市场欢迎塔可贸易回归，瑞安航空与马斯克的竞争利好商业

早上好，Brew Daily Show。

Good morning, Brew Daily Show.

我是尼尔·弗莱曼。

I'm Neil Fryman.

我是托比·霍威尔。

And I'm Toby Howell.

今天早餐吃玉米饼，因为特朗普撤回了对格陵兰的关税威胁。

Today, it's tacos for breakfast as Trump backs off Greenland tariff threats.

本，埃隆·马斯克真的要收购瑞安航空吗？

Ben, is Elon Musk really gonna buy Ryanair?

今天是1月22日，星期四。

It's Thursday, January 22.

我们出发吧。

Let's ride.

这个冬天，美国正变成一个僧侣之国。

This winter, America is turning into a nation of monks.

不仅‘一月戒酒’正全面展开，一种更严苛的自律挑战——‘一月不买’——也迅速流行起来。

Not only is Dry January in full swing, but a new even more hardcore test of discipline has surged in popularity, no buy January.

《华尔街日报》指出，许多受社交媒体启发的年轻人立下誓言，在一月的31天里只购买必需品，比如衣服和电子产品等非必需品一概不买。

The Wall Street Journal notes that many younger people inspired by social media have taken a pledge to avoid purchasing anything that's not essential, things like clothes or electronics for the thirty one days of January.

这并非什么新概念，但如今已比以往更为主流。

It's not necessarily new, but it is far more mainstream than before.

根据普华永道的数据，今年十二月，‘一月不买’的谷歌搜索量达到了五年来的最高点。

Google searches for no by January hit a five year high this December according to PwC.

NerdWallet的一项调查显示，超过四分之一的人尝试过‘一月不消费’，其中12%的人在2026年加入了这一潮流。

And a survey by NerdWallet found more than one quarter have tried no spend January with 12% hopping on the trend in 2026.

托比，你觉得对你来说哪个更容易？

Toby, what do you think is easy for you?

‘一月戒酒’还是‘一月不买’？

Dry January or no by January?

你看，我更像那种‘财务崩溃二月’、‘疯狂购物三月’、‘四月飞天’、‘五月巨债’类型的人。

See, I'm more of a financially crippling February kinda guy, a multi buy March, and I flew in April, a massive debt May kind of guy.

实际上，我喜欢任何一月的挑战。

In reality, I do love any January challenge.

所以在年底的最后八九天里，为了支持我的‘无消费月’，我也不买任何东西。

So for the last eight or nine days of the year, I'm not buying anything either in solidarity with my Nomad five Of the month.

这个月。

The month.

这个月。

Of the month.

所以如果我八天不能买东西，我觉得可以。

So I can buy I cannot buy something for eight days, I think.

而现在，

And now a

下面有请我们的赞助商 Indeed。

word from our sponsor, Indeed.

尼尔，我终于开始使用人工智能了。

Neil, I'm finally adopting AI.

对科技突然改变了想法吗？

Sudden change of heart around technology?

没有。

Nope.

AI 是我在我公寓外发现的一只非常凶的小猫的名字。

AI is the name of a very mean kitten I found outside my apartment.

不过，不谈咬人的话题了，我们本周正在达沃斯参加世界经济论坛，Indeed 也在这里，深入探讨 AI 如何改变工作、技能和雇主的采用情况。

Well, in less bitey news, we're here at the World Economic Forum in Davos this week and Indeed is here too diving into things like how AI is transforming jobs, skills, and employer adoption.

Indeed 将分享有关全球劳动力市场的实时洞察，帮助领导者应对未来的劳动力挑战与机遇。

Indeed will be sharing real time insights like that into the global labor market and how leaders can navigate the workforce challenges and opportunities ahead.

Indeed 正通过其全球劳动力市场与劳动力趋势报告，帮助商业领袖和招聘专业人士深入了解这些视角。

Indeed's helping business leaders and hiring professionals dive into these perspectives through Indeed's global labor market and workforce trends report.

这份报告还涵盖了就业机会增长的领域、技能短缺与错配如何影响企业绩效，以及移民模式如何塑造劳动力供给。

This report also includes where job opportunities are growing, where skill shortages and mismatches could impact business performance, and how immigration patterns are shaping workforce capacity.

这些洞察共同帮助领导者为未来做好准备，并基于实时数据做出更明智的劳动力决策。

Together, these insights help leaders prepare for what's next and make better workforce decisions grounded in real time data.

了解更多，请访问 indeed.com/davos。

Learn more at indeed.com/davos.

就是 indeed.com/davos。

That's indeed.com/davos.

有些新鲜的阿尔卑斯山空气，能让人心态更冷静。

There's something about some fresh alpine air that makes cooler heads prevail.

特朗普想收购格陵兰的野心在达沃斯降温了，他在世界经济论坛上宣布，已与北约领导人就未来格陵兰协议达成框架。

Trump's aspirations to acquire Greenland took a chill pill in Davos as he announced that he had reached a framework of a future deal for Greenland with NATO's head at the World Economic Forum.

你听到的那声叹息，是华尔街如释重负——因为塔可又重回菜单了。

That sound you hear is Wall Street breathing a huge sigh of relief because tacos are back on the menu.

塔可贸易，也就是特朗普总是在最后关头退缩，重新复活了。

The taco trade, aka Trump always chickens out, roared back to life.

这一握手协议的宣布，帮助市场从本周早些时候的下跌中回升，此前的下跌源于对欧盟与美国关系紧张以及对七个欧洲国家加征新关税的担忧。

The announcement of the handshake agreement helped markets climb out of the dip they experienced earlier in the week that was fueled by fears of growing EU and US tension and the threat of new tariffs on seven European countries.

回想一下周二。

Think back to Tuesday.

