特斯拉新款Roadster能飞行，麦肯锡正用AI虚拟形象面试候选人

你是不是因为要跟上AI及其影响而感到喘不过气来？

Are you sucking wind from trying to keep up with AI and its impact?

先歇口气，来听听《智能转变》吧，这是Morning Brew和普华永道合作的新播客。

Take a breather and tune in to The Intelligence Shift, Morning Brew's new podcast with PwC.

它把AI的大概念和实际应用之间的差距连接了起来。

It bridges the gap between big picture AI concepts and what it actually means in practice.

主持人丹·普里斯特会邀请专家嘉宾，一起讨论AI在体育、音乐、人力资源等领域的角色。

Host Dan Priest is joined by expert guests to discuss AI's role in sports, music, HR, and more.

无论你在哪里收听播客，都可以找到《智能转变》来听。

Listen to the Intelligent Shift wherever you get your podcasts.

早上好，这里是《每日秀》。

Good morning for Daily Show.

我是尼尔·弗莱曼。

I'm Neil Fryman.

我是托比·豪厄尔。

And I'm Toby Howell.

今天，特斯拉发布了一款飞行汽车。

Today, Tesla revealed a flying car.

本，麦肯锡认为筛选候选人的最佳方式是让他们和AI对话。

Ben, McKinsey thinks the best way to screen candidates is to make them talk to AI.

今天是10月16日，星期五。

It's Friday, October 16.

我们开始吧。

Let's ride.

我打算录完节目后，马上去买一张《你能看到一切》的电影票，这是内森·菲尔德拍的关于伊丽莎白·霍姆斯的纪录片，今天在影院上映。

My plan right after we finish recording the show is to buy a ticket to You Can See Everything, Nathan Fielder's documentary about Elizabeth Holmes that's being released in theaters today.

祝我好运吧。

Wish me luck.

这部电影虽然将近三个小时，但看起来城里每家影院都几乎满座了。

This movie, despite being nearly three hours long, looks pretty booked up at every theater in the city.

这也不奇怪，霍姆斯创立了血液检测初创公司Theranos，后来公司彻底垮了，但她对美国文化的吸引力却很少有其他骗子能比得上。

Not that it's surprising, Holmes, who founded the blood testing startup Theranos before it crashed and burned, has maintained her grip on American culture like few other fraudsters.

而菲尔德可能是唯一能和她那种尴尬又神秘的气质相匹敌的现役喜剧演员了。

And Fielder might be the only working comedian who can match her awkwardness and mystique.

托比，这部电影在烂番茄上获得了100%的好评率，我觉得这很不错。

Toby, the movie has a 100% rating on Rotten Tomatoes, which I think is good.

每一篇评论都赞不绝口。

Every review is rapturous.

你肯定能猜到，这部电影会非常精彩，而且非常离奇。

You have to assume it's going to be excellent and very bizarre.

这是那种你那些电影迷同事（包括我在内）会一直讨论的电影之一。

This is one of those movies that your cinephile coworkers, included, won't stop talking about.

所以我可能得去看一下，这样我才能参与讨论。

So I might have to go see it just so I can participate in the discourse.

我听到了一些关于电影内容的传闻，但显然，在Hulu的纪录片剧集中扮演霍姆斯的阿曼达·塞弗里德，在这部电影里也扮演了重要角色。

I have seen some rumors about what will go down, but apparently, Amanda Seyfried, who plays Holmes in a Hulu docuseries, also plays a big role in this movie.

而且霍姆斯可能还不是这部纪录片里最有趣的角色。

And Holmes might not even be the most interesting character in the documentary.

她的搭档比利·埃文斯，从我看到的片段来看，有些场景真是让人目瞪口呆。

Billy Evans, her partner, has some jaw dropping scenes from what I've seen.

我只知道，到了万圣节的时候，肯定会有很多人扮成伊丽莎白·霍姆斯的样子。

All I know is there's gonna be a of Elizabeth Holmes costumes come Halloween time.

她确实又回到了大众视野里。

She's back in the zeitgeist for sure.

接下来是我们的赞助商Intuit的广告时间。

And now a word from our sponsor Intuit.

托比，我们来玩个小游戏，你宁愿选哪个？

Toby, let's play a little game of would you rather?

好的。

Okay.

你宁愿面对复杂还是简单？

Would you rather deal with complexity or simplicity?

哦，天哪。

Oh, man.

这还真难选。

That's such a toss-up.

简单确实简单，但复杂嘛，处理起来可真够呛。

Simplicity is so simple, but complexity, man, is that a lot to deal with?

我渴望简单。

I'm craving simplicity.

首席财务官和财务团队也一样，他们为了结一个月的账，得登录四个系统，在电子表格里重建每份报告，还要为那些被告知不需要的附加功能付费。

Same as the CFOs and finance teams stuck logging into four systems to close one month, rebuilding every report in a spreadsheet and paying for add ons they were told they wouldn't need.

幸好有Intuit ERP来解决这个问题。

Well, thankfully there's the Intuit ERP for that.

不管你有多少实体，你的团队都能一次性完成结账。

Your team runs one close, however many entities you have.

他们可以自己构建报告，不需要顾问。

They build their own reports, no consultant required.

而且上手不会占用你一整年时间，还没有传统ERP的负担。

And getting started doesn't take over your year, all without the legacy ERP baggage.

想了解更多，请访问intuit.com/erp。

To learn more, head to intuit.com/erp.

网址是intuit.com/erp。

That's intuit.com/erp.

为了给老旧的车型阵容增添一些新鲜感，特斯拉发布了一款飞行汽车。

In order to add some freshness to a stale vehicle lineup, Tesla unveiled a flying car.

没错，就是字面意义上的飞行汽车。

Literally.

