最高法院会否决特朗普的关税政策吗？ & ChatGPT医生请就位

最好的B2B营销往往浪费在错误的人身上。

The best b to b marketing gets wasted on the wrong people.

在哪个可能的世界里，我会需要社交媒体不断向我展示的七磅重的芥末豌豆？

In what possible world do I need the seven pound bag of wasabi peas that social media is obsessed with showing me?

要触达正确的专业人士，请使用LinkedIn广告。

To reach the right professionals, use LinkedIn ads.

LinkedIn已发展成为一个拥有超过1.3亿决策者的网络。

LinkedIn has grown to a network of over 130,000,000 decision makers.

你可以根据职位、行业等精准定位你的买家。

You can target your buyers by job title industry and more.

在你的首个活动中花费250美元，LinkedIn甚至会在你的下一次活动中赠送你250美元的额度。

Spend $250 on your first campaign, and LinkedIn will even give you a $250 credit on your next one.

只需访问 linkedin.com/mbd。

Just go to linkedin.com/mbd.

那就是 linkedin.com/mbd。

That's linkedin.com/mbd.

条款和条件仅适用于LinkedIn广告。

Terms and conditions apply only on LinkedIn ads.

早上好，Brew Daily Show。

Good morning, Brew Daily Show.

我是尼尔·弗莱曼。

I'm Neil Fryman.

我是托比·霍威尔。

And I'm Toby Howell.

今天，聊聊为什么Gmail将不再一样。

Today, why Gmail will never be the same.

那你会让Chet GPT当你的医生吗？

Then would you let Chet GPT be your doctor?

今天是1月9日，星期五。

It's Friday, January 9.

让我们开始吧。

Let's ride.

早上好，周五快乐。

Good morning, and happy Friday.

所以，散户投资者有几个流传的笑话，比如把南希·佩洛西的股票投资组合与逆向克雷默指数对比，或者押注与CNBC的吉姆·克雷默建议买入的标的完全相反的股票。

So retail investors have a couple of running jokes, like pitting Nancy Pelosi's stock portfolio against the inverse Kramer or betting on the opposite of whatever CNBC's Jim Kramer suggests you buy.

2025年的结果出来了。

And the 2025 results are in.

令人震惊。

It's a shocker.

去年，逆向克雷默指数以60%的涨幅大幅超越佩洛西的25%。

Last year, the inverse Kramer index trounced Pelosi with a gain of 60% compared to just 25%.

这意味着，如果你听了吉姆·克雷默的建议，然后反其道而行之，你的收益将接近标普500指数的四倍。

That means you would have crushed the S and P 500 by nearly four times if you had listened to Jim Kramer and just flipped the script.

佩洛西终于被推下王座。

Pelosi finally dethroned.

尽管如此，她仍然是去年国会中最差的交易员之一。

Still, she was far from the worst trader in congress this past year.

‘异常鲸鱼’账户编制了一份国会股票交易报告，以了解我们民选官员在市场中的表现。

The ex account unusual whales put together a congressional stock trading report to see how our elected officials fared in the market.

共和党人战胜了民主党人。

Republicans beat Democrats.

共和党人今年上涨了17.3%。

Republicans were up 17.3% in the year.

民主党人上涨了14.4%。

Democrats up 14.4%.

佩洛西的业绩处于垫底的三分之一行列。

Pelosi was in kind of the bottom third of the pack.

但我必须特别提到来自德克萨斯州的国会议员奇普·罗伊。

But I have to shout out representative Chip Roy from Texas.

他竟然亏损了59%，这在市场整体上涨近17%的年份里是极其困难的。

He somehow managed a 59% loss, which is extremely hard to do in a year where the market gained nearly 17.

我希望明年能看到克莱默对阵奇普·罗伊。

I wanna see Kramer versus Chip Roy next year.

这将真正告诉我们谁是最佳或最差的股票选择者。

That will really tell us who is the best or the worst stock picker.

接下来是我们的赞助商Rubrik的广告。

And now a word from our sponsor, Rubrik.

尼尔，每部科幻电影都有外星人即兴发挥的那一刻，相信我，如果你不盯着，你的真实AI代理也会这么做。

Neil, every sci fi movie has that moment when the alien decides to improvise, and trust me, your real AI agents can do the same thing if you're not watching.

它们可以迅速行动，在你意识到不对劲之前造成十倍的破坏。

They can move fast and create 10 times the damage before you even realize something's off.

这就是我不怎么看科幻片的原因。

And that is why I don't watch a lot of sci fi.

但在这种情况下，Rubrik Agent Cloud解决了这个问题。

But in that case, Rubrik Agent Cloud fixes that.

它是唯一一个让你能够监控、管理和回滚代理所采取的每一项操作的平台。

It's the only platform that lets you monitor, govern, and rewind every action your agents take.

你可以获得完全的可视性。

You get full visibility.

你可以设置安全护栏，量化风险，如果出现问题，只需几分钟就能回滚，就像剪掉一段糟糕的镜头一样。

You can set guardrails, quantify risk, and if something breaks, you rewind it in minutes like editing out a bad scene.

医院和银行已经在使用它，因为它们无法承受一个失控的AI剧情转折。

Hospitals and banks already use it because they can't afford a rogue AI plot twist.

如果你的业务依赖于AI代理，你就需要能够监控、管理和回滚它们的操作。

If your business relies on AI agents, you need the ability to monitor, govern, and rewind their actions.

目前，我们的听众可以独家提前访问Rubrik Agent Cloud。

Right now, our listeners get exclusive early access to Rubrik Agent Cloud.

前往 rubrik.com。

Head to rubrik.com.

那就是 rubrik.com，rubrik.com。

That's rubrik.com, rubrik.com.

今天，华尔街可能迎来剧烈波动，两项关键事件将决定你的投资组合是沉是浮。

Today could bring fireworks to Wall Street with two pivotal events deciding whether your portfolio sinks or swims.

首先，最高法院今天上午可能就特朗普总统的关税作出裁决，可能要求政府向已支付关税的公司退还1500亿美元。

First, the supreme court could rule on president Trump's tariffs this morning, potentially requiring the government to refund $150,000,000,000 to companies that have paid them.

