
It's during same views from the Napoleon Wars.
因此，这种过渡绝非必然平稳。
So it there's no guarantee of this being a smooth transition.
现在，我不是一个反动的人。
Now I'm not a reactionary person.
当你听到三到五年时，就会引起你的注意。
And when you hear three to five years, it gets your attention.
你知道，埃隆是当今最聪明的人之一，人们可以对时间线提出争议。
You know, Elon's one of the smartest people alive, and people can argue about the timeline.
但雷·库兹韦尔，我们两人的共同朋友，他已经谈论2029年这个时间点大约二十年了，他是我所知道的最准确的预测者。
But Ray Kurzweil, a mutual friend of both of ours, you know, he's been talking about, you know, 2029 for probably twenty years, and he's been the most accurate forecaster I know.
即使你去看辛顿，这位人工智能的奠基人，他的时间表更长。
Even if you go to, you know, Hinton, who's, you know, the founder of AI himself, he has a longer version.
他认为是2030年或2040年。
He goes 2030, 2040.
所以我认为三到十年是我的猜测。
So I'd say three to ten years is my guess.
但我知道，在那个时期，并非所有行业都会消失或发生改变。
But, you know, I don't think all business will be gone or changed at that time period.
但真正的问题是，你如何为人们提供确定性？
But the question really is, you know, how do you provide certainty for people?
对吧？
Right?
嗯，没错。
And Yeah.
人们经常问我，当外部世界不再提供确定性时，你如何为人们提供确定性？
People ask me all the time, how do provide certainty for people when the external world no longer offers certainty?
我认为你根本不需要去应对这个问题，因为这本来就是事实。
And I would argue that you don't have to deal with it at all because it's already true.
我的意思是，根本不存在外部的确定性。
What I mean is there is no external certainty.
外部的确定性完全是一种幻觉。
You know, external certainty is a total illusion.
你只是租用了确定性，因为你有一份特定的工作，或某种特定的收入来源。
You have rented certainty because you have a certain business or you have a certain category of a certain income.
你拥有某些特定的人际关系。
You have certain relationships.
但你知道，比如新冠疫情，一夜之间就改变了这一切。
But, you know, a COVID, for example, instantly changed all of that overnight for people.
你走在街上被车撞了，可能六个月甚至永远都走不了路。
You you walk across the street and get hit by a car and, you know, you can't walk for six months or forever.
这类事情一直是我们生活的一部分。
Things like this are always been a part of our lives.
所以我认为，真正要做的的是打破确定性的幻觉，找到人们内在的确定性。
So I think it's really dispelling the illusion of certainty and finding people and the ability to get that internal certainty.
看。
Look.
神经科学告诉我们，和人工智能一样，我们的大脑是预测机器。
Neuroscience is teaching us that same as AI, our brains are predictive machines.
它不断试图预测将要发生的事情，并缩小预测与现实之间的差距。
It's constantly trying to predict what's gonna happen and close the gap between what it predicts and what reality is.
当预测与现实不一致时，那种疯狂、愤怒和恐惧就会出现。
And when it's doesn't match up, that's when that craziness, that anger, that fear shows up.
所以它会在大规模上显现出来。
So it's gonna show up on a large scale.
我认为，作为领导者，我们的任务是预见到这一点，回顾历史。
And our job, I think, as leaders is to anticipate that, to look at history.
因为这不仅仅是卢德分子的问题。
Because it's not just the Luddites.
你可以说，十五年后，又出现了另一种机器，比如脱粒机，用来淘汰小麦。
You can say fifteen years later, that happened with the Thrashers, another machine that was used, you know, to get rid of wheat.
十五年后，人们有了同样的反应。
And they had the same reaction fifteen years later.
在二十世纪三十年代，1931年、1932年，共产主义兴起，人们不得不被镇压。
In the nineteen thirties, 3031, '32, communism came and people had to be put down.
过去，政府曾过度反应，试图阻止这一切。
Governments in the past have overreacted to this to try to stop it.
这一直是一个非常艰难的阶段。
It's been a very difficult stage.
所以，如果我们打算完成这个过渡，嗯。
So if we're gonna make the transition Mhmm.
我认为我们必须预见即将发生的事情。
I think we have to anticipate what's coming.
我记得十年前我曾与奥巴马总统谈过这个问题。
And I remember I I talked to president Obama about this ten years ago.
在他任期即将结束时，我问他：你打算怎么做？
And I right at the end of his office, and I was saying, what are you gonna do?
因为我举了个例子。
Because I I give the example.
我说，你知道，你接手的经济中，有800万个就业岗位在2008年消失了，对吧。
I said, you know, you inherited an economy where, you know, 8,000,000 jobs disappeared, right, in 2008.
全球经济也遭到重创。
And the world economy was smashed up.
我说，看看这个。
Well, I said, look at this.
这些自动驾驶汽车，至少在未来十年到十五年内会普及。
These self driving cars, they're gonna be around at least sometime in the next ten to fifteen years.
它们将取代卡车司机，也会取代开优步的任何人。
And they're gonna displace truck drivers, and they're gonna displace, you know, anybody that's driving an Uber.
谁还会雇佣一个每天最多只能工作八小时的卡车司机？
Who's gonna hire a truck driver that you have can work eight hours a day maximum?
他们的医疗保险成本很高。
They cost a lot of money for their health insurance.
费用一直在上涨。
It's always going up.
他们还会抱怨。
They complain.
而你可以拥有一辆每天24小时运行的卡车，保险费用可能更低，不会犯错，也不用支付医疗费用，还能折旧资产。
When you can have, you know, a truck that drives twenty four hours a day, probably cheaper insurance, doesn't make the mistakes, don't have to pay the health care, and you can depreciate the asset.
所以我说，仅就这一类岗位而言——卡车司机、优步司机、出租车司机——就涉及800万个职位。
So I said, if you just take that category alone, those truck drivers, Uber drivers, taxi drivers, that's 8,000,000 jobs.
我说，那么你们在政府层面，塔蒂尼，正在做些什么来帮助人们转型呢？
And I said, so what are you guys doing, you know, at the governmental level, Tantini, is to retool people?
我永远忘不了他说：‘托尼，这不会这么快发生。’
And I'll never get he said, he goes, Tony, it's not gonna happen that fast.
我说，尊敬的总统先生，如果纵观历史，我们可以说一百五十年前，80%的人都是农民。
And I said, well, with all due respect, mister president, if you if you look at history, we could say a hundred and fifty years ago, 80% of us were farmers.
现在只剩下3%，但我们却养活了全世界。
Now it's 3% we feed the world.
没有人想过会出现‘网页管理员’这样的新工作，而如今，你可能会从事像‘AI专家’之类的新职业，这些工作以前根本不存在。
No one thought of a new job called being a webmaster or these days, you know, you'd do something different like AI master or whatever the case may be, those jobs weren't even thought of.
所以我知道会涌现出新的工作，但那是一百五十年的转变。
So I know there'll be new jobs, but that was a hundred and fifty year shift.
而这次变革的速度，才是真正的挑战。
The speed of this is the challenge.
是的。
Yeah.
他说，托尼，我们所接触的所有人都认为，这不可能这么快发生。
And he said, Tony, all the people we're talking to, it's just not gonna happen that fast.
我前几天还在想，因为那不过是十年前的事。
And I'm I'm thinking about it just the other day because it's just ten years ago.
你和我都清楚，无论是Waymo还是埃隆，自动驾驶正在全球各大城市成真。
And you and I both know between Waymo and obviously Elon, it's happening in cities all across the world.
它还不是标准，但会不会很快成为标准呢？
It's not the standard yet, but will it be sometime soon?
答案是肯定的。
The answer is yes.
当这些工作被颠覆时，人们会依靠什么？
So when those jobs are disrupted, what will people hang on to?
答案是我们必须给他们两样东西。
The answer is we have to give them two things.
首先，帮助他们建立作为创造者的身份。
First, help them develop an identity as a creator.
这就是我的意思。
Here's what I mean by that.
你每天接触到的大多数人都是压力重重的。
Most people that you talk to in daily life are stressed.
我经常听到人们说：我太紧张了。
It is the number I'm so stressed.
有太多事情我知道该怎么做。
There's so much I know I know what to do.
我为这么多事情感到如此焦虑。
I'm so stressed about so stressed about that.
如今，心理健康问题太多了。
So much about mental health these days.
你真的要告诉我，现在的生活比你曾经和老虎争夺食物时还要紧张吗？
Are you really gonna tell me that life is more stressful today than when, you know, you had a fight for your food with a tiger?
我的意思是，这太荒谬了。
I mean, it's absurd.
或者在中世纪，你可能会染上某种疾病，整个社区都因此覆灭。
Or during the Middle Ages where, you know, you might catch something where, you know, entire community went down.
但我们觉得现在更紧张，因为我们今天都是管理者。
But we think it's more stressful because we're managers today.
我们试图管理太多事情。
We try to manage so much.
我们生来并不是为了管理自己的处境。
We were not made to manage our circumstances.
我们生来是为了创造。
We're made to create.
当你在管理处境时，你不会感到任何掌控感。
When you're managing circumstances, you don't feel any sense of agency.
你不会觉得自己能做主。
You don't feel like you're in charge.
大多数人的压力都源于一种感觉：事件在控制你，而不是你在控制事件。
And most human stress comes from the fact that you feel events are controlling you versus you're controlling events.
所以好好想想。
So think about it.
有什么东西创造了我们。
Something created us.
你可以称它为上帝。
You can call it god.
你可以称它为宇宙。
You can call it the universe.
你可以叫它任何你想叫的名字。
You can call it whatever you wanna call it.
但我们是由某种东西创造的，并且被赋予了创造的能力。
But we were created by something, and we're given the ability to create.
当你按照自己的方式成为生命的创造者时，外部世界的变化就无关紧要了。
When you become a creator of life on your terms, it doesn't matter what changes in the outside world.
还有另一点。
Now there's one other piece.