在昨晚得克萨斯州的一场活动上，CEO埃隆·马斯克展示了新一代Roadster，表演了通常你不会期待汽车能完成的空中特技。

At an event in Texas last night, CEO Elon Musk showcased the next generation Roadster, performed aerial feats you wouldn't typically expect of an automobile.

这一举动让人联想到西蒙·拜尔斯的跳马动作，它冲上陡坡，然后翻转、旋转，最后稳稳落地。

In a move reminiscent of a Simone Biles vault, it climbed up a steep ramp before flipping and twisting for a controlled landing on the ground.

接着，它飞越了特斯拉现有车型阵容中的多辆汽车。

Then it flew over multiple cars in Tesla's existing vehicle lineup.

另一个特技展示了当Roadster在地面上时，它能跑得有多快。

Another stunt showed how when it's on the ground, the Roadster can go pretty dang fast.

特斯拉展示了一段视频，显示这款双座车从零加速到每小时60英里不到一秒。

Tesla showed a video of the two seater going from zero to 60 miles per hour in less than one second.

新款Roadster是早在2017年就承诺的车型，但多次延期，发布推迟了近十年。

The new Roadster was the prince that was promised way back in 2017, but numerous delays have pushed the release to nearly a decade later.

从很多方面来看，这款跑车是对特斯拉早期岁月的致敬。

In many ways, the sports car is a nod to the early days at Tesla.

2008年推出的初代Roadster是公司的第一款产品。

The OG Roadster launched in 2008 was the company's first ever product.

在特斯拉全力推进自动驾驶的当下，新款Roadster强调人工驾驶，这看起来有点复古。

And at a time when Tesla is full steam ahead on autonomy, the new Roadster emphasizes human driving, which seems so quaint.

马斯克表示，Roadster最终将是特斯拉唯一一款手动驾驶的车型。

Musk said the Roadster would ultimately be the only manually driven car that Tesla makes.

马斯克自己也承认，Roadster更多是为了提升品牌形象，而不是为了大幅增加利润。

By Musk's own admission, the Roadster is more an attempt at what your marketing friends call brand lift rather than something that will materially contribute to the bottom line.

这款车传闻售价超过25万美元，目标市场不大，特斯拉也不会大规模生产。

The addressable market for the car, which is rumored to cost more than $250,000, is not big, and Tesla won't make it in significant quantities.

不过，随着特斯拉转向机器人和人工智能的未来，它想提醒你，它仍然在制造技术令人惊叹的汽车，这些汽车仍然占其收入和利润的大部分。

However, as Tesla pivots toward a robotics and AI future, it wants to remind you it still makes cars with mind blowing tech, cars that still account for the majority of its revenue and profits.

托比，开着Roadster去兜风，我该说兜风还是飞一把？

Toby, taking the Roadster out for a joy ride, should I say joy flight?

好的。

Okay.

两件事可以同时成立。

Two things can be true.

这是我见过的最超现实的科技展示之一。

This was one of the more surreal displays of technology that I have ever seen.

它做了一个后空翻。

It did a kickflip.

那辆车做了一个后空翻。

The car did a kickflip.

它像蝙蝠一样倒挂着。

It hung upside down like a bat.

这些动作你平时在房间里拿风火轮玩具车玩玩的，可不是真车该干的事。

This is stuff you do in your room with Hot Wheels, not with a real car.

不过说到底，这也就是个表演特技。

And yet it was a stunt at the end of the day.

这种东西根本没有什么大众市场。

There is not a mass market for these things.

就算没有推进器、火箭和飞行功能，光是在现在的市场上卖一辆昂贵的电动车，就已经够他们头疼的了。

Even if there weren't thrusters and rockets and flying capabilities, they're fighting an uphill battle just to sell an expensive EV in today's market.

所以这就让人不禁要问，为什么要这么做？

So it does beg the question, why do this?

为什么又要重新推出Roadster？

Why launch the Roadster again?

为什么终于要把它推向市场？

Why finally bring it to market?

我觉得马斯克和特斯拉就是想给品牌罩上一层未来感的光环，尤其是现在中国电动车正火得不行。

And I think Elon and Tesla are incentivized to have this futuristic halo around their brand, especially as Chinese EVs are all the rage right now.

也许它想重新证明自己依然是推动这项技术前沿的公司，而没有什么比飞行汽车更未来主义的了。

Maybe it wanted to reassert itself as the company that still pushes the forefront of this technology, and there's nothing more futuristic than a flying car.

所以，是的，我确实被震撼到了。

So, yes, I was blown away.

很多观看的人也被震撼到了，这正是特斯拉想要的效果。

A lot of people watching were blown away, which is exactly what Tesla was going for.

这也可能为特斯拉和SpaceX的潜在合并铺路，因为这辆车是特斯拉和SpaceX工程师合作的成果。

It also might set the stage for a potential Tesla merger with SpaceX because this car was a collaboration between Tesla and SpaceX engineers.

他们用这种先进的超高压空气装置来抬起汽车。

They use this advanced ultra high pressure air take to lift the car.

埃隆经常谈论特斯拉和SpaceX之间的协同效应。

And Elon has talked a lot about the synergies between Tesla and SpaceX.

我们知道他喜欢把自己业务的不同领域整合在一起。

We know he loves bringing various areas of his businesses together.

所以他也暗示过这次合并。

And so he's teased this merger.

投资者也一直在期待特斯拉和SpaceX的合并。

Investors have also been expecting the merger between Tesla and SpaceX.

这也是为什么SpaceX的股票在市场上表现这么好，因为大家觉得它最终肯定会和特斯拉合并。

It's one reason why you've seen SpaceX stock do so well on the market is because they think there's this expectation that it will definitely eventually merge with Tesla.

所以这也在展示如何把火箭工程和汽车结合起来，因为两者最终可能会合并，而且看起来很有可能，去描绘一个更加以AI和机器人为基础的未来。

So this is also a showcase for how you put rocket engineering and cars together as both of them may eventually come together, which is looking likely to chart this future that is way more AI and robotics based.