欧洲正准备启用所谓的关税大炮，以反击美国商品和服务进入利润丰厚的欧盟市场，与此同时，美国债券收益率飙升，美元走弱。

Europe was readying its so called tariff bazooka for the retaliatory punch of blocking US goods and services from the lucrative EU market, while US bonds were spiking and the dollar was falling.

但在格陵兰宣布之后，十年期美国国债收益率略有回落。

But post Greenland announcement, the ten year US bond yield chilled out a little.

美元指数上涨，股市也实现了良好反弹。

The dollar index jumped and stocks made a nice recovery.

尼尔稍微把视角拉远一点。

Neil zooming out a little bit.

格陵兰无疑是今年达沃斯论坛的重要议题，但远非唯一的话题。

Greenland was certainly a major theme at Davos this year, but far from the only one.

我们还听到了加拿大总理马克·卡尼谈论基于规则的秩序的终结。

We also had Mark Carney, Canada's PM, talking about the end of rules based order.

贝莱德首席执行官拉里·芬克警告人工智能可能加剧财富不平等，而杰米·戴蒙则反对拟议的信用卡利率10%上限。

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink warning of AI's power to increase wealth inequality, and Jamie Dimon railing against a proposed 10% cap on credit card interest rates.

但让我们再回到这项握手协议。

But let's start back at this handshake deal.

我们到底知道哪些细节？

What details do we even have about it?

是的。

Yeah.

我们掌握的细节非常少。

We have very few details.

这无疑是一个未来将要谈判的协议框架概念。

It's certainly a concept of a framework of a deal that will be negotiated in the future.

不过，有一些传言通过官员们泄露出来，被《纽约时报》报道过。

That said, there are a few rumors that have filtered out of these officials as reported by the New York Times.

这些讨论似乎集中在丹麦可能将格陵兰岛上的某些小区域主权移交给美国，以便美国在那里建立军事基地。

It seems like these discussions will center around Denmark potentially giving The US sovereignty over small pockets of Greenland where The US could build military bases.

这其实是有先例的。

There's a model for this.

英国在塞浦路斯拥有一些被视为英国领土的基地，所以可以留意这一点。

The UK has some bases in Cyprus that are regarded as British territory, so look out for that.

我应该提一下，太空军已经在格陵兰设有基地。

I should mention that Space Force already has a base in Greenland.

此外，还会讨论格陵兰的矿产资源，因为除了该北极地区对国家安全的影响外，特朗普还希望获得格陵兰潜在未开发的稀土矿物资源。

There also is discussions gonna be about Greenland's mineral resources because in addition to the national security implications of this region of the Arctic, Trump also wants access to the rare earth minerals that are potentially untapped in Greenland.

我们对这些资源了解甚少，因为那片土地极其不宜居住。

We just don't know a lot about them because it's very inhospitable territory.

但这些谈判可能包括美国获得对格陵兰矿产资源投资的优先购买权。

But potentially these negotiations could include The US receiving a right of first refusal on investments in Greenland's mineral resources.

特朗普表示，他很快就会公布详细信息。

Trump said he's going to release the details soon.

所以当然，谁知道实际细节会是什么样子。

So of course, know, who knows what what the actual details would be.

但我想把视角放得更广一些，谈谈美欧之间的紧张关系。

But I wanna zoom out to broader US EU tensions here.

而且目前看来，双方的紧张关系依然相当严重。

And it still seems like they are quite high.

这一直是达沃斯的一个主题。

That's been a theme at Davos.

商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克在‘美国之家’发表演讲，而‘美国之家’本周一直是达沃斯的热点。

Howard Lutnick who's the commerce secretary was giving a speech at The USA house which has been the hot spot here in Davos this week.

欧洲央行行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德也在场，霍华德·卢特尼克却直接抨击欧洲的经济政策，对欧洲大加指责。

And Christine Lagarde who's the European Central Bank president was there and Howard Lutnick just starts bashing Europe's economic policies and just going in on Europe.

据称，她当场起身离开了。

And apparently, she just got up and left.

这或许浓缩了本周美国与欧洲之间关系的现状。

And so that's maybe the distillation of how things are going between The United States and Europe this week.

这顿饭可真尴尬。

That's an awkward dinner.

我记不清上一次我中途离席的晚餐是什么时候了，但或许达沃斯本周最受关注的演讲并不是特朗普昨天的讲话。

I can't remember the last dinner I got up and left from, but perhaps the most talked about speech at Davos wasn't even Trump's speech yesterday.

而是加拿大总理马克·卡尼，他总体上成了特朗普之外的焦点话题。

It was PM Canadians PM Mark Carney, who overall kind of was the topic de jure outside of Trump.

根据卡尼的说法，我们当前所经历的整体氛围是一个时代的终结——美国对冲资本的终结。

The overall vibe that we're living through right now according to Carney is an end of an era, the end of American hedge money.

他将当前阶段称为一次断裂，并进一步表示：每一天我们都被提醒，我们生活在一个大国竞争的时代，强者为所欲为，弱者只能承受必须承受的一切。

He called the current phase a rupture and went on to say, every day we're reminded that we live in an era of great power rivalry, that the strong can do what they can and the weak must suffer what they must.

这种大国竞争的表象是中美之间的争端，而卡尼最近也将加拿大置于这一争端的中心。

The illusion to this great power rivalry is a US China feud, and Carney also inserted Canada into the middle of that recently.

加拿大和中国在上星期五达成了初步协议，将大幅削减电动汽车的关税，两国都承诺拆除各自的贸易壁垒。

Canada and China struck an initial deal back in back on Friday that will slash tariffs on electric vehicles as both of the countries promise to tear down their trade barriers.

就在世界与美国脱钩之际，加拿大却正在向中国靠拢。

So Canada is cozying up to China right as the world is rupturing from The US.