这将是一次前所未有的举措，给美国经济带来一个巨大的意外打击。

It'd be an unprecedented undertaking that throws a very zero level curveball into The US economy.

有一点需要注意：我们知道最高法院今天安排为发布意见日，意味着他们将在上午10点开始公布案件裁决，但他们不会提前透露具体是哪些案件。

One caveat, we know that the supreme court scheduled today as an opinion day, meaning that they're going to release opinions on cases beginning at 10AM, but they don't reveal which cases they'll be disclosing.

然而，考虑到关税问题的快速审理程序以及其对经济的极高重要性，今天公布裁决的可能性很大。

However, given the fast track status of the tariff question and the remarkably high stakes for the economy, there's a good chance it'll drop today.

请记住，这个案件涉及《国际紧急经济权力法》下的关税问题，去年特朗普援引该法案对数十个国家实施了对等关税，并对加拿大、墨西哥和中国征收了特定关税。

Remember, this case concerns tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which last year Trump invoked to slap reciprocal tariffs on dozens of countries and specific tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China.

几家小企业起诉政府，声称《国际紧急经济权力法》并未赋予总统征收关税的权力。

Several small businesses sued the government, claiming that the IEEPA does not grant a president tariff authority.

在今年11月最高法院的听证会上，大法官们似乎倾向于支持这些企业。

And in November arguments at the supreme court, the justices seemed to side with the businesses.

托比，你收到过的最大一笔退款是多少？是不是1500亿美元？

Toby, what's the biggest refund you've ever gotten, and was it $150,000,000,000?

还没达到那么大的规模，但我曾经为一份Uber Eats订单争取退款，最后确实拿到了，那种感觉真的很爽。

Not quite the the scale of that, but I once fought an Uber Eats order and did get a refund, and that felt pretty dang good.

即使我们今天如预期那样获得裁决，我们可能仍要在这场循环中徘徊一段时间，因为最高法院很可能会将退款问题发回下级法院处理。

We could be on this merry-go-round for a while even if we do get a decision today like expected because the Supreme Court likely will kick the refund question down to the lower court.

所以即使他们说：‘没错，这是非法的。’

So even if they say, yeah, this was an illegal.

特朗普，你不能这么做，当涉及到真正把钱退给所有那些处于关税另一端的企业和人们时，这可能是下级法院需要处理的问题。

You cannot do this, Trump, when it comes to actually giving the money back to all the people, all the businesses that, you know, were on the other end of the tariff side of things, that might be a question that the lower court's gonna have to deal with.

这就像是我去找Uber Eats的客服，你得去走下级法院的客服流程。

So it it's like me going through customer service of Uber Eats, you're gonna have to go through the customer service of the lower courts.

我认为这场闹剧才刚刚开始，因为已经有超过1000家公司，包括Costco这样的巨头，起诉政府要求获得潜在的退款权利。

And I think the circus is just beginning because already more than 1,000 companies, including giants like Costco, have sued the government for their rights to potential refunds.

他们希望排在最前面，万一关税被推翻，而下级法院裁定：‘没错，美国政府，你们现在必须向自二月以来缴纳关税的所有公司退还1500亿美元。’

They wanna be at the front of the line in case the tariffs are struck down and say a lower court says, yeah, US government, you have to now disperse a $150,000,000,000 to all the companies that have paid the tariffs since beginning in February.

因此，目前还存在一种次级诉讼局面，企业们正争相抢占优先位置，确保自己能拿到退款，但这并非板上钉钉的事。

So there's there's this secondary lawsuit situation that's going on with companies trying to get to the front of the line and making sure that they secure their tariffs because it is not a guarantee.

而这一事件的子情节中的子情节中的子情节是：昨天我们还得到消息，美国的贸易逆差——我们仍在维持的逆差——已缩小至有史以来最小规模。

And then the sub plot to the sub plot to the sub plot of this is that also yesterday, we got news that the trade deficit that The US runs, we're still running a deficit, shrank to its smallest.

这自2009年以来还是第一次。

It's been since 2009.

环比下降了39%。

It was down 39% month over month.

这让经济学家感到意外，因为这表明关税正在发挥其预期作用。

This kinda took economists by surprise because it it shows that tariffs are kinda doing what they're intended.

特朗普希望减少我们进口的商品数量，增加我们出口的商品数量。

They Trump wants to shrink the amount of goods that we are importing and increase the amount of goods we're exporting.

这通常是他的关税议程背后的核心理念。

That is generally kind of the thesis behind his tariff agenda.

我们10月份获得的数据表明，美国10月份出口增长了2.6%，其中很大一部分来自制药行业。

And the data that we got out of October is that US exports were up 2.6% in October, and a lot of it came from the pharmaceutical industry.

如果你具体看制药行业，我们从爱尔兰进口的药品减少了。

If you look at specifically pharma, that is we stopped importing as much pharmaceutical goods from Ireland.

因此，这整个关税最高法院案件的一个有趣背景是，表面上看，关税似乎正在实现其预期目标。

So that is just an interesting subtext to this entire tariff supreme court case is that on the surface, it looks like the tariffs are doing what they are intended to do.

另一个需要关注的事件，将于东部时间上午8:30发布，

The other event that should be on your radar, released at 08:30 a.

即

M.

12月就业报告，该报告不仅将揭示上个月的就业状况，还将反映2025年全年的情况。

Eastern Time, is December jobs report, which will not only shed light on the employment situation last month, but also for the entire year of 2025.

经济学家预计这又是一个就业增长疲软的月份，仅增加55,000个岗位，但他们也预测失业率将从4.6%微降至4.5%。

Economists expect it was another weak month for job growth with 55,000 positions added, but they also project the unemployment rate to tick down to 4.5% from 4.6%.

一个更低的数字将成为除疫情期间外几十年来最弱招聘年的恰当收官。

A dower number would be a fitting cap to the weakest hiring year in decades outside of the pandemic.

