曼城：英超接下来该怎么办？

这个BBC播客在英国以外的地区由广告支持。

This BBC podcast is supported by ads outside The UK.

欢迎来到闹鬼图书馆。

Welcome to the haunted library.

你是来寻找故事的吗？

Have you come in search of a tale?

这个播客邀请你在书架间浏览，找到那些在你离开后仍会久久萦绕心头的故事。

This podcast invites you to browse the shelves and find stories that will linger long after you've left this place.

从哥特式杰作到廉价的惊悚小说，我是科林·摩根，每周两次新剧集，和我一起探索吧。

From gothic masterpieces to pulpy penny dreadfuls, join me, Colin Morgan, with new episodes twice a week.

无论你在哪里收听播客，都能找到《闹鬼图书馆》。

Find the haunted library wherever you get your podcasts.

你好。

Hi.

我是德莉丝·劳埃德，你正在收听的是《超越比分》，这是BBC世界服务播客，讲述记分牌之外的体育故事。

I'm Delyth Lloyd, and you're listening to More Than The Score, the BBC World Service podcast telling sports stories from beyond the scoresheet.

今天我们要讨论的是，曼城卷入的财务丑闻可能对英超联赛产生什么影响，以及它在有史以来最大的体育丑闻中能排到第几位。

Today, we're asking what impact the financial scandal engulfing Manchester City could have on the Premier League, and where does it rank amongst the biggest sporting scandals of all time?

曼城已经提出上诉，此前一个独立委员会认定，该俱乐部在2009年到2018年这九年期间，违反了英超联赛的财务规定，所有相关指控都成立。

Now Manchester City have lodged an appeal after an independent commission found the club guilty of all charges relating to breaches of the Premier League's financial regulations across a nine year period between two thousand and nine and twenty eighteen.

调查发现，该俱乐部通过虚假的赞助协议人为抬高收入，而且是在那段时间里这么做的。

The club was found to have artificially inflated revenue through sham sponsorship agreements and during the period in question.

在此期间，曼城在转会上的花费大约为15亿美元，赢得了八座奖杯，其中包括三次英超冠军。

City spent around 1,500,000,000 US dollars on transfers and won eight trophies, including three Premier League titles.

曼城一直坚称自己是清白的，在一份简短声明中，他们表示委员会的裁决存在明显的法律、原则和事实错误，因此是不安全的。

City have always protested their innocence and in a short statement they said the Commission's ruling contained clear material errors of law, principle and fact and is unsafe.

那么，这个案子对英超联赛的破坏性有多大呢？

So how damaging could this case be for the Premier League?

它可能对足球之外产生什么影响？

What impact could it have beyond football?

以及它在有史以来最大的体育丑闻中能排到第几位？

And where does it rank in the list of biggest sports scandals ever?

我很高兴地告诉大家，今天请到了利物浦大学足球金融学教授、《足球的价格》播客主持人基兰·马奎尔。

I'm pleased to say I'm joined by Professor of Football Finance at University of Liverpool and host of The Price of Football podcast, Kieran Maguire.

基兰，你好。

Hello to you, Kieran.

你好，德莉丝。

Hi, Delyth.

很高兴你能来。

Great to have you on.

还有西蒙·查德威克，里昂商学院欧亚体育学教授。

And Simon Chadwick, Professor of Afro Eurasian Sports at Emlyon Business School.

西蒙，你好。

Hello to you, Simon.

你好。

Hi.

谢谢邀请。

Thanks for having me.

基兰，我得先问你一下，提醒我们曼城到底被认定犯了哪些错？

Kieran, I have to ask you, first of all, though, just to remind us what Manchester City have been found guilty of?

嗯，仲裁小组认定曼城大致有三个问题。

Well, the commissioners found City guilty of broadly three issues.

首先，从老板那里拿钱，却假装是赞助商的钱。

First of all, taking money from the owner and pretending that that's money from sponsors.

这之所以重要，是因为在成本控制规则和盈利与可持续性规则里，赞助收入是算进去的，而老板给的钱不算。

And the reason why that's important is that when you look at the cost control rules, the profitability and sustainability rules, sponsorship income is included within those, whereas money from owners is excluded.

所以这虚增了曼城超过十亿美元的收入。

So that's inflated Citi's revenues by over $1,000,000,000.

其次，还有账外支付。

Secondly, there have been payments off book.

我觉得这里面提到了罗伯托·曼奇尼。

I I think Roberto Mancini has been named in this.

所以，曼城被认定在给主教练和其他员工发工资时，一部分走正常工资系统，但同时也通过第三方来支付这些人的钱。

So here, Citi being found guilty of paying the manager and other members of staff an amount of money which goes through their payroll, but also using third parties to pay these people.

这样一来，曼城的成本又被压低了，这对满足成本控制规则来说确实很有用。

And that's deflated cities costs again, that's really useful when trying to satisfy the cost control rules.

第三，他们被证实没有配合英超对他们财务事务的调查。

And thirdly, they've been proved guilty of non cooperation with the Premier League's investigations into their financial affairs.

我也得说一句，曼城表示他们提交了大量无可辩驳的证据来支持自己的所有立场。

And I must say as well, Manchester City have said that they filed a comprehensive body of irrefutable evidence that exists in support of all its positions.

不过我也看到很多球迷在争论，说他们花钱是为了跟那些更老牌的俱乐部竞争，对某些支持者来说，本质上就是这样。

I've seen a lot around though that that many fans, football fans, are potentially arguing, well, they've spent money to compete with more established clubs, in essence, for for some supporters.

