Meta 同意达成创纪录的180亿美元和解协议，且纽约市科技从业者数量超过旧金山

早上好，欢迎收听Brew Daily Show。

Good morning, Brew Daily Show.

我是尼尔·弗拉特曼。

I'm Neil Frattman.

我是托比·豪厄尔。

And I'm Toby Howell.

今天，Meta以180亿美元达成和解，这是社交媒体领域的一个里程碑时刻。

Today, Meta settles for $18,000,000,000 in a landmark moment for social media.

接下来，比尔·盖茨就人工智能发出了迄今为止最响亮的警告之一。

Then Bill Gates is sounding one of the loudest alarms yet when it comes to AI.

今天是8月27日，星期四。

It's Thursday, August 27.

我们开始吧。

Let's ride.

如果你几周前错过了欧洲的日食，今晚将迎来更精彩的天象——月食。

If you missed the solar eclipse in Europe a couple of weeks ago, tonight brings the best thing, a lunar eclipse.

东部时间晚上9点23分开始，地球将运行到太阳和月亮之间，在月球表面投下阴影，在最高峰时覆盖月球的96.2%。

Beginning at 09:23PM eastern, the earth will travel between the sun and the moon casting a shadow on the moon's surface, covering 96.2% of it at the peak.

这应该会非常壮观，因为地球在月球上的阴影会让它看起来呈红橙色，这就是所谓的“血月”。

Should be a pretty cool sight because the Earth's shadow on the moon will make it appear reddish orange in what's been dubbed a blood moon.

最棒的是，如果天空晴朗，美国本土就能看到。

Best part is, it'll be visible from the Continental US if the skies cooperate.

不过别错过下午的咖啡，因为月食大约在10点30分开始升温，到凌晨12点12分达到顶峰。

Don't skip your afternoon coffee though because the eclipse will heat up around 10:30 and peak at 12:12AM.

尼尔，我一直这么说。

Neil, I've been saying this.

今年的月食比往年任何时候都多。

There are more eclipses this year than ever before.

好像每个星期都有某个天体从另一个天体前面经过。

It seems like every single week there's some celestial body passing in front of another one.

是我疯了，还是今年真的更多？

Am I crazy or are there more this

你没疯。

You're not crazy.

其实今年不一定更多，但最近几周出现两次是因为日食和月食总是成对出现。

There are it's not necessarily more this year, but the reason that there is two in the past couple of weeks is because solar and lunar eclipses do come in pairs.

通常会有一次食，然后两周后，当月亮从新月变成满月时，我们又会看到另一次食。

There's usually one eclipse, and then two weeks later when the sun or when the moon goes from a new moon to a full moon, we get another eclipse.

这纯粹是巧合的数学，因为这些天体在天空中的大小和距离刚好如此。

And there's just fortuitous math the way these celestial bodies appear in the sky because of size and distance.

这真是挺神奇的。

It's pretty crazy the way this works out.

太阳离地球的距离是月亮离地球的400倍，而太阳的大小也是月亮的400倍。

The sun is 400 times farther away from Earth than the moon is, and the sun is also 400 times bigger than the moon.

所以它们刚好抵消了，你算算小学二年级的数学，我们看这些天体在夜空中看起来一样大。

So it cancels out, you know, you do your second grade math there, and we look they look these orbs look the same size in the night sky.

当然，你早就知道为什么会有更多食的答案了。

Of course, you knew the actual answer to why there's been more.

那你知道它为什么会变红吗？

Do you know why it turns red though?

不知道。

No.

其实也没什么特别的，就是阳光本身是由各种颜色的光谱组成的，而大气层会吸收掉大部分黄色和蓝色的光。

It it's not that exciting, but sunlight's obviously made up of a spectrum of colors, and our atmosphere actually absorbs most of the yellow and blue parts of the spectrum.

只有红色的光能穿透过来，所以月亮看起来就带上了血红色。

The only one that skirts by is the red part, which is why it gives the moon a blood red hue.

就是这样。

There you go.

接下来是赞助商美国运通的广告时间。

And now a word from our sponsor, American Express.

尼尔，我准备好了。

Neil, I am all go.

你说什么？

You're what?

我忙得不可开交。

I am up the wall.

我连轴转。

I am nonstop.

我特别忙，所以我很感激美国运通商务白金卡，因为它背后有一个会员体系，专门在机会出现时支持企业发展。

I am busy, which is why I appreciate the American Express business Platinum Card because it's backed by a membership that's designed to support businesses wherever opportunity shows up.

凭借屡获殊荣的客户服务、针对关键商业解决方案的账单抵扣，以及优质的旅行福利，商务白金卡在你最需要的时候提供支持。

With award winning customer service, statement credits for key business solutions, and premium travel benefits, the Business Platinum Card gives you support that's there when you need it most.

所以当你专注于经营业务时，商务白金卡和美国运通会员体系会一路支持你。

So while you're focusing on running your business, the Business Platinum Card and American Express membership are built to back you every step of the way.

访问 go.amx/morningbrew 了解更多，看看你的欢迎礼遇，最高可达30万会员奖励积分。

Learn more at go.amx/morningbrew and find out your welcome offer, which could be as high as 300,000 membership rewards points.

网址是 go.amx/morningbrew，优惠和条款适用。

That's go.amx/morningbrew offers and benefit terms apply.

面对可能高达2000亿美元的诉讼赔偿，Meta决定还是和解为好。

Facing potentially $200,000,000,000 in damages from a sprawling lawsuit, Meta decided it was in a settling mood.

审判开始才刚过一周，这家社交媒体巨头就和48个州达成了里程碑式的和解，同意在十年内支付高达180亿美元的罚款，并对Facebook和Instagram做出重大调整，让它们对孩子们来说更安全。

Just over a week into the trial, the social media giant reached a landmark settlement with 48 states agreeing to pay up to $18,000,000,000 in penalties over ten years, and make key changes to Facebook and Instagram to make them safer places for kids.

这是美国企业史上最大的和解案之一。

It's among corporate America's largest settlements ever.

各州总检察长称赞这项协议是历史性的胜利。

Attorneys General hailed the deal as a historic win.

