油价持续上涨，《海洋奇缘》票房惨败

营销人员，你们有没有遇到过这种情况？

Marketers, tell us if this sounds familiar.

你投了大笔钱做推广，比如追求几百万的浏览量，结果却一点收入都没看到。

You invest in something that seems incredible like millions of views, but then don't see any revenue.

不如把钱花在 CFO 看得懂、觉得值的地方。

Instead, invest in what looks good to your CFO.

LinkedIn 广告的广告投资回报率，是所有主流广告平台里最高的。

LinkedIn ads generates the highest ROAS of all major ad networks.

在 LinkedIn 广告上首期投放 250 美元，立得 250 美元返现。

Spend $250 on your first campaign on LinkedIn Ads and get a $250 credit.

直接去 linkedin.com/mbd 就行。

Just go to linkedin.com/mbd.

就是 linkedin.com/mbd。

That's linkedin.com/mbd.

具体条款请参见官网。

Terms and conditions apply.

早上好，欢迎收听《Brew Daily Show》。

Good morning, Brew Daily Show.

我是雷蒙德·卢。

I'm Raymond Lou.

我是凯拉·洛佩兹。

And I'm Kaila Lopez.

今天，迪士尼的真人版《海洋奇缘》在票房上遭遇滑铁卢。

Today, Disney's live action Moana crashes at the box office.

还有，派拉蒙与华纳兄弟的合并案尚未尘埃落定。

And why the Paramount Warner Bros.

这场合并还没最终敲定。

Merger isn't a done deal just yet.

今天是7月14日，星期二。

It's Tuesday, July 14.

咱们开始吧。

Let's ride.

早上好。

Good morning.

今天，我们请回了凯拉做客节目。

Today, we've got Kaila back on the pod.

欢迎回来，凯拉。

Welcome back, Kaila.

非常感谢你们邀请我。

Thanks so much for having me.

全世界的Chipotle粉丝，你们可能会喜欢这个消息。

Chipotle fans all over the world, you might love this.

这家热门的快餐连锁品牌即将在墨西哥开设首家门店。

The popular fast casual restaurant chain is opening up its first ever restaurant in Mexico.

是的。

Yes.

这意味着它希望作为一个美国品牌，把源自墨西哥风味的食物卖回给墨西哥人，并且能取得成功。

That means it's hoping it'll be successful as an American brand that makes Mexican inspired food and selling it back to Mexicans.

首家门店将位于蒙特雷大都会区，希望到2027年能扩展到墨西哥城。

The inaugural store will open up in the Monterrey Metro Area and hopefully expand into Mexico City by 2027.

凯拉，这步棋可真够大胆的。

Kaila, this is a pretty bold move here.

你觉得能成功吗？

You think it'll work?

说实话，我觉得有可能。

Honestly, I think it might.

也许这只是我的看法，但我觉得Chipotle跟真正的墨西哥菜差得太远了，当地人可能就当它是搬来个健康沙拉吧。

Maybe this is just my opinion, but I feel like Chipotle is so far removed from actual Mexican food that maybe it'll feel like it's just a healthy salad bar moving into town.

不过，这也不是第一家美国公司想把受墨西哥启发的餐食卖回墨西哥了。

But this isn't the first time that an American company has tried to sell food back to the country that inspired its menu.

比如塔可钟2010年就试过，结果撤了；达美乐披萨2022年也从意大利退出了。

For example, Taco Bell tried and left Mexico in 2010, and Domino's Pizza actually left Italy in 2022.

这个嘛，我也不确定。

Well, I don't know.

也许现在它能行得通。

Maybe it could work today.

现在有社交媒体，人人都在喊要双倍鸡肉。

It's you got social media and everyone asking for double chicken.

也许Chipotle看到了我们没注意到的东西，咱们走着瞧吧。

Maybe the Chipotle sees something that we've done, but we shall see.

接下来请听我们的赞助商AltraRunning的广告。

And now a word from our sponsor, altrarunning.

嘿，Kaila。

Hey, Kaila.

你喜欢在外面待着吗？

Do you like to stay out there?

不喜欢。

No.

那是Macy的爱好，我可怕她了。

That's Macy's thing, and I'm scared of her.

说实话，我也是这样想的。

To be honest, I kinda am too.

但我指的是在小径或公路上跑步，或者过一种健康长寿的生活。

But I meant running on the trail or road or just living a long healthy life.

你懂的，超马那套？

You know, ultra's thing?

哦，对的。

Oh, yes.

超马跑鞋的设计是为了给脚趾留出更多空间，提升舒适度、平衡感和力量。

Ultra running shoes are designed to give you room for your toes for comfort, balance, and strength.

大多数鞋子脚趾部分都比较窄，但超马鞋给脚趾留了更多空间，让脚趾能自然舒展，脚部保持自然状态。

Most other shoes are narrow at the toe, but Ultra has more room for your toes so they can spread out and your feet can stay in a natural position.

它们真的做出了形状像脚的鞋子。

They actually make shoes shaped like feet.

这想法真有意思。

What a concept.

在 ultrarunning.com/morningbrew 使用优惠码 MORNINGBREW10，首双超跑鞋立减十成。

Use promo code MORNINGBREW10 for 10% off your first pair of Ultra running shoes at ultrarunning.com/morningbrew.

网址是 altrarunning.com/morningbrew。

That's altrarunning.com/morningbrew.

周一，美国在特朗普总统宣布将重新实施对伊朗的封锁、以控制霍尔木兹海峡后数小时内，再次对伊朗发动了空袭。

The US resumed strikes against Iran on Monday, hours after President Trump said he would reinstate a blockade on Iran to take control of the Strait Of Hormuz.

他还宣布，美国将对所有货运 shipments 征收 20% 的费用，作为成本补偿。

He also announced The US would charge 20% on every cargo shipment as compensation for its costs.

目前他还没具体说明这套方案如何操作，但表示计划会立即启动。

Now, he hasn't detailed exactly how this would work, but said plans would be made immediately.