你可能会问，实际上，一个人需要具备哪些技能才能做得好？
You might say, practically, like, what skills would somebody need to be able to do well?
因为我一直在想，你知道，我和你一样，也有孩子。
Because I've been thinking, you know, I've got just like you, I've got kids.
我有五个孩子，现在还有五个孙子孙女。
I got five kids and five grandkids now.
我有一个52岁的女儿，多亏了新冠疫情，我又有了一个四岁的女儿。
I have a, you know, 52 year old daughter and thanks to COVID, I have a four year old daughter.
新冠疫情对我而言是好事。
COVID was good to me.
但我会想到我的孙子孙女和年幼的孩子们，心想，天啊，根据你读的不同研究，传统工作有80%、50%、30%可能会消失。
But I think about my grandkids and my younger kids and I say, man, you know, 80%, 50%, 30%, you know, depending on which studies you read of traditional jobs are gonna disappear.
你瞧，伊冯娜说全部都会消失。
You know, Yvonne's saying all of them.
不管你怎么看，世界都将发生根本性的变化。
No matter how you slice it, the world's gonna change radically.
我该如何武装他们？
How do I arm them?
嗯。
Mhmm.
对吧？
Right?
不仅仅是给钱或资源。
Not just with money or resources.
我该如何让他们拥有自信，知道他们能参与这场游戏？
How do I arm them to have self esteem to know they can play the game?
答案是培养一种身份认同：我就是那种总能找到办法的人。
And the answer is developing an identity that says, I'm the kind of person that always finds the way.
我是那种能在任何事情中发现意义并赋予其力量的人。
I'm the person that can find meaning in anything and empowering meaning.
我知道如何用我的身体来产生确定性，而不是试图从外部世界获取，那是一种幻觉。
I know how to use my body to produce certainty, not try to get it from the outside world, which is an illusion.
我有自我认同。
I have an identity.
我是那个让事情发生的人。
I'm the person that makes it happen.
如果你想想兰斯·阿姆斯特朗的认同感，比如：我总是能找到通往胜利之路的人。
If you think about like Lance Armstrong's identity of like, I'm the guy that always finds the way to victory.
当他被告知肺部、大脑和睾丸都患有癌症时，大多数人会说：我放弃了。
Well, when he was told he had cancer in his lungs, in his brain, and in his testicles, most people would say, I'm out.
他却说：我会找到答案。
He's like, I'm gonna find the answer.
他确实做到了。
He did.
如今，同样的身份认同信念让他使用药物来参赛。
Now the same belief system of identity made him use drugs to compete.
这种做法在某种程度上损害了他的职业生涯和身份。
That kinda hurt his career and his identity in some way.
但身份认同才是掌控一切的关键。
But identity is what controls it.
然后是技能，我就说到这里。
Then there's the skill, and I'll finish with this.
我教给我的每个孩子、每个合作伙伴、每个我有关系的人，有三项技能需要持续精通。
There's three skills I teach every one of my kids, anybody I'm in business with, anybody I relationship with, to continuously master.
如果你掌握了这三项技能，无论AI如何发展都不重要。
If you master these three skills, it doesn't matter what happens with AI.
一点都不重要。
It doesn't matter.
你依然会属于胜利的一方，因为最终，你不会被AI取代。
You'll still be a part of what wins because in the end, you're not gonna be replaced by AI.
你会被那些善用AI的其他人取代。
You're gonna be replaced by someone else that use AI.
这就是关键所在。
And here's the bottom line.
模式一，第一个技能是模式识别。
Pattern one, the skill number one is pattern recognition.
你在这方面是个天才。
You're a genius at this.
你和我几十年来一直是朋友，从不空谈。
You and I have been friends for decades on not blowing smoke.
你和我都非常擅长及早识别模式并理解其含义。
You and I both are damn good at recognizing patterns early on and seeing what they mean.
当你识别出一个模式时，它就能消除恐惧。
Now when you recognize a pattern, it eliminates fear.
人们感到恐惧，是因为某件事看起来前所未见。
People are fearful because something looks like this has never happened before.
这种事以前从未发生过。
There's nothing like this.
但总会有类似的事情发生。
There's always something like this.
你知道吗？
You know?
历史并不相同，但却有相似之处。
History is not the same, but it rhymes.
你知道，我们经常听到的那句话。
You know, the phrase we hear so often.
所以，一旦你识别出自己在情感上、身体上、财务上，或市场周期中的模式，你就不再害怕了。
So it's like once you recognize the pattern in yourself emotionally or physically or the pattern financially or the pattern of cycles of of of markets, you're no longer fearful.
但第二项技能是模式运用。
But the second skill is pattern utilization.
想想看。
Now think about it.
是什么让人类从恐惧中生活、四处奔逃，成为狩猎采集者，勉强获取食物，转变为定居下来，建立家庭、社区、城市和国家？我们学会运用的一个模式就是季节。
What changed humanity from living in fear and running from one place to another, you know, being hunter gatherers trying to hopefully get our food to staying in one place and being able to build a family, a community, a city, a nation, one pattern recognition that we learned to use, and that is the seasons.
在我们理解季节之前，你可能在错误的时间做了正确的事，结果却一无所获。
Until we understood the seasons, you could do the right thing at the wrong time, and you have nothing.
冬天播种，无论你多么努力，都不会有收获。
Planting in the winter, no matter how hard hard you work, doesn't work.
一旦我们明白了这一点，哇，我们可以在这里播种，在炎热的夏天加以保护，收获后留一些过冬，这就是我们能够走到今天的原因。
So once we learn that, wow, we could plant here, we protect during the hot summer, we reap and keep some up for the winter, that's how we came to be able to be where we are.
一旦你识别出金融模式、商业模式、技术模式，你就不再恐惧。
Well, once you recognize financial patterns, business patterns, patterns of technology, you're not fearful.
一旦你开始运用这些模式，你就会变得强大。
Once you start to use those patterns, you become powerful.
你现在开始能够更好地投资。
You now start to be able to invest better.
你将能够建立自己的事业。
You'll be able to build a business.
你将能够拥有更成熟、更充满激情、更有活力、更充满爱的关系。
You'll be able to have a more mature relationship and one that's more passionate, more alive, and more loving.
但我希望我的孩子们追求并不断强化的第三个目标是模式的创造。
But the third target that I all my kids I want them to move towards and constantly reinforcing is pattern creation.
所以请这样想，我就用这个来结束。
So think of this way and I'll finish with this.
如果你在学习演奏音乐，比如钢琴，通常之前已经有人创造出了令人愉悦、提升美感的模式，无论你怎么称呼它，都是美妙的。
If you're learning to play music, the piano, usually, someone else before you has come up with a pattern that's delightful, enhancing, whatever you wanna call it, beautiful.
你学习他们的模式，并且学习大量的他们的模式。
You learn their pattern, and you learn a lot of their patterns.
你不仅仅是识别这些模式。
And you don't just recognize it.
你还会运用它们。
You use it.
你能产生出惊人的结果。
You can produce the result that's amazing.
但随着时间推移，突然会有一个时刻，你已经演奏了足够多他人的模式，于是你突破了。
But as time goes by, suddenly, there'll be a point where you've played enough of other people's patterns that you come through.
而这时，你开始成为模式的创造者。
And now you become a creator of patterns.
如果你在商业或体育中这样做，你就会成为该行业的史上最佳。
And if you do that in business or in sports, you become the GOAT of that industry.
你会成为有史以来最伟大的人，因为你带来了前所未有的东西。
You become the greatest of all time because you're bringing something to the table that's never been there before.
所以，长话短说，但我觉得需要背景的是：人类对确定性的需求，但这种需求可以通过多种方式得到满足。
So the answer long answer, but I think it needs context is the need for certainty is in human beings, but that need can be met many different ways.
为了让他们成功，他们需要拥有不同的身份。
And in order to have them succeed, they need to have a different identity.
你必须明白，如果从现实角度来看，‘确定性’——即事物始终如一——实际上从未真正存在过。
You have to understand that this idea of certainty, just things being the same way, has never really been there if you look at it in reality.
但我可以创造内在的确定性。
But I can create internal certainty.
我可以找到意义。
I can find the meaning.
我可以塑造出那种找到出路的人的身份。
I I can develop the identity of the person that finds the way.
我可以塑造自己作为创造者的身份。
I can build the identity of being a creator.
如果我掌握这三项技能，我就能始终学会新东西。
And if I study these three skill sets, I'll always be able to learn.
随着不断学习，我将能够掌握生活中遇到的任何事物，包括人工智能、科技、机器人技术、纳米技术等。
And as I learn, I'll be able to master anything life brings me, including AI, technology, robotics, nanotechnology, etcetera.
大家可能不知道，但我组建了一支了不起的研究团队。
Everybody, you may not know this, but I've done an incredible research team.
每周，我和我的研究团队都会研究影响世界的宏观趋势。
And every week, myself and my research team study the meta trends that are impacting the world.
主题包括计算、传感器、网络、人工智能、机器人、3D打印和合成生物学。
Topics like computation, sensors, networks, AI, robotics, three d printing, synthetic biology.
我每周发布的这些宏观趋势报告，能让你比别人提前十年看到未来。
And these meta trend reports I put out once a week enable you to see the future ten years ahead of anybody else.
如果你想每周获取宏观趋势通讯，请访问 diamandis.com/metatrends。
If you'd like to get access to the meta trends newsletter every week, go to diamandis.com/metatrends.
那就是 diamandis.com/metatrends。
That's diamandis.com/metatrends.
我很感谢这一点，我同意你的看法。
I appreciate this, and I agree with you.
当然，挑战在于有多少人内心真正有勇气去走这条路。
Of course, the challenge is how many people have it within themselves to actually, you know, go down that road.
其中一个挑战是，我们生活在一个许多社会契约已经深深融入我们生活的世界中。
One of the challenges is we're living in a world where there have been a number of social contracts that have become, you know, sort of codified in all of our lives.
