美国接管委内瑞拉石油产业及比亚迪电动汽车销量超越特斯拉

最优秀的B2B营销往往浪费在了错误的人身上。

The best b to b marketing gets wasted on the wrong people.

在哪个可能的世界里，我需要那袋重达七磅的芥末豌豆，而社交媒体却一直向我展示它？

In what possible world do I need the seven pound bag of wasabi peas that social media is obsessed with showing me?

要触达正确的专业人士，请使用LinkedIn广告。

To reach the right professionals, use LinkedIn ads.

LinkedIn已经发展成为一个拥有超过1.3亿决策者的网络。

LinkedIn has grown to a network of over 130,000,000 decision makers.

你可以根据职位、行业等精准定位你的买家。

You can target your buyers by job title industry and more.

在你的首个广告活动中花费250美元，LinkedIn甚至会在你的下一次活动中赠送你250美元的广告额度。

Spend $250 on your first campaign, and LinkedIn will even give you a $250 credit on your next one.

只需访问 linkedin.com/mbd。

Just go to linkedin.com/mbd.

那就是 linkedin.com/mbd。

That's linkedin.com/mbd.

条款和条件仅适用于LinkedIn广告。

Terms and conditions apply only on LinkedIn ads.

早上好，Brew Daily Show。

Good morning, Brew Daily Show.

我是尼尔·弗莱曼。

I'm Neil Fryman.

我是托比·霍威尔。

And I'm Toby Howell.

今天，为什么保障委内瑞拉的石油供应并不容易。

Today, why securing Venezuela's oil supply won't be easy.

接着，加利福尼亚推出了一项新税，其亿万富翁们正大发雷霆。

Then California has a new tax up its sleeve, and its billionaires are throwing a fit.

今天是1月5日，星期一。

It's Monday, January 5.

让我们出发吧。

Let's ride.

早上好。

Good morning.

回来了，新年快乐。

Back and Happy New Year.

我能这么说吗？

Can I say that?

不管怎样，假期过后又能出现在你的耳中，我和托比都对2026年即将带来的一切感到无比兴奋。

Either way, it's great to be in your ears once again after the holiday break, and Toby and I are super excited for what 2026 has in store.

在进入新闻之前，托比，我需要你提供几样东西，帮我们了解你假期的时光。

Before we get into the news, Toby, I'm gonna need a couple things from you to help us learn about your time off.

告诉我们你吃过的最好的东西、看过的最好的节目，以及读过的最好的内容。

Tell us the best thing you ate, the best thing you watched, and the best thing you read.

吃过的、看过的、读过的。

Ate, watched, read.

好的。

Okay.

明白了。

Got it.

我吃过的最好的东西是用马蒂·马森的食谱做的胡萝卜肉桂卷。

Best thing I ate, I made these carrot cinnamon rolls from Matti Matheson.

绝对美味。

Absolutely delicious.

听起来可能不太诱人，但胡萝卜能中和甜度，这对肉桂卷来说是个很棒的特点。

Doesn't sound delicious, but carrots kinda mellow the sweetness, which is a great thing when it comes to cinnamon rolls.

我看过最好的东西，我尽了我的责任。

The best thing I watched, I did my duty.

我看了《马蒂至高无上》，但那不是最好的。

I watched Marty Supreme, but that was not the top.

我必须选《激烈竞争》，讲的是两位冰球对手逐渐成为，嗯，超越朋友的关系。

I have to go with heated rivalry, which is about two hockey rivals who become, let's say, more than friends.

非常激烈。

It is very intense.

我就说这么多。

That is all I'll say.

其实，我还没说完。

Actually, that is not all I'll say.

我最后警告一次：别和你父母一起看这个。

Do not watch this with your parents is my final warning.

最后，关于阅读，今年我在读经典作品。

And then finally for reading, I'm hitting the classics this year.

我已经读了《兄弟》一百页了。

I'm a 100 pages into the brothers.

是陀思妥耶夫斯基的《卡拉马佐夫兄弟》。

Karamazov by Dostoevsky.

这本书很厚。

It is thick.

这本书很厚。

It is thick.

所以我在这方面已经尽力了。

So I'm doing my best there.

我说过，如果你真的读完这本书，我会付你100美元。

I said I would pay you a $100 if you actually finish that book.

我会说快点。

I'll go quickly.

我在墨西哥瓦哈卡时吃过的最好吃的东西是莫莱酱，当你在那里时，早餐、午餐和晚餐都必须吃莫莱酱，它太美味了。

The best thing I ate while I was in Oaxaca, Mexico, and when you're there, you just have to eat mole for breakfast, lunch, and dinner, And it is so delicious.

所以我90%的时间都在吃莫莱酱，另外10%的时间我是在接错电话。

So I am 90% mole and the other 10% I am missed call.

我强烈推荐大家去那里。

I highly recommend people go there.

看，我最近有点迷上阿尔丰索·卡隆了。

Watch, I am kind of on an Alfonso Cuaron kick.

他是一位墨西哥电影导演。

He's a Mexican filmmaker.

所以我看了《它妈妈也是》和《人类之子》，两部优秀的电影。

So I watched Itu Mama Tambien and Children of Men, two excellent films.

另外，别和你的父母一起看《它妈妈也是》。

Also don't watch Itu Mama Tambien with your parents.

他拍完那部电影后，接下来拍的是《哈利·波特与阿兹卡班的囚徒》，风格上有很大的转变。

After he did that movie, the next movie he did actually was The Prisoner of Azkaban, kind of a different tonal shift.

我读过的最好的书是《索尼娅与桑尼的孤独》，这又是一本厚书。

And the best thing I read was The Loneliness of Sonya and Sunny, which is another thick book.

它有670页，但我还是读完了。

It's 670 pages, but I did finish it.

这本书是过去一年才出版的，是一本极佳的读物。

It just came out in the past year, and it's an excellent book.

大家来发表意见。

The people weigh in.

