华尔街因“抛售美国”而震动，贝莱德首席执行官称资本主义已失效

早上好，Brew Daily Show。

Good morning, Brew Daily Show.

我是尼尔·弗莱曼。

I'm Neil Fryman.

我是托比·霍威尔。

And I'm Toby Howell.

今天是Sell America Trade Back On。

Today is the Sell America Trade Back On.

然后，黑石集团首席执行官拉里·芬克在达沃斯演讲中抨击了资本主义。

Then the Black Rock CEO Larry Fink roasted capitalism during his speech at Davos.

今天是1月21日，星期三。

It's Wednesday, January 21.

我们出发吧。

Let's ride.

托比，今天几号？

Toby, what's the date today?

我刚刚才说过。

I literally just said it.

今天是1月21日。

It is January 21.

哦，可能吧。

Oh, might be.

我在这儿瑞士没带我的《晨间 Brew》每日桌面日历。

I don't have my Morning Brew daily desk calendar with me here in Switzerland.

这几乎是我知道今天是几号的唯一方式。

It's basically the only way I know what day it is.

桌面日历？

Desk calendar?

再说详细点。

Say more.

是的。

Yeah.

所以 Morning Brew 为 2026 年做了一个以游戏为主题的桌面日历。

So Morning Brew has this games focused desk calendar for twenty twenty six.

每一天你都会得到一个新的游戏、问答、填字游戏和谜题，而且都非常棒，因为你知道为什么吗？

Each day of the year, you'll get a new game, trivia, crosswords, puzzles, and they're all really great because guess what?

我参与了它的制作。

I helped put it together.

这是在自我宣传啊，尼尔。

Self promo, Neil.

不。

No.

这个日历真的非常好。

This calendar really is great.

把它放在你的书桌上，或者放在床头柜上。

Put it on your desk, put it on your nightstand.

如果你有厨房岛台，我羡慕死了，但你也可以把它放在那里。

If you have a kitchen island, I'm jealous, but you can also put it there.

如果你想给自己或别人一份高效拖延的礼物，就去 shop.morningbrew.com 看看尼尔的作品吧。

If you wanna give yourself or someone else the gift of a productive way to procrastinate, head to shop.morningbrew.com to see Neil's handiwork.

去看看吧。

Check it out.

真的很有意思。

It's really fun.

接下来是我们的赞助商 Indeed 的广告。

And now a word from our sponsor, Indeed.

尼尔，人工智能改变了你的工作方式吗？

Neil, has AI changed the way you work?

现在我不再直接问你问题，而是问我的AI驱动的Tobii机器人：你为什么这样？

Well, now instead of asking you questions directly, I ask my AI powered Tobii bot questions like, why are you like this?

你为什么这么问？

Why do you ask?

我们这一周正在达沃斯的世界经济论坛上，与Indeed一起探讨人工智能如何影响就业、转变技能以及雇主的采纳情况。

Well, we're here at the World Economic Forum in Davos this week along with Indeed who are diving into things like how AI impacts jobs, transform skills, and employer adoption.

Indeed 将分享有关全球劳动力市场的实时洞察，帮助领导者应对未来面临的劳动力挑战与机遇。

Indeed will be sharing real time insights like that into the global labor market and how leaders can navigate the workforce challenges and opportunities ahead.

他们还通过 Indeed 的全球劳动力市场与劳动力趋势报告，帮助商业领袖和招聘专业人士深入理解这些观点。

They're also helping business leaders and hiring professionals dive into these perspective through Indeed's global labor market and workforce trends report.

这份报告还涵盖了就业机会增长的领域、技能短缺与错配如何影响企业绩效，以及移民模式如何塑造劳动力供给。

This report includes also where job opportunities are growing, where skill shortages and mismatches could impact business performance, and how immigration patterns are shaping workforce capacity.

这些洞察共同帮助领导者为未来做好准备，并基于实时数据做出更明智的劳动力决策。

Together, these insights help leaders prepare for what's next and make better workforce decisions grounded in real time data.

了解更多，请访问 indeed.com/davos。

Learn more at indeed.com/davos.

网址是 indeed.com/davos。

That's indeed.com/davos.

昨天真的让红白蓝三色染上了红色。

Yesterday really put the red in the red, white, and blue.

由于特朗普总统坚持收购格陵兰，投资者对美国公司的安全性感到不安，美国资产迎来了自去年四月以来最糟糕的一天。

American assets had their worst day since last April as president Trump's insistence on acquiring Greenland unnerves investors over the safety of USA Inc.

标普500指数经历了四个月来最糟糕的一天，下跌超过2%，抹去了2026年全部涨幅。

The S and P 500 had its worst day in four months, dropping more than 2% and erasing its entire gain for 2026.

科技股拖累了整个指数，七大巨头股每一只至少下跌了1%。

Tech dragged the index lower with each member of the magnificent seven falling at least 1%.

美元兑一篮子其他货币走弱。

The dollar fell against a basket of other currencies.

黄金——抱歉又老生常谈了——飙升至历史新高。

Gold, sorry for being a broken record, surged to a new record.

国债价格暴跌，导致收益率上升。

And treasury bonds tumbled sending yields higher.

这次抛售打破了股市长期的平静局面，而此前几周股市基本无视了重大的地缘政治动荡。

The sell off broke a long spell of calm in the stock market, which had largely brushed off major geopolitical upheaval in recent weeks.

当美国突袭逮捕委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗时，市场无动于衷；当美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示自己正接受刑事调查时，市场也置若罔闻。

It shrugged when The US captured Venezuela's president Nicolas Maduro in a surprise raid, and also ignored when Fed chair Jerome Powell said he was under criminal investigation.

但过去几天的事件似乎引起了投资者的注意。

But the events of the past few days seem to have caught the attention of investors.

特朗普总统威胁称，除非丹麦将格陵兰岛出售给美国，否则将于2月1日起对八个欧洲盟友征收关税，而欧盟已誓言将采取一系列经济反击措施。

President Trump threatened eight European allies with tariffs come February 1, unless Denmark sells Greenland to The US, and the EU has vowed to respond with an economic barrage of its own.