很多人说这根本不是一辆车。

A lot of people said that this is not a car.

这其实可能只是为火星或月球上的低重力着陆车做测试，因为埃隆做的每件事最终都会回到太空。

This is actually just a testing ground for maybe a low gravity landing vehicle on Mars or the moon because everything Elon does eventually ladders back up to space.

而且，是的，我们确实看到合并的几率飙升了。

And, yeah, we did see the odds of the merger shoot up.

我很好奇，如果你是差不多十年前就付了定金的人，你对现在出来的东西满意吗？

I'm curious if you are a person who put down a deposit back in, you know, almost a decade ago at this point, are you happy with what came out?

因为Roadster以前是那种非常圆润的。

Because the the Roadster used to be this very curvaceous.

它看起来像莲花跑车。

It looked like a Lotus.

它是一款真正的跑车。

It was a true sports car.

现在它几乎被赛博皮卡化了。

Now it's almost been cyber truckified.

它……

It's...

棱角更加分明了。

The angles are a lot sharper.

显然，现在它能飞了。

Obviously, it flies now.

所以，有意思的是，一些新闻媒体采访了那些几十年前就下注的人，他们的看法挺分裂的。

So, it was interesting to hear some news outlets talk to some of those people who put down a strategy so many decades ago, and it was kinda split.

有些人说，绝对支持。

Some people are saying, like, absolutely.

我觉得这会是史上最令人惊叹的东西之一。

I expect it to be most impressive things ever.

这太棒了。

This is awesome.

我都等不及要买一辆了。

I can't wait to get one.

而另一些人则说，绝对不想要了。

And other people are, like, absolutely don't want it anymore.

他们在这里已经耗尽了所有的信任。

They've burned all the trust here.

他们推出的任何东西都无法弥补让我等了这么久的事实。

Anything that they roll out cannot make up for the fact that they kept me waiting so long.

所以，如果你已经付了定金，你对这个感到兴奋吗？

So if you had put a deposit down, are you pumped for this?

我想谈谈定金的事，因为那是整个Roadster旅程传说的一部分。

I wanna talk about the the deposits because that's part of the lore of this whole Roadster journey.

早在2017年，特斯拉就要求支付5万美元的定金来预订Roadster，有时在某些情况下，限量版创始人系列车型的定金高达25万美元。

Back in 2017, Tesla asked for deposits of $50,000 to reserve the Roadster, or sometimes, in some cases, $250,000 deposit for this limited edition Founder Series model.

他们已经等了九年，而且还要等更久，因为这车……

They've been waiting nine years, and they're gonna be waiting even longer because this thing is...

要到2028年才会投产，价格也还没公布。

Will not go into production until 2028 at an undisclosed price.

如果你把那5万美元的定金不是用来订Roadster，而是买了特斯拉的股票，你就能赚到85万到90万美元。

If you put that 50,000 deposit instead of toward the Roadster into Tesla stock, you would have made between 850 and $900,000.

所以这对你来说是一笔相当糟糕的投资。

So this was a pretty bad investment on your part.

对特斯拉来说，这太棒了，因为他们只是得到了一些……

For Tesla, it was great because they just got some...

一笔总额达数千万美元的无息贷款。

A bunch of interest free loans in the in the sum of tens of millions of dollars.

这就是这款Roadster臭名昭著的旅程的一部分，它最早是在2017年首次公布或预告的。

So that's part of the infamous journey of this Roadster that was first announced or first teased in 2017.

现在它能飞了，而且至少还要再等两年才能上市。

Now it can fly, and it's not coming at least for another two years.

我们继续下一个话题。

Let's move on.

这周X上有个视频特别火，一家公司用AI面试官去面试一个真人候选人。

There's this viral video floating around X this week where a company sends an AI recruiter to interview a potential human candidate.

然后那个真人候选人用了一个自己的AI化身来应对，接着他站起来走开了，让两个看起来像人、说话也像人的AI在Zoom上聊天。

So the human counters with an AI Avatar of his own, and then he leaves, gets up, and walks off to let the two human looking and sounding AI sit on a Zoom call and chat.

一开始还挺顺利的，它们还约好了下次面试的时间，但后来就乱套了。

After getting off to a promising start where they manage to schedule a date for the next interview, things go haywire.

两个AI都出了故障，开始无限循环地互相说再见，停不下来。

They both glitch and get caught saying goodbye to each other in an infinite endless loop.

这场景太诡异了，简直就像《黑镜》里的情节，而且对现在找工作的候选人来说，感觉特别真实，让人心里发毛。

It's uncanny, straight out of black mirror, and hits all too close to home for candidates in the job market today.

尽管AI来面试你有点反乌托邦，但公司们并没有因此回避这项技术。

Despite some of the dystopia of an AI conducting your interview, companies are not shying away from the technology.

麦肯锡是最新一家在候选人筛选流程中引入AI虚拟形象的大公司。

McKinsey is the latest big name to bring AI Avatars into their candidate screening process.

候选人要参加模拟面试，必须和一个假的AI客户进行十分钟的对话，这个AI客户被设计成模拟真实的咨询电话。

Candidates are being put through simulations where they have to hold ten minute conversations with a fake AI client designed to mimic a real consulting call.

人类面试官会观看并评估他们的表现。

Human interviewers watch and evaluate their performance.

麦肯锡表示，这个实验测试的是候选人是否适应能力强、能否随机应变，但人类对此并不那么热衷。

McKinsey says the experiment tests whether a candidate is adaptable and can think on their feet, but humans aren't as gung ho.

查尔斯·惠特利，一位22岁的应届计算机科学毕业生，在找工作时已经完成了两次AI面试。

Charles Whitley, a 22 year old recent computer science grad, has completed two AI interviews while looking for a job.