谁的假期更有文化气息？

Who had a more cultured break?

我最喜欢的肉桂卷是尼尔配莫尔和瓦哈卡的。

Me cinnamon rolls are Neil with mole and Oaxaca.

我觉得我们都做得不错。

I think we both did pretty well.

现在让我们听听赞助商Rubrik的广告。

And now a word from our sponsor Rubrik.

尼尔，AI代理就像那个打高尔夫球的朋友，仿佛在争取进入美国公开赛的席位。

Neil, AI agents are kind of like that friend who hits a golf ball like they are making a case for a spot at the US Open.

强大、不可预测，偶尔还会把东西打到不该去的地方。

Powerful, unpredictable, and occasionally just launching things where they don't belong.

你好，Sandtrap。

Hello, Sandtrap.

这就是为什么Rubrik Agent Cloud如此改变游戏规则。

And that's why Rubrik Agent Cloud is such a game changer.

它是唯一一个能让你监控、管理和回溯AI代理操作的平台，防止它们把敏感数据打到停车场里。

It's the only platform that lets you monitor, govern, and rewind AI agent actions so they don't smack sensitive data into the parking lot.

它在后台持续监控，为您提供全面的可见性、可执行的防护措施、实时风险评分，以及能在几分钟内修复错误的回滚功能。

It's constantly watching in the background giving you full visibility, enforceable guardrails, real risk scoring, and a rewind that fixes mistakes in minutes.

医院和银行依赖它，因为它们无法承受失控的AI行为。

Hospitals and banks rely on it because they can't afford rogue AI drives.

使用Rubrik Agent Cloud后，人们对于让AI代理实际执行任务的担忧大大减少了。

Using Rubrik Agent Cloud has made people way less nervous about letting AI agents actually do things.

如果您的业务依赖AI代理，您就需要能够监控、管理和回滚它们的操作。

If your business relies on AI agents, you need the ability to monitor, govern, and rewind their actions.

目前，我们的听众可以独家提前访问Rubrik Agent Cloud。

Right now, our listeners get exclusive early access to Rubrik Agent Cloud.

前往 rubrik.com。

Head to rubrik.com.

那就是 rubrik.com，rubrik.com。

That's rubrik.com, rubrik.com.

新年伊始，新闻周期并未缓和，而是以‘The U’拉开了2026年的序幕。

Well, the news cycle did not ease its way into 2026 as the new year kicked off with The U.

S.

S.

试图在委内瑞拉推动政权更迭，而石油是这个惊人故事的核心。

Attempting regime change in Venezuela and oil is at the center of this stunning story.

周六清晨，美军发动了一场历时数月策划的大规模突袭，俘虏了委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗及其妻子。

Early Saturday morning, US military forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife in a wide scale raid that took months of planning.

他们目前被关押在曾关押过迪迪和SBF的著名布鲁克林监狱，面临毒品贩运指控。

They now face drug trafficking charges while being held in the same notorious Brooklyn jail that housed Diddy and SBF.

委内瑞拉左翼副总统、马杜罗盟友德尔西·罗德里格斯现已担任该国事实上的领导人，全世界都在高度不确定中观望事态发展。

Venezuela's leftist vice president and Maduro ally, Delsi Rodriguez, is now serving as the country's de facto leader as everyone around the world watches, with great uncertainty, what happens next.

对特朗普总统而言，接下来将是美国公司大规模开采石油。

For President Trump, what comes next is a large scale oil extraction by American companies.

周六的新闻发布会上，特朗普表示：我们将让美国规模庞大的石油公司——世界上最大的石油公司——进入委内瑞拉，投入数十亿美元，修复严重破损的石油基础设施。

In a press conference on Saturday, Trump said, we're going to have our very large United States oil companies, the biggest anywhere in the world, go in, spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken infrastructure, the oil infrastructure.

委内瑞拉的石油基础设施确实严重破损。

Venezuela's oil infrastructure is indeed badly broken.

它拥有全球已探明的最大石油储量。

It sits on the largest proven oil reserves anywhere on the globe.

价值达3030亿桶，占世界总储量的17%。

303,000,000,000 barrels worth or 17% of the world's total.

然而，多年的疏于维护和管理不善，导致委内瑞拉每日仅能产出80万桶石油。

However, years of neglect and mismanagement have led Venezuela to eke out just 800,000 barrels per day.

相比之下，美国每天的产量高达1380万桶。

Compare that to the 13,800,000 barrels per day produced by The United States.

除了雪佛龙之外，大多数西方石油公司因多次国有化浪潮被驱逐出委内瑞拉，最近一次发生在2007年。

Most Western oil companies, except for Chevron, do not operate in Venezuela after waves of nationalization booted them out of the country, most recently in 2007.

特朗普正在冒险一搏，许多人认为这是非法的。

Trump is making a bold gamble and many say an illegal one.

随着马杜罗被推翻，它们将重返委内瑞拉，但开发这座金矿绝非易事。

They'll return now that Maduro has been ousted, but tapping this gold mine will not be easy or simple.

你说得对，尼尔。

You are right, Neil.

我们根本没有逐步进入这个新闻周期。

We did not ease into this news cycle at all.

我记得在周末新闻刚爆出时给你发消息，说我们周一有话题要聊，那我们就来谈谈吧。

I remember messaging you on the weekend when this news broke that we're gonna have something to talk about on Monday, so let's talk about it.

委内瑞拉确实依赖油轮将其石油运往全球。

Venezuela does depend on oil tankers to get their oil out into the world.

目前，除了没收马杜罗的资产外，美国还阻止了30艘油轮运送石油，这对委内瑞拉经济造成了毁灭性的财政影响。

And right now, there is in addition to, you know, seizing Maduro, The US is blocking 30 tankers from kind of delivering oil, which has a crippling fiscal impact on Venezuela's economy.