托比，重要的是要强调，当前正在发生一场巨大的转变。

Toby, it's important to emphasize just how big of a shift is occurring right now.

历史上，当局势变得动荡时，投资者往往会涌向美国资产，将其视为风暴中的灯塔。

Historically, when things get hairy, investors flock to the safety of American assets, a lighthouse in the tempest.

在这些充满不确定性的日子里，他们正在撤回对美国的投资。

In these uncertain days, they're yanking their American investments.

有些人认为，这标志着世界经济秩序的根本性转变。

Some say it marks a profound shift in the world economic order.

是的。

Yeah.

或许最能体现这一转变的象征，就是一家大型丹麦养老基金正在实时出售美国国债。

Maybe the best emblematic emblem of that shift is the fact that a large Danish pension fund is literally selling US treasuries right now.

他们因金融担忧而售出了价值一亿美元的国债。

They sold a $100,000,000 because of finance concerns.

投资主管表示，这一决定是基于对美国债务危机中美国政府财政状况不佳的担忧。

The investing chief says the decision was driven by what it sees as poor US government finances in America's debt crisis.

这种情况可能会超越这个丹麦养老基金的个例，因为从全球范围来看，一亿美元并不算多——虽然这么说听起来有点奇怪，但在美国国债的背景下确实如此。

And this is something that could spat spread beyond just this one Danish pension fund because a $100,000,000 in the grand scheme of things isn't a lot of money, which feels weird to say, but it's true in terms of US treasuries.

桥水基金的雷·达利奥昨天对CNBC表示，如果主权财富基金不再将美国视为稳定的贸易伙伴，它们也可能开始抛售美国资产。

Bridgewater's Ray Dalio told CNBC yesterday that sovereign wealth funds could start to also sell US investments if they stop seeing US as a stable trading partner.

这正是当今世界许多国家对美国的看法——不是一个稳定的贸易伙伴。

That is absolutely how a lot of the world sees US right now, not a stable trading partner.

是的。

Yeah.

我们只能猜测，这究竟是一个短暂现象，还是更长期的转变。

And we just have to wonder whether this is a blip or a more long term shift.

一项新的花旗银行调查刚刚发布，该调查针对投资者进行了调研。

A new Bank of America survey is out front that surveys investors.

他们目前的乐观情绪是自2021年7月以来最强的。

They remain the most bullish they have since July 2021.

近一半的受访者表示，他们没有任何应对股市急剧下跌的保护措施。

Nearly half of participants said they don't have any protection against a sharp fall in equity prices.

我们已经讨论过‘抛售美国’这个话题。

We've talked about Sell America.

这并不是我们第一次讨论‘抛售美国’。

This isn't the first time we're talking about Sell America.

我们去年四月在解放日时就谈过，去年也多次提到过，但2025年到底发生了什么？

We talked about about it last April during Liberation Day and a few times last year, and yet what what did happen in 2025?

股市飙升至历史高点，企业盈利强劲，人人都对人工智能充满期待。

Stocks surged to record highs, corporate earnings were strong, everyone's very excited about AI.

这似乎压倒了全球投资者对美国资产安全性和稳定性的任何疑虑。

It seems like that sort of outweighed any uncertainty that global investors have about the safety and certainty of American assets.

你不得不想，什么时候大坝会崩溃？

You just have to think about, like, when will the dam break?

我认为这里真正的问题是，特朗普会不会再次退让？

I think the real question here is does Trump back down again?

因为从历史上看，他对债券市场对他的政策的反应非常敏感。

Because historically, he's been pretty sensitive to how the bond market responds to his policies.

他显然也关注股市，并喜欢引用它作为证明其议程有效的证据。

He also clearly looks at the stock market and loves citing it as evidence that his agenda is working.

就在四月份，他真的撤回了其解放日关税，原因是债券市场开始变得有点不安。

Back in April, literally, he backed down from his Liberation Day tariffs because, quote, the bond market started getting a little yippy.

目前债券市场确实有点不安，我想强调的是，过去几个月一直是非常平静的时期。

The bond market is certainly a bit yippy right now, and I do want to just hammer down the point that this has been a extremely calm period of months.

正如你提到的，那些本可能引发动荡的因素都没有发生。

As you mentioned, all those things that could have roiled the sheep ship didn't.

过去一个月，美国债券、股票和美元的波动率降至1990年以来的最低水平。

Volatility across US bonds, equities, and the dollar over the past month had sunk to the lowest level since 1990.

所以，尽管存在诸多动荡，我们实际上正处于一个历史性的平静时期。

So literally, we were in a historic period of calm despite all the turbulence.

现在，也许投资者终于意识到了当前局势的现实。

Now maybe it looks like investors have woken up to the reality of what's going on.

是的。

Yeah.

这可能不是最令人兴奋的事情，但最值得关注的资产可能是十年期国债收益率。

It may not be the most exciting thing, but probably the one asset to watch is the ten year yield.

它自9月2日以来首次升至4.3%。

That reached 4.3% for the first time since September 2.

收益率持续攀升，意味着美国民众和美国政府的借贷成本也会随之上升。

The higher that keeps climbing, the higher borrowing costs are for Americans and the US government.

如果收益率继续攀升至进入‘不安’区间，我们可能会看到特朗普退让。

And if that keeps climbing to levels that get into the yippy zone, then we'll see maybe Trump back off.

目前看来，全球投资者普遍认为美国和欧洲最终会在格陵兰问题上达成某种协议。

Seems right now that global investors think that generally The United States and Europe will come to some sort of agreement over Greenland.

不会发生入侵，因为今天早上我们看到股市期货已经上涨，略微转绿。

There won't be an invasion because right now we saw in in the morning just the stock market futures are up and a little bit into the green.

所以，我们可能要经历几周甚至几个月的波动。

So we may be in for a few bumpy days and weeks.

特朗普今天下午在达沃斯的演讲肯定会成为头条新闻。

And Trump's speech later today at Davos is definitely gonna make headlines as well.

接下来，达沃斯世界经济论坛的一个主要特色是，首席执行官和商业领袖们会面对大量递到他们面前的麦克风。

Moving on, one of the main features of the World Economic Forum here in Davos is that CEOs and business leaders get a lot of microphones shoved in their faces.