总统在社交媒体上发帖称，从现在起，美国将成为霍尔木兹海峡的守护者，并设定了周二东部时间下午四点为最后期限。

In a post on his social media, the president said The USA will be, from this point forward, known as the guardian of the Hormuz Strait and gave a deadline of 4PM Eastern Time on Tuesday.

伊朗外长阿巴斯·阿拉格希在 X 平台上回应，称伊朗一直以来都是这条海峡的守护者，并将永远如此。

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araci responded with a post on X saying Iran has always been the guardian of the strait and will remain so forever.

双方针锋相对的表态，意味着围绕海峡控制权的对峙恐怕还会持续下去。

The dueling comments means it'll likely be another continued standoff over the control of the strait.

简单回顾一下时间线，特朗普政府曾表示，今年六月中旬达成了一项临时和平协议，其中包括撤回美国的海军封锁。

And to go over briefly of the timeline, the Trump administration stated stated that an interim peace deal had been made back in mid June, including pulling back The US naval blockade.

报道称，局势一度朝着积极方向发展，直到7月7日，伊朗被指控在海峡袭击了三艘船只。

Reports indicated progress was moving forward up until July 7 when Iran was accused of striking three ships in the strait.

美国随即对伊朗的数十个目标发动打击，并重新实施了对伊朗石油出口的制裁。

The US responded by striking dozens of targets in Iran and reinstating sanctions on Iran's oil sales.

7月8日，特朗普宣布停火结束，但表示谈判仍可继续，而战争的担忧再次升温。

Then on July 8, Trump declares that the ceasefire was over but says negotiations can continue while fears of the war perk back up again.

凯拉，任何新收费都可能推高油价，根据彭博社的数据，按当前油价计算，20%的收费对一艘满载原油的油轮来说大约是3200万美元。

Kaila, any new fee means a potential threat to raise fuel costs, and a 20% charge would work out to be about $32,000,000 for a fully loaded crude carrier at current oil prices according to Bloomberg.

那么市场对此有何反应？

So how are the markets reacting?

正如你过去在播客里提到的，全球高达20%的石油都要经过这条海峡。

Well, as you've discussed on the pod in the past, up to 20% of the world's petroleum passes through this strait.

所以，海峡局势的任何变动都会对油价产生重大影响，事实也确实如此。

So obviously, any changes on the strait will have material impacts on oil prices, and they did.

市场确实有反应。

The markets reacted.

消息一出，油价立刻飙升，昨天原油价格涨到了每桶80美元以上，这是自六月美伊达成停火协议以来的首次。

Oil prices jumped on the news, and the price of crude rose above $80 a barrel yesterday for the first time since June when The US and Iran agreed to a ceasefire.

昨天标普500指数也小幅下跌了约0.8%。

The S and P 500 was also down a little bit about 0.8% yesterday.

但这真的只影响油商和今天去加油的人吗？

But does this really impact anyone besides oil traders and maybe people that are filling up today?

当然会影响。

Yes.

油价上涨，汽油价格自然也会跟着涨，这不用说。

Oil prices increasing will, of course, impact the price of gas Right.

如果油价持续走高，影响就远不止加油站了——机票、食品价格，甚至整体通胀压力都会被推高。

At the pump, but sustained increases can impact everything from airline tickets to food costs to general inflation pressure.

如果美伊关系只是短期波动，那这波涨价可能很快就会消退，甚至根本不会发生。

If this is a short term change in the relationship between The US and Iran, it's possible that the price increases may be short lived or not happen at all.

过路费或许能缓解美国面临的部分经济压力，但具体怎么起作用还不太清楚。

The toll revenue could potentially stem some of the economic pressure we feel in The US, but it's not exactly clear how that would work.

是的。

Yeah.

我还想聊聊这个过路费的合法性，因为特朗普宣布对所有货物征收20%费用后，很多人第一反应就是：这合法吗？

And I do wanna get into the legality of the toll because when Trump announced this 20% fee on all shipments, the first thing many are saying is, is this even legal?

国际海事组织明确表示：不合法。

Well, the IMO flatly said no.

一位发言人说，我们一贯坚持反对收取此类费用的立场。

A spokesperson said, We have always been consistent on our stance on fees.

国际海事组织坚决反对对用于国际航行的海峡收取通行费，没有任何法律依据允许仅因通过海峡就强制收费。

IMO stands firmly against charging fees for passage through straits used for international navigation, and there is no legal basis through which to introduce mandatory tolls simply to transit through a strait.

就连国务卿马克·卢比奥之前也说过，任何国家都不能对国际水道收取过路费或税费，因为有国际法这么回事。

Even State Secretary Marco Rubio said before, no country is allowed to charge tolls or fees on an international waterway because there's this thing called international law.

而且，这件事的可操作性本身也成问题。

And then there's a whole feasibility of it all.

你记得吧，伊朗曾经试图征收过境费，一艘船就要收两百万美元。

If you remember, Iran attempted to enforce its own transit tolls, charging $2,000,000 for a single vessel.

现在按百分之二十算，每艘船高达三千万美元，这对船运公司来说是个巨大的操作难题。

Now at 20%, dollars 32,000,000 poses a massive logistical hurdle for a fleet operator.

而且这些航运合同都是提前好几个月谈好的。

Also, these shipping contracts are negotiated months in advance.

结果突然之间宣布这样的政策，搞得一片混乱。

So to make an announcement just like this overnight, it's causing a lot of chaos.

所以这个封锁一出来，很多人都觉得一头雾水。

So with this blockade, it's just leaving many to kind of scratch their heads.

是的。

Yeah.

这说得通。

That makes a lot of sense.

战争爆发前，据CNN报道，每天平均有110艘船经过霍尔木兹海峡。

And before the war, an average of a 110 vessels passed through the Strait every day according to CNN.

现在显然少了很多，最近每天只有大约六艘船通过。

That's obviously drastically fewer now with about six reported a day recently.