华盛顿特区的总检察长布莱恩·施瓦布称这是“年轻人公共健康的重大胜利”，并表示Meta必须安装的安全功能将从根本上、立即地改变年轻人使用Instagram和Facebook的方式。

DC's AG Brian Schwab called it a quote, monumental public health victory for young people saying the safety features Meta is required to install will fundamentally and immediately change how young people use Instagram and Facebook.

Meta在一份声明中称，这项和解是重要的一步，旨在为互联网上的儿童安全树立新的行业标准。

In a statement, Meta called the settlement an important step that aims to set a new industry standard for kids safety on the Internet.

公司写道：“我们想为家长和青少年做好这件事。”

We wanna get this right for parents and teens, the company wrote.

但Meta选择坐到谈判桌前而不是把官司打到底，这一事实恰恰说明了它现在的处境有多棘手。

But the fact that Meta came to the negotiating table instead of seeing the trial out shows how fraught its predicament is.

今年已经迎来了一波审判潮。

This year has brought a wave of trials.

很多人把这件事比作科技界的‘烟草时刻’，社交媒体面临的强烈反对已经让Meta这样的主要平台陷入了严重的法律困境。

Many have compared to Big Tech's big tobacco moment where mounting backlash against social media has resulted in significant legal peril for major platforms like Meta.

加州的这个案子被视为高潮。

This case in California was seen as the climax.

可以说是社交媒体清算的顶点。

Acme pinnacle of the social media reckoning.

几十个州联合起来指控Meta利用成瘾性设计功能吸引孩子使用其应用，然后误导公众关于这些危害的真相。

Dozens of states had come together to accuse Meta of hooking kids onto its apps using addictive design features, then misleading the public about the harms.

他们原本要求约2000亿美元的赔偿，最终只拿到了180亿。

They were seeking about $200,000,000,000 in damages and ultimately ended up with 18 of that.

托比，近十年来我们一直在想，对大型科技公司的抵制是否会带来实质性的后果或改革，昨天终于有了答案。

Toby, for almost a decade, we've been wondering whether the pushback against big tech would amount to any material consequences or reforms that was finally answered yesterday.

180亿美元对普通人来说听起来是很多钱，但Meta很容易就能负担得起。

$18,000,000,000 to normal people sounds like a lot of money, but Meta can pretty easily afford it.

首先，这180亿是分十年支付的，所以每年只需要付18亿。

One, it's $18,000,000,000 spread over a decade, so it comes out to $1,800,000,000 per year.

但这180亿中只有70%是Meta必须支付的。

But only 70% of that 18,000,000,000 is guaranteed that Meta will have to pay.

剩下的30%，我们待会儿会讲到，取决于YouTube和TikTok是否也会做出类似的让步。

The remaining 30%, which we'll get into, depends on whether YouTube and TikTok make similar concessions of their own.

Meta仅六月份一个季度的运营现金流就达到了320亿美元。

Meta generated $32,000,000,000 in operating cash flow in the June quarter alone.

所以相对于它的整体现金生成能力，这个和解并不算特别昂贵，这也是为什么有些人感到困惑，为什么昨天股价没什么动静。

So relative to its overall cash generation abilities, this settlement is not particularly expensive, which is why actually some were confused as to, why the stock didn't do much yesterday.

还有很多其他因素导致Meta的股票目前在华尔街并不受宠，但它确实短暂上涨过，不过收盘时基本持平。

There's a lot of other factors feeding into why Meta stock is not exactly loved on Wall Street right now, but it did briefly go up, but end of the day, right around flat.

比如市场观察人士吉姆·克莱默就说，哇，这只股票真是被嫌弃了，我本以为这是个大好消息，因为和解金额相比可能的最大金额来说小得多。

Jim Kramer, to cite, you know, a market watcher said, wow, this stock is hated because I would have thought that this was great news because of how small the settlement was in comparison to how big it could have been.

对。

Yeah.

我们来谈谈你提到的这两个阶段吧。

Let's talk about those two phases that you mentioned.

这个和解方案真的很有意思，非常独特。

Super interesting, very unique settlement here.

它分为两部分。

We have two parts.

一部分是Meta将在十年内支付的70%。

One is the 70% that Meta will pay out over a decade.

也就是127亿美元。

That's $12,700,000,000.

另外的30%则取决于两个条件的满足情况。

And then the other 30% is contingents on two different conditions that are met.

这两个条件是：YouTube和TikTok，作为完全独立的公司，需要实施与Meta即将推出的类似的设计变更，比如每天一小时的限制、夜间模式，这样你晚上就不会收到推送通知，以及年龄验证措施。

It's if YouTube and TikTok, which are completely separate companies, implement similar design changes that Meta is about to do like a one hour daily limit night mode, so you don't get push notifications at night, and age assurance measures.

此外，YouTube和TikTok还需要支付那30%的匹配金额。

And then also, YouTube and TikTok have to pay the 30% match.

也就是说，他们也需要支付大约50亿美元，才能解锁Meta的额外付款。

So they also have to pay about $5,000,000,000 for this to unlock Meta's additional payment as well.

所以Meta真的是要把这个和解跟整个社交媒体行业的变革绑在一起。

So Meta is really tying this to broader changes within the social media industry.

他们希望竞争对手也这么做，因为他们的理由是，你看，我们可以做出改变，但那样孩子们就会跑到其他平台去，一切还是老样子。

They want their competitors to do the same because their argument is that, look, we can make the changes, but then kids will go to other platforms and nothing will have changed.

他们还在各大报纸上投放大量广告，通过这场大型公关活动向YouTube和TikTok施压，要求他们也做出这些改变。

They're also taking out major ads and major newspapers, pushing YouTube and TikTok in this big PR campaign to make these changes as well.

所以这个和解非常有意思，也很独特，我们看到它分两个阶段，目的是要改变整个行业。

So very interesting, very unique settlement where we're seeing this in two phases designed to change the overall industry.

我觉得真正的后果不是罚款金额。

I think the real consequence isn't the monetary penalty.