因此，在所有其他事件之中，卡尼似乎找到了一种方法，赢得了仅次于特朗普的第二大头条新闻。

So amongst everything else going on here, it looks like Carney has found a way to make probably the second most headlines after Trump.

是的。

Yeah.

他说，中等强国必须联合行动，因为如果我们不在谈判桌上，就会成为盘中餐。

He said the middle powers must act together because if we're not on the table, we're on the menu.

也许这顿饭你根本脱不了身。

Maybe that's not a dinner you get out from.

我们来谈谈杰米·戴蒙。

Let's talk about Jamie Dimon.

杰米·戴蒙是摩根大通的首席执行官，美国最大的银行。

Jamie Dimon is the JP Morgan CEO, biggest bank in The United States.

他做了一次演讲。

He gave a talk.

他在一个小组讨论中发表了一些非常有新闻价值的言论。

He was on a panel and said some very newsy things.

有人特别问他关于特朗普提出的信用卡10%利率上限，而戴蒙几乎完全没有批评特朗普。

He was asked particularly about this 10% interest rate cap on credit cards that Trump has proposed, and Diamond's pretty much refrained from criticizing Trump.

但他确实称这一10%的利率上限是一场经济灾难。

But he did call this 10% cap on interest rates an economic disaster.

他说，这一上限可能会让80%的美国人失去信贷资格。

He said that the cap would potentially strip credit from 80% of Americans.

他说，我的银行会过得很好。

He said, the bank my bank is gonna be do doing just fine.

我们会挺过这场风暴。

Like, we'll weather the storm.

我们有大量的资金。

We have a ton of money.

其他华尔街银行也是如此，但这真的会重创主街上的餐厅、零售商、旅游公司和地方政府。

Same with other Wall Street banks, but it really will hit main street restaurants, retailers, travel companies, and municipalities.

他说，人们会拖欠水费。

He said people will miss their water payments.

他半开玩笑地建议，可以在佛蒙特州和马萨诸塞州试行这个方案，看看效果如何。

He did suggest the idea kind of tongue in cheek that they should try out this experiment in Vermont and Massachusetts and see how is how it goes.

这两个州的参议员分别是佛蒙特州的伯尼·桑德斯和马萨诸塞州的伊丽莎白·沃伦。

Those two states are helmed at the senator position by you have Bernie Sanders in Vermont and Elizabeth Warren in Massachusetts.

正是这两位参议员大力推动了这一想法。

Those are the two senators that have really floated this idea.

这表明进步派和特朗普总统有着相似的民粹主义经济政策。

It shows that the the progressive wing and president Trump have similar populist economic policies.

最后，回到美国，另一个可能提振市场信心的因素是，最高法院周三似乎很可能阻止特朗普立即解雇由民主党任命的美联储理事丽莎·库克。

And then finally returning to America for second, another thing that may be boosting some market confidence is the fact that the supreme court on Wednesday appeared likely to block Trump's from immediately firing the democrat appointed Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve Board.

这一直是一个在幕后酝酿的问题，因为人们普遍担心，这表明特朗普正在加强对指导经济的中央银行的影响力。

That's been something that's been percolating in the background here because, basically, people are afraid that this shows Trump is exerting a greater influence over the central bank that guides the economy.

最高法院大法官们对此表现出相当一致的怀疑态度，这给市场在今早带来了另一波小幅提振，因为看起来中央银行的独立性正在最高法院得到维护。

And the fact that the supreme court justices were pretty unanimously skeptical of this gave markets another little boost coming into this morning because it does look like central bank integrity is being upheld at the highest court.

是的。

Yeah.

看来丽莎·库克暂时会保住她的职位。

It looks like Lisa Cook will keep her job for now.

接下来我们谈谈更平常的事情。

Moving on to more prosaic matters.

我们这儿有个老套的首席执行官争执。

We've got a good old CEO beef.

涉事的企业高管是埃隆·马斯克和爱尔兰人迈克尔·奥利里，后者是欧洲最大廉价航空公司瑞安航空的负责人。

The corporate bosses in question, Elon Musk and Michael O'Leary, the Irishman who leads Ryanair, Europe's largest budget airline.

上周，奥利里表示，他的航空公司不会在机队中安装埃隆的星链WiFi，因为需要安装的天线会增加阻力，每年使瑞安航空的燃油成本额外增加2.5亿美元。

These two started going at it last week when O'Leary said that his airline would not install Elon's Starlink WiFi on its fleet of planes because the antenna you need to beam WiFi to passengers would increase drag and cost Ryanair an extra $250,000,000 in fuel costs a year.

埃隆无法对此置之不理，称奥利里信息有误。

Elon could not let this go saying O'Leary was misinformed.

随后，奥利里彻底反击，称马斯克对飞行和空气阻力一无所知，并称他的前平台是个粪坑。

Then O'Leary went all in saying that Musk knows nothing about flight or drag and called his ex platform a cesspit.

争议就此全面爆发。

The floodgates were open.

马斯克称奥利里是个彻头彻尾的傻瓜，并敦促将其解雇。

Musk called O'Leary an utter idiot and urged for his firing.

在两人互相辱骂了几轮之后，马斯克在推特上询问他的粉丝，他是否应该收购瑞安航空以便解雇奥利里。

After a few more barbs of each of these guys calling each other idiots, Musk pulled his Twitter followers whether he should buy Ryanair so that he could sack O'Leary.

目前尚不清楚是否会提出收购要约。

TBD on whether a takeover offer will come.

托比，我们正在谈论当今最直言不讳、最张扬的两位首席执行官——埃隆和奥利里，他们曾提出过在飞机上出售站票的主意。

Toby, we're talking about two of the most outspoken brash CEOs in the game right now, Elon and O'Leary, who once floated the idea of selling standing seats on his planes.

