SpaceX 成为史上最大 IPO，世界杯投注额达 500 亿美元

人工智能还是片未知领域，很多领导者都在没有向导的情况下艰难摸索。

AI is unchartered territory, and many leaders are trying to navigate through without a guide to help them.

所以Morning Brew联合普华永道推出了新播客《智能转型》。

That's why Morning Brew created The Intelligence Shift, a new podcast with PwC.

这档节目聚焦人工智能如何从根本上改变各个行业。

It's all about how AI is fundamentally changing different industries.

主持人丹·普里斯特邀请了一众行业领袖，分享他们真实的经历和宝贵经验。

Host Dan Priest is joined by a top tier roster of industry leaders who share real stories and real lessons learned.

听听行业专家的建议，获得实用指导。

Get guidance from industry experts.

无论你在哪个平台听播客，都别错过《智能转型》。

Listen to the intelligence shift wherever you get your podcasts.

早上好，Brew每日秀。

Good morning, Brew Daily Show.

我是尼尔·弗莱曼。

I'm Neil Fryman.

我是托比·霍威尔。

And I'm Toby Howell.

今天，SpaceX即将上市，创下有史以来规模最大的IPO。

Today, SpaceX is going public in the biggest ever IPO.

这次是一飞冲天，还是还没起飞就炸了？

Will it sort of the stars or blow up on the launch pad?

博彩公司预计，今年世界杯期间每分钟将收到十万笔投注。

Then gambling companies are expecting 100,000 bets per minute on this year's World Cup.

今天是6月12日，星期五。

It's Friday, June 12.

咱们开始吧。

Let's ride.

假设我像捉瓢虫一样把你抓起来，扔进一栋房子、一座博物馆、一家超市，或者任何封闭的空间，然后让你随便走走。

Let's say I pluck you up like a ladybug and drop you in a house or a museum or a supermarket or any other enclosed space and told you to start walking around.

你觉得你第一件事会往哪个方向走？

Which direction do you think you'd go first?

一项新研究发现，你几乎总是会先往左走。

Well, a new study found that almost always you'll start walking left first.

西班牙的研究人员得出结论：人类有一种令人费解、尚无解释的逆时针运动倾向。

Researchers in Spain have concluded that humanity has a baffling unexplained tendency for counterclockwise motion.

不管你来自哪里、什么背景、多大年纪，是右撇子还是右眼优势，人们都天生倾向于向左转——这很让人意外，毕竟我们最著名的‘模特’德里克·祖兰德说过，他不是‘双向转’的人，从婴儿时期起，他就转不了左边。

Doesn't matter where you're from, your background, how old you are, whether you're right hand dominant or right eye dominant, people just have this innate left turn bias, which is surprising given our most famous strutter, Derek Zulander, said he was not an ambi turner and ever since he was a baby, he couldn't turn left.

托比，这到底是怎么回事？

Toby, what is going on?

除了祖兰德之外，我们为什么似乎都被编程成要逆时针走呢？

Why are we, besides Zoolander, seemingly programmed to go counterclockwise?

没人知道。

Nobody knows.

对。

No.

但说正经的，研究人员并没有得出明确结论，还特别指出，这跟文化习惯无关，因为在西班牙也完全一样。

But seriously, the researchers did not come to a conclusion and specifically said it's not caused by cultural norms because happened identically in Spain.

在日本也是完全一样的情况。

It happened identically in Japan.

所以在我看来，这一定是生理上的原因。

So that means to me, it must be biological.

我有个想法，不过你可别当真。

So here's one idea I have and take it with a massive grain of salt.

你的肝脏是个很重的器官，长在身体右侧，而心脏则稍微偏左。

Your liver is a very heavy organ situated on the right side of your toe, so while your heart leans a little bit to the left.

所以我们体内重量分布不均，导致重心略微偏右。

So we have uneven internal weight distribution that puts our center of math slightly to the right.

我的推测是，为了平衡这种额外的重量，你的身体在长时间行走时会不自觉地略微向左调整。

So my theory is to naturally compensate for carrying that extra weight, your biomechanics might steer you ever so slightly to the left over long distances.

这听起来挺有道理。

Makes sense to me.

我懂的不够多，没法反驳。

I don't know enough to dispel.

我也不知道。

Neither do I.

但研究人员确实说过，我们真的一点都不知道为什么会这样。

But but it's true that the researchers are like, yeah, we literally have no idea why this is happening.

我们知道跑道是逆时针的，生活中很多事也是逆时针的，但原因依然完全说不清楚。

We know that tracks go counterclockwise, a number of things in our lives go counterclockwise, but still it's it's completely unexplained.

也许你那个肝脏的说法，还真有点道理。

Maybe your liver maybe your liver explanation has little legs to it.

我觉得这话说得挺在理的。

I feel like it's true.

我刚搜了下有没有靠谱的解释，结果就蹦出这个说法。

Also, I just googled good explanations for this and that's what it came up with.

所以啊，这话你还是别太当真。

So again, take it with a grain of salt.

我的解释是去超市的那个说法。

Mine was the grocery store explanation.

比如你进超市，按我的观察，蔬果区通常都在左边。

Like when you go into a grocery store, usually, in my perception of it, the produce is to the left.

这其实是超市希望你走的路线。

And this is just where the grocery store wants you to go.