你知道的？
You know?
努力学习，上好大学，拿到学位，找一份好工作，但突然间这一切都被打乱了。
Work hard in school, go to good college, get a degree, get a great job, and all of a sudden that gets just disrupted.
人们发现自己一生的身份都依赖于他们的工作。
And people find themselves where their identity for all time has been their job.
首先，'工作'这个概念其实是个相当晚近的发明。
I mean, first off, the idea of work is a rather recent invention.
你知道吗？
You know?
我们两万年前根本不需要工作。
We never used to work ten, twenty thousand years ago.
我们照样活下来了。
We survived.
我很喜欢萨吉古鲁关于这一点的名言。
I love Sadhguru has a great quote about this.
我记得他说过，科技是我们从生存中休假的方式。
I remember he said, technology is the means by which we take a vacation from survival.
我太喜欢这句话了。
I I I love that.
这太棒了。
That's great.
所以现在的问题是，当你的自我价值与工作紧密相连时，突然间，你的工作被剥夺或被削弱了。
And and so the question now is when when your self worth has been tied to your job, and all of a sudden, either, you know, it's taken away or it's it's minimized.
而且我认为，我们还有一个最大的担忧，埃隆也提到了这一点：我们将有一大批人找不到工作。
And then we also have, I think, one of the biggest concerns I have, and and Elon echoed this, is we're gonna have a large population of individuals not getting jobs.
我的意思是，他们正处于一种社会契约的过程中：我努力工作了。
I mean, they're in the process of the social contract of, I've worked hard.
我上了大学。
I got to a college.
我们在麻省理工学院、东北大学以及各地的大学都看到了这种情况。
And we're seeing this at MIT, at Northeastern, at universities around.
我拥有很高的学历，却还是找不到工作。
I you know, with great degrees, I cannot get a job.
并重新学习，去成为一名创作者。
And retooling themselves to go and become a creator.
我们在《月球计划》播客中经常讨论的一件事是，真正的未来职业、真正的未来机遇是成为企业家。
And I you know, one of the things we've talked on the Moonshots podcast a lot is that the real future career, the real future opportunity is being an entrepreneur.
创业是每个人未来的方向，无论你怎么称呼它，叫创作者也好，其他名字也罢。
Entrepreneurship is the future for everybody at some shape and call it a creator, call it whatever you like.
那么，当人们正身处困境时，他们该如何做出这种转变呢？
So how do people make that make that shift when they're in the midst of of hurting?
而且，我们还没有达到那一步。
And we're not we're not there yet.
你知道，埃隆还提到过另一件事，我想说一下：我们正朝着全民高收入的方向发展，机器人和人工智能将让我们拥有想要的一切，但与此同时，社会动荡也在加剧。
You know, another thing that Elon said that I wanna just say is, you know, we're gonna head towards universal high income where, you know, robots and AI enable us to have anything we want and at the same time with social unrest.
那么，你如何看待即将到来的社会动荡？
So how do you think about social unrest coming?
它是可以避免的吗？
Is it avoidable?
我们能让自己免疫吗？
Can we immunize ourselves?
你认为政府会采取必要的行动吗？
Do you think government's gonna take the actions required?
是的。
Yeah.
这些问题都很棒。
Those are those are great questions.
我当然不是能回答这些问题的专家。
And I'm I'm certainly not the expert to answer them.
我只能分享一下我的个人观点。
I can only give you my two cents of my opinion.
但我听过很多人以前说过这个。
But, you know, I've heard a lot of people say this before.
比如，他们说四千年来，我们的身份一直与工作紧密相连。
Like, you know, they say for four thousand years, our identity has been tied to work.
当我们不再需要工作时，会发生什么？
What happens when we don't have to work anymore?
但在社会进入农业转型之前，四千年这个说法并不准确。
And it's just not true for four thousand years before the aggregarian transformation of our society.
正如你所说，我们当时只是为了生存，而真正与我们绑定的是部落。
As you said, we're into survival but really what we were tied to was a tribe.
我们与联系和贡献紧密相连。
We were tied to connection and contribution.
这两者是人类永恒的需求，即使没有所谓的‘工作’，它们也不会消失。
Those are two human needs that have never gone away and are not gonna go away if there's no, quote, work.
至于人类是否真的会完全不再工作，我个人并不信服。
Now, I don't know if I buy, there'll be no work for human beings personally.
我可能完全错了。
I could be dead wrong.
但我就是不认同你所描述的这种必然未来，尤其是在未来三到五年内。
But I just I don't I don't buy that necessary future, certainly not in the next three, five years that you're describing.
但我觉得你得想想经济效用的问题。
But I think you gotta think about economic utility wasn't it.
你曾拥有那种意义感。
You had your sense of significance.
让我们花两秒钟谈点别的，因为你知道这一点，但请跟你的观众分享一下。
Let let's talk about something for two seconds because you know this, but share it with your audience.
你知道吗，我与世界各地的人合作。
You know, I work with people all over the earth.
大约二十年前，我发现了一件事，彻底改变了我的工作方式，让我能够以一种截然不同的方式帮助他人：我注意到，我曾在大约100多个，呃，139个国家工作过。
One of the things that I uncovered about twenty years ago that just really changed my work where I could help people in a radically different way is I noticed, you know, I've worked in, you know, a 100 and, what, a 139 countries.
我的客户遍布193个国家。
I've got clients in a 193 countries.
但我亲自去过这些国家并开展工作。
But I've gone to those places countries and worked.
每个国家都有其独特的价值观和规则体系，这显而易见。
And every country has its own values and rule systems, obviously.
一般来说，比如你去东方，保全面子是非常非常重要的，正如你所知。
Generally, for example, if you go to the East, saving face is very, very important as you well know.
像美国这样的文化中，个人的价值更为突出。
And there's cultures like The United States where the end you know, the individual is more valued.
也有一些文化更注重群体。
There's cultures where it's more about the group.
但我注意到，尽管文化不同，每个文化中都出现了相同的问题。
But the one thing I noticed that every single culture was, the same problems occurred even though the culture was different.
这让我深入探究是什么在背后驱动着人们。
And that made me dig to see what drives people underneath it all.
那些不仅仅是动机的驱动力是什么？
What are what are the drives that aren't just motivational?
哪些驱动力是所有人类与生俱来的？
What are the drives that are built into all human beings?
我最终发现了我认为驱动一切的六种人类需求。
And I finally discovered what I consider to be the six human needs that drive everything.
换句话说，无论人们做什么，都有他们的原因。
In other words, whatever people do, they have a reason.
如果有人说他们要自杀，那他们一定有原因。
If somebody says they're gonna commit suicide, they've got a reason.
如果有人愿意冲进大楼去救别人，甚至可能为此失去生命，他们也一定有原因。
If someone's willing to run-in a building and save someone and they might lose their life to do it, they got a reason.
如果有人冲你大喊，他们也有原因。
If somebody just yells you, they got a reason.
他们可能并不清楚自己意识层面的原因，但背后有成千上万的理由。
They might not know what it is consciously, but there's a million reasons.
驱动这些理由或这些故事的，是六种基本需求。
There's six needs that drive those reasons or those stories.
对吧？
Right?
有人要自杀，显然他们相信，死亡比活着更不痛苦，比如这种情况。
Someone's gonna kill themself, obviously, they have to have a belief that dying is less painful than living as an example.
这六种需求可以快速总结如下，因为它们
So those six needs come down to these real fast because they
我认为我们最好逐个分析，因为人工智能会影响所有这些需求。
think And let's actually let's take these one at a time because AI impacts all of them.
确实如此。
They do.
确实如此。
It does.
现在，我们来看看它们分别是什么。
Now, let's just look at what they are.
第一个基本的人类需求是确定性。
So the first basic human need is certainty.
一种能够感到舒适、避免痛苦的需求。
The need to be able to be comfortable to avoid pain.
这种对确定性的需求存在于每个人身上。
Now this need for certainty is in every human being.
但人类在这六种需求上的差异在于，有些人将确定性放在首位，而有些人则更看重另一种需求，比如不确定性。
It's just the differences in human beings in these six needs are that some people value certainty, number one, and some will value, let's say, uncertainty, another need, much higher.
你对这六种需求的重视程度，决定了你做出不同选择的原因。
Where you value these six needs is why we make different decisions.
嗯。
Mhmm.
第二件事是，你如何获得确定性？
And the second thing is how do you get certainty?
有些人通过降低期望来获得确定性。
Some people get certainty by lowering their expectations.
有些人通过信仰上帝，认为存在更高的目的来获得确定性。
Some people get certainty by trusting in God and saying there's a higher purpose.
我会得到指引。
I'm gonna be guided.
有些人通过说：‘我以前经历过地狱’来获得确定性。
Some people get certainty by saying, you know, I've I've been through hell before.
我总能找到答案。
I've always find the answer.
我在这里也会找到答案。
I'll find the answer here.
有些人通过锻炼身体，从身体中感受到确定性来获得确定性。
Some people get certainty by working out and feeling that certainty in their body.
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所以我们每个人都有不同的规则，不同的地图来满足这种需求。
So we all have different rules, a different map about how to meet that need.
所以两个关键区别在于，你最看重的是哪两样东西？
So the two differences is what do you value towards the top two?
那就是驱动你的东西。
That's what drives you.
而你满足它们的规则又是什么？
And what are your rules about how to meet them?
话虽如此，你也可以通过吃很多食物来获得确定感。
So having said that, you can get certainty by eating a lot of food.
你压力很大时，吃很多食物，胃填满了，呼吸就会变得顺畅，对吧？因为你饱了。
You're all stressed out, eat a lot of food, and your stomach fills up and you start to breathe better, right, because you're full.
或者抽一支烟。
Or you smoke a cigarette.
深吸一口气，然后缓慢地呼出，你就会感觉好一些。
Take a breath in and blow it out nice and slow, and you feel better.