他们可能会问，基兰，这有什么大不了的？

They may be asking Kieran, what is the big deal?

为什么这事这么重要？

Why does this matter?

关于财务控制的规则应该如何计算和应用，那是另一个讨论话题。

There's a separate discussion on how rules in terms of, financial controls should be calculated and applied.

有一种很有力的观点认为，现有的这套规则是反竞争的，因为它们倾向于维持现状。

And there is a very good argument for saying that the the present set of rules are anti competitive in the sense that they tend to reinforce the status quo.

但曼城是签了协议的。

But Manchester City signed up to a set of rules.

这就好比我在限速60公里的地方开到90公里，然后说90公里其实挺合理的，这说不过去。

It's it's no point me saying that I was driving at, at 90 kilometers an hour in an area where the limit 60 kilometers an hour, but 90 kilometers an hour is is a reasonable speed to go at.

这差不多就是曼城的说法。

And that's sort of part of the city argument.

规则是定下来的，而且曼城自己也投了赞成票。

The rules have been a determined and also Manchester City voted in favor of these rules.

所以他们看起来确实是在搞双重标准。

So it does seem that they are operating double standards.

他们让那些有野心、有抱负的老板更难去竞争，因为足球是个烧钱的行业。

They're making it more difficult for those clubs who have ambitious and aspirational owners to try to compete because football's a money industry.

人才跟着钱走，所以你得在球员引进、转会费、教练这些上面花更多钱，然后又不让别人也这么做。

Talent follows the money, and therefore, you need to be able to spend more money on player recruitment and transfer fees and managers and so on, and then to prevent other clubs from doing the same.

西蒙，中东那边怎么看这个情况？

Simon, how is this situation being viewed in The Middle East?

我觉得直到最近，这件事都不太被公开或明确地讨论。

I think up until, you know, kind of fairly recently, not particularly openly or explicitly.

而且可能有几个原因。

And there are probably several reasons for that.

我们往往认为，不仅是阿布扎比，其他海湾国家也一样，足球就是那里最重要的事情。

We tend to think that not just Abu Dhabi, but other Gulf states, football is the be all and end all of what's happening there.

我们刚听到基兰提到一个数字，比如十亿英镑。

And we've just heard Kieran use one figure, £1,000,000,000 for example.

但在海湾地区的大局里，那只是小钱。

In the great scheme of things in The Gulf, that's small beer.

关键要记住的是，花在足球俱乐部上的钱，跟花在能源转型、人工智能或基础设施建设上的钱相比，根本不算什么。

And that's the crucial thing to keep in mind, is spending on a football club compared to the amount of money that is being spent on, for example, energy transition or on artificial intelligence or on the creation of infrastructure.

这些领域的花费，跟足球相比，远远超过了该地区公众关注的问题。

These things, by comparison with football, far outweigh issues of public interest in in the region.

所以我觉得这是第一点。

So I I think that's the first thing.

我们不能想当然地认为海湾地区的人、媒体甚至政府，会像我们一样痴迷于他们在足球上的投入。

We we we just can't assume that that people and the media and and even governments in the Gulf Region are obsessed by their spending on football in the same way as we are.

不过，我觉得还有一点，就是海湾地区的人很爱面子。

I think the other thing, however, is is that in The Gulf, people don't like to lose face.

我们经常听说中国人爱面子，但其实这……

We very often hear about the Chinese don't like losing face, but it's a...

这其实是亚洲人普遍的特点，这么说虽然有点笼统。

It's an Asian characteristic more generally, and it's a really broad and sweeping statement to make.

但我觉得，无论是在公共生活还是家庭生活中，面子都比在英国或欧洲重要得多。

But I think facing public life, facing domestic life, plays a far greater role than it does, for example, in Britain or in Europe.

所以简单来说，谁会通过抱怨、威胁或者举报来让自己难堪呢？

So in simple terms, why would you attract attention to yourself by mumbling and complaining and and threatening and reporting?

所以，这种保全面子的行为也很重要。

And so, you know, this kind of face saving behavior is important too.

我觉得与此相关的还有一点，就是国家——不管它跟曼城有没有关系——

I think also linked to that as well is clearly the state, whatever its connections to Manchester City or whatever connections it doesn't have to Manchester City.

你知道，同样地，它也不会想引起人们对那些事情的注意。

You know, again, it's not gonna wanna draw attention to those things.

你明白吗？

You know?

通常，在像阿布扎比这样的地方，国家会给出答案或做出决定，然后其他所有人都遵从。

Normally, in in places like Abu Dhabi, the state gives an answer or the state makes a decision, gives an answer, and everybody else complies with that.

但这里显然不是这种情况。

But that's clearly not the case here.

所以，如果你愿意这么说的话，海湾地区的治理文化跟欧洲的有些不同。

So if you like, the the the culture of governance is is somewhat different in the Gulf Region than it is, for example, in Europe.

我想知道，西蒙，这整个情况会对英国和阿联酋之间的关系产生什么样的影响。

I wonder, what kind of impact, Simon, that this whole situation could have on relations between The UK and The UAE.

这是个大问题。

This is the big issue.

到目前为止，基兰和我都没提到的一件事，就是曼城、欧足联和体育仲裁法庭之间的案件，曼城表现出非常强烈的意愿，要一路追查到底。

Of the things neither Kieran nor I have mentioned so far is the case involving Manchester City, UEFA, and the Court for Arbitration in Sports, which Manchester City showed a very strong predisposition to pursue right to the very end.