你猜怎么着？

And what do you know?

他们总会说出一些惊人的话。

They say the darndest things.

昨天一早，贝莱德首席执行官拉里·芬克就猛烈批评了这场会议本身，称对许多人来说，这次会议与当前的时代脱节了。

The sound bites started early yesterday when BlackRock CEO Larry Fink tore into the conference itself saying, for many people, this meeting feels out of step with the moment.

在民粹主义时代，精英们；在制度信任严重缺失的时代，一个既有的机构——这种批评是有道理的。

Elites in an age of populism, an established institution in an era of deep institutional distrust, and there's truth in that critique.

芬克的话很有分量。

Fink's words carry weight.

他不仅是全球最大的资产管理公司的领导者，去年还在长期领导者克劳斯·施瓦布卸任后接过了财富管理的重任。

Not only is he the leader of the largest asset manager in the world, but he also took over running the wealth last year after its longtime leader Klaus Schwab stepped down.

但芬克并没有就此罢休。

But Fink didn't stop there.

他还抨击了资本主义本身，表示尽管自柏林墙倒塌以来创造的财富比人类历史上任何时期都多，但在发达经济体中，这些财富集中在远少于任何健康社会所能长期维持的人群手中。

He also tore into the concept of capitalism itself, saying that despite more wealth being created since the fall of the Berlin Wall than at any other time in human history, quote, in advanced economies, that wealth has accrued to a far narrower share of people than in any healthy society can ultimately sustain.

尼尔，他一边抨击自己现在主持的这场会议，指责其富豪自我陶醉，一边又警示财富分配不均的危险，真是双重打击。

Neil, one two punch of going in on the conference he now runs for its billionaire navel gazing, while also warning of the perils of unequal wealth distribution.

他确实掀起了不小的波澜。

He's certainly rocking the boat.

对于一家管理着14万亿美元资产的投资公司的首席执行官来说，说出‘这种资本主义根本行不通’，确实非常震撼。

Certainly really striking for the CEO of an investment firm that manages $14,000,000,000,000 in assets to say, look, this capitalism thing, it's not really working.

但正如夏季四号的莉兹·霍夫曼指出的，他说得没错，因为过去二十年里，达沃斯论坛对世界走向的判断一直错误。

But as Liz Hoffman of Summer Four points out, he's kind of right because Davos has been wrong consistently about the world it's heading for much of the last two decades.

她回溯到2008年，当时一位经济学家在达沃斯的一个小组会上说，世界经济衰退是不可想象的，重复一遍，不可想象。

She goes back to twenty two thousand eight when an economist got up at a panel here in Davos and said, it is inconceivable, repeat, inconceivable to get a world recession.

我再重复一遍，那是2008年。

I'll just repeat, that was in 2008.

到了2010年代中期，没人能预见英国脱欧、MAGA运动，以及随后在2020年兴起的民粹主义浪潮。

And then in the mid twenty tens, no one could foreseen Brexit or MAGA or the populist wave that soon followed in 2020.

人们在一月份还在这里举杯，喝着香槟。

People were here in January sipping, you know, sipping champagne.

与此同时，新冠疫情即将成为一件大事。

Meanwhile, COVID was gonna become a big thing.

所以没错，达沃斯一贯总是滞后于时代，从未站在前沿。

So yes, consistently Davos has always been sort of backwards looking and has not been on the front edge.

我认为，拉里·芬克在担任这一职务之初，也在进行大量的自我反思，意识到：这件事真的不太行了。

And I think Larry Fink, as he's coming into this role, is doing a lot of navel gazing himself and reflecting and saying, look, this thing is not really working.

资本主义。

Capitalism.

他还提到了人工智能，认为它可能成为加剧不平等的推手。

And he also mentioned AI because he thinks it could be an inequality accelerator.

他说，嘿。

He's saying that, hey.

这些人工智能风险实际上可能会重复现有的不平等模式。

These AI risks could actually repeat the same existing inequality patterns.

他的原话是：如果人工智能对白领工人造成的冲击，就像全球化对蓝领工人造成的冲击一样，我们今天就必须直接面对这个问题。

His direct quote, if AI does to white collar workers what globalization did to blue collar workers, we need to confront that today directly.

显然，人工智能现在主导了达沃斯论坛，因此他是在提醒我们，这里需要采取行动，我们需要弄清楚在这个人工智能时代，繁荣意味着什么。

Obviously, AI is dominating Davos right now, so he was calling attention to the fact that we need a call to action here, we need to figure out what prosperity means going forward in this age of AI.

人们之所以关注拉里·芬克的言论，原因之一是他确实是贝莱德的首席执行官，而贝莱德是全球最大的资产管理公司。

And one reason why people pay attention to Larry Fink like what he says is yes, he he's the CEO of BlackRock, is the biggest money manager in the world.

他们几乎对任何你想到的上市公司都有重大持股。

They have a big stake in pretty much any public company you can think of.

只要他打电话，首席执行官们都会接起电话。

When he calls, the CEOs are gonna pick up the phone.

从经济角度看，他可能是世界上幕后最具影响力的操盘手。

He may be the most influential puppet master behind the scenes in the in the world in terms of the economy.

因此，他在全球各大公司董事会中的言论具有极大的分量。

So what he says carries a ton of weight in boardrooms across the world.

我们的下一个引述来自Anthropic首席执行官达里奥·阿马德，他对谁应该掌握推动人工智能革命的‘镐和铲子’发表了强烈看法。

Our next quote comes from Anthropic CEO Dario Amade who had some strong thoughts on who should get their hands on the picks and shovels fueling the AI revolution.

在达沃斯讲话时，阿马德表示，将最先进的英伟达芯片出售给中国是一个重大错误，甚至会带来更大的国家安全风险。

Speaking at Davos, Amade said selling the most advanced Nvidia chips to China is a massive blunder with even bigger national security implications.

阿马德对彭博社表示，把这些芯片运出去将是一个巨大的错误。

It would be a big mistake to ship these chips, Amade said to Bloomberg.

我觉得这太疯狂了。

I think this is crazy.

这就像把核武器卖给朝鲜。

It's a bit like selling nuclear weapons to North Korea.