但我也不确定，这是不是我们逆时针移动的结果，还是原因。

But I don't know if that is a symptom or a cause of our counterclockwise motion.

我的意思是，如果这从人类诞生起就是生理性的，那时候根本还没有超市。

I mean, if it's biological from the moment humans existed, then we didn't have grocery stores at that time.

我觉得这太像社会文化现象了，不太可能是根本原因。

And I feel like that's too, like, social and cultural for it to be the real explanation.

不过你们要是有什么想法，我们也确实是在瞎猜了。

But if you guys have any ideas, clearly, we're grasping at straws here.

欢迎也分享一下你们的看法。

So send us your thoughts as well.

做这项研究的人，也正等着答案呢。

And so are the people that did this study.

好的。

Okay.

接下来有请我们的赞助商Sage带来一段话。

Now a word from our sponsor, Sage.

托比，你有没有通过视频自学过什么技能？

Toby, you ever teach yourself how to do something with a video?

有。

Yes.

怎么养仙人掌。

How to raise a cactus.

结果怎么样？

How'd that go?

我每天都想他。

I miss him every day.

如果你不希望你的企业项目最后像老皮尔斯那样，Sage可以帮上忙。

Well, if you don't want your enterprise implementations to end up like old Pierce, Sage can help.

他们为各种规模的企业打造了基于人工智能的财务、薪资和人力资源软件。

They build AI powered finance, payroll, and HR software for businesses of all sizes.

他们的认证合作伙伴负责实施、定制和持续优化。

Their certified partners handle implementation, customization, and ongoing optimization.

专业的公司，自然配得上专业的部署流程。

You get a professional deployment process for professional companies.

正是这种级别的支持，让全球600万家企业在150个国家选择Sage，确保随时应对审计。

That level of support is part of why 6,000,000 businesses use Sage globally across 150 countries to help stay audit ready.

想去了解更多？请访问 sage.com/morningbrew。

Just head to sage.com/morningbrew to learn more.

网址是 sage.com/morningbrew。

That's sage.com/morningbrew.

史上最受期待的IPO终于来了。

The most anticipated IPO in market history is here.

SpaceX今天将开始公开交易，这次上市将影响航天、人工智能、华尔街，甚至可能让埃隆·马斯克的净资产多加一个逗号。

SpaceX will begin trading today in a public offering that will impact space, AI, Wall Street, and whether another comma is added to Elon Musk's net worth.

这家公司的估值预计将非常惊人。

The valuation is set to be huge.

公司目标是达到1.8万亿美元的市值，这将募集超过750亿美元，是历史上任何一次IPO的两倍多。

The company is targeting a $1,800,000,000,000 market cap, which would raise over $75,000,000,000, more than two times larger than any IPO in history.

尽管名字里有‘太空’，SpaceX早已不止是一家火箭公司了。

SpaceX, despite its name, has evolved into much more than a rocket company.

马斯克把这家公司定位为人工智能领军者、数据中心建设者、通信巨头，当然，还有火星殖民公司。

Elon Musk has pitched it as an AI leader, a data center builder, a communications giant, and, of course, a Mars colonization company.

它的年收入大约是190亿美元，虽然不算小，但投资者给马斯克的帝国赋予的估值，几乎是其营收的100倍。

Its revenue is roughly $19,000,000,000, which, while not small, means traders are giving Musk's empire a valuation that is nearly 100 times its sales.

作为参考，纳斯达克100指数公司的平均市销率大约是6.8倍。

To put that in perspective, the average price to sales multiple of Nasdaq 100 companies is about 6.8 x.

苹果的市销率是10倍。

Apple trades at 10 x its sales.

不过，无论是这么高的估值，还是SpaceX上个季度亏损超过40亿美元，都没能让马斯克的粉丝们退却。

Neither the lofty valuation nor the fact that SpaceX lost over $4,000,000,000 in the last quarter is scaring Elon Musk fanboys and girls away, though.

彭博社采访了一位33岁的公关经理，她想向银行借5000美元，加上自己已经存下的6500美元，凑钱参与这次首发认购。

Bloomberg spoke to a 33 year old PR manager who tried to borrow $5,000 from a bank to go along with the $6,500 she already had saved away to buy shares in the debut.

有异常高的20%股份专门预留给了个人投资者，只要他们下单金额达到1000亿美元，这意味着普通散户将在首日股价表现上拥有巨大影响力。

An unusually large 20% of the shares were reserved for retail traders who place $100,000,000,000 worth of buy orders, meaning that everyday people will have a lot of sway over how the stock performs on its first day.

我们再退一步，来看看这件事到底有多大。

But let's just zoom out once again about how big this thing is.

它的规模超过了特斯拉、Meta和伯克希尔哈撒韦。

It's bigger than Tesla, Meta, and Berkshire Hathaway.

如果最终估值达到1.8万亿美元，那就相当于自2000年以来美国29家最大IPO的总价值，经通胀调整后加在一起的规模。

If it does trade at $1,800,000,000,000, it would equal the combined value of the 29 largest US IPO since 2000 adjusted for inflation.

尼尔，我这番话够夸张了吧？

Neil, have I hyped this up enough?

我还能再说下去。

I can keep going.

不用了。

No.

这完全说得通。

It's totally appropriate.