而且我觉得我们现在开始看到一些早期迹象，那就是曼城俱乐部，它的领导层、管理层、代表、律师、老板，都会把这件事追究到底。

And I think what we're we're now beginning to see the early signs of is Manchester City, its leaders, its managers, its representatives, lawyers, owners will pursue this to the bitter end.

这对英国可能意味着什么呢？举个例子，自从阿布扎比收购曼城以来，阿联酋已经向英国投资了300亿英镑。

And what that could mean for Britain is, for example, Britain pretty much over the period since Abu Dhabi actually acquired Manchester City, The UAE has invested £30,000,000,000 into Britain.

别忘了，其中一部分钱是在2008年金融危机期间投给巴克莱银行的。

Now keep in mind, some of this money was invested into Barclays Bank during the two thousand eight financial crash.

所以阿布扎比实际上阻止了一家英国金融机构倒闭。

So Abu Dhabi actually stopped a British financial institution going down.

你可以想象，那在2008年对英国来说会是灾难性的。

As you can imagine, that would have been catastrophic for Britain in 2008.

但之后，当然，我们经历了脱欧，以及脱欧带来的经济影响。

But subsequent to that, we've, of course, had Brexit and the the economic impact of Brexit.

所以现在的情况是，一个外部投资者，另一个国家，对英国投下了信任票，把钱送到我们这边来。但还有一点要记住，阿联酋是英国在中东最大的贸易伙伴，不只是海湾地区，而是整个中东。

So what you have here is is an external investor, another country putting a vote of confidence in Britain, sending money out in our way, but also, and keep this in mind, The United Arab Emirates is Britain's biggest trade partner in The Middle East, not just in the Gulf Region, in The Middle East.

所以在所有这些关于曼城的兴奋、喧嚣和猜测背后，其实有一些相当严峻的经济和政治现实，而这些现实最终，我相信，会影响这个案子的结果。

So amid all of this excitement and uproar and speculation about Manchester City, there are some pretty harsh economic and political realities sitting behind all of the discussions that ultimately, I believe, will influence the outcome of this case.

我也在想英超这个品牌的问题，基兰，因为英超太庞大了。

I wonder about the Premier League brand as well, Kieran, because the Premier League is huge.

它在全世界都很有名。

It's world renowned.

它是世界上最大的足球联赛。

It's it's the biggest football league in the world.

这整个局面会对英超的品牌造成多大的损害呢？

How damaging could this whole situation be for the brand of the Premier League?

我觉得实际上根本不会受影响。

I think actually it won't be impacted at all.

而且，你知道，就像西蒙说得对，足球是个小行业，但声音很大。

And, you know, as Simon rightly says, football's a small industry, but it has a big voice.

说到英超，说到所有足球，我们往往会发现，大家的记性都很短。

Now when it comes to the Premier League and when it comes to all football, what we tend to find is that we've all got very short memories.

而且焦点会转移到下一轮比赛上，包括一场会很有意思的比赛，利物浦在安菲尔德对阵曼城。

And the focus will be on the next round of matches, which includes, and this is going to be an intriguing one, Liverpool versus Manchester City at Anfield.

然后所有的焦点都会集中在球场上的表现上。

And there'll be all the focus on what's happening on the pitch.

所有的焦点都会集中在现场观众的喧闹声上。

There'll be all the focus on the noise from the people attending.

周末的比赛会成为焦点，因为还有俱乐部想在本赛季赢得英超冠军。

And the matches at the weekend will then form the focal point because there's still clubs wanting to win the Premier League this season.

还有俱乐部在努力避免降级，争取欧冠资格等等。

There's still clubs trying to avoid relegation to qualify for the Champions League and so on.

我们在足球方面往往视野很窄，只盯着眼前。

And we we tend to be sort of very narrow and tunnel visioned when it comes to football.

而这个故事爆出的时机非常巧妙，因为它发生在国际比赛日刚开始或接近开始的时候，所以引起了大量关注。

And this particular story broke at the perfect time in terms of the amount of attention that it generated in the sense that it was at the start or near near the start of an international break.

当时没有太多其他新闻可写，所以人们就把注意力都放在这件事上了。

There wasn't a lot else to write about, and people therefore focused their time on that.

一旦我们回到正常的比赛节奏，比如哨声一响，大家关注的就是胜负、扑救、进球这些了。

Once we start to get back to the normal business of, you know, the whistle goes, it's about wins, defeats, saves, goals, and so on.

我觉得大家的注意力会转移开。

I think the attention will move away.

我们确实有一些关于曼城的日期需要关注。

We do have some some dates that we'll be we'll be focusing on in terms of Manchester City.

所以这件事肯定不会就这么被遗忘。

So the story certainly won't be forgotten.

而且看起来上诉必须在12月24日之前审理，我怀疑如果那天真发生什么事，我和西蒙的圣诞节可能就要泡汤了。

And does look as if the appeal now has to be heard by the December 24, which I suspect could ruin the Christmas of myself and Simon should should something happen on that particular date.

而且听证会之后的判决，我想大概要等三十天。

And and the and the hearing, the verdict, I think, is due thirty days later from that.

所以还有很长的路要走，但英超的品牌，不管你支持曼城、利物浦、切尔西还是阿森纳，你对俱乐部的支持和忠诚不会因为这件事而减少。

So there's still a long way to go, but the brand of of the Premier League, you support Manchester City or Liverpool or Chelsea or Arsenal, and your support and your devotion to your individual club will not diminish just because of that.

我们……

We...