尽管面试官试图通过加入“嗯”和“啊”这样的填充词来让声音听起来更自然，但他形容这次经历是“恐怖电影里的情节”，非常没有人情味。

And despite his interviewers attempting to sound more natural by inserting fillers like ums and uhs, he described the experience as some horror movie type stuff and very dehumanizing.

但公司不太可能很快放慢脚步，因为AI让他们能面试更多的候选人，为了效率牺牲一点人情味。

But companies aren't likely to slow down anytime soon since AI allows them to interview significantly more candidates sacrificing a touch of humanity for the sake of efficiency.

如果你为了找工作参加Zoom面试，发现对面是一个假人盯着你，你会有什么反应？

You know, what's your reaction if you hop on a Zoom call for a job and there's a fake person staring back at you?

我肯定能搞定。

I'd absolutely nail it.

我知道怎么讨好那些机器人。

I know how to charm the bots.

给我一个AI面试官吧。

Give me give me an AI interviewer.

但我完全理解为什么会有这么多反对声音，这已经成了社交媒体上很火的一种内容。

But I I totally understand how there's so much backlash to this, and it's become a very popular genre on social media.

有些人录下自己戏弄或恶搞AI面试官的视频，火得一塌糊涂。

Some of these videos of people videoing themselves messing or trolling AI interviewers go bonkers viral.

那个哥们儿发的一些视频里，他对着面试官胡说八道。

Some of the videos that the guy mentioned has put out, he talks gibberish to some interviewers.

对方也跟着胡说八道。

They respond with gibberish.

这些视频能有两百万的播放量。

These rack up about 2,000,000 views.

所以这已经变成一种很流行的做法，因为大家真的非常讨厌这个。

So it's a very popular thing to do, and that's because people just absolutely hate this.

而且这正在成为一种越来越普遍的现象。

And and it is a growing phenomenon.

招聘平台Greenhouse的一项调查显示，大约三分之二的美国求职者经历过AI面试，但他们对此感到非常不适。

About two thirds of US job seekers in a survey by the hiring platform Greenhouse said they've had an AI interview, but they just got the ick.

这些求职者中，将近四成在遇到AI面试后就退出了招聘流程，因为首先，这体验确实很怪。

Almost four in ten of those job seekers have withdrawn from a hiring process once they got an AI interview because, first of all, it's just a weird experience.

其次，这也可能反映出公司的价值观——他们用AI面试官来应付你，而不是真人。

And second of all, it might speak to the company's values that they're throwing an AI interviewer at you instead of a human.

这对你未来的职业前景意味着什么？当他们找到人来……

What does that mean for your future job prospects when they find someone to...

或者最终找到机器人来取代你的工作时？

Or find a bot to automate your job ultimately?

那为什么麦肯锡还要走这条路，尽管有这么多负面舆论？

So why is McKinsey going down this path if there is such negative PR around it?

他们认为这实际上能更好地筛选候选人。

They think that it can actually screen candidates better.

这是他们这么做的唯一原因。

That's the only reason why they would do it.

他们认为传统面试实际上更青睐那些擅长背答案的候选人。

They think that traditional interviews actually reward candidates who are very good at rehearsing answers.

有些人对着镜子练习，能迷住人类面试官，但如果换成AI，逼着他们临场发挥，脱离预先准备好的答案，这反而可能比人类更能看出他们想要候选人具备的素质。

Someone who looks in the mirror and can charm a human interviewer versus if you have an AI that makes them think on their feet, that makes them get off their prerecorded answers, that actually might illuminate, the values that they want in a candidate better than a human can.

还有一种说法是，人类面试官可能比AI面试官更有偏见，因为人类天生就有基于自身经历的偏见。

There's also the argument that maybe human interviewers have more bias than an AI interviewer because humans inherently have biases based off their lived experiences.

如果把AI放在同样的情境下，也许它不会表现出同样的偏见。

If you put an AI into the same situation, maybe they won't exhibit the same thing.

不过也有人反驳说，这些模型本身也带有固有的偏见，所以你不一定希望机器来做那样的判断。

Although the pushback there is these models also have inherent biases in in them as well, so you don't necessarily want that machine making a a judgment call like that.

所以这个问题有两面性。

So there is two sides to this argument.

我觉得吧……

I think it's...

他们认为这很浪费时间。

They think it's a time suck.

他们给麦肯锡那些顾问付多少钱啊？

I mean, how much are they paying these consultants at McKinsey?

那可是一大笔钱。

It's so much money.

他们不想花时间面试别人。

They don't wanna spend their time interviewing people.

我们自己也会做面试。

You know, we conduct interviews too.

这感觉有点像苦差事，因为这样一来你就没法做自己的本职工作了，所以他们想推出这些AI面试，好说……

It feels like a bit of a chore that said that you're not doing your actual job, so they want to trot out these AI interviews to say...

他们不想让麦肯锡的员工去做这些面试，因为那会花他们很多钱。

You know, they don't want McKinsey employees doing these interviews because it just costs them a lot of money.

而且我们还看到，求职申请的数量激增，因为另一方面，求职者也在用AI大量投递申请。

And we're also seeing just job applications, the number of job applications surge because on the other side of the end, job seekers are also using AI to flood the market with applications.

领英的一项调查显示，三分之二的招聘人员表示，过去一年找到合格人才变得更难了。

Two in three recruiters said it's gotten harder to find qualified talent over the last year in a LinkedIn survey.

自2022年以来，美国每个职位空缺的申请人数翻了一番。

The number of US applicants per opening, per job opening, has doubled since 2022.

所以他们想尽办法筛选简历，找出最优秀的候选人，而不是手动筛选，因为那样太耗时了。

So they are finding any way they can sift their resumes to surface the best candidates and not do it manually because that just takes way too much time.

而且你付给员工的工资太高了，不适合做这种工作。

And you're paying you're paying people way too much to to do this particular job.