你用再多夸张的词都不为过。

You could throw every superlative out there.

SpaceX的IPO配得上这一切。

The SpaceX IPO deserves it.

华尔街从来没见过这样的事。

Wall Street has never seen anything like this.

连干了几十年的老手都被彻底震撼了。

It's completely breaking people's brains who've been in this industry for decades.

有个大问题。

Here's a big question.

这是真实世界，还是只是埃隆的幻想？

Is this the real life or is this just Elon's fantasy?

两边都有道理。

And there are arguments for both.

我们先来看看看多的观点。

Let's start for the bull case.

今天这股价肯定会暴涨。

This is going to pop today.

SpaceX 值得它那一千七百亿到一千八百亿美元的估值。

SpaceX is totally worthy of its one point seven, one point eight trillion dollar valuation.

这个观点就是，干脆相信埃隆，指望他能把特斯拉的故事再重演一遍。

And that case is, let's just believe in Elon and let's hope he replicates the Tesla story.

十六年前，特斯拉上市了。

So sixteen years ago, Tesla went public.

如果你在 2010 年特斯拉上市时投了一千美元，现在这笔投资已经值四十万美元了。

If you bought $1,000 worth of Tesla shares back in 2010 when it went public, your stake would be worth $400,000 today.

特斯拉现在的市值比美国销量排名前三十的车企加起来还高，尽管它在美国的销量只排第十二。

Tesla right now has a valuation that's larger than the next 30 largest car makers combined despite being ranked twelfth in US sales.

所以你其实就是押注埃隆·马斯克这个企业家、这个远见者，希望他能像在特斯拉那样，也把 SpaceX 带上巅峰。

So you you just make a bet on Elon Musk as an entrepreneur, as a visionary, and hope he can basically do what he did to SpaceX with or do what he did to Tesla with SpaceX.

我的意思是，你押的不只是他的个人魅力。

I mean, what you are betting on too, not just his force of personality.

你还在赌它会成为人工智能时代的核心基础设施公司，能成功运营庞大的AI数据中心，跟顶尖实验室签下巨额算力订单。

You're betting that it becomes the defining infrastructure company of the AI era that they can successfully operate their massive colossal colossus AI data center, sign these big compute deals with leading labs.

它的航天业务一直在爆发。

Its space business keeps popping off.

它甚至把AI数据中心搬到了太空。

It puts AI data centers in space.

这才是它核心逻辑的重要部分。

That's a big part of its thesis.

它真能殖民火星，成为这个时代定义性的太空基础设施企业——而它到目前为止已经做到了。

It does colonize Mars and becomes the defining space infrastructure business of the era, which it already has been so far.

它还会进军电信领域。

And it takes over telecom too.

它能为数十亿人提供互联网和卫星手机服务。

And you know, it provides Internet and satellite cell service to billions of people.

这正是你所期待的，也是这种评估所暗示的方向。

That is what you are hoping, and that is what this evaluation is implying.

但看空的一方会说，它目前只创造了190亿美元的收入，却亏损了将近50亿美元。

Now the bear case is is that it did only generate $19,000,000,000 in revenue while losing nearly $5,000,000,000.

这个估值简直荒唐。

The valuation is just absurd.

做空者吉姆·陈诺称这是一场‘希望与梦想’的上市。

Short seller Jim Chanos called it a hopes and dreams IPO.

晨星公司发布了一份报告，给它的估值大约是每股63美元。

Morning Star put out a report where they valued it at roughly $63 a share.

这比发行价低了整整一半。

That's 50% below the offering price right now.

所以批评者认为，你简直是把全部身家都押在了那些前景渺茫的未来项目上，比如轨道上的数据中心，根本没保证能成真。

So critics say that you are literally betting the house on futuristic projects like orbital data centers that have no guarantee of actually becoming a reality.

不过，很多人确实会从这里面赚到大钱。

Now a lot of people are gonna get rich from this.

这是历史上规模最大的一次IPO。

It's the biggest IPO in history.

而从中受益最大的一个人，当然是埃隆·马斯克，他目前持有太空探索技术公司约42%的普通股。

And one person who is going to get very rich from this is, of course, Elon Musk who owns about 42% of SpaceX common stock right now.

按当前股价135美元计算。

So at the current price, a $135 a share.

根据彭博亿万富豪指数，埃隆·马斯克的净资产大约是9700亿美元。

Elon Musk's net worth is worth according to Bloomberg's billionaires index about $970,000,000,000.

这数字实在太大了。

That that's a lot.

我刚才一带而过了。

I I just kinda skated it over.

我有个万亿富翁。

I have a trillionaire.

9700亿美元。

970,000,000,000.

如果SpaceX的股票在上市首日如预期般飙升，他将成为世界上首位万亿富翁。

If SpaceX shares pop on the first day as perhaps they are expected to, then he will become the first trillionaire the world has ever seen.

《华尔街日报》做了一篇挺有意思的文章，问：你知道万亿到底有多大吗？

And the Wall Street Journal did this interesting piece saying, do you even know what a trillion is?

一万亿就是一千个十亿。

It's a thousand billions.

人的脑子根本没法真正理解这个数字。

Your mind can't really comprehend it.

一百万秒前，才不过是两周前的事。

So a million seconds ago was two weeks ago.

明白吗？

Okay?

