美伊达成初步和平协议，尼克斯队成为 NBA 总冠军

人工智能还是片未开垦的领域，很多领导者都在没有向导的情况下摸索前行。

AI is unchartered territory, and many leaders are trying to navigate through without a guide to help them.

所以Morning Brew联合普华永道推出了新播客《智能转型》。

That's why Morning Brew created The Intelligence Shift, a new podcast with PwC.

这档节目深入探讨人工智能如何从根本上改变各个行业。

It's all about how AI is fundamentally changing different industries.

主持人丹·普里斯特邀请了一众行业顶尖领袖，分享他们真实的经历和宝贵经验。

Host Dan Priest is joined by a top tier roster of industry leaders who share real stories and real lessons learned.

听听行业专家的建议，获得实用指导。

Get guidance from industry experts.

无论你在哪个平台听播客，都别错过《智能转型》。

Listen to the intelligence shift wherever you get your podcasts.

早上好，Brew每日秀。

Good morning, Brew Daily Show.

我是尼尔·弗莱曼。

I'm Neil Fryman.

我是托比·霍威尔。

And I'm Toby Howell.

今天，UFC走进主流视野，一场拳赛竟然在白宫举行。

Today, UFC enters the mainstream with a cage match at the White House.

本，这不是梦。

Ben, it wasn't a dream.

纽约尼克斯队真的赢得了NBA总冠军。

The New York Knicks really won an NBA championship.

今天是6月15日，星期一。

It's Monday, June 15.

咱们出发吧。

Let's ride.

到目前为止，世界杯带来了许多精彩的文化交融场景。

So far, the World Cup has given us amazing scenes of cross cultural exchange.

无论是苏格兰的格子军团清晨六点半在波士顿吹起风笛，还是韩国球迷在瓜达拉哈拉和新结识的墨西哥朋友一起喝龙舌兰酒。

Whether it's Scotland's tartan army taking over Boston with 06:30AM bagpipes, or South Korea fans doing tequila shots with their new Mexican friends in Guadalajara.

但最让美国人感到困惑的，还是日本球迷赛后把看台打扫得干干净净的做法。

But nothing baffles the American mind quite like Japan supporters who become known for leaving their sections spotless after games.

昨天，日本球迷自带塑料垃圾袋来到达拉斯的球场，视频里能看到他们在与荷兰队2比2激战后，主动清理了自己留下的垃圾。

Yesterday, Japan fans brought their own plastic trash bags to the stadium in Dallas and were seen on video cleaning up their litter following a thrilling two two draw with The Netherlands.

2022年日本队的教练对《The Athletic》说，这不过是再正常不过的事。

The coach of the 2022 Japan team told The Athletic, this was just a normal thing to do.

你离开一个地方，就得让它比你来的时候更干净。

When you leave a place, you have to leave it cleaner than it was before.

到目前为止，日本球迷无疑是世界杯最大的亮点。

Japanese fans are undoubtedly the stars of the World Cup so far.

你看到那个第一次遇到免费玉米片和莎莎酱的球迷了吗？

Did you see this one fan encountering free chips and salsa for the first time?

他发了一篇帖子，在X平台上已经被观看了一千六百多万次。

He wrote a post that's been viewed on x more than 16,000,000 times.

他说，我朋友提醒过我。

He says, my friend warned me.

别光吃薯片啊，兄弟。

Don't fill up on the chips, dude.

已经晚了。

Too late.

我知道，我拿了三份薯条。

I get I had accepted three baskets.

面子上过不去，每一份都得吃完。

Honor demanded each one be finished.

等我的正餐端上来时，我已经吃撑了。

By the time my actual food arrived, I was a ruined man.

我一点都不饿。

I was not hungry.

我败在了人家的客气上。

I had been defeated by a courtesy.

真是绝了。

Just incredible stuff.

当然了，日本队也在达拉斯比赛，所以有很多刚吃完德州烧烤的日本球迷接受采访。

Of course, Japan played in Dallas too, which means lots of interviews with Japanese fans fresh off of eating Texas barbecue.

他们满脸兴奋地讲着吃牛排、吃特里·布莱克斯、吃汉堡的经历。

They're beaming as they recount tales of eating steak, of eating Terry Blacks, of eating burgers.

世界杯该有的样子，恰恰就体现在这种跨文化的交融中。

So just everything that the World Cup should be is embodied by this sort of cross cultural pollination.

而且日本队本身也打得特别出色。

It also helps that Japan's team is awesome too.

接下来的比赛，我们都会为他们加油。

We'll be rooting for them going forwards.

接下来插播一段来自赞助商ServiceNow的广告。

And now a word from our sponsor ServiceNow.

尼尔，好几个穿拉链运动衫的顾问告诉我，人工智能会让我的生活更轻松，替我干掉所有讨厌的工作部分。

Neil, a bunch of consultants in quarter zips told me AI would make my life easier and do all the parts of my job I hate.

结果呢，我只收到一堆怎么让AI更好用的建议。

Instead, I have a bunch of suggestions on how to make it work.

怎么回事？

What gives?

听起来你还没用ServiceNow的AI专家。

Sounds like you're not using ServiceNow's AI specialists.

他们能从头到尾把事情办妥。

They get work done from start to finish.

问题能解决，流程能闭环，你不用多费劲。

Cases get resolved, loops get closed, no extra work for you.

所以它能帮我做我最拿手的部分，剩下的交出去，就像那些穿quarter zip的人说的一样？

So it'll do the parts of my job I'm best at and let me delegate the rest just like consultants in the quarter zip said?

当然，托比。

Sure, Toby.

想要让AI真正帮到你，就去servicenow.com。

To put AI to work for people, visit servicenow.com.

网址是servicenow.com。

That's servicenow.com.

伊朗的战争似乎正在缓和。

The war in Iran appears to be winding down.

昨天，美国和伊朗宣布达成了一项和平框架协议，将停火期延长六十天，并为伊朗核计划的进一步谈判铺路。

Yesterday, The United States and Iran announced they agreed to a framework peace deal that extends their ceasefire for sixty days and sets up further negotiations around Iran's nuclear program.