所以如果你的申请石沉大海，你绝对不是一个人。

So if your applications are falling into the abyss, you are certainly in good company.

2025年总就业增长预计将达到71万，除经济衰退年份外，这将是自2003年以来最差的就业增长表现。

Total job gains for 2025 are on track to come in at 710,000, which with the exception of recession years, would be the worst employment growth since 2003.

天啊，即使在2010年美国仍深陷大金融危机时，经济还增加了更多就业岗位。

Heck, even in 2010 when The US was still mired in the great financial crisis, more jobs were added to the economy.

托比，所有迹象都表明劳动力市场就像二月的湖泊一样冻结了。

Toby, all signs point to the labor market as being frozen over like a great lake in February.

我知道。

I know.

这有点令人担忧，因为到目前为止，我们已经连续三次降息了。

And it's kind of alarming because we are now three straight rate cuts deep at this point.

所以政策制定者显然在试图——这就是为什么你要降息。

So policymakers are clearly trying to you know, that's why you do a rate cut.

你希望刺激劳动力市场。

You want to jump start the labor market.

如果我们再看到一份疲软的报告，话虽如此，但许多经济学家指出，我们仍然受到政府停摆后遗留数据的干扰。

And if we'd have another kind of soft report, that being said, the caveat is a lot of economists say, hey, we're still getting some muddy data as hangover from the government shutdown.

因此，就业增长数据可能存在高估。

So there's been some over counting of payroll growth.

也存在低估的情况。

There's been some under counting.

情况一直很混乱。

There's just been a lot of muddiness.

所以有些人说，我们直到二月才能得到一份真正清晰的报告。

So some are saying that we're not gonna get a truly clean report until February.

这又有点在推迟问题了。

Again, kinda kicking the can down the road a little bit.

但正如你所说，劳动力市场的总体主题仍然是感觉有些停滞。

But as you said, the overall overarching, you know, theme of the labor market has been one that still feels a little stuck.

是的。

Yeah.

我们所知道的是，目前只有两个行业在支撑着劳动力市场，使其保持在正向区域。

What we do know is that there's basically only two industries propping up the the labor market and keeping it in that positive territory.

这两个行业是医疗保健和休闲与酒店业。

And those two industries are health care and leisure and hospitality.

这两个行业占美国全部就业人数的约22%，但在2025年1月至11月期间，它们贡献了总就业增长的84%。

Those two sectors account for about 22% of all employment in The United States, but they made up 84% of the total job gains from January through November 2025.

所以，如果你从事这些行业，你的申请很可能会被收到，甚至可能得到回复。

So if you're in those industries, then it's likely that your applications will be received and maybe you'll even get a response.

但如果你从事任何其他行业，那你实际上正处于招聘低迷期。

But if you're in every any other industry, then you are essentially in a hiring recession.

接下来，Chat Should Be Tea不会让你咳嗽、咳嗽然后说‘啊’，但它正在侵入医生的领域。

Moving on, Chat Should Be Tea isn't going to make you cough, cough, and say ah, but it's encroaching on your doctor's territory.

OpenAI正在推出ChatGPT Health，这是ChatGPT中一个专门用于健康相关问题的更安全、更个性化的标签页。

OpenAI is launching ChatGPT Health, a more secure, personalized tab within ChatGPT specifically for health related questions.

聊天记录将与你的其他查询分开，拥有独立的历史和记忆系统，让你关于大便为何如此异常的问题，不会和工作邮件校对请求混在一起。

Chats will be separated from your other queries with their own history and memory system, keeping your questions about why your poop looks that way from your work email proofreading prompts.

根据OpenAI的说法，ChatGPT Health是基于数据发展而来的。

According to OpenAI, ChatGPT Health came from following the data.

全球每周已有2.3亿人向ChatGPT询问健康与保健相关问题。

230,000,000 people worldwide already ask ChatGPT Health Wellness questions each week.

在医疗资源匮乏的农村地区，这种需求尤为突出，每周发送的医疗相关消息接近60万条。

Interest is especially prominent in underserved rural communities where nearly 600,000 health care related messages are sent per week.

该公司还认为，人工智能特别适合处理大量健康数据，这是时间紧迫的临床医生无法做到的，因为人工智能可以7x24小时工作，并能综合多年的健康记录。

The company also thinks AI is particularly well suited to the task of sorting through tons of health data in a way a time crunched human clinician can't because it's available 20 four seven and can synthesize years of health records.

但也有隐私倡导者表示反对，不建议将你的医疗数据交给一家人工智能公司。

But there's also been some pushback from privacy advocates who recommend against turning your healthcare data over to an AI company.

尼尔，OpenAI试图进入医疗领域并不令人意外，毕竟已经有这么多人把它当作准医生了。

Neil, not surprising that OpenAI is looking to establish itself in the healthcare space considering how many people are already treating it as their quasi doctor.

而且这是美国最大的行业。

And it's the biggest industry in The United States.

它占了美国GDP的约20%，所以不仅仅是OpenAI这家科技公司想进入这个领域。

It accounts for like 20% of all GDP so it's not just OpenAI, the tech company that's trying to get into this space.

谷歌、苹果，整个科技行业都在试图分一杯医疗市场的羹。

There's Google, Apple, everybody in the tech sector is trying to get a slice of the healthcare pie.

是的，这里对ChatGPT是否应该提供医疗建议存在巨大疑问。

Yes, there are huge questions here for ChatGPT and whether it should be offering you medical advice.

你提到了隐私问题，但还有一个事实是，这些系统仍然会幻觉，它们毕竟不是人类医生。

You mentioned the privacy questions, but there's also just the fact that these things still hallucinate and they're not human doctors.

它们是在互联网上训练的，并没有真正上过医学院。

They have been trained on the Internet and they haven't necessarily gone to medical school.

今年八月，这些医生发布了一份报告，讲述了一名男子因 allegedly 采纳了 Chad GBT 的建议，用溴化钠替代饮食中的盐，结果住院数周，患上了一种十八世纪的医学病症。

In August, these doctors published a report about a man who was hospitalized for weeks with an eighteenth century medical condition after allegedly taking Chad GBT's advice to replace salt in his diet with sodium bromide.