十亿秒前，那是1994年。

A billion seconds ago was 1994.

那时候我才三岁，《低俗小说》刚上映。

So I was three years old, Pulp Fiction was released.

我当时还没出生。

I was not alive.

一万亿秒前，那可是实实在在的冰河时代。

A trillion seconds ago was literally back in the ice age.

十亿和一万亿之间的差距实在太大了。

So the difference between a billion and a trillion is so much.

所以埃隆·马斯克可能会成为全球第一位万亿富翁，说不定伯尼·桑德斯得更新一下他那句‘百万富翁和亿万富翁’的说法了。

And so Elon Musk could be the first trillionaire and we've maybe Bernie Sanders is gonna need to update his millionaires and billionaires line.

不仅如此，很多早期的SpaceX员工也会变得非常富有。

Not only that, a lot of early SpaceX employees are also gonna get very rich.

预计有大约4400名现任或前任SpaceX员工通过这次IPO出售股票成为百万富翁，其中约400人能赚到一亿美元以上。

There are about 4,400 current and former SpaceX employees who are expected to become millionaires from this IPO as they sell their shares, and about 400 of them are expected to rake in $100,000,000 or more.

这太疯狂了。

It is insane.

还有一件事值得关注，就是指数提供商。

One other thing to look at is index providers.

所以纳斯达克赢得了这次上市机会。

So the Nasdaq won this listing.

很多不同的指数机构都在争着吸引SpaceX的业务。

A lot of different indexes were fighting over, you know, attracting SpaceX's business.

SpaceX选择纳斯达克的一个原因，可能是他们在上市前三个月修改了规则。

And one of the reasons why potentially SpaceX went with the Nasdaq is that they changed their rules three months before this went public.

通常情况下，新股得等三个月才能进入纳斯达克100指数。

IPOs typically had to wait three months before entering the Nasdaq 100.

但现在SpaceX上市仅15个交易日就能入选，大大缩短了进入指数的时间。

SpaceX can now enter after just fifteen trading days, so they dramatically reduced the amount of time it would take to be listed on the index.

这之所以重要，是因为那些指数基金——你投资组合里很可能就有——必须跟着指数买入股票。

And why this matters is index funds, you know, those index funds that you probably have in your portfolio somewhere, ETFs tracking benchmarks, they have to buy shares.

所以被动投资者就算没主动选，也得持有SpaceX的股票，大量被动资金就会因此流入这只股票。

So passive investors end up owning SpaceX whether they actively chose to or not, and that means a lot of passive money would flow into this stock.

根据彭博情报的数据，自动被动买入的需求可能高达200亿美元。

Nearly $20,000,000,000 of automatic passive buying demand could hit the stock according to Bloomberg Intelligence.

这里争议在于，纽约证券交易所的总裁直接指责纳斯达克修改规则，就是为了吸引SpaceX。

And the controversy here is that New York Stock Exchange president effectively accused, Nasdaq of tailoring the rules to attract SpaceX.

他说，政府的担忧都被无视了。

He says government concerns are being ignored.

指数机构为了迎合一家公司，正在自我调整。

Indexes are changing themselves to fit one company.

但另一方面，如果一家公司上市估值接近两万亿美元，几个月不纳入指数，同样说不通。

But, also, the argument is if a company does hit the public markets that's worth nearly $2,000,000,000,000, excluding it for months doesn't make any sense at all either.

所以另一个值得关注的点是，如果这波被动买入真的涌进来，会对这家公司的股价造成什么影响？

So that is one kind of b plot to look out for is if that wave of passive buying does hit the stock, what does that do to, you know, the the share price of the company?

是的。

Yeah.

不管你愿不愿意，你最终都会持有SpaceX的股票。

You're basically gonna own SpaceX whether you like it or not.

早上九点半钟声敲响时，股价是暴涨还是熄火，真值得一看。

It's gonna be fascinating to see what happens when the bell rings at 09:30AM, whether it pops or fizzles.

但我得先说清楚。

But I just wanna make it clear.

这还不是最终定论。

This is not the last word.

这也不是对SpaceX的最终评判。

This is not the last referendum on SpaceX.

不管今天发生什么，不管有多精彩。

Whatever happens today, as interesting as it's gonna be.

回想2012年，Facebook的IPO可是大翻车，上市头几周股价直接崩盘。

I mean, back in 2012, Facebook had a very famously floppy IPO, crashed and burned on its first couple weeks of trading.

当时到处都是问题，可现在它的市值已经高达好几万亿美元了。

Things were glitching everywhere and now it's worth, you know, a couple trillion dollars.

所以SpaceX未来几周、几个月、甚至几年会怎样，我们还得拭目以待。

So this is we'll have to see what happens in the weeks, months, years ahead for SpaceX.

但就眼下而言，这真是历史性的一天。

But for right now, a truly historic day.

真等不及早上九点半了。

Can't wait for 09:30.

这是本周股票和狗股时间，我们要挑一只抱怨夏天太热的股票，再挑一只熬过漫长寒冬后终于拥抱温暖的股票。

It's stock of the week, dog of week time where we pick one stock that is complaining about the summer heat and one stock that is embracing the warmth after a long cold winter.

我赢了开场前的小游戏，比谁穿五英寸短裤最帅，所以我先来。

I won the preshow game of who can rock five inch inseam shorts the best, so I'm up first.