特朗普在社交媒体上表示，霍尔木兹海峡将于周五重新开放，届时将举行正式签署仪式。

In a social media post, Trump said the Strait Of Hormuz would open up again on Friday when a formal signing will take place.

这条水道已经关闭了一百多天，导致全球五分之一的石油和天然气无法进入市场，能源价格因此飙升。

The waterway has been closed for over one hundred days, trapping one fifth of the world's oil and natural gas from reaching markets and sending energy prices soaring.

特朗普宣布：‘世界各国的船只，启动引擎吧，让石油流动起来。’

Trump declared, ships of the world start your engines, let the oil flow.

作为开放霍尔木兹海峡的交换条件，伊朗希望美国解冻其海外数十亿美元的资金，并放宽严厉的金融制裁。

Exchange for the reopening of Hormuz, Iran expects The US to unfreeze billions of dollars in cash it has abroad and ease punishing financial sanctions.

托比，全世界的经济都在松一口气。

Toby, economies all over the world are breathing a sigh of relief.

不过就算船真的开动了，石油也不见得就能顺利流出来。

Even if the ships do start their engines though, it's not like the oil will flow.

这可不是一按开关就能解决的事。

It's not as simple as flipping a switch.

在船只恢复正常航行之前，还得处理一大堆后勤积压和检查事项。

There is a huge logistical backlog and checklist that needs to happen before ships can move normally again.

别忘了，有些船已经停了太久，需要维修保养。

Remember, some of these ships have been sitting for so long they need maintenance.

船身底部长了太多藤壶，现在连通过海峡都变得很困难。

They have accumulated so many barnacles on the hold that it's not easy for them to even navigate the strait properly anymore.

这些航运公司可不会轻易认为问题已经解决了。

And these shipping companies are not ready to declare victory by any stretch.

他们得先确认保险公司会不会重新提供保险，毕竟现在还很担心这个停火协议不牢靠——以前吃过亏了。

They need to know if insurers will come back to providing coverage for them because they're still very nervous that this is a tenuous, you know, ceasefire because they've been burned before.

目前波斯湾里还有六百艘船在来回徘徊。

And then the the also the issue is there are 600 ships now milling about in the Persian Gulf right now.

霍尔木兹海峡并不宽。

The Strait Of Hormuz is not big.

这是一条海峡。

It is a strait.

最宽的地方也只有24英里。

At its widest point, it's only 24 miles wide.

航道本身每方向只有两英里宽。

Shipping lanes themselves are just two miles wide in each direction.

一旦封锁正式解除，肯定会迎来一场大堵船。

So there is a big traffic jam waiting to happen once the blockade does officially lift.

如果几百艘船同时涌过去，那场面简直不堪设想。

If all hundreds of ships try to go through at the same time, it's gonna just going to be a nightmare.

是啊，现在确实有不少乐观情绪，因为这可能是我们离这场战争真正结束最近的一次。

So, yes, there's lots of, you know, optimism now because this is probably the closest we've come to the war finally winding down.

但现实点说，如果你愿意往坏处想，就得琢磨怎么让这么多船通过这个关键瓶颈。

But in reality, if you wanna put your pessimism hat on, you gotta figure out the logistics to get all these ships through this massive choke point.

对。

Yeah.

在看市场情况。

Checking the markets.

今天早上油价跌了百分之五。

Looks like oil is down 5% this morning.

股市涨得不错。

Stocks are up big.

纳斯达克几乎涨了百分之二。

The Nasdaq is almost up 2%.

标普指数涨了超过百分之一百。

S and P is up over 100%.

道琼斯指数涨了将近百分之一。

Dow is up nearly 1%.

所以华尔街的投资者认为，这场持续了一百多天、引发全球经济动荡的战争即将结束。

So investors on Wall Street thinks that this long over a hundred day war that's sent economic turmoil all over the globe is about to be ending.

特朗普现在正前往七国集团会议。

Trump is now on his way to the g seven.

这周对地缘政治来说至关重要，他将在法国与七国集团的主要领导人会面，比如法国和英国的领导人。

It's a big week for big week for geopolitics in France where he'll meet with top leaders from the g seven, like from France and The UK.

我们等着看这笔交易的具体细节陆续公布。

We'll And look for more details on the actual x's and o's of this deal as they come out.

接下来，白宫园丁今天早上有得忙了，因为昨晚有一场UFC比赛在南草坪上举行。

Moving on, the White House groundskeeper is in for a long morning today because last night, a bunch of UFC fights went down on the South Lawn.

这场名为‘UFC自由250’的赛事，给美国首都带来了一场前所未有的盛况。

UFC Freedom two fifty, as it was dubbed, brought an unprecedented spectacle to the nation's capital.

举办这场活动耗资超过六千万美元，由UFC的母公司出资，结果亏损了大约三千万。

More than $60,000,000 went into putting on the event with UFC's parent company footing the bill and losing roughly 30,000,000 in the process.

公众根本没怎么要求在白宫办这种格斗赛。

It wasn't like the public was clamoring for the fisticuffs.

路透社与益普索的民调显示，只有16%的受访者认为在白宫举办UFC比赛是合适的，近一半的人觉得不合适。

A Reuters Ipsos poll found that just 16% of respondents say holding UFC fights at the White House is appropriate, while nearly half say it's inappropriate.

但特朗普反驳批评者，援引了历史先例。

But Trump pushed back on critics by citing historical precedent.

支持者指出，白宫长期以来一直用于公共活动，特朗普还特别提到西奥多·罗斯福曾参与过类似格斗赛事，以此证明总统办公场所完全可以举办这类活动。

The White House has long been used for public events, supporters argue, with Trump specifically naming Teddy Roosevelt and his participation in previous fights as proof that the workplace of the president could be used for such an event.