他的评论正值特朗普政府放松向中国出口芯片的限制，允许英伟达向北京出售其H200处理器。

His comments come as Trump has moved to ease restrictions on sending chips to China, allowing NVIDIA to sell its h 200 processors to Beijing.

这正是阿马德长期以来一直在强调的观点。

This is a drum that Amade has been beating for a while.

去年在达沃斯，他表示他担心的是‘1984式’情景，甚至更糟。

Last year at Davos, he said he was worried about, quote, nineteen eighty four scenarios or worse.

他在谈论乔治·奥威尔笔下的反乌托邦极权世界。

Talking about the dystopian totalitarian world from George Orwell.

这家伙真会造金句啊，尼尔。

Dude knows how to generate some quotes, Neil.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，他确实震惊了全场。

I mean, he absolutely shocked the crowd.

其中一个原因是，他直接点名了英伟达。

And one reason why is he went in on Nvidia.

几个月前，英伟达宣布计划向Anthropic投资高达100亿美元。

Well, what happened a few months ago is Nvidia said it was going to invest up to $10,000,000,000 in Anthropic.

这两家公司之间的财务联系非常紧密，就像所有AI公司之间在财务和其他方面都彼此高度关联。

The financial ties between these companies are very close just like all AI companies have a lot of connections financially and otherwise with each other.

他却偏偏要针对英伟达，说你们这儿完全搞错了。

Just so to go after Nvidia and say, think you're extremely wrong here.

把H200芯片卖给中国是一个重大的国家安全问题，这相当于在我们目前领先的AI竞赛中，帮他们一把，这个问题如此关键、如此重大，这简直是巨大的战略失误。

This is a huge national security issue that you're going to sell these h 200 chips to China is like basically giving them a leg up in the AI race that we are currently winning and the issues are so paramount are so big that this is a huge strategic mistake.

他的一种说法是，AI芯片本质上就是认知，或者说就是智能。

One way he framed it is that AI chips are essentially cognition or essentially intelligence.

他说，这样做相当于把一整个国家的天才装进数据中心，运送到中国。

He said that doing this is essentially like shipping a country of geniuses in a data center to China.

你绝不会把自己的最聪明的人交给中国这样一个直接的地缘政治对手。

You would never give your smartest people over to your direct geopolitical enemy in China.

因此，他所作的类比就是，这些芯片是新时代的大脑。

And so that is the equivalence that he makes is that these are the brains of the new era.

既然我们完全没必要这么做，为什么还要把它们送给中国呢？

Why are we giving them to China when we absolutely do not need to be doing that?

最后，我还想提一下一个有趣的达沃斯动态。

Finally, there's also a funny Davos update that I want to mention.

市场上出现了一种非官方或假冒徽章的热销现象，黑市价格几乎达到1200美元。

There's been a hot market for off label or fake badges with street prices fetching nearly $1,200.

大多数人在出售进入美国之家的权限，这是美国代表团在达沃斯的基地。

Most of them are selling access to a USA house, which is the base for The US delegation here in Davos.

美国方面不得不出来警告，禁止出售虚假的VIP通行证，这些通行证承诺可以接触特朗普和斯科特·比森特。

And USA has had to come out and issue a warning about selling fake VIP passes that are pledging access to Trump and Scott Bissent.

完全是假的，但一些亿万富翁似乎真的上当了。

Totally fake, but apparently some billionaires were falling for this scam.

所以这就是为什么你和我，尼尔，这里没有任何徽章或准入权限，当然就是为了避免被骗。

So that is why you and me, Neil, have no badges or access to anything here just to avoid getting scammed, of course.

是的。

Yeah.

看到亿万富翁像我们普通人一样被骗，多少有点幸灾乐祸。

There is a little bit of schadenfreude in in billionaires getting scammed just like the rest of us.

继续说，Netflix可能是世界上迄今为止最有价值的媒体公司，但它想让你知道，它并不是唯一一家在电视领域竞争的公司。

Moving on, Netflix may be the most valuable media company the world has ever seen, but it wants you to know it's not the only television game in town.

在昨天公布财报后，高管们强调，争夺观众注意力的竞争比以往任何时候都更激烈。

After reporting earnings yesterday, executives emphasized that the competition for eyeballs is fiercer than ever.

联合首席执行官特德·萨兰多斯表示，电视领域的竞争从未像今天这样激烈。

Co CEO Ted Sarandos said, the TV landscape has, quote, never been more competitive than it is today.

电视已经不再是我們成長時的樣子了。

TV is not what we grew up on.

如今，電視幾乎涵蓋了一切。

TV is now just about everything.

他补充说，奥斯卡奖和NFL比赛现在都在YouTube上播出。

He added, the Oscars and the NFL are on YouTube.

各大电视网络正在通过传统电视和流媒体同步直播超级碗。

Networks are simulcasting the Super Bowl on linear TV and streaming.

亚马逊拥有米高梅公司。

Amazon owns MGM.

苹果正在争夺艾美奖和奥斯卡奖。

Apple is competing for Emmys and Oscars.

接下来轮到Instagram了。

And Instagram is coming next.

为什么要如此费力地强调竞争？

Why go to such great lengths to highlight the competition?

这一切都是因为Netflix正试图完成对HBO Max所有者华纳兄弟探索公司的830亿美元收购。

It's all because Netflix is trying to close its $83,000,000,000 acquisition of Warner Brothers Discovery, the owner of HBO Max.

萨兰德斯似乎正在演练他将向持怀疑态度的监管机构提出的论点，这些监管机构可能以垄断为由阻止这笔交易。

And Sarandos appears to be workshopping the argument he's gonna be making in front of skeptical regulators who might scuttle the deal on monopoly grounds.

然而，无论Netflix在争夺你的注意力时面对的是谁，它都在获胜。

Still, whoever Netflix is battling for your attention, it's winning.

该公司报告了又一个出色的季度，其订阅用户数增长至超过3.25亿，收入同比增长18%。

The company reported another outstanding quarter with its subscriber base growing to over 325,000,000 and revenue rising 18% year over year.

十二月是令人难忘的一个月。

December was one to remember.