现在是本周股票和本周差股的时间，这个环节我们会分享一只避开南瓜香料风的股票，和一只拥抱节日趣味的股票。

It's stock of the week, dog of the week time, the segment where we share one stock who's shunning pumpkin spice year and one stock who's leaning into holiday whimsy.

我在节目前的游戏里赢了，比谁在个人Instagram上发帖多，所以我先来。

I won the preshow game of who can post more on their personal Instagram account, so I'm up first.

我选的本周股票是AI可穿戴设备，因为突然之间每家公司都推出了这样的产品。

And my stock of the week is AI wearables because suddenly every company has one.

亚马逊是最新进入这个领域的公司，这周推出了两款来自Bee的新穿戴设备，Bee是它去年收购的一家初创公司。

Amazon is the latest to push into the category launching two new wearables from Bee this week, the startup it acquired last year.

Bee Frontier是一款75美元的腕带，可以记录并转写你的对话，而Bee Eclipse售价100美元，可以贴在智能手机背面。

The Bee Frontier is a $75 wristband that records and transcribes your conversations while the Bee Eclipse is $100 and attaches to the back of your smartphone.

这两款设备类似于你在Zoom会议中常见的那些记录工具，只不过现在它们会在你一天的真实生活中也一直听着。

Both devices are similar to the note takers that loom large in your Zoom meetings, except now they're listening throughout your day during real life too.

显然，如果有人戴着带录音功能的设备出现在社交场合，肯定会引发一些隐私方面的争议，而亚马逊的做法是加入一个指示灯，并让Bee用户自己手动开启录音。

Obviously, if someone rolls up to the function with a recording device on their wrist, there is bound to be some privacy pushback, and Amazon's approach is to include an indicator light and make Bee users toggle on the recording themselves.

Bee也只会把实际音频保留足够长的时间来生成摘要和洞察，然后就会删除。

Bee also only holds the actual audio long enough to create summaries and insights before deleting.

亚马逊并不是唯一一家在探索AI硬件的公司。

Amazon is not the only one exploring AI hardware.

苹果即将推出的手表有一个聆听功能，也会总结你每天的对话。

Apple's upcoming Watch has a listening function that will also summarize your daily conversations.

该公司刚刚推出了HomeView 2，这是另一款AI驱动的设备，可以帮助你管理家庭。

The company just launched HomeView two, another AI powered device that can help you manage your home.

别忘了Meta，这个品类基本上就是他们用AI眼镜系列开创的。

Don't forget about Meta, which practically invented the category with its line of AI enabled glasses.

尼尔，进入假期季了，看起来每家科技公司都在布局自己的AI可穿戴设备战略。

Neil, as we enter the holiday period, it looks every single tech company is lining up their AI wearable strategy.

他们这是在试水这个市场，为将来可能更雄心勃勃的设备发布打基础。

This is them trying to dip a toe into this market, lay the groundwork for what may be more ambitious device launches down in the future.

我们其实不太清楚AI设备的需求到底有多大。

We don't really know demand for AI gadgets.

Meta的眼镜卖得还不错，但这是一个全新的品类，这种全天候佩戴、帮你记录回忆的设备。

Meta Meta's glasses have sold pretty well, but there's this whole new category that's being invented, is this always on device that just keeps your memories.

听起来就像《黑镜》里的情节，但这些公司就是这么承诺的。

It sounds straight out of Black Mirror, but that's what these companies are promising.

我们真的不知道大家会怎么反应。

We really don't know how people will respond to this.

所以这是第一个圣诞节，这是圣诞老人第一次被要求送……

So this this is the first Christmas, this is the first time Santa will be asked for...

给你这些AI小工具，帮你记住回忆，我们看看2027年他会不会被问到。

To to give you these AI gadgets to help you remember your memories, and we'll see if he gets asked in 2027.

这正是公司想知道的。

That's what companies wanna find out.

不过时机不太好，因为现在硬件越来越贵了。

It's tough timing, though, because hardware is getting so expensive right now.

记住，AI的发展让所有电子产品都变贵了，因为设备里的芯片和内存竞争非常激烈。

Remember, the AI build out is making every electronics more expensive as the chips and the memory that goes into these devices are being hot hotly contested.

那他们为什么还要走这条路呢？

So why do they go down this path?

他们瞄准的是早期用户，因为如果你能让那些对这项技术好奇的人先入手，你就能知道这东西到底有没有市场。

They're they're going after early adopters because if you can get your feet in the door with people who are curious about this technology, you do get a sense on if there is a market for it or not.

我最大的疑问是，你真的在乎AI在本地硬件上运行吗？

The big question that I have is, do you really care about running a AI locally on a piece of hardware?

这个问题没多少人关心。

That is something that not many people give 2¢ about.

这不是个说法。

That's not a phrase.

我们知道你想说什么，Toby。

We know what you were going for, Toby.

我们明白了。

We got it.

没错。

Exactly.

所以ChatGPT的工作方式是，你……

So the way that, you know, ChatGPT works is that you...

当你输入提示时，它会进入云端服务器，然后把答案反馈给你。

When you prompt something, it's going into a cloud server, and then it's feeding answers back to you.

但有些公司，比如微软，正在推出支持AI的笔记本电脑，你可以在设备上本地运行AI。

But some other companies like Microsoft is are rolling out AI enabled laptops where you can run the AI locally on your device.

谁在乎呢？

Who cares?

他们现在就是在摸索这个问题。

That's what they're kind of figuring out.

普通消费者会在意他们是在云端提问，还是在设备上的本地芯片上操作吗？

Is the normal consumer gonna care if they are prompting the cloud or some chip locally on your device?

他们现在花大价钱，就是想看看这到底有没有区别。

That is what they are paying up right now to see if it actually does matter or not.

我得说，确实有些场景需要有个工具帮你记笔记。

I will say, I mean, there is a couple of use cases for something that takes notes for you.