这场活动还恰逢特朗普八十岁生日，为美国建国二百五十年的系列庆祝活动增添了更多娱乐消遣。

The event also commemorated Trump's eightieth birthday and brought more bread and circuses to the larger months long celebrations of America's two hundred and fiftieth anniversary.

尼尔，昨晚的场景真是有点超现实。

Neil, it was a pretty surreal scene last night.

四千名持票嘉宾中，有不少是现役军人，他们围坐在临时搭建的擂台周围。

Service members made up a good portion of the 4,000 ticketed guests who sat around the temporary arena.

大约八万人聚集在白宫门外，观看现场直播。

Around 80,000 people gathered for a watch party outside the White House gates.

拳手们穿过白宫内部，包括椭圆形办公室，一路走向擂台，而加密货币和淡啤酒的赞助商广告，就悬挂在世界最著名建筑之一的背景前。

Fighters walked through parts of the White House, including the Oval Office to get to the ring, and crypto and light beer sponsors were juxtaposed against the backdrop of one of the most famous buildings in the world.

简直让人难以置信。

It was hard to wrap your head around.

确实挺离谱的，不过比赛打得不错。

It was bizarre, but the fights were good.

比赛安排得挺到位，虽然算不上历史上最顶级的赛事，但周日晚上七场对决全部以击倒或技术击倒收场。

All set like, it wasn't the most prestigious card ever, but all seven of the fights on Sunday night ended with a knockout or a TKO.

这对UFC和CEO达纳·怀特来说意义重大。

This is huge for UFC and CEO Dana White.

二十五年前，除了少数铁杆粉丝，根本没人知道UFC是什么。

Twenty five years ago, no one knew what UFC was outside of just a very niche group of of hardcore fans.

现在它已经是一家价值两千亿美元的公司了。

Now this is a $20,000,000,000 company.

他们刚和派拉蒙签了价值七十七亿美元的流媒体协议，现在又在白宫拿到了头牌待遇。

They just signed a t or a streaming deal with Paramount for $7,700,000,000, and they just got top billing at the White House.

比赛直接在白宫草坪上打，全国观众都在看，很多人可能还得花钱订阅Paramount+才能看这场赛事。

They're fighting on the White House lawn in front of the entire nation who probably had to pay who many of whom probably paid for Paramount plus just to watch this fight.

达纳·怀特说，这是公司历史上最重要的活动。

So for Dana White, he said he said, this is the most important event in the company's history.

他们砸了六千万美元，但他觉得这笔钱光靠宣传就能轻松回本。

They shelled out $60,000,000, and he thinks that they're going to recoup that easily in publicity.

是的。

Yeah.

这确实是关键问题。

That was the big question.

为什么要这么做？

Why do it?

因为如果真像报道的那样亏了三千万，干嘛还费这劲？

Because if you did lose, you know, $30,000,000 as was reported, why go through the hassle of doing it?

这跟你刚才说的一样。

And it is what you were saying.

他们想推动Paramount+的订阅，高管们说这场活动的曝光度堪比超级碗，这说法可能有点夸大了。

They want to sell subscriptions to Paramount plus executives were saying that this had the same exposure opportunity as a Super Bowl, which may have been overstating their hands a little bit.

不过我后来读了几个现场观众的反馈。

But then I was kinda reading what some attendees had to say.

来自宾夕法尼亚州阿尔图纳的27岁青年凯伦·德鲁里告诉《纽约邮报》，他没买到票，还是专程赶了过来。

Kellen Drury, a 27 year old for Altoona, Pennsylvania, told the New York Post he made the trip to be there despite not having tickets.

他说，就算没票，来这一趟也值了。

He said it was worth the trip just to be here.

就像站在超级碗现场外面一样。

It's like being outside the Super Bowl.

所以，这个比喻或许还真有点道理，至少对那些最狂热的UFC粉丝来说是这样。

So maybe that comparison does have some heft, at least for, you know, the most UFC crazed fans out there.

还有另一位在场的人，估计笑得合不拢嘴，那就是派拉蒙的首席执行官大卫·埃里森。

And another person in attendance who is probably smiling from ear to ear was David Ellison, who is the CEO of Paramount.

周五，司法部宣布不会阻止派拉蒙收购华纳兄弟探索。

On Friday, the DOJ said it would not block Paramount's takeover of Warner Brothers Discovery.

就是那笔高达一千一百一十亿美元的大交易。

That huge $111,000,000,000 deal.

记得派拉蒙和奈飞之前一直在拉锯，过程特别政治化。

Remember Paramount and Netflix have been going back and forth, very political process.

结果周五，司法部直接说：你们可以了。

And on Friday, DOJ said, you guys are good.

我们在这里没看到任何竞争问题。

We don't see any competition concerns here.

现在大卫·埃里森43岁了。

So now David Ellison is 43 years old.

如果这笔交易最终成行——看起来很可能成功——他马上就会成为国内最有影响力的媒体大亨之一。

He's gonna be one of the biggest media moguls in the land right now if the deal goes through, which it looks like it probably will.

虽然还得等海外监管机构批准，但司法部已经表示，他们可以 proceed了。

There still has to be some approvals by overseas regulators, but the DOJ said they can go they can go through with it.

所以大卫·埃里森现在将拥有两家好莱坞电影公司：华纳兄弟和派拉蒙。

So David Ellison will now own two Hollywood movie studios, Warner Brothers and Paramount.

两家流媒体平台：派拉蒙+和HBO，呃，HBO我有点搞混了，是HBO Max吧？

Two streaming services, Paramount Plus and HBO, and then HBO I don't even know what HBO is HBO Max, think.

现在叫Max了。

HBO Max or Max.

还有两家主要新闻网络：CNN和CBS。

And then also two major news networks, CNN and CBS.

所以这对他来说也算是一种庆祝吧，我还听说他们举杯喝了香槟。

So this is also kind of a celebration for him, I think, had a champagne toast.

当然，这件事的政治意味体现在他坐在白宫草坪上这一幕。

Of course, the politicalness of it was embodied by the fact that he was sitting on the White House lawn.