马尔科·卢比奥表示，这正是美国目前对委内瑞拉施压的杠杆。

And Marco Rubio says that is actually the lever that The US is putting pressure on Venezuela right now.

他的原话是：这使我们能够对这个国家接下来的发展施加巨大影响。

His quote was that it allows us to exert tremendous leverage over what happens next in the nation.

因此，与其像特朗普所建议的那样直接接管该国，看起来这种石油封锁将成为美国迫使委内瑞拉就范的主要手段。

So rather than taking control of the country outright like Trump has suggested, it does look like this oil quarantine is going to be the chief way that The US, you know, kind of pushes Venezuela to its will.

话虽如此，全球石油市场将会发生什么？

That being said, what is gonna happen to the global oil market?

我们知道这会影响委内瑞拉的石油市场，但封锁并不像人们预期的那样会对全球市场造成严重负面影响。

We know this is gonna affect Venezuela's oil market, but the blockade is not necessarily expected to adversely affect the global market as much as you might expect.

委内瑞拉约80%的石油实际上是在黑市上出售的，因此它对整体市场并非主要贡献者。

Around 80% of Venezuela's oil is actually sold on the black market, so it's not a massive contributor to the market as a whole.

中国和俄罗斯是其最大的客户，但中国可以相对容易地替代委内瑞拉的石油供应。

China and Russia are its biggest customers, but China can kinda replace Venezuela's barrels pretty easily.

这将重创委内瑞拉经济，但目前石油市场专家们认为，这并不会像人们预期的那样造成巨大的供应冲击。

So it will devastate the Venezuelan economy, but right now, oil market experts are kinda looking at it and saying it's not gonna be this massive supply hit that you might expect.

但特朗普对美国石油公司有更宏大的计划，希望它们重返委内瑞拉——这些公司曾在几十年前被驱逐，当时正值七十年代和九十年代的国有化浪潮。

But Trump has grander designs for American oil companies to go in back to Venezuela where they operated for many decades before they were kicked out during these waves of nationalization in the seventies and nineties.

像埃克森和美孚（合并前）、海湾石油和康菲这样的公司，当年委内瑞拉作为全球主要石油强国时，都在那里拥有庞大的业务。

Companies like Exxon and Mobile before they were merged and Gulf Oil and Conoco, they all had huge presences as in Venezuela when Venezuela was in a huge oil powerhouse on the global stage.

从五十年代到八十年代，委内瑞拉曾是世界上最富有的国家之一，因为它曾是全球最大的石油出口国之一。

It was actually one of the richest countries in the world from the fifties to the eighties because of it was one of the biggest oil exporters on the planet.

某些政府介入并推行了该行业的国有化，这导致了多年的忽视与腐败。

Certain governments came in and created nationalization for this industry, and that led to years of neglect and corruption.

现在，委内瑞拉仅占全球石油出口的1%。

And now Venezuela just produces 1% of all global oil exports.

特朗普总统希望美国公司重返委内瑞拉，索回他们声称被没收的资产。

President Trump wants American companies to go back in there and claim what they say were seized assets.

这些石油公司在国有化之后，有相当一部分起诉委内瑞拉，索赔数十亿美元。

A bunch of these oil companies after this nationalization actually sued Venezuela for tens of billions of dollars.

他们表示，自己获得的赔偿只是应得金额的几分之一。

They say that they were paid pennies on the dollar for what they were owed.

因此，特朗普表示，让埃克森美孚等公司重返委内瑞拉，雪佛龙已经在当地运营，让我们获取更多石油。

So Trump says, let's go back in ExxonMobil and others, and Chevron is already operating there, and let's take more of the oil.

这似乎至少是这次惊人突袭所要实现的部分目标。

And that seems to be at least part of parcel of what this stunning raid was meant to achieve.

不过，这种做法背后存在某种讽刺性的张力，让我们来看看石油价格的现状。

There is some kind of ironic tension underneath this approach though, because let's look at the state of oil prices.

2025年，石油价格下跌了20%。

They fell 20% in 2025.

目前，油价交易在大约每桶57美元左右，这对国内石油生产商来说是一个警示或黄色警报。

Right now, oil is trading around, you know, $57 a barrel, which is a kind of a warning or a yellow warning light for domestic oil producers.

这个价格并不一定能让它们以很高的利润出售石油。

It is not necessarily a price that they can sell oil very profitably at.

因此，市场一直在应对这种供应过剩的问题。

And so the market has been dealing with this supply glut.

有一些油轮装满了石油，却几乎没有愿意购买的买家。

There's tankers, you know, that are just sitting full of oil with not a lot of willing buyers.

所以特朗普说，嘿。

And so Trump is saying, hey.

我们现在想在另一个国家增加更多石油产能，继续钻探，钻探，再钻探。

We want to actually start bringing online more oil capacity where we want to drill baby drill in another country now.

这真的是石油市场所需要的吗？

Is that necessarily what the oil market wants?

这只会向市场增加更多的供应。

That would just put more supply onto the market.

所以这里有点令人困惑，但我查看了今天早上新闻公布后石油公司的交易情况。

So there is a little bit of a head scratching here, but I looked at how oil companies are trading this morning after the news.

瓦莱罗在盘前交易中上涨了8%。

Valero is up 8% in premarket.

雪佛龙上涨了7%以上。

Chevron is up over 7%.

因此，我认为投资者确实对这些公司是否能再次进入这个有利可图的市场感到好奇。

So I do think there is some investor curiosity on whether they will get access to this valuable market once again.

是的。

Yeah.

大多数专家在观察当前情况后表示，我认为美国石油公司不会急于重返委内瑞拉。

Most experts looked at what's going on and said, I don't think that American oil companies are going to be jumping to go back into Venezuela.

第一，是因为油价水平以及石油供应过剩。

Number one, because of where oil prices are and because of the glut of oil.

其次，是因为修复这些破败基础设施所需的资金量巨大。

The other is just the amount of capital that is going to be needed to repair this dilapidated infrastructure.