你正在毁掉自己，但做这件事的时候你感到舒服。
You're killing yourself, but you feel comfortable while you're doing it.
对吧？
Right?
这只是提供了确定性。
It's just it provides certainty.
所以你可以通过积极的方式、中立的方式或消极的方式找到确定性。
So you can find certainty in positive ways, neutral ways, or negative ways.
但如果你一生中的每一刻都确信无疑，知道接下来会发生什么、什么时候发生、别人会做什么、会说什么，一开始你会觉得很棒。
But if you were certain every moment of your life, you know what's gonna happen, when it's gonna happen, what someone's gonna do, what they're gonna say, in the beginning, that'd feel great.
但过一阵子，你会无聊到极点，这就是为什么宇宙、上帝，或者你称它为任何东西，给了我们第二个需求，那就是不确定性。
But after a while, you'd be bored out of your mind, which is why the universe, God, whatever you wanna call, gave us a second need, which is uncertainty.
我们有对不确定性的需求。
We have a need for uncertainty.
我们有对惊喜的需求。
We have a need for surprise.
事实上，当我面对大型观众时，我会问整个体育场的人：有多少人喜欢惊喜？
In fact, when I do large audiences, I'll say to a stadium, how many love surprise?
然后一万五千人全都举起了手。
And 15,000 people all raise their hand.
我会说：胡说八道。
And I go, bullshit.
我说：你们喜欢的是你们想要的惊喜。
I said, you like the surprises you want.
对吧？
Right?
你们不想要的惊喜，你们称之为问题。
The surprises you don't want, you call problems.
但我们需要那些。
But we need those.
它们会激发我们不同的反应。
It triggers a different response in us.
我们需要这种变化来保持多样。
We need that for variety.
但如果变化太多，人们就会崩溃。
Now if there's too much variety, people freak out.
如果确定性太强，他们会无聊至极。
If there's too much certainty, they're bored out of their mind.
所以目标是做那个平淡的中间派吗？
So is the goal to be the lukewarm middle?
不是。
No.
目标是，通过多种信念、行为或情感，你可以满足多种需求。
The goal is you can meet multiple through multiple beliefs or actions or emotions, you can meet multiple needs.
如果有人租过一部已经看过的电影，我会问人们这个问题，大多数人说他们有过，然后我说：去活出点样子吧。
If someone's ever rented, you know, a movie that they've already seen, I'll ask people that, most people say they have, and I say get a life.
对吧？
Right?
我说，但我自己也这么做过。
And I said, but I've done it too.
你为什么要租一部已经看过的电影？
Why would you rent a movie you've already seen?
因为你确信它很棒，而且你希望已经过了足够长的时间，你已经忘得差不多了，再看一遍依然能带来新鲜感。
Because you're certain it's good and you're hoping it's been long enough, you've forgotten enough, still gives you variety to watch it again.
对吧？
Right?
所以你可以满足多种需求。
And so you can meet multiple needs.
第三个需求是获得重要性的需求。
The third need is the need for significance.
渴望感到独特、特别、重要。
The need to feel unique, to feel special, to feel important.
这是人类最重要的需求之一。
This is one of the most important human needs.
它们都很重要。
They're all important.
有些人把重要性放在第一位。
Some people value significance, number one.
有些人把确定性放在第一位。
Some people value certainty, number one.
所以他们过着截然不同的生活。
So they live a very different life.
对吧？
Right?
如果你把确定性放在第一位，你会在这里稍微退缩。
If you're valuing certainty, number one, you're gonna be holding back a little bit back here.
如果你追求不确定性，你会勇往直前。
If it's uncertainty, you're gonna be charging forward.
对吧？
Right?
你生活的方向取决于你最重视这些需求中的哪一个。
The direction of your life is driven by which of these needs you value at the top.
重要性意味着感到被需要、感到重要、感到有分量。
Significance means to feel needed, to feel important, to feel significant.
对吧？
Right?
你可以通过比任何人都更努力工作、更慷慨大方来获得重要性。
You can get significance by working harder than anybody else, being more generous.
你也可以通过，你知道的，打压别人来获得重要性。
You can get significance by be you know, beating up on somebody.
对吧？
Right?
也就是在言语上贬低别人。
You know, verbally tearing somebody down.
你有一种错觉，觉得别人跌倒了，你就上升了。
You have the illusion if they go down, you go up.
对吧？
Right?
实现它的方式有很多，有正面的，也有负面的。
There's so many ways to do it that are positive, negative.
我们之所以有暴力，是因为有些人感觉不到重要，而你身处的那个地区，他们可能觉得自己不属于这个社会，没有被照顾，也没有同样的机会，于是有人把枪抵在你头上。
The reason we have violence is if somebody doesn't feel significant and you're in that part of town where maybe they're not being feel like they're part of our society or taken care of or have the same options, somebody puts a gun at your head.
那么，他们有多确定你会做出反应？
Well, how certain are they you're gonna respond?
从0到10分？
Zero to 10?
10分。
10.
每次的情况都不同，有多少变化？
How much variety is every time it's different?
第三，你是他们生命中最重要的人。
And thirdly, you're the most significant thing in their life.
我提起这一点，是因为这是一个关键原则。
I bring this up because this is a critical principle.
我知道我教你的内容很多且很快，但你会明白这些对于理解科技和人工智能如何影响我们以及我们正在讨论的变革为何重要。
I know I'm teaching you a lot real quick but you'll see why it's important in understanding how technology and AI affects us and the changes we're talking about.
如果你通过某种信念、某种情绪模式或某种行为，至少满足了你的三个需求，你就会对这个信念、这种情绪或这种行为上瘾。
If if you are in a position that you meet at least three of your needs through a belief or three of your needs by an emotional pattern or three of your needs by an action, you'll become addicted to that belief, that emotion, or that action.
无论这是积极的还是消极的上瘾，你都会对其上瘾。
Whether it's a positive thing or negative addiction, you'll be addicted to it.
顺便说一句，不幸的是，暴力一直伴随着我们，除非发生意识上的转变，否则它将继续存在，因为它是快速获得重要感、确定性和多样性的途径之一。
And by the way, unfortunately, violence has always been with us and will be unless there's a consciousness change because it's one of the fastest ways to feel significant and certain and have variety.
不幸的是，它还满足了第四个需求，那就是连接与爱。
It also meets the fourth need, unfortunately, which is connection and love.
不是‘爱’的部分，而是‘连接’的部分。
Not the love part, but the connection part.
每个人都需要连接与爱。
Everyone needs connection and love.
对吧？
Right?
我们作为人类，如果你出生在一个医生家庭，我知道你是学火箭科学的医生，但你也知道作为一位医学医生，如果婴儿时期孩子没有被身体拥抱，没有那种触觉接触，他们就会患上发育迟缓综合症。
We, as human beings, if you're born, you know, as a doctor in your background, I know rocket science doctor but you also know as a medical doctor, That if children are not physically held as as babies, if they're not having that kinesthetic touch, they get failure to thrive syndrome.
literally，他们可能因为缺乏这种接触而死亡。
Literally, they can die from the lack of that.
所以我们需要这种连接。
So we need that connection.
现在，大多数人曾经拥有过爱，但也许爱消失了或结束了，于是他们只能接受一些残余的连接，但他们仍然渴望它。
Now most people had love and maybe it disappeared or it ended and so they settle for the crumbs of connection but they still want that.
所以你可以通过遇到问题，并与他人分享你的问题来获得这种连接。
So you can get connection through, you know, having problems and sharing your problems with someone else.
你也可以通过祈祷来获得这种连接。
You can have that connection by, you know, prayer.
你还可以通过跑步，感受到与上帝或宇宙的连接。
You can have connection by going for a run and feeling connected to God or the universe.
你知道吗，养狗也能感受到这种连接，因为猫会走开，但你只要离开两分钟，狗就会这样。
You know, you can feel that connection by buying a dog because, you know, cats leave, but dogs, you leave for two minutes.
就好像你离开了六个月一样。
It's like you've been gone for six months.
它们见到你时特别开心。
They're so happy to see you.
对吧？
Right?
所以，有很多方式可以获得这种连接感，对吧？
So there's many ways, right, to get that sense of connection.
顺便问一下，你有没有见过两个人争谁的问题更严重？
By the way, have you ever seen two people fight over whose problem's bigger?
我遇到过一个这样的。
I have this one.
我有这个问题。
I have this problem.
他们根本不是在为问题争吵，而是在互相算计。
They're fucking over they're not fighting over the problems.
他们争的是谁的问题更严重。
They're fighting over who's got a more significant problem.
我的更糟，我更重要。
Mine's worse, I'm more significant.
对吧？
Right?
这就像是大家联合起来比谁出差更多。
So there's It's like a united battle over who's been traveling too much.
说得太对了。
That's exactly right.
前四个需求是人格的需求。
So the first four needs are the needs of the personality.
每个人都需要确定性。
Everyone needs certainty.
如果你必须对自己撒谎，你也会这么做。
And if you have to lie to yourself, you'll do it.
如果你必须每天工作二十小时，你也会这么做。
If you have to work twenty hours a day, you'll do it.
人们总会找到办法获得确定性。
People find a way to get certainty.
从零到十，他们可能得到五、六、七分，我不知道，而且这种方式可能是暂时的。
Now, zero to 10, they might get five, six, seven, I don't know, and they might get in a way that's temporary.
如果你吃一大堆糖，你会感到一阵甜蜜的兴奋，但很快就会回落。
If you take a bunch of sugar, you're gonna get a nice sugar high, but it's gonna drop.
这不会持久。
It doesn't last.
大多数人满足自己的需求的方式都是暂时的。
Most people meet their needs in a way that is temporary.
对吧？
Right?
但确定性和不确定性，这两个概念，你能看出它们是相互对立的。
But certainty, uncertainty, those two, can see how they feel like contrastive.
重要性，我想成为那个独一无二的人，但同时我又想与他人建立联系。
Significance, I wanna be the one, but then I wanna be connected.