OpenAI 已经正视这些批评，表示已与超过 260 名医生合作，针对 30 个重点领域处理了超过 60 万次模型输出，并指出通过将 ChatGPT Health 与通用版 ChatGPT 隔离，我们能提供更准确的答案，因为人们确实在向我们提问，这是事实，所以我们才更加投入。

OpenAI has taken these criticisms to her and said that it worked with over two sixty physicians, worked on more than 600,000 model outputs over 30 areas of focus, and said that actually by sandboxing ChatGPT Health away from broader ChatGPT, we're gonna deliver you more accurate answers because people are asking us questions, and that's a fact, so that's why we're leaning in.

它试图在两者之间找到平衡，声称：嘿，我们提供的并不是临床建议。

It's trying to thread the needle here and say that, hey, this is not clinical advice that we're giving you.

希望你能把它看作是一种辅助工具，帮助你更好地理解自己的健康状况。

Hopefully you see it as just a supportive thing that helps you understand your health a little bit better.

因此，他们表示你可以将最新的检查结果输入系统，它或许能以更易理解的方式为你解读，因为医疗检查结果有时确实难以理解。

So they say you can feed it your latest test results and maybe it can break it down in a way that's more palatable because medical test results are difficult to understand sometimes.

它们可以帮助你为看医生做准备。

They can help prepare you for doctor's appointments.

它们可以提供饮食和锻炼建议。

They can give you diet and workout guidance.

再次强调，这些内容并不旨在提供明确的建议，或告诉你应该如何管理自己的健康。

Again, none of this is supposed to be necessarily prescriptive or saying this is what you should be doing for your health.

它们的目的不是诊断或提供治疗，而是帮助你走好自己的医疗旅程。

They are not trying to diagnose or not trying to offer treatment, but they are trying to help you along your medical journey.

但这确实是一条危险的滑坡，正如我们看到的那个使用溴化钠的人，它可能迅速导致现实中的健康后果——毕竟，你为什么不听聊天机器人的建议呢？

That is a slippery slope though because as we saw with the guy with the sodium bromide, it can very quickly lead to real world health outcomes because why wouldn't you listen to your chatbot?

它本应是你能够信任的东西。

That's what it's supposed to be something that you can trust.

它本应是你能够依赖的东西。

It's supposed to be something that you can rely on.

但在健康问题上，情况就变得模糊不清了。

It gets murky when it comes to health.

是的。

Yeah.

但我们九月份要参加一场跑步比赛。

But we're running a race in September.

我们遵循的是哪个训练计划？

And what training plan are we following?

我们的朋友发给我们一个非常详细的训练计划。

Our friends sent us a big training plan that's very detailed.

这个训练计划是谁写的？

Who wrote the training plan?

Chat GPT。

Chat GPT.

我的意思是，当它说‘这个周末跑10英里’的时候，我不会完全不听它的，但我也不会听，因为我不想跑那么远。

I mean, I'm not going to not listen to it when it says well, maybe I won't listen to it because it says go run 10 miles this weekend.

我其实不想跑那么远，所以我不听你的，Chat GPT。

I don't really wanna do that, so I'm not listening to you, Chat GPT.

好吧。

Alright.

继续。

Moving on.

谷歌正在将其AI广泛应用于人们的日常生活中，有些人对此并不高兴。

Google's getting its AI all up in people's grills, and some are not happy.

昨天，谷歌宣布在Gmail收件箱中推出由Gemini驱动的新AI功能，默认开启，用户若不希望使用则必须主动关闭。

Yesterday, Google announced the rollout of a new Gemini powered AI features inside your Gmail inbox that will be on by default, meaning users must opt out if they don't want them.

考虑到Gmail拥有30亿用户，这一举措引发了不少争议。

Given that Gmail has 3,000,000,000 users, this is ruffling some feathers.

面向普通用户的新功能包括AI生成的邮件线程摘要，帮你快速了解你叔叔那条包含77条信息的梗邮件链到底想表达什么。

Some of the new features available to consumer users will be AI generated thread summaries, which gives you the gist of what your uncle's 77 message meme email chain is trying to convey.

它还会在你无言以对时建议回复内容，并学习你的写作风格，实时提供个性化建议。

It will also suggest replies if you're left speechless, learning your writing style in order to make real time suggestions.

但最大的变化在于全新的AI收件箱视图，它取代了你习惯的传统列表样式。

But the biggest shift comes in the form of an AI inbox view, which replaces the traditional list style you're used to.

谷歌认为，这将为你的邮件提供更丰富的上下文概览：Gemini会建议你待办事项，突出你需要跟进的话题，并总结邮件中的主题趋势。

Google thinks it will add more contextual overview to your messages where Gemini suggests to do items, surfaces topics you should follow-up on, and summarizes themes across your emails.

其目标是将Gmail转变为你日常生活中的每日操作系统。

The idea is to turn Gmail into a daily operating system for your life.

但当你干涉人们的收件箱时，肯定会引发反弹，尤其是在隐私方面。

But when you mess with people's inboxes, you're gonna get some pushback mainly on the privacy front.

在隐私版块上，一篇获得2000个赞的帖子抱怨Gemini扫描并分析你收到的每一封邮件，而这一功能再次对所有用户默认开启。

A post that garnered 2,000 upvotes on the privacy subreddit complains about Gemini scanning and analyzing every email you receive, a feature that was once again automatically enabled for all users.

尼尔，所有这些功能都可以在你账户的智能功能部分中关闭，但将AI深度融入人们的日常工作流程，这仍然是一个全新的领域。

Neil, all these features have the ability to be toggled off in your settings under the smart feature section on your account, But still, this is a new frontier when it comes to enmeshing AI in people's daily workflows.

我理解人们对AI在创意艺术、电影和音乐方面的批评。

I understand AI criticisms when it comes to things like the creative arts and movies and music.

但说到邮件，有人真的对现在收件箱的样子感到满意吗？

But when it comes to email, is anyone actually satisfied with how their inbox looks right now?