一些估计显示，咨询公司Reistat Energy指出，仅在勘探和生产方面的资本支出就需要1100亿美元，才能使委内瑞拉的产量恢复到十五年前的水平——1100亿美元。

Some estimates, Reistat Energy, a consultancy, said that $110,000,000,000 in capital expenditure in exploration and production alone would be needed to bring Venezuela's output back to where it was just fifteen years ago, $110,000,000,000.

此外，还有人力资本的问题。

And then there's the facet of human capital.

近年来，由于该行业陷入混乱，许多石油行业的工程师和其他人才已经离开委内瑞拉。

So many of engineers and other talented people in the oil industry in Venezuela have left in recent years because this industry has gone to shamble.

因此，未来几年需要大量的专业知识和物流支持来修复这些系统，才能让委内瑞拉重新成为石油市场的重要参与者，但考虑到目前油价低于门多萨线（60美元），这似乎遥不可及，委内瑞拉的前景仍是一个巨大的问号。

So you need a lot of know how and logistics that need to be repaired in the coming years to actually make Venezuela a significant player on the oil stage, which seems to be a far fetched, especially at oil prices below the Mendoza line right now at $60 So a huge question mark about what is going to be happening in Venezuela.

看起来政权依然稳固，因为马杜罗的二号人物仍在掌权。

It looks like the regime is still in place because Maduro's number two is still in charge.

我们不知道未来会发生什么，但我们会持续向您更新进展。

We don't know what's going to happen, but we will keep you updated.

我们继续往下说。

Let's move on.

加利福尼亚打算向其最富有的居民征收‘午餐钱’，而他们并不高兴。

California wants to take some of its wealthiest residents lunch money, and they are not happy.

有人提议对加州估计的255位亿万富翁一次性征收5%的财富税。

A one time 5% wealth tax has been proposed on California's estimated 255 billionaires.

请注意，我说的是财富，而不是收入。

Notice I said wealth, not income.

这意味着，这项税收——目前尚缺乏足够的签名以列入11月选票——不仅适用于超级富豪们赚取的收入，还涵盖他们企业的价值、股票、债券、艺术品、收藏品和知识产权。

That means the tax, which still doesn't have the necessary signatures yet to appear on the November ballot, doesn't just apply to the bacon that the ultra rich are bringing home, but also the worth of their businesses, stocks, bonds, art, collectibles, and intellectual property.

这种税收能筹集多少资金？

How many Gitas would a tax like this raise?

尽管难以确定确切的收入数额，但起草该提案的医疗保健工会估计，它可能筹集高达1000亿美元。

While it's difficult to determine exact revenue, the health care union that crafted the measure estimates that it would raise up to a $100,000,000,000.

但这只是一个大大的假设，因为亿万富翁们可能会改变行为以减少税负，而他们的大部分财富与股价挂钩，股价波动不定，使得精确数字难以确定。

But that's a big if because billionaires may change their behavior to reduce exposure, and much of their wealth is tied to stock prices, which fluctuate, making it hard to pin down an exact number.

一次性征收这笔税的初衷，是将部分数十亿美元重新分配给那些生活困难的领域，特别是医疗保健。

The idea behind the one time ding is to reallocate some of the billions to areas where people are struggling, namely health care.

该税收产生的收入中，90%将用于医疗保健，其余10%用于食品援助和教育。

90% of the revenue generated by the tax would go towards health care with the remaining 10% spread to food assistance and education.

这项政策被定位为对共和党大规模美丽税与支出法案的回应，该法案在未来十年内包含约1万亿美元的医疗补助削减。

The policy is being framed as a response to Republicans' big beautiful bill tax and spending law, which includes around $1,000,000,000,000 in Medicaid cuts over the next ten years.

尼尔，这里存在一场重大争议。

Neil, there is a big debate here, though.

如果你对亿万富翁征收这样的税，他们会直接离开吗？

Are billionaires just gonna leave if you hit them with a tax like this?

但这件事有趣的地方在于，它将追溯适用于2026年1月1日在加州居住的亿万富翁，即使该法案在2026年11月的投票中才获得通过。

Well, what's interesting about this thing is that it would retroactively apply to billionaires living in California on 01/01/2026, even if it is approved on the ballot in November 2026.

因此，根据报道，最近几天，许多亿万富翁都在试图将户籍迁出加州。

So you had all of these billionaires, according to reports, trying to establish residency outside of California in the last few days of December.

彼得·蒂尔在洛杉矶有诸多业务，据报道称，他在迈阿密开设了一家办公室。

Peter Thiel, who has a lot of things going on in Los Angeles, said he opened or reports show that he opened an office in Miami.

大卫·萨克斯目前在特朗普政府任职，同时也是一位投资者，他已在德克萨斯州开设了办公室。

David Sachs, is now in the Trump administration, also an investor, opened an office in Texas.

谷歌联合创始人拉里·佩奇是另一个试图将资产分散到海外的知名亿万富翁，以避免在加州若通过这项一次性征税措施时被波及。

Larry Page, the Google co founder, is another one of those big billionaire names that is trying to diversify their assets abroad so they're not hit with this one time tax in California if this ballot measure is approved in November.

因此，你看到富豪们为了减轻这项 ballot 措施通过后可能带来的税务影响而展开了一场大规模的抢跑行动。

So you saw a huge scramble by billionaires to try to mitigate their tax incidents if this ballot measure would be approved later this year.

同时，也有同等数量的富豪在网上愤怒地抨击加州立法者，尤其是代表硅谷的罗·卡纳。

And there was an equal number of billionaires upset online going after California legislators, especially Ro Khanna, is the representative of Silicon Valley.

他们就这项具体法案在埃克森公司内部爆发了激烈争执。

They got into a huge spat on Exxon over this particular bill.

而一个重大问题是，富豪们是否真的会如他们所说那样因这项税收而离开。

And there is a huge question of whether billionaires will actually leave as they say they will because of this tax.