我们昨天开会的时候，我们……

We were in a meeting yesterday and we were...

有人提起了我们几个月前好像讨论过的一些事情，我们俩都愣住了，说，等等，你能再提醒我一下那是什么吗？

Somebody brought up all this stuff that we allegedly had talked about a few months ago, and we both were like, wait, can you remind me what that was again?

说实话，我脑子里第一个念头就是，我真希望有个像Bee那样的东西，能在后台自动记笔记，这样我就不用操心了，它还能提醒我们当时具体聊了什么，我们的想法是什么。

And I honestly, the first thing that that popped into my mind was, I would love to have not Bee or some some sort of thing that just took notes in the background, so I didn't have to and would just remind us exactly what we talked about, what our ideas were.

所以你需要一些记性好、又聪明的同事啊。

That's why you have really intelligent coworkers with great memories as well.

再说一遍，别把负担都推给同事，但你说得对，有时候确实希望身边能多一个帮手。

Again, don't don't put burden on your coworkers, but you're absolutely right that sometimes it would be nice to have an extra brain on your side.

好了。

Alright.

我们稍微休息一下，回来之后马上带来尼尔狗狗的一周。

We're gonna take a quick break and come back with Neil's dog a week right after this.

托比，如果你有1500美元花在机票上，你会去哪儿？

Toby, where would you go with $1,500 to spend on airfare?

当然是去我最喜欢的地方——明尼苏达州布卢明顿，往返头等舱，宝贝。

First class round trip to my favorite place on earth, Bloomington, Minnesota, baby.

有了万事达黑卡，在限时优惠期间，只要满足账户活动要求，你就能赚取高达75000点的奖励积分。

Well, with Mastercard Black Card, you can earn up to 75,000 bonus points after qualifying account activity with their limited time offer.

这些积分在兑换机票时价值高达1500美元，而且没有禁运日期或座位限制。

That's worth up to $1,500 when redeemed toward airfare with no blackout dates or seat restrictions.

他们得把我从美国购物中心里拖出来才行。

They're gonna have to drag me out of the ball of America.

更多详情，请访问 luxurycard.com/brew。

Visit luxurycard.com/brew for more details.

网址是 luxurycard.com/brew。

That's luxurycard.com/brew.

优惠活动即将结束。

Offer ends soon.

适用条款和条件。

Terms and conditions apply.

尼尔，你出差时得到过最好的东西是什么？

What's the best thing you've ever gotten out of a work trip, Neil?

是旅途中交到的朋友吧？

The friends I made along the way?

哦，那可不太行。

Oh, that's not good at all.

你应该试着得到更好的东西，比如奖励。

You should try getting better things like rewards.

用Hotels.com，出差的日子也能为下一次度假攒钱。

With hotels.com, business days can help fund the next getaway.

会员最高可省20%，出差住宿还能赚取奖励，这些奖励可以用来抵扣未来的旅行，让每次出差都更有价值。

Members save up to 20%, earn rewards on workstays, and can redeem them on future travel, making every work trip more valuable.

免费注册他们的奖励计划，每次出差住宿都能开始累积奖励，访问hotels.com/morningbrew。

Sign up for their free rewards program and start earning on every work stay at hotels.com/morningbrew.

网址是hotels.com/morningbrew。

That's hotels.com/morningbrew.

忠诚会员需年满18岁。

Loyalty members 18 plus.

美国的商业环境变化之快，就像高档农场到餐桌餐厅的每日特价菜单一样。

The business landscape in The US feels like it's changing as often as the specials board at a fancy farm to table restaurant.

即将到来的中期选举很可能只会带来更多变化。

The upcoming midterm elections are likely only going to bring more change.

幸好，普华永道能帮上忙。

Thankfully, PwC can help.

凭借数十年的经验和专业知识，他们与领导者合作，帮助理解市场波动。

Using decades of experience and expertise, they work with leaders to help make sense of the volatility.

普华永道首先分析贸易、人工智能、资本和能源的变化如何影响你的业务。

PwC starts by identifying how changes in trade, AI, capital, and energy can affect your business.

然后，他们会收集洞察，权衡利弊，并分享观点，供你参考决策。

From there, they'll gather insights, model trade offs, and share perspectives you can use to inform your decisions.

在变革中获得支持。

Get support leading through change.

访问 pwc.com/us/2026midterms。

Head to pwc.com/us/2026midterms.

本周的“狗”是加州传奇的葡萄酒产业，它现在的处境比你在大学里喝醉后的宿醉还惨。

My dog of the week is California's legendary wine industry, which is hurting worse than your hangover after slapping the bag in college.

现在正值加州酿酒葡萄的收获季，但很明显，葡萄太多了，需求根本跟不上。

We're in the middle of the harvest season for California wine grapes, and it's abundantly clear that there are way too many of them given the demand.

这场危机迫使葡萄种植者做出艰难的选择，而且一个比一个糟糕。

The crisis has forced grape growers to make difficult choices, each worse than the last.

是亏本采收呢？

Do I harvest them for a loss?

还是什么都不做，让葡萄挂在藤上？

Do nothing and keep them on the vine?

或者干脆把葡萄园整个拔掉，改种人们真正会买的东西。

Tear up my vineyard altogether and plant something people will actually buy.

越来越多的人选择了后者。

More and more are choosing the latter.

据联合葡萄种植者协会主席介绍，加州曾经有60万英亩的葡萄园，但农民已经在大约25%的土地上移除或停止积极种植酿酒葡萄。

According to the president of Allied Grape Growers, California once had 600,000 acres of vineyards, but farmers have removed or stopped actively growing wine grapes on about 25% of that land.

这反映了美国葡萄酒消费的彻底崩溃。

It reflects the utter collapse of wine drinking in The United States.