如果恢复到正常水平，这三千万美元对美国来说就是一笔可观的收入。

If that returned to normal levels, of course, that $32,000,000 would be material revenue for The US.

但这可能会让货主开始寻找其他路线。

But it could have cargo companies looking for alternatives.

这笔过路费的数额实在太大了。

That's a huge amount of, of tolls to pay.

所以，雷，货物还有没有别的运输方式？

So, Ray, are there any other options for cargo?

航运业的消息源说，船只正越来越多地关闭公开的AIS定位发射器，相当于在黑暗中穿越海峡。

Well, the shipping industry sources say that ships are increasingly switching off their public AIS tracking transponders, essentially traveling through the Strait in the dark.

据彭博社报道，周日通过霍尔木兹海峡的六艘大宗商品运输船，全都关闭了定位设备。

According to Bloomberg, all of the six commodity carriers that passed through the Hormuz on Sunday did so with their transponders turned off.

这导致了一种被称为‘黑航’的现象，别忘了海峡两边都有航道。

It's kind of turned this thing called dark crossings because remember there's two sides of the strait.

海峡北岸由伊朗控制，南岸则由阿曼掌控。

There's the northern side controlled by Iran, and then there's the southern side controlled controlled by Oman.

虽然南线受到美国保护，但仍可能遭到伊朗的袭击。

The southern route, even though it is protected by The US, it is open to Iranian attacks.

但北线要缴纳伊朗的费用，还可能因不走南线而面临美国的处罚。

But the northern route is subject to Iranian fees and potentially US penalties for not using the southern route.

这样一来，这些货轮就陷入了两难境地。

So it kinda puts these carrier ships in quite a dilemma.

这场冲突迫使货轮不得不秘密穿越海峡。

This conflict has forced these these ships to travel through the strait secretly.

但关键问题是：如果货轮逐渐习惯把这种隐蔽通行当作常态，用来应对政治冲突和非法收费，当它们刻意避开全球监管、偷偷穿越海峡时，国际法又该如何保护或规范这条全球供应链呢？

But the big question here is if shipping containers get used to relying on dark crossings as their new normal responds to political conflicts and illegal tolls, how will international law protect or regulate that global supply chain if it's intentionally hiding itself from the world when it's crossing secretly through the strait?

接下来，派拉蒙还面临另一个障碍：由加州牵头的十二个州联合提起诉讼，试图阻止该公司收购华纳兄弟。

Moving on, in another hurdle for Paramount, a coalition of 12 states led by California is suing to block the media company in its acquisition of Warner Bros.

探索频道。

Discovery.

这些总检察长称这是一次非法合并，会导致电影和电视内容价格上涨、质量下降、选择变少。

The attorneys general are calling it an unlawful merger that would lead to quote, higher prices, lower quality, and less content for film and television.

合并后，新公司几乎会掌控三分之一的院线电影和有线电视节目，比如CNN、CBS新闻和探索频道，还会把Paramount Plus和HBO Max都收归同一旗下。

As combined, it would control almost one third of theatrical films and cable programming like CNN, CBS News, and Discovery, plus also bringing Paramount Plus and HBO Max under the same corporate.

该联盟要求，在法律程序结束前，不得完成这笔交易。这对Paramount来说可能是个麻烦，因为他们曾向华纳股东承诺，如果9月30日前没能完成交易，每季度要支付6.5亿美元的费用。

The coalition requested that the merger isn't closed until after this legal process is over, which could be a problem for Paramount as they promised Warner shareholders about $650,000,000 per quarter in fees if they don't close the deal by September 30.

这距离司法部批准这笔交易才过去一个月，而公司此前已经获得了包括中国、澳大利亚等二十多个国家的监管批准。

This comes about one month after the justice department signed off on the deal and after the company has received regulatory approvals in over 20 countries.

雷，为什么这些州现在才出来反对？

Ray, why are the states pushing back now?

你可能会想，既然司法部已经放行，Paramount也拿到了包括中国、澳大利亚这些大市场在内的二十多个国家的批准，这12个州凭什么觉得能赢下这场官司？

Well, you might be thinking if the justice department has already given it a green light and Paramount has already got approvals from 20 countries including massive markets like China Australia, how does a ban of these 12 states expect to win a case like this?

其实这背后涉及的是美国反垄断法的双重主权特性。

Well, it's actually rooted in a dual sovereign nature of US antitrust law.

容我暂时戴上法律学者的帽子，简单说两句。

If I may put my quick legal scholar hat on for a second.

各州总检察长有权独立执行反垄断法，可以代表本州民众同时执行州和联邦的反垄断法规。

State attorneys general have independent authority to enforce antitrust laws, meaning they can enforce both state and federal laws on behalf of their citizens.

这是因为，在1890年联邦《谢尔曼法案》出台之前，各州就已经制定了自己的反垄断法律。

This stems from the fact that states passed their own antitrust laws before the federal Sherman Act of 1890.

到了1976年，国会修改了《克莱顿法案》，授权各州总检察长将违反《谢尔曼法案》的行为诉诸联邦法院。

Then, in 1976, Congress amended the Clayton Act that authorizes state AGs to bring any antitrust violations of the Sherman Act to federal court.

所以回到现在，由加州总检察长罗布·邦塔领导的这个联盟，实际上是在说联邦政府没尽到责任，因此各州必须挺身而出，遏制企业过度合并。

So bringing it back to today, this coalition led by California's AG Rob Bonta is essentially saying the federal government here isn't doing its job properly, which means the states have to step up and step in as a check against corporate consolidation.

这段法律历史真有意思。

I love the legal history we got.

谢谢。

Thank you.

今天这课学得值。

Lesson we got here.

对。

Yeah.

派拉蒙已经回应了这起诉讼，称这是对反垄断法的错误适用，并且推迟这笔交易只会伤害那些近年来已经遭受损失的影视从业者。

And Paramount has already responded to this suit saying that it's a quote, flawed application of the antitrust laws and that delaying this transaction will only harm entertainment workers who have already suffered over recent years.