他们在社交媒体上的争执可能看起来有点荒谬，但作为一贯的营销高手，奥利里成功地将这场免费宣传转化为商业财富。

Their social media spat may seem a little silly, but ever the marketer, O'Leary has managed to turn this free publicity into business gold.

是的。

Yeah.

这里需要注意的一点是，瑞安航空的策略本质上就是搞恶搞。

One thing here to note is that Ryanair's strategy kinda revolves around trolling it.

他们是一家极度廉价的欧洲航空公司。

They are an extremely discount European air.

他们单程机票只卖20美元。

They sell tickets for $20 one way.

他们的航班平均时长大约一小时左右。

Their flights are about an hour on average sometimes.

因此，他们的客户群体早就明白这种营销套路，根本不在乎服务体验，而且他们在社交媒体上也一直保持着这种调侃幽默的风格。

So the customer base kind of understands this gimmick that they don't really care about their customers, and they have this very tongue in cheek nature on social media.

我不确定埃隆是否真的知道这一点。

I'm not sure if Elon actually knows that.

有些人说，没有。

Some people are saying, no.

他完全在配合这个玩笑。

He's totally in on the joke.

另一些人则绝对不这么认为。

Other people are not saying absolutely not.

他把这件事看得非常认真。

He's taking this very seriously.

无论如何，这对业务来说都是好事。

Either way, it has been good for business.

这一直是奥利里的核心策略。

That's been the underlying thing here for O'Leary.

他在周三的新闻发布会上表示，这对我们的预订非常有利。

He said at a press conference on Wednesday that it is very good for our bookings.

最近几天，他们推出了大规模的‘傻瓜座位’促销活动，他说我们非常喜欢这种能推动瑞安航空预订量的公关争端。

They rolled out this big idiot seat sale in recent days, and he says we love these PR spats that drive bookings on Ryanair.

所以，这些在X平台上来回飞溅的言辞，最终提升了整体业绩。

So the bottom line is getting a boost from these barbs flying back and forth on X.

是的。

Yeah.

他们推出了大规模的‘傻瓜座位’促销活动。

They launched this big idiot seat sale.

他们正在以大约每张20美元的价格出售十万张座位。

They are they're offering a 100,000 seats at about $20 a pop.

在同一场新闻发布会上，他还表示，在他与马斯克的社交媒体争端之后，预订量上升了2%到3%。

And in the same press conference, he said that bookings have risen 2% to 3% in the aftermath of the social media spat between he and Elon Musk.

所以他说，奥利里表示，我非常乐意继续这场争议。

So he said O'Leary said, I'm very happy to continue the controversy.

只要能提升瑞安航空的销量，你们尽管全天候、天天骂我吧。

If it helps to boost Ryanair sales, you can insult me all day, any day.

不过，情况是这样的。

Here's the deal though.

这对特斯拉股东来说又是个大事，因为他们之前就经历过类似的情况，当时埃隆据说只是在推特上开玩笑说要收购某家公司。

It's a big deal for Tesla shareholders again because they've been through this rodeo before where Elon allegedly is joking about buying something on Twitter.

那次的情况，真的是他开玩笑说要收购推特本身。

In that case, it was literally about joking that he was going to buy Twitter itself.

但后来他真的付诸行动了。

And then he actually did follow through on it.

所以我觉得人们现在有点创伤后应激反应的闪回。

So I think people are getting, like, PTSD flashbacks.

特斯拉股东们心想：别再来了，别再搞一次他开玩笑说要收购公司、然后可能真去做的支线剧情了。

Tesla shareholders are going, not again, not another side quest of him joking about buying a company and then maybe actually following through on it.

不过，收购一家欧洲航空公司是有一定规则的。

There are some rules about who can actually buy a European airline, though.

它们必须由欧盟国家或其他欧洲国家的实体控股多数股份。

They have to airlines based in the EU EU must be majority owned by someone from EU countries or some other European countries.

所以，埃隆要想认真对待他那些开玩笑的投票，可能会遇到一些监管障碍。

So there might be some regulatory hurdles to Elon actually following through on his joking polls.

但如果我是特斯拉股东，我会说：天啊。

But if I'm a Tesla shareholder, I'm going, gosh.

又来了，真烦人。

Dang it again.

你能不能专心点？

Can you just focus in?

稍微专注一下吧。

Lock in for a little bit.

别再开玩笑说要收购其他航空公司了。

Don't joke about buying any other airlines.

尽管亚马逊开创了电子商务的概念，但现在却想倒退到实体零售的时代，而它最新尝试的盈利门店模式是迄今为止规模最大的一次。

Moving on, despite pioneering the very concept of ecommerce, Amazon wants to turn back the clock to the days of brick and mortar retail, and its latest bet to find a winning store format is its biggest one yet.

‘万物商店’计划在伊利诺伊州奥兰帕克开设一家大型百货商店，此前它已成功说服该市信托委员会本周通过了这一计划。

The Everything store is bringing a massive big box store to Orland Park, Illinois after convincing the city's board of trustees in Evoque this past week.

但仅仅称其为大型卖场似乎太过轻描淡写了。

But the just calling this a big box store feels like a gross understatement.

这个地方将会极其庞大。

This place is going to be gargantuan.

该场地占地超过35英亩。

The site sprawls over 35 acres.

商店本身面积将达到23万平方英尺。

The store itself will be 230,000 square feet.

这远远超过了同类竞争者，平均沃尔玛门店面积仅为17.3万平方英尺。

That dwarfs competitors in the space with the average Walmart store clocking in at just a 173,000 square feet.

它大到足以容纳近两个标准的好市多门店。

It is big enough to fit nearly two average Costco sized stores inside.

就像你前伴侣告诉你的那样，尺寸并不重要。

Now much like what your ex told you, size doesn't matter.