根据彭博社的卢卡斯·肖报道，Netflix在十二月创下了有史以来最高的观看量纪录。

According to Bloomberg's Lucas shot, Netflix posted its best month of viewership ever in December.

这得益于其NFL圣诞节比赛和《怪奇物语》最终季。

Thanks to its NFL Christmas Day games and the final season of Stranger Things.

当月，Netflix的观看时长几乎是迪士尼流媒体服务的两倍。

During that month, Netflix accounted for almost double the viewership of Disney's streaming services.

也许唯一能阻止Netflix进一步全球扩张的，就是监管机构。

Probably the only thing stopping Netflix from even more global domination might be regulators.

真搞笑，他们还说：‘哦，但这并不意味着Netflix。’

It's so funny they're going, oh, but it'll not mean Netflix.

好像我们规模很小似的。

Like, we're so small.

大家都跟我们竞争得厉害。

Everyone is so competitive against us.

但你看看他们刚刚公布的季度业绩。

And yet, you do look at the quarter they just reported.

他们表现得真的非常出色。

They did really freaking well.

但看起来，所有人都在忽视他们实际的财务表现，因为所有人的目光都集中在华纳兄弟探索的这笔交易上。

But it does look like everyone kind of is ignoring their actual financial performance because all eyes are looking at this Warner Brothers Discovery deal.

盘后股价下跌了5%。

Shares were down 5% after hours.

自从宣布收购华纳兄弟探索频道以来，奈飞的日子一直不好过。

This has been a rough go of it for Netflix ever since announcing this acquisition of Warner Brothers Discovery.

他们的股价下跌了超过15%，这与奈飞公司实际的运营状况和财务表现相比，显得非常不寻常。

Their stock has fallen over 15%, which is very decidedly un Netflix y when you when you look at actually what's been happening at the company and their financial performance itself.

看来这只不过是对这场如同乌云般笼罩在他们头顶的重大并购所引发后果的次要考量。

So it does look like this was just an afterthought to what is actually gonna happen with this big merger that is just hanging over them like a black cloud.

奈飞正试图主张，他们只是众多流媒体公司或电视公司中的一员，在这个竞争激烈的市场中争夺观众的注意力。

So Netflix is trying to stake out the argument that they are just one of one of many many streaming companies or television companies seeking attention for your eyeballs that competes in this very competitive market.

也许监管机构或政府会说：不，你们实际上是一家流媒体电视服务公司。

Perhaps regulators or the government is gonna say, no, you actually are a streaming TV service.

你们在和HBO Max、迪士尼+、派拉蒙+竞争。

You're competing against HBO Max, Disney plus, Paramount plus.

你们实际上就是在这一市场中运营。

You are actually operating in that market.

当你看这个特定市场时，如果Netflix仅仅与HBO Max合并，这家合并后的公司在美国市场的份额将超过30%，这可能会引发垄断担忧。

When you look at that specific market, if Netflix were to combine with HBO Max, just HBO Max, the streaming service, they that would put the the combined company over 30% US market share, which would maybe raise monopoly concerns.

但如果你把视野扩大到包括YouTube和现在的Instagram Reels——正如泰德·萨兰多斯提到的Instagram Reels，是因为他们刚刚推出了一款应用，把Instagram Reels放到电视上。

But then if you put it in the bigger market with YouTube and now Instagram reels, said Ted Sarandos mentioned Instagram reels, it's because they just released an app to put Instagram reels on TV.

他想表达的是，我们实际上是在一个比你们认为的要宽广得多的市场中运营。

He's saying we're actually operating in this much wider market than the one that you guys think we are actually operating in.

不过，我还是想深入探讨一下，为什么投资者对这项收购并不热衷，尽管华纳兄弟拥有非常宝贵的IP库。

Still, I do wanna dig into why investors are not so hot on this acquisition even though Warner Brothers is a very valuable, you know, catalog of IP.

很多人认为，华纳兄弟的文化很难与Netflix的文化融合。

A lot of them thinks that it's going to not mesh well with Netflix's culture.

华纳兄弟可能会把一种臃肿、缓慢的运作方式带入一家非常敏捷的公司。

Warner Brothers might bring a bloated slower way of life to a very fast moving company.

此外，Netflix通过从其他内容工作室授权优质内容，已经取得了巨大成功。

Also, Netflix has done very well licensing standout content from other content studios.

那他们现在为什么要改变这种模式呢？

Why do they need to change up that model now?

你为什么突然需要拥有这些知识产权？

Why do you suddenly need to own this IP?

所以，这些就是为什么我说这是一朵笼罩在他们相当不错财务表现之上的乌云，因为它根本与奈飞多年来一贯的做法格格不入。

So these are some of the reasons why I called this a dark cloud hanging over their pretty good financial performance is because it just doesn't vibe with what Netflix has been over the course of its career.

萨兰德斯和他的团队基本上表示，我们可以适应。

Frandos and co have basically said, we can adapt.

我们可以改变。

We can change.

这是一家很棒的电影公司。

This is a great studio.

我们可以进入电影行业。

We can move into the movie business.

我们并不是一个僵化不变的庞然大物。

Like, we're not this inflexible monolith of a company.

我们可以适应，但即便公司业绩表现不错，市场对股价的负面情绪依然强烈，这也是原因之一。

We can adapt, but still that is part of the reason why you're just seeing such bad vibes around the stock right now even as it's doing pretty well as a company.

好的。

Alright.

我们先短暂休息一下，回来聊聊为什么现在没人喝酒了。

We're gonna take a quick break and come back and talk about why no one's drinking alcohol anymore.

现在是我们的晨间饮品每日达沃斯更新，由Lightspeed带来。

Time for our morning brew daily Davos update with Lightspeed.

我们邀请到了Lightspeed的联合创始人兼合伙人Ravi Matra。

We are joined by Lightspeed co founder and partner Ravi Matra.

Ravi，AI话题在达沃斯论坛上无处不在。

Ravi, AI talk is everywhere at WEF.

大多数人甚至称其为一场革命。

Most are even calling it a revolution.

说实话，是炒作、是真实变革，还是两者都有？

Be honest, hype, real deal, or both?