既然我们之前花了大量时间吹捧SpaceX可能是下一代的明星股，那我这次换个思路，先说说我们的狗股——其实就是眼下市场上几乎所有其他股票。

And since we spent a lot of time talking up SpaceX as the potential stock of the generation, I'm gonna switch it up and start with our dog of the week, which is pretty much every other stock on the market right now.

你有没有见过，一个人一进房间，所有对话立刻都转向他？

You know when someone walks into a room and suddenly every conversation becomes about them?

这就是SpaceX上市带来的效应。

That's SpaceX's IPO.

散户们纷纷抛掉自己以前的最爱，腾出仓位来买SpaceX。

Retail investors are ditching their previous favorite names to make room for SpaceX.

这周散户连续三天卖出的个股数量超过了买入的，这是自2020年3月以来的第一次。

This week saw the retail crowd sell more individual stock than they bought for three straight days, The first time that's happened since March 2020.

现在消费者手头都很紧，没人真有闲钱搁着。

Given the tight consumer environment, no one really has much extra cash sitting around.

所以为了腾出资金，一些持仓只能被砍掉。

So to free up some dry powder, certain positions had to hit the chopping block.

本周初出现一波抛售，到周一结束时，散户从个股撤出的资金创下自2023年以来最大规模。

The start of the week saw a wave of selling that by Monday's end turned into the largest retail outflow from individual stocks since 2023.

这就像是安迪把伍迪扔一边的那个梗。

It's kinda like the Andy tossing aside a Woody meme.

人们现在抛售的那些股票，以前都是他们的心头好。

The stocks people are selling used to be their favorite toys.

像美光、博通、高通和AMD这些公司，过去六七个交易日里跌幅都在5%到15%之间。

Names like Micron, Broadcom, Qualcomm, and AMD, each are down between 515% over the past half dozen trading days.

担心的是，如果SpaceX太火，那些曾经的市场宠儿就得醒醒了，资金会继续从那些曾经让你投资组合变绿的股票里撤走。

The fear is if SpaceX does too well, then maybe some of these market darlings get a reality check and the capital keeps rotating away from names that up until this point have turned your portfolio green.

尼尔，SpaceX正大摇大摆地走进公开市场，把整个房间的空气都吸走了。

Neil, SpaceX is sauntering into the public markets and sucking up all the oxygen in the room.

我懂这种感觉。

I know the feeling.

但说实话，我们投资者没法像在《模拟人生》里那样，输入个‘玫瑰花蕾’就能无限刷钱。

But yeah, unfortunately, we investors can't just type in rose bud to our portfolios and get an infinite money glitch like you did in The Sims.

所以你得砍掉一些其他持仓，才能腾出资金来投资SpaceX——更别提还有Anthropic和OpenAI这两家大公司即将上市了。

So you have to trim some of your stakes elsewhere to make money or to acquire money that you can invest in SpaceX or not to mention there's two other huge IPOs coming down the line in Anthropic and OpenAI.

而受到投资者减持持仓、为SpaceX、Anthropic和OpenAI腾空间影响最严重的资产类别，就是比特币。

And one asset class that seems to be very hard hit by people trimming their portfolios to make to clear out some space for SpaceX and Anthropic and OpenAI is Bitcoin.

如果你最近没关注比特币，我也理解。

Now if you haven't been paying attention to Bitcoin, I don't blame you.

但它已经从今年十月的历史高点跌了50%。

But it is down 50% from its all time high back in October.

目前价格大概在六万三千美元左右。

Right now it's trading at about $63,000.

上周它又跌了15%。

Last week, it fell 15%.

这可能不是巧合，但自2022年11月FTX崩盘以来，这是最严重的一次。

Maybe that's not a coincidence, but that was the most since FTX imploded in November 2022.

所以比特币跌得很惨，其他科技股也一样，可能都是受SpaceX这个效应拖累。

So Bitcoin is in the dumps, another another tech stocks are in the dumps perhaps because of this SpaceX effect.

它的影响太大了，波及范围广，连不少科技公司和加密货币都被带下了水。

It's so big that its blast radius is taking down a bunch of tech companies and crypto.

我们看到这种影响扩散得这么广，还有一个原因：美国人现在持有的股票创了历史新高。

One other reason why we're seeing it radiate so widely is that Americans own a record amount of stock right now.

目前，股票占美国家庭金融资产的近35%。

Stocks now make up nearly 35% of US household financial assets.

这是有史以来的最高水平。

That is an all time high.

所以如果人们手里握着很多股票，就像你提到的，他们需要现金去买入新股票。

So if people own a lot of stocks, like you said, they need money to buy new stocks.

那就得先把现有的卖掉。

You gotta sell your existing one.

我们已经看到，随着人们卖出股票来套现，参与度开始小幅下降。

So we've already seen a little bit of that participation start to drop a little bit as people have sold to free up some cash.

今年第一季度，散户投资者在美国股市交易量中的占比仅为17%。

Retail investors were only 17% of US equity volume in the first quarter of this year.

这个数字比一年前的21%明显下滑了。

That is down nearly from 21% a year earlier.

所以，如果你仔细琢磨一下，这意味着人们正在调整持仓，为这些大型公司融资腾出空间。

So if you read between the lines, that means that people are, you know, moving some things around to free up some space for these bigger companies coming down.