我们看看意大利和尤文图斯的例子，那边并没有受到影响。

We've seen in the case of Italy and Juventus, there wasn't wasn't an impact there.

我们在苏格兰足球和流浪者足球俱乐部的案例中也看到了类似情况，但他们被降了三个级别。

We've seen in the case of Scottish football and and Rangers football club, but they were dropped down three divisions.

同样，整体上座率和收视率都在上升，等等。

Again, the the broader attendance these are up, viewing figures are up, so on.

所以看起来事情还是会继续下去。

So it it it seems to carry on regardless.

如果我可以补充一下基兰说的。

If I could just, add to what Kieran has said.

我觉得他说得完全正确。

I think he was absolutely right.

这一切的时机非常有趣，因为那不仅仅是国际比赛日。

There's something very interesting about the timing of all of this because it wasn't just an international break.

那是一个异常长的国际比赛日。

It was an abnormally long international break.

所以，你知道，你会怎么做？

So, you know, what do you do?

有趣的是，这件事不是通过泄密曝光的。

And and it's interesting that that the story broke not through leaks.

而是通过消息来源。

It was through sources.

我听说这些消息来源在向记者透露信息。

And I'm told that those sources were briefing journalists.

这其实是在填补空白。

This was an attempt to to fill space.

我觉得过去七天里有趣的是，这个案子的每一方，你知道，周一轮到你说。

And what I found interesting about the last seven days is every single party involved in this case, you know, it's your turn Monday to speak.

好的。

Okay.

然后周二轮到你说。

So it's your turn Tuesday to speak.

好的。

Okay.

所以轮到星期三你发言了。

So it's your turn Wednesday to speak.

所以整个过程都有点像是精心安排的，我觉得这是因为其中有一些敏感的地方。

So there's something incredibly stage managed about all of this process, and and I think that's because there are some sensitivities around it.

我觉得在时间上还要补充一点，当然就是安迪·伯纳姆这个因素，我们之前还没提到过。

I think the other thing to to add to this in terms of timing is, of course, the Andy Burnham factor, which we've not talked about so far.

你知道，伯纳姆即将迎来他作为首相的第一个完整议会会期。

You know, Burnham is heading into his first full parliamentary session as prime minister.

他七月份当选的时候，大家都在度假。

When he was elected back in back in July, everybody was going on holiday.

考虑到伯纳姆和阿联酋之间的关系，以及目前围绕曼彻斯特议程的各种讨论，不仅涉及这个问题，还涉及更广泛的英国经济。

And given the nature of the relationship between Burnham and The United Arab Emirates and the whole Manchester agenda that's circling around at the moment around not just this issue, but around the British economy more generally.

所以我觉得这也是其中的一部分。

So I think that was also part of it.

关于这对英超联赛的影响，我完全同意基兰的看法。

To the point about how will it impact for the Premier League, I agree with Kieran completely.

我再举个例子，就是唐纳德·特朗普那件事。

Another example I would give is the whole case of Donald Trump.

当时大家都说特朗普会毁了世界杯，因凡蒂诺也会毁了世界杯，比赛一开始肯定会一团糟。

Donald Trump was gonna destroy the World Cup, and Infantino was gonna destroy the World Cup, and the start to the tournament would be absolutely disastrous.

但结果呢，前三四周其实挺顺利的，一直到后来巴洛贡那个案子之前，我记得那时候可能都已经打到四分之一决赛了。

And yet for the first three or four weeks, I think, and actually until the following Balogun case, by which time I think we're into the quarterfinals maybe by then, if I remember correctly.

说实话，那段时间真的风平浪静，完全出乎我们的意料。

You know, it was actually plain sailing, and we didn't expect that.

我想说的是，一旦哨声响起，人们就会把其他事情抛到脑后。

And what I'm trying to say is when the whistle blows, people forget about other things.

最后我想说的是，像基兰和我这样的人，确实有点活在自己的小圈子里。

And the final thing that I'll say is people like Kieran and me, we do tend to live in a bit a little bit of a bubble, really.

我们总觉得这些事情特别重大，特别要紧。

You know, and we tend to think like these things are, you know, big and really important.

但实际上，东京的学生、拉各斯的学生，还有华盛顿特区的学生，他们真的不太在乎这种事情。

But the reality for the school kids of Tokyo and the school kids of Lagos, you know, the school kids of Washington DC, they don't really care about, you know, this kind of thing.

他们想看球员，想看很多进球。

They wanna watch players, and they wanna watch lots of goals.

他们想看伟大的球队。

They wanna watch great teams.

而且他们会继续这样做。

And that's what they will continue to do.

而且我觉得，尤其是对于海外观众来说，我们现在讨论的很多问题，他们根本不在意。

And I think certainly in terms of the overseas audience, a lot of the issues that we're now discussing are just passing them by.

欢迎来到闹鬼的图书馆。

Welcome to the haunted library.

你是来找故事的吗？

Have you come in search of a tale?

这个播客邀请你在书架间浏览，找到那些在你离开后仍会久久萦绕的故事。

This podcast invites you to browse the shelves and find stories that will linger long after you've left this place.

从哥特式杰作到廉价的恐怖小说，我是科林·摩根，每周两次新集，和我一起吧。

From gothic masterpieces to pulpy penny dreadfuls, join me, Colin Morgan, with new episodes twice a week.

无论你在哪里收听播客，都能找到《闹鬼图书馆》。

Find the haunted library wherever you get your podcasts.

你正在收听的是BBC世界服务的《不止于比分》。

You're listening to More Than a Score from the BBC World Service.