重要的是里面装了什么。

It's what's on the inside that counts.

而在这些巨大的墙壁内，亚马逊正在打造一个弗兰肯斯坦式的怪物。

And then inside those giant walls, Amazon is creating a Frankenstein's monster.

这个空间将一半用于零售，一半用于仓储配送。

The space will be 50% retail and 50% fulfillment.

前半部分将摆放你的杂货、日用品，比如纸尿裤和纸巾，甚至还有一些现场制作的即食食品。

The front half will contain your groceries, general merch, like diapers and paper towels, and even some prepared food made on-site.

后半部分将是亚马逊最擅长的领域——处理线上和店内订单的配送中心。

The back half will be what Amazon does best, fulfillment for online and in store orders.

亚马逊希望，通过将零售与仓储配送融合，并在过道上设置用于线上下单的店内自助终端，能够将自身的数字优势与传统购物体验结合，这是其他品牌无法做到的。

It hopes that by smooshing together retail and fulfillment and dotting the aisle with in store kiosk for online ordering, it will be able to combine its digital prowess and normal shopping in a way that other brands can't pull off.

尼尔，这感觉就像一家非常‘亚马逊风’的商店。

Neil, this feels like a very Amazon y store.

嗯，亚马逊在实体零售方面几乎尝试了所有可能的方式。

Well, Amazon has just tried just about everything when it comes to brick and mortar retail.

他们已经开设了实体书店。

They've launched physical bookstores.

他们还推出了购物中心的自助服务亭。

They've launched shopping mall kiosks.

他们做过服装店。

They've done apparel stores.

他们做过便利店。

They've done convenience stores.

他们甚至拥有自己的亚马逊超市连锁。

They even had their own Amazon supermarket chain.

这些都没成功。

None of it has worked.

亚马逊Go便利店，现在还剩下一些。

Amazon Go convenience stores, there's still a few of them left.

全美共有14家门店，但还不到2023年数量的一半。

There's 14 locations nationwide but that's less than half of the amount that they had in 2023.

所以这又是一个例子，说明：好吧，我们已经试过一切了。

So this is just another example saying, okay, we've tried everything.

我们为什么不干脆尝试一下迄今为止最大的概念呢？也许这才是最好的机会，因为你看，我们的网站本来就是一个大众市场零售商。

Why don't we just why don't we just do the biggest concept yet and maybe that would be the best opportunity because look we are a mass market retailer on our website.

我们什么都能卖。

We sell everything.

这些其他的店铺可能更偏向某个细分市场，或者针对特定的客户群体。

These other stores have been maybe a little more niche or catered to a particular clientele.

我们为什么不干脆建一个属于自己的沃尔玛，看看会发生什么？

Why don't we just basically build our own Walmart and see what happens?

我非常认同他们正在尝试的这种数字与物理世界的融合，因为店内的自助终端让你在逛店时就能访问亚马逊的电商平台。

I'm very about this digital and physical integration that they're trying to do here because these in store kiosks allow you to basically access Amazon's ecommerce platform while you're walking around.

所以，也许你眼前看到一件漂亮的毛衣，但实体店展示的颜色并不是你想要的。

So maybe you see this lovely sweater in front of you, but you don't really the color that's on display in the physical store.

就是我身上穿的这件吗？

The one I'm wearing right now?

这件穿在你身上真好看，尼尔。

It looks great on you, Neil.

这真的突出了你眼睛的颜色。

It really brings out the color of your eyes.

但如果你想要另一件毛衣，你可以去自助终端机下单，然后店员从后仓拿过来当场给你配送。

But if you wanted a different sweater, you can go to the kiosk, you order a different one, and then someone from the back brings it out and fulfills it right then.

另外，也许你正在看狗粮袋子。

Also, maybe you're looking at dog food bags.

我不真想把这么重的一袋拖到车上。

I don't really wanna lug this big bag to my card.

你可以让店员从商店后半部分直接送到车边。

You can have someone do curbside fulfillment from the back half of the store again.

所以他们试图在每一个层面提升便利性，这非常有趣——既包括大家喜爱的配送平台的便利性，也包括现在这种便利性也能在实体零售店实现。

So it's very fascinating how they are trying to maximize convenience at every level, both the convenience of the delivery platform that everyone loves and the fact that they can have that convenience happen in a physical retail location now.

这就是我称它为亚马逊式产品的原因，因为我不知道还有没有其他商店像他们这样将这些元素结合在一起。

That's why I called it an Amazon y product because I don't know if any other stores are kind of combining them in the same way that they are.

我的问题是，为什么亚马逊一直在尝试这样做？

My question is why is Amazon keep trying this?

他们失败了那么多次。

They failed so many times.

他们为什么如此在意进入实体零售业？

Why do they care so much about getting into physical retail?

尽管我们很多人都一直在线购物，但实体店的购买额仍占美国零售总额的80%以上。

And even though a lot of us all shop online all the time, in store purchases account for still more than 80% of retail sales in The United States.

因此，作为一家纯电商企业，亚马逊正眼睁睁看着这笔巨额收入流失。

So that's so much money being left on the table for Amazon as just being an e commerce player.

其次，亚马逊的顾客经常光顾其他大型零售商。

And then secondly, Amazon's customers regularly shop at competing big box retailers.

所以，如果他们能把这些顾客从沃尔玛、好市多、塔吉特吸引到亚马逊门店，那也将是一个巨大的机会。

So if they can convert those customers from Walmart, Costco, Target into shop going to an Amazon store, then that's a huge opportunity as well.

消费者智能研究合作伙伴发现，83%的亚马逊顾客曾光顾过沃尔玛。

Consumer intelligence research partners found that 83% of Amazon customers have shopped at Walmart.