不过，你也许会说，市场完全能承受得了。

Now I guess you could say that the market can absolutely take it.

SpaceX预计要融资750亿美元。

Again, SpaceX is expected to raise $75,000,000,000.

这是一笔巨额资金。

That is a ton of money.

但如果你回头看标普500指数公司过去一年的情况，它们每个月都在发行高达1400亿美元的新股票。

But if you go back to S and P 500 companies over the past year, they've been issuing a $140,000,000,000 per month of fresh equity.

每个月市场都能消化得了。

The market takes that every single month.

完全没问题。

No problem.

750亿美元听起来吓人，但其实算不上多大动静，毕竟一直有公司不断在发新股。

So $75,000,000,000 isn't something that is so large, even though it's crazy to say, that it is going to completely warp the market because a lot of companies are issuing stock all the time.

这个名字现在可火了。

Now this is a very buzzy name.

它会吸引大量关注、大量讨论，还有大量资金，但市场完全扛得住。

It is gonna suck up a lot of oxygen, lot of time that we're talking about, and a lot of money as well, but it's nothing that the market cannot take.

有意思的是，你本以为因为SpaceX上市会受冲击的行业，反而表现得很好——那就是航天产业。

What's fascinating is that an industry that you might expect to be going down because of the SpaceX IPO is actually doing well, and that is the space industry.

过去十二个月，航天类股票实际上涨势强劲。

Space stocks have actually been booming over the past twelve months.

AST Mobile的股价已经涨了150%。

AST Mobile is up 150%.

火箭实验室股价上涨了290%。

Rocket Lab is up 290%.

它们做的事儿和SpaceX一模一样，只是规模小得多，但就像你见过的其他行业那样，埃隆·马斯克和杰夫·贝佐斯入局，其实是一种认可。

These do the same exact things that SpaceX just on a much smaller scale, but perhaps like other industries you've seen like Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos come into, it's sort of a validation.

这给整个行业带来了光环效应，说明这事儿靠谱。

It creates a halo effect around the entire industry and says, yeah.

继续坚持下去。

Keep doing what you're doing.

我们是最大的玩家，但不会垄断这个领域。

We're the biggest play player, but we're not gonna have a monopoly on this space.

挺有意思的是，其他科技股因为SpaceX上市吃了点苦头，但整个航天板块的表现其实很不错。

So it's been very interesting to see other tech stocks kind of get get their lumps from SpaceX's IPO, but space stocks in general are doing pretty well.

好的。

Alright.

我们先休息一下，马上回来带来本周推荐股票。

We're gonna take a quick break and come back with our Stock a Week right after this.

托比，你知道吗？经济压力大的员工，工作时更容易分心。

Toby, did you know employees who are financially stressed are way more likely to be distracted while at work?

你说什么？

What was that?

不好意思。

Sorry.

我确实有点心不在焉。

I'm really distracted.

我这儿银行账户上有个扣款，有点不明白。

I've got some questions about this hit to my bank account here.

看吧。

See?

这种因分心导致的缺勤，每年给雇主造成的损失和生产力下滑可是相当可观的。

This missed work is estimated to cost employers big bucks annually and lost productivity.

所以Aflac才会快速、准确、公正地赔付理赔。

That's why Aflac pays claims fast, accurately, and fairly.

他们的计划能帮助员工更好地恢复，早日回到工作岗位。

Their plans can help employees focus on getting better and getting back to work.

想了解更多，请访问 aflac.com/morningbrewdaily。

To learn more, just head to aflac.com/morningbrewdaily.

网址是 aflac.com/morningbrewdaily。

That's aflac.com/morningbrewdaily.

这儿真冷啊。

It's freezing in here.

怎么回事？

What gives?

我这是在保持状态呢，尼尔。

I'm trying to preserve my freshness, Neil.

就像 iHerb 那样，他们的保健品和运动产品都存放在经过 GMP、ISO 和 NSF 认证的恒温仓库里，确保功效和品质不受影响。

Like how iHerb stores and handles their supplements and sports products in GMP, ISO and NSF certified climate controlled fulfillment centers designed to protect potency and product integrity.

这样你就不会拿到化掉的软糖维生素了。

That way you don't get melted gummy vitamins.

托比，这套办法只适用于保健品和运动产品，不适用于其他东西

Toby, that only works on supplements and sports products, not

iHerb 对每一笔购买都负责

And iHerb stands behind every purchase.

如果产品达不到你的期望，他们提供便捷的退货和简单的退款服务

If something doesn't meet your expectations, they make it right with easy returns and simple refunds.

访问 iherb.com/mbdaily，使用代码 m b daily 可享八折优惠

Head to iherb.com/mbdaily and use code m b daily for 20% off your purchase.

就是 iherb.com/mbdaily

That's iheb.com/mbdaily.

尼尔，感觉每周都有新的 AI 模型登上头条

Neil, it feels like every week there's a new AI model making headlines.

可我却得跟上每一个新动向

And somehow I'm expected to keep up with all of them.

说得对

Fair.

但MiniMax新推出的M3非常值得关注。

But MiniMax's new M three is one worth paying attention to.