而是Meta被迫改变其应用运作的方式。

It's the fact that Meta is forced to change how its apps operate.

这里的关键区别在于，你提到的那些功能，比如夜间使用时间限制、在上课时间屏蔽通知，这些都会默认开启。

The important distinction here is that those features that you mentioned, those overnight time limits, those blocking notifications during school hours, those will be on by default.

而这一直是社交媒体变革中最大的问号。

And that is always the big question mark when it comes to social media change.

如果这些功能默认开启，你就得自己进设置里手动关掉。

If features are on by default, it forces you to go through into the settings and manually toggle them off.

这比之前需要主动选择开启要麻烦得多。

That is a lot more friction than before versus if you had to opt in.

这就是主动选择开启和默认开启但可关闭的区别。

It's the opt in versus opt out debate.

所以，必须主动关闭这一点，才是人们认为能带来真正改变的地方。

So the fact that you have to opt out is the thing that people think will bring real change here.

Meta 一直很不愿意落实这些安全措施。

Meta has been very reluctant to ever put these safety measures in a place.

回到2020年，Instagram 的负责人 Adam Messeri 曾宣布要隐藏点赞数。

You go back to 2020, Adam Messeri, the chief of Instagram, announced plans to hide Instagram like counts.

这个计划酝酿了很久，但最终放弃了，因为他不想减少人们在 Instagram 上花的时间。

That was something that's been in the works for a long time now, but ultimately backed away from the plan because, he did not want to reduce, the amount of time people spend on Instagram.

毕竟，Instagram 的整个商业模式就是靠你刷屏的注意力来卖广告的。

I mean, Instagram's entire business model relies on your attention scrolling so they can sell you ads.

你做的任何减少用户注意力的决定，对生意都不好，这也是为什么这感觉像是一个大进步，因为这些阻断注意力的措施现在对孩子们和他们的社交媒体默认开启了。

Any decisions that you make that reduces that intention is bad for business, which is again why this feels like a big step forward because these are attention blocking measures that are now on by default when it comes to kids and their social media.

对。

Yeah.

简单总结一下，如果你是一个18岁以下的孩子或者你是家长，以下是Meta因为和解协议将要改变的具体功能。

Just to sum up, so if you are a kid under 18 or you're a parent, here are the exact features that Meta is going to change because of the settlement.

会有每天两小时的使用时间限制。

There's gonna be a two hour daily time limit.

晚上默认无法访问。

No access at night as deep as default.

上学时间没有通知，每连续使用屏幕十五分钟就会提示，比如“嘿，你已经用了一段时间了”，还有更强大的家长控制。

No notifications during school hours, prompts every fifteen minutes of continuous screen time being like, hey, you've been using this for a while, and more robust parental controls.

总结一下，我觉得有一股浪潮。

To sum this up, I think there is a wave.

不可否认，现在有大量的势头在对抗大型科技公司。

There there's no denying that there's a ton of momentum building against big tech.

我们已经看到很多国家把社交媒体限制在16岁以上。

We've seen a number of countries limit social media to under to over 16.

澳大利亚是第一个，但英国、加拿大、丹麦、印度尼西亚和新西兰也都在跟进。

Australia was the first, but then Britain, Canada, Denmark, Indonesia, and New Zealand are all following suit.

与此同时，Meta仍然面临数千起由学区和个人原告提起的诉讼。

Meanwhile, Meta still faces thousands of lawsuits that have been filed by school districts and individual plaintiffs going ahead.

有很多人把大型科技公司比作大型烟草公司。

There's been a lot of comparison about big techs, big tobacco moment.

把Meta现在的处境和菲利普·莫里斯当年的处境相比。

This this moment for Meta compared to this moment for, let's say, Philip Morris.

当年他们在九十年代达成和解，那让他们免于所有未来的诉讼。

Well, when they reached the settlement back in the nineties, that wiped out, that shielded them from all future lawsuits.

但这次不一样，所以Meta还有很多法律纠纷要处理。

This one doesn't, so Meta still has a lot of legal wrangling still to go.

昨天早上五点半，那位著名的市场预言家吉姆·克莱默发推说，我感觉今天会是重要的一天。

At 05:30AM yesterday morning, the infamous market soothsayer, Jim Kramer tweeted out, I sense a monumental day.

是什么让克莱默在一个看似平常的周三早早起床、准备大干一场？

What had Kramer up early and ready to roll on a seemingly random Wednesday?

好吧，你不能怪一个人为全球最大的公司发布第三季度财报而兴奋。

Well, you can't fault a man for getting excited for the biggest company in the world to report its third quarter earnings.

英伟达没有辜负克莱默先生的期望，

Nvidia lived up to the expectations Mr.

而且表现超出了预期。

Kramer foisted upon it and more.

他报告了近1000亿美元的收入，并强调未来还有更多增长。

He reported nearly $100,000,000,000 in revenue and emphasized there is more growth to come.

英伟达是市场的风向标，投资者不仅关注他们报告的数字，还关注他们未来的指引，以判断这趟AI快车是否有足够的燃料继续前行。

Nvidia is the market bellwether and investors pay attention not only to the numbers they report, but their guidance going forward to see if the AI freight train has enough fuel to keep chugging along.

在这方面，英伟达打消了所有担忧。

And on that front, Nvidia soothed any worries.

华尔街原本预期其收入增长45%，但英伟达说，不，不止这些。

Wall Street had been expecting its revenue to grow 45%, but Nvidia said, nuh-uh.

你觉得下个财年增长70%怎么样？

How does 70% growth in the next fiscal year sound to you?

令人难以置信的是，即使以我们的规模，需求仍在加速增长，其首席财务官表示。

Incredibly, we are seeing demand acceleration even at our scale, its CFO said.

首席执行官黄仁勋随后向大家保证，引用原话，“AI基础设施的建设正在全速推进。”

CEO Jensen Huang followed that up by assuring everyone that quote, the AI infrastructure build out is at full steam.

当然，当AI交易在市场上大放异彩时，仅仅表现出色已经不够了。

Now, of course, when the AI trade is popping up most of the market, it's almost not enough to be amazing.