因此，你可以看到大多数人在这前四个需求中所面临的冲突。
So you can see the kind of conflicts that most people find in these first four.
但最根本的需求是我们精神层面的需求，不是宗教性的，而是精神性的。
But the ultimate needs are our spiritual needs, not religious, but spiritual.
生活中的一切都必须成长。
And that is everything in life has to grow.
一切要么成长，要么死亡。
Everything grows or it dies.
这不是我的法则。
That's not my law.
这是宇宙的法则。
It's the law of the universe.
宇宙中的一切，如果不能做出贡献，最终都会被淘汰。
And everything in the universe, if it doesn't contribute, it's eventually eliminated.
对吧？
Right?
所以我们必须做出贡献。
So we have to contribute.
我们必须给予一些东西。
We have to give something.
当我们贡献时，我们才有东西可以给予。
When we contribute, we have something to give.
那就是你体验精神升华的时候。
And that's when you have a spiritual high.
那时人们感受到的是满足，而非仅仅为生存而活。
That's when people feel fulfilled as opposed to for survival.
所以我这么说，是因为当一个人失去工作、身份认同或自我价值时，往往是因为他们不再通过工作来实现这些，或者我们假设未来根本不需要工作。
So I say this because to look talk about someone losing their job or their sense of identity or their self worth because they're not doing it through their work anymore, or let's assume that there's no need for work.
让我们从这个乌托邦的角度来看。
Let's take this utopian view.
如果我认为我们获得重要性和确定性的唯一途径是通过工作，我会对此感到担忧。
I would be concerned about that if I thought the only way we could meet our needs for significance and certainty would be through work.
但你看，如果我们回溯人类历史，某种程度上我们已经生活在一个后工作世界了。
But look, we've already lived a post work world to some extent if you go back in our history as humans.
对吧？
Right?
当你不被你的经济价值所评判时，人们不会问你的工作。
When you were not evaluated by your economic utility, you'd quote your job.
我们总是问，在美国，例如，你是做什么的。
We always ask, what do you do in America, for example.
但那时的情况并非如此。
But that's not what's happening then.
你当时是被你的勇气、创造力、智慧所评判的，是你可以分享的东西，比如你的艺术、音乐或讲故事的能力。
You were evaluated by, let's say, your courage in war, by your creativity, by your wisdom, right, by the things that you could share, your art or your music or your ability to tell stories.
因此，满足我们的需求有多种方式。
So there are many ways to meet our needs.
在过去几百年里，我们一直被引导只以一种预测性的方式看待这个问题，但我们以前做过，将来也可以再做。
Right now, we have been driven to think of it only in one predictive way for the last couple hundred years, but we've done it before and we can do it again.
但对你问题的回答是：我们社会能足够快地做到这一点吗？
But the answer to your question is, will we as a society do that quick enough?
每个人都能足够快地实现这一点吗？
Will everybody make that happen quick enough?
恐怕我要说，答案是否定的，依我看来，因为现在推动这一技术（尤其是人工智能以及紧随其后的纳米技术等）的，是胡萝卜加大棒的策略。
I'm afraid to say the answer is no, in my opinion, just because right now, you have the carrot and the stick that's driving this technology, especially AI and nanotechnology right behind it and everything else.
胡萝卜是：我可以赚上万亿美元；大棒是：如果我们不这么做，中国可能会主导世界。
The carrot is I can make trillions of dollars, and the stick is if we don't do this, China could dominate the world.
没错。
Yep.
因此，几乎没有任何资金用于安全研究，也几乎没有人思考谁在完成这些工作。
So as a result of that, almost no money is spent on safety, and there's almost no thinking about what's doing the jobs.
你知道吗，现在高中生的就业率首次超过了大学生。
You know right now, we're already seeing high school students are having greater job employment than college students for the first time.
这在现代历史上是前所未有的。
So that never happened before in modern history.
这种情况正在发生，因为人们正在离开，而那些中等职位已经消失了。
And that's happening because people are leaving and those middle jobs have disappeared.
那些第一份工作已经不复存在了。
Those first day jobs have already disappeared.
我们对此采取了任何措施吗？
Are we doing anything about it?
目前的答案是否定的。
The answer right now is no.
这让我感到担忧吗？
So is it concerning to me?
是的。
Yes.
我最担心的是，如果你没有工作，你如何找到人生的意义？
My biggest concern is if you don't have any work, how do you find meaning?
我知道你可以做到。
I know you can do it.
有很多方法可以做到。
There's many ways to do it.
但我们必须教育人们，并且要重新培训他们。
But we have to educate people, and we've gotta retool them.
就像和奥巴马总统谈话时那样，真正思考如何重新塑造我们的社会、并说‘那就去当程序员吧’的人寥寥无几。
And just like talking to president Obama, there's very few people actually looking at how to retool our society and then say, well, to become programmers.
他们告诉人们去学编程。
You know, they told people go study code.
而现在，当然，正如你所知，有了VibeCode，我刚刚和我们共同的朋友聊过。
And now, of course, as you know, with VibeCode, I I was just talking to, I think, mutual friend of ours.
我想，你认识维斯塔的罗伯特·史密斯吧。
I think, you know, Robert Smith over at Vista.
是的。
Yes.
1250亿美元的私募股权公司。
$125,000,000,000 private equity firm.
我记得五年前我跟他谈过。
I remember five years I talked to him.
我说，你们业务的瓶颈是什么？
I said, what's the chokehold on your business?
是让更多人会写代码，对吧？更多的软件工程师。
It's getting more people that can write code, right, more software engineers.
现在，他们正在疯狂地裁员。
Right now, they're eliminating them like crazy.
对吧？
Right?
他们只需要少数几个非常聪明的人。
They only need a few, some really smart ones.
所以，你并不是因为人工智能而失去工作。
So again, you don't lose your job to to AI.
你是因为别人比你更会使用人工智能而失去工作。
You lose your job to someone else who use AI better than you do.
所以我认为，你问题的答案是，有一种方法可以满足我们所有的需求。
So I think the answer to your question is there is a way to meet all of our needs.
这将是一次召唤。
It's gonna be a call.
我认为人工智能正在做的，是一种精神上的召唤。
And I think what AI is doing is it's a spiritual call.
我知道这是我的看法。
I know that's my view of it.
我们正从生存价值观转向精神价值观。
We're going from survival values to spiritual values.
是的。
Yeah.
从外部关注转向更内在的关注，我们能够分享并让世界变得更好。
From external focus to more internal focus that we're able to share and make the world better.
这就是这件事的积极面。
That's the upside of this.
但过渡期将会很痛苦。
But the transition time is gonna be painful.
如果你回顾历史，大多数这样的过渡期大约都是五年左右。
And if you look at history, most of those transitions are a five year period roughly.
如果你看看过去每一次重大的技术颠覆。
If you look at every type of major disruption that's happened with technology in the past.
我希望不会像那样。
I hope it's not like that.
我希望像我们这样的对话能够起到推动作用，让更多人以高层次展开类似讨论，而像你我这样的人可以努力影响那些有影响力的人，促成这一转变。
I hope we can conversations like this, like we're having, could be stimulative and other people have them at a high level and that people like you and I can try to create as much influence with those who have influence to make that shift.
但这件事没有保证，我认为我们必须现实地承认，可能会出现一些动荡。
But I there's no guarantee on it, and I think we have to be realistic to say there's probably gonna be some disruption.
你看，你和我认识的那些亿万富翁中，有多少人现在正在做末日准备？
Look, how many billionaires that you and I both know that are they're preppers right now?
是的。
Yes.
我的意思是，我知道至少有一打这样的人聚在一起了。
I mean, I know I know of a dozen of them that got together.
我被邀请参加了这个会议。
I got invited to this meeting.
我没去，但我听到了会议的详细内容。
I didn't go, but I got to hear the details of it.
这简直让我震惊。
And it's just blowing my mind.
我的意思是，我们有共同的朋友正在建造地下避难所、大型牧场，并雇佣
I mean, we have mutual friends that are building places underground and giant ranches and hiring
前所未有地招募了大量人员。
giants For the first time.
食物用品。
Food stuff.
太疯狂了。
It's crazy.
但为未来做准备，这并不是答案。
But so prepping for the future, that's not the answer.
为未来做准备的正确方式，是通过改造社会，培养人们对变化的不同心态，并找出我们如何创造这种变革的途径。
The way to prep for the future is prep society by giving the ability to have a different psychology about change and figuring out the ways in which we're gonna create that transport.
托尼，我为你这样做而爱你。
Tony, I love you for it.
谈论对机器人征税之类的事情，可能是其中一部分。
Talk about, like, taxing robots and so forth might be a part of that.
我为你这样做而爱你。
I love you for this.
顺便说一句，任何还没去过托尼与命运的约会的人——我已经去过两次了，那是一次非凡的体验，我强烈推荐给大家。
And by the way, anybody who's not gone gone to Tony's date with Destiny, which I've gone to twice, it's an extraordinary experience, and I commend it to everybody.
你会探索这六种人类需求，并理解哪些需求在驱动你。
And you'll explore these six human needs and understand which of them drive you.
我知道，我不质疑这种转变是否会发生。
And, you know, I'm not questioning whether, this transformation can occur.
嗯。
Mhmm.
我担心的是，社会上谁、哪个机构、哪个组织或哪些领导者会引领这一变革，因为我看不到政府中有任何人正在应对这个问题。
I'm concerned that who in society or what institution or what organizations or what leaders are gonna lead this because I don't see anybody in government addressing this.
我看到一些来自超大规模企业的动向，而它们实际上将成为地球上最富有、最有权势的机构。
I see a little bit coming out of the hyperscalers, which are in fact going to be the wealthiest, most powerful institutions on the planet.
对吧？
Right?
目前这七大巨头的收入相当于美国GDP的一半，超过全球99%的国家。
This magnificent seven right now has got, you know, a a revenue equivalent to half the GDP of The United States and more than 99% of the of the planet.