我的意思是，这简直一团糟。

I mean it is an absolute mess.

我认识的几乎没人有良好的邮件管理习惯，也没人会说：‘是的，我喜欢我的Gmail设置，我的邮件一切都井井有条。’

I know very few people that have good email hygiene and no one would say that yeah I love the way my Gmail is set up and yeah I have everything under control in my email.

它已经失控了。

It's out of control.

因此，我本人对AI工具持乐观和希望的态度，我会使用任何能帮助我整理邮件的工具。

So I, for one, am optimistic and hopeful that AI tools, I will use any tool that can help me organize my email.

我的收件箱里堆积了十年到十五年的垃圾邮件。

There is ten to fifteen years of crap sitting in my inbox.

这些邮件很难查找。

It's very hard to access.

现在的搜索功能并不好用。

The search feature isn't great now.

所以，如果我能通过一个更像AI概览的界面输入内容，它就能帮我从收件箱里的垃圾信息中提取出有用的数据，那我完全支持。

So if I could type in something to a more AI overview type of interface and it will help me actually get useful data from garbage collecting in my inbox, then I'm all for it.

从你刚才的话来看，我猜你不是‘收件箱零邮件’派的，甚至看我一眼就知道我也是个彻底的乱糟糟。

I I take it you're not an inbox zero guy from from what you just said, or even looking over my shoulder because I'm an abject disaster.

我是收件箱27,267封邮件派的。

I'm an inbox 27,267

这事儿上热搜了。

that up on air.

这还不错。

That was pretty good.

我要说，你提出的用更对话式的方式搜索收件箱的想法，正是谷歌在此强调的主要功能之一，因为他们在演示中举的例子是：‘去年给我报价的那个水管工是谁？’

I will say that your your idea about having a more conversational approach to searching your inbox is something that Google is highlighting as a primary feature here because the example that they gave in their demo was who was that plumber that gave me a quote last year?

如果你现在搜索这个，可能会得到一些随机的水管工结果，因为系统只是基于关键词索引。

If you search that right now, you would probably get some random plumber hit, like, because it's just looking it's just keyword indexing.

现在它有了更多的上下文。

Now it has a lot more con context.

这种情况经常发生在我身上。

Now this happens to me all the time.

比如，如果我在搜索你转发给我的餐厅预订信息，我输入‘Neil Fryman’，我会收到七年来的Morning Brew邮件，因为你的名字出现在所有这些邮件里。

Like, if I'm searching for a restaurant reservation that you forward to me and I type in Neil Fryman in my inbox, I'm gonna get seven years of Morning Brew emails because your name is on all of those.

现在，它在这方面有了些许改进。

Instead, now it has a little bit more of that.

总体而言，体验更好了。

It's just a better experience in general.

所以我认为，就搜索而言，讽刺的是，这正是谷歌最需要改进的地方，而现在看来他们确实在改进。

So I do think when it comes to search, ironically, that is where Google had the biggest place to improve, and now it looks like they are improving.

你说得对。

You're right.

不过，执行也很重要。

That execution matters, though.

这可能会给人们带来更多的工作，甚至让人不堪重负。

This could create even more work for people and could overwhelm people.

因此，我会说执行真的很重要，因为它也可能只是导致工作杂乱，这是我们过去经常讨论的一个大问题——人们依赖人工智能，却给他人制造了更多工作。

So I would say execution really matters because it could also just lead to work slop, which is a big topic that we've talked about in the past where people are relying on AI and just creating more work for others.

好的。

All right.

我们先短暂休息一下，回来后聊聊我们本周的股票和狗狗。

We're going to take a quick break and come back with our stock of the week and dog of the week.

尼尔，我的早晨习惯通过在 Public 上查看投资组合得到了很大改善。

Neil, my morning routine got a lot better just by checking my portfolio on public.

我也是。

Same.

在 Public 上，你可以构建一个包含股票、债券、期权、加密货币以及现在新增的生成式资产的多资产投资组合，这些资产能让你借助 AI 将任何想法转化为可投资的指数。

On public, you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto, and now generated assets, which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with AI.

从拥有高自由现金流的可再生能源公司，到年收入增长 20% 的半导体供应商，你只需输入任何提示，就能让 AI 为你工作。

From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue 20% year over year, you can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work.

然后你只需点击几下即可投资。

Then you can invest in a few clicks.

生成式资产就像拥有无限可能的 ETF。

Generated assets are like ETFs with infinite possibilities.

前往 public.com/morningbrew 开始使用，当你转移投资组合时，可获得无上限的 1% 奖励。

Get started at public.com/morningbrew and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio.

网址是 public.com/morningbrew。

That's public.com/morningbrew.

由 Public Investing 赞助。

Paid for by Public Investing.

完整披露见播客描述。

Full disclosures in podcast description.

欢迎来到‘本周股票’、‘本周狗股’环节，特比和我将分别挑选一只睡前必读的股票和一只在TikTok上无脑刷屏的股票。

Welcome to stock of the week, dog of the week, the segment where Toby and I pick one stock that always reads before bed and another that mindlessly scrolls on TikTok.

我在节目前的飞镖比赛中以九镖全中获胜，所以我先来。

I won the preshow darts game with a nine dart finish, so I get to go first.

我选的本周股票是闪迪。

My stock of the week is SanDisk.

该公司是2025年标普500指数中表现最佳的股票，并且在新的一年里依然保持强势。

The company was the S and P five hundred's top performer in 2025, and it hasn't lost a step in the new year.

由于市场对AI存储组件制造商的炒作持续升温，闪迪的股价本周飙升了36%。

Shares of SanDisk has shot up 36% this week as the hype continues to build around the makers of memory and storage components for AI.

如果你把英伟达看作是AI淘金热中的铲子供应商，那么闪迪及其同类公司就是刀片和手柄的供应商。

If you think of NVIDIA as selling the shovels for the AI Gold Rush, then call SanDisk and its cohort the sellers of blades and handles.