你必须表现得非常出色。

You have to be spectacular.

英伟达股价在财报发布前连续七个交易日下跌，但最终上涨了7%，投资者松了一口气。

Nvidia stock had closed lower for seven straight days leading into earnings, but finally rose 7% as investors breathe a sigh of relief.

不过，松了一口气也引出一个问题：松什么气？

Still a sigh of relief begs the question, relief from what?

尽管英伟达连续16个季度超出预期，但最近从芯片销售商转向数据中心融资方的举动让一些人感到不安。

Despite Nvidia beating expectations 16 quarters in a row, its recent moves from chip seller to data center financier has some people nervous.

英伟达从多家金融机构筹集了5000亿美元的信贷额度，帮助客户更轻松地购买其芯片，这引发了循环融资的担忧。

Nvidia has assembled a $500,000,000,000 credit line from various financial firms to help its customers better afford its chips, raising concerns of circular financing.

尼尔，昨天的情况完美地体现了英伟达目前所处的困境。

Neil, yesterday was a perfect microcosm of the predicament Nvidia finds itself in.

它不仅要一个季度接一个季度地交出漂亮的成绩单。

Not just enough for it to report great numbers quarter after quarter after quarter.

它已经成了AI界的代言人，不得不为整个行业发声。

It's become the AI Lorax forced to speak for the entire industry.

英伟达一个季度赚近1000亿美元并不意外，因为如果你几周前关注大型科技公司的财报的话。

Not exactly a surprise that Nvidia is making a $100,000,000,000 nearly a $100,000,000,000 in a quarter because if you paid attention to big tech earnings a few weeks ago.

每一家都站出来说，我们今年要在AI资本支出上花大约2000亿美元，从Meta到亚马逊到谷歌。

Each one of them came up and said, we are gonna spend like $200,000,000,000 this year on AI CapEx from Meta to Amazon to Google.

而这些支出大部分都流向了英伟达。

And most of that spending is going to Nvidia.

所以英伟达正在收获回报，但这也开始变成一种风险，一种负担，因为那些超大规模云服务商，那些大型科技公司，占了英伟达大约一半的收入。

And so Nvidia is reaping the rewards, but that also is becoming a bit of a risk, bit of a liability because those hyperscalers, those big tech companies account for about half of Nvidia's revenue.

你提到的这个转变，就是英伟达要成为AI银行，它正在努力吸引新客户。

And this transformation that you're talking about for Nvidia to become the more the bank of AI, it's trying to attract new customers.

而这些客户往往比Meta小。

And these customers are often smaller than Meta.

比亚马逊也小。

They're smaller than Amazon.

而且英伟达的产品很贵。

And Nvidia stuff is expensive.

所以他们现在做的就是解锁大量融资，让这些较小的、信用不太好的公司也能开始购买他们的芯片。

So what they're doing is unlocking a lot of financing so that these smaller companies, these less credit worthy companies can start buying their chips.

这叫做供应商融资。

It's called vendor financing.

这在电信行业用过。

It's been used in the telecom.

你知道，在99年和2000年的时候有过泡沫。

There was a bubble, you know, back in '99 and 2000.

所以我们就看看接下来会怎么发展吧。

So we'll see how this plays out.

但这确实是一个非常引人注目的转变，因为很多人就是买不起英伟达的产品。

But it's been a very fascinating transformation because a lot of people just can't afford Nvidia stuff.

所以他们说，来，我们帮你搞定融资，这样你就能从我们这儿买东西了。

So they're saying, here, we're going to help you get financing for that so that you can buy stuff from us.

这真的说明了你如何成为自己成功的牺牲品。

It really just shows how you become a victim of your own success.

每当你在生活中做成了某件大事，人们就会说，好吧，那你接下来打算做什么？

Whenever you do something great in this life, people go, alright, well what's the next thing that you're gonna do?

而现在，对英伟达芯片的需求几乎没什么可担心的。

And right now there's very little concern about demand around Nvidia's chips.

就像每个季度，他们都证明了这种需求是持久的。

Like quarter after quarter, they have proved that this is durable.

人们会继续花钱，这些超大规模数据中心运营商会继续购买英伟达的芯片。

People are going to spend, these hyperscalers are going to buy Nvidia chips.

那投资者在担心什么呢？

So what are investors concerned about?

他们担心循环融资的问题，同时也担心中国市场。

They're concerned about circular financing, but they're also concerned about China.

英伟达目前依然没有把来自中国的收入计入预期。

Nvidia still isn't counting on any money coming out of China going forward.

他们预计下个季度来自中国的数据中心收入为零。

It expects zero data center revenue from China next quarter.

所以这是第一个担忧点。

So that's concern number one.

第二点，我们之前聊了很多关于内存价格上涨的话题。

Number two, we've talked a lot about how memory prices have been going up.

这对英伟达也有影响。

That hurts Nvidia as well.

他们表示，由于内存也是成本的一部分，未来毛利率会下降。

They're saying that their gross margins are going to fall going forward because they also have memory as an input cost.

第三点，他们自己的客户群体中开始出现竞争。

And then number three, they kind of have competition emerging from their own customer base.

OpenAI和Anthropic都在研发自己的定制芯片，这些芯片是根据他们特定的AI需求设计的。

OpenAI and Anthropic are both working on their own custom chips designed around their specific AI needs.

黄仁勋对此不以为意，说那些芯片非常针对他们的需求。

Jensen Huang kind of shrugged it off and say those are very specific to their needs.

我们仍然是很多人会使用的通用计算平台，但这些问题现在悬在英伟达头上。

We are still the general computing platform that a lot of people are going to use, but those are the question marks that are now hanging above Nvidia.

他们的芯片需求倒不是问题。

Not so much is their demand for their chips.

接下来，比尔·盖茨对AI发展的速度感到担忧，他写了一篇近6000字的文章来表达他的顾虑。

Moving on, Bill Gates is scared of the pace of AI progress, and he wrote a nearly 6,000 word essay to voice his qualms.

他的主要观点是，开发AI的人知道它可能变得多么危险，但经济激励太大，让他们无法公开说出来。

His main point, the people building AI understand how dangerous it could become, but the financial incentives are so great it prevents them from saying so publicly.