那么，谁来带头呢？
So who's gonna take who's gonna take the lead?
那么，为了在初中和高中阶段改变这种对话，需要建立什么样的项目呢？
And, you know, what type of programs need to be in place to change this conversation at the middle school and high school level?
对吧？
Right?
因为现在，就拿你的小女儿和年长的孩子来说，一直以来都是‘努力学习’。
Because right now, you know, with your young daughter and your older older children, it was always, Study hard.
这很重要。
This is important.
你需要为社会做贡献。
You need to contribute to society.
你需要学习。
You need to learn.
你需要背乘法表。
You need do math tables.
所有这些事情实际上都在逐渐消失。
You need to all of these things are are effectively fading away.
以及你如何做出贡献。
And how you contribute.
你知道，最终，我们稍后会谈到如何利用技术提升你的人生目标，去追求你的登月计划。
You know, ultimately, the conversation, we'll talk about this in a few minutes, you know, how to use technology to upscale your purpose in life, you know, to go for your moonshots.
我喜欢用的一个比喻是，你如何创造一个《星际迷航》的未来，而不是《瓦力》或《疯狂的麦克斯》那样的未来？
You know, the analogy I like to use is, you know, how do you how do you create a Star Trek future versus a WALL E or a Mad Max future?
是的。
Yeah.
嗯，我认为，再次强调，这些都是深刻的问题，但我希望，像埃隆这样的人——我们有机会与之交谈，你和他们关系很好，还有我们的一些谷歌朋友，以及你提到的那些人，我认为Anthropic的那位先生与这些话题的关联甚至更紧密，是的。
Well, I think, again, you know, these are deep questions, but I think my hope is the Elon's of the world that, you know, we've got a chance to be able chat with and you're good friends with and, some of our friends at Google and some of those very individuals you're talking about, I think the gentleman at Anthropic has even more association to some of this Yeah.
也就是说，我们必须做两件事。
Is to to say, look, we have to do two things.
我们必须重新培训人们，同时也要重塑人们的心理。
We gotta retool people for this but we gotta retool the psychology.
正如你所知，我们在斯坦福做过一项研究，当时在新冠疫情期间，他们来找我，说有两位教授参加了‘日期与命运’六天项目，取得了不可思议的成果。
And as you know, we did that study at Stanford on you know, when in the middle of COVID, they came to me and said, you've gotten these unbelievable results for two of their professors who came to at Date with Destiny, a six day program.
那我们该怎么做？
And what do we do?
我们重新组织了。
We reorganized.
他们重新组织了。
They reorganized.
我没有告诉他们怎么做。
I didn't tell them how.
他们的价值观。
Their value system.
当你改变你的价值观时，你就会改变你注意到的东西、你欣赏的东西。
Well, when you change your value system, you change what you notice, what you appreciate.
如果你人生中最重要的价值是安全，而冒险在你列表的最底部，那么当你走进 seminar 房间时，你知道所有出口的位置。
If your number one value in life is security and the bottom of your list is adventure, when you walk in that seminar room, you know where all the exits are.
如果你人生中最重要的价值是冒险，你甚至不知道自己是从哪扇门进来的。
If your number one value is adventure, you don't even know which room what door you came in.
你根本不在乎。
You don't care.
对吧？
Right?
你的预测过程，就像人工智能一样，真的被重新塑造了。
You literally your predictive process, just like AI, literally is rewired in that process.
所以我们需要教人们如何重塑自己，而且我们已经证明了这一点。
So we need to teach people how to rewire themselves and we've proven it.
斯坦福的研究，我提前问过他们。
The Stanford study, I asked them in advance.
他说他们想针对抑郁症做研究。
He said they wanna do it on depression.
我说，你知道吗，告诉我关于当前抑郁症治疗方法的元研究结果是什么。
And I said, you know, tell me what the meta studies show about current treatments for depression.
这让我大吃一惊。
And it blew my mind.
有百分之六十接受心理治疗、药物治疗或两者结合的抑郁症患者，没有任何改善。
Sixty percent of the people that go in for therapy or or drugs or the combination thereof make zero improvement on the depression.
百分之六十。
Sixty percent.
这是元研究的数据。
That's the meta studies.
百分之四十的人有所改善，但平均而言，他们的抑郁程度只减轻了一半，即减少了百分之五十的抑郁。
Forty percent improve, but on average, they improve half as much or fifty percent less depressed.
有些人确实康复了，但人数极少。
Now some get well, but very few.
大多数人仍然依赖这些药物。
Most stay on these drugs.
我说，天啊，你甚至可以用安慰剂达到这样的效果。
And I said, man, you should be able to get that result, you know, with a placebo.
我说，那么你们做过的最出色的研究是哪一项？
And I said, so let's what's the best study you've ever done?
这是八年前在约翰霍普金斯大学进行的一项研究。
It was done at Johns Hopkins about eight years ago now.
一个月内，他们给患有抑郁症的人使用裸盖菇素（迷幻蘑菇）和认知疗法。
For a month, they gave people depressed with psilocybin, magic mushrooms, and cognitive therapy.
一个月内，我说，如此巨大的生化变化，你肯定会有改变。
For a month, I said, well, that much biochemical change, you must've gotta change.
他们说，这是历史上最成功的一次研究。
They said it was the most successful in history.
六周后，他们有百分之五十六的人没有任何症状，这与其他任何方法相比都令人难以置信。
They got fifty six percent of the people six weeks later had no symptoms, which is pretty unbelievable compared to anything else.
他们说，我知道这听起来像是，呃，你在夸大其词，或者有自我膨胀的成分，或者不是。
They said, I know this sounds like, you know, hyp you know, I'm I'm exaggerating or, you know, there's ego involved or not.
我们已经做了足够多的这类研究了。
We've just done this enough.
我知道神经重塑的过程。
I know the rewiring process.
我们会超越这些数字。
We will trounce those numbers.
所以你们的设置方式是一样的。
So you set it up the same way.
当他们进行这项研究时，六周后，93%的人完全没有任何症状。
And when they did the study, after six weeks, ninety three percent of the people had no symptoms whatsoever.
剩下的7%也有所改善。
And the seven percent had improved.
但更重要的是，研究中有17%的人最初有自杀念头。
But more importantly, seventeen percent of the people in the study came in with suicidal ideation.
当他们离开时，已经没有人再有这种念头了。
When they left, none did.
这仅仅是重新组织、重新调整。
This is just reorganizing, retooling.
对吧？
Right?
最棒的是，一年后，没有任何我的干预，他们的负面情绪整体下降了72%，正面情绪上升了51%。
The the best part was a year later with no interaction from me, their negative emotions dropped 72 overall, positive emotions up fifty one percent.
那我为什么要告诉你们这些呢？
Now why am I telling you that?
如果你拥有世界上最好的法拉利，我们不妨把AI称为你的法拉利。
If you have the best Ferrari in the world, let's call AI your Ferrari.
对吧？
Right?
它能让你以惊人的速度完成令人惊叹的事情。
It can empower you to do amazing things at speed and amazing.
但你得想想，你驾驶这辆法拉利的全新环境是什么。
But you gotta think about what the new environment is you're driving that Ferrari in.
如果你要去参加巴哈1000拉力赛，却试图开那辆漂亮的法拉利，它根本寸步难行。
If you're going to the, you know, Baja race, spa one thousand, and you try to drive that beautiful Ferrari, it's gonna go nowhere.
如果你去参加达喀尔拉力赛，穿越9300英里的撒哈拉沙漠，却不做任何调整，你肯定会死在那儿。
If you go to the Dakar race, you know, 9,300 miles in the Sahara Desert and you don't retool, you're you're gonna die out there.
所以我认为我们必须重新调整思维方式和情绪，而且我们已经证明这是可以做到的。
And so I think we've gotta retool the thinking processes, the emotions, and we've proven we can do it.
因此，我认为现在这类事情已经可以大规模开展了，你知道的。
So I think with people these types of things now can be done at scale as you know.
比如，我这个月底要举办我的研讨会。
Like, I'll I'm doing my seminar, you know, at the end of this month.
我每年免费为全球各地的人举办一次。
I do one once a year for free for people all over world.
自从新冠疫情以来，我就一直在做这件事。
I've done it since COVID.
对吧？
Right?
所以我们称之为‘崛起时刻峰会’。
And and and so we call it the time to rise summit.
是时候将你的生活提升到一个新的层次了。
It's time to take your life to the next level.
我们免费提供。
We offer it for free.
去年，我们有130万人来自地球上的每个国家参与了我们的活动。
We had 1,300,000 people last year join us from every country on the face of the earth.
每天晚上，我没有做两个小时。
And every night, we did I didn't do it for two hours.
我实际上是每天做三个半小时。
I did it literally for three days, three and a half hours a day.
你看到这些巨大的转变，而以前我只能在体育场的15000人观众中实现。
And you see these huge transformations that before I can only do in an audience of 15,000 people in a stadium.
所有这些都源于疫情封锁期间的大问题，我不得不适应，因为我想要帮助人们。
All that came, by the way, because when they shut down during COVID, this big problem, I had to adapt because I wanted to help people.
这并不是说，你知道，我有114家公司，但这是我的使命。
It wasn't you know, I got a 114 companies, but this is my mission.
所以我想，好吧。
So I was like, okay.
我们会搬到拉斯维加斯。
We'll move to Vegas.
他们关闭了拉斯维加斯。
They shut down Vegas.
我们会搬到德克萨斯。
We'll move to Texas.
他们关闭了德克萨斯。
They shut down Texas.
我们会去电影院举办。
We'll do it in movie theaters.
他们关闭了电影院。
They shut down the movie theaters.
所以我建了工作室，开始了这个过程。
So I built the studio, and we started this process.
所以现在，你知道，研讨会不再局限于15000人了。
And so now, you know, the seminar is no longer 15,000 people.