然而，已有超过四千名好莱坞人士联名反对这项合并，包括罗伯特·德尼罗、索菲亚·科波拉、马克·鲁法洛、J·J·艾布拉姆斯等重量级人物，名单还很长。

However, over 4,000 Hollywood figures have signed on to a campaign opposing the merger, including pretty big names like Robert De Niro, Sofia Coppola, Mark Ruffalo, JJ Abrams, the list goes on.

都是大人物。

Heavy hitters.

没错。

Yeah.

但真正让人担忧的是媒体行业的集中化问题。

But the real concern here is about media consolidation.

四十年前，控制媒体的大型公司有五十家，现在只剩下六家了。

Forty years ago, there were 50 major companies that were, controlling the media, and now the media is controlled by six corporations.

大公司越多，小制片厂就越难挤进这个圈子。

Larger corporations means that smaller studios may have a harder time breaking into the space.

但这真的不好吗？

But is that a bad thing?

发行范围更广，意味着每家公司掌握的权力也更大，一旦有公司操控或扭曲媒体内容，影响的受众就会更广。

Wider distribution means more power for each company, and which means that one company censoring or skewing the media could reach a wider population.

不过，支持媒体整合的人认为，这些大公司规模庞大，能更高效地降低成本，也更容易扛过经济低迷，确保你还能看到《爱岛》的下一季。

However, advocates of media consolidation say that the massive scale that these companies reach mean they can cut cost efficiently and weather financial downturns more easily, making sure that you still get the next season of Love Island.

为了提醒大家，如果这笔交易完成，市场上将只剩下四家公司——派拉蒙、迪士尼、环球和索尼，控制大约86%的广泛上映电影市场。

So just to remind people, if this deal closes, there would just be essentially four companies Paramount, Disney, Universal, and Sony that would control roughly 86% of the market for widely released films.

根据这起诉讼，这四家发行商还将掌控超过90%的票房最高影片。

And those four distributors would control more than 90% of top grossing films according to the lawsuit.

我想明确一点，这里说的都是大制作电影，比如你平时看的暑期大片。

And I do want to be clear here, these are big budget films, like your typical summer blockbuster.

所以各州想强调的是，这笔合并会让派拉蒙在这些大片发行上占据主导地位，因为他们觉得在这方面的诉讼更有把握。

So the states want to focus on the fact that this merger would kind of give Paramount the ability to dominate these big wide releases because I think they feel like they would have a bigger case in this.

否则，他们并不想直接挑战整个电影产业。

Otherwise, they don't want to just tackle the entire film industry.

那样的话，案子范围太大，他们赢不了。

It'd kind of be too broad of a case for them to win.

还有一点值得注意的是，大卫·埃里森曾公开承诺每年至少在影院上映30部电影，以支持影院运营，这一承诺也赢得了AMC的支持。

Another thing to note here is that David Ellison publicly pledged to release at least 30 films a year in cinemas to help theaters out, so which actually got the backing of AMC to support the deal.

但还有一个名为‘影院联合’的团体，代表了全美超过三万一千块银幕。

But there's another group called Cinemas United, represents 31,000 screens, more than 31,000 screens across the country.

他们完全支持州政府的诉讼，因为他们认为这不仅会影响好莱坞和洛杉矶这样的大地方，更会伤害到小城镇的影院。

They're actually fully backing the state's case because they're saying it wouldn't just affect Hollywood and LA and Tinseltown, it would actually hurt small town theaters in smaller communities.

接下来，一部电影才出了三部，观众就会对《海洋奇缘》感到审美疲劳了吗？

Moving on, is it possible to have Moana fatigue after just three films?

迪士尼可是用惨痛的教训才明白了这一点。

Well, Disney found out the hard way.

真人版《海洋奇缘》原本期待首周末票房能冲到六千万美元，结果国内票房只拿到了四千三百万。

The live action Moana had its sights on a $60,000,000 opening, but only came away with $43,000,000 at the domestic box office over the weekend.

这部影片制作成本高达两亿五千万，营销又花了整整一亿，这样的开局对迪士尼来说实在不妙。

It's a troubling start for Disney that sunk in about $250,000,000 to make and another $100,000,000 to market.

对迪士尼而言，这成绩追平了去年《白雪公主》的惨淡开局，成为其所有真人翻拍动画经典中开画最低的一部。

For the studio, it tied last year's box office bomb Snow White for the lowest opening of any of its live action remakes of animated classics.

虽然影评人对它评价很差，烂番茄综合评分只有34%，但观众却很喜欢，综合评分高达90%。

While critics hated it, giving it a 34% aggregate score on Rotten Tomatoes, audiences kind of loved it, giving it an aggregate score of 90%.

2016年的原版动画《海洋奇缘》全球票房高达6.4亿美元，至今仍是Disney+上观看次数最多的电影，致敬所有当父母的观众。

The original 2016 animated Moana grossed $640,000,000 and became the most watched movie of all time on Disney plus Shout out to all my parents out there.

2024年上映的《海洋奇缘2》票房突破了10亿美元。迪士尼表示，这个开画周末是个不错的开端，接下来整个暑期档都会和家庭观众一起继续放映。

Moana two, which came out in 2024, grossed over $1,000,000,000 In a statement, Disney said the opening weekend was a good start ahead of its full month of summer vacation play with families.

凯拉，我得说实话，看到这部真人版《海洋奇缘》的预告片时，我心里就想：又来？

Kaila, I have to be honest, when the trailer for this live action Moana came out, I thought to myself, already?

看来不只我一个人这么想。

Seems like I wasn't the only one.

是的。

Yeah.

我根本没打算看这部电影，这周末我反而去看了《玩具总动员5》。

I really had no interest in seeing this movie and I actually watched Toy Story five this weekend instead.

那部片子表现不错。

Which did well.

票房表现非常好。

It did great.