我是德莉丝·劳埃德，今天我们将与基兰·马奎尔教授和西蒙·查德威克教授一起，讨论席卷曼城俱乐部的财务丑闻可能对英超联赛产生的影响。

I'm Delyth Lloyd and today we're discussing the impact that the financial scandal engulfing Manchester City could have on the Premier League with Professor Kieran Maguire and Professor Simon Chadwick.

正如我提到的，曼城已经提出上诉，但基兰，我一直在阅读关于他们可能面临的各种处罚的文章。

City have appealed, as I've mentioned, but I've been reading about how many different punishments Kieran they could potentially face.

那么，既然如此，对于听众朋友们来说，曼城可能面临哪些处罚，这些处罚的可能性又有多大呢？

So so with that being said, to anyone listening, what what kind of punishments could City be hit with, and how likely are those punishments?

嗯，如果你看看英超联赛的手册，我和西蒙仔细翻阅过，它有几百页长。

Well, if you take a look at the Premier League handbook, myself and Simon have thumbed through it diligently, and it's many hundreds of pages long.

而且它……

And and it...

我们……

We...

我可不会推荐它作为……

I wouldn't recommend it as a...

消遣读物。

For light reading.

但委员会拥有无限权力，所以我们得找先例。

But the commission has unlimited powers, so we therefore look for precedent.

我们确实有先例，就是今年早些时候切尔西因为前政权时期的违规行为被处以罚款。

Now we we do have precedent in what happened with Chelsea earlier this year when they were given a financial penalty for their misdemeanors under the under the previous regime.

那部分是因为切尔西的新老板主动自首了。

And that was partly due to the fact that, Chelsea's new owners handed themselves in.

他们……

They they...

在尽职调查期间，他们发现了异常付款，英超联赛、足协和欧足联都认为这应该受到经济处罚。

During the period of due diligence, they found unusual payments, and both the Premier League and the Football Association and UEFA came to the conclusion that this warranted a fiscal penalty.

曼城如果只需要付罚款，他们会很高兴的。

Manchester City would be delighted if they only had to pay a fiscal penalty.

但如果曼城违反了盈利和可持续性规则，而且根据报告他们显然违反了，那我们就进入扣分的范畴了。

But if Manchester City have broken the profitability and sustainability rules, and they clearly have on the basis of the report, then we move into the territory of points deductions.

我们已经看到诺丁汉森林、埃弗顿和莱斯特城都因为单赛季的单一违规被扣分。

We have had Nottingham Forest, have had Everton and Leicester City all being given points deductions for single offences involving single seasons.

曼城的违规行为跨越了九年时间。

Manchester City's offences took place over a nine year period.

所以，从逻辑上讲，处罚应该是埃弗顿和森林案例中扣分的倍数，我记得那分别是六分和四分。

So therefore, logic would say it has to be a multiple of the points deductions that we saw in the case of Everton and Forrest, which I think was six and four points respectively.

所以这很可能意味着要扣掉两位数的分数。

So that would suggest a significant double digits points deduction.

如果不配合调查，如果我们看到的情况是故意歪曲曼城的财务状况，那这就是加重因素，可能导致更严厉的处罚，比如降级到英格兰足球联赛的两到三个级别以下。

If the noncooperation, if the fact what we appear to have here is a deliberate attempt to misrepresent Manchester City's finances, that is an aggregating factor, and that could result in a far more severe penalty such as demotion to two to three divisions into the lower tiers of the English football league.

值得注意的是，去年英超和英格兰足球联赛都修改了章程，以便接受对方机构做出的处罚决定。

And it's noticeable that last year, both the Premier League and the EFL changed their constitutions in such a way that they would accept the punishments determined by the other body.

这在历史上一直是个有点棘手的问题。

That historically has always been a bit of a problem area.

所以曼城可能会被降级到……

So Manchester City could be sent down in...

降到英乙，然后由英足联决定是否接纳他们。

Into league two, and then it would be the EFL's decision whether or not to accept them.

有些俱乐部老板会热烈欢迎他们，因为那会是本赛季最大的看点。

And some club owners would welcome them with open arms because would be the biggest paid air of the season.

其他人可能就不那么欢迎了。

Others, perhaps less so.

他们可能会从不同的角度来看待这件事。

They they they might look at it through a different lens.

我想这就是个大问题，对吧？

I suppose that's the big question, isn't it?

而且，西蒙，就像你提到的，有些球迷认为这件事远远超出了足球的范畴。

And, Simon, I think as you've alluded to, some fans believe this goes way above football.

那么，西蒙，你觉得曼城被踢出英超的可能性有多大？

How likely is it then do you think, Simon, that that the club will be kicked out of the Premier League?

别抱太大希望。

Don't hold your breath.

这就是我的回答。

That's my response.

别抱太大希望。

Don't hold your breath.

我们生活在一个交易比规则更重要的世界里，而交易至上理念的主要倡导者就是唐纳德·特朗普。

We live in a world where deals, not rules, are important, and the principal exponent of the deals, not rules school of thought is Donald Trump.

你知道吗？

You know?

所以，忘掉那些已经存在的规则，也忘掉你当初签署的那些条款。

So forget everything that that already exists, and forget those rules that you signed up for.

我们来谈个交易吧。

Let's make a deal.

而且，不只是特朗普在推行这种理念。

And and it's not just Trump who who is pursuing that doctrine.

我觉得这就是当今世界的本质。

I think that is the nature of the world nowadays.