在疫情期间达到顶峰后，过去五年销量下降了超过20%，而去年的降幅是所有酒类中最高的。

After peaking during the pandemic, sales have collapsed more than 20% over the past five years, and last year's drop was the biggest among all alcoholic beverage categories.

葡萄酒在婴儿潮一代中很受欢迎，但随着他们逐渐减少饮酒，年轻人对黑皮诺并不热衷。

Wine was big with the baby boomer generation, but as they age out of frequent drinking, younger folks aren't pining for Pinot.

加州葡萄酒行业的衰退对该地区经济影响巨大。

The decline of California's wine industry has major economic ramifications for the region.

这是一个庞大的产业，年收入达840亿美元，占美国葡萄酒产量的80%。

This is a massive sector doing $84,000,000,000 per year in revenue and accounting for 80% of wine production in The US.

但正如葡萄过剩所表明的，情况在好转之前会先变得更糟，如果它还能好转的话。

But as is clear from the grape glut, this is gonna get worse before it gets better, if it ever gets better.

葡萄太多，顾客不够，这可不是成功的配方。

Too many grapes, not enough customers, not a good recipe for success.

所以种植者，即使他们在拔除葡萄园，也在琢磨该用什么来替代这些葡萄园。

So growers, even as they pull out vineyards, are figuring out what to replace those vineyards with.

有一些其他作物，比如杏仁、核桃、开心果、橄榄，可能更赚钱，但很多种植者也在盯着龙舌兰。

And you have some other products like almonds, walnuts, pistachios, olives that potentially make more money, but a lot of growers are also eyeing agave as well.

那是用来制作龙舌兰酒和梅斯卡尔酒的原料。

That's what you use to make tequila in the mezcal.

种植和培育龙舌兰植物要便宜得多。

It is a lot cheaper to plant and to cultivate, the agave plant.

它需要的水和养护也更少，但风险不小。

It also requires less water and maintenance, but it is risky.

彭博社提到，加州本地的蒸馏产能非常有限，对龙舌兰加工的了解也不多。

Bloomberg said that there's very little local distilling capacity in California or knowledge about processing agave.

所以，即使成本稍低，这些种植者也是直接一头扎进这个陌生领域，前路未卜。

So you're diving head first into this category that it's uncharted waters for a lot of these growers even if it is a little cheaper.

而且你也不能把它叫做龙舌兰酒或龙舌兰。

And you can't also call it tequila or agave.

你得给它起个类似加州版龙舌兰的名字，实际上你得发明一个新名字，因为那些名称是受保护的。

You would have to call it, like, the California version of tequila, which you you just have to invent a new name because those are protected.

顺便说一句，如果你想喝点好的梅斯卡尔酒，去瓦哈卡吧。

Side note, if you wanna go drink some good mezcal, go to Oaxaca.

我去过那里的一个龙舌兰农场，真的超酷，他们会让你玩得很尽兴。

I went to an agave farm there, and it is just so cool, and they will they will show you a good time.

对，就是这样。

So, yeah.

一定要去一趟……

Definitely head out...

去瓦哈卡看看吧。

Head down to Oaxaca.

但如果你是葡萄酒爱好者，其实现在是最好的时机，因为你能以很便宜的价格买到一些非常棒的葡萄酒，因为那些酿酒的地方在自己的葡萄园或装瓶区根本卖不出去。

But if you are a wine drinker, actually times have never been better because you are getting some excellent wines on the cheap because these places that make wine can't really sell them at their own vineyards or their own bottling areas.

所以他们就把酒倾销给像Costco、Kroger和Aldi这样的大型零售商，你会看到原本作为酒庄品牌可能卖150美元的葡萄酒，现在在这些零售商那里以自有品牌或独家品牌卖不到30美元。

So what they're doing is dumping them onto mass retailers like Costco, Kroger, and Aldi, and you're seeing bottles that would go for maybe a $150 as a winery brand being sold for less than $30 under a private label or exclusive label at these retailers.

所以如果你去Costco的葡萄酒区或Kroger的葡萄酒区看看，你会捡到很多便宜货。

So if you check out the Costco wine section or the Kroger wine section, I mean, you are gonna get some incredible deals.

Kroger负责葡萄酒、啤酒和烈酒的主管说，看，我们现在有非常棒的葡萄酒。

Could the guy who manages wine, beer, and spirits at Kroger said, look, we have incredible wines now.

他说，在过去的两个月里，我们的产品组合中，来自权威评论家的90分以上的葡萄酒从零增加到了20款。

He said, we went from having no wines with 90 plus scores in our portfolio from respectable reviewers to 20 in just the last two months.

所以好酒现在都流向这些地方了。

So this is where the good wine is going.

这些好酒都流向了Costco和Kroger。

It's going to Costco and Kroger.

你觉得它还会回来吗？

You think it ever comes back?

显然，葡萄酒消费在某一代人和新冠期间的某个时段达到了顶峰，但你觉得从现在开始就是缓慢下滑，还是说它会永远是人类的一部分？

I mean, obviously, wine consumption peaked with a certain generation and during a certain time in COVID, but do you think it's just a slow decline from here on out, or is it something that will just always be a part of humanity?

我也不知道。

I have no idea.

它已经伴随人类几千年了。

I mean, it has been a part of humanity for thousands of years.

所以奥德修斯也在喝，你知道的……

So Odysseus was drinking if, you know...

对我来说，一种伴随人类这么长时间的东西，人们已经表现出喜欢它，而且它是文化的一部分。

For me, something that has been around humanity for so long and people have shown that they like it, and it's a it's a part of the culture.

我看不出它会消失。

I don't see how it goes away.

我觉得确实会这样……

I I think it does...

这些都是繁荣和萧条的周期。

These are boom and bust cycles.

现在我们正处于一个巨大的萧条期，连业内的人都说，也许这整体上是件好事。

Right now, we're in a huge bust cycle, and even people in the industry say, like, maybe this overall is a good thing.