是的。

Yeah.

让我们深入探讨核心争议。

Let's dive into the core debate.

支持者表示，过去六年里，亿万富翁的财富几乎增长了三倍。

Supporters of the tax say that, hey, billionaire wealth has nearly tripled in the last six years.

他们承担得起收入顶部5%的税负。

They can afford the 5% hit to their top line.

这不会影响他们的生活方式。

It's not gonna affect their lifestyles.

这不会影响他们的消费或支出。

It's not gonna affect their consumption or spending.

当你考虑到他们近期财富的增长幅度时，这其实只是一小部分。

It really is a small amount when you think about how much their wealth has grown in recent times.

但批评者认为，如果你开始逼迫这些人离开本州，你可能会失去最高税收基础，因为富裕居民理论上完全可以像你所解释的那样，带着硅谷的许多知名人士一起搬走。

But critics arguments say that, hey, you're risk losing your highest tax base if you start pushing these people to other states because wealthy residents could hypothetically just pack up and leave as you explained with a lot of Silicon Valley high profile people.

州长加文·纽森表示，他过去曾因这些相同原因反对财富税。

Gavin Newsom, the governor, has said he's previously opposed wealth taxes for much of those same reasons.

但如果你深入研究其他州实施的一些政策，也许这些人并不会像许多人担心的那样逃离。

But if you actually dig into some policies that have happened in other states, maybe they wouldn't abscond like a lot of people are fearing.

先前的研究表明，百万富翁通常不会仅仅因为减税而搬迁。

Prior studies have showed that millionaires don't typically relocate just for tax cuts.

马萨诸塞州于2023年对百万富翁征收了4%的税。

Massachusetts introduced a 4% tax on millionaires in 2023.

实施后的两年内，百万富翁人口增长了近39%。

The millionaire population rose nearly 39% in the two years after it was enacted.

所以简单来说，你选择住在某个地方有很长一串原因。

So just plain and simple, there are a long list of reasons why you live in the place that you live.

我的意思是

I mean

加利福尼亚的天气比马萨诸塞州好。

And California has nicer weather than Massachusetts.

天气确实好得多。

It is a lot nicer weather.

而且实际上，它的体育队伍也更强。

It's got better sports teams too, actually.

但关键是，高净值人群因税收原因搬家的可能性，比你想象的要小。

But the bottom line is high wealth individuals are less likely to move for tax reasons than maybe you would expect.

欢迎来到本周末赢家环节，我和托比将挑选两件比霍兰德和罗森诺夫在更衣室里更有趣的事情。

Welcome to winner of the weekend, the segment where Toby and I pick two things that are having more fun than Hollander and Rosenoff in the locker room.

我赢得了赛前比赛，赢的是谁的嘴唇更干裂，所以我先来。

I won the preshow contest of who has more chapped lips, so I get to go first.

我的胜者是股市，它无视了关税、泡沫担忧和经济悲观情绪，创下又一个非凡的年份。

And my winner is the stock market, which swatted away tariffs, bubble fears and economic gloom to record another fantastic year.

随着2025年正式结束，标普指数上涨了16%，纳斯达克上涨了20%，道琼斯指数上涨了13%，期间多次刷新历史高点。

With 2025 now in the books, the S and P rose 16%, the Nasdaq 20% and the Dow 13%, setting more record highs along the way.

这使得股票连续三年实现两位数增长，并且标普指数在七年内有六年至少上涨了15%。

That makes three consecutive years of double digit gains for stocks and the sixth year out of seven that the S and P has climbed at least 15%.

这场长期持续的牛市仍由人工智能公司推动，投资者认为它们正在开启下一次工业革命。

This long extended rally continues to be fueled by AI companies, which investors believe are ushering in the next industrial revolution.

根据一项估算，超过90%的

By one estimate, more than 90% of U.

美国

S.

2025年上半年的经济增长来自与人工智能和数据中心相关的计算机设备和软件投资。

Economic growth in the first half of twenty twenty five was accounted for by investments in computer equipment and software tied to AI and data centers.

这使这些公司的股东口袋鼓了起来。

And that lined the pockets of shareholders in those firms.

去年表现最好的十只标普股票中，有七只与人工智能热潮有关。

Seven of the 10 best performing S and P stocks last year were tied to the euphoria around AI.

2026年会带来什么？

What will 2026 bring?

分析师预测，还会获得更多的收益。

Even more gains, analysts predict.

今年标普500的平均目标点位约为7600点，意味着涨幅将达到11%。

The average S and P 500 target for the year is about 7,600 points, implying a jump of 11%.

这反映了人工智能的进一步发展，以及美联储明年将继续降息两到三次，从而降低整个经济的借贷成本。

That's a reflection of more AI advances as well as the Fed continuing to cut rates two to three times next year, lowering borrowing costs across the economy.

托比，这是一个牛市。

Toby, it's a bull's market.

我们正生活在这个牛市中。

We are just living in it.

让我们回溯到去年这个时候的我们自己。

Let's rewind to ourselves at this point last year.

当时分析师们实际上预期市场会稳步上涨。

Analysts were actually expecting pretty steady market gains.

他们预期利率会下调，并且期待特朗普总统营造一个对企业友好的环境。

They were expecting interest rates cuts, and they were expecting a business friendly environment under president Trump.

从技术上讲，我们确实达到了最终结果——股市迎来了丰收的一年，但这一路却远非平坦。

Technically, we did get to that end result, you know, a great year for stocks, but along the way, it was anything but smooth.

我只是想做个‘Spotify Wrapped’式的股市回顾，重温过去这一年。

I do just want to go kind of Spotify wrapped the stock market and relive the year that was.

2025年初，通胀压力仍然时隐时现。

Inflation pressures were still kind of mingling around in early twenty twenty five.