这种私下和公开之间的脱节，源于盖茨自己在科技界的经历。

The private versus public disconnect comes from Gates' own experience in the technology world.

他提到了自己经历过的三个技术转折点。

He points to three technological turning points he has lived through.

第一个是在八十年代，他看到了图形界面，这让他确信个人电脑会成为未来。

The first was back in the eighties seeing graphical interfaces which convinced him that personal computers would become the future.

但随后，他把看到ChatGPT和Claude代码的实际应用，与电脑并列，视为他人生中其他重要的技术时刻。

But then he puts seeing ChatGPT and Claude code in action right up there alongside computers as the other seminal tech moments of his life.

正是基于这样的背景，盖茨开始谈论他最深的担忧，那就是AI与过去的技术革命不同。

It is with that context in mind that Gates launches into his darkest fears, namely that AI differs from other tech revolutions of the past.

大多数技术倡导者认为，新的突破可能会摧毁一些工作，但会创造更多新的工作。

Most tech proponents argue that new breakthroughs may destroy some jobs, but will create even more new ones.

然而，盖茨认为AI是“完全、绝对、彻底、根本”不同的。

Gates, however, looks at AI as quote, utterly, absolutely, completely, totally different.

首先，大多数技术不会像AI那样带来生物恐怖主义的威胁。

For starters, most technology doesn't bring with it the threat of bioterrorism in the same way AI does.

盖茨还认为，大规模失业是可能的，因为AI不仅影响单一行业，而是影响经济的各个方面，让很多人面临失业的风险。

Gates also thinks mass unemployment is possible because AI doesn't just affect a single industry, but all parts of the economy leaving lots of people vulnerable to job losses.

盖茨心里有一些解决方案。

Gates has some solutions in mind.

第一，让政府对AI的使用征税，这样用AI替代人类工人就会更贵。

One, have governments tax AI usage, making it more expensive to replace a human worker with AI.

第二，把某些工作设为AI禁区，盖茨称之为“人类保留岗位”，比如像护理员这样的工作。

And two, make some jobs off limits to AI in what Gates dubs human reserved roles, which he'd apply to jobs like caregivers, for example.

尼尔，鉴于盖茨近年来的公开失误和他作为世界最富有的人之一的地位，这里有很多可以批评他的地方。

Neil, plenty of room here to critique the messenger given Gates' public missteps in recent years and his position as one of the richest people in the world.

但你对这个观点本身怎么看？

But what do you think about the message itself?

我想游说比尔·盖茨把播客主持人也列为人类保留岗位。

I would like to lobby Bill Gates to make podcasters human reserve jobs too.

让我注意的是，这是三年前的那个人吗？

What stood out to me is, is this the same guy from the three years ago?

因为三年前他也写过关于AI的文章，他说，看，也许AI对工作的冲击会有些波折，但会是可控的过渡。

Because he also wrote something about AI three years ago, and he said, look, maybe AI job disruption is gonna be bumpy, but it would be a manageable transition.

人们的工作效率会更高。

People would work more efficiently.

这会带来巨大的收益。

It's gonna bring about huge gains.

所以不久前他对这项技术还相当乐观。

So he was pretty optimistic about the technology not too long ago.

现在他写了这篇近六千字的文章，说：‘我震惊的是，我居然是第一个说这太疯狂的人。’

And now here he writes this nearly 6,000 word screed saying, quote, I am in a state of shock that I'm sort of the first one saying this is crazy.

这太离谱了。

This is insane.

我只是被这种沉默震住了。

I'm just deafened by the silence.

所以这是一个在科技行业待了很久的人，对AI将给人类带来什么，来了个一百八十度大转弯。

So this is a person who has spent a lot of time in the tech industry doing a complete 180 on what he thinks AI is going to bring to humanity.

我不禁想到这些故事在我们今天节目安排中的位置。

I can't help but think about the position of these stories in our show lineup today.

我们刚刚谈到英伟达说，绝对，我们看到AI变得有用了。

We just talked about Nvidia saying that absolutely we are seeing AI become useful.

我们看到这种大规模采用，增长会全速继续。

We're seeing this mass adoption, like growth is going to continue full steam ahead.

然后比尔·盖茨说，等等，这项技术的经济实用性并不能抵消它最终是否对社会有益的问题。

And then you have Bill Gates saying like, wait a second, the economic usefulness of this technology does not offset the question of whether it is ultimately good for society.

所以那是他的重点。

So that was his big thing.

他还试图论证，他特别有资格提出这个论点，因为他在科技行业工作过，他理解技术，而且他也没有任何财务激励。

He was trying to make the argument too that he is uniquely positioned to make this argument because he has worked in technology, he understands it, He also doesn't have any financial incentives.

你可能会对此翻个白眼，因为他仍然持有大量微软股票，但他说，我现在可以成为那个拉响警报的人，即使其他所有公司都被他们将获得的经济利益蒙蔽了双眼，而不是考虑这对社会真正意味着什么。

You might roll your eyes on that one because he still owns a lot of Microsoft stock, but he was saying that I can be the person to sound the alarm right now even though all these other companies are just kind of blinded by the economic benefits that they will reap rather than what it will actually mean for society.

这场辩论的展开真是引人入胜，因为Anthropic的首席执行官达里奥·阿莫德因对AI过于悲观而受到科技界许多人的批评。

Fascinating how this debate is playing out, because Anthropic CEO Dario Amade has been criticized by many in the tech world for being too doom and gloom about AI.

他公开表示，我认为50%的白领工作将被淘汰。

He's come out and said, I think that 50% of white collar jobs are going to be wiped out.

大家都在说，你在干什么呢？

And people are saying, what are you doing?

你这不是在向人们推销这个产品吗？

Like, you're trying to sell this product to people.

你不能说这会是人类文明的终结。

You can't say this is gonna be the end of all humanity.

它会消灭50%的工作岗位。

It's gonna wipe out 50% of jobs.

所以他在那方面就低调了一些。

So he's gone a little more quiet on that respect.