这确实是迪士尼一次出人意料的失误，不过背后有个挺有意思的故事。

And this is a really surprising misstep from Disney, but it does have an interesting backstory.

据说，《海洋奇缘2》原本计划做成Disney+上的电视剧，主要是为了吸引更多订阅用户。

So apparently, Moana two was actually slated to be a television series on Disney plus, presumably to attract more subscribers to that platform.

但高管们看了早期片段后，决定把它改成一部票房大片，转而优先追求即时收益和盈利能力，而不是单纯拉新订阅。

But it was transformed into a blockbuster movie when, executives saw early footage and when the media giant decided maybe to shift their strategy to prioritize immediate revenue and profitability instead of Disney plus subscribers.

不过这个决定导致真人版《海洋奇缘》从原定的2025年夏天上映，推迟了一年，改到这个周末，好让两部片子错开档期。

But that decision meant pushing back the live remake of Moana from summer of twenty twenty five release date by one year to this weekend to give each movie some breathing room.

但也许这个失误根本不是因为档期太近。

But it's possible that that mistake wasn't about proximity.

你要是见过孩子，应该知道，他们特别乐意一遍又一遍地看同一部电影。

I don't know if you've ever met a child, but they're typically very willing to rewatch the same movie over and over again.

还有同一首歌。

And the same song.

是的。

Yeah.

我是说，我那一年里可能看了《龙猫》四百多遍。

And I'm I mean, I must have seen Kiki's Delivery Service like 400 times in one year.

所以，我得向我爸妈道个歉。

So apologies to my parents on that.

但我怀疑，问题可能出在故事太相似了。

But I wonder if it's about the similarity in the stories.

迪士尼并没有给这个故事带来新的视角，据我所知，自从我没看过这部真人版之后，网上已经有不少人讨论了。

Instead of providing a more unique take on the same story, Anecdotally, I've seen a lot of chatter online since I haven't seen the the live remake.

但感觉这部真人版几乎是一模一样地复刻了动画原版。

But, it feels like the live action remake is bar for bar very very similar to the animated original.

这种缺乏新意的改编，可能正是让一些观众选择待在家里的原因。

And that lack of a unique take on the same story may be responsible for keeping some viewers at home.

所以，Ray，我想问你，美国人是不是已经对老生常谈的故事感到厌倦了？

So Ray, my question to you is, are Americans sick of the same old stories?

还是说，根本没人愿意去电影院了？

Or are they just not showing up to movies at all?

这可能只是迪士尼面临的短期问题，因为今年整体票房其实相当不错。

Well, this just might be an acute problem for Disney because the box office has been overall pretty good this year.

今年国内票房总额已达到约44.6亿美元，是自2019年以来最高的。

Domestic total domestic box office reached roughly $4,460,000,000 so far this year, the highest it's since been in 2019.

这是《华尔街日报》的数据。

That's according to The Wall Street Journal.

今年很多重磅影片实际上都达到了甚至超过了预期。

Many event films this year have actually met and surpassed expectations.

比如《星际过客》、《超级马力欧兄弟大电影》、迈克尔·杰克逊传记片、《穿普拉达的恶魔2》，还有像《迷恋》和《后室》这样的低成本恐怖片也表现亮眼。

You're thinking about Project Hail Mary, Super Mario Galaxy movie, the Michael Jackson biopic, Devil Wears Prada two, and then you also have low budget horror standouts like Obsession and Backrooms.

当然，还有本周五上映的《奥德赛》、《沙丘3》、第四部《蜘蛛侠》电影，以及《复仇者联盟：末日》——说起来挺有意思，我们刚才还提到了《玩具总动员5》。

And of course, you have heavyweights like The Odyssey coming out this Friday, Dune Part three, the fourth Spider Man movie, and Avengers Doomsday, which is kind of funny we mentioned Toy Story five.

《玩具总动员5》票房表现其实很不错，首周末就创下了该系列纪录，收入达1.6亿美元。

That actually did well, setting a franchise record with $160,000,000 during its opening weekend.

所以在我看来，这次迪士尼确实没做好。

So to me, it seems like Disney just played it wrong this time around.

感觉他们急着把这部真人版《海洋奇缘》推出来。

It felt like it was kind of rushing to get this live action Moana out.

很多人说，原版动画上映才十年，要是想打情怀牌，十年根本不算久。

A lot of people are saying, look, ten years from the original animated classic, if you're trying to play on the whole nostalgia factor, ten years is not that long No.

还没能真正站稳脚跟。

To to kinda land.

看来他们这次真是犯了个大错。

So it seems like they they just had a big misstep here.

明白了。

Okay.

我们先休息一下，回来再聊凯拉的趋势。

We're gonna take a quick break, and we'll come back with Kaila's trends.

嗨，托比。

Hey, Toby.

你学鸭子叫学得怎么样了？

How's your duck impression?

没想象中那么像。

It's not all it quacked up to be.

我可不接这种冷笑话。

I refuse to engage with a joke that hacked.

行吧，那我来说。

Okay, then I'll talk.

Aflac 会快速、准确、公平地处理员工的理赔申请，而且企业无需直接承担任何费用。

Aflac pays employees claims fast, accurately, and fairly, and their plans come at no direct cost to businesses.

此外，通过税前工资扣除的方式，还能帮雇主和员工节省税款。

Plus, they help save employers and employees tax dollars when payroll deductions are withheld pretax.

所以，几乎所有提供 Aflac 服务的企业都表示，他们很可能会继续使用。

That's why nearly all businesses that offer Aflac say they're likely to continue.

想了解更多，就去 aflac.com/morningbrewdaily 吧。

To learn more, just head to aflac.com/morningbrewdaily.

那就是 aflac.com/morningbrewdaily。

That's aflac.com/morningbrewdaily.

当 Hydro Jug 的需求下滑时，亚马逊广告的新星海登·沃德斯沃思果断调整了方向。

When demand slowed for Hydro Jug, Amazon Ads rising star Hayden Wadsworth pivoted.