然后出现了深海帽事件，即一家中国AI公司以远低于美国企业的成本开发出了相关技术。

Then deep sea cap in, which was this moment where Chinese AI company developed technology at a much lower cost than US firms.

这引发了巨大的恐慌。

That caused a massive panic.

然后四月份发生了关税冲击。

Then there was the tariff shocks that happened in April.

标普500指数在一周内暴跌了12%以上。

The S and P five hundred plunged more than 12% in one week.

现在回头看，年终涨幅超过16%，说这句话简直太疯狂了。

Like, it is crazy saying that sentence now after ending the year up over 16%.

而且整年里，企业利润也受到了损害。

And then throughout the year too, there was just, you know, corporate corporate profit damage.

这些关税还造成了消费者受损。

There was consumer harm that happened from these tariffs.

所有这些政策都极其不稳定。

All these policies were very unpredictable.

从五月到十月，局势开始逐渐升温。

And then May through October kind of started to heat up a little bit.

关税被推迟了一段时间。

Tariffs were delayed a little bit.

美联储确实实施了人们普遍预期的降息。

The Federal Reserve did come through with those rate cuts that a lot of people were expecting.

而人工智能热潮则推动市场一路前行，从五月到十月，标普500指数每月都创下新高，完全无视了年初出现的种种担忧。

And then, obviously, the AI trade just powered the market through it all, and the S and P 500 hit record highs every month from May through October while it just ignored all the previous fears that surfaced in the beginning of the year.

所以，是的，我们最终到达了目的地，但这一路上确实颠簸不已。

So, yes, we got there in the end, but along the way, it was a bumpy ride for sure.

好的。

Alright.

我们先短暂休息一下，然后回来分享我这个周末的赢家。

We're gonna take a quick break and come back with my winner of the weekend.

想象一下，某天早上你醒来，发现一场巨大的太阳耀斑让每天多出了一小时，或者你的团队一夜之间翻倍，又或者全球出现了回形针短缺。

Imagine you wake up one day and a huge solar flare adds an extra hour to each day, or maybe your team will double in size overnight, or there'll be a global paper clip shortage.

事实上，没人知道未来会发生什么。

The truth is no one knows what's around the corner.

任何事情都可能改变工作世界，而这些变化可能源于内部、外部或全球性的因素。

Anything can change the world of work, and those changes can be due to factors that are internal, external, or global.

从人力资源到薪资和福利，ADP设计了前瞻性的解决方案，以应对未来的任何挑战。

From HR to payroll and benefits, ADP designed forward thinking solutions to take on the next anything.

这意味着企业可以为应对任何可能改变工作世界的新变化做好准备。

That means businesses can prepare to tackle whatever transforms the world of work next.

因为无论你多么决心在不断变化的环境中取得成功，独自应对一切都是不可能的。

Because no matter how determined you are to thrive in a constantly changing landscape, it's impossible to prepare for everything on your own.

ADP的人力资源解决方案帮助各种规模的企业管理招聘、入职、薪资等事务，让你专注于未来。

ADP's HR solutions help businesses of all size manage recruiting, onboarding, payroll, and more so you can stay focused on the future.

了解更多，请访问 adp.com。

Learn more at adp.com.

那就是 adp.com。

That's adp.com.

如今的网络攻击者不需要利用漏洞。

Cyber attackers these days don't need exploits.

他们只会利用你允许的工具来对付你。

They'll just use your allowed tools against you.

因此，ThreatLocker 在执行时默认拒绝所有操作。

That's why ThreatLocker enforces default deny at execution.

这种安全模型能在未知软件、脚本和勒索软件试图运行的瞬间将其阻止。

This security model stops unknown software, scripts, and ransomware the moment it tries to run.

它们还能通过阻止任何未经授权的应用程序或行为运行，帮助您实施零信任策略。

They also help you enforce zero trust by blocking any unauthorized applications or behavior from ever running.

从全球企业到小型IT团队，ThreatLocker 提供了一种切实可行且可执行的安全层，能够阻止未知威胁、缩小攻击面，并帮助企业应对不断演变的威胁环境。

From global enterprises to lean IT teams, ThreatLocker delivers a practical, enforceable security layer that stops unknown threats, minimizes attack surface, and helps companies stay ahead of an evolving threat landscape.

了解更多，请访问 threatlocker.com/morningbrewdaily。

Learn more at threatlocker.com/morningbrewdaily.

那就是 threatlocker.com/morningbrewdaily。

That's threatlocker.com/morningbrewdaily.

尼尔，你喜欢交房租吗？

Neil, do you like paying rent?

这是个严肃的问题吗？

Is this a serious question?

这就像问我是否喜欢拔牙一样。

That's like asking if I like having teeth removed.

你

Which you

我不喜欢，托比。

Do not like, Toby.

我不了解你的生活，但我知道，有了BUILT，付房租的感觉会好一些。

I don't know your life, but I do know paying rent can feel a little better with BUILT.

BUILT是为租客设计的忠诚计划，每月为你提供积分和邻里专属福利。

BUILT is the loyalty program for renters that rewards you monthly with points and exclusive benefits in your neighborhood.

使用BUILT，每次支付房租都能获得积分，可用于兑换航班、酒店、Lyft乘车、amazon.com购物等众多权益。

With BUILT, every rent payment earns you points that can be used toward flights, hotels, Lyft rides, amazon.com purchases, and so much more.

此外，从二月开始，BUILT会员还可以在支付房贷时累积积分。

Plus, starting in February, Built members can earn points on mortgage payments.

你可以在amazon.com、健身课程、Lyft等地方兑换BUILT积分。

You can redeem Built points on amazon.com, fitness classes, Lyft, and more.

前往 joinbuilt.com/mbd 加入租客忠诚计划。

Join the loyalty program for renters at joinbuilt.com/mbd.

那是 joinbilt.com/mbd。

That's joinbilt.com/mbd.