而且基本上所有亚马逊顾客都在别处购买杂货。

And then basically all of Amazon customers buy groceries elsewhere.

所以会有一个巨大的食品杂货板块。

So there's gonna be a huge grocery component.

还会有一个巨大的日用百货板块，他们希望——你知道的，我不太确定，但最终一切都取决于执行——他们想让那些住在郊区芝加哥、家附近就有沃尔玛、Trader Joe's和其他大型百货店的顾客来光顾亚马逊商店。

There's gonna be a huge general merchandise component, and they're hoping, you know, somehow, I'm not exactly sure, it's all gonna come down to execution, is that they're trying to get there's Walmart right down the road here in Suburban Chicago, and there's a Trader Joe's, there's all these other big box stores.

他们必须想办法让这些顾客因为某种原因去亚马逊购物。

They're gonna have to have they're gonna have to try to get those customers to go to Amazon for some reason.

我们会看到商店的设计，看看他们能做出哪些吸引人的东西。

And they're gonna like we'll see the design of the store and see sort of what compelling things that they can do.

他们显然会利用亚马逊Prime的数据，为Prime会员提供各种优惠。

They're obviously gonna leverage data from Amazon Prime and try to do all these deals for for prime numbers.

但我真的认为，最终一切都取决于执行。

But I really think it's gonna come all down to execution.

也许我们将来可以去奥兰德公园实地考察一下。

Field trip to Orland Park in our future perhaps.

好的。

Alright.

我们稍作短暂休息，马上回来带来尼尔的数据。

We're gonna take a quick break and come back with Neil's numbers right after this.

现在是我们的晨间饮品每日达沃斯更新，由Lightspeed带来。

Time for our morning brew daily Davos update with Lightspeed.

我们有幸邀请到Lightspeed的联合创始人兼合伙人拉维·马特拉。

We are joined by Lightspeed co founder and partner Ravi Matra.

拉维，我们已经采访过几位Lightspeed投资组合中的创始人。

Ravi, we've spoken to a number of founders in the Lightspeed portfolio.

当你在寻找初创企业进行投资时，最快区分有效信息与干扰信息的方法是什么？

When you're looking at a startup to invest in, what's the fastest way you separate signal from noise?

我们寻找那些关注我们所说的超级周期或趋势线，而非当前技术状态的创始人。

We look for founders who think about what we call the super cycle or the trend line and not the state of the technology today.

人工智能正在迅速发展和进步，这与计算成本下降的指数级趋势有关。

AI intelligence is evolving and improving so rapidly, and that relates to some of the underlying exponential trends in the drop of cost of compute.

在过去一年里，推理成本下降了大约100倍。

Inference cost has gone down by something like 100x in the last year.

人工智能计算的性能，今年以三分之一的成本就能实现与去年相同的智能水平。

The performance of AI computing, the ability at one third of the cost this year versus last year to produce the same level of intelligence.

这些因素意味着创始人必须专注于智能技术的发展方向，而不是在当前背景下技术所处的状态。

These things really mean that founders have to be focused on where the intelligence technology is going, and not where it is today in the context of their idea.

如果这一点无法以我们认为稳健的方式实现，我们就不会继续推进。

And if that doesn't compile in a way that we think is robust, we will not proceed.

谢谢你，拉维。

Thank you, Ravi.

超级周期。

Supercycle.

我要借用一下这个说法。

I'm gonna steal that.

《晨间饮品每日播报》本周全天从达沃斯现场直播，与Lightspeed合作推出。

Morning Brew Daily is live from Davos all week in partnership with Lightspeed.

别忘了前往我们的YouTube频道，观看本周与Lightspeed创始人进行的特别访谈。

And be sure to head to our YouTube channel for special interviews with Lightspeed founders all week.

我们刚刚发布了一期与K2空间的联合创始人兼首席执行官库兰·昆贾尔的访谈，他正致力于建造历史上最大的太空卫星。

We just posted one with the co founder and CEO of K two Space, Quran Kunjar, who is trying to build the biggest space satellites in history.

真是疯狂。

Pretty crazy.

请持续关注，我们在世界经济论坛期间还会发布更多内容。

Keep an eye out as we'll be posting more throughout the World Economic Forum.

尼尔，什么时候开始与财务专业人士合作比较合适？

Neil, when's a good time to start working with a financial professional?

现在。

Now.

关于什么？

What about?

不是，托比。

No, Toby.

现在。

Now.

西北互助保险公司可以为您匹配一位财务专业人士，他们会根据您的现状，与您共同制定符合您个人重要目标的财务计划。

Northwestern Mutual can match you with a financial professional who will meet you where you are and work with you to build a financial plan based on what's important to you.

他们会帮您发现盲点，发掘新的机会，以帮助您增长和保护财富。

They'll uncover blind spots and find new opportunities to help grow and protect your wealth.

他们会根据我的生活以及短期和长期目标量身定制吗？

Will they tailor it to my life and near and long term goals?

是的。

Yes.

选择正确的财务伙伴，为2026年打下坚实的财务基础。

Give yourself the right financial start to 2026 with the right financial partner.

访问 nm.com，找到更明智的理财方式。

Find a better way to money at nm.com.

那就是 nm.com。

That's nm.com.

西北互助人寿保险公司，位于威斯康星州密尔沃基，以及西北互助财富管理公司。

The Northwestern Mutual Life Insurance Company, Milwaukee, Wisconsin, and Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Company.

欢迎来到尼尔的数字，这个环节我会分享本周新闻中的三个数据，帮你在这个冬季风暴来临前感到温暖安心。

Welcome to Neil's Numbers, the segment where I share three stats from the week's news that will keep you warm and cozy ahead of this winter storm.

首先，有一个行业正经历令人震惊的复兴。

For my first number, there's an industry experiencing a shocking revival.