两件事可以同时为真。

Two things can be true at once.

如果你看其底层实质，这是一次自电气化以来规模更大的技术转型投资。

If you look at the underlying substance, it is a larger investment in a technology shift since electrification.

就在过去一年，有四家公司为人工智能所需的计算基础设施投入了近4000亿美元。

We had just in the last year four companies investing almost $400,000,000,000 in the compute infrastructure AI build out.

穆迪预测，到2030年，总投资额将超过3万亿美元。

Moody's is predicting there will be over 3,000,000,000,000 invested by 2030.

这涵盖了计算、数据中心、芯片和电力等多个领域。

And that's across compute, data centers, chips, power.

话虽如此，可能有一部分资金流入了那些在人工智能领域购买和销售产品形成闭环的公司。

So that being said, there's probably some amount of funding that's going in to companies where there's a circularness to what they purchase and what they sell in the AI domain.

人工智能并不是一个真正的市场。

AI is not really a market.

它是一种非常横向的范式转变，智能渗透到众多行业之中。

It is a paradigm shift that is very horizontal and intelligence touches so many industries.

我们认为，这种变革和带来的价值是真实存在的。

We think the the transformation and the value is very real.

谢谢，拉维。

Thanks, Ravi.

确实正在发生一场转变。

There really does seem to be a shift going on.

《Morning Brew Daily》本周全天从达沃斯现场直播，与Lightspeed合作。

Morning Brew Daily is live from Davos all week in partnership with Lightspeed.

请务必访问我们的YouTube频道，观看本周与Lightspeed创始人进行的特别访谈。

And be sure to head to our YouTube channel for special interviews with Lightspeed founders all week.

我们刚刚发布了一期与Proxima Fusion联合创始人兼首席执行官弗朗切斯科·肖蒂诺的访谈，他正致力于用核聚变能源为世界供电。

We just posted one with the co founder and CEO of Proxima Fusion Francesco Shortino, who is trying to power the world with fusion energy.

请持续关注，我们将在世界经济论坛期间陆续发布更多内容。

Keep an eye out as we will be posting more throughout the World Economic Forum.

为酒精行业干一杯，然后再多倒几杯，因为目前烈酒行业的士气很低落。

Pour one out for the alcohol industry and then pour a few more out because spirits are low in spirit right now.

从帝亚吉欧到金巴利，五大上市烈酒集团目前都积压着创纪录的库存，因为根本没人买他们卖的东西。

Five of the biggest publicly traded spirits groups from Diageo to Campari are sitting on record levels of inventory right now as no one is buying what they're selling.

据《金融时报》报道，这些公司 collectively 持有价值220亿美元的产品库存，这是十多年来的最高水平。

Collectively, the group is holding $22,000,000,000 worth of product, the highest inventory levels in more than a decade according to reporting from the Financial Times.

这些库存主要由你小时候父母架子上的那些酒类组成，比如苏格兰威士忌、威士忌、干邑、龙舌兰酒等。

That inventory is dominated by all the stuff that was on your parents' top shelf as a kid, things like scotch, whiskey, cognac, tequila, and more.

但尽管你上高中时可能渴望尝一口，现在情况已大不相同。

But while you may have been clamoring for a taste in high school, that is not the case anymore.

库存积压可以追溯到新冠饮酒热潮期间做出的一些错误决策——当时大幅增加产量，假设烈酒的需求会持续高涨。

The inventory buildup dates back to some poor decisions made to dramatically ramp up production during the COVID era drinking boom, assuming that demand for a stiff drink would remain stiff indefinitely.

但就在生产设施刚投产之际，通货膨胀就开始挤压人们的钱包。

But right as production facilities came online, inflation started to squeeze people's wallets.

人们更加关注健康与养生，消费量开始下降。

A broader focus on health and wellness emerged, and consumption started to wane.

到2024年12月，墨西哥的龙舌兰酒库存已超过5亿升，几乎相当于一整年的产量；而生产商人头马君度的陈酿库存价值超过20亿美元，几乎是其年收入的两倍，接近其整个市值。

By December 2024, Mexico was sitting on over 500,000,000 liters of tequila in inventory, basically an entire year's worth of production, and producer Remy Cointreau is sitting on over 2,000,000,000 worth of maturing inventory, nearly double its annual revenue and close to its entire market cap.

尼尔，业内有很多讨论，认为这种状况是周期性的，需求终将回升，还是结构性的，人们再也不会像以前那样多喝酒了。

Neil, there's a lot of talk in the industry as to whether this is cyclical and demand will come back around or structural and people will never drink as much as they used to.

在一月戒酒期间谈这个话题真是恰如其分。

Fitting to have this conversation during dry January.

我知道。

I know.

这个行业现在真的岌岌可危。

This industry is really on the rocks right now.

不。

No.

你笑不出来。

You can't laugh.

我想，对于那些仍然喝酒的人——虽然人数越来越少——好消息是，似乎即将爆发价格战，因为如果你囤积了这么多库存，而这些库存的价值相当于你整个公司的资产，你就不得不降价来让人购买。

I guess the good the good news for people who still drink which is a dwindling number is that appears that a price war is coming because if you're sitting on so much inventory, you're sitting on inventory that's worth your entire company.

你得降价，才能让人买下这些东西。

You're gonna have to cut prices to get people to buy this thing.

那我们就来看看轩尼诗吧。

So let's just look at Hennessy.

亨尼斯的价格在美国大约是每瓶45美元，但现在已经降到约35美元。所以，如果你是威士忌收藏家或喜欢高档龙舌兰酒，别指望价格会涨，因为现在库存积压，形势对你有利。

Hennessy was priced at about $45 a bottle in The United States, but since they've cut it to about $35, so you're if you are a scotch collector or you like fancy tequila, expect prices to come down because you know, things are turning in your favor with all this inventory sitting around.

一般来说，陈年烈酒是一种特别难管理的库存，因为你必须提前好几年决定要生产多少酒液。

And aging spirits in general are a uniquely difficult type of inventory to manage because you have to decide years in advance how much spirit you want to create.