这是华尔街最热门的AI交易，刚刚获得了最重要玩家的认可。

It's the hottest AI trade on Wall Street that just got a stamp of approval from the most important player.

在周一的CES展会上，英伟达的黄仁勋强调了内存对于数据存储的重要性，这推动了本周的股价上涨。

At CES on Monday, NVIDIA's Jensen Huang emphasized the importance of memory for storing data, helping spark this week's rally.

他说，就存储而言，今天这还是一个完全未被满足的市场。

He said for storage, this is a completely unserved market today.

这是一个此前从未存在过的市场，而这个市场很可能会成为全球最大的存储市场，基本上承载着全球人工智能的运行内存。

This is a market that never existed, and this market will likely be the largest storage market in the world, basically holding the working memory of the world's AIs.

而受益的并不仅仅是一家公司。

And it's not just one company that stands to benefit.

尽管SanDisk在2025年股价涨幅超过500%，其同行西部数据和希捷的股价也都翻了三倍，并在新年伊始大幅上涨。

While SanDisk grows more than 500% in 2025, its peers Western Digital and Seagate both tripled and are up big to start the new year.

托比，随着最大的科技公司似乎已被投资者充分挖掘，投资者正深入AI供应链寻求更好的回报，他们认为数字存储将大有可为。

Toby, with the biggest tech companies seemingly picked over already, investors are going deeper down the AI supply chain for better returns, and they think digital storage is going to be huge.

这对我来说，也对很多人来说，是一个令人困惑的‘本周股票’，因为当你听到SanDisk时，你会想到什么？

This was a confusing, you know, stock of the week for me and a lot of people because when you hear SanDisk, what do you think of?

你会想到那个插进电脑里的小U盘。

You think of the little USB drive that goes into your computer.

你可能会想到相机里用的芯片，但存储的范畴远不止那些小小的微型USB设备。

You think of maybe the chips that go into your cameras, but storage is goes a lot deeper than just, you know, the the little micro USB.

而且它与整个AI产业链息息相关。

And it feeds into the AI trade in general.

我一直在想，SanDisk到底在AI技术栈中处于什么位置。

I was trying to figure out where does Sandisk exactly fit into the sack into the AI stack.

如果你把DRAM（动态随机存取存储器）看作一种非常重要但短期的存储介质的话。

And if you think of DRAM, which is dynamic RAM memory as something that is very important, but very short term.

它就像你的短期记忆。

So it's kinda like your short term memory.

SanDisk则提供了一些更长期的存储，为这些AI模型提供它们需要的长期上下文，以便找到你想要的答案。

SanDisk helps provide some of the more long term memory, the long term context that these AI models need to fetch the answers that you're looking for.

它本质上是大脑的其余部分。

It's the rest of the brain essentially.

正如Jensen Huang所说，顺便说一句，SanDisk该请他喝杯啤酒了，因为正是他的这些言论让股价在过去几天飙升。

And as Jensen Huang said, which by the way, Sandus needs to buy him a beer because it absolutely made this his comments were what made the stock jump the last few days.

他说，目前这种情况正面临巨大的短缺。

He's saying that it's just right now there's a massive crunch for that.

我们需要更多的这种资源。

We need more of that.

所以我们需要整个系统更多的‘大脑’。

So we need more brains of the entire operation.

我们需要更多的长期记忆，而不仅仅是眼下备受关注的DRAM。

We need more long term memory rather than just see this DRAM that's been also a very buzzy trade.

谈到内存，你就不能不提一家公司，那就是三星。

And you can't talk about memory with talking about one company, which is Samsung.

三星是全球最大的内存芯片制造商。

Samsung is the world's largest memory chip maker.

它在周四公布了财报。

It reported earnings on Thursday.

其利润增长了三倍以上，创下历史新高，其股价在2025年已经翻了一倍，本月又大幅上涨。

Its profit more than tripled to a record high, and its shares have been have been doubling in 2025, and they're up big again this month.

我这周的倒霉公司是萨克斯全球，因为它破产的速度比你念完‘伯格多夫·古德曼’还要快。

My dog of the week is Saks Global because it's spiraling towards bankruptcy faster than you can say Bergdorf Goodman.

萨克斯的问题可以追溯到2024年的一笔27亿美元交易，该交易将萨克斯第五大道和尼曼 Marcus 合并成一家奢侈品百货巨头。

Saks problems stem back to 2024 in a $2,700,000,000 deal that brought Saks Fifth Avenue and Neiman Marcus together to form a luxury department store behemoth.

自那以后，一切都不顺。

Since then, nothing has gone right.

销售额令人失望，债券持有人对萨克斯偿还这笔巨额债务的能力从担忧变成了彻底绝望。

Sales have been disappointing, and bondholders have gone from nervous to downright distraught over Saks' ability to pay back the massive debt it took on to complete the deal.

上周，彭博社报道称，萨克斯全球未能支付原定于年底到期的1亿美元利息，这意味着申请第11章破产保护的可能性越来越大。

Last week, Bloomberg reported that Sachs Global missed a $100,000,000 interest payment that was due at the end of the year, meaning a chapter 11 bankruptcy filing looks increasingly likely.

这场巨型并购背后腐烂的核心，是决定不按正常条款支付供应商款项。

At the core of the rotten onion that was this mega merger was a decision to not pay vendors on normal terms.

大多数品牌会向零售商发货，而零售商则承诺在60天、90天，有时甚至120天后付款。

Most brands send retailers merchandise and the retailer promises to pay them back in sixty, ninety, or even a hundred and twenty days sometimes.

但在2023年，萨克斯决定将供应商付款周期延长至12个月，试图为自己争取更多财务灵活性以应对巨额债务。

But in 2023, Saks decided instead to stretch vendor payments over twelve months to try and buy themselves more financial flexibility to deal with their massive debt load.

零售商们说：‘这算什么？’

Retailers said, what the heck?

我不会再以这样的条件给你发货了，许多供应商甚至起诉将Saks告上法庭。

I'm not sending you anything anymore on those terms, and many actually sued to take Saks to court.