所以我认为，最终总会找到一条中间路线。

So I think, ultimately, there will be a middle way somehow.

而且我们在这里还没怎么聊到英超联赛本身。

And and we've not really talked about here the Premier League itself.

我觉得英超现在处境很艰难。

I think the Premier League is in a difficult position.

你知道，它夹在中间，进退两难，但如果你回顾1990年的《足球未来蓝图》。

You know, it's caught between a rock and a hard place, but, if you go back to the 1990 blueprint for the future of football.

你知道，就像基兰和我翻阅英超文件一样，我们也是《1990年足球未来蓝图》的热心读者，那份蓝图基本上就是说，成立一个英超联赛，它就能赚钱。

Now, you know, just as Kieran and me have flicked through the Premier League documents, we're also keen readers, avid readers of the blueprint for the future of football from 1990, which basically said, set up a Premier League, and it will make money.

而事实也正是如此。

And that's exactly what it's done.

所以问题是，现在谁会去杀掉那只下金蛋的鹅呢？

So the question is, who right now is gonna kill the goose that laid the gold leg?

这是首先要说的。

And that's that's the first thing to say.

但我觉得，过去三十五年里我们也意识到，英超联赛还有巨大的软实力价值。

But I think as we we realized over the last thirty five years, there is tremendous soft power value in the Premier League too.

所以，英超联赛真正承受不起的，是失去一个非常成功、在国际上广为人知的成员，这个联赛让英国能在世界各地做各种事情。

And what what the Premier League can therefore ill afford really is to lose a member that is hugely successful, internationally well known in a league that enables Britain to do all kinds of things around the world.

你知道吗？

You know?

而且我知道，每次我出国，从机场出来的路上，我做的第一件事就是和出租车司机聊天，他们总是问我，你支持英超球队吗？

And I know, you know, whenever I go overseas, the first thing that I do is talk to the taxi driver on the way from the airport, and they always ask me, do you support a Premier League team?

你看，这就是英国性的精髓，我真的很难相信会有一个严厉的结果。

You know, so this is this is the quintessence of Britishness, and I really find it very, very hard to believe that there is gonna be a draconian outcome to this.

我认为，最终这会变成地缘政治问题，会有一个外交谈判的结果，但不会让球迷满意。

I think, ultimately, it's gonna get geopolitical, and there will be a diplomatically negotiated outcome that will not satisfy fans.

可能也不会让阿布扎比满意，但我们都能够离开现场，然后想，好吧。

It may not satisfy Abu Dhabi for that matter, but we'll all be able to walk away from the scene and think, well, okay.

我们从中得到了一些东西，虽然不是最好的结果，但至少我们有所收获。

We got something from it, if not the best outcome, but, you know, at least we got something out of it.

不过，基兰，先听我说一句，考虑到西蒙刚才说的。

Humor me for a moment, though, Kieran, bearing in mind what what Simon's just said.

如果他们真的被开除，像埃尔林·哈兰德这样的球员去踢英格兰低级别联赛，这确实很难想象，对吧？

If they were to get expelled, the idea of of players such as Erling Haaland playing in the lower leagues of English football, that is hard to imagine to be fair, isn't it?

是的。

Yes.

但我觉得西蒙说的非常务实、非常实际，而且它……

But I think what Simon says is very, very pragmatic and practical, and and it...

这体现了他对更广泛的地缘政治问题的洞察力和了解。

It's a sign of his insight and his knowledge of of broader geopolitical issues.

埃尔林·哈兰德绝不可能一年后的某个周二晚上出现在纽波特的球场上。

There is no way that Erling Haaland will be turning up in Newport on a Tuesday night in a year's time.

他可以离开这家俱乐部，而且这……

He will be able to move on from the club, and it's in...

曼城可能付不起他的工资，倒不是说担心在低级别联赛违反规则，但他们确实有一个庞大的阵容。

It will be Manchester City couldn't afford his wages in in terms of not worrying about a breach of the rules in the lower leagues, but they do they do have a a big squad.

我觉得这两支球队的构成会发生翻天覆地的变化。

I think there there would be a seismic change in terms of the makeup of the two.

但它仍然是曼城。

But it'll still be Manchester City.

如果你是曼城球迷，你身上有纹身。

If you were a Manchester City fan, you've got the tattoo.

你有球衣。

You've got the shirt.

你仍然梦想着保罗·迪科夫在1999年英甲联赛附加赛决赛中的表现，那可以说是曼城俱乐部历史上最重要的一场比赛，等等。

You still dream of Paul Dickoff in the '19, was it nineteen ninety nine league one playoff final, arguably Manchester City's most important match in the history of the club, and so on.

所以，是的，我认为哈兰德不会太担心这个。

So, yes, I I Erling Haaland won't be worrying too much about this.

他的重心会放在他的短期、中期和长期职业生涯上。

His focus will be on on his, short, medium, and long term career.

如果曼城还在英超，那哈兰德很可能就会留在曼城。

And if Manchester City are in the Premier League, then there's good chance that we'll be with Manchester City.

如果曼城不在英超了，那他的经纪人就会向曼城和其他俱乐部明确表示，他想转会去别的地方。

If Manchester City are not in the Premier League, then his representatives will be making it fairly clear to both the city itself and other football clubs that he wants to move on elsewhere.

而且他的合同里甚至可能有一条诚信条款，因为英超的标准合同里规定，俱乐部必须时刻规范自己的行为。

And there could even be a bad faith clause in his contract, because the the Premier League is standard contracts, and it says that clubs abide to conduct themselves appropriately at all times.