当我们银行账户快见底时，我和弟弟杰克只剩下最后一次机会来挽救 HydroJug。

When our bank account hit near zero, my brother Jake and I had one last shot to save HydroJug.

于是我们设计出了 Traveler，一款防漏、能放进杯架的水杯。

So we engineered the Traveler, a leak proof, cup holder friendly tumbler.

亚马逊广告能让企业拓展产品线，因为它提供了前所未有的曝光和覆盖范围。

Amazon Ads enables a business to be able to expand their product shelf because of the visibility and the reach you can get.

每周，我们新客户带来的销售额占总销售额的95%左右。

Each week, our new to brand customers make up about 95% of all of our sales.

想了解 Hydro Jug 的故事，请访问 advertising.amazon.com/risingstars。

Watch Hydro Jug's story at advertising.amazon.com/risingstars.

托比，你有个点子，还有一台浏览器吗？

Toby, you got an idea and a browser?

检查一下浏览器。

Browser check.

有什么想法吗？

Idea?

我真期待我的第一个作品。

I can't wait for my first one.

为什么？

Why?

因为这些就够了，足以开发真正的软件。

Because that's all you need to build real software.

无论是需要客户管理系统、内部追踪工具，还是一个应用程序，Bolt.new 都能和你一起打造。

Whether you need a CRM, an internal tracker, or an app, Bolt dot new builds it with you.

描述一下你的需求，Bolt.new 就能帮你开发出来，周末前就能拿到手。

Describe what you need, and Bolt dot new can build it, and you can have it shipped by the weekend.

不是原型，是真正能用的产品。

Not a prototype, the actual thing.

立即前往 bolt.new/mb 开始使用。

Get started at bolt.new/mb.

前100位使用代码 MB 26 的听众，将免费获得一个月 bolt.newpro 服务。

And the first 100 listeners to use code MB 26 will get a free month of bolt.newpro.

就是 bolt.new/mb。

That's bolt.new/mb.

显然，今天托比没来。

So obviously, Toby is not here today.

对。

Mhmm.

那我来试着模仿一下本周的托比趋势。

So I'm gonna do my best impersonation for this week's Toby's trends.

本周的趋势是当铺。

And this week's trends is Pawn shops.

如果你还没看过《典当之星》这675集——没错，已经播了二十多季了。

If you haven't seen any of these 675 episodes of Pawn Stars, that's true, over twenty seasons.

当铺是用现金换你贵重物品的生意。

Pawn shops are businesses that give you cash in exchange for your valuables.

你可以直接卖东西，但当铺主要做的是典当贷款——你把物品交给他们，换一笔现金。

While you can sell your stuff outright, Pawn shops primarily provide Pawn loans where you basically give them your items in exchange for some cash.

之后三十到九十天内，你带着现金加利息回去，就能把东西拿回来。

Then in thirty to ninety days, you return with the cash plus interest and you get your items back.

如果你没按时还钱加利息，他们就会在店里把你的东西卖了。

If you don't return with the cash plus interest, they can sell your valuables in their shop.

虽然把奶奶的订婚戒指交给一个叫大霍斯的人，放上几个月，感觉不太舒服，但这类贷款不需要信用审核，也不查工作证明，还不上也不会影响你的信用记录。

Though it may not feel great to drop off your grandma's engagement ring with some guy named Big Hoss for a few months, these loans don't need credit checks or employment verification, and it won't hit your credit score if you don't pay them back.

所以，如果你手头紧、急需用钱，典当贷款确实是个不错的选择。

So these Pawn loans are looking pretty good if you have limited options and need cash quickly.

现在越来越多的人急需现金，当铺生意也因此越来越火。

And these businesses are finding that more and more people do need cash quickly.

两家上市的典当公司上季度财报都创了新高，平均每笔典当贷款金额也从2022年的160美元涨到了230美元。

The two publicly traded Pawn corporations both posted record financials last earnings, and the average pawn loan has increased to $230 from a $160 in 2022.

这种增长背后有几个原因。

There are a few reasons behind this increase.

首先，黄金和白银价格上涨，意味着你的珠宝在当铺能换来更多现金。

First, with the price of gold and silver up, it means your jewelry can fetch higher loans at the shop.

其次，疫情之后，普通人的储蓄减少了，NPR指出，这导致人们对当铺贷款和其他高成本借贷的需求上升。

And second, average savings have decreased since COVID, meaning there's a higher need for pawn loans and other high cost debt according to NPR.

雷，这个趋势还说明了美国消费者的什么情况？

Ray, what else does this trend say about the American consumer?

是的。

Yeah.

当铺其实可以看作是消费者行为的一个风向标，尤其是在人们急需用钱的时候。

So pawn shops can be viewed as this sort of bellwether for consumer behavior, especially when they are in need of cash fast.

因为这些顾客通常不愿意跟大银行打交道，而大银行更倾向于服务那些申请大额贷款的人。

Because these are customers that don't want to deal with the big banks, who often prefer customers seeking large loan amounts.

我说的是五位数，甚至六位数的贷款。

I'm talking like 5 figures, maybe even 6 figures.

这些顾客往往需要一两千、最多几千块，就为了撑过这个月。

These are customers who are more in need of sometimes 1,000, a couple thousand, just to get them through the month.

这也反映了K型经济，我们在这档播客里聊过很多次——美国消费者其实分成了两条路：一边是经济宽裕、能持续花钱、带动经济稳定的群体；另一边是面对日常用品涨价却捉襟见肘的人。

But this also points to the K shaped economy, which we've talked about many times on this pod, where the American consumer can be basically on two different tracks: the affluent consumer who has the means to keep spending and spending and spending kind of uplifting and keeping the economy stable and then you have the consumer who has to struggle with higher prices for everyday goods.

所以当铺为那些急需付房租、买 groceries、甚至偶尔想度假的人提供了一条出路。

So these pawn shops provide a relief for those in need to pay for their groceries, pay rent, maybe even take an occasional vacation.