他们的开源模型融合了顶尖的编程能力和AI代理功能，支持高达一百万令牌的上下文窗口，并原生支持多模态理解。

Their open weight model combines frontier level coding and AI agent capabilities, a massive 1,000,000 token context window, and native multi modal understanding.

各大平台都在跟进。

Platforms.

想了解更多并开始使用M3，欢迎访问minimax.io。

To learn more and start building with M3, visit minimax.io.

网址是minimax.io。

That's minimax.io.

我这周推荐的股票是体育博彩公司，因为世界杯即将到来，它们正迎来历史性的一个月。

My stock of the week are sports books, which are poised for a historic month thanks to the World Cup.

DraftKings本周上涨了12%，而FanDuel的母公司Flutter也上涨了8%，其首席执行官预测，世界杯昨天开幕后，在高峰期，公司每分钟可能接到十万笔投注。

DraftKings is up 12% this week and FanDuel parent, Flutter, has gained 8% after its CEO predicted that at peak times during the tournament, which started yesterday, the company expects to see 100,000 bets a minute.

博彩业高管们称，这届世界杯是历史上最大的投注机会，全球所有平台预计总投注额将达到五千亿美元。

Gambling execs have called this World Cup the biggest betting opportunity in history with $50,000,000,000 projected to be wagered across all platforms globally.

这比四年前上一届赛事的投注额增长了43%。

That'd be a 43% increase from the amount wagered in the previous event four years ago.

导致这一激增的主要原因是什么？

The main reason for this spike?

其实很简单。

Pretty simple.

可供下注的比赛变多了。

More games to bet on.

本届世界杯参赛队伍从32支扩军到48支，赛程里多出了40场比赛，你朋友可以赌角球总数超数了。

For this edition, the World Cup expanded its field from 32 to 48 teams, meaning there are an additional 40 games on the schedule for your friend to take the over on corners.

还有其他一些有利因素可能推动博彩业增长。

There are a couple of other tailwinds that could boost gambling.

这次，美国大部分地区都已合法化体育博彩，因为越来越多的州通过了相关法案。

For the first time, the majority of Americans can place legal bets after more states approved it.

目前有65%的美国人可以合法投注体育赛事，而2022年这个比例只有40%。

65% of the population can now gamble on sports compared to 40% in 2022.

而且比赛在北美举行，时区对这里和欧洲的投注者来说都很方便。

Plus, with the games taking place in North America, the time zones are favorable for a betting deluge here and in Europe.

托比，这对一个正面临多方压力的行业来说，真是及时的助力。

Toby, it's a much needed lift for an industry that's being squeezed on all sides.

不只是能投注的人多了、时间也更合适，关键是可供投注的选项也多了不少。

It's not just that more people can bet and that the times are more favorable, it's that there's just more bets out there that you can wager on.

凯撒娱乐表示，这次世界杯提供的投注选项是2022年世界杯的十倍。

So Caesars says it's offering 10 times more betting options for this World Cup than it did in the twenty twenty two World Cup.

你可以玩同一场比赛的串关投注。

You can do same game parlays.

现在也能实时下注了。

You can do live betting now.

还有专门针对足球的特殊投注项目。

You can do soccer specific prop bets.

种类多得数不清。

The list goes on.

所以这也是为什么会有更多资金涌入的原因之一。

So that's one of the reasons why it's gonna attract more money.

可供选择的投注方式变多了。

There's more options for it.

而且现在预测市场也加入进来了。

And then also you got prediction markets joining the party as well.

有19%的投注者表示他们打算使用预测市场。

19% of better said that they plan to use prediction markets.

这个比例已经非常接近传统博彩公司29%的水平。

That is very close to traditional sportsbooks at 29%.

Calicy也提供了500多个与世界杯相关的投注市场。

Calicy has over 500 World Cup related markets as well.

不只是博彩公司，预测市场也掺和进来了。

So not even just gambling companies, throw in prediction markets as well.

这次世界杯的投注方式真是多得数不清。

There are so many different ways to bet on this World Cup.

是的

Yeah.

世界杯决赛在预测市场上的投注额，已经迅速成为这些公司历史上规模最大的单一市场。

The the World Cup final winner on prediction markets is already on its way to becoming the biggest market in these companies history.

我今天早上刚查过。

I I just checked this morning.

Polymarket 上关于世界杯决赛的投注总额已经超过二十亿美元，不管你怎么称呼它。

Polymarket had over $2,000,000,000 worth of wagers or whatever you wanna call it for Polymarket on that World Cup final.

而且现在距离比赛还有五周时间。

So and this we're five weeks out.

这数字只会继续涨，涨到几十亿甚至更多。

Like this is only gonna grow to even more more billions.

很明显，很多人都在涌向预测市场，下注世界杯决赛。

So prediction markets people are definitely flocking to prediction markets to place their wagers.

想想世界杯的规模，还有这么多人下注，真是让人难以置信。

But it's just crazy to think of the scale of the World Cup and how much people are wagering on this.

所以我查了超级碗的数据。

So I looked at the Super Bowl.

那在美国合法的体育博彩平台上，超级碗的投注总额是多少呢？

So how many how much was legally wagered on the Super Bowl across regulated US sports books?

17.6亿美元。

1,760,000,000.

他们预计

And they're expecting

我还以为你要考我，让我猜一猜呢。

I thought you're gonna quiz me and I was gonna guess

不是。

No.