嗯，我跟一些体育律师聊过。

Well, I've spoken to some sports lawyers.

他们说，俱乐部可能违反了合同，所以对俱乐部来说，最好的做法就是尽可能多地卖掉球员。

They say, well, the club could be in breach of that contract, so it'll be in the best interest of the club to move on as many players as possible.

补充一下基兰说的，我们肯定会盯着球员们，看他们是不是突然订了一辆离开曼彻斯特的单程大巴。

Just to add to what Kieran said, mean, inevitably, we're gonna watch the players and see if suddenly they book a a coach, a one way coach out of Manchester.

我们就知道麻烦要来了。

We know that there's trouble in the offing.

但也要留意商业合作伙伴的动向。

But also keep an eye out on the commercial partners too.

到目前为止，我们还没有看到任何商业合作伙伴表态，而且其中一些商业合作伙伴并不是来自海湾地区的。

So far, we've not had any of the commercial partners, and some of those commercial partners are not from the Gulf Region.

他们来自世界其他地方。

They are from other parts of the world.

没有人公开发表声明，表示他们对曼彻斯特发生的事情感到担忧。

Nobody has has issued a public statement to suggest that they are concerned by what's happening in in Manchester.

这可能有一些原因。

And there could be some reasons for that.

显然，他们不想引起关注，因为社交媒体往往容易失控。

Obviously, don't wanna draw attention to this because social media tends to to get out of control.

但我们越来越发现，如果体育界发生了违法或不端行为，商业合作伙伴的行为方式就是预示接下来会发生什么的一个指标。

But increasingly what we're finding is if there are crimes and misdemeanors take place in sport, one of the barometers of what's about to happen comes in terms of how commercial partners behave.

而现实是，就在上周这件事还在进行的时候——我说这话时都忍不住笑了——杜蕾斯宣布了与曼城在中国的最新合作。考虑到这对我们的财务公平竞赛案可能带来的影响，我觉得这真是最黑暗的幽默了。

And the reality is even last week as this was going on, and I think I've got a smile when I say this, Durex announced its latest partnership with Manchester City in China, which in terms of protective measures given the implications for our financial fair play case, I think this is humour at its darkest I think.

但尽管如此，随着赞助商签约，这几乎就像是投了一张信任票。

But nevertheless, as sponsors sign up, you know, it does almost serve as a vote of confidence.

如果他们开始撤资或者终止合作，那才是我真正担心曼城的时候。

If they start to migrate or they're terminating their deals, that's when I would be really worried if I was Manchester City fine.

基兰，我正想问，你之前好像提到了流浪者队。

Kieran, I was gonna ask, I think you touched on Rangers a little bit before.

这个案子确实很复杂，就像我们刚才讨论的那样。

This is this is quite the complex case as we've discussed.

你以前在足球界见过类似的情况吗？

Have you ever seen anything comparable to it in football before?

从财务角度来看，我觉得这可能是最大的案子。

From a financial point of view, I think it's likely to be the biggest.

流浪者队是税务问题，导致公司清算，但俱乐部活了下来。

Rangers was a tax issue, which resulted in problems and the company going to liquidation, but the club survived.

在意大利，尤文图斯被降级，但那是因为操纵裁判。

We have seen in Italy, Juventus being demoted, but that was to do with influencing referees.

所以……

So...

而且从某种意义上说，那件事更隐蔽一些。

And that was slightly more insidious in certain way.

说到底，这其实是会计师之间的争论。

Ultimately, this is an argument between accountants.

曼城队的会计师用一种方式来看待这些交易，他们认为自己掌握了无可辩驳的证据，而英超联盟则持另一种看法。

Manchester City's accountants are viewing the transactions in one manner, which forms the irrefutable evidence that they claim to have, and the Premier League's taking an alternative view.

我们就在这个针尖上跳舞，作为一个教会计的人，我觉得这很有意思，而且两边都有道理。

And we are dancing on that particular pinhead, and as somebody that teaches accounting for a living, it's fascinating, and it's arguable either way.

但其中一种做法似乎比另一种更合乎逻辑。

But one way would appear to be more logical to apply than the other.

西蒙，你觉得呢？

Simon, what about for you?

不只是足球，从全球范围来看，你记忆中最重大的体育丑闻是什么？这件事能排到第几位？

And I don't just mean football now, but in terms of the biggest sporting scandal that you can remember globally, where does this rank?

我真的想不出有什么能与之相比的。

I can't really think of anything comparable.

我立刻想到的是十几、二十年前职业自行车界发生的事，那时候明显存在系统性的兴奋剂使用，而有些人也会把曼城的行为称为财务兴奋剂。

The one thing that immediately springs to mind is what happened in professional cycling ten, fifteen, twenty years ago, where you have obviously systematic doping and obviously some people would call what the city has been doing financial doping.

所以这两者可以直接对比。

So there is a direct comparison there.

比如想想兰斯·阿姆斯特朗，他连续几个赛季都是领先车手，成为破纪录的环法冠军，而且他的代言组合也反映了他的运动地位。

If we think about people like Lance Armstrong, for example, who went seasons being the leading rider and he became the record breaking Tour de France winner and obviously had an endorsement portfolio that reflected his athletic stature.

但在足球界，我真的想不出有什么类似的案例。

But in football, I I can't really think about any comparable case.

基兰提到的意大利电话门事件，尤文图斯那件事，但你知道，那跟这个比起来还是相对小规模的。

I mean, the the one that Kieran mentioned, Calciopoli in in Italy with with Juventus, but, you know, that that was was, again, was relatively small by comparison with this.