比如干邑生产商，他们必须现在就把酒液分配到那些计划陈酿两年、四年、十年或十二年的橡木桶中。

Because cognac makers, for example, they have to allocate spirits into casks that are intended for two, four, ten, or twelve years of aging.

想象一下，你现在就得预测十二年后的市场需求会是什么样子。

Imagine having to make a decision now about what demand will be like in twelve years.

这非常困难。

It's very difficult.

而且他们显然在六年前新冠疫情刚开始时就判断失误，现在正为此付出代价。

And they clearly miscalculated, you know, six years ago at the beginning of COVID, and now they are facing the consequences of that.

这就是为什么从库存管理的角度来看，这个行业如此难以掌控。

So that is why this industry is so difficult to manage from an inventory perspective.

因此一些分析师认为，你现在削减产量是个错误，而他们确实在削减产量。

Which is why some analysts are saying, I think it's a mistake for you to cut back production now and they are cutting back production.

吉姆·比姆的主要蒸馏厂至少将停止生产威士忌一整年。

Jim Beams main distillery is stopping to make whiskey for an entire year at least.

有些人看到这一点会说，你对短期趋势的反应过度了，没有着眼于长期。

And some people look at that and say, you are actually responding too much to the short term trends and not looking to the long term.

当然，我们不知道喝威士忌、苏格兰威士忌之类的东西是否会真的回升，但有可能。

Of course, we don't know whether you know drinking whiskey or scotch or things like that will actually come back, but it could.

如果真的回升了，你将面临与现在完全相反的问题——库存严重短缺。

And if so, you're gonna have a huge you're gonna have the opposite problem of what you have now with a huge inventory shortfall.

不过，有一种饮品正在逆势而上，我想特别提一下：世涛啤酒。

One type of drink that is bucking the trend though that I wanna shout out is Stouts.

健力士啤酒正迎来它的高光时刻。

Guinness mainly is having a moment.

它因网飞剧集《健力士之家》而获得了一点流行文化热度，同时也因为TikTok上人们热衷于‘分隔G’的潮流而走红。

It's had a little bit of a pop culture moment from the Netflix series House of Guinness and also just TikTok trends of people trying to split the g.

世涛啤酒曾经一度惨淡至极。

Stouts were so dead in the water.

从2008年到2014年，英国的世涛啤酒消费量减少了五千万升，但从2019年到2024年，英国的世涛啤酒消费量增长了43%。

They dropped 50,000,000 liters per year in consumption from 2008 to 2014, but now stout consumption in The UK rose 43% from 2019 to 2024.

现在世涛啤酒正强势回归，而其他所有饮品都没有这样。

They are just so back in right now, which every other drink is not.

我认为部分原因在于Instagram上那种漂亮的奶油泡沫看起来非常上镜，拍出来很好看。

I think partly because of the Instagram ability of, you know, that nice creamy head that you it just looks good to take a picture of.

而且，喝这种酒感觉物有所值，因为世涛啤酒本身就能让人感觉像吃了一顿完整的饭。

Also, feels like you're getting bang for your buck because, again, this can feel like a complete meal in itself.

所以，尽管烈酒行业表现不佳，但世涛啤酒行业现在却非常兴旺。

So even though the spirits industry is not doing well, the stout industry is quite stout right now.

我觉得喝四杯健力士就像吃了一顿完整的饭，而我正是这种人。

I feel like four Guinnesses is like a complete meal for me, but I am part of that.

几年前我从没喝过健力士，但最近几年，可能受Instagram影响，我开始喝了起来，发现其实味道不错，我也注意到很多朋友也在这么做。

I'd never drank Guinness before the last couple of years, and then maybe I maybe I was influenced by by Instagram, but I started drinking and I was like, this is actually pretty good and I've noticed a bunch of my friends also doing the same.

明白了。

Okay.

让我们用一些最终头条新闻冲刺终点。

Let's sprint to the finish with some final headlines.

如果你住在从德克萨斯到卡罗来纳州的美国南部广大地区，这个周末将非常糟糕。

If you live in a swath of the American South from Texas to The Carolinas, this weekend is going to be a doozy.

从周五开始，气象预报员称之为潜在灾难性的冬季风暴将席卷该地区，主要担忧是结冰。

Beginning Friday, what forecasters are calling a potentially catastrophic winter storm will sweep through the area, and the major concern is ice.

冰层压垮树木和电线。

Ice weighing down trees and power lines.

这将导致停电。

It's a recipe for outages.

如果你遭遇半英寸的冰，或者更糟的是整整一英寸的冰，南卡罗来纳州一家公用事业公司的首席执行官告诉美联社，那将是一场灾难。

If you get half an inch of ice or heaven forbid an inch of ice, one South Carolina utility CEO told the AP, that would be catastrophic.

交通不仅会在路上停滞，空中交通也会瘫痪，因为达拉斯、亚特兰大、夏洛特和孟菲斯等主要枢纽都位于风暴路径上。

Travel could come to a standstill not just on the roads but in the air since many major hubs including Dallas, Atlanta, Charlotte, and Memphis stand in the storm's way.

当恶劣天气席卷南部后，预计将在周日转向东海岸。

Once the horrible weather is done with the South, it's expected to tilt toward the East Coast through Sunday.

我先戴上气象员的帽子，说说究竟是什么导致了这场大规模的潜在冻雨风暴。

I'm gonna put my weatherman hat on for a second and say what is actually driving this massive potential ice storm.

实际上，一股非常庞大且寒冷的北极气团正从加拿大向南移动。

And it really is a very large and very cold Arctic mass of air is coming southward for Canada.

与此同时，来自美国东南部的雨水和湿气正在向上攀升。

At the same time, that rain rain and moisture from the Southeastern United States is moving upwards.

这两股气流在中间相遇，形成了极端的、近乎巅峰级别的冬季天气事件，这就是为什么你们会看到如此严重的警告——毕竟，美国南部各州不像北部各州那样具备应对冻雨的充分准备。

So those two are meeting in the middle, and you have an extreme, almost like peak winter event right there, which is why you are seeing just these warnings of very catastrophic damage because, obviously, southern states in the southern part of the country are not very well equipped to dealing with ice as maybe the Northern states are.

开车时请务必小心。

So be careful if you're driving.