我觉得每个人都该有个假期。

I think everyone deserves a vacation.

这些人把家里的东西押在当铺，换点现金应急。

So these are folks who are putting up their items to get a loan for cash.

他们不想跟大银行打交道。

They don't wanna deal with the big banks.

而当铺正是抓住了这个机会。

And these Pawn shops are taking advantage of the situation.

完全正确。

A 100%.

我真没想到，这些当铺现在居然在卖爱马仕包这样的高端商品，而且还同时瞄准了K型经济的两端。

And I can't believe that the trend of seeing these Pawn shops selling high end things like Birkins and actually targeting both sides of the K shaped economy.

确实如此。

Yeah.

这些顾客其实也买得起，当铺吸引的正是这样一批人——他们有本事应付日常开销，偶尔也想犒劳一下自己。

I mean, these are customers who also can afford it's kind of attracting there's always this this is what happens where it attracts a kind of new level of customers where these are now customers that can afford everyday goods but may want to kind of treat themselves every now and then.

他们不再直接去专柜买香奈儿包，而是跑到当铺里淘二手货，图个划算。

So instead of getting a Chanel bag at full retail, you're seeing them go to Pawn shops to kind of score these good deals.

我们正看到一种趋势：二手奢侈品正在成为主流。

And we see these trends that will be covered as secondhand luxury items.

所以，这些当铺在这种环境下，最终还是赚到了。

So now these pawn shops, again, ultimately they kind of win in this environment.

好了，咱们赶紧进入今天的最后几条新闻。

Alright, let's spin to the finish for our final headlines for the day.

西雅图海鹰队不仅靠赢得超级碗登上了NFL的巅峰，还成了某位科技富豪的收购目标。

The Seattle Seahawks not only did a Super Bowl win put them at the top of the NFL, it made them the top of a to buy list for a tech billionaire.

太阳微系统联合创始人维诺德·科斯拉和他的家人已同意以96亿美元的价格收购西雅图海鹰队，这一价格创下了NFL球队控股权的最高纪录，超过了由私募巨头乔什·哈里斯领衔的集团以60亿美元收购华盛顿指挥官队的交易。

Vinod Khosla, co founder of Sun Microsystems, and his family have agreed to buy the Seattle Seahawks for $9,600,000,000 a record price for the controlling stake of an NFL franchise that actually surpasses the sale of Washington Commanders for $6,000,000,000 by a group led by private equity titan Josh Harris.

自微软联合创始人保罗·艾伦2018年去世后，海鹰队的未来就一直悬而未决。艾伦早在1997年就买下了这支球队。

The future of the Seahawks have been kind of up in the air since the death of Microsoft co founder Paul Allen, who bought the team back in 1997.

海鹰队赢得超级碗后，艾伦的遗产管理方很快就宣布球队将对外出售，就在他们举起隆巴迪奖杯后不久。

Once the team won the Super Bowl, the Allen estate actually announced the team was up for sale shortly after they hoisted the Lombardi Trophy.

但在科斯拉完成收购之前，他必须先退出自己在旧金山49人队的少数股权——也许这能帮我们跨过这道坎。

But before Khosla can complete the purchase, he'll have to divest his minority stake in the 49ers who, you know, maybe this will help us get over the hump.

凯拉，这步棋看来是势在必行了。

Kaila, this seems to be the move.

波士顿凯尔特人队就经历过同样的事：刚赢下冠军，球队估值立刻飙升，然后就以数十亿美元的价格卖掉了。

The Boston Celtics went through the same thing, win a championship, raise your value, then sell the team for billions of dollars.

是的。

Yeah.

刚赢下一场大比赛，确实是出手球队的好时机。

Right after a big win seems like a great time to sell a team.

作为一名美洲虎队的球迷，我可能一时半会儿还看不到球队易主。

And as a Jags fan, maybe I won't see the team change hands for for a minute.

但他们刚赢了冠军，一周之内就宣布要卖球队了。

But it only took a week after winning before the team announced it was up for sale.

这看起来确实转得挺快，但其实他们并不是单纯等着赢球才卖球队的。

It does feel like a quick turnaround, but it's not exactly the case that they were just waiting for a big win to sell, the team.

就像你提到的，2018年海鹰队老板去世后，球队被交给了艾伦的妹妹乔迪·艾伦管理的信托基金。

So when the Seahawks owner died in 2018, as you mentioned, the team was placed in a trust controlled by Allen's sister, Jody Allen.

但这个信托基金从一开始的使命就是把球队卖掉。

But the mandate of the trust was always to sell the team.

只是这件事花了一些时间才办成。

It just took a little bit of time to do that.

不过，NFL的规则要求球队必须由个人主要持有，不能由信托这样的实体控制。

However, NFL league rules require that a team be primarily owned by an individual, not an entity like a trust.

所以今年二月就有报道称，NFL正在施压乔迪·艾伦和信托基金尽快出售球队，甚至据说还对海鹰队处以五百万美元的罚款，尽管联盟后来否认了这一说法。

And so reports came out in February that the NFL was allegedly pushing Jody Allen and the trust to sell the team, even reportedly fining the Seahawks $5,000,000, although the league denied those allegations.

不管球队出售的真正原因是什么，这笔交易显然赚大了。

Regardless of the reasoning why the team was sold, it seems like it certainly paid off.

接下来说点别的。

Moving on.

如果你一直想一口气吃掉四碗意大利宽面配阿尔弗雷多酱，那好消息来了。

If you've ever wanted to eat four bowls of fettuccine Alfredo in one sitting, good news.

橄榄园餐厅即将限时回归它的‘无限意面通票’。

Olive Garden is bringing its never ending pasta pass back for a limited time.

一万名幸运顾客可以花100美元买到这张通票，13周内无限畅吃任意意面菜品。

For the 10,000 lucky customers who claim one, a $100 pasta pass gives you unlimited access to the never ending pasta bowl menu for 13.