别忘了，大卫·埃里森的父亲是甲骨文的联合创始人拉里·埃里森，他可是特朗普的铁杆支持者。

Because remember, David Ellison's father is Oracle cofounder Larry Ellison, who's a big Trump ally.

在并购审查期间，特朗普曾出席过派拉蒙主办的一场晚宴。

Trump attended a Paramount hosted dinner during the review process for this merger.

而且大卫·埃里森还在特朗普八十岁生日时坐在他旁边。

And of course, David Ellison was sitting ringside by Trump at his eightieth birthday.

所以整个并购获批的背后，其实都带着这层潜台词。

So of course, that's the undertone to this entire merger getting approved.

此外，不少观察人士指出，司法部的表态对这项并购的背书格外明确，他们明确说这‘不太可能损害竞争或美国消费者利益’。

Plus a lot of onlookers were saying it was an unusually specific endorsement of the merger because the takeaway from the DOJ was that this is, quote, not likely to harm competition or American consumers.

包括前反垄断主管比尔·贝耶在内的许多行业观察者都表示，司法部这次给出的理由比通常不提起诉讼的决定要详细得多。

A lot of industry watchers, including, former anti touch chief Bill Bayer said the agency statement was unusually detailed for the decision to not sue.

很多人把它解读为明确的支持，但这其实并不是司法部通常会做的事。

So many read it as an explicit endorsement, which is just not something the DOJ necessarily does.

这件事背后真是意味深长，你看这场UFC盛会，简直像一场大型表演，这位媒体大亨就在我们眼前，就在南草坪上人们拳脚相向的时候，被推上了神坛。

So fascinating undertones around this, you know, massive spectacle of the UFC event that, you know, this media mogul was minted right before our eyes as, you know, people were beating each other up on the South Lawn.

再说回正题，这周末本来有SpaceX上市、世界杯、NBA总决赛就够热闹了，结果AI圈又出了件惊人的事。

Moving on, as if the SpaceX IPO World Cup NBA finals weren't enough to keep you occupied this weekend, there's been a wild development in the already wild world of AI.

周五，美国联邦政府以国家安全为由，禁止外国公民、公司、政府和个人使用Anthropic最新推出的两款AI模型——Mythos 5和Fable 5。

On Friday, the US federal government banned foreign nationals, companies, governments, and individuals from using Anthropic's latest and greatest AI models, Mythos five and Fable five, over national security concerns.

Anthropic震惊之下，干脆直接关闭了这两款工具对所有人的访问权限，说这是他们唯一能遵守规定的办法。

A stunned Anthropic then decided to shut off access to everyone for both of those tools, saying that was the only way it could comply with the rules.

事实上，公司提到，他们有不少外籍员工，现在连自己参与开发的模型都用不了了。

In fact, Anthropic mentioned it has many foreign born employees who could no longer use the models they developed.

公司在一份声明中说：‘我们认为这是一场误会，正在努力尽快恢复访问权限。’

In a statement, the company said, quote, we believe this is a misunderstanding and are working to restore access as soon as possible.

不管是不是误会，白宫显然对Anthropic不太友好，而这家公司最近刚超过OpenAI，成了全球估值最高的AI初创企业。

Misunderstanding or not, the White House clearly has it out for Anthropic, which recently topped OpenAI as the most valuable AI startup in the world.

政府之前就因为军方访问的问题跟这家公司有过争执，这次的举动无疑是致命一击。

The government already tussled with the company over Pentagon access, and this latest move is the biggest blow yet.

别忘了，Anthropic 正在和对手 OpenAI 竞赛，争取早日上市，现在正拼命给投资者留下最好的财务形象。

Remember, Anthropic is racing against its rival OpenAI to go public and wants to put on its best financial face for investors in the lead up.

可政府这一记重拳，直接把它们新推出的炫酷模型给打趴下了。

But in one right hook to the jaw, the government just knocked out its flashy new models.

简单回顾一下，今年四月，Anthropic 推出了 Mythos，但没对外公开，说它太危险，黑客能力太强，不适合公众使用。

As for the models, a quick reminder, in April, Anthropic launched Mythos but didn't release it to the public saying it was too dangerous, too good at hacking for the public to get their hands on.

上周，他们又发布了 Fable，其实就是 Mythos 加了个紧箍咒，专门限制最危险的使用场景。

Then last week, it released Fable, which is basically mythos and a straight jacket to prevent the most damaging use cases.

托比，这种事我们真没见过。

Toby, we've never seen this before.

美国政府这分明是在削弱自己最强大的科技巨头之一。

The US government seems to be neutering one of its most powerful tech champions.

你还想听点更讽刺的吗？

You wanna talk about irony?

上周三，Anthropic的首席执行官达里奥·阿马德写了一篇长文，主张政府应该有权根据测试结果阻止AI模型的部署。

On Wednesday of last week, Anthropic CEO, Dario Amade, wrote this long essay arguing that governments should have the power to block the deployment of AI models based off of testing.

结果美国政府立马回应：行啊，你可别后悔。

And The US was like, alright, Beth.

小心你所期望的，可能会成真。

Be careful what you wish for.

你被禁了。

You are blocked.

这件事背后还藏着一段类似《权力的游戏》的暗线——据说亚马逊在这项决定中发挥了关键作用。

And there also is this kind of Game of Thrones esque subplot to this whole thing because Amazon appears to have been very influential in this decision being handed down.

据报道，不少科技公司都在讨论如何通过‘越狱’手段绕过对Mythos模型的限制，以应对安全风险。

A lot of tech companies were reportedly discussing these securities concerns by so called jailbreaking these mythos models.

但据传，亚马逊首席执行官安迪·贾西的一条信息影响最大，这挺讽刺的，毕竟亚马逊是Anthropic的大股东，投资了整整250亿美元。

But a message from Amazon CEO Andy Jassy was reported to be among the most influential, which is weird because Amazon is a major investor in Anthropic committing $25,000,000,000.

这就跟《权力的游戏》里那句‘告诉达里亚，这事是我干的’一个味儿。

So it's very similar to like, tell Daria I want them to know it was me vibes like that scene from Game of Thrones.