本周末的赢家是食言而肥，因为埃隆·马斯克现在要坐下来享用自助餐了，因为中国电动车制造商比亚迪已超越特斯拉，成为全球最大的电动汽车销售商。

My winner of the weekend is eating your words because Elon Musk is sitting down to an all you can eat buffet now that Chinese EV maker BYD has overtaken Tesla as the world's largest seller of electric vehicles.

让我们倒回到2011年。

Let's rewind to 2011.

埃隆曾公开贬低比亚迪，说：‘你看过他们的车吗？’

Elon publicly dismissed BYD as a serious competitor saying, have you seen their car?

我觉得它并不特别吸引人。

I don't think it's particularly attractive.

技术也不够强大。

The technology is not very strong.

好吧，就像尼尔高中毕业后一样，比亚迪这些年有了很大的蜕变，消费者也注意到了。

Well, like Neil post high school, it's had a bit of a glow up since and customers have taken notice.

2025年，特斯拉首次全年电动汽车销量低于比亚迪，彻底失去了EV冠军头衔。

2025 was the year that Tesla fully lost its EV crown for the first time selling fewer EVs over a full year than BYD.

特斯拉在2025年交付了164万辆汽车，低于2024年的近180万辆。

Tesla delivered 1,640,000 vehicles in 2025, down from nearly 1,800,000 in 2024.

对于一家曾经实现50%年增长的公司来说，这标志着9%的同比下滑。

That's a 9% year over year decline for a company that used to put up 50% growth.

与此同时，比亚迪在2025年全球售出了226万辆电动汽车，较前一年增长了28%。

Meanwhile, BYD sold 2,260,000 electric cars globally in 2025, up 28% from the year prior.

更令人印象深刻的是，比亚迪取得这一成绩时，你很可能从未驾驶过甚至没见过一辆其车型在美国道路上行驶。

Even more impressive, BYD has done this without you likely having driven or even seen one on US roads.

由于高额关税，中国电动汽车实际上被禁止进入美国市场，这意味着比亚迪是在背负一只红白蓝三色手的情况下击败了特斯拉。

Chinese EVs remain effectively banned from The US due to high tariffs, which means it's been beating Tesla with one red, white, and blue hand behind its back.

讽刺的是，考虑到埃隆在2011年的言论，比亚迪如今完全可以将同样的批评回敬给特斯拉。

Ironically, given Elon's talk back in 2011, BUID could probably lob much of the same criticism back at Tesla these days.

特斯拉多年来几乎没有更新其产品线，而它唯一推出的重要新车型——Cybertruck——销量却十分惨淡。

Tesla has not substantially updated its lineup in years, and the only major new model it did unveil, the Cybertruck, has sold poorly.

再加上马斯克的政治立场损害了特斯拉在核心电动车消费者中的品牌形象，这就构成了失去王座的配方。

Throw in Musk's politics that have damaged Tesla's brand among core EV consumers, and you have a recipe for losing your throne.

尼尔，比亚迪是2025年的大赢家。

Neil, BYD was a big winner of 2025.

让我们谈谈特斯拉和比亚迪真正正面交锋的地方——欧洲市场。

Let's talk about where Tesla and BYD do go head to head, is Battleground Europe.

在那里，你可以真正看到权力交接的发生。

And that's where you can see this changing of the guard really take place.

去年，特斯拉在欧洲的注册量下降了39%，而比亚迪的注册量则飙升了240%。

Tesla's European registrations last year fell 39%, while BYD's registrations rose 240%.

在欧洲，特斯拉如今销售的电动车数量已少于大众。

In Europe, Tesla now sells fewer electric cars than Volkswagen.

所以我们知道，比亚迪实际上无法在美国销售汽车。

So we know that BYD can't really sell cars in The United States.

因此，这两者——红白蓝与红白（或仅红色）——正是在欧洲相遇并发生碰撞。

So that is kind of where the two, the red, white, and blue and the red and white or just the red, do meet and and they clash in Europe.

看起来，BYD 在这场战争中取得了胜利，就像在全世界范围内一样。

And it looks like BYD is winning that war there as it is around the world.

每次我们谈论特斯拉时，都不得不这么说：它们实际上已经不再是电动汽车公司了。

The the story every time we talk about Tesla is we have to say like, well, they're not actually an electric vehicle company anymore.

华尔街也不再把它当作一家自动驾驶公司来估值。

Wall Street doesn't value it like in the AV company anymore.

它们非常专注于以机器人出租车和 Optimus 机器人为中心的未来。

They're very much focused on this robotaxi enabled future about their Optimus robots.

它更像是一家人工智能和机器人公司，但仍然拥有庞大的电动汽车业务，而 BYD 击败它绝非偶然。

It's very much an AI and robotics company, but it still does have a hefty electric vehicle business, and it is not just symbolic that BYD trounced it.

顺便说一句，差距根本不是一点半点。

It wasn't even close, by the way.

BYD 在某些季度的电动汽车销量上已经超过了特斯拉，但看到它逐年对比，发现 BYD 完全碾压了特斯拉，特斯拉的核心业务已不再是人们曾经预期的庞然大物。

BYD had beat Tesla over some quarters when it comes to electric vehicle sales, but seeing it put year against year and seeing BYD just absolutely lap it, the core business of Tesla is no longer, you know, the behemoth that many expected it to be.

我记得以前，埃隆曾谈论过每年销售两千万辆电动汽车，这比丰田的销量还要多。

I remember back in the day, you know, Elon was talking about selling 20,000,000 EVs a year, which is, you know, more than Toyota did.

现在这远非人们关注的焦点。

Now that is far from the top of mind.

一切都集中在机器人和人工智能上。

It's all about robotics and AI.

是的。

Yeah.

他们最高时卖出了180万辆汽车。

They peaked at 1,800,000 vehicles sold.

但在过去两年里，这个数字实际上下降了。

And then for the past two years, that's actually declined.