你连着念五遍试试。

Say that five times fast.

也就是说，你可以随便吃无限量的里戈通尼配红酱、意大利细面配番茄肉酱、宽面配肉酱，种类多到数不完。

That means unlimited rigatoni with al redo, spaghetti with marinara, fettuccine with meat sauce, the list goes on.

真香。

Yum.

你想不想参与一下？

Do you wanna get in on the action?

当然可以。

Well, you can.

从周四开始，你可以在橄榄园的官网购买这个面食通票。

Buy the pasta pass on Olive Garden's website starting on Thursday.

但你要是稍一走神，可能就抢不到了，因为往年这种面食通票一上线，几分钟内就全被抢光了。

But blink and you may miss it because over the years, these pasta passes have typically all been claimed within minutes of launch.

这是自2019年以来，橄榄园第一次重新推出这个活动。

Now this is the first time since 2019 that Olive Garden is offering this promotion.

我不禁想，这会不会跟最近GLP-1类药物让普通人食量减少的趋势有关？对橄榄园来说，这种促销可能因此更容易接受了。

And I do wonder if it has anything to do with the recent trend of GLP ones decreasing the amount of food that the average individual eats, which might make this promotion a little more palatable for Olive Garden.

这或许能改善他们的财务状况，让餐厅的运营成本稍微降低一点。

It may change those financials and make it slightly less expensive for the restaurant.

不管怎样，这听起来会是自‘时代巡演’以来最火爆的线上抢购活动了。

Regardless, it sounds like this will be the hottest online sales event since the Eras Tour.

所以，雷，你会去排队抢意大利面通票吗？

So, Ray, are you gonna wait in line for the pasta pass?

除非我能确保一定能拿到票。

Only if I'm guaranteed a pass.

你听我说。

Listen.

如果我真成了通票持有人，那我可就接招了。

If I'm a pasta pass holder, I say challenge accepted.

让我一整天饿着，然后把我丢进橄榄园，看我能吃多少轮。

Let me starve all day, put me in an Olive Garden, and see how many rounds I can go.

我看了些数据，Axios 对这笔账算得挺清楚的。

I was looking at some of the numbers, and Axios broke it down nicely, the economics of it all.

实际上，这方案对常去吃饭的人更有利。

And it actually favors frequent diners.

也就是说，通票持有人只要去七次，就能回本。

So in order for a pass holder to break even, they would have to just go about seven times.

所以你只需要每周每天都去，或者挑两三天，中午和晚上都去吃。

So you just need to go every day of the week, Or pick a couple of days where you go for lunch and dinner.

以前的意面通票，像你提到的，只持续八周，意味着你至少得去十次。

And before, the pasta pass, as you mentioned, only ran for eight weeks, which meant you had to go at least 10 times.

但今年的十三周促销活动，给食客们多出了五周时间，可以尽情吃个够。

But this year's thirteen week promotion gives diners an additional five weeks to kind of stuff your face with pasta.

所以听我说，我完全支持。

So listen, I'm all for it.

如果你运气好能拿到一张，那就放开吃，碳水化合物管够。

I say if you're lucky enough to get one, Carbo Load away.

最后，著名演员萨姆·尼尔突然去世，享年78岁。

Finally, Sam Neal, the iconic actor, passed away suddenly at the age of 78.

到目前为止，他的家人还没有公布死因。

So far, there's been no cause of death reported by his family.

尼尔之前曾被诊断出患有一种罕见的血液癌症，但在接受成功治疗后一直保持无癌状态。

Neil was previously diagnosed with a rare blood cancer and had remained cancer free after a successful cancer treatment.

你可能在《浴血黑帮》《钢琴课》《黑洞表面》里见过他，但最广为人知的，还是他演的那位医生。

You may know him from his roles in Peaky Blinders, The Piano, Event Horizon, but probably most famously as Doctor.

1993年版《侏罗纪公园》里的艾伦·格兰特博士。

Alan Grant in the original 1993 Jurassic Park.

更重要的是，他围绕自己在新西兰的酒庄搞了个社交媒体互动游戏。不过如果你翻遍他的IMDB页面，会发现五十多年来他参演了超过150部电影和剧集，为他的演艺生涯画上了圆满句号。

More importantly, he developed a social media game mainly around his winery in New Zealand, But if you go through his entire IMDB, he's appeared in more than 150 films and TV shows over the span of five decades, capping off a long and storied career.

是的。

Yeah.

真是令人难过，他确实拥有辉煌的一生。

Very sad news to hear and definitely a storied career.

我有点不敢相信自己居然要在网上承认，但我真的从来没看过任何一部《侏罗纪》。

I I can't believe I'm admitting this online, but I've actually never seen any of the Jurassic

凯拉。

Kaila.

公园。

Park

电影。

movies.

这周末我决定好了要做什么。

So I do know what I'm gonna do this weekend.

该来一场马拉松式观影了。

It's time for a marathon.

不行。

No.

《侏罗纪公园》系列电影可多了。

There's tons of Jurassic Park movies out there.

我觉得如果你只能挑一部看，那就看第一部。

I say if you had to watch one, it's the first one.

你的看法呢？

Your result?

我最近刚看过。

Watched it recently.

到现在还是特别精彩。

Still very much holds up.

明白了。

Okay.

太棒了。

Amazing.

今天的节目就到这里了。

That is all for today's show.

谢谢你的收听。

Thanks for stopping by.

凯拉，我再特别感谢你今天替班。

Kaila, I just wanna thank you again for subbing in.

如果你想多听听凯拉和凯尔的节目，可以去我上封邮件里提到的平台，哪里都能找到他们的播客。

If you actually wanna hear more from Kaila and Kyle, you can actually check out their podcast per my last email anywhere you get your podcast.

如果你有任何想法、赞许或建议，可以在Instagram上私信我们@mbdailyshow。

If you have any comments, kudos, or concerns, you can DM us on Instagram at m b daily show.