所以真是有意思，科技圈最顶层的人里，居然有亚马逊最大的投资人之一，反过来给了它一击，让这个模型惹上了美国政府的麻烦。

So it's just fascinating that at the very upper echelon of the tech world, it seems like one of the biggest investors in Amazon kind of backstabbed it and got this model kind of in the bad graces of the US government.

我对这件事的理解是，亚马逊的研究团队和其他科技公司一样，也尝试过绕过这个模型的限制。

My reading of the situation is that Amazon researchers tried to jailbreak this like many other tech companies did.

而亚马逊的CEO安迪·贾西，只是在一般性地表达对这件事的担忧。

And Andy Jassy, the CEO of Amazon and Amazon were just like raising general concerns about this.

我不觉得他们是想立刻叫停Anthropic，非得把它按死不可。

I don't necessarily think that they were like, you need to can't you need to stop Anthropic in his tracks right now.

这太危险了。

This is way too dangerous.

他们只是说，嘿，我们发现了这么个问题。

They were just like, hey, this is something that we found.

结果白宫接过去就放大了，直接推了出去。

And then the White House took and ran with it.

我觉得，如果你看看网络安全专家对这次绕过行为的评价，他们会说：你知道吗？

And I think that because if you just look at what cybersecurity experts were saying about this particular jailbreak, they're saying like, you know what?

其实也没那么严重。

It's actually not that huge of a deal.

这种事对Fable或者Mythos来说并不新鲜。

This is not necessarily new to Fable or Mythos.

其他公司的AI工具也能做到类似的事。

Other companies AI tools can do this as well.

所以他们并不特别在意亚马逊做的这种破解行为。

So they were not so concerned with the particular jailbreaking that Amazon was doing.

我不确定Andy Jassy打电话给白宫时，到底清楚自己在卷入什么，他说：‘我只是想让你们知道我们发现了……’

So I'm not sure Andy Jassy knew what he was getting into when he called up the White House and said, hey, I just wanted to let you know what we

是啊。

Yeah.

Anthropic和美国政府之间暗地里可能真有不小的矛盾，这背后的意思很明显。

It is certainly the subtext of Anthropic versus US government being a massive, you know, feud is probably what's going on here.

对AI公司来说，这确实挺烦的，因为刚觉得特朗普政府可能会对AI监管放松一点。

It it is just annoying if you're an AI company too because you just had the Trump administration seemingly signal that they were gonna take a lighter approach to AI regulation.

记得本月早些时候，特朗普签署了一项行政命令，鼓励企业自愿让政府在发布前审查AI模型，但并没有明确赋予政府否决或批准发布的权力。

Remember, earlier this month, Trump signed that executive order to encourage companies to voluntarily let the government review AI models before release, but it seemed to stop short of giving the government the authority to block or approve releases.

可才过了几周，甚至几天后，他们就对Anthropic的Mythos模型做了同样的事。

And yet just a few weeks later, a few days later, they did exactly that for Anthropic's Mythos model.

所以，如果你是一家前沿AI模型公司，能不能直接告诉我，现在的规定到底是什么？

So you just want if you are a Frontier AI model company, just give me what the regulations actually are.

我们愿意遵守。

We will try to follow them.

但如果每隔几天就偷偷改规则，这真让人头疼——毕竟现在这场技术竞赛，已经是世界上最重要的事了。

But if you change them underneath our feet every few days or so, that makes it annoying to try to, you know, win this technological race that is becoming the most important thing in the world right now.

所以Anthropic很不满。

So Anthropic's annoyed.

也许最后能解决吧。

Maybe it'll get worked out.

但眼下，这事就卡在这么个不上不下的状态里。

But in the meantime, it's just kind of hung in this liminal state.

它不确定能不能把这款模型公开发布。

It doesn't know if it can release this model to the public.

我之前用过Anthropic的产品。

I was on Anthropic.

当你尝试使用那个传说中的模型时，会看到一条提示，说：‘该模型目前正在接受美国政府审查。’

It's it has a little indication when you try to use a fabled model saying like, hey, it is currently under review by the US government.

所以，如果他们想让最强大的模型真正落到全球研究人员手中，就得先把这事儿理清楚。

So they have to figure it out if they want their most powerful models to actually make it in the hands of researchers around the world.

双方在沟通上都完全摸不着头脑。

Both sides have no idea what they're doing with their messaging.

美国政府一边限制这些模型的发布，一边又允许英伟达的高端AI芯片出口到中国——而这些芯片完全可以用来训练他们自己的模型。

Because the US government at the same time is trying to restrict fable and mythos is allowing AI chips from Nvidia, high end AI chips to go to China which could essentially build their own model.

所以他们想两头讨好。

So they're trying to have it both ways.

Anthropic自己也说，让政府有权力放缓或暂时冻结前沿AI的发展，对世界是有好处的，可真轮到自己头上，又开始抱怨了。

And then you have Anthropic as well saying, it would be good for the world to have the option for governments to slow or temporarily pause Frontier AI development and then they complain when it actually happens to them.

所以现在这种情况就像西部荒野一样，危险的AI模型层出不穷，两边的人都不知道该怎么应对。

So we're in the wild west here of, you know, dangerous AI models and people don't really know how to both sides.

我的意思是，虽然有些人有想法，但至少Anthropic和政府现在都乱了套，他们的政策和沟通完全不一致。

I mean, some people have ideas, but at least Anthropic and the government are in a state of chaos right now because both their policies and their messaging is incoherent.

好的。

Alright.

我们先休息一下，稍后回来公布本周末的获奖者。

We're gonna take a quick break and come back with our winners on the weekend right after this.

尼尔，我跟你聊聊债券市场的事。

Neil, let me tell you something about bond markets.

我洗耳恭听。

I'm all ears.

这东西太让人糊涂了。

They are confusing.

一如既往地有见地。

Insightful as ever.

但话说回来，固定收益领域的价值捕捉确实不容易。

But, yes, capturing value in fixed income is not easy.