我直接告诉你答案吧，你肯定猜不到。

I'm gonna say the answer because I don't think you would have gotten it.

超级碗是17.6亿美元，而世界杯的投注额高达500亿美元。

1,760,000,000 compared to 50,000,000,000 for the World Cup.

2022年卡塔尔世界杯决赛，有15亿人收看了比赛。

The World Cup final in Qatar in 2022, 1,500,000,000 people watched the final.

整个世界杯赛事，总共有50亿人观看。

5,000,000,000 people watched the whole competition.

15亿人相当于全球人口的五分之一。

1,500,000,000 people is one fifth of the entire global population.

不管你觉得超级碗有多大的规模，2亿人观看已经算很了不起了。

So everything however big 200,000,000 people watch the Super Bowl.

不管你心里觉得超级碗有多火爆，世界杯的影响力、关注度、合法投注金额，都完全不是一个量级。

So however big you think the Super Bowl is, I mean, the World Cup is just so much bigger with more attention, more legal wagering, this money is gonna be bet on.

这是美丽的运动，尼尔。

It's the beautiful game, Neil.

这是全世界的运动。

It's the world's game.

它比美式足球大太多了。

It's way bigger than football.

这才是真正的足球。

It's the real football.

我赌得最多也就五十美元。

I think I'm maxing out my betting that just like $50.

就一个彩池，已经太多了。

Just one pool, it's too much.

确实太多了。

Too much.

而且很多负责监管博彩的非营利组织说，这会让更多人沉迷赌博，而我们已经清楚记录了赌博对社会造成的各种危害。

And also a lot of, you know, wagering oversight nonprofits are saying this is gonna get so many more people hooked on on gambling and we've already documented all of the ills of that to society.

但不管怎样，人们还是会去赌。

But either way, people are gonna do it.

毕竟这是世界上规模最大的赛事。

It's just the biggest competition in the world.

在威尼斯结婚、在游艇上狂欢、资助了大都会艺术博物馆慈善晚宴之后，杰夫·贝佐斯又回到了创始人模式。

After getting married in Venice, partying on his yacht, and bankrolling the Met Gala, Jeff Bezos is back in founder mode.

昨天，他正式公布了新公司Prometheus，这是他2021年离开亚马逊后首次坐上首席执行官的位置。

Yesterday, he lifted the curtain on his new company, Prometheus, the first time Bezos has occupied the CEO chair after leaving Amazon in 2021.

你绝对猜不到Prometheus是做什么生意的。

And you're never gonna guess what business Prometheus is in.

好吧。

Okay.

也许你能猜到。

Maybe you will.

人工智能。

AI.

但他说的AI，可不是我们平时在互联网上见到的那种聊天机器人或智能助手，能随时响应我们的需求。

But it's not just AI the way we're accustomed to with chatbots and agents responding to our every desire on the Internet.

贝索斯在打造所谓的物理AI，把人工智能模型应用到现实世界中，彻底改变制造业和工业生产。

Bezos is building so called physical AI, applying artificial intelligence models to the real world in order to transform manufacturing and industry.

当OpenAI和Anthropic在追求通用人工智能时，贝索斯想打造的是他所说的‘通用工程AI’，让生产线拥有超人的效率。

Whereas OpenAI and Anthropic are aiming to build artificial general intelligence, Bezos wants to build what he calls an artificial general engineer to supercharge production lines with superhuman level efficiency.

为了帮他实现目标，贝索斯请来了联合首席执行官维克·巴贾，他之前在谷歌X部门负责前沿创新项目。

To help him get there, Bezos has enlisted a co CEO, Veik Bajaj, a former executive working on moonshots at Google x.

贝索斯和巴贾表示，他们已经筹集了120亿美元，公司估值达到410亿美元，投资方包括贝索斯本人、摩根大通、黑石和高盛。

Together, Bezos and Bajaj say they've raised $12,000,000,000 at a $41,000,000,000 valuation with investors including Bezos himself, JP Morgan, BlackRock, and Goldman Sachs.

他们已经在全球招聘了150名员工，正从低调运作转向公开竞争，准备挑战那些希望推动机器人革命的对手。

They've already hired 150 employees around the world as they move out of stealth and get ready to compete with a number of rivals hoping to usher in a robotics revolution.

贝索斯说，他们的使命是让创新速度大大加快，让团队能做出更大胆的项目。

Bezos says the mission is to make invention way faster so teams can quote, do much bigger things.

他还举了个例子，比如设计一款喷气发动机。

And he gave an example of designing a jet engine.

他说，设计和制造一款新型喷气发动机通常需要大约十年时间。

He says it can take roughly ten years to design and manufacture a new jet engine.

如果你想给它增加10%的推力，可能又要拖上十年，因为工程领域的任何改动都太慢了，而他认为普罗米修斯能大幅缩短这个周期。

If you wanted to add 10% of thrust to it, that can stretch out over a decade because it just takes so long to do anything in engineering, and he thinks that Probetheus can significantly compress that timeline.

但他的联合创始人巴贾说，设计喷气发动机依然需要上千名工程师协同创新，可这些年来，工具却几乎没有进步。

But Jaj, his cofounder, said designing a jet engine still requires a thousand human minds creatively working together, and yet the tools haven't much changed over the past couple of years or so.