比尔·盖茨说，听着，我其实同意你的观点，老兄。

Bill Gates is saying, look, I actually agree with you, dude.

你也应该站出来说话。

Like, you should also speak up.

然后另一方面，Meta的CEO马克·扎克伯格在过去几周发布了新的乐观AI信息，说我认为AI对人类真的会很好。

And then we also have Mark Zuckerberg on the other hand, the CEO of Meta, launching this new optimistic AI message over the past couple of weeks saying, I think AI is gonna be really good for humanity.

这些言论的走向真的很有意思。

Just really interesting how this messaging is playing out.

然后还有数据中心的问题，你知道，十个人里有九个都讨厌数据中心。

Then you have the whole data center issue where people, you know, nine out of 10 people hate data centers.

而这将成为AI产业发展的一个生存威胁。

And that is going to be an existential threat for the growth of the AI industry.

所以比尔·盖茨出来说，看，如果你觉得数据中心的问题很糟糕，那你就需要被监管了，因为当所有人都因为AI失业时，随之而来的反弹会让数据中心的反弹看起来根本不算什么。

So here's Bill Gates coming in saying, look, if you think the data center thing is bad, you need to be regulated because the backlash that is coming when everyone loses their jobs because of AI will make the data center backlash look like basically nothing.

好的。

Alright.

我们稍作休息，之后马上回来，继续看交易数据。

We're gonna take a quick break and come back with deals numbers right after this.

来认识一下亚马逊广告的新星达里尔·斯宾塞，他创立了品牌Crown Skin，致力于重新定义男性自我护理。

Meet Amazon Ads rising star Daryl Spencer, who set out to redefine men's self care with his brand Crown Skin.

亚马逊广告帮助他实现了增长。

Amazon ads helped him grow.

我离开了大科技公司，去打造一个没人关注的高端品牌。

I walked away from big tech to build a luxury brand in a category that no one was paying attention to.

在亚马逊广告的帮助下，我触达了相关受众，和男性护理领域的大牌竞争。

With the help of Amazon ads, I'm reaching relevant audiences and competing with the biggest names in men's grooming.

我们的月收入已经超过了50万美元。

We've scaled to over $500,000 in monthly revenue.

在advertising.amazon.com/rising-stars观看Crown Skin的故事。

Watch Crown Skin's story at advertising.amazon.com/rising-stars.

我们熟知的网络安全已经死了。

Cybersecurity as we know it is dead.

这是一种夸张的说法，但事实是，旧模式建立在防护、安全网、恢复计划之上，这些系统是为了应对上一个时代、维持现状而设计的。

It's a figure of speech, but the truth is the old model was built on protection, safety nets, recovery plans, systems designed to withstand the last era and maintain the status quo.

AI时代要求你有信心确保并加速业务运营，这样没有什么能阻止你的势头。

The AI era demands confidence that you can secure and accelerate your business operations so nothing stops your momentum.

Rubrik能给你这种信心。

Rubrik can give you that confidence.

他们的单一平台旨在保护你的数据、控制你的AI、保护你的身份，这一切都是作为一个整体架构构建的，而不是事后拼凑起来的。

Their singular platform is designed to secure your data, control your AI, and protect your identity built as one architecture, not stitched together after the fact.

想了解更多，请访问rubrik.com/mb。

To learn more, head to rubrik.com/mb.

就是rubrik.com/mb。

That's rubrik.com/mb.

尼尔，你知道父母们总是会收到很多关于孩子衣服的没完没了的建议吗？

Neil, you know how parents always get loads of unsolicited advice about kids' clothes?

我相信，但我不能说我有过这种经历。

I believe it, but I can't say I've experienced it.

等等。

Wait.

你是不是要当爸爸了？

Are you expecting a

不是。

No.

想要真正靠谱的童装，那就选little sleepies。

For clothes you can actually count on, there's little sleepies.

little sleepies是由真正的妈妈们创立的，专为带娃日常设计。

Real moms created little sleepies with clothing designed for the realities of daily life with babies and kids.

而且面料超级柔软、弹性十足，还没有扎人的标签。

Plus, super soft, super stretchy fabrics and no scratchy tags.

快去littlesleepies.com给你家孩子囤几件吧。

Snack some for the kids in your life at littlesleepies.com.

网址是littlesleepies.com。

That's littlesleepies.com.

欢迎来到《尼尔的数字》环节，在这里我会分享本周新闻里的三个数据，听完之后你的朋友都会叫你“万事通”。

Welcome to Neil's Numbers, the segment where I share three stats in the week's news that will have your friends nicknaming you Claude.

第一个数字，你觉得美国的科技之都是哪里？

For my first number, what would you say is the tech capital of The United States?

因为答案可能没你想的那么简单。

Because it's not as clear cut as you might think.

根据世邦魏理仕最新的科技人才报告，纽约已经超越旧金山湾区，成为科技从业人数最多的地区。

According to the latest tech talent report from CBRE, New York has overtaken the San Francisco Bay Area as the region with the highest tech workforce by total headcount.

从2022年到2025年，纽约都会区的科技人才增长了8%，超过了39.4万人，而湾区的科技从业人数则下降了6%，大约为37.5万人。

The New York Metro Area grew its tech talent to over 394,000 between 2022 and 2025, an 8% increase, while the Bay Area's tech workforce shrank by 6% to around 375,000.

纽约之所以现在领先，是因为它的产业基础比旧金山更多元化，而且这些行业，比如银行、保险、房地产，都全力投入人工智能，扩充了他们的技术团队，以享受AI时代带来的效率提升。

The reason New York is now on top is it's got a more diversified industry base than San Francisco, and those industries, banking, insurance, real estate, have gone all in on artificial intelligence, bolstering their tech teams to reap the efficiency benefits of the AI age.

摩根大通的首席执行官杰米·戴蒙最近表示，我认为在某些类别中，我们会雇佣更多的AI人才，而减少银行家的数量，这会让他们更高效。

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said recently, I think we will be hiring more AI people and fewer bankers in certain categories and it will make them more productive.