一个标准的、你知道的，你参加的活动通常会有四万到六万人，因为我们既有现场参与者，也有遍布各地的参与者。
A standard, like, you know, unleashed power within event you go to has got between forty and sixty thousand people because we have people at the event live and people everywhere.
所以，如果你能制造这些心理转变，一切都会对你有利。
So everything is to your advantage if you create these psychological shifts.
人们必须发生这样的变化，我们需要一些愿意资助这一过程的参与者。
That's what has to happen in people, and we need some players who wanna help fund that.
而我能免费做的时候，我就尽可能多地去做。
And I'm doing it for free where I can do it as much as I can.
但这些工具是存在的。
But the tools exist.
这并不是说，我们不知道该如何重新塑造人们的思维。
It's not like, this we don't know what to do to rewire people.
但如果我们什么都不做，就会出现问题。
But if we do nothing, we're gonna have problems.
无论你做什么，都不是每个人都会利用这一点。
And not everyone's gonna take advantage of that no matter what you do.
作为社会，你们仍然需要应对这个问题。
You're gonna have to deal with that as a society still.
首先，我们会把《Time to Rise》的链接放在节目笔记中，并再次向大家推荐。
So first of all, we'll put the link to Time to Rise in the show notes and commend it again to everybody here.
你知道吗，托尼，优势可能在于规模化的人工智能托尼。
You know, Tony, maybe the advantage is gonna be AI Tony at scale.
我的意思是，我们将会看到人工智能在这一颠覆性变革中大规模地传递信息。
I mean, we're gonna have AI delivering, you know, mass issues in this disruption.
不仅仅是我的事，实际上，我现在正与一个拥有全球最聪明的AI人才的组织进行讨论。
Well, not not only me, but I actually, I'm I'm in discussions right now with an organization that has some of the smartest AI people, I think, on the planet.
我们正在交谈，他们已经让系统投入运行了。
And we're talking we've they've already got it up and running.
我们正在支持50种语言。
We're doing 50 languages.
我们正在提供咨询服务。
We're doing counseling.
他们并不是那种，呃，我不推荐普通的治疗师。
And they're just not you know, like, I wouldn't recommend the average therapist.
我不是在不尊重人。
I'm not being disrespectful.
我不推荐普通的教练。
I wouldn't recommend the average coach.
在任何行业里，都有些人极其出色，但你很难接触到他们，或者他们的日程已经排满了。
In any industry, there are people that are exquisitely good, but they're they're you know, it's hard to get to them or their their schedule is full.
所以我们打算让这个服务在全球范围内免费提供，帮助人们更好地应对问题。
So we're gonna make this available literally worldwide for people to help them be able to manage.
他们可以打开一个应用，立即获得帮助。
They could pop on an app and make it happen.
目前，这项服务对所有人都是免费的。
Right now, it's done for free for people.
将来会设定一个合理的价格。
At some point, there'll be a price point that'll be reasonable.
而且我也是，他们还没正式宣布，但联邦卫生与公共服务咨询委员会，据说有大约2000人申请了。
And I'm also I was just, they just they haven't announced it yet, but they just, the Federal Advisory Committee on Health and Human Services, they've they've had, I guess I don't know if it's 2,000 people apply.
我没申请，但最终选了15个人。
I didn't apply, but there's 15 people on it.
他们刚刚选中了我，我将负责心理健康这一块。
And they just selected me and I'm gonna be the person who's the mental health side.
这给了我一个机会，去真正思考如何在政府层面对这些能帮助我们的数字工具产生一些影响。
So it gives me a chance to really look at how I can have some influence on the governmental side to some of these tools, digital tools that can help us do that.
因为我认为数字工具是解决方案的一部分。
Because I think digital tools are part of the answer
这是
It's it's the
你可以
you can
规模化它们。
scale them.
对吧？
Right?
我认为这是唯一的答案。
Think it's the only answer.
因为当我看到你的六大人类需求时——确定性与不确定性、多样性、重要性、爱与连接、成长、贡献——人工智能正在以颠覆性的方式满足所有这些需求。
It's because when I, you know, when I look at your six human needs, right, certainty and uncertainty, variety, significance, love, connection, growth, contribution, AI is hitting every one of those in a disruptive fashion.
对吧？
Right?
仅凭青少年与AI女友建立关系这一点，就会扰乱个人正常的社会发展进程。
Just in terms of teenagers having relationships with AI girlfriends is gonna disrupt, you know, normal course of social development for individuals.
我的意思是，人们在工作中将面临前所未有的不确定性，但同时又拥有确定性——因为我随时都能得到答案，我的AI爱我并总是回应我，还有重要性……
I mean, the level of uncertainty that's gonna hit people in their jobs, level of certainty when I always know I can go get an answer and I have my AI that loves me and always answer it, you know, significance
不是它爱你，而是它总是肯定你，即使你是个傻瓜。
Not does it love you, but it always affirms you even if you're being an idiot.
并且告诉你，你知道的，你的笑话
And tells you, you know, your jokes
太好笑了。
are hilarious.
你太聪明了。
You're so smart.
这是个绝妙的主意。
That's such a great idea.
对吧？
Right?
太疯狂了。
It's crazy.
确实如此。
It is.
所以，我的意思是，它将极大地扰乱我们的六大人类需求。
So, I mean, it's going to screw with our six human needs in a very
正如你所说，很聪明。
smart is, as you said.
比如，对我来说，拿起我的AI设备是更确定的选择，而且，我不知道你有没有看到，日本最新的统计数据说，没人再发生性关系了。
Like, there's more certain for me to pick up my AI and then, like, I don't know if you saw, but the latest statistics in Japan, they're talking about no one's having sex.
是啊。
Yeah.
对吧？
Right?
他们已经完全脱离了。
They've they've moved completely out.
他们工作到精疲力尽，然后在数字世界中全方位地满足自己。
They're burnt out by work, and then they fulfill themselves digitally in every way.
他们，正如你所知，认为机器人是有灵魂的。
They're gonna they're, as you know, robots, they think have a soul.
所以，他们有着完全不同的认知框架。
So, you know, they have a completely different frame.
但我看到一个统计数据，简直让我震惊。
But, you know, I saw a statistic that they blew my mind.
在美国，目前25到33岁的年轻男性中，少于三分之一曾亲自向女性提出约会邀请。
Here in The United States right now, young men 25 to 33 years old, less than one third have ever approached a woman to ask her out for a date physically.
没错。
Yep.
约会和买房是联系在一起的，这简直太疯狂了。
And and date goes along with homeownership and, you know, it's it's crazy.
我们在很多方面正在摧毁现有的社会结构。
It's we're we're destroying sort of the existing social fabric in in many ways.
我认为，我们才刚刚处于这个现象的5%阶段。
And the challenge is, I believe, we're just at, like, the 5% of it all.
对吧？
Right?
我们啊，是的。
We're Yeah.
嗯，我甚至都不知道这都到5%了。
Well, I I don't even I don't even know it's five.
你知道，你和我，但我们无法估算如此庞大的事情，不过我认为你是对的。
You know, you and I, but we can't estimate something so big, but I think you're right.
这还只是刚开始的开始。
It's at the beginning of the beginning of the beginning.
但我确实认为，如果我们能在根本层面上，持续帮助他们理解自己生命的故事，那么我们也能找到一个更大规模的解决方案。
But I do I do think there's a there's a solution that's available to us on a larger scale too if we can at a fundamental level, just keep you to understand the story of their life.
我的意思是，你的生活是什么？
I mean, what is your life?
它就是一个故事。
It's a story.
如果你想想，比如去看一部电影，或者读一本书，你知道，通常故事有七个要素。
And if you think about, like, if you go to a movie, if you read a book, you know, there's usually seven elements of a story.
你知道，故事的核心在于主角有一个渴望，一种强烈的驱动力。
There's the fundamental way you know what the story is about is the main character has a desire, a driving desire.
如果你回溯三十年，看看那部几乎人人都看过的烂片，施瓦辛格拍过一部叫《真实的谎言》的电影。
You know, if you go back, like, thirty years and you look at a terrible movie that almost everybody's seen, Schwarzenegger made this movie called True Lies.
在这部电影的开头，你看到这个人的起点，意识到他是一名间谍，正在追捕坏人。
And in the beginning of this movie, you see the beginning of this guy and you realize he's a spy and he's going after the bad guys.
所以你知道了他的核心欲望。
And so you know what his driving desire is.
你的欲望决定了故事。
That your desire determines the story.
你的欲望是与神合一吗？
Is your desire to become one with God?
你的欲望是赚十亿美元吗？
Is your desire to make a billion dollars?
你的欲望是帮助地球吗？
Is your desire to help the planet?
你的欲望是拯救儿童吗？
Is your desire to save children?
是写一首好诗吗？
Is it right poetry?
这开启了你的故事。
That starts your story.
然后，故事的下一部分是你观察这一切，并开始意识到：每个人都有问题或需求，否则他们不会追求那个欲望。
Then the next part of your story is you take a look at this and you start to say, everybody has a problem or a need or they wouldn't be after that desire.
你常常会发现，作为读者或观众，你能看到主角缺乏勇气，或者不够善良，或者没有说真话。
And what you'll see often is you as the person reading or watching the story, you can see the main characters missing courage or they're not very kind or they're not telling the truth.
就是我之前举的施瓦辛格那个愚蠢的例子。
You know, that silly example I gave with Schwarzenegger.
你知道，他看起来像个超级英雄，但回到家后，你才发现他的家人根本不知道他是特工。
You know, he looks like a superhero and he goes home and you realize his family doesn't even know he's a spy.
他对所有人撒谎，事事隐瞒。
Lies to everybody about everything.
对吧？
Right?
所以他在家里缺乏勇气。
And so he doesn't have courage at home.
他缺乏诚实。
He doesn't have honesty.
他缺乏联系。
He doesn't have connection.
然后故事的下一部分总是有对手。
And then the next part of the story is there's opponents always.
有三个对手。
There are three opponents.