相信我，你绝对猜不到它是什么。

And trust me, there's no way you're gonna guess what it is.

烟囱清洁工。

Chimney sweeps.

我很高兴迪克·范·戴克还活着，亲眼见证了这一切。

I'm so glad Dick Van Dyke is still alive to see this.

根据《纽约时报》报道，英国国家烟囱清洁工协会的会员人数已从五年前的约500人增长到如今的约750人。

According to the New York Times, England's National Association of Chimney Sweeps has grown its membership to about 750 today from about five hundred and ninety five years ago.

每天都有多人报名参加培训课程，其中还包括40名女性会员。

Multiple people are booking training courses per day and there's 40 women members as well.

烟囱清洁工需求上升的原因是，越来越多的人在家中使用开放式壁炉。

The reason why chimney sweeps are in demand is that people are having more open fires in their home.

英国政府建议每年请专业人员清理一次烟囱，以减少空气污染。

And the British government recommends chimneys be professionally swept once a year to limit air pollution.

人们越来越多地使用明火的原因多种多样。

The reason why people are having more open fires are varied.

报道称，能源价格上涨、木柴燃烧炉的使用增加，以及对俄罗斯等敌对国家切断电网的担忧，都推动了它们的流行。

The time says that higher energy prices, the increasing use of word wood burning stoves, and concerns around a hostile state like Russia taking out the electric grid have all juiced their popularity.

如果你从事烟囱清洁行业，生意正蒸蒸日上。

And business is booming if you're in the chimney sweep business.

对于自19世纪以来一直从事烟囱清洁的‘菲金斯父子’公司来说，冬季每天大约接到70到80个电话。

For h firkins and sons, which has been sweeping chimneys since the nineteenth century, they get about 70 to 80 calls a day in the winter months.

托比，我不太确定该怎么说。

Toby, I'm not sure how to say this.

超凡脱俗？

Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious?

确实如此，烟囱清洁工。

Chim chim tree indeed.

但这已经不是过去的烟囱清扫了。

This is not the chimney sweeping of old though.

你可能想象的是一个满身煤灰的人爬上去，或者像过去那些做这项工作的年轻孤儿。

You're probably imagining someone very soot covered, climbing up, or maybe even like, the young orphan boys that used to do this back in the day.

在现代，烟囱清扫已经不是这样了。

That is not what chimney sweeping looks like in the modern era.

他们使用工具。

They use tools.

比如，他们有闭路电视摄像头。

Like, they have CCTV cameras.

他们还有可以帮助清扫烟囱的无人机。

They have drones that can help with the chimney sweeping.

如今，他们使用工业级吸尘器。

They have industrial vacuum cleaners these days.

这可不是只拿个鸡毛掸子随便掸一掸，然后听天由命了。

Like, it's not just using a duster and just hoping for the best.

所以这也是为什么这个行业可能正在寻求复兴的原因之一，因为现在比过去容易多了。

So that is part of the reason too why maybe this industry is seeking revivals because it's a lot easier than it was back in the day.

不过，我还是想当一名烟囱清洁工，因为在那里总会有一些惊人的发现，毕竟烟囱并不是人们经常清理或查看的地方。

I would want to be a chimney sweep, though, for the crazy discoveries that happened because chimneys are not a place that you are often cleaning or looking into.

因此，有时这些清洁工会报告发现一些非常有趣的物品，比如恋人之间的信件，那些命运多舛的情侣的遗物。

And so sometimes these sweeps, report finding some very juicy stuffs, love letters between people, star crossed lovers.

在某些情况下，他们还发现了人类遗骸。

They found human remains in some cases.

手枪、步枪都被藏在上面。

Revolvers, guns are stashed up there.

所以仅从好奇心的角度来看，我就想探个究竟，看看人们把什么东西藏在了烟囱里。

So just from that perspective, a curiosity perspective, I would want to get nosy and see what people are stashing in their chimneys.

好的。

Alright.

接下来，我要向你们介绍一项基础设施，它在金门大桥旁拯救了无数生命。

For my next number, I'll introduce you to a piece of infrastructure that saved countless lives netting alongside the Golden Gate Bridge.

据《纽约时报》报道，数十年来，每年平均有三十人从旧金山金门大桥跳下自杀。

As the New York Times reported, for decades, there had been an average of thirty suicides each year from people jumping off the Golden Gate Bridge in San Francisco.

到了2025年，这一数字降为零。

In the 2025, there were zero.

这几乎肯定是这座建成近百年的大桥有史以来的最低纪录。

Almost certainly a record low for a bridge that was constructed nearly one hundred years ago.

这一显著下降要归功于一项措施：在金门大桥两侧的人行道下方约六米处，安装了长达数英里的网状结构，实际上是不锈钢缆绳。

For this stunning decrease, there's only one thing to thank, a miles long series of nets or really stainless steel cables that sit 20 feet below public walkways on both sides of the Golden Gate.

这一项目可追溯到2006年，当时一些跳桥者家属开始探讨如何减少自杀事件。

The project traces back to 2006 when family members of people who jumped from the bridge began brainstorming methods about ways to limit suicides.

他们最终采纳了源自瑞士伯尔尼的网状防护方案。

They eventually landed on the net concept which was borrowed from Bern, Switzerland.

但考虑到这是旧金山，这些防护网并非一天或五年内就能建成。

This being San Francisco, the netting was not built in a day or even five years.

据《纽约时报》报道，工程从2018年到2025年历时七年，这意味着安装防护网所花的时间比建造大桥本身（约四年）还要长。

According to the times, construction took seven years from 2018 to 2025, meaning that it took longer to rig up the netting than the bridge itself which was built in about four years.

成本从最初估计的7600万美元飙升至2.24亿美元。

Cost balloon two from an initial estimate of $76,000,000 to 224,000,000.