而高盛正在打造一个所谓的数字工厂，用来自动化金融领域的重复性任务。

While Goldman Sachs is building a so called digital factory floor to automate the repetitive tasks in finance.

好的。

Alright.

所以现在纽约在人才方面占了优势。

So New York now has the edge in talent.

不过，说到资金流向，硅谷依然是所有道路的终点。

However, when it comes to following the money, all roads lead to Silicon Valley still.

《华尔街日报》报道说，自今年年初以来，加州的公司已经筹集了大约三千六百六十亿美元的风险投资。

The Wall Street Journal reported that companies in California have raised around $366,000,000,000 in venture funding since the start of the year.

这比其余四十九个州加起来的总额还要多三倍以上。

That is more than three times the amount of the other 49 states combined.

排名第二的纽约初创公司只筹集了二百七十亿美元。

Startups in New York in second place raised just 27,000,000,000.

我觉得纽约因为一件事变成科技之都，这真的挺有意思的。

I think it's so funny that New York has become this tech capital because of one thing.

他们想在高度监管的业务中把AI投入实际应用，而不是仅仅试验这项技术。

They want to put AI into production inside their highly regulated businesses rather than simply experiment with the technology.

这主要是——不，不完全是，但这是旧金山正在发生的事情的一大部分，就是那些研究人员只想为了钻研而钻研，而纽约那边不一样。

That is mainly what's not mainly, but that is a big portion of what's going on in San Francisco is that you have these researchers who just want to go down the rabbit hole for the sake of going down versus in New York.

他们会想，等等。

They're like, wait.

这能让我们效率提高2%。

This can make us 2% more efficient.

咱们能招多少人就招多少人。

Let's hire every single person we can.

所以，我觉得这是最大的分歧点。

So that's, I think, the biggest disconnect.

但你说得对，旧金山并不是科技界里一朵枯萎的花。

But you are right to say that San Francisco is not this wilting daisy in the tech world.

它确实吸引了所有的风险投资，而且它甚至还没有失去AI领域的桂冠。

It's not it's clearly attracting all of the venture dollars, and it really hasn't even lost the AI specific crown either.

他们在AI专家的绝对数量上仍然领先，不仅仅是广泛的科技工作者。

They still lead in raw number of AI specialists, not just broad tech workers.

AI占旧金山所有科技职位招聘的26%，而纽约只有17%。

AI represents 26% of all SF tech job postings versus just 17% in New York.

所以它仍然是宇宙的AI中心。

So still very much the AI center of the universe.

接下来我要说的数字是，日本首相有点像个隐士。

For my next number, the prime minister of Japan is kind of a hermit.

至少，她很喜欢在家办公。

At the very least, she loves working from home.

据《日经新闻》上周五报道，自去年十月上任以来，石破茂在大多数周末和公共假日都没有出过家门。

Since entering office last October, Sunei Takaiichi has not left her house at all on a majority of weekends and public holidays, Nikkei reported last Friday.

相比之下，日本前三位首相在非工作日完全待在家里的时间最多只占16%。

Compare that to Japan's previous three prime ministers who spent a maximum of just 16% of non weekdays entirely at home.

彭博社对她的日程进行了更深入的分析，发现了更多证据表明她就是想一个人待着。

Bloomberg dug into her schedule even deeper, finding more proof she just wants to be left alone.

截至7月，石破茂与财务省官员会面的次数比前两位首相少了50%，而且自2012年以来，她举行的内阁会议次数是所有领导人中最少的。

As of July, Takaiichi met with finance minister officials 50% less often than the previous two PMs, while holding the fewest cabinet meetings of any leader since 2012.

她又不是在打游戏。

It's not like she's playing video games.

上个月，石破茂在社交媒体上庆祝自己终于睡了个五小时的觉，这是很久以来的第一次，因为自从当上首相以来，她通常只睡零到三个小时。

Last month, Takaiichi celebrated on social media that she finally got five hours of sleep for the first time in a while with zero to three hours being the norm since becoming prime minister.

然而，这种独处时间已经变成了一个政治问题，反对党领导人和媒体人士纷纷指出石破茂有宅在家里的倾向。

However, all this alone time has become a bit of a political problem and opposition leaders and media figures have called attention to Takaiichi's home burned tendencies.

几天前，她在X上为自己辩护，写道，在官邸进行的工作，比如在那里举行的会议，不会作为首相日常行程的一部分来报告，但在我看来，这里也是工作场所。

A few days ago, she defended herself on X, writing work conducted at the official residence such as meetings held there are not reported as part of the prime minister's daily schedule, but from my perspective, it's also a workplace.

零到三个小时的睡眠？

Zero to three hours of sleep?

我再也不会抱怨了。

I will never complain again.

另一个关于她隐居生活的热门故事是，她搬进首相官邸时，和一只蟑螂交了朋友。

The other story that is going viral around her hermit ness is the fact that she befriended a cockroach when she moved into the official residence for the prime minister.

她说，那里，我从来没有遇到过鬼，因为绝对有传言说这个官邸闹鬼。

She said that one, there's I have never encountered her ghost because there's absolutely rumors that this residence is haunted.

但她确实遇到了一只蟑螂，但在杀死它之前，她心想，等等。

But she did encounter a cockroach, but before killing it, she was like, wait.

等一下。

Wait a second.

万一这是漫长轮回循环的一部分呢？

What if this is part of the long cycle of reincarnation?

她和那只蟑螂成了朋友。

She befriended the cockroach.

最后，他们请人来喷了杀虫剂。

Eventually, they had someone come in and kind of spray for bugs.

她还说，虽然松了口气，但心里有点空落落的，有点难过，因为她再也没有蟑螂伙伴了。

And she added, I was relieved but somehow felt a little lonely, a little sad because she no longer had her cockroach buddy.

最后我要说的数字是，冰岛几乎没有谋杀案，但犯罪却是它最受欢迎的文学题材。

For my final number, Iceland has virtually no murders, yet crime is its favorite literary genre.

《纽约时报》一篇有趣的文章指出，冰岛人口只有40万，几乎没有谋杀案。

In a delightful article, the New York Times notes that Iceland with a population of 400,000 people has virtually no murders.