好在先锋的债券都是机构级品质。

Thankfully, Vanguard bonds are institutional quality.

这意味着全线产品都属于顶级水准。

That means top grade products across the board.

先锋能够覆盖各种行业、期限和地域，因此能发现并抓住其他人可能错过的投资机会。

Vanguard is able to invest across all kinds of sectors, maturities, and geographies, which means they can spot and act on opportunities that others might miss.

去 vanguard.com/audio 看看吧。

So check out vanguard.com/audio.

就是 vanguard.com/audio。

That's vanguard.com/audio.

所有投资都存在风险。

All investing is subject to risk.

先锋营销公司，分销商。

Vanguard Marketing Corporation distributor.

这儿冷得够呛。

It's freezing in here.

怎么回事？

What gives?

我在保持产品的新鲜度呢，尼尔。

I'm trying to preserve my freshness, Neil.

就像iHerb那样，他们在通过GMP、ISO和NSF认证的温控仓储中心存储和处理保健品和运动产品，确保有效成分不流失、产品品质有保障。

Like how iHerb stores and handles their supplements and sports products in GMP ISO and NSF certified climate controlled fulfillment centers designed to protect potency and product integrity.

这样你就不会收到化掉的软糖维生素了。

That way, you don't get melted gummy vitamins.

托比，这套办法只适用于保健品和运动产品，不适用于

Toby, that only works on supplements and sports products, not

而且iHerb对每笔订单都负责。

And iHerb stands behind every purchase.

如果产品达不到你的期望，他们提供便捷的退货和简单的退款服务。

If something doesn't meet your expectations, they make it right with easy returns and simple refunds.

去 iherb.com/mbdaily，使用代码 MB Daily，享受八折优惠。

Head to iherb.com/mbdaily and use code MB Daily for 20% off your purchase.

就是 iherb.com/mbdaily。

That's iherb.com/mbdaily.

Toby，要是我告诉你，你每月最大的开销其实能变成一大好处呢？

Toby, what if I told you your biggest monthly expense could be a huge boon?

你是说买标本能给我带来好处？

I could get a boon from buying taxidermy?

不是，Toby。

No, Toby.

是住房。

Housing.

Built 是一个针对你居住地的会员服务，每次支付房租或房贷都能累积积分。

Built is the membership for where you live that rewards you with points on every housing payment.

无论是租客还是房主，都能赚取积分，兑换联合航空、凯悦酒店的机票，Lyft 打车券，亚马逊购物券，还有很多其他福利。

Renters and owners can earn points to use towards flights with United and Hyatt, Lyft rides, amazon.com purchases, and so many more.

Built 的会员还能享受专属社区管家服务。

Built members also get access to a neighborhood concierge.

他们可以帮您订餐厅、预约健身课程，还能发现附近的新去处。

They can make restaurant reservations, book fitness classes, and find new local spots.

详情请访问 joinbuilt.com/mbd。

Check it out at joinbuilt.com/mbd.

就是 joinbuilt.com/mbd。

That's joinbilt.com/mbd.

欢迎来到本周末赢家环节，我和托比选出了两件比长期煎熬的尼克斯队球迷还要开心的事。

Welcome to winners of the weekend, the segment where Toby and I picked two things that had an even better weekend than long suffering Knicks fans.

我赢了节目前的擂台赛，所以由我先来。

I won the pre show cage match, so I get to go first.

我的赢家是 SpaceX，它成功完成了历史上规模最大的 IPO，让创始人埃隆·马斯克成为全球首位万亿富翁。

And my winner is SpaceX, which successfully pulled off the biggest IPO in history and made its founder Elon Musk the world's first trillionaire.

周五早上，华尔街还担心，如此空前规模、募资高达七百五十亿美元的上市，会把整个金融系统的运转给搞瘫了。

Coming into Friday morning, Wall Street was anxious that a public listing of this unprecedented size raising $75,000,000,000 would break the financial machinery that keeps markets humming.

但一切进展得再好不过了。

But things went as well as they possibly could.

SpaceX在中午前不久于纳斯达克上市，股价比135美元的发行价高出11%。

SpaceX began trading on the Nasdaq a little before noon at 11% above its IPO price of $135 a share.

到收盘时，股价上涨了19%，市值达到21000亿美元，成为全球第六大上市公司。

By the end of the day, it had risen 19% to close at a valuation of $2,100,000,000,000, making it the sixth largest public company.

这对埃隆·马斯克来说真是极大的安慰——2002年，他用卖PayPal的钱创办这家太空公司时，曾被人嘲笑是异想天开。

It is sweet sweet vindication for Elon Musk who in 2002 was mocked for starting an experimental space company with the proceeds of his PayPal sale.

周五，马斯克的净资产突破了1万亿美元，成为人类历史上首位身家达到这一数字的人，其他人根本没法比。

On Friday, Musk's net worth rose above 1,000,000,000,000 to become the first human in history worth that much, and no one else is even close.

如今，马斯克的财富超过了全球第二到第五大富豪的总和。

Musk is now richer than the next four wealthiest people in the world combined.

SpaceX最终能否成功，还得看马斯克能不能实现他的科幻愿景——在轨道上建造AI数据中心，并在火星上建立殖民地。

SpaceX will ultimately be judged on whether Musk can execute his sci fi vision to build AI data centers in orbit and establish a colony on Mars.

但至少在这一天，他完全可以宣称自己赢了。

But at least for one day, he can claim victory.

所以我最近在读彭博社的马特·莱文，他提到这次IPO的定价方式挺特别的。

So So I was reading Bloomberg's Matt Levine, he was talking about the interesting way this IPO was priced.

通常来说，公司上市前，投行会花大量时间收集订单，再根据市场需求调整发行价。

So normally, when a company goes public, bankers spend a lot of time gathering orders and then tweaking the IPO price based on the demand that they are seeing.

但SpaceX跳过了大部分这个流程。

But SpaceX skipped much of that process.