不过，如今网状结构终于建成，其效果似乎如预期般显著。

Now that it's finally up though, the netting appears to be working as intended.

是的。

Yeah.

安装网状结构后，还有一种看不见的效果：有些人来到桥上，看到这些网，就会改变主意。

There's this also invisible effect that happens when you install netting too which is people who maybe arrive at the bridge, see their nets, and then change their mind.

而这种在关键时刻的念头转变，对人们未来的预期寿命有着巨大的积极影响。

And that changing of the mind in the moment does massive amounts for people's expectancy going life expectancy going forward.

1978年，一位加州大学伯克利分校的教授进行了一项研究，追踪了515名原本打算跳桥自杀、但最终没有跳或被劝阻的人，其中94人在多年后仍健在，或死于自然原因。

There's this 1978 study from a UC Berkeley professor that followed 515 people who were going to the bridge to intend to jump, decided not to or were persuaded not to, and ninety four were still alive or died of natural causes many years later.

因此，如果你能在最初冲动的那一刻加以阻止，就能显著延长寿命。

So if you can do something to deter that initial moment, it does lead to a much longer lifespan.

所以，这绝对是一项在拯救生命、让人们长期存活方面极为成功的基础设施项目。

So absolutely a successful infrastructure project when it comes to saving lives and keeping people alive for many years after.

最后，我要问你们一个问题。

For my final number, I'm gonna ask you a question.

对你来说，什么感觉更遥远？

What feels further back in time to you?

三十年前还是1996年？

Thirty years ago or 1996?

根据最新研究，大多数人会回答三十年前，这被称为‘时间长度效应’，这对营销人员乃至政策制定者都有重大影响。

The answer for most of you according to new research is thirty years ago known as the year length effect and there are big implications for marketers and even policy makers.

加拿大不列颠哥伦比亚大学索德斯商学院的一项新研究试图确定，当时间以长度或日历年表示时，人们是否会以不同方式感知它。

A new study from the UBC Souders School of Business sought to determine whether people perceive time differently when expressed as a length or as a calendar year.

答案是：是的，非常明显。

And the answer is yes, very much.

在重视年龄的领域，当时间以长度描述时，人们的态度更为积极。

Where age is valued, people have more favorable attitudes when time is described by length.

以威士忌为例，越陈越好。

Take whiskey for example, the older the better.

在研究人员观察的威士忌拍卖中，以时间长度描述的酒瓶——比如十年陈酿——售价高出约9%。

In whiskey auctions observed by the researchers, bottles described by length of time, a ten year old whiskey sold for about 9% higher prices.

另一方面，如果你希望淡化某物的陈旧感，比如一件衣服，那么最好用具体年份来描述它。

On the other hand, if you're trying to minimize how old something feels, say for an item of clothing, then you're better off describing it from x year.

在Craigslist上，卖家如果用年份而非年龄来描述商品，收入高出约17%。

Sellers on Craigslist earned about 17% more when they describe their items in terms of a year rather than how old it was.

该研究指出，营销人员可以利用这一关于我们大脑易被操控的洞察，提升自己的工作效果。

The study says that marketers could use this insight into our easily manipulated brains to become better at their jobs.

同时，政府和政策制定者也可以利用这些洞察，更好地推动退休储蓄或气候变化后果等领域的积极结果。

At the same time, governments and policymakers could use these insights to also drive better outcomes for things like saving for retirement or the consequences of climate change.

托比，这是我自2023年以来听过最有趣的事情之一。

Toby, this is one of the most interesting things I've heard since, like, 2023.

我的意思是，三年前。

I mean, three years ago.

是的。

Yeah.

我们是什么时候开始这个播客的？

When did we start this podcast?

是三年前还是2023年？

Was it three years ago or 2023?

我想弄清楚哪种说法更能让我们显得比实际更年长、更有智慧。

I'm trying to figure out which applies better to make us seem older and wiser than we are.

这之所以有效，是因为人类对数字的感知方式与你预期的不一样。

The reason why this works is because humans perceive numbers differently than you would expect.

我们实际上是以对数方式而非线性方式来感知数字的。

We actually perceive numbers logarithmically, not linearly.

因此，较大的数字之间的差距感觉比小数字之间的差距更大。

So the jump between higher numbers feels bigger than the jump between smaller numbers.

比如，11和12之间的差异感觉比2和3之间的差异更大。

So instance, the difference between eleven and twelve feels bigger than the difference between two and three.

这种奇特的时间扭曲效应，正是营销人员应该利用这个理念的原因。

So that weird kind of time warping effect that occurs is why marketers should plug into this idea.

所以，再重申一遍一般规则：当年龄能增加价值时，你应该使用时长框架，比如多少岁。

So just to reiterate what the general rule is, when age adds value, you'd use length framing, like years old.

当年龄会降低价值时，比如在网上卖衣服，就用年份框架，这样你或许能时不时多赚一点钱。

When age reduces value when you're selling clothes online, use the year framing, and you might be able to make a few extra bucks here and there.

比如，如果我想显得更老一点，我会说我34岁。

Like, if I wanna seem older, I would say I'm 34 years old.

如果我想显得年轻一点，我会说我出生于1991年。

If I wanted to seem younger, would say I was born in 1991.

你现在的样子就完美极了，尼尔。

You seem perfect just the way you are, Neil.

现在，让我们冲刺到最后，看一些最终的标题。

Now let's sprint to the finish with some final headlines.

如果你一直想找机会在日常生活中更多地使用‘cattywampus’这个词，那我可有个绝佳的游戏推荐给你。

If you've been itching for a way to work cattywampus into your daily life more frequently, boy, do I have the game for you.

昨天，《纽约时报》推出了他们的最新游戏——Cross Play。

Yesterday marks the debut of the New York Times' newest game, cross play.