这局面比尼尔在试衣间里找一条合身的卡其裤还要混乱，让这些标志性品牌濒临破产。

It turned into a messier situation than a dressing room after Neil tries to find some khakis that fit him, and it's left the iconic names on the brink of bankruptcy.

在Saks全球故事中，关键人物是理查德·贝克。

The name to know in the Sachs global story is Richard Baker.

理查德·贝克原本是个房地产从业者。

Now Richard Baker is a former real estate guy.

他并没有太多零售业经验，但他是大型房地产大亨，也是Saks Global的执行董事长。

Didn't have a lot of experience in retail, but he's a big real estate mogul, and he is the executive chairman of Saks Global.

他是这笔交易的幕后策划者。

He was the mastermind behind this deal.

几十年来，他一直试图将这些奢侈品店整合在一起，包括萨克斯第五大道、尼曼 Marcus 和伯格多夫·古德曼。

He's been trying to do this for decades, trying to bring this luxury stores all together with Saks Fifth Avenue and Neiman Marcus and Bergdorf Goodman.

他终于在2024年实现了这一目标，但这是近年来最糟糕的企业联姻之一。

And he made it finally happen in 2024, and it's been one of the worst corporate marriages in recent history.

这是一场完全不成功的包办婚姻。

It's an arranged marriage that absolutely did not work out.

萨克斯第二季度的收入同比下降13%至16亿美元。

Saks second quarter revenue fell 13% year over year to 1,600,000,000.0.

是的，百货商店一直处境艰难，但萨克斯的竞争对手实际上表现不错，并正在抢占其市场份额。

And yes, department stores have had a tough go at it of it, but the Saks' rivals are actually doing pretty good and taking its market share.

看看布卢明代尔。

Look at Bloomingdale's.

它的可比销售额在2025年增长了近9%，而诺德斯特龙也实现了复苏，增长了4.1%。

Its comparable sales were up almost 9% in the 2025, and Nordstrom's has this comeback as well, up 4.1%.

这些公司都在投资门店，而贝克在萨克斯全球却并未如此作为。

And those companies are investing in their stores and doing things that that Baker at Saks Global is not doing.

他依赖财务操作和其他手段，而非投资门店，试图让这场企业联姻成功，但并未奏效。

He's relying on financial engineering and different things besides investing in these stores in order to to make this this this corporate arrangement work out, but it has not.

是的。

Yeah.

贝克还采取了一些过于吝啬的措施，这完全不符合奢侈品牌的形象。

Baker has kind of engaged in some penny pinching too that just doesn't reflect well on a luxury brand in general.

2024年，萨克斯第五大道为了节省成本，取消了第五大道著名的节日灯饰秀。

In 2024, Saks Fifth Avenue actually canceled their famous holiday light show on 5th Ave in order to save costs.

如果你说我们连开灯的钱都付不起，因为我们背负着巨额债务，还做出了这么多糟糕的财务决策，这传递的可不是正确的信息。

That does not give the right message if you're saying we can't even afford to turn the lights on because we have so much, you know, debt and we're ladled with so much, you know, poor financial decisions.

零售业的一个事实是，如果供应商说‘我不想再供货给你了’，那你也就没什么可卖的了。

And it just is a fact of retail that if your, you know, vendors say, I don't wanna give you goods anymore, you have nothing to sell.

所以，他们决定拖延付款周期——顺便说一句，这种做法也体现在他们处理客户退货的方式上。

So that decision to say, we're gonna take a long time to pay you back, which is by the way, decision that was also reflected in how they started to handle customer returns.

他们开始延长退款时间，只为手头能多留些现金。

They started to draw out the amount of time it took to actually give you your money back because they wanted to have more cash on hand.

他们做的所有事情，除了真正解决核心问题——即改善门店、让它们成为购买奢侈品的更好场所——之外，全都是徒劳。

So they've been doing everything except for actually addressing the core problem, which is making their stores better, making them a better place to shop for luxury goods.

最后一点，如果你持有美国运通白金卡，你每年要支付895美元。

Final note on this is if you have an American Express Platinum card, you're paying $895 for.

但实际上，你每年可以在萨克斯百货获得两次50美元的优惠券。

Well, you actually have a $50 credit at Saks twice a year.

因此，《彭博社》报道了所有这些白金卡持卡人正在争分夺秒地在萨克斯可能申请破产前使用这笔优惠，因为一旦企业申请破产，你从法律上并不一定要兑现礼品卡。

So Bloomberg wrote about all of these platinum cardholders that are scrambling to to, you know, use this credit at Saks before it potentially files for bankruptcy because you don't technically have to honor gift cards when you file for bankruptcy.

所以，总的来说，没人认为萨克斯会消失。

So anyway, the bottom line here is that no one thinks that Saks is going away.

这些公司仍然会存在，但重大财务重组，甚至可能破产，显然是势在必行的。

These companies are still going to exist, but a major financial restructuring, perhaps bankruptcy is certainly in order.

好吧。

Alright.

让我们快速总结一下最后几条新闻。

Let's sprint to the finish with some final headlines.

好的。

Okay.

我要模仿一下夏姆斯，宣布一笔重磅交易。

I'm gonna channel my inner Shams to announce a blockbuster trade.

这可是发生在企业界最顶层的交易。

This one at the highest rungs of corporate America.

摩根大通将从高盛手中接管苹果的信用卡业务，高盛自2019年以来一直运营这项业务，但表现不佳。

JPMorgan will be taking over Apple's credit card program from Goldman Sachs, who had been running it, not well, since 2019.

这被赞誉为三方共赢的罕见案例。

It's being hailed as a rare win win win situation for all three companies.

对高盛而言，它可以摆脱一项尴尬且耗资70亿美元的消费者贷款失败尝试，从而专注于其核心的企业业务。

For Goldman Sachs, it gets to wash its hands of an embarrassing, expensive, failed push into consumer lending that cost it $7,000,000,000, allowing it to focus on its bread and butter corporate business.