埃隆直接从一开始就定死了135美元一股的发行价。

Elon basically said the IPO is a $135 a share from the start.

有对冲基金经理告诉《金融时报》，埃隆就是直接进来，说了个价格。

One hedge fund executive told the Financial Times, Elon just came in and said what the price was.

根本没做价格发现，结果他猜得准得惊人。

There was no price discovery, and he turned out to be pretty dead on.

IPO涨20%左右是最理想的，既能让投资者赚到钱，又不会让公司白白留下太多钱。

A 20% pop is exactly what you're looking for with an IPO because you're making money for investors without leaving too much money on the table.

这次正好就是这种情况。

That's exactly what happened here.

但这也正是像SpaceX这样坚持私有24年的公司会遇到的情况。

But also this is what happens when a company stays private for twenty four years like SpaceX did.

在这整个期间，SpaceX的股票其实一直在私人交易平台上市交易。

SpaceX shares have been trading on private marketplaces for that in basically the entirety of that time.

其中一个平台Hive的报价大约是每股136美元。

One marketplace, Hive, had SpaceX trading at around a $136 a share.

另一个平台的报价则是每股128美元。

Another had a $128 a share.

换句话说，IPO的定价正好落在了私人市场早已反映出来的水平上。

So in other words, the IPO price landed exactly where the private markets were indicating that they were.

这让我们对未来的IPO定价机制有了一个很有趣的观察——过去，IPO才是大家第一次试图弄清一家私营公司到底值多少钱的时刻。

So just a fascinating look into how IPO price discovery might go looking forward because traditionally the IPO was the moment where people are like, what is this private thing actually worth?

但现在看来，早在进入公开市场之前，市场就已经很清楚它的价值了，这可能会改变上市首日股价暴涨的模式。

Now it looks like we know what it was worth far before it ever reaches the private market, so it might change how these pops happen on the first day of trading.

是的。

Yeah.

OpenAI 和 Anthropic 计划今年秋天上市。

OpenAI and Anthropic are about to go public in the fall.

它们在参考 SpaceX 的做法，觉得这套方案太成功了，自己也想照着来。

They're looking at what SpaceX did and saying, we want to do execute that playbook because it worked out so well.

整个过程比任何人想象的都要顺利。

It's went smoother than anybody could have ever imagined.

像 Anthropic 和 OpenAI 这样的万亿级科技公司，都在盯着 SpaceX 的做法，大概率会效仿。

So Anthropic and OpenAI, these other huge $1,000,000,000,000 plus tech companies are looking at what SpaceX did, they're probably gonna use that as a model.

接下来 SpaceX 上市第三天、第四天、第五天，甚至第一百天的表现会非常值得观察，毕竟上周五它的表现已经非常亮眼了。

It's gonna be very interesting to see what SpaceX does on its third, fourth, fifth, a hundredth day of trading because obviously, it had a great day on Friday.

今天早上股价又涨了6%。

It's up 6% so far this morning.

我们还在争论特斯拉，它都上市十多年了，现在我们又要对 SpaceX 这样反复讨论。

We are not gonna see the we we still debate this about Tesla, and it has been public for over a decade, and we're gonna do this with SpaceX.

看多的和看空的，两边都有。

We got the bulls and the bears.

CFRA研究公司的高级分析师基思·斯奈德持强烈看空态度。

The bears are out in full for CFRA research senior analyst Keith Snyder.

他周五表示，即便这次IPO表现不错，SpaceX要想支撑起二十万亿的估值，其收入增长目标也简直荒谬到可笑。

He said on Friday, even after this good IPO, that the revenue growth that SpaceX would need to achieve to back up this $2,000,000,000,000 valuation is quote, borderline comical.

而另一方面，埃隆·马斯克本周末在X上说，他预计到2030年——也就是四年之后——SpaceX的年收入将达到一万亿美元。

And then you had Elon Musk on the other hand on x this weekend saying that they're gonna reach he expects to reach 1,000,000,000,000 in annual revenue by 2030, which is four years from now.

很多人都在说，你是不是该把这事儿写进招股说明书？这可是重大的信息更新。

People are like, maybe you should have put that in the IPO prospectus because that's kind of a material change that you're making.

所以接下来SpaceX会怎么走，确实值得观望。

So it'll be interesting to see what SpaceX does going forward.

埃隆·马斯克已经非常富有，但他还能变得更富有。

Elon Musk is very rich and he could could become even richer.

他在SpaceX有一份最高可达一万亿的薪酬方案，但前提是完全达成特定条件。

He has this he has this compensation package at SpaceX worth up to $1,000,000,000,000, but that is entirely contingent.

除非SpaceX市值达到七万五千亿，并且在火星上建立永久性人类殖民地，人数不少于一百万，否则他一分钱都拿不到。

He will see zero of it unless SpaceX becomes a $7,500,000,000,000 company and there is a permanent human colony on Mars with at least 1,000,000 people.

我现在对埃隆说的任何话都不再怀疑了。

I'm done doubting anything we hear out of Elon at this point.

但我还是想看看埃隆原话是怎么说的，他说太空探索技术公司有可能在2030年实现大约……

I do feel like I need to read the exact quote from Elon where he says, I think SpaceX might be able to reach approximately Okay.

一百亿美元的年收入。

$1,000,000,000,000 in revenue by 2030.

如果最后没达到那么高的目标，这个‘大约’可就有点儿打圆场了。

That approximately might be doing some heavy lifting if it comes in a little short of that lofty goal.

我这个周末的赢家是纽约尼克斯队。

My winner of the weekend is your New York Knicks.

周六，尼克斯队击败了马刺队，赢得NBA总冠军，结束了长达五十三年的痛苦与心碎，场面格外动人。

Fifty three years of pain and heartbreak came to an end in cathartic fashion on Saturday when the Knicks defeated the Spurs to win an NBA championship.

整个纽约城瞬间像电影里的场景一样。

It turned New York City into a scene from a movie.