有外部对手，比如外面那些坏人，但还有亲密的对手。
There's the external opponent like those bad guys out here, but then there's the intimate opponent.
在这部电影中，他以为妻子在出轨，而她并没有。
In that movie, he thinks his wife is cheating on him and she's not.
所以他在这方面与她发生争执。
And so he has fights there.
但最终，还有与自己的斗争，即内在的对手。
But then there's ultimately the fight within yourself, the internal opponent.
当你与之斗争时，你通常会制定一个应对这些对手的计划。
And as you fight that, you usually come up with a plan to deal with these opponents.
如果你想让上帝发笑，就告诉她你的计划。
And if you wanna make God laugh, tell her your plans.
对吧？
Right?
你会经历战斗。
You have battles.
但最终，如果你持续成长这些战斗，就会迎来自我觉醒。
But eventually, if you keep growing those battles, you have self revelation.
你会有一个瞬间，意识到：天啊。
You have a moment when you realize, oh my god.
不是她。
It's not her.
是我。
It's me.
我没有说实话。
I'm not being honest.
我没有勇气。
I'm not being courageous.
我在这里有勇气，但在真正重要的地方却没有。
I'm being courageous here, but not here where it matters.
这种自我觉醒会带来新的行动、新的品格，然后你会达到一种平衡，从此生活再也不会如从前，或者说是从此过上幸福的生活。
And that self revelation leads to new actions, new character, and then you get to an equilibrium where life will never be the same again or, you know, happily ever after.
故事的这些要素——如果你能看清自己身处何处、你的欲望是什么、你当前的计划是什么、你在与谁抗争——就能让你摆脱反应式的状态。
That elements of a story, if you can see where you are, where your desires are, what your current plan is, who you're battling with, that allows you to step out of reaction.
但最终的超越是这样的。
But the ultimate step out is this.
人类最古老的故事首先需要一个强大的对手。
The oldest story of humanity first of all, you need a really good opponent.
对吧？
Right?
如果你看看《沉默的羔羊》这部影片，看到安东尼·霍普金斯和朱迪·福斯特的表演，他真是太出色了。
If you look at, you know, the, you know, science of the lambs and you see Tony Hopkins, Anthony Hopkins with Jodie Foster, he's so brilliant.
这让她显得更加英勇。
It makes her a bigger hero.
对吧？
Right?
但英雄之旅的故事
But the hero's journey story
嗯。
Mhmm.
这个故事已经被讲过无数次了。
It's been taught a million times.
它存在于世界上每一个文化中。
It's in every every culture in the world.
我们都了解约瑟夫·坎贝尔。
We all know of Joseph Campbell.
但我只是想提醒大家，如果你能用英雄之旅的角度来看待你的生活，无论你正在面对什么——技术变革、工作变动、职业转型——每个人都会经历英雄之旅的第一步。
But I just wanna remind people, if you can think of your life in terms of the hero's journey, whatever you're dealing with, technology change, job change, career change, like everyone is gonna experience what the first step is in that hero's journey.
你的生活似乎一切正常，然后某件事发生了。
Your life seems to be okay and then something happens.
这被称为冒险的召唤。
And they call it the call to adventure.
当你的房子着火时，你并不会觉得这是冒险。
It doesn't feel like adventure when your house burns down.
当你遭遇入室盗窃时，你也不会觉得这是冒险。
It doesn't feel like adventure when you're burglarized.
当你失去工作，或政府因新冠疫情封锁你，或当你被告知自己长了肿瘤时，这同样不像是冒险。
It doesn't feel like adventure when you lose your job or the government shuts you down with COVID or you find yourself in a position where someone says you have a tumor.
但如果你不放弃，这确实是冒险的开端。
But it is the beginning of an adventure if you don't give up.
因此，我们都会经历人们所承受的这种极端压力。
And so we experience that extreme stress that people experience.
我们都会经历它。
We're all gonna experience it.
不管你有多灵性、多虔诚、多信仰，不管你多富有、多真诚，都无济于事。
Doesn't matter how spiritual you are, how religious you are, how believer you are, doesn't matter how rich you are, doesn't matter how sincere you are.
每个人都会不止一次地经历它。
Everyone's gonna experience it more than once.
但大多数人试图逃避这个召唤，就像置之不理一样。
But what happens is most people try to not go on the call, like, just ignore it.
而正如你所知，情况只会变得更糟。
And it only gets worse as you know.
有句老话是：如果你正身处地狱，那就继续前行。
If you the old phrase is, if you're going through hell, keep going.
如果你能挺过那些时刻，那些这样做的人都会从中获得三样东西。
If you push through those moments, the people that do, they get three things out of it.
第一，他们意识到自己有多坚强。
Number one, they realize how strong they are.
而你所有其他担心的事情都会消失，因为你开始意识到，我远比自己想象的要强大。
And all these other things you're worried about go away because you start realizing, I am so much more than I thought I was.
第二，你学会了谁才是你真正的朋友，而不是你的Facebook好友或你称作朋友的那些人。
Second, you learn who your real friends are, not your Facebook friends or whoever you call them.
对吧？
Right?
那些在你处境不佳时依然在你身边的人。
The ones that are there when it's not going well.
第三，你会对未来的挑战产生近乎免疫的能力。
And third, you get almost an immunity to future challenges.
我有个朋友在越南当飞行员，被击落之后在单独监禁中度过了六年。
I have a friend that was in Vietnam and was shot down as a pilot and spent six years in solitary confinement.
你知道，后来我记得国税局在追着他，我就问：‘你难道不紧张吗？’
And like, you know, you know, later on, I remember the IRS was coming after him and like, aren't you stressed?
他却说：‘经历过北越人之后，你还开玩笑？’
It's like, after the North Vietnamese, are you kidding me?
你知道，我没什么问题。这个旅程的第一步，快速想想《绿野仙踪》。
You know, I'm no problem So the first step in that journey real fast, think of like Wizard of Oz.
多萝西过着黑白分明的安稳生活。
Dorothy's got this black and white nice life.
还不错。
It's okay.
她觉得最大的事就是有人想把她的小狗带走，因为狗咬了人。
She thinks a big deal is somebody wants to take her dog from her because the dog bit somebody.
对吧？
Right?
小托托。
Little Toto.
然后发生了什么？
And then what happens?
她逃避任何真正的改变。
She avoids any real change.
她只是试图逃跑。
She just tries to run away.
但生活总会找上你。
But then life comes and gets you.
当生活来找你时，你知道，当你试图拒绝召唤时，它会说：不，你必须踏上这段旅程。
And when life comes to get you, it comes, you know, when you try to refuse the call, it says, no, you're going on the journey.
龙卷风把她卷走了。
The tornado takes her.
她发现自己来到了一个新世界，那里有新的人。
And she finds herself in a new world where there are new people.
她结成了新的盟友。
She makes some new alliances.
她遇到了一些新的导师，他们会帮助引导她。
She meets some new mentors who are gonna help guide her.
她开始跨越那道无法回头的门槛。
And she starts to go past the threshold where she can't go back.
她踏上了这条路。
She's on this road.
她开始了这段新的旅程。
She's on this new journey.
在这段旅程中，她经历了种种考验。
And on that journey, she goes to ordeals.
她必须与龙战斗，在这个故事里，就是东边和西边的邪恶女巫。
She has fight the dragon, the witch in this case, the witch wicked witch of the East and the West.
她最终抵达了承诺之地，奥兹会赐予她一切。
And she's gonna get to the promised land where, you know, Oz is gonna give her everything.
她经历了所有这些战斗、学习和体验，逐渐成长。
And she does all these fights and she goes through all these learnings and experiences and she becomes more.
当她到达那里时，才发现这个男人并不是能改变我人生的人。
And when she gets there, she finds out this guy is not the the person who's gonna change my life.
答案早已在我心中。
The answer is already inside of me.
铁皮人发现他早已拥有一颗心。
Tin Man discovers that he already has a heart.
稻草人明白他拥有智慧。
The stroke the straw man understands he's got a brain.
是的，勇气是存在的。
Yes, there's courage.
他已经展现出来了。
He's demonstrated.
并不是你没有恐惧，而是你为了狮子依然去做了。
It's not that you weren't fearful that you did it anyway for the lion.
对她来说，是敲着脚丫子说：没有地方比得上家。
And for her, it's tapping her feet and saying there's no place like home.
当你经历这个循环，当你斩杀巨龙，你会变得更强，并且现在你有了可以给予的东西。
Well, when you go through that cycle, when you when you slay the dragons, you become more and you have now something to give.
你回到家时，已成为一个全新的人。
You come home, a new person.
一旦你以为一切都结束了，它又会再次发生。
And as soon as you think it's all over, it happens again.
对吧？
Right?
所以当我失去家园时，你知道吗，我捐了大约600万美元，因为我实在无法忍受看到洛杉矶人们所承受的痛苦。
So when I lost my home, you know, I've helped about $6,000,000 I donated because I just I couldn't stand the pain I saw people in LA.
我不住在洛杉矶。
I don't live in LA.
因为我看到那里的人们只得到十四天的临时许可，对吧？
Because I saw people there get a fourteen day pass, right?
他们没有家，能做什么呢？
What are they gonna do without a home?
所以我尽力帮助尽可能多的人。
So I tried to help as many people as I could.
但有些我单独帮助过的人，和我交谈后，他们告诉我：‘我二十年前就失去了家园，被烧得一干二净。’
But some of the people I helped individually and some of the people I got to talk to, I was like, I lost my home twenty years ago, burned to the ground.
我所有的东西都没了。
Everything I had was gone.
我的家人还活着。
My family was alive.
这才是最重要的。
That's what mattered.
其他的一切都消失了。
Everything else was gone.
那时候还没有云存储照片和回忆的地方。
There was no place to store your pictures and your history in the cloud.
我说，但这件事却带来了一个全新的世界。
And I said, but what it led to was a whole new world.
我结识了新朋友。
I met new friends.
我不得不搬到一个新的地方。
I had to move to a new place.
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