加州葡萄园破产的太多了，但也许这只是其中一个时期，2021年可能确实有点过度建设了。

I mean, there's been so many bankruptcies in California vineyards, but perhaps it's just, you know, one of those periods where there was maybe overbuilding going on in 2021.

那时候大家都在喝葡萄酒，就在六……

Everyone was drinking wine just six...

就在五年前。

Just five years ago.

五年前大家都在喝葡萄酒的时候，我们绝对不会聊这个话题。

I mean, we would never be having this conversation five years ago when everyone was drinking wine.

现在五年后我们却在聊这个，但谁知道再过五年我们会说什么呢。

Now we're having it five years later, but who knows what we'll be saying five years down the road.

希望不会吧。

I hope not.

我很喜欢葡萄酒。

I love wine.

另外再提一下，我最喜欢的电影之一是《杯酒人生》，保罗·吉亚玛提去了加州葡萄酒产区，那真是一部很棒的电影。

And another shout out, one of my favorite movies is Sideways where Paul Giamatti goes to California wine country, and it's just an incredible movie.

好了。

Alright.

我们快速收尾，来看几条最后的头条新闻。

Let's sprint to the finish with some final headlines.

在昨天的节目中，你听到消费者价格在令人不安地上涨。

On yesterday's show, you heard that consumer prices were ticking uncomfortably higher.

一份新报告显示，批发价格的涨幅甚至更大。

A new report showed that wholesale prices are soaring even more.

昨天的生产者价格指数显示，9月份批发价格同比上涨6.3%，高于8月份的5.6%。

Yesterday's Producer Price Index revealed wholesale prices jumped 6.3% in September from a year ago, up from a 5.6% gain in August.

这是自2022年12月以来生产者价格指数最大的一次涨幅，也证实了通胀正朝着错误的方向发展，无论是产品进入仓库时，还是在销售环节。

It's the biggest jump in the PPI since December 2022, and confirms that inflation is headed in the wrong direction, whether it's when a product hits the warehouse or at the point of sale.

和消费者价格报告一样，批发通胀也是因为燃料价格飙升而被推高的。

Like in the consumer price report, wholesale inflation was pushed higher by surging fuel prices.

柴油成本飙升，火车和卡车都要用，这推高了所有需要运输的商品的成本。

The soaring cost of diesel, is used by trains and trucks, is pushing up the cost of anything that needs to be moved.

高频经济公司的卡尔·温伯格在给客户的报告中写道，运输价格受到冲击，影响了经济中的每一种商品，因为制造业的投入品要运到工厂，各个生产阶段的商品都要通过卡车、火车或铁路从生产者运到批发商再到零售商。

In a client note, Carl Weinberg of High Frequency Economics wrote, The jolted transportation prices affects every good in the economy since inputs to manufacturing move to factories and goods at all stages of production move from producer to wholesaler to retailer by truck, train or rail.

这就是能源价格上涨如何渗透到核心商品价格中的。

This is how increases energy prices bleed through to prices of core goods.

这也让市场经历了一个奇怪的日子。

It led to a weird day in the market too.

说实话，我们本来已经准备好报道全球股市暴跌这个头条新闻了。

Just candidly, we had this top story all ready to go about the global stock route.

就是因为这两个连续的高通胀报告。

Thanks to these back to back hot inflation reports.

虽然芯片指数有点抛售，但标普500反弹了，涨了0.33%，纳斯达克也勉强涨了0.08%。

And while there was a bit of a sell off in a chip index, the S and P five hundred bounced back, rose 0.33%, and Nasdaq eked out a 0.08% gain.

涨幅不大，但投资者还是进场了。

It wasn't much, but investors came in.

他们像往常一样逢低买入，每次PPI或CPI数据一热，市场就像穿了反重力靴子一样。

They bought the dip as they have been want to do, and the market just seems to have these anti gravity boots on every time a hot PPI or CPI report comes in.

我们认为裂缝正在形成。

We think cracks are forming.

反弹不可避免，就像昨天那样。

The bounce inevitably comes as it did yesterday.

接着说，你的投资组合可能一片红，但哈佛的可没有。

Moving on, your portfolio might be crimson, but Harvard's isn't.

这所大学的捐赠基金刚刚公布了27%的年回报率，把它的应急基金推到了创纪录的680亿美元。

The university's endowment just posted a 27 annual return, pushing its rainy day fund to a record $68,000,000,000.

这得益于股市的繁荣，还有一笔特别赚钱的投资——押注了埃隆·马斯克的SpaceX，持股价值超过20亿美元。

The rise comes thanks to a booming stock market and also a particularly lucrative bet on Elon Musk's SpaceX with a stake worth over $2,000,000,000.

哈佛捐赠基金增加了110亿美元，这是自2021年以来最好的表现，也超过了大型大学捐赠基金19%的中位数回报率，以及同期标普500指数22%的回报率。

The $11,000,000,000 increase to its endowment was Harvard's best performance since 2021 and beat both the 19% median return for large college endowments and the S and P five hundred's 22% return over the same period.

这也是个好时机，因为哈佛一直在与特朗普总统就联邦资金问题争执不休，过去一年政府资助的研究经费下降了20%。

It was a good time to have a great year too since Harvard has been locked in a battle with president Trump over federal funding with government sponsored research money falling 20% this past year.

哈佛在市场上把我打败了，但话说回来，那边的聪明脑袋可能确实应该赢。

You know, Harvard kicked my butt in the market, but then again, the big brains over there probably should.

你上的是另一所常春藤盟校。

You went to a a different IV.

你看到布朗大学去年的捐赠基金回报率了吗？

Did you did you see what Brown's endowment return was for last year?

没有。

No.

19.6%，这算不错了，但还是低于标普500指数。

19.6%, which is solid, but that's less than the s and b 500.

但你……

But you...