对摩根大通而言，苹果信用卡带来了200亿美元的信用卡贷款业务，以及大量潜在客户，可以向他们推销其他金融产品。

For JPMorgan, the Apple Card brings a $20,000,000,000 book of card loans and a bunch of potential customers it can sell financial products to.

对苹果而言，它将与美国管理最好、规模最大的银行合作，这家银行闭着眼睛都能运营信用卡业务。

And for Apple, it's getting into bed with the best managed, biggest bank in The United States that can run a credit card biz with its eyes closed.

尼科·哈里森应该好好学学。

Nico Harrison should take notes.

摩根大通在这里感到高兴，主要是因为他们从苹果和高盛那里争取到了一些让步，要知道，高盛和苹果之间的合作并不愉快。

JPMorgan is happy here mainly because they did extract a couple of concessions from Apple and Goldman because remember, this was not a happy marriage between Goldman and Apple.

那么，为什么摩根大通如此急于接手这笔贷款业务呢？

So why is JPMorgan so eager to take on this book of loans?

很可能是因为他们获得了相当可观的折扣。

Probably because they got a pretty hefty discount.

据消息人士称，他们在收购苹果信用卡组合时，获得了超过10亿美元的折扣。

Apparently, according to sources, they got a discount of more than $1,000,000,000 when it comes to the Apple Card portfolio.

这能让我做到这一点，能大大改善许多交易的条件。

That can make me do that can sweeten a lot of deals.

比如说，嘿。

Say, hey.

我们拿走十亿美元的折扣就行了。

We'll take we'll just cleave a billion off.

现在你是不是对这笔贷款组合感觉好一点了？

Let's see if you like the book of loans a little bit better now.

最后，周日是金球奖颁奖时刻，莱昂纳多·迪卡普里奥、提莫西·查拉梅、詹妮弗·劳伦斯、艾玛·斯通、迈克尔·B·

Finally, on Sunday, it's Golden Globes time where Leonardo DiCaprio, Timothee Chalamet, Jennifer Lawrence, Emma Stone, Michael B.

乔丹将角逐大小荧幕的至高荣誉。

Jordan, and will vie for big and small screen supremacy.

但有一位最佳女主角提名者不会出席。

But one entrant for best actress will not be attending.

辛西娅·艾莉沃因在《魔法坏女巫》中的表演获得提名，但她正专注于另一场演出，导致日程冲突。

Cynthia Erivo was nominated for her performance in Wicked for Good, but she has another performance on her mind that is causing a scheduling conflict.

她正深入参与《德古拉》现场版的制作，据Arivo称这将导致她无法出席颁奖典礼。

She is deep in development of a live rendition of Dracula that Arivo says will cause her to miss the award ceremony.

你可能会说，她肯定能抽出一个晚上的时间。

Surely, she can steal away for one night, you say.

但要知道，Arivo将一人分饰23角，包括吸血鬼本尊。

But consider Arivo is set to play all 23 characters, including the vampire herself.

Neil，如果让我在这个播客里扮演两个角色，我觉得我都做不到，更别说23个了。

Neil, if I had to play two characters on this podcast, I don't think I could do it, let alone 23.

我以后就用这个当借口了。

I'm totally gonna use this as an excuse going forward.

狗吃了我的作业，这都过时了。

Dog ate my homework is so twentieth century.

二十一世纪的借口是：我没法去了。

Twenty first century is, yeah, I can't make it.

我正忙于在西区出演《德古拉》，扮演23个角色。

I'm I'm busy playing 23 characters in Dracula on the West End.

这理由太离谱了，人们别无选择，只能相信你。

It's so outlandish that people have no choice but to believe you.

她并不是最近唯一一位扮演大量角色的女性或女演员。

She's not the first woman or actress to have played a ton of characters recently.

《继承之战》中的莎拉·斯努克刚在百老汇出演了《道林·格雷的画像》。

Sarah Snook of Succession was just on Broadway in The Picture of Dorian Gray.

她一个人演了全部26个角色。

She played all 26 characters.

所以23个，辛西娅·里沃，算了吧。

So 23 Cynthia Rivo, come on.

我觉得你能表现得更好一点。

I think you can do a little bit better.

我查了下哪些故事或哪些版本的角色最多，于是就搜了《奥德赛》有多少个角色。

I was looking up like which stories or which, you know, renditions would have the most characters, and I just googled The Odyssey to see how many were in that.

《奥德赛》里有120个有名字的角色，这已经很多了。

There's a 120 named characters in The Odyssey, which is a lot of characters.

但如果你开始算上所有的求婚者、整个船员群体的话。

But if you start including, you know, the total amount of suitors, the entire amount of crew.

那总共有950个角色，所以当你扮演的角色数量上升时，这个数字真的能飙升。

It's 950 characters, so you can really start going up the ladder when it comes to the amount of characters you're playing.

好吧。

Alright.

我们的时间到此为止。

That is all the time we have.

非常感谢您与我们共度早晨时光，祝您周五愉快。

Thanks so much for starting your morning with us, and have a wonderful Friday.

如果您想与我们联系，请发送邮件至 morningbrewdaily@morningbrew.com。

If you wanna get in touch, send an email to morningbrewdaily@morningbrew.com.

即使您使用AI来撰写邮件也没关系，或者在Instagram上私信我们@m b daily show。

It's okay if you use AI to write it or DM us on Instagram at m b daily show.

让我们播放片尾字幕。

Let's roll the credits.

艾米莉·米洛隆是我们执行制片人。

Emily Milliron is our executive producer.

雷蒙德·娄是我们制片人。

Raymond Lou is our producer.

我们的助理制片人是奥利维亚·格雷厄姆和奥利维亚·莱克。

Our associate producers are Olivia Graham and Olivia Lake.

至于发型和化妆，别想用辛西娅·埃里沃的借口来搪塞我们。

Hair and makeup, don't even think about using that Cynthia Erivo excuse with us.

德文·埃默里是我们公司的总裁，我们的节目由Morning Brew制作。

Devin Emery is our president, and our show is a production of Morning Brew.

今天节目很棒，尼尔。

Great show today, Neil.

祝你们一切顺利。

I wish you all well.