出行时请务必小心。

Be careful if you're traveling.

我们衷心祝愿你们一切安好。

We hope for the best for you out there.

接下来，露露柠檬公司并没有从错误中吸取教训。

Moving on, Lululemon does not learn from its mistakes.

该公司在顾客投诉面料过于透薄后，已将新款紧身裤下架。

The company is pulling a new style of leggings from its shelves after customers complained that the fabric was see through.

这背后蕴含着双重讽刺。

Now this carries with it a double case of irony.

第一，这些瑜伽裤被宣传为‘低强度紧身裤’，专为健身设计。

One, because the yoga pants were branded as get low leggings designed for training.

然而，Reddit上的多个评论指出，这些裤子根本无法防透。

Yet multiple reviews on Reddit complained that the leggings were decidedly not squat proof.

第二，这并非Lululemon首次，甚至不是第二次遭遇透薄紧身裤问题。

Secondly, this is not the first or even the second time Lulu has dealt with a see through legging problem.

就在18个月前，它就因类似问题撤回了‘Breeze Through’系列。

Just eighteen months ago, it had to pull its breeze through line for similar problems.

更著名的是，2013年Lululemon也曾因大量黑色瑜伽裤透薄而召回产品。

And infamously in 2013, Lulu recalled the many of its black yoga pants for being see through as well.

尼尔，这到底是怎么一直发生的？

Neil, how in the world does this keep happening?

这简直难以辩解。

It's kind of indefensible.

听好了，Lululemon，你就干好一件事就行：做出让人锻炼时不会透出身体的裤子。

Like, have one job, Lululemon, make pants that when people use them to work out, they you can't see through.

看起来它根本没从之前一两次的错误中吸取教训。

And it seems like it has not learned from its mistakes once or twice before.

除了透光裤子的问题，Lululemon现在还面临许多其他挑战。

Lululemon's dealing with a lot of challenges right now besides see through pants.

它正面临一场代理权之争，创始人奇普·威尔逊在领英上猛烈抨击现任高管。

It has has a proxy fight on its hand with the founder Chip Wilson who's going on LinkedIn and bashing current the current executives.

它目前甚至没有首席执行官。

It doesn't even have a CEO right now.

它正在寻找一位首席执行官。

It's looking for a CEO.

艾略特管理公司和这家激进对冲基金已收购了10亿美元的股份，并推动变革。

Elliott Management and Activist hedge fund acquired a $1,000,000,000 stake and is pushing for changes.

所以这家公司目前有很多事情在发生。

So there's a lot going on at this company.

我认为这正是它的公关团队最不想看到的情况。

I think this is the last thing that its PR team wants.

最后，我想向你们介绍维罗妮卡，一只13岁、生活在奥地利农场、过着理想生活的小奶牛。

Finally, I wanna introduce you to Veronica, a 13 year old pet cow who lives an idyllic life on an Austrian farm.

但自从昨天起，她就成了自 Mudang 以来最出名的动物。

But after yesterday, she's become the most famous animal since Mudang.

发表在《当代生物学》期刊上的一篇论文揭示了一个令人震惊的发现。

A paper published in the journal Current Biology revealed a startling observation.

维罗妮卡使用了一件工具。

Veronica used a tool.

具体来说，维罗妮卡用一把扫帚来搔挠那些难以触及的身体部位。

Specifically, Veronica used a broom to scratch parts of her body that were hard to reach.

根据研究人员的说法，这是首次通过实验验证的牛类使用工具的案例，进一步丰富了已知的非人类动物使用工具的名单，目前该名单还包括虎鲸、大象、章鱼、乌鸦、狼、鱼类和蚂蚁。

According to the researchers, it's the first experimentally verified instance of cattle using a tool, adding to the growing list of animals other than humans who've used tools, a list that now includes orcas, elephants, octopuses, crows, wolves, fish, and ants.

这并不是牛的干预。

This wasn't bovine intervention.

一位科学家看到了维罗妮卡用扫帚挠痒的视频。

One scientist saw video footage of Veronica scratching herself with the broom.

他们前往农场，亲自查看这只聪明的牛。

They went to the farm to check out this smart cow firsthand.

她没有让人失望。

She did not disappoint.

他们用录像记录了76次维罗妮卡捡起扫帚、用牙齿咬住，然后用工具缓解瘙痒的动作。

They recorded 76 instances on tape of Veronica picking up the broom, securing it in her teeth, then relieving that itchy feeling using the tool.

托比，这表明科学界低估了牛的认知能力。

Toby, this suggests that the scientific community has underrated the cognitive capabilities of cows.

我建议你去观看一段维罗妮卡行动的视频，因为很明显这不是偶然。

I encourage you to go watch a video of Veronica in action because it is so clear it's not an accident.

她非常痒，而且她正是用这把扫帚来挠痒的。

She is very itchy, and she is doing her scratches with this broom.

这篇论文的一位研究者表示，全球大约有15亿头牛，人类与它们共同生活了至少一万年。

One researcher of the paper said there are around 1,500,000,000 heads of cattle in the world, and humans have lived with them for at least ten thousand years.

令人震惊的是，我们直到现在才发现这一点。

It's shocking that we're only discovering this now.

这可能只是人类的疏忽，因为牛通常被描绘成动物界中较愚笨的物种，但我们对许多其他动物物种也做过类似的事。

It maybe has been a case of just oversight from humanity because cows have on average been painted as a dumber species in the animal kingdom, but we've kind of done this with a lot of animal species.

过去没人认为黑猩猩会使用工具，但在1960年，珍·古道尔明确表示：是的，它们确实能做到。

No one thought that chimps could use tools back in the day, but in 1960, Jane Goodall said, absolutely, they can do that.

鸟类世界也是如此。

It happened in the avian world as well.

现在，这种情况已在许多其他物种中发生。

Now it's happened with many other species.

所以，这或许真的只是人类的巨大疏忽，而牛在过去一直用各种东西挠痒。

So maybe it really just has been this crazy oversight, and cows have been scratching themselves with various things over time.

或者，也许维罗妮卡只是一头天才奶牛，她是整个

Or maybe Veronica is just a genius cow, and she's the only one in entire