数十万真球迷和跟风人群涌上街头，看着弗兰克·辛纳屈放烟花，爬到任何能站上去的高处。

Hundreds of thousands of real fans and bandwagoners alike mingled in the street, seeing Frank Sinatra lighting off fireworks and climbing onto any elevated surface they could find.

每个消防梯上都挤满了兴奋的观众，很多人利用独特的视角和投影仪，在大楼外墙上办起了即兴的观赛派对，音乐声此起彼伏。

Every fire escape was laden down with delirious onlookers blasting music after many used their unique vantage points and projectors to host impromptu watch parties on the sides of buildings.

这支球队身上，完全体现了纽约市那种不屈不挠的精神。

The team itself evoked the spiritual resilience of the city of New York.

整个系列赛中，尼克斯队领先的时间只有23.6%，这是自1971年以来冠军球队中最低的领先比例，据埃利亚斯体育局的数据。

The Knicks led for just 23.6% of the series, the lowest time spent leading by a champion since 1971 according to Elias Sports Bureau.

他们的明星球员杰伦·布伦森，把这种逆袭者的气质发挥得淋漓尽致。

Their star player, Jalen Brunson, channeled that underdog nature.

他是在第二轮被选中的，之前效力的独行侠队放走了他，也一直没人把他当回事，觉得他个子太矮，不适合打控卫。

Drafted in the second round, he was allowed to walk by his previous team, the Mavericks, and had been continually overlooked as an undersized guard.

但布伦森早有打算——他在上一份合同谈判中主动放弃了超过一亿美元的收入，只为给尼克斯腾出薪资空间，签下两位他在维拉诺瓦大学时的队友。

But Brunson had a plan that leaving over $100,000,000 on the table in his last contract negotiation to give the Knicks the roster flexibility to bring on a supporting cast that included two of his teammates in college at Villanova.

布伦森的冒险，以及大家对他的信任，最终都得到了回报，现在他们成了冠军。

The gamble by Brunson and on Brunson paid off, and now they are champions.

尼尔，哪怕你不是尼克斯球迷，不是篮球迷，甚至根本不喜欢体育，你也无法否认——半个世纪的冠军荒，最终在全世界最大的媒体舞台上终结，这故事太精彩了。

Neil, even if you're not a Knicks fan, not a basketball fan, or even a sports fan, you can't deny that a half century title drought ending in the biggest media mark in the world is a fun storyline.

是的。

Yeah.

尼克斯，五冠了。

Knicks and five.

他们真的把这事儿给实现了。

They they manifested it.

这是纽约十四年来首个真正意义上的顶级职业体育冠军。

It's the first, you know, so called major professional sports championship in New York in fourteen years.

自由人队拿过WNBA冠军，纽约城足球俱乐部也在2021年赢过MLS杯。

The Liberty have won for in the WNBA and the New York City FC have won for the MLS Cup in 2021.

但在四大职业体育联盟里，尼克斯是十四年来第一支夺冠的球队。

But in terms of the big four sports, the Knicks are the first in fourteen years.

而且有人提到，他们其实没有和其他球队抢球迷。

And as some have pointed out, they don't really share a fan base with another team.

抱歉了，布鲁克林篮网，但在纽约，球队太多，球迷早就分散了。

I'm I'm sorry Brooklyn Nets, but in New York, there are so many teams that the fan bases are generally split.

还有喷气机队和巨人队。

There's the Jets and the Giants.

还有洋基队和大都会队。

There's the Yankees and the Mets.

但那一晚，那一段季后赛征程，整个城市都凝聚在了一起，那种兴奋简直无法形容。

And for one night and for one playoff run, all of the city came together, And it was just it was just euphoria.

我从来没见过这样的场面。

I've never seen anything like it.

我当时简直像在做梦，根本不敢相信自己真的身在纽约，亲眼看着这么盛大的庆祝活动爆发。

I was having a pinch me moment because I could not believe that I was actually in the city when you see one of these massive celebrations break out.

我那会儿在餐厅里看比赛，可一听到消防警报响，大家立刻冲上街头，因为都知道别人也一定会这么做。

So I was watching it at a restaurant, but as soon as like the fire buzzer buzzer sounded, you just ran out into the streets because you knew everyone else was going to do the same.

那种感觉就像一群僵尸跟着本能移动，谁也不清楚该去哪儿，可突然间，所有人都朝着麦迪逊广场花园涌去——还能去哪儿呢？

And it was sort of kinda like this zombie herd mentality where no one really knew where to go except all of a sudden everyone just started moving towards Madison Square Garden because what are you supposed to do?

这时候，你自然就往圣地去了。

You just move towards the Mecca at this point?

人们爬东西的样子，我真是头一回见。

People were trying to climb stuff like I've never seen.

说实话，我从来没经历过这种夺冠狂欢的氛围。

Again, I've never been part of kinda like this championship atmosphere.

我压根没想到，有人一看见灯泡，就真往上爬。

I didn't know that as soon as someone sees a light bulb, they they try to go up it.

这种事确实会发生。

It absolutely happens.

我和我未婚妻在街上瞎转悠。

My fiance and I were wandering around.

她被一个长得像佐兰·马姆达尼的人骗了。

She got duped by a Zoran Mamdani lookalike.

那 guy 虽然就是个留胡子的普通人，但在人群里简直成了名人。

That guy was a celebrity in the crowd even though he was just a guy with a beard.

连车都跟着嗨起来了。

Cars were actually loving it.

这个我也没见过。

That was something I didn't see as well.

出租车司机被人群围得水泄不通，结果他们还爬到车顶上去。

Taxi drivers are just completely mobbed by humanity, but they're getting on top of their cars.

他们还在拼命按喇叭。

They're honking their horns as well.

西村那边简直疯了。

West Village was nuts.

这种经历太特别了，你懂的，亲身经历一座城市为冠军狂欢的时刻。

It was just a very unique experience, you know, live in a city when a championship like that happens.

是的。

Yeah.

还是说回NBA吧。

The NBA for the just bring it back to the NBA.

连续八届冠军都是不同的球队。

That's eight different champions in a row.