当凶杀案数量从2020年前的两起翻倍到之后几年的大约四起时，这成了大新闻。

It was major news when the number of homicides doubled from two before 2020 to about four in the years after.

根据一些调查，冰岛是世界上最安全的国家。

According to some surveys, it's the safest country in the world.

但冰岛人在现实生活中缺少的犯罪，他们通过大量阅读犯罪小说来弥补，这已经成为该国最受欢迎的文学类型。

But whatever crime they lack for in real life, Icelanders make up for by devouring crime fiction, which has become the most popular type of literature in the country.

一位冰岛犯罪小说作家，同时也是前总理，告诉《纽约时报》，冰岛每年虚构的谋杀案比真实的还多，还说，这挺好的。

One Icelandic crime writer who also happens to be the former prime minister told the Times, there are more fictional murders in Iceland every year than real, adding, which is good.

那么，是什么让冰岛人着迷于他们根本无法亲身经历的暴力故事呢？

So what draws the people of Iceland to violent stories they simply cannot relate to?

一个因素可能是对更广泛的北欧黑色小说传统的拥抱，凡是读过《龙纹身的女孩》的人都知道，生活在瑞典、芬兰和冰岛这些北欧国家的人，就是喜欢精彩的谋杀悬疑故事。

One factor may be an embrace of the broader Nordic noir heritage, as anyone who's read Girl with the Dragon Tattoo knows, the people who live in these northern European countries like Sweden, Finland, and Iceland love a good murder mystery.

但也许影响更大的是冰岛萨迦，有时被描述为冰岛人的第二本圣经。

But maybe more influential are the Icelandic sagas, sometimes described as Icelanders second bible.

这些最早可追溯到十三世纪的故事至今仍在高中教授，描述了血腥的北欧世仇和浪漫情敌，这些主题在现代犯罪惊悚片中依然回响。

These stories from as early as the thirteenth century are still taught in high schools and describe bloody Norse feuds and romantic rivalries, themes that echo in modern day crime thrillers.

不过，托比，还是得承认这挺奇怪的。

Still, Toby, kinda have to admit it's odd.

冰岛历史上只出过一个连环杀手，而且他在1596年就死了。

There's only been one serial killer ever in Iceland, and he died in 1596.

这些冰岛作家真让我忍俊不禁，因为他们会说，我们的素材太匮乏了，都没什么可取材的。

These Icelandic authors crack me up because they're like, we have such poor source material to pour pull from.

有人说，典型的冰岛谋杀案就是两个醉汉在厨房里打架。

One said, the typical Icelandic murder is two drunk guys in a kitchen.

大多数谋杀案都是这么发生的。

That's how most of the murders happen.

就是打起来了。

You just get into a brawl.

所以对作家来说，这不算什么刺激的素材。

So it's not exactly exciting for authors.

所以这些作家就开始发挥创意了。

So these authors get creative.

他们开始随时给全职法医打电话，一天二十四小时都打。

They have started calling up the a full time forensic pathologist twenty four seven.

他们问，如果尸体在熔岩里腐烂，会有什么反应？

They're like, how does a body react if it is decaying in lava?

一开始，法医觉得这还挺有意思的。

And at first, the pathologist was like, this is kind of fun.

就像，我很喜欢在这里当专家。

Like, I love being the expert here.

他开始为此开课，但后来他最终说，好吧。

He started teaching a course on it, but then eventually he was like, alright.

这有点过头了。

It's getting too much.

对我来说太血腥了。

It's gotten too gory for me.

别再打电话给我了。

Stop calling me.

你们就自己编吧。

Just make it up, guys.

没关系的。

Like, it's fine.

这只是一本书。

It's a book.

写犯罪小说的时候，你是可以加入虚构情节的。

You're allowed to inject fiction into a crime fiction.

他说，为什么不呢？

He says, why not?

你想说什么都行。

You can say whatever you like.

所以特别搞笑的是，他们求着要一点素材，而那个人说，哥们，你自己编就行了。

So just a very funny thing of them begging for any morsel of material, and the one guy saying, dude, just make it up.

没事的。

It's fine.

好的。

Alright.

我们赶紧收尾，来看最后几条头条新闻。

Let's sprint to the finish with some final headlines.

昨天出现的那些画面，简直就像直接从末日电影里搬出来的一样。

Yesterday brought images that seemed directly lifted out of an apocalypse movie.

中国和尼泊尔边境的洪水以难以想象的威力席卷了城镇和村庄，摧毁了沿途的一切，包括人。

Massive floods on the border between China and Nepal swept into towns and villages with unimaginable force, obliterating everything in their path, including people.

尼泊尔至少有168人遇难，来自50个不同国家的1000多人仍然下落不明。

At least 168 people have been killed in Nepal, and over 1,000 more are unaccounted for from 50 different countries.

病毒式传播的视频展示了平静的场景，然后突然，一堵比你见过的任何东西都大的水墙，以你无法想象的威力吞没了画面。

Viral video showed peaceful scenes, and then wham, a wall of water bigger than you've ever seen with a force you can't even fathom engulfing the frame.

全球的研究人员试图弄清楚这么大的洪水是怎么发生的，因为气象官员说该地区没有显著的降雨。

Researchers across the globe were trying to piece together how this large of a flood could have occurred because weather officials said there's been no significant rainfall in the area.

他们聚焦于一个主要假设：一块宽达2000英尺的巨大冰块从喜马拉雅山脉高处的冰川上断裂，坠落了近4000英尺，落到谷底时化为水，引发了致命的洪水和泥石流。

They're zeroing in on one leading hypothesis, that a huge chunk of ice with a width of 2,000 feet snapped off a glacier high in the Himalayas and plunged almost 4,000 feet to the valley floor where it was atomized into water, sparking the deadly deluge and mudslides.

这些视频真是难以想象。

These videos are unfathomable.

这些视频现在在社交媒体上到处都是，但看的时候要小心。

They're around social media right now, but watch them at your own caution.

还有341名外国人失踪，其中包括47名美国人。

There are still 341 foreign national missing as well, including 47 Americans.