关于尤文图斯那个案例，我想说的是，在被降级之后，尤文图斯确实花了好一段时间才重新站稳脚跟，恢复元气。

I mean, what I would say about that Juventus case is that following demotion, it did take quite a while for Juventus to reestablish itself and get itself back onto an even keel.

所以，如果曼城真的面临那种灾难性的局面，我认为我们不能对俱乐部能多快重新回到英超顶级行列做任何假设。

So, you know, if that apocalyptic scenario did happen for Manchester City, I don't think we can make any assumptions about how quickly the club would reestablish itself at the top of the, the Premier League.

我们当然要再次强调，曼城坚称自己清白，并且正在对判决提出上诉。

We should obviously stress again that Manchester City maintain their innocence and are appealing against the guilty verdict.

我先问问你们两位，基兰先来。

I'll just ask you both, Kieran first.

你觉得这个案子，比如说二十年后，我们还会一直在谈论吗？

Is this case something that you think we'll all still be talking about in, say, twenty years' time?

我觉得不会。

I don't think so.

足球会继续向前发展。

Football will move on.

会有其他事情让我们对这项运动感到兴奋。

There will be other things to excite us about the game.

足球是生活中最好的逃避方式。

Football is the great escape in life.

朝九晚五的枯燥，足球带来的一切，兴奋、友情、回忆、经历，对我来说，生活中没有其他东西能比得上，我想这就是我们会关注的，因为这就是我们爱上足球的原因。

The drudgery of the nine to five, everything that football brings, the excitement, the camaraderie, the memories, the experiences, it's like no other thing in life for me, and and I think that's what we'll focus on because that's that's what we fell in love with.

我觉得会有像基兰和我这样的人，可能会写书来记录这件事，可能还会在英格兰北部的某个酒吧角落里继续喋喋不休。

I think there will be people like Kieran and me who will probably write books about it, will still be jabbering on probably in the corner of a pub somewhere in the North Of England.

但我觉得对绝大多数人来说，他们不会记得。

But I think for the vast majority of people, they they won't be.

而且有一件事经常让我惊讶，比如说，想想1985年的海塞尔惨案，或者想想1990年英格兰打进世界杯半决赛，随着新一代人的成长，他们真的不太知道这些事，也不太谈论这些，他们更关心当下。

And and one of the things that often surprises me is, you know, if we think back to, for example, Haisel in 1985 or you think about, you know, England reaching the semifinals of the World Cup in 1990, You know, as as new generations come along, they they they don't really don't know these things, and and they don't really talk about them, and, you know, they're more concerned about now.

所以我觉得二十年后，这件事会慢慢淡去。

So I think in twenty years' time, it it will fade.

它会消失在视野之外。

It will disappear over the horizon.

就像我说的，基兰和我可能还会在某个酒吧里继续唠叨这件事，但周围其他人不会真的在意。

And as I say, you know, Kieran and me will be somewhere in a bar still chundering on about this, but nobody else around us will be really concerned about it.

好吧，这个话题就聊到这里吧。

Well, that's a great place to leave it.

我想加入你们。

I'd like to join you.

如果二十年后我们还能聚在一起，我点一杯红酒。

Mine's a red wine if we are there together in twenty years' time.

和你们两位聊天非常愉快。

It's been a pleasure speaking to you both.

基兰和西蒙，非常感谢你们，祝你们在接下来的几周里一切顺利，毫无疑问，你们会非常非常忙。

Kieran and Simon, thank you very much, and I wish you all the best in the coming weeks when undoubtedly, you'll be very, very busy men.

谢谢。

Thank you.

谢谢。

Thank you.

今天的《不止比分》就到这里。

That's all from More Than The Score today.

感谢利物浦大学足球金融学教授、Price of Football播客主持人基兰·马奎尔，以及里昂商学院欧亚体育学教授西蒙·查德威克。

My thanks to Professor of Football Finance at the University of Liverpool and host of Price of Football podcast, Kieran Maguire, and Simon Chadwick, professor of Afro Eurasian sport at Emlyon Business School.

欢迎

Join

下次再

us again next

下周我们还会带来更多体育界的故事，别忘了在您收听播客的平台上关注或订阅《More Than The Score》。

week for more stories from across the sporting world, and follow or subscribe to More Than The Score wherever you get your podcasts.

和往常一样，我们很乐意听到您对节目中故事的看法。

As always, we love hearing your thoughts about the stories on the show.

请发送邮件至MoreThanTheScore@BBC.co.uk，或访问我们的网站了解如何通过WhatsApp联系我们。

Email MoreThanTheScore@BBC.co.uk, or visit our website to find out how to contact us via WhatsApp.

下次再见，我是Delyth Lloyd，就此告别。

Until next time, from me, Delyth Lloyd, it's goodbye for now.

欢迎来到闹鬼的图书馆。

Welcome to the haunted library.

您是来寻找故事的么？

Have you come in search of a tale?

这个播客邀请您浏览书架，找到那些在您离开后仍会久久萦绕的故事。

This podcast invites you to browse the shelves and find stories that will linger long after you've left this place.

从哥特式杰作到廉价的惊悚小说，我是Colin Morgan，每周两次新集，与您相伴。

From gothic masterpieces to pulpy penny dreadfuls, join me, Colin Morgan, with new episodes twice a week.

在您收听播客的任何平台，都能找到《闹鬼图书馆》。

Find the haunted library wherever you get your podcasts.