是的，特斯拉收入的四分之三确实来自其电动汽车业务，但股东们的眼光早已超越了这一点，转向了机器人和自动驾驶的未来。

Yes, three quarters of Tesla's revenue does come from their EV business, but shareholders are looking way past that into this robotics and autonomous vehicle future.

如今，埃隆·马斯克和特斯拉在德克萨斯州奥斯汀和湾区已运营机器人出租车服务，并希望在新的一年里扩大这一业务。

Now Elon Musk and Tesla do have a robotaxi service operating in Austin, Texas and in the Bay Area, and they're hoping to expand that in this new year.

特斯拉的股价将完全取决于这一业务的进展。

And Tesla stock will absolutely be riding on how that goes.

好了，各位，来了。

All right, folks, it's here.

这是新年的第一周预览。

Your preview of the first week of the year.

真希望不用做这个，但我们还是开始吧。

Wish I didn't have to do this, but let's dive in.

硅谷的人们来到了赌城，参加全球最大的消费电子展CES。

Silicon Valley is in Sin City for the world's biggest consumer electronics show CES.

每年一月在拉斯维加斯举行的CES，让企业有机会展示那些融合了最新技术的未来 gadgets，即使它们可能还未完全准备好面向大众。

Held in Las Vegas every January, CES gives companies the opportunity to show off futures to gadgets that infuse the latest technology, even if it may not be totally ready for prime time.

今年展会的主要主题是机器人——从泳池清洁机、割草机，到能帮你叠衣服的人形机器人。

The main theme of this year's event, robots from pool cleaners to lawnmowers to humanoids that will fold your laundry.

英伟达的黄仁勋和AMD的苏姿丰今天将发表重磅演讲，拉开盛会序幕。

NVIDIA's Jensen Huang and AMD's Lisa Su will kick off the festivities with big speeches today.

我看了下目前曝光的一些机器人，其中LG的一款让我觉得，我们叠衣服的日子可能真的要结束了。

I was looking at some of the robots teased so far, and one from LG gives me hope that our laundry folding days actually could be coming to the to an end.

它能与你的智能家电同步，但这些家电必须是LG的，才能加载并启动洗衣程序，完成后自动折叠衣物。

It syncs with your smart appliances that do have to be LG to load and start cycles and then fold when they're done.

所以我认为这种一体化的生态系统是可行的。

So I do think that kind of cohesive ecosystem could work.

我还看到了一堆非常糟糕的折叠衣物机器人，所以这真的要看情况。

I also saw a bunch of really bad folding laundry robots, so it really depends.

我只是在看。

I'm I'm just looking

要求其实很低。

at The bar to clear is very low.

我觉得算盘都比我更会叠衣服。

I think an abacus could fold laundry better than I do.

但我真的需要它。

I need it, though.

我真的受够了。

I'm so over.

我从旅行回来后，做这么多洗衣活儿花了好长时间。

I was I came back from, you know, our travels, and it it took so long to do all this laundry.

我看着这些机器人，心想：拜托了。

I just am looking at these robots and going, come on.

你能做到的，LG。

You can do it, LG.

我相信你。

I believe in you.

好吧。

Alright.

我们会持续关注CES上关于这些洗衣折叠机器人的最新消息。

We'll bring we'll definitely bring you updates from CES about those laundry folding robots.

在政府停摆造成的干扰之后，经济数据发布已基本恢复正常，这意味着本周五我们将公布12月的就业报告，不仅反映该月的就业状况，也涵盖整个2025年的就业情况。

Economic data releases have returned mostly back to normal after the disruptions from the shutdown, which means this Friday, we'll get the jobs report for December, presenting the employment situation not only for that month, but for the entire year of 2025.

凯西忘了十一月发生了什么。

Casey forgot what happened in November.

美国新增了6.4万个就业岗位，好于预期，但失业率上升至4.6%，为四年多来的最高水平。

The US added 64,000 jobs better than expected, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6, the highest in over four years.

我甚至都记不清去年年底政府停摆结束后，常规就业数据发布是什么感觉了。

I don't even really remember what it's like having regular jobs reports coming in after the end of last year with the government shutdown.

很高兴你回来了，朋友。

So it's good to have you back, friend.

我就说这么多。

That's all I'll say.

MrBeast 将回归电视荧屏，推出他的热门游戏节目《Beast Games》第二季，该节目由亚马逊出品。

MrBeast is coming back to television for the second season of Beast Games, his hit game show for Amazon.

2024年，全球最大的YouTube创作者成功转型传统娱乐业，第一季成为Prime Video历史上观看人数最多的非 scripted 节目，在上线前25天内吸引了5000万观众。

In 2024, the world's biggest YouTuber made a highly successful transition to traditional entertainment with the first season becoming Prime Video's most watched unscripted show of all time, reaching 50,000,000 viewers in the first twenty five days it streamed.

北卡罗来纳州州长乔什·斯坦对《Beast Games》印象深刻，甚至拨款1500万美元，支持第二季在该州拍摄。

North Carolina governor Josh Stein was so impressed that he even gave Beast Games a $15,000,000 grant to film the second season in the state.

我看了第一季，如果你

I watched the first season if you

很多人确实看了。

A lot of people did.

是啊。

Yeah.

有五千万人看了。

50,000,000 people did.

我认为在剧情、戏剧性和质量上，它介于《火线》和《黑道家族》之间。

I would say it's a cross between The Wire and The Soprano in terms of plot and just drama and quality.

它很有趣。

It is entertaining.

如果你只是想找点纯粹的、无脑的娱乐，那就打开《 Beast Games》吧，我想。

And if if you're literally looking for just an injection of sheer mindless entertainment, you know, turn on Beast Games, I guess.

好吧。

Alright.

大学橄榄球季后赛的漫长赛程将再进一步，通过半决赛决定全国冠军的对阵组合。

College football's marathon of a playoff will take two steps closer to handing out the trophy with semifinal games determining the national championship matchup.